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Abandoning Housing targets – Sunak’s election losing mistake? – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    Looks like your vitriolic campaign against Starmer is having some impact - well done.
    I think he is entirely capable of screwing it himself

    "My Labour" has crept in a lot recently from SKS

    last person I remember using "my" so much was one of your personal favourites from memory

    Jo (my LDs) Swinson and look what happened to her
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    Ironic that at least part of the decline is due to the separatists in government...
    The population stopped declining in 2010. What party took over at that time?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,675
    A

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks

    We just have a Government that is trying to appease voters who want us to be...
    And, given that we have one of the most liberal migration regimes in Europe, which has resulted in the UK population growing much faster than almost every other country in Europe, surely the voters are allowed, at some point, to say: Hey, we've taken enough people now, please Stop

    That's not racist, that's a natural reaction. Our rivers are full of shit because our infrastructure can't cope, our young people can't buy houses because the pressure on housing is so intense, the idea that none of this is related to the fastest growing population in our recorded history is for the birds. Of course it is a factor. Not the ONLY factor, but a major factor
    It's not racist to want a stricter border policy. Some people might get racist in doing so, but the principle is not. Thats been a common error from some supportive of liberal migration policies, of which I am one. Countries can reasonably say no to people coming in.

    Genuine refugees get caught in the middle of such a debate, the poor buggers.
    And genuine refugees constitute a pretty small proportion of immigration to the UK.

    From https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/

    "Asylum seekers made up around 6% of immigrants to the UK in 2019."

    Although...

    "In the year ending June 2022, the latest period for which we have estimates, asylum seekers and refugees made up approximately 18% of immigrants to the UK. This includes arrivals under the Ukraine schemes, the Afghan relocation and resettlement schemes, arrivals in small boats, other resettled persons and arrivals on family reunion visas (around 190,000 individuals in total). If including the British National (Overseas) scheme in the category of humanitarian routes, up to 25% of immigration in that year would fall into that category."

    Also note:

    "In 2021, there were around 9 asylum applications for every 10,000 people living in the UK. Across the EU27 there were 14 asylum applications for every 10,000 people. The UK was therefore below the average among EU countries for asylum applications per head of population, ranking 16th among EU27 countries plus the UK on this measure."
    Yup - quite a lot of people come here to live each year.

    The number of actual asylum seekers is a small portion of that.

    From personal experience, people use the asylum route for gaining legal status last, and only if they can’t use another mechanism/legal route. If nothing alse the asylum route is, I believe, the most complex, lengthy and expensive way.
    How many people leave?
    Lots. I couldn't find simple stats on this, but you could start with section 3 of https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-december-2021/how-many-people-do-we-grant-asylum-or-protection-to#outcomes-of-asylum-applications
    If anyone from ONS is lurking here, I beg you to make your website easier to use. I can never find anything.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    edited April 2023

    Nigelb said:
    But will anything happen? He can be impeached, but the Republicans in the Senate won't vote to kick him out while Biden is around to appoint his successor.
    Yes.

    And there is nothing that he could do to get enough Republicans to vote to convict.

    Getting rid of a Supreme Court Justice is close to impossible. Which is one of many reasons why it was such a terrible idea to turn the court into a legislative body.
    SCOTUS, due to Marbury effectively decides how the US constitution should be read.
    They watch the watchers, and when you get a court as ideological as this one..
    Marshall's famous quote beloved of the federalist school of thought in US law was the original troll.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    Eabhal said:

    A

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks

    We just have a Government that is trying to appease voters who want us to be...
    And, given that we have one of the most liberal migration regimes in Europe, which has resulted in the UK population growing much faster than almost every other country in Europe, surely the voters are allowed, at some point, to say: Hey, we've taken enough people now, please Stop

    That's not racist, that's a natural reaction. Our rivers are full of shit because our infrastructure can't cope, our young people can't buy houses because the pressure on housing is so intense, the idea that none of this is related to the fastest growing population in our recorded history is for the birds. Of course it is a factor. Not the ONLY factor, but a major factor
    It's not racist to want a stricter border policy. Some people might get racist in doing so, but the principle is not. Thats been a common error from some supportive of liberal migration policies, of which I am one. Countries can reasonably say no to people coming in.

    Genuine refugees get caught in the middle of such a debate, the poor buggers.
    And genuine refugees constitute a pretty small proportion of immigration to the UK.

    From https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/

    "Asylum seekers made up around 6% of immigrants to the UK in 2019."

    Although...

    "In the year ending June 2022, the latest period for which we have estimates, asylum seekers and refugees made up approximately 18% of immigrants to the UK. This includes arrivals under the Ukraine schemes, the Afghan relocation and resettlement schemes, arrivals in small boats, other resettled persons and arrivals on family reunion visas (around 190,000 individuals in total). If including the British National (Overseas) scheme in the category of humanitarian routes, up to 25% of immigration in that year would fall into that category."

    Also note:

    "In 2021, there were around 9 asylum applications for every 10,000 people living in the UK. Across the EU27 there were 14 asylum applications for every 10,000 people. The UK was therefore below the average among EU countries for asylum applications per head of population, ranking 16th among EU27 countries plus the UK on this measure."
    Yup - quite a lot of people come here to live each year.

    The number of actual asylum seekers is a small portion of that.

    From personal experience, people use the asylum route for gaining legal status last, and only if they can’t use another mechanism/legal route. If nothing alse the asylum route is, I believe, the most complex, lengthy and expensive way.
    How many people leave?
    Lots. I couldn't find simple stats on this, but you could start with section 3 of https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-december-2021/how-many-people-do-we-grant-asylum-or-protection-to#outcomes-of-asylum-applications
    If anyone from ONS is lurking here, I beg you to make your website easier to use. I can never find anything.
    That page is the responsibility of the Home Office rather than the ONS, but I agree with your broader point!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087

    Nigelb said:
    But will anything happen? He can be impeached, but the Republicans in the Senate won't vote to kick him out while Biden is around to appoint his successor.
    We'll see.
    The majority on the court might decide it's not tenable to have a criminal on the bench.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Stocky said:

    Reading this mornings comments, is the SNP about to embark on a rebrand? Drop the Nationalist to become just the Scottish Party?

    The Nits would cover it?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,055
    edited April 2023
    eek said:

    biggles said:

    dixiedean said:

    biggles said:

    6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    40/30/10 Lab/Con/Lib in the Local elections as national equivalent share seems quite feasible. Compared to the 2019 elections, that might not “feel” like the Tory drubbing that has been priced in. Add in Coronation/Bank Holiday “feel good” vibes and the media’s longed for “come back kid” might be on for Rishi.

    Chuck in the first signs of supermarket price cuts and Tory high command may go into the summer in good spirits.
    Is anyone predicting imminent price cuts?
    Look at the price of milk (literally). There’s the stirrings of supermarket movement. I presume some food prices (like milk) are linked to commodities like fuel that have actually dropped and so there’s space for real cuts. But the last bit is a guess - the price moves are observed fact.
    Milk won't be reducing in price - until very recently the farmgate price of milk wasn't much below production cost.

