Starmer is still struggling to win Tory converts – politicalbetting.com
The above is the detailed data from this week’s YouGov poll which I show to highlight a big problem for Labour – although the Tory share is right down only a relatively small proportion of GE2019 CON voters have made the switch to Starmer’s party.
Our time is near....
Nothing surprising about this. Something similar happened at the last GE. Fear of Corbyn discouraged any flirting with third Party candidates, much to the disadvantage of the LDs.
Now that the Conservatives are returning to more normal levels of support, and Starmer (for all his faults) seems a less frightening figure than Corbyn, the LDs can hope to flourish again. Indeed we are seeing a mini-revival back to the levels they enjoyed just before the Great Truss Experiment.
This is not helpful for Sunak. He will be fighting on two fronts at the next GE. Starmer may not win an overall majority, but if the Tories lose a sizeable chunk to Davey (yes, him) that will be little comfort to them.
If I were betting now (I'm not) I would invest on the basis of Labour at or around 325 seats, and LDs 30 or so. That would suggest Tories on about 220, which in the circumstances wouldn't be a bad effort. (I'm also assuming a large measure of tactical voting which will not be to the Governments advantage.)
How far out am I, PBers? I'm off to walk the dog. Back in about an hour. Let me know by then, please.
Isn't it rather counter-intuitive to suggest a gold standard pollster who make their living out of accurately predicting election results would not have taken account of this gigantic elephant?
It seems pretty clear that whatever they try the stink that is Brexit will hang around the Tory Party's neck for years to come and however many times they change their leader or wash themselves it wont go away
Simply, Lab will pick up 20-25 in Scotland, and a little more than 100 in England and Wales.
Now, this is far from nailed on, but one only has to look at 2005 to see how hammered the Conservatives can be, when the anti-Tory vote is well organised.
The Conservative Party was 20% ahead of Labour one month out from the 2017 GE, and look what happened.
Everything vaguely risky is going to be announced up front so the story or mitigation is covered early.
Heck we’ve already seen that with vat on private schools. Can’t afford to keep your child there - switch to a budget food brand - well done stupid Tory MPs not knowing when to keep your mouth shut.
Tactical voting might move the dial a bit more, though OTOH it doesn't do to overestimate the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour administration. I might begin to believe that the majority is on if Labour offers an appealing alternative vision of its own, rather than relying on being "Not Tories" and doing as little as possible to upset the minted codger vote. There have been a few encouraging noises about confronting the Nimbies this week, but whether this translates into workable policy remains to be seen.
I favour wafer thin Labour majority rather than coalition, (if indeed tory defeat is what is going to happen, based on current polling) as Labour could and would be blamed for everything and there would be some/several "bastards" (cf John Major's govt of 92 )that could make life very difficult for Starmer.
If you know you can easily become a multimillionaire for virtually no effort once out if office, it’s very much in your interest to make conditions convenient for the rich.
Labour are almost sure to win the next GE, but governments always recover ground, as polling day approaches.
The Conservatives in 1997 recovered 6% from their low point, and Labour in 2010 recovered 9%.
Mr. Root, if we do end up with a coalition it'll be interesting to see if the Lib Dems prioritise a referendum on returning to the EU or PR for General Elections. It will probably be the latter but that may make the former less likely to occur.
Be careful what you wish for.
The bigger problem for Rishi is actually getting the Tory vote to show up.
If both happen, he's in real trouble.
One is the extent to which opposition voters are in a Get Them Out mood. If the recent locals are any guide, LLG are highly GTO, and events like the NatCon conference are only going to strengthen that feeling.
The other is who will turn up on the day. It seems pretty likely that left-inclined voters will cross minefields to vote (no Suella, that's not a suggestion) whereas a lot of conservative-inclined voters will be washing their hair that day. Again, matches what we saw earlier this month. But jolly hard for pollsters to pick up, because people tend to exaggerate their likelihood to vote.
I'm expecting the key swings, as in '97, to be sofa to Labour and Conservative to sofa.
DeSantis’s USP is no longer particularly convincing; and without that, his attraction as a candidate is far from obvious.
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Personally I prefer a collation with a moderating party so that a party that governs in a minority is not dependent upon the 'bastards'. Similarly a huge majority results in government with arrogance which is not desirable.
Monopoly utilities ought not be run by foreign entities with zero interest in the welfare of their customers, interested in only extracting as much money from the U.K. as they can.
Revealed: warning to ministers over privatised water kept secret since 2002
Author calls for disclosure of his report that ‘shows why private equity dominance in England has proved so disastrous’
The latest proposal to load them with more debt which will explicitly be the responsibility of customers to pay for (rather than just effectively, as is currently the case) is a sick joke.
'Ministers were warned about the dangers of private equity taking over the water industry in a briefing that has been kept secret for 20 years, the Guardian can reveal.
The report being withheld from publication predicted the state of the privatised water industry today, and warned against private equity being allowed to move into water firms.
