Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

LAB has 9% lead in BBC Projected National Share – politicalbetting.com

1235711

Comments

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Could we a Tory blue wall collapse to the yellows. What this election has done is clarify who the anti Tory challenger is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Driver said:

    The most notable thing in recent hours, perhaps, has been Labour supporters celebrating "anti-Tory" voting not pro-Labour voting.

    Again, that is the massive, flashing danger sign for the Tories.

    Under Corbyn, Labour activists and some Labour voters were as keen if not more keen to smash the Tory-enabling yellow scum.

    Under Starmer, they are delighted to see a pincer movement so long as they are (and they certainly are) the big pincer in the north and midlands, while Lib Dems and Greens are the little pincer, holding down the Tories in areas which aren't realistically going Labour anyway, and preventing them pivoting firmly to voters in the red wall.

    You're heading for a big tactical vote-fest when the General Election dawns, mark my words.
    Yes, not many LD/Lab marginals anymore so a tacit arrangement highly likely on the ground.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255

    Conservatives gain Wyre Forrest.

    Wyre we interested in that?
    No, Wyre is 150 miles north of Wyre Forest.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    The Overton Window has shifted. There are very few votes left in promulgating a small state.

    We have ever-increasing taxes because voters want loads of stuff, especially the older ones. Again, we must remember that all of the following is true:

    + Pensioners account for half the entire NHS budget, the bulk of social care costs and, of course, the entirety of the ever-escalating cost of the triple-locked state pension. They also expect never to be asked to pay for anything, so all the money for their upkeep has to be extracted through continually rising taxes on commerce and on the incomes of working-age taxpayers
    + You can't extract any more money from the nation's extraordinary massive store of property wealth to get around that problem either, because the large bulk of it is in the hands of older people, who expect to be able to enjoy their estates untroubled for the remainder of their lives and then pass their value on intact to their heirs when they snuff it
    + About a third of the entire electorate is aged over 65, and a full half over 55, so they grey vote is too massive to be easily defied

    Oh, and, largely through an epidemic of poverty that leaves many people unable to afford to eat anything but cheap ultra-processed rubbish, the nation is also literally groaning and collapsing under the weight of millions of fatties, who also end up costing gargantuan sums in healthcare, sickness and disability benefits.

    In short, Government has an immense burden of unproductive people to look after, and it can only pay to look after them by taxing the remaining productive elements of the economy, because going after the assets of the wealthy has become politically impossible. Which is why the UK is irretrievably and completely fucked. And also why the probability of any party promising low taxes coming to power is precisely nil.

    Sorry.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    The specific Omnisis local election poll was almost exactly the same as the NEV projection.

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654529863879933952

    The latest Omnisis national poll - out today - has a 21 point Labour lead.

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654487077138968579

    But will Michael Thrasher listen?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    edited May 2023
    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    I don't particularly disagree with your main point, but given that the Tories will still be standing in the next election rather than throwing in the towel, they could at least adopt a clearly defined and authentic prospectus.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited May 2023
    Happy my prediction of the Lib Dems doing well in the Blue Wall has worked out .

    Sunak neither appeals to the Red Wall and any improvements in the Blue Wall after Johnson and Truss are easily snuffed out by tactical voting.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    Am delighted to learn that the lady living opposite me has been elected as an independent, squeezing out one of the Tories here in true-blue Winchcombe. What's more, Tewkesbury Council has moved to NOC from a Tory hegemony, the LDs now forming the largest Party. She is therefore likely to be wooed extensively!

    She has no declared political affiliation, and majored on potholes. You cannot imagine how important potholes are around here.

    Do you think she's likely to do a good job?

    IF she's schools herself pronto, on the job re: basics & finer points of asphalt, road graders, dump trucks, etc.
    Yes, SSI. I wouldn't have voted for her otherwise.

    The roads around here are truly third world. She could improve matters in a day with a dumper truck and a load of sand. I'd help. So would many of the other motorists around here who slalom daily down the Gretton Road.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Pro_Rata said:

    Conservatives gain Wyre Forrest.

    Wyre we interested in that?
    No, Wyre is 150 miles north of Wyre Forest.
    Yes, Wyre is insulated from events in the forest.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    edited May 2023
    The Tories have had a mare in Warwick and Leamington. Fell from first down to fourth:

    Green 14 (+6)
    Labour 11 (+6, gained 7, lost 1)
    Lib Dem 10 (+1)
    Conservative 6 (-13)

    Warwickshire has been awful for the Tories in this set of elections.

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    Driver said:

    The most notable thing in recent hours, perhaps, has been Labour supporters celebrating "anti-Tory" voting not pro-Labour voting.

    Again, that is the massive, flashing danger sign for the Tories.

    Under Corbyn, Labour activists and some Labour voters were as keen if not more keen to smash the Tory-enabling yellow scum.

    Under Starmer, they are delighted to see a pincer movement so long as they are (and they certainly are) the big pincer in the north and midlands, while Lib Dems and Greens are the little pincer, holding down the Tories in areas which aren't realistically going Labour anyway, and preventing them pivoting firmly to voters in the red wall.

    You're heading for a big tactical vote-fest when the General Election dawns, mark my words.
    Yep. I'm Labour and fairly left but I had no hesitation in voting for 3 LibDems in Teignbridge.

    I would do the same at the GE but I'm in the Newton Abbot constituency which is more of a Con-Lab marginal.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Pro_Rata said:

    Conservatives gain Wyre Forrest.

    Wyre we interested in that?
    No, Wyre is 150 miles north of Wyre Forest.
    Though Wyre Piddle is just a few miles to the east.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The winner today : The Anti Conservatives

    Yep, the anti-Tory party is back. Big time.

    And not before time. Here’s a fun question…

    Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
    No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
    The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
    Joining the EEA is a much more plausible prospect than returning to the EU in anything other than the very long term, but it'll only happen when Labour decides it wants to and then wins an election with a manifesto commitment to do so.

    EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.

    The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
    The EFTA court is an integral part of the EEA, so the two can't really be separated.

