When Liz Truss took over, the Conservatives were just above 30% on average, and Labour just above 40%. IMHO, that's where the two parties ought to be, barring spectacular cocks ups, such as Liz Truss' "government."
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
I don’t know how anyone with a functioning brain can NOT be interested in the Coronation. It’s a spectacularly unique event - and that’s true even if you absolutely DESPISE the monarchy. Even more so, in fact
I know what you mean however studies would find an inverse correlation between IQ and interest in the Coronation. Eg I’ll be watching it but it'll be my sloppy side that's making me do that.
Don't know about anybody else, but what I'm dreading most is that there's still a whole week to go until the Coronation. If today's anything to go by, PB is going to be crazily full of anodyne comments about the virtues of watching it or not watching it.
And I've just joined in.... To be clear, I won't be watching it but I don't give a flying fuck about whether other people watch it or not. That's my last comment on the subject.
I don’t know how anyone with a functioning brain can NOT be interested in the Coronation. It’s a spectacularly unique event - and that’s true even if you absolutely DESPISE the monarchy. Even more so, in fact
I know what you mean however studies would find an inverse correlation between IQ and interest in the Coronation. Eg I’ll be watching it but it'll be my sloppy side that's making me do that.
Not a very flattering way to speak about Mrs. Kinabula.
Don't know about anybody else, but what I'm dreading most is that there's still a whole week to go until the Coronation. If today's anything to go by, PB is going to be crazily full of anodyne comments about the virtues of watching it or not watching it.
And I've just joined in.... To be clear, I won't be watching it but I don't give a flying fuck about whether other people watch it or not. That's my last comment on the subject.
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
When Liz Truss took over, the Conservatives were just above 30% on average, and Labour just above 40%. IMHO, that's where the two parties ought to be, barring spectacular cocks ups, such as Liz Truss' "government."
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
I think it would be remarkable if the experience of the Truss Calamity had no lasting effect on the reputation of the Conservative party. These sorts of things should have a political impact for at least a decade
When Liz Truss took over, the Conservatives were just above 30% on average, and Labour just above 40%. IMHO, that's where the two parties ought to be, barring spectacular cocks ups, such as Liz Truss' "government."
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
I think it would be remarkable if the experience of the Truss Calamity had no lasting effect on the reputation of the Conservative party. These sorts of things should have a political impact for at least a decade
There seems to be this odd idea that Corbyn's legacy has damaged Labour but Truss's hasn't damaged the Tories. Despite them both having the same effect on their respective parties.
I don’t know how anyone with a functioning brain can NOT be interested in the Coronation. It’s a spectacularly unique event - and that’s true even if you absolutely DESPISE the monarchy. Even more so, in fact
I know what you mean however studies would find an inverse correlation between IQ and interest in the Coronation. Eg I’ll be watching it but it'll be my sloppy side that's making me do that.
Can you be more specific? Is it because you're addicted to watching TV and there'll be nothing else on? Or because all it takes is a crowd to do something and you'll do the same? Or because for some reason you can't think of anything better to do with your time than consume this kind of excrement for the soul? Or what?
When Liz Truss took over, the Conservatives were just above 30% on average, and Labour just above 40%. IMHO, that's where the two parties ought to be, barring spectacular cocks ups, such as Liz Truss' "government."
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
Yes that's my Head position. Heart then clutters it up with "oh god, those pesky Tories, not again surely". Hopefully this is reverse confirmation bias. Overrating the chances of what you most fear. That's a real thing in life and in betting.
My last six days’ walk, and the view after 145 miles
30+ miles on Monday is properly impressive
I used to be an indefatigable walker, and still enjoy the occasional 10-15 miler
But 20-30 miles EVERY DAY is seriously impressive
Would have done OK in Wellington’s Peninsular campaign, too.
Pilgrims going to Santiago de Compostela are recommended to do 12-20 miles a day. More than that and you start to risk injury. So @BlancheLivermore doing 20-30 miles OR MORE is, as you say, military grade yomping
I hope our postie doesn’t come a cropper
I've done what he's done before on the South West Coast Path.
If you're on your own, and you're not sleeping or eating, what else is there to do but walk, see the world, and complete your task?
That's how you clock up the big daily mile counts. Because you end up strolling from dawn to dusk.
Sure. I’ve done the SW path for a week. Very enjoyable
I’m just saying that 30m+ in a day is a remarkable pace. He must be very fit. That’s some serious walking that would leave most people blistered and sprained
Astonishingly, no blisters yet
I’ve also, rather recklessly, managed this drinking only booze
The only nonalcoholic drinks I’ve had have been coffees with breakfast
Legionaries supposedly drank a litre of wine (or what passed for it) a day, so yep, Roman army. Coffee not so much, though.
They drank what the Bible used to call "vinegar", which was sour white wine, diluted with water. It was refreshing in hot weather.
I agree with you for what it's worth. No real interest in the Coronation, and Leon wanking himself off over it hardly makes it more appealing.
I will readily admit that my wanking - however famous it may be in prime ministerial circles - is not everyone’s main interest here. What I don’t understand is how people apparently deeply interested in politics are NOT interested in the Coronation?
Among other things, it is a hugely political event in the life of the nation - and other nations under the crown
Because the main interest of people here is political geekery and numerical analysis?
