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Kicking issues into the Long Grass – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2023 in General
imageKicking issues into the Long Grass – politicalbetting.com

There were two Braverman statements on Monday in the Commons. Only one of them really matters and it is not the one which has so exercised the commentariat. It is the Home Office’s formal response to the final report of IICSA and its 20 recommendations for an effective and comprehensive system for the protection of children from what the inquiry chair described as a “national epidemic” of abuse. The Inquiry was set up in March 2015 by Mrs May following evidence that many institutions were not just failing to protect children from sexual abuse but were actively dangerous for them. It produced 52 reports on a range of bodies: churches, local authorities, schools, care homes, sports bodies and so on. No body could be assumed to be safe for children, not even those set up to help them. The scale of the evidence taken is staggering: over 6,000 victims, 725 witnesses and 325 public hearings. The final report was published last October. The government has had 7 months to consider the recommendations and prepare its response. On Monday Suella came to the Commons to say what the government would now do.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,513
    edited May 2023
    It is complicated. We have recently had Ministers for Children. Sarah Teather, for instance, in the coalition government, and Liz Truss. And paid compensation might encourage false accusations of the sort complained of in the header.

    But yes, it is being kicked into the long grass, and should not be.

    ETA Claire Coutinho is currently Minister for Children, Families and Wellbeing, albeit at the most junior level, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/people/claire-coutinho
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,513
    Work pressures driving nurses and midwives away
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-65687230
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 574
    Third.

    Rate.

  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 574
    South Wales Police have released a new statement stating that the two teens who died in Ely were not being chased by police - they were taking part in a personal speed awareness course
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,257
    "Elon Musk says artificial intelligence isn't 'necessary for anything'

    Speaking via video link to a summit in London, Musk said he expects governments around the world to use AI to develop weapons before anything else."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-artificial-intelligence-isnt-necessary-for-anything-12887975
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,442
    So I was wrong about Ron DeSantis.

    He’s running, big announcement coming today, in an interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces. 11pm UK time.

    https://twitter.com/CaseyDeSantis/status/1661131473020239876
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,511
    Sandpit said:

    So I was wrong about Ron DeSantis.

    He’s running, big announcement coming today, in an interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces. 11pm UK time.

    https://twitter.com/CaseyDeSantis/status/1661131473020239876

    Full backing of Elon, we can assume.

    The DeSantis - Trump fight is going to be fascinating.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,511
    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says artificial intelligence isn't 'necessary for anything'

    Speaking via video link to a summit in London, Musk said he expects governments around the world to use AI to develop weapons before anything else."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-artificial-intelligence-isnt-necessary-for-anything-12887975

    He's behind the curve: governments are already using AI/ChatGPT for cyber weapons, and - in particular - phishing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695
    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,126
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I was wrong about Ron DeSantis.

    He’s running, big announcement coming today, in an interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces. 11pm UK time.

    https://twitter.com/CaseyDeSantis/status/1661131473020239876

    Full backing of Elon, we can assume.

    The DeSantis - Trump fight is going to be fascinating.

    I expect Elon wants to troll Trump into coming back to Twitter.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,259

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,259

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515
    Thistle do very nicely for Starmer, sleazy broken SNP on the slide.

    Scottish Labour is predicted to take 23 Westminster seats from the SNP with Humza Yousaf’s party set for its worst general election performance in almost a decade, a new poll has found.

    If the forecast is accurate then Labour is on course for its best result in Scotland for more than 15 years while the Nationalists would drop to 27 MPs, compared with the 48 they returned in 2019.

    Mhairi Black, the SNP’s outspoken deputy Westminster leader, would be one of the casualties.

    The in-depth constituency modelling by YouGov suggests the SNP would remain the largest party in Scotland, but will be a huge boost to Sir Keir Starmer as he seeks a majority government at Westminster.

    The new projections were made using a statistical technique called MRP — the same method YouGov used successfully to forecast the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections — to model the responses of 3,586 Scottish adults from April 10 to May 21...

    ...According to the research, Labour is on course to sweep greater Glasgow and claw back its former heartlands that turned to the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum.

    As well as every seat in Scotland’s largest city changing, its surrounding towns would turn too. This would include the Paisley & Renfrewshire South constituency held by Black, the SNP’s Westminster deputy leader, who defeated Douglas Alexander, the former Labour cabinet minister, in 2015.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scottish-labour-would-win-23-seats-snp-general-election-poll-finds-6gtwbmf58

    LD remain on 4 seats, whilst the Tories lose two seats to Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515
    YouGov said that Scotland had one of the highest concentrations of marginal seats in the UK, with 22 of the 59 projected seats in the model having winning margins of less than 5 per cent.

    Some — including Motherwell & Wilshaw, Edinburgh North & Leith, and Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East — are currently being settled by margins of less than 1 per cent of the overall vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515
    On topic, we are failing our children in so many ways.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 59,693
    Inflation down to 8.7%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    So still 4 times larger than the government’s target.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,442
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I was wrong about Ron DeSantis.

