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The Tory voter suppression plan appears to be working – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    I see the government has reached its target for 20,000 new police officers, a pledge made in the 2019 manifesto.

    That's pretty shocking. Govt makes good on manifesto pledge is not something you see every day.

    If only the police's reputation wasn't in the gutter this might have positive polling implications for the Cons. It still might.

    They’re measuring inputs, rather than outputs.

    20,000 more officers working on trivial motoring offences and policing ‘hate crime’ on Twitter - while house burglaries, car thefts and street robberies lead to little interest - isn’t going to go down well with the general public.
    Plus there's the new Prime Minister's detachment. On the running machines and Peloton as we speak.
    Oh, and the protestors, where the police were telling people not to touch them the other day.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kamski said:

    2ND like SKS in LE 2023 vote count

    In actual votes cast or national equivalent vote share?

    A very bold prediction if the latter!
    The former

    So now we have SKS Fans on board perhaps I can get an answer on my FPT question

    Ten Weeks ago SKS Party had a 28 point lead according to YG

    Today they have it at 15

    SKS Fans please explain

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/r2r7ejhs5x/TheTimes_VI_230215_W_.pdf
    You are weirdly obsessed. Try posting about something else for a change.

    You are boring.
    Not only boring but stupid. SKS has been leader of the Labour party since April 2020. Does BJO offer an 'explanation' every time the Labour party has improved in the polls in the last 3 years?

    When he became leader Labour were about 20 points behind in the polls. People can demand that SKS fans explain when Labour start doing worse than that.
    Yes, happy to agree on "boring and stupid".
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,818
    edited April 2023
    It makes no difference of course but my late father was on a jury once. 2 girls alleging sexual abuse by a step father. In Scotland we need corroboration so you could only convict on both or none. One of the girls was seriously messed up with drugs etc, possibly because of the abuse but a completely unreliable witness. The other was crystal and the jury had no doubt that she had been abused. So they came back not guilty and not proven in the hope that the second complainer understood that she was believed.

    So it does have its limited uses.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Sean_F said:

    Turnout in local elections is about one third. That one third are sufficiently engaged to have I/D, so I can't see it making any difference.

    Not sure I would generalise to quite the extent you have but it begs the question of what happens in the general election next year.

    On a personal level I'm not voting this year but I'd use my passport if I was. Only problem is that it is up for renewal and I've no idea how long it takes to get a new one nowadays.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    WillG said:

    JohnLoony said:

    The fact that there was only 1 prosecution for voter impersonation does not mean that it is not a problem. The whole point is that we don't know how much it happens, or what size of problem it is, because a lot of it goes undetected. Only hysterical revolutionaries fail to understand this basic common sense fact.

    So you consider the disenfranchisement of potentially hundreds of thousands of voters to be a proportional response?

    This is Trumpian politics.
    How is it disenfranchisement? They can very easily get ID and most have it already. Are people in Northern Ireland who already have this system disenfranchised? This is hardly gerrymandering or making people wait hours to vote.
    Did you not catch my earlier post from Norwich where official Conservative Party literature tells voters in Labour wards they don't need ID?

    The very fact that you are relaxed about the whole affair suggests it is to your party political advantage.

    SKS has not said he will reverse it has he?
    Well according to you he'll never get the opportunity. FWIW you may be right.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Chris said:

    I still wonder whether this is necessarily going to be to the Tories' benefit, given that older people may tend to lack ID, coupled with the fact that normally turnout among older people is probably substantially higher than turnout among younger people lacking ID.

    Has there been any proper demographic analysis to quantify the likely effect on support by party?

    Of course not. It’s too useful a stick to attack the Tories with regardless of the facts.

    Just like they are blamed for not reversing Labour’s extension of postal voting.

    Requiring correct ID is an entirely reasonable things - as recommended by the Electoral Commission in fact
    Oh yes the Electoral Commission. A body that used to be beyond partisan advantage politics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    glw said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Despite looking so similar getting each of those passes has different procedures and levels of scrutiny to obtain it.

    For the over 60s pass you have to provide a passport or driving licence, or if you don't have those you have to go to a Post Office with other ID to get a verification letter with other proofs of ID and address.

    The over 18s pass doesn't need the initial scrutiny, simply sending a photo and filling in a form on a website is enough.

    That's why the over 60s pass is valid and the over 18s pass is not. If the over 18s pass was properly scrutinised it would almost certainly also be acceptable.
    So what? Neither should be required. Voting should be a civil right, not a red-tape ridden process requiring one to jump through various administrative hoops.

    Those going out to bat for this are going to look very stupid.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited April 2023

    Can any literary pbers help?

    When I did my GCSE English literature in 1998 one of the texts was a short story translated from Russian. It was about a boy who is always late for school to the consternation of his teacher who later discovers it is because he spends ages walking through a forest on his way to school.

    The story is a lesson on the wonders of nature and was written in the 'optimistic' years after Stalin's death. I do not remember the name but would be grateful to anyone who can tell me!

    I don't know that particular story but about 80% of the time the answer to "Who wrote that Russian short story?" Is A. I. Kuprin.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Selebian said:

    33 reports of fraud and 1 conviction at GE 2019 compared with 250,000 disenfranchised (presumably predominantly) non-Conservative voters in 2024. In theory it could turn a Labour majority into a Conservative one.

    Nice work if Vladimir Putin is your role model.

    The Govt has not disenfranchised anyone.
    It's at least arguable:
    - People without ID were able to vote
    - People without ID are now not able to vote

    That looks like disenfranchisement. Of course, people could take action to avoid being disenfranchised, but I'm not sure that enough was done to make the requirement obvious. They have at least introduced it for locals rather than a GE.
    Not sure they could make it much more obvious?


  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    JohnLoony said:

    The fact that there was only 1 prosecution for voter impersonation does not mean that it is not a problem. The whole point is that we don't know how much it happens, or what size of problem it is, because a lot of it goes undetected. Only hysterical revolutionaries fail to understand this basic common sense fact.

    WOW! Blast from the past. Nice to see you Mr Loony :D
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    A little perspective - these are the people least likely to have access to voter id:



    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9187/CBP-9187.pdf
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    33 reports of fraud and 1 conviction at GE 2019 compared with 250,000 disenfranchised (presumably predominantly) non-Conservative voters in 2024. In theory it could turn a Labour majority into a Conservative one.

    Nice work if Vladimir Putin is your role model.

    The Govt has not disenfranchised anyone.
    It's at least arguable:
    - People without ID were able to vote
    - People without ID are now not able to vote

    That looks like disenfranchisement. Of course, people could take action to avoid being disenfranchised, but I'm not sure that enough was done to make the requirement obvious. They have at least introduced it for locals rather than a GE.
    Although I think the problem being addressed is miniscule but the 'solution' probably not causing major issues either (but more issues than the thing it supposedly 'fixes'). Although I might be shown to be wrong on 'not causing major issues'.
    I'm sure that plenty of left wing activists will be performatively "denied" the right to vote.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Chris said:

    I still wonder whether this is necessarily going to be to the Tories' benefit, given that older people may tend to lack ID, coupled with the fact that normally turnout among older people is probably substantially higher than turnout among younger people lacking ID.

