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Starmer is still struggling to win Tory converts – politicalbetting.com

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  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Incredible losses": the West will not be able to make up for the losses of the Ukrainian army Former adviser to the head of the Pentagon, Douglas McGregor, said that since the beginning of the Russian special operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost about 10,000 armored vehicles. Such losses are incredible and cannot be replenished.

    https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1658009191879933955?s=20
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,024
    FF43 said:

    TimS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the water, borrowing to pay dividends when you're a monopoly provider should have been completely illegal

    Indeed. But the prevailing view was that any regulation of this was bad, and New Labour was also complicit in this, as we saw in the artlcle below.

    Ofwat is also still basically toothless compared to any comparable regulator in any neighbouring, or major European countries. We need to get out of this very strange , and uniquely and inflexibly , ultra-laissex faire approach to all these kind of issues, before they get worse. It also what happens when "the market" is lazily and undifferentiatedly described as inherently wise for 30 years.
    There was quite a convincing debunking of the sewage story on Twitter this morning. By a Tory supporting brexiteer, but nobody has yet debunked the debunking so he may well have a point. One of those threads that contradicts my deeply held beliefs and changes my mind. Any experts out there able to tell me if he’s missing something?

    https://twitter.com/loftussteve/status/1659637753158545414?s=46
    Debunk it a bit. On the comparative data on water quality that he points to, the bad boys are England, Germany and the Netherlands. So not uniquely bad, but bad compared with Europe as a whole. The concern that I don't know if is the case and which he doesn't address, is that England could be slipping further behind comparatively, possibly in part because of Brexit.
    So the countries rated the worst are those most likely to be doing the most reporting ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,889

    Campunt said:

    think we need to bow our heads and share a moment of silence in behalf of the hard-coping Ukraine fans who are suffering through a very difficult past few days. While they achieved a well-earned but fleeting triumph by ambushing 2 RuAF jets and 2 helicopters, it's been all downhill since then. The annihilation of the ammo dumps at Pavlograd and Khmelnytsky has undoubtedly struck a severe blow against the prospects of a credible Ukrainian offensive. Their rapidly dwindling air fleet has been reduced by 2 more Su-24s, an Su-25, and a MiG-29. No fewer than 8 of the recently delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles have been shot down, along with many HARMS and HIMARS missiles that failed to reach their intended targets. In extraordinarily dramatic fashion, an entire Patriot missile battery has been reduced to scattered shards of smoldering metal. Alas, all the most recent wunderwaffen have fallen far short of their lofty expectations. And now, to add humiliating insult to injury, the impotent Bakhmut counterattack has been decisively routed, with severe losses, and the AFU is finally giving up the fight for the ashes and rubble that will now once again assume the name Artemovsk. Zelensky has undoubtedly conducted his final begging tour of European capitals, obtaining from the vassal puppets more empty promises. Now his days are numbered ...

    https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1658494355899047939?s=20

    How's the weather in Moscow this morning?
    I'm curious as to how much of this stuff they actually believe.
    Do you think we could 'turn' one of them and get them working for us? A PB troll inside the Moscow factory. :)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    The Saturday bots always seem to me a blend of HYUFD and Dura Ace in tone.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,810
    edited May 2023
    Campunt said:

    eek said:

    Cicero said:

    FF43 said:

    Put it another way, currently less than half of 2019 Conservative voters will vote the same way next time. I think there will be some reversion of Reform Party supporters and Don't Knows but not nearly enough, unless anything else changes.

    And add critical other point. There's no churn in these tables. No-one is moving to the Conservatives to make up their losses.

    This is the most deadly issue. Voters have made up their minds on at least one point: The Tories must go.

    Sir Kier may not have sealed to deal but the risk for him is not that they will go back to the Tories, but that the voters follow though on a Cleggasm style surge to Sir Edward and this time they actually make it to the ballot box. The prosperous middle class of Sevenoaks and Camberley are clearly flirting with the idea now.
    I don't think that is a risk for Labour - there are few seats that a Labour / Lib Dem or 3 way marginals where no clear anti-tory candidate isn't obvious.

