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Could LAB return as top Scottish party at the general election? – politicalbetting.com
Could LAB return as top Scottish party at the general election? – politicalbetting.com
At the 2010 General Election when the Tories returned to power there was no change in the seats in Scotland. Labour had 41 of the 69 seats and ended up with 41 of the 69 seats
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Slightly more seriously, I find this one incredibly hard to call. I suspect the polarisation around Indy has made the "tartan Tories" unpalatable for most actual Tories. If Yousaf can restore a reputation for basic competence then maybe there'll be some transfers, but the clusterf*ck of the last few months makes that seem pretty unlikely.
"Will" - I'd be less sure and put it at about a 1 in 3, 1 in 4 chance, more likely that the SNP just edge it.
This would be great.
It’s what Salmond did when he resigned as First Minister after losing the Indyref.
The UK political system is cheap. Paying for the operations of a whole political party is perfectly feasible for someone not especially rich.
Accounting systems are generally setup to detect fraudulent removal of money from organisations. I suspect that someone pushing money in would be less noticeable. There is some history on that, in non-political party organisations.
If true, it's something that many in the O-V+ and O+V- groups (middle class Republic types in the former, far right nationalists in the latter) might not want to talk about much. Ditto with the more grownup and less prejudiced mong the O+V+ types. (The less grownup would be fine with just locking all the O-V- types up.) Got to see the funny side.
Meanwhile I voted by post in today's locals. I voted for 3 LibDems and 1 Labour because I'm in a Lib-Con marginal and I will do anything to vote out the tories.
The next General Election will be more of an anti-tory vote than most people on here recognise.
Local Hero was a near-perfect stand alone piece. There would be nothing to be improved upon, only the very real risk of destroying the joy of the original.
Remarkable to think that in just eight years Labour went from controlling every major body on the mainland to by 2015 controlling just Wales.
And in 2016 although they won back London they couldn't even manage second in Scotland.
Would people buy or sell at 10%?
Another possibility could be some sort of mild companion piece rather than direct sequel ; all sorts of later luminaries were in it, like Peter Capaldi, but with Bill getting on in years, it looks unlikely.
Like Japan, they are very careful to adhere to the NPT. They have a large quality of plutonium from the reactors they have. Almost certainly tritium.
They have a variety of advanced missiles to carry a weapon - including supersonic, stealthy cruise missiles.
The engineering to create a nuclear weapons is, in modern terms, quite simple, for a single stage device. They would probably go straight to the 2 point systems, with air gaps. Boosting (tritium injection) would be next up.
Because of the accuracy of modern guidance systems, the probable yields of such devices - say 100Kt - would be all that would be needed.
The largest single stager ever built was the American Mk18 - 500Kt. But that required enriched uranium and was a very expensive and rather dangerous design. IIRC the French managed 150Kt+ from plutonium in a single stage, but details are scarce on that.
Con 7 (+1)
Lab 22 (+21)
LD 5 (+1)
SNP 25 (-23)
That is before allowing for any unionist tactical voting, beyond any that which occured in 2019.
I then added in parameters that provide for an extra 10% of Lab and LD voters being prepared to vote tactically in Scotland, which is a pretty minimal assumption, and also ignores completely any possibility of Scottish Conservatives voting tactically for unionist Labour aka Mr D Ross. Even on that minimalist assumption, Labour then pick up an extra 2 seats at the expense of the SNP, so it becomes Lab 24, SNP 23, Con 7, LD 5 on the old boundaries. On the new boundaries, with 2 less Scottish seats overall, it would be Lab 23, SNP 23, Con 6, LD 5.
Then again, I was also firmly against the clap for the NHS nonsense, so it might just be that I loathe outward demonstrations of that nature generally.
Just so one knows how much we're all being ripped off, DA Roberts in Whitchurch (always a good benchmark for what fuel should cost) is currently at 134.9 for diesel and 139.9 for petrol.
My local supermarket is 156.9 for diesel and 142.9 for petrol - no profiteering there on diesel at all obviously...
If Acoba doesn't veto it.