    Has there been any proper demographic analysis to quantify the likely effect on support by party?

    Of course not. It’s too useful a stick to attack the Tories with regardless of the facts.

    Just like they are blamed for not reversing Labour’s extension of postal voting.

    Requiring correct ID is an entirely reasonable things - as recommended by the Electoral Commission in fact
    Oh yes the Electoral Commission. A body that used to be beyond partisan advantage politics.
    The days before they spent six figures of public money going after Darren Grimes.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    edited April 2023

    glw said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Despite looking so similar getting each of those passes has different procedures and levels of scrutiny to obtain it.

    For the over 60s pass you have to provide a passport or driving licence, or if you don't have those you have to go to a Post Office with other ID to get a verification letter with other proofs of ID and address.

    The over 18s pass doesn't need the initial scrutiny, simply sending a photo and filling in a form on a website is enough.

    That's why the over 60s pass is valid and the over 18s pass is not. If the over 18s pass was properly scrutinised it would almost certainly also be acceptable.
    So what? Neither should be required. Voting should be a civil right, not a red-tape ridden process requiring one to jump through various administrative hoops.

    Those going out to bat for this are going to look very stupid.
    I never voiced an opinion on whether or not it is a good idea. I'm merely pointing out that people who think those two passes are basically the same because they look similar are wrong, and banging on about it even though it has been repeatedly explained on here makes people look very stupid.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    A little perspective - these are the people least likely to have access to voter id:



    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9187/CBP-9187.pdf

    Surely the unemployed need ID to “sign on”?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    That tweet in the header is utterly stupid. The 3% figure is just the proportion of those who didn't have ID with 1 day to go, who now do. It's relevant to precisely nothing.

    2 million don't have suitable Id that allows them to vote.
    70,000 have discovered the fact in time to get suitable ID

    there are 1,930,000 people who may turn up at the polling station to discover they've been disenfranchised.
    With their poll card?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Chris said:

    I still wonder whether this is necessarily going to be to the Tories' benefit, given that older people may tend to lack ID, coupled with the fact that normally turnout among older people is probably substantially higher than turnout among younger people lacking ID.

    Has there been any proper demographic analysis to quantify the likely effect on support by party?

    I could easily see a situation where the old couple stroll down to their local station to vote Conservative, as they always have done, with their polling card in hand, as they always have done.
    .
    The polling card that says "you must have photo ID to vote"?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Sean_F said:

    Turnout in local elections is about one third. That one third are sufficiently engaged to have I/D, so I can't see it making any difference.

    Not sure I would generalise to quite the extent you have but it begs the question of what happens in the general election next year.

    On a personal level I'm not voting this year but I'd use my passport if I was. Only problem is that it is up for renewal and I've no idea how long it takes to get a new one nowadays.
    Expired passports are ok as long as you still look like the photo.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    rcs1000 said:

    A large number of 538 employees are being let go, likely including Nate Silver

    https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1650899579234140168?s=46&t=bneQ7jbmSyPWBrSchhqwTw

    If I read the Tweet correctly, he's not planning on staying beyond the end of his contract.

    I have a friend who's very senior at Disney, I hope he survives this.
    Don't worry, they'll never get rid of Mickey.
    How very DARE everyone not shower this with likes, it is clearly the funniest comment going on PB today.

    :lol:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    DavidL said:

    It makes no difference of course but my late father was on a jury once. 2 girls alleging sexual abuse by a step father. In Scotland we need corroboration so you could only convict on both or none. One of the girls was seriously messed up with drugs etc, possibly because of the abuse but a completely unreliable witness. The other was crystal and the jury had no doubt that she had been abused. So they came back not guilty and not proven in the hope that the second complainer understood that she was believed.

    So it does have its limited uses.
    If you don't have the middle choice available you're pushed to go Guilty or Not Guilty. Hence there will be more of both of those. And given a Guilty is the only verdict leading to conviction this change on the face of it will improve the conviction stats. Is this the main driver of it iyo?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    British and German QRA Typhoon fighter aircraft, chasing bears out of the Baltic Sea again.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/26/british-nato-fighter-jets-russian-warplanes-baltic-sea/
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Driver said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    That tweet in the header is utterly stupid. The 3% figure is just the proportion of those who didn't have ID with 1 day to go, who now do. It's relevant to precisely nothing.

    2 million don't have suitable Id that allows them to vote.
    70,000 have discovered the fact in time to get suitable ID

    there are 1,930,000 people who may turn up at the polling station to discover they've been disenfranchised.
    With their poll card?
    Polling cards are not a valid form of ID according to the law.

    The Government overrode the electoral commission who said requiring the card to be presented would be more than enough verification.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    glw said:

    glw said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Despite looking so similar getting each of those passes has different procedures and levels of scrutiny to obtain it.

    For the over 60s pass you have to provide a passport or driving licence, or if you don't have those you have to go to a Post Office with other ID to get a verification letter with other proofs of ID and address.

    The over 18s pass doesn't need the initial scrutiny, simply sending a photo and filling in a form on a website is enough.

    That's why the over 60s pass is valid and the over 18s pass is not. If the over 18s pass was properly scrutinised it would almost certainly also be acceptable.
    So what? Neither should be required. Voting should be a civil right, not a red-tape ridden process requiring one to jump through various administrative hoops.

    Those going out to bat for this are going to look very stupid.
    I never voiced an opinion on whether or not it is a good idea. I'm merely pointing out that people who think those two passes are basically the same because they look similar are wrong, and banging on about it even though it has been repeatedly explained on here makes people look very stupid.
    Especially if it makes someone feel ‘sick’
  • JohnLoony said:

    The fact that there was only 1 prosecution for voter impersonation does not mean that it is not a problem. The whole point is that we don't know how much it happens, or what size of problem it is, because a lot of it goes undetected. Only hysterical revolutionaries fail to understand this basic common sense fact.

    But tax fraud is a known problem, yet there is no requirement for a company registering for VAT in the UK to prove they actually exist at that address. (see recent case of 11,000 Chinese companies sharing an address in Cardiff)
    Tory double standards.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Not seen this video before.

    Dame Edna on Wogan with Mr and Mrs Trump.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKphnyDkNqY

    Donald does his usual thing of the time about how the US is being taking advantage of by Japan etc.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,252

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited April 2023
    eek said:

    Driver said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    That tweet in the header is utterly stupid. The 3% figure is just the proportion of those who didn't have ID with 1 day to go, who now do. It's relevant to precisely nothing.

