The by-election betting – a LAB gain and CON hold – politicalbetting.com

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The by-election betting – a LAB gain and CON hold – politicalbetting.com

Selby and Uxbridge take place on July 20th and currently punters think the Tories will hold on in the former but lose the latter which was Johnson’s old seat.

Read the full story here

Pulpstar

I've laid Labour in Selby. Mid Beds could be a voided market..

DougSeal

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

TheScreamingEagles

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

BartholomewRoberts

Edged but didn't carry. Stressful start already.

Nigel_Foremain

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

I'd like to think that Nadine is going down, but that is not a pleasant image.

Sean_F

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

FPT, How far have you got into your research, with both primary and secondary sources?

TheScreamingEagles

On topic I did say on Saturday that Selby feels like a Con hold but have now found out the Tory candidate is pro fracking in the area…,

CorrectHorseBat

I use the nationalised London Underground mostly every day - and it is by far the best rail service I've used in the UK.

BartholomewRoberts

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

eek

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic I did say on Saturday that Selby feels like a Con hold but have now found out the Tory candidate is pro fracking in the area…,

Meet the Chesham and Amersham Tory candidate who thought HS2 was a good idea..

Andy_JS

Prediction: England 420 for 7 at the end of day one.

BartholomewRoberts

Andy_JS said:

Prediction: England 420 for 7 at the end of day one.

Imagine saying that in Boycott's day ...

TheScreamingEagles

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

I'd like to think that Nadine is going down, but that is not a pleasant image.

Here’s a better image.

Hopefully we all find somebody who looks at us the way Nads looks at BJ.

CorrectHorseBat

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

I'd like to think that Nadine is going down, but that is not a pleasant image.

Here’s a better image.

Hopefully we all find somebody who looks at us the way Nads looks at BJ.

She's definitely seen his little Johnson

JosiasJessop

CorrectHorseBat said:

I use the nationalised London Underground mostly every day - and it is by far the best rail service I've used in the UK.

Yes, because the rest of us subsidise you. Your comment is *not* appreciated when our local bus service has just been cut.

TfL has £13 billion of debt. Wizard wheezes like 'fare freezes' don't help.

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

I'd like to think that Nadine is going down, but that is not a pleasant image.

Here’s a better image.

Hopefully we all find somebody who looks at us the way Nads looks at BJ.

So long as it's not Nads.

BartholomewRoberts

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I use the nationalised London Underground mostly every day - and it is by far the best rail service I've used in the UK.

Yes, because the rest of us subsidise you. Your comment is *not* appreciated when our local bus service has just been cut.

TfL has £13 billion of debt. Wizard wheezes like 'fare freezes' don't help.

Imagine if instead of being subsidised rail fares were taxed as much as petrol is.

Pulpstar

BartholomewRoberts said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

Are you sure ?

Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

CorrectHorseBat

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I use the nationalised London Underground mostly every day - and it is by far the best rail service I've used in the UK.

Yes, because the rest of us subsidise you. Your comment is *not* appreciated when our local bus service has just been cut.

TfL has £13 billion of debt. Wizard wheezes like 'fare freezes' don't help.

So what you're saying is that a properly funded public transport system is good for the economy and produces good results?

Let's put the same investment into the rest of the country when we bring those companies back into public ownership. Glad we are on the same page.

And for the record, TfL is only in debt because the Tories made it that way, on purpose.

kinabalu

BartholomewRoberts said:

Andy_JS said:

Prediction: England 420 for 7 at the end of day one.

Imagine saying that in Boycott's day ...

Take a couple of hours to see off the new ball - then start nicking the odd single. Proper cricket.

Nigelb

BartholomewRoberts said:

Andy_JS said:

Prediction: England 420 for 7 at the end of day one.

Imagine saying that in Boycott's day ...

"England scored more off the first seven overs of an Australia first innings than any side since South Africa got off to a flyer at the old Wanderers ground in Johannesburg in 1936."

They're not Lyon around.

numbertwelve

I think they’ll lose both. We’re at the nadir of the government, which is running out of road and is thoroughly expecting a loss at the polls next year. Selby will however go back to the Tory column at the GE.

kinabalu

CorrectHorseBat said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

I'd like to think that Nadine is going down, but that is not a pleasant image.

Here’s a better image.

Hopefully we all find somebody who looks at us the way Nads looks at BJ.

