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LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,927
    84% Lib Dem vote in the Canterbury ward where my vineyard is.

    Confirming the widely held view that the Yellow party wins in places where grapes are grown.

    Just look at the French presidential maps. Macron yellow tones strung all along the slopes of the cote d’or and Loire valley while le penners sit muttering in the industrial valleys and républicains command the cattle farming uplands.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,988
    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    moonshine said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

    I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

    Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

    I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

    They can have a leadership challenge. But not sure what that achieves - it’ll just ramp up pressure to call a general election
    There won’t be a challenge until polling shows another Conservative MP getting noticeably more votes as potential leader than Sunak.

    There is no such person, at the moment.
    Exactly the Tories are heading for defeat as much as Labour was in
    2010 or the Tories were in 1997 (if fractionally less). Changing the leader and PM AGAIN will make sod all difference, indeed if anything Rishi polls slightly better than his party.

    Better to just face the music and then rebuild under a new leader in Opposition
    It'll be fascinating and frightening in equal measure to see how much further to the Right the wounded and embittered remnants of the Conservative Party will drift should they lose.
    It would be lush to have a credible right wing party to vote for. I don’t ask for much, just arresting the crazy rise in the fiscal transfer from the working to the non working, and reducing the size of the state and immigration from what are more or less all time highs. If they have time perhaps they’d like to invest a bit more in defence and economic strategic resilience (ENERGY), given the uncomfortably high prospects of the West entering a trade war or even hot war with China this decade.

    Forget mere voting, I’d go and campaign for that Party. As it is, I shall remain apathetic about the shades of socialist blancmange on offer to voters
    It often puzzles me why (somewhat locally) the SCons don't rebrand themselves as a more 1950's patriarchal, bank-manager-friendly, small-business-friendly, 'small c' version of themselves. They'd mop up a decent chunk of the vote I think.

    But then I remember they are utterly useless and it becomes self-explanatory.
    I think they rather lost any claim to bank-managerial prudence when claiming we should subordinate ourselves to Mr Johnson, Ms. Truss, etc. as per voted for by rUk but not us Scots.

    I suppose also going all out for the Rangers fans - the Queen's XI stuff - was seen as too peripheral.

    Haven't seen any references to the King's XI yet.
    That's what puzzles me though. I imagine (and I have no real evidence for this other than anecdotes) that there's a fair amount of 'conservative' votes out there in Alba-land, Forbes-SNP-land, small business-land, etc. And instead they nail themselves to the mast of the HMS Truss, etc.

    Feels like a very obvious 'gap in the market' that they could have stepped comfortably into.

    But then I picture D.Ross stood in a referee costume showing a red card to some cardboard cut-outs of Sturgeon, Salmond etc and think "oh."
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,466
    edited May 2023
    ping said:

    Roger said:

    Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

    Are we allowed to know the contents?
    "FIRSTNAME,

    I know the results are disappointing. I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities.


    But I want to be totally honest with you, FIRSTNAME.


    These local elections are a massive wake-up call. If you want to stop Keir Starmer, then we have to come together now.

    We don’t have any time to waste. So I’m urgently asking you to chip in whatever you can today.

    For too many people, the local election results mean they’re faced with Labour councillors who want to raise tax and cut local services.


    It’s disappointing in so many ways.


    But that’s exactly why I don’t want to see the same thing happen at next year’s general election.


    I don’t want to see Keir Starmer reopen Brexit.


    I don’t want to see Angela Rayner enthusiastically give in to every union demand.


    I don’t want to see David Lammy with the power to keep foreign criminals in the country.


    FIRSTNAME, I don’t want the same people who tried to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister deciding what Britain’s future should look like.


    If you don’t want to see that either, then I’m asking you to make an urgent donation today."

    DONATE HERE button
    This kind of strategy is directly imported from the US.

    It’s really shitty and I hope it backfires on every party, wherever they are - who uses it.

    The once great Conservative Party has lost its moral compass.
    Its certainly bizarre.

    "I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities"

    Does Greg imagine that in the new Labour wards struggle sessions will begin a dawn?
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,035
    What an absolute pasting.

    I take no pleasure in others’ misfortune (on the whole, anyway) but today’s been a great day for the Greens. Not just for results, but also as a vindication for focusing on actual environmental issues. And this current Conservative government really deserved to get walloped.

    Though tbf nothing could make me laugh more than the comment upthread about Spaffer being the ‘moral leader of Europe’.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    Jonathan said:

    Tories at a crossroads…

    Are they heading to the right or to the centre or back to Boris. Carry on as they are and defeat beckons.

    What will they do?

    Carry on and face a (respectable) defeat. The die is cast now...
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,444
    Jonathan said:

    Tories at a crossroads…

    Are they heading to the right or to the centre or back to Boris. Carry on as they are and defeat beckons.

    What will they do?

    Boris. This election is the perfect storm for Sunak. Demolished in all parts of the country. Red Wall. Blue Wall. Leave. Remain.

    Barring a black swan, they are going to lose next year and that means an awful lot of redundant Tory MPs, and an awful lot of associations facing losing their council and their MP.

    So why not force the black swan. And there is nothing blacker than Bringing Back Boris. If not him, then whom?
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,081
    ohnotnow said:

    Carnyx said:

    ohnotnow said:

    moonshine said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

    I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

    Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

    I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

    They can have a leadership challenge. But not sure what that achieves - it’ll just ramp up pressure to call a general election
    There won’t be a challenge until polling shows another Conservative MP getting noticeably more votes as potential leader than Sunak.

    There is no such person, at the moment.
    Exactly the Tories are heading for defeat as much as Labour was in
    2010 or the Tories were in 1997 (if fractionally less). Changing the leader and PM AGAIN will make sod all difference, indeed if anything Rishi polls slightly better than his party.

    Better to just face the music and then rebuild under a new leader in Opposition
    It'll be fascinating and frightening in equal measure to see how much further to the Right the wounded and embittered remnants of the Conservative Party will drift should they lose.
    It would be lush to have a credible right wing party to vote for. I don’t ask for much, just arresting the crazy rise in the fiscal transfer from the working to the non working, and reducing the size of the state and immigration from what are more or less all time highs. If they have time perhaps they’d like to invest a bit more in defence and economic strategic resilience (ENERGY), given the uncomfortably high prospects of the West entering a trade war or even hot war with China this decade.

    Forget mere voting, I’d go and campaign for that Party. As it is, I shall remain apathetic about the shades of socialist blancmange on offer to voters
    It often puzzles me why (somewhat locally) the SCons don't rebrand themselves as a more 1950's patriarchal, bank-manager-friendly, small-business-friendly, 'small c' version of themselves. They'd mop up a decent chunk of the vote I think.

    But then I remember they are utterly useless and it becomes self-explanatory.
    I think they rather lost any claim to bank-managerial prudence when claiming we should subordinate ourselves to Mr Johnson, Ms. Truss, etc. as per voted for by rUk but not us Scots.

    I suppose also going all out for the Rangers fans - the Queen's XI stuff - was seen as too peripheral.

    Haven't seen any references to the King's XI yet.
    That's what puzzles me though. I imagine (and I have no real evidence for this other than anecdotes) that there's a fair amount of 'conservative' votes out there in Alba-land, Forbes-SNP-land, small business-land, etc. And instead they nail themselves to the mast of the HMS Truss, etc.

    Feels like a very obvious 'gap in the market' that they could have stepped comfortably into.

    But then I picture D.Ross stood in a referee costume showing a red card to some cardboard cut-outs of Sturgeon, Salmond etc and think "oh."
    Perhaps also to the point, Mr Ross and the SCUP haven't shown themselves very consistent in their subordination to their London lords and masters/mistresses. Notably, their going to and fro over Mr Johnson, etc. What's a poor voter to do?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,843
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It would be interesting to compare this year's local elections with 1995. You'd probably find the Tories have done worse in upmarket areas this year but slightly better in downmarket ones. Walsall and Dudley for example.

