Categories
From Mike Smithson – a personal note – politicalbetting.com
From Mike Smithson – a personal note – politicalbetting.com
Just to say that I’m not able to post at the moment for family matters. Hopefully I’ll return quite soon.
2
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I hope you haven't jinxed the entire polity of the UK by leaving TSE in charge.
And I’m away this weekend as well.
I’m predicting Sturgeon and Sunak to be arrested this week.
The Dura Ace Interregnum would be....unforgettable.
What’s not to like?
Maybe we could add a VONC in the Government
Joining the chorus of good wishes for Mike and all who Mike loves.
Conducted under AV.
MalcolmG will be desperately hunting for work within hours to pay the fine....
Best wishes and see you soon.
TBH I wasn't expecting this one either, but here we are. Instinctively I think this is oversight rather than corruption, but that still doesn't make it right.
Westminster VI (16 April):
Labour 44% (–)
Conservative 32% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (–)
Reform UK 4% (-2)
Green 4% (-1)
SNP 4% (+1)
Other 1% (-1)
Changes +/- 9 April
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1647993437726072836?s=46
I'm think Labour 41% and Conservative 37%. Maybe a little bit of tactical voting on top, but not extensively so.
Surely we need at least 1 discussion / vote on the most appropriate version of AV to be used before making such a serious decision.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1647994630904897536?t=mBQQFTLEEZ2MyryF2PboTw&s=19
Simple 'Time for a change' might be the major factor, plus I reckon RefUK will harvest more nutters away from the Tories when it comes down to it; more than Lab will lose to the Greens.
I had a drink with a lady friend who has come to loathe the Tories in recent months, and was a definite potential switcher to Starmer
She has switched back to the Tories. Because she likes Sunak. "He just looks like he can get things done"
They were totally stupid, certainly the first one
Four days later, she did.
Politically, it seems a different world to where we are today.
Especially if the LibDems start putting themselves about a bit.
Westminster VI, 2019 Conservative voters (16 April):
Conservative 63% (+1)
Don't Know 15% (+4)
Labour 13% (-2)
Reform 5% (–)
Other 6% (-2)
Changes +/- 9 Apr
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1647994630904897536?
Look how close Con voters came to being nearly as likely to vote Labour as Con under the Trussterf*ck….
I feel in the last week or so that the election campaign has started.
It's going to get tight as the Tories are over the worst of the end Boris/Truss era. And they will start polling better than they deserve.
SKS may have to risk trying to win rather than trying to not lose. Sunak intends to win this if he can.
It's going to be an 18 month long Grand National, with fallers and injuries.
It was interesting a Sky correspondent reporting on the split in the NHS unions said that it could help the government UNFORTUNATELY
I do not use capitals normally but it gives an insight into some journalist's mindset
He is so remarkably uninspiring, and doesn't exude great competence, more middle management meh. Nor does he have any ideas, ever
He could suffer in debates; it is just about possible to see him boring Britain into voting Tory again. Tho I still expect a Labour win
My base assumption is that GE2024 results in 80%+ of 2019 Tory support coming back.
Sunak stood in for Johnson in some of the 2019 general election debates. So he has previous.
Starmer's challenge was worsened by going up 2-0 at half time, faced with the impossible task to hold that lead for two years. Human psychology means that the gap will narrow and 2-2 entering the election campaign is likely IMO.
That said, my gut is that Labour will come out ahead in the end. It will be unthinkable for the Tories to be rewarded with another term given what they have done and the devastating consequences for the country if that goes unpunished by the electorate.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmers-not-as-centrist-as-hed-like-you-to-think-6209tvt72
I can't see many Conservative voters not noticing that as they finally come to cast their ballots.
This 1 is easy - within 2 weeks of the PM visiting and having a photo alongside the pothole.
(1) The SNP down to the 35% mark in Scotland, with the major beneficiary being the Labour Party, but with the Conservatives and LDs also benefitting somewhat.
(2) The LDs on 12% (as in 2019), rather than the 7.4% they got in 2017.
(3) A modest return of tactical voting.
What would that give us? Con 305, Lab 305, SNP 25, LD 18?
I don't think that's an impossible outcome. Indeed, it's perfectly possible.
But it also makes it clear how significant the hill is for the Conservatives. Even if they pass the Labour Party, and get back to the levels of 2017, then the decline of the SNP, the LDs doing somewhat better and a bit of tactical voting, means they are struggling to get much above 300.
On the other hand: the decline of the SNP (and the fact the LDs will be lucky to get past 20 seats) makes it a hell of a lot easier for someone (anyone) to get a majority.
But the campaign has started. Boat people nonsense; BBC reporting a sudden outbreak of optimism among random UK companies; terrible attack ads; compulsory maths for everyone apart from old Tory voters (after the election). Time to start watching the Sun carefully. They back winners.
UK-wide: an increase in the Greens to 5.5%, LDs uptick to 14%, Reform a non-event to 2.5%, and Labour on 40% with Tories on 37%.
Result:
Labour 317
Cons 273
LD 19
SNP 19
Greens 1
Plaid 3
Others 18
Probably Labour minority with LD S&C. Seems plausible.
Has anyone considered the possibility Labour could win 20+ seats in Scotland yet still ultimately lose the election?
Con 37%
Lab 36%
Lib 15%
(with SNP leading Labour 38% to 32% in Scotland)
CON 296 (30 Short)
LAB 282
LD 18
SNP 30
Maybe Kemi?
I can't change your mind or your vote, but I think you're misguided and that you're going to be bitterly disappointed.
That makes masses of difference to the final Government that results.
My services, and career-best fees, are going to be heavily used.
Of course once the euphoria dissipates (and my head usually plays the opening to "Rock and Roll" by Led Zeppelin in celebration to big wins), the horror sets in that we actually have to build and deliver this thing.
None of it is rocket science. But with this company it feels like my cat-herding skills will be tested to destruction.
The idea of him waffling at me for five years. Jeez. And he's knocking on, and looks it. He's not a fount of youthful energy and new ideas. He is The DULLNESS
The DULLNESS was an advantage when faced with Truss, and, to an extent, Boris
But Sunak is also quite DULL without being so horribly DULL, and Sunak has a mild likeability, and - also, crucially - a modest sense of energy. Optimism. Ambition
Hmm
Sunak will need an awful lot of luck - inflation plunging, some sudden growth as China reopens, unexepcted seats from the SNP, maybe a few gaffes by Labour - to get near a "win", but I no longer see it as entirely impossible. Just highly unlikely
If the LDs are +3 and the Conservatives -7 points, then I think the LDs will do slightly better than that:
Hazel Grove, for example, has the LDs 10 points behind, but with a big Labour vote to squeeze.
It’s Labour’s “turn” to get two terms in a row (I broadly think alternating sets of two terms each is best for the country) but I reckon that mix might easily see the Tories back in quickly.
Taranto accuses ProPublica of getting some facts wrong, and misunderstanding the rules. In the past I have found him to be a competent, honest journalist, but I haven't followed this story closely enough to have an opinion on who is right.
But I will say that leftwing journalists in the US have become less confined to mere facts, in recent years. (Example: the 1619 project.) Most haven't reached Tucker Carlson levels, but they are heading in his direction.