Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
We all thought that of Cameron twelve months before the election too.
I remember. But the relative depth of the gestalt around the Labour government (then) and the Conservative government (now) argues that it will be very, very hard for Sunak to move the swing-meter back.
If Sunak does win he would be the first PM ever to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party since universal suffrage in 1918 and the first PM to win a general election after 14 or more years of his party in power since universal suffrage too (assuming a 2024 general election).
So the historical odds are against him
Eventually they will lose, even with the massive in built bias towards the Tory party, I think they would be better off taking a small defeat now, than winning for another 5 years, and then taking a brutal hammering, one thing is for sure they haven't got the answers this country needs, another 5 years will just accentuate this point.
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
We all thought that of Cameron twelve months before the election too.
I remember. But the relative depth of the gestalt around the Labour government (then) and the Conservative government (now) argues that it will be very, very hard for Sunak to move the swing-meter back.
If Sunak does win he would be the first PM ever to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party since universal suffrage in 1918 and the first PM to win a general election after 14 or more years of his party in power since universal suffrage too (assuming a 2024 general election).
So the historical odds are against him
Eventually they will lose, even with the massive in built bias towards the Tory party, I think they would be better off taking a small defeat now, than winning for another 5 years, and then taking a brutal hammering, one thing is for sure they haven't got the answers this country needs, another 5 years will just accentuate this point.
I don't know why I'm posting this, because it's so boring. But, hey, nobody else worries about that.
Johnson's PPS (Martin Reynolds) sent an email to around 200 people inviting them to the BYOB garden party in May 2020. 200. In the event, 30-40 turned up - I'd guess many of those who didn't were baffled at the invite. But Boris didn't see the email. And he didn't know anything about it until he turned up. And he didn't know that quite a few of his closest advisers thought that this was a bad idea. Of all the stuff that went on, this one stretches credulity the most.
Do me a favour.
If Reynolds had invited 200 people to a piss up in the PM's back garden without informing the PM he should have been sacked for breach of trust and flouting security.
Irrespective of the lockdown situation at the time.
Well quite. Which is why I don't believe the PM wasn't in the loop. And I don't believe he wasn't copied into the email. And I don't believe that even if he missed the email he wasn't told about it.
Labour lead up 7 to 26 in this week’s YouGov published just now in The Times Red Box. Labour 49 (+3) Tories 23 (-4) LibDems 10 (-1) Greens 6 (nc) Reform 6 (nc) SNP (-1) No fieldwork dates, but likely to be 21st and 22nd March. Looks like an outlier.
Labour voteshare steady at mid to high forties. Tory voteshare is all over the place.
Calling 43-49 "steady at mid to high forties" is a bit of a stretch, no?
43 is mid. 49 is high, no?
But "steady"?
Could be. 43 and 49 are both within MOE of 46. You can't do that for 20 and 35.
Does anyone know if the Opinium polls last night used their Patent Swingback Anticipator? A lot of the better Conservative polls push the "moan but will vote" Conservative inclined voters into the blue column. Anticipating more swingback on top of that looks a bit like the sort of double counting that gets banks into so much trouble.
Labour lead up 7 to 26 in this week’s YouGov published just now in The Times Red Box. Labour 49 (+3) Tories 23 (-4) LibDems 10 (-1) Greens 6 (nc) Reform 6 (nc) SNP (-1) No fieldwork dates, but likely to be 21st and 22nd March. Looks like an outlier.
The Deltapoll euphoria seems to have lasted less than two days. A 13 point turn around in Tory fortunes in seven days always looked a long shot!
Whereas a seven point turnaround in Labour’s raises no eyebrows? An outlier really is a poll you disagree with.
Wild fluctations in polling leads from the same company of the order seen by Deltapoll have to raise questions over the underlying methodology or even whether there are just errors creeping into the processing of the data. We have seen leads of them of +16, +23, +10 from them in the space of 2 weeks.
When the electorate is so clearly in flux, it is to be expected that results will show more variation than usual, as the stratification that all companies use within the sampling is less likely to lead to predictable outcomes. However, a 13% variation in one direction over a week is ridiculous. A 7% variation in the opposite direction is less obviously so.
At the other extreme, the most stable polling is more likely to come from companies which impute current voting patterns based on past behaviour rather than current answers i.e. those which assume that some "don't knows" will eventually vote as before. But that also raises a whole series of questions about what the poll is actually measuring, and whether the methodology could properly capture a major shift in opinion.
Labour lead up 7 to 26 in this week’s YouGov published just now in The Times Red Box. Labour 49 (+3) Tories 23 (-4) LibDems 10 (-1) Greens 6 (nc) Reform 6 (nc) SNP (-1) No fieldwork dates, but likely to be 21st and 22nd March. Looks like an outlier.
Labour voteshare steady at mid to high forties. Tory voteshare is all over the place.
Calling 43-49 "steady at mid to high forties" is a bit of a stretch, no?
43 is mid. 49 is high, no?
But "steady"?
Could be. 43 and 49 are both within MOE of 46. You can't do that for 20 and 35.
Does anyone know if the Opinium polls last night used their Patent Swingback Anticipator? A lot of the better Conservative polls push the "moan but will vote" Conservative inclined voters into the blue column. Anticipating more swingback on top of that looks a bit like the sort of double counting that gets banks into so much trouble.
Essentially my point below, but much more succinctly worded.
We got chatting to an Italian couple at lunch yesterday they're both recent supporters of Meloni. Voted M5S at the election. They both said that they've been impressed by the grown up way she's been leading from the front on a lot of issues and that the media rhetoric about her was completely overdone in the run up to the election. They say that quietly people are beggining to support her but won't say so out loud to other Italians.
I think Italian pollsters will need to start looking at a spiral of silence adjustment if this continues because Meloni strikes me as someone who is going to be around as PM for a pretty long time. She is Italy's Mrs Thatcher by all accounts and the more the Italian media push the narrative that she's taking Italy back to fascism the more support I think she'll get because it's blatantly not true.
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
That's about where I score it at this moment in time. If I was asked to make a spread market on Lab GE seats I'd say "fuck off, are you kidding?" - and when then persuaded by a gun to the temple I'd put up something like 340/345.
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
That's about where I score it at this moment in time. If I was asked to make a spread market on Lab GE seats I'd say "fuck off, are you kidding?" - and when then persuaded by a gun to the temple I'd put up something like 340/345.
Sell at £10 per seat if that's your over/under line.
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
We all thought that of Cameron twelve months before the election too.
True - and there are a number of factors which still make the outcome of the next GE quite tricky to call. Right now, I'd say a small Labour majority is *probably* the most likely, maybe picking up a half dozen extra seats in Scotland to shore it up. I reckon the LDs will outperform expectations somewhat and maybe return 30-odd MPs, potentially back to the 'third party' in the chamber.
But on the other hand - and this is just gut feel really - a lot of tory *voters* (as opposed to the insane cabal that is their membership) will feel that Rishi is a decent sort, and they haven't been hit too hard financially so while Spaffer or Truss were too disgusting/stupid/embarassing/etc, Sunak gives less pause for thought in the voting booth. That his polling is outperforming his party is I think a little actual evidence of this.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
That's about where I score it at this moment in time. If I was asked to make a spread market on Lab GE seats I'd say "fuck off, are you kidding?" - and when then persuaded by a gun to the temple I'd put up something like 340/345.
My thoughts are - what fluctuations in the market price vs now are probable.
As in, is there a point where buying will be very likely cheap.
Have we done this ? The move for reparations for slavery is moving forward. Two Labour MPs demanded we pay reparations to descendents and in San Francisco a proposal to pay $5Million per eligble person plus $97K annual income for 250 years, one of many, is gathering quite a bit of support. Ironic as California was never a slave state but "racial justice" seems to be a growing priority these days.
The numbers here clearly are not going to work, but I note that the SF proposal reported by the Guardian is not "reparations for slavery" but "for decades of racist treatment by the city government" (i.e. racist housing policies, policing, etc). Those are actions that affected people still alive today, both directly and indirectly (if your father couldn't buy a house because of redlining, you are today a lot less financially well off as a consequence).