I mean, it does attract a certain type, and to some extent that's consistent across party lines.
What are the betting opportunities for the Coronation?
1.01 that the Express writes something nasty about Meghan and Harry.
I agree with you for what it's worth. No real interest in the Coronation, and Leon wanking himself off over it hardly makes it more appealing.
I will readily admit that my wanking - however famous it may be in prime ministerial circles - is not everyone’s main interest here. What I don’t understand is how people apparently deeply interested in politics are NOT interested in the Coronation?
Among other things, it is a hugely political event in the life of the nation - and other nations under the crown
Because the main interest of people here is political geekery and numerical analysis?
I mean, it does attract a certain type, and to some extent that's consistent across party lines.
What are the betting opportunities for the Coronation?
1.01 that the Express writes something nasty about Meghan and Harry.
I don’t know how anyone with a functioning brain can NOT be interested in the Coronation. It’s a spectacularly unique event - and that’s true even if you absolutely DESPISE the monarchy. Even more so, in fact
I know what you mean however studies would find an inverse correlation between IQ and interest in the Coronation. Eg I’ll be watching it but it'll be my sloppy side that's making me do that.
Can you be more specific? Is it because you're addicted to watching TV and there'll be nothing else on? Or because all it takes is a crowd to do something and you'll do the same? Or because for some reason you can't think of anything better to do with your time than consume this kind of excrement for the soul? Or what?
I bet most of the people on here blithely saying “ah, I can’t be bothered watching the coronation” will actually end up watching it
I know this, because I’m one of them. Until a week ago I didn’t give a toss. The queens funeral was big. This seems so much less important
But as it gets nearer I’ve suddenly realised how unique it is. And it’s ours. And it’s just so…. OLD. It is intrinsically fascinating on multiple levels, it’s a spectacularly complex religio-political ceremony that dates back over 1000 years and is very very rarely seen and has only been televised ONCE
I truly don't know anyone in my circle (friends or professional) who's even mentioned it. I dare say a few (like I will) will have a youtube of moments in the corner of their screen - but it's pretty much a on a par with 'new tesla' or 'test launch of space-x'. Just a mild distraction that you might want to say "i saw that".
Those who "care about" the coronation aren't representative of Britain. That's for sure. They're represenative of the Tory party though.
Doesn't it show the opposite? Only a third don't care at all. The rest "care about" it at some level.
"Not very much" here means less than a fair amount, i.e. little. Both the question and the options could have been better phrased.
Any idea when the last poll was showing support for the monarchy (Yes/No) broken down by region? I'd be interested to know whether the monarchy is supported by a majority in London or not. (DK/WS excluded.)
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
When Liz Truss took over, the Conservatives were just above 30% on average, and Labour just above 40%. IMHO, that's where the two parties ought to be, barring spectacular cocks ups, such as Liz Truss' "government."
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
I think it would be remarkable if the experience of the Truss Calamity had no lasting effect on the reputation of the Conservative party. These sorts of things should have a political impact for at least a decade
It would be like the public has lost its ability to form short term memories and process information. Whatever the name for that malady is at the societal level.
"Learn to love ambiguity The need for structure and order is the root of evil
My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."
Couldn't give a toss about the Coronation if I am honest. I won't be tuning in
Then you’re BONKERS
@Casino_Royale is right. This is the kind of medieval-modern spectacle that ONLY Britain can do and it ONLY happens once every few decades. Seven decades in this case. This may be the only coronation many people will ever witness
If you are interested in almost anything: history, sociology, politics, church music, anthropology, Britain, England, London, modernity, antiquity, medieval anointing procedurals, religion, diamonds, nobility, mad eco sensitive kings, family gossip, Europe, the Anglosphere, the commonwealh, military processions, gold, horses and how much Harry is really balding, you need to watch it
Yes. Quite. Hence why Tesco are using it to advertise their Clubcard deals.
I despise the monarchy, am interested in the coronation, and don't have a TV but wouldn't watch it if I had one.
One especially interesting question is whether this huge propaganda event staged by the current British regime will be successful or not. My guess is it won't be. (Falling incomes, fears for the future, guy centre-stage is an obvious idiot and c*** who can't sign a paper without going off on one, and who visibly has zero "class" when it comes to talking to servants.* Wasn't really like that in 1953.) Big generalisation though. Might be a success in parts of the US market. Unlikely in most of Britain. But there may be some surprise talking points.
* Note: the eco thing is just a distraction and derives mostly from megalomania, and there's probably other stuff with similar derivation that isn't made into a talking point. Think of it the same way as the dickheaded racist arrogance of his father that the press routinely sold as a tendency to make "gaffes".
Those who "care about" the coronation aren't representative of Britain. That's for sure. They're represenative of the Tory party though.
At 51/47 split between care and don't care, even Tory voters aren't that bothered.
Do I “care about” the Coronation? Not really. As I said, until about a week ago I was telling friends I wouldn’t even be arsed to watch it. I cared about our dear old queen out of her sheer longevity. I don’t mind Charles but I don’t especially care about him
Now suddenly I’ve realised what a major unique historical moment this is, full of ancient symbolism AND modern meaning AND salacious gossip writ large - and I’ve accepted I’ll be watching it
I still don’t care about it, really. But I am now interested. A different thing
You know when a page in a book says "this page left intentionally blank", it isn't actually blank is it? Because it now says "this page left intentionally blank".
