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CON MPs will do what’s best for their survival chances? – politicalbetting.com

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Roger said:

    Only country in G7 with inflation above 10%.

    I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner

    The first is true. The second is not.

    Can I ask if you have moved back here from France or are you just repeating what you assume is happening?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Yes, did that a couple of days ago and it was about £15 off the peak.

    What this number shows is how difficult it is to get the inflation genie back in the bottle once it has been let out. I think the forecasts of inflation at 2.7% or whatever by the end of the year will prove to be optimistic.
    It’s probably still a safe bet. Wholesale price inflation is falling very rapidly now.
    I still expect CPI to fall significantly by end this year but to around 4% rather than the 2.9% (?) OBR forecast. The slow down/partial reversal of energy price rises will play a large part in this.

    Maybe a 0.25% increase in interest rates tomorrow?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.
    Brent Crude is down 9% year to date, which should feed into transport costs over time; but once companies start raising prices rather than absorbing higher costs, they rarely ever come back down as costs fall. Will be interesting to see if McDonald’s actually cut prices like-for-like.
    Won't make any difference to me. Dreadful stuff. If you have to eat a burger then Burger King is the way to go. At least it tastes like meat....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    ydoethur said:

    So Trump hasn’t been arrested yet?

    They are waiting for a two-fer with Boris....

    Remarkable synchonicity that we might effectively see the end of the careers of two of the most divisive figures in early 21st century politics - on the same day.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited March 2023
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    What these headlines do show is that Boris is still box office, far more colourful and interesting than the technocrat Rishi or the automaton SKS or indeed anyone else in British politics.

    Personally, I think this is a distraction now. The Casey report really needed to be more than a 1 day wonder. We have many serious issues to address and Boris, above all, is not serious.

    Glad it’s not just me who can’t be bothered with this one. The guy lost his job, and we should all be able to move on. There’s an enquiry ongoing, which will report back in a non-political way.

    We see from the US what happens when petty politics goes too far, with a former president potentially about to get arrested for a minor misdemeanour, just so the opposing party can get a mugshot or a perp walk.

    Anyway, work to do, that new server won’t configure itself. Laters.
    He isn't going to be arrested afaik. Trump is bigging it up as an arrest
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    ydoethur said:

    So Trump hasn’t been arrested yet?

    They are waiting for a two-fer with Boris....

    Remarkable synchonicity that we might effectively see the end of the careers of two of the most divisive figures in early 21st century politics - on the same day.
    Gee thanks for that amazing mental image.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    Without knowing the details, wouldn't it depend on the scheme?

    If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
    He was head of DPP for 5 years on a salary of less than £200,000 PA. How could he build a pension pot of anywhere near £1,000,000?
    Not sure - DB or DC? When was he there? The Annual Allowance which restricts pension conts didn't come in (at a "low" level) until 2011 when it was set at £50k gross. Before then someone on £200k could put £200k into a pension if desired - more likely just the amount over and above the higher tax rate. Five years of high contributions plus growth could get him to £1m.
    I should have got a different accountant. it was never more than 20% as I remember.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited March 2023
    O/T but especially for our mothers,

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/22/drought-threatening-british-moth-species-with-local-extinction

    But is it o/t? Climate and the environment are going to become more salient again, and with Prime Minister Mr "Private Helicopter and Swimming Pool that needs new mains cables down the road" in charge, that is one area where Mr Johnson was somewhat better off for the Tories, believe it or not.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    Roger said:

    Only country in G7 with inflation above 10%.

    I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner

    Though it is a mixed picture. Holidays are selling well for example. In part it is money saved in lockdown, and part people working on a bucket list, but also an element of spend it now before prices go up. A lot of people's financial horizons are very short.
  • OldBasingOldBasing Posts: 173
    Foxy said:

    OldBasing said:

    Eabhal said:

    Inflation up! That's a bit of a surprise.

    Fwiw (anecdotal, so not much), all the economic stuff is finally catching up with people. I'm in the process of re-mortgaging (35% increase), council tax increase has arrived, energy support coming to an end.

    Not a surprise for anyone who goes to a supermarket. But yep, I'm now looking at the end to the £400 fuel payment (so that's my gas/electric up £67 a month), council tax bill has just landed, up 5%; water bill also set to rise, plus the mobile phone and broadband increases. Fortunately I remortgaged last June on a five year fixed rate. This is why I don't think the government benefits any time soon - a lot of these increases are a slow burn and more and more people will be coming off fixed mortgage rates and also fixed fuel deals as the months go by. The food inflation thing the real killer - ONS says its running at 18%. Not great for their pensioner core vote.
    Doing my sums on interest rates, utilities etc, I am about £1 000 per month worse off this year than the same month last year.
    Sounds similar - the biggest cost for me has been gas / electric as this time last year I was still on a fixed deal. Even my remortgage was still another £80 a month up despite being before the Truss debacle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    Without knowing the details, wouldn't it depend on the scheme?

    If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
    He was head of DPP for 5 years on a salary of less than £200,000 PA. How could he build a pension pot of anywhere near £1,000,000?
    Not sure - DB or DC? When was he there? The Annual Allowance which restricts pension conts didn't come in (at a "low" level) until 2011 when it was set at £50k gross. Before then someone on £200k could put £200k into a pension if desired - more likely just the amount over and above the higher tax rate. Five years of high contributions plus growth could get him to £1m.
    Didn't someone say yesterday he was just halfway to the limit?

