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Johnson inevitably dominates the front pages – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    That sounds quite nice, actually. I am a big fan of throwing a load of big flavours together in a sandwich setting and seeing what happens. Peanut butter, mature cheddar, a fried egg, avocado and sriracha is one of my favourites.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,972
    Taz said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    Here is what I don't understand. Tory voters consider themselves to be moral. They are aghast at the government - its crayon policies to kill refugees as much as its mortgage catastrophe. And then we have Boris!

    They have shown that they are motivated and organised, willing to vote as required to punish the party. Instead of thinking "lets not do the bad thing", we get amoral lickspittles like HY prepared to defend anything, call the sky green and denounce anyone insisting it is blue, deride any objectors as not true Tories.

    All this is doing is pushing an even firmer determination on voters to remove the government from office. Anyone see Newsnight last night? The ever scary VD in the chain, interviewing the Tory MP for Bassetlaw. Instead of fighting for his constituents he was on the "sky is green" pitch, raging against the Boris! report.

    VD managed to restrain herself from laughing, but did have to keep pulling him back to reality, and "have you even read the report???".
    Is that really on to call HYUFD amoral ?

    He may or may not be a lickspittle. That’s fair to debate but Amoral ?
    I'm not calling him immoral, just amoral. He will not engage on the issue of whether Johnson's actions were wrong. Merely the polling implications and how the party can still win.

    If he didn't bible bash and proclaim virtue over us from the pulpit I wouldn't be bothered. But he does.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,443

    How lucky am I to be working from home today, Monday, and Tuesday?

    #TheAshes

    A series some eight decades younger than the aforementioned Ascot Gold Cup but fear not! Royal Ascot is next week too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    They *already pay* higher taxes. The highest peacetime tax take ever!

    You talk as if you are the low tax party! You are not!
    Which would get even higher for wealthy, high earning Surrey voters under a Starmer Labour government that would put the top income tax rate back to 50% and introduce a wealth tax most likely and put up CGT
    I am rather impressed at how you write your utter nonsense with such authority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Why should your wife hating the Daily Mail but loving their crossword puzzles 'terrify the Conservative Party?'

    Sounds like you had a nice break in the Isle of Man anyway
    You really are strange

    She didn't say she hated the mail those are your words

    She was angry with the Johnson coverage but suggested if we retain it at least we can see what the enemy is saying

    Its coverage this morning is the enemy of honesty, decency and integrity something my wife and millions others hold dear but it seems that you do not recognise it sadly
    HY doesn't care about honesty, decency or integrity. Winning is the only concern.

    Your point was perfectly valid. The Heil is a mass market news platform, possibly *the* mass market platform. And when it dives off through unreality and makes stories and opinions up, the comments are hugely negative.

    Lets all be non-partisan for a minute. There are millions of decent respectable conservatives out there and they deserve a party worth their vote. They don't currently have one, and the media outlets supposedly representing their position instead have been corrupted by Trumpian alt-facts and open lies.

    Some people have been sucked down the rabbit hole, and for those people GBeebies and the Express are there. But for the mainstream of conservatives? It gets to the point when the media lose their audience and people just switch off listening.

    What did it for the Tories in 1997 wasn't just Tony Blair. It was the absolute collapse of the Tory vote. Labour went up by 2m. Tories fell by 4.5m. The same is brewing for 2024. Even if millions of 2019 Tory voters simply stay at home it will be a cataclysm. That HY cannot see this is baffling.
    Almost a million voted Referendum Party or UKIP in 1997 too, Major lost voters to his right he won in 1992.

    Sunak needs to avoid losing voters on his right who liked Boris to RefUK or Boris fans staying home on polling day as well as reduce leakage of more centrist voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,443
    Eabhal said:

    A beautiful Friday morning in the UK's finest city.

    We've just popped onto an immaculate Avanti West Coast train. We've got two heavily laden bikes, but a "Cycle Quartermaster" raised an eyebrow and beckoned us towards the front.

    This man is everything that is good about Scotland. A degree of congenial exasperation as he helped us onto this 8:52 service to Euston. A cavernous cycle storage area, reserved area for our panniers, and reserved seats right next to the bikes. Silence and air conditioning in the coach.

    All booked at short notice for £13. The UK/Scotland does occasionally work.

    You can hire Boris bikes in London. No need to bring your own down from Scotland.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    They *already pay* higher taxes. The highest peacetime tax take ever!

    You talk as if you are the low tax party! You are not!
    The big future political debate is who will be paying the taxes and what they will be paying those taxes on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281

    How lucky am I to be working from home today, Monday, and Tuesday?

    #TheAshes

    Did luck have anything to do with it ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,871

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    That sounds quite nice, actually. I am a big fan of throwing a load of big flavours together in a sandwich setting and seeing what happens. Peanut butter, mature cheddar, a fried egg, avocado and sriracha is one of my favourites.
    Yours sounds nice. His not so much.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    That sounds quite nice, actually. I am a big fan of throwing a load of big flavours together in a sandwich setting and seeing what happens. Peanut butter, mature cheddar, a fried egg, avocado and sriracha is one of my favourites.
    This post requires an intervention from your family and friends.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    They *already pay* higher taxes. The highest peacetime tax take ever!

    You talk as if you are the low tax party! You are not!
    PPE contracts for friends and family and the services of Lord Pannick don't come cheap you know
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Nigelb said:

    How lucky am I to be working from home today, Monday, and Tuesday?

    #TheAshes

    Did luck have anything to do with it ?
    Not really.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Why should your wife hating the Daily Mail but loving their crossword puzzles 'terrify the Conservative Party?'

    Sounds like you had a nice break in the Isle of Man anyway
    You really are strange

    She didn't say she hated the mail those are your words

    She was angry with the Johnson coverage but suggested if we retain it at least we can see what the enemy is saying

    Its coverage this morning is the enemy of honesty, decency and integrity something my wife and millions others hold dear but it seems that you do not recognise it sadly
    HY doesn't care about honesty, decency or integrity. Winning is the only concern.

    Your point was perfectly valid. The Heil is a mass market news platform, possibly *the* mass market platform. And when it dives off through unreality and makes stories and opinions up, the comments are hugely negative.

    Lets all be non-partisan for a minute. There are millions of decent respectable conservatives out there and they deserve a party worth their vote. They don't currently have one, and the media outlets supposedly representing their position instead have been corrupted by Trumpian alt-facts and open lies.

    Some people have been sucked down the rabbit hole, and for those people GBeebies and the Express are there. But for the mainstream of conservatives? It gets to the point when the media lose their audience and people just switch off listening.

    What did it for the Tories in 1997 wasn't just Tony Blair. It was the absolute collapse of the Tory vote. Labour went up by 2m. Tories fell by 4.5m. The same is brewing for 2024. Even if millions of 2019 Tory voters simply stay at home it will be a cataclysm. That HY cannot see this is baffling.
    Almost a million voted Referendum Party or UKIP in 1997 too, Major lost voters to his right he won in 1992.

    Sunak needs to avoid losing voters on his right who liked Boris to RefUK or Boris fans staying home on polling day as well as reduce leakage of more centrist voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs
    Which is why Sunak is stuck like a rabbit in headlights. Whichever way he tries to move the party's positioning, he will lose some voters, even if he gains others. As a Centre-rightist Dad, I'd obviously prefer him to shuffle in my direction, and I sincerely believe that would be a net gain for the blue team. But I can understand why he feels he can't.

    It's a looong time since I did GCSE history; are there any fighting on two front strategies that have ended well?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    First contact from Conservatives in S&A. 'Policing survey' but with majority non-policing questions, including local concerns, priorities, voting history and voting intention, all useful for targeting. Letter is quite S&A specific. Be interesting to know whether a similar 'survey' has been seen elsewhere.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    edited June 2023
    Cricket post, so skip if not interested.

    Two hours to go. England have a good chance, but not, in my view, if they play gung-ho Bazball. You can't score at 4/5/6 an over against the nagging lengths of Cummins, Boland, and Hazlewood without taking too many chances and risking a collapse. So each ball needs to be played on its merits, especially in the first 30 overs or so. I worry about England's openers; I'd be surprised if they're good enough to get through an hour without at least one falling. Mind you, Australia's openers are potentially a weak spot as well.

