These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Put it another way, currently less than half of 2019 Conservative voters will vote the same way next time. I think there will be some reversion of Reform Party supporters and Don't Knows but not nearly enough, unless anything else changes.
And add critical other point. There's no churn in these tables. No-one is moving to the Conservatives to make up their losses.
This is the most deadly issue. Voters have made up their minds on at least one point: The Tories must go.
Sir Kier may not have sealed to deal but the risk for him is not that they will go back to the Tories, but that the voters follow though on a Cleggasm style surge to Sir Edward and this time they actually make it to the ballot box. The prosperous middle class of Sevenoaks and Camberley are clearly flirting with the idea now.
I don't think that is a risk for Labour - there are few seats that a Labour / Lib Dem or 3 way marginals where no clear anti-tory candidate isn't obvious.
The worry for the Tory party is that both sides switch anti-tory at the same time at which point it's very possible that the Lib Dems collect 30-40 seats leaving the Tories at 130-160 seats.
One thing thats not taken into account for tory prospects is how the ukraine war goes. With our decision to send f16 fighter jets we are pretty much all in and given the sacrifices made by us all over the past year any reversals on the battlefield could well play badly.
How many of their zero F16s, will the UK be sending to Ukraine?
The writing of Foreign Affairs and National Interest reveals that the USA is already "looking back" on Ukraine NI: WASHINGTON MADE A STRATEGIC MISTAKE BY ENTERING THE WAR AGAINST RUSSIA FA: "It's time for the West to start more actively planning the future of Ukraine, not focusing only on the announced counter-offensive." History shows that some conflicts can be very difficult to end" NI: "The irony of the situation is that the West was drawn into the war against Russia at the very moment when it should have been developing a dialogue with it in order to oppose China... The US is in the mood for a confrontation with two great powers, and only naive optimists believe that Washington can win"
The Saturday bots always seem to me a blend of HYUFD and Dura Ace in tone.
Maybe that is it. Maybe it is Robert creating these trolls using AI from a mix of PB posters. If he is then I think he is using a very old version of ChatGPT to do it
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
What is a separatist. Unionists is like saying bears shit in the woods. People do not instantly flock to new political parties so hard to say at this point what will happen, especially given the state of the largest party in Scotland , the hatred for the London run unionist parties etc. I would say as usual you are talking out of your biased unionist arse.
We could but the trouble is there is no quality to them. No challenge. Some of those from last year were a lot of fun. Some of them even knew how to write coherent English. This latest batch sound like they were dragged off the streets of Vladivostok and taught English by a Mongolian yak herder.
Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.
OK. I'll play along. So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
An official declaration of Russian victory for the Battle for Bakhmut is expected within the coming days. Given the depletion of reportedly 300,000+ Ukrainian forces combined with their inadequate air defense capabilities, this is expected to be a watershed moment in the war.
Standout from the tables in the header for me is this. Apologies if it has been noted. The lead amongst 25-49 is almost as great as the 18-24. And there is a lead amongst all age groups of working age.
Standout from the tables in the header for me is this. Apologies if it has been noted. The lead amongst 25-49 is almost as great as the 18-24. And there is a lead amongst all age groups of working age.
Yes and from my conversations support for the ukraine war is falling. Zelensky is seen for what he is.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I hope they stand in a few selected seats where they can get rid of a few of the worst idiots. Pete Wishart, Kirsten Oswald and John Nicolson for example.
Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.
OK. I'll play along. So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
It’s interesting you’re choosing to give Zelenskyy agency.
Standout from the tables in the header for me is this. Apologies if it has been noted. The lead amongst 25-49 is almost as great as the 18-24. And there is a lead amongst all age groups of working age.
Yes and from my conversations support for the ukraine war is falling. Zelensky is seen for what he is.
Where do you live? Where I live, I see thousands of rich Russians who have got the hell out of their failing hellhole of a country, taking their money with them. They won’t be going back when the war finishes either.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
What is a separatist. Unionists is like saying bears shit in the woods. People do not instantly flock to new political parties so hard to say at this point what will happen, especially given the state of the largest party in Scotland , the hatred for the London run unionist parties etc. I would say as usual you are talking out of your biased unionist arse.