It’s proponents are putting it forward and tying it to slavery as well. It is well intentioned but the numbers are mad and using the term ‘reparations’ is unhelpful. Compensation is probably a better term for discriminatory outcomes. Whether $5 million and $97K a year for 240 years is a fair recompense remains to be seen.
Other places in the US are starting to do this and tying it to reparations for slavery. Evanston in Illinois, for example, raises taxes ring fenced to help black communities.
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
We all thought that of Cameron twelve months before the election too.
I remember. But the relative depth of the gestalt around the Labour government (then) and the Conservative government (now) argues that it will be very, very hard for Sunak to move the swing-meter back.
If Sunak does win he would be the first PM ever to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party since universal suffrage in 1918 and the first PM to win a general election after 14 or more years of his party in power since universal suffrage too (assuming a 2024 general election).
So the historical odds are against him
Eventually they will lose, even with the massive in built bias towards the Tory party, I think they would be better off taking a small defeat now, than winning for another 5 years, and then taking a brutal hammering, one thing is for sure they haven't got the answers this country needs, another 5 years will just accentuate this point.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
You of all people should know what it takes to turn a brand round after it's hit the skids...
Outside of the few big ones, as HY explained, Labour look by far the worst heat map. What does Starmer stand for? Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, The Rich. The biggest one, DON’T KNOW is pretty awful alone for a party desperately trying to avoid a 1992 scenario all over again.
Outside the biggest one, Tory’s then have little bad but a whole load of very good voter thoughts. “What does Rishi Sunak stand for?” Healthcare. The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. Power. The poor. Hope.
The Labour one is definitely worse to me. Rather worryingly - nay very worrying for anyone hoping for a change of government 😒
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
That's about where I score it at this moment in time. If I was asked to make a spread market on Lab GE seats I'd say "fuck off, are you kidding?" - and when then persuaded by a gun to the temple I'd put up something like 340/345.
Sell at £10 per seat if that's your over/under line.
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
That's about where I score it at this moment in time. If I was asked to make a spread market on Lab GE seats I'd say "fuck off, are you kidding?" - and when then persuaded by a gun to the temple I'd put up something like 340/345.
My thoughts are - what fluctuations in the market price vs now are probable.
As in, is there a point where buying will be very likely cheap.
Well yes - but assessed volatility and upside v downside risk should always be in the current quote.
At least Owen Jones suggests partial alternatives, rather than just breaking up the Met. I'd also suggest looking at countries with lower recidivism rates than ours.
We got chatting to an Italian couple at lunch yesterday they're both recent supporters of Meloni. Voted M5S at the election. They both said that they've been impressed by the grown up way she's been leading from the front on a lot of issues and that the media rhetoric about her was completely overdone in the run up to the election. They say that quietly people are beggining to support her but won't say so out loud to other Italians.
I think Italian pollsters will need to start looking at a spiral of silence adjustment if this continues because Meloni strikes me as someone who is going to be around as PM for a pretty long time. She is Italy's Mrs Thatcher by all accounts and the more the Italian media push the narrative that she's taking Italy back to fascism the more support I think she'll get because it's blatantly not true.
If she succeeds on the economy, she could lead Italy to a stronger political position in Europe than it's had since unification.
We got chatting to an Italian couple at lunch yesterday they're both recent supporters of Meloni. Voted M5S at the election. They both said that they've been impressed by the grown up way she's been leading from the front on a lot of issues and that the media rhetoric about her was completely overdone in the run up to the election. They say that quietly people are beggining to support her but won't say so out loud to other Italians.
I think Italian pollsters will need to start looking at a spiral of silence adjustment if this continues because Meloni strikes me as someone who is going to be around as PM for a pretty long time. She is Italy's Mrs Thatcher by all accounts and the more the Italian media push the narrative that she's taking Italy back to fascism the more support I think she'll get because it's blatantly not true.
Meloni is also the only right of centre leader of a major western nation at the moment apart from Sunak and the PM of Japan.
Whatever you think of her she has defied the current shift to social democracy in most of the West Post Covid
Those who try to claim that this is all past us now and we need to move on really have not engaged with the country's mood. There will be a national cathartic day of reckoning and it's called the General Election.
For what it's worth, I suspect/fear that the Tories will do OK at the next General Election. However, they are going to get a punishment beating at the Local Elections later this year. That's when the public is going to really put the boot in. But by the next General Election, the general flight back to tribalism will take place, the fear of a Labour Government will be cranked up and Sunak will be able to present himself as a vaguely normal human being, and the public will start to forget about Boris, Truss, lockdown, Brexit etc etc etc. Time to move on, and all that. The Tories will lose the General Election, but the "cathartic day of reckoning" will be sooner than that. (Unfortunately.)
I think we are probably looking at a small Labour majority myself (potentially made bigger if the SNP implode). It’s the election after next that will be interesting though. Highly plausible the Tories have a torrid time in opposition, Labour do a decent enough job and they increase their majority in 2028/9. But a ways to go yet.
Given the 2019 results, the May elections could well given false hope to the Conservative party.
I think Starmer is looking at a reasonable majority - 50 or so.
We all thought that of Cameron twelve months before the election too.
I remember. But the relative depth of the gestalt around the Labour government (then) and the Conservative government (now) argues that it will be very, very hard for Sunak to move the swing-meter back.
If Sunak does win he would be the first PM ever to win a 5th consecutive general election for his party since universal suffrage in 1918 and the first PM to win a general election after 14 or more years of his party in power since universal suffrage too (assuming a 2024 general election).
So the historical odds are against him
Eventually they will lose, even with the massive in built bias towards the Tory party, I think they would be better off taking a small defeat now, than winning for another 5 years, and then taking a brutal hammering, one thing is for sure they haven't got the answers this country needs, another 5 years will just accentuate this point.
Indeed had Kinnock narrowly won in 1992, Heseltine or Portillo might have beaten him in 1997. Instead of Blair winning a landslide in 1997 and the Conservatives being out of power for 13 years
Dan Wootton in the Daily Mail has the oddest take on yesterdays proceedings I have seen so far. A deranged Witch Hunt. I seriously doubt any but the most ardent Johnson fans believe this to be the case.
The Sturgeon Era: control, paranoia and vanity Few politicians have seen their reputation collapse so completely so quickly as Nicola Sturgeon. There is a very good reason for this - behind her endless rhetoric her real legacy was failure. http://robinmcalpine.org/the-sturgeon-era-control-paranoia-and-vanity/
Dan Wootton in the Daily Mail has the oddest take on yesterdays proceedings I have seen so far. A deranged Witch Hunt. I seriously doubt any but the most ardent Johnson fans believe this to be the case.
It's clear the Committee is out to get Bojo one way or another....whether he deseves it based on the submissions i don't know...Not sure impartiality comes into it judging from hectoring tones of those questioning him yesterday.
Mr. G, saw some videos recently (some history, some contemporary) regarding land China historically considers its own but within Russia's present borders. That, and desires for resources, could make for interesting times.
At least Owen Jones suggests partial alternatives, rather than just breaking up the Met. I'd also suggest looking at countries with lower recidivism rates than ours.
Yes just 'break it up!' doesn't get us too far. You have to design an alternative model that's going to work better.
Kasparov's tone is quite interesting because there is alignment between pro-Western Russian liberals and anti-Western Russian nationalists on this question. It's dangerous for Putin because that's exactly the coalition it would take to unseat him in a colour revolution.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
It’s 2025! and we are washing up, with benefit of hindsight, what happened in 2024 election and why. What did we miss?
Did the 1992 scenario repeated in 2024 simply boil down to Tory’s having a lot more money to spend on it than Labour?
When do you actually start general election campaign expenditure, and campaigning - about six weeks to go?
From early 2023 the Tories were clearly up and running with the stronger election unit - aggressive, busy, working effectively together with mainstream media, getting results, whilst Labour’s was non existent until the bill boards appeared about five weeks to go, followed by the now “notorious” mass balloon release.
