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The GE1992 polling disaster – the lessons learnt – politicalbetting.com

13

Comments

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Hopefully, some of the members of the Hereford Boat Club are getting the Ukrainians interested in rowing.
    The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is worrying.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303
    DougSeal said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Hopefully, some of the members of the Hereford Boat Club are getting the Ukrainians interested in rowing.
    The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is worrying.
    "The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is very silly."

    Fixed that for you, no charge.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    So football isn't a sport? Always knew it...
    Since when do footy matches last all day long???
    Don't they?

    Maybe they're so boring it just feels like it.
    You're mistaking it for cricket.
    Or maybe it's just that I'm confusing the long, tedious, stupidly over analytical pre match build up and post match inquests with the game itself.

    TBF, there are so many clips shown repeatedly it's hard to know what's live and what isn't.

    But whenever there's a big match on my TV seems to show nothing but footy all day.
    90 minutes regulation play, then if needed, 30 minutes extra time, then if needed, the old penalty shoot-out.
    So it does last all day?!
    Two hours tops!
    Ninety plus thirty plus a penalty shootout is more than two hours.
    Typo, my friend. Three hours tops.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    So football isn't a sport? Always knew it...
    Since when do footy matches last all day long???
    Don't they?

    Maybe they're so boring it just feels like it.
    You're mistaking it for cricket.
    Or maybe it's just that I'm confusing the long, tedious, stupidly over analytical pre match build up and post match inquests with the game itself.

    TBF, there are so many clips shown repeatedly it's hard to know what's live and what isn't.

    But whenever there's a big match on my TV seems to show nothing but footy all day.
    There's a trick to it. You just watch the match and nothing else. No build up. No post match histrionics.

    PBers are good at this discipline. When it comes to General Elections they: Vote at their polling station remembering to take their passport (to vote) and their dog (for twitter); turn on the telly at 9.59 and 55 seconds, watch till they know the result and have seen John Curtice tell them, then go to bed with a cup of cocoa. PBers take no interest in elections for the remainder of the 5 year cycle.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    ydoethur said:

    Driver said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Best sport ever invented, cricket.
    It's a truly wicket way of passing time.
    Your comment is a bit wide of the mark.
    Also a bit silly mid off
    These gags make me crease up.
    I see your point.
    One should always duck out of cricket puns before you slip up.
    They think it's all over (or 50 of them).
    These puns have been going on for....... too long ,stop posting them.
    How is that?
    Well, it was definitely a bowled effort.
    I need to look up that term in Googly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    DougSeal said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Hopefully, some of the members of the Hereford Boat Club are getting the Ukrainians interested in rowing.
    The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is worrying.
    "The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is very silly."

    Fixed that for you, no charge.
    Enough sas from the two of you.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    So football isn't a sport? Always knew it...
    Since when do footy matches last all day long???
    Don't they?

    Maybe they're so boring it just feels like it.
    You're mistaking it for cricket.
    Or maybe it's just that I'm confusing the long, tedious, stupidly over analytical pre match build up and post match inquests with the game itself.

    TBF, there are so many clips shown repeatedly it's hard to know what's live and what isn't.

    But whenever there's a big match on my TV seems to show nothing but footy all day.
    There's a trick to it. You just watch the match and nothing else. No build up. No post match histrionics.

    PBers are good at this discipline. When it comes to General Elections they: Vote at their polling station remembering to take their passport (to vote) and their dog (for twitter); turn on the telly at 9.59 and 55 seconds, watch till they know the result and have seen John Curtice tell them, then go to bed with a cup of cocoa. PBers take no interest in elections for the remainder of the 5 year cycle.

    I've got an even better trick.

    Any time I see anything football related, I find a channel with something interesting like cricket on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303
    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Hopefully, some of the members of the Hereford Boat Club are getting the Ukrainians interested in rowing.
    The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is worrying.
    "The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is very silly."

    Fixed that for you, no charge.
    Enough sas from the two of you.

    Vincent: Who taught you?
    Sam: I don't remember. That's the second thing they teach you.


    We now know where Nicola Sturgeon got her training, though
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Hopefully, some of the members of the Hereford Boat Club are getting the Ukrainians interested in rowing.
    The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is worrying.
    "The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is very silly."

    Fixed that for you, no charge.
    Enough sas from the two of you.

    Vincent: Who taught you?
    Sam: I don't remember. That's the second thing they teach you.


    We now know where Nicola Sturgeon got her training, though
    She'd never admit it, though.

    I mean, the disgrace of admitting she worked with the English would finish her off.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,662
    "Abandon ship: does this symbol of slavery shame Manchester and its football clubs?"

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/19/abandon-ship-does-this-symbol-of-slavery-shame-manchester-and-its-football-clubs
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DougSeal said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Hopefully, some of the members of the Hereford Boat Club are getting the Ukrainians interested in rowing.
    The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is worrying.
    "The degree of devotion on this board to what was a very silly part of a very silly film is very silly."

    Fixed that for you, no charge.
    Enough sas from the two of you.

    Vincent: Who taught you?
    Sam: I don't remember. That's the second thing they teach you.


    We now know where Nicola Sturgeon got her training, though
    She'd never admit it, though.

    I mean, the disgrace of admitting she worked with the English would finish her off.
    I though Sam was CIA?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    10 days.

    That's how long the 5th test match between South Africa and England went on for in March 1939. It would have gone on even longer, except the England team had to catch the ship back home.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/england-tour-of-south-africa-1938-39-61688/south-africa-vs-england-5th-test-62657/full-scorecard

    "The Test match that went on and on and on. Without a winner but with meaning

    THE LONGEST GAME EVER PLAYED
    The game started on Friday 3 March and it ended 12 days later, after 43 hours and 16 minutes of play, 1,981 runs, and 5,447 balls. After all that, it still lacked the one thing it was supposed to have – a winner."

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/dec/22/the-spin-cricket-the-timeless-test-1939
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,528
    Nigelb said:



    Well clearly they're not getting membership while active conflict is going on.
    But equally, peace is not going to be achieved without absolute credible security guarantees for Ukraine, after the lessons of 2014.

    They'll have to find a way to square that circle eventually.

    Point everyone is making is that NATO has members, and has admitted members, who have territorial disputes.