    The worry for the Tory party is that both sides switch anti-tory at the same time at which point it's very possible that the Lib Dems collect 30-40 seats leaving the Tories at 130-160 seats.
    One thing thats not taken into account for tory prospects is how the ukraine war goes. With our decision to send f16 fighter jets we are pretty much all in and given the sacrifices made by us all over the past year any reversals on the battlefield could well play badly.
    How many of their zero F16s, will the UK be sending to Ukraine?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,881
    Campunt said:

    The writing of Foreign Affairs and National Interest reveals that the USA is already "looking back" on Ukraine NI: WASHINGTON MADE A STRATEGIC MISTAKE BY ENTERING THE WAR AGAINST RUSSIA FA: "It's time for the West to start more actively planning the future of Ukraine, not focusing only on the announced counter-offensive." History shows that some conflicts can be very difficult to end" NI: "The irony of the situation is that the West was drawn into the war against Russia at the very moment when it should have been developing a dialogue with it in order to oppose China... The US is in the mood for a confrontation with two great powers, and only naive optimists believe that Washington can win"

    https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status/1658740124908126209?s=20

    Give my respects to Vlad when you see him!
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,170
    edited May 2023
    Sean_F said:

    How many minutes before the ban hammer strikes.

    I think we should have some fun with this one.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,889
    Farooq said:

    The Saturday bots always seem to me a blend of HYUFD and Dura Ace in tone.

    Maybe that is it. Maybe it is Robert creating these trolls using AI from a mix of PB posters. If he is then I think he is using a very old version of ChatGPT to do it :)
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Where is the ukraine spring counter offensive. Why is it repeadetly delayed hmmm
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Campunt said:

    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.

    No, we don't know the truth. We're all brainwashed capitalist clones in fading, decadent society. Only God's chosen, the Third Rome, can save us from our own decay. O Lord Vlad, show us the way!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,810
    Campunt said:

    West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.

    LOL. The only humiliation going on, is that of Vladimir Putin and his Potemkin army.

    Bye bye, troll.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Campunt said:

    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.

    OK.
    I'll play along.
    So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,348
    Campunt said:

    Where is the ukraine spring counter offensive. Why is it repeadetly delayed hmmm

    What are your thoughts on Covid vaccines?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,300
    Campunt said:

    West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.

    At least Lord Haw Haw played the latest jazz sounds between the propoganda.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    What is a separatist. Unionists is like saying bears shit in the woods.
    People do not instantly flock to new political parties so hard to say at this point what will happen, especially given the state of the largest party in Scotland , the hatred for the London run unionist parties etc.
    I would say as usual you are talking out of your biased unionist arse.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,889

    Sean_F said:

    How many minutes before the ban hammer strikes.

    I think we should have some fun with this one.
    We could but the trouble is there is no quality to them. No challenge. Some of those from last year were a lot of fun. Some of them even knew how to write coherent English. This latest batch sound like they were dragged off the streets of Vladivostok and taught English by a Mongolian yak herder.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    dixiedean said:

    Campunt said:

    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.

    OK.
    I'll play along.
    So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
    Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    Campunt said:

    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.

    When is the victory parade in Kyiv then
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,810
    Campunt said:
    Putin is now Xi’s bitch. Yet Xi won’t even help him out by sending any weapons.
  • Campunt said:

    Where is the ukraine spring counter offensive. Why is it repeadetly delayed hmmm

    I must have missed the calendar invite they sent out for it
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    What is a separatist. Unionists is like saying bears shit in the woods.
    People do not instantly flock to new political parties so hard to say at this point what will happen, especially given the state of the largest party in Scotland , the hatred for the London run unionist parties etc.
    I would say as usual you are talking out of your biased unionist arse.
    I'm not a unionist, I'm on the fence on independence. I could vote for or against.
    Also, I'm not against the idea of Alba. I think multiple parties on both sides can only be a good thing for Scottish democracy. I just don't think Alba have a future because they have a profound image problem.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29

    Is there a betting market on when Vladimir Putin will come out of the closet?

    He’s so deep in the closet he’s having adventures in Narnia.




