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This looks massive – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,218
edited April 2023 in General
imageThis looks massive – politicalbetting.com

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  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    POSNPWAS
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    It explains a hell of a lot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    This a sub-judice respecting HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Important ....

    Proceedings are active on arrest for the purposes of contempt of court in scotland so keep all your hot takes to yourself please.

    https://twitter.com/Scott_Wortley/status/1643533070841118722
  • I would pay a not inconsiderable sum of money for Alex Salmond's thoughts right now.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    Good luck on Sturgeon being appointed to run a whelk stall after this....
  • Hah.

    That’s the WhatsApp I sent you.
  • I would pay a not inconsiderable sum of money for Alex Salmond's thoughts right now.

    I have a feeling he might share them for free....
    He'll be all over the news channels, stat. Thoughtful of Police Scotland to nick them during my Easter break.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Many moons ago, I commented on here that it was unhealthy for a political party's leader and its chief executive to be in a relationship. I was howled at by the usual suspects, who said it was fine.

    I guess I was right? (*) ;)

    (*) for once...

    Well they're married...as for being in a relationship...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    Looooolllll
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468

    I would pay a not inconsiderable sum of money for Alex Salmond's thoughts right now.

    600k, perhaps?

    But Salmond should be careful what he wishes for. He may not like the recent SNP, but if they blow up, then the path to Sindy goes back to near Square One.

    If you seek revenge, start by digging two graves and all that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478
    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.
  • POPCORN!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713

    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Wow. So this event supports what you already believed anyway?

    Fancy that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,238

    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Not if it means the Tories make gains in Scotland. Makes our job in England and Wales that much harder.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    The astronauts on the International Space Station have been back on. They apologise - that grin they could see wasn't Alex Salmond's. It was Keir Starmer's.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713

    Many moons ago, I commented on here that it was unhealthy for a political party's leader and its chief executive to be in a relationship. I was howled at by the usual suspects, who said it was fine.

    I guess I was right? (*) ;)

    (*) for once...

    In the corporate world it would be a direct conflict of interest, and is why CEO/CFO and Chairman of the Board roles are typically separated in governance.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    This is unprecedented in British political history isn’t it?

    A party imploding like this? With police tents in front of the house of the just-departed leader?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478

    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Wow. So this event supports what you already believed anyway?

    Fancy that.
    You what? I've never given a view on the travails of the SNP, nor on Labour's prospects in Scotland. Until today.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Have we decided on her sentence yet? I'm talking about the recently retired leader of the SNP who hasn't been arrested hasn't been charged hasn't had a trial hasn't been found gui.....

    What are you waiting for?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    No comment yet from Yousaf or the SNP. Suggests they did not expect it today?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    I get that the Jeremy Thorpe thing was bigger in a way, but this is the entire leadership and party of a devolved UK government - or so it seems
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    I assume the evidence tent is there so that the police can come and go and review things from the house without having to haul everything back to HQ, but it does have the unfortunate look of them digging up the front garden for cadavers…
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    It seems wildly OTT the number of police vehicles and a tent parked outside the Sturgeon house. What is that all about??
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Not if it means the Tories make gains in Scotland. Makes our job in England and Wales that much harder.
    That's a fair point. I'm sure labour would love wins in scotland from the SNP, but if the Tories make gains, then that's worse for them..
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    Eabhal said:

    No comment yet from Yousaf or the SNP. Suggests they did not expect it today?

    I was wrong sorry: https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1643540312831270914?t=YN--ATLHGWnRg75sy4MAKQ&s=19
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468

    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Not if it means the Tories make gains in Scotland. Makes our job in England and Wales that much harder.
    That's a fair point. I'm sure labour would love wins in scotland from the SNP, but if the Tories make gains, then that's worse for them..
    True, but there's a lot more upside for Labour than the Conservatives if the SNP are in trouble.
  • JPJ2 said:

    It seems wildly OTT the number of police vehicles and a tent parked outside the Sturgeon house. What is that all about??

    For evidence review and collection.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,713
    TimS said:

    The hilarious thing is that a large section of the population only skim the news and may well get a bit confused this week. A not insignificant number will conclude that Sturgeon's husband was arrested for paying hush money to Stormy Daniels. I look forward to the voxpops.

    And Salmond is involved somehow too, right? He was a friend of The Donald, no?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    Eabhal said:

    No comment yet from Yousaf or the SNP. Suggests they did not expect it today?

    Trump yesterday.

    SNP today.

    Boris tomorrow?
    Let's hope so. Let us also hope that it marks the beginning of the end for the repugnant populist and divisive nationalism that they all represent.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223

    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Not if it means the Tories make gains in Scotland. Makes our job in England and Wales that much harder.
    That's a fair point. I'm sure labour would love wins in scotland from the SNP, but if the Tories make gains, then that's worse for them..
    Is that likely?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,036

    Good luck on Sturgeon being appointed to run a whelk stall after this....