    Even now it's only 50p per litre see https://ahdb.org.uk/dairy/uk-farmgate-milk-prices for prices - which means that there at £1.75 for 2 litres (which is what I paid yesterday) there is only 75p to cover all the transportation and packaging costs.
    I was stating a fact, not speculating. Milk prices are dropping.

    Hopefully a straw in a wider wind.

    https://www.farminguk.com/news/amp/farmers-not-affected-by-tesco-s-milk-price-reductions_62409.html
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    But will anything happen? He can be impeached, but the Republicans in the Senate won't vote to kick him out while Biden is around to appoint his successor.
    We'll see.
    The majority on the court might decide it's not tenable to have a criminal on the bench.
    Well, Brett Kavanaugh got on and the evidence against him was pretty strong...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    Vanilla is playing tricks

    Yes

    Just had a scoop it jumped out the bowl and hid under my laptop table
  • Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    Question. If it as you say in Europe, why do they take so many more refugees than we do?

    Our whining about refugees would be relevant if we didn't take a much smaller number and percentage than France or Germany or Greece or...
    No-one gives a fuck about the relative numbers compared to France, Germany or Greece mate.

    They care about the fact we've totally lost control of the Channel and can't determine who lands here.
    Question. How doe the latest totemic "solution" - quitting the EHRC - solve that? Is the reason we can't drag the boats to France the EHRC? Is the reason we have an endless backlog because we spend £0.02 on the Home Office the EHRC? How about our lack of places to put failed asylum seekers before they are deported back from whence they came or Rwanda?

    This government is shit. And they are pandering to people who don't know how it works to blame everyone else but themselves. But it doesn't work any more. They care that we have zero control. And the government promised them control and can't deliver.

    Yet we are supposed to still vote Tory?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577

    6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    Looks like your vitriolic campaign against Starmer is having some impact - well done.
    I think he is entirely capable of screwing it himself

    "My Labour" has crept in a lot recently from SKS

    last person I remember using "my" so much was one of your personal favourites from memory

    Jo (my LDs) Swinson and look what happened to her
    Someone else who had delusions of being PM....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,087
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    But will anything happen? He can be impeached, but the Republicans in the Senate won't vote to kick him out while Biden is around to appoint his successor.
    Yes.

    And there is nothing that he could do to get enough Republicans to vote to convict.

    Getting rid of a Supreme Court Justice is close to impossible. Which is one of many reasons why it was such a terrible idea to turn the court into a legislative body.
    SCOTUS, due to Marbury effectively decides how the US constitution should be read.
    They watch the watchers, and when you get a court as ideological as this one..
    Courts have been ideological before.
    It's when you have justices displaying open contempt for the law itself that things start to break down.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:
    But will anything happen? He can be impeached, but the Republicans in the Senate won't vote to kick him out while Biden is around to appoint his successor.
    We'll see.
    The majority on the court might decide it's not tenable to have a criminal on the bench.
    Three of them might - highly doubtful about the others, will Thomas even recuse himself ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    Question. If it as you say in Europe, why do they take so many more refugees than we do?

    Our whining about refugees would be relevant if we didn't take a much smaller number and percentage than France or Germany or Greece or...
    No-one gives a fuck about the relative numbers compared to France, Germany or Greece mate.

    They care about the fact we've totally lost control of the Channel and can't determine who lands here.
    Question. How doe the latest totemic "solution" - quitting the EHRC - solve that? Is the reason we can't drag the boats to France the EHRC? Is the reason we have an endless backlog because we spend £0.02 on the Home Office the EHRC? How about our lack of places to put failed asylum seekers before they are deported back from whence they came or Rwanda?

    This government is shit. And they are pandering to people who don't know how it works to blame everyone else but themselves. But it doesn't work any more. They care that we have zero control. And the government promised them control and can't deliver.

    Yet we are supposed to still vote Tory?
    From https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-december-2021/how-many-people-do-we-grant-asylum-or-protection-to

    "In 2021, there were 14,572 initial decisions made on asylum applications [...]

    "Almost three quarters (72%) of the initial decisions in 2021 were grants (of asylum, humanitarian protection or alternative forms of leave), which is substantially higher than the previous years. For much of the past decade, around a third of initial decisions were grants. The grant rate in 2021 is the highest grant rate in over thirty years (since 82% in 1990).

    "The low number of refusals in 2021 is predominantly related to a 98% decrease in third country refusals (from 2,952 in 2020 to 50 in 2021). A third country refusal refers to the UK determining that it is not the country responsible for considering a person’s asylum claim, to return them to the safe third country in which the person was previously present or with which they have some other connection. The use of this decision outcome has been affected by the UK leaving the EU. Prior to leaving the EU, the UK processed most third country cases in accordance with the Dublin regulation (which applies to all EU member states as well as Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein); however, this ceased to apply to the UK from 1 January 2021. New inadmissibility rules, which in part aim to replace the previous operation of the Dublin regulation, were introduced on 1 January 2021 (see the Inadmissibility section of this release below).

    [...]

    "64 individuals were served with inadmissibility decisions, meaning the UK would not admit the asylum claim for consideration in the UK system, because another country was considered to be responsible for the claim, owing to the claimant’s previous presence in, or connection to a safe country

    "There were 11 enforced returns of individuals considered for removal on inadmissibility grounds"
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    In that case why does the UK take in proportionally fewer asylum seekers, refugees and migrants than much of Europe?
    Because it doesn't

    in the last 20-30 years the UK has taken in many more migrants than most European countries. This is the main reason our population has expanded much faster than our peers


    Italy population 1993: 56.83m

    Italy population 2023:60.3m


    Germany population 1993: 81.16m

    Germany population 2023: 84.5m


    UK population 1993: 57.7m

    UK population 2023: 68.9m


    If you compare us with central and eastern Europe the comparison is much more stark. So you're talking total shite
    Are those numbers right? At this rate we'll be the largest behind Turkey before too long.
    Those numbers are absolutely right. You're not dumb, how can you not be aware of this? The UK population has grown extremely fast in recent decades, almost entirely from immigration ("native" birth rates are below replacement level)

    Here's a list of countries by population. It's not as accurate as individual national stats but it gives a good sense

    It also gives population growth rate:


    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/


    Britain is the fastest growing large nation in Europe
    I knew we had grown a lot, I just did not know it was apparently proportionately so much more than others
    Because we have an extremely liberal migration policy, which really kicked off under New Labour in 1997 (with Eastern Europe) and which has been continued under the Tories (even after Brexit)

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks, and in direct opposition to the truth. It's just insane lefties who refuse to accept this because they like to hate racist Brexit Britain

    I'm not arguing the pros and cons of migration (they are complex and many and go both ways) but this debate is best done in possession of actual facts, rather than Gary Lineker's opinions
    It would be interesting to contrast the figures for the UK as a whole over than period with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    The Eurostat numbers have Scotland at 5.117 million in 1993 and 5.454 million in 2019.
    Immigration into Scotland has certainly been slower than immigration into England, indeed it is arguable that (unlike crowded southern England) Scotland could do with MORE people

    I have sympathy for Scot Nats who want independence for this reason: so they can have the power to boost their population. However they would still have the problem of attracting people to live in Wick, and if they rejoined the EU and got FoM they might find that everyone simply flees to Portugal. Or Sweden
    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    In 1707 Scotland: England was 1:5. Now's it's 1:10.
    Yes, and - as I say - I understand this emotional argument. It is probably the single BEST argument for indy, given that the economic arguments are so shaky. Scotland could then control and boost its population, if that is desired. Tho recent events in Ireland suggest that "Celtic" nations with relatively large amounts of space per head do not, in fact, take kindly to large scale immigration, when it finally happens
    I don't think it's that simple. Scotland has been part of the UK while the UK has experienced a lot of immigration, but not many of the immigrants have gone to Scotland. An independent Scotland might struggle, at least at first, to create the economic opportunities to attract immigration.