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
Those who "care about" the coronation aren't representative of Britain. That's for sure. They're represenative of the Tory party though.
At 51/47 split between care and don't care, even Tory voters aren't that bothered.
Do I “care about” the Coronation? Not really. As I said, until about a week ago I was telling friends I wouldn’t even be arsed to watch it. I cared about our dear old queen out of her sheer longevity. I don’t mind Charles but I don’t especially care about him
Now suddenly I’ve realised what a major unique historical moment this is, full of ancient symbolism AND modern meaning AND salacious gossip writ large - and I’ve accepted I’ll be watching it
I still don’t care about it, really. But I am now interested. A different thing
Suggest you think of a question or two about it that for you at the moment are 50:50 and then try to get some good answers out of watching it, always bearing in mind A Crowley's parable of the soldier and the hunchback.
Those who "care about" the coronation aren't representative of Britain. That's for sure. They're represenative of the Tory party though.
Doesn't it show the opposite? Only a third don't care at all. The rest "care about" it at some level.
"Not very much" here means less than a fair amount, i.e. little. Both the question and the options could have been better phrased.
Any idea when the last poll was showing support for the monarchy (Yes/No) broken down by region? I'd be interested to know whether the monarchy is supported by a majority in London or not. (DK/WS excluded.)
54% of Londoners back the monarchy, 31% want a republic. So even the most pro Labour part of the UK still mostly wants to keep the King
Local elections 2023: Red wall set to abandon Conservatives, projection suggests
The exclusive YouGov study for Sky News predicts big gains for Labour, while the Lib Dems could romp home in so-called "Blue wall" seats.
Labour will perform strongest in the Midlands and north of England next week, according to an exclusive new local election projection for Sky News, which suggests the "Red wall" is starting to abandon the Conservatives.
The Tories are also likely to struggle in key bellwether seats elsewhere in England - although the pollster did not expect quite so many Labour gains in key general election battlegrounds further south.
The performance of Conservative councils in the "Blue wall" is also likely to prompt concern among party chiefs, where the Liberal Democrat advances look likely to end years of Conservative control of key councils - with Ed Davey's party on course to make potential gains themselves.
YouGov is projecting the likely result and voting patterns in 18 key battleground councils for the local elections on 4 May, reflecting different types of electoral fights in different parts of the country.
It projects that Labour could be on course for major success in Swindon - a long standing major battleground between the two main parties.
Currently controlled by the Conservatives, the pollster now says it is leaning towards Labour and there will be significant gains to be made for the party in the area.
Itsa poll....... tomorrow a poll will say something else..... People misremember who they voted for. Dubious stats imho.
Generally the more people say a poll is dubious is in direct proportion to them not liking the numbers
It's bollocks though.
How do you think Sunak has climbed from 23-24% to 30-31% over the last 4 months? Black magic?
He has plucked the low hanging fruit. The hard part is still to come. He has to convert lots of the remaining DKs AND keep the populist Right voters onboard.
There was no guarantee that he would have made as much progress as he did. I remember the gleeful comments about his lack of a honeymoon bounce.
Maybe he will make further inroads into Labour's lead, maybe he won't, but he's shown an ability to change the political weather while Starmer still seems to be failing to seal the deal with wavering voters.
Given how severely most people's living standards have been affected by inflation it's kinda miraculous that Sunak has made any progress at all. As a lefty I'm seriously worried.
Well by low hanging fruit I mean Con inclined voters utterly horrified by the Truss debacle. He didn't need to do much to get them back. I reckon half that peak Labour lead was soft and what we basically have now is the half that isn't. This 10 pts or so will really take some shifting. Credit to Sunak for bringing the Cons back into contention but I'll be unpleasantly surprised if the Labour lead doesn't solidify at a level that's more than enough to win the GE. So I'm not worried. Except of course I am. I'm shitting bricks because I've grown used to Tories winning elections. Those 20 pt leads were much more to my taste.
Time for our occasional reminder that Theresa May was 20pts ahead of Jeremy Corbyn less than a month before the 2017 GE, and look what happened to her.
Polls are a snapshot of a particular moment in time, and typically a moment when voters aren't actually giving any thought to who they really want to form the next Government. The entire exercise has all the predictive value of a tarot reading.
Maybe, but being Frank how often do things change so quickly as the May situation or simply be so wrong?
Yes it can and does happen, but is it that likely? So using with a degree of caution is not unwarranted.
Those who "care about" the coronation aren't representative of Britain. That's for sure. They're represenative of the Tory party though.
Doesn't it show the opposite? Only a third don't care at all. The rest "care about" it at some level.
"Not very much" here means less than a fair amount, i.e. little. Both the question and the options could have been better phrased.
Any idea when the last poll was showing support for the monarchy (Yes/No) broken down by region? I'd be interested to know whether the monarchy is supported by a majority in London or not. (DK/WS excluded.)
54% of Londoners back the monarchy, 31% want a republic. So even the most pro Labour part of the UK still mostly wants to keep the King
When Liz Truss took over, the Conservatives were just above 30% on average, and Labour just above 40%. IMHO, that's where the two parties ought to be, barring spectacular cocks ups, such as Liz Truss' "government."
