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Just 46% of GE2019 CON voters still support the party – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Returning to Liszt, this is an early recording by one of my favourite pianists, the great Claudio Arrau.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ9F3DRSgr8

    I was lucky enough to see him play sometime in the early eighties, still remarkable (he was born in 1903).

    ❤️ Liszt ❤️ dancing gnomes

    Is faster version better or slower for capturing dancing gnomes?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbwuBTWx9RQ
    Though I prefer this dreamy romantic piece. The brilliant ending!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2evXiwpeGkE
    Are you familiar with Messiaen's birds?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1uJPKFhzEE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-1SzkgB5lo

    You don’t have to pay much for it on YouTube. It comes cheep.
    Yes; enjoyable.
    Though the pun flew right past me.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    rcs1000 said:

    I can't personally agree with the idea that the need for structure and order is the root of all evil, even though I would see myself broadly as a progressive rather than a conservative. To me this is another iteration of out current post-modern ideas, of there being no underlying order or meaning to things. I don't think that's right, myself.

    I prefer a mixture of order and disorder. Freedom from structure helps you understand the value of structure, and too much structure helps you understand the importance of the spontaneous and unpredictable ;;) I think Pre-Hausmann Paris must have been the ultimate dynamic modern metropolis in the way people are discussing tonight, though. Some of that comes through in novelists like Zola.

    Heretic! Burn Him!
    In a practical sense, he’s right.
    You’re not going to get rid of planning and planners now, so it’s imperative to educate them in the principles of creating liveable urban spaces.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587

    Russia has decided not to gloat at how well its hydrocarbons industry is doing in the face of sanctions.

    "THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ORDERS SUSPENSION UNTIL THE 1ST APRIL 2024 OF THE PUBLICATION OF STATISTICS ON OIL, GAS AND CONDENSATE PRODUCTION - TASS."

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1651983726413225984

    It's not a very positive indication of a healthy industry, is it?

    (Although it may also help them hide what they're selling to other countries such as India and China, and on the black market.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Russia's Black Sea fleet lost its fuel stores overnight....

    https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1652166618552606720

    Not the only fuel problem they have.
    Thread.

    1/ Six Russian logistics officers have been found guilty of stealing more than 360 tons of aviation kerosene in the Irkutsk region. Each got off with fines equivalent to $627 or less, according to a regional Russian news outlet.
    https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1651966786345091072
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,057

    carnforth said:

    Current council seats, UK:

    Con 6777
    Lab 5849
    Lib 2554

    One year before the 1997 election, after 1996 locals:

    Con 4,276
    Lab 10,929
    Lib 5,078

    How have the conservatives managed to hold on to so many local seats over 13 years of government? And if Starmer wins the general, how many more will they win from opposition?

    2023 might be the year that Labour finally has more councillors than the Conservatives, after 13 years...

    Whisper it but Conservatives are actually pretty good at local administration and delivering value for money?

    I'd argue that in many cases the quality of the councillors is better than the parliamentarians.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-65419362
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Fences installed at the Stade de France for today’s cup final:

    https://twitter.com/_Dan_Austin/status/1652049378016632844
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    The Russians certainly seem to be burying bad news today, but it's hard to know which stories are the ones being buried.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    WillG said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Another great article by Janan Ganesh.

    "Learn to love ambiguity
    The need for structure and order is the root of evil

    My three favourite cities in the world — London, Los Angeles, Bangkok — are defined by a lack of definition. There is no master plan, no architectural coherence, no telling from the look and atmosphere of one street what to brace for in the next. Next to me as I write this is a bottle from Burgundy, my favourite wine region not because it is the “best” but because it is so internally varied."

    https://ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    That truly is an excellent article:

    there is a psychic need for structure and order in a meaningless world. Not all of us feel it (more on that later). But those who do can feel it to the nth degree.

    This is the real root of evil, isn’t it? Greed, yes, but for clarity, not for cash.


    (See Leviathan by Hobbes for another example of this.)
    Well yes and no. He's correct that it's an urge, but galactically incorrect that it's exclusively evil: order underpins good as well as bad. He says (inaccurately?) London, Los Angeles, Bangkok are inchoate but the roads will have standardised markings, the lights and the phones to defined standards, the police present and uniformly uniformed. We cannot cope with real chaos and impose order as best we can, sometimes for good, sometimes bad.

    He sees a picture conveyed there by a car certified by an engineer to Ministry standards, built to safety standards, in a National Gallery commissioned by a Parliament, designed by an architect, and underpinned by a State. He sees the chaotic tree and ignores the ordered wood.

    archive copy: https://archive.is/FE7QS
    It is also very easy for wealthy people to enjoy disorder. They can enjoy the highs and have the resources to avoid the lows. Shocks are easily weathered. But for middle income folks, you need order to plan out your life and shocks can send you spinning. For the poor they can be devastating. Without the funds to enjoy wintering in Aspen and summering in Provence, you take pleasure in your roots, in the trusted rhythms of traditional life. The elite are far too sneering at it.
    You guys are just going to love living in Lagos or Kinshasa!
  • This is horrific.

    A senior female MP was subjected to a social services investigation after an online troll tried to get her children taken from her with a vexatious complaint about her political views.

    Stella Creasy was then told by police that they would not impose criminal sanctions on her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails, because he was “entitled” to the view that her children should be taken into care.

    Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny.

    Creasy told The Times that the police’s reaction gave other trolls a “green light” to target the children of politicians and anyone in the public eye simply because they did not like them.

    The harasser, who used the alias “Lance Jones” and had no personal connection to Creasy or her two young children, had complained about the MP’s campaigns against misogyny and violence against women and girls [VAWG], and her call to be allowed to take her breastfeeding baby into the voting chamber.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stella-creasy-online-troll-called-social-services-on-mp-he-disagreed-with-2pdfrd2cd
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: interesting pole yesterday. Can't recall Leclerc's odds but I think they were double figures.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited April 2023
    tlg86 said:

    Fences installed at the Stade de France for today’s cup final:

    https://twitter.com/_Dan_Austin/status/1652049378016632844

    It was only thanks to the behaviour of Liverpool fans that stopped multiple deaths happening last May at the Stade de France.

    The French, like the Bourbons, have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited April 2023
    Nigelb said:

    .

    This is horrific.

    A senior female MP was subjected to a social services investigation after an online troll tried to get her children taken from her with a vexatious complaint about her political views.

    Stella Creasy was then told by police that they would not impose criminal sanctions on her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails, because he was “entitled” to the view that her children should be taken into care.

    Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny.

    Creasy told The Times that the police’s reaction gave other trolls a “green light” to target the children of politicians and anyone in the public eye simply because they did not like them.

    The harasser, who used the alias “Lance Jones” and had no personal connection to Creasy or her two young children, had complained about the MP’s campaigns against misogyny and violence against women and girls [VAWG], and her call to be allowed to take her breastfeeding baby into the voting chamber.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stella-creasy-online-troll-called-social-services-on-mp-he-disagreed-with-2pdfrd2cd

    “Legitimate right” - WTAF ?
    I am thinking that it does show there might be children at risk, actually.