    2 million don't have suitable Id that allows them to vote.
    70,000 have discovered the fact in time to get suitable ID

    there are 1,930,000 people who may turn up at the polling station to discover they've been disenfranchised.
    With their poll card?
    Polling cards are not a valid form of ID according to the law.
    Yes, but that's not my point. See the photos upthread - if you have a poll card you know you need photo ID.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Dura_Ace said:

    Can any literary pbers help?

    When I did my GCSE English literature in 1998 one of the texts was a short story translated from Russian. It was about a boy who is always late for school to the consternation of his teacher who later discovers it is because he spends ages walking through a forest on his way to school.

    The story is a lesson on the wonders of nature and was written in the 'optimistic' years after Stalin's death. I do not remember the name but would be grateful to anyone who can tell me!

    I don't know that particular story but about 80% of the time the answer to "Who wrote that Russian short story?" Is A. I. Kuprin.
    Thanks but he is too old. I'm sure it was written in the 50s.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,252
    JohnLoony said:

    The fact that there was only 1 prosecution for voter impersonation does not mean that it is not a problem. The whole point is that we don't know how much it happens, or what size of problem it is, because a lot of it goes undetected. Only hysterical revolutionaries fail to understand this basic common sense fact.

    Welcome back!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:



    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,630

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    It should all be digitised so that people can produce their voter ID card from their Apple Wallets. ;)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @MrHarryCole
    2m
    Scooplet: Andrew Bridgen has been expelled from the Conservative Party over the vaccine/holocaust tweet.

    Kicked out on 12 April, has 28 days to appeal...

    Rumour mill says he wants to join Reclaim/Laurence Fox outfit..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases. The government has simply decided that one type of 'proof' is unsuitable.

    I wonder why?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    2m
    Scooplet: Andrew Bridgen has been expelled from the Conservative Party over the vaccine/holocaust tweet.

    Kicked out on 12 April, has 28 days to appeal...

    Rumour mill says he wants to join Reclaim/Laurence Fox outfit..

    Has he got his GB News gig lined up to keep the wolf from the door?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @paulwaugh
    The final figures are in: just 63,279 people met last night's 5pm deadline to apply for new Voter ID.

    That's a tiny 3% of the 2 MILLION people who lack the right ID to vote under the Govt's new rules.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1651126548680830976
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:

    [misleading photo]

    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Yes, it's definitely led to a lot of disingenuous partisan complaints from people who think their side will be adversely affected.

    As for me, I've wanted this since long before the Electoral Commission recommended it, and I don't care which party is putting it forward. Doing something about postal votes needs to be next.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Scott_xP said:

    @paulwaugh
    The final figures are in: just 63,279 people met last night's 5pm deadline to apply for new Voter ID.

    That's a tiny 3% of the 2 MILLION people who lack the right ID to vote under the Govt's new rules.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1651126548680830976

    Wow, Scotty can even copy/paste a tweet that is the basis of the thread header!
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    Just wondering... Are the Tories planning to have tellers at the polling stations this year?

    If there are electors who are turned away for lack of voter ID, it would be unfair of them to vent their anger at polling station staff, the police or tellers representing other parties, wouldn't it?

    Have the Tories given their tellers a proper briefing - and even made an attempt to carry out a risk management appraisal?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Absolutely astonishing.

    Cravenly dumping on someone because they simply pointed out a violent rapist is male.


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    2m
    Scooplet: Andrew Bridgen has been expelled from the Conservative Party over the vaccine/holocaust tweet.

    Kicked out on 12 April, has 28 days to appeal...

    Rumour mill says he wants to join Reclaim/Laurence Fox outfit..

    A significant step forward in making the Conservatives less offensive to mainstream voters.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    WillG said:

    JohnLoony said:

    The fact that there was only 1 prosecution for voter impersonation does not mean that it is not a problem. The whole point is that we don't know how much it happens, or what size of problem it is, because a lot of it goes undetected. Only hysterical revolutionaries fail to understand this basic common sense fact.

    So you consider the disenfranchisement of potentially hundreds of thousands of voters to be a proportional response?

    This is Trumpian politics.
    How is it disenfranchisement? They can very easily get ID and most have it already. Are people in Northern Ireland who already have this system disenfranchised? This is hardly gerrymandering or making people wait hours to vote.
    Did you not catch my earlier post from Norwich where official Conservative Party literature tells voters in Labour wards they don't need ID?

    The very fact that you are relaxed about the whole affair suggests it is to your party political advantage.
    SKS has not said he will reverse it has he?
    SKS fans please explain.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    2m
    Scooplet: Andrew Bridgen has been expelled from the Conservative Party over the vaccine/holocaust tweet.

    Kicked out on 12 April, has 28 days to appeal...

    Rumour mill says he wants to join Reclaim/Laurence Fox outfit..

    A significant step forward in making the Conservatives less offensive to mainstream voters.
    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Chris Pincher will be standing down at the next election, Sky News understands.

    Mr Pincher was elected as a Conservative MP in 2010, but has sat as an independent after allegations of sexual misconduct were made in June last year.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:

    [misleading photo]

    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Yes, it's definitely led to a lot of disingenuous partisan complaints from people who think their side will be adversely affected.

    As for me, I've wanted this since long before the Electoral Commission recommended it, and I don't care which party is putting it forward. Doing something about postal votes needs to be next.
    Why do those partisan complainers think their side will be adversely affected?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    edited April 2023
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
    You need to provide:

    Active email address
    Student enrolment ID from your school, college or university
    London borough address
    Digital photo which must be a .jpg, .bmp or .gif file and less than 6MB
    You pay an administration fee of £20 using a credit or debit card.


    We'll post your 18+ Student Oyster photocard to you ***once your school, college or university has approved your application***.

    Actually rather a lot of things you and indeed your college need to provide to prove your identity – they might be different to a passport, just as a passport is different to a driving licence.

    Yet to claim one doesn't need to prove one's identity to get a Student Oyster is demonstrable garbage.

    Funny old world.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    Selebian said:

    Off topic: Why does Ed Sheeran go to the same barber as Boris Johnson?

    I went to the same barber as my dad for several years :wink:

    (most definitely not an allegation of paternity, just an observation on my experiences)
    My dad and I used the same barber for years, and it was quite an unusual one as it was a combined barber shop and railway bookshop. He retired a few years back, sadly, as I really wanted my son to get a haircut there.

    He seemed to know everyone in the city.
    A barber for those interested in a different kind of mullet:

    https://revolutiontrains.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/DC967594_YLA_Mullet_PB_Northampton_30-07-1983-1320x691.jpg
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    kamski said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:

    [misleading photo]

    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Yes, it's definitely led to a lot of disingenuous partisan complaints from people who think their side will be adversely affected.