So it wasn’t how clever for Tories to sack, disown and politically bury Boris, to already give the voters a government change before the election what won it, as much as it now appears it utterly negated Labours “time for change” campaign - that Sunak was thought of on election day as The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. The poor. Hope. whilst Starmer and Labour thought of as Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, was actually perceptions engineered, fake and created, cultivated over a long period of time, spending lots of money on it.
And we should have realised this in advance, from those early 2023 heat maps. 🤷♀️
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Mr. G, saw some videos recently (some history, some contemporary) regarding land China historically considers its own but within Russia's present borders. That, and desires for resources, could make for interesting times.
There was much debate (to the point it started to become quite farcical) before the 2010 election as to whether or not Cameron had “sealed the deal” with the electorate. I remember this being talked about a lot on here. There were many who took the view that with the sort of poll leads he was registering there was no chance of anything other than a decent Tory majority in 2010. Others were cautioning swing back and the potential for a campaign to expose weaknesses in the Tory position.
As it turned out the latter position was the correct one. Cameron hadn’t sealed the deal. He’d done enough to get the Tories into pole position but without the enthusiasm to sweep them into power with a majority. The Labour campaign had been effective at highlighting peoples concerns about the Tories taking away benefits and support, and the Cleggasm had diverted attention away from the “time for a change” Tory narrative to a Lib Dem change instead. But Labour were too clapped out to salvage a minority or coalition government of their own.
There are interesting parallels as we sit here in 2023. Starmer has a commanding position in the polls, but has he, unlike Cameron, “sealed the deal”? I’m not convinced he has yet. The big question will be whether he can before the GE campaign, and also whether the Tories are now so toxic that he might eke out a majority by default.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
Starmer's advisers will be absolutely delighted by those mind map responses.
They will not at this stage be spooked by the large "Don't know" and somewhat smaller "nothing" responses for Starmer, and in any case those are rather surprisingly for a LOTO no larger than those for Sunak - a PM and former Chancellor who has by now had several years in high office to define his values through the implementation of his policies. For Labour, the "don't know" and smaller "nothing" responses will shrink in the run up to the general election campaign, especially in the final 6 weeks of the campaign proper, as the party's offer is defined clearly. Remember 2017, when Labour's focus on policy closed the polling gap?
What is important for Labour is that all the other key messages in large print are positive ones that Labour would want to see: i.e. Helping the country/people, fairness/equality, change, good, honesty (bigger than "dishonesty"), A better Britain. The fact that "healthcare/the NHS" is not larger is a bit surprising but it is no bad thing if people are associating Starmer with values rather than a specific policy area. You need a magnifying class to see poor ones such as "wokeness".
Just as importantly for Labour, Sunak's responses are nearly all awful ones. The big print responses apart from "Don't know" include: The rich, Corruption/greed, Dishonesty ("honesty" is tiny), Themselves. "The Economy" is more a reflection of his background as Chancellor but can be interpreted both ways. "Helping the country/people", "Fairness/equality" and "A better Britain" are there but in far smaller print than the print accorded to Starmer.
At least Owen Jones suggests partial alternatives, rather than just breaking up the Met. I'd also suggest looking at countries with lower recidivism rates than ours.
Yes just 'break it up!' doesn't get us too far. You have to design an alternative model that's going to work better.
It’s an unusual day when PB-ers write well of Owen Jones!
There was much debate (to the point it started to become quite farcical) before the 2010 election as to whether or not Cameron had “sealed the deal” with the electorate. I remember this being talked about a lot on here. There were many who took the view that with the sort of poll leads he was registering there was no chance of anything other than a decent Tory majority in 2010. Others were cautioning swing back and the potential for a campaign to expose weaknesses in the Tory position.
As it turned out the latter position was the correct one. Cameron hadn’t sealed the deal. He’d done enough to get the Tories into pole position but without the enthusiasm to sweep them into power with a majority. The Labour campaign had been effective at highlighting peoples concerns about the Tories taking away benefits and support, and the Cleggasm had diverted attention away from the “time for a change” Tory narrative to a Lib Dem change instead. But Labour were too clapped out to salvage a minority or coalition government of their own.
There are interesting parallels as we sit here in 2023. Starmer has a commanding position in the polls, but has he, unlike Cameron, “sealed the deal”? I’m not convinced he has yet. The big question will be whether he can before the GE campaign, and also whether the Tories are now so toxic that he might eke out a majority by default.
What does "seal the deal" mean and how will we know when Starmer has done it? - apart from the obvious of winning the election.
Mr. G, saw some videos recently (some history, some contemporary) regarding land China historically considers its own but within Russia's present borders. That, and desires for resources, could make for interesting times.
Irredentism is such fun, isn't it?
I did say at the start that one reason Putin was fighting with one hand behind his back was the need to shore up Russia's Far East. Russia is just too big for instant force mobilisation.
It’s 2025! and we are washing up, with benefit of hindsight, what happened in 2024 election and why. What did we miss?
Did the 1992 scenario repeated in 2024 simply boil down to Tory’s having a lot more money to spend on it than Labour?
When do you actually start general election campaign expenditure, and campaigning - about six weeks to go?
From early 2023 the Tories were clearly up and running with the stronger election unit - aggressive, busy, working effectively together with mainstream media, getting results, whilst Labour’s was non existent until the bill boards appeared about five weeks to go, followed by the now “notorious” mass balloon release.
So it wasn’t how clever for Tories to sack, disown and politically bury Boris, to already give the voters a government change before the election what won it, as much as it now appears it utterly negated Labours “time for change” campaign - that Sunak was thought of on election day as The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. The poor. Hope. whilst Starmer and Labour thought of as Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, was actually perceptions engineered, fake and created, cultivated over a long period of time, spending lots of money on it.
And we should have realised this in advance, from those early 2023 heat maps. 🤷♀️
You appear not to realise that the frequency of the responses is related to the size of print. If you did you would have drawn the opposite conclusions.
At least Owen Jones suggests partial alternatives, rather than just breaking up the Met. I'd also suggest looking at countries with lower recidivism rates than ours.
Yes just 'break it up!' doesn't get us too far. You have to design an alternative model that's going to work better.
It’s an unusual day when PB-ers write well of Owen Jones!
An underrated pundit imo. Yes he does mono-eyed leftist polemic with the best of them but some of his output is quite nuanced and thoughtful.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
There was much debate (to the point it started to become quite farcical) before the 2010 election as to whether or not Cameron had “sealed the deal” with the electorate. I remember this being talked about a lot on here. There were many who took the view that with the sort of poll leads he was registering there was no chance of anything other than a decent Tory majority in 2010. Others were cautioning swing back and the potential for a campaign to expose weaknesses in the Tory position.
As it turned out the latter position was the correct one. Cameron hadn’t sealed the deal. He’d done enough to get the Tories into pole position but without the enthusiasm to sweep them into power with a majority. The Labour campaign had been effective at highlighting peoples concerns about the Tories taking away benefits and support, and the Cleggasm had diverted attention away from the “time for a change” Tory narrative to a Lib Dem change instead. But Labour were too clapped out to salvage a minority or coalition government of their own.
There are interesting parallels as we sit here in 2023. Starmer has a commanding position in the polls, but has he, unlike Cameron, “sealed the deal”? I’m not convinced he has yet. The big question will be whether he can before the GE campaign, and also whether the Tories are now so toxic that he might eke out a majority by default.
Spectator TV made two interesting points about yesterday. First, that the Windsor rebellion was small and largely confined to the usual suspects, but secondly, Rishi's worst nightmare would be Boris getting 10 days, being recalled, and then winning the resulting by-election. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlRSjIMxK9Q
Mr. G, saw some videos recently (some history, some contemporary) regarding land China historically considers its own but within Russia's present borders. That, and desires for resources, could make for interesting times.
Irredentism is such fun, isn't it?
I did say at the start that one reason Putin was fighting with one hand behind his back was the need to shore up Russia's Far East. Russia is just too big for instant force mobilisation.
I noticed the other day reports of lots of Army funerals in the Vladivostok area. There are also reports of Ukrainian ‘orphans’ being ‘rehomed’ there.
