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Well done Gavin Williamson – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,677
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KieranPAndrews
    NEW: Kate Forbes has rejected a job in Humza Yousaf's government and will go to the backbenches

    The Times understands she was offered the rural affairs portfolio

    What an idiot Yousaf was there, she has 48% of SNP members behind her and is more popular with Scots overall than he is, he should have at least offered her Deputy FM or Finance.

    Now Forbes and her supporters will be plotting against him from day 1
    WHY OH WHY ISN’T WOKE USELESS OFFERING THE SCOTCH ANN WIDDECOMB DFM?!

    etc
    This post will be fun to fish out when she's the new leader and you're finding reasons to defend her.
    What political party would find itself in such dire straits they ditch the leader they just appointed in order to bring in the losing candidate?

    Ok, the Tories and the DUP, but happening three times?
    He has another scooter accident, this time tragically fatal?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    A few folk left raging doubtless.



    Istr at least one PBer who had professional contact with Robison found her pleasant and on top of her brief, but what would he know?

    Reward for helping Humza get his job?

    Robison introduced the GRR bill…..
    I knew I could depend on you for the GRR angle.
    She is a duffer among duffers as well, one of Sturgeon's besties surprise surprise.
    If Yousaf wanted to try to unite the SNP, he would have appointed Forbes as his deputy.
    No way that arse would appoint her, he is a vindictive nasty git and will give her a crap job hoping she will fail, likely health that he has already wrecked.
    do you know him personally?
    I have seen the results of his efforts over the years and a 10 year old could have done no worse.
    Interesting. We now have a man of south asian descent as scottish first minster, a man of indian descent as PM and a man of south asian descent as mayor of london.
    Enoch Powell’s ghost is howling!
    Buffing his ghostly nails as Powelladamus, tipster of the year surely?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,467

    I've just had a holiday idea

    I wonder if I could get seven Welsh and/or Cornish bishops and/or monks to write letters to the top chaps at the seven Breton religious sites I'll be visiting

    I could hand deliver them, brought through Brittany entirely on foot as part of my 'pilgrimage'

    And wear my Royal Mail shirt as I do

    Does anyone know any Welsh or Cornish bishops or monks?

    That's a really good idea. An acquaintance of mine travelled to every European country, and tried to get a pint of Guinness in the capital of each one. Some were easy (Dublin, for instance). Others were harder. The Vatican City being one such.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,761

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KieranPAndrews
    NEW: Kate Forbes has rejected a job in Humza Yousaf's government and will go to the backbenches

    The Times understands she was offered the rural affairs portfolio

    What an idiot Yousaf was there, she has 48% of SNP members behind her and is more popular with Scots overall than he is, he should have at least offered her Deputy FM or Finance.

    Now Forbes and her supporters will be plotting against him from day 1
    Hard to offer her DFM when she's spent the past few weeks saying he's useless.
    John Major made Heseltine, his leadership rival in 1990, DPM and stayed PM for 7 years
    It's been quite a while - but I don't remember Heseltine standing at a hustings with Major saying "You're useless mate. Absolutely useless."
    And the aftermath of leadership elections has got a bit more gangster shootout since the days of Major and his cabinet of chums.

    Truss and Bozza both exiled defeated rivals to the far extremities. So did May and even Starmer to a degree.

    Speaks to me of parties not really knowing what they're for and using leadership elections to decide that. In the SNP's case, is it right-leaning old rural nationalists or left-leaning young urban nationalists.

    If they can't live under the same roof, that's a problem for the independence cause. Because you need both (plus some more) to get above fifty percent.
    It wouldn’t be a problem if there were a range of Independence supporting parties with a reasonable chance of winning seats, and willing to work together when necessary.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,761
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    If anyone’s interested in old postboxes, I’ve got a VR and an EVIIR on my route



    Elizabeth the Seventh? Have I missed something?
    Yes, the Nazi King, the divorcée, and the Singapore Grip.
    That's us both out of the Cub Scouts for having a crap Royal, sorry National, Scrapbook.
    In my defence I’ve spent the afternoon. getting an earful from my mother. It’s your fault.

    She’s upset that we’ve got an Indian heritage PM and Pakistani heritage FM, and that I didn’t become a doctor.

    I told her I could have become a politician but the scandals would have been too much for her.
    Not my fault. I didn't vote for him as FM. The MSPs did.
    Suspect that after a few years we'll be hard pressed to find anyone who did vote for him - except the MSPs of course.
    I don't think we have any left-end SNP folk on this site, anyway. They'd be too busy fighting with Carlotta on the identity stuff.
    TUD?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455

    Carnyx said:



    I don't think we have any left-end SNP folk on this site, anyway. They'd be too busy fighting with Carlotta on the identity stuff.

    Cough..

    Apparently even quoting news verbatim means I’m obsessed with the identity stuff, so presumably I’m fighting CV by default. Bit of a David and Goliath scenario mind with my puny couple of dozen posts v. hunners on the subject.
    No, that's just bog standard Scots scepticism, (c) D. Hume. I was thinking in terms of a level of interest comparable to CVs.

    Now if we were to develop an interest in the CIs? But why would we want to, unless it was somethijng like WW2 (and Palmerston and earlier) fortifications?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503
    ..

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KieranPAndrews
    NEW: Kate Forbes has rejected a job in Humza Yousaf's government and will go to the backbenches

    The Times understands she was offered the rural affairs portfolio

    What an idiot Yousaf was there, she has 48% of SNP members behind her and is more popular with Scots overall than he is, he should have at least offered her Deputy FM or Finance.

    Now Forbes and her supporters will be plotting against him from day 1
    WHY OH WHY ISN’T WOKE USELESS OFFERING THE SCOTCH ANN WIDDECOMB DFM?!

    etc
    This post will be fun to fish out when she's the new leader and you're finding reasons to defend her.
    I’m not sure why quoting PB’s primo reader of SNP entrails HYUFD is particularly notable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    edited March 2023

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KieranPAndrews
    NEW: Kate Forbes has rejected a job in Humza Yousaf's government and will go to the backbenches

    The Times understands she was offered the rural affairs portfolio

    What an idiot Yousaf was there, she has 48% of SNP members behind her and is more popular with Scots overall than he is, he should have at least offered her Deputy FM or Finance.

    Now Forbes and her supporters will be plotting against him from day 1
    Hard to offer her DFM when she's spent the past few weeks saying he's useless.
    John Major made Heseltine, his leadership rival in 1990, DPM and stayed PM for 7 years
    It's been quite a while - but I don't remember Heseltine standing at a hustings with Major saying "You're useless mate. Absolutely useless."
    And the aftermath of leadership elections has got a bit more gangster shootout since the days of Major and his cabinet of chums.

    Truss and Bozza both exiled defeated rivals to the far extremities. So did May and even Starmer to a degree.

    Speaks to me of parties not really knowing what they're for and using leadership elections to decide that. In the SNP's case, is it right-leaning old rural nationalists or left-leaning young urban nationalists.

    If they can't live under the same roof, that's a problem for the independence cause. Because you need both (plus some more) to get above fifty percent.
    Johnson did make Raab his DPM and Javid his Chancellor, both were leadership rivals.

    May offered Leadsom environment which she took as it was a promotion for her unlike Forbes and May won by a much bigger margin than Yousaf (as indeed did Johnson over Hunt).

    Starmer has Lisa Nandy in his Shadow Cabinet and had Long Bailey as his Education spokesman until she was sacked over her Maxine Peake interview, again he won by a larger margin than Yousaf
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    If anyone’s interested in old postboxes, I’ve got a VR and an EVIIR on my route



    Elizabeth the Seventh? Have I missed something?
    Yes, the Nazi King, the divorcée, and the Singapore Grip.
    That's us both out of the Cub Scouts for having a crap Royal, sorry National, Scrapbook.
    In my defence I’ve spent the afternoon. getting an earful from my mother. It’s your fault.

    She’s upset that we’ve got an Indian heritage PM and Pakistani heritage FM, and that I didn’t become a doctor.