    So on betting. England to win the Ashes if they follow my advice and not be too reckless. But as I don't think they will, I'm betting on Australia to win the Ashes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    Bellshill by-election result (15th June 2023):

    Labour 51.8% (+13.0)
    SNP 27.1% (-13.7)
    Conservatives 8.5% (-5.1)
    British Unionist Party 4.3% (n/a)
    Alba 3.9% (+1.7)
    Greens 1.6% (n/a)
    Liberal Democrats 1.2% (n/a)
    Scottish Family Party 1.1% (n/a)
    Freedom Alliance 0.3% (n/a)
    UKIP 0.3% (n/a)

    The number of first preference votes polled for each candidate was:

    Joseph Budd, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 753
    Colin Cameron, Scottish Conservative and Unionist – 236
    John Arthur Henry Cole, Scottish Liberal Democrats – 34
    Leo Francis Lanahan, Scottish Family Party: Pro-Family, Pro-Marriage, Pro-Life - 30
    John Marshall, Alba Party for Independence – 107
    Anne McCrory, Scottish Labour Party – 1,440
    Rosemary McGowan, Scottish Greens - 44
    Simona Panaitescu, Freedom Alliance. Stop the Great Reset – 7
    Billy Ross, British Unionists – For a Better Britain - 120
    Neil Wilson, UK Independence Party - 7
    Total of first preference votes: 2,778

    The percentage poll was 22.7% and the electoral quota was 1,390.

    Bellshill is in the neighbouring constituency to Rutherglen.

    SNP are going to get humped , they are as popular as Tories down south and Useless and the green weirdos make it worse day by day. The MSP's are spineless grifters only there for the money or are friends /family of the mafia running the show.
    God help us when the Labour shit get back in
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    Sean_F said:

    If

    Sean_F said:

    Many thanks for everyones’ kind words yesterday. To anyone who has the time, I’d recommend doing a research higher degree. It wasn’t just interesting in itself, it really helped clarify for me how to construct a lengthy argument. You’re entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts. You can’t bullshit, you can’t wing it, and every assertion you make that is not common knowledge has to be supported with a reference.

    Missed that yesterday - congratulations! What did you do?
    Thanks, an MA in military history.
    Many congratulations! Our go to expert on the Peninsular War!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Good morning, everyone.

    Congratulations, Mr. F. Did you specialise in one particular period or was it more general (if you'll pardon the pun)?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,558
    Regarding the Johnson debate on Monday there is an argument that the Tories need to turn up and vote to support the findings however I’m wondering whether it would be better if every Tory MP who isn’t a Johnson didn’t turn up at all. No backbenchers and no government ministers.

    My thinking is that it sends a big message to Johnson and his dwindling band that they are a tiny minority of the party in parliament and it sends a very clear message to constituencies that Johnson has very little support in parliament so if they want deselections there are going to be very few existing Tory MPs standing at next election.

    It also it sends a message, when people see it on tv where there are twenty Johnson supporters (and some knobs who just want to discuss the technical aspects - like the chap who stopped the upskirting bill on a point of principle and process) sitting on empty Tory benches how small his support is and hopefully send the message that the Johnson era is dead.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    My parents still make gooseberry jam. It's not very nice.

    They also use gooseberries in strawberry jam, to acidify and avoid the need for pectin for setting. That works fine, as it all takes on a strawberry flavour.

    As to what happened to them. Well, they don't taste very nice and the buggers are hard to pick due to the prickles. So why would anyone sane grow them?

    #TopTipsForGooseberries
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    That sounds quite nice, actually. I am a big fan of throwing a load of big flavours together in a sandwich setting and seeing what happens. Peanut butter, mature cheddar, a fried egg, avocado and sriracha is one of my favourites.
    This post requires an intervention from your family and friends.
    The butter and “flip” bit reminded me of this

    https://youtu.be/Z8yW5cyXXRc
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    HYUFD said:

    Spotify ends podcast deal with Harry and Meghan
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65924584

    I am trying to weigh up reality. Is Harriet Harman now more evil than Hazza and Megs?
    'Harriet Harman' is suspiciously close to a mash-up of 'Harry and Meghan', especially if you say them aloud quickly. The tentacles of wokeness are such that we are led to believe they are different, when actually they are the same - part of the global WEF conspiracy called 'bring down Boris'. That's the reality.
    Has the WEF conspiracy always been around, or us it a new thing?

    I'm involved in campaigning for LTNs, 15 minute cities etc and have had a number of death threats from people claiming I'm a WEF collaborator.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023
    Tory candidate for Uxbridge selected last night already going hard against Labour's ULEZ expansion.

    'Steve Tuckwell has been selected as the Conservative candidate for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election on 20 July 2023.

    Steve is a lifelong resident of Hillingdon, where he lives with his partner and family. Steve was selected by Conservative members in Uxbridge and South Ruislip today, 15 June 2023.

    “I’m honoured to be selected to represent the area I have served since 2018 and grew up in,” Steve said.
    “Uxbridge cannot afford a Labour MP who backs Khan’s plan to stop residents living their lives the way they choose and make us pick up the tab for his mistakes, under his ULEZ expansion. I’m a local here, and if elected, I will work hard to deliver the rebuilding of Hillingdon Hospital.
    “If Labour win in Uxbridge however – it will send Sadiq Khan a clear message that he can expand his ULEZ and close our police station. A vote for the Conservative Party will tell him he can’t get away with it.”'
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/06/16/tuckwell-selected-to-fight-the-uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-by-election/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Why should your wife hating the Daily Mail but loving their crossword puzzles 'terrify the Conservative Party?'

    Sounds like you had a nice break in the Isle of Man anyway
    You really are strange

    She didn't say she hated the mail those are your words

    She was angry with the Johnson coverage but suggested if we retain it at least we can see what the enemy is saying

    Its coverage this morning is the enemy of honesty, decency and integrity something my wife and millions others hold dear but it seems that you do not recognise it sadly
    HY doesn't care about honesty, decency or integrity. Winning is the only concern.

    Your point was perfectly valid. The Heil is a mass market news platform, possibly *the* mass market platform. And when it dives off through unreality and makes stories and opinions up, the comments are hugely negative.

    Lets all be non-partisan for a minute. There are millions of decent respectable conservatives out there and they deserve a party worth their vote. They don't currently have one, and the media outlets supposedly representing their position instead have been corrupted by Trumpian alt-facts and open lies.

    Some people have been sucked down the rabbit hole, and for those people GBeebies and the Express are there. But for the mainstream of conservatives? It gets to the point when the media lose their audience and people just switch off listening.

    What did it for the Tories in 1997 wasn't just Tony Blair. It was the absolute collapse of the Tory vote. Labour went up by 2m. Tories fell by 4.5m. The same is brewing for 2024. Even if millions of 2019 Tory voters simply stay at home it will be a cataclysm. That HY cannot see this is baffling.
    Almost a million voted Referendum Party or UKIP in 1997 too, Major lost voters to his right he won in 1992.

    Sunak needs to avoid losing voters on his right who liked Boris to RefUK or Boris fans staying home on polling day as well as reduce leakage of more centrist voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs
    Which is why Sunak is stuck like a rabbit in headlights. Whichever way he tries to move the party's positioning, he will lose some voters, even if he gains others. As a Centre-rightist Dad, I'd obviously prefer him to shuffle in my direction, and I sincerely believe that would be a net gain for the blue team. But I can understand why he feels he can't.