    In practice the question of the UK joining that kind of shared single market arrangement would necessitate a renegotiation of the whole thing. It's not an off-the-shelf option for the UK.
    The post Brexit arrangements are up for review and renewal every 5 years. I think an EEA style deal is very possible.
    So not the EEA but simply something that can be sold as a closer relationship?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125

    The specific Omnisis local election poll was almost exactly the same as the NEV projection.

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654529863879933952

    The latest Omnisis national poll - out today - has a 21 point Labour lead.

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654487077138968579

    Interesting. What gives a better indication of current westminster voting intention? a projected national share calculated from how people actually voted in local elections, or a westminster voting intention opinion poll? Maybe the second, which would make some of the kerfuffle about what the local elections mean for a general election a bit of a waste of time.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Pro_Rata said:

    At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.

    If they do pass 1000 seat losses it will feel even more symbolic and significant. Despite the coronation 'distraction', the hacks will like to have an easy number to get their head around.

    Is Sunak's position in peril? I don't know but there are going to be a lot of nervous and unhappy MPs on the tory benches after this.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The winner today : The Anti Conservatives

    Yep, the anti-Tory party is back. Big time.

    And not before time. Here’s a fun question…

    Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
    No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
    The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
    Joining the EEA is a much more plausible prospect than returning to the EU in anything other than the very long term, but it'll only happen when Labour decides it wants to and then wins an election with a manifesto commitment to do so.

    EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.

    The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
    The EFTA court is an integral part of the EEA, so the two can't really be separated.

    In practice the question of the UK joining that kind of shared single market arrangement would necessitate a renegotiation of the whole thing. It's not an off-the-shelf option for the UK.
    The post Brexit arrangements are up for review and renewal every 5 years. I think an EEA style deal is very possible.
    So not the EEA but simply something that can be sold as a closer relationship?
    Starmer has said no to FoM, so likely to be short of full EEA, at least in his first term.

    Of course, he has form in changing his mind when circumstances require.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    kamski said:

    The specific Omnisis local election poll was almost exactly the same as the NEV projection.

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654529863879933952

    The latest Omnisis national poll - out today - has a 21 point Labour lead.

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1654487077138968579

    Interesting. What gives a better indication of current westminster voting intention? a projected national share calculated from how people actually voted in local elections, or a westminster voting intention opinion poll? Maybe the second, which would make some of the kerfuffle about what the local elections mean for a general election a bit of a waste of time.

    I am biased, but I would suggest that the Local voting intention was a clear signal that people were looking locally when casting their votes. In a national poll, Labour is the generic anti-Tory party on local elecitons it may not be. Put the two polls together with today's vote and it says to me that there has been a lot of anti-Tory tactical voting. If that continues to the general election, the Tories are in deep, deep trouble. But I acknowledge I am biased so there are probably other takes available!

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    I don't particularly disagree with your main point, but given that the Tories will still be standing in the next election rather than throwing in the towel, they could at least adopt a clearly defined and authentic prospectus.
    What a governing party should do is stand on its record in Government. In 2019, Boris Johnson managed the not inconsiderable feat of sounding like he was opposing the very Government he had been leading since July.

    Sunak won't be able to do that and indeed all he has is the record of his time as Prime Minister which might not actually be too bad - the problem will be the amount of responsibility he will take for what came before.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    Yeah, 13 years in government is enough for any party honestly.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    edited May 2023
    Heathener said:

    Driver said:

    The most notable thing in recent hours, perhaps, has been Labour supporters celebrating "anti-Tory" voting not pro-Labour voting.

    Again, that is the massive, flashing danger sign for the Tories.

    Under Corbyn, Labour activists and some Labour voters were as keen if not more keen to smash the Tory-enabling yellow scum.

    Under Starmer, they are delighted to see a pincer movement so long as they are (and they certainly are) the big pincer in the north and midlands, while Lib Dems and Greens are the little pincer, holding down the Tories in areas which aren't realistically going Labour anyway, and preventing them pivoting firmly to voters in the red wall.

    You're heading for a big tactical vote-fest when the General Election dawns, mark my words.
    Yep. I'm Labour and fairly left but I had no hesitation in voting for 3 LibDems in Teignbridge.

    I would do the same at the GE but I'm in the Newton Abbot constituency which is more of a Con-Lab marginal.
    Here in Eastbourne it’s a straight fight between the Lib Dems and the Tories which means I voted for the 3 Lib Dems in my ward.

    I expect to see a massive effort from the Lib Dems next year at the GE to get the seat back .
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.

    If they do pass 1000 seat losses it will feel even more symbolic and significant. Despite the coronation 'distraction', the hacks will like to have an easy number to get their head around.

    Is Sunak's position in peril? I don't know but there are going to be a lot of nervous and unhappy MPs on the tory benches after this.
    Sunak stays, but a 1,000 is definitely close to the left-hand edge of the catastrophe spectrum.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    pigeon said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    The Overton Window has shifted. There are very few votes left in promulgating a small state.

    We have ever-increasing taxes because voters want loads of stuff, especially the older ones. Again, we must remember that all of the following is true:

    + Pensioners account for half the entire NHS budget, the bulk of social care costs and, of course, the entirety of the ever-escalating cost of the triple-locked state pension. They also expect never to be asked to pay for anything, so all the money for their upkeep has to be extracted through continually rising taxes on commerce and on the incomes of working-age taxpayers
    + You can't extract any more money from the nation's extraordinary massive store of property wealth to get around that problem either, because the large bulk of it is in the hands of older people, who expect to be able to enjoy their estates untroubled for the remainder of their lives and then pass their value on intact to their heirs when they snuff it
    + About a third of the entire electorate is aged over 65, and a full half over 55, so they grey vote is too massive to be easily defied

    Oh, and, largely through an epidemic of poverty that leaves many people unable to afford to eat anything but cheap ultra-processed rubbish, the nation is also literally groaning and collapsing under the weight of millions of fatties, who also end up costing gargantuan sums in healthcare, sickness and disability benefits.

