Tactical error from Dorries if this is becasue she's left off. She could claim ideological basis for criticism before or because of being truthful about the leadership's failings, but a sudden quitting makes anything she'll now say as being personal.
I understand that all British people ever talk about is trans issues but it is quite off putting to a “citizen of the world” like me. You sound deranged and obsessed
Perhaps if you posted a picture of a plate with food on it, or a glass containing a drink, then that would distract people. The world eagerly awaits.
As requested. Cincinnati “chili”
It is genuinely disgusting. Cheese noodles cumin cinnamon vinegar chocolate and chili. The cheese is industrial cheddar and cold
The cumin sounds a particularly unpleasant addition
It is. Yet many of the locals GENUiNELY love it. They enthuse. They make it at home. It is charming in its own way. The deep fried Mars Bar of the Midwest
Have any other disgusting local foods achieved international fame besides the deep-fried Mars bar and poutine? Somebody should write a book about them.
Shame, you'll at least have an increased awareness of menu options tomorrow.
I thought the roast Tarantulas of Skuon were probably the horriblest delicacy anywhere - but you have surely proved me wrong. Jeeez
Never fancied that German cheese that's full of live mites.
Most good cheese is, you just can’t see them. It’s the nutty flavour.
Sorry.
The cheese in question is casu marzu. It’s from Sardinia not Germany. It’s banned by the EU but quite easy to get in the mountains, in season
A friend of mine tried it and pronounced it delicious, the only thing that unnerved him was the fact he had to wear goggles during the meal, as the mites occasionally jump out at you, and start eating your eyes
Dorries - parting shot to Sunak over the honours list
Something significant has changed my mind
I do hope Sunak doesn't allow her ennoblement. She is the female personification (where Johnson is the male) of how Johnson and his populist supporters wrecked the Tory Party It is idiots like her that have doomed us to years and years of stifling public sector bloating wealth destroying Labour rule that is inevitable after the next GE.
It would be a significant act by Sunak and hopefully the start of the end of Johnson influence
Is Voter ID going to be mandatory in the bye election? With some evidence suggesting it has hurt the Tories just as much as Labour, I could imagine an enthusiasm gap for those who go to vote without ID on them and then not coming back depending on party…
Tories are 11/8; LDs 4/5 (Ladbrokes). I'd suggest the value is with the Tories there.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul · 49s Replying to @JohnRentoul and @NadineDorries Applying the average swings in N Shropshire and Tiverton to Mid Beds produces a come-from-3rd-place Lib Dem win
You could be right. Since your Googlefoo is clearly superior to mine, would you mind checking GIN1138 too? tia
I went through all the comments that came up searching for "go nads" and picked the oldest one. It was about two pages' worth. So if the search functions as I think it does, it's TSE who gets to say "first" (yet again).
Is Voter ID going to be mandatory in the bye election? With some evidence suggesting it has hurt the Tories just as much as Labour, I could imagine an enthusiasm gap for those who go to vote without ID on them and then not coming back depending on party…
It's the sort of seat that should always be safe, but for the very nadir of a government. We might not be at the nadir but we're not very far off from it, making anything possible.
Dorries - parting shot to Sunak over the honours list
Something significant has changed my mind
I do hope Sunak doesn't allow her ennoblement. She is the female personification (where Johnson is the male) of how Johnson and his populist supporters wrecked the Tory Party It is idiots like her that have doomed us to years and years of stifling public sector bloating wealth destroying Labour rule that is inevitable after the next GE.
It would be a significant act by Sunak and hopefully the start of the end of Johnson influence
I guess she's been told her peerage has been blocked:
Nadine Dorries, five hours before she resigned, triggering a by-election [VIDEO] "The last thing I would want to do is cause a by election in my constituency"
I guess she's been told her peerage has been blocked:
Nadine Dorries, five hours before she resigned, triggering a by-election [VIDEO] "The last thing I would want to do is cause a by election in my constituency"
A very kind observation. But perhaps CHB is only in transit.