    It took a long time for the Republic of Ireland to reverse its population decline after independence and net migration longer to contribute to population growth.

    Scotland isn't post-famine Ireland, but the SNP haven't shown much awareness of what choices a government of an independent nation of five million has to make to pay its way in the world. You might argue that their economic plan for independence has a few Trussian undertones.
  • Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks

    We just have a Government that is trying to appease voters who want us to be...
    And, given that we have one of the most liberal migration regimes in Europe, which has resulted in the UK population growing much faster than almost every other country in Europe, surely the voters are allowed, at some point, to say: Hey, we've taken enough people now, please Stop

    That's not racist, that's a natural reaction. Our rivers are full of shit because our infrastructure can't cope, our young people can't buy houses because the pressure on housing is so intense, the idea that none of this is related to the fastest growing population in our recorded history is for the birds. Of course it is a factor. Not the ONLY factor, but a major factor
    It isn't racist to talk about migration. I have to wonder though why your response to the fact that we take so few asylum seekers was to say that we take so many legal migrants. And this is post Brexit so it isn't EU citizens wandering in, this is people our government is granting residency to.

    If I was a Brexit voter whose primary focus was to stop foreigners coming here and taking the jobs, would I not be a bit annoyed with the stats you quoted? People voted to Take Back Control of the border. Which meant padlock it shut. So why is it more widely open than ever???
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    edited April 2023
    On topic: By coincidence, this morning I happened to see this article on how the state of Montana is planning to cope with its housing crisis: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/montana-republicans-are-appealing-to-anti-california-sentiment-to-pass-a-slew-of-bipartisan-pro-housing-policies/ar-AA19QOZz?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=5ccf562c90bb4a47966429d436bd6d06&ei=82

    Sample: "Montana Republicans are aligned behind zoning reform and other pro-housing policies.
    Montana's facing a housing shortage and affordability crisis and is passing a slew of bills to fight it.
    Pro-housing activists have messaged the policies as fighting California-style urban sprawl.
    The deep red state of Montana is full of Republican YIMBYs, and they're using the time-honored bipartisan tradition of mocking California to alleviate their state's housing affordability crisis."

    As far as I can tell from the article, they are doing rational things, such as making it easy to build "accessory dwelling units", ADUs for short -- which can be bought for as little as 50K.

    There is, by now, a decades-old tradition of appealing to voters in other states by bashing California. Maybe Montanans will bring back that old slogan: "Don't Calfornicate Montana". (Which I perhaps shouldn't like, but do.)
  • eek said:

    biggles said:

    dixiedean said:

    biggles said:

    6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    40/30/10 Lab/Con/Lib in the Local elections as national equivalent share seems quite feasible. Compared to the 2019 elections, that might not “feel” like the Tory drubbing that has been priced in. Add in Coronation/Bank Holiday “feel good” vibes and the media’s longed for “come back kid” might be on for Rishi.

    Chuck in the first signs of supermarket price cuts and Tory high command may go into the summer in good spirits.
    Is anyone predicting imminent price cuts?
    Look at the price of milk (literally). There’s the stirrings of supermarket movement. I presume some food prices (like milk) are linked to commodities like fuel that have actually dropped and so there’s space for real cuts. But the last bit is a guess - the price moves are observed fact.
    Milk won't be reducing in price - until very recently the farmgate price of milk wasn't much below production cost.

    Even now it's only 50p per litre see https://ahdb.org.uk/dairy/uk-farmgate-milk-prices for prices - which means that there at £1.75 for 2 litres (which is what I paid yesterday) there is only 75p to cover all the transportation and packaging costs.
    Milk used to be a loss-leader. So the price could go back down if the supermarkets gave it away. As they did for a long time when the price point seemed anchored to 99p for a 4 pint carton.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr
  • DialupDialup Posts: 561

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    Thank you for posting. It looks like just noise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    In that case why does the UK take in proportionally fewer asylum seekers, refugees and migrants than much of Europe?
    Because it doesn't

    in the last 20-30 years the UK has taken in many more migrants than most European countries. This is the main reason our population has expanded much faster than our peers


    Italy population 1993: 56.83m

    Italy population 2023:60.3m


    Germany population 1993: 81.16m

    Germany population 2023: 84.5m


    UK population 1993: 57.7m

    UK population 2023: 68.9m


    If you compare us with central and eastern Europe the comparison is much more stark. So you're talking total shite
    Are those numbers right? At this rate we'll be the largest behind Turkey before too long.
    Those numbers are absolutely right. You're not dumb, how can you not be aware of this? The UK population has grown extremely fast in recent decades, almost entirely from immigration ("native" birth rates are below replacement level)

    Here's a list of countries by population. It's not as accurate as individual national stats but it gives a good sense

    It also gives population growth rate:


    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/


    Britain is the fastest growing large nation in Europe
    I knew we had grown a lot, I just did not know it was apparently proportionately so much more than others
    Because we have an extremely liberal migration policy, which really kicked off under New Labour in 1997 (with Eastern Europe) and which has been continued under the Tories (even after Brexit)

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks, and in direct opposition to the truth. It's just insane lefties who refuse to accept this because they like to hate racist Brexit Britain

    I'm not arguing the pros and cons of migration (they are complex and many and go both ways) but this debate is best done in possession of actual facts, rather than Gary Lineker's opinions
    It would be interesting to contrast the figures for the UK as a whole over than period with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    The Eurostat numbers have Scotland at 5.117 million in 1993 and 5.454 million in 2019.
    Immigration into Scotland has certainly been slower than immigration into England, indeed it is arguable that (unlike crowded southern England) Scotland could do with MORE people

    I have sympathy for Scot Nats who want independence for this reason: so they can have the power to boost their population. However they would still have the problem of attracting people to live in Wick, and if they rejoined the EU and got FoM they might find that everyone simply flees to Portugal. Or Sweden
    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    In 1707 Scotland: England was 1:5. Now's it's 1:10.
    It's notable that Ireland has in recent years not had much trouble in attracting immigrants and that's despite being wetter than Scotland.

