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Ratings blow for Sunak from R&W – politicalbetting.com

It is hard to see what has happened in the past week to explain the shift apart from the fracas with the Home Secretary and Sunak’s decision not to sack her. He came out of that affair not very well.
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FPT Leon: "colorful"? Are you being impersonated by an American AI?
Very important, since trying to treat patients who have already developed the disease - and conducting clinical trials with them - is somewhere between very difficult and impossible,
Validation of a biomarker that predicts #Alzheimer's disease in multiple cohorts by assessing astrocyte reactivity (Ast+) in >1,000 people without cognitive impairment
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1663211379933995010
In the last week we have seen more chaotic manoeuvring from Suella, an absolute shambles on immigration, and a quite extraordinary announcement about price capping, and there's a disturbing undercurrent in the mortgage / lending market. They are managing the singularly impressive feat of appealing to nobody.
The tories are toast. Everybody knows it. I doubt whether opinion polls will change much right up to the day of the General Election.
SKS is a Tory and Labour are rubbish and not real Labour
He’s sub-Major, let’s be honest.
It’s only in comparison with the deranged Truss and the flamboyant larceny of Johnson that he seems “fine”.
I asked this yesterday and received no answer.
He's just not got the ability of say Blair and he's not got the bullshit of Johnson.
He is basically SKS but defending a long period of Government that most people consider at best ineffective.
Sunak is the Spurs of politics. Winning nothing.
Honestly except gay marriage, what have they honestly achieved? They couldn't even overhaul the planning laws to get more masts built!
A desperately weak leader. Probably the weakest PM of my lifetime.
Opened the Elizabeth Line.
Ended decades of acrimony about the EU.*
Destroyed the threat of UKIP.**
Saw Liverpool finally win the League.
*Sure, at the expense of decades of acrimony about Brexit, but hey.
**By turning the Conservative Party INTO UKIP…
One thing to look out for is that we want no more of Portillo faux-contrition moments. That can come later. They deserve the kicking they are going to get.
Indeed, I simply can’t think of one.
Even the Tory 1951-1964 administration, famously tired and debauched by its end, achieved historic housebuilding and considerable decolonisation.
Ireland is going through quite a serious migrant crisis of its own, and these Irish Brit-haters think it is somehow a UK conspiracy to flood Ireland via the ulster border. Also they hate the head of the ‘pro-migrant’ Gardai, coz he has ‘links with MI5’
Superb
And I was infamously and spectacularly wrong about Putin's invasion.
There is nothing un-interesting about the impending end of 13 yrs of Conservative Gov't and a new Labour one. Especially given the absolute shellacking the tories are in for on the day of the election, from a pincer Lab-LibDem movement.
It's going to be spectacular. 1997 Redux.
Of course that only benefits certain age groups in certain parts of the country and much of that might have happened anyway.
But don't underestimate how many people are doing very well.
Its the personalities of Conservative politicians which will bring them defeat not their policies.
If SKS is elected PM any time after October 11 2024, and serves five years, he'll be the oldest sitting PM since Harold Macmillan.
Strange. You don't think of him as old.
2. I am not seeing an answer to my question. Lab maj? Lab min? Not actually good enough at being right to say?
If the Tories got 34% at the next general election they would lose yes but honourably so, in fact with slightly more seats than Howard got in 2005 rather than the 1997 or 2001 style landslide defeat the headline voting intention suggests the Tories are heading for
And I wonder if people looked older in b&w pictures.
Things are bloody hard right now with eye-watering price increases in the supermarkets and horrendous utility bills. And 'affordable housing'? You are having a total laugh, right? Rental prices have rocketed and there's a terrible scarcity. Mortgage costs have been steadily rising and there's a shaky undercurrent at the moment in the lending market. I know people who have lost mortgage deals in just the last week.
No, most people are NOT doing very well. It's really, really, tough.
This is where Sunak finds himself
The one thing that will galvanise conservative support is complacency, arrogance and hubris demonstrated so ably by yourself
Just be satisfied that Starmer is very likely to be PM in late 2024
In fact 26 years since he left office, Major is still the longest serving Conservative PM since Thatcher and still won the most votes for any PM in history in his surprise 1992 re election victory. He left a growing economy and balanced budget for New Labour and low inflation, secured an opt out from the Euro while keeping the UK in the EU, won the Gulf War with Bush 41 and set the way for peace in Northern Ireland.