    She can be an FIA race director.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    JPJ2 said:

    It seems wildly OTT the number of police vehicles and a tent parked outside the Sturgeon house. What is that all about??

    Taking. Back. Control.

    It may ultimately turn out that Scotland dodged a bullet by 55:45 in 2014. Imagine this lot running an independent Scotland. Sheeesh.

    And the SNP have the gall to moan about Westminster government....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    Good luck on Sturgeon being appointed to run a whelk stall after this....

    < FIFA headhunter has entered the chat >
    FIFA are a strictly professional organisation. £600k is for amateurs.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955
    Twitter is a bit rubbish now - this should be picked up under "trending" but it's still all about the football from last night.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Even a fairly small further shift SNP->Lab could hand Starmer quite a few Scottish Westminster seats beyond the 12 Electoral Calculus currently predicts, as there's a bunch which would fall on just a small further swing:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,916
    Roger said:

    Have we decided on her sentence yet? I'm talking about the recently retired leader of the SNP who hasn't been arrested hasn't been charged hasn't had a trial hasn't been found gui.....

    What are you waiting for?

    It's so hard to choose between the space cannon and the trebuchet, but you won't have to wait long for us to decide.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Sandpit said:

    Good luck on Sturgeon being appointed to run a whelk stall after this....

    She can be an FIA race director.
    Not while Liz Truss has the job they can't...
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,478

    Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Not if it means the Tories make gains in Scotland. Makes our job in England and Wales that much harder.
    Of course, but I just think that currently the Tories are so unpopular in Scotland that it is Labour who will benefit much more. That could change before the GE, obviously.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    Eabhal said:

    Twitter is a bit rubbish now - this should be picked up under "trending" but it's still all about the football from last night.

    https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/1643539759938117632
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    I would pay a not inconsiderable sum of money for Alex Salmond's thoughts right now.

    I think it possibly best that no one gets inside the head of the man that was described as a "bully and a sex pest" by his own defence barrister. It would not be a very pleasant place
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    edited April 2023
    SKS is a lucky general example #562….
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,217

    TimS said:

    The hilarious thing is that a large section of the population only skim the news and may well get a bit confused this week. A not insignificant number will conclude that Sturgeon's husband was arrested for paying hush money to Stormy Daniels. I look forward to the voxpops.

    And Salmond is involved somehow too, right? He was a friend of The Donald, no?
    All adds up. And wasn't Stormy Daniels that blonde American tech entrepreneur who went on business trips with the Mayor of London?
  • Everyone on my (heavily Scottish journo) Twitter timeline is reminding each other of contempt laws.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    Many moons ago, I commented on here that it was unhealthy for a political party's leader and its chief executive to be in a relationship. I was howled at by the usual suspects, who said it was fine.

    I guess I was right? (*) ;)

    (*) for once...

    I suspect you were howled at with barely concealed Anglophobic outrage and accused of being a "Scotch expert".
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,217

    SKS is a lucky general example #562….

    It's a fair point thought that winning several seats off the SNP while the Tories win a handful off them too is only good news if there's a Labour majority in the offing. Otherwise it makes the maths tighter.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    TimS said:

    The hilarious thing is that a large section of the population only skim the news and may well get a bit confused this week. A not insignificant number will conclude that Sturgeon's husband was arrested for paying hush money to Stormy Daniels. I look forward to the voxpops.

    And Salmond is involved somehow too, right? He was a friend of The Donald, no?
    Peas in a very toxic pod
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    Roger said:

    Have we decided on her sentence yet? I'm talking about the recently retired leader of the SNP who hasn't been arrested hasn't been charged hasn't had a trial hasn't been found gui.....

    What are you waiting for?

    It's so hard to choose between the space cannon and the trebuchet, but you won't have to wait long for us to decide.
    Crucifixion is too good for 'em, that's what I say. Nail 'em up, nail 'em up
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    I reckon current events in Scotland make an early general election even less likely than it already was.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,010
    Eabhal said:

    Twitter is a bit rubbish now - this should be picked up under "trending" but it's still all about the football from last night.

    "people care more about football than politics" is rather dog-bites-man.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281

    This a sub-judice respecting HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

    "LOCK THEM UP".

    (I've no idea who 'they' are, of course.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,168
    JPJ2 said:

    It seems wildly OTT the number of police vehicles and a tent parked outside the Sturgeon house. What is that all about??