    Yes, I agree. Even if there was to be an indefinite ceasefire (a la Cyprus) on current lines, I think that Ukraine would need very solid guarantees that Russia won't come back for more, and part of that could be letting Ukraine join NATO on the understanding that this didn't mean that we'd join in a "recapture Donbas and Crimea" crusade, but any renewed attack by Russia would bring the full weight of NATO in. Russia would hate it
    (because of the declared war aim to prevent NATO membership) and Ukraine would hate it (because it would postpone getting Donbas and Ukraine back into the indefinite future), but cease-fires often involve both sides feeling they won't get all they want.

    Before that becomes a serious prospect, we'll need to see if the Ukraine offensive gets anywhere - if they feel they're winning, then of course they'll entertain no such thing. If Russia and Ukraine both find they're effectively stuck, a willingness to talk will gradually emerge.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,624

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    biggles said:

    Wow. This is the future. The stages are fixable. If they have that bit sorted, they have a rocket.

    I only wish Musk didn’t own it so I could be truly happy for them.

    SpaceX wouldn't exist without Musk, and I doubt that anything similar would. The man may be an arse, but he's a genius arse.
    I suspect every other person with such achievements would be as much as arse if not more so.

    Elon's issue is that he made a foolish decision (buying Twitter) and by not having someone filtering his appearances when talking to the general public he's revealed what he is really like.

    Separately if you look in today's news Tesla has really annoyed Renault who are hinting that Telsa's price cuts are destroying their chance of being part of the EV future. I would have thought destroying the ability for Renault (and VW, Peugeot) to sell expensive EVs was the whole point of the price cuts.
    From what we know of the likes of Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg - they are all arseholes. It’s just that Musk says what he’s thinking out loud in public. I’m sure previous generations of entrepreneurs - Branson, Buffett etc, were just as bad.
    Branson's autobiography is quite illuminating. Larry Ellison is another... interesting individual
    I have a lot of time for Bezos, oddly enough. Ellison is an out-and-out ****. Jobs was a **** - anyone who does what he did to his daughter is a ****. Zuckerberg thinks he is more intelligent than he is. Branson started off as a tax fraudster, and went downhill from there. Gates... Gates intrigues me.
    Bezos did the most amazing presentation with proper Gerard K O'Neill visions of space/energy usage and yet he's not even made an orbital rocket ???

    The stuff Elon is trying to do OTOH is really really hard.
    It's about focus, drive and vision.

    Bezos wanted space stuff. So he sets up a company and provides money for space stuff. Some space stuff happens. There is a huge gap between "I want this to happen" presentations and building a whole industrial empire to make it happen. Bezos put the effort in, to build Amazon. He didn't do this with Blue Origin. He farmed out running that to a succession of leaders who have performed poorly.

    Rather like Paul Allen and Stratolaunch. Though, there, there was more commitment from Allen.

    It requires focus, commitment, business knowledge, technical knowledge and constant pressure from the man in charge, for stuff to actually happen.
    Actually... no.

    Bezos did something sensible for the first few years. He set an aim: to get lots of mass into orbit. He then set a few big-brained people off looking at alternatives. And in the end, they came up with rockets. You might (and probably will) argue that was wasted time, but I'm not so sure. Imagine if they had come up with another idea.

    Since then, they've worked on building a large rocket, with big engines. The engines are complete, and will hopefully fly on Vulcan-Centaur soonish. In the meantime, they've been doing lots of other lovely research into what will actually be needed for Bezos's vision to come true.

    You know my views on SpaceX and Musk's rather poor (non-existent) deep-space exploration program to aid their Mars endeavours. The only stuff they're doing is for the Moon, which Musk always said he wasn't interested in, and or which NASA is paying.

    We need both to succeed, along preferably with others. The last thing we need for deep space exploration is someone as capricious as Musk at the helm.

    Also: remember me warning you about all the problems they'd been having with Raptors on the test stand? ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    Andy_JS said:

    10 days.

    That's how long the 5th test match between South Africa and England went on for in March 1939. It would have gone on even longer, except the England team had to catch the ship back home.

    https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/england-tour-of-south-africa-1938-39-61688/south-africa-vs-england-5th-test-62657/full-scorecard

    "The Test match that went on and on and on. Without a winner but with meaning

    THE LONGEST GAME EVER PLAYED
    The game started on Friday 3 March and it ended 12 days later, after 43 hours and 16 minutes of play, 1,981 runs, and 5,447 balls. After all that, it still lacked the one thing it was supposed to have – a winner."

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/dec/22/the-spin-cricket-the-timeless-test-1939

    Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    So football isn't a sport? Always knew it...
    Since when do footy matches last all day long???
    Don't they?

    Maybe they're so boring it just feels like it.
    You're mistaking it for cricket.
    Or maybe it's just that I'm confusing the long, tedious, stupidly over analytical pre match build up and post match inquests with the game itself.

    TBF, there are so many clips shown repeatedly it's hard to know what's live and what isn't.

    But whenever there's a big match on my TV seems to show nothing but footy all day.
    There's a trick to it. You just watch the match and nothing else. No build up. No post match histrionics.

    PBers are good at this discipline. When it comes to General Elections they: Vote at their polling station remembering to take their passport (to vote) and their dog (for twitter); turn on the telly at 9.59 and 55 seconds, watch till they know the result and have seen John Curtice tell them, then go to bed with a cup of cocoa. PBers take no interest in elections for the remainder of the 5 year cycle.

    I've got an even better trick.

    Any time I see anything Cricket related, I find a channel with something interesting like Football on.
    :innocent:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    So football isn't a sport? Always knew it...
    Since when do footy matches last all day long???
    Don't they?

    Maybe they're so boring it just feels like it.
    You're mistaking it for cricket.
    Or maybe it's just that I'm confusing the long, tedious, stupidly over analytical pre match build up and post match inquests with the game itself.

    TBF, there are so many clips shown repeatedly it's hard to know what's live and what isn't.

    But whenever there's a big match on my TV seems to show nothing but footy all day.
    There's a trick to it. You just watch the match and nothing else. No build up. No post match histrionics.

    PBers are good at this discipline. When it comes to General Elections they: Vote at their polling station remembering to take their passport (to vote) and their dog (for twitter); turn on the telly at 9.59 and 55 seconds, watch till they know the result and have seen John Curtice tell them, then go to bed with a cup of cocoa. PBers take no interest in elections for the remainder of the 5 year cycle.

    I've got an even better trick.

    Any time I see anything Cricket related, I find a channel with something interesting like Football on.
    :innocent:
    Bloody Worcestershire are going to go past the Shire with no loss, aren't they?

