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Raab’s future hangs in the balance – politicalbetting.com

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  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited April 2023
    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    I think the basic problem here is people like Priti Patel and Dominic Raab were egged on by Boris Johnson to vocally pursue their grievances against the civil service, whereas otherwise they would have been more measured and diplomatic in pursuing their agenda. The message from the leadership matters a lot.

    The reality is that they have to make the Minister/civil servant relationship work without these kinds of embarrassing public fallouts, because it really reflects badly on everyone. Neither party look good, in my view.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Any sign of White Smoke coming out of 10 Downing St. Chimney yet? :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,680

    Possible indicator of tactical voting effect ahead of the locals???

    New poll tonight from Techne has the Lab lead down to 13 (-2) - narrowing may be continuing.

    Interestingly, Con->Lab switchers are stable at 14%, but *11%* of 2019 Labour voters are switching to LD here!

    I've never seen it higher than 6% since GE 2019.

    Possible Locals effect?

    https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1649136571919024129

    Obviously, more polling is needed before any conclusions can be drawn, but if Labour voters are switching to the LDs in the run up to the local elections that will not be good for the Tories given the seats that are in play.

    The LD share at local elections and in national elections with PR, is usually nearly double the share in national FTPT elections. Is this Labour tactical voters voting LD locally, or LD voters voting Lab at General Elections?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    If Raab stays, and senior civil servants resign, it would demonstrate Raab is not effective at his job.

    If people won't work with him, he's useless
    Now, hang on. I think of plenty of senior civil servants who if forced to resign by a minister, would demonstrate the minister was actually excellent at her (in this case) job.

    Please don’t put me in the position of having to think Raab is effective…
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,440

    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    Another factor might be whether Raab's dismissal will trigger a wider reshuffle, and if it can be postponed till the parliamentary recess that starts Friday.
    Not another recess! What for this time?

    And good morning everybody!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Snooker promotor Barry Hearn to fund civil lawsuits from spectators who had their evening disrupted by the protester. They’re going to sue the hell out of the soap-dodger.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/snooker/2023/04/20/just-stop-oil-snooker-protests-barry-hearn-legal-action/

    I hope they take the little shit to the cleaners, both figuratively and literally.
    A ticket costs, what, £50 and there were 400-odd spectators, so even if they all sue, the bill won't bankrupt the crowd-funded trustafarian.
    “That geezer who jumped on the table, he has upset me,” Hearn told the Sportsman. “I also feel sorry for the project that he claims to represent. He did it more harm than good. But my overriding consideration is that all those people bought a ticket and had their evening spoiled. So I am going to write to the people that missed out and offer to support them, on a no-win, no-fee basis.

    “And I am going to suggest they all join me in taking civil action against that young man for the cost incurred in their ticket, their travel, their food. I don’t think people should take the mick, thinking that the poor old punter can just get treated like it just doesn’t matter. I want to send a message out to anyone else who wants to try it – we will do you as well.”

    Hearn, who remains the president of Matchroom Sport and had been involved in professional snooker since the late 1970s, intends to personally write to the 460 spectators who were directly affected. “It will be the small claims court and there will be an awful lot of people going,”


    It’s interesting to note that the offender has been bailed until June, despite being arrested six times for similar offences in the past year, and already served a week in custody. How many more offences will he commit, between now and his court appearance for this offence?
    It's at times like this that I wish we had California's three strikes law.
    Three strikes leads to absurdities like life imprisonment for minor shoplifting or snooker-related offences, which would not get past the court of public opinion, let alone the ECHR (assuming the police deigned to investigate in the first place). What we sorely need is to cut the problem off at source with a Prohibition of Complete Dickheads Act.
    The problem with that is too many MPs would need to recuse themselves if it were ever proposed in parliament.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Andy_JS said:

    Wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.

    Moaning about other people wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.
    Maybe 1% of people still wear them regularly. Possibly less than that. I think it’s *maybe* more in the US (where for some people it seems to be a bit of a signifier of which culture war side you’re on).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    Raab on a bullying awareness course would be fun to watch! I wonder how he'd react to it.

    He would probably misunderstand it and think he was being asked to raise awareness of how to be a good bully.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,867
    Ghedebrav said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.

    Moaning about other people wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.
    Maybe 1% of people still wear them regularly. Possibly less than that. I think it’s *maybe* more in the US (where for some people it seems to be a bit of a signifier of which culture war side you’re on).
    During my tour around the US last autumn, there weren’t many, but there were some - indeed I probably saw marginally more mask wearing there than at home immediately before and after, which was a little surprising.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,680
    edited April 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    If Raab stays, and senior civil servants resign, it would demonstrate Raab is not effective at his job.