I have an app that tells me where the cheapest fuel is within x25 miles and then its a question of working out if the distance to travel is worth the extra 2p or so off.....
There seems to be quite a scramble in London in particular to look for for loopholes that will get people EU passports. How ridiculous that people are having to go through hoops to get what we all had by right before this Tory/UKIP government took power
They are very keen on missile defence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_Bow etc
It is worth noting that nuclear *defensive* weapons are extremely effective. A nuke burst over the open sea would smash cruise missiles into the water, at a range of kilometres. At high altitude - 100K feet - against incoming ballistic missiles, the Pk are above 1. That is, a single interceptor with a nuke warhead might well take out more than one incoming warhead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvZGaMt7UgQ for example.
The reason that the US and others turned away from this, was the advent of MIRV - making it cheaper to add warheads than defensive missiles. In addition, ABM sites can only protect a narrow corridor - a few miles wide, but hundreds of miles long, due to the physics of the intercepts. Nukes help with that, but not enough.
In this case, the small size of Taiwan makes the problem easier - a couple of ABM sites could well defend the whole island.
It is worth noting that their largest SAM systems could carry the kind of nuclear warhead I outlined above.
Could this change or doesn't the Russian command care about this stuff because the assessment is they've got the population with them and the pendulum is swinging towards autarky anyway?
A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?
i.e. erstwhile Tory voters, as well as Lib Dems and Greens, voting Labour or Lib Dem in L/LD-SNP marginals; but LLG supporters not returning the favour in Tory-SNP marginals. That would potentially deliver more seats than expected to the SNP but also increase the scale of the anti-Tory seat majority at Westminster.
The guys who achieved the most spectacular military traffic jam of modern times, on their way to Kyiv, turn out not to be able to organise a decent troll for PB. What are the odds?
The attacks on electricity and water infrastructure were certainly symbolic, and huge scale compared with anything Ukraine has done.
But the one off spectaculars are generally more the preserve of the underdog in any event.
The war has often felt like a Rugby match. It's like England vs a more talented but physically weaker side. We try to grind out a win through the overwhelming power of the forwards, spending extended periods in the opposition 22. Bakhmut is like a series of scrums and rolling mauls. They defend heroically. When they finally get the turnover their best bet is a lightning counter from the backs, the accumulation of long distance penalty kicks, and the occasional audacious drop goal. Everyone awaiting the much heralded counterattack is hoping it's going to be a quick turnover and a sprint to the tryline but the fear is it ends up with a few wasted punts up the field.
The only question the US would have is whether to respond, or to meekly surrender and lose the war. But war would have already begun the second their fleet was attacked.
Neither were NIMBY on their leaflets, which is a positive as that'd be a deal-breaker for me, so going off national issues I will cast my first ever* vote for the Lib Dems today.
First time in 20 years in a real election, to see people actually serve as elected individuals, that I've not cast my vote for the Tories.
* Excluding preferential secondary ballots, they were normally my 2nd choice when we had those in the past.
It made less sense and had less chance of success than Market Garden.
Its more a huge, but very incompetent force trying to crush a smaller, but much more adaptable foe.
Bakhmut is the closest they've got to trying to get the Ukranians to play their (the Russian) game.
That's because Russia's attacks are so massed that they don't seem to be spectacular or symbolic. A well-known Russian gets assassinated; everyone takes notice. Russia assassinates many Ukraine-leaning people in the occupied territories, and no-one blinks. The Russians send missiles to blow up residential blocks; yawn. A Russian bridge gets blown up, and it's a spectacular.
"A few years ago Russia had a strong internet psywar capability. What happened?"
IMV two things:
1) Much of their psywar capacity is not being aimed at western nations, but at explaining their 'position' to the developing world; countries that might be prepared to aid them.
2) Their attacks in previous years had caused us to strengthen our systems. It's now much harder for them to create chaos (though it is still possible).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/apr/29/how-war-in-taiwan-could-mean-the-wheels-come-off-the-uk-economy
"It certainly makes it even more difficult for the Conservatives to play the equivalent of the "Miliband in Salmond's pocket" card that was so effective in 2015 in England. Not that an image of Starmer in Yousless's pocket would ever have worked this time anyway. Starmer has not followed in the footsteps of Miliband's disasterous equivocation, and the hapless Yousless is seen as a threat only to himself."