    In short, Government has an immense burden of unproductive people to look after, and it can only pay to look after them by taxing the remaining productive elements of the economy, because going after the assets of the wealthy has become politically impossible. Which is why the UK is irretrievably and completely fucked. And also why the probability of any party promising low taxes coming to power is precisely nil.

    Sorry.
    That gloomy outlook is based on a lot of flawed premises in my opinion. For example, that all those employed by the State are instrumental in providing indispensable public services.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    The Tories have had a mare in Warwick and Leamington. Fell from first down to fourth:

    Green 14 (+6)
    Labour 11 (+6, gained 7, lost 1)
    Lib Dem 10 (+1)
    Conservative 6 (-13)

    Warwickshire has been awful for the Tories in this set of elections.

    Not many Tory heartlands left.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    I don't particularly disagree with your main point, but given that the Tories will still be standing in the next election rather than throwing in the towel, they could at least adopt a clearly defined and authentic prospectus.
    In 2019, Boris Johnson managed the not inconsiderable feat of sounding like he was opposing the very Government he had been leading since July.
    :D
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    nico679 said:

    Heathener said:

    Driver said:

    The most notable thing in recent hours, perhaps, has been Labour supporters celebrating "anti-Tory" voting not pro-Labour voting.

    Again, that is the massive, flashing danger sign for the Tories.

    Under Corbyn, Labour activists and some Labour voters were as keen if not more keen to smash the Tory-enabling yellow scum.

    Under Starmer, they are delighted to see a pincer movement so long as they are (and they certainly are) the big pincer in the north and midlands, while Lib Dems and Greens are the little pincer, holding down the Tories in areas which aren't realistically going Labour anyway, and preventing them pivoting firmly to voters in the red wall.

    You're heading for a big tactical vote-fest when the General Election dawns, mark my words.
    Yep. I'm Labour and fairly left but I had no hesitation in voting for 3 LibDems in Teignbridge.

    I would do the same at the GE but I'm in the Newton Abbot constituency which is more of a Con-Lab marginal.
    Here in Eastbourne it’s a straight fight between the Lib Dems and the Tories which means I voted for the 3 Lib Dems in my ward.

    I expect to see a massive effort from the Lib Dems next year at the GE to get the seat back .
    Nailed on LD win at the GE, I'd have thought.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,637
    edited May 2023
    Sky national vote projection, just reported on Sky News:

    LAB 36%
    CON 29%
    LD 18%
    OTH 17%

    Seats

    LAB 298
    CON 238
    LD 39
    OTH 75

    I suspect (but don't know for sure) that some/many of the OTH seats are SNP for the same reasons as posted earlier, so real position could be better for LAB
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The winner today : The Anti Conservatives

    Yep, the anti-Tory party is back. Big time.

    And not before time. Here’s a fun question…

    Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
    No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
    The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
    Joining the EEA is a much more plausible prospect than returning to the EU in anything other than the very long term, but it'll only happen when Labour decides it wants to and then wins an election with a manifesto commitment to do so.

    EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.

    The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
    The EFTA court is an integral part of the EEA, so the two can't really be separated.

    In practice the question of the UK joining that kind of shared single market arrangement would necessitate a renegotiation of the whole thing. It's not an off-the-shelf option for the UK.
    The post Brexit arrangements are up for review and renewal every 5 years. I think an EEA style deal is very possible.
    So not the EEA but simply something that can be sold as a closer relationship?
    Starmer has said no to FoM, so likely to be short of full EEA, at least in his first term.

    Of course, he has form in changing his mind when circumstances require.
    In what sense is it "EEA-style" if it excludes free movement?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    "Without being unkind, I hereby sentence you to 13 years transportation to the South Shetlands, mitigated only by allowing you bring along 'The Collected Speeches, Etc. of John Redwood'. And may God have mercy upon your soul."
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.

    If they do pass 1000 seat losses it will feel even more symbolic and significant. Despite the coronation 'distraction', the hacks will like to have an easy number to get their head around.

    Is Sunak's position in peril? I don't know but there are going to be a lot of nervous and unhappy MPs on the tory benches after this.
    It's got to be disheartening for the local activists too. If you've devoted your last n years to the party and you see it almost wiped out on your local council, yes, you might reinvigorate your efforts to win the seats back next time - but just as likely you might say "ok, we had a good run but we're not getting these back any time soon, I'm going to do something else".

    And that's not a good place from which to be fighting a general election in two years' time.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,919

    pigeon said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    The Overton Window has shifted. There are very few votes left in promulgating a small state.

    We have ever-increasing taxes because voters want loads of stuff, especially the older ones. Again, we must remember that all of the following is true:

    + Pensioners account for half the entire NHS budget, the bulk of social care costs and, of course, the entirety of the ever-escalating cost of the triple-locked state pension. They also expect never to be asked to pay for anything, so all the money for their upkeep has to be extracted through continually rising taxes on commerce and on the incomes of working-age taxpayers
    + You can't extract any more money from the nation's extraordinary massive store of property wealth to get around that problem either, because the large bulk of it is in the hands of older people, who expect to be able to enjoy their estates untroubled for the remainder of their lives and then pass their value on intact to their heirs when they snuff it
    + About a third of the entire electorate is aged over 65, and a full half over 55, so they grey vote is too massive to be easily defied

    Oh, and, largely through an epidemic of poverty that leaves many people unable to afford to eat anything but cheap ultra-processed rubbish, the nation is also literally groaning and collapsing under the weight of millions of fatties, who also end up costing gargantuan sums in healthcare, sickness and disability benefits.

    In short, Government has an immense burden of unproductive people to look after, and it can only pay to look after them by taxing the remaining productive elements of the economy, because going after the assets of the wealthy has become politically impossible. Which is why the UK is irretrievably and completely fucked. And also why the probability of any party promising low taxes coming to power is precisely nil.

    Sorry.
    That gloomy outlook is based on a lot of flawed premises in my opinion. For example, that all those employed by the State are instrumental in providing indispensable public services.
    How much of UK public spending do you think is spent on salaries?