She's definitely seen his little Johnson

It's the look, it's the look ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNEdxZURTaI

Pulpstar

Pulpstar said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

Are you sure ?

Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

Tbh the Nuclear power situation isn't massively different. We just seem to have stopped building stuff after about 1990.

Cookie

It's hard to see the Tories holding any seat at all in current circumstances. They didn't hold a by-election from 1989 to 1997, remember - and even that one in 1989 was in unusual circumstances. (N.B. it rather belatedly strikes me that the current Tory leaders seat is also the seat of the last Tory leader but seven - that must be fairly remarkable, surely?)
But that said, if the Tories were to hold one of these, I think I'd fancy Uxbridge over Selby. My instinct is that the Tories were bobbing around a high water mark in small town provincial England about two years ago and a low water mark in outer Greater London, and swings since then will have been very different.

Malmesbury

BartholomewRoberts said:

JosiasJessop said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

I use the nationalised London Underground mostly every day - and it is by far the best rail service I've used in the UK.

Yes, because the rest of us subsidise you. Your comment is *not* appreciated when our local bus service has just been cut.

TfL has £13 billion of debt. Wizard wheezes like 'fare freezes' don't help.

Imagine if instead of being subsidised rail fares were taxed as much as petrol is.

One entertainment of the electric car revolution is the arguments shifting.

Some years ago, in Wiltshire, a local chap suggested using early Prius saloon cars to start a kind of minimalist bus service. Taxi from a fixed location x times an hour. The idea was that as demand grew, he would provide larger vehicles. The system, would in turn, support running a taxi service. Of which there was little in the area in question.

Apparently the killer argument against this was - "It's not a proper bus".

Despite him proving, mathematically that running this would emit far less CO2 etc than buses, up to a serious capacity level. The only question at higher volumes was availability of vehicles with hybrid power trains. This was quite a while back - that problem has been solved now.

CorrectHorseBat

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

Are you sure ?

Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

Tbh the Nuclear power situation isn't massively different. We just seem to have stopped building stuff after about 1990.

New Labour should have been building those from the start of office. Big mistake

Andy_JS

I was surprised tickets were still available for day 5 last night. Maybe because a lot of people think the match won't go on that long.

Malmesbury

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

Pulpstar said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

Are you sure ?

Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

Tbh the Nuclear power situation isn't massively different. We just seem to have stopped building stuff after about 1990.

New Labour should have been building those from the start of office. Big mistake

New Labour halted a number of infrastructure projects. Particularly roads, but other things as well.

This was to get support from the Green/NIMBY types and move spending to Schools n' Hospitals, while keeping the budget relatively balanced.

That was the core plan under Blair. Brown attempted to move beyond that, but mucked up on what was "infrastructure" and how to fund the spending.

Andy_JS

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Malmesbury

duplicate

CorrectHorseBat

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

Pulpstar

Even though I'm on a Tory hold* for Selby, I think it won't be by much. It'll be the largest swing Labour have achieved this cycle though.**

* (Labour sell)
** Unless the LD machine fires up. See *

Andy_JS

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

Yes. The by-elections could be the Tories' last chance to turn things around. They probably need to hold 2 out of 3 to do that.

Malmesbury

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

Sandpit

Well if we can keep running along at 66/1 per hour, for the next day and a half…

CorrectHorseBat

Andy_JS said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

Yes. The by-elections could be the Tories' last chance to turn things around.

I think despite our political disagreements, we've been closely aligned on what is going on with the polls. Right now the Tories seem like they are in deep trouble.

eek

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

Pulpstar

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

CorrectHorseBat

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.

SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.

eristdoof

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

... or may be the narrowing/reverting is just due to Labour/Con randomly going up down +/- 1 or two points each poll

Malmesbury

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I think Labour majority is definitely firming up. Labour largest party is more nailed on than a thing nailed on with a hydraulic* nail gun.

*A fictional joke thing.

Pulpstar

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.

SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.

If it's 45 - 28 at the next GE he'll be about 430 seats I think.

I expect the gap will be tighter than that.

CorrectHorseBat

Pulpstar said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.

SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.

If it's 45 - 28 at the next GE he'll be about 430 seats I think.

I expect the gap will be tighter than that.

What do you think it will be at the GE? I am thinking 43% for Labour, 28-35 for the Tories?

Malmesbury

Pulpstar said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.

SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.

If it's 45 - 28 at the next GE he'll be about 430 seats I think.

I expect the gap will be tighter than that.