I have a soft spot for the old Woolwich Dodkyard myself - sort of bits and pieces in between, and poking out from under, trading estates and council flats.
A very kind observation. But perhaps CHB is only in transit.
I have a soft spot for the old Woolwich Dodkyard myself - sort of bits and pieces in between, and poking out from under, trading estates and council flats.
I think I'll give you some latitude on that remark
Already incoming over Boris Johnson's resignation honours list
Former loyal Johnson aide:
‘It’s a disgrace. It’s rewards for failure all round. Boris has slammed the door shut on the prospect of return to frontline British politics and trashed what remained of his legacy'
So the Conservatives should narrowly hold the seat in the by election but Labour are by far their closest opponents and could take it with a good campaign.
If the LDs also target it however that could ensure a Conservative hold even on a low voteshare as the opposition vote is split. Albeit the LDs did take Shropshire North from 3rd in a similar position when Labour weren't polling as well as they are now
A great argument for the abolition of the ludicrously anachronistic and often arcane honours system.
I will not change my mind on this. Ever. Well until that inevitable moment in the future of "Arise Sir Nigel"
There are some quick reforms which could mitigate the worst aspects of it, if people did not want to simply abolish. I won't bang on about all of them again, though I would bring up attendance requirements, upper limit on chamber size, restrictions on those holding political office, and prohibition on anyone who has made any donation to a political party over a very small amount within a period of a full parlimentary term prior to appointment.
I'm less fussed about gongs, since those are just baubles, though it's still often dodgy.
So the Conservatives should narrowly hold the seat in by election but Labour are by far their closest opponents and could take it with a good campaign.
If the LDs also target it however that could ensure a Conservative hold even on a low voteshare as the opposition vote is split
Is Voter ID going to be mandatory in the bye election? With some evidence suggesting it has hurt the Tories just as much as Labour, I could imagine an enthusiasm gap for those who go to vote without ID on them and then not coming back depending on party…
It's the sort of seat that should always be safe, but for the very nadir of a government. We might not be at the nadir but we're not very far off from it, making anything possible.
It's a good test of the unofficial arrangement that Labour and LibDems don't campaign hard in seats where the other was second. Labour will certainly use that poll as well as the result last time, but if the LibDems do their "only we can win here" thing (despite not really having a shot from 12%) then there will be enough confusion for the Tories to hold it.
Already incoming over Boris Johnson's resignation honours list
Former loyal Johnson aide:
‘It’s a disgrace. It’s rewards for failure all round. Boris has slammed the door shut on the prospect of return to frontline British politics and trashed what remained of his legacy'
Although I'm not sure where he'd have found "rewards for success"...
Let us hope this is the start of the move away from Johnson, and to a more one nation conservative party which may take a long time probably in opposition
You have to demonstrate a long pattern of diligently working to undermine the true enemy of the people: other leftists with views marginally different to your own.
Already incoming over Boris Johnson's resignation honours list
Former loyal Johnson aide:
‘It’s a disgrace. It’s rewards for failure all round. Boris has slammed the door shut on the prospect of return to frontline British politics and trashed what remained of his legacy'
Although I'm not sure where he'd have found "rewards for success"...
I'm in two minds about PM resignation honours. If you allow them, then they will hand out gongs to friends and lickspittles, and if you remove the ability to give peerages then that is of limited harm though still grubby - but they have no pardon power like some elected leaders resigning, so maybe you allow something.
But it has not always been done, and personally I don't think they should be able to do it.
Tactical error from Dorries if this is becasue she's left off. She could claim ideological basis for criticism before or because of being truthful about the leadership's failings, but a sudden quitting makes anything she'll now say as being personal.
It's really weird. I mean, I guess it *could* be some sort of 4D chess from Nads, but I don't really see what she gets out of this. Nor is it good for the Tories - even a slim win will not look great in a seat that ought to be as safe as houses. But it just looks like she's flouncing in a strop at not getting her peerage. Actually quite funny, really.