    It's a looong time since I did GCSE history; are there any fighting on two front strategies that have ended well?
    Successful leaders do manage to win the centre while holding their base, as Cameron did in 2015, Boris did in 2019 and Blair did in 1997 and 2001 (before leaking on his left to the LDs and Greens and Respect in 2005 post Iraq War which saw his majority slashed by 100)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    malcolmg said:

    Bellshill by-election result (15th June 2023):

    Labour 51.8% (+13.0)
    SNP 27.1% (-13.7)
    Conservatives 8.5% (-5.1)
    British Unionist Party 4.3% (n/a)
    Alba 3.9% (+1.7)
    Greens 1.6% (n/a)
    Liberal Democrats 1.2% (n/a)
    Scottish Family Party 1.1% (n/a)
    Freedom Alliance 0.3% (n/a)
    UKIP 0.3% (n/a)

    The number of first preference votes polled for each candidate was:

    Joseph Budd, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 753
    Colin Cameron, Scottish Conservative and Unionist – 236
    John Arthur Henry Cole, Scottish Liberal Democrats – 34
    Leo Francis Lanahan, Scottish Family Party: Pro-Family, Pro-Marriage, Pro-Life - 30
    John Marshall, Alba Party for Independence – 107
    Anne McCrory, Scottish Labour Party – 1,440
    Rosemary McGowan, Scottish Greens - 44
    Simona Panaitescu, Freedom Alliance. Stop the Great Reset – 7
    Billy Ross, British Unionists – For a Better Britain - 120
    Neil Wilson, UK Independence Party - 7
    Total of first preference votes: 2,778

    The percentage poll was 22.7% and the electoral quota was 1,390.

    Bellshill is in the neighbouring constituency to Rutherglen.

    SNP are going to get humped , they are as popular as Tories down south and Useless and the green weirdos make it worse day by day. The MSP's are spineless grifters only there for the money or are friends /family of the mafia running the show.
    God help us when the Labour shit get back in
    Jeezo, at the least the weather is nice!

    Would you go for the SNP or Labour, given a straight choice? That's the question for a lot of people in Scotland.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Spotify ends podcast deal with Harry and Meghan
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65924584

    I am trying to weigh up reality. Is Harriet Harman now more evil than Hazza and Megs?
    'Harriet Harman' is suspiciously close to a mash-up of 'Harry and Meghan', especially if you say them aloud quickly. The tentacles of wokeness are such that we are led to believe they are different, when actually they are the same - part of the global WEF conspiracy called 'bring down Boris'. That's the reality.
    Has the WEF conspiracy always been around, or us it a new thing?

    I'm involved in campaigning for LTNs, 15 minute cities etc and have had a number of death threats from people claiming I'm a WEF collaborator.
    I don't know much about it, but it's been around for a while. Klaus Schwab is the main man, apparently, but of course Gates, Soros and others are implicated. Covid vaccines are designed to track our movements. And what you're involved in, stuff like 15-minute cities, is social control exercised by global elites who want to create a barrier between Carlton Street and Carlton Avenue. Quite what's in it for them, who knows?

    Scarily, this conspiratorial nonsense has a lot of followers and is growing. It even has the occasional fan on PB, would you believe?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    HYUFD said:

    Tory candidate for Uxbridge selected last night already going hard against Labour's ULEZ expansion.

    'Steve Tuckwell has been selected as the Conservative candidate for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election on 20 July 2023.

    Steve is a lifelong resident of Hillingdon, where he lives with his partner and family. Steve was selected by Conservative members in Uxbridge and South Ruislip today, 15 June 2023.

    “I’m honoured to be selected to represent the area I have served since 2018 and grew up in,” Steve said.
    “Uxbridge cannot afford a Labour MP who backs Khan’s plan to stop residents living their lives the way they choose and make us pick up the tab for his mistakes, under his ULEZ expansion. I’m a local here, and if elected, I will work hard to deliver the rebuilding of Hillingdon Hospital.
    “If Labour win in Uxbridge however – it will send Sadiq Khan a clear message that he can expand his ULEZ and close our police station. A vote for the Conservative Party will tell him he can’t get away with it.”'
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/06/16/tuckwell-selected-to-fight-the-uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-by-election/

    No it doesn't all it says is that there is a significant number of Tory voters in Uxbridge.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    APCs arriving Monday.

    Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles has announced plans to send 20 armored personnel carriers, 4 Leopard main battle tanks, and a field hospital to Ukraine, reads the website of the Spanish defense ministry following the minister's participation in the 13th Ramstein meeting
    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1669600880977387520
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    Sean_F said:

    If

    Sean_F said:

    Many thanks for everyones’ kind words yesterday. To anyone who has the time, I’d recommend doing a research higher degree. It wasn’t just interesting in itself, it really helped clarify for me how to construct a lengthy argument. You’re entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts. You can’t bullshit, you can’t wing it, and every assertion you make that is not common knowledge has to be supported with a reference.

    Missed that yesterday - congratulations! What did you do?
    Thanks, an MA in military history.
    Well done. I am very jealous. Years ago I was accepted to do an MA in Military History at Leeds. The syllabus, for me, couldn't have been better. Each module was really interesting and I couldn't wait to get started.

    A month before the course began I got a letter saying the prof running the course was retiring, they were very sorry, but the course wouldn't be running after all. I was gutted. Fair play to them they said I could choose another course, within reason, so I ended up doing Terrorism and Security. This was while we were still very much embroiled in the GWOT, it was interesting and I did well.

    But I always wonder what would have happened, where I'd be, if I'd done that Military History MA.

    There's plenty of MAs for Military History, WW1 Studies, and the like, you can do by distance learning now but it wasn't the case when I did mine.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Spotify ends podcast deal with Harry and Meghan
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65924584

    I am trying to weigh up reality. Is Harriet Harman now more evil than Hazza and Megs?
    'Harriet Harman' is suspiciously close to a mash-up of 'Harry and Meghan', especially if you say them aloud quickly. The tentacles of wokeness are such that we are led to believe they are different, when actually they are the same - part of the global WEF conspiracy called 'bring down Boris'. That's the reality.
    Has the WEF conspiracy always been around, or us it a new thing?

    I'm involved in campaigning for LTNs, 15 minute cities etc and have had a number of death threats from people claiming I'm a WEF collaborator.
    Hmmm

    I asked if you were on The List of The Conspiracy. The Head Lizard told the Zeta Reticulans who told the Illuminati who told me, that they have no record of you.

    They've apologised. But I suspect their outsourcing the personal system to Fujitsu was a bad plan.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    HYUFD said:

    Tory candidate for Uxbridge selected last night already going hard against Labour's ULEZ expansion.

    'Steve Tuckwell has been selected as the Conservative candidate for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election on 20 July 2023.

    Steve is a lifelong resident of Hillingdon, where he lives with his partner and family. Steve was selected by Conservative members in Uxbridge and South Ruislip today, 15 June 2023.

    “I’m honoured to be selected to represent the area I have served since 2018 and grew up in,” Steve said.
    “Uxbridge cannot afford a Labour MP who backs Khan’s plan to stop residents living their lives the way they choose and make us pick up the tab for his mistakes, under his ULEZ expansion. I’m a local here, and if elected, I will work hard to deliver the rebuilding of Hillingdon Hospital.
    “If Labour win in Uxbridge however – it will send Sadiq Khan a clear message that he can expand his ULEZ and close our police station. A vote for the Conservative Party will tell him he can’t get away with it.”'
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/06/16/tuckwell-selected-to-fight-the-uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-by-election/

    Mildly amusing to think that the famous bon viveur Boris Johnson could be replaced by somebody called Tuckwell.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited June 2023
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Many thanks for everyones’ kind words yesterday. To anyone who has the time, I’d recommend doing a research higher degree. It wasn’t just interesting in itself, it really helped clarify for me how to construct a lengthy argument. You’re entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts. You can’t bullshit, you can’t wing it, and every assertion you make that is not common knowledge has to be supported with a reference.

    Missed that yesterday - congratulations! What did you do?
    Thanks, an MA in military history.
    I enjoyed my MA in Film History - 10,000 words on a comparison of two films about the Titanic and how both said more about 1952 and 1997 than 1912.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477

    Cricket post, so skip if not interested.

    Two hours to go. England have a good chance, but not, in my view, if they play gung-ho Bazball. You can't score at 4/5/6 an over against the nagging lengths of Cummins, Boland, and Hazlewood without taking too many chances and risking a collapse. So each ball needs to be played on its merits, especially in the first 30 overs or so. I worry about England's openers; I'd be surprised if they're good enough to get through an hour without at least one falling. Mind you, Australia's openers are potentially a weak spot as well.