I'm not a unionist, I'm on the fence on independence. I could vote for or against. Also, I'm not against the idea of Alba. I think multiple parties on both sides can only be a good thing for Scottish democracy. I just don't think Alba have a future because they have a profound image problem.
Time will tell, we for sure need an alternative Scottish party to the corrupt SNP and not any of the London lickspittle sockpuppet parties fit the bill. Greens are thick crooks so only leaves ISP or ALBA as real Independence parties at present. I will vote for either of those two or not at all.
Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.
OK. I'll play along. So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
It’s interesting you’re choosing to give Zelenskyy agency.
I thought he was supposed to be a “puppet” ??
It’s a case of chucking all sorts of shit at the wall and seeing what sticks.
“Cam-punt” can I suggest you report back to your line manager saying the PB members would like them to send someone a bit more sophisticated next Saturday. Cheers.
think we need to bow our heads and share a moment of silence in behalf of the hard-coping Ukraine fans who are suffering through a very difficult past few days. While they achieved a well-earned but fleeting triumph by ambushing 2 RuAF jets and 2 helicopters, it's been all downhill since then. The annihilation of the ammo dumps at Pavlograd and Khmelnytsky has undoubtedly struck a severe blow against the prospects of a credible Ukrainian offensive. Their rapidly dwindling air fleet has been reduced by 2 more Su-24s, an Su-25, and a MiG-29. No fewer than 8 of the recently delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles have been shot down, along with many HARMS and HIMARS missiles that failed to reach their intended targets. In extraordinarily dramatic fashion, an entire Patriot missile battery has been reduced to scattered shards of smoldering metal. Alas, all the most recent wunderwaffen have fallen far short of their lofty expectations. And now, to add humiliating insult to injury, the impotent Bakhmut counterattack has been decisively routed, with severe losses, and the AFU is finally giving up the fight for the ashes and rubble that will now once again assume the name Artemovsk. Zelensky has undoubtedly conducted his final begging tour of European capitals, obtaining from the vassal puppets more empty promises. Now his days are numbered ...
I'm curious as to how much of this stuff they actually believe.
Alternatively there's a large number of Russians trying to break into the alt-history genre, and they'd heard PB was frequented by significant figures in the publishing trade ?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I hope they stand in a few selected seats where they can get rid of a few of the worst idiots. Pete Wishart, Kirsten Oswald and John Nicolson for example.
I agree Red, come Holyrood unless big changes people will realise they need to use 2nd vote for Independence parties and not gift shedloads of seats to unionists, assuming SNP are still winning constituency seats that is, big if the way they are going though.
Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.
It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
The flipside of the "it's where the troublemakers have gone" argument is that what that means for the SNP is it's where the supine, careerist non-rock-the-boats have stayed.
Alba's main image problem to me is more that it doesn't really have any image, outside of the indy blogosphere. Certainly not beyond Salmond himself, that is.
Incredible losses": the West will not be able to make up for the losses of the Ukrainian army Former adviser to the head of the Pentagon, Douglas McGregor, said that since the beginning of the Russian special operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost about 10,000 armored vehicles. Such losses are incredible and cannot be replenished.
I'll actually feed the troll in this case. 10,000 seems like an *incredible* amount, and it is certainly a grand claim. However, if we look back, we can see claims that Ukraine 'lost' 2,500 armoured vehicles in two years in the Donbass. Even with the larger scale of this conflict, 10,000 seems a bit of a stretch for the defenders. (1). A lot will depend on the classification of 'armoured vehicle'.
However, Douglas MacGregor has apparently been making lots of claims during this war that have not exactly panned out. E.g, from three days after the war started:
"The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over," and predicted "If [Ukraine] don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them." ".
And a few days later: " "The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle. They've now corrected that. So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over... I think the most heroic thing he could do right now is come to terms with reality. Neutralize Ukraine."
He seems to be rather optimistically pro-Russian; but his previous quotes and predictions appear to be far off-base. I'd class him as yet another ex-military bod desperately trying to remain relevant.
Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.
OK. I'll play along. So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
Fell into the trap of being invaded ? Interesting suggestion that he should have marched on Moscow first.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
You mean the ones that said the SNP were crooked and not interested in Independence and were troughing and stealing all the cash donated. Right enough, you seem to be really up to speed on how things have gone.
Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.
It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.
It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
Please explain more about how a Russian victory would be a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. What does Russia have in store for them?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.
It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
Please explain more about how a Russian victory would be a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. What does Russia have in store for them?
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
You mean the ones that said the SNP were crooked and not interested in Independence and were troughing and stealing all the cash donated. Right enough, you seem to be really up to speed on how things have gone.
No, I mean the troublemakers. The people who hijack debates and aggressively harangue people. The Momentum of the independence movement.
Again just sweeping statements of no relevance. Who is being harangued, SNP are on the outrage bus due to people chastising them for being useless and crooks, why would you class that as haranguing.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
Does the SNP control the media??
In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
He manages to fill up every meeting he attends as well. SNP are scared to hold any meetings now because they cannot fill a telephone box.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
QT welcomes all manner of strange figures, so I wouldn't draw too many inferences.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
Ukraine claims one Patriot launcher was destroyed and one damaged. Russia claims five launchers were destroyed plus a system critical radar set. Who to believe? Destroying launchers will degrade performance, but destroying a radar set blinds the system and renders it inoperable. Either way, it was a brilliantly successful attack. The operators of the 240 (minus 1) Patriot fire units around the world have seen a practical demonstration of how it can be overwhelmed and defeated. That must make them very nervous. Reputationally, the Raytheon "Patriot" brand suffered a very public blow, along with the almighty US military-industrial complex.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
I just think the whole war is a tragic mistake that arose because Putin has the hots for Zelensky, who can play the piano with his penis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-UiadUOrfk
If Zelensky had only been willing to play the piano with Putin's penis, the whole thing could have been avoided.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
LOL Wagner could not beat a carpet. OK for murdering women and children but not so smart when they meet soldiers. Good at running back to Russian lines though.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
Thanks for the article. There are two distinct angles. What is good for the country, and what are the betting implications.
For the country there is one priority only - a non Tory government. Tories will be back. but they need a time to work out from what real principles they seek to run the country. We have no idea at the moment. Moment by moment pragmatism cannot take you through 13 years and three+ major critical events in UK and world.
The Tories cannot run the country with fewer than about 315 seats, 50 fewer than 2019. The polling is on track at least for that.
IMHO betting wise, most of the 55% of voters currently lost won't return this time, though most will return later.
Reform will do less well than polling. (Who are they? No-one has heard of them). 'Stay at home' will do well with usually Tory voters, as will the LDs.
The better the Tories do, the sooner they will be back. A Lab/LD/SNP government would not be pretty. Tories can't win in 2024, but they could 24 months later.
Labour cannot but disappoint anyway. There's no cash, and none of our problems need less than a decade to fix.
I don't see any way the Tories can turn their party around in 24 months. All the more if they have managed to prevent Labour securing a majority. They really do need to lose big time for any meaningful change to happen.
The whole point (and mandate) the Tories had in GE2019 from the Red Wall was that they'd grow The North like a mo-fo with Tory ways, using the private sector, tax breaks, enterprise zones, infrastructure and investment, rather than the "red" public sector subsidies, dependency, resentment and largesse.
Covid was a crappy hand, but delivery has been no-where near enough to match the scale of ambition.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
Wagnerites will take Bakhmut very soon indeed. "Bakhmut has fallen!" - the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are demoralized and say goodbye to loved ones Ukrainian militants began to record panic videos, where they have already come to terms with the defeat and loss of the city. One of the soldiers in the video under the shelling of the Wagner PMC says that "Bakhmut has fallen," and asks "not to commemorate dashingly." A couple of hours earlier, E. Prigozhin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had only 0,6 sq km left on the southwestern outskirts of the city, and the Wagner PMC was already close to fulfilling its task of capturing this enemy stronghold.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
QT welcomes all manner of strange figures, so I wouldn't draw too many inferences.
Nothing strange about him Nigel, he is still one of the best politicians in UK and it was a Scottish audience hearing reality rather than mince. Even the unionists in audience got it.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
According to a joint statement issued by the G7 leaders on the eve of the summit in Hiroshima, Japan, the G7 leaders have pledged to ensure that Russia is defeated in its war against Ukraine and to support a just peace based on respect for international law.
Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.
It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
Please explain more about how a Russian victory would be a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. What does Russia have in store for them?
The loss of ukrainian life is a tragedy for them.
What should they have done when their country was invaded? Stand by and wave the invaders in? This must be approaching the longest lightening campaign in the history of war. There was another war in Eastern Europe, started by a malevolent dictator. That ground to a halt, and the invaders fell into an attritional trap, before succumbing to a gigantic pincer. How is Bakhmut going?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
Does the SNP control the media??
In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
Sadly you’ve been banned, but you’ve excelled yourself here, linking the BBC and intelligence in one sentence…
West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.
You should never have have overthrown your Tsar and departed from the uneven path to constitutional monarchy and liberal democracy that Russia was following in the 1890s and 1900s.
That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.
It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument).
The focus seems to be on demoralising people and appealing to “realism” to draw an end to the war. In other words Russia already knows it can’t win so is trying to limit losses by engineering compromise. Expect some fanfare about ceasefire announcements when the counteroffensive gets going.
A stark contrast to early in the war, when it was all about trying to portray Ukrainians as Nazis, and mid-war when they were trying to scare Europeans about freezing to death.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
QT welcomes all manner of strange figures, so I wouldn't draw too many inferences.
Nothing strange about him Nigel, he is still one of the best politicians in UK and it was a Scottish audience hearing reality rather than mince. Even the unionists in audience got it.
I didn't say there was, malc. Just that a QT appearance isn't any great validation, given some of the utter dross that gets on the panel from time to time.
I can't comment on Salmond's performance as I didn't see it.
West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.
You should never have have overthrown your Tsar and departed from the uneven path to constitutional monarchy and liberal democracy that Russia was following in the 1890s and 1900s.
That's the mistake you made.
The failure of one those first revolutions, for a constitutional monarchy, was a disaster for Russia and the world.
It could have become a reasonably social democratic state, even while still incorporating a few more Marxist principles, like postwar Sweden, or Finland.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
I just think the whole war is a tragic mistake that arose because Putin has the hots for Zelensky, who can play the piano with his penis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-UiadUOrfk
If Zelensky had only been willing to play the piano with Putin's penis, the whole thing could have been avoided.
If only Zelensky had been willing to give Putin just one little kiss, all this could have been avoided:
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
Thats from 29th april. What is it with the incompetence of modern brits.
And, yet, James Bond owns you in every single film - check out how he lays the smack down on Red Grant and dismantles SMERSH. Real history.
We currently have dozens of such brilliant agents behind your lines, who also dress impeccably for dinner and seduce your women with their incomparable charm by the way, and you'll never know who they are.
That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.
It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument).
One interesting thing that's becoming increasingly clear is that the Kremlin picks up its talking points from the fringes of Western discourse rather than vice versa. They're not pulling the strings but rather trying to ride on the coattails.
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
Does the SNP control the media??
In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
That much of your population listen to when you aren't looking.
We are all over Russia and know everything about you, and we tie you up in knots.
Our spies will also beat you at baccarat every single time.
That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.
It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument)...
The strategy (such as it is) seems to be twofold. Get some sort of result in Bakhmut that can be presented as a win, and then attempt to stalemate and hold out for a Trump presidency.
The culture war stuff is definitely targeted at the US right - several of whose leaders are directly echoing some of the Russian lines (presented here in somewhat absurd exaggeration this morning by the lamented Campunt).
These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.
If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party. Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.
And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on. Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
Does the SNP control the media??
In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
Sadly you’ve been banned, but you’ve excelled yourself here, linking the BBC and intelligence in one sentence…
Well Guy Burgess, the country’s most famous intelligence officer, worked for the BBC
The Star has been very good at front pages recently. The only remaining tabloid that doesn’t take itself too seriously. Great one about dunking sausage rolls this week.
Incredible losses": the West will not be able to make up for the losses of the Ukrainian army Former adviser to the head of the Pentagon, Douglas McGregor, said that since the beginning of the Russian special operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost about 10,000 armored vehicles. Such losses are incredible and cannot be replenished.