    As the uk demographically transitions i dont think the gay areas in the uk will exist in 30 years.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,810
    Campunt said:

    This is what im worried about.

    An official declaration of Russian victory for the Battle for Bakhmut is expected within the coming days. Given the depletion of reportedly 300,000+ Ukrainian forces combined with their inadequate air defense capabilities, this is expected to be a watershed moment in the war.

    https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/1659646546068029440?s=20

    Worried about the Russian victory in Bakhmut being about as successful as the Russian victory in Kherson?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Standout from the tables in the header for me is this. Apologies if it has been noted.
    The lead amongst 25-49 is almost as great as the 18-24. And there is a lead amongst all age groups of working age.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,348
    Campunt said:

    Is there a betting market on when Vladimir Putin will come out of the closet?

    He’s so deep in the closet he’s having adventures in Narnia.




    As the uk demographically transitions i dont think the gay areas in the uk will exist in 30 years.
    What are these gay areas and how does one visit them? They sound fun.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Campunt said:

    Is there a betting market on when Vladimir Putin will come out of the closet?

    He’s so deep in the closet he’s having adventures in Narnia.




    As the uk demographically transitions i dont think the gay areas in the uk will exist in 30 years.
    Ok, I know where this is going and it's a Nope from me.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    dixiedean said:

    Standout from the tables in the header for me is this. Apologies if it has been noted.
    The lead amongst 25-49 is almost as great as the 18-24. And there is a lead amongst all age groups of working age.

    Yes and from my conversations support for the ukraine war is falling. Zelensky is seen for what he is.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,413
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,955
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I hope they stand in a few selected seats where they can get rid of a few of the worst idiots. Pete Wishart, Kirsten Oswald and John Nicolson for example.
  • pingping Posts: 3,731
    Campunt said:

    dixiedean said:

    Campunt said:

    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.

    OK.
    I'll play along.
    So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
    Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
    It’s interesting you’re choosing to give Zelenskyy agency.

    I thought he was supposed to be a “puppet” ??
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    TimS said:

    Campunt said:

    Is there a betting market on when Vladimir Putin will come out of the closet?

    He’s so deep in the closet he’s having adventures in Narnia.




    As the uk demographically transitions i dont think the gay areas in the uk will exist in 30 years.
    What are these gay areas and how does one visit them? They sound fun.
    Visit them now they will be gone in 30 years as the west changes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,810
    Campunt said:

    dixiedean said:

    Standout from the tables in the header for me is this. Apologies if it has been noted.
    The lead amongst 25-49 is almost as great as the 18-24. And there is a lead amongst all age groups of working age.

    Yes and from my conversations support for the ukraine war is falling. Zelensky is seen for what he is.
    Where do you live? Where I live, I see thousands of rich Russians who have got the hell out of their failing hellhole of a country, taking their money with them. They won’t be going back when the war finishes either.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    What is a separatist. Unionists is like saying bears shit in the woods.
    People do not instantly flock to new political parties so hard to say at this point what will happen, especially given the state of the largest party in Scotland , the hatred for the London run unionist parties etc.
    I would say as usual you are talking out of your biased unionist arse.
    I'm not a unionist, I'm on the fence on independence. I could vote for or against.
    Also, I'm not against the idea of Alba. I think multiple parties on both sides can only be a good thing for Scottish democracy. I just don't think Alba have a future because they have a profound image problem.
    Time will tell, we for sure need an alternative Scottish party to the corrupt SNP and not any of the London lickspittle sockpuppet parties fit the bill. Greens are thick crooks so only leaves ISP or ALBA as real Independence parties at present.
    I will vote for either of those two or not at all.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    I think many people who are gay in the uk are not really gay but just want to be fashionable.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,348
    ping said:

    Campunt said:

    dixiedean said:

    Campunt said:

    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.

    OK.
    I'll play along.
    So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
    Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
    It’s interesting you’re choosing to give Zelenskyy agency.

    I thought he was supposed to be a “puppet” ??
    It’s a case of chucking all sorts of shit at the wall and seeing what sticks.