    So on betting. England to win the Ashes if they follow my advice and not be too reckless. But as I don't think they will, I'm betting on Australia to win the Ashes.

    Hang you head in shame, Northern. People have been sent to ConHome for less.

    Seriously, you may be right. I am finding this series impossible to predict. It could be anything. As long as it's good cricket I don't really mind what happens.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Selebian said:

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    My parents still make gooseberry jam. It's not very nice.

    They also use gooseberries in strawberry jam, to acidify and avoid the need for pectin for setting. That works fine, as it all takes on a strawberry flavour.

    As to what happened to them. Well, they don't taste very nice and the buggers are hard to pick due to the prickles. So why would anyone sane grow them?

    #TopTipsForGooseberries
    My mother makes gooseberry fool, which is delicious.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Bellshill by-election result (15th June 2023):

    Labour 51.8% (+13.0)
    SNP 27.1% (-13.7)
    Conservatives 8.5% (-5.1)
    British Unionist Party 4.3% (n/a)
    Alba 3.9% (+1.7)
    Greens 1.6% (n/a)
    Liberal Democrats 1.2% (n/a)
    Scottish Family Party 1.1% (n/a)
    Freedom Alliance 0.3% (n/a)
    UKIP 0.3% (n/a)

    The number of first preference votes polled for each candidate was:

    Joseph Budd, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 753
    Colin Cameron, Scottish Conservative and Unionist – 236
    John Arthur Henry Cole, Scottish Liberal Democrats – 34
    Leo Francis Lanahan, Scottish Family Party: Pro-Family, Pro-Marriage, Pro-Life - 30
    John Marshall, Alba Party for Independence – 107
    Anne McCrory, Scottish Labour Party – 1,440
    Rosemary McGowan, Scottish Greens - 44
    Simona Panaitescu, Freedom Alliance. Stop the Great Reset – 7
    Billy Ross, British Unionists – For a Better Britain - 120
    Neil Wilson, UK Independence Party - 7
    Total of first preference votes: 2,778

    The percentage poll was 22.7% and the electoral quota was 1,390.

    Bellshill is in the neighbouring constituency to Rutherglen.

    SNP are going to get humped , they are as popular as Tories down south and Useless and the green weirdos make it worse day by day. The MSP's are spineless grifters only there for the money or are friends /family of the mafia running the show.
    God help us when the Labour shit get back in
    Jeezo, at the least the weather is nice!

    Would you go for the SNP or Labour, given a straight choice? That's the question for a lot of people in Scotland.
    Neither for me, I will vote for a real Independence party if available or NOT vote. I refuse to pick between two sets of grifters.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Good morning, everyone.

    Congratulations, Mr. F. Did you specialise in one particular period or was it more general (if you'll pardon the pun)?

    The Great Forgotten’: The Contribution Made by the Spanish to the Allied Campaign in the Peninsular War, 1808 - 1814.

    I've been asked to continue to a PhD, and if so, I'd probably do it on the role of the Royal Navy in that conflict (a very big one, I discovered, as I researched).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    Sean_F said:

    If

    Sean_F said:

    Many thanks for everyones’ kind words yesterday. To anyone who has the time, I’d recommend doing a research higher degree. It wasn’t just interesting in itself, it really helped clarify for me how to construct a lengthy argument. You’re entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts. You can’t bullshit, you can’t wing it, and every assertion you make that is not common knowledge has to be supported with a reference.

    Missed that yesterday - congratulations! What did you do?
    Thanks, an MA in military history.
    Well done. I am very jealous. Years ago I was accepted to do an MA in Military History at Leeds. The syllabus, for me, couldn't have been better. Each module was really interesting and I couldn't wait to get started.

    A month before the course began I got a letter saying the prof running the course was retiring, they were very sorry, but the course wouldn't be running after all. I was gutted. Fair play to them they said I could choose another course, within reason, so I ended up doing Terrorism and Security. This was while we were still very much embroiled in the GWOT, it was interesting and I did well.

    But I always wonder what would have happened, where I'd be, if I'd done that Military History MA.

    There's plenty of MAs for Military History, WW1 Studies, and the like, you can do by distance learning now but it wasn't the case when I did mine.
    As mine was a purely research degree, fortunately, I didn't have to attend at the University very much, nor was it dependent upon a teacher.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    Sean_F said:

    If

    Sean_F said:

    Many thanks for everyones’ kind words yesterday. To anyone who has the time, I’d recommend doing a research higher degree. It wasn’t just interesting in itself, it really helped clarify for me how to construct a lengthy argument. You’re entitled to your own opinions, but not to your own facts. You can’t bullshit, you can’t wing it, and every assertion you make that is not common knowledge has to be supported with a reference.

    Missed that yesterday - congratulations! What did you do?
    Thanks, an MA in military history.
    Congrats!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Bellshill by-election result (15th June 2023):

    Labour 51.8% (+13.0)
    SNP 27.1% (-13.7)
    Conservatives 8.5% (-5.1)
    British Unionist Party 4.3% (n/a)
    Alba 3.9% (+1.7)
    Greens 1.6% (n/a)
    Liberal Democrats 1.2% (n/a)
    Scottish Family Party 1.1% (n/a)
    Freedom Alliance 0.3% (n/a)
    UKIP 0.3% (n/a)

    The number of first preference votes polled for each candidate was:

    Joseph Budd, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 753
    Colin Cameron, Scottish Conservative and Unionist – 236
    John Arthur Henry Cole, Scottish Liberal Democrats – 34
    Leo Francis Lanahan, Scottish Family Party: Pro-Family, Pro-Marriage, Pro-Life - 30
    John Marshall, Alba Party for Independence – 107
    Anne McCrory, Scottish Labour Party – 1,440
    Rosemary McGowan, Scottish Greens - 44
    Simona Panaitescu, Freedom Alliance. Stop the Great Reset – 7
    Billy Ross, British Unionists – For a Better Britain - 120
    Neil Wilson, UK Independence Party - 7
    Total of first preference votes: 2,778

    The percentage poll was 22.7% and the electoral quota was 1,390.

    Bellshill is in the neighbouring constituency to Rutherglen.

    SNP are going to get humped , they are as popular as Tories down south and Useless and the green weirdos make it worse day by day. The MSP's are spineless grifters only there for the money or are friends /family of the mafia running the show.
    God help us when the Labour shit get back in
    Jeezo, at the least the weather is nice!

    Would you go for the SNP or Labour, given a straight choice? That's the question for a lot of people in Scotland.
    Neither for me, I will vote for a real Independence party if available or NOT vote. I refuse to pick between two sets of grifters.
    PS, life is great and weather wonderful, politics sucks as much up here as it does down south. Too many greedy morons around, shoudl be a culling below a certain IQ and start again.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,916

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    That sounds quite nice, actually. I am a big fan of throwing a load of big flavours together in a sandwich setting and seeing what happens. Peanut butter, mature cheddar, a fried egg, avocado and sriracha is one of my favourites.
    My favourite combination is: relish, mature cheddar, mackerel/pilchards and a boiled egg. Oh, and sometimes salami too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156

    How lucky am I to be working from home today, Monday, and Tuesday?

    #TheAshes

    Test Cricket. Or Yawn-fest Cricket?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156

    HYUFD said:

    Tory candidate for Uxbridge selected last night already going hard against Labour's ULEZ expansion.

    'Steve Tuckwell has been selected as the Conservative candidate for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election on 20 July 2023.

    Steve is a lifelong resident of Hillingdon, where he lives with his partner and family. Steve was selected by Conservative members in Uxbridge and South Ruislip today, 15 June 2023.

