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Could LAB return as top Scottish party at the general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    eristdoof said:

    Mr. kinabalu, I'm a monarchist, but have no intention of talking to the television.

    Then again, I was also firmly against the clap for the NHS nonsense, so it might just be that I loathe outward demonstrations of that nature generally.

    I'm probably 3 years too slow, but I have just realised that "the Clap for the NHS" was surely breaking the UK lockdown rules.
    How?
    Well, you don't get the clap by staying locked down with your partner.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    ohnotnow said:

    The header says "The Scots Tories and Greens are on the decline" but the poll image has the greens going from 1% in 2019 to 3% voting intention now and no mention of them in the post itself? Am I missing something? (I don't especially care - just puzzled)

    Senior moment from OGH.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Mr. kinabalu, I'm a monarchist, but have no intention of talking to the television.

    Then again, I was also firmly against the clap for the NHS nonsense, so it might just be that I loathe outward demonstrations of that nature generally.

    I'm probably 3 years too slow, but I have just realised that "the Clap for the NHS" was surely breaking the UK lockdown rules.
    How?
    Well, you don't get the clap by staying locked down with your partner.
    Depends on what your partner has been doing :open_mouth:
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited May 2023
    junius said:

    This morning, I took a selection of my outdated passports to my Polling Station as my ID in order to vote. The Poll clerk accepted the photo in my cancelled UK Visitor's Passport valid from 1985 to 1986. That photo was taken 38 years ago. I have since changed significantly. My hair in the photo was almost black - and it is now totally white. So I wore a cap, and the colour of my hair couldn't be seen. I was given a ballot paper and voted. What a time wasting nonsense this this having to produce ID is.

    It's only time wasting if you accept at face value the pathetic justification given for introducing it in the first place. It has in fact been very effective in putting in place some quite high additional and selective hurdles for 2 million people to jump through in order to vote, so high that all but the most clueed up and politically engaged will have failed to try to get over them in time to exercise their vote. And that was their real purpose. Judged according to their true purpose, the ID restrictions seem to have been very effective given the risibly small number of voter identification certificates actually issued.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258
    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, I'm a monarchist, but have no intention of talking to the television.

    Then again, I was also firmly against the clap for the NHS nonsense, so it might just be that I loathe outward demonstrations of that nature generally.

    Understandable. But there'd be nobody looking if you do it in private. And you do 'take the knee' occasionally, I'd imagine?
    I humble myself before God, and there the list ends.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Sean_F said:

    I voted for two independents, who were the only people who bothered to leaflet my house.

    Nobody deserves my vote so they won't be getting it . First time I have abstained in over 50 years
    That only makes sense if you are standing as a candidate yourself. Otherwise someone will end up representing you, and you have given up the opportunity to influence who that might be.
    Ah, but whoever wins, you do get to smugly say "Don't blame me, I didn't vote for that fecker" :wink:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    A member of my family has managed to get hold of a German passport even though he's British because a relative was born in Königsberg in the 1920s. I'm not sure whether I'd be able to do the same thing. Interesting idea.
  • Selebian said:

    junius said:

    This morning, I took a selection of my outdated passports to my Polling Station as my ID in order to vote. The Poll clerk accepted the photo in my cancelled UK Visitor's Passport valid from 1985 to 1986. That photo was taken 38 years ago. I have since changed significantly. My hair in the photo was almost black - and it is now totally white. So I wore a cap, and the colour of my hair couldn't be seen. I was given a ballot paper and voted. What a time wasting nonsense this this having to produce ID is.

    What was the policy towards voting while wearing a niqab, burka, or indeed a balaclava? Was it permitted before? Is it permitted now? How does that square with 'verifying' photo ID?

    ETA: Or, indeed, face masks of the type popular (or, at least, prevalent) during Covid
    Apparently, polling stations now need a separate private room available with a mirror (for reattaching veils etc).

    Quite apart from whether it's deliberate voter suppression, what an utterly absurd waste of money to address an imaginary problem.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,657
    Muesli said:

    ohnotnow said:

    The header says "The Scots Tories and Greens are on the decline" but the poll image has the greens going from 1% in 2019 to 3% voting intention now and no mention of them in the post itself? Am I missing something? (I don't especially care - just puzzled)

    Senior moment from OGH.
    Bit rude.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    junius said:

    This morning, I took a selection of my outdated passports to my Polling Station as my ID in order to vote. The Poll clerk accepted the photo in my cancelled UK Visitor's Passport valid from 1985 to 1986. That photo was taken 38 years ago. I have since changed significantly. My hair in the photo was almost black - and it is now totally white. So I wore a cap, and the colour of my hair couldn't be seen. I was given a ballot paper and voted. What a time wasting nonsense this this having to produce ID is.

    Ridiculous. I might have a go at doing this with an old passport.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Mr. kinabalu, I'm a monarchist, but have no intention of talking to the television.

    Then again, I was also firmly against the clap for the NHS nonsense, so it might just be that I loathe outward demonstrations of that nature generally.

    I'm probably 3 years too slow, but I have just realised that "the Clap for the NHS" was surely breaking the UK lockdown rules.
    How?
    Well, you don't get the clap by staying locked down with your partner.
    That's not strictly true.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited May 2023

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    Indeed ; that's what John Curtice seems to think, aswell.
    Yes. From what I see, it isn't a hatethon, as much as the Twitter types would like it to be. It's more - "The Tories again? No, not them" - a quiet, definite kind of thing.
    That will do. Happy with that. I see the Cons getting around 33%. This being the sum of 2 groups: Those who always vote Tory. Plus those who always really want to vote Tory and will unless there's something unconscionable like a Truss situation going on. I reckon Sunak will penetrate this far but no further.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    I voted for two independents, who were the only people who bothered to leaflet my house.

    A very brave choice.

    Marxists? Fascists? Who can tell?
    TBF, does it matter much at council level. Are they going to stop flytipping and fix the potholes?

    The BNP councillors were quite effective in Coalville some years ago. Apparently very good at sorting out problem neighbours with a personal visit.
    Ian Paisley was apparently very effective at stopping harassment of Catholics in his constituency.