    (I'm just putting that in the reply to your comment to annoy you.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Mike Lindell’s firm told to pay $5 million in ‘Prove Mike Wrong’ election-fraud challenge
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2023/04/20/mike-lindell-prove-wrong-contest/
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,090
    edited April 2023
    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723

    ydoethur said:

    Driver said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Best sport ever invented, cricket.
    It's a truly wicket way of passing time.
    Your comment is a bit wide of the mark.
    Also a bit silly mid off
    These gags make me crease up.
    I see your point.
    One should always duck out of cricket puns before you slip up.
    They think it's all over (or 50 of them).
    These puns have been going on for....... too long ,stop posting them.
    How is that?
    Well, it was definitely a bowled effort.
    I need to look up that term in Googly.
    Ask a Chinaman.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,377

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    That sounds like someone covering all the bases. After all the question is simple - did Raab bully people
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    Would any of them taking offence know what a ship of the Royal Navy's West Africa Squadron looked like? Just asking....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    ydoethur said:

    Driver said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Best sport ever invented, cricket.
    It's a truly wicket way of passing time.
    Your comment is a bit wide of the mark.
    Also a bit silly mid off
    These gags make me crease up.
    I see your point.
    One should always duck out of cricket puns before you slip up.
    They think it's all over (or 50 of them).
    These puns have been going on for....... too long ,stop posting them.
    How is that?
    Well, it was definitely a bowled effort.
    I need to look up that term in Googly.
    Ask a Chinaman.
    Ooh, you’ve triggered the Guardian there.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/28/the-spin-cricket-chinaman-phrase
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,226
    I don't know how far this has been done, but...

    How far was the 1992 fail about not picking up a late surge, and how much was it drifting off track over several years as Shy Tories became ever more shy?

    The first is more exciting, and more hopeful news for Today's Conservatives. But the second, that the Conservatives were probably solidly ahead throughout Major's first term in reality... That's more likely , isn't it?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

  • No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Severe heatwave engulfs Asia causing deaths and forcing schools to close
    Extreme temperatures described as ‘worst April heatwave in Asian history’ as records threatened in India, China, Thailand and Laos
    https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2023/apr/19/severe-heatwave-asia-deaths-schools-close-india-china
  • No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Another possibility is pressure is being put on Raab to fall on his sword, and there is a bit of a stand-off.

    Sunak needs to be careful here - looks like dithering.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    biggles said:

    Wow. This is the future. The stages are fixable. If they have that bit sorted, they have a rocket.

    I only wish Musk didn’t own it so I could be truly happy for them.

    SpaceX wouldn't exist without Musk, and I doubt that anything similar would. The man may be an arse, but he's a genius arse.
    I suspect every other person with such achievements would be as much as arse if not more so.

    Elon's issue is that he made a foolish decision (buying Twitter) and by not having someone filtering his appearances when talking to the general public he's revealed what he is really like.

    Separately if you look in today's news Tesla has really annoyed Renault who are hinting that Telsa's price cuts are destroying their chance of being part of the EV future. I would have thought destroying the ability for Renault (and VW, Peugeot) to sell expensive EVs was the whole point of the price cuts.
    From what we know of the likes of Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg - they are all arseholes. It’s just that Musk says what he’s thinking out loud in public. I’m sure previous generations of entrepreneurs - Branson, Buffett etc, were just as bad.
    Branson's autobiography is quite illuminating. Larry Ellison is another... interesting individual
    I have a lot of time for Bezos, oddly enough. Ellison is an out-and-out ****. Jobs was a **** - anyone who does what he did to his daughter is a ****. Zuckerberg thinks he is more intelligent than he is. Branson started off as a tax fraudster, and went downhill from there. Gates... Gates intrigues me.
    Bezos did the most amazing presentation with proper Gerard K O'Neill visions of space/energy usage and yet he's not even made an orbital rocket ???

    The stuff Elon is trying to do OTOH is really really hard.
    It's about focus, drive and vision.

    Bezos wanted space stuff. So he sets up a company and provides money for space stuff. Some space stuff happens. There is a huge gap between "I want this to happen" presentations and building a whole industrial empire to make it happen. Bezos put the effort in, to build Amazon. He didn't do this with Blue Origin. He farmed out running that to a succession of leaders who have performed poorly.

    Rather like Paul Allen and Stratolaunch. Though, there, there was more commitment from Allen.

    It requires focus, commitment, business knowledge, technical knowledge and constant pressure from the man in charge, for stuff to actually happen.
    Actually... no.

    Bezos did something sensible for the first few years. He set an aim: to get lots of mass into orbit. He then set a few big-brained people off looking at alternatives. And in the end, they came up with rockets. You might (and probably will) argue that was wasted time, but I'm not so sure. Imagine if they had come up with another idea.

    Since then, they've worked on building a large rocket, with big engines. The engines are complete, and will hopefully fly on Vulcan-Centaur soonish. In the meantime, they've been doing lots of other lovely research into what will actually be needed for Bezos's vision to come true.

    You know my views on SpaceX and Musk's rather poor (non-existent) deep-space exploration program to aid their Mars endeavours. The only stuff they're doing is for the Moon, which Musk always said he wasn't interested in, and or which NASA is paying.

    We need both to succeed, along preferably with others. The last thing we need for deep space exploration is someone as capricious as Musk at the helm.

    Also: remember me warning you about all the problems they'd been having with Raptors on the test stand? ;)
    The problem is that Blue Origin isn't launching at all. The chance that they will roll something as big as New Glenn out of the barn and just go to space is pretty low. And it's been slipping to the right, steadily for years now.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terran_R is a better bet in the near term, as is https://www.stokespace.com/

    As to deep space - Falcon Heavy is Sending Europa Clipper on its way. For less money than SLS and without the vibration issue.

    Due to Bezos buying up all the capacity of non-SpaceX rockets and the fact that SpaceX is the only supplier with capacity flexibility, they are going to be flying a lot of the NASA deep space missions for the next few years.