    Let's assume you don't want to cut the armed services any further, and that one can hold NHS staffing flat (which is far from trivial in an ageing world, but we'll go with it), then how many people do you think the Government employs?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    Tories hit 900 net losses!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Tory losses now above 900 and still going strong.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    There was a point this afternoon where the Tory losses slowed but it’s the collapse of their votes in the Blue Wall which really accelerated things .

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Foxy said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Conservatives gain Wyre Forrest.

    Wyre we interested in that?
    No, Wyre is 150 miles north of Wyre Forest.
    Yes, Wyre is insulated from events in the forest.
    Was Vince Cable standing?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480


    Gorgeous out at the moment, should have brought the Coronation forward a day. Its looks like pissing down tomorrow.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    Tories hit 900 net losses!

    They're going to get to a 1,000, I'm sure.

    The LDs and Greens actually have more reason to celebrate than Labour. In the circumstances, the advance both those Parties have made is remarkable.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548

    I am delighted to report that we have gained our ward. So that is 3 from 3 in the past three years, defeating three sitting Tory councillors.

    Upon first reading, mentally added a aspirant to "sitting". Fair comment? (Hopefully not.)

    BTW, stupid spellcheck when I type my drivel here (via pc) tells me that "councillors" is a misspelling.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772

    Sky national vote projection, just reported on Sky News:

    LAB 36%
    CON 29%
    LD 18%
    OTH 17%

    Seats

    LAB 298
    CON 238
    LD 39
    OTH 75

    I suspect (but don't know for sure) that some/many of the OTH seats are SNP for the same reasons as posted earlier, so real position could be better for LAB

    Take 15 or so off the others and 10 off the Lib Dems and give them to Lab and that looks to be a plausible outcome IMHO.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069

    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.

    If they do pass 1000 seat losses it will feel even more symbolic and significant. Despite the coronation 'distraction', the hacks will like to have an easy number to get their head around.

    Is Sunak's position in peril? I don't know but there are going to be a lot of nervous and unhappy MPs on the tory benches after this.
    Sunak stays, but a 1,000 is definitely close to the left-hand edge of the catastrophe spectrum.
    As with Major after 1995, there comes a point where a party needs its captain to stay to go down with the ship. Even if you could get round the "three changes of PM in a Parliament is just silly" issue, who is there who would want the job and is capable of improving things?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548

    Tories hit 900 net losses!

    Banged the gong.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,386
    edited May 2023
    I had to travel around that there London in my van today. It's ulez exempt but how can I check online if I need to pay the congestion charge? I don’t think i went into it, but it'd be nice to know.The TFL website doesn't seem to help, I've got an account, but it doesn't appear to tell me if I owe anything.
    Come on, help a country bumpkin out.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,593
    Foxy said:

    The Tories have had a mare in Warwick and Leamington. Fell from first down to fourth:

    Green 14 (+6)
    Labour 11 (+6, gained 7, lost 1)
    Lib Dem 10 (+1)
    Conservative 6 (-13)

    Warwickshire has been awful for the Tories in this set of elections.

    Not many Tory heartlands left.

    The Black Country!

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165

    Tories hit 900 net losses!

    They're going to get to a 1,000, I'm sure.

    The LDs and Greens actually have more reason to celebrate than Labour. In the circumstances, the advance both those Parties have made is remarkable.
    25 councils to go. They're on 912 losses atm.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    Foxy said:



    Gorgeous out at the moment, should have brought the Coronation forward a day. Its looks like pissing down tomorrow.

    You write remarkably good English for a dog, Foxy.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Horsham’s going to be a big one. The Tories are currently competing with the Greens for second place.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,214
    So is the consensus... bad for tories but maybe not quite good enough for labour?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    Micky Fab's local council could go into NOC depending on recounts in this ward.

    https://democracy.lichfielddc.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=122&RPID=25688465
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    Foxy said:



    Gorgeous out at the moment, should have brought the Coronation forward a day. Its looks like pissing down tomorrow.

    You write remarkably good English for a dog, Foxy.
    As long as he has enough time to paws for breath
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,548
    Foxy said:



    Gorgeous out at the moment, should have brought the Coronation forward a day. Its looks like pissing down tomorrow.

    Great fox, Foxy! And perhaps rain is to coronations, as it is said to be re: weddings?

    Sounds like a boon for loyal royal brolly mongers anyway.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,226
    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    The Tories are in a similar position to Wigan Athletic FC. Wigan got promoted last season and started well. They then began to slip down the table so sacked their manager. The new manager was a disaster and they fell into the relegation zone. They then sacked the 2nd manager. Their 3rd manager did a bit better but it was too late and they were relegated.

    The problem was that Boris was marmite and he put off the voters who hated him. But ditching him then annoyed the voters who liked him, whilst not winning back the first group.

    At this point the goal has to be to hold on to as many seats as possible and then rebuild in opposition.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited May 2023
    17 Con gains, 3 Green and 2 LD, but Lab control Leicester

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E06000016

    Mayor Soulsby looking a lame duck now.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    rkrkrk said:

    So is the consensus... bad for tories but maybe not quite good enough for labour?

    Bad for Tories... Labour on the cusp... Starmer should be the next PM even if it's leading a minority government but add in SNP implosion and anti-Tory tactical voting and Labour should just about scrape a majority given a fair wind.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Hanover, popularly known as Muesli Mountain, is no longer a green bastion after the Labour Party swept all three council seats in the Hanover and Elm Grove ward.

    https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/23504319.hanover-no-longer-green-party-ousted-local-elections/?ref=twtrec
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,691
    I find it incredible that the LDs aren't romping home to massive majority government. Left and Right their opponents look worn out and tired.

    There just are no LDs. Baffling!