    “Cam-punt” can I suggest you report back to your line manager saying the PB members would like them to send someone a bit more sophisticated next Saturday. Cheers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097

    Campunt said:

    think we need to bow our heads and share a moment of silence in behalf of the hard-coping Ukraine fans who are suffering through a very difficult past few days. While they achieved a well-earned but fleeting triumph by ambushing 2 RuAF jets and 2 helicopters, it's been all downhill since then. The annihilation of the ammo dumps at Pavlograd and Khmelnytsky has undoubtedly struck a severe blow against the prospects of a credible Ukrainian offensive. Their rapidly dwindling air fleet has been reduced by 2 more Su-24s, an Su-25, and a MiG-29. No fewer than 8 of the recently delivered Storm Shadow cruise missiles have been shot down, along with many HARMS and HIMARS missiles that failed to reach their intended targets. In extraordinarily dramatic fashion, an entire Patriot missile battery has been reduced to scattered shards of smoldering metal. Alas, all the most recent wunderwaffen have fallen far short of their lofty expectations. And now, to add humiliating insult to injury, the impotent Bakhmut counterattack has been decisively routed, with severe losses, and the AFU is finally giving up the fight for the ashes and rubble that will now once again assume the name Artemovsk. Zelensky has undoubtedly conducted his final begging tour of European capitals, obtaining from the vassal puppets more empty promises. Now his days are numbered ...

    https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1658494355899047939?s=20

    How's the weather in Moscow this morning?
    I'm curious as to how much of this stuff they actually believe.
    Alternatively there's a large number of Russians trying to break into the alt-history genre, and they'd heard PB was frequented by significant figures in the publishing trade ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I hope they stand in a few selected seats where they can get rid of a few of the worst idiots. Pete Wishart, Kirsten Oswald and John Nicolson for example.
    I agree Red, come Holyrood unless big changes people will realise they need to use 2nd vote for Independence parties and not gift shedloads of seats to unionists, assuming SNP are still winning constituency seats that is, big if the way they are going though.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,074
    Campunt said:

    Is there a betting market on when Vladimir Putin will come out of the closet?

    He’s so deep in the closet he’s having adventures in Narnia.




    As the uk demographically transitions i dont think the gay areas in the uk will exist in 30 years.
    I think we need a comment from you about Putin's secret gay agenda. The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Think russia has the right balance on the gay issue tolerate but dont promote and no gay ghettos
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,955
    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    Are you still here? The mods must be having a morning off!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,948
    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Farooq said:

    Campunt said:

    Is there a betting market on when Vladimir Putin will come out of the closet?

    He’s so deep in the closet he’s having adventures in Narnia.




    As the uk demographically transitions i dont think the gay areas in the uk will exist in 30 years.
    Ok, I know where this is going and it's a Nope from me.
    Campunt said:

    I think many people who are gay in the uk are not really gay but just want to be fashionable.

    Who could possibly have seen that coming.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29

    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    Are you still here? The mods must be having a morning off!
    How could you do without my wisdom sadly lacking in western leaders
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
    The flipside of the "it's where the troublemakers have gone" argument is that what that means for the SNP is it's where the supine, careerist non-rock-the-boats have stayed.

    Alba's main image problem to me is more that it doesn't really have any image, outside of the indy blogosphere. Certainly not beyond Salmond himself, that is.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,811
    Campunt said:

    Incredible losses": the West will not be able to make up for the losses of the Ukrainian army Former adviser to the head of the Pentagon, Douglas McGregor, said that since the beginning of the Russian special operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost about 10,000 armored vehicles. Such losses are incredible and cannot be replenished.

    https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1658009191879933955?s=20

    I'll actually feed the troll in this case. 10,000 seems like an *incredible* amount, and it is certainly a grand claim. However, if we look back, we can see claims that Ukraine 'lost' 2,500 armoured vehicles in two years in the Donbass. Even with the larger scale of this conflict, 10,000 seems a bit of a stretch for the defenders. (1). A lot will depend on the classification of 'armoured vehicle'.

    However, Douglas MacGregor has apparently been making lots of claims during this war that have not exactly panned out. E.g, from three days after the war started:

    "The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over," and predicted "If [Ukraine] don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them." ".

