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Storm(y) in a D cup for Donald Trump – politicalbetting.com
Storm(y) in a D cup for Donald Trump – politicalbetting.com
First post-indictment poll has Trump gaining nearly 20 points of ground over DeSantis relative to YouGov’s last survey of the race two week’s ago https://t.co/Q0p9l0Vvjz pic.twitter.com/MWulp7gkvk
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Everyones best guess is that the Dems think by prosecuting Trump in NYC in 2023 it'll ensure he'll become the GOP candidate in 2024 and Biden will beat him in the Creepy Donald Vs Sleepy Joe 2024 V2 general election 24.
But what happens if Biden dies between now and Nov 24? Given he is very, very, very old and very obviously senile it could happen right?
In which case it could finish up Donald Vs Kamala by default, yes? But then what the hell would happen???
As it's Wrestlemania weekend... In the words of Jake "The Snake" Roberts from one of his greatest WWF promos in the 80s... Oh what a wicked web you weave if at first you labour to deceive...🕸🕸🕸
It seems to me the Dems are playing for very high stakes now and this could very easily backfire...
Joe Biden is 2/5 to be the next Democrat candidate which is basically the price on his mortality. To win the election itself, 9/4 Biden, 11/4 Trump, 4/1 DeSantis and 33/1 Harris. Winning party is 4/5 Republican, 5/4 Democrat.
ETA prices taken from Oddschecker; I've not checked for price boosts, or looked at the exchanges.
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/evan-gershkovich
Doesn't that seem a bit low - ie an incumbent would normally have a greater than 50% chance in a GE (ie once it's known they are their party's candidate).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/01/donald-trump-campaign-donations-indictment/
He’s going to own the events of next week too - expect his team to be selling t-shirts of his mugshot, with “Trump 2024” emblazoned underneath, within hours.
Basically, we have:
Biden 9/4 or 31%
Trump 11/4 or 27%
DeDantis 4/1 or 20%
But that leaves 22% unaccounted for, so another Democrat or another Republican.
Many commentators have a rock, paper, scissors model: Biden beats Trump, Trump beats DeSantis, DeSantis beats Biden. I'm afraid it is all too complicated for this bear of little brain.
As far as state prosecutions are concerned, that simply wrong. And even at the Federal level, where clearly the administration has far more influence on policy, the current administration maintains far more distance between its executive and legal functions than did its predecessor.
You riddle is based on a false premise.
I think I may damage a rib laughing.
Made in the image of God and deserving of dignity, respect, and support.
We'll never stop working to create a world where you won't have to be brave just to be yourself.
https://mobile.twitter.com/POTUS/status/1641798763390943232
A copy is expected to be one of the first items to land on Sunak’s desk when parliament resumes on April 17. That may force a new reshuffle, though the PM’s closest aides deny rumours that he is plotting wider changes to get his election team in place.
Sunak also needs to appoint a replacement for Michelle Donelan as secretary of state for science when she goes on maternity leave. Julia Lopez, a minister in Donelan’s department, is also pregnant and expected to take maternity leave.
After months of delay, Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list is also expected to follow soon after. It is understood that Sunak is not likely to reject or cut Johnson or Truss’s resignation honours lists, which some people have called for as a way of signalling that his is a cleaner administration.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-building-storms-that-threaten-to-blow-buoyant-rishi-sunak-off-course-2fbfkd90w
Safety car.
Or the team just screwed him ?
OOOOH RED FLAG.
Russell screwed.
And Mercedes' chances of a win.
They can't double team Verstappen now.
Would have been a decent gamble has it remained a safety.
The red flag call is pretty questionable, too.
As anger mounts over headteacher’s suicide, group bids for judicial review into inconsistencies of rulings by watchdog
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2023/apr/02/unfit-for-purpose-ofsted-could-face-legal-challenge-from-school-leaders
With this kind of crap happening, challenging Ofsted is essential.
...Price Grimshaw is fiercely critical of the focus in the current Ofsted inspectionguidelines on what children say in discussion with inspectors. She says many children are nervous when talking to adults they don’t know, and in some cases questions have been “leading or even unreasonable”.
She described an inspection she saw where the inspector pulled out two nervous children with special educational needs to talk about a history lesson. Price Grimshaw and the teachers warned the inspector that these children might struggle with questions, but “she didn’t seem to care”.