Dan Wootton in the Daily Mail has the oddest take on yesterdays proceedings I have seen so far. A deranged Witch Hunt. I seriously doubt any but the most ardent Johnson fans believe this to be the case.
It's clear the Committee is out to get Bojo one way or another....whether he deseves it based on the submissions i don't know...Not sure impartiality comes into it judging from hectoring tones of those questioning him yesterday.
The committee has an agenda but the notion that Boris is a victim of a witch trial here is just wrong.
He has lied to and misled parliament.
I do not, personally, care about the so-called parties and he has been fined for that.
I do care about honesty and integrity in politics. He has to account for that.
It’s 2025! and we are washing up, with benefit of hindsight, what happened in 2024 election and why. What did we miss?
Did the 1992 scenario repeated in 2024 simply boil down to Tory’s having a lot more money to spend on it than Labour?
When do you actually start general election campaign expenditure, and campaigning - about six weeks to go?
From early 2023 the Tories were clearly up and running with the stronger election unit - aggressive, busy, working effectively together with mainstream media, getting results, whilst Labour’s was non existent until the bill boards appeared about five weeks to go, followed by the now “notorious” mass balloon release.
So it wasn’t how clever for Tories to sack, disown and politically bury Boris, to already give the voters a government change before the election what won it, as much as it now appears it utterly negated Labours “time for change” campaign - that Sunak was thought of on election day as The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. The poor. Hope. whilst Starmer and Labour thought of as Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, was actually perceptions engineered, fake and created, cultivated over a long period of time, spending lots of money on it.
And we should have realised this in advance, from those early 2023 heat maps. 🤷♀️
I don't think Starmer will be releasing any balloons until the votes are in and counted.
Dan Wootton in the Daily Mail has the oddest take on yesterdays proceedings I have seen so far. A deranged Witch Hunt. I seriously doubt any but the most ardent Johnson fans believe this to be the case.
He would have a point about this kangeroo court led by "Labour’s Boris hater-in-chief Harriet Harman" if it was not for the observable reality that the chief Boris hater on the panel is Sir Bernard Jenkin...
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Of course - what would a Labour government actually stand for? What is the vision?
OK so they will be more humane and less corrupt and incompetent. Those are worth having. But its hardly a transformational vision for the future.
There was much debate (to the point it started to become quite farcical) before the 2010 election as to whether or not Cameron had “sealed the deal” with the electorate. I remember this being talked about a lot on here. There were many who took the view that with the sort of poll leads he was registering there was no chance of anything other than a decent Tory majority in 2010. Others were cautioning swing back and the potential for a campaign to expose weaknesses in the Tory position.
As it turned out the latter position was the correct one. Cameron hadn’t sealed the deal. He’d done enough to get the Tories into pole position but without the enthusiasm to sweep them into power with a majority. The Labour campaign had been effective at highlighting peoples concerns about the Tories taking away benefits and support, and the Cleggasm had diverted attention away from the “time for a change” Tory narrative to a Lib Dem change instead. But Labour were too clapped out to salvage a minority or coalition government of their own.
There are interesting parallels as we sit here in 2023. Starmer has a commanding position in the polls, but has he, unlike Cameron, “sealed the deal”? I’m not convinced he has yet. The big question will be whether he can before the GE campaign, and also whether the Tories are now so toxic that he might eke out a majority by default.
What does "seal the deal" mean and how will we know when Starmer has done it? - apart from the obvious of winning the election.
Well this is the issue - it’s a nebulous concept. But I think we’re essentially looking for a degree of enthusiasm for a Labour government led by Starmer, beyond a simple “aren’t the Tories useless”? feeling.
I play Victoria 2 (from Paradox) and am always reminded that at the start of the 1836 scenario, China controls all the (now) Russian Far East.
Of course, a neighbouring ally of Russia wouldn't take advantage of their current problems to grab that region would they. After all, we don't do that sort of thing in the 21st Century.
Oh, what am I saying, it's China. Of course they would.
Dan Wootton in the Daily Mail has the oddest take on yesterdays proceedings I have seen so far. A deranged Witch Hunt. I seriously doubt any but the most ardent Johnson fans believe this to be the case.
It's clear the Committee is out to get Bojo one way or another....whether he deseves it based on the submissions i don't know...Not sure impartiality comes into it judging from hectoring tones of those questioning him yesterday.
The committee has an agenda but the notion that Boris is a victim of a witch trial here is just wrong.
He has lied to and misled parliament.
I do not, personally, care about the so-called parties and he has been fined for that.
I do care about honesty and integrity in politics. He has to account for that.
I see you have pre judged the outcome. In Britain we are innocent until the Court... ....in this case the Committe on Standards and Privileges..says otherwise. I think Boris will receive his judgement in due course but the hectoring tones that I heard suggested to me that a fair hearing might not be possible.......
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
I've never been, but am I right in the US all prices are ex-tax - I'm not even sure if they're allowed to advertise a price inclusive of tax? Once you add in the inevitable 25% tip in certain restaurants, the real price can be a lot higher than initally advertised.
A friend went and said, "Everything is priced so cheap, but when I went to pay, it was double what it was shown as."
Dan Wootton in the Daily Mail has the oddest take on yesterdays proceedings I have seen so far. A deranged Witch Hunt. I seriously doubt any but the most ardent Johnson fans believe this to be the case.
It's clear the Committee is out to get Bojo one way or another....whether he deseves it based on the submissions i don't know...Not sure impartiality comes into it judging from hectoring tones of those questioning him yesterday.
The committee has an agenda but the notion that Boris is a victim of a witch trial here is just wrong.
He has lied to and misled parliament.
I do not, personally, care about the so-called parties and he has been fined for that.
I do care about honesty and integrity in politics. He has to account for that.
Thing is, I think he doesn't believe he lied. He was clearly fully aware of what had gone on, he had been at a lot of the events. He did not think that they broke the rules (that much). I suspect, as someone else said on PB at the time, that he is such a rule breaker that he assumed 'everyone' would break the rules as he did. It would be inconceivable to him that people would obey strictly.
And so on his terms, he does not believe he lied to parliament.
Everyone else thinks what was going on was so obviously against the rules that an idiot would know that. And so he needs punishing, but he will feel it is punishment for the wrong thing. An to some extent he would be correct.
Dan Wootton in the Daily Mail has the oddest take on yesterdays proceedings I have seen so far. A deranged Witch Hunt. I seriously doubt any but the most ardent Johnson fans believe this to be the case.
It's clear the Committee is out to get Bojo one way or another....whether he deseves it based on the submissions i don't know...Not sure impartiality comes into it judging from hectoring tones of those questioning him yesterday.
The committee has an agenda but the notion that Boris is a victim of a witch trial here is just wrong.
He has lied to and misled parliament.
I do not, personally, care about the so-called parties and he has been fined for that.
I do care about honesty and integrity in politics. He has to account for that.
I see you have pre judged the outcome. In Britain we are innocent until the Court... ....in this case the Committe on Standards and Privileges..says otherwise. I think Boris will receive his judgement in due course but the hectoring tones that I heard suggested to me that a fair hearing might not be possible.......
I have not prejudged the outcome. I have made a view on the evidence presented and not said what the punishment should be only he should account for it. I do not know what the outcome is.
Also it is not something I have commented on before, unlike others here, as I wanted to hear the questioning before making up my mind.
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
I've never been, but am I right in the US all prices are ex-tax - I'm not even sure if they're allowed to advertise a price inclusive of tax? Once you add in the inevitable 25% tip in certain restaurants, the real price can be a lot higher than initally advertised.
A friend went and said, "Everything is priced so cheap, but when I went to pay, it was double what it was shown as."
Threw me several time. A two dollar ninety-nine breakfast turned out to over five, with assorted taxes and tips.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
I've wanted for a while to write a piece on tribal voting. You know, those people who vote for the same old party irrespective? But:
1. I've not the time. 2. I'd want to do some research on the subject, but I've never seen anything about tribal voting ever. I presume no one actually asks a voter, "Look, we all know you're a thick ignorant idiot but you do vote. Do you really think about your vote, or do you simply vote for who you voted for last time/who your parents told you to vote for without putting any thought into the matter?" and therefore true 'data' on tribal voting is quite rare.