Already incoming over Boris Johnson's resignation honours list
Former loyal Johnson aide:
‘It’s a disgrace. It’s rewards for failure all round. Boris has slammed the door shut on the prospect of return to frontline British politics and trashed what remained of his legacy'
Although I'm not sure where he'd have found "rewards for success"...
Let us hope this is the start of the move away from Johnson, and to a more one nation conservative party which may take a long time probably in opposition
We are already led by a one-nation tory. … or rather, one Asian tory
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
Boris’ resignation list is a pile of yuk? Colour me surprised.
Time to end the whole filthy system. Let’s properly get the Lords reformed, then let’s remove the power of the PM to hand out gongs - make it a genuinely independent cross party (with lay representation) process that goes straight up to the Palace once the proposals/vetting has been done.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
Most everyone's too polite to say it, but it would be better for the GOP if Trump suddenly died.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
Most everyone's too polite to say it, but it would be better for the GOP if Trump suddenly died.
Is Voter ID going to be mandatory in the bye election? With some evidence suggesting it has hurt the Tories just as much as Labour, I could imagine an enthusiasm gap for those who go to vote without ID on them and then not coming back depending on party…
It's the sort of seat that should always be safe, but for the very nadir of a government. We might not be at the nadir but we're not very far off from it, making anything possible.
It's a good test of the unofficial arrangement that Labour and LibDems don't campaign hard in seats where the other was second. Labour will certainly use that poll as well as the result last time, but if the LibDems do their "only we can win here" thing (despite not really having a shot from 12%) then there will be enough confusion for the Tories to hold it.
Except the LDs clearly do have a shot from 12%.
In Tiverton they were on 14.8 and Labour 19.5, versus the Tories on 60.2. It wasn't even close. In Mid-Bedforshire the proportions are 12.6 for LDs, 21.7 for Labour, and 59.8 for the Tories. So a bit higher for Labour but still comparable. In North Shropshire the LDs were even furtherback and on a mere 10%.
I think in by-elections the arrangement is off, and the public have demonstrated they can tell who really has the best chance, whatever the past results.
Yes, there is a risk of confusion meaning the Tories hold on, but past victories make it hard for Labour to claim 'only they can win' for themselves.
Already incoming over Boris Johnson's resignation honours list
Former loyal Johnson aide:
‘It’s a disgrace. It’s rewards for failure all round. Boris has slammed the door shut on the prospect of return to frontline British politics and trashed what remained of his legacy'
How sleazy do you have to be to accept an "honour" from BoZo..?
Michael Fabricant sounds like a Knight to remember....
I always thought Fabricant would be a good person to intercede between William and Harry and lower the tensions between those on the royal line of succession.
Tactical error from Dorries if this is becasue she's left off. She could claim ideological basis for criticism before or because of being truthful about the leadership's failings, but a sudden quitting makes anything she'll now say as being personal.
It's really weird. I mean, I guess it *could* be some sort of 4D chess from Nads, but I don't really see what she gets out of this. Nor is it good for the Tories - even a slim win will not look great in a seat that ought to be as safe as houses. But it just looks like she's flouncing in a strop at not getting her peerage. Actually quite funny, really.
Even a delay of a few months would have been something.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
I think the point that true leaders help shape perceptions is a good one, they could at least try - it's notable that they have been far more bootlicking on this one, despite it being a stronger case than the other, showing some of them felt under threat for not being 'loyal' enough, even those running against the man.
How sleazy do you have to be to accept an "honour" from BoZo..?
Michael Fabricant sounds like a Knight to remember....
I always thought Fabricant would be a good person to intercede between William and Harry and lower the tensions between those on the royal line of succession.
I always imagined he was Bozo's even more idiotic half brother. One of Stanley's secret love children. Perhaps Stanley donated the knighthood to him in the hope he might get a peerage when Sir Michael Fabricant becomes leader of the Conservative and Madfuckers Party?
How sleazy do you have to be to accept an "honour" from BoZo..?
Michael Fabricant sounds like a Knight to remember....