    The children of the very stupid police officer who decided to take no action. Anyone who thinks that behaviour is OK is a risk to children.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Nigelb said:

    .

    This is horrific.

    A senior female MP was subjected to a social services investigation after an online troll tried to get her children taken from her with a vexatious complaint about her political views.

    Stella Creasy was then told by police that they would not impose criminal sanctions on her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails, because he was “entitled” to the view that her children should be taken into care.

    Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny.

    Creasy told The Times that the police’s reaction gave other trolls a “green light” to target the children of politicians and anyone in the public eye simply because they did not like them.

    The harasser, who used the alias “Lance Jones” and had no personal connection to Creasy or her two young children, had complained about the MP’s campaigns against misogyny and violence against women and girls [VAWG], and her call to be allowed to take her breastfeeding baby into the voting chamber.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stella-creasy-online-troll-called-social-services-on-mp-he-disagreed-with-2pdfrd2cd

    “Legitimate right” - WTAF ?
    This is what happens when poorly trained policeman interpret laws relating to ' rights '. Presumably there are no real crimes in that part of the world for the Police to investigate...
  • Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq
  • Am I being a snowflake or am I right in thinking the Guardian are going down the Leni Riefenstahl route?


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Andy_JS said:

    Why is the Wagner group operating in Sudan?

    They are active right across the Sahel, from Mali to Sudan, partly fighting Islamists and partly profiteering from local governments. Often they are filling the gaps left by the European armies that are also deployed against the Islamists and people trafikers there.

    https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1649471015183851525?t=tkpc7XLBxVrhX7P9qZdzpA&s=19

    It is a war that largely goes unreported. A friend of mine has a son who has done a few tours there with the Belgian Army. There is a fair amount of Pro-Putin feeling in the region as a result amongst those opposed to the Islamists.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    Nigelb said:

    .

    This is horrific.

    A senior female MP was subjected to a social services investigation after an online troll tried to get her children taken from her with a vexatious complaint about her political views.

    Stella Creasy was then told by police that they would not impose criminal sanctions on her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails, because he was “entitled” to the view that her children should be taken into care.

    Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny.

    Creasy told The Times that the police’s reaction gave other trolls a “green light” to target the children of politicians and anyone in the public eye simply because they did not like them.

    The harasser, who used the alias “Lance Jones” and had no personal connection to Creasy or her two young children, had complained about the MP’s campaigns against misogyny and violence against women and girls [VAWG], and her call to be allowed to take her breastfeeding baby into the voting chamber.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stella-creasy-online-troll-called-social-services-on-mp-he-disagreed-with-2pdfrd2cd

    “Legitimate right” - WTAF ?
    I think the point is that anyone can raise concerns to social services, and doing so is not a crime.

    Though it sounds that only a cursory review by social services was needed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    Surely they can just absorb the cost as "efficiency savings" like the state schools so successfully do. Oh, wait...
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    Surely they can just absorb the cost as "efficiency savings" like the state schools so successfully do. Oh, wait...
    Trouble is twofold.

    First, there's no answer to the problems in public services that doesn't involve spending more money or cutting whole services. Not teaching Year 9 for example. Changing the spending to expectations ratio isn't a sufficient answer, but it is a necessary ingredient.

    Second, as an electorate, we've persuaded ourselves that tax rates must never increase. To even suggest it is Electoral Doom.

    So we get gimmicks like this from Labour, or stealth rises from Sunak and Hunt. Not because they're good ways of getting money, but because politicians think they can sneak them past us.

    Once again, we get the politicians we deserve, unfortunately.



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    This is horrific.

    A senior female MP was subjected to a social services investigation after an online troll tried to get her children taken from her with a vexatious complaint about her political views.

    Stella Creasy was then told by police that, they would not impose criminal sanctions on her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails because he was “entitled” to the view that her children should be taken into care.

    Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny.

    Creasy told The Times that the police’s reaction gave other trolls a “green light” to target the children of politicians and anyone in the public eye simply because they did not like them.

    The harasser, who used the alias “Lance Jones” and had no personal connection to Creasy or her two young children, had complained about the MP’s campaigns against misogyny and violence against women and girls [VAWG], and her call to be allowed to take her breastfeeding baby into the voting chamber.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stella-creasy-online-troll-called-social-services-on-mp-he-disagreed-with-2pdfrd2cd

    “Legitimate right” - WTAF ?
    I think the point is that anyone can raise concerns to social services, and doing so is not a crime.

    Though it sounds that only a cursory review by social services was needed.
    If the quote is correct, that isn’t the case.
    “… Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny...”

    Coupled with this “ …her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails…”, there’s a clear patter of harassment.

    The police might have been correct that the level of harassment didn’t meet the bar for a criminal prosecution, but they were absolutely wrong to say he had a “right” to make what seems very clearly to be a vexatious complaint.

    And why did a social services investigation take place as a result of his complaint ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    kamski said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
    In contemporary Russian culture, criminality is pervasive.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Returning to Liszt, this is an early recording by one of my favourite pianists, the great Claudio Arrau.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJ9F3DRSgr8

    I was lucky enough to see him play sometime in the early eighties, still remarkable (he was born in 1903).

    ❤️ Liszt ❤️ dancing gnomes

    Is faster version better or slower for capturing dancing gnomes?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbwuBTWx9RQ
    Though I prefer this dreamy romantic piece. The brilliant ending!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2evXiwpeGkE
    Are you familiar with Messiaen's birds?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1uJPKFhzEE

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-1SzkgB5lo

    You don’t have to pay much for it on YouTube. It comes cheep.
    Yes; enjoyable.
    Though the pun flew right past me.
    It was a hoot, wasn’t it.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    This is horrific.

    A senior female MP was subjected to a social services investigation after an online troll tried to get her children taken from her with a vexatious complaint about her political views.

    Stella Creasy was then told by police that, they would not impose criminal sanctions on her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails because he was “entitled” to the view that her children should be taken into care.

    Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny.

    Creasy told The Times that the police’s reaction gave other trolls a “green light” to target the children of politicians and anyone in the public eye simply because they did not like them.

    The harasser, who used the alias “Lance Jones” and had no personal connection to Creasy or her two young children, had complained about the MP’s campaigns against misogyny and violence against women and girls [VAWG], and her call to be allowed to take her breastfeeding baby into the voting chamber.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stella-creasy-online-troll-called-social-services-on-mp-he-disagreed-with-2pdfrd2cd

    “Legitimate right” - WTAF ?
    I think the point is that anyone can raise concerns to social services, and doing so is not a crime.

    Though it sounds that only a cursory review by social services was needed.
    If the quote is correct, that isn’t the case.
    “… Leicestershire police said that even though he lacked any evidence, the man had a legitimate right to make a social services referral because he disagreed with Creasy’s views on misogyny...”