It will be 10%+

The result will come down to vote efficiency and/or tactical anti-Tory voting.

NickyBreakspear

Last time Labour was below 40% in the polls was a 39% by Kantar Public with polling from 22-26 September 2022 - just before the effects of the September Fiscal Event were felt.

That Kantar poll had the Conservatives on 35%. The only time since then the Conservatives have been higher than 32% is 35% with Deltapoll with polling 17-20 March - a clear statistical outlier.

The Lib Dems have not been higher than 13% since September 2022 apart from 16% with Deltapoll with polling on 7 May just after the locals and again likely to be a statistical outlier.

Polling after the May local elections Conservatives are in the range 24-31, Labour 41-51, Lib Dems 9-13 (16).

WhisperingOracle

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

Haha ! Good one.

CorrectHorseBat

Malmesbury said:

It will be 10%+

The result will come down to vote efficiency and/or tactical anti-Tory voting.

Tactical voting is how Keir gets a (large) majority in my view. The Lib Dems seem eager to put him in Downing Street and their supporters seem to feel the same.

Pulpstar

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.

SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.

If it's 45 - 28 at the next GE he'll be about 430 seats I think.

I expect the gap will be tighter than that.

What do you think it will be at the GE? I am thinking 43% for Labour, 28-35 for the Tories?

42 - 32; Lab 370 seats. Tighter gap but more seats for Labour than expected at the gap.

eristdoof

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

Wow Yellow Pages, that takes me back. That was one of the earliest causualties of the internet. I see they still have an internet presence, does anyone still use them? It's probably 20 years since I had any need for it.

Wulfrun_Phil

Pulpstar said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

Are you sure ?

Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

I assume you didn't mean to get that the wrong way around, so I'll repost it for you.

Water was privatised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

eristdoof

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.

SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.

It was a blunt attempt at damage limitation. Saying it will be tricky for Labour to get 450 seats makes a landslide win of 400 seat look disappointing.

Flatlander

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pulpstar said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

Are you sure ?

Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

I assume you didn't mean to get that the wrong way around, so I'll repost it for you.

Water was privatised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

Is this lack of investment, or is it that it is a lot easier to get planning permission as a nationalised industry?

A private company surely couldn't flood out Welsh villages for profit.

Andy_JS

"@SEN_Cricket

WHAT!?

Crawley has got away with one!
Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed!
Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."

#ENGvAUS #Ashes"

https://twitter.com/SEN_Cricket/status/1669664761498439680

Pulpstar

Andy_JS said:

"@SEN_Cricket

WHAT!?

Crawley has got away with one!
Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed!
Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."

#ENGvAUS #Ashes"

https://twitter.com/SEN_Cricket/status/1669664761498439680

Just seen the replay. It's not that AUS didn't review, they didn't even appeal !

Wonder when the last time an edge wasn't appealed was ?

Malmesbury

Flatlander said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Pulpstar said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

Cookie said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.

Nationalise these scum agents

Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?

We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.

Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.

The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.

According to https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/f5a7d56c-cea0-4f00-b159-c3788a3b2b38

we have 5,602,088 Megaliters of large reservoirs.

1 megaliter is 982 tons....

We should be good for a population up to 110 million then.

If it is all usable - which I rather suspect is not. You certainly can't drain a reservoir easily, without damage.

There is also industrial use of water to consider. And location.

I would suspect that most of the issue is that you have the reservoirs for hydroelectric schemes in the "wrong" place.

The issue is our population has grown by 20% in a generation, and how many new reservoirs have been built in that time?

Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.

Are you sure ?

Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

I assume you didn't mean to get that the wrong way around, so I'll repost it for you.

Water was privatised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:

59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s

Is this lack of investment, or is it that it is a lot easier to get planning permission as a nationalised industry?

A private company surely couldn't flood out Welsh villages for profit.

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/the-challenge-of-building-more-reservoirs-to-ensure-uks-water-resilience-01-09-2022/

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/embankment-trial-start-at-havant-thicket-reservoir-site-14-04-2023/?utm_source=Bibblio&utm_medium=Recommendation&utm_campaign=Recommended_Article

seems like a reasonable writeup, without axe grinding.

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/embankment-trial-start-at-havant-thicket-reservoir-site-14-04-2023/?utm_source=Bibblio&utm_medium=Recommendation&utm_campaign=Recommended_Articles

Note the completion date.

Sandpit

Andy_JS said:

"@SEN_Cricket

WHAT!?