    He’s running, big announcement coming today, in an interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces. 11pm UK time.

    https://twitter.com/CaseyDeSantis/status/1661131473020239876

    Full backing of Elon, we can assume.

    The DeSantis - Trump fight is going to be fascinating.

    The Trump and DeSantis camps online appear to seriously hate each other, which is why I thought the governor might sit it out. Trump responded to Tim Scott’s candidacy annoucement by welcoming him to the race, followed by a dig at DeSantis.

    I’m going to write up a piece to submit for a header, on the runners and riders so far.

    Looks like Musk is supporting DeSantis, and Larry Ellison was seen at Scott’s launch event - so I think there’s serious money heading into the primaries.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
    I've been so lucky, price fixing my gas and electricity for two years from December 21 onwards, feels like winning the lottery.

    Yeah, the food costs are what stick out like a sore thumb.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 718
    edited May 2023

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    Smaller fall than forecast by economists.

    1.2% rise in April 2023 alone.

    I think Sunak is going to miss his target of cutting inflation in half this year.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,719

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    So still 4 times larger than the government’s target.
    And way higher than expected (I was expecting an above consensus number but this is still way higher than I had anticipated. Not great at all).
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 59,693

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
    I've been so lucky, price fixing my gas and electricity for two years from December 21 onwards, feels like winning the lottery.

    Yeah, the food costs are what stick out like a sore thumb.
    I fixed my gas and electricity for 2 years in September 2021 and consider myself extremely lucky to have done the deal
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,442
    edited May 2023

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    Right direction, but still higher than many were predicting. Rates might need to get closer to the Fed, where US CPI is now under 5%.

    UK petrol prices peaked in June/July last year, so these will affect the next few months’ figures as they fall out of the YOY comparison index, and may well help the PM with his target.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,756

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    So still 4 times larger than the government’s target.
    And way higher than expected (I was expecting an above consensus number but this is still way higher than I had anticipated. Not great at all).
    Isn't there a general principle that inflation shocks are always stickier than TPTB hope?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487

    On topic, we are failing our children in so many ways.

    Comment or confession ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    So still 4 times larger than the government’s target.
    And way higher than expected (I was expecting an above consensus number but this is still way higher than I had anticipated. Not great at all).
    Indeed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,737

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    So still 4 times larger than the government’s target.
    And way higher than expected (I was expecting an above consensus number but this is still way higher than I had anticipated. Not great at all).
    Isn't there a general principle that inflation shocks are always stickier than TPTB hope?
    Producer price inflation fell to 5.4%, which indicates where Consumer price inflation will be in about six months’ time.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,954
    Sandpit said:

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    Right direction, but still higher than many were predicting. Rates might need to get closer to the Fed, where US CPI is now under 5%.

    UK petrol prices peaked in June/July last year, so these will affect the next few months’ figures as they fall out of the YOY comparison index, and may well help the PM with his target.
    And energy prices are likely to come down in June as well
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,954

    Sandpit said:

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    Right direction, but still higher than many were predicting. Rates might need to get closer to the Fed, where US CPI is now under 5%.

    UK petrol prices peaked in June/July last year, so these will affect the next few months’ figures as they fall out of the YOY comparison index, and may well help the PM with his target.
    And energy prices are likely to come down in June as well
    Oops, July
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,854
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Elon Musk says artificial intelligence isn't 'necessary for anything'

    Speaking via video link to a summit in London, Musk said he expects governments around the world to use AI to develop weapons before anything else."

    https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musk-says-artificial-intelligence-isnt-necessary-for-anything-12887975

    He's behind the curve: governments are already using AI/ChatGPT for cyber weapons, and - in particular - phishing.
    It depends what you call AI - neural net based, trained, object recognition has been used in weapons already.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,703
    Truly appalling.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515
    Nigelb said:

    On topic, we are failing our children in so many ways.

    Comment or confession ?
    Comment of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487
    This is an extreme case, but it does reflect a real social problem without simple answers.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65634100

    Ask any primary teacher about the problem children in their class, and what resources are available if they raise concerns about their home life.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    Did anyone get this memo?

    (FT)

    “Germany is expected to be the weakest performer among the world’s big economies this year, according to the IMF, which predicted the country’s output would shrink 0.1 per cent.”

    Incidentally several people on here predicted exactly what is happening to Germany. All the stuff they are good at, and export to China, is slowly but surely being displaced by the same stuff made in China

    It’s quite an existential threat to the German economy, medium-term
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,854
    edited May 2023
    On topic, the only organisations that haven’t been *done* on this are those that haven’t been investigated yet.

    It does make you wonder about the value of taking children into care vs leaving them where they are.

    On the subject of the police officer and the Wayne Couzens investigation - it is clear that the police are taking the matter seriously.