I always thought Fabricant would be a good person to intercede between William and Harry and lower the tensions between those on the royal line of succession.
One look at Fabricant and you can't help but think: heir peace
Nadine neither in the Lords nor the Commons. That's a true win-win by any standards.
I worry slightly that Nadine Dorries might have resigned for health reasons, so abrupt was it, and she does not seem to be hanging around to vote against banning Boris.
Poor Andrea Jenkyns. Gives us the finger and gets a Damehood. Had she done both middle fingers and perhaps "fuck you scrubbers" she'd have got a seat in the House of Lords.
Nadine neither in the Lords nor the Commons. That's a true win-win by any standards.
I worry slightly that Nadine Dorries might have resigned for health reasons, so abrupt was it, and she does not seem to be hanging around to vote against banning Boris.
OTOH it does correlate rather closely in time with her prospective ladyshipity going down the pan.
Poor Andrea Jenkyns. Gives us the finger and gets a Damehood. Had she done both middle fingers and perhaps "fuck you scrubbers" she'd have got a seat in the House of Lords.
How sleazy do you have to be to accept an "honour" from BoZo..?
Michael Fabricant sounds like a Knight to remember....
I always thought Fabricant would be a good person to intercede between William and Harry and lower the tensions between those on the royal line of succession.
One look at Fabricant and you can't help but think: heir peace
Nice set up....the question is, when the inevitable requirement for compensation arises, someone is bound to ask "who is toupee?"
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
I think the point that true leaders help shape perceptions is a good one, they could at least try - it's notable that they have been far more bootlicking on this one, despite it being a stronger case than the other, showing some of them felt under threat for not being 'loyal' enough, even those running against the man.
There's also the issue that damage done now can be severe enough to cause major problems long term.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
Asa Hutchinson has also said Trump should not run. I feel we should give credit where it's due, even if most people will not know who he is (Gov of Arkansas, former Congressman).
Nadine neither in the Lords nor the Commons. That's a true win-win by any standards.
I worry slightly that Nadine Dorries might have resigned for health reasons, so abrupt was it, and she does not seem to be hanging around to vote against banning Boris.
I have a mental image of her saying “if you won’t allow the peerage I’ll just resign then” as a threat, and Rishi saying “no problem I’ll just ring the Chancellor and it’ll all be sorted”, with her being appointed to the necessary role before she could retract it.
Nadine neither in the Lords nor the Commons. That's a true win-win by any standards.
I worry slightly that Nadine Dorries might have resigned for health reasons, so abrupt was it, and she does not seem to be hanging around to vote against banning Boris.
OTOH it does correlate rather closely in time with her prospective ladyshipity going down the pan.
It does, and so could be a fit of pique, but if she is blaming Starmer then why not hang around to ask awkward PMQs, vote for Boris against the Privileges Committee recommendations, and collect a big cheque when losing her seat next year?
Nadine neither in the Lords nor the Commons. That's a true win-win by any standards.
I worry slightly that Nadine Dorries might have resigned for health reasons, so abrupt was it, and she does not seem to be hanging around to vote against banning Boris.
PS Admittedly a bit of a hint of tiredness with it all here - before and after versions of her tweet.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
Asa Hutchinson has also said Trump should not run. I feel we should give credit where it's due, even if most people will not know who he is.
Blimey, I'd not even heard of him, so I assume he's an even bigger no hoper than Christie.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
I think the point that true leaders help shape perceptions is a good one, they could at least try - it's notable that they have been far more bootlicking on this one, despite it being a stronger case than the other, showing some of them felt under threat for not being 'loyal' enough, even those running against the man.
Last time in 2020 Biden won with 51%, based on the poll in the thread header Biden would win with 61% next year ie a landslide defeat on a Reagan, Nixon '72, LBJ '64 or FDR scale if Trump was charged and convicted of a serious crime and GOP nominee for President again. If that was the result, even the base would have to move on from Trump
The Lib Dems must be saying " We love Nadine". She has given the party a great chance whether the by election is held in July or October. If I were Central Office I would go for July, get it out of the way as quickly as possible, the sooner the Lib Dems win, the sooner the result will be forgotten.