    As for me, I've wanted this since long before the Electoral Commission recommended it, and I don't care which party is putting it forward. Doing something about postal votes needs to be next.
    Why do those partisan complainers think their side will be adversely affected?
    That's a good question because, as best as I can tell, there's no good evidence for it.

    I think the logic (for want of a better word) goes: "Tories are evil, therefore they must be doing this because they will benefit from it, therefore this is voter suppression".
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190
    eek said:

    Driver said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    That tweet in the header is utterly stupid. The 3% figure is just the proportion of those who didn't have ID with 1 day to go, who now do. It's relevant to precisely nothing.

    2 million don't have suitable Id that allows them to vote.
    70,000 have discovered the fact in time to get suitable ID

    there are 1,930,000 people who may turn up at the polling station to discover they've been disenfranchised.
    With their poll card?
    Polling cards are not a valid form of ID according to the law.

    The Government overrode the electoral commission who said requiring the card to be presented would be more than enough verification.
    Did the electoral commission say that? It would certainly make the whole thing a lot more reasonable.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    kamski said:

    Chris said:

    I still wonder whether this is necessarily going to be to the Tories' benefit, given that older people may tend to lack ID, coupled with the fact that normally turnout among older people is probably substantially higher than turnout among younger people lacking ID.

    Has there been any proper demographic analysis to quantify the likely effect on support by party?

    Of course not. It’s too useful a stick to attack the Tories with regardless of the facts.

    Just like they are blamed for not reversing Labour’s extension of postal voting.

    Requiring correct ID is an entirely reasonable things - as recommended by the Electoral Commission in fact
    The Electoral Commission recommended it not because they found any personation happening. Their reasoning was that some voters were worried about the integrity of the voting system, and that voter ID would reassure them.

    Now, I have only ever heard people worry about the result of an election because of dodgy postal voting, never because of personation at a polling station, so it seems illogical to try and reassure people by doing nothing about postal voting where the worries actually are.

    Secondly, I reckon this botched partisan introduction of photo ID for voting in person has already done much more to damage the reputation of the voting system than any concerns people supposedly had about personation in polling stations.
    Indeed. QED.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Sean_F said:

    Turnout in local elections is about one third. That one third are sufficiently engaged to have I/D, so I can't see it making any difference.

    Not sure I would generalise to quite the extent you have but it begs the question of what happens in the general election next year.

    On a personal level I'm not voting this year but I'd use my passport if I was. Only problem is that it is up for renewal and I've no idea how long it takes to get a new one nowadays.
    I applied for one earlier this year, late January, from abroad. I was surprised that it only took between 2 and 3 weeks for the new one to be delivered. My surprise was that it is black, not at all like the blue of the old passports.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2023
    Taz said:

    One should add the just because OGH says it's voter suppression doesn't mean.
    It is.... the Thread header is not Gospel.

    Did not Bart post a link showing this was recommended by the Electoral Comission, hardly a bastion of the Tory Party.

    As an aside Parties do promote policies aimed at their electoral advantage. The Lib Dems want PR, Labour votes for 16 and 17 year olds.
    It was originally driven by the Electoral Commission in 2014, but they look to be in damage limitation mode and are disassociating themselves from the idea.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    kamski said:

    eek said:

    Driver said:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:

    That tweet in the header is utterly stupid. The 3% figure is just the proportion of those who didn't have ID with 1 day to go, who now do. It's relevant to precisely nothing.

    2 million don't have suitable Id that allows them to vote.
    70,000 have discovered the fact in time to get suitable ID

    there are 1,930,000 people who may turn up at the polling station to discover they've been disenfranchised.
    With their poll card?
    Polling cards are not a valid form of ID according to the law.

    The Government overrode the electoral commission who said requiring the card to be presented would be more than enough verification.
    Did the electoral commission say that? It would certainly make the whole thing a lot more reasonable.
    The obvious solution is to print the photo on the poll card. I got a poll card last month for a previous resident of my current flat, should I have been able to use that to vote?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Driver said:

    kamski said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:

    [misleading photo]

    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Yes, it's definitely led to a lot of disingenuous partisan complaints from people who think their side will be adversely affected.

    As for me, I've wanted this since long before the Electoral Commission recommended it, and I don't care which party is putting it forward. Doing something about postal votes needs to be next.
    Why do those partisan complainers think their side will be adversely affected?
    That's a good question because, as best as I can tell, there's no good evidence for it.

    I think the logic (for want of a better word) goes: "Tories are evil, therefore they must be doing this because they will benefit from it, therefore this is voter suppression".
    LOL. Whatever gets you through the night.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    eristdoof said:

    Sean_F said:

    Turnout in local elections is about one third. That one third are sufficiently engaged to have I/D, so I can't see it making any difference.

    Not sure I would generalise to quite the extent you have but it begs the question of what happens in the general election next year.

    On a personal level I'm not voting this year but I'd use my passport if I was. Only problem is that it is up for renewal and I've no idea how long it takes to get a new one nowadays.
    I applied for one earlier this year, late January, from abroad. I was surprised that it only took between 2 and 3 weeks for the new one to be delivered. My surprise was that it is black, not at all like the blue of the old passports.
    Look at it on a black background under direct natural light, you'll see it's very dark blue.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,252
    edited April 2023

    Chris said:

    I still wonder whether this is necessarily going to be to the Tories' benefit, given that older people may tend to lack ID, coupled with the fact that normally turnout among older people is probably substantially higher than turnout among younger people lacking ID.

    Has there been any proper demographic analysis to quantify the likely effect on support by party?

    Of course not. It’s too useful a stick to attack the Tories with regardless of the facts.

    Just like they are blamed for not reversing Labour’s extension of postal voting.

    Requiring correct ID is an entirely reasonable things - as recommended by the Electoral Commission in fact
    Oh yes the Electoral Commission. A body that used to be beyond partisan advantage politics.
    Well there are 10 commissioners, 4 of which are appointed to represent political parties (I can see 1 Tory and 1 “smaller parties” representative who was ex SDLP).

    The rest look like pretty average senior establishment figures - former head of UK Statistics, etc.

    I’m pretty impressed that 1 Tory can bend the entire Electoral Commission to his will!

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/about-us/commissioners/our-commissioners
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited April 2023
    .

    Chris said:

    I still wonder whether this is necessarily going to be to the Tories' benefit, given that older people may tend to lack ID, coupled with the fact that normally turnout among older people is probably substantially higher than turnout among younger people lacking ID.

    Has there been any proper demographic analysis to quantify the likely effect on support by party?

    Of course not. It’s too useful a stick to attack the Tories with regardless of the facts.

    Just like they are blamed for not reversing Labour’s extension of postal voting.