    We are also probably going to see a Hubble reboost by Polaris Dawn - as a freebie for NASA>, in the next year so.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Driver said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Best sport ever invented, cricket.
    It's a truly wicket way of passing time.
    Your comment is a bit wide of the mark.
    Also a bit silly mid off
    These gags make me crease up.
    I see your point.
    One should always duck out of cricket puns before you slip up.
    They think it's all over (or 50 of them).
    These puns have been going on for....... too long ,stop posting them.
    How is that?
    Well, it was definitely a bowled effort.
    I need to look up that term in Googly.
    Ask a Chinaman.
    Ooh, you’ve triggered the Guardian there.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/28/the-spin-cricket-chinaman-phrase
    That's got me stumped.. what is the Grauniad.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Driver said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Best sport ever invented, cricket.
    It's a truly wicket way of passing time.
    Your comment is a bit wide of the mark.
    Also a bit silly mid off
    These gags make me crease up.
    I see your point.
    One should always duck out of cricket puns before you slip up.
    They think it's all over (or 50 of them).
    These puns have been going on for....... too long ,stop posting them.
    How is that?
    Well, it was definitely a bowled effort.
    I need to look up that term in Googly.
    Ask a Chinaman.
    Ooh, you’ve triggered the Guardian there.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/28/the-spin-cricket-chinaman-phrase
    Understandable that the Manchester Slave Owners Daily News gets touchy about the big issues.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848

    I don't know how far this has been done, but...

    How far was the 1992 fail about not picking up a late surge, and how much was it drifting off track over several years as Shy Tories became ever more shy?

    The first is more exciting, and more hopeful news for Today's Conservatives. But the second, that the Conservatives were probably solidly ahead throughout Major's first term in reality... That's more likely , isn't it?

    2015 was a more recent failing, the polls were essentially level-pegging, but the Tories were ahead by 6.6% in actual votes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    There's no guarantee the report will be published at the same time as the outcome is announced.
    If Raab stays in post, I suspect they will delay publication.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    algarkirk said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Driver said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    That’s a lovely story at the end. Where there is cricket, there is happiness.
    And tedium. Standing around in a field all day a sport doth not make.
    Best sport ever invented, cricket.
    It's a truly wicket way of passing time.
    Your comment is a bit wide of the mark.
    Also a bit silly mid off
    These gags make me crease up.
    I see your point.
    One should always duck out of cricket puns before you slip up.
    They think it's all over (or 50 of them).
    These puns have been going on for....... too long ,stop posting them.
    How is that?
    Well, it was definitely a bowled effort.
    I need to look up that term in Googly.
    Ask a Chinaman.
    Ooh, you’ve triggered the Guardian there.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/mar/28/the-spin-cricket-chinaman-phrase
    Understandable that the Manchester Slave Owners Daily News gets touchy about the big issues.
    A comprehensive all rounder sort of comment that hits them for 6.
  • Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited April 2023
    It turns out that the Tories knew that Labour would go into the sewer, so decided to get there first ...

    https://twitter.com/WritesBright/status/1649078196321525761
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,226

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Not clear cut in this context likely means "has behaved unacceptably but there's nothing you can point to in the rules saying Rabb must go."

    Before 2019, that wouldn't have mattered. Something like the Cesar's Wife Rule applied- to need an investigation was shame enough.

    The change in standards wasn't just down to BoJo, though he did mark the point where I think we crossed the moral thermocline.

    But this attitude is an innovation, and not a good one.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Or perhaps they are finalising the inevitable whataboutery distraction that will have BigG moaning about something Starmer did whenever anyone questions why Raab is still in post?
  • I don't know how far this has been done, but...

    How far was the 1992 fail about not picking up a late surge, and how much was it drifting off track over several years as Shy Tories became ever more shy?

    The first is more exciting, and more hopeful news for Today's Conservatives. But the second, that the Conservatives were probably solidly ahead throughout Major's first term in reality... That's more likely , isn't it?

    There may be a bit of both. The late surge is perfectly credible - that undecided voters broke quite a bit more for the steady, grey man than the mercurial, Welsh one.

    The "shy Tories" story doesn't necessarily require that people were lying as such to the pollsters about their intentions when they were interviewed. It is at least possible that quite a few people were genuinely undecided in their own minds until very late, but plumped for the "safe" choice in the final 48 hours - which isn't a totally unexpected way to break. That accords with my own experience campaigning at that election to some extent.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

    I do wonder how it could be "not clear cut" though? Raab didn't bully but nonetheless some of his civil servants felt bullied?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    Nigelb said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    There's no guarantee the report will be published at the same time as the outcome is announced.
    If Raab stays in post, I suspect they will delay publication.
    The best friends of the powerful: Delay, Complexification, Ambiguity, Confusion, Division, Diversion, Boredom. The unchanging tactics.

    It would be OK up to a point if they were good at running the country as well.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Another possibility is pressure is being put on Raab to fall on his sword, and there is a bit of a stand-off.

    Sunak needs to be careful here - looks like dithering.

    If that is the case, it is dithering. But it's still better than my version of events.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,662

    It turns out that the Tories knew that Labour would go into the sewer, so decided to get there first ...

    https://twitter.com/WritesBright/status/1649078196321525761

    Is it wrong to say that Labour would reverse the Rwanda plan?
  • Labour lead the Conservatives by 20% in Wales, up from 5% in 2019.

    Wales Westminster VI (15-17 Apr):

    Labour 44% (+3)
    Conservatives 24% (-12)
    Plaid Cymru 12% (+2)
    Reform UK 9% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (+1)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 2019 GE
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    It turns out that the Tories knew that Labour would go into the sewer, so decided to get there first ...

    https://twitter.com/WritesBright/status/1649078196321525761

    Is it wrong to say that Labour would reverse the Rwanda plan?

    It is wrong to say that they back people smugglers over the British people. But you know that.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,624
    edited April 2023

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    biggles said:

    Wow. This is the future. The stages are fixable. If they have that bit sorted, they have a rocket.

    I only wish Musk didn’t own it so I could be truly happy for them.

    SpaceX wouldn't exist without Musk, and I doubt that anything similar would. The man may be an arse, but he's a genius arse.
    I suspect every other person with such achievements would be as much as arse if not more so.

    Elon's issue is that he made a foolish decision (buying Twitter) and by not having someone filtering his appearances when talking to the general public he's revealed what he is really like.

    Separately if you look in today's news Tesla has really annoyed Renault who are hinting that Telsa's price cuts are destroying their chance of being part of the EV future. I would have thought destroying the ability for Renault (and VW, Peugeot) to sell expensive EVs was the whole point of the price cuts.
    From what we know of the likes of Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg - they are all arseholes. It’s just that Musk says what he’s thinking out loud in public. I’m sure previous generations of entrepreneurs - Branson, Buffett etc, were just as bad.
    Branson's autobiography is quite illuminating. Larry Ellison is another... interesting individual
    I have a lot of time for Bezos, oddly enough. Ellison is an out-and-out ****. Jobs was a **** - anyone who does what he did to his daughter is a ****. Zuckerberg thinks he is more intelligent than he is. Branson started off as a tax fraudster, and went downhill from there. Gates... Gates intrigues me.
    Bezos did the most amazing presentation with proper Gerard K O'Neill visions of space/energy usage and yet he's not even made an orbital rocket ???

