The by-election betting – a LAB gain and CON hold – politicalbetting.com
Selby and Uxbridge take place on July 20th and currently punters think the Tories will hold on in the former but lose the latter which was Johnson’s old seat.
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
Prediction: England 420 for 7 at the end of day one.
Imagine saying that in Boycott's day ...
"England scored more off the first seven overs of an Australia first innings than any side since South Africa got off to a flyer at the old Wanderers ground in Johannesburg in 1936."
I think they’ll lose both. We’re at the nadir of the government, which is running out of road and is thoroughly expecting a loss at the polls next year. Selby will however go back to the Tory column at the GE.
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
It's hard to see the Tories holding any seat at all in current circumstances. They didn't hold a by-election from 1989 to 1997, remember - and even that one in 1989 was in unusual circumstances. (N.B. it rather belatedly strikes me that the current Tory leaders seat is also the seat of the last Tory leader but seven - that must be fairly remarkable, surely?) But that said, if the Tories were to hold one of these, I think I'd fancy Uxbridge over Selby. My instinct is that the Tories were bobbing around a high water mark in small town provincial England about two years ago and a low water mark in outer Greater London, and swings since then will have been very different.
I use the nationalised London Underground mostly every day - and it is by far the best rail service I've used in the UK.
Yes, because the rest of us subsidise you. Your comment is *not* appreciated when our local bus service has just been cut.
TfL has £13 billion of debt. Wizard wheezes like 'fare freezes' don't help.
Imagine if instead of being subsidised rail fares were taxed as much as petrol is.
One entertainment of the electric car revolution is the arguments shifting.
Some years ago, in Wiltshire, a local chap suggested using early Prius saloon cars to start a kind of minimalist bus service. Taxi from a fixed location x times an hour. The idea was that as demand grew, he would provide larger vehicles. The system, would in turn, support running a taxi service. Of which there was little in the area in question.
Apparently the killer argument against this was - "It's not a proper bus".
Despite him proving, mathematically that running this would emit far less CO2 etc than buses, up to a serious capacity level. The only question at higher volumes was availability of vehicles with hybrid power trains. This was quite a while back - that problem has been solved now.
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?
Yes. The by-elections could be the Tories' last chance to turn things around.
I think despite our political disagreements, we've been closely aligned on what is going on with the polls. Right now the Tories seem like they are in deep trouble.
Last time Labour was below 40% in the polls was a 39% by Kantar Public with polling from 22-26 September 2022 - just before the effects of the September Fiscal Event were felt.
That Kantar poll had the Conservatives on 35%. The only time since then the Conservatives have been higher than 32% is 35% with Deltapoll with polling 17-20 March - a clear statistical outlier.
The Lib Dems have not been higher than 13% since September 2022 apart from 16% with Deltapoll with polling on 7 May just after the locals and again likely to be a statistical outlier.
Polling after the May local elections Conservatives are in the range 24-31, Labour 41-51, Lib Dems 9-13 (16).
The result will come down to vote efficiency and/or tactical anti-Tory voting.
Tactical voting is how Keir gets a (large) majority in my view. The Lib Dems seem eager to put him in Downing Street and their supporters seem to feel the same.
"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"
Wow Yellow Pages, that takes me back. That was one of the earliest causualties of the internet. I see they still have an internet presence, does anyone still use them? It's probably 20 years since I had any need for it.
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
Seems so far that whatever narrowing there was, has now reverted?
The polls have been bouncing around these numbers for a while now.
The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%
It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.
I think that's right, 450 seats or so looks tricky for Starmer to me.
I don't think he will be anywhere close to that. He'll be lucky to get 400 IMHO.
SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.
It was a blunt attempt at damage limitation. Saying it will be tricky for Labour to get 450 seats makes a landslide win of 400 seat look disappointing.
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
Crawley has got away with one! Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed! Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."
Crawley has got away with one! Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed! Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."
A hose pipe ban. We are an island surrounded by water.