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
I think it would be remarkable if the experience of the Truss Calamity had no lasting effect on the reputation of the Conservative party. These sorts of things should have a political impact for at least a decade
Not forgetting, Love Actually Boris turned out to be a shyster, calamity.
Completely off thread, but completely out of character, I have spent the evening at a karaoke bar. It was tremendous fun. Not like a pub with karaoke - where, basically, the karaoke is there to irritate people. It was just the right size and not at all awful and between each song there was an actual song to which people were dancing unironically. There were some Norwegian fellas who kept asking for cocaine but must surely have had enough cocaine, there was a group of four girls who had not conferred on dress code beforehand, there was a sudden influx of fat girls, there were people dressed for Manchestet on a Friday night, people dressed for work, people dressed for the gym. And everyone seemed delighted to see everyone. If it's of any consequence, I sang "Born to be Wild", which I can do because you don't have to get above a low bass rumble, and "Paradise City", which I gave a good go but has few oppprtunities to breathe and which, on reflection, I should have started in a lower register. I was, by the time I left, the oldest person there by some way. Ah, time is a cruel mistress.
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
My prediction, for what it's worth, is that all the major parties will end up a bit disappointed at the local elections. Labour will gain seats, but not as many as they'd hope for. Conservatives will lose seats, though not as many as their worst fears. And the Lib Dems will make a bit of progress, but not enough. All in all, I'm expecting a pretty dull night with fairly low turnout. And I don't think the results, given the turnout, will tell us very much about the prospects for GE 24.
That’s quite a depressing summary. I’ve taken off Friday so I can watch the results through the night…
I think I remember that about 3/4 of the wards aren't counting until the Friday anyway - so might be a quiet night of projection/speculation.
That's something the government could crack down instead. All counts must be overnight!
"Learn to love ambiguity The need for structure and order is the root of evil
My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
Completely off thread, but completely out of character, I have spent the evening at a karaoke bar. It was tremendous fun. Not like a pub with karaoke - where, basically, the karaoke is there to irritate people. It was just the right size and not at all awful and between each song there was an actual song to which people were dancing unironically. There were some Norwegian fellas who kept asking for cocaine but must surely have had enough cocaine, there was a group of four girls who had not conferred on dress code beforehand, there was a sudden influx of fat girls, there were people dressed for Manchestet on a Friday night, people dressed for work, people dressed for the gym. And everyone seemed delighted to see everyone. If it's of any consequence, I sang "Born to be Wild", which I can do because you don't have to get above a low bass rumble, and "Paradise City", which I gave a good go but has few oppprtunities to breathe and which, on reflection, I should have started in a lower register. I was, by the time I left, the oldest person there by some way. Ah, time is a cruel mistress.
When Liz Truss took over, the Conservatives were just above 30% on average, and Labour just above 40%. IMHO, that's where the two parties ought to be, barring spectacular cocks ups, such as Liz Truss' "government."
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
“Sunak's ratings are reasonable for a PM. It's unusual for a PM to be in positive territory.”
I don’t agree with anything you are saying here, Sean F.
It’s not unusual for someone as PM just six months, and more saner than predecessors, to have a bit of a honeymoon. But there is no reason for it to last anther 16 months and Tories to get anywhere near 30% at the next election. There’s a billion ways Sunak can be hollowed put and the shine turn to tarnished. Not least his own damn fault to over promise and under deliver. His record in government watching over money is absolutely dire - the highest tax take since the country was broke after winning the 2nd World War - incomes and family finances massively eroded - his tax rises and hunts fiscal drag budgets - borrowing and size of the painful debt repayments - a growthless economy - if we finish bottom of G20 beaten by sanctioned to death Russia how is that even explained at election time. Sunak has been at the very heart of creating this disastrous record and his personal contribution to it all, value for tax payer money by fighting waste and fraud is equally as abysmal, an utterly shocking list of waste and failure, eat out to help out, Covid loans fraud - not just tens of billions of tax payer money throw away but funded criminal enterprises, possibly terrorists, by Rishi just handing it out to them - and now huge threat to the UK markets and economy if his Financial Services Compensation Scheme goes the way the silicon valley bank. wherever there has been proper sleaze and government corruption in recent years - lying, bullying, on the make, especially around covid contracts and other schemes enriching government and its friends, Sunak has been at the heart of it all waving things through VIP lanes, signing it off, bad appointments to his cabinet not just standing by them but sitting and working with them. He is a politically inexperienced, accident prone, lightweight, dry rightwing brexiteer. Keep an eye on how Sunak’s and the Tory ratings are certain to decline.
"Learn to love ambiguity The need for structure and order is the root of evil
My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."
there is a psychic need for structure and order in a meaningless world. Not all of us feel it (more on that later). But those who do can feel it to the nth degree.
This is the real root of evil, isn’t it? Greed, yes, but for clarity, not for cash.
(See Leviathan by Hobbes for another example of this.)
Yet just 10% of 2019 Conservative voters are voting Labour too, a significantly lower Conservative to Labour switch than Blair was getting in 1997
That’s just one pollster saying that, other pollsters are saying different - 15%. Our rough chalkboard work this week suggested Blair got less than 15% in 1997 - 15% and lots of tactical voting and a degree of previous Tories going d/k on the way to in the end not even bothering to show up, caused the Tory cataclysm of 1997.