    They have found a suitably junior victim and will use her as the sacrifice to protect the careers of the Senior Management Team.

    What, you want justice?!!!

    #NU10K
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487

    Nigelb said:

    On topic, we are failing our children in so many ways.

    Comment or confession ?
    Comment of course.
    Just didn't want to leave the ambiguity out there.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
    I've been so lucky, price fixing my gas and electricity for two years from December 21 onwards, feels like winning the lottery.

    Yeah, the food costs are what stick out like a sore thumb.
    What happens in December this year though?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487
    Sandpit said:

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    Right direction, but still higher than many were predicting. Rates might need to get closer to the Fed, where US CPI is now under 5%.

    UK petrol prices peaked in June/July last year, so these will affect the next few months’ figures as they fall out of the YOY comparison index, and may well help the PM with his target.
    Core inflation rose.
    I suspect inflation's going to be stickier than optimists hope.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695
    Nigelb said:

    This is an extreme case, but it does reflect a real social problem without simple answers.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65634100

    Ask any primary teacher about the problem children in their class, and what resources are available if they raise concerns about their home life.

    I can't read things like that.

    I really hope I never get called for jury service to hear a case like that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,515

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
    I've been so lucky, price fixing my gas and electricity for two years from December 21 onwards, feels like winning the lottery.

    Yeah, the food costs are what stick out like a sore thumb.
    What happens in December this year though?
    I'm hoping prices remain roughly where they were in December 2021 but have been saving for the worst case scenario.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695
    Ratters said:

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    Smaller fall than forecast by economists.

    1.2% rise in April 2023 alone.

    I think Sunak is going to miss his target of cutting inflation in half this year.
    He should get down to 5% - he's got over 6 months to do it.

    Question is whether it will really make any difference politically for him.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,803
    edited May 2023
    Excellent piece. As @Cyclefree makes clear, the government’s inaction exposes Braverman’s racially charged comments on grooming gangs for the shameful political opportunism they were. If she actually cared about preventing the sexual abuse of children, her Home Office would be doing a lot more about it than it is. It’s a similar story to asylum seekers really, though even more appalling.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,854
    Child Protection Authority - is this a proposal for a new body to supervise child protection?

    If so, can we appoint an independent enquiry into the massive failings, including abuse, within the Child Protection Agency?

    It might seem premature to start the enquiry into an organisation before it exists, but history tells us that this will happen, inevitably.

    By starting the enquiry now, we can act rather than just reacting.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,737

    Excellent piece. As @Cyclefree makes clear, the government’s inaction exposes Braverman’s racially charged comments on grooming gangs for the shameful political opportunism they were. If she actually cared about preventing the sexual abuse of children, her Home Office would be doing a lot more about it than it is. It’s a similar story to asylum seekers really, though even more appalling.

    For all that nonces get a hard time in prison, a lot of politicians and people running institutions don't really seem that bothered about child sexual abuse (unless it's their own children being abused).
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,086
    8.7% is higher than I was expecting and the Government and Bank of England will be disappointed with this number, privately.

    A lot of work required to get down to even 5% by the end of the year. Interest rates will need to rise further, maybe to a bit beyond 5%, and will stay at that level certainly to end 2024 probably beyond.

    Well done to @MoonRabbit who I believe called 8.7% last night.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    Sean_F said:

    Excellent piece. As @Cyclefree makes clear, the government’s inaction exposes Braverman’s racially charged comments on grooming gangs for the shameful political opportunism they were. If she actually cared about preventing the sexual abuse of children, her Home Office would be doing a lot more about it than it is. It’s a similar story to asylum seekers really, though even more appalling.

    For all that nonces get a hard time in prison, a lot of politicians and people running institutions don't really seem that bothered about child sexual abuse (unless it's their own children being abused).
    Maybe they enjoy it?
  • RattersRatters Posts: 718
    Core inflation rose from 6.2% to 6.8%. That excludes energy and food costs.

    This is definitely much worse than expected.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    So I was wrong about Ron DeSantis.

    He’s running, big announcement coming today, in an interview with Elon Musk on Twitter Spaces. 11pm UK time.

    https://twitter.com/CaseyDeSantis/status/1661131473020239876

    Full backing of Elon, we can assume.

    The DeSantis - Trump fight is going to be fascinating.

    I expect Elon wants to troll Trump into coming back to Twitter.
    Trump team knocks DeSantis’ Twitter campaign launch: ‘This way he doesn’t have to interact with people’
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/23/trump-team-reacts-to-desantiss-twitter-campaign-launch-this-way-he-doesnt-have-to-interact-with-people-00098426
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,756
    Sean_F said:

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    So still 4 times larger than the government’s target.
    And way higher than expected (I was expecting an above consensus number but this is still way higher than I had anticipated. Not great at all).
    Isn't there a general principle that inflation shocks are always stickier than TPTB hope?
    Producer price inflation fell to 5.4%, which indicates where Consumer price inflation will be in about six months’ time.
    So, just about hitting Rishi's target?