The Conservatives are going to lose votes and seats, but I still wonder if a slender majority for them is completely out the question.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party, except on General Election day.
There was much debate (to the point it started to become quite farcical) before the 2010 election as to whether or not Cameron had “sealed the deal” with the electorate. I remember this being talked about a lot on here. There were many who took the view that with the sort of poll leads he was registering there was no chance of anything other than a decent Tory majority in 2010. Others were cautioning swing back and the potential for a campaign to expose weaknesses in the Tory position.
As it turned out the latter position was the correct one. Cameron hadn’t sealed the deal. He’d done enough to get the Tories into pole position but without the enthusiasm to sweep them into power with a majority. The Labour campaign had been effective at highlighting peoples concerns about the Tories taking away benefits and support, and the Cleggasm had diverted attention away from the “time for a change” Tory narrative to a Lib Dem change instead. But Labour were too clapped out to salvage a minority or coalition government of their own.
There are interesting parallels as we sit here in 2023. Starmer has a commanding position in the polls, but has he, unlike Cameron, “sealed the deal”? I’m not convinced he has yet. The big question will be whether he can before the GE campaign, and also whether the Tories are now so toxic that he might eke out a majority by default.
What does "seal the deal" mean and how will we know when Starmer has done it? - apart from the obvious of winning the election.
I think its just that - winning the election will tell us. I don't think the nation is out there hanging on every word Starmer says. Many are sick of the Tories, ready for change and he happens to lead the best option for that change, but he isn't achieving a Blair style connection yet.
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
If the vat-inclusive total of all vatable items is given at the bottom of the receipt, as it often is, you can write a short program to generate all combinations of item prices, calculate their sum and in possibly 90% of cases there will only be one combination of items which sums to the correct amount: you have then identified the vatable items.
Mr. Valiant, pretty sure that's not available for consoles, but how are you finding Victoria 2?
Victoria 2? Or Victoria 3 (the new game)?
I've not played Vicky 3 at all, so can't comment. I really like Vicky 2, but you do need some mods though the base game + all the DLC is perfectly playable.
I'm not very good at it, so I tend to play on Very Easy and even then I don't do very well.
But it's a sublime game. Yes, it's called a Spreadsheet simulator for a reason, but a lot of fun can be had, especially if you play as a Great Power, or a Secondary looking for greatness.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
I think that's fair comment. Labour party policy, while far from non-existent, remains a bit nebulous if considered as a program for government. That can't stay the case all the way to the next election if Starmer aspires to govern effectively.,
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
If the vat-inclusive total of all vatable items is given at the bottom of the receipt, as it often is, you can write a short program to generate all combinations of item prices, calculate their sum and in possibly 90% of cases there will only be one combination of items which sums to the correct amount: you have then identified the vatable items.
It’s 2025! and we are washing up, with benefit of hindsight, what happened in 2024 election and why. What did we miss?
Did the 1992 scenario repeated in 2024 simply boil down to Tory’s having a lot more money to spend on it than Labour?
When do you actually start general election campaign expenditure, and campaigning - about six weeks to go?
From early 2023 the Tories were clearly up and running with the stronger election unit - aggressive, busy, working effectively together with mainstream media, getting results, whilst Labour’s was non existent until the bill boards appeared about five weeks to go, followed by the now “notorious” mass balloon release.
So it wasn’t how clever for Tories to sack, disown and politically bury Boris, to already give the voters a government change before the election what won it, as much as it now appears it utterly negated Labours “time for change” campaign - that Sunak was thought of on election day as The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. The poor. Hope. whilst Starmer and Labour thought of as Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, was actually perceptions engineered, fake and created, cultivated over a long period of time, spending lots of money on it.
And we should have realised this in advance, from those early 2023 heat maps. 🤷♀️
You appear not to realise that the frequency of the responses is related to the size of print. If you did you would have drawn the opposite conclusions.
And yes, there are people who think Starmer is woke and will be terrible. The Mail sells three quarters of a million copies a day. Similarly, there are people who believe Sunak is great. But from those word clouds, they're a minority.
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
Most supermarkets, too.
No, Sainsbury and Tesco use * to distinguish vattable items. Aldi use A and B
Ah, yes, checking some that I have to hand I see that you are right.
However the till reciepts don't give an ex-VAT total, a VAT total and VAT-inclusive total so my understanding was that they don't count as VAT receipts for business purposes, which might be what I was thinking of. Did that actually change?
It’s 2025! and we are washing up, with benefit of hindsight, what happened in 2024 election and why. What did we miss?
Did the 1992 scenario repeated in 2024 simply boil down to Tory’s having a lot more money to spend on it than Labour?
When do you actually start general election campaign expenditure, and campaigning - about six weeks to go?
From early 2023 the Tories were clearly up and running with the stronger election unit - aggressive, busy, working effectively together with mainstream media, getting results, whilst Labour’s was non existent until the bill boards appeared about five weeks to go, followed by the now “notorious” mass balloon release.
So it wasn’t how clever for Tories to sack, disown and politically bury Boris, to already give the voters a government change before the election what won it, as much as it now appears it utterly negated Labours “time for change” campaign - that Sunak was thought of on election day as The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. The poor. Hope. whilst Starmer and Labour thought of as Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, was actually perceptions engineered, fake and created, cultivated over a long period of time, spending lots of money on it.
And we should have realised this in advance, from those early 2023 heat maps. 🤷♀️
You appear not to realise that the frequency of the responses is related to the size of print. If you did you would have drawn the opposite conclusions.
No desire to pile on, and of course they hardly determine the outcome of the next election already, but this is one where MoonRabbit is indeed absolutely wrong.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
I think that's fair comment. Labour party policy, while far from non-existent, remains a bit nebulous if considered as a program for government. That can't stay the case all the way to the next election if Starmer aspires to govern effectively.,
Exactly so, and this leads to the next question: does he (and his party) care? If Labour posters here are representative of Labour activists generally, then I'm not at all sure they do - all they seem to care about is winning the election, with little if any thought apparently given to what happens next.
Short vid which looks like Rangers being violent maybe, but not enough coverage to judge well. Reported in the Mirror and the Mail.
The feature that grabbed by attention was BID (Business Improvement District) Rangers who are street wardens (Security Industry staff) employed by groups in partnership with the local, who have no more than normal powers of Citizens Arrest, and who seem to be all over the leafy South. I had never heard of them.
Kirsty Buchanan OBE is a former SPAD who has worked with both Ian Austin and Liz Truss, so somewhat influential / connected.
One to watch, perhaps.
The police statement in the comments is pretty clear.
Reports of a group of teenagers causing trouble. Shop worker complained of being assaulted.
Two individuals were arrested pending further inquiries.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
I think that's fair comment. Labour party policy, while far from non-existent, remains a bit nebulous if considered as a program for government. That can't stay the case all the way to the next election if Starmer aspires to govern effectively.,
Exactly so, and this leads to the next question: does he (and his party) care? If Labour posters here are representative of Labour activists generally, then I'm not at all sure they do - all they seem to care about is winning the election, with little if any thought apparently given to what happens next.
Break: The TheBMA announce a new junior doctors strike. A 96-hour walkout will take place for shifts starting between 06:59 on Tuesday 11 April and 06:59 on Saturday 15 April 2023.
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
Most supermarkets, too.
No, Sainsbury and Tesco use * to distinguish vattable items. Aldi use A and B
Ah, yes, checking some that I have to hand I see that you are right.
However the till reciepts don't give an ex-VAT total, a VAT total and VAT-inclusive total so my understanding was that they don't count as VAT receipts for business purposes, which might be what I was thinking of. Did that actually change?
My understanding is that as long as the VAT number is on a receipt then the receipt is well a VAT receipt.
Short vid which looks like Rangers being violent maybe, but not enough coverage to judge well. Reported in the Mirror and the Mail.
The feature that grabbed by attention was BID (Business Improvement District) Rangers who are street wardens (Security Industry staff) employed by groups in partnership with the local, who have no more than normal powers of Citizens Arrest, and who seem to be all over the leafy South. I had never heard of them.