    The stuff Elon is trying to do OTOH is really really hard.
    It's about focus, drive and vision.

    Bezos wanted space stuff. So he sets up a company and provides money for space stuff. Some space stuff happens. There is a huge gap between "I want this to happen" presentations and building a whole industrial empire to make it happen. Bezos put the effort in, to build Amazon. He didn't do this with Blue Origin. He farmed out running that to a succession of leaders who have performed poorly.

    Rather like Paul Allen and Stratolaunch. Though, there, there was more commitment from Allen.

    It requires focus, commitment, business knowledge, technical knowledge and constant pressure from the man in charge, for stuff to actually happen.
    Actually... no.

    Bezos did something sensible for the first few years. He set an aim: to get lots of mass into orbit. He then set a few big-brained people off looking at alternatives. And in the end, they came up with rockets. You might (and probably will) argue that was wasted time, but I'm not so sure. Imagine if they had come up with another idea.

    Since then, they've worked on building a large rocket, with big engines. The engines are complete, and will hopefully fly on Vulcan-Centaur soonish. In the meantime, they've been doing lots of other lovely research into what will actually be needed for Bezos's vision to come true.

    You know my views on SpaceX and Musk's rather poor (non-existent) deep-space exploration program to aid their Mars endeavours. The only stuff they're doing is for the Moon, which Musk always said he wasn't interested in, and or which NASA is paying.

    We need both to succeed, along preferably with others. The last thing we need for deep space exploration is someone as capricious as Musk at the helm.

    Also: remember me warning you about all the problems they'd been having with Raptors on the test stand? ;)
    The problem is that Blue Origin isn't launching at all. The chance that they will roll something as big as New Glenn out of the barn and just go to space is pretty low. And it's been slipping to the right, steadily for years now.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terran_R is a better bet in the near term, as is https://www.stokespace.com/

    As to deep space - Falcon Heavy is Sending Europa Clipper on its way. For less money than SLS and without the vibration issue.

    Due to Bezos buying up all the capacity of non-SpaceX rockets and the fact that SpaceX is the only supplier with capacity flexibility, they are going to be flying a lot of the NASA deep space missions for the next few years.

    We are also probably going to see a Hubble reboost by Polaris Dawn - as a freebie for NASA>, in the next year so.
    Yes, SpaceX are launching probes. That are paid for and built by others. Their deep-space work themselves has been a car. Cool, but of f-all scientific use. And that actually matters.

    Both Musk and Bezos's visions will take centuries to come to fruition. (*) You're judging a victor after the first two decades. It's going to be a very long game - and there's an interesting question of what happens when the founders die, get jailed or discredited. for that reason, amongst others, we need as many competitors up there as possible.

    As for "slipping to the right": so has SH/SS. Back in 2019, Musk was saying SS would be in orbit in six months...

    (*) If they are actually achievable. I's much more dubious about colonies on Mars than colonies in space, for very real physical reasons.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    edited April 2023

    It turns out that the Tories knew that Labour would go into the sewer, so decided to get there first ...

    https://twitter.com/WritesBright/status/1649078196321525761

    Is it wrong to say that Labour would reverse the Rwanda plan?
    "Keep Paddington Bear in Britain" accompanied by Private Eye's little masterstroke:

    https://twitter.com/gillie_flower/status/1519641577609744386

    might get the Labour vote out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087

    It turns out that the Tories knew that Labour would go into the sewer, so decided to get there first ...

    https://twitter.com/WritesBright/status/1649078196321525761

    Is it wrong to say that Labour would reverse the Rwanda plan?
    Yes - there's no way they're going to refund the £100m plus now.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

    I do wonder how it could be "not clear cut" though? Raab didn't bully but nonetheless some of his civil servants felt bullied?
    Its just a classic he said vs the other 24 said.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    TimS said:

    Chris said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    Wow. This is the future. The stages are fixable. If they have that bit sorted, they have a rocket.

    I only wish Musk didn’t own it so I could be truly happy for them.

    SpaceX wouldn't exist without Musk, and I doubt that anything similar would. The man may be an arse, but he's a genius arse.
    A mad genius. The world is a better place for him, and we need more people with his sprit and attitude.
    Someone should send you a dictionary with an entry for "genius" in it.
    Tesla did two very important things: 1. demonstrate that an electric vehicle could be fast, and cool. 2. demonstrate that an EV could be a large family car with a meaningful range. For those two things we have a lot to be thankful. If Musk had just retired from cars at that point, spent a few years on SpaceX and then retired from that too, and never bought twitter, he’d be revered as a truly great individual.
    I think there's a pretty big difference between a genius on the one hand and a capitalist who made a couple of smart moves and then covered himself in - not to put too fine a point on it - excrement.

    Learn to be more critical of your heroes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,090
    edited April 2023

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Or perhaps they are finalising the inevitable whataboutery distraction that will have BigG moaning about something Starmer did whenever anyone questions why Raab is still in post?
    Excuse me

    I will do no such thing

    Raab remaining in post will be because the case has not been made

    I do not like Raab and am not about to justify his behaviour over his time in office
  • Driver said:

    Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

    I do wonder how it could be "not clear cut" though? Raab didn't bully but nonetheless some of his civil servants felt bullied?
    Wouldn't that essentially be exhoneration, though? If the objective person, looking on at the behaviour wouldn't call it bullying, then it isn't bullying. The fact an exceptionally sensitive person might feel bullied... well, that's something for both sides to learn from but that's all.

    And I don't think Raab fundamentally denies that point - his case is that he demands high standards of himself and expects them of others, but that he stayed the right side of the line. But, of course, once you get beyond the playground, that's how bullies see themselves. They don't subjectively say "I'm a bully - heh, heh". The proper test is an objective one - how would someone not involved in the incidents concerned but seeing them play out see the matter?

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    If you are trying to guess what Bezos and Musk will do, you might want to read, or re-read Heinlein's "The Man Who Sold the Moon". Both men have said they were inspired by the novel.

    No spoilers, but you can probably find them in a Wikipedia article, though you really should read the novel, if you haven't already.

    (And the late Paul Allen was inspired by an earlier Heinlein novel, "Rocket Ship Galileo".)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    edited April 2023
    What's extraordinary to my mind is that Sunak has stuck his neck out for Nadhim Zahawi, Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman and Dominic Raab.