As this is a political betting site, can someone please help me?
How do I put a bet on for the Mid Bedfordshire by election which will happen following Nadine Dories announcing that she is standing down with immediate effect?
Poor Andrea Jenkyns. Gives us the finger and gets a Damehood. Had she done both middle fingers and perhaps "fuck you scrubbers" she'd have got a seat in the House of Lords.
My biggest sin in life.
Helping Andrea Jenkyns get elected.
She truly is no classy lady. But perhaps she is all woman.
"Ben Houchen’s regeneration project in Teesside is currently subject to a govt investigation re the governance, finance and value for money of the huge Teesworks regeneration project in Redcar."
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
I think the point that true leaders help shape perceptions is a good one, they could at least try - it's notable that they have been far more bootlicking on this one, despite it being a stronger case than the other, showing some of them felt under threat for not being 'loyal' enough, even those running against the man.
Last time Biden won with 51%, based on the poll in the thread header Biden would win with 61% ie a landslide defeat on a Reagan, Nixon '72, LBJ '64 or FDR scale if Trump was charged and convicted of a serious crime and GOP nominee for President again. If that was the result, even the base would have to move on from Trump
I don't think he'll be convicted in time personally. And though that should be the result, they're clearly willing to accept a lot, even a loss, and still back him (which is odd in a country which hasn't really had leaders of the opposition).
But I had left out that the damage done by acquiescing is also huge - suffering a Reagan style hit, if bleeding out to Senate seats in particular, could be worse than at least trying to resist.
As this is a political betting site, can someone please help me?
How do I put a bet on for the Mid Bedfordshire by election which will happen following Nadine Dories announcing that she is standing down with immediate effect?
Thank you
Betfair and various bookmakers will probably open markets in the next day or two.
How sleazy do you have to be to accept an "honour" from BoZo..?
Michael Fabricant sounds like a Knight to remember....
I always thought Fabricant would be a good person to intercede between William and Harry and lower the tensions between those on the royal line of succession.
One look at Fabricant and you can't help but think: heir peace
I normally find myself thinking 'stupid fabricating cu..'
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
Asa Hutchinson has also said Trump should not run. I feel we should give credit where it's due, even if most people will not know who he is.
Blimey, I'd not even heard of him, so I assume he's an even bigger no hoper than Christie.
I think Doug Burgum nabs that title. (33rd Governor of North Dakota, pop.780k)
The Tories were in trouble anyway, but all this god awful honours list does is re-emphasise just how crap and - dare I say it - corrupt this whole government is
As the civilised world stands agog at the disgrace that is the Boris dishonours list, BJO thinks "great people, far worthier to be the government than Keir Starmer"
How sleazy do you have to be to accept an "honour" from BoZo..?
Michael Fabricant sounds like a Knight to remember....
I always thought Fabricant would be a good person to intercede between William and Harry and lower the tensions between those on the royal line of succession.
One look at Fabricant and you can't help but think: heir peace
I normally find myself thinking 'stupid fabricating cu..'
At least he is the first AI to be a K of something in the UK.
The Lib Dems must be saying " We love Nadine". She has given the party a great chance whether the by election is held in July or October. If I were Central Office I would go for July, get it out of the way as quickly as possible, the sooner the Lib Dems win, the sooner the result will be forgotten.
Labour I would thought would be hoping to win it too, their opinion poll rating is about 5%+ higher than it was at the time of the Shopshire North by election in Dec 2021 and on current polls they would be just behind the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire.
If Labour HQ put some effort in it as they didn't in North Shropshire or Chesham and Amersham and Tiverton and Honiton it could be a 3 way contest
Australia well on the way here, even if that horror drop by Yadav (reminiscent of the infamous catches-that-weren't by Courtney Walsh and Wavell Hinds at Old Trafford and Headingley in 2000) didn't cost them much in the end.