    (Don't tell me about Mrs Miggins at #42, or that nice Mr Smithson)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    I don't particularly disagree with your main point, but given that the Tories will still be standing in the next election rather than throwing in the towel, they could at least adopt a clearly defined and authentic prospectus.
    What a governing party should do is stand on its record in Government. In 2019, Boris Johnson managed the not inconsiderable feat of sounding like he was opposing the very Government he had been leading since July.

    Sunak won't be able to do that and indeed all he has is the record of his time as Prime Minister which might not actually be too bad - the problem will be the amount of responsibility he will take for what came before.
    I disagree on all counts. I don't see any reason why a Government should run on its record - it can run on whatever platform it chooses. Whether people find that credible or not is another consideration.

    And for me, Sunak's record is simply appalling. What can best be summed up as a global grovelling tour (for daring to leave the EU) has cost billions and borne precisely no fruit except a deeply unequal trading agreement with no exit clause that has failed to restore power sharing to NI.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    These results are truly terrible for the Conservatives, no question.

    I only really voted for them out of duty. They do nothing for me.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    I was amused by the Guardian's description: 'The Liberal Democrats said they “have won big” in Surrey Heath where the levelling up secretary, Michael Gove, is MP, taking control from the Conservatives.' Sounds like Gove is taking back control.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585

    Foxy said:

    The Tories have had a mare in Warwick and Leamington. Fell from first down to fourth:

    Green 14 (+6)
    Labour 11 (+6, gained 7, lost 1)
    Lib Dem 10 (+1)
    Conservative 6 (-13)

    Warwickshire has been awful for the Tories in this set of elections.

    Not many Tory heartlands left.

    The Black Country!

    Remarkable, isn't it? If back in the dawn of pb, you had told me that in a late-term Tory meltdown that they wpuld at least be able to rely on Walsall, well, I would have been surprised.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    Foxy said:

    17 Con gains, 3 Green and 2 LD, but Lab control Leicester

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E06000016

    Mayor Soulsby looking a lame duck now.

    Surely he would only be a lame duck if he had to deal with an opposition controlled council, as bad as Labour did, they still have a majority of 8.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993

    Well, I held on in my seat. 72% - 28%.

    Vale looks very good indeed for us (and the Greens)

    Well done, who is us!?
    Sorry - Lib Dems.
    We've held on to all of our gains from last time so far (despite it looking like a freak result in 2019) and even made further gains. Greens have taken out other Tories; they look to be becoming the official Opposition.

    When we walked into the hall four years ago, the Tories were defending 29 seats out of 38. They were reduced to 6 four years ago and may end up with none after today.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    rkrkrk said:

    So is the consensus... bad for tories but maybe not quite good enough for labour?

    For me the key takeaway is the revival of the Lib Dem vote in the south more than anything. It heralds the return of the anti-Tory tactical vote. That combined with encouraging (if not dramatic) Labour successes will see Starmer into Number 10 next year, the question is whether he will have a majority or not.

    Barring seismic events, Starmer will be our next PM.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Labour majority council in Brighton & Hove - it’s been NOC for two decades. Most recently Green led.

    https://twitter.com/BHDemocracyNews/status/1654532493981229063?s=20

    I think some are confusing “anti-Tory” with “anti-incumbent”.

    The Greens have made a right mess of running Brighton.

    No doubt those other places which have gone Green will regret the experience in due course.
    The Greens have, I believe, won Mid Suffolk outright and have also become the largest single party in East Herts, which should mean they can run the show as a minority or as the senior partners in a coalition.

    Importantly, these two authorities are both district councils in two-tier areas, so their main functions are making planning decisions and collecting the bins. I therefore predict that the Greens will prosper. Consider:

    1. Bin collections will become increasingly infrequent because eco excuses. Voters hate this, but they've also had many years to get used to the idea because everyone's been at this so long through local councils' increasingly desperate efforts to save money. Meanwhile,
    2. The Greens have been elected by hordes of outraged Nimby voters and will govern accordingly. Expect them to man the barricades against any new development, which will thrill and delight their well-heeled, aged, rural ex-Tory converts

    They also have the baleful example of their own party's performance in Brighton to learn from and improve on. Given their limited range of responsibilities, this should not be hard. Avoid a bin strike, if necessary by cutting one of the few other areas that you are responsible for to cover the cost of better wages. Very few Range Rover driving pensioners with big houses in small villages are going to give a flying wotsit if the local leisure centre gets demolished, so long as the bins are collected and the plans for the horrid new garden town thingy with 8,000 houses just down the road similarly find their way into the trash. Result.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    Sky national vote projection, just reported on Sky News:

    LAB 36%
    CON 29%
    LD 18%
    OTH 17%

    Seats

    LAB 298
    CON 238
    LD 39
    OTH 75

    I suspect (but don't know for sure) that some/many of the OTH seats are SNP for the same reasons as posted earlier, so real position could be better for LAB

    Take 15 or so off the others and 10 off the Lib Dems and give them to Lab and that looks to be a plausible outcome IMHO.
    Labour 323 - Talk about nip and tuck for a majority lol!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    The Tories are in a similar position to Wigan Athletic FC. Wigan got promoted last season and started well. They then began to slip down the table so sacked their manager. The new manager was a disaster and they fell into the relegation zone. They then sacked the 2nd manager. Their 3rd manager did a bit better but it was too late and they were relegated.

    The problem was that Boris was marmite and he put off the voters who hated him. But ditching him then annoyed the voters who liked him, whilst not winning back the first group.

    At this point the goal has to be to hold on to as many seats as possible and then rebuild in opposition.
    At least they pay their staff on time.
    Unlike WAFC.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    These results are truly terrible for the Conservatives, no question.

    I only really voted for them out of duty. They do nothing for me.

    Reflects better on you than the Party. Sad, but true.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    Foxy said:

    pigeon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    The winner today : The Anti Conservatives

    Yep, the anti-Tory party is back. Big time.

    And not before time. Here’s a fun question…

    Could an EU rejoin referendum be the price the Liberals ask for a coalition or confidence deal?
    No, but an EFTA/EEA referendum could be on the cards.
    The Lib Dems have form for agreeing to a referendum on the wrong question and undermining the position they actually support.
    Joining the EEA is a much more plausible prospect than returning to the EU in anything other than the very long term, but it'll only happen when Labour decides it wants to and then wins an election with a manifesto commitment to do so.