    And a few days later:
    " "The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle. They've now corrected that. So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over... I think the most heroic thing he could do right now is come to terms with reality. Neutralize Ukraine."

    He seems to be rather optimistically pro-Russian; but his previous quotes and predictions appear to be far off-base. I'd class him as yet another ex-military bod desperately trying to remain relevant.

    (1): https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-armored-vehicles-significantly-damaged-2-years-of-donbas-conflict/30429979.html
    (2): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_Macgregor
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    Campunt said:

    dixiedean said:

    Campunt said:

    Hmm not one counter argumentbyet apart from acvusing me of being a russian bot. You all know the truth and are afraid to admit it.

    OK.
    I'll play along.
    So why aren't the Russians in Kyiv?
    Russian strategy is to degrade the ukrainian army and air defences not just capture territory. When this is done the way is clear. Fool zelensky fell into the trap.
    Fell into the trap of being invaded ?
    Interesting suggestion that he should have marched on Moscow first.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,456
    edited May 2023
    Guardian headline to savour. Perhaps a Russian chatbot has gone off piste:

    "Couple get payout after water buffaloes fall into Essex swimming pool"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
    You mean the ones that said the SNP were crooked and not interested in Independence and were troughing and stealing all the cash donated. Right enough, you seem to be really up to speed on how things have gone.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    algarkirk said:

    Guardian headline to savour:

    "Couple get payout after water buffaloes fall into Essex swimming pool"

    This happened to us last year.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29

    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
    Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few

    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    Are you still here? The mods must be having a morning off!
    They are too busy laughing their socks off.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    Campunt said:

    I think many people who are gay in the uk are not really gay but just want to be fashionable.

    Only Russians are genuinely gay ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,948
    Campunt said:

    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
    Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
    Please explain more about how a Russian victory would be a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. What does Russia have in store for them?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
    You mean the ones that said the SNP were crooked and not interested in Independence and were troughing and stealing all the cash donated. Right enough, you seem to be really up to speed on how things have gone.
    No, I mean the troublemakers. The people who hijack debates and aggressively harangue people. The Momentum of the independence movement.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    Campunt said:

    ...Trump supports russia too.

    True dat.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,955

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29

    Campunt said:

    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
    Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
    Please explain more about how a Russian victory would be a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. What does Russia have in store for them?
    The loss of ukrainian life is a tragedy for them.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    Does the SNP control the media??
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
    You mean the ones that said the SNP were crooked and not interested in Independence and were troughing and stealing all the cash donated. Right enough, you seem to be really up to speed on how things have gone.
    No, I mean the troublemakers. The people who hijack debates and aggressively harangue people. The Momentum of the independence movement.
    Again just sweeping statements of no relevance. Who is being harangued, SNP are on the outrage bus due to people chastising them for being useless and crooks, why would you class that as haranguing.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    Does the SNP control the media??
    In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    He manages to fill up every meeting he attends as well. SNP are scared to hold any meetings now because they cannot fill a telephone box.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    QT welcomes all manner of strange figures, so I wouldn't draw too many inferences.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,810
    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, isn’t quite so optimistic.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/29/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-soon-cease-exist/
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    Does the SNP control the media??
    It certainly used to
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Us military reputation taking severe blows now.

    Ukraine claims one Patriot launcher was destroyed and one damaged. Russia claims five launchers were destroyed plus a system critical radar set. Who to believe? Destroying launchers will degrade performance, but destroying a radar set blinds the system and renders it inoperable. Either way, it was a brilliantly successful attack. The operators of the 240 (minus 1) Patriot fire units around the world have seen a practical demonstration of how it can be overwhelmed and defeated. That must make them very nervous. Reputationally, the Raytheon "Patriot" brand suffered a very public blow, along with the almighty US military-industrial complex.

    https://twitter.com/CheburekiMan/status/1659779873102258176?s=20
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,074
    edited May 2023
    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    I just think the whole war is a tragic mistake that arose because Putin has the hots for Zelensky, who can play the piano with his penis:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-UiadUOrfk