    Requiring correct ID is an entirely reasonable things - as recommended by the Electoral Commission in fact
    Individual voter registration, and voter ID, both came originally from the Electoral Commission, following that famous 2005 trial where Richard Mawrey QC, the commissioner, said: "Anybody who has sat through the case I have just tried and listened to evidence of electoral fraud that would disgrace a banana republic would find this statement surprising."
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    kamski said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:

    [misleading photo]

    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Yes, it's definitely led to a lot of disingenuous partisan complaints from people who think their side will be adversely affected.

    As for me, I've wanted this since long before the Electoral Commission recommended it, and I don't care which party is putting it forward. Doing something about postal votes needs to be next.
    Why do those partisan complainers think their side will be adversely affected?
    Partisan complainers rarely complain that their side has benefitted from a change.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,818
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    It makes no difference of course but my late father was on a jury once. 2 girls alleging sexual abuse by a step father. In Scotland we need corroboration so you could only convict on both or none. One of the girls was seriously messed up with drugs etc, possibly because of the abuse but a completely unreliable witness. The other was crystal and the jury had no doubt that she had been abused. So they came back not guilty and not proven in the hope that the second complainer understood that she was believed.

    So it does have its limited uses.
    If you don't have the middle choice available you're pushed to go Guilty or Not Guilty. Hence there will be more of both of those. And given a Guilty is the only verdict leading to conviction this change on the face of it will improve the conviction stats. Is this the main driver of it iyo?
    Yes. I think that some believe that it is a bit of a cop out for the jury. Whether they are right about that is hard to tell. Dundee juries used to be fairly notorious for not proven verdicts, especially on a Friday!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    Sandpit said:

    A little perspective - these are the people least likely to have access to voter id:



    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9187/CBP-9187.pdf

    Surely the unemployed need ID to “sign on”?
    No, I signed on after losing my seat. No phot-ID was requested (or any ID, IIRC).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    Elections have got to do two things from a fairness point of view. They have to actually be fair, and they have to be seen to be fair.

    Take the personation thing that is said to be driving these changes. Nobody sane thinks there is a real problem (lack of prosecutions, huge difficulty of faking enough votes to tip a result). And problems with postal votes are rightly seen as a bigger issue. But being seen to be fair is a valid reason to tighten things up.

    But the way the government have gone about it is seen as unfair, partly because of the way that a lot of older people's IDs are being waved through in a way that younger people's ID isn't. And it probably will end up making election results less reflective of the will of the people than they otherwise would be.

    Oh, and the "but the Electoral Commission advice" excuse rather went down the toilet when the EC said "please delay this because councils aren't ready";

    https://www.ft.com/content/3f82a61b-4c51-4d84-8997-ec767f2d34cd

    Whether it's an effective scam by the government, or is one that sees them shooting themselves in the foot, we shall see. Doesn't stop it looking like a scam.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    2m
    Scooplet: Andrew Bridgen has been expelled from the Conservative Party over the vaccine/holocaust tweet.

    Kicked out on 12 April, has 28 days to appeal...

    Rumour mill says he wants to join Reclaim/Laurence Fox outfit..

    Hopefully the beginning of the end for this weirdo and his political career. Fingers crossed the voters of North West Leicestershire do their duty in Election 24 and rid us of this odd ball...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    2m
    Scooplet: Andrew Bridgen has been expelled from the Conservative Party over the vaccine/holocaust tweet.

    Kicked out on 12 April, has 28 days to appeal...

    Rumour mill says he wants to join Reclaim/Laurence Fox outfit..

    Has he got his GB News gig lined up to keep the wolf from the door?
    There is no wolf. That's just what the MSM and OWG want you to think.

    Wake up sheeple!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    33 reports of fraud and 1 conviction at GE 2019 compared with 250,000 disenfranchised (presumably predominantly) non-Conservative voters in 2024. In theory it could turn a Labour majority into a Conservative one.

    Nice work if Vladimir Putin is your role model.

    The Govt has not disenfranchised anyone.
    It's at least arguable:
    - People without ID were able to vote
    - People without ID are now not able to vote

    That looks like disenfranchisement. Of course, people could take action to avoid being disenfranchised, but I'm not sure that enough was done to make the requirement obvious. They have at least introduced it for locals rather than a GE.
    Although I think the problem being addressed is miniscule but the 'solution' probably not causing major issues either (but more issues than the thing it supposedly 'fixes'). Although I might be shown to be wrong on 'not causing major issues'.
    Yes. Possibly isn't effective in its primary purpose of suppressing the wrong kind of votes. But creates an effective backlash against the people introducing it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Driver said:

    Selebian said:

    33 reports of fraud and 1 conviction at GE 2019 compared with 250,000 disenfranchised (presumably predominantly) non-Conservative voters in 2024. In theory it could turn a Labour majority into a Conservative one.

    Nice work if Vladimir Putin is your role model.

    The Govt has not disenfranchised anyone.
    It's at least arguable:
    - People without ID were able to vote
    - People without ID are now not able to vote

    That looks like disenfranchisement. Of course, people could take action to avoid being disenfranchised, but I'm not sure that enough was done to make the requirement obvious. They have at least introduced it for locals rather than a GE.
    Not sure they could make it much more obvious?


    Well, no one wrote to me to tell me!

    (May be due to me not having a vote in this round of locals. I've been disenfranchised, due to the local election being last year :disappointed:)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,252

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:




    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Two reasons:

    1. The Electoral Commission recommended it
    2. The franchise must been seen to be protected as well as being protected

    This is not an unreasonable ask. It is not an imposition. It is a fairly basic measure of security. The government have provided a large number of potential alternatives.

    (And, yes, we should tighten up postal voting as well)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,252

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases. The government has simply decided that one type of 'proof' is unsuitable.

    I wonder why?
    The 18+ card owner *doesn’t* need to prove their identify

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    Chris said:

    I still wonder whether this is necessarily going to be to the Tories' benefit, given that older people may tend to lack ID, coupled with the fact that normally turnout among older people is probably substantially higher than turnout among younger people lacking ID.

    Has there been any proper demographic analysis to quantify the likely effect on support by party?

    Of course not. It’s too useful a stick to attack the Tories with regardless of the facts.

    Just like they are blamed for not reversing Labour’s extension of postal voting.

    Requiring correct ID is an entirely reasonable things - as recommended by the Electoral Commission in fact
    Oh yes the Electoral Commission. A body that used to be beyond partisan advantage politics.
    Well there are 10 commissioners, 4 of which are appointed to represent political parties (I can see 1 Tory and 1 “smaller parties” representative who was ex SDLP).

    The rest look like pretty average senior establishment figures - former head of UK Statistics, etc.

    I’m pretty impressed that 1 Tory can bend the entire Electoral Commission to his will!

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/about-us/commissioners/our-commissioners
    How many of them have a passport or driving license? How many of their friends, relatives and acquantences have a passport or driving license? I'd confidently guess 100% to the first question and 98%+ for the latter.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    I don't like the I.D. rules either. I'm not convinced it's going to benefit the Conservatives and don't think that it is some sort of plot.