    Fred West spent a few years in Glasgow I believe..
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Even a fairly small further shift SNP->Lab could hand Starmer quite a few Scottish Westminster seats beyond the 12 Electoral Calculus currently predicts, as there's a bunch which would fall on just a small further swing:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/area_scot.html

    Yep - that's why any prospects of an early GE are even more remote than they were.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    TimS said:

    SKS is a lucky general example #562….

    It's a fair point thought that winning several seats off the SNP while the Tories win a handful off them too is only good news if there's a Labour majority in the offing. Otherwise it makes the maths tighter.

    The polling indicates that Labour is likely to benefit far more than the Tories.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,303

    I reckon current events in Scotland make an early general election even less likely than it already was.

    What about an early Scottish parliament election?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352
    What a great day this is, though it is playing havoc with my New Year resolution not to indulge my feelings of schadenfreude toward divisive nationalists
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173
    Politics wise, if the SNP polls rating tumble, it means more Labour gains and blunts any Tory "SNP in Labour's pocket" attack if polls tighten GB-wide and a hung parliament were likely.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    edited April 2023
    JPJ2 said:

    It seems wildly OTT the number of police vehicles and a tent parked outside the Sturgeon house. What is that all about??

    I think it's not unusual in cases likely to involve lots of documents to make sure they're all secured at the same time, for obvious reasons.

    That can take a lot of people.
    And until the documents are secured, you don't know how many bodies you'll need.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Time to increase your stakes on that outright Labour majority ...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,774
    SNP insouciant, per BBC:
    An SNP spokesperson said: "Clearly it would not be appropriate to comment on any live police investigation but the SNP have been cooperating fully with this investigation and will continue to do so.
    "At its meeting on Saturday, the governing body of the SNP, the NEC, agreed to a review of governance and transparency - that will be taken forward in the coming weeks."
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,147
    Eabhal said:

    Twitter is a bit rubbish now - this should be picked up under "trending" but it's still all about the football from last night.

    Dismal display by my team last night. I hope you all got on my tip of Leicester for relegation at 4/1. Should be odds on and now just short of 2/1.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    JPJ2 said:

    It seems wildly OTT the number of police vehicles and a tent parked outside the Sturgeon house. What is that all about??

    Taking. Back. Control.

    It may ultimately turn out that Scotland dodged a bullet by 55:45 in 2014. Imagine this lot running an independent Scotland. Sheeesh.

    And the SNP have the gall to moan about Westminster government....
    I think I now understand what they meant when they referred to "keeping the pound"
  • TimS said:

    SKS is a lucky general example #562….

    It's a fair point thought that winning several seats off the SNP while the Tories win a handful off them too is only good news if there's a Labour majority in the offing. Otherwise it makes the maths tighter.

    The polling indicates that Labour is likely to benefit far more than the Tories.

    In the central belt.

    Aberdeenshire and the Borders a different story. Chance the Tories will hold some seats which might have gone SNP narrowly.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2023
    Eabhal said:

    Twitter is a bit rubbish now - this should be picked up under "trending" but it's still all about the football from last night.

    I noticed that about twitter but to be honest I've switched off the main news for 48 hours until just now.

    I have zero interest in Donald Trump. Neither the man himself nor the stories about him.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,217
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    The hilarious thing is that a large section of the population only skim the news and may well get a bit confused this week. A not insignificant number will conclude that Sturgeon's husband was arrested for paying hush money to Stormy Daniels. I look forward to the voxpops.

    And Salmond is involved somehow too, right? He was a friend of The Donald, no?
    All adds up. And wasn't Stormy Daniels that blonde American tech entrepreneur who went on business trips with the Mayor of London?
    Though quite why they were paying hush money to a well known London based Grime artist remains a mystery.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468

    What a great day this is, though it is playing havoc with my New Year resolution not to indulge my feelings of schadenfreude toward divisive nationalists

    Aren't resolutions meant to be promising not to do bad things?
  • As somebody who in the past has had to deal with clients accused of financial impropriety I can say a lot of rozzers do turn up to seize a lot of devices to stop remote wipes.

    With it possible to access work product on personal devices it gets more complicated.

    You really don’t want to do that in somebody’s living room hence the tent(s).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    Everyone on my (heavily Scottish journo) Twitter timeline is reminding each other of contempt laws.

    Can we not simply treat the SNP with contempt? ( I mean, we've been doing that for years...!).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352
    edited April 2023
    I wonder if it goes to trial will SNP apologists claim it is a political trial set up by Unionists and Scotland is going to hell
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter is a bit rubbish now - this should be picked up under "trending" but it's still all about the football from last night.

    Dismal display by my team last night. I hope you all got on my tip of Leicester for relegation at 4/1. Should be odds on and now just short of 2/1.
    And Forest very firmly back in the mire after getting up to 12th I think. With a shite goal difference...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,955

    I reckon current events in Scotland make an early general election even less likely than it already was.