Crawley has got away with one!
Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed!
Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."

#ENGvAUS #Ashes"

https://twitter.com/SEN_Cricket/status/1669664761498439680

That was hilarious, no-one noticed the edge at all, until the replay showed it.

OnlyLivingBoy

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

Pulpstar

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

"@SEN_Cricket

WHAT!?

Crawley has got away with one!
Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed!
Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."

#ENGvAUS #Ashes"

https://twitter.com/SEN_Cricket/status/1669664761498439680

That was hilarious, no-one noticed the edge at all, until the replay showed it.

I expect Crawley noticed it

The Umpire may well have noticed it too - but he can't give a decision without an appeal.

Andy_JS

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1669658856559878146

"@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps

🔵 SELBY & AINSTY: the Conservative candidate Michael Naughton has withdrawn because of "an unforeseen family medical emergency". I wish Michael and his family well.
11:51 AM · Jun 16, 2023"

RochdalePioneers

Boris! going to get into trouble over not getting his new Daily Heil columnist gig signed off by the authorities

TOPPING

eristdoof said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

Wow Yellow Pages, that takes me back. That was one of the earliest causualties of the internet. I see they still have an internet presence, does anyone still use them? It's probably 20 years since I had any need for it.

I believe that directory enquiries is still going. All those 118s or has that finished now?

Pulpstar

RochdalePioneers said:

Boris! going to get into trouble over not getting his new Daily Heil columnist gig signed off by the authorities

Does he need to get a column gig signed off by anyone as he's now resigned as an MP ?

Malmesbury

RochdalePioneers said:

Boris! going to get into trouble over not getting his new Daily Heil columnist gig signed off by the authorities

Which authorities? He is out of parliament now, and a private citizen.

RochdalePioneers

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Boris! going to get into trouble over not getting his new Daily Heil columnist gig signed off by the authorities

Does he need to get a column gig signed off by anyone as he's now resigned as an MP ?

Yes. He is bound by the advisory committee on appointments for 12 months or so.

kyf_100

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

I think the Hovis ad is the one that regularly tops the polls. Interesting in what it says about the nation's cultural psyche, harking back to a bygone era, romanticised nostalgia for a simpler past... villages, thatched roof cottages etc.

turbotubbs

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

Maybe. I'd go with the Hovis one on Gold Hill in Shaftesbury.

RochdalePioneers

Andy_JS said:

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1669658856559878146

"@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps

🔵 SELBY & AINSTY: the Conservative candidate Michael Naughton has withdrawn because of "an unforeseen family medical emergency". I wish Michael and his family well.
11:51 AM · Jun 16, 2023"

Is the "unforeseen family emergency" that the party have just spotted his pro-fracking predilections and have realised they would lose with him as the candidate?

turbotubbs

kyf_100 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

I think the Hovis ad is the one that regularly tops the polls. Interesting in what it says about the nation's cultural psyche, harking back to a bygone era, romanticised nostalgia for a simpler past... villages, thatched roof cottages etc.

I always assumed it was in Yorkshire for some reason. Its also an artful con - the views from almost anywhere else on that hill are nothing like!

Pulpstar

RochdalePioneers said:

Pulpstar said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Boris! going to get into trouble over not getting his new Daily Heil columnist gig signed off by the authorities

Does he need to get a column gig signed off by anyone as he's now resigned as an MP ?

Yes. He is bound by the advisory committee on appointments for 12 months or so.

Maybe the new columnist isn't Boris - "erudite" isn't exactly the first word that springs to mind with old Bozza.

Selebian

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic I did say on Saturday that Selby feels like a Con hold but have now found out the Tory candidate is pro fracking in the area…,

I'm not aware of any areas identified for fracking in the constituency at any point (I may be wrong). Would be much more of an issue if local fracking was a live issue I think.

turbotubbs

Malmesbury said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Boris! going to get into trouble over not getting his new Daily Heil columnist gig signed off by the authorities

Which authorities? He is out of parliament now, and a private citizen.

Although at leatt one PB tyrant member would see him unable to earn a living.

Sean_F

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.

I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.

SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.

If it's 45 - 28 at the next GE he'll be about 430 seats I think.

I expect the gap will be tighter than that.

It will be 10%+

The result will come down to vote efficiency and/or tactical anti-Tory voting.

My view is 6-8%, as in 2010.

BartholomewRoberts

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

I don't remember that ad personally.