    It brings to mind the Frank Sinatra joke


    Frank Sinatra saved my life. The Mob guys were beating me in an alley. Frank came out and said 'You can stop now'.
    When Joe Amsler and co. kidnapped Frank Sinatra junior, he later remarked "it was just as well the cops caught me before Frank's friends did."
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    ohnotnow said:

    Off topic, but as Turing Test fails go it amused me.


    Yeah, bit obvious that. A real Brit would talk about the weather for several minutes before exploring other possible topics :wink:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:

    Mr. kinabalu, I'm a monarchist, but have no intention of talking to the television.

    Then again, I was also firmly against the clap for the NHS nonsense, so it might just be that I loathe outward demonstrations of that nature generally.

    Understandable. But there'd be nobody looking if you do it in private. And you do 'take the knee' occasionally, I'd imagine?
    I humble myself before God, and there the list ends.
    I don't think Morris does that either. We'll ask him.

    I actually like the idea of humbling myself before something but it's a matter of finding something suitable.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "Can I take a photo of my dog inside the polling station?"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-65411351
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    Every day, thousands of refugees flee this country for the Continent.
    In large boats?
    Well, Wogers friends lost their yachts, apparently.
    And they say nurses have it tough.
    Quite. What about giving the nurses holidays on the confiscated yachts?

    We'd need to chip in for the diesel - running those things is murder....
    Perhaps Just Stop Oil should glue themselves to the luxury yachts ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    So far, the spectacular or otherwise symbolic attacks in this war (Kerch bridge, assassination of Dugin's daughter, drones over Kremlin) seem all to have been against Russia rather than by Russia. A possible exception being Nordstream in the event it was Russia that did it which I reckon is low-probability.

    Could this change or doesn't the Russian command care about this stuff because the assessment is they've got the population with them and the pendulum is swinging towards autarky anyway?

    A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?

    "seem all to have been against Russia rather than by Russia"

    That's because Russia's attacks are so massed that they don't seem to be spectacular or symbolic. A well-known Russian gets assassinated; everyone takes notice. Russia assassinates many Ukraine-leaning people in the occupied territories, and no-one blinks. The Russians send missiles to blow up residential blocks; yawn. A Russian bridge gets blown up, and it's a spectacular.

    "A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?"

    IMV two things:

    1) Much of their psywar capacity is not being aimed at western nations, but at explaining their 'position' to the developing world; countries that might be prepared to aid them.

    2) Their attacks in previous years had caused us to strengthen our systems. It's now much harder for them to create chaos (though it is still possible).
    I think the Russian trolls have been quite successful. Despite the naked aggression and genocidal imperialism, Putin has significant support from the US right, and to a lesser extent parts of the European far right and far left. There is a lot of Putin support too in Africa, Middle East and Asia.
    don't think Europe has been this united in a long time. Even the hard core "Must punish the UK over Brexit" types are extending olive branches. Sweden and Finland joining NATO....

    Yes, Hungary, but Orban and chums were always like that.

    And, as a counterpoint, the complete, utter defeat of East Politics in Germany.
    New EU envoy recognises ‘willingness to rebuild relationship’ between UK and EU
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/04/new-eu-envoy-recognises-willingness-to-rebuild-relationship-between-uk-and-eu
    Wow, so the state of the relationship is not all our fault after all !
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    A member of my family has managed to get hold of a German passport even though he's British because a relative was born in Königsberg in the 1920s. I'm not sure whether I'd be able to do the same thing. Interesting idea.
    Go for it. Apparently you end up with an EU and a British passport. So when one runs out you can use the other.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862
    edited May 2023
    Miles of lorries queuing to get into Switzerland this morning

    Your man on the spot .., etc
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "Expired photo ID can be used to vote ‘as long as it still looks like you’

    Voters can use an expired ID at polling stations as long as it still looks like them, the Electoral Commission’s director of communications has said."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/05/04/local-elections-polls-latest-starmer-sunak-labour-tories/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    edited May 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    junius said:

    This morning, I took a selection of my outdated passports to my Polling Station as my ID in order to vote. The Poll clerk accepted the photo in my cancelled UK Visitor's Passport valid from 1985 to 1986. That photo was taken 38 years ago. I have since changed significantly. My hair in the photo was almost black - and it is now totally white. So I wore a cap, and the colour of my hair couldn't be seen. I was given a ballot paper and voted. What a time wasting nonsense this this having to produce ID is.

    Ridiculous. I might have a go at doing this with an old passport.
    Yes, I shall have a crack at this too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    So far, the spectacular or otherwise symbolic attacks in this war (Kerch bridge, assassination of Dugin's daughter, drones over Kremlin) seem all to have been against Russia rather than by Russia. A possible exception being Nordstream in the event it was Russia that did it which I reckon is low-probability.

    Could this change or doesn't the Russian command care about this stuff because the assessment is they've got the population with them and the pendulum is swinging towards autarky anyway?

    A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?

    "seem all to have been against Russia rather than by Russia"

    That's because Russia's attacks are so massed that they don't seem to be spectacular or symbolic. A well-known Russian gets assassinated; everyone takes notice. Russia assassinates many Ukraine-leaning people in the occupied territories, and no-one blinks. The Russians send missiles to blow up residential blocks; yawn. A Russian bridge gets blown up, and it's a spectacular.

    "A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?"

    IMV two things:

    1) Much of their psywar capacity is not being aimed at western nations, but at explaining their 'position' to the developing world; countries that might be prepared to aid them.

    2) Their attacks in previous years had caused us to strengthen our systems. It's now much harder for them to create chaos (though it is still possible).
    I think the Russian trolls have been quite successful. Despite the naked aggression and genocidal imperialism, Putin has significant support from the US right, and to a lesser extent parts of the European far right and far left. There is a lot of Putin support too in Africa, Middle East and Asia.
    don't think Europe has been this united in a long time. Even the hard core "Must punish the UK over Brexit" types are extending olive branches. Sweden and Finland joining NATO....

    Yes, Hungary, but Orban and chums were always like that.