    EEA entry is a long way short of returning to the EU and would most likely be negotiated without a referendum.

    The UK will never re-join EFTA. What's left of that club values pacific relations with the EU and would be afraid of ructions and, more to the point, a state the size of Britain would completely dominate it.
    The EFTA court is an integral part of the EEA, so the two can't really be separated.

    In practice the question of the UK joining that kind of shared single market arrangement would necessitate a renegotiation of the whole thing. It's not an off-the-shelf option for the UK.
    The post Brexit arrangements are up for review and renewal every 5 years. I think an EEA style deal is very possible.
    So not the EEA but simply something that can be sold as a closer relationship?
    Sounds like a sensible compromise that should have been offered years ago. A good start would be to reinstate free movement and stop pretending that the madness of Brexit has done anything to reduce overall immigration
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    GIN1138 said:

    Sky national vote projection, just reported on Sky News:

    LAB 36%
    CON 29%
    LD 18%
    OTH 17%

    Seats

    LAB 298
    CON 238
    LD 39
    OTH 75

    I suspect (but don't know for sure) that some/many of the OTH seats are SNP for the same reasons as posted earlier, so real position could be better for LAB

    Take 15 or so off the others and 10 off the Lib Dems and give them to Lab and that looks to be a plausible outcome IMHO.
    Labour 323 - Talk about nip and tuck for a majority lol!
    Technically it would be a HP, but they would have a majority in practice given the SF abstentions.
  • GIN1138 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    So is the consensus... bad for tories but maybe not quite good enough for labour?

    Bad for Tories... Labour on the cusp... Starmer should be the next PM even if it's leading a minority government but add in SNP implosion and anti-Tory tactical voting and Labour should just about scrape a majority given a fair wind.
    North Warwickshire probably sums up the Tory-Labour fight quite nicely - Tories lose seats but Labour only advances marginally.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    The Green surge in Suffolk is the most unexpected and interesting development for me.
    I thought the consensus view was the Greens were the Party of the highly educated moneyed urban hipster?
    Apparently not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    DM_Andy said:

    Foxy said:

    17 Con gains, 3 Green and 2 LD, but Lab control Leicester

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2023/england/councils/E06000016

    Mayor Soulsby looking a lame duck now.

    Surely he would only be a lame duck if he had to deal with an opposition controlled council, as bad as Labour did, they still have a majority of 8.
    His days are numbered, hard to see him running again.

    Leicester East may be in play to a Hindutva aligned candidate. It could be one that goes the other way in @Heathener's reckoning.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    rcs1000 said:

    pigeon said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    The Overton Window has shifted. There are very few votes left in promulgating a small state.

    We have ever-increasing taxes because voters want loads of stuff, especially the older ones. Again, we must remember that all of the following is true:

    + Pensioners account for half the entire NHS budget, the bulk of social care costs and, of course, the entirety of the ever-escalating cost of the triple-locked state pension. They also expect never to be asked to pay for anything, so all the money for their upkeep has to be extracted through continually rising taxes on commerce and on the incomes of working-age taxpayers
    + You can't extract any more money from the nation's extraordinary massive store of property wealth to get around that problem either, because the large bulk of it is in the hands of older people, who expect to be able to enjoy their estates untroubled for the remainder of their lives and then pass their value on intact to their heirs when they snuff it
    + About a third of the entire electorate is aged over 65, and a full half over 55, so they grey vote is too massive to be easily defied

    Oh, and, largely through an epidemic of poverty that leaves many people unable to afford to eat anything but cheap ultra-processed rubbish, the nation is also literally groaning and collapsing under the weight of millions of fatties, who also end up costing gargantuan sums in healthcare, sickness and disability benefits.

    In short, Government has an immense burden of unproductive people to look after, and it can only pay to look after them by taxing the remaining productive elements of the economy, because going after the assets of the wealthy has become politically impossible. Which is why the UK is irretrievably and completely fucked. And also why the probability of any party promising low taxes coming to power is precisely nil.

    Sorry.
    That gloomy outlook is based on a lot of flawed premises in my opinion. For example, that all those employed by the State are instrumental in providing indispensable public services.
    How much of UK public spending do you think is spent on salaries?

    Let's assume you don't want to cut the armed services any further, and that one can hold NHS staffing flat (which is far from trivial in an ageing world, but we'll go with it), then how many people do you think the Government employs?
    Why do you assume that I am arguing for holding NHS staffing levels where they are? The NHS employs a number of people commensurate with the global workforce of Macdonalds. Most of these are in management and administration, rather than delivering care, yet the NHS is one of the most poorly managed organisations in the UK; the fact that is has still not come up with a manpower plan (projections of what staff it will need moving forward) despite being asked for one for years, and despite continually asking for more money, is testament to this fact.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Could be a wipe out for the Brighton Greens:

    We have a majority Labour administration. The Green and Conservatives currently stand at 4 and 6 respectively. Three independents. We have 3 wards to declare with recounts underway in Regency and Brunswick and Adelaide.

    https://twitter.com/BHDemocracyNews/status/1654544012928249858?s=20

    The recounts are in Green held wards.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Lewes:

    GREEN 17
    LD 15
    LAB 9

    The Tories went from 19 to zero.

    Admittedly Lewes is a wacky place (it had Norman Baker as MP for yonks), but even so...
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127

    stodge said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    Without being unkind, you've been in power for the last 13 years and through three or four different incarnations as you've sought to renew yourselves within office which never really works.

    The stock response when things go badly is "be more Conservative" but you've tried that - you've tried One Nation, you've tried populism - perhaps the truth is people are tired of Conservatives and the Conservative Party and want a different set of people governing them.
    The Tories are in a similar position to Wigan Athletic FC. Wigan got promoted last season and started well. They then began to slip down the table so sacked their manager. The new manager was a disaster and they fell into the relegation zone. They then sacked the 2nd manager. Their 3rd manager did a bit better but it was too late and they were relegated.