Its funny though what sticks with you. I was driving the other day when "I'm so excited" came on the radio, which instantly as soon as it started brought to mind the vivid image of a Crunchie as a rollercoaster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUxZZxmaK0k

CorrectHorseBat

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

Dura_Ace

RochdalePioneers said:

Yes. He is bound by the advisory committee on appointments for 12 months or so.

What can they do it about it now they've chucked him out? Fuck all.

He's presumably going to use this column in the gammons' journal of record to cause as much strife as possible for RS. GB News show next...

Malmesbury

BartholomewRoberts said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

I don't remember that ad personally.

Its funny though what sticks with you. I was driving the other day when "I'm so excited" came on the radio, which instantly as soon as it started brought to mind the vivid image of a Crunchie as a rollercoaster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUxZZxmaK0k

Or the time that Levis jeans adverts were practically running the UK music charts.

turbotubbs

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

You are! Its a timeless classic.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Mq59ykPnAE

Also spoofed by the Two Ronnies, but you won't have heard of them either...

CorrectHorseBat

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

You are! Its a timeless classic.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Mq59ykPnAE

Also spoofed by the Two Ronnies, but you won't have heard of them either...

I know who they are but don't find them funny whatsoever.

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

I'd like to think that Nadine is going down, but that is not a pleasant image.

Here’s a better image.

Hopefully we all find somebody who looks at us the way Nads looks at BJ.

Wonder what Carrie makes of Boris and Nadines "friendship" ?

kyf_100

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

Fact of the day: It was directed by Ridley Scott, and I believe it's about 50 years old now.

eristdoof

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

"@SEN_Cricket

WHAT!?

Crawley has got away with one!
Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed!
Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."

#ENGvAUS #Ashes"

https://twitter.com/SEN_Cricket/status/1669664761498439680

That was hilarious, no-one noticed the edge at all, until the replay showed it.

One could argue that if a enge is so slight that only UltraEdge but no fielder notices it then the batsman shouldn't be out anyway. A bit like the ball can graze the wicket but if a bail doesn't drop then it's not out.

eristdoof

kyf_100 said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

Fact of the day: It was directed by Ridley Scott, and I believe it's about 50 years old now.

Ridley Scott directed lots of classic adverts in the 70's. I think the Leonard Rossiter/Joan Collins Cinzano adverts were by him.

TheScreamingEagles

Selebian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic I did say on Saturday that Selby feels like a Con hold but have now found out the Tory candidate is pro fracking in the area…,

I'm not aware of any areas identified for fracking in the constituency at any point (I may be wrong). Would be much more of an issue if local fracking was a live issue I think.

Says here a fifth of the local authority is covered by licences.

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/tory-candidate-for-selby-accused-of-backing-dangerous-fracking-4181625#

Dura_Ace

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DougSeal said:

Surely she can't be holding out for a peerage she isn't going to get?

She’s being a proper Scouser and trying to bring down a Tory PM.

I'd like to think that Nadine is going down, but that is not a pleasant image.

Here’s a better image.

Hopefully we all find somebody who looks at us the way Nads looks at BJ.

She's only just moved her eyes up from his buck knuckle.

Sandpit

Pulpstar said:

Sandpit said:

Andy_JS said:

"@SEN_Cricket

WHAT!?

Crawley has got away with one!
Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed!
Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."

#ENGvAUS #Ashes"

https://twitter.com/SEN_Cricket/status/1669664761498439680

That was hilarious, no-one noticed the edge at all, until the replay showed it.

I expect Crawley noticed it

The Umpire may well have noticed it too - but he can't give a decision without an appeal.

Oh indeed, but given the Aussies usually appeal for anything that comes within a ball’s width of the bat…

GIN1138

eristdoof said:

kyf_100 said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

Fact of the day: It was directed by Ridley Scott, and I believe it's about 50 years old now.

Ridley Scott directed lots of classic adverts in the 70's. I think the Leonard Rossiter/Joan Collins Cinzano adverts were by him.

I think lots of famous directors started in adverts back in the day. It was quite a useful way to get into the industry back then.

Just think our very own @Roger could have been a world famous movie director if fate had panned out slightly differently...

Barnesian

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

Projecting forward to a GE, I would put the Tories on 32%, Labour 0n 39% and LibDems on 15% giving Labour a 64 seat majority.

WhisperingOracle

Nadine also looks a bit like Boris, as does Jennifer Arcuri.