    I mean - seriously?

    You could understand Lloyd George going in to bat for Churchill and Birkenhead, who may have been arrogant and unbalanced racists but were at least brilliant in their own fields of journalism and law. Or Aberdeen trying to retain Palmerston and Russell, who may have been selfish twits but at least understood foreign affairs and domestic needs. Or Portland over Canning and Castlereagh. Or even Macmillan over Profumo. If all these people had shortcomings (to put it mildly) they at least had talent as well.

    But - those four? I wouldn't fight to retain them as manager of a Costa DriveThru.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited April 2023

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

    I do wonder how it could be "not clear cut" though? Raab didn't bully but nonetheless some of his civil servants felt bullied?
    Wouldn't that essentially be exhoneration, though? If the objective person, looking on at the behaviour wouldn't call it bullying, then it isn't bullying. The fact an exceptionally sensitive person might feel bullied... well, that's something for both sides to learn from but that's all.

    You might think so, but I bet his partisan critics wouldn't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    edited April 2023
    Bloody hell.

    Tom Price, not satisfied with scoring 109, is now on a hat trick.

    EDIT - HAS JUST TAKEN ONE!!!!

    (Three catches for Bracey too.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Trump issues this 15 second edict to the cult: “When you see RINOs Karl Rove, Bill Barr or Paul Ryan on your television screen, just turn to a different station or turn it off. Turn off that set as fast as you can!”
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1648773017596461056
  • No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Or perhaps they are finalising the inevitable whataboutery distraction that will have BigG moaning about something Starmer did whenever anyone questions why Raab is still in post?
    Excuse me

    I will do no such thing

    Raab remaining in post will be because the case has not been made

    I do not like Raab and am not about to justify his behaviour over his time in office
    Raab remaining in post COULD be because the case has not been made. But it could alternatively be because Sunak wants to keep him in the tent due to his personal allegiance to Raab (he made the guy deputy PM after all, and Raab was notably loyal over the leadership contest in the summer) and due to fear of creating backbench enemies.

    It's interesting your trust in Sunak is such that you simply assume that however he responds to the report will be for entirely the right reasons - that might or might not be so.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Either Rishi is a very slow reader, or he's not very decisive.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Labour lead the Conservatives by 20% in Wales, up from 5% in 2019.

    Wales Westminster VI (15-17 Apr):

    Labour 44% (+3)
    Conservatives 24% (-12)
    Plaid Cymru 12% (+2)
    Reform UK 9% (+4)
    Liberal Democrat 7% (+1)
    Green 4% (+3)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 2019 GE

    You can't shake the Drake.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

    I do wonder how it could be "not clear cut" though? Raab didn't bully but nonetheless some of his civil servants felt bullied?
    Its just a classic he said vs the other 24 said.
    But the 24 would say that, wouldn't they?

    Group think.
  • Does anyone know Sunny War?

    Amazing US folk/blues singer/guitarist

    She sounds a bit like a 2020s version of early Bonnie Raitt

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLBl3jfFg-c
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell.

    Tom Price, not satisfied with scoring 109, is now on a hat trick.

    EDIT - HAS JUST TAKEN ONE!!!!

    (Three catches for Bracey too.)

    Must be a rare event - century + hat trick?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell.

    Tom Price, not satisfied with scoring 109, is now on a hat trick.

    EDIT - HAS JUST TAKEN ONE!!!!

    (Three catches for Bracey too.)

    Awesome! You’re at the ground, or watching online?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Nigelb said:

    Either Rishi is a very slow reader, or he's not very decisive.

    He's still working on his spreadsheet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

    I do wonder how it could be "not clear cut" though? Raab didn't bully but nonetheless some of his civil servants felt bullied?
    Its just a classic he said vs the other 24 said.
    But the 24 would say that, wouldn't they?

    Group think.
    Mandy thinks so.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Nigelb said:

    Trump issues this 15 second edict to the cult: “When you see RINOs Karl Rove, Bill Barr or Paul Ryan on your television screen, just turn to a different station or turn it off. Turn off that set as fast as you can!”
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1648773017596461056

    Karl Rove now the face of moderate Republicanism LOL.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    ydoethur said:

    What's extraordinary to my mind is that Sunak has stuck his neck out for Nadhim Zahawi, Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman and Dominic Raab.

    I mean - seriously?

    You could understand Lloyd George going in to bat for Churchill and Birkenhead, who may have been arrogant and unbalanced racists but were at least brilliant in their own fields of journalism and law. Or Aberdeen trying to retain Palmerston and Russell, who may have been selfish twits but at least understood foreign affairs and domestic needs. Or Portland over Canning and Castlereagh. Or even Macmillan over Profumo. If all these people had shortcomings (to put it mildly) they at least had talent as well.

    But - those four? I wouldn't fight to retain them as manager of a Costa DriveThru.

    Perhaps the Conservative Parliamentary Party is just at such a low ebb, and its loony element at such a high ebb, that the worst of the worst command enough support to topple Sunak.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416

    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell.

    Tom Price, not satisfied with scoring 109, is now on a hat trick.

    EDIT - HAS JUST TAKEN ONE!!!!

    (Three catches for Bracey too.)

    Must be a rare event - century + hat trick?
    Sixteen occurences.

    https://stats.acscricket.com/Records/First_Class/Overall/All_Round/Century_and_Hat_trick_in_Same_Match.html

    Oddly, this is the fourth for Gloucestershire though. Two for Mike Procter and one for James Franklin (I was there when he did that). And the only team with more than one occurrence although Sohag Gazi did one for his domestic teams and one for Bangladesh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell.

    Tom Price, not satisfied with scoring 109, is now on a hat trick.

    EDIT - HAS JUST TAKEN ONE!!!!

    (Three catches for Bracey too.)

    Awesome! You’re at the ground, or watching online?
    Online, alas. Got to go teach in a minute, but the New Road crowd sound like they're loving it!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    I wonder if Rish is waiting to Raab to do the honourable thing?

    We could be here for a while if so... ;)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    @sima_kotecha
    Sounds like no Dominic Raab verdict tonight. Former senior civil servant who worked closely with him messages, "I imagine morale in the MoJ has dropped through the floor. It is nothing less than a travesty if he remains in post". More on #Newsnight tonight ..
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,020
    Nigelb said:

    Either Rishi is a very slow reader, or he's not very decisive.