    He'll take the win for sure, but my recollection was that the inflation target was seen as an utter gimme when he set it.

    And for a lot of people, especially resetting mortgages, it's going to be a very hollow win.

    On the other hand, I found 13p in the pocket of a jacket I haven't worn for a while this morning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487
    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    Widdecombe already did.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,803
    Sean_F said:

    Excellent piece. As @Cyclefree makes clear, the government’s inaction exposes Braverman’s racially charged comments on grooming gangs for the shameful political opportunism they were. If she actually cared about preventing the sexual abuse of children, her Home Office would be doing a lot more about it than it is. It’s a similar story to asylum seekers really, though even more appalling.

    For all that nonces get a hard time in prison, a lot of politicians and people running institutions don't really seem that bothered about child sexual abuse (unless it's their own children being abused).
    It’s a tale as old as time. This country, along with many others, has been failing to protect its vulnerable kids for centuries. We find multiple ways to do it - from ignoring them or calling them liars to refusing to invest in creating joined up systems to identify and prevent abuse. This is just the latest in a long list of failures, albeit one that exposes Braverman’s shameful hypocrisy.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,507

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
    If what @RochdalePioneers says about meat (and I’ve seen elsewhere so it’s not just him) food inflation isn’t going down much because there are changes in October that will significantly increase prices.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,854

    8.7% is higher than I was expecting and the Government and Bank of England will be disappointed with this number, privately.

    A lot of work required to get down to even 5% by the end of the year. Interest rates will need to rise further, maybe to a bit beyond 5%, and will stay at that level certainly to end 2024 probably beyond.

    Well done to @MoonRabbit who I believe called 8.7% last night.

    Work? What work, apart from trying to hold down public sector pay and raising interest rates?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    Widdecombe already did.
    She was too specific. “Cheese sandwiches”. The point was good and Widdecombe is a political genius but it needs someone higher profile and even fatter
  • eekeek Posts: 24,507
    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    In both Britain and the US cheap food is the reason why people are fat, it’s the cost cutting that adds the fat generating bits…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    Reading the headlines it’s sometimes quite easy to slip into the idea that Fuck, Everywhere is Fucked


  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    In both Britain and the US cheap food is the reason why people are fat, it’s the cost cutting that adds the fat generating bits…
    So pay them less and abolish all food that doesn’t come from Waitrose, M&S and Gail’s

    It is - genuinely - a bittersweet irony that people in the west are whining about food inflation when 60% of them are overweight and 30% hideously obese
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,854

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent piece. As @Cyclefree makes clear, the government’s inaction exposes Braverman’s racially charged comments on grooming gangs for the shameful political opportunism they were. If she actually cared about preventing the sexual abuse of children, her Home Office would be doing a lot more about it than it is. It’s a similar story to asylum seekers really, though even more appalling.

    For all that nonces get a hard time in prison, a lot of politicians and people running institutions don't really seem that bothered about child sexual abuse (unless it's their own children being abused).
    It’s a tale as old as time. This country, along with many others, has been failing to protect its vulnerable kids for centuries. We find multiple ways to do it - from ignoring them or calling them liars to refusing to invest in creating joined up systems to identify and prevent abuse. This is just the latest in a long list of failures, albeit one that exposes Braverman’s shameful hypocrisy.

    I am utterly certain of some of the contents of Thomas Cromwell’s Black Book.

    The stuff that they found in the monasteries that wasn’t fit for the public.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487
    eek said:

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
    If what @RochdalePioneers says about meat (and I’ve seen elsewhere so it’s not just him) food inflation isn’t going down much because there are changes in October that will significantly increase prices.
    Similar sentiments expressed in a piece on ... pork markets, on Farming Today this morning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    In both Britain and the US cheap food is the reason why people are fat, it’s the cost cutting that adds the fat generating bits…
    So pay them less and abolish all food that doesn’t come from Waitrose, M&S and Gail’s

    It is - genuinely - a bittersweet irony that people in the west are whining about food inflation when 60% of them are overweight and 30% hideously obese
    Calories are cheap; good nutrition isn't. It costs more in either money, or time and effort.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,345
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    Widdecombe already did.
    People are eating less, people eat considerably less meat now than compared to a few years ago. People are also buying less as well, as shown on the new.

    It is simply demand destruction.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,442
    Leon said:

    Reading the headlines it’s sometimes quite easy to slip into the idea that Fuck, Everywhere is Fucked


    São Paulo has been screwed for decades now. The F1 teams hire shedloads of security when they go there, after robberies and hijackings became routine.

    What’s more worrying, is what’s happening in the more developed nations. San Francisco didn’t use to get compared to a city in Brazil or Mexico.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,345
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    Thank you Cyclefree, as always, for such a significant article.

    I have just two suggestions about the approach you take to the Home Sec's waffle, delay and inaction, and this applies to a number of things.

    1) The gigantic structure of law, regulation and practice already in place means that new developments are complicated, slow, expensive and Byzantine. We (and Suella) have no reason to think they will work better.

    2) What the tax paying public want, on almost every difficult issue, is for the existing systems to be run competently, efficiently and with complete integrity.

    Every relevant institution is already organised with regard to child protection and allied issues. We already have a police force, social workers, schools, a vetting and barring structure of some complexity, compulsory training at every level and so on.

    If these cannot work competently at this moment no changes will make a difference.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,487
    On topic, it's probably not a coincidence that the Tories core voter base consists of those whose children are already adults.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695
    Sean_F said:

    Excellent piece. As @Cyclefree makes clear, the government’s inaction exposes Braverman’s racially charged comments on grooming gangs for the shameful political opportunism they were. If she actually cared about preventing the sexual abuse of children, her Home Office would be doing a lot more about it than it is. It’s a similar story to asylum seekers really, though even more appalling.

    For all that nonces get a hard time in prison, a lot of politicians and people running institutions don't really seem that bothered about child sexual abuse (unless it's their own children being abused).
    We care more about animals than children in this country.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 14,719

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    So still 4 times larger than the government’s target.
    And way higher than expected (I was expecting an above consensus number but this is still way higher than I had anticipated. Not great at all).
    Isn't there a general principle that inflation shocks are always stickier than TPTB hope?
    The problem is that when people are exposed to high inflation their mindset changes and economists struggle to capture that in their models. I have had a very strong conviction for the last year or so that inflation would prove way more persistent as a result, in the UK and elsewhere, and that interest rates would have to rise more. Sadly I have been proven right. I think the April CPI number has been distorted by things like phone contracts going up by past inflation in the April annual repricing, and for this reason I tend to look at median inflation in services as my preferred measure of underlying inflation pressure, which strips out extreme moves. This is running at around 6% annualised, similar to March. The BOE has a real problem on its hands.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 30,745

    8.7% is higher than I was expecting and the Government and Bank of England will be disappointed with this number, privately.

    A lot of work required to get down to even 5% by the end of the year. Interest rates will need to rise further, maybe to a bit beyond 5%, and will stay at that level certainly to end 2024 probably beyond.

    Well done to @MoonRabbit who I believe called 8.7% last night.

    Yes, spot on prediction by @MoonRabbit, well done!

    (Can you PM me the FTSE100 stock numbers for the next quarter please?)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Reading the headlines it’s sometimes quite easy to slip into the idea that Fuck, Everywhere is Fucked


    São Paulo has been screwed for decades now. The F1 teams hire shedloads of security when they go there, after robberies and hijackings became routine.

    What’s more worrying, is what’s happening in the more developed nations. San Francisco didn’t use to get compared to a city in Brazil or Mexico.
    Indeed. And see New Orleans, with a higher homicide rate than any world city outside Mexico’s drug wars

    The New World is ailing
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,076
    Ratters said:

    Core inflation rose from 6.2% to 6.8%. That excludes energy and food costs.

    This is definitely much worse than expected.

    There was talk BoE might hold off on rate rises, that increase in core inflation guarantees another 0.25 next time they meet.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 10,934
    Alun Michael talking about the Cardiff incident this morning on Radio Wales Breakfast, according to the BBC:
    "I was assured, and I am still assured, that the youths were not being chased by the police at the time of the road traffic accident ... There was no police vehicle in the road where the crash happened. There was a police van in another street and the police were called quickly to the accident and conducted CPR"

    So entirely consistent with the police van seen in the CCTV footage having just followed the boys west along Stanway Road, but having been prevented by a traffic barrier from following them into Snowden Road, where the crash occurred a little further to the west.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,408
    @Steven_Swinford
    8s
    BREAKING

    Boris Johnson allies up the ante and warn they will obstruct Rishi Sunak’s government unless he intervened to stop what they see as a ‘witch hunt’

    They say it’s the ‘final straw’ for Johnson and warn that MPs and members supportive of former PM will begin organising
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958
    I believe this is the future for many countries, especially in the Americas. El Salvador. Absolutely brutal hard right governments that shoot first, jail later, and never really ask questions


    “El Salvador crackdown breaks the gangs – at huge cost to human rights

    War on gangs by populist leader Nayib Bukele has produced extraordinary change, but ‘the cure could be as harmful as the disease’”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/20/bukele-el-salvador-gangs-crackdown
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,896
    edited May 2023
    .
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    8s
    BREAKING

    Boris Johnson allies up the ante and warn they will obstruct Rishi Sunak’s government unless he intervened to stop what they see as a ‘witch hunt’

    They say it’s the ‘final straw’ for Johnson and warn that MPs and members supportive of former PM will begin organising

    Both of them? Sunak must be worried.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 54,695
    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    I work in Town but live in Hampshire.

    One thing I notice is, generally, how fat and overweight women are with young children in my local town - one assumes all between about 20-35 - and in London where far fewer are.

    Cooking in general seems to be a rarity - and rather time-consuming and generating lots of mess - so I imagine most people only do it once or twice a week and rely on convenience food the rest of the time.

    In London dietary choices and culture for convenience foods are broader and also a tad more expensive than pizza 'n chips.

    There are at least five takeaway pizza places in my home town and I get a leaflet shoved through the door about it most weeks.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,507

    Ratters said:

    Inflation down to 8.7%

    Smaller fall than forecast by economists.

    1.2% rise in April 2023 alone.

    I think Sunak is going to miss his target of cutting inflation in half this year.
    He should get down to 5% - he's got over 6 months to do it.

    Question is whether it will really make any difference politically for him.
    Core inflation is 6.8% (that only excludes energy and food).

    Food inflation is going at 17% I simply can't see the cut in energy prices offsetting that and allowing the overall figure to get to 5%. 5.5-6% is possible but I think it's going to be impossible.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,854
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Inflation today will either be up a bit, down a bit, or the same.

    Could you be a bit more specific please
    In any event the inflation figure is bullshine as inflation is different for every one of us. It all depends on what we buy.
    Energy and fuel is basically now OK.

    It's food that's still a bit FUBAR. And bleeding interest rates ratcheting housing & mortgage costs up, which of course is linked and also deflates growth a bit too.

    I'm really not sure how high interest rates are supposed to control high food prices - people buy less food and from less posh supermarkets and therefore suppress demand? - but I don't pretend to be an economist.
    If what @RochdalePioneers says about meat (and I’ve seen elsewhere so it’s not just him) food inflation isn’t going down much because there are changes in October that will significantly increase prices.
    Similar sentiments expressed in a piece on ... pork markets, on Farming Today this morning.
    What’s the forecast for frozen orange juice futures?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,803

    Sean_F said:

    Excellent piece. As @Cyclefree makes clear, the government’s inaction exposes Braverman’s racially charged comments on grooming gangs for the shameful political opportunism they were. If she actually cared about preventing the sexual abuse of children, her Home Office would be doing a lot more about it than it is. It’s a similar story to asylum seekers really, though even more appalling.

    For all that nonces get a hard time in prison, a lot of politicians and people running institutions don't really seem that bothered about child sexual abuse (unless it's their own children being abused).
    We care more about animals than children in this country.
    We really do. We don’t tend to judge animals or make assumptions about them.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,803
    I think that business profiteering in the shadows of headlines about inflation is an under-explored subject.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,408
    @Steven_Swinford
    29s
    Boris Johnson’s allies claim that the decision to refer him to the police was signed off by senior ministers

    They said the ministers had direct knowledge of what was happening

    This is denied by cabinet office and Govt, which say there was no ministerial involvement at all
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,896
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    29s
    Boris Johnson’s allies claim that the decision to refer him to the police was signed off by senior ministers

    They said the ministers had direct knowledge of what was happening

    This is denied by cabinet office and Govt, which say there was no ministerial involvement at all

    Is Boris behind this ‘crisis’? He does like to play the victim.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,729
    edited May 2023
    Nigelb said:

    This is an extreme case, but it does reflect a real social problem without simple answers.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-65634100

    Ask any primary teacher about the problem children in their class, and what resources are available if they raise concerns about their home life.

    Thanks for that Nigel, a quite balanced and illustrative report. On the face of it a reasonable decision was reached, but the stripping out of the safeguards, a reduced transition plan and the fact that the actual front line social workers do not seem to have managed to follow up fully even on that reduced plan are what proved fatal for this poor baby.

    The honest truth is even an excellent social care system, which this certainly does not reflect, will not prevent all such deaths, although would work towards the day when that was a realistic aspiration, because it relies critically on best practice human judgements about humanity and will always have to take some account of the limitations
    of the state as a carer.

    But it is in that tough fact, that you almost certainly cannot prevent all, that provides easy cover for politicians to not try and prevent more. Politically, you will fail, so why bother? I am bristling now, writing and considering how this post has worked its way to that last sentence, it reflects a paucity of public discourse across so many areas, a paucity of discourse that we can see diminishes actual governance. Even if we fail in reaching the ultimate ideal, we all need to do better than this.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,854
    Leon said:

    I believe this is the future for many countries, especially in the Americas. El Salvador. Absolutely brutal hard right governments that shoot first, jail later, and never really ask questions


    “El Salvador crackdown breaks the gangs – at huge cost to human rights

    War on gangs by populist leader Nayib Bukele has produced extraordinary change, but ‘the cure could be as harmful as the disease’”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/20/bukele-el-salvador-gangs-crackdown

    It’s a cycle in Latin America.

    The crack down will be followed by a crackdown on the corruption/human rights violations in the official apparatus caused the original crackdown.

    Things are then quiet for a bit. Then crime rises. So someone runs of the crackdown on crime ticket…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 44,958

    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    I work in Town but live in Hampshire.

    One thing I notice is, generally, how fat and overweight women are with young children in my local town - one assumes all between about 20-35 - and in London where far fewer are.

    Cooking in general seems to be a rarity - and rather time-consuming and generating lots of mess - so I imagine most people only do it once or twice a week and rely on convenience food the rest of the time.

    In London dietary choices and culture for convenience foods are broader and also a tad more expensive than pizza 'n chips.

    There are at least five takeaway pizza places in my home town and I get a leaflet shoved through the door about it most weeks.
    It’s also such a recent thing. Look at photos of Brits and Yanks in the 70s and they are nearly all slim
    Now they are blobs

    It is also a growing global phenomenon. Continental kids are getting fatter, Thais are fatter, Arabs, Israelis, Aussies: everyone

  • ChrisChris Posts: 10,934
    Chris said:

    Alun Michael talking about the Cardiff incident this morning on Radio Wales Breakfast, according to the BBC:
    "I was assured, and I am still assured, that the youths were not being chased by the police at the time of the road traffic accident ... There was no police vehicle in the road where the crash happened. There was a police van in another street and the police were called quickly to the accident and conducted CPR"

    So entirely consistent with the police van seen in the CCTV footage having just followed the boys west along Stanway Road, but having been prevented by a traffic barrier from following them into Snowden Road, where the crash occurred a little further to the west.

    And this from the same report:
    "What happened was footage emerged of something that happened a short time before the road traffic accident, and that too needs to be investigated," he said.
    "That was not available to the police or to me at the time when we responded to the first thing that happened, which was a road traffic accident."


    If that is accurate, either there were two different police vans in the area - one which was following the boys and the other that happened to be close to the crash when it happened, or else there was just one van and the police in it kept quiet about having just followed the boys for at least half a mile.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,076

    8.7% is higher than I was expecting and the Government and Bank of England will be disappointed with this number, privately.

    A lot of work required to get down to even 5% by the end of the year. Interest rates will need to rise further, maybe to a bit beyond 5%, and will stay at that level certainly to end 2024 probably beyond.

    Well done to @MoonRabbit who I believe called 8.7% last night.

    Yes, spot on prediction by @MoonRabbit, well done!

    (Can you PM me the FTSE100 stock numbers for the next quarter please?)
    Yes. Thanks everyone for the thanks.

    What I think is happening here, UK could not get inflation out its system, Lady Thatcher used a recession with monetary tightening (not something you are supposed to do with recession) to kill it off. So as soon as growth was revised upward I suspected it means the economy is getting hotter not cooler.
    Worryingly there is monetary tightening in place, we do now have interest rates (though because forecasts did not foresee inflation from economy reboot post covid, interest rates raised far too late) yet core inflation continues to climb. There was a spate of public sector wage deals, but could this have fed in so quickly? Perhaps media focus was on the public sector wage battles, its private sector pay settlements pushing up inflation today. Perhaps “greed inflation” is having bigger input than thought, as it doesn’t seem to have reigned itself in at all during this crisis.

    As regards your question, I would say invest with caution anticipating correction in both property and stock markets. They have both been inflated by printed money and qualitative easing. After the weakness in pensions discovered last year, who knows for sure how wobbly other dominoes are if touched.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,394
    Inflation down to 8.7%, once again higher than most estimates, mainly because of food. Its a big psychological difference but the failure of the MPC to foresee 19% food inflation is palpable. There seems little interest in reviewing or learning from their mistakes. One can only hope that the reasons that the forecasts were so far off are subject to more detailed examination internally. Such incompetence needs to be acknowledged and addressed, not swept under the carpet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,442
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    I work in Town but live in Hampshire.

    One thing I notice is, generally, how fat and overweight women are with young children in my local town - one assumes all between about 20-35 - and in London where far fewer are.

    Cooking in general seems to be a rarity - and rather time-consuming and generating lots of mess - so I imagine most people only do it once or twice a week and rely on convenience food the rest of the time.

    In London dietary choices and culture for convenience foods are broader and also a tad more expensive than pizza 'n chips.

    There are at least five takeaway pizza places in my home town and I get a leaflet shoved through the door about it most weeks.
    It’s also such a recent thing. Look at photos of Brits and Yanks in the 70s and they are nearly all slim
    Now they are blobs

    It is also a growing global phenomenon. Continental kids are getting fatter, Thais are fatter, Arabs, Israelis, Aussies: everyone

    Processed food and junk takeaways. Fewer people actually cook dinner any more.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 30,745
    Taz said:
    I have read the article and (via 12ft ladder) the two linked Telegraph articles. I am struggling to understand how you can deduce that Activist Civil Servants are undermining the EHCR chair for the crime of wrongthink, from that.

