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We seem to be heading for the most boring White House race ever – politicalbetting.com
We seem to be heading for the most boring White House race ever – politicalbetting.com
Next year’s White Race will be the sixth such contest since PB was established in March 2004 and, indeed, it was the prevailing narrative that caused me to launch the site. Then Howard Dean was seen as a sure-fire favourite for the Dem nomination which I thought was rubbish and I had made a name for myself on the Betfair forums by setting out this view.
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I find it difficult to believe that the US is actually considering electing Trump again. It defies logic.
All shot down.
Why these defence systems weren't put in place across Ukraine many months ago is a question that needs asking.
Trump still looks favourite for the GOP nomination again but any more court cases judgements against him and it may end up DeSantis v Pence for the nomination
Yet they love him evermore rather than support someone who might get something done as President.
Such a shame that Biden has put his own interests above what’s best for the country and the rest of the world .
He could deliver a Trump presidency .
I’m actually going to seek out the coldest possible Stella beer in Alexandria (where I am headed now through insane Cairo traffic) just in honour of that brilliant moment in that resonant movie
Last night’s sunset in the Sahara
Yes, I agree that the primaries this time look likely to be thoroughly preordained, leading to the first full re-run since that 1956 contest, and making Trump the first person since Nixon to fight 3 elections on a main ticket and the first since Cleveland to do so having been ejected from the White House (not counting T Roosevelt, who ran as a third-party candidate in 1912 but finished second).
However, the race itself is not remotely boring because (1) it will be close, and (2) the outcome matters like none since, perhaps, 1860. The future of America is at stake as, in no small way, is that of the wider world. If Trump wins again, it may be the last democratic election the US holds for some time. His willingness to subvert process has always been there but has been strengthened since 2020, as, I expect, has his understanding of how to do it. Plus, vengeance is a major motivation for him now, as is protection from legal difficulties, both of which will impel him to make the DoJ his private, self-serving, agency. Government organisations tend to be like big animals - control the head well enough and the rest of it will follow, whatever the notional latent strength.
In their desperation, some Americans will turn to the only available alternative. Trump
man
He's too incompetent to carry out much sustained policy, but he's a threat to political, institutional and electoral systems, and so in the end to democratic legitimacy.
For context, many high-speed trains operate at over 200 MPH. HS2's line is being engineered for 400 km/h, although the initial trains are being made for a service speed of 330 km/h. Therefore Egypt's new line isn't particularly 'high speed'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_Egypt
As far as I can tell, the 'high-speed' train you are wetting yourself over goes at 160 km/h (100 MPH). Not exactly that speedy...
https://egyptindependent.com/third-talgo-train-to-start-operating-thursday-on-cairo-alexandria-line/
The fact it speeds sleekly through the Nile Delta (insanely populous) and exceeds 100mph is phenomenal. Egypt is POOR
Meanwhile HS2 is scheduled to begin operation from a small shed near Acton in the early 2040s. By then there will probably be a high speed train from Cairo to Cape Town
Which system would you prefer to live under? I know which I would prefer.
Besides, it's good to see someone who cried out for Brexit so routinely dissing the UK from a position of utter ignroance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vP5e-3Q-jZ8
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Boraq
Basically every country I go to now has a better high speed network - or is building one that will open soon - compared to the UK
Does HS2 still reach as far as Brum these days or does it now stop at Aylesbury?
Getting western military establishments to part with current systems has clearly been an arduous process.
It is only the Brum to London bit that achieves this, so clearly the rest of HS2 doesn't matter when it comes to fulfilling its primary objective and can be cut.
As for Northern Poorhouse Rail, the nickname is spot-on.
Likewise Heathrow is now a pretty seductive airport - one of the best in the western world - after being a right old mess for yonks
We have the ability. We seem to have some intention tremor when it comes to execution
Projected influx of workers and students next year is at odds with Conservative pledge to cut numbers, says Home Office"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/15/ministers-warned-million-more-migrants-britain-election/
I only say Stella because that is the national beer in Egypt. And not a bad beer for a country that often shuns alcohol
I still think it quite likely he won't be.
Have you ever seen Ceaucescu’s “palace” in Bucharest? I have. Somehow it manages to express the hideous mediocre incompetent evil of the regime in the form of grotesque pilasters
It is a contender for worst building in the world. Even its sheer size is numbingly unimpressive
Execution! Did someone mention execution? Suella did you hear that?