    DT was probably just digging dirt systematically. Next it will tbe the judges who get the flak - "enemies of the people" in Daily Mailese.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Some good news for once would be appreciated
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what Boris plan is. Smell a bit of a Churchill wilderness years strategy. It’s very symmetrical with Labour. Has there been an election, where the two previous leaders have been kicked out?

    You think he will have an actual plan?

    That really is a triumph of hope over experience.

    Edit - in answer to your question, I can't think of any example since 1868. Since the previous election in 1865 there had been Palmerston (died) Russell (sacked) Derby (retired) and Disraeli (defeated).

    You have Salisbury, Balfour and Campbell-Bannerman in 1900-06 but Parliament didn't meet between Balfour resigning and Campbell-Bannerman dissolving it.
    Boris might not plan, but he plots and schemes.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    MattW said:

    Boris Johnson's political career needs to be terminated with extreme prejudice.

    Even if this gifts Labour a seat- worth it.

    The greater gift to Labour would be to let him off lightly.

    Blow him away.
    I'm in agreement there.

    Deselection for 2024 sounds a good idea if expulsion sooner does not happen, but I'm not sure the Tories are well set up to do that.

    Given this Govt they may prefer to delegate the execution to the Electorate.
    Reselected last week;

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64986948

    Odd timing given the cloud over him; postponing the decision would surely have been more prudent.

    But highlights the Conservative problem. Those who still worship him, still worship him.
    I think getting Conservative MPs reselected might have been widespread. Same happened with my MP recently.

    Probably on a snap-election grid on someone's spreadsheet, still implemented even though it was decided it was not going to be any earlier than 2024.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Somewhat ironic if Sunak fails on the one promise that looked an absolute banker "We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security."

    More seriously CPI has been above 9% for nearly a year now and, as you imply, there must be a danger it becomes self-propelling.
    I can think of no instance, around the world, where inflation decided to go away by itself. It has always required harsh economic medicine.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So Trump hasn’t been arrested yet?

    They are waiting for a two-fer with Boris....

    Remarkable synchonicity that we might effectively see the end of the careers of two of the most divisive figures in early 21st century politics - on the same day.
    Gee thanks for that amazing mental image.
    I can't be expected to rein in my comments to take account of your smutty mind. None of us can. We'd never post anything....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    Jan 2024 Boris Johnson , Jeremy Corbyn & Nigel Farage create the WTF party…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    So Trump hasn’t been arrested yet?

    They are waiting for a two-fer with Boris....

    Remarkable synchonicity that we might effectively see the end of the careers of two of the most divisive figures in early 21st century politics - on the same day.
    Gee thanks for that amazing mental image.
    I can't be expected to rein in my comments to take account of your smutty mind. None of us can. We'd never post anything....
    I appreciate you might find it hard.

    But for me, that metaphor was a flop.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,044
    edited March 2023

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Many years ago when we were visiting our family in Lossiemouth, one of our many uncles (11) called on my father in law to chat about all things 'fishing' and was very ill with cancer

    When I asked how he was he responded with a twinkle in his eye with these words that have stayed with me ever since

    'Why should a breathing man complain'

    He dIed 3 weeks later

    Sometimes we need to step away and appreciate life itself
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,358
    Roger said:

    Only country in G7 with inflation above 10%.

    I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner

    Do you never meet beggars in France?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Interesting Veiculo Longo on the M25 this morning.

    Maybe it means something different in Portuguese.


    Maybe an extension of Theresa May's "foreigners go home" vans from a while ago.

    You'd have thought Suella would have rolled out the policy to a fanfare on GBNews.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Inflation up at an annualised rate of 4.5% over the last four months (since the last increase in the energy price cap).

    Disappointingly high today, but it still points to inflation coming down to more modest (albeit still elevated) levels by the end of the year once last year's increases fall out of the 12-month period.

    It surely means another rate increase from the BoE tomorrow is necessary?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    Without knowing the details, wouldn't it depend on the scheme?

    If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
    He was head of DPP for 5 years on a salary of less than £200,000 PA. How could he build a pension pot of anywhere near £1,000,000?
    Not sure - DB or DC? When was he there? The Annual Allowance which restricts pension conts didn't come in (at a "low" level) until 2011 when it was set at £50k gross. Before then someone on £200k could put £200k into a pension if desired - more likely just the amount over and above the higher tax rate. Five years of high contributions plus growth could get him to £1m.
    I should have got a different accountant. it was never more than 20% as I remember.
    Maybe you should Roger. I regularly put in 100% of my salary. Not that, that was very much as I paid myself very little at the time.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Many years ago when we were visiting our family in Lossiemouth, one of our many uncles (11) called on my father in law to chat about all things 'fishing' and was very ill with cancer

    When I asked how he was he responded with a twinkle in his eye with these words that have stayed with me ever since

    'Why should a breathing man complain'

    He dIed 3 weeks later

    Sometimes we need to step away and appreciate life itself
    True, but not a winning slogan for 2024.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    edited March 2023
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what Boris plan is. Smell a bit of a Churchill wilderness years strategy. It’s very symmetrical with Labour. Has there been an election, where the two previous leaders have been kicked out?