    Coupled with this “ …her harasser, who also bombarded her office with emails…”, there’s a clear patter of harassment.

    The police might have been correct that the level of harassment didn’t meet the bar for a criminal prosecution, but they were absolutely wrong to say he had a “right” to make what seems very clearly to be a vexatious complaint.

    And why did a social services investigation take place as a result of his complaint ?
    There will always be a social services investigation with this kind of complaint, even if they can see that it is complete nonsense.

    I think there's a case for having clear penalties for making this kind of complaint maliciously, as it can easily traumatise families (as well as wasting others' time). It sounds like this is a clear example of an entirely malicious complaint, so some penalty for the complainant seems entirely justified.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kamski said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
    In contemporary Russian culture, criminality is pervasive.
    No doubt, but you could say that about any number of countries. The issue is surely the violence and war crimes committed by the state.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    Absolute bollocks.

    Private schools aren't businesses and most typically operate on very tight margins where they just about break even.

    Where do the think the extra 20% is coming from if not from the school's reserves or the patents? Thin air?

    Same old Labour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    As far as Labour is concerned all private schools are Eton.

    It shows just how clueless they are.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. Royale, the decline of the cultural wokery?

    Perhaps. But Netflix do have a 'documentary' featuring a black Cleopatra.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    kamski said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
    In contemporary Russian culture, criminality is pervasive.
    No doubt, but you could say that about any number of countries. The issue is surely the violence and war crimes committed by the state.
    Absolutely - which is what I was trying to get at with 'pervasive'. But you're probably correct that such condensations aren't particularly meaningful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Well, this is is twisted. Russia has a new program to take demobilized Russian soldiers from the war in Ukraine, give them 4 days of basic psychiatric support and training on how to be a mentor for kids, then sending them to Russian schools. /1
    https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1652032013518381066
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Mr. Royale, the decline of the cultural wokery?

    Perhaps. But Netflix do have a 'documentary' featuring a black Cleopatra.

    Which seems to be purely because Will Smith's wife thinks there should be more black queens.

    Precisely the wrong way to go about it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kamski said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
    In contemporary Russian culture, criminality is pervasive.
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kamski said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
    In contemporary Russian culture, criminality is pervasive.
    Yes, there are many characteristics of organised crime in the way the Russian state is run. I’d say it’s a closer match than fascism in some ways, though there are certainly plenty of elements of that too.

    - the causal connection between wealth and control of weapons
    - income comes through the control and exploitation of one specific commodity
    - The pervasive use of blackmail and the fear of revenge as a tactic
    - The amoral and largely ideology free nature of power
    - Use of extreme violence to intimidate and cow members of the public
    - Doling out of “punishment beatings” to teach opponents a lesson
    - the ideology of turf and sphere of influence
    - Attempts to corrupt and subvert the machinery of (international) law


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet just 10% of 2019 Conservative voters are voting Labour too, a significantly lower Conservative to Labour switch than Blair was getting in 1997

    That’s just one pollster saying that, other pollsters are saying different - 15%. Our rough chalkboard work this week suggested Blair got less than 15% in 1997 - 15% and lots of tactical voting and a degree of previous Tories going d/k on the way to in the end not even bothering to show up, caused the Tory cataclysm of 1997.

    That was our rough chalkboard answer on basis 1997 Tories lost 4.5M Labour gained just 2M - it would be great if there were some official studies into % of switchers at each election and what it done to the result.
    Blair in 1997 got 2 million more votes than Kinnock did in 1992. Given the LD vote was down 700,000 on 1992 and the Tory vote was down 4.4 million we can say that almost all those extra Labour votes came from the Conservatives. 2 million being about 14% of the Conservatives 14 million voters in 1992 (the rest staying home or going Referendum Party/UKIP given Major only got 9.6 million votes in 1997).

    Certainly on the Yougov figures then Starmer's gain of 10% of 2019 Conservative voters is less than Blair's gain of 14% of 1992 Conservative voters in 1997
    That’s an excellent reply. I have to agree Yougovs 10% is short of Blair’s 14%. But then other pollsters put it at 15% hence Stodge did some back of race card calculus and came to the same 14% you have come to for Blair in 1997.

    As I added, that alone didn’t make it bad for Major in 1997, it needed precision tactical voting too. And 1992 Tory voters not voting at all. What % of ‘92 Tory voters does your calculation suggest stayed home?
    14% is at the very top of the plausible range of answers here, because 14% of the 14m 1992 Con 1992 votes is 1.96m of Labours 1.99m net gains.

    It says that almost zero Labour net vote gains came either from (a) abstaining 2992 Labour tending voters who didn't like the look of Kinnock or (b) any net gain of 1992 LD voters, given they lost 700k votes - remember the distribution of LD voters was nowhere near as stark as it is now: many solid Labour seats had a 15-20% pool of Lib Dems from which to fish.

    It's possible - I say net gain because there will have been BJO types who voted Labour in 1992 and not in 1997, hell there may even have been Lab -> Con switchers, but to think the net directions from LD or DNVs was away from Blair and didn't make up a worthwhile minority of those Labour gained votes is optimistic. I'd cap net Con->Lab switching at 12% of 1992Con tops (1.68m of the 2m votes gained), and indeed argue that a figure just under 10% is probably more likely than it reaching 14%.
    It’s a great post, and I’m not going to disagree. But a gut instinct, if we weren’t such tuned in psephologist, and didn’t know better, is one of the most dramatic nights in UK elections, a “meteor hitting the Tory earth wiping out half of all life”, where Paddy Ashdown suddenly has a brand new hat, magicked from out of nowhere (and hopefully made of tofu), can only be caused by such a small % of switchers? You see what I mean? Hence HY’s original post? And polling showing Starmer’s Lab have 15% of 2019 Tory vote, might not be as underperforming as we thought.

    The psephologist in me wonders if this is because our politics has so long been measured on the swings, particularly swings between the two main protagonists, yet there has never been swings in playgrounds, just roundabouts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    kamski said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
    In contemporary Russian culture, criminality is pervasive.
    Nigelb said:

    .

    kamski said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Russia may deport Ukrainians who did not want to become Russian citizens from their homes in occupied Ukraine starting 1 July
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652151216951148544

    By becoming Russians, they become liable to conscription, refuse and it is deportation to Siberia.

    Between this and rocketing apartment blocks Putin really knows how to win hearts and minds.

    For those who haven't yet seen the report from Stacey Dooley on the Ukranians training here, I highly recommend it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbcthree/article/fcb44c76-a54d-4f12-84f9-1a900de09364
    Russian is a criminal culture. This is a campaign of outright ethnic cleansing and genocide. There can be no peace deal except the 1991 borders because otherwise we are abandoning Ukrainians to this. I hope forcibly conscripted Ukrainians shoot their commanding officiers in the back of the head.
    Can you please give "Russian is a criminal culture" a rest. Apart from it not even being proper English, it is just a silly thing to say and makes me ignore everything that follows.
    In contemporary Russian culture, criminality is pervasive.
    Yes, there are many characteristics of organised crime in the way the Russian state is run. I’d say it’s a closer match than fascism in some ways, though there are certainly plenty of elements of that too.