    It took nearly a century to reach that state, though.
    So Scotland needs a century of freedom to do so too I guess.
  • Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    Those posters have worked for Starmer.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    edited April 2023

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    So the only Polling Company, with fieldwork entirely in April, that had LAB lead at 20 or above now has lead up to 23

    Rishi is mad letting NHS strikes go unsettled without even appearing to try to resolve.

    Nearly too late for LEs now
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    ...
    Dialup said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    Thank you for posting. It looks like just noise.
    A swing to Labour is noise, a swing to Con is a sea change?

    FWIW I suspect here you are right. Either that or "outlier".
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,751
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    Ironic that at least part of the decline is due to the separatists in government...
    Yes, if Sindy ever happened - or looked like happening - one of the first big consequences would be large finance/legal firms (and so on) removing themselves from Edinburgh and Glasgow to London. So the first effect would be net emigration. And this would continue if the iScottish economy really wobbled
    I think there could be serious capital flight and relocation of Scottish-based business which consider the UK as their home market. A "hard" Scexit involving currency and tariff barriers with rUK could be catastrophic. The Sturgeon/Yousaf approach, to decry "Tory austerity" and, presumably, whack up income tax on high earners would turn it from being merely catastrophic to cataclysmic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    DougSeal said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    BJO fans please explain.
    DougSeal said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    BJO fans please explain.
    Government appearing not to give a fuck about NHS strikes

    I think you will find i said earlier that would impact next set of Polls
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303
    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    In that case why does the UK take in proportionally fewer asylum seekers, refugees and migrants than much of Europe?
    Because it doesn't

    in the last 20-30 years the UK has taken in many more migrants than most European countries. This is the main reason our population has expanded much faster than our peers


    Italy population 1993: 56.83m

    Italy population 2023:60.3m


    Germany population 1993: 81.16m

    Germany population 2023: 84.5m


    UK population 1993: 57.7m

    UK population 2023: 68.9m


    If you compare us with central and eastern Europe the comparison is much more stark. So you're talking total shite
    Are those numbers right? At this rate we'll be the largest behind Turkey before too long.
    Those numbers are absolutely right. You're not dumb, how can you not be aware of this? The UK population has grown extremely fast in recent decades, almost entirely from immigration ("native" birth rates are below replacement level)

    Here's a list of countries by population. It's not as accurate as individual national stats but it gives a good sense

    It also gives population growth rate:


    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/


    Britain is the fastest growing large nation in Europe
    I knew we had grown a lot, I just did not know it was apparently proportionately so much more than others
    Because we have an extremely liberal migration policy, which really kicked off under New Labour in 1997 (with Eastern Europe) and which has been continued under the Tories (even after Brexit)

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks, and in direct opposition to the truth. It's just insane lefties who refuse to accept this because they like to hate racist Brexit Britain

    I'm not arguing the pros and cons of migration (they are complex and many and go both ways) but this debate is best done in possession of actual facts, rather than Gary Lineker's opinions
    It would be interesting to contrast the figures for the UK as a whole over than period with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    The Eurostat numbers have Scotland at 5.117 million in 1993 and 5.454 million in 2019.
    Immigration into Scotland has certainly been slower than immigration into England, indeed it is arguable that (unlike crowded southern England) Scotland could do with MORE people

    I have sympathy for Scot Nats who want independence for this reason: so they can have the power to boost their population. However they would still have the problem of attracting people to live in Wick, and if they rejoined the EU and got FoM they might find that everyone simply flees to Portugal. Or Sweden
    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    In 1707 Scotland: England was 1:5. Now's it's 1:10.
    It's notable that Ireland has in recent years not had much trouble in attracting immigrants and that's despite being wetter than Scotland.

    It took nearly a century to reach that state, though.
    So Scotland needs a century of freedom to do so too I guess.
    Why? With the current level of power of the Scottish government and several hundred K of migrants per year, combined with a housing cost crisis down South - why can't they make a pitch?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    In that case why does the UK take in proportionally fewer asylum seekers, refugees and migrants than much of Europe?
    Because it doesn't

    in the last 20-30 years the UK has taken in many more migrants than most European countries. This is the main reason our population has expanded much faster than our peers


    Italy population 1993: 56.83m

    Italy population 2023:60.3m


    Germany population 1993: 81.16m

    Germany population 2023: 84.5m


    UK population 1993: 57.7m

    UK population 2023: 68.9m


    If you compare us with central and eastern Europe the comparison is much more stark. So you're talking total shite
    Are those numbers right? At this rate we'll be the largest behind Turkey before too long.
    Those numbers are absolutely right. You're not dumb, how can you not be aware of this? The UK population has grown extremely fast in recent decades, almost entirely from immigration ("native" birth rates are below replacement level)

    Here's a list of countries by population. It's not as accurate as individual national stats but it gives a good sense

    It also gives population growth rate:


    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/


    Britain is the fastest growing large nation in Europe
    I knew we had grown a lot, I just did not know it was apparently proportionately so much more than others
    Because we have an extremely liberal migration policy, which really kicked off under New Labour in 1997 (with Eastern Europe) and which has been continued under the Tories (even after Brexit)

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks, and in direct opposition to the truth. It's just insane lefties who refuse to accept this because they like to hate racist Brexit Britain

    I'm not arguing the pros and cons of migration (they are complex and many and go both ways) but this debate is best done in possession of actual facts, rather than Gary Lineker's opinions
    It would be interesting to contrast the figures for the UK as a whole over than period with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    The Eurostat numbers have Scotland at 5.117 million in 1993 and 5.454 million in 2019.
    Immigration into Scotland has certainly been slower than immigration into England, indeed it is arguable that (unlike crowded southern England) Scotland could do with MORE people

    I have sympathy for Scot Nats who want independence for this reason: so they can have the power to boost their population. However they would still have the problem of attracting people to live in Wick, and if they rejoined the EU and got FoM they might find that everyone simply flees to Portugal. Or Sweden
    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    In 1707 Scotland: England was 1:5. Now's it's 1:10.
    It's notable that Ireland has in recent years not had much trouble in attracting immigrants and that's despite being wetter than Scotland.

    It took nearly a century to reach that state, though.
    So Scotland needs a century of freedom to do so too I guess.
    Well, maybe. A lot of Ireland's success has been down to sucking up to/attracting investment from the Americans. Would Scotland be able to do the same?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    BJO fans please explain.
    DougSeal said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    BJO fans please explain.
    Government appearing not to give a fuck about NHS strikes

    I think you will find i said earlier that would impact next set of Polls
    I was asking your fans to explain. Not you.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    Girls Aloud, I've just discovered, did a version of their single "Can't Speak French"... in French!

    https://open.spotify.com/track/3nTA8SnSPcK8uYkG7azKKQ
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    7 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44,48 Ave 44.71

    Con 27,30.30,26.30,25 Ave 28.28

    Lead 16.43

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 3.95
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Eabhal said:

    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    Ironic that at least part of the decline is due to the separatists in government...
    Yes, if Sindy ever happened - or looked like happening - one of the first big consequences would be large finance/legal firms (and so on) removing themselves from Edinburgh and Glasgow to London. So the first effect would be net emigration. And this would continue if the iScottish economy really wobbled
    I think there could be serious capital flight and relocation of Scottish-based business which consider the UK as their home market. A "hard" Scexit involving currency and tariff barriers with rUK could be catastrophic. The Sturgeon/Yousaf approach, to decry "Tory austerity" and, presumably, whack up income tax on high earners would turn it from being merely catastrophic to cataclysmic.
    The threat of Quebecois independence permanently and definitively moved the centre of the Canadian economy from Montreal to Toronto. As I understand it, Montreal has never really recovered

    The same is happening to Barcelona vis a vis Madrid. And of course London has leaked business to Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt, etc, post Brexit

    Separatism has a high price, in the short medium term (in the long term it can be fine: see Ireland)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    But will anything happen? He can be impeached, but the Republicans in the Senate won't vote to kick him out while Biden is around to appoint his successor.
    Yes.

    And there is nothing that he could do to get enough Republicans to vote to convict.

    Getting rid of a Supreme Court Justice is close to impossible. Which is one of many reasons why it was such a terrible idea to turn the court into a legislative body.
    SCOTUS, due to Marbury effectively decides how the US constitution should be read.
    They watch the watchers, and when you get a court as ideological as this one..
    Marshall's famous quote beloved of the federalist school of thought in US law was the original troll.
    "They watch the watchers"

    {Plato enters the chat, wandering about in giant clown shoes}
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Leon said:

    Separatism has a high price, in the short medium term (in the long term it can be fine: see Ireland)

    In the long term Ireland embraced integration with the EU to solve its separatist economic damage.

    I wonder what the UK should do...
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,751

    kle4 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    In that case why does the UK take in proportionally fewer asylum seekers, refugees and migrants than much of Europe?
    Because it doesn't

    in the last 20-30 years the UK has taken in many more migrants than most European countries. This is the main reason our population has expanded much faster than our peers


    Italy population 1993: 56.83m

    Italy population 2023:60.3m


    Germany population 1993: 81.16m

    Germany population 2023: 84.5m


    UK population 1993: 57.7m

    UK population 2023: 68.9m


    If you compare us with central and eastern Europe the comparison is much more stark. So you're talking total shite
    Are those numbers right? At this rate we'll be the largest behind Turkey before too long.
    Those numbers are absolutely right. You're not dumb, how can you not be aware of this? The UK population has grown extremely fast in recent decades, almost entirely from immigration ("native" birth rates are below replacement level)

    Here's a list of countries by population. It's not as accurate as individual national stats but it gives a good sense

    It also gives population growth rate:


    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/


    Britain is the fastest growing large nation in Europe
    I knew we had grown a lot, I just did not know it was apparently proportionately so much more than others
    Because we have an extremely liberal migration policy, which really kicked off under New Labour in 1997 (with Eastern Europe) and which has been continued under the Tories (even after Brexit)

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks, and in direct opposition to the truth. It's just insane lefties who refuse to accept this because they like to hate racist Brexit Britain

    I'm not arguing the pros and cons of migration (they are complex and many and go both ways) but this debate is best done in possession of actual facts, rather than Gary Lineker's opinions
    It would be interesting to contrast the figures for the UK as a whole over than period with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    The Eurostat numbers have Scotland at 5.117 million in 1993 and 5.454 million in 2019.
    Immigration into Scotland has certainly been slower than immigration into England, indeed it is arguable that (unlike crowded southern England) Scotland could do with MORE people

    I have sympathy for Scot Nats who want independence for this reason: so they can have the power to boost their population. However they would still have the problem of attracting people to live in Wick, and if they rejoined the EU and got FoM they might find that everyone simply flees to Portugal. Or Sweden
    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    In 1707 Scotland: England was 1:5. Now's it's 1:10.
    It's notable that Ireland has in recent years not had much trouble in attracting immigrants and that's despite being wetter than Scotland.

    It took nearly a century to reach that state, though.
    So Scotland needs a century of freedom to do so too I guess.
    Well, maybe. A lot of Ireland's success has been down to sucking up to/attracting investment from the Americans. Would Scotland be able to do the same?
    If they were to mirror Ireland it would mean slashing taxes on business and attracting big bungs from the EU. Neither option seems very likely in an SNP-led Indy Scotland,given that a successful Indy Referendum would be based on persuading w/c Central Belt voters that the only thing preventing them getting them even more free stuff is Westminster control of the purse-strings.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    ...

    7 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44,48 Ave 44.71

    Con 27,30.30,26.30,25 Ave 28.28

    Lead 16.43

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 3.95

    ...or plus 1.5% for Labour in the last twenty minutes.

    Over the last month or two, the trend favours the Tories. Is there much else one can read into these polls yet?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    BJO fans please explain.
    DougSeal said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    BJO fans please explain.
    Government appearing not to give a fuck about NHS strikes

    I think you will find i said earlier that would impact next set of Polls
    I was asking your fans to explain. Not you.
    Mrs BJO does not post on here so I dont have any
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,794
    Have the EU agreed to send ammunition to Ukraine yet, or is France still preventing it?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,751
    The thoughts of Kenny Macaskill, former SNP Cabinet Secretary for Justice, and now Alba MP.

    https://kennymacaskillmp.scot/the-house-has-burned-down-13-april-2023

    "It’s only been a few weeks since I wrote that the House of Sturgeon was burning down. But it’s the Polis and not the Fire Brigade who turned up. Suggestions that it had nothing to do with her resignation are risible. Many knew and only the timing was unknown."

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    Why do I feel that this poll won't trigger reams of overanalysis and speculation about 'supermarket price cuts' at some undefined point in the future?

    Funny old world.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,372
    I just read that article in The Economist about US growth that was posted last night.

    It's puzzling, the US growth performance since 1990 has been the best of the rich countries. Yet, I've seem plenty of statistics which suggest that US median real incomes have hardly moved, in real terms, over that period.

    And, if growth is so good, where do the terrible numbers on life expectancy come from?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anywhere else in the world offer an instant hotel room for anyone who rocks up on their shores ?

    A good third of the population here (and they are the ones in key positions of power) want to roll out the red carpet for anyone who arrives here and claims the right to asylum because, again, that's how you show how Anti-Racist you are to your peer group. America has the same problem.