    I told her I could have become a politician but the scandals would have been too much for her.
    Not my fault. I didn't vote for him as FM. The MSPs did.
    Suspect that after a few years we'll be hard pressed to find anyone who did vote for him - except the MSPs of course.
    I don't think we have any left-end SNP folk on this site, anyway. They'd be too busy fighting with Carlotta on the identity stuff.
    TUD?
    Was thinking of the end where you wonder why they haven't gone over to the SGs already.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,661

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KieranPAndrews
    NEW: Kate Forbes has rejected a job in Humza Yousaf's government and will go to the backbenches

    The Times understands she was offered the rural affairs portfolio

    What an idiot Yousaf was there, she has 48% of SNP members behind her and is more popular with Scots overall than he is, he should have at least offered her Deputy FM or Finance.

    Now Forbes and her supporters will be plotting against him from day 1
    Hard to offer her DFM when she's spent the past few weeks saying he's useless.
    John Major made Heseltine, his leadership rival in 1990, DPM and stayed PM for 7 years
    It's been quite a while - but I don't remember Heseltine standing at a hustings with Major saying "You're useless mate. Absolutely useless."
    And the aftermath of leadership elections has got a bit more gangster shootout since the days of Major and his cabinet of chums.

    Truss and Bozza both exiled defeated rivals to the far extremities. So did May and even Starmer to a degree.

    Speaks to me of parties not really knowing what they're for and using leadership elections to decide that. In the SNP's case, is it right-leaning old rural nationalists or left-leaning young urban nationalists.

    If they can't live under the same roof, that's a problem for the independence cause. Because you need both (plus some more) to get above fifty percent.
    It wouldn’t be a problem if there were a range of Independence supporting parties with a reasonable chance of winning seats, and willing to work together when necessary.
    Well, you've always got Eck and then there's the Green double-act.

    Oh, wait...
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 775
    edited March 2023

    If anyone’s interested in old postboxes, I’ve got a VR and an EVIIR on my route



    During lockdown, I plotted a route here in Worthing that would take me VR-Evii-Gv-Eviii-Gvi-Eii. About a couple of miles, forty minute walk iirc. Once lockdown was over, I walked the route and took pics of the postboxes.

    Yes we do have an Eviii here in Worthing, one of a handful. I have wondered if, given there aren't many Eviii around, this might be the shortest possible such route.

    My route also finished quite close to the current large development in West Worthing, so might be possible to extend it to Ciii at some point.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,467
    For all the JK Rowling fans... and anyone who might ever need a blood transfusion:

    "It was recently discovered that those given transfusions of blood from the opposite sex had poorer outcomes, including fatalities."

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1640420432795844628

    She is a ****
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,661
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KieranPAndrews
    NEW: Kate Forbes has rejected a job in Humza Yousaf's government and will go to the backbenches

    The Times understands she was offered the rural affairs portfolio

    What an idiot Yousaf was there, she has 48% of SNP members behind her and is more popular with Scots overall than he is, he should have at least offered her Deputy FM or Finance.

    Now Forbes and her supporters will be plotting against him from day 1
    Hard to offer her DFM when she's spent the past few weeks saying he's useless.
    John Major made Heseltine, his leadership rival in 1990, DPM and stayed PM for 7 years
    That was a very genteel contest once Thatcher dropped out, though. Heseltine was standing to ditch Thatcher - part of his difficulty was that he didn't really have a quarrel with Major or Hurd, and his best chance was her fighting on. Also makes a difference that there weren't public hustings.
    I'm not sure that Heseltine ever had much support. I recall (possibly wrongly) that Portillo had a far greater backing.
    In 1997 the feeling was that the leadership was Heseltine's for the taking. Sensibly he declined. Ken Clarke stood in his place only to be beaten by Wm Hague. Portillo would certainly have been a contender had he not lost his seat.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,677
    DougSeal said:

    Is it possible, that Humza Yousef just might surprise . . . to coin a phrase . . . on the upside???

    (Am ducking for cover under my desk!!!)

    Why not? Truss did.
    She surprised me hugely on the upside. I knew she was awkward and a poor speaker, and for the rest, I had her down as a seat-warming career politician. It surprised me immensely that her libertarian beliefs really were so deeply-held, and that she was really prepared to take on so many vested interests to get the country moving again. The sequence of events that lead to her resignation (which she herself bears the responsibility for), was a sad missed opportunity for the country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,731
    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977

    For all the JK Rowling fans... and anyone who might ever need a blood transfusion:

    "It was recently discovered that those given transfusions of blood from the opposite sex had poorer outcomes, including fatalities."

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1640420432795844628

    She is a ****

    I don't know anything about that issue, though it sounds like nonsense, but people don't have to be right all the time, or reasonable all the time of course.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503
    edited March 2023
    Foxy said:

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    A few folk left raging doubtless.



    Istr at least one PBer who had professional contact with Robison found her pleasant and on top of her brief, but what would he know?

    Reward for helping Humza get his job?

    Robison introduced the GRR bill…..
    I knew I could depend on you for the GRR angle.
    She is a duffer among duffers as well, one of Sturgeon's besties surprise surprise.
    If Yousaf wanted to try to unite the SNP, he would have appointed Forbes as his deputy.
    No way that arse would appoint her, he is a vindictive nasty git and will give her a crap job hoping she will fail, likely health that he has already wrecked.
    do you know him personally?
    I have seen the results of his efforts over the years and a 10 year old could have done no worse.
    Interesting. We now have a man of south asian descent as scottish first minster, a man of indian descent as PM and a man of south asian descent as mayor of london.
    Enoch Powell’s ghost is howling!
    Buffing his ghostly nails as Powelladamus, tipster of the year surely?
    Wasn’t Powell’s real bugbear the black rather than the brown man? I may be misremembering but I thought he had a highish respect for India, its culture(s) and forces due to serving there.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,661
    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    edited March 2023
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    Naturally not. He's a decent constituency MP and its no surprise the local party and probably many residents back him. How about they prove how much by seeing if they'll back him as an independent?

    I did see a Channel4 video on it, which was pretty amusing to see some of the figures not seen in a while, like Andrew Murray and Jon Lansman.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 41,467
    kle4 said:

    For all the JK Rowling fans... and anyone who might ever need a blood transfusion:

    "It was recently discovered that those given transfusions of blood from the opposite sex had poorer outcomes, including fatalities."

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1640420432795844628

    She is a ****

    I don't know anything about that issue, though it sounds like nonsense, but people don't have to be right all the time, or reasonable all the time of course.
    It is probably nonsense. But it may very well have hefty real-world effects if people - or worse, doctors, decide that transfusions have to be done by the sex of the donor and recipient. Donor shortages are bad enough as it is, with ordinary blood typing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    I'm sure Starmer will be most upset if hard left activists divert themselves from other areas to focus in on Islington North.

    I'm very curious who they will find to stand there - it's a Lineker suspension situation, who in the local party would take up the official party baton? They probably want to stay in the party but unofficially campaign for him.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455

    For all the JK Rowling fans... and anyone who might ever need a blood transfusion:

    "It was recently discovered that those given transfusions of blood from the opposite sex had poorer outcomes, including fatalities."

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1640420432795844628

    She is a ****

    That thing she is linking to doesn't make sense - you look at the patient's weight not the sex to determine likely volume needs, surely.

    As for the research paper, IANAE b ut the stats in the abstract don't look great. We need @Selebian - but "This was an exploratory study with potential uncontrolled confounders that limits broad generalization of the findings."
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274

    I've just had a holiday idea

    I wonder if I could get seven Welsh and/or Cornish bishops and/or monks to write letters to the top chaps at the seven Breton religious sites I'll be visiting

    I could hand deliver them, brought through Brittany entirely on foot as part of my 'pilgrimage'

    And wear my Royal Mail shirt as I do

    Does anyone know any Welsh or Cornish bishops or monks?

    No, in answer to your final question.

    Yes to your first, broadly speaking.

    Am wondering, why limit to bishops & monks? Surely there are assorted holymen, or rather holyfolk, of various creeds, denominations, heresies, etc. from Llanfairpwllgwyngyll to the Lizard, and back again/

    Nuns, imams, rabbis, ministers, pastors, snakehandlers - heck, broaden your horizons, and you can recruit St Leon of Land's End to write a few lines!