    And, as a counterpoint, the complete, utter defeat of East Politics in Germany.
    New EU envoy recognises ‘willingness to rebuild relationship’ between UK and EU
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/04/new-eu-envoy-recognises-willingness-to-rebuild-relationship-between-uk-and-eu
    Wow, so the state of the relationship is not all our fault after all !
    Relationships, good or bad, are by definition not one sided.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Westie said:

    So far, the spectacular or otherwise symbolic attacks in this war (Kerch bridge, assassination of Dugin's daughter, drones over Kremlin) seem all to have been against Russia rather than by Russia. A possible exception being Nordstream in the event it was Russia that did it which I reckon is low-probability.

    Could this change or doesn't the Russian command care about this stuff because the assessment is they've got the population with them and the pendulum is swinging towards autarky anyway?

    A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?

    "seem all to have been against Russia rather than by Russia"

    That's because Russia's attacks are so massed that they don't seem to be spectacular or symbolic. A well-known Russian gets assassinated; everyone takes notice. Russia assassinates many Ukraine-leaning people in the occupied territories, and no-one blinks. The Russians send missiles to blow up residential blocks; yawn. A Russian bridge gets blown up, and it's a spectacular.

    "A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?"

    IMV two things:

    1) Much of their psywar capacity is not being aimed at western nations, but at explaining their 'position' to the developing world; countries that might be prepared to aid them.

    2) Their attacks in previous years had caused us to strengthen our systems. It's now much harder for them to create chaos (though it is still possible).
    I think the Russian trolls have been quite successful. Despite the naked aggression and genocidal imperialism, Putin has significant support from the US right, and to a lesser extent parts of the European far right and far left. There is a lot of Putin support too in Africa, Middle East and Asia.
    don't think Europe has been this united in a long time. Even the hard core "Must punish the UK over Brexit" types are extending olive branches. Sweden and Finland joining NATO....

    Yes, Hungary, but Orban and chums were always like that.

    And, as a counterpoint, the complete, utter defeat of East Politics in Germany.

    Sure, it is a minority in Europe sympathetic to Putin, but present in the far left and right, including in the UK.

    I think Germanys Ostpolitik extends to Ukraine now, which is going to be a major market for German exports.
    I think you are stretching it is say that Germany's policy to Ukraine is Ostpolitik II or something.

    Those advocating Ostpolitik have been comprehensively and utterly defeated in German politics.

    The policy towards Ukraine is something new - not outreach to a *foreign* country, but an embrace of a country that is very actively seeking to be European in every sense.
    Yes, it's more of encouragement of Ukraine's Westenpolitik from their point of view.
    Looking at the figures for 2021, German exports to Ukraine were higher than to Russia relative to the size of the respective economies.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    junius said:

    This morning, I took a selection of my outdated passports to my Polling Station as my ID in order to vote. The Poll clerk accepted the photo in my cancelled UK Visitor's Passport valid from 1985 to 1986. That photo was taken 38 years ago. I have since changed significantly. My hair in the photo was almost black - and it is now totally white. So I wore a cap, and the colour of my hair couldn't be seen. I was given a ballot paper and voted. What a time wasting nonsense this this having to produce ID is.

    Ridiculous. I might have a go at doing this with an old passport.
    Yes, I shall have a crack at this too.
    It is perfectly acceptable to use an expired photo ID, so there isn’t really anything for you to have a crack at.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Selebian said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Off topic, but as Turing Test fails go it amused me.


    Yeah, bit obvious that. A real Brit would talk about the weather for several minutes before exploring other possible topics :wink:
    And not a word about Keir Starmer and Sue Gray. Very unrealistic.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Muesli said:

    ohnotnow said:

    The header says "The Scots Tories and Greens are on the decline" but the poll image has the greens going from 1% in 2019 to 3% voting intention now and no mention of them in the post itself? Am I missing something? (I don't especially care - just puzzled)

    Senior moment from OGH.
    Not necessarily - hard to say without further digging - depends which Greens (could be E&W) or on which Parliament. For the SGs Holyrood is important, Westminster irrelevant effectively with its FPTP system.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    Every day, thousands of refugees flee this country for the Continent.
    In large boats?
    Well, Wogers friends lost their yachts, apparently.
    And they say nurses have it tough.
    Quite. What about giving the nurses holidays on the confiscated yachts?

    We'd need to chip in for the diesel - running those things is murder....
    Perhaps Just Stop Oil should glue themselves to the luxury yachts ?
    Bait for my shark fishing - sounds good.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    edited May 2023
    Taz said:
    You can't get a usual mortgage for houses of atypical construction. There are specialist firms that offer it, but by definition they are limited to nice middle-class people with the money and the time to navigate the bureaucracy, so it;s definitely niche. The numbers are non-zero - selfbuilds etc and I think some houses in Scotland use SIPs (structural insulated panels) - but as a rule of thumb outside of wartime damage reconstruction if it doesn't involve brick or stone, you be dead (dunno about breeze blocks).

    Modular factory-built housing in as a mass market solution in the UK is simply a dead end. Grand Designs: yes. Coronation Street/Brookside: no.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    ISW on the Kremlin drone incident.

    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023
    ...Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization. Several indicators suggest that the strike was internally conducted and purposefully staged. Russian authorities have recently taken steps to increase Russian domestic air defense capabilities, including within Moscow itself, and it is therefore extremely unlikely that two drones could have penetrated multiple layers of air defense and detonated or been shot down just over the heart of the Kremlin in a way that provided spectacular imagery caught nicely on camera. Geolocated imagery from January 2023 shows that Russian authorities have been placing Pantsir air defense systems near Moscow to create air defense circles around the city.[4] A strike that avoided detection and destruction by such air defense assets and succeeded in hitting as high-profile of a target as the Kremlin Senate Palace would be a significant embarrassment for Russia. The Kremlin’s immediate, coherent, and coordinated response to the incident suggests that the attack was internally prepared in such a way that its intended political effects outweigh its embarrassment. The Kremlin immediately accused Ukraine of conducting a terror attack, and Russian official responses coalesced rapidly around this accusation.[5] If the drone attack had not been internally staged it would have been a surprise event. It is very likely that the official Russian response would initially have been much more disorganized as Russian officials scrambled to generate a coherent narrative and offset the rhetorical implications of a clear informational embarrassment. The Kremlin has notably failed to generate a timely and coherent informational response to other military humiliations not of its own making, including the falls of Balakliya and Kherson City in September and November 2022...
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 689

    LAB should be optimistic of getting at least 20 Scotland seats now. Still around 100 gains needed in England and Wales though for the overall majority.