    If people won't work with him, he's useless
    The current batch of Tories thrive on this sort of toxic behaviour. They see causing social division as their electoral strategy via confected "Culture Wars" on segments of their own people.

    Hostile and arrogant behaviour to the Civil Service is by design. Truss and Kwarteng were not exceptions, and neither is Raab. This is the way the government is.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Foxy said:

    Possible indicator of tactical voting effect ahead of the locals???

    New poll tonight from Techne has the Lab lead down to 13 (-2) - narrowing may be continuing.

    Interestingly, Con->Lab switchers are stable at 14%, but *11%* of 2019 Labour voters are switching to LD here!

    I've never seen it higher than 6% since GE 2019.

    Possible Locals effect?

    https://twitter.com/Beyond_Topline/status/1649136571919024129

    Obviously, more polling is needed before any conclusions can be drawn, but if Labour voters are switching to the LDs in the run up to the local elections that will not be good for the Tories given the seats that are in play.

    The LD share at local elections and in national elections with PR, is usually nearly double the share in national FTPT elections. Is this Labour tactical voters voting LD locally, or LD voters voting Lab at General Elections?

    In 1997, a lot of people who had generically replied Labour in opinion polls actually voted for the LibDems as they were best placed to defeat an incumbent Tory MP. They then largely stuck with the LibDems until 2015. I have been wondering whether at least some of the poll movements recently are down to the local elections taking place and normal people beginning to engage with politics again. If this is an indicator of tactical voting, it's not great news for the Tories ... But it is one poll and could all just be noise rather than anything meaningful.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    The BBC now has live reporting about Rishi Sunak not doing anything:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-64467038
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,298

    Andy_JS said:

    Wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.

    Moaning about other people wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.
    My new religion is pointing out that other people have turned X into their new religion.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    Chris said:

    The BBC now has live reporting about Rishi Sunak not doing anything:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-64467038

    Well, that must be easy.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    If Raab stays, and senior civil servants resign, it would demonstrate Raab is not effective at his job.

    If people won't work with him, he's useless
    The current batch of Tories thrive on this sort of toxic behaviour. They see causing social division as their electoral strategy via connected "Culture Wars" on segments of their own people.

    Hostile and arrogant behaviour to the Civil Service is by design. Truss and Kwarteng were not exceptions, and neither is Raab. This is the way the government is.
    Yeah, and plenty of support for "strong" management on here too, labelling complainers as snowflakes, yet research into management is pretty clear that bullying is a sign of weak, ineffective and poor managers, not strong and successful ones.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Ghedebrav said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.

    Moaning about other people wearing face masks is the new religion for some people.
    Maybe 1% of people still wear them regularly. Possibly less than that. I think it’s *maybe* more in the US (where for some people it seems to be a bit of a signifier of which culture war side you’re on).
    Some of them need to wear them....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    If Raab stays, and senior civil servants resign, it would demonstrate Raab is not effective at his job.

    If people won't work with him, he's useless
    The current batch of Tories thrive on this sort of toxic behaviour. They see causing social division as their electoral strategy via connected "Culture Wars" on segments of their own people.

    Hostile and arrogant behaviour to the Civil Service is by design. Truss and Kwarteng were not exceptions, and neither is Raab. This is the way the government is.
    Yeah, and plenty of support for "strong" management on here too, labelling complainers as snowflakes, yet research into management is pretty clear that bullying is a sign of weak, ineffective and poor managers, not strong and successful ones.
    Undoubtedly

    Exhibit A - the Civil Service.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    Raab on a bullying awareness course would be fun to watch! I wonder how he'd react to it.

    Raab would smirk, I am guessing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    on Times Radio: “If Dominic Raab was to be dismissed, would you miss him?”

    Mark Harper: “Well look, Dominic is a colleague and I work with him.”
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    DavidL said:

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    If Raab stays, and senior civil servants resign, it would demonstrate Raab is not effective at his job.

    If people won't work with him, he's useless
    The current batch of Tories thrive on this sort of toxic behaviour. They see causing social division as their electoral strategy via connected "Culture Wars" on segments of their own people.

    Hostile and arrogant behaviour to the Civil Service is by design. Truss and Kwarteng were not exceptions, and neither is Raab. This is the way the government is.
    Yeah, and plenty of support for "strong" management on here too, labelling complainers as snowflakes, yet research into management is pretty clear that bullying is a sign of weak, ineffective and poor managers, not strong and successful ones.