    This all started off with actual fraud in Tower Hamlets in 2015 which resulted in a review of electoral fraud, set up by Cameron, which came up with the recommendations which led to where we are today.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/02/tower-hamlets-mayor-lutfur-rahman-accused-electoral-fraud-corruption-high-court

    https://www.voice4change-england.org/post/tower-hamlets-the-bogeyman-of-uk-electoral-reform
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    kinabalu said:

    2ND like SKS in LE 2023 vote count

    In actual votes cast or national equivalent vote share?

    A very bold prediction if the latter!
    The former

    So now we have SKS Fans on board perhaps I can get an answer on my FPT question

    Ten Weeks ago SKS Party had a 28 point lead according to YG

    Today they have it at 15

    SKS Fans please explain

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/r2r7ejhs5x/TheTimes_VI_230215_W_.pdf
    Stop painting me as an SKS fan - I voted Nandy.

    However, I accept that Starmer won the leadership, and I wish him and his team well in securing a GE victory.

    Getting rid of the Tories is my priority- what's yours?
    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.
    PB labourites not good at backing the winner? :disappointed:

    Or maybe non-PB labourites not good at backing a winner :open_mouth:

    ETA: As a wet lettuce centrist LD-sympathiser, I think I'd have voted for Starmer, given the vote. Not quite convinced by Nandy. But I haven't seen a great deal of her.
    No, we don't let 'wet lettuce LD-sympathisers' stick their oar into who our leader should be, but he didn't need you as it turned out. It was never in doubt really. Starmer was one of the most solid odds-on shots in recent political betting. Hopefully you troughed some.
    I didn't unfortunately :disappointed: Was a bit busy with a newborn child at the time!

    SKS served me well on betting markets over the next couple of years though - you might almost say I'm a fan :wink:
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,525
    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited April 2023
    Following on from @Carlotta's latest update on the Trans wars I ended up with the report commissioned by the University of Essex following their withdrawal of invitations to two speakers who were apparently transphobic.

    The report is within this link (itself an apology for the invitation withdrawal) and all is well and good, inclusion this, freedom of speech that.

    https://www.essex.ac.uk/blog/posts/2021/05/17/review-of-two-events-with-external-speakers

    But I was surprised to see extended sections of the report redacted. What gives? Why would this have happened? Anyone AL?


  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2023
    FF43 said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    33 reports of fraud and 1 conviction at GE 2019 compared with 250,000 disenfranchised (presumably predominantly) non-Conservative voters in 2024. In theory it could turn a Labour majority into a Conservative one.

    Nice work if Vladimir Putin is your role model.

    The Govt has not disenfranchised anyone.
    It's at least arguable:
    - People without ID were able to vote
    - People without ID are now not able to vote

    That looks like disenfranchisement. Of course, people could take action to avoid being disenfranchised, but I'm not sure that enough was done to make the requirement obvious. They have at least introduced it for locals rather than a GE.
    Although I think the problem being addressed is miniscule but the 'solution' probably not causing major issues either (but more issues than the thing it supposedly 'fixes'). Although I might be shown to be wrong on 'not causing major issues'.
    Yes. Possibly isn't effective in its primary purpose of suppressing the wrong kind of votes. But creates an effective backlash against the people introducing it.
    The problem for those associated with this miserable change is that few of the many people who could vote before and still can think, I'm so glad I have to show ID. Whereas everyone of the few who could vote before, and are now prevented from doing so due to lack of ID, are absolutely furious.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases. The government has simply decided that one type of 'proof' is unsuitable.

    I wonder why?
    The 18+ card owner *doesn’t* need to prove their identify

    Garbage. I have just shown above that they do.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,252

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
    You need to provide:

    Active email address
    Student enrolment ID from your school, college or university
    London borough address
    Digital photo which must be a .jpg, .bmp or .gif file and less than 6MB
    You pay an administration fee of £20 using a credit or debit card.


    We'll post your 18+ Student Oyster photocard to you ***once your school, college or university has approved your application***.

    Actually rather a lot of things you and indeed your college need to provide to prove your identity – they might be different to a passport, just as a passport is different to a driving licence.

    Yet to claim one doesn't need to prove one's
    Identity to get a Student Oyster isdemonstrable garbage.

    Funny old world.
    I’m touched by your faith that the university system is a paragon of virtue

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27993775.amp
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:




    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Two reasons:

    1. The Electoral Commission recommended it
    2. The franchise must been seen to be protected as well as being protected

    This is not an unreasonable ask. It is not an imposition. It is a fairly basic measure of security. The government have provided a large number of potential alternatives.

    (And, yes, we should tighten up postal voting as well)
    The number of people with concerns about voting being fair has surely increased?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    ClippP said:

    Just wondering... Are the Tories planning to have tellers at the polling stations this year?

    If there are electors who are turned away for lack of voter ID, it would be unfair of them to vent their anger at polling station staff, the police or tellers representing other parties, wouldn't it?

    Have the Tories given their tellers a proper briefing - and even made an attempt to carry out a risk management appraisal?

    I also think it is unfair to vent anger against Tories at teh polling station for the Voter ID law when they almost certainly had nothing to do with it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
    You need to provide:

    Active email address
    Student enrolment ID from your school, college or university
    London borough address
    Digital photo which must be a .jpg, .bmp or .gif file and less than 6MB
    You pay an administration fee of £20 using a credit or debit card.


    We'll post your 18+ Student Oyster photocard to you ***once your school, college or university has approved your application***.

    Actually rather a lot of things you and indeed your college need to provide to prove your identity – they might be different to a passport, just as a passport is different to a driving licence.

    Yet to claim one doesn't need to prove one's
    Identity to get a Student Oyster isdemonstrable garbage.

    Funny old world.
    I’m touched by your faith that the university system is a paragon of virtue

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27993775.amp
    Aha! So now being shown that your post was completely untrue you move the goalposts.

    I'm certain many people have also gained passports and driving licences illegally. Yet strangely you don't mention that.

    It really is a funny old world.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929
    .
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    33 reports of fraud and 1 conviction at GE 2019 compared with 250,000 disenfranchised (presumably predominantly) non-Conservative voters in 2024. In theory it could turn a Labour majority into a Conservative one.

    Nice work if Vladimir Putin is your role model.