    Though identifying and locating his Breton opposite number might prove challenging? My guess is, you'll stumble upon {preferred pronoun} in some wine-splattered cavern, deep in the bowels of Brittany.
  • I've just had a holiday idea

    I wonder if I could get seven Welsh and/or Cornish bishops and/or monks to write letters to the top chaps at the seven Breton religious sites I'll be visiting

    I could hand deliver them, brought through Brittany entirely on foot as part of my 'pilgrimage'

    And wear my Royal Mail shirt as I do

    Does anyone know any Welsh or Cornish bishops or monks?

    That's a really good idea. An acquaintance of mine travelled to every European country, and tried to get a pint of Guinness in the capital of each one. Some were easy (Dublin, for instance). Others were harder. The Vatican City being one such.
    I've just written to the church in Llancarfan, where St Malo was born and he trained as a monk
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,003

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @KieranPAndrews
    NEW: Kate Forbes has rejected a job in Humza Yousaf's government and will go to the backbenches

    The Times understands she was offered the rural affairs portfolio

    What an idiot Yousaf was there, she has 48% of SNP members behind her and is more popular with Scots overall than he is, he should have at least offered her Deputy FM or Finance.

    Now Forbes and her supporters will be plotting against him from day 1
    Hard to offer her DFM when she's spent the past few weeks saying he's useless.
    John Major made Heseltine, his leadership rival in 1990, DPM and stayed PM for 7 years
    It's been quite a while - but I don't remember Heseltine standing at a hustings with Major saying "You're useless mate. Absolutely useless."
    And the aftermath of leadership elections has got a bit more gangster shootout since the days of Major and his cabinet of chums.

    Truss and Bozza both exiled defeated rivals to the far extremities. So did May and even Starmer to a degree.

    Speaks to me of parties not really knowing what they're for and using leadership elections to decide that. In the SNP's case, is it right-leaning old rural nationalists or left-leaning young urban nationalists.

    If they can't live under the same roof, that's a problem for the independence cause. Because you need both (plus some more) to get above fifty percent.
    It wouldn’t be a problem if there were a range of Independence supporting parties with a reasonable chance of winning seats, and willing to work together when necessary.
    SNP don't want to work with anyone, want to call the shots and make sure nothing much happens, full of grifters.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    I think I need to tweet something very favourable about Humza to get a like or retweet from the SNP.

    Earlier today I added Plaid Cymru to my growing collection after Hywel Williams retweeted something. I’ve bagged Labour, the Lib Dems and, er, UKIP (twice). And TIG back in the day.

    How about something like “Commentators are hugely underestimating how effective Humza Yousaf is going to be as first minister. We’re about to witness a Sputnik moment”.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,258
    edited March 2023

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    He'll poll well if he stands. He'll have taken the temperature and won't be doing it otherwise. If he doesn't stand that tells us he knows he'd get hammered.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    edited March 2023
    TimS said:

    I think I need to tweet something very favourable about Humza to get a like or retweet from the SNP.

    Earlier today I added Plaid Cymru to my growing collection after Hywel Williams retweeted something. I’ve bagged Labour, the Lib Dems and, er, UKIP (twice). And TIG back in the day.

    How about something like “Commentators are hugely underestimating how effective Humza Yousaf is going to be as first minister. We’re about to witness a Sputnik moment”.

    Albeit '“Commentators are hugely underestimating how ineffective Humza Yousaf is going to be as first minister. We’re about to witness a Virgin Orbit moment” might be more accurate!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    edited March 2023

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    Interestingly, when Corbyn was first elected in 1983 he defeated two sitting former Labour MPs in the shape of Michael O'Halloran and John Grant, the MPs for Islington North and Islington Central (which had been abolished).
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,545
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
    All it needed was for Corbyn to apologise. I doubt he would have meant it, any more than Fr Jack Hackett did. But it needed to be said. (Much as what will really do for BoJo is his utter lack of contrition, even more than the lying and much more than the damn parties.)

    But Corbyn is too vain/proud to do that, so here we are. And the brutal political calculation is that losing Islington North to Jezza (I'm not sure he will) is worth it if it tips a couple of red/blue marginals over the line.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    edited March 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    Interestingly, when Corbyn was first elected in 1983 he defeated two sitting former Labour MPs in the shape of Michael O'Halloran and John Grant.
    So things will be coming full circle for the next Labour MP there.

    Big moment though - he's still in the party for now, but if he wants to fight back that cannot remain the case.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    kamski said:

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Surprising honesty from Republican congressman.

    REPORTER: "Do you think there's any role for congress to play in reaction [to the Tennessee shooting]?"

    BURCHETT: "I don't see any real role that we could do other than mess things up."

    https://mobile.twitter.com/brenonade/status/1640514060532711429

    Not really. Entirely consistent with Republican dogma that has sought to discredit the government, state agencies, etc, at every turn, as part of their ideology of small government.

    In that sense it is dishonest because there is plenty that Congress could do on gun control, if it so chose, that would improve the situation without messing it up.
    Not really, since they have to deal with the Second Amendment, and a Supreme Court that interprets it literally.
    A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

    Not sure how you interpret that literally. It's gibberish.
    The original (ha ha) intent was -

    "A well regulated Militia" - the militia was the volunteer army created by getting everyone to down tools and get their guns.

    "being necessary to the security of a free State" - there was a deep belief that the militia with their rifled hunting guns had seen off the British professionals. This was a myth. It took George Washington a lot of effort to train the army to be... professional.

    "the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed" - it was believed that if you had a bunch of hardy frontiersmen, with their trusty long rifles, all able to shoot the corners of an ace of spades at a zillion yards, from hunting all the time... well, then you wouldn't need a standing army.
    Fpt

    Of course a government of slave owners would be quite keen on the right to keep and bear arms, what with having to protect/control their living chattels.
    The supporting views behind the 2A varied. A major one was not having a standing army - which was held to be immoral. The myth of the Minuteman was borne out of this hatred of a standing army, which in turn was seen as the feature of tyranny.

    A lot of the opposition to slavery was around the idea of slave catching patrols and having a standing paramilitary force checking papers etc.
    I had no idea "Minuteman" (I've looked it up now) referred to an early US militia. I've always associated the word with the ICBM.
    Similarly the Copperhead:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M712_Copperhead

    Also, during the Civil War, a citizen in the North who opposed the war and advocated restoration of the Union through negotiated settlement with the South.
    And of course a venomous snake.
    Copperhead Road is one of the best country songs of all time.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSbuawoNpvQ&ab_channel=SteveEarle-Topic
    Even better in conjunction with the official video with Tom Berenger playing John Lee Pettimore.
  • I've just had a holiday idea

    I wonder if I could get seven Welsh and/or Cornish bishops and/or monks to write letters to the top chaps at the seven Breton religious sites I'll be visiting

    I could hand deliver them, brought through Brittany entirely on foot as part of my 'pilgrimage'

    And wear my Royal Mail shirt as I do

    Does anyone know any Welsh or Cornish bishops or monks?

    No, in answer to your final question.

    Yes to your first, broadly speaking.

    Am wondering, why limit to bishops & monks? Surely there are assorted holymen, or rather holyfolk, of various creeds, denominations, heresies, etc. from Llanfairpwllgwyngyll to the Lizard, and back again/

    Nuns, imams, rabbis, ministers, pastors, snakehandlers - heck, broaden your horizons, and you can recruit St Leon of Land's End to write a few lines!

    Though identifying and locating his Breton opposite number might prove challenging? My guess is, you'll stumble upon {preferred pronoun} in some wine-splattered cavern, deep in the bowels of Brittany.
    I was thinking Bishops or monks because they're the corresponding positions to the ones in Brittany

    But I've just sent a message to a Church in Wales that I don't think has either, because it's the first home of St. Malo

    I think I'm most likely to be able to get letters from historically related Christian Churches than anyone else, and they're more relevant to my route

    I'm hoping I might get some nights in beautiful, ancient, religious accommodation because of my pilgrimage and deliveries
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274

    Foxy said:

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    A few folk left raging doubtless.