    - the causal connection between wealth and control of weapons
    - income comes through the control and exploitation of one specific commodity
    - The pervasive use of blackmail and the fear of revenge as a tactic
    - The amoral and largely ideology free nature of power
    - Use of extreme violence to intimidate and cow members of the public
    - Doling out of “punishment beatings” to teach opponents a lesson
    - the ideology of turf and sphere of influence
    - Attempts to corrupt and subvert the machinery of (international) law

    - The use of law purely in service of state power, rather than as any kind of check on it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited April 2023

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    It's a great article, enjoyed it, thanks to Andy_JS for pointing it out.

    Of course, none of us on PB are driven to embrace political dogma - oh no, like the author, we are all so much the other way ;-)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. Royale, quite. I, for one, was shocked that Will Smith's wife was not faithful. To history.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.

    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    It's a great article, enjoyed it, thanks to Andy_JS for pointing it out.

    Of course, none of us on PB are driven to embrace political dogma - oh no, like the author, we are all so much the other way ;-)
    The mild irony of the embrace of 'learn to love ambiguity' by our warriors against woke is also pleasing.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    Fans of Family Guy may be entertained by the Freisler of Guantanamo Bay having a press secretary called Bryan Griffin. He sounds like the MAGA version of the pompous, self important, woke Brian.

    ‘Love God, Limit Government’


  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited April 2023
    What happened in 1997 was that in many seats, the anti-Tory party won. In a good number that was the LibDems. In most it was Labour. Many previous Tory voters just stayed at home because Blair wasn’t scary enough to vote against.

    Looking at the current polling, Lab+LD+Green is taking well over 55% of the vote. Tory+Reform is 35% at best. That’s why it’s hard to see the Tories winning the next GE.

    The locals will tell us less about the mechanics of GE tactical voting because it’s worth voting Green, LD and Independent at local level, but will be helpful in confirming whether the general block sizes the polls indicate are there on the ground.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    The cultural left 'peaked' in 2020 in the sense that this was the point it essentially won; IE it became the establishment/status quo.

    People may look for ways of defining themselves against the establishment/status quo, but that isn't the same is the power of the status/quo establishment fading, to the contrary; in many ways it is getting more entrenched.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    I'm not sure this doesn't help rather than harm Haley ?

    DeSantis allies go to war with an unlikely foe: Nikki Haley
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/desantis-nikki-haley-2024-election-00094496
    ...DeSantis is comfortably in second place in most surveys, trailing Trump but well ahead of the other Republicans in the field. But in recent weeks, he has lost ground, with Trump picking up endorsements from several Republican Congress members in Florida and with some major donors expressing reservations about the Florida governor. Two recent polls of South Carolina GOP voters showed Trump far ahead of the pack and Haley only narrowly behind DeSantis. A survey conducted earlier this month by National Public Affairs, a Republican firm co-founded by Clark, found DeSantis at 21 percent, with Haley at 19 percent. A Winthrop University poll taken several weeks earlier showed similar results, with DeSantis at 20 percent and Haley at 18 percent...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    Data-based analysis for why the tiny handful of Picard Season 2 lovers were so wrong:

    https://www.theringer.com/tv/2023/4/21/23692833/picard-season-3-star-trek-nostalgia-fan-reviews-turnaround
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    darkage said:

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    The cultural left 'peaked' in 2020 in the sense that this was the point it essentially won; IE it became the establishment/status quo.

    People may look for ways of defining themselves against the establishment/status quo, but that isn't the same is the power of the status/quo establishment fading, to the contrary; in many ways it is getting more entrenched.
    It peaked, boy oh boy was 2020 a shit year, but it's now starting to corrode.

    Things can both change and unchange.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    No! No not having it.

    I suggested Ganesh was intelligent person of the left on PB, and I got torn to shreds thinking he was ever of the left. I havn’t forgotten that. If there is any justice in this world you need to be torn to shreds right now.

    We know None of Syed, Phillips or even long time darling of the right Ganesh are voting Starmer at the next election?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    What happened in 1997 was that in many seats, the anti-Tory party won. In a good number that was the LibDems. In most it was Labour. Many previous Tory voters just stayed at home because Blair wasn’t scary enough to vote against.

    Looking at the current polling, Lab+LD+Green is taking well over 55% of the vote. Tory+Reform is 35% at best. That’s why it’s hard to see the Tories winning the next GE.

    The locals will tell us less about the mechanics of GE tactical voting because it’s worth voting Green, LD and Independent at local level, but will be helpful in confirming whether the general block sizes the polls indicate are there on the ground.

    Yes, I suspect that's probably true.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    DougSeal said:

    Mr. Royale, the decline of the cultural wokery?

    Perhaps. But Netflix do have a 'documentary' featuring a black Cleopatra.

    I'm aware quite a few cultural depictions, in drama, art and documentary form, of a very northern European looking Jesus. No one on the right gets all het up about those. Funny that.
    Though doesn’t Blake’s Jerusalem suggest he may have come from Lancashire?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    edited April 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Mr. Royale, the decline of the cultural wokery?

    Perhaps. But Netflix do have a 'documentary' featuring a black Cleopatra.

    I'm aware quite a few cultural depictions, in drama, art and documentary form, of a very northern European looking Jesus. No one on the right gets all het up about those. Funny that.
    Its becoming more of a thing to show a more plausible Jesus. And proponents of Arian jesus cannot reasonably push back if people point out it's not very plausible. But the black Cleopatra's are trying to say its plausible, on the flimsy basis of 'well its possible as we dont know who her mum was'.

    It's a case where an attempted justification for what was, as with blonde jesus, an entirely artistic choice, draws attention and makes it flimsier. Just go like that Mary Queen of Scot film and race blind casting.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Nigelb said:

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.

    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    It's a great article, enjoyed it, thanks to Andy_JS for pointing it out.

    Of course, none of us on PB are driven to embrace political dogma - oh no, like the author, we are all so much the other way ;-)
    The mild irony of the embrace of 'learn to love ambiguity' by our warriors against woke is also pleasing.
    I think you are right. Surely need for structure and order in a meaningless world is right wing and very very Conservative. The living like caveman alternative is just so 1960s hippies dropped out on weed?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    In fairness they are in something of a bind on what to do next given Westminster intransigence, but isn't this 'rethink' the same strategy as before?

    In a rethink of strategy, Scotland's First Minister and the new SNP leader Humza Yousaf wants to focus on making the case for independence because he knows pushing for a vote immediately will be rejected<\i>
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65425495
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790

    Data-based analysis for why the tiny handful of Picard Season 2 lovers were so wrong:

    https://www.theringer.com/tv/2023/4/21/23692833/picard-season-3-star-trek-nostalgia-fan-reviews-turnaround

    Well, it's solid data that Season 3 *was* more popular than 2, but there's nothing in the data to say *why* that is, just speculation from the writer of the article.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.