    The Govt has not disenfranchised anyone.
    It's at least arguable:
    - People without ID were able to vote
    - People without ID are now not able to vote

    That looks like disenfranchisement. Of course, people could take action to avoid being disenfranchised, but I'm not sure that enough was done to make the requirement obvious. They have at least introduced it for locals rather than a GE.
    Although I think the problem being addressed is miniscule but the 'solution' probably not causing major issues either (but more issues than the thing it supposedly 'fixes'). Although I might be shown to be wrong on 'not causing major issues'.
    Yes. Possibly isn't effective in its primary purpose of suppressing the wrong kind of votes. But creates an effective backlash against the people introducing it.
    The problem for those associated with this miserable change is that few of the many people who could vote before and still can think, I'm so glad I have to show ID. Whereas everyone of the few who could vote before, and are now prevented from doing so due to lack of ID, are absolutely furious.
    Any evidence that they are furious? Because if they are furious now, surely they’d be doing something about it while there is still time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135

    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
    Ah the perfection of my thesis has been spoiled. Still, a PB Labour leadership election would have been a Nandslide, I think.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @MrHarryCole
    2m
    Scooplet: Andrew Bridgen has been expelled from the Conservative Party over the vaccine/holocaust tweet.

    Kicked out on 12 April, has 28 days to appeal...

    Rumour mill says he wants to join Reclaim/Laurence Fox outfit..

    Hopefully the beginning of the end for this weirdo and his political career. Fingers crossed the voters of North West Leicestershire do their duty in Election 24 and rid us of this odd ball...
    IIRC, didn't their previous Conservative MP make the news after claiming that he shared a hotel room with another man merely to save money?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
    So did Mrs Foxy.

    I am not a member so have no vote.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,252

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
    You need to provide:

    Active email address
    Student enrolment ID from your school, college or university
    London borough address
    Digital photo which must be a .jpg, .bmp or .gif file and less than 6MB
    You pay an administration fee of £20 using a credit or debit card.


    We'll post your 18+ Student Oyster photocard to you ***once your school, college or university has approved your application***.

    Actually rather a lot of things you and indeed your college need to provide to prove your identity – they might be different to a passport, just as a passport is different to a driving licence.

    Yet to claim one doesn't need to prove one's
    Identity to get a Student Oyster isdemonstrable garbage.

    Funny old world.
    I’m touched by your faith that the university system is a paragon of virtue

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27993775.amp
    Aha! So now being shown that your post was completely untrue you move the goalposts.

    I'm certain many people have also gained passports and driving licences illegally. Yet strangely you don't mention that.

    It really is a funny old world.
    I think you and I have different views on what constitutes proof.

    Me: provide the necessary ID directly to the person doing the verification

    You: rely on someone who you have never met and who may or may not have done their job

    I agree that I am assuming that the DVLA and the passport office generally conduct their business in a controlled fashion and are more reliable than XY or Z at the Anabob College of Further Education
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
    Ah the perfection of my thesis has been spoiled. Still, a PB Labour leadership election would have been a Nandslide, I think.
    Yes but I don't think the LP would be in such a strong position today. Starmer is much more of a problem to the CP than Nandy would have been IMO.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
    You need to provide:

    Active email address
    Student enrolment ID from your school, college or university
    London borough address
    Digital photo which must be a .jpg, .bmp or .gif file and less than 6MB
    You pay an administration fee of £20 using a credit or debit card.


    We'll post your 18+ Student Oyster photocard to you ***once your school, college or university has approved your application***.

    Actually rather a lot of things you and indeed your college need to provide to prove your identity – they might be different to a passport, just as a passport is different to a driving licence.

    Yet to claim one doesn't need to prove one's
    Identity to get a Student Oyster isdemonstrable garbage.

    Funny old world.
    I’m touched by your faith that the university system is a paragon of virtue

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27993775.amp
    Aha! So now being shown that your post was completely untrue you move the goalposts.

    I'm certain many people have also gained passports and driving licences illegally. Yet strangely you don't mention that.

    It really is a funny old world.
    I think you and I have different views on what constitutes proof.

    Me: provide the necessary ID directly to the person doing the verification

    You: rely on someone who you have never met and who may or may not have done their job

    I agree that I am assuming that the DVLA and the passport office generally conduct their business in a controlled fashion and are more reliable than XY or Z at the Anabob College of Further Education
    Surely though getting a false student registration and student oyster card is sufficient obstacle to prevent impostors, even if less substantive than a passport?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,079
    TOPPING said:

    Following on from @Carlotta's latest update on the Trans wars I ended up with the report commissioned by the University of Essex following their withdrawal of invitations to two speakers who were apparently transphobic.

    The report is within this link (itself an apology for the invitation withdrawal) and all is well and good, inclusion this, freedom of speech that.

    https://www.essex.ac.uk/blog/posts/2021/05/17/review-of-two-events-with-external-speakers

    But I was surprised to see extended sections of the report redacted. What gives? Why would this have happened? Anyone AL?


    I assume it's because @MarqueeMark has only got as far as episode 7 of the report and wants to avoid spoilers
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,190

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:




    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Two reasons:

    1. The Electoral Commission recommended it
    2. The franchise must been seen to be protected as well as being protected

    This is not an unreasonable ask. It is not an imposition. It is a fairly basic measure of security. The government have provided a large number of potential alternatives.

    (And, yes, we should tighten up postal voting as well)
    The Electoral Commission did not specifically recommend PHOTO ID.


    Does anyone really think that if the Conservatives didn't think they would benefit from this that they would be pushing it through without any attempt at cross-party consensus, and rejecting amendments made the House of Lords?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
    Ah the perfection of my thesis has been spoiled. Still, a PB Labour leadership election would have been a Nandslide, I think.
    I reckon that you've been saving up "Nandslide" for several years, and now is your chance to unleash it on the world!
  • What on earth is meant by "voter suppression"? Why on earth should people who can't prove who they who they say they are be allowed to cheat in voting? You need identification to pick up a parcel or rent a car, why is this any different? It's totally non-partisan and neutral, just common sense and tightening up electoral security, if you ask me.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
    You need to provide:

    Active email address
    Student enrolment ID from your school, college or university
    London borough address
    Digital photo which must be a .jpg, .bmp or .gif file and less than 6MB
    You pay an administration fee of £20 using a credit or debit card.


    We'll post your 18+ Student Oyster photocard to you ***once your school, college or university has approved your application***.

    Actually rather a lot of things you and indeed your college need to provide to prove your identity – they might be different to a passport, just as a passport is different to a driving licence.

    Yet to claim one doesn't need to prove one's
    Identity to get a Student Oyster isdemonstrable garbage.

    Funny old world.
    I’m touched by your faith that the university system is a paragon of virtue

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27993775.amp
    Aha! So now being shown that your post was completely untrue you move the goalposts.

    I'm certain many people have also gained passports and driving licences illegally. Yet strangely you don't mention that.

    It really is a funny old world.
    I think you and I have different views on what constitutes proof.

    Me: provide the necessary ID directly to the person doing the verification

    You: rely on someone who you have never met and who may or may not have done their job

    I agree that I am assuming that the DVLA and the passport office generally conduct their business in a controlled fashion and are more reliable than XY or Z at the Anabob College of Further Education
    When I applied for my first passport, I had to get my application verified, and a statement that the photo was a true likeness by someone...