    Labour can not rely too much on Wales - The total number of seats is being cut from 40 to 32 - so while Conservatives will take a huge hit losing at least 12 of their 14 seats - Labour will only gain around 5 seats taking their total to 27 (assuming Plaid keep 3 of their current 4 seats). A nice bonus but hardly a game changer

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    junius said:

    This morning, I took a selection of my outdated passports to my Polling Station as my ID in order to vote. The Poll clerk accepted the photo in my cancelled UK Visitor's Passport valid from 1985 to 1986. That photo was taken 38 years ago. I have since changed significantly. My hair in the photo was almost black - and it is now totally white. So I wore a cap, and the colour of my hair couldn't be seen. I was given a ballot paper and voted. What a time wasting nonsense this this having to produce ID is.

    Ridiculous. I might have a go at doing this with an old passport.
    Yes, I shall have a crack at this too.
    It is perfectly acceptable to use an expired photo ID, so there isn’t really anything for you to have a crack at.
    The game is to have the oldest one that is accepted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    Every day, thousands of refugees flee this country for the Continent.
    In large boats?
    Well, Wogers friends lost their yachts, apparently.
    And they say nurses have it tough.
    Quite. What about giving the nurses holidays on the confiscated yachts?

    We'd need to chip in for the diesel - running those things is murder....
    Perhaps Just Stop Oil should glue themselves to the luxury yachts ?
    Bait for my shark fishing - sounds good.
    Not very chummy of you....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    Just voted. Nobody had forgotten their voter ID so far. (Although they did have a good hard look at my driving licence, the photo taken when I was a couple of stone heavier....)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Good afternoon PB and happy Star Wars AND local elections day.

    I hear polling is "BRISK"...

    May The 4th Be With You !!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    Every day, thousands of refugees flee this country for the Continent.
    In large boats?
    Well, Wogers friends lost their yachts, apparently.
    And they say nurses have it tough.
    Quite. What about giving the nurses holidays on the confiscated yachts?

    We'd need to chip in for the diesel - running those things is murder....
    Perhaps Just Stop Oil should glue themselves to the luxury yachts ?
    Bait for my shark fishing - sounds good.
    Not very chummy of you....
    It's a hammerhead to crack a nut.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    I'm worried I won't be able to get home in time tonight to draw on my cock & balls.

    But, I will make sure I vote first.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    Just voted, but not without difficulty. Bear with me. Mrs Al and I got married 11 years ago. In due course, she decided to change her surname to mine, and did so bit by bit. But yes, you guessed it, one thing she didn't get round to changing was the name on her driving licence, which as a result didn't match her name on the electoral register. She had no other ID with her. Luckily, there was no queue, so protracted negotiations weren't a problem. They wouldn't, of course, accept the polling card. Eventually they did accept our word backed up by a load of 'official' emails on her phone showing her current name.

    Technically, they should have made her go home to fetch her passport, and refused to let her vote, because she didn't have any acceptable ID. To their credit, they didn't. But what a farce.

    Is it to their credit? If someone else has a similar story but gets sent away, and is therefore unable to vote, is that fair?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited May 2023
    kamski said:

    Just voted, but not without difficulty. Bear with me. Mrs Al and I got married 11 years ago. In due course, she decided to change her surname to mine, and did so bit by bit. But yes, you guessed it, one thing she didn't get round to changing was the name on her driving licence, which as a result didn't match her name on the electoral register. She had no other ID with her. Luckily, there was no queue, so protracted negotiations weren't a problem. They wouldn't, of course, accept the polling card. Eventually they did accept our word backed up by a load of 'official' emails on her phone showing her current name.

    Technically, they should have made her go home to fetch her passport, and refused to let her vote, because she didn't have any acceptable ID. To their credit, they didn't. But what a farce.

    Is it to their credit? If someone else has a similar story but gets sent away, and is therefore unable to vote, is that fair?
    I only said 'to their credit' because they saved us the hassle of going home to fetch the passport. Of course you're right - it's not fair, and they should have refused her. But my final three words (what a farce) was meant to convey that. Voting should not of course be at the discretion of whoever happens to be checking one's ID. My little story illustrates edge cases, of which I suspect there will be many.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    A member of my family has managed to get hold of a German passport even though he's British because a relative was born in Königsberg in the 1920s. I'm not sure whether I'd be able to do the same thing. Interesting idea.
    Go for it. Apparently you end up with an EU and a British passport. So when one runs out you can use the other.
    You mean a German Passport. There is no such thing as an EU passport.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I’d love an EU passport.
    My brother has managed to finagle a Belgian one.

    I’m well gel.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377

    Just voted, but not without difficulty. Bear with me. Mrs Al and I got married 11 years ago. In due course, she decided to change her surname to mine, and did so bit by bit. But yes, you guessed it, one thing she didn't get round to changing was the name on her driving licence, which as a result didn't match her name on the electoral register. She had no other ID with her. Luckily, there was no queue, so protracted negotiations weren't a problem. They wouldn't, of course, accept the polling card. Eventually they did accept our word backed up by a load of 'official' emails on her phone showing her current name.

    Technically, they should have made her go home to fetch her passport, and refused to let her vote, because she didn't have any acceptable ID. To their credit, they didn't. But what a farce.