    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    It's a great article, enjoyed it, thanks to Andy_JS for pointing it out.

    Of course, none of us on PB are driven to embrace political dogma - oh no, like the author, we are all so much the other way ;-)
    The mild irony of the embrace of 'learn to love ambiguity' by our warriors against woke is also pleasing.
    I think you are right. Surely need for structure and order in a meaningless world is right wing and very very Conservative. The living like caveman alternative is just so 1960s hippies dropped out on weed?
    Libertarians on the right (admittedly a minority) are interested only in the structure they build around themselves, and the untrammelled freedom to do so. They don't want anyone else involved.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited April 2023

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    Absolute bollocks.

    Private schools aren't businesses and most typically operate on very tight margins where they just about break even.

    Where do the think the extra 20% is coming from if not from the school's reserves or the patents? Thin air?

    Same old Labour.
    They couldn't run a whelk stall. They have no ides about business.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    'Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey'? You make it sound like the rest of us have yet to see the light.

    The truth is that most (the vast majority) on the left have never bought into the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural left' dogma (e.g. 'sanitising' Roald Dahl books) any more than most on the right don't buy in to the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural right' dogma (e.g. banning Michelangelo's David).

    But it suits us both, left and right, to highlight the idiocies of the others side's extemists.
    It does, but there is also sense to doing so even in a partisan basis. Hopefully it forces those on a particular side to recognise and reject the more extreme idiocies on their side rather than act like some insane stuff is no big deal and adopt it by stealth.

    Left and right need each other as they - they will claim anodyne stuff is crazy, but they'll also claim crazy stuff is crazy. Without that the crazy feeds on itself.

    (Sadly that is about 70% true - the rest things are so far gone pointing out the crazy just makes a side defend it harder.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Fans of Family Guy may be entertained by the Freisler of Guantanamo Bay having a press secretary called Bryan Griffin. He sounds like the MAGA version of the pompous, self important, woke Brian.

    ‘Love God, Limit Government’


    De Santis clearly making links with the right of the Conservative Party. Only really Farage still backs Trump in the UK though
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Mr. Royale, quite. I, for one, was shocked that Will Smith's wife was not faithful. To history.

    It’s a real slap in the face for those who want realistic historical depictions.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,057

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    Absolute bollocks.

    Private schools aren't businesses and most typically operate on very tight margins where they just about break even.

    Where do the think the extra 20% is coming from if not from the school's reserves or the patents? Thin air?

    Same old Labour.
    They couldn't run a whelk stall. They have no ides about business.
    At least they don’t want to f*** business, however.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    edited April 2023
    kle4 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mr. Royale, the decline of the cultural wokery?

    Perhaps. But Netflix do have a 'documentary' featuring a black Cleopatra.

    I'm aware quite a few cultural depictions, in drama, art and documentary form, of a very northern European looking Jesus. No one on the right gets all het up about those. Funny that.
    Its becoming more of a thing to show a more plausible Jesus. And proponents of Arian jesus cannot reasonably push back if people point out it's not very plausible. But the black Cleopatra's are trying to say its plausible, on the flimsy basis of 'well its possible as we dont know who her mum was'.

    It's a case where an attempted justification for what was, as with blonde jesus, an entirely artistic choice, draws attention and makes it flimsier. Just go like that Mary Queen of Scot film and race blind casting.
    I was telling everyone the right take on this the other day at a cocktail party, as I do. There’s been colour blindness in casting on the stage, such as in Shakespeare from RSC, a long time, and no problem at all with it. A Black Romeo with a proper lunchbox will get rave reviews for all the right reasons.

    So is anyone attempting to say, Winston Churchill in film Darkest Hour could not have been played by a Pakistani? Why on Earth not?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    Exactly, Labour's policy won't hit the grand public schools like Eton, Harrow, Winchester and Charterhouse and Westminster where the parents are mainly multi millionaires and the foreign super rich.

    What it will hit is smaller private schools which survive on a tight budget and whose parents are small business owners, police officers, teachers themselves etc who scrimp and save and avoid foreign holidays and new cars to pay the fees
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nigelb said:

    I'm not sure this doesn't help rather than harm Haley ?

    DeSantis allies go to war with an unlikely foe: Nikki Haley
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/desantis-nikki-haley-2024-election-00094496
    ...DeSantis is comfortably in second place in most surveys, trailing Trump but well ahead of the other Republicans in the field. But in recent weeks, he has lost ground, with Trump picking up endorsements from several Republican Congress members in Florida and with some major donors expressing reservations about the Florida governor. Two recent polls of South Carolina GOP voters showed Trump far ahead of the pack and Haley only narrowly behind DeSantis. A survey conducted earlier this month by National Public Affairs, a Republican firm co-founded by Clark, found DeSantis at 21 percent, with Haley at 19 percent. A Winthrop University poll taken several weeks earlier showed similar results, with DeSantis at 20 percent and Haley at 18 percent...

    Haley seems like a much more plausible candidate to take on Trump than DeSantis. She has a proper contrast with Trump because she looks young and different, but also she negotiated the Trump era quite cannily and she can still appeal to people who liked Trump but think it's time for a change.

    Also her state is primary #3, which is a good position to be in: The non-Trump field will probably need Iowa and NH to consolidate since there's one Trump and many non-Trumps, so it's going to be hard for any challenger to score a win over Trump until then.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,794

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    Absolute bollocks.

    Private schools aren't businesses and most typically operate on very tight margins where they just about break even.

    Where do the think the extra 20% is coming from if not from the school's reserves or the patents? Thin air?

    Same old Labour.
    Because private schools are Bad, and are Hoarding Gold like Smaug, and therefore any additional levies can be imposed with no consequences.
    I think that's basically the thinking. That was how it worked 97-2010, anyway.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219

    Fans of Family Guy may be entertained by the Freisler of Guantanamo Bay having a press secretary called Bryan Griffin. He sounds like the MAGA version of the pompous, self important, woke Brian.

    ‘Love God, Limit Government’


    DeSantis is an all-out fascist who wants to dictate what universities teach, uses the law in subservience to state power, and tramples over any groups he doesn’t like. Badenoch should be embarrassed to be in the same room as him.
    Pound to a penny says that she isn't, though.

    Seriously - where is the point that KB would get off the de Santis bus?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    kle4 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mr. Royale, the decline of the cultural wokery?

    Perhaps. But Netflix do have a 'documentary' featuring a black Cleopatra.

    I'm aware quite a few cultural depictions, in drama, art and documentary form, of a very northern European looking Jesus. No one on the right gets all het up about those. Funny that.
    Its becoming more of a thing to show a more plausible Jesus. And proponents of Arian jesus cannot reasonably push back if people point out it's not very plausible. But the black Cleopatra's are trying to say its plausible, on the flimsy basis of 'well its possible as we dont know who her mum was'.

    It's a case where an attempted justification for was, as with blonde jesus, an entirely artistic choice, draws attention and makes it flimsier.
    We went to the (very good) RSC adaptation of Maggie O'Farrell's Hamnet this week.