It was prepared for the Competition Commission (now the Competition and Markets Authority, CMA) in 2002 and has never been published in full. It should have been released under the 20-year rule last summer, but despite repeated attempts to have it published it is being kept secret.
Today, as private equity dominates ownership of the water sector in England, bringing with it high levels of debt and underinvestment leading to sewage pollution, water shortages and leaks, the author of the report has called for full disclosure of his warning two decades ago."
People find the current government venal, embarrassing and shit, and suspect Starmer's government will be the same - but it's a necessary change nonetheless.
Like, err, doing something Conservative in office, and pledging to do more of it in future.
At GE 2019, the Brexit Party achieved 2.0% of the UK vote share despite standing down in all 317 Conservative held seats and contesting only 275 seats. Had they stood in all GB seats, they could have expected to have received around 4.5%. Furthermore that showing in mainly Labour held seats came despite a lot of pressure to vote Conservative to "get Brexit done".
This time Tice's stated intention is to stand in every GB seat. There are going to be no tactical deals with the Tories, and no tactical squeeze to deliver Brexit. They are a reservoir for discontented Conservatives and there are a great deal of those around. So I expect Reform to at least match their average vote per seat in 2019 which means them getting at least 4% overall again.
There’s also the geography - while the Tories did reasonably well in parts of the Midlands, their results in the southern Home Counties were pretty bad by any historical standard.
I was in my original home town of Sevenoaks yesterday, and happened to notice from the Town Council noticeboard that fifteen of the sixteen town councillors just elected are LibDems, with just one remaining Tory. OK, it’s just a town council, but when I was growing up there anyone but the Tories would struggle to get anyone elected to anything.
Back in 1995, the Conservatives finished 11% behind Labour in Hertsmere. This time, they were 9% ahead (but still lost overall control).
I don't think Reform has anything like the infrastructure to stand so many candidates.
Nor dd he demur over being one of the architects of Brexit which has cost 4% of GDP and is also ongoing. The figure now in common currency is at least £33 billion a year
A grand total of £73 billion
........I'd imagine the country is bloody furious
"Water companies are struggling to hold their finances in order as interest rates rise on the huge debts they have taken on to pay dividends, according to a leading economist.
Dieter Helm, a professor of economic policy at the University of Oxford and an adviser to governments, said there were worrying signs from water companies about their financial stability as the economic crisis pushes up interest rates.
At privatisation in 1989, the nine English water companies were debt free. Between 1991 and 2019 they took on £52bn of debt, according to analysis. By last year debt had risen to £56.2bn, with Ofwat warning of concerns about the financial resilience of the sector."
In the history of elections, I'm struggling to find an example of an appealing alternative. Mostly, oppositions win by shutting up, and letting the government of the day implode.
And let's talk Scotland.
In 2015, the SNP got 50% of the vote; in 2017 just 37%; then they bounced back to 45% in 2019.
Are you really saying the 2017 voteshare is implausible?
You borrow a lot of money to buy a monopoly utility.
The regulator says you’re allowed to make ‘reasonable’ profits - but that, of course, is after the costs of servicing the debt. So captive customers pay for your investment and your profits.
Pretty well a one way bet for private equity, so long as they keep governments onside.
And as noted, the borrowing can also be done after you’ve bought the company.
Once you’ve extracted enough money, it doesn’t even matter if the business fails.
The supposed incentives, which are the positive side of a free market system, simply don’t apply.
How can you pay dividends from debt? They are supposed to be the distributed profits of a venture.
I think you mean Attlee's 'Now win the peace.' He was in opposition although he had been in government two months before.
The long period of ultra low interest rates would have been a fantastic opportunity for government to borrow to fund large infrastructure projects.
That largely didn’t happen.
It was also a fantastic opportunity for private equity, as the carrying cost of debt was so low. They took full advantage of the opportunity.
Water companies are just one example of how debt has been used to extract value.
There’s really zero defence for that particular set of privatisations and how they has been dealt with by government and regulators for the last three decades.
The polls are indeed Nowcasts rather than Forecasts and who knows what events will turn up.
I'm expecting that another 18 months of Sensible Sunak will enable many loyal Conservatives to forget about the terrors of Truss and embarrassment of Boris and they will vote as usual for the only Party they perceive as capable of giving them safe, secure Government, devoid as far as possible of Socialism and the like.
In short, there will be swingback, but not enough to prevent a spell in Opposition for the Blue Team.
My expectation is that the SNP will lose roughly half of their Westminster seats at the next election, mainly to Labour. It may well give Labour a majority.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/ Try Full ahead Backwards as a good sample.
It utterly destroys the ‘safe, secure’ argument - and is a critique which need not be socialist at all.
Denmark and Portugal decided to join other countries ready to train Ukrainian pilots on American F-16 fighter jets and work to ensure that Ukraine receives such aircraft. Denmark was announced by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and Portugal by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Come on Nigel, I know it's early but .....
I think with interest rates at 4.5% they will still be ok but if interest rates went much higher the whole financial model would have been in serious trouble. Thankfully they probably won't. 5% tops, maybe a peak of 4.75.