    It was probably the presence of the bear that made them back down in the end.
    Excellent! :)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    Muesli said:

    ohnotnow said:

    The header says "The Scots Tories and Greens are on the decline" but the poll image has the greens going from 1% in 2019 to 3% voting intention now and no mention of them in the post itself? Am I missing something? (I don't especially care - just puzzled)

    Senior moment from OGH.
    No, he is right. The figure of 1% reflects the fact that the Greens only stood in 1 or possibly 2 constituencies at the last GE. Optimists who think that 1% was evidence of improved mental health in Scotland would be deluding themselves. Green support has been declining more generally in recent Scottish polls but since most of them already voted SNP in the general it really shouldn't matter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    GIN1138 said:

    Good afternoon PB and happy Star Wars AND local elections day.

    I hear polling is "BRISK"...

    May The 4th Be With You !!!

    Indeed.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    No shit Sherlock.

    Todd Boehly admits he is yet to 'figure it out' at Chelsea

    Chelsea co-owner appears to admit that he is only now coming to terms with the way football transfers work


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/05/04/todd-boehly-chelsea-transfers-figure-it-out/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Update from the trenches, or rather from a trencherman over dinner last night. An old China hand, actually, spent the past 30+ years in HK and was deported/singled out by the authorities there for his outspokenness.

    Very pessimistic/realistic about China and Taiwan. Gives it 3-5 years before they try to retake and doesn't think The West will do much about it. Even if China sinks the US pacific fleet which I think is a bit of a stretch but I suppose you pays your money on this one and it's what Xi thinks not what I think.

    I can see China blockading Taiwan, but launching an invasion over 150 miles of Ocean against a very well equipped opponent would be very brave.
    A proper blockade would be an act of war would it not ? It'd certainly wreck the world economically.
    Yes and yes. The calculus is whether the US proceeds to war over Taiwan.
    No, it's rather whether the US responds to China proceeding to war. It's not going to be the other way around.
    China blockades Taiwan and to do so destroys the US fleet and then does the US proceed to war with China as a result.
    That is a very good demonstration of the true meaning of begging the question.
    Within a day or 2 of a Chinese blockade going into effect, Taiwan would announce its possession of nuclear weapons.

    Like Japan, they are very careful to adhere to the NPT. They have a large quality of plutonium from the reactors they have. Almost certainly tritium.

    They have a variety of advanced missiles to carry a weapon - including supersonic, stealthy cruise missiles.

    The engineering to create a nuclear weapons is, in modern terms, quite simple, for a single stage device. They would probably go straight to the 2 point systems, with air gaps. Boosting (tritium injection) would be next up.

    Because of the accuracy of modern guidance systems, the probable yields of such devices - say 100Kt - would be all that would be needed.

    The largest single stager ever built was the American Mk18 - 500Kt. But that required enriched uranium and was a very expensive and rather dangerous design. IIRC the French managed 150Kt+ from plutonium in a single stage, but details are scarce on that.
    Just like most places, to launch nuclear weapons would require US agreement so the question is would that be a US decision to go to a (nuclear) war over Taiwan.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    No shit Sherlock.

    Todd Boehly admits he is yet to 'figure it out' at Chelsea

    Chelsea co-owner appears to admit that he is only now coming to terms with the way football transfers work


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/05/04/todd-boehly-chelsea-transfers-figure-it-out/

    Is he going to move on to learning about managers next? Top tip is not Frank.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Looks like Harlan Wolf paid for Clarence Thomas’s great nephew to go to private school.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    I know people here frequently bemoan the state of modern music so it's worth pointing out that the likely no 1 and no 2 albums on the UK album chart this week are both absolute belters. The Lottery Winners' Anxiety Replacement Therapy is a great piece of indie pop with a cameo appearance by Shaun Ryder. I went to see them last week and they are a really watchable live act with a very enthusiastic following. I fell a bit in love with their bassist. And Jessie Ware's That! Feels Good! is a very danceable to slice of disco - witty and fresh sounding despite it's retro styling. Jessie Ware lives round the corner from us and put in a guest performance at a carol concert at the church a few years ago - I was honoured to be one of her backing singers! - and is a lovely person devoid of airs and graces despite being a bone fide pop star.
    Anyway, some great new music to celebrate.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    viewcode said:

    Taz said:
    You can't get a usual mortgage for houses of atypical construction. There are specialist firms that offer it, but by definition they are limited to nice middle-class people with the money and the time to navigate the bureaucracy, so it;s definitely niche. The numbers are non-zero - selfbuilds etc and I think some houses in Scotland use SIPs (structural insulated panels) - but as a rule of thumb outside of wartime damage reconstruction if it doesn't involve brick or stone, you be dead (dunno about breeze blocks).

    Modular factory-built housing in as a mass market solution in the UK is simply a dead end. Grand Designs: yes. Coronation Street/Brookside: no.
    I didn't realise that about the mortgages. Presumably that is the same as a Park Home which are predominantly bought by the mortgage free.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    Just voted, but not without difficulty. Bear with me. Mrs Al and I got married 11 years ago. In due course, she decided to change her surname to mine, and did so bit by bit. But yes, you guessed it, one thing she didn't get round to changing was the name on her driving licence, which as a result didn't match her name on the electoral register. She had no other ID with her. Luckily, there was no queue, so protracted negotiations weren't a problem. They wouldn't, of course, accept the polling card. Eventually they did accept our word backed up by a load of 'official' emails on her phone showing her current name.

    Technically, they should have made her go home to fetch her passport, and refused to let her vote, because she didn't have any acceptable ID. To their credit, they didn't. But what a farce.

    Isn't it illegal to have the wrong name on your driving licence?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    I’d love an EU passport.
    My brother has managed to finagle a Belgian one.

    I’m well gel.

    Careful. Braverman can now deport him at will!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928

    GIN1138 said:

    Good afternoon PB and happy Star Wars AND local elections day.

    I hear polling is "BRISK"...

    May The 4th Be With You !!!

    Indeed.


    Star Trek, Star Wars, and Stargate in a single post. Bravo.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    GIN1138 said:

    Good afternoon PB and happy Star Wars AND local elections day.

    I hear polling is "BRISK"...

    May The 4th Be With You !!!

    Indeed.