    Shakespeare's wife and three children were all played by actors who appeared to be mixed race or black. Clearly, that's not historically correct but weirdly it made a lot of sense because in the book the character of Agnes (Anne) Hathaway is very much that of an 'outsider', a person who is 'different' or 'other'.

    Initially, I assumed it was an example of colour-blind casting but on reflection, I think it was a conscious choice by the director.

    I am pretty sure the RSC are not suggesting the historical Anne Hathaway was mixed-raced though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    Exactly, Labour's policy won't hit the grand public schools like Eton, Harrow, Winchester and Charterhouse and Westminster where the parents are mainly multi millionaires and the foreign super rich.

    What it will hit is smaller private schools which survive on a tight budget and whose parents are small business owners, police officers, teachers themselves etc who scrimp and save and avoid foreign holidays and new cars to pay the fees
    If your lot hadn’t crashed the economy there might be money for this subsidy, but there isn’t.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092
    boulay said:

    Mr. Royale, quite. I, for one, was shocked that Will Smith's wife was not faithful. To history.

    It’s a real slap in the face for those who want realistic historical depictions.
    I dont care how realistic a depiction is, unless the makers are claiming realism or theres a cultural trend to so called realistic casting which causes mini scandals like a gay character (not even a real person) being played by a straight actor or vice versa, in which case you need a strong basis for what is claimed.

    If you want to just have creative freedom to do what you want then all the better. Just say so.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited April 2023

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    'Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey'? You make it sound like the rest of us have yet to see the light.

    The truth is that most (the vast majority) on the left have never bought into the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural left' dogma (e.g. 'sanitising' Roald Dahl books) any more than most on the right don't buy in to the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural right' dogma (e.g. banning Michelangelo's David).

    But it suits us both, left and right, to highlight the idiocies of the others side's extemists.
    It has been quite interesting to see, in many ways people just get blown around with cultural winds. The most revealing example was around the Scottish trans prisoner case, all of a sudden transphobia (towards a certain kind of trans person) became acceptable, but no one really thought through about how this impacted on what they believed before, it just got instantly redefined in a cultural moment.

    The right are fighting back and I would expect they will have the insurgents momentum for some time to come.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Fans of Family Guy may be entertained by the Freisler of Guantanamo Bay having a press secretary called Bryan Griffin. He sounds like the MAGA version of the pompous, self important, woke Brian.

    ‘Love God, Limit Government’


    DeSantis is an all-out fascist who wants to dictate what universities teach, uses the law in subservience to state power, and tramples over any groups he doesn’t like. Badenoch should be embarrassed to be in the same room as him.
    Morning everybody!

    There are some very unpleasant people, with rather terrifying views, on the right in American politics. I hope, but I fear it’s a forlorn hope,that the British right will not get entangled with them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    'Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey'? You make it sound like the rest of us have yet to see the light.

    The truth is that most (the vast majority) on the left have never bought into the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural left' dogma (e.g. 'sanitising' Roald Dahl books) any more than most on the right don't buy in to the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural right' dogma (e.g. banning Michelangelo's David).

    But it suits us both, left and right, to highlight the idiocies of the others side's extemists.
    I think this is an example of Margaret Thatcher's maxim that whenever you challenge a consensus you will be fought viciously and opposed every step of the way, until the change occurs, following which it becomes embedded and exactly the same people say it was inevitable and would have happened anyway.

    It requires intellectual self-confidence to go against the consensus of your peers. The difference is Janan is leading the way. Others are following in its wake.

    You don't have it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Cookie said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    Absolute bollocks.

    Private schools aren't businesses and most typically operate on very tight margins where they just about break even.

    Where do the think the extra 20% is coming from if not from the school's reserves or the patents? Thin air?

    Same old Labour.
    Because private schools are Bad, and are Hoarding Gold like Smaug, and therefore any additional levies can be imposed with no consequences.
    I think that's basically the thinking. That was how it worked 97-2010, anyway.
    1997-2010 was a golden period compared to the last 13 years of ineptitude, chaos, scandal, decline and stagnation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,092

    Data-based analysis for why the tiny handful of Picard Season 2 lovers were so wrong:

    https://www.theringer.com/tv/2023/4/21/23692833/picard-season-3-star-trek-nostalgia-fan-reviews-turnaround

    Well, it's solid data that Season 3 *was* more popular than 2, but there's nothing in the data to say *why* that is, just speculation from the writer of the article.
    Sure, but in determining why you look at what was different and draw a conclusion that some or all of those differences was behind it, so it's not an unreasonable speculation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Pro_Rata said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet just 10% of 2019 Conservative voters are voting Labour too, a significantly lower Conservative to Labour switch than Blair was getting in 1997

    That’s just one pollster saying that, other pollsters are saying different - 15%. Our rough chalkboard work this week suggested Blair got less than 15% in 1997 - 15% and lots of tactical voting and a degree of previous Tories going d/k on the way to in the end not even bothering to show up, caused the Tory cataclysm of 1997.

    That was our rough chalkboard answer on basis 1997 Tories lost 4.5M Labour gained just 2M - it would be great if there were some official studies into % of switchers at each election and what it done to the result.
    Blair in 1997 got 2 million more votes than Kinnock did in 1992. Given the LD vote was down 700,000 on 1992 and the Tory vote was down 4.4 million we can say that almost all those extra Labour votes came from the Conservatives. 2 million being about 14% of the Conservatives 14 million voters in 1992 (the rest staying home or going Referendum Party/UKIP given Major only got 9.6 million votes in 1997).

    Certainly on the Yougov figures then Starmer's gain of 10% of 2019 Conservative voters is less than Blair's gain of 14% of 1992 Conservative voters in 1997
    That’s an excellent reply. I have to agree Yougovs 10% is short of Blair’s 14%. But then other pollsters put it at 15% hence Stodge did some back of race card calculus and came to the same 14% you have come to for Blair in 1997.

    As I added, that alone didn’t make it bad for Major in 1997, it needed precision tactical voting too. And 1992 Tory voters not voting at all. What % of ‘92 Tory voters does your calculation suggest stayed home?
    14% is at the very top of the plausible range of answers here, because 14% of the 14m 1992 Con 1992 votes is 1.96m of Labours 1.99m net gains.

    It says that almost zero Labour net vote gains came either from (a) abstaining 2992 Labour tending voters who didn't like the look of Kinnock or (b) any net gain of 1992 LD voters, given they lost 700k votes - remember the distribution of LD voters was nowhere near as stark as it is now: many solid Labour seats had a 15-20% pool of Lib Dems from which to fish.