    What about an early Scottish parliament election?
    You need 2/3 if MSPs for that. Or Yousaf resigns and the parliament is unable to nominate a successor.

    I think unlikely.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    If this leads to some sort of implosion in the SNP all it will effectively mean is that the 45% or so of Scots who want independence will organise themselves in some other way. The only predictable result from such a happening is a large increase in Labour MPs from Scotland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,281
    Clinton regrets persuading Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons
    https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,352

    Everyone on my (heavily Scottish journo) Twitter timeline is reminding each other of contempt laws.

    Can we not simply treat the SNP with contempt? ( I mean, we've been doing that for years...!).
    Not enough people see them for what they are; a vehicle for those with racist prejudice towards those who live south of a border
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Live from Scottish Police HQ:

    "a good long rest...."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bnh162vqk4&ab_channel=gluckschmerz
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952
    Nigelb said:

    Clinton regrets persuading Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons
    https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/

    Just quietly let Putin know about America's latest Lend-Lease Act munitions to Ukraine, already in country....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,147
    Heathener said:

    Eabhal said:

    Twitter is a bit rubbish now - this should be picked up under "trending" but it's still all about the football from last night.

    I noticed that about twitter but to be honest I've switched off the main news for 48 hours until just now.

    I have zero interest in Donald Trump. Neither the man himself nor the stories about him.
    This was quite fun:

    https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1643312911941509121?t=6gEpHYrMS3IGO0A2VTjKAA&s=19

    The AI has the Stars and Stripes all wrong, apart from anything else.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    Roger said:

    If this leads to some sort of implosion in the SNP all it will effectively mean is that the 45% or so of Scots who want independence will organise themselves in some other way. The only predictable result from such a happening is a large increase in Labour MPs from Scotland.

    It depends how resilient that 45% figure is. Opinions do change and the SNP has been the de facto party political wing of the independence movement for some time.

    It is wholly possible that a change in the fundamentals could lead to a shift in sentiment on independence. We are not there yet, but…
  • Nicola departed the premises shortly before the cops arrived:

    https://twitter.com/LouiseScottITV/status/1643555522996584448
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    geoffw said:

    Where's Malcolm? Has he given himself a hernia?

    He’s dancing about outside!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,916
    Roger said:

    If this leads to some sort of implosion in the SNP all it will effectively mean is that the 45% or so of Scots who want independence will organise themselves in some other way. The only predictable result from such a happening is a large increase in Labour MPs from Scotland.

    Scottish politics since 2014 has been dominated by the fact that the 45% who voted for Independence voted in subsequent elections on the basis that the Constitutional issue was their most important concern.

    If a large proportion of that 45% decide that voting on the basis of other criteria is more important, then Scottish politics becomes a lot more fluid and unpredictable. A Labour resurgence is possible, but it is not inevitable.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,927
    edited April 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Clinton regrets persuading Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons
    https://www.rte.ie/news/primetime/2023/0404/1374162-clinton-ukraine/

    The Clinton Administration were too complacent. Easy to think you’d be dealing with someone like Yeltsin in perpetuity, but no contingency planning in the case you weren’t. Bush II and Obama, I am afraid, continued the trend even when it became more obvious that Putin was not the man they all hoped he would be.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,354
    edited April 2023
    To note the Scottish subsample polling average for the 6 pollsters who have conducted Westminster VIs including Scottish results since Yousaf was appointed:

    SNP 39, Lab 28, Con 19, LD 5, Green 3, Oth 5

    That is little changed from before his appointment. And being subsamples the weight of outliers remains potentially important, but the pattern of outliers is similar.

    SNP: 51/48/36/34/34/33
    Lab: 39/35/29/23/23/20
    Con: 28/21/19/17/16/14

    This may serve as some manner of a baseline for today's events.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,952

    geoffw said:

    Where's Malcolm? Has he given himself a hernia?

    He’s dancing about outside!
    He's helping police with their inquiries.

    "Officer, there's something else you need to know as well...."
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,843
    Sandpit said:

    Good luck on Sturgeon being appointed to run a whelk stall after this....

    She can be an FIA race director.
    She should be appointed to run VAR.
  • Partisan post: looks like this could turn out to be a very good day for the Labour Party, both in Scotland and by extension the UK as a whole.

    Not if it means the Tories make gains in Scotland. Makes our job in England and Wales that much harder.
    Good morning

    Not entirely unexpected news and very much as predicted by our Ayrshire colleague

    As far as the political consequences it would seem a considerable win for the union, and labour gaining seats, indeed even possible conservative gains, but swopping SNP seats for labour does not reduce the need for labour to do very well in England and Wales to gain a majority

    As I have often said, as have many others, a week is a long time in politics and of course events influence the future in politics as well
This discussion has been closed.