    Or Raab has reminded him of the Kompromat he has locked away in a safe location...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    Nigelb said:

    Either Rishi is a very slow reader, or he's not very decisive.

    Raab has locked him in a very small cupboard
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    ydoethur said:

    What's extraordinary to my mind is that Sunak has stuck his neck out for Nadhim Zahawi, Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman and Dominic Raab.

    I mean - seriously?

    You could understand Lloyd George going in to bat for Churchill and Birkenhead, who may have been arrogant and unbalanced racists but were at least brilliant in their own fields of journalism and law. Or Aberdeen trying to retain Palmerston and Russell, who may have been selfish twits but at least understood foreign affairs and domestic needs. Or Portland over Canning and Castlereagh. Or even Macmillan over Profumo. If all these people had shortcomings (to put it mildly) they at least had talent as well.

    But - those four? I wouldn't fight to retain them as manager of a Costa DriveThru.

    The voters can't sack Rishi until next year.

    The bastards can do it tomorrow.

    Thus keeping the bastards onside is more important than keeping the voters
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    I used to think Rishi Sunak was indecisive, but now I just can't make up my mind about him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell.

    Tom Price, not satisfied with scoring 109, is now on a hat trick.

    EDIT - HAS JUST TAKEN ONE!!!!

    (Three catches for Bracey too.)

    Currently about 20 minutes back on this live stream.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ-wzKmuUm4
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,792
    PM on R4 say Raab has had a copy of the full report and read it - but hasn't spoken to Rishi today.

    So... who knows.
  • Driver said:

    Driver said:

    Driver said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Maybe wait to see the outcome and the report before jumping to conclusions

    Sky certainly saying it is not clear cut
    Yebbut anything other than total exoneration deserves a sacking.

    Apparently.
    The report will be very interesting as it looks as if there is some doubt

    Sunak is a PM who is the polar opposite of Johnson in that he is forensic in his assessments and will not be rushed to judgment no matter the political pressure

    Raab may well resign but we will see in the next 24 hours

    I do wonder how it could be "not clear cut" though? Raab didn't bully but nonetheless some of his civil servants felt bullied?
    Wouldn't that essentially be exhoneration, though? If the objective person, looking on at the behaviour wouldn't call it bullying, then it isn't bullying. The fact an exceptionally sensitive person might feel bullied... well, that's something for both sides to learn from but that's all.

    You might think so, but I bet his partisan critics wouldn't.
    No, indeed - they'd criticise him for being a bit of an insensitive sh1t who is a right pain in the arse to work for, and they'd probably be broadly correct. I don't think Raab's staunchest allies would say he's a lovely, unfailingly charming, cuddly teddy bear of a man. "Exhoneration" doesn't mean Raab is the victim of some kind of conspiracy against him - it means he just about stayed the right side of the line.

    But that sort of criticism is standard political fayre - it matters to some people if cabinet ministers are nice people, and not to others, but not being that nice probably isn't a resignation matter.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087

    Nigelb said:

    Trump issues this 15 second edict to the cult: “When you see RINOs Karl Rove, Bill Barr or Paul Ryan on your television screen, just turn to a different station or turn it off. Turn off that set as fast as you can!”
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1648773017596461056

    Karl Rove now the face of moderate Republicanism LOL.
    Strangely enough, Trump is attempting to rebrand himself as that, painting DeSantis as extreme (that bit's certainly true).

    This might even be true, if you allow for about half of the country thinking he should already be in jail:
    “80% of the public thinks that Donald J. Trump, me, is being treated very unfairly.”
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1648789325868331010
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Desperate attempt at spin.

    Labour want a sacking and if not to claim Sunak has no integrity, because Raab is a Conservative and so is he.

    If the report isn't clear cut then it's only fair that Sunak considers carefully what to do next. You don't just through someone to the wolves regardless because they are baying for blood.

    Incidentally, I hold absolutely no candle for Raab.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    Nigelb said:

    Either Rishi is a very slow reader, or he's not very decisive.

    He's still working on his spreadsheet.
    Wise to spread a sheet on the floor for the blood when Raab punches him in the nose, when he sacks him
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,226
    ydoethur said:

    What's extraordinary to my mind is that Sunak has stuck his neck out for Nadhim Zahawi, Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman and Dominic Raab.

    I mean - seriously?

    You could understand Lloyd George going in to bat for Churchill and Birkenhead, who may have been arrogant and unbalanced racists but were at least brilliant in their own fields of journalism and law. Or Aberdeen trying to retain Palmerston and Russell, who may have been selfish twits but at least understood foreign affairs and domestic needs. Or Portland over Canning and Castlereagh. Or even Macmillan over Profumo. If all these people had shortcomings (to put it mildly) they at least had talent as well.

    But - those four? I wouldn't fight to retain them as manager of a Costa DriveThru.

    Two things that can be true at once.

    1. Rishi can be a more honourable politician than Boris.

    2. Rishi can have learnt a lot of his political skills by watching Boris close up, and that has normalised some pretty bad stuff.

    There's quite a big space between "more honourable than Boris" and "honourable as is commonly understood".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    The new military/industrial complex.

    It's been a banner month for the romance between the Pentagon and Silicon Valley.

    Senate approves Radha Plumb, late of Facebook and Google, to be DOD's #2 weapons buyer.

    Apple's Doug Beck to run Defense Innovation Unit.

    And Andrew Moore, head of Google Cloud AI, joins Centcom.

    https://twitter.com/mideastXmidwest/status/1649072541942652928
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    edited April 2023
    ydoethur said:

    What's extraordinary to my mind is that Sunak has stuck his neck out for Nadhim Zahawi, Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman and Dominic Raab.

    I mean - seriously?

    You could understand Lloyd George going in to bat for Churchill and Birkenhead, who may have been arrogant and unbalanced racists but were at least brilliant in their own fields of journalism and law. Or Aberdeen trying to retain Palmerston and Russell, who may have been selfish twits but at least understood foreign affairs and domestic needs. Or Portland over Canning and Castlereagh. Or even Macmillan over Profumo. If all these people had shortcomings (to put it mildly) they at least had talent as well.

    But - those four? I wouldn't fight to retain them as manager of a Costa DriveThru.

    Sunak is a curious mixture of sensible decent One Nation Tory and hostage. Whether he feels to be held hostage by MPs, ministers, members or voters is unclear. But he needs a break from trying to run a country on One Nation and Hostage lines simultaneously.

    I shall do him a favour by voting Labour.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    What's extraordinary to my mind is that Sunak has stuck his neck out for Nadhim Zahawi, Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman and Dominic Raab.