    Europe, by and large, and Australia does not. And New Zealand is too far away to be a problem.
    In that case why does the UK take in proportionally fewer asylum seekers, refugees and migrants than much of Europe?
    Because it doesn't

    in the last 20-30 years the UK has taken in many more migrants than most European countries. This is the main reason our population has expanded much faster than our peers


    Italy population 1993: 56.83m

    Italy population 2023:60.3m


    Germany population 1993: 81.16m

    Germany population 2023: 84.5m


    UK population 1993: 57.7m

    UK population 2023: 68.9m


    If you compare us with central and eastern Europe the comparison is much more stark. So you're talking total shite
    Are those numbers right? At this rate we'll be the largest behind Turkey before too long.
    Those numbers are absolutely right. You're not dumb, how can you not be aware of this? The UK population has grown extremely fast in recent decades, almost entirely from immigration ("native" birth rates are below replacement level)

    Here's a list of countries by population. It's not as accurate as individual national stats but it gives a good sense

    It also gives population growth rate:


    https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/


    Britain is the fastest growing large nation in Europe
    I knew we had grown a lot, I just did not know it was apparently proportionately so much more than others
    Because we have an extremely liberal migration policy, which really kicked off under New Labour in 1997 (with Eastern Europe) and which has been continued under the Tories (even after Brexit)

    The idea we are this racist insular place refusing to take incomers is utter bollocks, and in direct opposition to the truth. It's just insane lefties who refuse to accept this because they like to hate racist Brexit Britain

    I'm not arguing the pros and cons of migration (they are complex and many and go both ways) but this debate is best done in possession of actual facts, rather than Gary Lineker's opinions
    It would be interesting to contrast the figures for the UK as a whole over than period with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    The Eurostat numbers have Scotland at 5.117 million in 1993 and 5.454 million in 2019.
    Immigration into Scotland has certainly been slower than immigration into England, indeed it is arguable that (unlike crowded southern England) Scotland could do with MORE people

    I have sympathy for Scot Nats who want independence for this reason: so they can have the power to boost their population. However they would still have the problem of attracting people to live in Wick, and if they rejoined the EU and got FoM they might find that everyone simply flees to Portugal. Or Sweden
    I think this drives the emotional need for independence too - we are literally becoming less important as our population share declines.

    In 1707 Scotland: England was 1:5. Now's it's 1:10.
    It's notable that Ireland has in recent years not had much trouble in attracting immigrants and that's despite being wetter than Scotland.

    It took nearly a century to reach that state, though.
    Most of Norway and Sweden are on more northerly latitudes than Wick, but they seem to do ok on the immigrant front (can’t quite recall where Sweden is on the PB gammon scale atm, sensible COVID liberals or Islamicist hellhole), mainly by dint of having the power to do something about it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,099
    Sean_F said:

    I just read that article in The Economist about US growth that was posted last night.

    It's puzzling, the US growth performance since 1990 has been the best of the rich countries. Yet, I've seem plenty of statistics which suggest that US median real incomes have hardly moved, in real terms, over that period.

    And, if growth is so good, where do the terrible numbers on life expectancy come from?

    Unfettered capitalism?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    ...

    7 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44,48 Ave 44.71

    Con 27,30.30,26.30,25 Ave 28.28

    Lead 16.43

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 3.95

    ...or plus 1.5% for Labour in the last twenty minutes.

    Over the last month or two, the trend favours the Tories. Is there much else one can read into these polls yet?
    Up 1.09 in last 36 mins Pete up from 15.34 to 16.43

    In last 20 mins its a 0.00 swing
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    ...

    Dialup said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    Thank you for posting. It looks like just noise.
    A swing to Labour is noise, a swing to Con is a sea change?

    Are you new here?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373

    ...

    7 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44,48 Ave 44.71

    Con 27,30.30,26.30,25 Ave 28.28

    Lead 16.43

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 3.95

    ...or plus 1.5% for Labour in the last twenty minutes.

    Over the last month or two, the trend favours the Tories. Is there much else one can read into these polls yet?
    Up 1.09 in last 36 mins Pete up from 15.34 to 16.43

    In last 20 mins its a 0.00 swing
    A solid and steady Starmer-Labour lead then? At least until the next poll.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    So the only Polling Company, with fieldwork entirely in April, that had LAB lead at 20 or above now has lead up to 23

    Rishi is mad letting NHS strikes go unsettled without even appearing to try to resolve.

    Nearly too late for LEs now
    We feel your pain TJO.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,372

    Sean_F said:

    I just read that article in The Economist about US growth that was posted last night.

    It's puzzling, the US growth performance since 1990 has been the best of the rich countries. Yet, I've seem plenty of statistics which suggest that US median real incomes have hardly moved, in real terms, over that period.

    And, if growth is so good, where do the terrible numbers on life expectancy come from?

    Unfettered capitalism?
    Maybe the unpalatable truth is that for the US economy to flourish as a whole, some people have to lose very badly.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373

    ...

    Dialup said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    Thank you for posting. It looks like just noise.
    A swing to Labour is noise, a swing to Con is a sea change?

    Are you new here?
    Just a very slow learner.
  • ...

    7 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44,48 Ave 44.71

    Con 27,30.30,26.30,25 Ave 28.28

    Lead 16.43

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 3.95

    ...or plus 1.5% for Labour in the last twenty minutes.

    Over the last month or two, the trend favours the Tories. Is there much else one can read into these polls yet?
    Up 1.09 in last 36 mins Pete up from 15.34 to 16.43

    In last 20 mins its a 0.00 swing
    A solid and steady Starmer-Labour lead then? At least until the next poll.
    Good afternoon

    I think the polls are relatively stable with a slight uptick for the conservatives

    The threat of more NHS strikes is so depressing and it will be interesting to see the actual figures from the RCN and other unions on their ballots
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Sean_F said:

    I just read that article in The Economist about US growth that was posted last night.

    It's puzzling, the US growth performance since 1990 has been the best of the rich countries. Yet, I've seem plenty of statistics which suggest that US median real incomes have hardly moved, in real terms, over that period.

    And, if growth is so good, where do the terrible numbers on life expectancy come from?

    Fast food receipts and Purdue Pharma sales account for a large percentage of GDP?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373

    ...

    7 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44,48 Ave 44.71

    Con 27,30.30,26.30,25 Ave 28.28

    Lead 16.43

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 3.95

    ...or plus 1.5% for Labour in the last twenty minutes.

    Over the last month or two, the trend favours the Tories. Is there much else one can read into these polls yet?
    Up 1.09 in last 36 mins Pete up from 15.34 to 16.43

    In last 20 mins its a 0.00 swing
    A solid and steady Starmer-Labour lead then? At least until the next poll.
    Good afternoon

    I think the polls are relatively stable with a slight uptick for the conservatives

    The threat of more NHS strikes is so depressing and it will be interesting to see the actual figures from the RCN and other unions on their ballots
    I was only responding to BJO's analysis of the last twenty minutes of polling. It remained very stable during that timeframe!

    You are right, prior to that the trend was with the Tories.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,848

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    Broken, sleazy Tories and LibDems on the slide :lol:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Sean_F said:

    I just read that article in The Economist about US growth that was posted last night.

    It's puzzling, the US growth performance since 1990 has been the best of the rich countries. Yet, I've seem plenty of statistics which suggest that US median real incomes have hardly moved, in real terms, over that period.

    And, if growth is so good, where do the terrible numbers on life expectancy come from?

    Well there's a simple explanation for that. Almost all the gains have gone to the top 10%, and even more the top 1%.
  • ...

    7 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44,48 Ave 44.71

    Con 27,30.30,26.30,25 Ave 28.28

    Lead 16.43

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 3.95

    ...or plus 1.5% for Labour in the last twenty minutes.