I'll actually feed the troll in this case. 10,000 seems like an *incredible* amount, and it is certainly a grand claim. However, if we look back, we can see claims that Ukraine 'lost' 2,500 armoured vehicles in two years in the Donbass. Even with the larger scale of this conflict, 10,000 seems a bit of a stretch for the defenders. (1). A lot will depend on the classification of 'armoured vehicle'.
However, Douglas MacGregor has apparently been making lots of claims during this war that have not exactly panned out. E.g, from three days after the war started:
"The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over," and predicted "If [Ukraine] don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them." ".
And a few days later: " "The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle. They've now corrected that. So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over... I think the most heroic thing he could do right now is come to terms with reality. Neutralize Ukraine."
He seems to be rather optimistically pro-Russian; but his previous quotes and predictions appear to be far off-base. I'd class him as yet another ex-military bod desperately trying to remain relevant.
After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!
I just think the whole war is a tragic mistake that arose because Putin has the hots for Zelensky, who can play the piano with his penis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-UiadUOrfk
If Zelensky had only been willing to play the piano with Putin's penis, the whole thing could have been avoided.
If only Zelensky had been willing to give Putin just one little kiss, all this could have been avoided:
I just worry that when Putin sees this picture he is going to feel even more frustrated and things will escalate even more:
I think many people who are gay in the uk are not really gay but just want to be fashionable.
When I was growing up, if you wanted to be fashionable people would have assumed you were gay anyway. This was before David Beckham wore a sarong and the decline of the West really began. Can't believe I missed this guy BTW.
That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.
It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument).
The focus seems to be on demoralising people and appealing to “realism” to draw an end to the war. In other words Russia already knows it can’t win so is trying to limit losses by engineering compromise. Expect some fanfare about ceasefire announcements when the counteroffensive gets going.
A stark contrast to early in the war, when it was all about trying to portray Ukrainians as Nazis, and mid-war when they were trying to scare Europeans about freezing to death.
The homophobia is real. Russia is fascist in a very real sense of the word, and seeks to erase lifestyles that, in its view, do not match the virtues of tradition, conformity, and obedience. A large part of the anti-Western propaganda it churns out for domestic as well as foreign consumption is around immoral decadence harming the fabric of the pure and innocent nation.
Thank God we don't have anyone pedalling those kinds of lines here, eh?
I think many people who are gay in the uk are not really gay but just want to be fashionable.
When I was growing up, if you wanted to be fashionable people would have assumed you were gay anyway. This was before David Beckham wore a sarong and the decline of the West really began. Can't believe I missed this guy BTW.
Now, of course, it's fashionable to be seen to be vociferously opposed to homophobia and to sneer at patriotism as a bit parochial, which of course sums up @Farooq all over.
Fortunately, we both oppose Russia's authoritarianism despite our differences.
That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.
It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument)...
The strategy (such as it is) seems to be twofold. Get some sort of result in Bakhmut that can be presented as a win, and then attempt to stalemate and hold out for a Trump presidency.
The culture war stuff is definitely targeted at the US right - several of whose leaders are directly echoing some of the Russian lines (presented here in somewhat absurd exaggeration this morning by the lamented Campunt).
Its been a steady decline in ambition;
February 2022 - 'All over in three days' - fail Spring 2022 - encircle eastern Ukraine - fail Summer 2022 - occupy Donbass - fail Winter 2023 - freeze Europe, destroy Ukraine's infrastructure - fail Summer 2023 - hold on for 18 months with infantry
You are Alan Partridge and I claim my free pint of Directors
I can drive to Vladivostok in my underpants eating a lot of Toblerone and you'd never know.
At night, I'd look damn fine in black tie and beat all-comers at blackjack, vingt-et-un and poker, make superb puns and have all the Russian women throwing themselves at me begging to work for Britain.
That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.
It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument)...
The strategy (such as it is) seems to be twofold. Get some sort of result in Bakhmut that can be presented as a win, and then attempt to stalemate and hold out for a Trump presidency.
The culture war stuff is definitely targeted at the US right - several of whose leaders are directly echoing some of the Russian lines (presented here in somewhat absurd exaggeration this morning by the lamented Campunt).