    The problem was that Boris was marmite and he put off the voters who hated him. But ditching him then annoyed the voters who liked him, whilst not winning back the first group.

    At this point the goal has to be to hold on to as many seats as possible and then rebuild in opposition.
    Unfortunately for the Tories, Sam Allerdyce is already employed.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Counting up the results in Horsham . Pretty sure the Lib Dems have taken that with 26 councillors , 25 was needed for a majority.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    Foxy said:



    Gorgeous out at the moment, should have brought the Coronation forward a day. Its looks like pissing down tomorrow.

    You write remarkably good English for a dog, Foxy.
    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7zfto8
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky national vote projection, just reported on Sky News:

    LAB 36%
    CON 29%
    LD 18%
    OTH 17%

    Seats

    LAB 298
    CON 238
    LD 39
    OTH 75

    I suspect (but don't know for sure) that some/many of the OTH seats are SNP for the same reasons as posted earlier, so real position could be better for LAB

    Take 15 or so off the others and 10 off the Lib Dems and give them to Lab and that looks to be a plausible outcome IMHO.
    Labour 323 - Talk about nip and tuck for a majority lol!
    Technically it would be a HP, but they would have a majority in practice given the SF abstentions.
    That's what I mean. Proper nip and tuck. How exciting would that election night be lol?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    A celebratory rum and lemonade for me right now.

    Both organic, natch.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736

    Foxy said:

    The Tories have had a mare in Warwick and Leamington. Fell from first down to fourth:

    Green 14 (+6)
    Labour 11 (+6, gained 7, lost 1)
    Lib Dem 10 (+1)
    Conservative 6 (-13)

    Warwickshire has been awful for the Tories in this set of elections.

    Not many Tory heartlands left.

    The Black Country!

    Enoch and Eli.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,888
    What's gone on in Leicester. Looks like a shocker for Labour
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,226
    Bracknell Forest council have released the final number of seats won and vote % for each party. Really shows how the LD/Lab/Green stitch up made all the difference:

    Labour Party 22 seats 32% of the vote
    Conservative Party 10 45%
    Liberal Democrats 7 16%
    The Green Party 2 6%
    Independent 0 < 1%
    Heritage Party 0 < 1%
    Reform UK 0 < 1%
    Turnout: 28%

    Shows how a more widespread progressive alliance might work, although Lab gained the most with a small majority.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Chris said:

    FPT @Leon

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    This is a fascinating thread as to why right wingers are abandoning the Tories. The anger is visceral

    https://twitter.com/danjsalt/status/1654416099776122880?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw


    Dear Tories

    I am a floating voter - you got my vote in 2019 - I didn't vote this time - you won't stand up for our culture - you do zero about illegal migration - you are flooding the country with legal migration

    1/

    Sounds like he wants the BNP. The Tories are better off without him.
    No. I follow him on Twitter and he’s a pretty standard right wing Thatcherite who wants lower immigration and hates Wokeness. I’ve never encountered a single racist sentiment from his account

    These people - probably @Luckyguy1983 is the closest to him on here - feel that the Tory party has deserted them. They will sit on their hands in 2024, exacerbating defeat
    Good.

    And no offence intended, but I take your view of what is "standard right wing" with a massive grain of salt. With all due respect, you and Putinguy represent some of the very worst of right wing politics on this site, so what you consider to be standard and what I do are fairly different.
    Yeah, but you’re actually insane, so there’s that
    I don't feel that the Tory Party as such has deserted me - I feel that a small group of politicians with an agenda that directly contradicts Toryism are squatting at the top of the party, telling it that it needs them to get elected. The Labour Party is in a similar position. Actually, neither party needs these ludicrous faux-competent suits to get elected - on the contrary, there is close to zero public demand for eco-authoritarianism, and what benighted fools do subscribe to this agenda are well catered for by the Green and Lib Dem Parties. It is obvious to me that most Conservative MPs and practically all the rank and file are deeply uncomfortable with Hunt/Sunak's agenda.
    Redwood also nails this sentiment in his blog about the locals:

    "My advice to the leader is to understand these were Conservative voters. It is unlikely adopting more Labour or Lib Dem policies will win them back. The political market for those who want a faster drive to net zero, who want higher taxes, who want more subsidies and interventions in business, who want rent controls and more migrants, who want to import more and make less here is highly congested. Labour, Lib Dem, SNP, Plaid and others are all jostling to offer a bigger state, more money taken from those who work hard and who save, more directions over how we should travel, what we should eat and how we should pass our time. There is no point in Conservatives trying to compete for that part of the electorate."

    What is the point of Rishi/Hunts crappy sellout agenda? Piss off to Palm Springs and let someone run the country who wants to do something more than run it into the ground.
    It's a shame that John Redwood didn't win either of the Tory leadership elections he stood in. He could have brought events forward by 20 or 25 years.
    Redwood is much better on policy than he is on politics.
    I wish he was. If there were a Toryism plan which could: reduce the state, abolish inflation, build houses where needed but not near Tory voters, make life liveable for for poor, cut taxes, abolish non-jobs, arrange health care well, pay off the debt, abolish the deficit, encourage industrialisation, pay decent pensions, be a big cheese in the world, be both in and out of the single market, not trash the country and win the next election...Rishi wants to hear from you.

    Truss was Redwood in action. How did that get on?

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813

    Well, I held on in my seat. 72% - 28%.

    Vale looks very good indeed for us (and the Greens)

    Well done, who is us!?
    Sorry - Lib Dems.
    We've held on to all of our gains from last time so far (despite it looking like a freak result in 2019) and even made further gains. Greens have taken out other Tories; they look to be becoming the official Opposition.

    When we walked into the hall four years ago, the Tories were defending 29 seats out of 38. They were reduced to 6 four years ago and may end up with none after today.
    Vale of White Horse, I assume? Went to have a look and yes, that does indeed look like a massacre. I noticed earlier that you guys have come close to a lock-out in St Albans; these results look similarly emphatic.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283
    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.