    The Conservatives did (far) worse almost everywhere in 1995. Take Hertsmere, 8 seats out of 39, compared to 16 now. The Conservatives held 8 councils, compared to 30 something this time around.
    On the other hand, the Conservatives did far better in 1991.

    So, expecting a result between 1992 and 1997 seems a reasonable bet :smile:
    Yup
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,035
    stodge said:

    I think @NickPalmer has been re-elected in Godalming. He's back with an LD and a Green - the Waverley result has the LDs on 22, the Farnham Residents on 13 and the Conservatives down eight to just ten seats.

    Sounds like he’s part of a progressive trio there 🙂
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,444
    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1654573856990846976

    In recent years, it has - bizarrely - crossed the road to pick up a fight with large groups of the electorate (Remainers, civil servants, people who work from home). It is now paying the price for that. Tactical voting could significantly reduce the swing Labour needs to win 9/9
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,927

    Jonathan said:

    Tories at a crossroads…

    Are they heading to the right or to the centre or back to Boris. Carry on as they are and defeat beckons.

    What will they do?

    Boris. This election is the perfect storm for Sunak. Demolished in all parts of the country. Red Wall. Blue Wall. Leave. Remain.

    Barring a black swan, they are going to lose next year and that means an awful lot of redundant Tory MPs, and an awful lot of associations facing losing their council and their MP.

    So why not force the black swan. And there is nothing blacker than Bringing Back Boris. If not him, then whom?
    I’ve been a bit disappointed at the lack of Tory civil war so far to be honest. They seem to be annoyingly standing by their man.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,715
    Conservative fundraising letter posted on PB is pretty typical of the genre, if not exactly one of the better (in fundraising if no other) sense.

    Interesting that Toxic Yard Gnome (aka Jeremy Corbyn) is still prime Tory donor bait.

    Reminds me of how Democratic fundraising letters made a meal and more off of Newt Gingrich for decades. Heck, his name still pops up occasionally as GOP Boogie Man in such screeds.

    What this letter may have needed, was another page or two to pour a wee bit o' balm on the tormented Tory soul . . . before laying on Keir Fear in order to pick the tormented Tory pocket.
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,371
    The Tories on Ashford Council describe themselves as “Local Conservatives” I note. Are they all doing this? Is it to disassociate themselves from the “National Conservatives” or for some other reason?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,081
    Dialup said:

    https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1654573856990846976

    In recent years, it has - bizarrely - crossed the road to pick up a fight with large groups of the electorate (Remainers, civil servants, people who work from home). It is now paying the price for that. Tactical voting could significantly reduce the swing Labour needs to win 9/9

    Could add anyone paying NI as opposed to self-employed* and the pensioners.

    *Those who pay themselves in dividends rather than a salary.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,927

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    In a lot of the South I think water pollution has been a real galvanising force. Ignored by the government but extremely salient. Only the Lib Dems and Greens have bothered to make anything of it.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,872
    Arun, Bedford, New Forest and Redcar & Cleveland to go.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,081
    edited May 2023
    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    In a lot of the South I think water pollution has been a real galvanising force. Ignored by the government but extremely salient. Only the Lib Dems and Greens have bothered to make anything of it.
    Rivers and seas, both. Edit: and much of the former ends up being drunk, too.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,101

    Jonathan said:

    Tories at a crossroads…

    Are they heading to the right or to the centre or back to Boris. Carry on as they are and defeat beckons.

    What will they do?

    Boris. This election is the perfect storm for Sunak. Demolished in all parts of the country. Red Wall. Blue Wall. Leave. Remain.

    Barring a black swan, they are going to lose next year and that means an awful lot of redundant Tory MPs, and an awful lot of associations facing losing their council and their MP.

    So why not force the black swan. And there is nothing blacker than Bringing Back Boris. If not him, then whom?
    That really might finish them off for a generation.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,394
    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

    IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

    Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍
    I'm down in Somerset next week, looking forward to becoming DialupPubman!
    Yes Somerset is good. Lots of good pubs there. Enjoy it 👍
    Thanks mate, looking forward to getting a few days out of London, work has been rather full on of late so looking forward to the fresh air of the pub! :lol:
    I rather like the pubs in CrapPlace on the IoW - have you been there?
    To the IoW yes but not there. What beers have they got?
    Many fine beers. I'm interested, do you have friends on PB?
    I haven't met anyone on here in real life so I don't think I'd call them friends. I've got real life for that, this is more of an escape.
    Wow. That's astonishing - have you not been to the PB clubhouse - you know there's free beer there?
    I don't know what the PB clubhouse is I am afraid.
    Ok, well that's fine. Anything you want to add before you die?
    I once ran over a squirrel and drove off.
    Goodbye Dialup, I hope it's been worth it.
    Trolling is always spotted quickly
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,081

    Conservative fundraising letter posted on PB is pretty typical of the genre, if not exactly one of the better (in fundraising if no other) sense.

    Interesting that Toxic Yard Gnome (aka Jeremy Corbyn) is still prime Tory donor bait.

    Reminds me of how Democratic fundraising letters made a meal and more off of Newt Gingrich for decades. Heck, his name still pops up occasionally as GOP Boogie Man in such screeds.

    What this letter may have needed, was another page or two to pour a wee bit o' balm on the tormented Tory soul . . . before laying on Keir Fear in order to pick the tormented Tory pocket.

    They'll still be going on about Mr Corbyn for another 15 years at least, even if he is neither a MP nor in Labour. The Winter of Discontent and the inflation of the early 1970s was held out to me as a reason for not voting for Mr Blair in 1997!
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,733
    edited May 2023
    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    In a lot of the South I think water pollution has been a real galvanising force. Ignored by the government but extremely salient. Only the Lib Dems and Greens have bothered to make anything of it.
    It’s a perfect Lib Dem/Green issue/policy.

    It’s Clegg/tuition fees, all over again.

    “Do you want to tax people, to the tune of hundred billion quid, in order to stop 0.1% of our sewage going into rivers/the sea?”

    I don’t know the figures, but they can’t be far off.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,981
    Carnyx said:

    Tree kangaroos soon to invade Seattle (via Woodland Park Zoo).

    King Charles, please explain?!?

    They already have invaded PB. In the person of @bondegezou .
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/immersive-exhibit-with-tree-kangaroos-red-pandas-coming-to-seattle/

    I am glad to see this initiative in support of my cousins, the Matschie’s tree kangaroos.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,081

    Carnyx said:

    Tree kangaroos soon to invade Seattle (via Woodland Park Zoo).

    King Charles, please explain?!?

    They already have invaded PB. In the person of @bondegezou .
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/immersive-exhibit-with-tree-kangaroos-red-pandas-coming-to-seattle/

    I am glad to see this initiative in support of my cousins, the Matschie’s tree kangaroos.
    I remember being absolutely fascinated by the rock wallabies at Sydney Zoo and their ability to get ip an apparently vertical rock face - rubbery feet for a start. But different genera ...
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,394
    The chances of the Tories getting together to stop Labour is approximately 0pc. Just remember the "Bastards" in Majors 1992 Govt.....
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,135

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

    I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

    Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

    I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

    They can have a leadership challenge. But not sure what that achieves - it’ll just ramp up pressure to call a general election
    There won’t be a challenge until polling shows another Conservative MP getting noticeably more votes as potential leader than Sunak.

    There is no such person, at the moment.
    Exactly the Tories are heading for defeat as much as Labour was in
    2010 or the Tories were in 1997 (if fractionally less). Changing the leader and PM AGAIN will make sod all difference, indeed if anything Rishi polls slightly better than his party.