Very interesting talk and Q and A by Sir John at the Oxford Union in March here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2W3vKLMtRgQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nutpaMhsfKE
I do wonder how he can read through the tears streaming down his cheeks....
Here’s a word cloud of modern Britain, published today.
https://twitter.com/luketryl/status/1663116848215347203?s=46&t=L9g_woCIqbo1MTuBFCK0xg
Note that I am not implying all is rosy here, but the media have been in full on disaster mode since June 2016.
My mortgage isn't rising because its been paid off.
My pay rise is more than covering price rises.
So is the interest I'm getting on my savings.
While the supermarkets have near continuous 25% off wine offers
And there are many millions of oldies and GenXers similar to me.
As for affordable housing then that is very location dependent.
And full employment gives opportunities for those teenagers who prefer to get a job or training rather than go to university.
Now are there many millions of others who are struggling ?
Of course there are - young southerners with graduate debt especially so.
What we're seeing is a widening difference between those who are doing very well and those who are struggling with little hope.
Which is what I said in my initial comment.
We've likely seen such differences previously but, for example, whereas the 1980s were much easier for the southern middle class compared with the northern working class the opposite situation is now happening. Both surprising and ironic.
The reverse is also true, of course.
You need to have a mortgage all but paid off, but not be so old as to worry about the issues in health and social care.
It's a heft chunk of the population, but it doesn't look like a winning chunk. Especially when all the other voters are burying hatchets and looking to hurt the government above all else.
If they’ve nothing to hide why refuse to hand over the documents requested . This government is an absolute cesspit .
Athletics and cycling have different distances but with different participants in each.
Oh - not that kind of checkout…
I don't think that's the case for most working people, though, which is a problem for the government.
But all moot when a political party goes out of its way to aggravate as many people as possible.
It would be interesting to know though the details of those people who do have mortgages.
Someone who has £10k left on a mortgage they took out twenty years ago is in a very different situation to someone with a £200k mortgage taken out this year.
The average age of UK PMs taking office is 54
https://averagewiki.com/average-age-of-uk-prime-minister/
The streets of San Francisco
https://twitter.com/clownworld_/status/1661794713320697857?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
The streets of Philadelphia
https://twitter.com/4mischief/status/1663139738939711488?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
The streets of Chicago
https://twitter.com/abc7chicago/status/1663015439721529346?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
The Tory Parliamentary Party is much less posh than it was. Labour on the other hand has gone the other way. The number of Labour working class MPs who worked on the shop or factory floor or down the mines is a fraction of what it was 50-100 years ago. While the vast majority of Labour MPs are now middle class and went to university
As for workers there are some who are getting higher percentage pay rises than price rises and others who while getting lower percentage pay rises than price rises are getting higher monetary pay rises than price rises.
The key determinant of how well individuals are doing is pretty much their housing situation.
Honestly, it’s ridiculous. The whole nation is having a nervous breakdown over some economic pain, and straining public services, but these are not akin to the catastrophes facing many other countries
eg We have nothing like the homeless/drug problem in America, a society ostensibly richer and ‘more successful’ than us
Get a grip, Britain
Biden is doing a much better job than I expected and much of the USA will be doing very well - often for similar reasons why much of the UK is doing very well.
If the latter, I'm not at all sure how
I imagined that Robert, as a very sensible chap, was making the same point as me but with sarcasm
Thatcher was 65 when she was booted out.
Junior doctors should take a pay cut for being stupid enough to demand a 23% wage increase in these circumstances
It says £753 here but it references March 2022 so likely significantly higher now.
https://www.money.co.uk/mortgages/uk-mortgage-statistics-and-facts#:~:text=The UK demonstrates a mean,April 2021 to March 2022.
Even so £753 is a huge difference between those who have to pay and those who no longer do so.
Seattle
https://twitter.com/jasonrantz/status/1660758006420881409?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
Portland
https://twitter.com/miss_misscat/status/1660466514804494337?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
New York
https://twitter.com/jeffyoungershow/status/1654513948899651587?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
Los Angeles
https://twitter.com/dawntj90/status/1629525612842065920?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg
One more from Philadelphia
https://twitter.com/dailyloud/status/1662667431750385664?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg