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The HomeSec saga is now a test of Sunak’s authority – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    PB is becoming a sad place where you can’t even say “I have heard some amazing gossip from a reliable source”‘ about “a politician”

    For the purposes of clarity, moderators, I will go no further than that!

    (Anyone who wants to know more can buy me a drink in Cairo tonight in return for a PM)
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,011

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    There are a lot more poor area's that good areas and not looking for sympathy I was pointing out that experience differs depending on where you live and amongst who you live with. Live in a leafy suburb as I now do and life is totally different to living in an urban poor area. Where I live now I can leave the front door unlocked while I nip out for an hour. Living in a poor area you would never do that and even if locked you could still be robbed even if you were in the house. Few of those crimes would ever get reported as people rarely had insurance so didn't need a crime number and not like reporting them would get you any where but could get you in the shit
    Are there "a lot more poor areas than good areas"?

    It depends how you define these, of course, but around 20% of people live in households with less than 60% of median income after housing costs (which is quite a commonly used measure of poverty), so 80% don't. I'm not saying the 80% are well off, or that none of them live in "bad areas" (although not all the 20% live in "bad areas").

    You might want to define it in another way... but you do really need to define it. Certainly, just asserting there are a lot more poor areas than good ones isn't really sufficient.
    Considering many on here bang on about nurses and teachers needing to access food banks I think we can safely say there are more poor people than the official measure as those certainly wouldnt be within that measure. I categorise the poor as people who struggle to make the paycheque last till the end of the month.

    Basically it will be those having to rent (that are doing it through lack of choice rather than convenience) and have to rent in the sort of area's that available to those on housing benefit ie close to the LHA cap. I suspect that figure to be between 30 and 40% of the country though hard to find a stat on it. For those people life is indeed bleak as are there surroundings
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,217
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    There are a lot more poor area's that good areas and not looking for sympathy I was pointing out that experience differs depending on where you live and amongst who you live with. Live in a leafy suburb as I now do and life is totally different to living in an urban poor area. Where I live now I can leave the front door unlocked while I nip out for an hour. Living in a poor area you would never do that and even if locked you could still be robbed even if you were in the house. Few of those crimes would ever get reported as people rarely had insurance so didn't need a crime number and not like reporting them would get you any where but could get you in the shit
    Interesting question as to what proportion of UK residential areas are grotty/middling/nice/a mixture.

    One of the good things about Britain is that our housing isn't too zoned or segregated, unlike say much of the US. There is cheap and expensive housing intermingled in both urban and rural locations. Where I live for example, there's a lot of social housing but also million pound houses, often sharing the same street (and in between there are private rented bedsits, one bed conversion flats, new builds). There are boarded up shops, fried chicken outlets with graffitied windows, as well as trendy cafes and restaurants, high end delis and a variety of other expensive retailers.

    There's a lot of crime too - one of the highest rates in the country. But it feels generally safe. Proper mixture.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    Let me know where you're going to be next Dec 26th, and I'll see what I can do.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited May 2023
    Talk about an attack just inside Russia (Belgorod).

    While the situation is still developing, the incursion into the Belgorod territory today reminds me of the raids a few months back, but with several major differences.

    The attack is much more brazen, a larger number of combat vehicles are being used this time, with much heavier…

    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660601786921623553

    Also, apparently these flags (Russian flag without the red stripe, representing removing the blood) have been appearing today across Russia.

    Such flags appeared in many cities of the Russian Federation this morning.

    https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1660596206685356035

    Something afoot?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,694
    Leon said:

    PB is becoming a sad place where you can’t even say “I have heard some amazing gossip from a reliable source”‘ about “a politician”

    For the purposes of clarity, moderators, I will go no further than that!

    (Anyone who wants to know more can buy me a drink in Cairo tonight in return for a PM)

    This is just the next in line from the Finland Rumour. I get that it can't be posted on PB, so why go round saying 'I know stuff, but I can't tell you'. What are you hoping to achieve?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,914
    Leon said:

    PB is becoming a sad place where you can’t even say “I have heard some amazing gossip from a reliable source”‘ about “a politician”

    For the purposes of clarity, moderators, I will go no further than that!

    (Anyone who wants to know more can buy me a drink in Cairo tonight in return for a PM)

    I have a fiver waiting for you on my desk. The lawyers are all on lunch, they won't be back until 4.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    AlistairM said:

    Talk about an attack just inside Russia (Belgorod).

    While the situation is still developing, the incursion into the Belgorod territory today reminds me of the raids a few months back, but with several major differences.

    The attack is much more brazen, a larger number of combat vehicles are being used this time, with much heavier…

    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660601786921623553

    Also, apparently these flags (Russian flag without the red stripe, representing removing the blood) have been appearing today across Russia.

    Such flags appeared in many cities of the Russian Federation this morning.

    https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1660596206685356035

    Something afoot?

    Russia has a large internal Ukrainian population. I’ve always thought that, eventually, this will become a huge problem for them

    Also that flag is better than the present Russian flag which is bizarrely anonymous. Three horizontal stripes with three colours. Wtf

    So dull

    Canada showed how to create a good modern flag. Unique. Simple. Attractive. Immediately says: CANADA

    South Africa not quite so good but better than Russia
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,961
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    Crime is caused by individual actions, not poverty.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Talk about an attack just inside Russia (Belgorod).

    While the situation is still developing, the incursion into the Belgorod territory today reminds me of the raids a few months back, but with several major differences.

    The attack is much more brazen, a larger number of combat vehicles are being used this time, with much heavier…

    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660601786921623553

    Also, apparently these flags (Russian flag without the red stripe, representing removing the blood) have been appearing today across Russia.

    Such flags appeared in many cities of the Russian Federation this morning.

    https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1660596206685356035

    Something afoot?

    Russia has a large internal Ukrainian population. I’ve always thought that, eventually, this will become a huge problem for them

    Also that flag is better than the present Russian flag which is bizarrely anonymous. Three horizontal stripes with three colours. Wtf

    So dull

    Canada showed how to create a good modern flag. Unique. Simple. Attractive. Immediately says: CANADA

    South Africa not quite so good but better than Russia
    I think the French often used to remove the blue as well as the red from their flag.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,011
    TimS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    There are a lot more poor area's that good areas and not looking for sympathy I was pointing out that experience differs depending on where you live and amongst who you live with. Live in a leafy suburb as I now do and life is totally different to living in an urban poor area. Where I live now I can leave the front door unlocked while I nip out for an hour. Living in a poor area you would never do that and even if locked you could still be robbed even if you were in the house. Few of those crimes would ever get reported as people rarely had insurance so didn't need a crime number and not like reporting them would get you any where but could get you in the shit
    Interesting question as to what proportion of UK residential areas are grotty/middling/nice/a mixture.

    One of the good things about Britain is that our housing isn't too zoned or segregated, unlike say much of the US. There is cheap and expensive housing intermingled in both urban and rural locations. Where I live for example, there's a lot of social housing but also million pound houses, often sharing the same street (and in between there are private rented bedsits, one bed conversion flats, new builds). There are boarded up shops, fried chicken outlets with graffitied windows, as well as trendy cafes and restaurants, high end delis and a variety of other expensive retailers.

    There's a lot of crime too - one of the highest rates in the country. But it feels generally safe. Proper mixture.
    Certainly the case in london I am less sure however that applies in most towns. Most have area's everyone tries to avoid if possible. Certainly was the case in slough where I used to live. No one wanted to be in Chalvey or Manor park for example the latter being worse and central slough was even more of a nightmare to live in
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    I was just in Hurghada with a Sun journalist who had brilliant/scary crime stories (and tons of excellent gossip - OMG Nicola Sturgeon!) - ANYWAY he said recently he’d been working on a series on “Britain’s youngest criminals” and they had unearthed a serial killer age… 12

    Yes. 12
    The story has already been in The Sun.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22076862/uk-youngest-criminals-rapist-murderers/
    That article doesn't have a 12 year old "serial killer". They are a 12 year old "serial sex offender". Which is horrendous, of course, but I think Leon has exaggerated his anecdote a little for dramatic effect, in an historic first for PB.
    Also wtf are you talking about. From that article


    “Among the group is one aged 12; two aged 13; and 11 boys aged 14 who were arrested for murder.”

    A 12 year old murderer. That could be him
    It is grim, but there have always been dangerous child criminals. This happened round the back of my school (warning that even the wiki article writeup is quite disturbing): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edlington_attacks

    Children can have a less-developed sense of morality (and consequence) too - witness for example the active involvement of children and adolescents in the Cultural Revolution in China.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Labour Tory's just more hypocrites
    Looks like Rachel Reeves deleted her tweet after realising you could see her seat is 3K and therefore in first class 🫢

    Which costs around £11,000…!


    I would imagine it's more likely to be a free upgrade from business class.
    I think the press have reported the seat was business class. People on Twitter, and Malcolm, have upgraded it to first class in their own heads as it sounds better.
    I merely reported the item, their speculation that it was expensive is at least as likely as your excuses are for the troughers. Even if it was an upgrade the trougher should not be using anything other than economy with public funds in the first place.
    In companies, generally business class for journeys over 7 hours….

    Some have made it 8 hours to remove trans-Atlantic, though.
    Could see the point if West coast but if East coast it is a joke
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    I've got a website for you about the weird shit stepmothers get up with their stepsons (and the occasional stepdaughter) to that pale into comparison to your anecdote.
    You should see what they do to their hamster.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    I've got a website for you about the weird shit stepmothers get up with their stepsons (and the occasional stepdaughter) to that pale into comparison to your anecdote.
    You should see what they do to their hamster.
    Well if you love hamsters.



  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    Classic hiding-in-plain-sight post.
    The taunting little notes - we've all seen it on the telly.
    ‘Luv, where’s my suit made from the skin of one of my victims? Just logging on to PB for the evening.’
    You need more than one victim to make a decent suit as you get a fair bit of shrinkage in the drying process. You'll struggle to get a decent pair of slacks from the skin of one victim, believe you me.
    Tell me about it. Many of my Canadian relations are being worn around the streets of Toronto and elsewhere as we speak.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Interesting wiki article on how Canada got its flag. They nearly had something really ugly, but lucked out at the last moment


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Canadian_flag_debate
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,011
    Andy_JS said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    Crime is caused by individual actions, not poverty.
    Yes crime is however in a poor area people are more likely to keep to themselves and not see anything. Noticing shit is more likely to get you a brick through your window because you noticed your next door neighbour was a drug dealer, you end up living cheek by jowl with the people who commit crimes and they know where you live. Whereas crime happening in a leafy suburb is more likely to be criminals travelling there and you don't see them everyday.

    People take the route that is most likely to keep them and their family safe
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Labour Tory's just more hypocrites
    Looks like Rachel Reeves deleted her tweet after realising you could see her seat is 3K and therefore in first class 🫢

    Which costs around £11,000…!


    Bargain at twice the price.

    Have you seen the sort of people who travel standard class?

    Although I prefer flying on a Learjet.

    Pure equality there with no standard or first class.
    Overnight bus is too good for these spongers
    Better still get everyone to buy expensive campervans like Scottish Nationalists for their travel. Oh, hang on they are the "splitters" from your point of view eh Baldrick? In your unique and highly narrowminded, simplistic political analysis, every politician is a crook or a sponger except those that agree with the saintly Alex Salmond 🤣🤣🤣

    I mean, really, how detached from reality (thick) do you have to be to think that the answer to any question of importance is someone as untrustworthy and creepy as Alex Salmond?
    Shit for brains not taken his medication again, Dear Dear . Now F*** off

    @Nigel_Foremain
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    edited May 2023
    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Leon said:

    AlistairM said:

    Talk about an attack just inside Russia (Belgorod).

    While the situation is still developing, the incursion into the Belgorod territory today reminds me of the raids a few months back, but with several major differences.

    The attack is much more brazen, a larger number of combat vehicles are being used this time, with much heavier…

    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1660601786921623553

    Also, apparently these flags (Russian flag without the red stripe, representing removing the blood) have been appearing today across Russia.

    Such flags appeared in many cities of the Russian Federation this morning.

    https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1660596206685356035

    Something afoot?

    Russia has a large internal Ukrainian population. I’ve always thought that, eventually, this will become a huge problem for them

    Also that flag is better than the present Russian flag which is bizarrely anonymous. Three horizontal stripes with three colours. Wtf

    So dull

    Canada showed how to create a good modern flag. Unique. Simple. Attractive. Immediately says: CANADA

    South Africa not quite so good but better than Russia
    Nothing beats Mozambique, who didn't dick about and stuck an AK on theirs.

    Good point on the Ukrainian minority in Russia, which numbers in the millions but I've not seen or heard much about their position right now. Presumably a lot of young men fled mobilisation, if they could.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    I was just in Hurghada with a Sun journalist who had brilliant/scary crime stories (and tons of excellent gossip - OMG Nicola Sturgeon!) - ANYWAY he said recently he’d been working on a series on “Britain’s youngest criminals” and they had unearthed a serial killer age… 12

    Yes. 12
    The story has already been in The Sun.
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22076862/uk-youngest-criminals-rapist-murderers/
    That article doesn't have a 12 year old "serial killer". They are a 12 year old "serial sex offender". Which is horrendous, of course, but I think Leon has exaggerated his anecdote a little for dramatic effect, in an historic first for PB.
    Also wtf are you talking about. From that article


    “Among the group is one aged 12; two aged 13; and 11 boys aged 14 who were arrested for murder.”

    A 12 year old murderer. That could be him
    It's quite unlikely given that, if he'd been a serial killer rather than simply a killer, I'd very much expect a Sun journalist to mention it, as they aren't given to burying the lead.

    There is a reference in the article to a 12 year old "serial sex offender", which leads me to suggest you've exaggerated, or at least misremembered, the position.
    Lol. You didn’t read the article. They found a 12 year old murderer. As he told me

    I imagine they can’t go into any further details (serial?) as the crime is hedged around with terrific legal sensitivities and anything more could lead to identification - as he also told me

    I mean, it’s fine. It’s just that I’m the one on pb bringing you juicy real life UK news stories and I’m in a fucking van in the Sahara

    Shape up

    Point of order (and you should know this given your history) arrested for murder does not make him a murderer, let alone a serial killer.

    Over-reach on the 'vindicated' old chap...
    I imagine, in that case, you won’t want to hear the extraordinary gossip I heard about *a certain Scottish politician* from the same source?

    That’s fine. I’ll just tell other people and you’ll never know
    And Leon being banned is just minutes away unless he loses his connection.
    @leon PM it to me Leon
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    I've got a website for you about the weird shit stepmothers get up with their stepsons (and the occasional stepdaughter) to that pale into comparison to your anecdote.
    You should see what they do to their hamster.
    Well if you love hamsters.



    Vicious things. Will have your finger to the bone quicker than you can say Sir Laurie Magnus. Just look at the evil intent in its eyes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Leon said:

    PB is becoming a sad place where you can’t even say “I have heard some amazing gossip from a reliable source”‘ about “a politician”

    For the purposes of clarity, moderators, I will go no further than that!

    (Anyone who wants to know more can buy me a drink in Cairo tonight in return for a PM)

    It is a deal
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    LEON VINDICATED AGAIN

    Leon surprises on the upside for the first time you mean?
    Remember I have these. Ready to go



    We did you order a voodoo doll in the shape of poor Michael Fabricant?
    COMETH THE HOUR! #teamfabricant
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 703
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    I was just in Hurghada with a Sun journalist who had brilliant/scary crime stories (and tons of excellent gossip - OMG Nicola Sturgeon!) - ANYWAY he said recently he’d been working on a series on “Britain’s youngest criminals” and they had unearthed a serial killer age… 12

    Yes. 12
    Have you not heard of Mary Bell?

    I'm interested in your political gossip. How do I get to buy you a drink in Cairo?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,671
    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Couldn't he just have acted ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/22/jude-law-wore-blood-poo-and-sweat-perfume-to-play-henry-viii-firebrand
    Jude Law doused himself in a specially-brewed scent blended from “blood, fecal matter and sweat,” to play Henry VIII in Firebrand, an acclaimed new period drama which has premiered at the Cannes film festival.

    “I read several interesting accounts that you could smell Henry three rooms away,” said Law at a press conference in Cannes on Monday. “His leg was rotting so badly. He hid it with rose oil. I thought it would have a great impact if I smelt awful.”

    A specialist perfumier was enlisted to make a custom brew, continued Law. “She makes wonderful scents, and she also makes awful scents. She somehow came up with this extraordinary variety of blood, fecal matter and sweat...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    edited May 2023
    SandraMc said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    I was just in Hurghada with a Sun journalist who had brilliant/scary crime stories (and tons of excellent gossip - OMG Nicola Sturgeon!) - ANYWAY he said recently he’d been working on a series on “Britain’s youngest criminals” and they had unearthed a serial killer age… 12

    Yes. 12
    Have you not heard of Mary Bell?

    I'm interested in your political gossip. How do I get to buy you a drink in Cairo?
    You have to sign up to his OnlyFans.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,319
    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Parkrun now, inevitably, drawn into the trans debate.

    A parkrun female age group course record was smashed to smithereens by a trans-identifying male on Saturday, probably now out of female hands forever. The previous holder appears to be a local legend.

    Parkrun’s “inclusion” means exclusion of females & erasure of F achievements.

    https://twitter.com/mara_yamauchi/status/1660606684706766848

    As the father of a girl who is a very keen long distance runner I find this offensive. They need to either have an open category or a third one. Protect sport for women.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    AlistairM said:

    Parkrun now, inevitably, drawn into the trans debate.

    A parkrun female age group course record was smashed to smithereens by a trans-identifying male on Saturday, probably now out of female hands forever. The previous holder appears to be a local legend.

    Parkrun’s “inclusion” means exclusion of females & erasure of F achievements.

    https://twitter.com/mara_yamauchi/status/1660606684706766848

    As the father of a girl who is a very keen long distance runner I find this offensive. They need to either have an open category or a third one. Protect sport for women.

    People should refuse to compete against these cheats.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647
    Nigelb said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    @OliverStuenkel
    'Lula says Ukraine's peace proposal, which includes a demand for Moscow to withdraw all its troops and for Ukraine’s full territorial integrity to be restored, amounts to "Russia's surrender".

    https://twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1660465247851872256?s=20

    Almost enough to miss Bolsonaro!

    He's not wrong in that though is he?

    Russia's surrender, just as they did in Afghanistan and the US did in Vietnam, is what we all want.
    He is, though.
    The Russian and US efforts in those wars were defeated - but neither surrendered, or anything even close to that.

    Lula is engaging in absurd hyperbole.

    What we want is Russia's acceptance of their failure, not their 'surrender'.
    Lula is on a par with Seamus Milne and Jeremy Corbyn, soft spot for the old Soviet Union means they haven’t a blithering clue what they are blabbering about in 2020s where Russia is now fascist.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,903
    Leon said:

    PB is becoming a sad place where you can’t even say “I have heard some amazing gossip from a reliable source”‘ about “a politician”

    For the purposes of clarity, moderators, I will go no further than that!

    (Anyone who wants to know more can buy me a drink in Cairo tonight in return for a PM)

    Presumably if the source was that reliable it would be on the front page of a newspaper by now. Still, it's nice to hear that the good men and women of the British press corps are enjoying some R&R. It must get exhausting working 24/7 making up stories about Meghan Markle and hacking dead girls' mobile phones.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647
    edited May 2023

    nico679 said:

    Brilliant speech by Starmer on the NHS and social care .

    A great line “for the Tories the NHS is a cost not a cause “.

    Here's the killer, though;

    It's an amazing indictment of Tory performance on the NHS that Keir Starmer's new pledge *to meet NHS targets that already exist under the Tories* is being criticised as overambitious and undeliverable.

    https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1660571293857579008
    Disastrous speech by Starmer today. When asked simple question where the moneys coming from, he effectively said there’s no magic money tree.

    Starmer’s “May Moment” is sure to damage him just like it damaged Theresa May.

    He can’t even handle straightforward questions like “to achieve your NHS and Social Care plans, where’s the money coming from” without messing up like he did today. Don’t bode well for his attempt to be Primeminister campaign throughout next April.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    malcolmg said:

    AlistairM said:

    Parkrun now, inevitably, drawn into the trans debate.

    A parkrun female age group course record was smashed to smithereens by a trans-identifying male on Saturday, probably now out of female hands forever. The previous holder appears to be a local legend.

    Parkrun’s “inclusion” means exclusion of females & erasure of F achievements.

    https://twitter.com/mara_yamauchi/status/1660606684706766848

    As the father of a girl who is a very keen long distance runner I find this offensive. They need to either have an open category or a third one. Protect sport for women.

    People should refuse to compete against these cheats.
    Parkrun isn't really a place where people compete/go for PBs, in my experience. It's a social event, and I'd be more worried that this story makes it sound like a race.

    Easiest solution is to drop the course records page. Leave that to Strava.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    I've got a website for you about the weird shit stepmothers get up with their stepsons (and the occasional stepdaughter) to that pale into comparison to your anecdote.
    You should see what they do to their hamster.
    Well if you love hamsters.



    Vicious things. Will have your finger to the bone quicker than you can say Sir Laurie Magnus. Just look at the evil intent in its eyes.
    Useful to know, if Rishi finds himself needing a new Home Secretary at short notice.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,592
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    AlistairM said:

    Parkrun now, inevitably, drawn into the trans debate.

    A parkrun female age group course record was smashed to smithereens by a trans-identifying male on Saturday, probably now out of female hands forever. The previous holder appears to be a local legend.

    Parkrun’s “inclusion” means exclusion of females & erasure of F achievements.

    https://twitter.com/mara_yamauchi/status/1660606684706766848

    As the father of a girl who is a very keen long distance runner I find this offensive. They need to either have an open category or a third one. Protect sport for women.

    People should refuse to compete against these cheats.
    Parkrun isn't really a place where people compete/go for PBs, in my experience. It's a social event, and I'd be more worried that this story makes it sound like a race.

    Easiest solution is to drop the course records page. Leave that to Strava.
    I think people care about their personal records - few care about course records and it was always open to abuse because it's always been self identifying.

    Curiously Parkrun doesn't exist in France anymore as the French require a Doctor's certificate before people could take part.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647
    Nigelb said:

    Couldn't he just have acted ?

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/22/jude-law-wore-blood-poo-and-sweat-perfume-to-play-henry-viii-firebrand
    Jude Law doused himself in a specially-brewed scent blended from “blood, fecal matter and sweat,” to play Henry VIII in Firebrand, an acclaimed new period drama which has premiered at the Cannes film festival.

    “I read several interesting accounts that you could smell Henry three rooms away,” said Law at a press conference in Cannes on Monday. “His leg was rotting so badly. He hid it with rose oil. I thought it would have a great impact if I smelt awful.”

    A specialist perfumier was enlisted to make a custom brew, continued Law. “She makes wonderful scents, and she also makes awful scents. She somehow came up with this extraordinary variety of blood, fecal matter and sweat...

    I can’t wait to see this film. Though the Guardian review did say the direction is poor making Alicia’s performance under par. Will be interesting to hear her take on that. I like the idea of a realistically misogynistic Henry.
  • Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    I've got a website for you about the weird shit stepmothers get up with their stepsons (and the occasional stepdaughter) to that pale into comparison to your anecdote.
    You should see what they do to their hamster.
    Well if you love hamsters.



    Vicious things. Will have your finger to the bone quicker than you can say Sir Laurie Magnus. Just look at the evil intent in its eyes.
    Guessing you're joking, but they can be extremely vicious creatures.

    We got 3 hamsters years ago from Pets at Home. They were a breed that P@H sold together and said were suitable for living together (many aren't).

    Not long after we got them I woke up, went to the cage and told my then-girlfriend (now wife) that two of the hamsters had died and I disposed of them.

    What I never told her, was that the third had eaten its siblings down to the bones.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    Leon said:

    PB is becoming a sad place where you can’t even say “I have heard some amazing gossip from a reliable source”‘ about “a politician”

    For the purposes of clarity, moderators, I will go no further than that!

    (Anyone who wants to know more can buy me a drink in Cairo tonight in return for a PM)

    Presumably if the source was that reliable it would be on the front page of a newspaper by now. Still, it's nice to hear that the good men and women of the British press corps are enjoying some R&R. It must get exhausting working 24/7 making up stories about Meghan Markle and hacking dead girls' mobile phones.
    National journalists (Brits especially) are the most amusing people to hang out with. They nearly always like a drink, they are full of curiosity, they are usually candid and revealing, and they adore the swapping of gossip. Tabloid journos are often more fun than broadsheet types (who are sometimes up themselves) but they’re all a laugh

    If you ever want the most ENTERTAINING holiday,
    wangle yourself onto a press trip

    At 2am by a hotel bar it can get quite hair raising
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281

    Nigelb said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    @OliverStuenkel
    'Lula says Ukraine's peace proposal, which includes a demand for Moscow to withdraw all its troops and for Ukraine’s full territorial integrity to be restored, amounts to "Russia's surrender".

    https://twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1660465247851872256?s=20

    Almost enough to miss Bolsonaro!

    He's not wrong in that though is he?

    Russia's surrender, just as they did in Afghanistan and the US did in Vietnam, is what we all want.
    He is, though.
    The Russian and US efforts in those wars were defeated - but neither surrendered, or anything even close to that.

    Lula is engaging in absurd hyperbole.

    What we want is Russia's acceptance of their failure, not their 'surrender'.
    Lula is on a par with Seamus Milne and Jeremy Corbyn, soft spot for the old Soviet Union means they haven’t a blithering clue what they are blabbering about in 2020s where Russia is now fascist.
    It always was.
    There's no great difference between Soviet Russia and Putin's version, except the propaganda used perhaps to be more coherent.
    And the crime is now more capitalist.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,011

    nico679 said:

    Brilliant speech by Starmer on the NHS and social care .

    A great line “for the Tories the NHS is a cost not a cause “.

    Here's the killer, though;

    It's an amazing indictment of Tory performance on the NHS that Keir Starmer's new pledge *to meet NHS targets that already exist under the Tories* is being criticised as overambitious and undeliverable.

    https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1660571293857579008
    Disastrous speech by Starmer today. When asked simple question where the moneys coming from, he effectively said there’s no magic money tree.

    Starmer’s “May Moment” is sure to damage him just like it damaged Theresa May.

    He can’t even handle straightforward questions like “to achieve your NHS and Social Care plans, where’s the money coming from” without messing up like he did today. Don’t bode well for his attempt to be Primeminister campaign throughout next April.
    Starmer has a piece on the NHS in the guardian today about making it fully digital, having worked on software for the NHS in my last job it made me laugh, he hasn't a hope in hell of doing so despite it not actually being a bad idea. Hell we had problems with them because they didnt want to give up using internet explorer and every hospital wanted something different from the software so a nurse moving from one hospital to another would have to be retrained to use whatever software the hospital had
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303
    Ukraine is invading Russia proper with a Russian citizen army.

    Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence tells Ukrainian TV that everyone in that incursion force is a Russian citizen, and that the goal of the operation is to create a “security zone” on the Russian side of the border 👀

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1660618037446295553
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    HYUFD said:

    @OliverStuenkel
    'Lula says Ukraine's peace proposal, which includes a demand for Moscow to withdraw all its troops and for Ukraine’s full territorial integrity to be restored, amounts to "Russia's surrender".

    https://twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1660465247851872256?s=20

    Almost enough to miss Bolsonaro!

    He's not wrong in that though is he?

    Russia's surrender, just as they did in Afghanistan and the US did in Vietnam, is what we all want.
    He is, though.
    The Russian and US efforts in those wars were defeated - but neither surrendered, or anything even close to that.

    Lula is engaging in absurd hyperbole.

    What we want is Russia's acceptance of their failure, not their 'surrender'.
    Lula is on a par with Seamus Milne and Jeremy Corbyn, soft spot for the old Soviet Union means they haven’t a blithering clue what they are blabbering about in 2020s where Russia is now fascist.
    It always was.
    There's no great difference between Soviet Russia and Putin's version, except the propaganda used perhaps to be more coherent.
    And the crime is now more capitalist.
    It always was capitalist. You can’t jump from a feudal state, serfs and all that, to a socialist nation state without adopting all the economic liberalism Marx and Engels fought for in 1848. Above all Marx was driven for change because he was Hegelite.

    I was a Green in a stage play on the Civil War, and read into it, we shouldn’t think of it as Europe sponsored whites v the reds - reds and white might be having a skirmish and wham, the Greens would come in and properly tear both of them up.

    Putin is a million miles from the old Soviet Union. As the Soviet Union collapsed gangsters took over, gangsterism mentality filled the idea’s vacuum.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Ukraine is invading Russia proper with a Russian citizen army.

    Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence tells Ukrainian TV that everyone in that incursion force is a Russian citizen, and that the goal of the operation is to create a “security zone” on the Russian side of the border 👀

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1660618037446295553

    Almost all Russian troops must be in the east of Ukraine. They need to somehow get troops there. Shaping operation to divert the attention of Russian over what must surely be a bigger thrust somewhere in Ukraine?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,177
    Pagan2 said:

    nico679 said:

    Brilliant speech by Starmer on the NHS and social care .

    A great line “for the Tories the NHS is a cost not a cause “.

    Here's the killer, though;

    It's an amazing indictment of Tory performance on the NHS that Keir Starmer's new pledge *to meet NHS targets that already exist under the Tories* is being criticised as overambitious and undeliverable.

    https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1660571293857579008
    Disastrous speech by Starmer today. When asked simple question where the moneys coming from, he effectively said there’s no magic money tree.

    Starmer’s “May Moment” is sure to damage him just like it damaged Theresa May.

    He can’t even handle straightforward questions like “to achieve your NHS and Social Care plans, where’s the money coming from” without messing up like he did today. Don’t bode well for his attempt to be Primeminister campaign throughout next April.
    Starmer has a piece on the NHS in the guardian today about making it fully digital, having worked on software for the NHS in my last job it made me laugh, he hasn't a hope in hell of doing so despite it not actually being a bad idea. Hell we had problems with them because they didnt want to give up using internet explorer and every hospital wanted something different from the software so a nurse moving from one hospital to another would have to be retrained to use whatever software the hospital had
    You worked in NHS IT?

    Christ - that’s worse than… I give up.

    You win the Four Yorkshiremen,
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,972
    Leon said:

    PB is becoming a sad place where you can’t even say “I have heard some amazing gossip from a reliable source”‘ about “a politician”

    For the purposes of clarity, moderators, I will go no further than that!

    (Anyone who wants to know more can buy me a drink in Cairo tonight in return for a PM)

    The only scandalous gossip worth telling ends like this

    https://y.yarn.co/6f4026cb-0927-46ae-b7e2-09b6dcb3a1df.mp4
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    Let me know where you're going to be next Dec 26th, and I'll see what I can do.
    Indeed. Does it have to be Dec 26th, or any Bank Holiday? It's just that there's one next Monday and, y'know...😀
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    The resignation of this thread is a test of Sunak's authority.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,011

    Pagan2 said:

    nico679 said:

    Brilliant speech by Starmer on the NHS and social care .

    A great line “for the Tories the NHS is a cost not a cause “.

    Here's the killer, though;

    It's an amazing indictment of Tory performance on the NHS that Keir Starmer's new pledge *to meet NHS targets that already exist under the Tories* is being criticised as overambitious and undeliverable.

    https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1660571293857579008
    Disastrous speech by Starmer today. When asked simple question where the moneys coming from, he effectively said there’s no magic money tree.

    Starmer’s “May Moment” is sure to damage him just like it damaged Theresa May.

    He can’t even handle straightforward questions like “to achieve your NHS and Social Care plans, where’s the money coming from” without messing up like he did today. Don’t bode well for his attempt to be Primeminister campaign throughout next April.
    Starmer has a piece on the NHS in the guardian today about making it fully digital, having worked on software for the NHS in my last job it made me laugh, he hasn't a hope in hell of doing so despite it not actually being a bad idea. Hell we had problems with them because they didnt want to give up using internet explorer and every hospital wanted something different from the software so a nurse moving from one hospital to another would have to be retrained to use whatever software the hospital had
    You worked in NHS IT?

    Christ - that’s worse than… I give up.

    You win the Four Yorkshiremen,
    I blame my baldness on the insanity that is hl7
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,424
    edited May 2023

    nico679 said:

    Brilliant speech by Starmer on the NHS and social care .

    A great line “for the Tories the NHS is a cost not a cause “.

    Here's the killer, though;

    It's an amazing indictment of Tory performance on the NHS that Keir Starmer's new pledge *to meet NHS targets that already exist under the Tories* is being criticised as overambitious and undeliverable.

    https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1660571293857579008
    Disastrous speech by Starmer today. When asked simple question where the moneys coming from, he effectively said there’s no magic money tree.

    Starmer’s “May Moment” is sure to damage him just like it damaged Theresa May.

    He can’t even handle straightforward questions like “to achieve your NHS and Social Care plans, where’s the money coming from” without messing up like he did today. Don’t bode well for his attempt to be Primeminister campaign throughout next April.
    There are several precedents for uncosted implausible propositions being put to the people and won via a popular vote.... :(
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Incidentally Toynbee is outdone in poshness by her fellow guardian columnist marina hyde, granddaughter of first baronet Sir Rolf Dudley Williams

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolf_Dudley-
    Williams

    A few years ago she REDACTED REDACTED REDACTED
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,981
    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    HYUFD said:

    Poor, poor Polly Toynbee. She can't even find one working class ancestor but nonetheless she still sympathises desperately with their troubles while writing her Guardian column from her posh property to be read by other upper middle class left liberals, though of course the working classes suffered terrible false conciousness in backing Brexit
    https://twitter.com/alysdenby/status/1660564871610527744?s=20

    Polly Toynbee is why I was a Tory for so long.
    I don’t believe I’ve ever read an interesting Polly Toynbee piece. I believe she was considered influential back in the early 90s…
    It’s worth reading that article for the sheer Toynbee-ness of it all. Her sad desperate yet failed search for at least one working class relative (a story I don’t believe btw, everyone has working class relatives no more than 2 or 3 generations away or removed - she just didn’t want to find them)

    True story: a few years ago she bought a house near a friend of mine for a cool £5m cash
    I’ve never understood poshos like Toynbee who are desperate to be working class.

    What is wrong with these people?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647
    Farooq said:

    This thread has gone off in search of working class relatives

    And hopefully not finding them gnawed to the bone by a sibling.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,647

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Cookie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kjh said:

    Morning All.
    Like kjh i’ve been on one of these courses, and like him found it interesting. I suspect that if Braverman had gone on the course it would’ve been a nine days wonder, but a lot of people here would’ve said ‘good on her’ for doing it.
    I think that she’s now got the worst of all possible worlds, as has Sunak.

    I've been on one too, and found it less interesting. My crime was 27 in a 30 in anti-car Bath. The section of road at 20 comes after sections at 60, then 30, then 40 then 30 in the space of about a mile. Since my 'offence' huge areas of Bath have become 20 limits (all the hills from the South side at least are now 20).

    Many on my course had been driving far faster than me in areas with much higher limits. After the course I still felt wrongfully 'convicted' and only came away with a sense that this country likes to go after easy offences rather than hard ones. Middle class 'speeders' are the easy target.
    Isn't it swings and roundabouts though.

    In 51 years of driving I have been caught on cameras twice. Once was points the other, the course. In both cases I thought they were unreasonable under the circumstances (for reasons I won't go into here). However it is only twice in 51 years and there must be dozens of times where I have been speed slightly and it wasn't unreasonable to do me and I haven't been caught. So I take it on the chin.

    I doubt a policeman would have booked me in either case taking into account the circumstance but cameras are cheaper than policeman.

    On that front I have been stopped by the police 3 times and in all 3 cases let off and in all 3 cases I was in the wrong. In one case I had brain failure so a penalty would have been pointless, but in the other two I was banged to rights and they used their discretion. Two of the instances were quite funny stories, but too embarrassing to tell here.
    People have admitted to smashing whores, driving a Ford Galaxy and voting UKIP on here. What is left that is too embarrassing?
    Statisically speaking and assuming a number of people posting here is about 500 though most are irregular posters then there is about a 5% chance one of us is a serial killer and hasn't bared their soul here
    What? That can't be right, surely. 1 in (500*20=) 10000 people is a serial killer?
    Or are you controlling for the fact that very odd people are more likely to be drawn to pb.com?

    How many posters DO we have? My FITA guess is that 98% of posts are from around 120 people - and for the past four years or so it's been give or take 5%, the same 120 people. I wonder how many lurkers we have?
    apparently the % of serial killers is about 1 in 10000 with the proclivity....its not necessarily those that actually go on to do it. The stats on that seem hard to find, given that most highflyers in companies are suspected to be sociopaths to some degree then it does not seem out of line
    OK, so that's 7000 potential serial killers in the UK. But even if all the murders are done by serial killers, and even if they're averaging one murder a year (which would be a really peculiar detective novel), that's still 90% of potential serial killers managing to resist the urge. Let's focus on the positives here.
    As someone pointed out with shipman, not all murders are counted as murders at the time. We only have a figure for murders per year that are obviously murders. About 11k a year simply go missing in the uk some of those will be murders for example
    Where's that figure from? I don't think it's anything like correct.

    There are about 350k missing person calls every year, but that relates to only about 150k people (as quite a lot are people who regularly go missing for a period of time). About 99% of those are cleared up within a year - either because the person turns up alive or, less commonly, dead (in which case the cause of death would be recorded including if foul play is suspected).

    So that's about 1,500 each year who are missing for over a year. Some of those will be included in the murder statistics already as they will include cases where a murder investigation is opened in the absence of a body. Quite a few will be people who have quite deliberately gone missing and don't want to be found - and Police will stop looking if there's evidence of that and the individual isn't wanted by them for other reasons. A few will be unreported murders, although quite often by the people who reported them missing ("I'm terribly worried about my wife, officer...")

    So no doubt a few, but 11k cannot possibly be right.
    Pagan2 has a rather bleak view of the world. Fortunately it doesn’t seem to be an accurate one.
    Perhaps that is because most of my life I have had to live in poorer areas and not leafy suburbs like most posters here seem to? For example less than a year ago got woken up ny the guy upstairs hammering on my door after being stabbed in the chest by his girlfriend in a drunken row. Robbery, violence, gang shit was part of everyday life in those areas. Apologies for not living in better areas where the only crime you ever see is your neighbour allowing his grass to grow above regulation height.
    The fact your personal experience has been bad (for which I sympathise) does not mean it is typical.

    All of us have lived lives that are average in some ways and not in others. Where statistics come in is enabling us to distinguish the assumptions we have from what is typical. We don't just get to make them up to fit our world view.
    My stepmother once tried to stab me. On Boxing Day. Beat that
    I've got a website for you about the weird shit stepmothers get up with their stepsons (and the occasional stepdaughter) to that pale into comparison to your anecdote.
    You should see what they do to their hamster.
    Well if you love hamsters.



    Vicious things. Will have your finger to the bone quicker than you can say Sir Laurie Magnus. Just look at the evil intent in its eyes.
    Guessing you're joking, but they can be extremely vicious creatures.

    We got 3 hamsters years ago from Pets at Home. They were a breed that P@H sold together and said were suitable for living together (many aren't).

    Not long after we got them I woke up, went to the cage and told my then-girlfriend (now wife) that two of the hamsters had died and I disposed of them.

    What I never told her, was that the third had eaten its siblings down to the bones.
    I bet you never looked at him the same after that?

    We had a pet rabbit that ate (or much of the entrails) of her friend rabbit. I never looked at “Fluffy” the same after that, I was so mad at her.
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