There's also still some dissent on the near-pacifist left like me, who totally dislike Putin's invasion and see it as neo-imperialism, but who aren't comfortable with how we're escalating step by step in order to get an outright win. The Guardian piece from Mariupol (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/its-like-the-ussr-residents-on-life-in-mariupol-a-year-since-russian-occupation ) is entirely pro-Ukrainian in sentiment, but concedes that a large majority of the people now living there are either pro-Russian or neutral. Are we justified in encouraging Ukraine to fight until they've overrun places like this?
There are several counter-arguments. First, that Ukraine is indivisible, and we must encourage them to fight for every inch of its soil. Second, that the invasion must be punished by total defeat. And finally, that most of the pro-Ukrainian part of the population has simply fled - I don't think there has been explicit ethnic cleansing, but that's been the effect.
On the first point, I don't think Ukrainian nationalism with its ongoing sympathy for Bandera et al is so wonderful that we should be assisting its most militant claims - if a segment of the country doesn't want to be run by Kyiv, we should hesitate to help kill people until they're forced to accept it. On the second point, the invasion has obviously failed in its objectives at enormous cost, and Putin won't fool anyone if he claims that a ceasefire on current lines or worse is a victory. The history of enforcing total victory (cf. WW1) isn't always encouraging in the aftermath, and we want Putin's successor to be more sensible, not more revanchist. The third point is the strongest, but I wonder if it's worth indefinitely continuing the war to insist that people who used to live in X are able to return and displace anyone now living there.
It's not a popular view, and I hesitate to even express it (not least because I don't want to side with idiot far-right trolls), but I'd argue that there should be limits to how committed to total victory at any cost that we want to be.
According to a joint statement issued by the G7 leaders on the eve of the summit in Hiroshima, Japan, the G7 leaders have pledged to ensure that Russia is defeated in its war against Ukraine and to support a just peace based on respect for international law.
Troll fun aside, I think the G8 used to have a point as a forum for countries who often vehemently disagreed. With the EU being invited and now the country du jour in the form of Ukraine, it seems more of a choreographed publicity exercise, and therefore of less value.
Comments
Bye bye, troll.
I'll play along.
So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
People do not instantly flock to new political parties so hard to say at this point what will happen, especially given the state of the largest party in Scotland , the hatred for the London run unionist parties etc.
I would say as usual you are talking out of your biased unionist arse.
He’s so deep in the closet he’s having adventures in Narnia.
The lead amongst 25-49 is almost as great as the 18-24. And there is a lead amongst all age groups of working age.
I thought he was supposed to be a “puppet” ??
I will vote for either of those two or not at all.
“Cam-punt” can I suggest you report back to your line manager saying the PB members would like them to send someone a bit more sophisticated next Saturday. Cheers.
Alba's main image problem to me is more that it doesn't really have any image, outside of the indy blogosphere. Certainly not beyond Salmond himself, that is.
However, Douglas MacGregor has apparently been making lots of claims during this war that have not exactly panned out. E.g, from three days after the war started:
"The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over," and predicted "If [Ukraine] don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them." ".
And a few days later:
" "The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle. They've now corrected that. So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over... I think the most heroic thing he could do right now is come to terms with reality. Neutralize Ukraine."
He seems to be rather optimistically pro-Russian; but his previous quotes and predictions appear to be far off-base. I'd class him as yet another ex-military bod desperately trying to remain relevant.
(1): https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-armored-vehicles-significantly-damaged-2-years-of-donbas-conflict/30429979.html
(2): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor
Interesting suggestion that he should have marched on Moscow first.
"Couple get payout after water buffaloes fall into Essex swimming pool"
https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/29/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-soon-cease-exist/
Ukraine claims one Patriot launcher was destroyed and one damaged. Russia claims five launchers were destroyed plus a system critical radar set. Who to believe? Destroying launchers will degrade performance, but destroying a radar set blinds the system and renders it inoperable. Either way, it was a brilliantly successful attack. The operators of the 240 (minus 1) Patriot fire units around the world have seen a practical demonstration of how it can be overwhelmed and defeated. That must make them very nervous. Reputationally, the Raytheon "Patriot" brand suffered a very public blow, along with the almighty US military-industrial complex.
https://twitter.com/CheburekiMan/status/1659779873102258176?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-UiadUOrfk
If Zelensky had only been willing to play the piano with Putin's penis, the whole thing could have been avoided.