I despise NIMBYs and our sclerotic planning system, but I would compare us against the best of the developed world. Look at rail systems in nations like Japan, which is a democratic, developed and wealthy nation if that's what you're into.
Don't drag us down to third world levels. As much as I deplore our planning system, I'd take NIMBYism over dictatorship any day.
And the freeways are sometimes majestic. The road from Denver to Salt Lake City through the Rockies is, in places, sublime
And yet now they struggle - like us
So we end up here.
But I am more convinced than ever that we need some form of political reform that removes the ability of outright vengance from constituents. Perhaps a form of AV? TSE could do a thread on it....
Whoever the Republicans end up with will be a considerably more alarming prospect than was Adlai, though. Note the latter got the nomination as Truman's VP was considered, at 74, to be too old.
BR has 16,000 km of track. Egypt has 100 million people.
For its space and population Egypt's system is tiny. And I don't suppose NIMBYS get much say when building new stuff. The Chinese are pouring money into Africa.
Our infrastructure is gigantic and of ancient origin.
Any comparison to the UK is completely ridiculous.
All the other possibilities (between them running at a 100% chance) seem to me to be, if I may quote Wodehouse, 'fraught with considerable interest' for the USA, for punters and the the future of the world. So I am reluctant to say there isn't much to see.
We just need to be bold. We need our politicians to be bold. We could be a great nation, a benefit to the wider world and great neighbours for an independent Scotland and the EU. We could feed ourselves, head towards a renewable green self sufficiency in energy. Instead, we just prefer boring familiarity, pissing and whining about each other and the rest of the world. Nimbyism and tribalism stifling us.
We'll never turn things around while we have such small minded, self serving politicians, and we keep voting for them.
Yup, it's a pie in the sky, trippy dream, but it helps me get through the day!
There is something seriously wrong with how we do civil engineering projects in the UK and not much of that is due to NIMBYs.
- Britain (well, England) is full. Every inch is valued. Every square foot has its own preservation society. Every field is of historical importance. All our countryside is highly productive and highly loved. There's nowhere we can put anything without anyone minding. This isn't anyone's fault; this is just a peculiar feature of Britain. Its loveliness and fecundity are part of why it is so densely populated.
- It's part of human nature that we value losses higher than gains. Those facing the loss of a view fight harder than those who might benefit from more capacity on the railways.
- We have a highly adversarial system; so much public or quasi-public money is spent on parts of the public sector fighting other parts of the public sector, when arguably that money might better be fought on designing a better thing in the first place, or even on building the thing.
Some of these factors are linked.
Its a pleasant way to kill time while awaiting the flight. If you don't want to buy something, nobody puts a gun to your head to make you - they couldn't get that past security and this isn't America.
While using a rule book that is very much anti development because if a profit isn't immediately identifible it gets binned.
Which is why none of Leeds / Manchester / Birmingham have metro / underground lines and the rest of the world does.
and Metro lines are the investment that triggers real growth in a town. It may not show up on a spreadsheet but you can see it in every single town that has then.
Heck just look at how rapdily Copenhagen is expanding once they add the metro line to the area. It was how the Metropolitan line was built after all.
Health? Yes, possibly. He's obese, old and has a bad diet. But it's also less than a year to the primaries.
Legal trouble? Maybe. But look at what he's come through. It'll need a criminal conviction that jails him - and where's that coming from?
Political opponent? Not without the above. DeSantis won't take him on directly and has his own weaknesses. And there's no-one else who could play the primary base.
This last year has proven that Trump still owns the GOP. Any analysis needs to start from that point.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/15/why-enjoy-the-sunshine-when-you-could-torment-yourself-in-a-shopping-centre
is what is wrong with shopping malls
and
rivals Ceausescu's palace for worst building competition.
What marks Heathrow out is the brilliant access to a world city. 15-20 minutes by train
Manchester doesn't have a metro in the traditional sense of single purpose tracks.
Edit to add a lovely flowchart to prove my point.
I'm slightly surprised Mike hasn't had at least a sniff at a few of them.
Sad in both cases.
I think it quite possible that a number of ongoing, concurrent cases might make it very hard for him to be the nominee.
He hasn't been through plenty of law courts, but he hasn't been through the kind of legal scrutiny he's likely to face over the next twelve months.