“She said: ‘So girls, tell me five things about the Romans,’” Price Grimshaw recalled. “One girl started shaking and the other couldn’t say anything. She claimed this was evidence that the teaching in the lesson wasn’t working.”...
One mortgage-squeezed resident in Kent said that they’d “never been as angry” as when they’d read a report that Liz Truss intended to give peerages to those who served in her calamitous 49-day reign.
Even in leafy Sevenoaks, one Tory councillor is so worried they have embarked on an unprecedented “chicken run” from a usually solid Tory ward to stand in an area that they feel is even more safe.
Looks the real deal.
The car looks almost like a different formula.
Explains the Mercedes gamble.
Biden is 2/5 for nomination = 71.4%.
And as we both said he is 9/4 for President = 30.8%
Implies 30.8/71.4 = 43% chance of winning if nominated - which as I said feels low.
The Manhattan DA is prosecuting because Trump seems to have committed crimes and probably because he thinks it's good for his personal political stature to prosecute them. Likewise the Fulton County (Georgia) DA, if they're bringing charges.
The document cover-up case is happening because they had to make the case just to get the documents back, and the crimes were then very flagrant and obvious and there's no way anyone would not get prosecuted for them once the investigation had got to that point.
The January 6th investigations are happening because the crimes are very serious. If the Biden thought the likely result was to his own serious electoral disadvantage then it's possible he'd have leaned on the AG not to bring them or made sure he appointed an AG who'd squish them, but it's very hard to predict the electoral consequences, especially since the administration has no control of the Manhattan and Georgia cases.
PS When you repost something you posted From the Previous Thread it's helpful to put "FPT" to save time for people who already read it the first time.
The 2020 election was a strange one due to covid, and he will need to campaign more actively this time. That will be gruelling physically. Age seems less of an issue in American politics than it is here.
Just switched on TV and it looks like carnage in Australia
The order of the last grid, will be the finishing order.
Astonished they went for a rolling restart. After red flag 3 I had a shower and logged on just to see how they'd settled on the order (ie at the grid of the standing restart or the order at the red flag).
Ridiculous.
"Tell them they can't"
Who loses? A victimless crime. He deserves to lose the money for his studidity, and as far as I can see, no blackmail was involved, so she's committed no crime.
The whole thing may be a crime against morality, but greed and adultery haven't been criminalised. Nor has political incompetence.
Much as for Labour the only safe areas in 2019 were in the inner cities or some university towns
If you remember, Cohen went to prison for it.
Explainer here (for about fourth time).
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2023/03/30/trump-indictment-legal-faqs-00089864
He's being Caponed
capon (third-person singular simple present capons, present participle caponing, simple past and past participle caponed)
(transitive) To castrate; to make a capon of.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/capon#Verb
About time too
Thanks, that explained a lot. American politics is a real swamp at times. How different, how very different from ... or maybe not.
Talking of messes, that race was a bit of a shambles,
Also, can we make TSE Max Verstappen's mechanic, or this season will be bloody boring in terms of race winners.
So the argument is basically that the lawyer paid off whores all the time for Trump, and didn’t realise that during the campaign he couldn’t pay off this whore on Trump’s behalf, so had to eat the expense himself.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/04/australia-post-race-carnage-2023.html
You can call me Al.
We should get to see the indictment on Tuesday US time, when he's formally charged. Until we do be skeptical of people who claim to know whether the case is strong or weak.
Seems she got herself a job as race director at F1.....
Why don't they have a rule that a red flag in the last five laps you count back two laps and take those standings? They used to, although as I recall that once caused chaos when Fisichella thought he'd won, then was demoted, then got promoted back when they realised they'd miscounted...
The dream scenario for DJT is that New York have to extradite him from Florida. RDS will either have to allow it and incur the wrath of MAGAWorld or supplicate himself and try to block it.
https://thumbsnap.com/Z2s8yMGn
Is anyone offering odds that the four men currently on the podium, will all end up with the the trophies with which they’re being presented?
https://twitter.com/dhothersall/status/1642433894044643328?s=20
It is so utterly stupid it is actually funny, in a "I´d like to burn the Tory Party to the ground, plough their fields with salt and slaughter their first born" kind of way - and the voters will quite likely feel the same way.
His supporters are already clear even serious crimes would not justify his being charged, even if he was guilty.
I enjoyed the replies to Redwood. Very notable theme in there, which was sewage. Lib Dems have been hitting this hard in recent months. I think it could be a media theme of the summer this year.