300 ahead, six in hand, two days left, even if there is the possibility of some weather this weekend, they should win from here very comfortably.
@Northern_Al has just remortgaged his house and put everything on India.
I see the co-chair of the Tory party Ben Elliot got a knighthood, continuing the trend of the co-chair responsible for bringing in the cash (the other co-chair being an MP) getting a knighthood. Nothing to see here.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
Asa Hutchinson has also said Trump should not run. I feel we should give credit where it's due, even if most people will not know who he is.
Blimey, I'd not even heard of him, so I assume he's an even bigger no hoper than Christie.
I think Doug Burgum nabs that title.
I feel bad for him now, since having googled him he's at least a serving Governor yet I half thought you'd made him up.
As this is a political betting site, can someone please help me?
How do I put a bet on for the Mid Bedfordshire by election which will happen following Nadine Dories announcing that she is standing down with immediate effect?
Thank you
Betfair and various bookmakers will probably open markets in the next day or two.
The Tories were in trouble anyway, but all this god awful honours list does is re-emphasise just how crap and - dare I say it - corrupt this whole government is
Rees-Mogg knighted makes me feel sick
JRSexytimeM is such a cartoon character that he entertains me more than he annoys me. Do we know what flavour of gong he got? Something more exclusive? Or is he just a common or garden Knight Batchelor?
The Tories were in trouble anyway, but all this god awful honours list does is re-emphasise just how crap and - dare I say it - corrupt this whole government is
Rees-Mogg knighted makes me feel sick
Eh, useless fossils often get knighthoods to compensate for not rising in the ranks. That he actually (very briefly) made it to a proper Cabinet post is far worse.
As for safeguarding issues around single sex spaces, I discussed that in the previous thread (and other past threads). As a policy, sex segregation is largely unenforceable without using self-ID and general safeguarding practice without being hugely invasive (something that is not really useful in a space like a refuge or a toilet), and those instances where examples of transpeople are brought up don’t really show an issue with transpeople as much as it does with individual people who commit sexual assault. Cismen are statistically more likely to commit sexual assault than ciswomen or transpeople, so the only real basis I can see for sex based segregation in, say, refuges would be to specifically deny cismen and anyone credibly accused of sexual assault / convicted of sexual assault and not sex segregation based on only allowing ciswomen. Again, I have posited the hypothetical of a lesbian woman who is beaten by a partner and seeks refuge in a woman’s only shelter - I would not expect that shelter to allow the woman accused of violence to be in the same space as their potential victim, so sex is already not the only or primary consideration.
I have read the Cass review - it doesn’t say what most GCs argues it says. One of it’s main criticisms is the slowness at which children get treated for gender dysphoria and that treatment should not be only located in London but available in the regions - so the closing of the Tavistock centre was in part to spread treatment across the country to increase the speed at which patients are treated, not because they treat patients too quickly.
I have not read the non peer reviewed books of individual GCs who do not specialise in the area of gender. All arguments I have read of theirs are pretty bad, including the idea that they are being denied platforms whilst regularly having columns printed in national newspapers. I accept the medical consensus that is shown out by the evidence of treatment outcomes, not political pressure.
As I said last thread, I highly recommend the videos of Abigail Thorn of PhilosophyTube, discussing her experience of the NHS as a transwoman and the philosophy of social constructs, but I would also suggest the work of Mia Mulder, Katy Montgomerie and other transpeople who often have to learn more about their medical treatment and the administration of it than most cis doctors do because most cis doctors don’t know anything about the treatment. They also provide citations.
Australia well on the way here, even if that horror drop by Yadav (reminiscent of the infamous catches-that-weren't by Courtney Walsh and Wavell Hinds at Old Trafford and Headingley in 2000) didn't cost them much in the end.
300 ahead, six in hand, two days left, even if there is the possibility of some weather this weekend, they should win from here very comfortably.
@Northern_Al has just remortgaged his house and put everything on India.
Ha, but not on this occasion. The draw (13/2) is slightly tempting though, if the Aussies are too cautious and leave India to chase 500 or so.