Nationalise these scum agents
Is there any problem facing the nation that you don't think nationalise is the answer?
We've always had hosepipe bans. Its a feature of inconsistent rainfall AND a failure to have enough capacity for the increased demand. There is no doubt that more investment is needed into the water and sewerage system. How that is paid for is up for debate. If you have private pension you may well be benefitting from the privatised water companies.
Also worth noting that nationalised companies will find it politically even more difficult to address the #1 issue leading to hosepipe bans, which is the need for more reservoirs.
The average person in the UK uses about 50 tons of water a year. Imagine a cube 3.68 meters on a side.
Crawley has got away with one! Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed! Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."
Crawley has got away with one! Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed! Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."
🔵 SELBY & AINSTY: the Conservative candidate Michael Naughton has withdrawn because of "an unforeseen family medical emergency". I wish Michael and his family well. 11:51 AM · Jun 16, 2023"
"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"
Wow Yellow Pages, that takes me back. That was one of the earliest causualties of the internet. I see they still have an internet presence, does anyone still use them? It's probably 20 years since I had any need for it.
I believe that directory enquiries is still going. All those 118s or has that finished now?
"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"
The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?
I think the Hovis ad is the one that regularly tops the polls. Interesting in what it says about the nation's cultural psyche, harking back to a bygone era, romanticised nostalgia for a simpler past... villages, thatched roof cottages etc.
🔵 SELBY & AINSTY: the Conservative candidate Michael Naughton has withdrawn because of "an unforeseen family medical emergency". I wish Michael and his family well. 11:51 AM · Jun 16, 2023"
Is the "unforeseen family emergency" that the party have just spotted his pro-fracking predilections and have realised they would lose with him as the candidate?
"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"
The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?
I think the Hovis ad is the one that regularly tops the polls. Interesting in what it says about the nation's cultural psyche, harking back to a bygone era, romanticised nostalgia for a simpler past... villages, thatched roof cottages etc.
I always assumed it was in Yorkshire for some reason. Its also an artful con - the views from almost anywhere else on that hill are nothing like!
On topic I did say on Saturday that Selby feels like a Con hold but have now found out the Tory candidate is pro fracking in the area…,
I'm not aware of any areas identified for fracking in the constituency at any point (I may be wrong). Would be much more of an issue if local fracking was a live issue I think.
"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"
The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?
I don't remember that ad personally.
Its funny though what sticks with you. I was driving the other day when "I'm so excited" came on the radio, which instantly as soon as it started brought to mind the vivid image of a Crunchie as a rollercoaster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUxZZxmaK0k
"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"
The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?
I don't remember that ad personally.
Its funny though what sticks with you. I was driving the other day when "I'm so excited" came on the radio, which instantly as soon as it started brought to mind the vivid image of a Crunchie as a rollercoaster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUxZZxmaK0k
Or the time that Levis jeans adverts were practically running the UK music charts.
Crawley has got away with one! Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed! Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."
That was hilarious, no-one noticed the edge at all, until the replay showed it.
One could argue that if a enge is so slight that only UltraEdge but no fielder notices it then the batsman shouldn't be out anyway. A bit like the ball can graze the wicket but if a bail doesn't drop then it's not out.
On topic I did say on Saturday that Selby feels like a Con hold but have now found out the Tory candidate is pro fracking in the area…,
I'm not aware of any areas identified for fracking in the constituency at any point (I may be wrong). Would be much more of an issue if local fracking was a live issue I think.
Says here a fifth of the local authority is covered by licences.
Crawley has got away with one! Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed! Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."
Nadine also looks a bit like Boris, as does Jennifer Arcuri.
There's definitely something in this idea of people often being more attracted to people who look a bit like themselves, although it doesn't always work that out that way.
Also spoofed by the Two Ronnies, but you won't have heard of them either...
I know who they are but don't find them funny whatsoever.