Kirsty Buchanan OBE is a former SPAD who has worked with both Ian Austin and Liz Truss, so somewhat influential / connected.
One to watch, perhaps.
The police statement in the comments is pretty clear.
Reports of a group of teenagers causing trouble. Shop worker complained of being assaulted.
Two individuals were arrested pending further inquiries.
She must be very confident that there isn't any CCTV showing her son assaulting a shop worker to tweet as she did.
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
Most supermarkets, too.
No, Sainsbury and Tesco use * to distinguish vattable items. Aldi use A and B
Ah, yes, checking some that I have to hand I see that you are right.
However the till reciepts don't give an ex-VAT total, a VAT total and VAT-inclusive total so my understanding was that they don't count as VAT receipts for business purposes, which might be what I was thinking of. Did that actually change?
My understanding is that as long as the VAT number is on a receipt then the receipt is well a VAT receipt.
Looking into it further, I see the requirement for separate totals is only for receipts over £250.
Looking at the till receipts I have, Sainsbury's and Tesco have the VAT number but Asda doesn't.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
I think that's fair comment. Labour party policy, while far from non-existent, remains a bit nebulous if considered as a program for government. That can't stay the case all the way to the next election if Starmer aspires to govern effectively.,
All PBers will want to know what Labour will do if in government. That's the nature both of politics anoraks and of people who bet on political future contingents.
That's a small group among the general public.
I predict that SKS in the manifesto will give maximal wriggle room, minimal concrete undertakings apart from a few retail offers, will push all difficult issues either into oblivion or into 'full scale options review once in government' mode.
He will major on: Integrity; Competence; Justice and Fairness. He will generalise on the NHS. He will not major on: Eliminating debt or deficit. He will make no meaningful undertakings on the EU or refugees but will still say something.
The Tories have gifted him the opportunity to focus on the abstract nouns of decency. He should use it ruthlessly.
It’s 2025! and we are washing up, with benefit of hindsight, what happened in 2024 election and why. What did we miss?
Did the 1992 scenario repeated in 2024 simply boil down to Tory’s having a lot more money to spend on it than Labour?
When do you actually start general election campaign expenditure, and campaigning - about six weeks to go?
From early 2023 the Tories were clearly up and running with the stronger election unit - aggressive, busy, working effectively together with mainstream media, getting results, whilst Labour’s was non existent until the bill boards appeared about five weeks to go, followed by the now “notorious” mass balloon release.
So it wasn’t how clever for Tories to sack, disown and politically bury Boris, to already give the voters a government change before the election what won it, as much as it now appears it utterly negated Labours “time for change” campaign - that Sunak was thought of on election day as The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. The poor. Hope. whilst Starmer and Labour thought of as Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, was actually perceptions engineered, fake and created, cultivated over a long period of time, spending lots of money on it.
And we should have realised this in advance, from those early 2023 heat maps. 🤷♀️
I don't think Starmer will be releasing any balloons until the votes are in and counted.
Not listening are you?
You know this period in hindsight, still thinking there’s a big lead so nothing to worry about, ignoring all the signs this is changing, so do nothing but faff about with balloons, you know this period in insight is when the Tories were winning the election?
Short vid which looks like Rangers being violent maybe, but not enough coverage to judge well. Reported in the Mirror and the Mail.
The feature that grabbed by attention was BID (Business Improvement District) Rangers who are street wardens (Security Industry staff) employed by groups in partnership with the local, who have no more than normal powers of Citizens Arrest, and who seem to be all over the leafy South. I had never heard of them.
Kirsty Buchanan OBE is a former SPAD who has worked with both Ian Austin and Liz Truss, so somewhat influential / connected.
One to watch, perhaps.
The police statement in the comments is pretty clear.
Reports of a group of teenagers causing trouble. Shop worker complained of being assaulted.
Two individuals were arrested pending further inquiries.
She must be very confident that there isn't any CCTV showing her son assaulting a shop worker to tweet as she did.
Come on she's appealing to the court of tw@tter. Where very 15 yr old boy has the morals of St Francis and anyone in any sort of position of perceived authority - either the police or those acting as good as the police are clearly the devil themselves.
Mr. G, saw some videos recently (some history, some contemporary) regarding land China historically considers its own but within Russia's present borders. That, and desires for resources, could make for interesting times.
Irredentism is such fun, isn't it?
I did say at the start that one reason Putin was fighting with one hand behind his back was the need to shore up Russia's Far East. Russia is just too big for instant force mobilisation.
I noticed the other day reports of lots of Army funerals in the Vladivostok area. There are also reports of Ukrainian ‘orphans’ being ‘rehomed’ there.
Don’t start me on the Ukranian “orphans”. That’s a war crime, plain and simple, and one of the reasons for Putin’s indictment. He should be “rehomed” to The Hague.
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
Most supermarkets, too.
No, Sainsbury and Tesco use * to distinguish vattable items. Aldi use A and B
Ah, yes, checking some that I have to hand I see that you are right.
However the till reciepts don't give an ex-VAT total, a VAT total and VAT-inclusive total so my understanding was that they don't count as VAT receipts for business purposes, which might be what I was thinking of. Did that actually change?
Just put it through. If you get a VAT inspection (you won't - they're as rare as hens teeth these days) I'd like to hope no HMRC jobsworth is going to try and deny recovery based on that.........
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
Mr. G, saw some videos recently (some history, some contemporary) regarding land China historically considers its own but within Russia's present borders. That, and desires for resources, could make for interesting times.
Irredentism is such fun, isn't it?
I did say at the start that one reason Putin was fighting with one hand behind his back was the need to shore up Russia's Far East. Russia is just too big for instant force mobilisation.
I noticed the other day reports of lots of Army funerals in the Vladivostok area. There are also reports of Ukrainian ‘orphans’ being ‘rehomed’ there.
Don’t start me on the Ukranian “orphans”. That’s a war crime, plain and simple, and one of the reasons for Putin’s indictment. He should be “rehomed” to The Hague.
Mr. G, saw some videos recently (some history, some contemporary) regarding land China historically considers its own but within Russia's present borders. That, and desires for resources, could make for interesting times.
Irredentism is such fun, isn't it?
I did say at the start that one reason Putin was fighting with one hand behind his back was the need to shore up Russia's Far East. Russia is just too big for instant force mobilisation.
I noticed the other day reports of lots of Army funerals in the Vladivostok area. There are also reports of Ukrainian ‘orphans’ being ‘rehomed’ there.
Don’t start me on the Ukranian “orphans”. That’s a war crime, plain and simple, and one of the reasons for Putin’s indictment. He should be “rehomed” to The Hague.
Staying with the Victoria 2 theme, if Xi can take advantage of Russia's fall from 'Secondary Power' to merely 'Civilised Nation' [1] to puppet Russia, then he will.
Russia absolutely does not have a friend in China. It's only Putin being delusional (again) that thinks they are.
[1] Or Great Power to Secondary Power if you think Russia was a Great Power. Fortunately, either way, only Great Powers can't be puppeted in Victoria 2, and Russia isn't a Great Power anymore. ((And the less said about Uncivilised Nation the better - I'd never suggest Russia's actions in Ukraine mean it is Uncivilised........))
Pet hates - UK retailers that give no indication as to VAT status of their items on receipts.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
Most supermarkets, too.
No, Sainsbury and Tesco use * to distinguish vattable items. Aldi use A and B
Ah, yes, checking some that I have to hand I see that you are right.
However the till reciepts don't give an ex-VAT total, a VAT total and VAT-inclusive total so my understanding was that they don't count as VAT receipts for business purposes, which might be what I was thinking of. Did that actually change?
Just put it through. If you get a VAT inspection (you won't - they're as rare as hens teeth these days) I'd like to hope no HMRC jobsworth is going to try and deny recovery based on that.........
We get them about every 5 years because every single return is a reclaim for us (All UK supply, all export customers).
The travel expenses element is tiny, but it's just bloody annoying having no breakdown on a receipt or at least something I know if I should divide by 6 with.