    Istr at least one PBer who had professional contact with Robison found her pleasant and on top of her brief, but what would he know?

    Reward for helping Humza get his job?

    Robison introduced the GRR bill…..
    I knew I could depend on you for the GRR angle.
    She is a duffer among duffers as well, one of Sturgeon's besties surprise surprise.
    If Yousaf wanted to try to unite the SNP, he would have appointed Forbes as his deputy.
    No way that arse would appoint her, he is a vindictive nasty git and will give her a crap job hoping she will fail, likely health that he has already wrecked.
    do you know him personally?
    I have seen the results of his efforts over the years and a 10 year old could have done no worse.
    Interesting. We now have a man of south asian descent as scottish first minster, a man of indian descent as PM and a man of south asian descent as mayor of london.
    Enoch Powell’s ghost is howling!
    Buffing his ghostly nails as Powelladamus, tipster of the year surely?
    Wasn’t Powell’s real bugbear the black rather than the brown man? I may be misremembering but I thought he had a highish respect for India, its culture(s) and forces due to serving there.
    Believe that Powell's usage included "the brown man [and woman]" as Black, that was custom of British India.

    Here is text of "Rivers of Blood" speech:

    https://anth1001.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/enoch-powell_speech.pdf

    Note that "India", "Pakistan'', "Africa" are NOT mentioned, at least directly. Nor is "brown", though "black" is once, and "colour" twice.

    Powell did refer to "the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents" (see below) which would be TOTAL non-White immigration, not just from West Indies & Africa?

    EP: "We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents, who are for the most part the material of the future growth of the immigrant descended population. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre. So insane are we that we actually permit unmarried persons to immigrate for the purpose of founding a family with spouses and fiancées whom they have never seen."
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,279
    edited March 2023

    I've just had a holiday idea

    I wonder if I could get seven Welsh and/or Cornish bishops and/or monks to write letters to the top chaps at the seven Breton religious sites I'll be visiting

    I could hand deliver them, brought through Brittany entirely on foot as part of my 'pilgrimage'

    And wear my Royal Mail shirt as I do

    Does anyone know any Welsh or Cornish bishops or monks?

    Take the tourist boat from Tenby to Caldey island and ask!

    Edit: maybe not: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/caldey-island-kevin-oconnell-abuse-22343557
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
    All it needed was for Corbyn to apologise. I doubt he would have meant it, any more than Fr Jack Hackett did. But it needed to be said. (Much as what will really do for BoJo is his utter lack of contrition, even more than the lying and much more than the damn parties.)

    But Corbyn is too vain/proud to do that, so here we are. And the brutal political calculation is that losing Islington North to Jezza (I'm not sure he will) is worth it if it tips a couple of red/blue marginals over the line.
    Maybe the Corbynista Party could field candidates in seats across the nation giving the Conservatives another (3rd) magnificent victory at Corbyn's gift. It's what the man lives for, adulation and Conservative Governments.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274

    I've just had a holiday idea

    I wonder if I could get seven Welsh and/or Cornish bishops and/or monks to write letters to the top chaps at the seven Breton religious sites I'll be visiting

    I could hand deliver them, brought through Brittany entirely on foot as part of my 'pilgrimage'

    And wear my Royal Mail shirt as I do

    Does anyone know any Welsh or Cornish bishops or monks?

    No, in answer to your final question.

    Yes to your first, broadly speaking.

    Am wondering, why limit to bishops & monks? Surely there are assorted holymen, or rather holyfolk, of various creeds, denominations, heresies, etc. from Llanfairpwllgwyngyll to the Lizard, and back again/

    Nuns, imams, rabbis, ministers, pastors, snakehandlers - heck, broaden your horizons, and you can recruit St Leon of Land's End to write a few lines!

    Though identifying and locating his Breton opposite number might prove challenging? My guess is, you'll stumble upon {preferred pronoun} in some wine-splattered cavern, deep in the bowels of Brittany.
    I was thinking Bishops or monks because they're the corresponding positions to the ones in Brittany

    But I've just sent a message to a Church in Wales that I don't think has either, because it's the first home of St. Malo

    I think I'm most likely to be able to get letters from historically related Christian Churches than anyone else, and they're more relevant to my route

    I'm hoping I might get some nights in beautiful, ancient, religious accommodation because of my pilgrimage and deliveries
    That sound good, focusing on the churches, or other hallowed spots, then looking for someone hanging about, who seems to fill the bill.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
    All it needed was for Corbyn to apologise. I doubt he would have meant it, any more than Fr Jack Hackett did. But it needed to be said. (Much as what will really do for BoJo is his utter lack of contrition, even more than the lying and much more than the damn parties.)

    But Corbyn is too vain/proud to do that, so here we are. And the brutal political calculation is that losing Islington North to Jezza (I'm not sure he will) is worth it if it tips a couple of red/blue marginals over the line.
    He claims to have apologised, but the issue he has (similar to Boris in fact, though he adopts a more angry frustrated tone at being disagreed with than Boris's angry befuddlement) is that he then says or does things that contradict the apology, but insists said apology remains all that is needed.

    Earlier this year he is reported as standing by the claim which saw him suspended, whilst insisting he had apologised and explained.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-liz-kendall-furious-28936130

    I think that was the same time he said something like he would 1000% be standing for Labour again. Bluster, or did he really think Keir was bluffing?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
    All it needed was for Corbyn to apologise. I doubt he would have meant it, any more than Fr Jack Hackett did. But it needed to be said. (Much as what will really do for BoJo is his utter lack of contrition, even more than the lying and much more than the damn parties.)

    But Corbyn is too vain/proud to do that, so here we are. And the brutal political calculation is that losing Islington North to Jezza (I'm not sure he will) is worth it if it tips a couple of red/blue marginals over the line.
    Maybe Corbyn is just honest ?

    An apology that is fake is not an apology.

    There is nothing stupider than "forcing " someone to make an apology. An apology -- to mean anything -- must be spontanoues.

    FWIW, Corbyn has nothing to apologise for.

    Also -- from Canavan to S.O. Davies to Peter Law to the Livingston Mayoralty, Labour normally lose these battles. I expect Corbyn to win comfortably.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503
    edited March 2023


    Believe that Powell's usage included "the brown man [and woman]" as Black, that was custom of British India.

    Here is text of "Rivers of Blood" speech:

    https://anth1001.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/enoch-powell_speech.pdf

    Note that "India", "Pakistan'', "Africa" are NOT mentioned, at least directly. Nor is "brown", though "black" is once, and "colour" twice.

    Powell did refer to "the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents" (see below) which would be TOTAL non-White immigration, not just from West Indies & Africa?

    EP: "We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents, who are for the most part the material of the future growth of the immigrant descended population. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre. So insane are we that we actually permit unmarried persons to immigrate for the purpose of founding a family with spouses and fiancées whom they have never seen."

    He seemed fixated upon the ‘negroes’ who were apparently making the life of an unnamed old woman in his constituency a misery.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    edited March 2023
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    That 'stick it' quote/characterisation may come back to haunt her. I'm always wary of those sort of accounts, designed to make someone look particularly tough or good - We remember as you say May's people leaking about how she tore Osborne a new strip or whatever, and it might have sounded good at the time, but in hindsight not the best move to frame it that way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
    All it needed was for Corbyn to apologise. I doubt he would have meant it, any more than Fr Jack Hackett did. But it needed to be said. (Much as what will really do for BoJo is his utter lack of contrition, even more than the lying and much more than the damn parties.)

    But Corbyn is too vain/proud to do that, so here we are. And the brutal political calculation is that losing Islington North to Jezza (I'm not sure he will) is worth it if it tips a couple of red/blue marginals over the line.
    Maybe Corbyn is just honest ?

    An apology that is fake is not an apology.

    There is nothing stupider than "forcing " someone to make an apology. An apology -- to mean anything -- must be spontanoues.

    FWIW, Corbyn has nothing to apologise for.