That was our rough chalkboard answer on basis 1997 Tories lost 4.5M Labour gained just 2M - it would be great if there were some official studies into % of switchers at each election and what it done to the result.
Completely off thread, but completely out of character, I have spent the evening at a karaoke bar. It was tremendous fun. Not like a pub with karaoke - where, basically, the karaoke is there to irritate people. It was just the right size and not at all awful and between each song there was an actual song to which people were dancing unironically. There were some Norwegian fellas who kept asking for cocaine but must surely have had enough cocaine, there was a group of four girls who had not conferred on dress code beforehand, there was a sudden influx of fat girls, there were people dressed for Manchestet on a Friday night, people dressed for work, people dressed for the gym. And everyone seemed delighted to see everyone. If it's of any consequence, I sang "Born to be Wild", which I can do because you don't have to get above a low bass rumble, and "Paradise City", which I gave a good go but has few oppprtunities to breathe and which, on reflection, I should have started in a lower register. I was, by the time I left, the oldest person there by some way. Ah, time is a cruel mistress.
...You're Michael Gove?
Good for you.
Yes, it was at the point I realised that I elected to call it a night! Though I have always been supportive of old people enjoying themselves (like Gove) - so feel no particular shame in it. Someone has to be the oldest one there!
I was interested in how many songs sung clearly predated the birth of the singer. A lot of 80s and early 90s from people clearly under 30. A point I often make: culture has largely stood still since the 90s ina way which wasn't really true for the 30 years before that.
"Learn to love ambiguity The need for structure and order is the root of evil
My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."
there is a psychic need for structure and order in a meaningless world. Not all of us feel it (more on that later). But those who do can feel it to the nth degree.
This is the real root of evil, isn’t it? Greed, yes, but for clarity, not for cash.
(See Leviathan by Hobbes for another example of this.)
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
I do enjoy it, though I'm pretty sure 'according to tradition' is a euphemism for 'everyone knows that's shash, but it makes for a good story'.
I actually know a bit about this - and these gospels - and the evidence they were brought by Augustine is actually quite strong. Not conclusive but certainly plausible
I love history. And our amazing country - despite the weather - has more amazing continuous history than any nation on earth, with the possible exception of Japan. And that is largely down to the unbroken history of monarchy since about the 6th-7th century
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
I do enjoy it, though I'm pretty sure 'according to tradition' is a euphemism for 'everyone knows that's shash, but it makes for a good story'.
I'm less sceptical. There's an awful lot of Englamd which survives from 1000 years ago, and a not-negligible amount which survives from the Anglo-Saxon era. It's not that much of a stretch to think St. Augustine's gospels still exist. If they're not the real thing, they're almost certainly, from our perspective, almost as old.
Yet just 10% of 2019 Conservative voters are voting Labour too, a significantly lower Conservative to Labour switch than Blair was getting in 1997
That's because Tony Blair WAS Tony Blair and he'd sealed the deal. Also he had no new Leave political identity to have to grapple with.
“he had no new Leave political identity to have to grapple with”
I would argue Blair had even tougher hurdles, not easier landscape. As he becomes Lab leader the party still has an awful reputation as being mindlessly left wing, in the grip of lefty union barons, the democracy of the party making the leader appear powerless, policy reputation as being weak custodians of economy, weak on defence of our country. It was only a few years before they had the ruinous manifesto promise of taking UK out of Europe. Arthur Scargill sat in the audience at Party conference alongside hordes of genuine lefties. Meanwhile Sunak is no John Major, Hunt no Ken Clarke, and Oliver Witterytwit no Michael Hestletine.
Yes I am copying all this from something else, but it is relevant to what you were saying, no?
I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
Yet just 10% of 2019 Conservative voters are voting Labour too, a significantly lower Conservative to Labour switch than Blair was getting in 1997
That’s just one pollster saying that, other pollsters are saying different - 15%. Our rough chalkboard work this week suggested Blair got less than 15% in 1997 - 15% and lots of tactical voting and a degree of previous Tories going d/k on the way to in the end not even bothering to show up, caused the Tory cataclysm of 1997.
That was our rough chalkboard answer on basis 1997 Tories lost 4.5M Labour gained just 2M - it would be great if there were some official studies into % of switchers at each election and what it done to the result.
Blair in 1997 got 2 million more votes than Kinnock did in 1992. Given the LD vote was down 700,000 on 1992 and the Tory vote was down 4.4 million we can say that almost all those extra Labour votes came from the Conservatives. 2 million being about 14% of the Conservatives 14 million voters in 1992 (the rest staying home or going Referendum Party/UKIP given Major only got 9.6 million votes in 1997).
Certainly on the Yougov figures then Starmer's gain of 10% of 2019 Conservative voters is less than Blair's gain of 14% of 1992 Conservative voters in 1997
I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
Heretic! Burn Him!
Help ! I'm being ambushed by centre-right opponents of order ! ;.)
More seriously, I think the classical idea of metron has a lot going for it. Order as harmony , rather than grids and grinding repetitions of things.
I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
I haven't got round to reading Zola so far. Something to look forward to.
I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
I haven't got round to reading Zola so far. Something to look forward to.
The Belly of Paris is full of marvellous descriptions of the food market in Paris - recommended. Germinal for the marvellous descriptions of mining and working-class life there.