The Two Ronnies were wierd. There were some really good sketches, often based around clever word play especially from Barker. The "Four Candles" sketch is a good example of the good side. But they also did loads and loads of dross. Much middle aged toilet humour at a level which could be broadcast before the watershed, and even TSE would be too embarrased to post such weak double entendres. The songs at the end were especially shit.
Not the 9 OClock News took the piss out of the Two Ronnies with Smith playing Barker and Rhys-Jones playing Corbett. Aparently Corbett's reaction was "fair game" but Barker was very insulted by it. I would have expected it the other way round.
Nadine also looks a bit like Boris, as does Jennifer Arcuri.
There's definitely something in the idea of people often being attracted to people who look more like themselves, altthough it doesn't always work that out that way.
I think if you go for someone like yourself (either in looks or personality, or both) it will usually end badly as you're likely to clash.
Opposites can attract more IMO... but only if you have the maturity to respect and even embrace and enjoy the differences.
Also spoofed by the Two Ronnies, but you won't have heard of them either...
I know who they are but don't find them funny whatsoever.
The Two Ronnies were wierd. There were some really good sketches, often based around clever word play especially from Barker. The "Four Candles" sketch is a good example of the good side. But they also did loads and loads of dross. Much middle aged toilet humour at a level which could be broadcast before the watershed, and even TSE would be too embarrased to post such weak double entendres. The songs at the end were especially shit.
Not the 9 OClock News took the piss out of the Two Ronnies with Smith playing Barker and Rhys-Jones playing Corbett. Aparently Corbett's reaction was "fair game" but Barker was very insulted by it. I would have expected it the other way round.
Barker hated the cheap gags. Most of the good stuff, he wrote. So it isn't surprising that he found NtNoCN offensive as it poked at a truth he already knew.
"Do you have 'How to resign with grace and dignity' by Nadine Dorries?"
The cultural longevity of that ad is astonishing. Maybe the most memorable UK TV advertisement of all time?
I think the Hovis ad is the one that regularly tops the polls. Interesting in what it says about the nation's cultural psyche, harking back to a bygone era, romanticised nostalgia for a simpler past... villages, thatched roof cottages etc.
I always assumed it was in Yorkshire for some reason. Its also an artful con - the views from almost anywhere else on that hill are nothing like!
My memory of it - and to be honest, even I'm too young for it (but doesn't that prove the point about its longevity?) is that it was done in Yorkshire accents. I remember being quite surprised when I found out it was filmed in Dorset.
Comments
Not that nationalisation is the solution, all the evidence is the situation was far, far worse then.
Hopefully we all find somebody who looks at us the way Nads looks at BJ.
TfL has £13 billion of debt. Wizard wheezes like 'fare freezes' don't help.
Water was nationalised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:
59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s
Let's put the same investment into the rest of the country when we bring those companies back into public ownership. Glad we are on the same page.
And for the record, TfL is only in debt because the Tories made it that way, on purpose.
They're not Lyon around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNEdxZURTaI
But that said, if the Tories were to hold one of these, I think I'd fancy Uxbridge over Selby. My instinct is that the Tories were bobbing around a high water mark in small town provincial England about two years ago and a low water mark in outer Greater London, and swings since then will have been very different.
Some years ago, in Wiltshire, a local chap suggested using early Prius saloon cars to start a kind of minimalist bus service. Taxi from a fixed location x times an hour. The idea was that as demand grew, he would provide larger vehicles. The system, would in turn, support running a taxi service. Of which there was little in the area in question.
Apparently the killer argument against this was - "It's not a proper bus".
Despite him proving, mathematically that running this would emit far less CO2 etc than buses, up to a serious capacity level. The only question at higher volumes was availability of vehicles with hybrid power trains. This was quite a while back - that problem has been solved now.
This was to get support from the Green/NIMBY types and move spending to Schools n' Hospitals, while keeping the budget relatively balanced.