    Better to just face the music and then rebuild under a new leader in Opposition
    Agreed

    I don't want LAB to win and won't be voting for them but we could do worse than ending up with say 260 seats, rebuild and rediscover our focus and direction, and hopefully come back at the following GE.
    I don't think we'll be back for quite a long time.

    I'm not convinced we worked out what we were really for last time, and we had 13 years of Labour to do it too.
    The Conservative Party exists for the purposes of funnelling what's left of the nation's wealth upwards and into the pockets of the already well-off.

    There are still a lot of well-off people about - thus, the Conservative Party is a very long way from being a lost cause. Yes, the most likely outcome of the next election is that the Tories will end up in Opposition, but they'll be able to entertain realistic ambitions of a return to Government at the first attempt.

    Labour is terrified of taxing the assets of the wealthy, and without the extra money it can't do anything useful to help the poor, and risks being written off as pointless and useless by everyone.
    Err, no. That's a silly caricature like abolishing the NHS, or furthering the old boy network.

    It's more they didn't really know how to respond to the defeats of New Labour and the 1990s so decided to adopt its social policy and then small-state austerity whilst protecting pensioners with a big state. All tactical, defensive and nervous stuff - and no real bold leadership. Other wings kept fighting their corner too, and it's run through the mill that whole time.

    It's not hard: it's patriotism and economic prosperity, with a hard dose of pragmatism on top. But, they seem to forget that and have cleaved or stolen the wrong dogmas as a subs
    It's not a silly caricature at all. The whole of the last thirteen years has been, in essence, about protecting both the well-to-do elderly and their assets/legacies from the impact of the litany of disasters that has befallen us, whilst beating the absolute crap out of everybody and everything else. It's been socialism for the aged owners of big houses and their expectant heirs, and the icy blasts of the global free market for everybody else.

    The young are really, really suffering and all the Conservative Party has to offer is ever-higher taxes to fund old people's triple-locked pensions and their healthcare, and rampant Nimbyism which means that all those who can't call on fat gifts or inheritances to compensate for stratospheric property prices face spending their entire lives paying exorbitant rents and working until they drop down dead to survive. For most people who aren't already rich or supported by rich families, there is no hope of prosperity and security, and that's it.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,501
    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

    We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

    I think that is perfectly possible
    So do I
    You're an excellent poster of the right, very reliable and well informed, thanks for posting
    You wouldn't be correct horse battery by any chance. That poster sucked up to other posters....
    I am not. But you're the second poster today trying to dox me. Reported.
    That’s not doxxing.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,135
    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

    I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

    Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

    I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

    They can have a leadership challenge. But not sure what that achieves - it’ll just ramp up pressure to call a general election
    There won’t be a challenge until polling shows another Conservative MP getting noticeably more votes as potential leader than Sunak.

    There is no such person, at the moment.
    Exactly the Tories are heading for defeat as much as Labour was in
    2010 or the Tories were in 1997 (if fractionally less). Changing the leader and PM AGAIN will make sod all difference, indeed if anything Rishi polls slightly better than his party.

    Better to just face the music and then rebuild under a new leader in Opposition
    Agreed

    I don't want LAB to win and won't be voting for them but we could do worse than ending up with say 260 seats, rebuild and rediscover our focus and direction, and hopefully come back at the following GE.
    I don't think we'll be back for quite a long time.

    I'm not convinced we worked out what we were really for last time, and we had 13 years of Labour to do it too.
    The Conservative Party exists for the purposes of funnelling what's left of the nation's wealth upwards and into the pockets of the already well-off.

    There are still a lot of well-off people about - thus, the Conservative Party is a very long way from being a lost cause. Yes, the most likely outcome of the next election is that the Tories will end up in Opposition, but they'll be able to entertain realistic ambitions of a return to Government at the first attempt.

    Labour is terrified of taxing the assets of the wealthy, and without the extra money it can't do anything useful to help the poor, and risks being written off as pointless and useless by everyone.
    Do you genuinely believe that taxation is the solution to most problems rather than wealth creation?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,079
    Ghedebrav said:

    What an absolute pasting.

    I take no pleasure in others’ misfortune (on the whole, anyway) but today’s been a great day for the Greens. Not just for results, but also as a vindication for focusing on actual environmental issues. And this current Conservative government really deserved to get walloped.

    Though tbf nothing could make me laugh more than the comment upthread about Spaffer being the ‘moral leader of Europe’.

    Environmental issues is a bit much. Tractor country didn't vote for net zero.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,685

    Roger said:

    Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

    Are we allowed to know the contents?
    "FIRSTNAME,

    I know the results are disappointing. I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities.


    But I want to be totally honest with you, FIRSTNAME.


    These local elections are a massive wake-up call. If you want to stop Keir Starmer, then we have to come together now.

    We don’t have any time to waste. So I’m urgently asking you to chip in whatever you can today.

    For too many people, the local election results mean they’re faced with Labour councillors who want to raise tax and cut local services.


    It’s disappointing in so many ways.


    But that’s exactly why I don’t want to see the same thing happen at next year’s general election.


    I don’t want to see Keir Starmer reopen Brexit.


    I don’t want to see Angela Rayner enthusiastically give in to every union demand.


    I don’t want to see David Lammy with the power to keep foreign criminals in the country.


    FIRSTNAME, I don’t want the same people who tried to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister deciding what Britain’s future should look like.


    If you don’t want to see that either, then I’m asking you to make an urgent donation today."

    DONATE HERE button
    Such is the nature of modernity that it is quite possible this isn't a spoof.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    Still four slacker councils left to declare.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,981
    edited May 2023
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Tree kangaroos soon to invade Seattle (via Woodland Park Zoo).

    King Charles, please explain?!?

    They already have invaded PB. In the person of @bondegezou .
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/immersive-exhibit-with-tree-kangaroos-red-pandas-coming-to-seattle/

    I am glad to see this initiative in support of my cousins, the Matschie’s tree kangaroos.
    I remember being absolutely fascinated by the rock wallabies at Sydney Zoo and their ability to get ip an apparently vertical rock face - rubbery feet for a start. But different genera ...
    Very different creatures. Rock wallabies are perfectly adapted for the rocks, whereas us tree kangaroos are poorly adapted for climbing trees, but, hey, no-one else was doing it so we thought we'd have a go.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It would be interesting to compare this year's local elections with 1995. You'd probably find the Tories have done worse in upmarket areas this year but slightly better in downmarket ones. Walsall and Dudley for example.

    The Conservatives did (far) worse almost everywhere in 1995. Take Hertsmere, 8 seats out of 39, compared to 16 now. The Conservatives held 8 councils, compared to 30 something this time around.
    On the other hand, the Conservatives did far better in 1991.

    So, expecting a result between 1992 and 1997 seems a reasonable bet :smile:
    LAB largest party but just short or small LAB majority is where we're at.

    That's assuming CON don't try and do something desperate like bring back Boris and Liz. If they do... The BBC will be able to get the champagne in and party like it's 1997 lol... ;)
  • Options
    Andy_JS said:

    Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse:

    Paul Sidney RIVERS Liberal Democrats 1377 21.1% Elected
    Stephen Edward Dalton WILLIAMS Green Party Candidate 1280 19.6% Elected
    Nick PALMER Labour Party 1061 16.3% Elected
    ......................................................................................................................................................
    Steve COSSER The Conservative Party Candidate 984 15.1% Not elected
    Ed HOLLIDAY The Conservative Party Candidate 954 14.6% Not elected
    Daniel Ali HUSSEINI The Conservative Party Candidate 860 13.2% Not elected

    https://modgov.waverley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=432&RPID=17859260

    A better threeesome you could not wish for, I am sure.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,715
    DougSeal said:

    The Tories on Ashford Council describe themselves as “Local Conservatives” I note. Are they all doing this? Is it to disassociate themselves from the “National Conservatives” or for some other reason?