    “I’m honoured to be selected to represent the area I have served since 2018 and grew up in,” Steve said.
    “Uxbridge cannot afford a Labour MP who backs Khan’s plan to stop residents living their lives the way they choose and make us pick up the tab for his mistakes, under his ULEZ expansion. I’m a local here, and if elected, I will work hard to deliver the rebuilding of Hillingdon Hospital.
    “If Labour win in Uxbridge however – it will send Sadiq Khan a clear message that he can expand his ULEZ and close our police station. A vote for the Conservative Party will tell him he can’t get away with it.”'
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/06/16/tuckwell-selected-to-fight-the-uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-by-election/

    Mildly amusing to think that the famous bon viveur Boris Johnson could be replaced by somebody called Tuckwell.
    At least it's not another Pincher :lol:
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,314
    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    That sounds quite nice, actually. I am a big fan of throwing a load of big flavours together in a sandwich setting and seeing what happens. Peanut butter, mature cheddar, a fried egg, avocado and sriracha is one of my favourites.
    This post requires an intervention from your family and friends.
    Ha ha, the only intervention would be a request for me to make one for them!
    You wouldn't approve of my food tastes, I even quite like pineapple on pizza - I mean, what's not to like there?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    My parents still make gooseberry jam. It's not very nice.

    They also use gooseberries in strawberry jam, to acidify and avoid the need for pectin for setting. That works fine, as it all takes on a strawberry flavour.

    As to what happened to them. Well, they don't taste very nice and the buggers are hard to pick due to the prickles. So why would anyone sane grow them?

    #TopTipsForGooseberries
    My mother makes gooseberry fool, which is delicious.
    Actually, that is a good point. Gooseberry fool is rather good. Exception to every rule and so on...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,168

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    You know what, by comparison, people who put pineapple on pizza aren't so bad.


    That sounds quite nice, actually. I am a big fan of throwing a load of big flavours together in a sandwich setting and seeing what happens. Peanut butter, mature cheddar, a fried egg, avocado and sriracha is one of my favourites.
    This post requires an intervention from your family and friends.
    Ha ha, the only intervention would be a request for me to make one for them!
    You wouldn't approve of my food tastes, I even quite like pineapple on pizza - I mean, what's not to like there?
    Marmalade and stilton is amazing
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Bellshill by-election result (15th June 2023):

    Labour 51.8% (+13.0)
    SNP 27.1% (-13.7)
    Conservatives 8.5% (-5.1)
    British Unionist Party 4.3% (n/a)
    Alba 3.9% (+1.7)
    Greens 1.6% (n/a)
    Liberal Democrats 1.2% (n/a)
    Scottish Family Party 1.1% (n/a)
    Freedom Alliance 0.3% (n/a)
    UKIP 0.3% (n/a)

    The number of first preference votes polled for each candidate was:

    Joseph Budd, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 753
    Colin Cameron, Scottish Conservative and Unionist – 236
    John Arthur Henry Cole, Scottish Liberal Democrats – 34
    Leo Francis Lanahan, Scottish Family Party: Pro-Family, Pro-Marriage, Pro-Life - 30
    John Marshall, Alba Party for Independence – 107
    Anne McCrory, Scottish Labour Party – 1,440
    Rosemary McGowan, Scottish Greens - 44
    Simona Panaitescu, Freedom Alliance. Stop the Great Reset – 7
    Billy Ross, British Unionists – For a Better Britain - 120
    Neil Wilson, UK Independence Party - 7
    Total of first preference votes: 2,778

    The percentage poll was 22.7% and the electoral quota was 1,390.

    Bellshill is in the neighbouring constituency to Rutherglen.

    SNP are going to get humped , they are as popular as Tories down south and Useless and the green weirdos make it worse day by day. The MSP's are spineless grifters only there for the money or are friends /family of the mafia running the show.
    God help us when the Labour shit get back in
    Jeezo, at the least the weather is nice!

    Would you go for the SNP or Labour, given a straight choice? That's the question for a lot of people in Scotland.
    Neither for me, I will vote for a real Independence party if available or NOT vote. I refuse to pick between two sets of grifters.
    PS, life is great and weather wonderful, politics sucks as much up here as it does down south. Too many greedy morons around, shoudl be a culling below a certain IQ and start again.
    You should team up with Leon. He has an acute IQ-dar.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    The Tories now have a huge problem, a vociferous and increasingly Trump-like minority in the party who are determined to intimidate and wreck anyone who opposes them. It will be interesting to see how many Tory MPs dare to stand up to them in the vote on Monday for fear of deselection.

    Ever since the membership has been in the grip of Brexiteers the party has been a shambles. It is no coincidence that the "Get Brexit Done" election victory ushered in the 2 worst PMs in living memory.

    Short of removing power from the members I don't know how they solve the problem. They will remain hopelessly divided and will slowly but surely slide down the same rabbit hole as the GOP.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    Selebian said:

    First contact from Conservatives in S&A. 'Policing survey' but with majority non-policing questions, including local concerns, priorities, voting history and voting intention, all useful for targeting. Letter is quite S&A specific. Be interesting to know whether a similar 'survey' has been seen elsewhere.

    So, do I, as (presently) part of the anti-growthTory coalition indicate on this survey that I'm a bit of a floating voter and would love to spend some time with Tory canvassers discussing the finer points of Brexit and probity in public life? :innocent:

    Somewhat sadly, I have never been knocked up by a canvasser. Might be my chance!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,443
    HYUFD said:

    Tory candidate for Uxbridge selected last night already going hard against Labour's ULEZ expansion.

    'Steve Tuckwell has been selected as the Conservative candidate for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election on 20 July 2023.

    Steve is a lifelong resident of Hillingdon, where he lives with his partner and family. Steve was selected by Conservative members in Uxbridge and South Ruislip today, 15 June 2023.

    “I’m honoured to be selected to represent the area I have served since 2018 and grew up in,” Steve said.
    “Uxbridge cannot afford a Labour MP who backs Khan’s plan to stop residents living their lives the way they choose and make us pick up the tab for his mistakes, under his ULEZ expansion. I’m a local here, and if elected, I will work hard to deliver the rebuilding of Hillingdon Hospital.
    “If Labour win in Uxbridge however – it will send Sadiq Khan a clear message that he can expand his ULEZ and close our police station. A vote for the Conservative Party will tell him he can’t get away with it.”'
    https://conservativehome.com/2023/06/16/tuckwell-selected-to-fight-the-uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-by-election/

    Two good campaigns but why wasn't the previous MP for Uxbridge opposed to ULEZ and in favour of rebuilding Hillingdon Hospital? Name and shame!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,916
    edited June 2023

    Cricket post, so skip if not interested.

    Two hours to go. England have a good chance, but not, in my view, if they play gung-ho Bazball. You can't score at 4/5/6 an over against the nagging lengths of Cummins, Boland, and Hazlewood without taking too many chances and risking a collapse. So each ball needs to be played on its merits, especially in the first 30 overs or so. I worry about England's openers; I'd be surprised if they're good enough to get through an hour without at least one falling. Mind you, Australia's openers are potentially a weak spot as well.

    So on betting. England to win the Ashes if they follow my advice and not be too reckless. But as I don't think they will, I'm betting on Australia to win the Ashes.

    The Bazball rhetoric is relentlessly positive and aggressive, but the implementation has been more nuanced.

    Everyone remembers the periods when England are scoring at > 6 runs per over, but it's not like that all the time. Although the overall average run-rate under Stones has been an absurd 4.85, that implies that there have been plenty of periods of a more circumspect scoring rate along with the more aggressive periods.

    I'm more worried about the bowling. Average age of our best four bowlers for the first Test is only just under 36, and Smith and Labuschagne appear to be in great form. You can only defy the inevitable progress of time for so long. Can Anderson do it for another six weeks?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,126
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    You expect the Tories to do a little better than a more or less total wipe out?

    In Surrey?