    My fingers go like that. Bloody arthritis!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817
    On topic, whilst it is possible my money would be on no. The position remains that a significant number of Scots, at least 40%, want independence and will vote for the party that reflects that. Unless the SNP break up they will inherit the bulk of that support. This makes Labour's task very difficult. I would expect the SNP to retain a plurality of Scottish seats, albeit significantly less than they have now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The Coronation is not well timed for viewers in the Americas, including many no doubt loyal subjects in Canada and the Caribbean.

    They should have kept the Lord’s flummery, and moved the time slot to “prime time”, which would probably be something like 7pm UK.

    (2pm US; 7am NZ etc)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    I know people here frequently bemoan the state of modern music so it's worth pointing out that the likely no 1 and no 2 albums on the UK album chart this week are both absolute belters. The Lottery Winners' Anxiety Replacement Therapy is a great piece of indie pop with a cameo appearance by Shaun Ryder. I went to see them last week and they are a really watchable live act with a very enthusiastic following. I fell a bit in love with their bassist. And Jessie Ware's That! Feels Good! is a very danceable to slice of disco - witty and fresh sounding despite it's retro styling. Jessie Ware lives round the corner from us and put in a guest performance at a carol concert at the church a few years ago - I was honoured to be one of her backing singers! - and is a lovely person devoid of airs and graces despite being a bone fide pop star.
    Anyway, some great new music to celebrate.

    Lime Garden, Yard Act, Dry Cleaning and Young Fathers are all worth looking out for too.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862

    Just voted, but not without difficulty. Bear with me. Mrs Al and I got married 11 years ago. In due course, she decided to change her surname to mine, and did so bit by bit.

    One letter at a time?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    The Coronation is not well timed for viewers in the Americas, including many no doubt loyal subjects in Canada and the Caribbean.

    They should have kept the Lord’s flummery, and moved the time slot to “prime time”, which would probably be something like 7pm UK.

    (2pm US; 7am NZ etc)

    Obviously not expecting as many viewers as the footie which is always an 8pm kick off.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Sean_F said:

    I voted for two independents, who were the only people who bothered to leaflet my house.

    I voted for one of the two independents who had also bothered to leaflet my house. Leaflets received: Independents - 2 Labour 2 Green (incumbent) - 1 - after the postal ballot had gone in - LD/Con: 0

    Voted accordingly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited May 2023
    Foxy said:

    I’d love an EU passport.
    My brother has managed to finagle a Belgian one.

    I’m well gel.

    Careful. Braverman can now deport him at will!
    As NZ passport holders, Braverman can already deport us at will. We are second class citizens in the UK, that is understood.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    TOPPING said:

    Just voted, but not without difficulty. Bear with me. Mrs Al and I got married 11 years ago. In due course, she decided to change her surname to mine, and did so bit by bit. But yes, you guessed it, one thing she didn't get round to changing was the name on her driving licence, which as a result didn't match her name on the electoral register. She had no other ID with her. Luckily, there was no queue, so protracted negotiations weren't a problem. They wouldn't, of course, accept the polling card. Eventually they did accept our word backed up by a load of 'official' emails on her phone showing her current name.

    Technically, they should have made her go home to fetch her passport, and refused to let her vote, because she didn't have any acceptable ID. To their credit, they didn't. But what a farce.

    Isn't it illegal to have the wrong name on your driving licence?
    It also needs renewing every 10 years.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,862

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    My dog has a Belgian passport. I've twice offered him mussels and chips, telling him he needs to make some effort to fit in, but he only eats the chips.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    The Coronation is not well timed for viewers in the Americas, including many no doubt loyal subjects in Canada and the Caribbean.

    They should have kept the Lord’s flummery, and moved the time slot to “prime time”, which would probably be something like 7pm UK.

    (2pm US; 7am NZ etc)

    Well they should have thought about that in 1776! Too late now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    It can be slightly painful process, but get a US work visa, move over here and double your salary. The anti-woke forces will appreciate another recruit.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    DavidL said:

    Muesli said:

    ohnotnow said:

    The header says "The Scots Tories and Greens are on the decline" but the poll image has the greens going from 1% in 2019 to 3% voting intention now and no mention of them in the post itself? Am I missing something? (I don't especially care - just puzzled)

    Senior moment from OGH.
    No, he is right. The figure of 1% reflects the fact that the Greens only stood in 1 or possibly 2 constituencies at the last GE. Optimists who think that 1% was evidence of improved mental health in Scotland would be deluding themselves. Green support has been declining more generally in recent Scottish polls but since most of them already voted SNP in the general it really shouldn't matter.
    When the only context provided to a statement that “the Greens are on the decline” is a bar chart showing the opposite, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to assume that a mistake has been made.

    I never thought I’d see the day a dodgy bar chart-related claim or a Scottish sub-sample would feature on this website. I am shocked to my very core.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    IanB2 said:

    Miles of lorries queuing to get into Switzerland this morning

    Your man on the spot .., etc

    Full of oligarch's cash?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    It can be slightly painful process, but get a US work visa, move over here and double your salary. The anti-woke forces will appreciate another recruit.
    Isn't there a session being questioned by Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro before a visa is granted?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited May 2023
    DavidL said:

    The Coronation is not well timed for viewers in the Americas, including many no doubt loyal subjects in Canada and the Caribbean.

    They should have kept the Lord’s flummery, and moved the time slot to “prime time”, which would probably be something like 7pm UK.

    (2pm US; 7am NZ etc)

    Well they should have thought about that in 1776! Too late now.
    Americans seem to consume more royal news than I remember being exposed to in the UK.

    Not monarchism so much as an insatiable love of celebrity in any form.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Update from the trenches, or rather from a trencherman over dinner last night. An old China hand, actually, spent the past 30+ years in HK and was deported/singled out by the authorities there for his outspokenness.

    Very pessimistic/realistic about China and Taiwan. Gives it 3-5 years before they try to retake and doesn't think The West will do much about it. Even if China sinks the US pacific fleet which I think is a bit of a stretch but I suppose you pays your money on this one and it's what Xi thinks not what I think.