    That Boris plan:

    1. Make lots of money
    2. Er...
    3. That's it.

    Ted Heath was worth £5m when he died, so could afford to hang around on the backbenches. Boris? Not so much...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    Without knowing the details, wouldn't it depend on the scheme?

    If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
    He was head of DPP for 5 years on a salary of less than £200,000 PA. How could he build a pension pot of anywhere near £1,000,000?
    Not sure - DB or DC? When was he there? The Annual Allowance which restricts pension conts didn't come in (at a "low" level) until 2011 when it was set at £50k gross. Before then someone on £200k could put £200k into a pension if desired - more likely just the amount over and above the higher tax rate. Five years of high contributions plus growth could get him to £1m.
    I should have got a different accountant. it was never more than 20% as I remember.
    Maybe you should Roger. I regularly put in 100% of my salary. Not that, that was very much as I paid myself very little at the time.
    Tax free?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Conservative polling now at 35% and only 10 points behind Labour.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Eabhal said:

    Strange that Johnson will vote against the Windsor deal. Surely not the day to be antagonising people?

    Who would it antagonize? Those voting for it are less likely to vote to save him anyway, whilst those voting against will need assurance he is still their man.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    edited March 2023
    Roger said:

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    Without knowing the details, wouldn't it depend on the scheme?

    If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
    He was head of DPP for 5 years on a salary of less than £200,000 PA. How could he build a pension pot of anywhere near £1,000,000?
    Not sure - DB or DC? When was he there? The Annual Allowance which restricts pension conts didn't come in (at a "low" level) until 2011 when it was set at £50k gross. Before then someone on £200k could put £200k into a pension if desired - more likely just the amount over and above the higher tax rate. Five years of high contributions plus growth could get him to £1m.
    I should have got a different accountant. it was never more than 20% as I remember.
    Maybe you should Roger. I regularly put in 100% of my salary. Not that, that was very much as I paid myself very little at the time.
    Tax free?
    Yep. I maxed out at the allowed 100% of a small amount to keep under NI limit as it was the only way of getting money into a pension tax free. I had other income to use up my personal allowance and 20% band and left the remainder in my company. Standard practice for people running there own companies at the time.

  • Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Conservative polling now at 35% and only 10 points behind Labour.
    I am very sceptical about that poll but it does seem as if the conservatives are now in the low thirties and Sunak overtook Starmer as best PM in the red wall seats in yesterday's poll

    The circus around Johnson and his devotees is a distraction and is tedious in the extreme
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what Boris plan is. Smell a bit of a Churchill wilderness years strategy. It’s very symmetrical with Labour. Has there been an election, where the two previous leaders have been kicked out?

    That Boris plan:

    1. Make lots of money
    2. Er...
    3. That's it.

    Ted Heath was worth £5m when he died, so could afford to hang around on the backbenches. Boris? Not so much...
    He's raking it in whilst on the back benches now.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    edited March 2023
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Only country in G7 with inflation above 10%.

    I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner

    The first is true. The second is not.

    Can I ask if you have moved back here from France or are you just repeating what you assume is happening?
    I'm spending more time in the UK than France because we now have a 90 day rule and it's now a bit more difficult to come and go as we please.

    Do you live in a city?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what Boris plan is. Smell a bit of a Churchill wilderness years strategy. It’s very symmetrical with Labour. Has there been an election, where the two previous leaders have been kicked out?

    That Boris plan:

    1. Make lots of money
    2. Er...
    3. That's it.

    Ted Heath was worth £5m when he died, so could afford to hang around on the backbenches. Boris? Not so much...
    2. Have lots of affairs.
    3. Produce lots more children.

    Although I suppose 3 is merely an outcome of 2.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    Has Sunak published his tax returns yet.

    There's no way the Tories win a battle of the tax affairs of the leaders.

    Only a cynic would suggest a pro-Boris leak to the Telegraph aimed at undermining both Starmer and Sunak.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Conservative polling now at 35% and only 10 points behind Labour.
    A budget that didn’t explode, an agreement on NI, and agreement with France on the boats.

    These may not work out, but the absence of disasters has been notable.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    What these headlines do show is that Boris is still box office, far more colourful and interesting than the technocrat Rishi or the automaton SKS or indeed anyone else in British politics.

    Personally, I think this is a distraction now. The Casey report really needed to be more than a 1 day wonder. We have many serious issues to address and Boris, above all, is not serious.

    Glad it’s not just me who can’t be bothered with this one. The guy lost his job, and we should all be able to move on. There’s an enquiry ongoing, which will report back in a non-political way.

    We see from the US what happens when petty politics goes too far, with a former president potentially about to get arrested for a minor misdemeanour, just so the opposing party can get a mugshot or a perp walk.

    Anyway, work to do, that new server won’t configure itself. Laters.
    Why won't it? Ansible (or similar) is available.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    The main criticism of the Windsor Framework, as far as I can gather, is that a complex diplomatic compromise on a divisive issue turns out to be somewhat complex in its mechanisms, and they don't allow some easy, instant action without consequence. They expected that?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    It should not be forgotten that the majority of ConHome readers in the survey yesterday wanted Boris to stand again as an MP even if not to return as Conservative leader and PM.

    So Tory MPs who vote to suspend Johnson risk deselection by their local Conservative Associations, in which case they would not even get to fight another general election
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Only country in G7 with inflation above 10%.

    I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner

    Do you never meet beggars in France?
    Quite a few in Nice. Probably less obvious than London or Manchester and very few in the smaller towns in the South
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Only country in G7 with inflation above 10%.

    I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner

    The first is true. The second is not.

    Can I ask if you have moved back here from France or are you just repeating what you assume is happening?
    I'm spending more time in the UK than France because we now have a 90 day rule and it's now a bit more difficult to come and go as we please.

    Do you live in a city?
    Depends what you call a city. It's an urban area of 90,000 people with a high deprivation index.

    And yes, you see beggars from time to time but they are certainly not 'on every street corner.'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    It should not be forgotten that the majority of ConHome readers in the survey yesterday wanted Boris to stand again as an MP even if not to return as Conservative leader and PM.

    So Tory MPs who vote to suspend Johnson risk deselection by their local Conservative Associations, in which case they would not even get to fight another general election

    That risk is so small it would require an electron microscope to find it....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    It’s the hypocrisy that will do for Johnson

    Voters once loved his lies, but arguing he didn’t understand his own rules has turned him into just another evasive politician

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/its-the-hypocrisy-that-will-do-for-boris-johnson-n6mzftnq8 (£££)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    kle4 said:

    The main criticism of the Windsor Framework, as far as I can gather, is that a complex diplomatic compromise on a divisive issue turns out to be somewhat complex in its mechanisms, and they don't allow some easy, instant action without consequence. They expected that?

    We're talking about the DUP and the ERG. The former were founded by Ian Paisley and the latter are admirers of Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson.

    What do you think?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
    Cartels.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
    Cartels.
    Petrol goes in cartels?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    kle4 said:

    The main criticism of the Windsor Framework, as far as I can gather, is that a complex diplomatic compromise on a divisive issue turns out to be somewhat complex in its mechanisms, and they don't allow some easy, instant action without consequence. They expected that?

    Who would have thought being a grown up would lead to things being complex... ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting article, which goes beyond the headline pointing out the lack of spare parts for much of the captured kit.

    Ukrainians are riding tanks captured from an elite Russian unit into battle in Bakhmut, but their new gear may not last long
    https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-is-using-captured-russian-tanks-but-faces-logistic-issues-2023-3

    The article states that there will be problems with spares, ammunition and gun barrels. When it comes to spares for engines, sights etc, the the Ukrainians have a large homegrown tank industry. Whilst the war has damaged this, it's still capable. In addition, countries like Poland have a long history of radically updating their ex-Soviet tanks (albeit T-72).

    In addition, the Ukrainians have already been converting captured tanks for other purposes.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/13/the-ukrainians-are-converting-worthless-russian-tanks-into-priceless-engineering-vehicles
    The more interesting bit was the need for a lot more armoured infantry transport.
  • kjh said:

    Roger said:

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    Without knowing the details, wouldn't it depend on the scheme?

    If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
    He was head of DPP for 5 years on a salary of less than £200,000 PA. How could he build a pension pot of anywhere near £1,000,000?
    Not sure - DB or DC? When was he there? The Annual Allowance which restricts pension conts didn't come in (at a "low" level) until 2011 when it was set at £50k gross. Before then someone on £200k could put £200k into a pension if desired - more likely just the amount over and above the higher tax rate. Five years of high contributions plus growth could get him to £1m.
    I should have got a different accountant. it was never more than 20% as I remember.
    Maybe you should Roger. I regularly put in 100% of my salary. Not that, that was very much as I paid myself very little at the time.
    Tax free?
    Yep. I maxed out at the allowed 100% of a small amount to keep under NI limit as it was the only way of getting money into a pension tax free. I had other income to use up my personal allowance and 20% band and left the remainder in my company. Standard practice for people running there own companies at the time.

    I have just changed accountant, and going over the status quo with my consulting company we did touch on pensions and my lack of any contributions recently. Had I done so, this January's cash flow crisis (non-payment by clients) would likely have sunk me. A company can't pay in money it doesn't have...

    Anyway, in the few years on non-pension badness I have acquired a property which has both a commercial premises and planning permission for a new house on a large back garden we don't use/need. Which is better than nothing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    The main criticism of the Windsor Framework, as far as I can gather, is that a complex diplomatic compromise on a divisive issue turns out to be somewhat complex in its mechanisms, and they don't allow some easy, instant action without consequence. They expected that?

    We're talking about the DUP and the ERG. The former were founded by Ian Paisley and the latter are admirers of Dominic Cummings and Boris Johnson.

    What do you think?
    I try to be optimistic.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    HYUFD said:

    It should not be forgotten that the majority of ConHome readers in the survey yesterday wanted Boris to stand again as an MP even if not to return as Conservative leader and PM.

    So Tory MPs who vote to suspend Johnson risk deselection by their local Conservative Associations, in which case they would not even get to fight another general election

    That risk is so small it would require an electron microscope to find it....
    Is it? We have already seen some wet Tories deselected or lose out where boundary changes have come in. I think @HYUFD makes a valid point. The extent of which the pair of you have far more knowledge than me.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    kjh said:

    Roger said:

    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    Without knowing the details, wouldn't it depend on the scheme?

    If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
    He was head of DPP for 5 years on a salary of less than £200,000 PA. How could he build a pension pot of anywhere near £1,000,000?
    Not sure - DB or DC? When was he there? The Annual Allowance which restricts pension conts didn't come in (at a "low" level) until 2011 when it was set at £50k gross. Before then someone on £200k could put £200k into a pension if desired - more likely just the amount over and above the higher tax rate. Five years of high contributions plus growth could get him to £1m.
    I should have got a different accountant. it was never more than 20% as I remember.
    Maybe you should Roger. I regularly put in 100% of my salary. Not that, that was very much as I paid myself very little at the time.
    Tax free?
    Yep. I maxed out at the allowed 100% of a small amount to keep under NI limit as it was the only way of getting money into a pension tax free. I had other income to use up my personal allowance and 20% band and left the remainder in my company. Standard practice for people running there own companies at the time.

    Still is pretty much
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    HYUFD said:

    It should not be forgotten that the majority of ConHome readers in the survey yesterday wanted Boris to stand again as an MP even if not to return as Conservative leader and PM.

    So Tory MPs who vote to suspend Johnson risk deselection by their local Conservative Associations, in which case they would not even get to fight another general election

    It would be funny if Sunak removes the whip from Boris-supporters, while local parties deselect the rest. An all-new PCP for 2024.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
    Cartels.
    Petrol goes in cartels?
    I'm afraid that pun has tanked somewhat.
  • Anyway, the Starmer story in the Borisgraph really shows how desperate they are. A story about how his pension isn't really all that which opens the door to mega scrutiny of the owners of the Tory party? Great tactical move...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
    Cartels.
    Petrol goes in cartels?
    I can’t think of any good puns to reply to that, but diesel do for now.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,329
    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
    Just fact that Diesel is anything up to 20p+ a litre more than petrol and in a small area even the diesel prices vary by at least 10p. I live in a populated area so it is not fact that there is only the odd petrol station, quite the opposite so pricing seems crazy.
  • HYUFD said:

    It should not be forgotten that the majority of ConHome readers in the survey yesterday wanted Boris to stand again as an MP even if not to return as Conservative leader and PM.

    So Tory MPs who vote to suspend Johnson risk deselection by their local Conservative Associations, in which case they would not even get to fight another general election

    The membership is so out of touch with public opinion and any hope of electing a conservative government
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Conservative polling now at 35% and only 10 points behind Labour.
    I am very sceptical about that poll but it does seem as if the conservatives are now in the low thirties and Sunak overtook Starmer as best PM in the red wall seats in yesterday's poll

    The circus around Johnson and his devotees is a distraction and is tedious in the extreme
    Those polling moves will mean the difference between a bunch of MPs having lost their seat - and having a fighting chance of hanging on into the next Parliament. The dial has recently moved significantly against Boris and towards Rishi.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Jonathan said:

    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.

    They really are - across the board, it feels like. Not just fruit and veg either, stuff like pop and cat food and whatnot. My 'essentials only' weekly household shop used to be reliably around £50-60; it's now £70-80.

    My train fare just went up too - £7.30 return for a 12 minute train journey into Manchester. Never mind energy bills. I'm just glad our mortgage is still locked in at a decent rate for a couple of years.

    Ultimately, no amount of gunboats in the Channel or planes to Rwanda will help this. And it's this that'll sink this government.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
    Cartels.
    Good answer, but is it true that there is a cartel at the supply to retailer level?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Liz Truss to join Johnson in voting against the WF

    The bitterness of losers on full view

    But this is a Brexit fight, and BoZo was the 'winner'

    The worst winners in history...
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.

    They really are - across the board, it feels like. Not just fruit and veg either, stuff like pop and cat food and whatnot. My 'essentials only' weekly household shop used to be reliably around £50-60; it's now £70-80.

    My train fare just went up too - £7.30 return for a 12 minute train journey into Manchester. Never mind energy bills. I'm just glad our mortgage is still locked in at a decent rate for a couple of years.

    Ultimately, no amount of gunboats in the Channel or planes to Rwanda will help this. And it's this that'll sink this government.
    Yes the three big issues which will dictate the outcome of the next GE are:

    CPI

    CPI and...

    CPI

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well done to whoever at the Telegraph uncovered the existence of a Statutory Instrument named:

    “The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”

    Did Starmer make a pension pot of more than £1,000,000 when his salary was under £200,000 a year? Seems unlikely.

    More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
    I've been struggling with the LTA - frustrating, given it's now to be abolished - and my salary was nowhere near that.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.

    They really are - across the board, it feels like. Not just fruit and veg either, stuff like pop and cat food and whatnot. My 'essentials only' weekly household shop used to be reliably around £50-60; it's now £70-80.

    My train fare just went up too - £7.30 return for a 12 minute train journey into Manchester. Never mind energy bills. I'm just glad our mortgage is still locked in at a decent rate for a couple of years.

    Ultimately, no amount of gunboats in the Channel or planes to Rwanda will help this. And it's this that'll sink this government.
    Yes the three big issues which will dictate the outcome of the next GE are:

    CPI

    CPI and...

    CPI

    And the general look and feel of things.

    Anecdote alert:

    I was at a think tank dinner last night sat next to someone who’d been a Tory PPC up in Cumbria in 2017 and remains an activist. Classic red Waller, Cumbrian accent, gung ho Brexiteer, anti-lockdown etc. He volunteered unprompted to me that “you can just sense this government is failing. It feels and smells like a failed government. They don’t have a hope.” And various other comments along those lines.

    No one specific reason or bugbear on his part, just a sense of a party ready for time in opposition.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260

    Remove the whip from the rebels - permanently.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss to join Johnson in voting against the WF

    The bitterness of losers on full view

    But this is a Brexit fight, and BoZo was the 'winner'

    The worst winners in history...
    Only bettered by the Remainers being the worst losers...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Interesting article, which goes beyond the headline pointing out the lack of spare parts for much of the captured kit.

    Ukrainians are riding tanks captured from an elite Russian unit into battle in Bakhmut, but their new gear may not last long
    https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-is-using-captured-russian-tanks-but-faces-logistic-issues-2023-3

    The article states that there will be problems with spares, ammunition and gun barrels. When it comes to spares for engines, sights etc, the the Ukrainians have a large homegrown tank industry. Whilst the war has damaged this, it's still capable. In addition, countries like Poland have a long history of radically updating their ex-Soviet tanks (albeit T-72).

    In addition, the Ukrainians have already been converting captured tanks for other purposes.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/13/the-ukrainians-are-converting-worthless-russian-tanks-into-priceless-engineering-vehicles
    The more interesting bit was the need for a lot more armoured infantry transport.
    The Ukrainians have bought up a lot of APCs from the collectors market - 432, Spartan, even some Saracens have been seen.

    A chap I knew had a 432 he’d stuffed a Centurion power pack into. Wonder where that is now. It was crazy fast….
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Nigelb said:

    You've never had it so good.

    The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.

    Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.

    Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231

    Once inflation is in the system, it lasts far longer than the primary cause. That is why inflation has been hard to beat, every time, previously.
    Nonetheless you might have expected falling energy prices to make some difference.


    You would. The price I notice most is tfe cost of filling up my car.
    Found a garage where diesel is 151p per litre.

    The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
    You have to factor in the cost of getting g there. That price is about on the money afaik. All the other stations are ripping you off. Shell near me is 172.9 ffs cheapest is tesco in Shoreham at 164.9
    Here it varies 152 - 163, it is blatant robbery by petrol stations. Lucky I only fill up every 4-6 weeks as I have the extended 75 litre tank, so can do it at best possible prices when it suits.
    Hi Malc. I note your post and also @squareroot2 has posted on this a few times. I'm not an expert on this by any stretch of the imagination, but surely there is a free market in petrol. Petrol is a commodity so the base price is the same for everyone. It will then vary for petrol station to petrol station depending on added overheads eg transport and also variable profit margins depending on scarcity of otherwise of local petrol stations, eg higher on motorways, lower where there are competing stations.

    What am I missing?
    Cartels.
    Petrol goes in cartels?
    I can’t think of any good puns to reply to that, but diesel do for now.
    Some solid punning this morning. I give it four stars.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Jonathan said:

    Jan 2024 Boris Johnson , Jeremy Corbyn & Nigel Farage create the WTF party…

    WTF - Wanker, Twat & Fuckwit Party? Fair enough, but which is which?

    Sounds like the foundation for a harsher, more truthful politics :wink:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913

    Has Sunak published his tax returns yet.

    There's no way the Tories win a battle of the tax affairs of the leaders.

    Quite right. Starmer would be well advised to leave that Telegraph 'scoop' hanging in the air. Two birds with one stone
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss to join Johnson in voting against the WF

    The bitterness of losers on full view

    But this is a Brexit fight, and BoZo was the 'winner'

    The worst winners in history...
    Only bettered by the Remainers being the worst losers...
    'Remoaners', surely?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.

    They really are - across the board, it feels like. Not just fruit and veg either, stuff like pop and cat food and whatnot. My 'essentials only' weekly household shop used to be reliably around £50-60; it's now £70-80.

    My train fare just went up too - £7.30 return for a 12 minute train journey into Manchester. Never mind energy bills. I'm just glad our mortgage is still locked in at a decent rate for a couple of years.

    Ultimately, no amount of gunboats in the Channel or planes to Rwanda will help this. And it's this that'll sink this government.
    Yes the three big issues which will dictate the outcome of the next GE are:

    CPI

    CPI and...

    CPI

    And the general look and feel of things.

    Anecdote alert:

    I was at a think tank dinner last night sat next to someone who’d been a Tory PPC up in Cumbria in 2017 and remains an activist. Classic red Waller, Cumbrian accent, gung ho Brexiteer, anti-lockdown etc. He volunteered unprompted to me that “you can just sense this government is failing. It feels and smells like a failed government. They don’t have a hope.” And various other comments along those lines.

    No one specific reason or bugbear on his part, just a sense of a party ready for time in opposition.
    Ex-PPCs are some of the most embittered people in politics!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260

    Remove the whip from the rebels - permanently.
    That might really disconcert Boris. Back in the Commons, perhaps, but without a party!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Conservative polling now at 35% and only 10 points behind Labour.
    I am very sceptical about that poll but it does seem as if the conservatives are now in the low thirties and Sunak overtook Starmer as best PM in the red wall seats in yesterday's poll

    The circus around Johnson and his devotees is a distraction and is tedious in the extreme
    Which was the Red Wall poll?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260

    Labour

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.

    They really are - across the board, it feels like. Not just fruit and veg either, stuff like pop and cat food and whatnot. My 'essentials only' weekly household shop used to be reliably around £50-60; it's now £70-80.

    My train fare just went up too - £7.30 return for a 12 minute train journey into Manchester. Never mind energy bills. I'm just glad our mortgage is still locked in at a decent rate for a couple of years.

    Ultimately, no amount of gunboats in the Channel or planes to Rwanda will help this. And it's this that'll sink this government.
    Yes the three big issues which will dictate the outcome of the next GE are:

    CPI

    CPI and...

    CPI

    And the general look and feel of things.

    Anecdote alert:

    I was at a think tank dinner last night sat next to someone who’d been a Tory PPC up in Cumbria in 2017 and remains an activist. Classic red Waller, Cumbrian accent, gung ho Brexiteer, anti-lockdown etc. He volunteered unprompted to me that “you can just sense this government is failing. It feels and smells like a failed government. They don’t have a hope.” And various other comments along those lines.

    No one specific reason or bugbear on his part, just a sense of a party ready for time in opposition.
    Ex-PPCs are some of the most embittered people in politics!
    He’s right though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260

    He can hardly acknowledge his "oven-ready deal" was a deep-frozen slab of salmonella, can he?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260

    Remove the whip from the rebels - permanently.
    That might really disconcert Boris. Back in the Commons, perhaps, but without a party!
    Don't say "party". Say "morale boosting work event".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.

    They really are - across the board, it feels like. Not just fruit and veg either, stuff like pop and cat food and whatnot. My 'essentials only' weekly household shop used to be reliably around £50-60; it's now £70-80.

    My train fare just went up too - £7.30 return for a 12 minute train journey into Manchester. Never mind energy bills. I'm just glad our mortgage is still locked in at a decent rate for a couple of years.

    Ultimately, no amount of gunboats in the Channel or planes to Rwanda will help this. And it's this that'll sink this government.
    Yes the three big issues which will dictate the outcome of the next GE are:

    CPI

    CPI and...

    CPI

    And the general look and feel of things.

    Anecdote alert:

    I was at a think tank dinner last night sat next to someone who’d been a Tory PPC up in Cumbria in 2017 and remains an activist. Classic red Waller, Cumbrian accent, gung ho Brexiteer, anti-lockdown etc. He volunteered unprompted to me that “you can just sense this government is failing. It feels and smells like a failed government. They don’t have a hope.” And various other comments along those lines.

    No one specific reason or bugbear on his part, just a sense of a party ready for time in opposition.
    Ex-PPCs are some of the most embittered people in politics!
    The Tory problem is that there's probably a majority of the electorate also embittered.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Selebian said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Liz Truss to join Johnson in voting against the WF

    The bitterness of losers on full view

    But this is a Brexit fight, and BoZo was the 'winner'

    The worst winners in history...
    Only bettered by the Remainers being the worst losers...
    'Remoaners', surely?
    We gammons don't go in for gratuitous insults...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    Interesting "how do we deal with sewage in rivers and beaches piece on the BBC:

    "It is going to be hugely expensive to put this right."

    Most see the solution as building a waste water system that manages rainwater and waste water separately, so they no longer go to the same place to be treated.

    But estimates for how much this updated sewage network might cost vary widely. The Lords report says they had heard estimates that range from tens of billions to hundreds of billions of pounds over decades.

    Last year the government published its Storm Overflows Discharge Reduction Plan, which will it says compel water companies to invest £56bn over the next 25 years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65028971

    The £56bn investment required in England is a good number, which I make around 6x total annual domestic water bills. So over 25 years that's going to be perhaps a 15-20% increase on bills throughout the period.

    Which is somewhere between the Green handwaving "Industry profits will pay it all. Abracadabra", and the numbers several times larger from industry sources.

    It's also in line with the numbers assessed for investment required across the EU under their water project.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    edited March 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260

    Remove the whip from the rebels - permanently.
    That might really disconcert Boris. Back in the Commons, perhaps, but without a party!
    Don't say "party". Say "morale boosting work event".
    I like the idea of disconnecting Boris.

    Is there an off switch?

    Disconcert? Boring man.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Only country in G7 with inflation above 10%.

    I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner

    The first is true.
    And has always been true for as long as I can remember...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Ulster Unionist Party endorses Windsor Framework as an 'important stepping stone'

    https://twitter.com/uuponline/status/1638105487819300864?t=FPqDgxsy_XsBaI_RoGYhWg&s=19
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    I see it's "get excited by the difference between 9.9 and 10.4 on an estimated figure that will change in a month and change again in two months" day.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    https://www.rte.ie/news/environment/2023/0321/1365480-tree-council/

    There's a video news report in this article towards the end of which you can actually see George Lee smiling! George Lee! Smiling on a news report!

    This might not make much sense to anyone who hasn't watched Irish news over the last couple of decades. Let me explain. George Lee was the Economics correspondent on RTÉ news at the time of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 onwards. Then he became RTÉ science correspondent in time for the Covid pandemic. He's the Mr Doom of Irish news.

    So, if a news story can make George Lee smile, then it has to be exceptionally good news.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,044
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson says he will vote against the Windsor Deal with the DUP. The ERG will likely follow suit

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65034260

    Someone needs to remind them of the Japanese soldier found in the jungle decades after the war

    These are the end days for the ERG as it is obvious the public want closer relationship with the EU, something Sunak has recognised and for the first time since 2019 a conservative PM values close cooperation in Europe

    Furthermore, as is likely Starmer will continue this process if elected in 24, when we look back to today with Johnson 'blame everyone but me' defence at the privileges committee and the dying embers of the ERG voting against the WF it will be said that was the day everything changed and not in the way the ERG had hoped
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    That's why they postponed HS2 ?

    Channel crossings scheme costs ‘could top £9bn in three years’
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/22/channel-crossings-scheme-costs-could-top-9bn-in-three-years
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimS said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Jonathan said:

    I’m not surprised that inflation is still high. Prices are rising noticeably in the shops.

    They really are - across the board, it feels like. Not just fruit and veg either, stuff like pop and cat food and whatnot. My 'essentials only' weekly household shop used to be reliably around £50-60; it's now £70-80.

    My train fare just went up too - £7.30 return for a 12 minute train journey into Manchester. Never mind energy bills. I'm just glad our mortgage is still locked in at a decent rate for a couple of years.

    Ultimately, no amount of gunboats in the Channel or planes to Rwanda will help this. And it's this that'll sink this government.
    Yes the three big issues which will dictate the outcome of the next GE are:

    CPI

    CPI and...

    CPI

    And the general look and feel of things.

    Anecdote alert:

    I was at a think tank dinner last night sat next to someone who’d been a Tory PPC up in Cumbria in 2017 and remains an activist. Classic red Waller, Cumbrian accent, gung ho Brexiteer, anti-lockdown etc. He volunteered unprompted to me that “you can just sense this government is failing. It feels and smells like a failed government. They don’t have a hope.” And various other comments along those lines.

    No one specific reason or bugbear on his part, just a sense of a party ready for time in opposition.
    Ex-PPCs are some of the most embittered people in politics!
    The Tory problem is that there's probably a majority of the electorate also embittered.
    But there's always going to be a majority of the electorate that will be embittered towards voting Tory.

    Boris got a majority of 80 with more than 56% of the electorate against him.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Boris Johnson will enjoy the rest of his life far less than he has enjoyed it up to now.

    Yes, he will earn a load of money but he will no longer get the attention he had and he will never again hold high office or be considered someone who could hold high office. Instead, he will be just another yesterday's man, doomed to perform the same act over and over again for the guffawing group of rich fools who will be the only ones interested in hearing it.

  • Roger said:

    Some good news for once would be appreciated

    Conservative polling now at 35% and only 10 points behind Labour.
    I am very sceptical about that poll but it does seem as if the conservatives are now in the low thirties and Sunak overtook Starmer as best PM in the red wall seats in yesterday's poll

    The circus around Johnson and his devotees is a distraction and is tedious in the extreme
    Which was the Red Wall poll?
    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1638226510950572053?t=EYBEivqesjMEo0WEIK_3fQ&s=19
  • HYUFD said:

    Ulster Unionist Party endorses Windsor Framework as an 'important stepping stone'

    https://twitter.com/uuponline/status/1638105487819300864?t=FPqDgxsy_XsBaI_RoGYhWg&s=19

    And here it is - the battle for Unionism. The UUP - formerly the very dominant party of power - sees the opportunity to back the framework which the majority of people and businesses there see as a Good Thing.

    And yet Moony thinks I am a hate-filled fascist who wants to destroy unionism. Far from it - and since when did Unionism = DUP? There are other unionists and not all of them are mouth-foamers like Paisley and Robinson.

    In any societal change there will always be a small minority who oppose it and want to preserve what they had, even if what they had was war. We don't need to give succour to neandertals.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    MattW said:

    Interesting "how do we deal with sewage in rivers and beaches piece on the BBC:

    "It is going to be hugely expensive to put this right."

    Most see the solution as building a waste water system that manages rainwater and waste water separately, so they no longer go to the same place to be treated.

    But estimates for how much this updated sewage network might cost vary widely. The Lords report says they had heard estimates that range from tens of billions to hundreds of billions of pounds over decades.

    Last year the government published its Storm Overflows Discharge Reduction Plan, which will it says compel water companies to invest £56bn over the next 25 years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65028971

    The £56bn investment required in England is a good number, which I make around 6x total annual domestic water bills. So over 25 years that's going to be perhaps a 15-20% increase on bills throughout the period.

    Which is somewhere between the Green handwaving "Industry profits will pay it all. Abracadabra", and the numbers several times larger from industry sources.

    It's also in line with the numbers assessed for investment required across the EU under their water project.

    The separation of waste water and rainwater will be mahoosively expensive in existing settlements. It's much cheaper to do in new developments - it's the case for the new town I live in, for example (along with SuDS, which helps).

    There might be some 'cheaper' wins, e.g. for rain water off large car parks. But we're talking gigaproject, not megaproject.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Driver said:

    I see it's "get excited by the difference between 9.9 and 10.4 on an estimated figure that will change in a month and change again in two months" day.

    So there is a margin of error. However would you like that margin of error to be on 9.9 or 10.4.

    This is like people claiming that a poll rating drop of 3% is within the margin of error and is therefore unchanged. The first part of the statement is true, the second isn't.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Reading the parliamentary reports from yesterday, it came as a bit of a shock that even Lee Anderson seems to take the problems at the Met more seriously than does the Home Secretary.
This discussion has been closed.