    I mean - seriously?

    You could understand Lloyd George going in to bat for Churchill and Birkenhead, who may have been arrogant and unbalanced racists but were at least brilliant in their own fields of journalism and law. Or Aberdeen trying to retain Palmerston and Russell, who may have been selfish twits but at least understood foreign affairs and domestic needs. Or Portland over Canning and Castlereagh. Or even Macmillan over Profumo. If all these people had shortcomings (to put it mildly) they at least had talent as well.

    But - those four? I wouldn't fight to retain them as manager of a Costa DriveThru.

    Sunak is a curious mixture of sensible decent One Nation Tory and hostage. Whether he feels to be held hostage by MPs, ministers, members or voters is unclear. But he needs a break from trying to run a country on One Nation and Hostage lines simultaneously.

    I shall do him a favour by voting Labour.

    He's a more right wing PM than any One Nation Tory as usually understood.
    Have they redefined that, too ?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    algarkirk said:

    ydoethur said:

    What's extraordinary to my mind is that Sunak has stuck his neck out for Nadhim Zahawi, Gavin Williamson, Suella Braverman and Dominic Raab.

    I mean - seriously?

    You could understand Lloyd George going in to bat for Churchill and Birkenhead, who may have been arrogant and unbalanced racists but were at least brilliant in their own fields of journalism and law. Or Aberdeen trying to retain Palmerston and Russell, who may have been selfish twits but at least understood foreign affairs and domestic needs. Or Portland over Canning and Castlereagh. Or even Macmillan over Profumo. If all these people had shortcomings (to put it mildly) they at least had talent as well.

    But - those four? I wouldn't fight to retain them as manager of a Costa DriveThru.

    Sunak is a curious mixture of sensible decent One Nation Tory and hostage. Whether he feels to be held hostage by MPs, ministers, members or voters is unclear. But he needs a break from trying to run a country on One Nation and Hostage lines simultaneously.

    I shall do him a favour by voting Labour.

    He presents well, is bright and comes across as reasonable and well meaning, which is an unusual mix for someone on the right of the Tory party, but that is where he is from. Small state, distrustful of govt and hard Brexiteer, he is no One Nation Tory.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    If Raab had been exonerated, we'd know by now. If Raab was going to be fired, we'd know by now. So, we know he hasn't been exonerated and he's not being fired. The delay is because they are working out how Sunak can still claim, with a straight face, to have any integrity.

    Desperate attempt at spin.

    Labour want a sacking and if not to claim Sunak has no integrity, because Raab is a Conservative and so is he.

    If the report isn't clear cut then it's only fair that Sunak considers carefully what to do next. You don't just through someone to the wolves regardless because they are baying for blood.

    Incidentally, I hold absolutely no candle for Raab.
    Difficult to say you have delayed coming to a conclusion because the report isn't clear cut, and then endorse Raab. What do you say? "Well, it was a tough decision, which is why it's taken me so long, but I've eventually decided I have full confidence in him."?

    How about "Well, it was a tough decision, which is why it has taken me so long, but I have decided that sadly we must lose him."?
  • Isn’t it a shame that people don’t get sacked like Ed Balls used to sack people
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    These kinds of reports are rarely clear cut. It comes down to how much capital you are prepared to spend defending the indefensible.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    The issue is likely boils down to “was that bullying”. The word (unlike harassment) doesn’t have a statutory definition. One person’s bullying is another’s strong management. I’ve made a career out of trying to persuade people that actions lie one side or the other of the line.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303

    Isn’t it a shame that people don’t get sacked like Ed Balls used to sack people

    You mean the occasion Ed Balls sacked someone in such a stupid manner that, though they deserved sacking, they ended up with a payout for unfair dismissal?
  • FF43 said:

    No decision on Raab today according to Sky

    Sky suggesting the report is not clear cut

    These kinds of reports are rarely clear cut. It comes down to how much capital you are prepared to spend defending the indefensible.
    It comes down to the report by an independent KC and whether he has found evidence to conclude Raab did bully staff

    I do not defend Raab as he is poor at his job and he may yet resign/ be sacked but in the absence of the report no one knows if it is defending the indefensible
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,043
    Of course Major always had a clear lead as preferred PM over Kinnock in 1992. Sunak does poll better than his party but doesn't have a clear lead over Starmer to the extent Major did over Kinnock
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    edited April 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    Bloody hell.

    Tom Price, not satisfied with scoring 109, is now on a hat trick.

    EDIT - HAS JUST TAKEN ONE!!!!

    (Three catches for Bracey too.)

    Awesome! You’re at the ground, or watching online?
    Online, alas. Got to go teach in a minute, but the New Road crowd sound like they're loving it!
    Just watched it online, thanks to @Andy_JS for the link. Always good to see hat-tricks, have only ever seen one live once, and it was against England! (Rabada from SA, in the T20 WC at Sharjah a couple of years ago)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    HYUFD said:

    Of course Major always had a clear lead as preferred PM over Kinnock in 1992. Sunak does poll better than his party but doesn't have a clear lead over Starmer to the extent Major did over Kinnock

    YET
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    Isn’t it a shame that people don’t get sacked like Ed Balls used to sack people

    You mean the occasion Ed Balls sacked someone in such a stupid manner that, though they deserved sacking, they ended up with a payout for unfair dismissal?
    Sharon Shoesmith, and from memory she got close to a million as a payoff. Plus all the legal fees the government had to pay. You can’t sack senior CS in the same way the PM can sack a minister, there’s a process to follow no matter how egregious the offence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    DougSeal said:

    The issue is likely boils down to “was that bullying”. The word (unlike harassment) doesn’t have a statutory definition. One person’s bullying is another’s strong management. I’ve made a career out of trying to persuade people that actions lie one side or the other of the line.

    I used the B-word once, in a report about a colleague’s behaviour. It all escalated very quickly!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,502
    Sandpit said:

    Isn’t it a shame that people don’t get sacked like Ed Balls used to sack people

    You mean the occasion Ed Balls sacked someone in such a stupid manner that, though they deserved sacking, they ended up with a payout for unfair dismissal?
    Sharon Shoesmith, and from memory she got close to a million as a payoff. Plus all the legal fees the government had to pay. You can’t sack senior CS in the same way the PM can sack a minister, there’s a process to follow no matter how egregious the offence.
    Oddly enough we live in a country subject to the rule of law. Politicians have a strange way of recalling this when it helps them but not otherwise.
This discussion has been closed.