    I can see China blockading Taiwan, but launching an invasion over 150 miles of Ocean against a very well equipped opponent would be very brave.
    A proper blockade would be an act of war would it not ? It'd certainly wreck the world economically.
    Yes and yes. The calculus is whether the US proceeds to war over Taiwan.
    No, it's rather whether the US responds to China proceeding to war. It's not going to be the other way around.
    China blockades Taiwan and to do so destroys the US fleet and then does the US proceed to war with China as a result.
    That is a very good demonstration of the true meaning of begging the question.
    Within a day or 2 of a Chinese blockade going into effect, Taiwan would announce its possession of nuclear weapons.

    Like Japan, they are very careful to adhere to the NPT. They have a large quality of plutonium from the reactors they have. Almost certainly tritium.

    They have a variety of advanced missiles to carry a weapon - including supersonic, stealthy cruise missiles.

    The engineering to create a nuclear weapons is, in modern terms, quite simple, for a single stage device. They would probably go straight to the 2 point systems, with air gaps. Boosting (tritium injection) would be next up.

    Because of the accuracy of modern guidance systems, the probable yields of such devices - say 100Kt - would be all that would be needed.

    The largest single stager ever built was the American Mk18 - 500Kt. But that required enriched uranium and was a very expensive and rather dangerous design. IIRC the French managed 150Kt+ from plutonium in a single stage, but details are scarce on that.
    Just like most places, to launch nuclear weapons would require US agreement so the question is would that be a US decision to go to a (nuclear) war over Taiwan.
    Er… if Taiwan is ditching the NPT, they won’t be asking permission from anyone about anything. They will be in full Fuck You Mode.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    I was serious about the coronation timing, by the way.

    If the royals want to keep the remaining realms outside Britain, they need to think of these things.

    I hope Charles has a tour to Canada and the Caribbean planned v soon.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The Coronation of Queen Elizabeth II in 1953 prompted a transatlantic airplane race between major US television networks, as they rushed to deliver the newsreels from the UK for broadcast across North America. Both CBS and NBC had promised to be the first, aiming to broadcast the evening of the Coronation instead of a day later as originally planned.

    https://www.oag.com/blog/coronation-how-flying-changed-since-1950s
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    TOPPING said:

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    It can be slightly painful process, but get a US work visa, move over here and double your salary. The anti-woke forces will appreciate another recruit.
    Isn't there a session being questioned by Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro before a visa is granted?
    You do have to give over your social media profiles. Luckily, outside of PB, my social footprint is exceedingly limited and anodyne.
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173

    There are already accounts on Twitter and in the Guardian of people being turned away from polling booths.

    What a disgrace.

    Reason #456 for why the Tories need booting out, they are not fit to govern.

    Seems fairly anecdotal so far, and I'm a bit skeptical of Twitter moaners who may have an agenda rather than representing actuality on the ground, but accounts do seem to be suggesting it is (mostly) older voters falling foul of the rules.
  • MuesliMuesli Posts: 202
    Eabhal said:

    Muesli said:

    ohnotnow said:

    The header says "The Scots Tories and Greens are on the decline" but the poll image has the greens going from 1% in 2019 to 3% voting intention now and no mention of them in the post itself? Am I missing something? (I don't especially care - just puzzled)

    Senior moment from OGH.
    Bit rude.
    One to file away for the next thread about Joe Biden. Law of averages says it’ll be along anytime soon.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    IanB2 said:

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    My dog has a Belgian passport. I've twice offered him mussels and chips, telling him he needs to make some effort to fit in, but he only eats the chips.
    Try mayonnaise rather than moules ...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,817

    DavidL said:

    The Coronation is not well timed for viewers in the Americas, including many no doubt loyal subjects in Canada and the Caribbean.

    They should have kept the Lord’s flummery, and moved the time slot to “prime time”, which would probably be something like 7pm UK.

    (2pm US; 7am NZ etc)

    Well they should have thought about that in 1776! Too late now.
    Americans seem to consume more royal news than I remember being exposed to in the UK.

    Not monarchism so much as an insatiable love of celebrity in any form.
    Personally, I thought demonstrating with the election of Donald J Trump that an elected head of state is not necessarily better was going a little too far.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    FPT
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally, should I have had a polling card? Because I haven't had one.

    You have been a critic of this Government. Repent or you won't get one at the GE either. Behave yourself and we might reconsider.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    (FPT)

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Update from the trenches, or rather from a trencherman over dinner last night. An old China hand, actually, spent the past 30+ years in HK and was deported/singled out by the authorities there for his outspokenness.

    Very pessimistic/realistic about China and Taiwan. Gives it 3-5 years before they try to retake and doesn't think The West will do much about it. Even if China sinks the US pacific fleet which I think is a bit of a stretch but I suppose you pays your money on this one and it's what Xi thinks not what I think.

    I can see China blockading Taiwan, but launching an invasion over 150 miles of Ocean against a very well equipped opponent would be very brave.
    A proper blockade would be an act of war would it not ? It'd certainly wreck the world economically.
    Yes and yes. The calculus is whether the US proceeds to war over Taiwan.
    No, it's rather whether the US responds to China proceeding to war. It's not going to be the other way around.
    China blockades Taiwan and to do so destroys the US fleet and then does the US proceed to war with China as a result.
    That is a very good demonstration of the true meaning of begging the question.
    Within a day or 2 of a Chinese blockade going into effect, Taiwan would announce its possession of nuclear weapons.

    Like Japan, they are very careful to adhere to the NPT. They have a large quality of plutonium from the reactors they have. Almost certainly tritium.

    They have a variety of advanced missiles to carry a weapon - including supersonic, stealthy cruise missiles.

    The engineering to create a nuclear weapons is, in modern terms, quite simple, for a single stage device. They would probably go straight to the 2 point systems, with air gaps. Boosting (tritium injection) would be next up.

    Because of the accuracy of modern guidance systems, the probable yields of such devices - say 100Kt - would be all that would be needed.