    If Zelensky had only been willing to play the piano with Putin's penis, the whole thing could have been avoided.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    Yes, that's part of it. But it's not just Salmond. It's where the troublemakers have gone. That's probably not a sustainable beginning.
    You mean the ones that said the SNP were crooked and not interested in Independence and were troughing and stealing all the cash donated. Right enough, you seem to be really up to speed on how things have gone.
    No, I mean the troublemakers. The people who hijack debates and aggressively harangue people. The Momentum of the independence movement.
    Again just sweeping statements of no relevance. Who is being harangued, SNP are on the outrage bus due to people chastising them for being useless and crooks, why would you class that as haranguing.
    I don't think holding the SNP to account is haranguing. I'm talking about the local level.
    I know people who are SNP members who have said, independently of one another, that the pains in the arse have left for Alba and behaviour at meetings has improved.

    I don't know whether we have any other Alba supporters on here or if you're the only one, but you seem to fit the pattern too.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    LOL Wagner could not beat a carpet. OK for murdering women and children but not so smart when they meet soldiers. Good at running back to Russian lines though.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Sandpit said:

    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, isn’t quite so optimistic.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/29/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-soon-cease-exist/
    Thats from 29th april. What is it with the incompetence of modern brits.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,192

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. There are two distinct angles. What is good for the country, and what are the betting implications.

    For the country there is one priority only - a non Tory government. Tories will be back. but they need a time to work out from what real principles they seek to run the country. We have no idea at the moment. Moment by moment pragmatism cannot take you through 13 years and three+ major critical events in UK and world.

    The Tories cannot run the country with fewer than about 315 seats, 50 fewer than 2019. The polling is on track at least for that.

    IMHO betting wise, most of the 55% of voters currently lost won't return this time, though most will return later.

    Reform will do less well than polling. (Who are they? No-one has heard of them). 'Stay at home' will do well with usually Tory voters, as will the LDs.

    The better the Tories do, the sooner they will be back. A Lab/LD/SNP government would not be pretty. Tories can't win in 2024, but they could 24 months later.

    Labour cannot but disappoint anyway. There's no cash, and none of our problems need less than a decade to fix.

    I don't see any way the Tories can turn their party around in 24 months. All the more if they have managed to prevent Labour securing a majority. They really do need to lose big time for any meaningful change to happen.
    The whole point (and mandate) the Tories had in GE2019 from the Red Wall was that they'd grow The North like a mo-fo with Tory ways, using the private sector, tax breaks, enterprise zones, infrastructure and investment, rather than the "red" public sector subsidies, dependency, resentment and largesse.

    Covid was a crappy hand, but delivery has been no-where near enough to match the scale of ambition.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    It's not even 2pm in Moscow.
    You need to seriously lay off the vodka.
  • CampuntCampunt Posts: 29
    Wagnerites will take Bakhmut very soon indeed. "Bakhmut has fallen!" - the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are demoralized and say goodbye to loved ones Ukrainian militants began to record panic videos, where they have already come to terms with the defeat and loss of the city. One of the soldiers in the video under the shelling of the Wagner PMC says that "Bakhmut has fallen," and asks "not to commemorate dashingly." A couple of hours earlier, E. Prigozhin said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had only 0,6 sq km left on the southwestern outskirts of the city, and the Wagner PMC was already close to fulfilling its task of capturing this enemy stronghold.

    https://twitter.com/TVajrayana/status/1659674673796243458?s=20
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    QT welcomes all manner of strange figures, so I wouldn't draw too many inferences.
    Nothing strange about him Nigel, he is still one of the best politicians in UK and it was a Scottish audience hearing reality rather than mince. Even the unionists in audience got it.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 10,775
    Campunt said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    Does the SNP control the media??
    In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
    Don't talk to me you fucking homophobe
  • pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited May 2023
    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    Genuine question,

    Who, in the Wagner group, do you find most impressive?

    Put another way;

    If Putin were to die, or be removed or whatever, who would you want to replace him? I’m genuinely interested in your perspective.

    Who, in your opinion, are the runners and riders?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    According to a joint statement issued by the G7 leaders on the eve of the summit in Hiroshima, Japan, the G7 leaders have pledged to ensure that Russia is defeated in its war against Ukraine and to support a just peace based on respect for international law.