That was the core plan under Blair. Brown attempted to move beyond that, but mucked up on what was "infrastructure" and how to fund the spending.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 44% (+2)
CON: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
via @techneUK, 14 - 15 Jun"
https://twitter.com/BritainElects
* (Labour sell)
** Unless the LD machine fires up. See *
The Conservatives are riding on their outer core vote - 28-30%
It is hard to see where Starmer can get more than about 45% of the vote from. So SKS is maxing out the Labour potential vote, pretty much.
SKS is basically sitting on the maximum Labour vote, so in a sense he now just needs to stand still.
*A fictional joke thing.
I expect the gap will be tighter than that.
That Kantar poll had the Conservatives on 35%. The only time since then the Conservatives have been higher than 32% is 35% with Deltapoll with polling 17-20 March - a clear statistical outlier.
The Lib Dems have not been higher than 13% since September 2022 apart from 16% with Deltapoll with polling on 7 May just after the locals and again likely to be a statistical outlier.
Polling after the May local elections Conservatives are in the range 24-31, Labour 41-51, Lib Dems 9-13 (16).
The result will come down to vote efficiency and/or tactical anti-Tory voting.
Water was privatised in 1989, here's the built reservoir capacity by decade:
59,700,000 1880s
40,714,999 1890s
46,011,000 1900s
13,970,000 1910s
63,394,200 1920s
174,667,000 1930s
46,532,000 1940s
152,955,000 1950s
360,431,850 1960s
425,850,486 1970s
287,210,000 1980s
36,331,000 1990s
0 2000s
0 2010s
A private company surely couldn't flood out Welsh villages for profit.
WHAT!?
Crawley has got away with one!
Replays show he got an edge to one from Boland - and no one appealed!
Collins: "That from UltraEdge is clearly ball on bat."
#ENGvAUS #Ashes"
https://twitter.com/SEN_Cricket/status/1669664761498439680
Wonder when the last time an edge wasn't appealed was ?
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/embankment-trial-start-at-havant-thicket-reservoir-site-14-04-2023/?utm_source=Bibblio&utm_medium=Recommendation&utm_campaign=Recommended_Article
seems like a reasonable writeup, without axe grinding.
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/embankment-trial-start-at-havant-thicket-reservoir-site-14-04-2023/?utm_source=Bibblio&utm_medium=Recommendation&utm_campaign=Recommended_Articles
Note the completion date.
The Umpire may well have noticed it too - but he can't give a decision without an appeal.
"@Tomorrow'sMPs
@tomorrowsmps
🔵 SELBY & AINSTY: the Conservative candidate Michael Naughton has withdrawn because of "an unforeseen family medical emergency". I wish Michael and his family well.
11:51 AM · Jun 16, 2023"
tyrantmember would see him unable to earn a living.Its funny though what sticks with you. I was driving the other day when "I'm so excited" came on the radio, which instantly as soon as it started brought to mind the vivid image of a Crunchie as a rollercoaster. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUxZZxmaK0k
He's presumably going to use this column in the gammons' journal of record to cause as much strife as possible for RS. GB News show next...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6Mq59ykPnAE
Also spoofed by the Two Ronnies, but you won't have heard of them either...
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/tory-candidate-for-selby-accused-of-backing-dangerous-fracking-4181625#
Just think our very own @Roger could have been a world famous movie director if fate had panned out slightly differently...
There's definitely something in this idea of people often being more attracted to people who look a bit like themselves, although it doesn't always work that out that way.
Good facts, though. Ten points to each of you.
Not the 9 OClock News took the piss out of the Two Ronnies with Smith playing Barker and Rhys-Jones playing Corbett. Aparently Corbett's reaction was "fair game" but Barker was very insulted by it. I would have expected it the other way round.
Opposites can attract more IMO... but only if you have the maturity to respect and even embrace and enjoy the differences.
https://youtu.be/U4MTgjNkfyI
It might cover the period up to September 2024, which would be amusing if the Mail is hoping to revive the Boris faction's fortunes by then.