    In 1945, there was a reason that Winston Church and other Conservative & allied candidates, campaigned under the "National" label.

    https://www.iwm.org.uk/collections/item/object/29129
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,733
    edited May 2023
    ping said:

    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    In a lot of the South I think water pollution has been a real galvanising force. Ignored by the government but extremely salient. Only the Lib Dems and Greens have bothered to make anything of it.
    It’s a perfect Lib Dem/Green issue/policy.

    It’s Clegg/tuition fees, all over again.

    “Do you want to tax people, to the tune of hundred billion quid, in order to stop 0.1% of our sewage going into rivers/the sea?”

    I don’t know the figures, but they can’t be far off.
    A smart policy, perhaps for Starmer, would be “we’re going to force the water companies to replace x% of the sewage pipes, every single year until the problem is solved, without putting your water bills up by even a penny.”

    Maybe replace x% with Xthousand miles, for greater impact.
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,404
    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

    I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

    Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

    I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

    They can have a leadership challenge. But not sure what that achieves - it’ll just ramp up pressure to call a general election
    There won’t be a challenge until polling shows another Conservative MP getting noticeably more votes as potential leader than Sunak.

    There is no such person, at the moment.
    Exactly the Tories are heading for defeat as much as Labour was in
    2010 or the Tories were in 1997 (if fractionally less). Changing the leader and PM AGAIN will make sod all difference, indeed if anything Rishi polls slightly better than his party.

    Better to just face the music and then rebuild under a new leader in Opposition
    Agreed

    I don't want LAB to win and won't be voting for them but we could do worse than ending up with say 260 seats, rebuild and rediscover our focus and direction, and hopefully come back at the following GE.
    I don't think we'll be back for quite a long time.

    I'm not convinced we worked out what we were really for last time, and we had 13 years of Labour to do it too.
    The Conservative Party exists for the purposes of funnelling what's left of the nation's wealth upwards and into the pockets of the already well-off.

    There are still a lot of well-off people about - thus, the Conservative Party is a very long way from being a lost cause. Yes, the most likely outcome of the next election is that the Tories will end up in Opposition, but they'll be able to entertain realistic ambitions of a return to Government at the first attempt.

    Labour is terrified of taxing the assets of the wealthy, and without the extra money it can't do anything useful to help the poor, and risks being written off as pointless and useless by everyone.
    Do you genuinely believe that taxation is the solution to most problems rather than wealth creation?
    I think it requires both, surely.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,044

    ping said:

    Roger said:

    Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

    Are we allowed to know the contents?
    "FIRSTNAME,

    I know the results are disappointing. I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities.


    But I want to be totally honest with you, FIRSTNAME.


    These local elections are a massive wake-up call. If you want to stop Keir Starmer, then we have to come together now.

    We don’t have any time to waste. So I’m urgently asking you to chip in whatever you can today.

    For too many people, the local election results mean they’re faced with Labour councillors who want to raise tax and cut local services.


    It’s disappointing in so many ways.


    But that’s exactly why I don’t want to see the same thing happen at next year’s general election.


    I don’t want to see Keir Starmer reopen Brexit.


    I don’t want to see Angela Rayner enthusiastically give in to every union demand.


    I don’t want to see David Lammy with the power to keep foreign criminals in the country.


    FIRSTNAME, I don’t want the same people who tried to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister deciding what Britain’s future should look like.


    If you don’t want to see that either, then I’m asking you to make an urgent donation today."

    DONATE HERE button
    This kind of strategy is directly imported from the US.

    It’s really shitty and I hope it backfires on every party, wherever they are - who uses it.

    The once great Conservative Party has lost its moral compass.
    Its certainly bizarre.

    "I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities"

    Does Greg imagine that in the new Labour wards struggle sessions will begin a dawn?
    Indeed.
    And do Labour councils really WANT to cut services? They have to.
    But I severely doubt they want to.
    Indeed the line has always been that they want to be spendthrift.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

    We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

    I think that is perfectly possible
    So do I
    You're an excellent poster of the right, very reliable and well informed, thanks for posting
    You wouldn't be correct horse battery by any chance. That poster sucked up to other posters....
    I am not. But you're the second poster today trying to dox me. Reported.
    That’s not doxxing.
    It is totally unnecessary
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,662

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    And they're really not the sort of places to be mollified by Bringing Boris Back.

    Same story in Hampshire, where the Conservatives now run
    Test Valley
    Rushmoor (though they lost badly in the seats up last night)
    Havant (they got exactly half of the seats fought yesterday)
    Fareham (no elections yesterday because they have a two year cycle)
    and New Forest is touch and go.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,444
    dixiedean said:

    ping said:

    Roger said:

    Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

    Are we allowed to know the contents?
    "FIRSTNAME,

    I know the results are disappointing. I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities.


    But I want to be totally honest with you, FIRSTNAME.


    These local elections are a massive wake-up call. If you want to stop Keir Starmer, then we have to come together now.

    We don’t have any time to waste. So I’m urgently asking you to chip in whatever you can today.

    For too many people, the local election results mean they’re faced with Labour councillors who want to raise tax and cut local services.


    It’s disappointing in so many ways.


    But that’s exactly why I don’t want to see the same thing happen at next year’s general election.


    I don’t want to see Keir Starmer reopen Brexit.


    I don’t want to see Angela Rayner enthusiastically give in to every union demand.


    I don’t want to see David Lammy with the power to keep foreign criminals in the country.


    FIRSTNAME, I don’t want the same people who tried to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister deciding what Britain’s future should look like.


    If you don’t want to see that either, then I’m asking you to make an urgent donation today."

    DONATE HERE button
    This kind of strategy is directly imported from the US.

    It’s really shitty and I hope it backfires on every party, wherever they are - who uses it.

    The once great Conservative Party has lost its moral compass.
    Its certainly bizarre.

    "I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities"

    Does Greg imagine that in the new Labour wards struggle sessions will begin a dawn?
    Indeed.
    And do Labour councils really WANT to cut services? They have to.
    But I severely doubt they want to.
    Indeed the line has always been that they want to be spendthrift.
    Stockton looks to be possibly going Tory minority control - depends on which side the various independent groups choose. Whilst I despise much of the ruling Labour group on a personal level, what has ben happening in the town is genuinely good.

    The Tories have opposed every bit of the reinvention of the town centre, whilst proposing no plans of their own. So I wonder if they get control that they will cancel the planned riverside park and instead leave a large bulldozed area derelict because to do anything will be "too expensive"?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812

    These results are truly terrible for the Conservatives, no question.

    I only really voted for them out of duty. They do nothing for me.

    Why do you feel you have a duty to them? Genuine question.
    Loyalty and duty really matter to me as values.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    These results are truly terrible for the Conservatives, no question.

    I only really voted for them out of duty. They do nothing for me.

    Why do you feel you have a duty to them? Genuine question.
    Loyalty and duty really matter to me as values.
    I respect that.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,715

    Andy_JS said:

    Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse:

    Paul Sidney RIVERS Liberal Democrats 1377 21.1% Elected
    Stephen Edward Dalton WILLIAMS Green Party Candidate 1280 19.6% Elected
    Nick PALMER Labour Party 1061 16.3% Elected
    ......................................................................................................................................................
    Steve COSSER The Conservative Party Candidate 984 15.1% Not elected
    Ed HOLLIDAY The Conservative Party Candidate 954 14.6% Not elected
    Daniel Ali HUSSEINI The Conservative Party Candidate 860 13.2% Not elected

    https://modgov.waverley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=432&RPID=17859260

    A better threeesome you could not wish for, I am sure.
    Since this IS ostensibly a betting site, will wager NPxMP can think of an even-better example.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,872

    The chances of the Tories getting together to stop Labour is approximately 0pc. Just remember the "Bastards" in Majors 1992 Govt.....