    Bullies are bullies because they are not good at their jobs. Sometimes people lose their cool and raise their voices, and that is understandable, but someone who does it as a matter of routine is almost certainly going to be ineffective. I don't know whether Raab is a bully, but his ministerial record is far from stellar. I mean, what has he actually achieved with the power he has had? Gove, who is clearly very courteous and calm while also being highly demanding, has done a whole lot more.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,670
    edited April 2023
    Chris said:

    The BBC now has live reporting about Rishi Sunak not doing anything:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-64467038

    Raabbit stuck in headlights
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904

    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    Another factor might be whether Raab's dismissal will trigger a wider reshuffle, and if it can be postponed till the parliamentary recess that starts Friday.
    Not another recess! What for this time?

    And good morning everybody!
    Technically, it is two consecutive recesses for May Day and the coronation.
    https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-commons-faqs/business-faq-page/recess-dates/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,617

    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    I find the 'dithering' accusations a bit pathetic. Sunak got the report at midday yesterday, and within a few hours people were screeching "why hasn't he acted!!!"

    Of course, the same people would be wanting full process and consideration if they were in Raab's position and facing similar accusations...

    (And don't say "I'm brilliant! It could never happen to me!" It could.)
    The investigation and report is due process. That much has already happened. Rishi must have had a shrewd idea of the possible content: the range is not great.
    And if the report says a person is not 100% "he is guilty"; you think a decision should always be made immediately and should not be carefully considered? An interesting question is whether the report suggests possible punishments (I guess not).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    The BBC now has live reporting about Rishi Sunak not doing anything:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-64467038

    Well, that must be easy.
    In my opinion they are spoiling it by filling the page with a lot of discussion and commentary about the fact that nothing is happening.

    I think it would be better if every few minutes they just said "Still nothing."
  • NEW THREAD

  • DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    We know for a fact that a straight up "they are a bully" report doesn't get the bully fired - Priti Patel.

    This Conservative Party has no interest in ethics and morality, so the lack of a firing yesterday says nothing at all about the report. Raab won't quit. Sunak won't fire him. Ministers defend him. Incredulity. Then aggrieved civil servants quit and start talking. Part of the report leaks, directly contradicting ministerial statements. More incredulity. then Raab is fired. Ministers claim they have acted swiftly. Even more incredulity.

    Give it time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,670
    Does Raab have something on Rishi? It’s either something like that or Raab’s tremendous political talent or genteel good nature keeping in post.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904

    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    I find the 'dithering' accusations a bit pathetic. Sunak got the report at midday yesterday, and within a few hours people were screeching "why hasn't he acted!!!"

    Of course, the same people would be wanting full process and consideration if they were in Raab's position and facing similar accusations...

    (And don't say "I'm brilliant! It could never happen to me!" It could.)
    The investigation and report is due process. That much has already happened. Rishi must have had a shrewd idea of the possible content: the range is not great.
    And if the report says a person is not 100% "he is guilty"; you think a decision should always be made immediately and should not be carefully considered? An interesting question is whether the report suggests possible punishments (I guess not).
    I think the range of possibilities was known from the outset. Let us also remember that if Raab is dismissed, at least he will know why, unlike 99 per cent of those who lose their ministerial jobs in reshuffles.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502

    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    Raab on a bullying awareness course would be fun to watch! I wonder how he'd react to it.

    Apropos of nothing really there is a great PG Wodehouse short story where a shy chap does an assertiveness course by post and, having no idea that this has worked wonders, aggressively demands his money back.

    BTW Raab is just Spode made sort of real. Black shorts would suit him.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    DavidL said:

    On topic, the Raab report must be a slightly mixed bag and Sunak has to decide whether it justifies dismissal or not. Clearly, the more serious allegations have not been upheld or he would have gone yesterday. On the other hand I suspect that there are some criticisms.

    Sunak's problem is that he does not want a repeat of the Boris/Priti Patel fiasco which seriously undermined the Ministerial Code and cost an ethics advisor. On the other hand he doesn't want to give senior civil servants some sort of veto of who is in his government. And he doesn't need yet another civil service conflict either.

    My guess is that what will be announced is that Raab will undergo some training or bullying awareness course but remain in office. Sunak will be accused of being weak and indecisive but that is a price he will have to pay.

    It’s not a veto. There is a code, by which he is supposed to abide. For all the contempt shown to that code by the Johnson regime, it still exists.

    Good ministers understand the importance of cordial relationships with their civil servants. It’s the latter that actually ‘do the stuff’. As others have noted, it is entirely possible to be demanding and exacting, and not be a dick about it. A good leader will inspire hard work. Raab leads via tantrums.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    NEW THREAD

    That's good. This thread can now be dedicated to Sunak's inactivity.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,794
    Good morning, everyone.

    Excitingly, my postal voting paper (last one in the period I set up during the pandemic) has arrived, and I've received zero electoral literature whatsoever. Interestingly, there are more candidates than usual for the locals, including the SDP and Reform UK.
This discussion has been closed.