    The largest single stager ever built was the American Mk18 - 500Kt. But that required enriched uranium and was a very expensive and rather dangerous design. IIRC the French managed 150Kt+ from plutonium in a single stage, but details are scarce on that.
    Just like most places, to launch nuclear weapons would require US agreement so the question is would that be a US decision to go to a (nuclear) war over Taiwan.
    Er… if Taiwan is ditching the NPT, they won’t be asking permission from anyone about anything. They will be in full Fuck You Mode.
    How long would it take them to make a nuclear weapon? We have been looking at/waiting for Iran for some time.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    I was serious about the coronation timing, by the way.

    If the royals want to keep the remaining realms outside Britain, they need to think of these things.

    I hope Charles has a tour to Canada and the Caribbean planned v soon.

    Good afternoon

    Jamaica has just announced it is seeking a referendum on becoming a republic in 2024

    I expect others to follow
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Sean_F said:

    I voted for two independents, who were the only people who bothered to leaflet my house.

    I voted for one of the two independents who had also bothered to leaflet my house. Leaflets received: Independents - 2 Labour 2 Green (incumbent) - 1 - after the postal ballot had gone in - LD/Con: 0

    Voted accordingly.
    Point of order: shouldn't you have voted Labour on that basis?

    Leaflets received:
    Lab 2
    Ind A 1
    Ind B 1
    Green 1
    LD 0
    Con 0
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    It can be slightly painful process, but get a US work visa, move over here and double your salary. The anti-woke forces will appreciate another recruit.
    Isn't there a session being questioned by Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro before a visa is granted?
    You do have to give over your social media profiles. Luckily, outside of PB, my social footprint is exceedingly limited and anodyne.
    So did you fess up to PB? What could/would they have done to find out if you had kept quiet about it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Good afternoon PB and happy Star Wars AND local elections day.

    I hear polling is "BRISK"...

    May The 4th Be With You !!!

    Indeed.


    Star Trek, Star Wars, and Stargate in a single post. Bravo.
    I can outdo that.


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    ECB increases rates by 25 basis points
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990


    @RobertL02984137
    HMS Star, I've mentioned this before but as it's May 4th I will point out again that this is technically an Imperial Star Destroyer
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    IanB2 said:

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    My dog has a Belgian passport. I've twice offered him mussels and chips, telling him he needs to make some effort to fit in, but he only eats the chips.
    Are only Belgian breeds allowed one?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Just voted. Nobody had forgotten their voter ID so far. (Although they did have a good hard look at my driving licence, the photo taken when I was a couple of stone heavier....)

    Hopefully you had your Conservative Party membership card in your wallet. That should have done the trick.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited May 2023

    Looks like Harlan Wolf paid for Clarence Thomas’s great nephew to go to private school.

    https://www.propublica.org/article/clarence-thomas-harlan-crow-private-school-tuition-scotus

    Oddly, he declared a smaller payment from someone else towards the child's* education, but not the $100k plus from Crow.

    Basically he doesn't take disclose seriously. Not fit to be a federal employee, let alone a Supreme Court judge.


    *Not just a random nephew:
    Thomas had taken legal custody of Martin when he was 6 years old and had recently told an interviewer he was “raising him as a son.”..
    ie a clear financial gift for Thomas' direct benefit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Does anyone know how facial recognition works when someone has a heavy beard and moustache compared to a photo that was taken when they were clean shaven?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,928
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know how facial recognition works when someone has a heavy beard and moustache compared to a photo that was taken when they were clean shaven?

    I think it has more to do with the shape of the face, distance between the eyes, that sort of thing.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    The working assumption of the Chinese government has been that they will eventually get hold of Taiwan without firing a shot.

    They may be wrong about that, of course.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I have zero desire for an EU passport, and if I did Belgium would be near the bottom of my list.

    I'd be more interested in a Swiss, Canadian or US work/residential visa. But I'm not particularly bothered by those either.

    It can be slightly painful process, but get a US work visa, move over here and double your salary. The anti-woke forces will appreciate another recruit.
    Isn't there a session being questioned by Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro before a visa is granted?
    You do have to give over your social media profiles. Luckily, outside of PB, my social footprint is exceedingly limited and anodyne.
    So did you fess up to PB? What could/would they have done to find out if you had kept quiet about it?
    I did not.

    I’m sure my email address on here is in some data leak somewhere and they could figure it out if they really wanted to.

    My pro-terror posts on here are vanishingly slight, though. And only occasionally have I called for the liquidation of the over 70s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Heathener said:

    The Scotland shift, which began two or three years ago and long before the SNP woes, is very interesting and increases my confidence in a Labour landslide.

    Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.

    The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.

    I wouldn't be surprised. The Tory Party in its present incarnation is vile. I just received a text from an old friend saying she had just received her Austrian passport. Her late father was an Austrian refugee and apparently that entitles her and her whole family- children included -to an Austrian (EU) passport.

    There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
    Every day, thousands of refugees flee this country for the Continent.
    In large boats?
    Well, Wogers friends lost their yachts, apparently.
    And they say nurses have it tough.
    Quite. What about giving the nurses holidays on the confiscated yachts?

    We'd need to chip in for the diesel - running those things is murder....
    Perhaps Just Stop Oil should glue themselves to the luxury yachts ?
    Bait for my shark fishing - sounds good.
    Not very chummy of you....
    It's a hammerhead to crack a nut.
    Mako 'f it what you will.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    OldBasing said:

    There are already accounts on Twitter and in the Guardian of people being turned away from polling booths.

    What a disgrace.

    Reason #456 for why the Tories need booting out, they are not fit to govern.

    Seems fairly anecdotal so far, and I'm a bit skeptical of Twitter moaners who may have an agenda rather than representing actuality on the ground, but accounts do seem to be suggesting it is (mostly) older voters falling foul of the rules.
    I imagine there will be all sorts of lies put out there about this. The fact that it is largely elderly who may need to return home for ID also gives the lie to the cynical divisive arguments put forward by Labour. If it is the elderly being turned away, then it is more likely to damage the Tories, or, as seems likely to me, have zero effect whatsoever.

    I forgot a document I needed for something yesterday. It was important enough to me for me to return to my house to get it. Too lazy or too stupid to bring ID? Not taking democracy seriously. Just like the Labour Party
This discussion has been closed.