There's definitely something in this idea of people often being more attracted to people who look a bit like themselves, although it doesn't always work that out that way.

Cookie

eristdoof said:

kyf_100 said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

Fact of the day: It was directed by Ridley Scott, and I believe it's about 50 years old now.

Ridley Scott directed lots of classic adverts in the 70's. I think the Leonard Rossiter/Joan Collins Cinzano adverts were by him.

Very different ads.
Good facts, though. Ten points to each of you.

eristdoof

CorrectHorseBat said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

You are! Its a timeless classic.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Mq59ykPnAE

Also spoofed by the Two Ronnies, but you won't have heard of them either...

I know who they are but don't find them funny whatsoever.

The Two Ronnies were wierd. There were some really good sketches, often based around clever word play especially from Barker. The "Four Candles" sketch is a good example of the good side. But they also did loads and loads of dross. Much middle aged toilet humour at a level which could be broadcast before the watershed, and even TSE would be too embarrased to post such weak double entendres. The songs at the end were especially shit.

Not the 9 OClock News took the piss out of the Two Ronnies with Smith playing Barker and Rhys-Jones playing Corbett. Aparently Corbett's reaction was "fair game" but Barker was very insulted by it. I would have expected it the other way round.

GIN1138

WhisperingOracle said:

Nadine also looks a bit like Boris, as does Jennifer Arcuri.

There's definitely something in the idea of people often being attracted to people who look more like themselves, altthough it doesn't always work that out that way.

I think if you go for someone like yourself (either in looks or personality, or both) it will usually end badly as you're likely to clash.

Opposites can attract more IMO... but only if you have the maturity to respect and even embrace and enjoy the differences.

mickydroy

Barnesian said:

Malmesbury said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Andy_JS said:

"@BritainElects

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)

via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"

https://twitter.com/BritainElects

Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?

The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.

The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%

It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.

Projecting forward to a GE, I would put the Tories on 32%, Labour 0n 39% and LibDems on 15% giving Labour a 64 seat majority.

I think that is a much more realistic outcome, as much as I think they deserve to, I cannot see the Torys polling below 30% in the GE

Cookie

turbotubbs said:

kyf_100 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

I think the Hovis ad is the one that regularly tops the polls. Interesting in what it says about the nation's cultural psyche, harking back to a bygone era, romanticised nostalgia for a simpler past... villages, thatched roof cottages etc.

I always assumed it was in Yorkshire for some reason. Its also an artful con - the views from almost anywhere else on that hill are nothing like!

My memory of it - and to be honest, even I'm too young for it (but doesn't that prove the point about its longevity?) is that it was done in Yorkshire accents. I remember being quite surprised when I found out it was filmed in Dorset.

mwadams

eristdoof said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

You are! Its a timeless classic.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Mq59ykPnAE

Also spoofed by the Two Ronnies, but you won't have heard of them either...

I know who they are but don't find them funny whatsoever.

The Two Ronnies were wierd. There were some really good sketches, often based around clever word play especially from Barker. The "Four Candles" sketch is a good example of the good side. But they also did loads and loads of dross. Much middle aged toilet humour at a level which could be broadcast before the watershed, and even TSE would be too embarrased to post such weak double entendres. The songs at the end were especially shit.

Not the 9 OClock News took the piss out of the Two Ronnies with Smith playing Barker and Rhys-Jones playing Corbett. Aparently Corbett's reaction was "fair game" but Barker was very insulted by it. I would have expected it the other way round.

Barker hated the cheap gags. Most of the good stuff, he wrote. So it isn't surprising that he found NtNoCN offensive as it poked at a truth he already knew.

DavidL

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

For mash get smash.
https://youtu.be/U4MTgjNkfyI

eristdoof

DavidL said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

eek said:

"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"

The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?

For mash get smash.

Aaaahhh ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ........

WhisperingOracle

Reports today that Borisozo's new column hasn't been cleared with the Acoba panel on ex-politicians and civil servants.

It might cover the period up to September 2024, which would be amusing if the Mail is hoping to revive the Boris faction's fortunes by then.

Gardenwalker

I thought the Two Ronnies were very funny.

Mexicanpete

kyf_100 said:

CorrectHorseBat said:

Never heard of this Hovis ad, I must be too young

Fact of the day: It was directed by Ridley Scott, and I believe it's about 50 years old now.

...and it was filmed on Gold Hill in Shaftesbury and not the cold desolate North as the ad alludes!