    The G7 countries reaffirmed their commitment to provide the financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support Ukraine needs "for as long as necessary".

    https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1659871471114629120


  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,809
    Enough fun I must be of fand do something relevant, enjoy your Saturday and poking sticks at Ivan
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,070
    Campunt said:

    Campunt said:

    Campunt said:

    Once the us election cycle starts its over for ukraine aid. Then ukraine will collapse. Trump supports russia too.

    It's revealing that even you think that Russia's best chance is for its three day speicial operation to last three years and that Ukraine can survive indefinitely with the help of the West.
    Ukraine will loseceithercway now sadly. A tragedy for their people who i like very much.
    Please explain more about how a Russian victory would be a tragedy for the Ukrainian people. What does Russia have in store for them?
    The loss of ukrainian life is a tragedy for them.
    What should they have done when their country was invaded? Stand by and wave the invaders in? This must be approaching the longest lightening campaign in the history of war.
    There was another war in Eastern Europe, started by a malevolent dictator. That ground to a halt, and the invaders fell into an attritional trap, before succumbing to a gigantic pincer.
    How is Bakhmut going?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,192
    Campunt said:

    West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz6kYe-DUTo
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,070
    Campunt said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    Does the SNP control the media??
    In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
    Sadly you’ve been banned, but you’ve excelled yourself here, linking the BBC and intelligence in one sentence…
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,192
    Campunt said:

    West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.

    You should never have have overthrown your Tsar and departed from the uneven path to constitutional monarchy and liberal democracy that Russia was following in the 1890s and 1900s.

    That's the mistake you made.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few
    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    QT welcomes all manner of strange figures, so I wouldn't draw too many inferences.
    Nothing strange about him Nigel, he is still one of the best politicians in UK and it was a Scottish audience hearing reality rather than mince. Even the unionists in audience got it.
    I didn't say there was, malc.
    Just that a QT appearance isn't any great validation, given some of the utter dross that gets on the panel from time to time.

    I can't comment on Salmond's performance as I didn't see it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited May 2023

    Campunt said:

    West is being humiliated by russia now. It is in ukraines interest to push for peace before they lose more of their good men.

    You should never have have overthrown your Tsar and departed from the uneven path to constitutional monarchy and liberal democracy that Russia was following in the 1890s and 1900s.

    That's the mistake you made.
    The failure of one those first revolutions, for a constitutional monarchy, was a disaster for Russia and the world.

    It could have become a reasonably social democratic state, even while still incorporating a few more Marxist principles, like postwar Sweden, or Finland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    Thanks Vlad but Kyiv is still in Zelensky's hands
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,967
    malcolmg said:

    Enough fun I must be of fand do something relevant, enjoy your Saturday and poking sticks at Ivan

    Have a good day Malc.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,074
    edited May 2023
    Chris said:

    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    I just think the whole war is a tragic mistake that arose because Putin has the hots for Zelensky, who can play the piano with his penis:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-UiadUOrfk

    If Zelensky had only been willing to play the piano with Putin's penis, the whole thing could have been avoided.
    If only Zelensky had been willing to give Putin just one little kiss, all this could have been avoided:
    image
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,192
    edited May 2023
    Campunt said:

    Sandpit said:

    Campunt said:

    After the hardest fighting in Europe since WW2 Wagner Group stands victorious. A highly trained enemy with hundreds of billions of dollars and the best mercenaries the NATO world can offer. Blood! Honor! Motherland! Courage! still wins in the end. Be True to Yourself!

    https://twitter.com/JamesPorrazzo/status/1659672458482294787?s=20

    Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, isn’t quite so optimistic.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/29/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-soon-cease-exist/
    Thats from 29th april. What is it with the incompetence of modern brits.
    And, yet, James Bond owns you in every single film - check out how he lays the smack down on Red Grant and dismantles SMERSH. Real history.

    We currently have dozens of such brilliant agents behind your lines, who also dress impeccably for dinner and seduce your women with their incomparable charm by the way, and you'll never know who they are.

    Be afraid. Be very afraid.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,948
    TimS said:

    That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.