I have said before and will say again - the GOP persecution complex, along with establishment GOP defences of Trump, will mean this will make it more likely Trump will be the GOP nominee, not less. I would expect it to be worse for him in the general.
Even "I'm here to talk truths to Trump about how he is unfit to be president" Chris Christie has not jumped on this, and has taken a "let's see where the evidence takes us" approach. Political leaders sometimes forget their ability to shape base perceptions; maybe the base will punish GOP politicians for calling out Trump, but if the party had a clear line they all shared denouncing him their would be less chance of punishment (not that it would necessarily mean they'd agree).
At the end of the day, it might be better for the GOP establishment to let Trump be nominee again and go down to another defeat so they can move on longer term than try and block him if most of the base still stick with him
The problem with that tactic, which is what they are clearly going for (barring Christie, even with not jumping on this issue), is it didn't work last time so why would it work again?
Asa Hutchinson has also said Trump should not run. I feel we should give credit where it's due, even if most people will not know who he is.
Blimey, I'd not even heard of him, so I assume he's an even bigger no hoper than Christie.
I think Doug Burgum nabs that title. (33rd Governor of North Dakota, pop.780k)
There are a billion reasons why Burgum, despite obviously not having a great chance, is more capable of competing than other rank outsiders.
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@JohnRentoul
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@NadineDorries
Applying the average swings in N Shropshire and Tiverton to Mid Beds produces a come-from-3rd-place Lib Dem win
I will not change my mind on this. Ever. Well until that inevitable moment in the future of "Arise Sir Nigel"
Knighthoods:
Conor Burns
Simon Clarke
Ben Elliot
Michael Fabricant
Will Lewis
Jacob Rees Mogg
Damehoods:
Andrea Jenkyns
Amanda Milling
Priti Patel
Ann Sindall
Shelley Williams-Walker
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1667202060683444228?s=20
As Noel Coward remarked after WWII when the Nazi Occupation execution list was found "To think, the people we'd have been seen dead with".
Shocking, I am sure.
I have a soft spot for the old Woolwich Dodkyard myself - sort of bits and pieces in between, and poking out from under, trading estates and council flats.
Gongs for Patel and Rees- Mogg
Already incoming over Boris Johnson's resignation honours list
Former loyal Johnson aide:
‘It’s a disgrace. It’s rewards for failure all round. Boris has slammed the door shut on the prospect of return to frontline British politics and trashed what remained of his legacy'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1667202544945201152?s=20
Although I'm not sure where he'd have found "rewards for success"...
Full figures
Cons 38%
Lab 36.6%
LD 10.7%
Green 7.1%
RefUK 5.6%
Others 2%
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Bedfordshire+Mid
So the Conservatives should narrowly hold the seat in the by election but Labour are by far their closest opponents and could take it with a good campaign.
If the LDs also target it however that could ensure a Conservative hold even on a low voteshare as the opposition vote is split. Albeit the LDs did take Shropshire North from 3rd in a similar position when Labour weren't polling as well as they are now
I'm less fussed about gongs, since those are just baubles, though it's still often dodgy.
Permission to become a raving Leninist.
You have to demonstrate a long pattern of diligently working to undermine the true enemy of the people: other leftists with views marginally different to your own.
65,000 jokes being revealed at the Joan Rivers museum
But it has not always been done, and personally I don't think they should be able to do it.
… or rather, one Asian tory
Getting to put Sir or Dame in front of your name may well be jolly nice but ultimately isn't worth anything.
So Boris is making seven new Peers - haven't checked previous PMs but doesn't sound way out of line.
Con currently has four more peers than Lab + LD combined. So this will take that lead up to 11.
So Con can still be easily outvoted if most Crossbenchers support opposition - which they usually do on contentious legislation.
Time to end the whole filthy system. Let’s properly get the Lords reformed, then let’s remove the power of the PM to hand out gongs - make it a genuinely independent cross party (with lay representation) process that goes straight up to the Palace once the proposals/vetting has been done.