    There there, HY, go and have a little lie down.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Bellshill by-election result (15th June 2023):

    Labour 51.8% (+13.0)
    SNP 27.1% (-13.7)
    Conservatives 8.5% (-5.1)
    British Unionist Party 4.3% (n/a)
    Alba 3.9% (+1.7)
    Greens 1.6% (n/a)
    Liberal Democrats 1.2% (n/a)
    Scottish Family Party 1.1% (n/a)
    Freedom Alliance 0.3% (n/a)
    UKIP 0.3% (n/a)

    The number of first preference votes polled for each candidate was:

    Joseph Budd, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 753
    Colin Cameron, Scottish Conservative and Unionist – 236
    John Arthur Henry Cole, Scottish Liberal Democrats – 34
    Leo Francis Lanahan, Scottish Family Party: Pro-Family, Pro-Marriage, Pro-Life - 30
    John Marshall, Alba Party for Independence – 107
    Anne McCrory, Scottish Labour Party – 1,440
    Rosemary McGowan, Scottish Greens - 44
    Simona Panaitescu, Freedom Alliance. Stop the Great Reset – 7
    Billy Ross, British Unionists – For a Better Britain - 120
    Neil Wilson, UK Independence Party - 7
    Total of first preference votes: 2,778

    The percentage poll was 22.7% and the electoral quota was 1,390.

    Bellshill is in the neighbouring constituency to Rutherglen.

    SNP are going to get humped , they are as popular as Tories down south and Useless and the green weirdos make it worse day by day. The MSP's are spineless grifters only there for the money or are friends /family of the mafia running the show.
    God help us when the Labour shit get back in
    Jeezo, at the least the weather is nice!

    Would you go for the SNP or Labour, given a straight choice? That's the question for a lot of people in Scotland.
    Neither for me, I will vote for a real Independence party if available or NOT vote. I refuse to pick between two sets of grifters.
    PS, life is great and weather wonderful, politics sucks as much up here as it does down south. Too many greedy morons around, shoudl be a culling below a certain IQ and start again.
    You should team up with Leon. He has an acute IQ-dar.
    great minds and all that
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,314

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




    About as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike if a referendum isn't around the corner. I wonder what SKS will say about the prospect of indyref2 if the result of that poll played out in a GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




    And No is therefore the settled wlll of over half of Scottish voters, excluding don't knows.

    SNP voteshare now down 7% from 2019 and a huge 11.5% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour since the last UK general election in Scotland
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    First contact from Conservatives in S&A. 'Policing survey' but with majority non-policing questions, including local concerns, priorities, voting history and voting intention, all useful for targeting. Letter is quite S&A specific. Be interesting to know whether a similar 'survey' has been seen elsewhere.

    So, do I, as (presently) part of the anti-growthTory coalition indicate on this survey that I'm a bit of a floating voter and would love to spend some time with Tory canvassers discussing the finer points of Brexit and probity in public life? :innocent:

    Somewhat sadly, I have never been knocked up by a canvasser. Might be my chance!
    #neverkissedatory
    #neverbeenknockedupbyatory

    :lol:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Why should your wife hating the Daily Mail but loving their crossword puzzles 'terrify the Conservative Party?'

    Sounds like you had a nice break in the Isle of Man anyway
    You really are strange

    She didn't say she hated the mail those are your words

    She was angry with the Johnson coverage but suggested if we retain it at least we can see what the enemy is saying

    Its coverage this morning is the enemy of honesty, decency and integrity something my wife and millions others hold dear but it seems that you do not recognise it sadly
    HY doesn't care about honesty, decency or integrity. Winning is the only concern.

    Your point was perfectly valid. The Heil is a mass market news platform, possibly *the* mass market platform. And when it dives off through unreality and makes stories and opinions up, the comments are hugely negative.

    Lets all be non-partisan for a minute. There are millions of decent respectable conservatives out there and they deserve a party worth their vote. They don't currently have one, and the media outlets supposedly representing their position instead have been corrupted by Trumpian alt-facts and open lies.

    Some people have been sucked down the rabbit hole, and for those people GBeebies and the Express are there. But for the mainstream of conservatives? It gets to the point when the media lose their audience and people just switch off listening.

    What did it for the Tories in 1997 wasn't just Tony Blair. It was the absolute collapse of the Tory vote. Labour went up by 2m. Tories fell by 4.5m. The same is brewing for 2024. Even if millions of 2019 Tory voters simply stay at home it will be a cataclysm. That HY cannot see this is baffling.
    Almost a million voted Referendum Party or UKIP in 1997 too, Major lost voters to his right he won in 1992.

    Sunak needs to avoid losing voters on his right who liked Boris to RefUK or Boris fans staying home on polling day as well as reduce leakage of more centrist voters to Starmer Labour and the LDs
    Which is why Sunak is stuck like a rabbit in headlights. Whichever way he tries to move the party's positioning, he will lose some voters, even if he gains others. As a Centre-rightist Dad, I'd obviously prefer him to shuffle in my direction, and I sincerely believe that would be a net gain for the blue team. But I can understand why he feels he can't.

    It's a looong time since I did GCSE history; are there any fighting on two front strategies that have ended well?
    That said, Starmer also had this choice with the Corbyn loonies. It is to his credit that he cut them adrift. Sunak needs to do the same with Johnson loons. It might encourage me to vote Conservative for the first time since 2015 and probably could help him rather than hinder him. He needs to take soundings within the parliamentary party.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,168

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




    About as useful as an ashtray on a motorbike if a referendum isn't around the corner. I wonder what SKS will say about the prospect of indyref2 if the result of that poll played out in a GE.
    He'll have to say several things when asked about it, and EU membership, before a GE. It'll be interesting to see what he cobbles together, after all he has several previous postions on these issues to draw upon.




  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    You expect the Tories to do a little better than a more or less total wipe out?

    In Surrey?

    There there, HY, go and have a little lie down.
    I expect the Tories to hold seats like Spelthorne and Surrey Heath and Woking in Surrey despite no longer controlling the council there as well as hold Reigate where they still control the council even if they lose strong Remain seats like Esher and Walton and Surrey SW (or its 2 successors), Guildford and maybe Mole Valley
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    We are now witnessing NATO supplied anti-air systems, operated by Ukrainians, protecting visiting African leaders from a possibly deadly bombardment by Russian missiles. The absurdity of Putin's war in a nutshell.

    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1669627418087243776?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    When Bozo was elected I remember posting on here that eventually that decision would destroy the Tory party.

    Nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 778
    edited June 2023
    Techne poll has arrived this morning.
    https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/archive/

    C 28 (-1)
    L 44 (+2)
    LD 11 (-1)
    SNP 3 (-)
    G 5 (-1)
    R 6 (+1)

    Is this the start of a move back to Labour?

    Techne is in general better for the Conservatives by about 1% point than the average of polling companies.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited June 2023

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    The Mail has a new editor in the last 18 months who is very pro-Bozo.

    The last editor was substantially responsible for the decline of Boris's polling and reputation, because he ran stories for about a year on the extent of his lying, from the Paterson case all the way to the following Spring / Summer, around the time he was replaced by the current one. This period also coincided with a huge decline in the Tory fortunes and polling as mentioned , partly because the Mail also reported every inch of the Partygate stories, almost every day for those six months, too. It may be too late to save Boris and Hard-Brexitism, but the Mail still has huge power to move rightwing voters .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Broken, sleazy SNP and Tories on the slide!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    You expect the Tories to do a little better than a more or less total wipe out?

    In Surrey?

    There there, HY, go and have a little lie down.
    I expect the Tories to hold seats like Spelthorne and Surrey Heath and Woking in Surrey despite no longer controlling the council there as well as hold Reigate where they still control the council even if they lose strong Remain seats like Esher and Walton and Surrey SW (or its 2 successors), Guildford and maybe Mole Valley
    I think the Tories will also hold Epsom and Ewell under Rishi
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,067
    HYUFD said:

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




    And No is therefore the settled wlll of over half of Scottish voters, excluding don't knows.

    SNP voteshare now down 7% from 2019 and a huge 11.5% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour since the last UK general election in Scotland
    If the increasing disassociation between SNP support and independence support continues, you will no longer be able to use one as a proxy for the other.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
    He wasn't a policeman, he was former head of the police regulator who was previously chief executive of Harrow Council
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lockwood_(public_servant)
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,067

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Broken, sleazy SNP and Tories on the slide!
    Broken and sleazy sums them both up perfectly!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




    And No is therefore the settled wlll of over half of Scottish voters, excluding don't knows.