    Is that the sound of you resigning the PB Tory whip and striking out as an independent poster?
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    If the local elections are a guide for the next general election, it looks like the surge in support for the Greens may deprive Starmer of an overall majority. A little bit of introspection’s needed from the Labour leadership, not bullish briefings about being ready for Number 10

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1654531684061020175

    This was the guy that ran Becky's leadership campaign.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,159
    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

    IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

    Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍
    I'm down in Somerset next week, looking forward to becoming DialupPubman!
    Yes Somerset is good. Lots of good pubs there. Enjoy it 👍
    Thanks mate, looking forward to getting a few days out of London, work has been rather full on of late so looking forward to the fresh air of the pub! :lol:
    I rather like the pubs in CrapPlace on the IoW - have you been there?
    To the IoW yes but not there. What beers have they got?
    Many fine beers. I'm interested, do you have friends on PB?
    I haven't met anyone on here in real life so I don't think I'd call them friends. I've got real life for that, this is more of an escape.
    Wow. That's astonishing - have you not been to the PB clubhouse - you know there's free beer there?
    I don't know what the PB clubhouse is I am afraid.
    Ok, well that's fine. Anything you want to add before you die?
    He needs to say what colour it is
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,035
    EPG said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    What an absolute pasting.

    I take no pleasure in others’ misfortune (on the whole, anyway) but today’s been a great day for the Greens. Not just for results, but also as a vindication for focusing on actual environmental issues. And this current Conservative government really deserved to get walloped.

    Though tbf nothing could make me laugh more than the comment upthread about Spaffer being the ‘moral leader of Europe’.

    Environmental issues is a bit much. Tractor country didn't vote for net zero.
    Environmental issues aren’t just net zero. But I meant rather than the culture war stuff that the Scottish Greens have become too focused on.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    Dialup said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse:

    Paul Sidney RIVERS Liberal Democrats 1377 21.1% Elected
    Stephen Edward Dalton WILLIAMS Green Party Candidate 1280 19.6% Elected
    Nick PALMER Labour Party 1061 16.3% Elected
    ......................................................................................................................................................
    Steve COSSER The Conservative Party Candidate 984 15.1% Not elected
    Ed HOLLIDAY The Conservative Party Candidate 954 14.6% Not elected
    Daniel Ali HUSSEINI The Conservative Party Candidate 860 13.2% Not elected

    https://modgov.waverley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=432&RPID=17859260

    The Tories are in big trouble in Guildford, Farnham, Haslemere, Winchester, Alton
    Not exactly "big trouble" on Alton town council. That's like saying your navy is in trouble because your paper boat has taken water on Frensham Pond.

    The Lib Dems have won most of Petersfield and Alton, as they have in the past before, whilst the Tories have held onto my ward and all the rural parishes; the Whitehill & Bordon Independents have sweeped those towns, and all of that combined has flipped East Hants to NOC.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    viewcode said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Omnium said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    My question for Londonpubman is, are you an actual publican somewhere in the Great Wen? Or just propping up the bar?

    IF answer is the former, do you offer a psephologist's discount? Or at least allow us to run a tab!

    Unfortunately I am simply the latter. Not at the moment but quite regularly 👍
    I'm down in Somerset next week, looking forward to becoming DialupPubman!
    Yes Somerset is good. Lots of good pubs there. Enjoy it 👍
    Thanks mate, looking forward to getting a few days out of London, work has been rather full on of late so looking forward to the fresh air of the pub! :lol:
    I rather like the pubs in CrapPlace on the IoW - have you been there?
    To the IoW yes but not there. What beers have they got?
    Many fine beers. I'm interested, do you have friends on PB?
    I haven't met anyone on here in real life so I don't think I'd call them friends. I've got real life for that, this is more of an escape.
    Wow. That's astonishing - have you not been to the PB clubhouse - you know there's free beer there?
    I don't know what the PB clubhouse is I am afraid.
    Ok, well that's fine. Anything you want to add before you die?
    He needs to say what colour it is
    Red
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,501
    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

    We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

    I think that is perfectly possible
    So do I
    You're an excellent poster of the right, very reliable and well informed, thanks for posting
    You wouldn't be correct horse battery by any chance. That poster sucked up to other posters....
    I am not. But you're the second poster today trying to dox me. Reported.
    That’s not doxxing.
    It is totally unnecessary
    It’s a bit of fun on PB. Old members sometimes reappear in new guises, not unlike the doctor in Dr Who. Often they are easy to spot by the style.
    Some of your posts are eerily similar to a departed member and people make connections (that may or may not be right).
    No point getting worked up about it. Enjoy the resurgent Labour Party - don’t be surprised if this is the high spot on the way to a much tougher GE than many think.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,394
    edited May 2023

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

    We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

    I think that is perfectly possible
    So do I
    You're an excellent poster of the right, very reliable and well informed, thanks for posting
    You wouldn't be correct horse battery by any chance. That poster sucked up to other posters....
    I am not. But you're the second poster today trying to dox me. Reported.
    That’s not doxxing.
    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

    We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

    I think that is perfectly possible
    So do I
    You're an excellent poster of the right, very reliable and well informed, thanks for posting
    You wouldn't be correct horse battery by any chance. That poster sucked up to other posters....
    I am not. But you're the second poster today trying to dox me. Reported.
    That’s not doxxing.
    It is totally unnecessary
    No it isn't. Your posting style is renarkably similar to CHB who tried chummy tactics ...
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Dialup said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse:

    Paul Sidney RIVERS Liberal Democrats 1377 21.1% Elected
    Stephen Edward Dalton WILLIAMS Green Party Candidate 1280 19.6% Elected
    Nick PALMER Labour Party 1061 16.3% Elected
    ......................................................................................................................................................
    Steve COSSER The Conservative Party Candidate 984 15.1% Not elected
    Ed HOLLIDAY The Conservative Party Candidate 954 14.6% Not elected
    Daniel Ali HUSSEINI The Conservative Party Candidate 860 13.2% Not elected

    https://modgov.waverley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=432&RPID=17859260

    The Tories are in big trouble in Guildford, Farnham, Haslemere, Winchester, Alton
    Not exactly "big trouble" on Alton town council. That's like saying your navy is in trouble because your paper boat has taken water on Frensham Pond.

    The Lib Dems have won most of Petersfield and Alton, as they have in the past before, whilst the Tories have held onto my ward and all the rural parishes; the Whitehill & Bordon Independents have sweeped those towns, and all of that combined has flipped East Hants to NOC.
    Damian Hinds is in trouble come the next election.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,135
    "A Derbyshire election contest was abandoned while counting was underway after one of the candidates died. Gillian Lemmon, aged 52, Conservative Party candidate in the Hilton ward on South Derbyshire District Council, died today (May 5) at around 12.45pm after sudden health difficulties.

    As a result, Ardip Sandhu, the council’s returning officer, made a decision to abandon the count entirely and to instead organise a full by-election for the three-councillor ward at a later date. If Ms Lemmon had died after the result was declared there would only have been a by-election for her seat, not all three"

    https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/local-news/dedicated-conservative-candidate-dies-counting-8418553
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,927
    ping said:

    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    In a lot of the South I think water pollution has been a real galvanising force. Ignored by the government but extremely salient. Only the Lib Dems and Greens have bothered to make anything of it.
    It’s a perfect Lib Dem/Green issue/policy.

    It’s Clegg/tuition fees, all over again.