    Over the last month or two, the trend favours the Tories. Is there much else one can read into these polls yet?
    Up 1.09 in last 36 mins Pete up from 15.34 to 16.43

    In last 20 mins its a 0.00 swing
    A solid and steady Starmer-Labour lead then? At least until the next poll.
    Good afternoon

    I think the polls are relatively stable with a slight uptick for the conservatives

    The threat of more NHS strikes is so depressing and it will be interesting to see the actual figures from the RCN and other unions on their ballots
    I was only responding to BJO's analysis of the last twenty minutes of polling. It remained very stable during that timeframe!

    You are right, prior to that the trend was with the Tories.
    I know but the trend is slow and I have no idea just where it will take Sunak, but Sunak v Starmer will be an interesting election campaign in 24
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,094
    Did you know April 14 is the birthday of both Sarah Michelle Gellar (46) and Peter Capaldi (65)? Well, you do now...
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I just read that article in The Economist about US growth that was posted last night.

    It's puzzling, the US growth performance since 1990 has been the best of the rich countries. Yet, I've seem plenty of statistics which suggest that US median real incomes have hardly moved, in real terms, over that period.

    And, if growth is so good, where do the terrible numbers on life expectancy come from?

    Unfettered capitalism?
    Maybe the unpalatable truth is that for the US economy to flourish as a whole, some people have to lose very badly.
    It's not some though, it's lots. The distribution of income in the US has dramatically widened since the 70s. At the top people are doing great, but huge swathes of the population have not benefitted as much as they might have in the past.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    This firm seems to regularly produce the best figures for Lab and worst for the Tories.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    Suella are you watching? Slot this into the Conservative Party manifesto and you get a landslide.

    P.S. I am opposed to all capital sentences, but one couldn't blame the punters for lapping this one up Suella.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,377
    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    Menawhie in Missouri some people want 12 year olds to have the right to be married

    https://eu.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/12/sen-mike-moon-reiterates-support-for-12-year-olds-right-to-marry-missouri-senate/70107573007/

    You would hope that the Republican party could discovery some consistency somewhere.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,384

    6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    Looks like your vitriolic campaign against Starmer is having some impact - well done.
    I think he is entirely capable of screwing it himself

    "My Labour" has crept in a lot recently from SKS

    last person I remember using "my" so much was one of your personal favourites from memory

    Jo (my LDs) Swinson and look what happened to her
    You're mistaking me for somebody else. I'm a Labour man (unlike you).
    Who on earth is Jo Swinson?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    I think there was a supreme court ruling that the death penalty can only be used for murder, so this would be struck down, unless SCOTUS changes their mind.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Andy_JS said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    This firm seems to regularly produce the best figures for Lab and worst for the Tories.
    Best to just ignore then?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    Andy_JS said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 48% (+2)
    CON: 25% (-1)
    LDEM: 9% (-1)
    REF: 7% (-)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via @Omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr

    This firm seems to regularly produce the best figures for Lab and worst for the Tories.
    Perhaps so, but the trend within a poll company without a change in methodology is indicative.

    I thought the posters appalling, but maybe the regular folk do not.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667
    Oh joy


    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    5m
    We're delighted to announce that our inaugural Welsh Political Tracker Poll will be launching next week!

    Keep your eyes peeled for Westminster & Senedd Voting Intentions + much more!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    I think there was a supreme court ruling that the death penalty can only be used for murder, so this would be struck down, unless SCOTUS changes their mind.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana
    That's correct: this is very much an attempt to get the Supreme Court to change their mind.

    I would expect that Alito and Thomas will say "Yay!". Goresuch will say "states rights".

    And ACB, Kavanagh and Roberts... who knows?
  • 6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    Looks like your vitriolic campaign against Starmer is having some impact - well done.
    I think he is entirely capable of screwing it himself

    "My Labour" has crept in a lot recently from SKS

    last person I remember using "my" so much was one of your personal favourites from memory

    Jo (my LDs) Swinson and look what happened to her
    You're mistaking me for somebody else. I'm a Labour man (unlike you).
    Who on earth is Jo Swinson?
    One of the stand out features of the last GE was Sturgeon's over the top cheering as Swinson's result came through

    Not cheering now are we Nicola !!!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852

    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    Suella are you watching? Slot this into the Conservative Party manifesto and you get a landslide.

    P.S. I am opposed to all capital sentences, but one couldn't blame the punters for lapping this one up Suella.
    Is a dead paedophile allowed to apply to the court of criminal appeal (whatever it is called) if new evidence appaearing to prove innocence turns up? Asking for a friend.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Hallelujah, 30p Lee is saved for the nation.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,667

    6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    Looks like your vitriolic campaign against Starmer is having some impact - well done.
    I think he is entirely capable of screwing it himself

    "My Labour" has crept in a lot recently from SKS

    last person I remember using "my" so much was one of your personal favourites from memory

    Jo (my LDs) Swinson and look what happened to her
    You're mistaking me for somebody else. I'm a Labour man (unlike you).
    Who on earth is Jo Swinson?
    The reason you were going to vote LD in GE2019 till i talked you out of it!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Have the EU agreed to send ammunition to Ukraine yet, or is France still preventing it?

    It passed the European Council yesterday; €1 billion worth via the fantastically mis-named European Peace Framework.

    Little Englanders are confused over whether orchids or onions are appropriate.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    Suella are you watching? Slot this into the Conservative Party manifesto and you get a landslide.

    P.S. I am opposed to all capital sentences, but one couldn't blame the punters for lapping this one up Suella.
    Is a dead paedophile allowed to apply to the court of criminal appeal (whatever it is called) if new evidence appaearing to prove innocence turns up? Asking for a friend.
    Surely a posthumous apology would suffice.

    I am reminded of poor old Stefan Kitchko whenever I see this old nonsense.

    My point is, if Suella wants an easy win, and some future PM kudos, she could do much worse that this. The RedWall would love it.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    I think there was a supreme court ruling that the death penalty can only be used for murder, so this would be struck down, unless SCOTUS changes their mind.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana
    It’s a bit more nuanced than that.

    Our concern here is limited to crimes against individual persons. We do not address, for example, crimes defining and punishing treason, espionage, terrorism, and drug kingpin activity, which are offenses against the State.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,384

    6 opinion Polls with fieldwork entirely in April

    LAB 44,46.41.45,44 Ave 44.17

    Con 27,30.30,26.30 Ave 28.83

    Lead 15.34

    Average of Polls in last week of March

    Lab 46.63 Con 26.25 Lead 20.38

    Lab 48,47,45,45,44,46,46,50,49 vs

    Con 27,27,29,22,26,26,27,26

    Reduction in lead in 2 weeks 5.04

    Looks like your vitriolic campaign against Starmer is having some impact - well done.
    I think he is entirely capable of screwing it himself

    "My Labour" has crept in a lot recently from SKS

    last person I remember using "my" so much was one of your personal favourites from memory

    Jo (my LDs) Swinson and look what happened to her
    You're mistaking me for somebody else. I'm a Labour man (unlike you).
    Who on earth is Jo Swinson?
    The reason you were going to vote LD in GE2019 till i talked you out of it!
    Well done. Slight hiccup though - I joined this august forum in 2020.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    viewcode said:

    Did you know April 14 is the birthday of both Sarah Michelle Gellar (46) and Peter Capaldi (65)? Well, you do now...