    It's possible - I say net gain because there will have been BJO types who voted Labour in 1992 and not in 1997, hell there may even have been Lab -> Con switchers, but to think the net directions from LD or DNVs was away from Blair and didn't make up a worthwhile minority of those Labour gained votes is optimistic. I'd cap net Con->Lab switching at 12% of 1992Con tops (1.68m of the 2m votes gained), and indeed argue that a figure just under 10% is probably more likely than it reaching 14%.
    You only get to 12% if you have significant LD to Labour switching from 1992 to 1997 and even then 12% switching from Tory in 1992 to Blair's New Labour in 1997 is more than the 10% who have switched from Conservative in 2019 to Starmer Labour.

    Indeed more have switched to RefUK than switched to the Referendum Party in 1997 and Tory voters just staying home could be even more of a problem for Rishi than it was for Major.

    Starmer does not turn off moderate Conservatives like Kinnock or Corbyn did but he isn't a leader they have much great enthusiasm for either like many of them did for Blair. Indeed for many small c Conservative voters usually Blair was and still is the only Labour leader they have ever voted for.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258

    Am I being a snowflake or am I right in thinking the Guardian are going down the Leni Riefenstahl route?


    Leni’s propaganda was subtle (ish). For straight up demonisation of the “other” you have Julius Streicher
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. kle4, that's the problem. The Netflix numpties are calling it a documentary and having a Macedonian portrayed as black, when the Egyptians aren't even black.

    Mr. Seal, without getting all Byzantine on you, when a character becomes a religious figure you'd be amazed at all not necessarily historically accurate views people have about them....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    Exactly, Labour's policy won't hit the grand public schools like Eton, Harrow, Winchester and Charterhouse and Westminster where the parents are mainly multi millionaires and the foreign super rich.

    What it will hit is smaller private schools which survive on a tight budget and whose parents are small business owners, police officers, teachers themselves etc who scrimp and save and avoid foreign holidays and new cars to pay the fees
    Like my daughter's school - which has sent out a letter to all parents about the threat and it's concerns on the impact on the school, to manage expectations.

    It's a downright idiotic policy, typical of Starmer's tactical triangulation rather than proper leadership, and means Labour are a clear and present danger to my family.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    Exactly, Labour's policy won't hit the grand public schools like Eton, Harrow, Winchester and Charterhouse and Westminster where the parents are mainly multi millionaires and the foreign super rich.

    What it will hit is smaller private schools which survive on a tight budget and whose parents are small business owners, police officers, teachers themselves etc who scrimp and save and avoid foreign holidays and new cars to pay the fees
    If your lot hadn’t crashed the economy there might be money for this subsidy, but there isn’t.
    It was under the premiership of the comprehensive educated Liz Truss that the economy crashed of course
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696

    kle4 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Mr. Royale, the decline of the cultural wokery?

    Perhaps. But Netflix do have a 'documentary' featuring a black Cleopatra.

    I'm aware quite a few cultural depictions, in drama, art and documentary form, of a very northern European looking Jesus. No one on the right gets all het up about those. Funny that.
    Its becoming more of a thing to show a more plausible Jesus. And proponents of Arian jesus cannot reasonably push back if people point out it's not very plausible. But the black Cleopatra's are trying to say its plausible, on the flimsy basis of 'well its possible as we dont know who her mum was'.

    It's a case where an attempted justification for what was, as with blonde jesus, an entirely artistic choice, draws attention and makes it flimsier. Just go like that Mary Queen of Scot film and race blind casting.
    I was telling everyone the right take on this the other day at a cocktail party, as I do. There’s been colour blindness in casting on the stage, such as in Shakespeare from RSC, a long time, and no problem at all with it. A Black Romeo with a proper lunchbox will get rave reviews for all the right reasons.

    So is anyone attempting to say, Winston Churchill in film Darkest Hour could not have been played by a Pakistani? Why on Earth not?
    Some people are just not comfortable with loving ambiguity.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. Pointer, not sure I'd call the financial crisis and the worst recession in British history a golden age, myself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    A 20% increase in fees because the VAT exemption is removed? Well that's just the same as food inflation in the past year.

    Tbh I don't give a f*ck about private schools. I do care about people on the minimum wage who spend most of their income on food, energy and rent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    Nigelb said:

    I'm not sure this doesn't help rather than harm Haley ?

    DeSantis allies go to war with an unlikely foe: Nikki Haley
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/desantis-nikki-haley-2024-election-00094496
    ...DeSantis is comfortably in second place in most surveys, trailing Trump but well ahead of the other Republicans in the field. But in recent weeks, he has lost ground, with Trump picking up endorsements from several Republican Congress members in Florida and with some major donors expressing reservations about the Florida governor. Two recent polls of South Carolina GOP voters showed Trump far ahead of the pack and Haley only narrowly behind DeSantis. A survey conducted earlier this month by National Public Affairs, a Republican firm co-founded by Clark, found DeSantis at 21 percent, with Haley at 19 percent. A Winthrop University poll taken several weeks earlier showed similar results, with DeSantis at 20 percent and Haley at 18 percent...

    Haley seems like a much more plausible candidate to take on Trump than DeSantis. She has a proper contrast with Trump because she looks young and different, but also she negotiated the Trump era quite cannily and she can still appeal to people who liked Trump but think it's time for a change.

    Also her state is primary #3, which is a good position to be in: The non-Trump field will probably need Iowa and NH to consolidate since there's one Trump and many non-Trumps, so it's going to be hard for any challenger to score a win over Trump until then.
    Haley has about as much chance of winning the GOP nomination next year as Jeremy Hunt does of being the next Conservative leader. She also doesn't have the appeal to evangelicals in Iowa Pence does if you want a non Trump non De Santis candidate
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    That frustrating moment when you realise the Opposition are just as clueless as the government about education.

    There are many private schools that will not notice. Eton. Harrow. Roedean. Clifton. Cheltenham.

    There are others that will certainly have to raise fees and may well go bust.

    Almost all in poorer areas. Round here, Denstone may just about survive, but the rest won't.

    Now that may be what is intended. And it's a legitimate debate to have although I think they're going about it the wrong way (you want to eliminate private schools? Cut class sizes in the state sector by a big number).

    But if you take this blind approach to it then you won't prepare for the influx of pupils to a state sector already creaking at the seams. And that will cause far more problems for education than the existence of private schools did.
    Exactly, Labour's policy won't hit the grand public schools like Eton, Harrow, Winchester and Charterhouse and Westminster where the parents are mainly multi millionaires and the foreign super rich.

    What it will hit is smaller private schools which survive on a tight budget and whose parents are small business owners, police officers, teachers themselves etc who scrimp and save and avoid foreign holidays and new cars to pay the fees
    Like my daughter's school - which has sent out a letter to all parents about the threat and it's concerns on the impact on the school, to manage expectations.

    It's a downright idiotic policy, typical of Starmer's tactical triangulation rather than proper leadership, and means Labour are a clear and present danger to my family.
    Private education is like alternative medicine. By all means choose it if you want, but don’t expect the state to subsidise it. With the public finances in such a state, there are other priorities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    A 20% increase in fees because the VAT exemption is removed? Well that's just the same as food inflation in the past year.

    Tbh I don't give a f*ck about private schools. I do care about people on the minimum wage who spend most of their income on food, energy and rent.