    If they do pass 1000 seat losses it will feel even more symbolic and significant. Despite the coronation 'distraction', the hacks will like to have an easy number to get their head around.

    Is Sunak's position in peril? I don't know but there are going to be a lot of nervous and unhappy MPs on the tory benches after this.
    On the contrary, I have it on good authority that many expected it to be a lot worse. A 9% Labour lead is a lot lower than many feared and whilst I think it unlikely, many will see that as not impossible to erode.

    Sorry to piss on your parade. Labour are a long way from sealing the deal even tho Starmer has made impressive progress
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993
    pigeon said:

    Well, I held on in my seat. 72% - 28%.

    Vale looks very good indeed for us (and the Greens)

    Well done, who is us!?
    Sorry - Lib Dems.
    We've held on to all of our gains from last time so far (despite it looking like a freak result in 2019) and even made further gains. Greens have taken out other Tories; they look to be becoming the official Opposition.

    When we walked into the hall four years ago, the Tories were defending 29 seats out of 38. They were reduced to 6 four years ago and may end up with none after today.
    Vale of White Horse, I assume? Went to have a look and yes, that does indeed look like a massacre. I noticed earlier that you guys have come close to a lock-out in St Albans; these results look similarly emphatic.
    Yup. There's been quite a swing around these parts. We've also made it to a majority on South Oxfordshire - going into the election four years ago, we had only one seat there and the Tories had 33 out of 36. They have been smashed there as well.

    2019 was an asteroid strike here for the Tories. This year has been the Deccan Traps.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    dixiedean said:

    The Green surge in Suffolk is the most unexpected and interesting development for me.
    I thought the consensus view was the Greens were the Party of the highly educated moneyed urban hipster?
    Apparently not.

    I think a lot of rural voters think they are a cuddly party which looks after the environment.

    Silly mistake, of course, but if you're not paying attention, the name 'Green' might give you that impression.
    Bunch of left wing loons that make Momentum look like a group of considered moderates
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    dixiedean said:

    The Green surge in Suffolk is the most unexpected and interesting development for me.
    I thought the consensus view was the Greens were the Party of the highly educated moneyed urban hipster?
    Apparently not.

    Nimbyism.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,283

    rkrkrk said:

    So is the consensus... bad for tories but maybe not quite good enough for labour?

    No. Not from me.

    The NEV with its seat protection of Labour under 300. This calculation is on the basis of 20% Lib Dem vote, 39 Lib Dem’s, and % green have today, all voting as they did today in next years GE. This Westminster seat projection has no lab Lib green helping each other out at all, anywhere. It’s a seething volcanic mountain of LLG that will vote just as it did today in a GE.

    It is a NEV, a seat model projection with zero tactical voting built into it.

    Come on. Let’s all be grown up and professional about this. We are PB. We know exactly how this cartridge of results sets up next years GE and what is going to happen. 😇

    Anyway. I’m signing off. My other half is getting ready, and wants me to get ready, we are going out to stand out all night and bag our spot. The atmosphere is going to be brilliant out there on the street tonight and tomorrow.

    I’m going to close the pad now.

    Enjoy the weekend 🙋‍♀️

    God save the King!
    Has anyone polled God on whether he wants to?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Can we enjoy the notion of the Tories losing rural areas to the LDs and the towns to Labour?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    edited May 2023
    Jonathan said:

    Could we a Tory blue wall collapse to the yellows. What this election has done is clarify who the anti Tory challenger is.

    Was it that hard to guess already?

    Parliamentary by-election results show voters are able to figure out who the best challenger is, even if it is the party in a distant third place, without any help from local elections or parties.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited May 2023
    Heathener said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    At current Tory attrition rate (losing 31% of net council seats), the end figure would be 1046 losses.

    If they do pass 1000 seat losses it will feel even more symbolic and significant. Despite the coronation 'distraction', the hacks will like to have an easy number to get their head around.

    Is Sunak's position in peril? I don't know but there are going to be a lot of nervous and unhappy MPs on the tory benches after this.
    Sunak is not in peril. Tory MPs have been nervous and unhappy for quite some time now, this won't change things.

    There isn't a magic bullet left to shoot. The idea of defenestrating another leader likely for the birds. As a poster said upthread, there comes a point where the captain has to go down with the ship.

    dixiedean said:

    The Green surge in Suffolk is the most unexpected and interesting development for me.
    I thought the consensus view was the Greens were the Party of the highly educated moneyed urban hipster?
    Apparently not.

    I think a lot of rural voters think they are a cuddly party which looks after the environment.

    Silly mistake, of course, but if you're not paying attention, the name 'Green' might give you that impression.
    Some of them genuinely are cuddly types and (aside from a keen focus on environmentalism) weirdly centrist, particularly in the rural areas.

    The urban members and the party leadership are generally the nutty activist types however.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    rkrkrk said:

    So is the consensus... bad for tories but maybe not quite good enough for labour?

    No. Not from me.

    The NEV with its seat protection of Labour under 300. This calculation is on the basis of 20% Lib Dem vote, 39 Lib Dem’s, and % green have today, all voting as they did today in next years GE. This Westminster seat projection has no lab Lib green helping each other out at all, anywhere. It’s a seething volcanic mountain of LLG that will vote just as it did today in a GE.

    It is a NEV, a seat model projection with zero tactical voting built into it.

    Come on. Let’s all be grown up and professional about this. We are PB. We know exactly how this cartridge of results sets up next years GE and what is going to happen. 😇

    Anyway. I’m signing off. My other half is getting ready, and wants me to get ready, we are going out to stand out all night and bag our spot. The atmosphere is going to be brilliant out there on the street tonight and tomorrow.

    I’m going to close the pad now.

    Enjoy the weekend 🙋‍♀️

    God save the King!
    Hope you stay dry, and enjoy it!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Tory losses now above 950 and still going strong.
This discussion has been closed.