    Don't be silly; Sarah Michelle Gellar is in her mid to late 20s. Have you even seen Buffy?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,161
    Foxy said:
    Are people allowed to self voter ID?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    "Omnisis
    @Omnisis
    ·
    1h
    3/ Meanwhile, in the two-horse race that is our Best Prime Minister tracker, we’re going to need a photo finish this week …

    🔴 Sir Keir Starmer: 33% (-3)
    🔵 Rishi Sunak: 33% (+5)
    ⚪ Don’t Know: 34% (-2)"

    https://twitter.com/Omnisis/status/1646861433022345216
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    I'm quite hawkish on crime and punishment, but the death penalty for crimes beyond homicide is an *interesting* step back to the 19th century
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,303
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    Suella are you watching? Slot this into the Conservative Party manifesto and you get a landslide.

    P.S. I am opposed to all capital sentences, but one couldn't blame the punters for lapping this one up Suella.
    Is a dead paedophile allowed to apply to the court of criminal appeal (whatever it is called) if new evidence appaearing to prove innocence turns up? Asking for a friend.
    In America that would depend on his Class determined by his Census

    If he has 250,000 denarii, he is of the Senatorial Order and obviously qualifies
    If he has 100,000, he is Equites and that requires a peoples assembly
    If he is a Plebeian no chance.
    Head Count? Chuck his dead body in ditch.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    Fuck it, bring back hanging for stealing loaves. And littering
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    edited April 2023
    Sean_F said:

    I just read that article in The Economist about US growth that was posted last night.

    It's puzzling, the US growth performance since 1990 has been the best of the rich countries. Yet, I've seem plenty of statistics which suggest that US median real incomes have hardly moved, in real terms, over that period.

    And, if growth is so good, where do the terrible numbers on life expectancy come from?

    Not that odd - wages have taken a smaller share of income. In some respects that's why growth has been good. Low wages have boosted profitability and that has led to greater business investment and stronger growth. The Left was right about trickle-down economics being a con. Who knew?

    The terrible life expectancy figures are a result of most of society not benefiting from that growth, and some specific effects relating to the opioids crisis.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Foxy said:
    So long as those 1 in 8 are not Conservative voters, surely it is mission accomplished.

    That is a big number to offset that one vote cheat conviction for the guy in Tower Hamlets.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Did you know April 14 is the birthday of both Sarah Michelle Gellar (46) and Peter Capaldi (65)? Well, you do now...

    Don't be silly; Sarah Michelle Gellar is in her mid to late 20s. Have you even seen Buffy?
    Shades of Galaxy Quest there. These are historical documents...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: the developing, expanding, latest scandal of US Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, for context check out the wiki page for CT's mid-20th century predecessor, Justice Abe Fortas.

    In particular, section "Ethics scandal and resignation".

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abe_Fortas
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Oh joy


    Redfield & Wilton Strategies
    @RedfieldWilton
    ·
    5m
    We're delighted to announce that our inaugural Welsh Political Tracker Poll will be launching next week!

    Keep your eyes peeled for Westminster & Senedd Voting Intentions + much more!

    Just how big will Labour wins in Wales be? Now we will know
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    When did the UK last have the peacetime death penalty for anything other than murder/treason?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,369
    viewcode said:

    Did you know April 14 is the birthday of both Sarah Michelle Gellar (46) and Peter Capaldi (65)? Well, you do now...

    A Buffy the Vampire Slayer/Doctor Who crossover could have been awesome.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    I see Gordon Brown's protégé Douglas Alexander is trying to get back into the Westminster parliament at the next election in East Lothian where Kenny MacAskill is the sitting MP.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Lothian_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:
    Differentials, especially demographic, are at the root of Tory govt push for voter ID. In UK as in USA.
  • viewcode said:

    Did you know April 14 is the birthday of both Sarah Michelle Gellar (46) and Peter Capaldi (65)? Well, you do now...

    A Buffy the Vampire Slayer/Doctor Who crossover could have been awesome.
    There’s slash fiction of Captain Jack Barrowman and Spike.

    Based on the appearance of James Marsters in Torchwood.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,684
    Leon said:

    When did the UK last have the peacetime death penalty for anything other than murder/treason?

    Until 1971 we had it for Arson in a Naval Dockyard.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Wow


    "Florida lawmakers have passed a bill that would allow the death penalty to be enacted on convicted pedophiles.

    The Florida House passed HB1297 by a 95-14 vote late Thursday. The legislation will allow rapists of children under the age of 12 to be sentenced to execution without jury unanimity."

    https://summit.news/2023/04/14/florida-enables-death-penalty-for-child-sexual-abuse/

    I think there was a supreme court ruling that the death penalty can only be used for murder, so this would be struck down, unless SCOTUS changes their mind.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_v._Louisiana
    That's correct: this is very much an attempt to get the Supreme Court to change their mind.

    I would expect that Alito and Thomas will say "Yay!". Goresuch will say "states rights".

    And ACB, Kavanagh and Roberts... who knows?
    Isn't Roberts' general move to go 'I might have done differently, but since the rest wont I'll go with the flow'?

    (I know he has genuinely done otherwise on occassion)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,342
    This is where ChatGPT is absolutely amazing. My question:

    When did the UK last have the peacetime death penalty for anything other than murder/treason?

    is quite hard to frame for Google, Wiki

    So I just asked ChatGPT, and got this:

    "Before the death penalty was abolished in the United Kingdom, it was applied for a wide range of crimes, including offenses other than murder or treason. The death penalty for crimes other than murder or treason was last used in peacetime in England in 1832. On June 27, 1832, the last execution for a crime other than murder or treason took place when Samuel Yarham was hanged for rape in Norwich. Following this execution, the scope of capital punishment was gradually reduced, with the number of offenses punishable by death being decreased in a series of legislative changes throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries. Eventually, the Murder (Abolition of Death Penalty) Act 1965 suspended the death penalty for murder in England, Wales, and Scotland, and it was abolished entirely in 1998."


    If that is accurate, that is extraordinarily good
  • eekeek Posts: 28,377
    edited April 2023
    Leon said:

    When did the UK last have the peacetime death penalty for anything other than murder/treason?

    probably sometime prior to 1861 when the death penalty was reduced to murder, treason, espionage, arson in royal dockyards, and piracy with violence;

    I suspect the reality will be sometime in the 1830's but finding out more will require a bit more research as chatgpt is going to be guessing and extrapolating here rather than giving actual facts.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Leon said:

    When did the UK last have the peacetime death penalty for anything other than murder/treason?

    Looks like 1861 from this.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_in_the_United_Kingdom
This discussion has been closed.