    “Do you want to tax people, to the tune of hundred billion quid, in order to stop 0.1% of our sewage going into rivers/the sea?”

    I don’t know the figures, but they can’t be far off.
    LOL. Do we want water quality at around the EU average? Yes, we do.
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

    We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

    I think that is perfectly possible
    So do I
    You're an excellent poster of the right, very reliable and well informed, thanks for posting
    You wouldn't be correct horse battery by any chance. That poster sucked up to other posters....
    I am not. But you're the second poster today trying to dox me. Reported.
    That’s not doxxing.
    No it isn't. I am.just wondering if you used to.post under another identity. I have not revealed your identity. Why woukd I bother
    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    I don't think we're marching towards 1997.

    We're marching towards 2010 in reverse.

    I think that is perfectly possible
    So do I
    You're an excellent poster of the right, very reliable and well informed, thanks for posting
    You wouldn't be correct horse battery by any chance. That poster sucked up to other posters....
    I am not. But you're the second poster today trying to dox me. Reported.
    That’s not doxxing.
    It is totally unnecessary
    No it isn't. It's renarkably similar to CHB who tried chummy tactics ...
    You're a wonderful poster, it is such a pleasure to have you here with us, providing wit and insight at every turn.
  • Options

    These results are truly terrible for the Conservatives, no question.

    I only really voted for them out of duty. They do nothing for me.

    Why do you feel you have a duty to them? Genuine question.
    Loyalty and duty really matter to me as values.
    Sure, and that's fine, but doesn't really answer the question.

    It's all wonderful and admirable if you feel you have a duty to volunteer at the Royal British Legion because of all that they and their members have done over their lives, and then fulfil that duty.

    But why is it a duty to vote for a political party? Or buy a particular brand of chocolate bar or whatever? From whence does the sense of moral obligation arise?
  • Options
    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1654502460013318144

    The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivered takeaways to Conservative HQ on the morning after local elections
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,545
    There are wild wallabies in France, not far from Paris: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_kangaroo
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,135
    What can the Tories do to win back support they've lost?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812

    The chances of the Tories getting together to stop Labour is approximately 0pc. Just remember the "Bastards" in Majors 1992 Govt.....

    Correct, they'll enthusiastically fight and blame each other to make the defeat as bad as possible.

    And then do so for several years thereafter too.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,812
    Dialup said:

    Dialup said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse:

    Paul Sidney RIVERS Liberal Democrats 1377 21.1% Elected
    Stephen Edward Dalton WILLIAMS Green Party Candidate 1280 19.6% Elected
    Nick PALMER Labour Party 1061 16.3% Elected
    ......................................................................................................................................................
    Steve COSSER The Conservative Party Candidate 984 15.1% Not elected
    Ed HOLLIDAY The Conservative Party Candidate 954 14.6% Not elected
    Daniel Ali HUSSEINI The Conservative Party Candidate 860 13.2% Not elected

    https://modgov.waverley.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=432&RPID=17859260

    The Tories are in big trouble in Guildford, Farnham, Haslemere, Winchester, Alton
    Not exactly "big trouble" on Alton town council. That's like saying your navy is in trouble because your paper boat has taken water on Frensham Pond.

    The Lib Dems have won most of Petersfield and Alton, as they have in the past before, whilst the Tories have held onto my ward and all the rural parishes; the Whitehill & Bordon Independents have sweeped those towns, and all of that combined has flipped East Hants to NOC.
    Damian Hinds is in trouble come the next election.
    I don't think so.
  • Options
    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,803
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Roger said:

    Greg Hands has sent such a tone deaf email that has annoyed me and others.

    Are we allowed to know the contents?
    "FIRSTNAME,

    I know the results are disappointing. I know people are worried about what Labour councils will mean for their local communities.


    But I want to be totally honest with you, FIRSTNAME.


    These local elections are a massive wake-up call. If you want to stop Keir Starmer, then we have to come together now.

    We don’t have any time to waste. So I’m urgently asking you to chip in whatever you can today.

    For too many people, the local election results mean they’re faced with Labour councillors who want to raise tax and cut local services.


    It’s disappointing in so many ways.


    But that’s exactly why I don’t want to see the same thing happen at next year’s general election.


    I don’t want to see Keir Starmer reopen Brexit.


    I don’t want to see Angela Rayner enthusiastically give in to every union demand.


    I don’t want to see David Lammy with the power to keep foreign criminals in the country.


    FIRSTNAME, I don’t want the same people who tried to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister deciding what Britain’s future should look like.


    If you don’t want to see that either, then I’m asking you to make an urgent donation today."

    DONATE HERE button
    Blimey.
    What a tosser.
    I am not totally against the Conservative party and voted for them in the past, but I've observed some of their Councillors do some really unbelievable things over the years.

    - campaigning against a food bank because it would compete with local shops.
    - stopping the redevelopment of petrol stations in the middle of a city centre on the basis that they are essential community facilities.
    - walking around Council offices in the immediate aftermath of Brexit, gloating at random council staff that the leave vote will prevent all foreigners from coming to the UK.

    Where I live, for years the local Conservative party did nothing. They have literally no clue at all about what they would do if they took control of the Council despite being the main opposition. About 8 years ago they came up published an economic strategy which was about stopping all the money spent on 'the arts' and spending it instead on an economic strategy involving repairing the roads - something that they can't even do, as it is a County matter.

    I've generally had the view that Conservatives don't actually want to win local elections, they would prefer that labour run Council's take the blame for effects of central government (ie Conservative) underfunding.

    A good reason to vote for labour in the general election is that they may reform local government in general, the current situation is a mess.



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    Redcar and Cleveland have given up, will finish on Tuesday before the third recount in a ward.
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    Dialup said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1654502460013318144

    The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivered takeaways to Conservative HQ on the morning after local elections

    What a bastard, doing honest Deliveroo riders out of a job.
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    pingping Posts: 3,733
    edited May 2023
    TimS said:

    ping said:

    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    In a lot of the South I think water pollution has been a real galvanising force. Ignored by the government but extremely salient. Only the Lib Dems and Greens have bothered to make anything of it.
    It’s a perfect Lib Dem/Green issue/policy.

    It’s Clegg/tuition fees, all over again.

    “Do you want to tax people, to the tune of hundred billion quid, in order to stop 0.1% of our sewage going into rivers/the sea?”

    I don’t know the figures, but they can’t be far off.
    LOL. Do we want water quality at around the EU average? Yes, we do.
    Oooh. Starmer would love that for his leaflets: “we’re going FORCE the water companies to BEAT the EU average for water quality!” Or somesuch.

    If he can get it past Rachel Reeves, that kind of policy/spinning could be really electorally effective.

    We’re back to the basic problem, though. It’s fking expensive to sort out.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    Andy_JS said:

    "A Derbyshire election contest was abandoned while counting was underway after one of the candidates died. Gillian Lemmon, aged 52, Conservative Party candidate in the Hilton ward on South Derbyshire District Council, died today (May 5) at around 12.45pm after sudden health difficulties.

    As a result, Ardip Sandhu, the council’s returning officer, made a decision to abandon the count entirely and to instead organise a full by-election for the three-councillor ward at a later date. If Ms Lemmon had died after the result was declared there would only have been a by-election for her seat, not all three"

    https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/local-news/dedicated-conservative-candidate-dies-counting-8418553

    RIP Gillian.
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    Conservatives lose control of East Hampshire Council

    Find out the latest analysis and results

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1654582990431830017
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,135

    Andy_JS said:

    pigeon said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories and Sunak are in stepmom territory.

    I was the expecting the former but not the latter.

    Last week the Tories set expectations management at 1,000 seats lost which meant they were expecting 600-700 losses.

    I expect a leadership challenge this year now.