    SNP voteshare now down 7% from 2019 and a huge 11.5% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour since the last UK general election in Scotland
    If the increasing disassociation between SNP support and independence support continues, you will no longer be able to use one as a proxy for the other.
    If the increasing disassociation between SNP support and independence continues, there will be a Unionist majority at Holyrood in 2026 which will vote down any indyref2. So all independence polls would be irrelevant anyway
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468
    eek said:

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    When Bozo was elected I remember posting on here that eventually that decision would destroy the Tory party.

    Nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion.
    Sadly, by 2019 a Boris leadership was inevitable. Had Hunt, Stewart or anyone else somehow won, Boris would have just kept flinging dung at them, same as he did to May (and arguably, to Cameron). He was bally well going to have his turn in the big chair.

    I wonder how far back in time you would need to go to stop him? He would need to have been a much smaller Boris. Maybe the decisive moment was when the Telegraph gave him a platform after he was sacked by the Times.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    You expect the Tories to do a little better than a more or less total wipe out?

    In Surrey?

    There there, HY, go and have a little lie down.
    I expect the Tories to hold seats like Spelthorne and Surrey Heath and Woking in Surrey despite no longer controlling the council there as well as hold Reigate where they still control the council even if they lose strong Remain seats like Esher and Walton and Surrey SW (or its 2 successors), Guildford and maybe Mole Valley
    I think the Tories will also hold Epsom and Ewell under Rishi
    If the Conservatives are in trouble in Epsom and Ewell then it will be a complete bloodbath.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,156

    Techne poll has arrived this morning.
    https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/archive/

    C 28 (-1)
    L 44 (+2)
    LD 11 (-1)
    SNP 3 (-)
    G 5 (-1)
    R 6 (+1)

    Is this the start of a move back to Labour?

    Techne is in general better for the Conservatives by about 1% point than the average of polling companies.

    Broken, sleazy Tories, LibDems and Greens on the slide!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352
    eek said:

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    When Bozo was elected I remember posting on here that eventually that decision would destroy the Tory party.

    Nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion.
    I had the same instinct. It was a Faustian pact, where the Devil would exact his payment in the end. The right wing of the Tory Party, with help from the more gullible and stupid members thought that the short term advantage of the electoral appeal of a celebrity was worth the risk of putting someone in power who should not be in charge of a school sweet shop.

    Will it "destroy" the Tory Party? That might be wishful thinking by some. Even Corbyn did not destroy Labour, but there is no doubt that the Conservative Party selling its erstwhile sensible soul to a load of populist egotists has done massive damage in the short and possibly medium term.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    Christ. I imagine everyone has ducked under the table at Chez Cyclefree.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081

    eek said:

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    When Bozo was elected I remember posting on here that eventually that decision would destroy the Tory party.

    Nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion.
    I had the same instinct. It was a Faustian pact, where the Devil would exact his payment in the end. The right wing of the Tory Party, with help from the more gullible and stupid members thought that the short term advantage of the electoral appeal of a celebrity was worth the risk of putting someone in power who should not be in charge of a school sweet shop.

    Will it "destroy" the Tory Party? That might be wishful thinking by some. Even Corbyn did not destroy Labour, but there is no doubt that the Conservative Party selling its erstwhile sensible soul to a load of populist egotists has done massive damage in the short and possibly medium term.
    The advantages of not having Corbyn in No. 10 were worth it even if the Tories are never in power again.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352
    HYUFD said:

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
    He wasn't a policeman, he was former head of the police regulator who was previously chief executive of Harrow Council
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lockwood_(public_servant)
    I am not sure that makes it a lot better
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177
    Eabhal said:

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    Christ. I imagine everyone has ducked under the table at Chez Cyclefree.
    I think Cyclefree (and others, such as myself) have long considered the various police "watchdog" organisations as part of the Policing Problem. They certainly haven't dealt with the ongoing and manifest problems in the police. It is unsurprising that they have internal problems as well.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    Good morning from Douglas

    On our way home this afternoon from a lovely holiday with fantastic weather and have completed the whole TT course including the mountain road, albeit in our car

    We have only had the hotel wifi so really good to avoid the toxic Johnson and his sycophants continuing to debase honesty and integrity

    Sunak has a moment on monday to become his own PM and vote for the report and not abstain by being somewher else

    We have the digital mail because of my wife's love of the puzzles but even she was angry with its coverage today and we discussed cancelling it, but as ever a wise lady she responded saying 'at least we can see what the enemy is saying'

    Those words should terrify the conservative party

    Meanwhile in Surrey Heath another two gains for the Lib Dems in the heart of Torydom on earth.

    It seems like the Tories have finally alienated their core voters beyond the point of no return.

    LDs always gain council by elections. However Sunak still leads Starmer as preferred PM in the bluewall with Redfield, even if Starmer leads Sunak as preferred PM in the UK overall now.

    While wealthy voters in Surrey may vote LD locally (not just to protest against Brexit but also as a NIMBY protest vote against new housing), a general election is a different matter. For if they elect a LD MP who votes to make Starmer PM and put Labour in government that means higher taxes for them. So I expect Sunak's Tories to do better in Surrey at the general election than local elections would suggest, given the Tories don't control a single district council in Surrey anymore except Reigate
    You expect the Tories to do a little better than a more or less total wipe out?

    In Surrey?

    There there, HY, go and have a little lie down.
    I expect the Tories to hold seats like Spelthorne and Surrey Heath and Woking in Surrey despite no longer controlling the council there as well as hold Reigate where they still control the council even if they lose strong Remain seats like Esher and Walton and Surrey SW (or its 2 successors), Guildford and maybe Mole Valley
    I think the Tories will also hold Epsom and Ewell under Rishi
    If the Conservatives are in trouble in Epsom and Ewell then it will be a complete bloodbath.
    Based on the local elections the Conservatives will hold seats like Dartford, Walsall, Basildon, Harlow and Dudley Blair won in 1997 and 2001 and Torbay which the LDs won from 1997-2015.

    So it is more the realignment post Brexit which means Surrey is less safe for the Tories but white working class areas are better prospects for the blues
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    HYUFD said:

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
    He wasn't a policeman, he was former head of the police regulator who was previously chief executive of Harrow Council
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lockwood_(public_servant)
    Which is responsible for conducting investigations into serious misconduct or criminal offences by police.

    The leadership of both the police and their regulator come from tainted pools.

    Unpleasant irony.
    ...He was appointed to head the IOPC at its inception in 2018. As Director General, Lockwood also chaired the IOPC Board, the majority of which is made up of Non-Executive Directors. The Board advises the Director General and with him sets the strategy for the organisation. In October 2019 Lockwood published an op-ed in The Guardian, defending an investigation his organization had performed into the case of an alleged VIP paedophile ring..
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036
    Morning all, and Happy Ashes Day! 🏏

    Been looking forward to today for a long time…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    HYUFD said:

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
    He wasn't a policeman, he was former head of the police regulator who was previously chief executive of Harrow Council
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lockwood_(public_servant)
    I am not sure that makes it a lot better
    No but you can't blame the police themselves, he was a civil servant essentially
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,260
    edited June 2023
    The thing is, is there's any serious revival of the the Borisovian popularity, the Tories are in very serious trouble.

    At the moment his reputation is gone, and Sunak and the rest of the Tories can reasonably safely ignore him. After a year of Boris columns and pro-Boris revivalist spin by the Mail, Telegraph and Express, if they think their readers will accept it, though ? Perhaps not, or certainly not to the same extent.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177

    Techne poll has arrived this morning.
    https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/archive/

    C 28 (-1)
    L 44 (+2)
    LD 11 (-1)
    SNP 3 (-)
    G 5 (-1)
    R 6 (+1)

    Is this the start of a move back to Labour?

    Techne is in general better for the Conservatives by about 1% point than the average of polling companies.

    I think that the run of polls has been remarkably stable. Labour is 40%+ consistently. The Conservatives has settled around 30%-. which is probably their "outer" core vote.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081
    So. I'll ask this question now rather than four tests in: is there any free, or failing that cheap, way of seeing the Ashes on telly or online?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914
    HYUFD said:

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
    He wasn't a policeman, he was former head of the police regulator who was previously chief executive of Harrow Council
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lockwood_(public_servant)
    So the policeman's "policeman". In some way that is even worse.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352
    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    When Bozo was elected I remember posting on here that eventually that decision would destroy the Tory party.

    Nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion.
    I had the same instinct. It was a Faustian pact, where the Devil would exact his payment in the end. The right wing of the Tory Party, with help from the more gullible and stupid members thought that the short term advantage of the electoral appeal of a celebrity was worth the risk of putting someone in power who should not be in charge of a school sweet shop.

    Will it "destroy" the Tory Party? That might be wishful thinking by some. Even Corbyn did not destroy Labour, but there is no doubt that the Conservative Party selling its erstwhile sensible soul to a load of populist egotists has done massive damage in the short and possibly medium term.
    The advantages of not having Corbyn in No. 10 were worth it even if the Tories are never in power again.
    I think any of the Conservative leadership contenders could have beaten Corbyn. The electorate were collectively terrified by him at that point in the electoral cycle. The only reason why he came close in the previous election was because many people who voted for him thought he didn't have a chance.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    Cookie said:

    The advantages of not having Corbyn in No. 10 were worth it even if the Tories are never in power again.

    That appeared to be true at the time. I am not sure it actually is.

    Liz Truss made it to No 10, and was out 7 weeks later.

    If Corbyn had made it all the way, I am not certain he would have stayed long enough to do as much damage as BoZo and the insane clown posse
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    If anything happens to Biden, Newsom is one to watch.
    https://fallows.substack.com/p/fox-news-worth-watching-an-hour-with
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
    He wasn't a policeman, he was former head of the police regulator who was previously chief executive of Harrow Council
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lockwood_(public_servant)
    So the policeman's "policeman". In some way that is even worse.
    Of course while he has been charged we must also remember though he hasn't been convicted at this stage and may not be when it goes to court
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    Nigelb said:

    If anything happens to Biden, Newsom is one to watch.
    https://fallows.substack.com/p/fox-news-worth-watching-an-hour-with

    A liberal California governor, may as well hand the rustbelt back to Trump on a plate and the EC and the Presidency if the Democrats pick him if anything happens to stop President Biden being their nominee again
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,081

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    When Bozo was elected I remember posting on here that eventually that decision would destroy the Tory party.

    Nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion.
    I had the same instinct. It was a Faustian pact, where the Devil would exact his payment in the end. The right wing of the Tory Party, with help from the more gullible and stupid members thought that the short term advantage of the electoral appeal of a celebrity was worth the risk of putting someone in power who should not be in charge of a school sweet shop.

    Will it "destroy" the Tory Party? That might be wishful thinking by some. Even Corbyn did not destroy Labour, but there is no doubt that the Conservative Party selling its erstwhile sensible soul to a load of populist egotists has done massive damage in the short and possibly medium term.
    The advantages of not having Corbyn in No. 10 were worth it even if the Tories are never in power again.
    I think any of the Conservative leadership contenders could have beaten Corbyn. The electorate were collectively terrified by him at that point in the electoral cycle. The only reason why he came close in the previous election was because many people who voted for him thought he didn't have a chance.
    Well I don't. I think the best that Hunt would have done is to replicate the 2017 result. But we'll never know.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited June 2023
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    eek said:

    It’s interesting, though unsurprising, that most of the Tory press has swung behind Johnson. Only the very pro-Sunak Times has bucked the trend. What this means, of course, is that the story will run and run. And if Johnson does start writing for the Mail, it’s going to get very difficult indeed for Sunak, the man who very publicly backed him as the Tories’ saviour just four years ago.

    When Bozo was elected I remember posting on here that eventually that decision would destroy the Tory party.

    Nothing that has happened since has changed that opinion.
    I had the same instinct. It was a Faustian pact, where the Devil would exact his payment in the end. The right wing of the Tory Party, with help from the more gullible and stupid members thought that the short term advantage of the electoral appeal of a celebrity was worth the risk of putting someone in power who should not be in charge of a school sweet shop.

    Will it "destroy" the Tory Party? That might be wishful thinking by some. Even Corbyn did not destroy Labour, but there is no doubt that the Conservative Party selling its erstwhile sensible soul to a load of populist egotists has done massive damage in the short and possibly medium term.
    The advantages of not having Corbyn in No. 10 were worth it even if the Tories are never in power again.
    I think any of the Conservative leadership contenders could have beaten Corbyn. The electorate were collectively terrified by him at that point in the electoral cycle. The only reason why he came close in the previous election was because many people who voted for him thought he didn't have a chance.
    Well I don't. I think the best that Hunt would have done is to replicate the 2017 result. But we'll never know.
    Yes, the redwall would have stayed Labour with Hunt Tory PM and the Brexit Party stood in more marginals held by the Tories
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,168
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




    And No is therefore the settled wlll of over half of Scottish voters, excluding don't knows.

    SNP voteshare now down 7% from 2019 and a huge 11.5% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour since the last UK general election in Scotland
    If the increasing disassociation between SNP support and independence support continues, you will no longer be able to use one as a proxy for the other.
    If the increasing disassociation between SNP support and independence continues, there will be a Unionist majority at Holyrood in 2026 which will vote down any indyref2. So all independence polls would be irrelevant anyway
    You can instigate Indyref2 by a majority vote at Holyrood? Who knew?!!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    Cookie said:

    So. I'll ask this question now rather than four tests in: is there any free, or failing that cheap, way of seeing the Ashes on telly or online?

    DNS/VPN fuckery then stream Channel 9 from Australia. I don't give a fuck about cricket but that's how I watched the Bathurst 6 Hour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The former head of the police watchdog has been charged with raping a girl under 16 and indecent assault.

    Michael Lockwood, the former director general of the Independent Office for Police Conduct, faces six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against the girl, the Crown Prosecution Service said.

    Rosemary Ainslie, head of the Special Crime Division at the CPS, said: "After carefully considering all of the evidence provided to us by Humberside Police, we have authorised charges against Michael Lockwood, 64, for nine offences under the Sexual Offences Act 1956.

    "Mr Lockwood has been charged with six counts of indecent assault and three offences of rape against a girl under the age of 16, alleged to have been committed during the 1980s.


    https://news.sky.com/story/ex-police-watchdog-chief-michael-lockwood-charged-with-raping-girl-under-16-and-indecent-assault-12903509

    That is really really shocking. How are the police in this country ever going to regain trust?
    He wasn't a policeman, he was former head of the police regulator who was previously chief executive of Harrow Council
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lockwood_(public_servant)
    I am not sure that makes it a lot better
    No but you can't blame the police themselves, he was a civil servant essentially
    What's 'blame' got to do with it ?

    This is about public confidence in policing. If their regulator is as riddled with rot as the police themselves, there can be no such confidence.

    We are assured that things are changing, but so far there's previous little evidence of that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Not much evidence of an SNP recovery based on the Belshill by-election or this:

    Savanta UK
    @Savanta_UK
    ·
    2h
    🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for
    @TheScotsman


    SNP lead narrows, but very marginally.

    🎗️SNP 38% (-1)
    🌹LAB 34% (+1)
    🌳CON 17% (-2)
    🔶LD 7% (+1)
    ⬜️Other 4% (=)

    Labour would win 22 seats on the new boundaries according to Electoral Calculus.

    Still, Indy going quite nicely. Yes seems to be the settled will of around half of Scots voters.




    And No is therefore the settled wlll of over half of Scottish voters, excluding don't knows.

    SNP voteshare now down 7% from 2019 and a huge 11.5% swing from SNP to Scottish Labour since the last UK general election in Scotland
    If the increasing disassociation between SNP support and independence support continues, you will no longer be able to use one as a proxy for the other.
    If the increasing disassociation between SNP support and independence continues, there will be a Unionist majority at Holyrood in 2026 which will vote down any indyref2. So all independence polls would be irrelevant anyway
    You can instigate Indyref2 by a majority vote at Holyrood? Who knew?!!
    No, you can refuse it at Westminster forever.

    Just a Labour UK government would be more likely to consider a majority Holyrood vote for an indyref2 than a Tory UK government which would continue to refuse indyref2 indefinitely indyref2 majority at Holyrood or not
This discussion has been closed.