    Also -- from Canavan to S.O. Davies to Peter Law to the Livingston Mayoralty, Labour normally lose these battles. I expect Corbyn to win comfortably.
    Except on his own terms he cannot be honest in not offering an apology because he says he has apologised, many times. And if he is honest then we have to take him at his word that he did something worth apologising for. So the question is whether he is telling the truth about offering an apology, and whether it was a sincere apology.

    It's like when people defended him on that whole mural business - and not just the usual suspects - by claiming it was not obviously anti-semitic, but he couldn't defend himself on that basis because he apologised over it saying he hadn't paid it close enough attention and he agreed the contents were anti-semitic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    edited March 2023
    'The owner of the Guardian has issued an apology for the role the newspaper’s founders had in transatlantic slavery and announced a decade-long programme of restorative justice.

    The Scott Trust said it expected to invest more than £10m (US$12.3m, A$18.4m), with millions dedicated specifically to descendant communities linked to the Guardian’s 19th-century founders.'
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/mar/28/guardian-owner-apologises-founders-transatlantic-slavery-scott-trust
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274
    TimS said:

    I think I need to tweet something very favourable about Humza to get a like or retweet from the SNP.

    Earlier today I added Plaid Cymru to my growing collection after Hywel Williams retweeted something. I’ve bagged Labour, the Lib Dems and, er, UKIP (twice). And TIG back in the day.

    How about something like “Commentators are hugely underestimating how effective Humza Yousaf is going to be as first minister. We’re about to witness a Sputnik moment”.

    "SNP is a party often accused of being anti-English, but even its harshest critics cannot claim that it's anti-Asian, anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant or anti-people of colour."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    That 'stick it' quote/characterisation may come back to haunt her. I'm always wary of those sort of accounts, designed to make someone look particularly tough or good - remember May's people leaking about how she tore Osborne a new strip or whatever? Might have sounded good at the time, but in hindsight not the best move.
    Except Yousaf is May in this scenario, Forbes is Osborne and leaving the government
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    That 'stick it' quote/characterisation may come back to haunt her. I'm always wary of those sort of accounts, designed to make someone look particularly tough or good - remember May's people leaking about how she tore Osborne a new strip or whatever? Might have sounded good at the time, but in hindsight not the best move.
    Except Yousaf is May in this scenario, Forbes is Osborne and leaving the government
    Yes, but the 'stick it' quote is being framed to make her look good, not him, whereas with May it was the other way around - that's why it was clearly her people who leaked it.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    He'll poll well if he stands. He'll have taken the temperature and won't be doing it otherwise. If he doesn't stand that tells us he knows he'd get hammered.
    He may well poll fairly well simply through name recognition but he’ll still get thrashed by the Labour candidate. It’s one of the safest seats in the country but it’s also socially and ethnically diverse and he is a busted flush. Islington is not tower hamlets.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,545

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
    All it needed was for Corbyn to apologise. I doubt he would have meant it, any more than Fr Jack Hackett did. But it needed to be said. (Much as what will really do for BoJo is his utter lack of contrition, even more than the lying and much more than the damn parties.)

    But Corbyn is too vain/proud to do that, so here we are. And the brutal political calculation is that losing Islington North to Jezza (I'm not sure he will) is worth it if it tips a couple of red/blue marginals over the line.
    Maybe the Corbynista Party could field candidates in seats across the nation giving the Conservatives another (3rd) magnificent victory at Corbyn's gift. It's what the man lives for, adulation and Conservative Governments.
    Much easier to stay pure if you stay in eternal opposition. What's that Iain Macleod line, “The Labour Party scheme their schemes, The Liberal Party dream their dreams, But we have work to do.” There's quite a bit of truth in that. (Or rather there used to be, it's all gone a bit Pete Tong in recent years. Partly because wet One Nation Tory types turned out to be a bit too wet. Sorry about that.)
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,661
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    Very interesting comment piece by Andy Maciver on what an opportunity making Kate Forbes his DFM would be for Humza. Written, of course, before she turned down his offer. What an utter numpty Yousaf is. Read and despair for what might have been.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-humza-yousaf-should-make-kate-forbes-his-deputy/

    "Forbes may have had the will to change the weather, but it is generally the case that those from the centre or centre-right lack the consent: major change is easier to achieve from the left. And conversely, as a man of the left himself, Yousaf comes with the implicit consent to do necessary and difficult things to public services and the economy. If he has the will, he can exercise it through Forbes. Not only will he ensure he gets the job done but he will give himself a buffer in the process."
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274


    Believe that Powell's usage included "the brown man [and woman]" as Black, that was custom of British India.

    Here is text of "Rivers of Blood" speech:

    https://anth1001.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/enoch-powell_speech.pdf

    Note that "India", "Pakistan'', "Africa" are NOT mentioned, at least directly. Nor is "brown", though "black" is once, and "colour" twice.

    Powell did refer to "the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents" (see below) which would be TOTAL non-White immigration, not just from West Indies & Africa?

    EP: "We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents, who are for the most part the material of the future growth of the immigrant descended population. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre. So insane are we that we actually permit unmarried persons to immigrate for the purpose of founding a family with spouses and fiancées whom they have never seen."

    He seemed fixated upon the ‘negroes’ who were apparently making the life of an unnamed old woman in his constituency a misery.
    True. But Powell goes on about "Commonwealth immigrants" a broader category. And 50k?



  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    That 'stick it' quote/characterisation may come back to haunt her. I'm always wary of those sort of accounts, designed to make someone look particularly tough or good - remember May's people leaking about how she tore Osborne a new strip or whatever? Might have sounded good at the time, but in hindsight not the best move.
    STV and BBC Scotland were both out on the streets getting the reaction from the public yesterday, one comment from a gentleman in Dundee stood out as he said he quite liked Kate Forbes as she was fiesty and she sounded honest. The SNP have a lot of Westminster and Holyrood seats to defend in the Highlands, and Kate is one of the most popular and high profile politicians from that area with a huge majority that reflects that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    edited March 2023
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    He'll poll well if he stands. He'll have taken the temperature and won't be doing it otherwise. If he doesn't stand that tells us he knows he'd get hammered.
    He may well poll fairly well simply through name recognition but he’ll still get thrashed by the Labour candidate. It’s one of the safest seats in the country but it’s also socially and ethnically diverse and he is a busted flush. Islington is not tower hamlets.
    Oh, I'm sure Tower Hamlets is not all that bad...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_Tower_Hamlets

    Ah.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    I rather think people are missing the point about Starmer/the NEC barring Corbyn from standing. (Incidentally, Corbyn was rather keen on the NEC exercising its powers when he had a majority on it).

    The point is simple. If Corbyn stands for Labour, that would dominate much of the discourse, particularly in the right-wing press, throughout the GE campaign. To Labour's detriment. So the decision is as much electoral as principled.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    One thing's for sure, if Starmer doesn't win now the Left are going to explode in righteous fury.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,274
    Breaking News - NYT - Pence Must Testify to Jan. 6 Grand Jury, Judge Rules

    The ruling in Washington was the latest setback to efforts by former President Trump’s legal team to limit testimony to grand juries investigating him on various matters.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    Indeed, even Blair kept Tony Benn and Corbyn in Labour as Cameron and Sunak kept IDS, Truss and Johnson in the Conservatives. A brief suspension was all Starmer needed to do with Corbyn, not ban him from standing for Labour again completely
    All it needed was for Corbyn to apologise. I doubt he would have meant it, any more than Fr Jack Hackett did. But it needed to be said. (Much as what will really do for BoJo is his utter lack of contrition, even more than the lying and much more than the damn parties.)

    But Corbyn is too vain/proud to do that, so here we are. And the brutal political calculation is that losing Islington North to Jezza (I'm not sure he will) is worth it if it tips a couple of red/blue marginals over the line.
    Maybe the Corbynista Party could field candidates in seats across the nation giving the Conservatives another (3rd) magnificent victory at Corbyn's gift. It's what the man lives for, adulation and Conservative Governments.
    Much easier to stay pure if you stay in eternal opposition. What's that Iain Macleod line, “The Labour Party scheme their schemes, The Liberal Party dream their dreams, But we have work to do.” There's quite a bit of truth in that. (Or rather there used to be, it's all gone a bit Pete Tong in recent years. Partly because wet One Nation Tory types turned out to be a bit too wet. Sorry about that.)
    My MP used to be the quintessential Feudal Tory, Peter Temple-Morris. What a lovely man. Boris Johnson wasn't fit to shine his boots. He crossed the floor of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    edited March 2023

    I rather think people are missing the point about Starmer/the NEC barring Corbyn from standing. (Incidentally, Corbyn was rather keen on the NEC exercising its powers when he had a majority on it).