    They can have a leadership challenge. But not sure what that achieves - it’ll just ramp up pressure to call a general election
    There won’t be a challenge until polling shows another Conservative MP getting noticeably more votes as potential leader than Sunak.

    There is no such person, at the moment.
    Exactly the Tories are heading for defeat as much as Labour was in
    2010 or the Tories were in 1997 (if fractionally less). Changing the leader and PM AGAIN will make sod all difference, indeed if anything Rishi polls slightly better than his party.

    Better to just face the music and then rebuild under a new leader in Opposition
    Agreed

    I don't want LAB to win and won't be voting for them but we could do worse than ending up with say 260 seats, rebuild and rediscover our focus and direction, and hopefully come back at the following GE.
    I don't think we'll be back for quite a long time.

    I'm not convinced we worked out what we were really for last time, and we had 13 years of Labour to do it too.
    The Conservative Party exists for the purposes of funnelling what's left of the nation's wealth upwards and into the pockets of the already well-off.

    There are still a lot of well-off people about - thus, the Conservative Party is a very long way from being a lost cause. Yes, the most likely outcome of the next election is that the Tories will end up in Opposition, but they'll be able to entertain realistic ambitions of a return to Government at the first attempt.

    Labour is terrified of taxing the assets of the wealthy, and without the extra money it can't do anything useful to help the poor, and risks being written off as pointless and useless by everyone.
    Do you genuinely believe that taxation is the solution to most problems rather than wealth creation?
    I think it requires both, surely.
    You beat me to it.

    Taxation is a large part of the solution, but it has to be the right kind of taxation. You tax earned incomes less, tax property a lot more, and presto - more money to chuck at the old and the sick, and more disposable cash left over from wages swilling round the economy to plough back into investment and consumption. Notably, if you don't have houses as a one-way bet, a golden ticket to the promised land that almost constantly balloons in value, then it might encourage more people to invest in something else that actually makes a more meaningful contribution to the economy than a pile of inert bricks.

    The total current market value of the UK's residential property is approximately three times that of the total market capitalisation of all businesses whose shares are traded on the London Stock Exchange. The equivalent multiple for the United States is one. Tax the absolute crap out of housing, using the money to build more houses, correct the ratio. Housing costs come down, residential property returns to being a utility rather than a gold mine, labour mobility and household formation are both enabled, and liquidity is released for productive activity.

    It won't happen because too many voters have too much to lose, but you can presumably see the logic? A lot of our problems can be solved not only by taxing more, but taxing differently. You then invest any surplus that hasn't been spent on providing a minimum income floor for poor people (which will largely pay for itself in the long run by improving health outcomes) in infrastructure, education and tax incentives for private sector investment. What's not to like?
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 944
    ping said:

    A smart policy, perhaps for Starmer, would be “we’re going to force the water companies to replace x% of the sewage pipes, every single year until the problem is solved, without putting your water bills up by even a penny.”

    Maybe replace x% with Xthousand miles, for greater impact.

    Also easier to hide it being a small amount -- "a thousand miles of sewers every year" sounds a lot better than "0.5% a year" and makes it less obvious that the job would take a couple of centuries to complete :-)

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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,981

    There are wild wallabies in France, not far from Paris: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_kangaroo

    ... and in Scotland and the Isle of Man: https://ptes.org/get-informed/facts-figures/red-necked-wallaby/

    Obviously, the ones on the Isle of Man have no tails.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    What can the Tories do to win back support they've lost?

    Not much. Just carry on governing in a reasonably sane way as they have been since Rishi took over. Inflation should come down through the year so that helps and maybe they can do a few limited tax cuts in Budget 24. But really the die is cast. 13 years (14 as it will be next year) is a long time for one party to be in office.

    Time for a change is hard to beat.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618

    There are wild wallabies in France, not far from Paris: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_kangaroo

    We have them too at Whipsnade Zoo in Bedfordshire (they roam freely, not enclosed).
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,715
    edited May 2023

    These results are truly terrible for the Conservatives, no question.

    I only really voted for them out of duty. They do nothing for me.

    Why do you feel you have a duty to them? Genuine question.
    Loyalty and duty really matter to me as values.
    With apologies to both Sir Henry Newbolt and Casino Royale


    The counting room floor is sodding blue -

    Blue with the curses of local Tories that broke

    The cabinet's hopeless, the PM is hapless

    The Party's gone mad with Brexit and Woke

    The puddle of pilf is brimming its banks

    Scandal is near and honour long gone

    But the voice of an activist-donor rallies the ranks

    "Vote often! Bring ID! and vote for the Con!"
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,543

    There are wild wallabies in France, not far from Paris: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_kangaroo

    ... and in Scotland and the Isle of Man: https://ptes.org/get-informed/facts-figures/red-necked-wallaby/

    Obviously, the ones on the Isle of Man have no tails.
    Do they have three legs?
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    jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 659
    I don't want to worry anyone about tomorrow, but - the King has 3 LibDem councillors (Windsor Castle), the Archbishop of Canterbury has 1 LibDem and 1 Labour (Canterbury Cathedral) and the Earl Marshal has 3 Green councillors (Arundel Castle).

    The Coronation is going to be a travesty of wokeness! Don't say I didn't warn you...
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    pingping Posts: 3,733
    edited May 2023
    ping said:

    TimS said:

    ping said:

    TimS said:

    Dialup said:

    NEW: Conservatives lose their majority on mid-Sussex to NOC. Lib Dems now the biggest group. Conservatives down 11. Lib Dems up 8.

    Real discontent in True Blue world, has been brewing ever since Johnson arrived frankly.

    Take a look at the councils which have gone NOC. On so many of them it is very clear that it won't be a Tory minority administration. They are out...
    In a lot of the South I think water pollution has been a real galvanising force. Ignored by the government but extremely salient. Only the Lib Dems and Greens have bothered to make anything of it.
    It’s a perfect Lib Dem/Green issue/policy.

    It’s Clegg/tuition fees, all over again.

    “Do you want to tax people, to the tune of hundred billion quid, in order to stop 0.1% of our sewage going into rivers/the sea?”

    I don’t know the figures, but they can’t be far off.
    LOL. Do we want water quality at around the EU average? Yes, we do.
    Oooh. Starmer would love that for his leaflets: “we’re going FORCE the water companies to BEAT the EU average for water quality!” Or somesuch.

    If he can get it past Rachel Reeves, that kind of policy/spinning could be really electorally effective.

    We’re back to the basic problem, though. It’s fking expensive to sort out.
    Ideologically, i cant see why a national monopoly for life’s most essential service was ever privatised. But nationalising it now seems like a waste of taxpayers money.

    And I buy the argument that if it were nationalised, replacing sewers would be at the very bottom of the list of government spending priorities.

    So probably best to keep water private and use every mechanism possible to beat the companies/shareholders/CEO’s mercilessly until they cut the dividends and fix the problem and their share price is battered down to next to nothing.

    And then nationalise them.

    Who gives a shit about a pile of Canadian pensioners, who have invested in piping away our shit, anyway?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,223
    geoffw said:

    A basket of stocks selected by ChatGPT, a chatbot powered by artificial intelligence (AI), has far outperformed some of the most popular investment funds in the United Kingdom.

    Between March 6 and April 28, a dummy portfolio of 38 stocks gained 4.9% while 10 leading investment funds clocked an average loss of 0.8%, according to an experiment conducted by financial comparison site finder.com.

    It wouldn’t “be long until large numbers of consumers try to use [ChatGPT] for financial gain,” Jon Ostler, Finder’s CEO, said in a statement earlier this week.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/investing/chatgpt-outperforms-investment-funds/index.html

    Selection bias.

    All the studies showing shitty perfomance for baskets of stocks picked by ChatGPT have been discarded.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618

    These results are truly terrible for the Conservatives, no question.