Yet just 10% of 2019 Conservative voters are voting Labour too, a significantly lower Conservative to Labour switch than Blair was getting in 1997
That’s just one pollster saying that, other pollsters are saying different - 15%. Our rough chalkboard work this week suggested Blair got less than 15% in 1997 - 15% and lots of tactical voting and a degree of previous Tories going d/k on the way to in the end not even bothering to show up, caused the Tory cataclysm of 1997.
That was our rough chalkboard answer on basis 1997 Tories lost 4.5M Labour gained just 2M - it would be great if there were some official studies into % of switchers at each election and what it done to the result.
Blair in 1997 got 2 million more votes than Kinnock did in 1992. Given the LD vote was down 700,000 on 1992 and the Tory vote was down 4.4 million we can say that almost all those extra Labour votes came from the Conservatives. 2 million being about 14% of the Conservatives 14 million voters in 1992 (the rest staying home or going Referendum Party/UKIP given Major only got 9.6 million votes in 1997).
Certainly on the Yougov figures then Starmer's gain of 10% of 2019 Conservative voters is less than Blair's gain of 14% of 1992 Conservative voters in 1997
That’s an excellent reply. I have to agree Yougovs 10% is short of Blair’s 14%. But then other pollsters put it at 15% hence Stodge did some back of race card calculus and came to the same 14% you have come to for Blair in 1997.
As I added, that alone didn’t make it bad for Major in 1997, it needed precision tactical voting too. And 1992 Tory voters not voting at all. What % of ‘92 Tory voters does your calculation suggest stayed home?
"Learn to love ambiguity The need for structure and order is the root of evil
My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."
there is a psychic need for structure and order in a meaningless world. Not all of us feel it (more on that later). But those who do can feel it to the nth degree.
This is the real root of evil, isn’t it? Greed, yes, but for clarity, not for cash.
(See Leviathan by Hobbes for another example of this.)
Well yes and no. He's correct that it's an urge, but galactically incorrect that it's exclusively evil: order underpins good as well as bad. He says (inaccurately?) London, Los Angeles, Bangkok are inchoate but the roads will have standardised markings, the lights and the phones to defined standards, the police present and uniformly uniformed. We cannot cope with real chaos and impose order as best we can, sometimes for good, sometimes bad.
He sees a picture conveyed there by a car certified by an engineer to Ministry standards, built to safety standards, in a National Gallery commissioned by a Parliament, designed by an architect, and underpinned by a State. He sees the chaotic tree and ignores the ordered wood.
I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
I haven't got round to reading Zola so far. Something to look forward to.
The Belly of Paris is full of marvellous descriptions of the food market in Paris - recommended. Germinal for the marvellous descriptions of mining and working-class life there.
And not to forget Albines amazing ***** by bizarre ******* using ******** (redacted to avoid spoilers) in the Sin of Father Mouret.
I’ve only read a few Zola books, and the debacle is easily the most enjoyable of them. I liked the description of the scavenged meals, and the fact no one had a clue what was going on, least of all ******** *** (redacted to avoid spoilers). Zola is good at what makes people tick it pulls you in.
"Learn to love ambiguity The need for structure and order is the root of evil
My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."
there is a psychic need for structure and order in a meaningless world. Not all of us feel it (more on that later). But those who do can feel it to the nth degree.
This is the real root of evil, isn’t it? Greed, yes, but for clarity, not for cash.
(See Leviathan by Hobbes for another example of this.)
Well yes and no. He's correct that it's an urge, but galactically incorrect that it's exclusively evil: order underpins good as well as bad. He says (inaccurately?) London, Los Angeles, Bangkok are inchoate but the roads will have standardised markings, the lights and the phones to defined standards, the police present and uniformly uniformed. We cannot cope with real chaos and impose order as best we can, sometimes for good, sometimes bad.
He sees a picture conveyed there by a car certified by an engineer to Ministry standards, built to safety standards, in a National Gallery commissioned by a Parliament, designed by an architect, and underpinned by a State. He sees the chaotic tree and ignores the ordered wood.
It is also very easy for wealthy people to enjoy disorder. They can enjoy the highs and have the resources to avoid the lows. Shocks are easily weathered. But for middle income folks, you need order to plan out your life and shocks can send you spinning. For the poor they can be devastating. Without the funds to enjoy wintering in Aspen and summering in Provence, you take pleasure in your roots, in the trusted rhythms of traditional life. The elite are far too sneering at it.
Yet just 10% of 2019 Conservative voters are voting Labour too, a significantly lower Conservative to Labour switch than Blair was getting in 1997
That’s just one pollster saying that, other pollsters are saying different - 15%. Our rough chalkboard work this week suggested Blair got less than 15% in 1997 - 15% and lots of tactical voting and a degree of previous Tories going d/k on the way to in the end not even bothering to show up, caused the Tory cataclysm of 1997.
That was our rough chalkboard answer on basis 1997 Tories lost 4.5M Labour gained just 2M - it would be great if there were some official studies into % of switchers at each election and what it done to the result.
Blair in 1997 got 2 million more votes than Kinnock did in 1992. Given the LD vote was down 700,000 on 1992 and the Tory vote was down 4.4 million we can say that almost all those extra Labour votes came from the Conservatives. 2 million being about 14% of the Conservatives 14 million voters in 1992 (the rest staying home or going Referendum Party/UKIP given Major only got 9.6 million votes in 1997).