    There seem to be two issues: trans activists at City University apparently wanting to suppress a report commissioned by the EHCR and, secondly, EHCR staff (presumably civil servants) unhappy with the management style of Baroness Falkner, resulting in 40 (!) complaints from said staff.

    How are the two related?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,756
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford
    29s
    Boris Johnson’s allies claim that the decision to refer him to the police was signed off by senior ministers

    They said the ministers had direct knowledge of what was happening

    This is denied by cabinet office and Govt, which say there was no ministerial involvement at all

    Is Boris behind this ‘crisis’? He does like to play the victim.
    Much easier to play the victim than acknowledge the role his actions have played in his downfall.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,756
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    If food inflation is 70 trillion percent, Brits should learn to eat less. Let’s face it, this is advice that would benefit the majority of these wobbling lard arses

    The government should put it on posters, with a picture of a grim faced Therese Coffey exhorting British voters:

    “Just cut back on the pies and stop whining, you stupid fat fucks”

    I think it could be a piece of Cummings-esque electoral genius like the NHS bus thingy

    I work in Town but live in Hampshire.

    One thing I notice is, generally, how fat and overweight women are with young children in my local town - one assumes all between about 20-35 - and in London where far fewer are.

    Cooking in general seems to be a rarity - and rather time-consuming and generating lots of mess - so I imagine most people only do it once or twice a week and rely on convenience food the rest of the time.

    In London dietary choices and culture for convenience foods are broader and also a tad more expensive than pizza 'n chips.

    There are at least five takeaway pizza places in my home town and I get a leaflet shoved through the door about it most weeks.
    It’s also such a recent thing. Look at photos of Brits and Yanks in the 70s and they are nearly all slim
    Now they are blobs

    It is also a growing global phenomenon. Continental kids are getting fatter, Thais are fatter, Arabs, Israelis, Aussies: everyone

    Too much driving, not enough time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    DavidL said:

    Braverman's response to this report and the work that went into it is much better evidence of her unfitness for office than asking officials about a speeding awareness course. This is the day job and she has fluffed it.

    I have had a couple of trials recently when children have been describing the abuse of them by step fathers (typically, I have one with an actual father at the moment). They tend to give their evidence by what is called a joint investigative interview, which is a recorded interview with a police officer and a social worker known to them. I find the evidence really distressing and find it hard to control my anger against the perpetrator. This is not easy work.

    What I would say is that there have been significant improvements both in the means of investigation and the inclination to believe children claiming of such abuse. But there is a long way to go and many of the recommendations of this report would and should help. There is often a historic element to these cases, going back a decade or so. The record keeping, interest, and diligence of those responsible a decade ago is usually terrible. Typically, it is even difficult for kids who had qualified for social work interventions to work out what house they were in or who the step father of the season was. For children who were not the recipients of such attention it can be impossible.

    We so need a Home Secretary up to the task. Its been a long time and there is a lot of catching up to do.

    Thanks. I note that the past is a foreign country. But it is what it is and we are where we are.

    What I am unsure about in your post (and Cyclefree) is: Apart from existing systems being run competently, what changes would be helpful? And are they ones a HS can achieve, however gifted?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,877
    Good morning, everyone.

    Smoking is good for NHS finances, and drinking bad. How does obesity affect things? One tends not to see at 80 year olds.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,382

    Thistle do very nicely for Starmer, sleazy broken SNP on the slide.

    Scottish Labour is predicted to take 23 Westminster seats from the SNP with Humza Yousaf’s party set for its worst general election performance in almost a decade, a new poll has found.

    If the forecast is accurate then Labour is on course for its best result in Scotland for more than 15 years while the Nationalists would drop to 27 MPs, compared with the 48 they returned in 2019.

    Mhairi Black, the SNP’s outspoken deputy Westminster leader, would be one of the casualties.

    The in-depth constituency modelling by YouGov suggests the SNP would remain the largest party in Scotland, but will be a huge boost to Sir Keir Starmer as he seeks a majority government at Westminster.

    The new projections were made using a statistical technique called MRP — the same method YouGov used successfully to forecast the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections — to model the responses of 3,586 Scottish adults from April 10 to May 21...

    ...According to the research, Labour is on course to sweep greater Glasgow and claw back its former heartlands that turned to the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum.

    As well as every seat in Scotland’s largest city changing, its surrounding towns would turn too. This would include the Paisley & Renfrewshire South constituency held by Black, the SNP’s Westminster deputy leader, who defeated Douglas Alexander, the former Labour cabinet minister, in 2015.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scottish-labour-would-win-23-seats-snp-general-election-poll-finds-6gtwbmf58

    LD remain on 4 seats, whilst the Tories lose two seats to Labour.

    I'm not sure about this. Tories losing two seats to Labour in Scotland is simply not going to happen. All their seats are SNP facing with Labour nowhere. Makes me wonder what else is wrong with this survey.
This discussion has been closed.