In Tiverton they were on 14.8 and Labour 19.5, versus the Tories on 60.2. It wasn't even close. In Mid-Bedforshire the proportions are 12.6 for LDs, 21.7 for Labour, and 59.8 for the Tories. So a bit higher for Labour but still comparable. In North Shropshire the LDs were even furtherback and on a mere 10%.
I think in by-elections the arrangement is off, and the public have demonstrated they can tell who really has the best chance, whatever the past results.
Yes, there is a risk of confusion meaning the Tories hold on, but past victories make it hard for Labour to claim 'only they can win' for themselves.
I think the point that true leaders help shape perceptions is a good one, they could at least try - it's notable that they have been far more bootlicking on this one, despite it being a stronger case than the other, showing some of them felt under threat for not being 'loyal' enough, even those running against the man.
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1667206822602702848?s=20
Helping Andrea Jenkyns get elected.
And looking at those who are, also something of a win for her.
I feel we should give credit where it's due, even if most people will not know who he is (Gov of Arkansas, former Congressman).
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1667184043308228616
How do I put a bet on for the Mid Bedfordshire by election which will happen following Nadine Dories announcing that she is standing down with immediate effect?
Thank you
https://twitter.com/JenWilliams_FT/status/1667206987866619904
But I had left out that the damage done by acquiescing is also huge - suffering a Reagan style hit, if bleeding out to Senate seats in particular, could be worse than at least trying to resist.
She was allegedly in charge of the music during a Downing Street party on the eve of the Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral & was jokingly named DJ SWW"
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1667190237078990850
(33rd Governor of North Dakota, pop.780k)
Rees-Mogg knighted makes me feel sick
If Labour HQ put some effort in it as they didn't in North Shropshire or Chesham and Amersham and Tiverton and Honiton it could be a 3 way contest
300 ahead, six in hand, two days left, even if there is the possibility of some weather this weekend, they should win from here very comfortably.
@Northern_Al has just remortgaged his house and put everything on India.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/mid-bedfordshire-by-election/240430468/all-markets
EDIT: Cons already shortened slightly
As for safeguarding issues around single sex spaces, I discussed that in the previous thread (and other past threads). As a policy, sex segregation is largely unenforceable without using self-ID and general safeguarding practice without being hugely invasive (something that is not really useful in a space like a refuge or a toilet), and those instances where examples of transpeople are brought up don’t really show an issue with transpeople as much as it does with individual people who commit sexual assault. Cismen are statistically more likely to commit sexual assault than ciswomen or transpeople, so the only real basis I can see for sex based segregation in, say, refuges would be to specifically deny cismen and anyone credibly accused of sexual assault / convicted of sexual assault and not sex segregation based on only allowing ciswomen. Again, I have posited the hypothetical of a lesbian woman who is beaten by a partner and seeks refuge in a woman’s only shelter - I would not expect that shelter to allow the woman accused of violence to be in the same space as their potential victim, so sex is already not the only or primary consideration.
I have read the Cass review - it doesn’t say what most GCs argues it says. One of it’s main criticisms is the slowness at which children get treated for gender dysphoria and that treatment should not be only located in London but available in the regions - so the closing of the Tavistock centre was in part to spread treatment across the country to increase the speed at which patients are treated, not because they treat patients too quickly.
I have not read the non peer reviewed books of individual GCs who do not specialise in the area of gender. All arguments I have read of theirs are pretty bad, including the idea that they are being denied platforms whilst regularly having columns printed in national newspapers. I accept the medical consensus that is shown out by the evidence of treatment outcomes, not political pressure.
As I said last thread, I highly recommend the videos of Abigail Thorn of PhilosophyTube, discussing her experience of the NHS as a transwoman and the philosophy of social constructs, but I would also suggest the work of Mia Mulder, Katy Montgomerie and other transpeople who often have to learn more about their medical treatment and the administration of it than most cis doctors do because most cis doctors don’t know anything about the treatment. They also provide citations.