    Minimum wage up 10%
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited April 2023

    Mr. Pointer, not sure I'd call the financial crisis and the worst recession in British history a golden age, myself.

    I'd be interested to know how you would classify it as 'the worst recession in British history'?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Private schools will not have to raise their fees to cover Labour’s VAT raid on independent education, the shadow education secretary has insisted, describing claims that the policy would result in widespread school closures as “bogus”.

    Bridget Phillipson told The Times that private schools would be “more than able” to cover the cost of paying VAT without raising the cost to parents or being forced to close.

    She further pledged that the £1.7 billion raised by imposing the tax would be invested in recruiting and retaining teachers particularly in Stem subjects where state schools had struggled to attract specialist graduates.

    The party released figures showing that about half of all computer science lessons at state schools were being taught by staff who had no A-level or degree-level qualification in the subject.

    At the same time more than one in four physics lessons were taught by non-specialists while one in ten maths teachers had no appropriate senior qualification.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/private-schools-can-absorb-vat-without-higher-fees-say-labour-s5c22x0vq

    Absolute bollocks.

    Private schools aren't businesses and most typically operate on very tight margins where they just about break even.

    Where do the think the extra 20% is coming from if not from the school's reserves or the patents? Thin air?

    Same old Labour.
    They couldn't run a whelk stall. They have no ides about business.
    At least they don’t want to f*** business, however.
    Outside of the Brexit controversies the Tories are very supportive of business.

    The cultural/values stuff is properly a bigger barrier than the microeconomics these days, to be honest, but to some extent there's an overlap between the two - and it's a polarising one.

    Business needs to navigate this better, as do politicians.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,794
    kle4 said:

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    'Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey'? You make it sound like the rest of us have yet to see the light.

    The truth is that most (the vast majority) on the left have never bought into the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural left' dogma (e.g. 'sanitising' Roald Dahl books) any more than most on the right don't buy in to the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural right' dogma (e.g. banning Michelangelo's David).

    But it suits us both, left and right, to highlight the idiocies of the others side's extemists.
    It does, but there is also sense to doing so even in a partisan basis. Hopefully it forces those on a particular side to recognise and reject the more extreme idiocies on their side rather than act like some insane stuff is no big deal and adopt it by stealth.

    Left and right need each other as they - they will claim anodyne stuff is crazy, but they'll also claim crazy stuff is crazy. Without that the crazy feeds on itself.

    (Sadly that is about 70% true - the rest things are so far gone pointing out the crazy just makes a side defend it harder.
    It might be that most people in the left don't buy into the craziness, but the craziness still happens. Despite 13 years of Tory PMs, the cultural left is more and more prominent. God knows where we will go once the left are in government again, but Scotland and Wales guve us some clues.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    ..

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    It's a great article, enjoyed it, thanks to Andy_JS for pointing it out.

    Of course, none of us on PB are driven to embrace political dogma - oh no, like the author, we are all so much the other way ;-)
    Sense from reading the article, what point are you trying to make?

    But maybe that is the point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Data-based analysis for why the tiny handful of Picard Season 2 lovers were so wrong:

    https://www.theringer.com/tv/2023/4/21/23692833/picard-season-3-star-trek-nostalgia-fan-reviews-turnaround

    Well, it's solid data that Season 3 *was* more popular than 2, but there's nothing in the data to say *why* that is, just speculation from the writer of the article.
    He literally answers that in the very same article - too many characters, poor development, competing and confusing arcs and boring plots. Etc.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    'Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey'? You make it sound like the rest of us have yet to see the light.

    The truth is that most (the vast majority) on the left have never bought into the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural left' dogma (e.g. 'sanitising' Roald Dahl books) any more than most on the right don't buy in to the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural right' dogma (e.g. banning Michelangelo's David).

    But it suits us both, left and right, to highlight the idiocies of the others side's extemists.
    I think this is an example of Margaret Thatcher's maxim that whenever you challenge a consensus you will be fought viciously and opposed every step of the way, until the change occurs, following which it becomes embedded and exactly the same people say it was inevitable and would have happened anyway.

    It requires intellectual self-confidence to go against the consensus of your peers. The difference is Janan is leading the way. Others are following in its wake.

    You don't have it.
    Do you?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,958
    darkage said:


    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    'Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey'? You make it sound like the rest of us have yet to see the light.

    The truth is that most (the vast majority) on the left have never bought into the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural left' dogma (e.g. 'sanitising' Roald Dahl books) any more than most on the right don't buy in to the more ridiculous examples of 'cultural right' dogma (e.g. banning Michelangelo's David).

    But it suits us both, left and right, to highlight the idiocies of the others side's extemists.
    It has been quite interesting to see, in many ways people just get blown around with cultural winds. The most revealing example was around the Scottish trans prisoner case, all of a sudden transphobia (towards a certain kind of trans person) became acceptable, but no one really thought through about how this impacted on what they believed before, it just got instantly redefined in a cultural moment.

    The right are fighting back and I would expect they will have the insurgents momentum for some time to come.
    Since they seem to have most of HMG and the gamey end of the British press on their side, I'm not sure how far the insurgent tag goes.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Mr. Pointer, I believe the terms used at the time were longest/deepest.

    Are you disputing that Labour ended their last period of office shortly after the biggest recession we've ever had? How would you assess that recession?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    HYUFD said:

    Fans of Family Guy may be entertained by the Freisler of Guantanamo Bay having a press secretary called Bryan Griffin. He sounds like the MAGA version of the pompous, self important, woke Brian.

    ‘Love God, Limit Government’


    De Santis clearly making links with the right of the Conservative Party. Only really Farage still backs Trump in the UK though
    Yep, it’s notable that the freedom-loving Tory right this week embraced both De Santis and Meloni when they made visits here. The National Conservative movement also seems to be gaining a lot of ground, with its interesting views about freedom and democracy. The next Tory leadership contest will be fascinating.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,439

    Also in that Janan Ganesh article:

    We are at the beginning of the end of one such phenomenon. I think the cultural left peaked in 2020. Listen to the derisive connotation of the word “woke” now. Look at newspapers, once all-in on this stuff, edge back a bit.


    https://www.ft.com/content/56b5c04c-6e68-448e-ac9d-3eb6e112fc79

    Search “Learn to love ambiguity” if you’re not a subscriber

    Several intelligent people on the Left have made this journey, Matthew Syed, Trevor Phillips and now Janan Ganesh.

    There will be others.
    No! No not having it.

    I suggested Ganesh was intelligent person of the left on PB, and I got torn to shreds thinking he was ever of the left. I havn’t forgotten that. If there is any justice in this world you need to be torn to shreds right now.

    We know None of Syed, Phillips or even long time darling of the right Ganesh are voting Starmer at the next election?
    Some of your posts I find deeply confusing, containing attempts at seriousness, sarcasm and humour all in one mish-mash.

    What you think in your head doesn't always come out clearly in what you write in your posts.
This discussion has been closed.