    It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument).

    One interesting thing that's becoming increasingly clear is that the Kremlin picks up its talking points from the fringes of Western discourse rather than vice versa. They're not pulling the strings but rather trying to ride on the coattails.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,192
    Campunt said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    Farooq said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    These VI polls are, and always have been, very unreliable. The Conservative Party will likely end up with no less than 35% of the popular vote come the next election, because well-to-do older people will shuffle back to them, and there'll be a Hung Parliament. My guesstimate of the outcome remains Lab 300, Con 260, SNP 40, LD 25.

    If it's 42 Lab, 35 Con, then with the SNP down to 38-40% in Scotland, we can probably expect a small Labour majority.

    Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.

    Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
    The SNP aren't in as much trouble as is generally assumed. The Blue Woad Brigade has, after all, nowhere else to go. Labour will be doing very well to pick up a dozen seats.

    Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
    No, they are in trouble and they do have somewhere else to go. I recommend reading some of the excellent threads on Wings over Scotland* and then dipping below the line there for as long as you can thole. Campbell is a good writer, witty and with a finely developed sense of the absurd but his readers are the sort of people whom we used to call cybernats and they now hate the SNP with a passion.

    My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
    I don't see them going to Labour David, that is out of frying pan into the fire. More likely to not vote or go to any other independence party.
    Personally it would be good to see them hammered and for us to be shafted by Labour to waken up the idiots who still think they are anything other than London sockpuppets. Westminster is not important for Scotland, it needs people with backbone in Holyrood and Labour shafting us would stiffen some of the spineless.
    Will Alba be standing candidates against the SNP? Indeed will their two MPs - originally elected as SNP - be standing for re-election?
    I would hope they stand a few but their focus will be Holyrood. Westminster is not important other than to disrupt, current mob have gone native thanks to the money poured at them. It is in Holyrood or Scotland at large by Convention . where Independence will be decided. Westminster is a sideshow.
    I don't think Alba will exist in a meaningful way in a few years' time. They are seen as extremist weirdos in most quarters.
    Can you name some of these quarters. They are all the long term Independence supporters who have left SNP. Just spouting shite is pretty dumb even for you.
    Yeah, I'll name two: unionists and separatists.

    And sorry, the polling entirely supports this. Alba are bumping along the bottom. Two percent. Three percent. When 5% is the outlier on the upside, you know that something drastic needs to happen. And, honestly, given drastic things HAVE been happening and there's still no breakthrough suggests that I am spot on.
    Politics is a bitch, and Alba are probably doomed. I can't see any evidence to the contrary, only wishful thinking.
    Problem for Alba is that Salmond draws attention to them and gives them a voice, but he's so personally unpopular that he imposes a low ceiling on their potential vote. A conundrum.
    BBC QT was interesting last Thursday. The reaction to Alex Salmond improved markedly during the programme as people realised he talked sense and wasn’t the ogre depicted by the media. I was particularly intrigued that he was invited onto QT. Is the SNP’s control of the media weakening?
    Does the SNP control the media??
    In the same way the bbc is a branch of uk intelligence services
    That much of your population listen to when you aren't looking.

    We are all over Russia and know everything about you, and we tie you up in knots.

    Our spies will also beat you at baccarat every single time.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,097
    edited May 2023
    TimS said:

    That one certainly made the most of his or her half hour or so of trolling. Quite an output.

    It is actually interesting to get a look in on the lines being taken by Moscow. I assume most efforts are directed at US social media hence the right wing themes and homophobia, as well as the mention of how much the support is costing (which is a very US isolationist style argument)...

    The strategy (such as it is) seems to be twofold.
    Get some sort of result in Bakhmut that can be presented as a win, and then attempt to stalemate and hold out for a Trump presidency.

    The culture war stuff is definitely targeted at the US right - several of whose leaders are directly echoing some of the Russian lines (presented here in somewhat absurd exaggeration this morning by the lamented Campunt).

  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,955
    I know it’s the Daily Star, but today’s headline is excellent!
    https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/7772/production/_129787503_mediaitem129787502.jpg.webp
This discussion has been closed.