Certainly on the Yougov figures then Starmer's gain of 10% of 2019 Conservative voters is less than Blair's gain of 14% of 1992 Conservative voters in 1997
That’s an excellent reply. I have to agree Yougovs 10% is short of Blair’s 14%. But then other pollsters put it at 15% hence Stodge did some back of race card calculus and came to the same 14% you have come to for Blair in 1997.
As I added, that alone didn’t make it bad for Major in 1997, it needed precision tactical voting too. And 1992 Tory voters not voting at all. What % of ‘92 Tory voters does your calculation suggest stayed home?
14% is at the very top of the plausible range of answers here, because 14% of the 14m 1992 Con 1992 votes is 1.96m of Labours 1.99m net gains.
It says that almost zero Labour net vote gains came either from (a) abstaining 2992 Labour tending voters who didn't like the look of Kinnock or (b) any net gain of 1992 LD voters, given they lost 700k votes - remember the distribution of LD voters was nowhere near as stark as it is now: many solid Labour seats had a 15-20% pool of Lib Dems from which to fish.
It's possible - I say net gain because there will have been BJO types who voted Labour in 1992 and not in 1997, hell there may even have been Lab -> Con switchers, but to think the net directions from LD or DNVs was away from Blair and didn't make up a worthwhile minority of those Labour gained votes is optimistic. I'd cap net Con->Lab switching at 12% of 1992Con tops (1.68m of the 2m votes gained), and indeed argue that a figure just under 10% is probably more likely than it reaching 14%.
I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
Heretic! Burn Him!
Help ! I'm being ambushed by centre-right opponents of order ! ;.)
More seriously, I think the classical idea of metron has a lot going for it. Order as harmony , rather than grids and grinding repetitions of things.
Comments
Sunak has nearly got back to that position, with a swing of about 7.5% from Labour to Conservative, since the start of his premiership. The low-hanging fruit, I think, is getting back to the pre-Truss position. Real progress means closing the gap from that point.
If you were to try and find a historical match, you would say David Cameron. Who formed a Government and put Labour out of power for 13 years.
And I've just joined in.... To be clear, I won't be watching it but I don't give a flying fuck about whether other people watch it or not. That's my last comment on the subject.
I mean, just this, for any history buff, is like crack cocaine:
'The presence of the Augustine Gospels at the King's Coronation affirms their status as the most precious and important medieval manuscript to survive in England.' Wow, amazing news from @CorpusCambridge! …-christi-college.shorthandstories.com/a2f9d2ef-d0e0-…
St Augustine's Gospels were, according to tradition, brought to England by Augustine of Canterbury in 597 - and shown by Augustine to a wary King Ethelbert, who was finally persuaded by Augustine's preaching to accept the Christian faith
I mean, fuckin ell. That’s basically like having Jesus as your best man
https://twitter.com/drfrancisyoung/status/1651970875640500226?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
What we have next Saturday is Ruritania on Acid.
Any idea when the last poll was showing support for the monarchy (Yes/No) broken down by region? I'd be interested to know whether the monarchy is supported by a majority in London or not. (DK/WS excluded.)
"Learn to love ambiguity
The need for structure and order is the root of evil
My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."
https://ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79
One especially interesting question is whether this huge propaganda event staged by the current British regime will be successful or not. My guess is it won't be. (Falling incomes, fears for the future, guy centre-stage is an obvious idiot and c*** who can't sign a paper without going off on one, and who visibly has zero "class" when it comes to talking to servants.* Wasn't really like that in 1953.) Big generalisation though. Might be a success in parts of the US market. Unlikely in most of Britain. But there may be some surprise talking points.
* Note: the eco thing is just a distraction and derives mostly from megalomania, and there's probably other stuff with similar derivation that isn't made into a talking point. Think of it the same way as the dickheaded racist arrogance of his father that the press routinely sold as a tendency to make "gaffes".
Now suddenly I’ve realised what a major unique historical moment this is, full of ancient symbolism AND modern meaning AND salacious gossip writ large - and I’ve accepted I’ll be watching it
I still don’t care about it, really. But I am now interested. A different thing
coronation ie a majority of Conservatives
We’ll see.
How long does it go on for ?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2023/01/12/prince-harrys-popularity-falls-further-spare-hits-
the CEO of bluesky is pleading with new users to not call posts "skeets." this platform might have the juice
https://twitter.com/revrrlewis/status/1651783485609107456
Yes it can and does happen, but is it that likely? So using with a degree of caution is not unwarranted.
Hopefully someone will poll the same question again in a few weeks' time.
I was, by the time I left, the oldest person there by some way. Ah, time is a cruel mistress.
I’m not so interested I will be flying home early from Bangkok, I hasten to add
Indeed at 11am - 6pm Bangkok time - it’s perfect to watch with my first Tanqueray and tonic, as the burning sun sets on Siam
Think of the wonks.
Good for you.
I don’t agree with anything you are saying here, Sean F.