Covid was a crappy hand, but delivery has been no-where near enough to match the scale of ambition.
You need to seriously lay off the vodka.
https://twitter.com/TVajrayana/status/1659674673796243458?s=20
Who, in the Wagner group, do you find most impressive?
Put another way;
If Putin were to die, or be removed or whatever, who would you want to replace him? I’m genuinely interested in your perspective.
Who, in your opinion, are the runners and riders?
The G7 countries reaffirmed their commitment to provide the financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support Ukraine needs "for as long as necessary".
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1659871471114629120
There was another war in Eastern Europe, started by a malevolent dictator. That ground to a halt, and the invaders fell into an attritional trap, before succumbing to a gigantic pincer.
How is Bakhmut going?
That's the mistake you made.
It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument).
The focus seems to be on demoralising people and appealing to “realism” to draw an end to the war. In other words Russia already knows it can’t win so is trying to limit losses by engineering compromise. Expect some fanfare about ceasefire announcements when the counteroffensive gets going.
A stark contrast to early in the war, when it was all about trying to portray Ukrainians as Nazis, and mid-war when they were trying to scare Europeans about freezing to death.
Just that a QT appearance isn't any great validation, given some of the utter dross that gets on the panel from time to time.
I can't comment on Salmond's performance as I didn't see it.
It could have become a reasonably social democratic state, even while still incorporating a few more Marxist principles, like postwar Sweden, or Finland.
We currently have dozens of such brilliant agents behind your lines, who also dress impeccably for dinner and seduce your women with their incomparable charm by the way, and you'll never know who they are.
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
We are all over Russia and know everything about you, and we tie you up in knots.
Our spies will also beat you at baccarat every single time.
Get some sort of result in Bakhmut that can be presented as a win, and then attempt to stalemate and hold out for a Trump presidency.
The culture war stuff is definitely targeted at the US right - several of whose leaders are directly echoing some of the Russian lines (presented here in somewhat absurd exaggeration this morning by the lamented Campunt).
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/7772/production/_129787503_mediaitem129787502.jpg.webp
https://www.youtube.com/@BeginYourJourneyy/videos
Makes me feel sad for the rest.
Can't believe I missed this guy BTW.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1659875567712325633
Fortunately, we both oppose Russia's authoritarianism despite our differences.
February 2022 - 'All over in three days' - fail
Spring 2022 - encircle eastern Ukraine - fail
Summer 2022 - occupy Donbass - fail
Winter 2023 - freeze Europe, destroy Ukraine's infrastructure - fail
Summer 2023 - hold on for 18 months with infantry
At night, I'd look damn fine in black tie and beat all-comers at blackjack, vingt-et-un and poker, make superb puns and have all the Russian women throwing themselves at me begging to work for Britain.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trudeau-calls-out-italy-on-lgbtq2s-rights-during-meeting-with-meloni-at-g7-summit-1.6405482
There are several counter-arguments. First, that Ukraine is indivisible, and we must encourage them to fight for every inch of its soil. Second, that the invasion must be punished by total defeat. And finally, that most of the pro-Ukrainian part of the population has simply fled - I don't think there has been explicit ethnic cleansing, but that's been the effect.
On the first point, I don't think Ukrainian nationalism with its ongoing sympathy for Bandera et al is so wonderful that we should be assisting its most militant claims - if a segment of the country doesn't want to be run by Kyiv, we should hesitate to help kill people until they're forced to accept it. On the second point, the invasion has obviously failed in its objectives at enormous cost, and Putin won't fool anyone if he claims that a ceasefire on current lines or worse is a victory. The history of enforcing total victory (cf. WW1) isn't always encouraging in the aftermath, and we want Putin's successor to be more sensible, not more revanchist. The third point is the strongest, but I wonder if it's worth indefinitely continuing the war to insist that people who used to live in X are able to return and displace anyone now living there.
It's not a popular view, and I hesitate to even express it (not least because I don't want to side with idiot far-right trolls), but I'd argue that there should be limits to how committed to total victory at any cost that we want to be.