I note with interest that this Redfield poll also shows that Yousaf is regarded as favoured for First Minister by 37-25 over Ross and by 31-29 over Sarwar. I am not a great admirer of Yousaf (I voted for Forbes in the leadership election) but he is not the no hoper that many outwith the ranks of the SNP would like to believe.
In the UK GE a lot will depend on whether the SNP can successfully persuade the voters (in the teeth of the 95% pro Union editing by the media in Scotland) how distant Labour is from Scotland with its "Make Brexit Work" and no abolition of tuition fees etc.etc.
If the contest appears close, there will be a tussle between vote SNP to achieve the balance of power and vote Labour to make sure the Tories are defeated (the latter not as convincing as might seem as voting SNP would also achieve that)
I don't care who wins them, just as long as the Tories lose them.
An SNP to Lab swing could benefit the Tories.
Last point is often forgotten. As is the small matter that Labour is a Brexiter, right-wing party designed to appeal to Tory voters.
Also: reading my Modern Railways magazine - there is an article yet again assessing the Scottish Government and railways, from an outsider. As usual, the magazine rates the SG and its civil servants highly for at least knowing what railways are for and trying with some success to develop and maintain them, much more so than any other administration in the UK.
Quite a contrast with the ferries - but while the Unionists harp on them with some justification, it is also true that there are no nationalised ferries any longer in rUK. One wonders what the DTp would have made of Sealink in BR days, for instance.
Yes, Hungary, but Orban and chums were always like that.
And, as a counterpoint, the complete, utter defeat of East Politics in Germany.
Those who see the invasion as justified revenge for Iraq/Palestine/Libya etc.
I would also emphasise there's a difference between sympathetic to Putin, and taking a realist's approach to how this war will be resolved, which I would also take ; and I don't think it's going to end with Ukraine maintaining every inch of its pre-2014 territory.
Sure, it is a minority in Europe sympathetic to Putin, but present in the far left and right, including in the UK.
I think Germanys Ostpolitik extends to Ukraine now, which is going to be a major market for German exports.
Marxists? Fascists? Who can tell?
The BNP councillors were quite effective in Coalville some years ago. Apparently very good at sorting out problem neighbours with a personal visit.
Secondly, if they do turn out to be decidedly odd, I am not sure they present all that much risk of bringing about a revolution from the bully pulpit that is being the local councillor for Little Tittingham ward in the district of South West Soddingshire, or whatever it is.
Those advocating Ostpolitik have been comprehensively and utterly defeated in German politics.
The policy towards Ukraine is something new - not outreach to a *foreign* country, but an embrace of a country that is very actively seeking to be European in every sense.
The EC projection that I gave didn't allow for any anti-SNP tactical voting by or to the Conservatives. Looking at the breakdown of Lab 24, SNP 23, Con 7, LD 5 that that projection produced on current boundaries, and seats where Lab or the LDs are challenging, there are a couple of SNP seats where Electoral Calculus project an SNP majority of only around 1%, in both cases over Labour. Paisley and Renfrewshire S (SNP maj 0.7%, Con vote 10.6%) and Livingston (SNP maj 1.2%, Con vote 15.3%). So those seats might also switch if a small number of Scottish Conservatives were induced to vote Labour in those Lab-SNP marginals, taking the Lab total up to 26 and the SNP down to 21 on current boundaries.
It brings to mind the Frank Sinatra joke
Frank Sinatra saved my life. The Mob guys were beating me in an alley. Frank came out and said 'You can stop now'.
Walter Sobchak: Nihilists! F*** me. I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.
ETA: Or, indeed, face masks of the type popular (or, at least, prevalent) during Covid
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/04/new-eu-envoy-recognises-willingness-to-rebuild-relationship-between-uk-and-eu
We'd need to chip in for the diesel - running those things is murder....