It’s not unusual for someone as PM just six months, and more saner than predecessors, to have a bit of a honeymoon. But there is no reason for it to last anther 16 months and Tories to get anywhere near 30% at the next election. There’s a billion ways Sunak can be hollowed put and the shine turn to tarnished. Not least his own damn fault to over promise and under deliver. His record in government watching over money is absolutely dire - the highest tax take since the country was broke after winning the 2nd World War - incomes and family finances massively eroded - his tax rises and hunts fiscal drag budgets - borrowing and size of the painful debt repayments - a growthless economy - if we finish bottom of G20 beaten by sanctioned to death Russia how is that even explained at election time. Sunak has been at the very heart of creating this disastrous record and his personal contribution to it all, value for tax payer money by fighting waste and fraud is equally as abysmal, an utterly shocking list of waste and failure, eat out to help out, Covid loans fraud - not just tens of billions of tax payer money throw away but funded criminal enterprises, possibly terrorists, by Rishi just handing it out to them - and now huge threat to the UK markets and economy if his Financial Services Compensation Scheme goes the way the silicon valley bank. wherever there has been proper sleaze and government corruption in recent years - lying, bullying, on the make, especially around covid contracts and other schemes enriching government and its friends, Sunak has been at the heart of it all waving things through VIP lanes, signing it off, bad appointments to his cabinet not just standing by them but sitting and working with them. He is a politically inexperienced, accident prone, lightweight, dry rightwing brexiteer. Keep an eye on how Sunak’s and the Tory ratings are certain to decline.
there is a psychic need for structure and order in a meaningless world. Not all of us feel it (more on that later). But those who do can feel it to the nth degree.
This is the real root of evil, isn’t it? Greed, yes, but for clarity, not for cash.
(See Leviathan by Hobbes for another example of this.)
That was our rough chalkboard answer on basis 1997 Tories lost 4.5M Labour gained just 2M - it would be great if there were some official studies into % of switchers at each election and what it done to the result.
Though I have always been supportive of old people enjoying themselves (like Gove) - so feel no particular shame in it. Someone has to be the oldest one there!
I was interested in how many songs sung clearly predated the birth of the singer. A lot of 80s and early 90s from people clearly under 30. A point I often make: culture has largely stood still since the 90s ina way which wasn't really true for the 30 years before that.
If they're not the real thing, they're almost certainly, from our perspective, almost as old.
I would argue Blair had even tougher hurdles, not easier landscape. As he becomes Lab leader the party still has an awful reputation as being mindlessly left wing, in the grip of lefty union barons, the democracy of the party making the leader appear powerless, policy reputation as being weak custodians of economy, weak on defence of our country. It was only a few years before they had the ruinous manifesto promise of taking UK out of Europe. Arthur Scargill sat in the audience at Party conference alongside hordes of genuine lefties. Meanwhile Sunak is no John Major, Hunt no Ken Clarke, and Oliver Witterytwit no Michael Hestletine.
Yes I am copying all this from something else, but it is relevant to what you were saying, no?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ9F3DRSgr8
I was lucky enough to see him play sometime in the early eighties, still remarkable (he was born in 1903).
Is faster version better or slower for capturing dancing gnomes?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbwuBTWx9RQ
I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.
Certainly on the Yougov figures then Starmer's gain of 10% of 2019 Conservative voters is less than Blair's gain of 14% of 1992 Conservative voters in 1997
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2evXiwpeGkE
More seriously, I think the classical idea of metron has a lot going for it. Order as harmony , rather than grids and grinding repetitions of things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1uJPKFhzEE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-1SzkgB5lo
You don’t have to pay much for it on YouTube. It comes cheep.
As I added, that alone didn’t make it bad for Major in 1997, it needed precision tactical voting too. And 1992 Tory voters not voting at all. What % of ‘92 Tory voters does your calculation suggest stayed home?
He sees a picture conveyed there by a car certified by an engineer to Ministry standards, built to safety standards, in a National Gallery commissioned by a Parliament, designed by an architect, and underpinned by a State. He sees the chaotic tree and ignores the ordered wood.
archive copy: https://archive.is/FE7QS
I’ve only read a few Zola books, and the debacle is easily the most enjoyable of them. I liked the description of the scavenged meals, and the fact no one had a clue what was going on, least of all ******** *** (redacted to avoid spoilers). Zola is good at what makes people tick it pulls you in.
Edit. Yay. Free online
https://www.gutenberg.org/cache/epub/56799/pg56799-images.html
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-france-to-aa-outlook-stable-28-04-2023
It says that almost zero Labour net vote gains came either from (a) abstaining 2992 Labour tending voters who didn't like the look of Kinnock or (b) any net gain of 1992 LD voters, given they lost 700k votes - remember the distribution of LD voters was nowhere near as stark as it is now: many solid Labour seats had a 15-20% pool of Lib Dems from which to fish.
It's possible - I say net gain because there will have been BJO types who voted Labour in 1992 and not in 1997, hell there may even have been Lab -> Con switchers, but to think the net directions from LD or DNVs was away from Blair and didn't make up a worthwhile minority of those Labour gained votes is optimistic. I'd cap net Con->Lab switching at 12% of 1992Con tops (1.68m of the 2m votes gained), and indeed argue that a figure just under 10% is probably more likely than it reaching 14%.
"THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ORDERS SUSPENSION UNTIL THE 1ST APRIL 2024 OF THE PUBLICATION OF STATISTICS ON OIL, GAS AND CONDENSATE PRODUCTION - TASS."
https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1651983726413225984
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1652166618552606720
Disorder is not the goal.