    I only really voted for them out of duty. They do nothing for me.

    Why do you feel you have a duty to them? Genuine question.
    Loyalty and duty really matter to me as values.
    Duty to Chas and the Hag I can understand, but duty to a political party??
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,519
    Well I was wrong (again) about things getting a little better for the Tories as we got into the shires. If anything it got slightly worse. Overall it’s a hammering in a whole range of seats.

    But what can they do after the last 3 years?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,187

    There are wild wallabies in France, not far from Paris: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_kangaroo

    ... and in Scotland and the Isle of Man: https://ptes.org/get-informed/facts-figures/red-necked-wallaby/

    Obviously, the ones on the Isle of Man have no tails.
    and three legs?

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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,715
    geoffw said:

    There are wild wallabies in France, not far from Paris: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_kangaroo

    ... and in Scotland and the Isle of Man: https://ptes.org/get-informed/facts-figures/red-necked-wallaby/

    Obviously, the ones on the Isle of Man have no tails.
    and three legs?

    Nick Palmer for the House of Keys! THE Man for Man!
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,662
    ydoethur said:

    Regardless of this train crash, the Tories would be stark staring raving mad to replace Sunak with a well known perjurer and failure like Boris Jo...oh, fuck, it's happening isn't it?

    Not just that.

    It'll be no more Mr Nice Guy this time.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,971
    Dialup said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1654502460013318144

    The Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivered takeaways to Conservative HQ on the morning after local elections

    Where their takeaways their desk possessions in a box?
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    ydoethur said:

    Regardless of this train crash, the Tories would be stark staring raving mad to replace Sunak with a well known perjurer and failure like Boris Jo...oh, fuck, it's happening isn't it?

    It's not and it won't.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,927
    DavidL said:

    Well I was wrong (again) about things getting a little better for the Tories as we got into the shires. If anything it got slightly worse. Overall it’s a hammering in a whole range of seats.

    But what can they do after the last 3 years?

    Call an election and get out of the way?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,618
    ydoethur said:

    Regardless of this train crash, the Tories would be stark staring raving mad to replace Sunak with a well known perjurer and failure like Boris Jo...oh, fuck, it's happening isn't it?

    "He's mad. He's mad! He's madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of this year's Mister Madman competition!"
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Driver said:

    The most notable thing in recent hours, perhaps, has been Labour supporters celebrating "anti-Tory" voting not pro-Labour voting.

    Again, that is the massive, flashing danger sign for the Tories.

    Under Corbyn, Labour activists and some Labour voters were as keen if not more keen to smash the Tory-enabling yellow scum.

    Under Starmer, they are delighted to see a pincer movement so long as they are (and they certainly are) the big pincer in the north and midlands, while Lib Dems and Greens are the little pincer, holding down the Tories in areas which aren't realistically going Labour anyway, and preventing them pivoting firmly to voters in the red wall.

    You're heading for a big tactical vote-fest when the General Election dawns, mark my words.
    You do realise that LD gains from the Tories don't help SKS get a majority, right?
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    Well, having just returned from an extended drinking session, I've caught up with the news and have a view.

    As a Labour supporter, at this time last night I thought that Labour would underachieve (I'm used to it), and that the Tories would not suffer the losses they have. And I didn't expect the Lib Dems and Greens to make as much progress. I was utterly wrong.

    If there were a GE next week, the Tories would be slaughtered. Enough Lib Dems and Greens would help Labour out in Con/Lab marginals, and enough of us Labourites would help the Lib Dems out in Con/Lib Dem marginals, to rout the Tories. A healthy Labour majority would ensue. But of course, there won't be a GE next week, and lots could still happen.

    But as of now it's been a fantastic day for the anti-Tory forces, and those looking for some sunlight in the Tory results are struggling.

    It's been great fun, hasn't it?

    Here's another Labour supporter cheering "anti-Tory" not Labour successes.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,971

    Well, having just returned from an extended drinking session, I've caught up with the news and have a view.

    As a Labour supporter, at this time last night I thought that Labour would underachieve (I'm used to it), and that the Tories would not suffer the losses they have. And I didn't expect the Lib Dems and Greens to make as much progress. I was utterly wrong.

    If there were a GE next week, the Tories would be slaughtered. Enough Lib Dems and Greens would help Labour out in Con/Lab marginals, and enough of us Labourites would help the Lib Dems out in Con/Lib Dem marginals, to rout the Tories. A healthy Labour majority would ensue. But of course, there won't be a GE next week, and lots could still happen.

    But as of now it's been a fantastic day for the anti-Tory forces, and those looking for some sunlight in the Tory results are struggling.

    It's been great fun, hasn't it?

    I have opened my Coronation bottle early. Lots to celebrate.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,187
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    A basket of stocks selected by ChatGPT, a chatbot powered by artificial intelligence (AI), has far outperformed some of the most popular investment funds in the United Kingdom.

    Between March 6 and April 28, a dummy portfolio of 38 stocks gained 4.9% while 10 leading investment funds clocked an average loss of 0.8%, according to an experiment conducted by financial comparison site finder.com.

    It wouldn’t “be long until large numbers of consumers try to use [ChatGPT] for financial gain,” Jon Ostler, Finder’s CEO, said in a statement earlier this week.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/05/investing/chatgpt-outperforms-investment-funds/index.html

    Selection bias.

    All the studies showing shitty perfomance for baskets of stocks picked by ChatGPT have been discarded.

    My inclination is also to be sceptical about these claims, not least because any advantage ChatGPT has at the moment will be eroded as people use it, and the unpredictable random walk will reassert itself. For the time being it is exploiting imperfectly distributed knowledge. But here's a separate, reinforcing study:

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4412788

    Abstract
    We examine the potential of ChatGPT, and other large language models, in predicting stock market returns using sentiment analysis of news headlines. We use ChatGPT to indicate whether a given headline is good, bad, or irrelevant news for firms' stock prices. We then compute a numerical score and document a positive correlation between these "ChatGPT scores" and subsequent daily stock market returns. Further, ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. We find that more basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex models. Our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,578
    The Labour tally of rising from 2,100 to some 2,650 councillors is good, but not as impressive as the LibDems rising from 1,200 to 1,600, which in turn is eclipsed by the Greens’ rising from 250 to nearly 500.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,981
    ydoethur said:

    There are wild wallabies in France, not far from Paris: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phantom_kangaroo

    ... and in Scotland and the Isle of Man: https://ptes.org/get-informed/facts-figures/red-necked-wallaby/

    Obviously, the ones on the Isle of Man have no tails.
    Do they have three legs?
    Indeed. The third leg, however, points backwards and is often mistaken for a tail.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,685
    Matt Goodwin hesitantly sits on the fence on the subject of whether the Tories are diabolically or merely catastrophically bad. He doesn't outline how anyone might have done different in any sort of detail. Worth reading for a line on what thoughtful Tory friends are feeling.

    Conclusion: being a politics prof is easier than having to run a country.


    https://mattgoodwin.substack.com/p/the-party-that-never-made-a-choice?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
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    DialupDialup Posts: 561
    algarkirk said:

    Matt Goodwin hesitantly sits on the fence on the subject of whether the Tories are diabolically or merely catastrophically bad. He doesn't outline how anyone might have done different in any sort of detail. Worth reading for a line on what thoughtful Tory friends are feeling.

    Conclusion: being a politics prof is easier than having to run a country.


    https://mattgoodwin.substack.com/p/the-party-that-never-made-a-choice?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

    Matthew Goodwin is the worst kind of "academic".

    He has a clear agenda and POV but pretends he's impartial. And then ignores any data or evidence that contradicts what he thinks.
This discussion has been closed.