Utah Rep. Burgess Owens — who has filed for bankruptcy protection five times — is against President Biden's student loan forgiveness program, saying, "debt cannot be canceled." https://twitter.com/sltrib/status/1638166066022031361
Short vid which looks like Rangers being violent maybe, but not enough coverage to judge well. Reported in the Mirror and the Mail.
The feature that grabbed by attention was BID (Business Improvement District) Rangers who are street wardens (Security Industry staff) employed by groups in partnership with the local, who have no more than normal powers of Citizens Arrest, and who seem to be all over the leafy South. I had never heard of them.
Kirsty Buchanan OBE is a former SPAD who has worked with both Ian Austin and Liz Truss, so somewhat influential / connected.
One to watch, perhaps.
The police statement in the comments is pretty clear.
Reports of a group of teenagers causing trouble. Shop worker complained of being assaulted.
Two individuals were arrested pending further inquiries.
She must be very confident that there isn't any CCTV showing her son assaulting a shop worker to tweet as she did.
An interesting (to me) finding there is only a minority of trans people identify as one particular gender. Eg just 12% as trans men and 22% as trans women - the category that just about all of the debate here gets focussed on. Also striking how there's a wide and level spectrum on to what extent trans people present to society as a gender different to that at birth. It's very often not a binary all-or-nothing situation. This sort of real life complexity rarely gets a look-in when the topic is discussed. It's extremely poorly served imo.
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
I think that's fair comment. Labour party policy, while far from non-existent, remains a bit nebulous if considered as a program for government. That can't stay the case all the way to the next election if Starmer aspires to govern effectively.,
Exactly so, and this leads to the next question: does he (and his party) care? If Labour posters here are representative of Labour activists generally, then I'm not at all sure they do - all they seem to care about is winning the election, with little if any thought apparently given to what happens next.
I'm on the left so naturally want some equality promotion, wealth tax, more foreign aid, etc., but even I don't really want to churn it out 18 months ahead of the election. Nebulous is fine for now.
This is a simple and excellent idea which the UK should adopt forthwith. (The US Supreme Court will probably rule it unconstitutional...)
1. @FTC is proposing a rule to ban deceptive business tactics designed to trick or trap consumers into paying for unwanted subscriptions. The proposal would mandate “click to cancel,” requiring firms to make it as easy to cancel as they make it to sign up. https://twitter.com/linakhanFTC/status/1638885955561205761
In some ways what's more telling is "the dog that didn't bark". Johnson not even mentioned on the front page of the Sun. Meanwhile the damage done to the Conservative brand is still very much present:
I've snipped the pictures but it's interesting that the two main take aways from this for each party aren't simply 'Conservatives bad, Labour good'.
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'. And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
Yeah, I agree with that. It's why I've been saying for months that Sir Keir needs to either get his programme into his manifesto (preferably having trailed it for up to a couple of years) or win a landslide. Winning a small majority with the public in "meh" mode won't make it easy to get through anything that isn't in the manifesto.
I've wanted for a while to write a piece on tribal voting. You know, those people who vote for the same old party irrespective? But:
1. I've not the time. 2. I'd want to do some research on the subject, but I've never seen anything about tribal voting ever. I presume no one actually asks a voter, "Look, we all know you're a thick ignorant idiot but you do vote. Do you really think about your vote, or do you simply vote for who you voted for last time/who your parents told you to vote for without putting any thought into the matter?" and therefore true 'data' on tribal voting is quite rare.
The Conservatives are going to lose votes and seats, but I still wonder if a slender majority for them is completely out the question.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party, except on General Election day.
You have to be FAIRLY interested in politics to be a floating voter. If you're VERY interested you probably have a clear preference and become pretty tribal. If you only give a modest toss, you vote each time - if you vote at all - for the same team.
Hereditary allegiance is rare nowadays - witness the continuing Tory edge among the elderly and the near-monolithic Labour vote in the 18-21 range. Do parents often get worked about it, I wonder? My Tory parents were ultra-tolerant of my communist sympathies - even bought me Land og Folk, the Danish party paper - which made me in turn more tolerant when I grew up. Are there parents who shout "stupid child, you can't vote like that!"?
Comments
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/mar/23/met-police-uk-radical-alternatives-policing
43 and 49 are both within MOE of 46. You can't do that for 20 and 35.
Does anyone know if the Opinium polls last night used their Patent Swingback Anticipator? A lot of the better Conservative polls push the "moan but will vote" Conservative inclined voters into the blue column. Anticipating more swingback on top of that looks a bit like the sort of double counting that gets banks into so much trouble.
When the electorate is so clearly in flux, it is to be expected that results will show more variation than usual, as the stratification that all companies use within the sampling is less likely to lead to predictable outcomes. However, a 13% variation in one direction over a week is ridiculous. A 7% variation in the opposite direction is less obviously so.
At the other extreme, the most stable polling is more likely to come from companies which impute current voting patterns based on past behaviour rather than current answers i.e. those which assume that some "don't knows" will eventually vote as before. But that also raises a whole series of questions about what the poll is actually measuring, and whether the methodology could properly capture a major shift in opinion.
I think Italian pollsters will need to start looking at a spiral of silence adjustment if this continues because Meloni strikes me as someone who is going to be around as PM for a pretty long time. She is Italy's Mrs Thatcher by all accounts and the more the Italian media push the narrative that she's taking Italy back to fascism the more support I think she'll get because it's blatantly not true.
But on the other hand - and this is just gut feel really - a lot of tory *voters* (as opposed to the insane cabal that is their membership) will feel that Rishi is a decent sort, and they haven't been hit too hard financially so while Spaffer or Truss were too disgusting/stupid/embarassing/etc, Sunak gives less pause for thought in the voting booth. That his polling is outperforming his party is I think a little actual evidence of this.
As in, is there a point where buying will be very likely cheap.
Other places in the US are starting to do this and tying it to reparations for slavery. Evanston in Illinois, for example, raises taxes ring fenced to help black communities.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64965277 on the SF proposal.
Outside of the few big ones, as HY explained, Labour look by far the worst heat map. What does Starmer stand for? Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, The Rich. The biggest one, DON’T KNOW is pretty awful alone for a party desperately trying to avoid a 1992 scenario all over again.
Outside the biggest one, Tory’s then have little bad but a whole load of very good voter thoughts.
“What does Rishi Sunak stand for?”
Healthcare. The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. Power. The poor. Hope.
The Labour one is definitely worse to me. Rather worryingly - nay very worrying for anyone hoping for a change of government 😒
Whatever you think of her she has defied the current shift to social democracy in most of the West Post Covid
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/dan-wootton-westminster-s-crooked-kangaroo-court-tried-its-hardest-but-failed/ar-AA18Xi30?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=a92b02a74d454a23b5eb53057713792b&ei=29
Few politicians have seen their reputation collapse so completely so quickly as Nicola Sturgeon. There is a very good reason for this - behind her endless rhetoric her real legacy was failure.
http://robinmcalpine.org/the-sturgeon-era-control-paranoia-and-vanity/
he deseves it based on the submissions i don't know...Not sure impartiality comes into it judging from hectoring tones of those questioning him yesterday.
https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1638575923380338688
Reminiscent of France and Alsace-Lorraine.
The Labour one is definitely worse 😒
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Did the 1992 scenario repeated in 2024 simply boil down to Tory’s having a lot more money to spend on it than Labour?
When do you actually start general election campaign expenditure, and campaigning - about six weeks to go?
From early 2023 the Tories were clearly up and running with the stronger election unit - aggressive, busy, working effectively together with mainstream media, getting results, whilst Labour’s was non existent until the bill boards appeared about five weeks to go, followed by the now “notorious” mass balloon release.
So it wasn’t how clever for Tories to sack, disown and politically bury Boris, to already give the voters a government change before the election what won it, as much as it now appears it utterly negated Labours “time for change” campaign - that Sunak was thought of on election day as The NHS. The economy. Stability. Fairness, equality, good, honesty. Reducing immigration. Lower taxes. Helping the country/people. A better Britain. The poor. Hope. whilst Starmer and Labour thought of as Wokeness, higher taxes, Dishonesty, Chaos, Disaster, greed, Bad Money, was actually perceptions engineered, fake and created, cultivated over a long period of time, spending lots of money on it.