    The point is simple. If Corbyn stands for Labour, that would dominate much of the discourse, particularly in the right-wing press, throughout the GE campaign. To Labour's detriment. So the decision is as much electoral as principled.

    Not sure how that could be missed, the wording of the motion was explicitly based around his terrible electoral performance in 2019 and how his presence would be detrimental next time. It was not as much electoral as principled, it was almost wholly electoral!

    This meeting of the NEC considers and agrees that:

    1) in order to effect the NEC’s primary purpose to maximise the Labour Party’s prospects of winning the next general election, and to avoid any detrimental impact on the Labour Party’s standing with the electorate in the country as a whole;
    2) the Labour Party’s interests, and its political interests at the next general election, are not well served by Mr Corbyn running as a Labour Party candidate; and
    3) it is not in the best interests of the Labour Party for it to endorse Mr Corbyn as a Labour Party candidate at the next general election.


    The NEC point is an interesting one though, since naturally people have been pointing to comments from Starmer about local parties choosing their candidates. But people still have this tendency, even when they have a good point, to use a bad one. So there are people including the local party seemingly disavowing the ability of the NEC to make such a decision, when in fact that seems to be well within the rules. They could stick to it being a terrible decision, but they often go further.
  • EmeraldEmerald Posts: 55

    Foxy said:

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    Emerald said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    A few folk left raging doubtless.



    Istr at least one PBer who had professional contact with Robison found her pleasant and on top of her brief, but what would he know?

    Reward for helping Humza get his job?

    Robison introduced the GRR bill…..
    I knew I could depend on you for the GRR angle.
    She is a duffer among duffers as well, one of Sturgeon's besties surprise surprise.
    If Yousaf wanted to try to unite the SNP, he would have appointed Forbes as his deputy.
    No way that arse would appoint her, he is a vindictive nasty git and will give her a crap job hoping she will fail, likely health that he has already wrecked.
    do you know him personally?
    I have seen the results of his efforts over the years and a 10 year old could have done no worse.
    Interesting. We now have a man of south asian descent as scottish first minster, a man of indian descent as PM and a man of south asian descent as mayor of london.
    Enoch Powell’s ghost is howling!
    Buffing his ghostly nails as Powelladamus, tipster of the year surely?
    Wasn’t Powell’s real bugbear the black rather than the brown man? I may be misremembering but I thought he had a highish respect for India, its culture(s) and forces due to serving there.
    Believe that Powell's usage included "the brown man [and woman]" as Black, that was custom of British India.

    Here is text of "Rivers of Blood" speech:

    https://anth1001.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/enoch-powell_speech.pdf

    Note that "India", "Pakistan'', "Africa" are NOT mentioned, at least directly. Nor is "brown", though "black" is once, and "colour" twice.

    Powell did refer to "the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents" (see below) which would be TOTAL non-White immigration, not just from West Indies & Africa?

    EP: "We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents, who are for the most part the material of the future growth of the immigrant descended population. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre. So insane are we that we actually permit unmarried persons to immigrate for the purpose of founding a family with spouses and fiancées whom they have never seen."
    Lord knows what he would think of net migration of 300000 to 500000 per year such as we have today. So far his dire warnings havent been borne out though there are undoubtably big problems in the northern towns. So far.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,661
    fitalass said:

    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    That 'stick it' quote/characterisation may come back to haunt her. I'm always wary of those sort of accounts, designed to make someone look particularly tough or good - remember May's people leaking about how she tore Osborne a new strip or whatever? Might have sounded good at the time, but in hindsight not the best move.
    STV and BBC Scotland were both out on the streets getting the reaction from the public yesterday, one comment from a gentleman in Dundee stood out as he said he quite liked Kate Forbes as she was fiesty and she sounded honest. The SNP have a lot of Westminster and Holyrood seats to defend in the Highlands, and Kate is one of the most popular and high profile politicians from that area with a huge majority that reflects that.
    SNP may hang on to Highland seats that they hold because of split Unionist vote. However Angus MacNeil in the Western Isles is toast. He'll lose to Labour. Ferrygate is the final nail in his electoral coffin. It's no wonder he backed Forbes for leader.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271
    kle4 said:

    I rather think people are missing the point about Starmer/the NEC barring Corbyn from standing. (Incidentally, Corbyn was rather keen on the NEC exercising its powers when he had a majority on it).

    The point is simple. If Corbyn stands for Labour, that would dominate much of the discourse, particularly in the right-wing press, throughout the GE campaign. To Labour's detriment. So the decision is as much electoral as principled.

    Not sure how that could be missed, the wording of the motion was explicitly based around his terrible electoral performance in 2019 and how his presence would be detrimental next time. It was not as much electoral as principled, it was almost wholly electoral!

    This meeting of the NEC considers and agrees that:

    1) in order to effect the NEC’s primary purpose to maximise the Labour Party’s prospects of winning the next general election, and to avoid any detrimental impact on the Labour Party’s standing with the electorate in the country as a whole;
    2) the Labour Party’s interests, and its political interests at the next general election, are not well served by Mr Corbyn running as a Labour Party candidate; and
    3) it is not in the best interests of the Labour Party for it to endorse Mr Corbyn as a Labour Party candidate at the next general election.
    Fair enough, and that's spot on. But it doesn't really reflect the discussion here on PB, which was my point.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    OT. A great piece on the Cotswold hunt burying foxes alive and students at agricultural college tying foxes to cars and parading them. These people should be horse whipped and sent to spend the remainder of their lives in Rwanda. Who would miss them?.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292

    fitalass said:

    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    That 'stick it' quote/characterisation may come back to haunt her. I'm always wary of those sort of accounts, designed to make someone look particularly tough or good - remember May's people leaking about how she tore Osborne a new strip or whatever? Might have sounded good at the time, but in hindsight not the best move.
    STV and BBC Scotland were both out on the streets getting the reaction from the public yesterday, one comment from a gentleman in Dundee stood out as he said he quite liked Kate Forbes as she was fiesty and she sounded honest. The SNP have a lot of Westminster and Holyrood seats to defend in the Highlands, and Kate is one of the most popular and high profile politicians from that area with a huge majority that reflects that.
    SNP may hang on to Highland seats that they hold because of split Unionist vote. However Angus MacNeil in the Western Isles is toast. He'll lose to Labour. Ferrygate is the final nail in his electoral coffin. It's no wonder he backed Forbes for leader.
    I definitely have Na h-Eileanan an Iar as a Labour gain at the next GE, good decision by SLabour to select Torcuil Crichton as the candidate there. Speaking of the worsening ferry crisis faced by our Island communities..

    Hebrides News - Fire breaks out on MV Hebrides ferry
    http://www.hebrides-news.com/fire-breaks-out-on-mv-hebrides-ferry-28323.html

    "A fire broke out in the engine room of MV Hebrides at sea.

    The vessel returned to Uig pier in Skye where “further investigations are taking place.” Passengers were taken ashore.

    The incident occurred on the first day of normal ferry services to North Uist and Harris following tens weeks of closure for reconstruction.

    Sailings are now suspended until later tomorrow at least. The vessel will remain at Uig overnight.

    Fire crews attended following her arrival back at the pier.

    The incident occurred shortly after the Hebrides cast off with travellers and vehicles heading for Lochmaddy."
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796


    Believe that Powell's usage included "the brown man [and woman]" as Black, that was custom of British India.

    Here is text of "Rivers of Blood" speech:

    https://anth1001.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/enoch-powell_speech.pdf

    Note that "India", "Pakistan'', "Africa" are NOT mentioned, at least directly. Nor is "brown", though "black" is once, and "colour" twice.