We can wait a bit longer
It is the Union that is catastrophic for Wales. We can do better.
But it’s going to be more of a struggle than is usual to sell that pitch. The Tories could be battling anger along with indifference this time around.
And that's before we get to 3% of the UK's debt going to Wales.
On Malta: they wanted to join the UK but ultimately negotiations broke down, I think because changing circumstances made it less attractive for either us or both sides. They never left the UK, they left the Empire.
On Singapore: this was the only country, to my knowledge, unwillingly kicked out by its former nation (Indonesia... I think). It never left the UK, but the Empire.
Ozempic doesn't just suppress your appetite.
I talked to patients who took the drug to lose weight— only to also effortlessly stop biting their nails, compulsively shopping, drinking alcohol, and so on.
But at a certain point public perception can just snap in frustration about how crap things seem. We've reached that point.
So even though we also don't like the overly gloomy, efforts to tell us actually things are great or in safe hands just makes us get mad or scoff.
So that's nearly £55bn extra, each and every year.
Debt levels, growth rates and demographics just dwarf anything else you can do with tax and public investment decisions.
It explains why Truss rolled the dice (badly) and why so many Western governments focus on inflation and debt, and get tempted by mass immigration.
But from an investment point of view the water companies are just a guaranteed flow of income coming from water bills. Yes, yes, there is this pesky and occasionally embarrassing drainage problem but essentially their value is what it would cost to get that income flow from an alternative source. When interest rates were 0.1% their value was sky high because it would have taken a hell of a lot of gilts to generate that income. Now, it is somewhat less but still positive. It takes real incompetence to make a mess of a business like that.
CON and (a small number of) SNP can sit together on the opposition benches ...
You'd have to pay for all the infrastructure of an independent state, put up barriers to England, and get no more Westminster subsidies. The Welsh economy would completely collapse.
Think of the challenges Brexit has posed and multiple by a factor of a hundred.
There’s no prefect solution starting from here, but there can be some mitigation.
A number of forensic accountants and greater powers for the regulator might be a worthwhile investment .
Looks as though Unionism is slowly slipping in N. Ireland. So far the gains are by SF (although some are from the SDLP) and Alliance, and the losses by UUP.
What private equity did was entirely deliberate. The health of the business is very much secondary to the amount of cash extracted.
Oh, and ask 'where's the counteroffensive, huh?'
Trebles all around.
Meanwhile if you subtract the 11% of 2019 Tories voting Labour and the 5% voting LD that leaves the Sunak Tories on about 36% from the 43% the Johnson Tories got in 2019. So it could still be close if Sunak squeezes DKs and RefUK voters back to the Conservatives even with no swingback from switchers from Tory to Labour and LD
Schools bewildered by AI advances, say head teachers
I have to admit the new one has made me a little more irritable/argumentative but I've been tidying up the flat and getting more done. Some drugs 'work' by zombifying you. That might be necessary in some cases but can also be a problem in others.
What makes you think that you would do better? What are the issues that you think face Wales, and how will independence improve those issues?
Anyway, I hope you have a pleasant day - the weather looks like it's going to be nice in Swansea.
As for Swansea, why would I care about a few Welsh nationalists with an anti English agenda going on a march in Swansea? Just see this tweet to see the type of anti English 2nd homer hatred and blood and soil nationalism of the Welsh Nationalist movement which in my view is even worse than Scottish nationalism and indeed SF now. https://twitter.com/yescymruruthin/status/1659655703559020574?s=20
Indeed given the main nationalist party in Wales Plaid is ripping itself apart over misogyny and harassment allegations and its leader has had to step down and not one poll has independence anyway near 50%+ in Wales, despite Brexit and the fact 47% of Welsh voters voted Remain I am not bothered at all.
For the country there is one priority only - a non Tory government. Tories will be back. but they need a time to work out from what real principles they seek to run the country. We have no idea at the moment. Moment by moment pragmatism cannot take you through 13 years and three+ major critical events in UK and world.
The Tories cannot run the country with fewer than about 315 seats, 50 fewer than 2019. The polling is on track at least for that.
IMHO betting wise, most of the 55% of voters currently lost won't return this time, though most will return later.
Reform will do less well than polling. (Who are they? No-one has heard of them). 'Stay at home' will do well with usually Tory voters, as will the LDs.
The better the Tories do, the sooner they will be back. A Lab/LD/SNP government would not be pretty. Tories can't win in 2024, but they could 24 months later.
Labour cannot but disappoint anyway. There's no cash, and none of our problems need less than a decade to fix.
On balance they’re probably a very good thing - but it’s likely far healthier (though more effort) if you can manage without them.
I take him for a modern American business school graduate. Maybe we could do with a bit of that given the state of British corporate life! He's letting us - the shareholders/employees? - know what his plans are for the year so we have a sense of his priorities and that he is focused on practical concerns. I was less cynical than some about him setting targets that ought to be easy bars to clear.