And we should have realised this in advance, from those early 2023 heat maps. 🤷♀️
The two stand outs for the Cons are 'Rich' and 'Don't know'.
And whilst Labour is 'Helping Britain' the other stand out is also 'Don't know'.
If Labour win, it'll be more of a 'mewh, time to let the other lot mess things up for a bit' sort of vote rather than any genuine desire for a Labour government.
As it turned out the latter position was the correct one. Cameron hadn’t sealed the deal. He’d done enough to get the Tories into pole position but without the enthusiasm to sweep them into power with a majority. The Labour campaign had been effective at highlighting peoples concerns about the Tories taking away benefits and support, and the Cleggasm had diverted attention away from the “time for a change” Tory narrative to a Lib Dem change instead. But Labour were too clapped out to salvage a minority or coalition government of their own.
There are interesting parallels as we sit here in 2023. Starmer has a commanding position in the polls, but has he, unlike Cameron, “sealed the deal”? I’m not convinced he has yet. The big question will be whether he can before the GE campaign, and also whether the Tories are now so toxic that he might eke out a majority by default.
They will not at this stage be spooked by the large "Don't know" and somewhat smaller "nothing" responses for Starmer, and in any case those are rather surprisingly for a LOTO no larger than those for Sunak - a PM and former Chancellor who has by now had several years in high office to define his values through the implementation of his policies. For Labour, the "don't know" and smaller "nothing" responses will shrink in the run up to the general election campaign, especially in the final 6 weeks of the campaign proper, as the party's offer is defined clearly. Remember 2017, when Labour's focus on policy closed the polling gap?
What is important for Labour is that all the other key messages in large print are positive ones that Labour would want to see: i.e. Helping the country/people, fairness/equality, change, good, honesty (bigger than "dishonesty"), A better Britain. The fact that "healthcare/the NHS" is not larger is a bit surprising but it is no bad thing if people are associating Starmer with values rather than a specific policy area. You need a magnifying class to see poor ones such as "wokeness".
Just as importantly for Labour, Sunak's responses are nearly all awful ones. The big print responses apart from "Don't know" include: The rich, Corruption/greed, Dishonesty ("honesty" is tiny), Themselves. "The Economy" is more a reflection of his background as Chancellor but can be interpreted both ways. "Helping the country/people", "Fairness/equality" and "A better Britain" are there but in far smaller print than the print accorded to Starmer.
Offenders: M&S ; Sports Direct.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlRSjIMxK9Q
He has lied to and misled parliament.
I do not, personally, care about the so-called parties and he has been fined for that.
I do care about honesty and integrity in politics. He has to account for that.
OK so they will be more humane and less corrupt and incompetent. Those are worth having. But its hardly a transformational vision for the future.
Of course, a neighbouring ally of Russia wouldn't take advantage of their current problems to grab that region would they. After all, we don't do that sort of thing in the 21st Century.
Oh, what am I saying, it's China. Of course they would.
Once you add in the inevitable 25% tip in certain restaurants, the real price can be a lot higher than initally advertised.
A friend went and said, "Everything is priced so cheap, but when I went to pay, it was double what it was shown as."
And so on his terms, he does not believe he lied to parliament.
Everyone else thinks what was going on was so obviously against the rules that an idiot would know that. And so he needs punishing, but he will feel it is punishment for the wrong thing. An to some extent he would be correct.
Also it is not something I have commented on before, unlike others here, as I wanted to hear the questioning before making up my mind.
1. I've not the time.
2. I'd want to do some research on the subject, but I've never seen anything about tribal voting ever. I presume no one actually asks a voter, "Look, we all know you're a thick ignorant idiot but you do vote. Do you really think about your vote, or do you simply vote for who you voted for last time/who your parents told you to vote for without putting any thought into the matter?"
and therefore true 'data' on tribal voting is quite rare.
The Conservatives are going to lose votes and seats, but I still wonder if a slender majority for them is completely out the question.
In Bootle, everyone hates the Labour party, except on General Election day.
I've not played Vicky 3 at all, so can't comment.
I really like Vicky 2, but you do need some mods though the base game + all the DLC is perfectly playable.
I'm not very good at it, so I tend to play on Very Easy and even then I don't do very well.
But it's a sublime game. Yes, it's called a Spreadsheet simulator for a reason, but a lot of fun can be had, especially if you play as a Great Power, or a Secondary looking for greatness.
Labour party policy, while far from non-existent, remains a bit nebulous if considered as a program for government. That can't stay the case all the way to the next election if Starmer aspires to govern effectively.,
Aldi use A and B
However the till reciepts don't give an ex-VAT total, a VAT total and VAT-inclusive total so my understanding was that they don't count as VAT receipts for business purposes, which might be what I was thinking of. Did that actually change?
Reports of a group of teenagers causing trouble. Shop worker complained of being assaulted.
Two individuals were arrested pending further inquiries.
If I committed fraud and theft the FCA would take a very dim view and likely would kick me off the register permanently
Break: The TheBMA announce a new junior doctors strike. A 96-hour walkout will take place for shifts starting between 06:59 on Tuesday 11 April and 06:59 on Saturday 15 April 2023.
https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1638867893571170307
Yikes that's about 200k appointments cancelled. Sunak's going to struggle to meet his waiting list pledge at this rate.
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1638868499316760577
Relativity Space got past Max-Q and to staging, second stage failed - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzA0lIwh19c
The Washington Post and KFF surveyed one of the largest randomized samples of U.S. transgender adults to date about their childhoods, feelings and lives
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/03/23/transgender-adults-transitioning-poll/
Looking at the till receipts I have, Sainsbury's and Tesco have the VAT number but Asda doesn't.
That's a small group among the general public.
I predict that SKS in the manifesto will give maximal wriggle room, minimal concrete undertakings apart from a few retail offers, will push all difficult issues either into oblivion or into 'full scale options review once in government' mode.
He will major on: Integrity; Competence; Justice and Fairness.
He will generalise on the NHS.
He will not major on: Eliminating debt or deficit.
He will make no meaningful undertakings on the EU or refugees but will still say something.
The Tories have gifted him the opportunity to focus on the abstract nouns of decency. He should use it ruthlessly.
You know this period in hindsight, still thinking there’s a big lead so nothing to worry about, ignoring all the signs this is changing, so do nothing but faff about with balloons, you know this period in insight is when the Tories were winning the election?
If you get a VAT inspection (you won't - they're as rare as hens teeth these days) I'd like to hope no HMRC jobsworth is going to try and deny recovery based on that.........
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/22/xi-putin-russia-china-pipeline/
Russia absolutely does not have a friend in China. It's only Putin being delusional (again) that thinks they are.
[1] Or Great Power to Secondary Power if you think Russia was a Great Power. Fortunately, either way, only Great Powers can't be puppeted in Victoria 2, and Russia isn't a Great Power anymore. ((And the less said about Uncivilised Nation the better - I'd never suggest Russia's actions in Ukraine mean it is Uncivilised........))
The travel expenses element is tiny, but it's just bloody annoying having no breakdown on a receipt or at least something I know if I should divide by 6 with.
https://twitter.com/sltrib/status/1638166066022031361
(The US Supreme Court will probably rule it unconstitutional...)
1. @FTC is proposing a rule to ban deceptive business tactics designed to trick or trap consumers into paying for unwanted subscriptions. The proposal would mandate “click to cancel,” requiring firms to make it as easy to cancel as they make it to sign up.
https://twitter.com/linakhanFTC/status/1638885955561205761
Hereditary allegiance is rare nowadays - witness the continuing Tory edge among the elderly and the near-monolithic Labour vote in the 18-21 range. Do parents often get worked about it, I wonder? My Tory parents were ultra-tolerant of my communist sympathies - even bought me Land og Folk, the Danish party paper - which made me in turn more tolerant when I grew up. Are there parents who shout "stupid child, you can't vote like that!"?