    Powell did refer to "the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents" (see below) which would be TOTAL non-White immigration, not just from West Indies & Africa?

    EP: "We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents, who are for the most part the material of the future growth of the immigrant descended population. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in heaping up its own funeral pyre. So insane are we that we actually permit unmarried persons to immigrate for the purpose of founding a family with spouses and fiancées whom they have never seen."

    He seemed fixated upon the ‘negroes’ who were apparently making the life of an unnamed old woman in his constituency a misery.
    We've had a few Powell fans on here over the years. One in particular. Happily eventually banned
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 51,730
    Foxy said:

    Is it possible, that Humza Yousef just might surprise . . . to coin a phrase . . . on the upside???

    (Am ducking for cover under my desk!!!)

    Perhaps even outperform Ms Truss!
    He has to outlast her before you can have any such outlandish notions.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,545
    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292

    Foxy said:

    Is it possible, that Humza Yousef just might surprise . . . to coin a phrase . . . on the upside???

    (Am ducking for cover under my desk!!!)

    Perhaps even outperform Ms Truss!
    He has to outlast her before you can have any such outlandish notions.
    He will probable outlast a lettuce, but I doubt it will be long before the wheels come off his scooter.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527

    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433

    SKS fans etc etc
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Roger said:

    OT. A great piece on the Cotswold hunt burying foxes alive and students at agricultural college tying foxes to cars and parading them. These people should be horse whipped and sent to spend the remainder of their lives in Rwanda. Who would miss them?.

    Is it weird to find anthropomorphic foxes in cartoons etc quite sexy? Asking for a friend.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112

    TimS said:

    I think I need to tweet something very favourable about Humza to get a like or retweet from the SNP.

    Earlier today I added Plaid Cymru to my growing collection after Hywel Williams retweeted something. I’ve bagged Labour, the Lib Dems and, er, UKIP (twice). And TIG back in the day.

    How about something like “Commentators are hugely underestimating how effective Humza Yousaf is going to be as first minister. We’re about to witness a Sputnik moment”.

    "SNP is a party often accused of being anti-English, but even its harshest critics cannot claim that it's anti-Asian, anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant or anti-people of colour."
    Nice one, I should try that. #theenglishdon’tcount

    By the way for the original tankie Sputnik take here’s the tweet: https://twitter.com/clintehrlich/status/1496669703246282755?s=46
  • tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    We need a betting market on Corbyn being an MP after the next election.

    Personally, I don't think he would win it easily. My instinct is that his 64% vote in 2019 is principally tribal Labour rather than tribal Corbynist. But he'll get a big mob turning up to campaign for him so could be close.

    The Livingstone example isn't convincing to me. He was elected as first directly elected Mayor of London mid-term in a Labour Government with the Conservatives still in the doldrums and a fairly compelling Dick Whittington story. Corbyn is a pretty tired old man at the fag end of his career in any event, looking to eke it out into his fifth decade as MP, against the backdrop of a General Election where Labour will be chasing a landslide. Very different situations.

    Starmer will reason the risk of losing it is far less than the wider benefit of very visibly moving on from Corbyn.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,759
    Roger said:

    OT. A great piece on the Cotswold hunt burying foxes alive and students at agricultural college tying foxes to cars and parading them. These people should be horse whipped and sent to spend the remainder of their lives in Rwanda. Who would miss them?.

    Solid entertainment.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    kle4 said:

    One thing's for sure, if Starmer doesn't win now the Left are going to explode in righteous fury.

    I don't know how righteous the fury would be. He voted against his Party leadership more often than he voted for them. It's only right that he doesn't get elected on a party ticket. He's self indulgent to the point of being as responsible for Brexit as Boris Johnson.

    For most sane Tory haters they can't get rid of him fast enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    OT. A great piece on the Cotswold hunt burying foxes alive and students at agricultural college tying foxes to cars and parading them. These people should be horse whipped and sent to spend the remainder of their lives in Rwanda. Who would miss them?.

    Is it weird to find anthropomorphic foxes in cartoons etc quite sexy? Asking for a friend.
    Entire industries are built on that premise.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112

    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. We need a good May locals showing.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,135

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    We need a betting market on Corbyn being an MP after the next election.

    Personally, I don't think he would win it easily. My instinct is that his 64% vote in 2019 is principally tribal Labour rather than tribal Corbynist. But he'll get a big mob turning up to campaign for him so could be close.

    The Livingstone example isn't convincing to me. He was elected as first directly elected Mayor of London mid-term in a Labour Government with the Conservatives still in the doldrums and a fairly compelling Dick Whittington story. Corbyn is a pretty tired old man at the fag end of his career in any event, looking to eke it out into his fifth decade as MP, against the backdrop of a General Election where Labour will be chasing a landslide. Very different situations.

    Starmer will reason the risk of losing it is far less than the wider benefit of very visibly moving on from Corbyn.
    I think I would only be comfortable laying up to 2.2 or backing at 4.5+.

    Lots of imponderables and very few relevant examples so not convinced the posters with confidence either way have it right.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,135
    TimS said:

    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. We need a good May locals showing.
    LD MPs in blue wall may be higher if Con 31 LD 21 than Con 34 LD 23?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,796
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    She was patently a better candidate than him even if unelectable for reasons of the Wee Free. If he can't take the competition the omens don't look good
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,112

    TimS said:

    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. We need a good May locals showing.
    LD MPs in blue wall may be higher if Con 31 LD 21 than Con 34 LD 23?
    Probably. We need to see what’s happening in blue-yellow marginals to be sure, because the danger is going to be confusion over who’s best placed to beat the tories locally.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,256
    edited March 2023

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    FWIW I think Corbyn will win his seat easily if he stands as an Indy. He has Red Ken as a shining example of what can be achieved and, no doubt, Mr L will pile in to support his campaign.
    We need a betting market on Corbyn being an MP after the next election.

    Personally, I don't think he would win it easily. My instinct is that his 64% vote in 2019 is principally tribal Labour rather than tribal Corbynist. But he'll get a big mob turning up to campaign for him so could be close.

    The Livingstone example isn't convincing to me. He was elected as first directly elected Mayor of London mid-term in a Labour Government with the Conservatives still in the doldrums and a fairly compelling Dick Whittington story. Corbyn is a pretty tired old man at the fag end of his career in any event, looking to eke it out into his fifth decade as MP, against the backdrop of a General Election where Labour will be chasing a landslide. Very different situations.

    Starmer will reason the risk of losing it is far less than the wider benefit of very visibly moving on from Corbyn.
    Even if he won, it isn't like Corbyn would vote for Sunak to remain PM either. While given his past history he couldn't exactly be relied on to consistently support a Starmer government in the Commons, he'd vote for a Labour King's Speech, their budget, and any confidence motions. Losing Islington North to Corbyn would definitely be worth if it Labour win a few marginals from the Tories in return.
  • TimS said:

    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. We need a good May locals showing.
    LD MPs in blue wall may be higher if Con 31 LD 21 than Con 34 LD 23?
    The Lib Dem situation for a while has been...

    GOOD NEWS... If the Tories are polling this badly, we don't need to poll particularly well to make decent gains.

    BAD NEWS... And we're very much not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,631

    I've just had a holiday idea

    I wonder if I could get seven Welsh and/or Cornish bishops and/or monks to write letters to the top chaps at the seven Breton religious sites I'll be visiting

    I could hand deliver them, brought through Brittany entirely on foot as part of my 'pilgrimage'

    And wear my Royal Mail shirt as I do

    Does anyone know any Welsh or Cornish bishops or monks?

    That's a really good idea. An acquaintance of mine travelled to every European country, and tried to get a pint of Guinness in the capital of each one. Some were easy (Dublin, for instance). Others were harder. The Vatican City being one such.
    I've just written to the church in Llancarfan, where St Malo was born and he trained as a monk
    Try St Padarn's Llanbadarn Fawr as well.

    I do know both Andy John and Mary Stallard although I don't know either of them well. If however you approached Rowan Williams from all I know of him it's the sort of thing that might appeal to his slightly zany sense of humour.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,545

    TimS said:

    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433

    Broken sleazy Lib Dems on the slide. We need a good May locals showing.
    LD MPs in blue wall may be higher if Con 31 LD 21 than Con 34 LD 23?
    The Lib Dem situation for a while has been...