    ...my tutor at university.

    Each time I have renewed, it is on the back of that original submission.

    So is that any different to a student with a bus pass, verified by their tutor?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited April 2023
    RobD said:

    .

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    33 reports of fraud and 1 conviction at GE 2019 compared with 250,000 disenfranchised (presumably predominantly) non-Conservative voters in 2024. In theory it could turn a Labour majority into a Conservative one.

    Nice work if Vladimir Putin is your role model.

    The Govt has not disenfranchised anyone.
    It's at least arguable:
    - People without ID were able to vote
    - People without ID are now not able to vote

    That looks like disenfranchisement. Of course, people could take action to avoid being disenfranchised, but I'm not sure that enough was done to make the requirement obvious. They have at least introduced it for locals rather than a GE.
    Although I think the problem being addressed is miniscule but the 'solution' probably not causing major issues either (but more issues than the thing it supposedly 'fixes'). Although I might be shown to be wrong on 'not causing major issues'.
    Yes. Possibly isn't effective in its primary purpose of suppressing the wrong kind of votes. But creates an effective backlash against the people introducing it.
    The problem for those associated with this miserable change is that few of the many people who could vote before and still can think, I'm so glad I have to show ID. Whereas everyone of the few who could vote before, and are now prevented from doing so due to lack of ID, are absolutely furious.
    Any evidence that they are furious? Because if they are furious now, surely they’d be doing something about it while there is still time.
    OK so we can add a further small group who could vote before and realising they would soon no longer be able to do so, go through unnecessary steps to sort it out. This group is slightly less furious.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    edited April 2023
    Foxy said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    They look similar, but to get one the holder has had to prove their identity and to get the other they haven't.

    As people should realise by now, becuase we've discussed it enough times.
    The owner has to 'prove' their identity in both cases.
    Not in anywhere near the same way. Do I need to repost the screenshots FPT to prove again how you're being disingenuous?
    You need to provide:

    Active email address
    Student enrolment ID from your school, college or university
    London borough address
    Digital photo which must be a .jpg, .bmp or .gif file and less than 6MB
    You pay an administration fee of £20 using a credit or debit card.


    We'll post your 18+ Student Oyster photocard to you ***once your school, college or university has approved your application***.

    Actually rather a lot of things you and indeed your college need to provide to prove your identity – they might be different to a passport, just as a passport is different to a driving licence.

    Yet to claim one doesn't need to prove one's
    Identity to get a Student Oyster isdemonstrable garbage.

    Funny old world.
    I’m touched by your faith that the university system is a paragon of virtue

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-27993775.amp
    Aha! So now being shown that your post was completely untrue you move the goalposts.

    I'm certain many people have also gained passports and driving licences illegally. Yet strangely you don't mention that.

    It really is a funny old world.
    I think you and I have different views on what constitutes proof.

    Me: provide the necessary ID directly to the person doing the verification

    You: rely on someone who you have never met and who may or may not have done their job

    I agree that I am assuming that the DVLA and the passport office generally conduct their business in a controlled fashion and are more reliable than XY or Z at the Anabob College of Further Education
    Surely though getting a false student registration and student oyster card is sufficient obstacle to prevent impostors, even if less substantive than a passport?
    The thing I find bizarre is that these organised in-person voting fraudsters who have:
    - information on the electoral roll
    - information on who is not going to vote
    - vast teams of people able to do the actual fraudulent voting while avoiding (at least more than a few) repeated trips to the same polling station
    - analysis enabling effective targetting of the seats that can be swung in their favour
    will nonetheless be defeated by an inability to produce fake ID of one of many different forms good enough to fool the person at the polling station (who may have little interest in the process, little time and possibly no exposure to what genuine forms of all the IDs should look like, keeping in mind that expired IDs, possibly with differences to current versions, can also be valid).

    It may stop B A Knob from taking his elderly senile neighbour's vote for the lolz, but stopping Fraudcorp from turning a seat or an election? I can't see it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
    Ah the perfection of my thesis has been spoiled. Still, a PB Labour leadership election would have been a Nandslide, I think.
    I reckon that you've been saving up "Nandslide" for several years, and now is your chance to unleash it on the world!
    When I look at [the] Sky at the next GE, I think I will see a Starmer coming :wink:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
    Ah the perfection of my thesis has been spoiled. Still, a PB Labour leadership election would have been a Nandslide, I think.
    Yes but I don't think the LP would be in such a strong position today. Starmer is much more of a problem to the CP than Nandy would have been IMO.
    Nandy fans, please explain?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    kamski said:

    This actually makes me feel a bit sick.

    Student travel card requires an email address, London address, proof of school/college/university enrolment and a digital photo

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/18-plus-student-oyster-photocard#:~:text=You need to provide:,London borough address

    Given how much fraud has been observed in the student enrolment process (dodgy higher education colleges faking immigration) it seems entirely reasonable that it is not deemed a reasonable proof of eligibility to vote.

    The senior card requires a passport or drivers licence. Do you understand why that might be deemed as a higher quality piece if ID?

    https://tfl.gov.uk/fares/free-and-discounted-travel/60-plus-oyster-photocard?intcmp=54724#on-this-page-2
    Why do we need ID at all? This absurd policy, transparently launched for party political advantage, led to this:




    Yet still the PB Tories go out to bat for it. I wonder why?
    Two reasons:

    1. The Electoral Commission recommended it
    2. The franchise must been seen to be protected as well as being protected

    This is not an unreasonable ask. It is not an imposition. It is a fairly basic measure of security. The government have provided a large number of potential alternatives.

    (And, yes, we should tighten up postal voting as well)
    The Electoral Commission did not specifically recommend PHOTO ID.


    Does anyone really think that if the Conservatives didn't think they would benefit from this that they would be pushing it through without any attempt at cross-party consensus, and rejecting amendments made the House of Lords?
    Bearing in mind that registration to vote requires no photo, and there is no means to check on a photo is the right person, why is a photo required for this scheme?

    Why not a recent utility* bill and a bank card for example?

    *one reason I have stuck to paper bills is to prove ID and address.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    edited April 2023
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:



    So did I. Every PB Lab member voted Nandy. Not sure what this says but it says something.

    If we're into analysing small subsamples, I voted Starmer.
    Ah the perfection of my thesis has been spoiled. Still, a PB Labour leadership election would have been a Nandslide, I think.
    Yes but I don't think the LP would be in such a strong position today. Starmer is much more of a problem to the CP than Nandy would have been IMO.
    I'm happy enough with SKS but my hunch is Nandy would have been a touch better. She's more 'relatable', more 'likable', and these qualities do count a lot in politics, rightly or wrongly (imv the latter).
This discussion has been closed.