    GOOD NEWS... If the Tories are polling this badly, we don't need to poll particularly well to make decent gains.

    BAD NEWS... And we're very much not.
    For the Lib Dems, it's all about the efficiency of their vote. Which in turn depends on two questions;

    The one they control quite a bit is how well they can communicate the 30 or so constituencies (10 they hold + 20 targets, some pretty stretchy) they would like to win? That's communicating to themselves, to Labour and to the relevant voters. Same rough idea for this May, except it's 2000 or so council wards. Everywhere else is a waste, so even polling the Blue Wall subset might not be fine-grained enough to be informative.

    The one they can't really control is how badly the Conservatives will do in those places, because that defines their winning post.
  • The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,533

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    The same one as Anas Sarwar in fact. The old boys network isn't just for Englandshire...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003
    edited March 2023

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    No, he went to a private school like us. 'Hutchesons' Grammar School is an independent day school for boys and girls aged 3–18 in Glasgow, Scotland.' Indeed the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar went to the same private school. Albeit Douglas Ross went to a comprehensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutchesons'_Grammar_School
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,533
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    kle4 said:

    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    BREAKING: SNP leadership candidate Kate Forbes was tonight offered a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary by Humza Yousaf - after finishing a narrow second to him - and turned it down. Forbes, the Finance Secretary until today, will resign and return to the backbenches
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753485632118784

    Chris Musson@ChrisMusson
    Source on Kate Forbes rejecting Humza Yousaf's offer of a demotion to Rural Affairs Secretary:

    "She told him where to stick it"
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1640753756336783360

    Wise move by Kate Forbes. This huge mistake by Humza Yousaf is right up there with the biggest error Theresa May made in her first 24hrs as PM when she sacked George Osborne instead of retaining the most politically astute Minister in Cameron's Cabinet in a very senior role in her new Government. But also right up there is appointing Shona Robison as his Deputy FM, she is no John Swinney and that will quickly become evident as she will be about as much use as a chocolate teapot when it comes to defending him and his government on bad news days at Holyrood. And there is going to be a lot of those in the coming weeks and months.

    That 'stick it' quote/characterisation may come back to haunt her. I'm always wary of those sort of accounts, designed to make someone look particularly tough or good - remember May's people leaking about how she tore Osborne a new strip or whatever? Might have sounded good at the time, but in hindsight not the best move.
    STV and BBC Scotland were both out on the streets getting the reaction from the public yesterday, one comment from a gentleman in Dundee stood out as he said he quite liked Kate Forbes as she was fiesty and she sounded honest. The SNP have a lot of Westminster and Holyrood seats to defend in the Highlands, and Kate is one of the most popular and high profile politicians from that area with a huge majority that reflects that.
    SNP may hang on to Highland seats that they hold because of split Unionist vote. However Angus MacNeil in the Western Isles is toast. He'll lose to Labour. Ferrygate is the final nail in his electoral coffin. It's no wonder he backed Forbes for leader.
    I definitely have Na h-Eileanan an Iar as a Labour gain at the next GE, good decision by SLabour to select Torcuil Crichton as the candidate there. Speaking of the worsening ferry crisis faced by our Island communities..

    Hebrides News - Fire breaks out on MV Hebrides ferry
    http://www.hebrides-news.com/fire-breaks-out-on-mv-hebrides-ferry-28323.html

    "A fire broke out in the engine room of MV Hebrides at sea.

    The vessel returned to Uig pier in Skye where “further investigations are taking place.” Passengers were taken ashore.

    The incident occurred on the first day of normal ferry services to North Uist and Harris following tens weeks of closure for reconstruction.

    Sailings are now suspended until later tomorrow at least. The vessel will remain at Uig overnight.

    Fire crews attended following her arrival back at the pier.

    The incident occurred shortly after the Hebrides cast off with travellers and vehicles heading for Lochmaddy."
    I was talking to an engineer who semi-regularly gets the very ancient ferry to Arran. He said he spends most of his journey thinking 'Shouldn't be making _that_ noise.' 'Hrm - that shudder isn't right' etc etc.

    I'm sure this won't end with a ferry full of people at the bottom of the sea.

    Well, almost sure.

    Kinda.

    Damn those Westminster idiots!...
  • HYUFD said:

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    No, he went to a private school like us. 'Hutchesons' Grammar School is an independent day school for boys and girls aged 3–18 in Glasgow, Scotland.' Indeed the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar went to the same private school. Albeit Douglas Ross went to a comprehensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutchesons'_Grammar_School
    Hurrah, it is remarkable what a private education for the children/grandchildren of humble immigrants from Pakistan.
  • ohnotnow said:

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    The same one as Anas Sarwar in fact. The old boys network isn't just for Englandshire...
    Fascinating.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,003

    Have we done this one yet?

    Blue Wall Voting Intention (26 March):

    Labour 39% (+3)
    Conservative 31% (-3)
    Liberal Democrat 21% (-2)
    Reform UK 4% (–)
    Green 4% (+1)
    Other 0% (-1)

    Changes +/- 12 March


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1640745570779410433

    'When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, 37% (-1) of Blue Wall voters choose Rishi Sunak, and 37% (+2) choose Keir Starmer. 26% (-1) say they don’t know.'
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-26-march-2023/
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Islington North vox pops on BBC London News not especially supportive of Starmer this evening.

    If Blair could tolerate Corbyn then Starmer should be able to do so. It is an unnecessary fight to pick. A bit like when Blair put up Dobson as Mayoral candidate, to lose to Livingstone then grudgingly readmitted Ken to the party.

    It probably will lose some votes to the Greens, but not too many.
    During the Blair years Corbyn was a nonentity, nobody took a blind bit of notice of anything he said, Having been leader the Tory press in particular were going to amplify his every utterance on Israel and the Ukraine to embarrass the Labour Party. Overall Labour's prospects are significantly improved by him being booted out of the party.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,503

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    I believe any school in Scotland appended by 'grammar' only has it for historical reasons, mine certainly did.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,533
    HYUFD said:

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    No, he went to a private school like us. 'Hutchesons' Grammar School is an independent day school for boys and girls aged 3–18 in Glasgow, Scotland.' Indeed the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar went to the same private school. Albeit Douglas Ross went to a comprehensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutchesons'_Grammar_School
    This is the best argument you've ever made about the end result of comprehensive education.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,631

    HYUFD said:

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    No, he went to a private school like us. 'Hutchesons' Grammar School is an independent day school for boys and girls aged 3–18 in Glasgow, Scotland.' Indeed the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar went to the same private school. Albeit Douglas Ross went to a comprehensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutchesons'_Grammar_School
    Hurrah, it is remarkable what a private education for the children/grandchildren of humble immigrants from Pakistan.
    What does it do for arrogant ones?

    Not that you would know of course, Mr Eagles, given your legendary modesty...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,631
    ohnotnow said:

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    The same one as Anas Sarwar in fact. The old boys network isn't just for Englandshire...
    TBF Wales is more shockingly nepotistic and corrupt than either of them.
  • Struggling to see how the member for *Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch* squares 'Rural Affairs are so unimportant it's insulting to be given the opportunity to represent them in the Cabinet of the national government'.

    https://twitter.com/FionasWriting/status/1640800542749237248
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    ohnotnow said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Humza Yousaf exit markets are going to be fun.

    I'm going to go for late 2024/earlier 2025.

    All dependent on the next GE.

    I've discovered something very disturbing about Humza Yousaf.

    He went to a grammar school.

    No, he went to a private school like us. 'Hutchesons' Grammar School is an independent day school for boys and girls aged 3–18 in Glasgow, Scotland.' Indeed the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar went to the same private school. Albeit Douglas Ross went to a comprehensive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutchesons'_Grammar_School
    This is the best argument you've ever made about the end result of comprehensive education.
    Ross, Sarwar and Yousaf? The whole lot seems like a campaign message for the end of all education, to be honest.
This discussion has been closed.