CON MPs will do what’s best for their survival chances? – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen just about all the front page trail the big parliamentary event this afternoon when the privileges committee report on Johnson is discussed by the House.
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(And at the other end of the spectrum is a young, healthy friend of mine who was so terrified of infecting his parents that he locked himself away for two years. There was a wide spread of reactions)
I probably broke other rules accidentally as well; but that's the only one I deliberately and frequently broke.
As an aside, a relative's GF's dad was seriously ill throughout the Covid period with cancer, and he had a reduced immune system. He told his daughter that she should live her life, and *not* see him. He would not feel hurt, or blame her, if he did not see her. It helped her a lot (he is now fairly healthy, thank goodness).
A little bit of silliness: the transport bookshop in Stamford publish regular photos of railway stations on their twitter feed, and ask people to identify where they are. I've never got one, but it's good fun. And boy, do some people have arcane knowledge of what places looked like 100 years or more ago...
https://twitter.com/RHummBooks/status/1636809158455353344
https://twitter.com/RHummBooks/status/1637230917432274944
Even if this gifts Labour a seat- worth it.
The idea was that if stopped I could simply say I was on my way to work, and hope the coppers wouldn't spot the drawings were of a completely different depot facility in East London.
No-one cared actually.
Tactically I agree, but I think there is a bigger picture here. Johnson’s flouting of the conventions of politics (as well as his own lockdown rules) was so bad that I think it has and is continuing to damage politics in general.
So for every politician of any hue, I think they should be hoping that Johnson is not let off. Otherwise I think the damage might be done to democracy in general, more so than the Tories in particular.
Much as I would like to see the Tories kicked out at the next election, the embrace of deliberate and open mendacity by any major political party is extremely damaging for democracy.
It should be.
One is that the gods of popcorn are smiling on us, and we will get the humiliations of Boris and Don simultaneously. Presumably as a split screen thing. Sort of the title sequence of The Persuaders! if that show had been about two dodgy politicians, rather than renegade crime-fighters in the South of France.
The other is than Don lied about his arrest to whip up a crowd.
I mean, how could you even suggest such a thing?
On another note, that Starmer splash in the Telegraph is hilarious. It turns out his DPP pension pot is not close to being the size necessary to ever have got close to any threshold. Who could have imagined it?
Blow him away.
“The Pensions Increase (Pension Scheme for Keir Starmer QC) Regulations 2013”
Sunak has timed the vote during Johnson’s appearance at the committee this pm
Sunak getting better at politics
Inflation in unexpected rise to 10.4%
But it did get MoonRabbit very excited.
Brexit needs it leader in Parliament, so goes his logic.
The cost of living unexpectedly increased last month after three consecutive months of easing, driven by dining out and food price rises.
Inflation, which measures the increase in the price of something over time, jumped to 10.4% in the year to February from 10.1% in January.
Food costs rose at their fastest rate for 45 years with higher costs for some salads and vegetables in particular.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65026231
Look, I know we live in the post Mass Production age. Where, while everything is mass produced to high quality, hand made is about luxury.
So people love a Riva Aquarama, despite a plastic boat being faster, easier to maintain, cheaper etc
But personalised laws?!
I’m imagining a Barristers Chambers, all oak panelling and the muzac in the waiting room is the sledge hammer tick of the clock. You are ushered into the consulting room, where a huge folio of previous personalised laws is presented to you.
The first entry is one to revoke one of the outlawries of Sweyn “The Swine*” Godwinson
*He really, really was
Oh wait, there will be some rich Conservative backers who would get very antsy at that idea.
That being said, I think this means that Labour will not be campaigns on personal taxation of politicians.
Fwiw (anecdotal, so not much), all the economic stuff is finally catching up with people. I'm in the process of re-mortgaging (35% increase), council tax increase has arrived, energy support coming to an end.
Ukrainians are riding tanks captured from an elite Russian unit into battle in Bakhmut, but their new gear may not last long
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-is-using-captured-russian-tanks-but-faces-logistic-issues-2023-3
There's no way the Tories win a battle of the tax affairs of the leaders.
More likely a last ditch BORISGRAPH diversion from their champion's crookery.
WFH bought quite a few working couples back together.
For the people living on their own in rabbit hutch one bed flats, it was a disaster. I’ve got a couple of friends who didn’t adapt well and are still showing major effects, now.
Johnson is toast.
If it was a final salary scheme, and his pension would be (say) £120,000 as a result, that's crudely a private sector equivalent pension pot from the time of around £4 million.
I am ambivalent about today's hearing. On the one hand I feel that Boris has already paid a heavy price for his lies. He lost the job he had earned with a terrific election victory, a job he has wanted all his life. On the other the convention that Ministers, up to and including the PM, have to do their very best to be truthful in the Commons is an important one and needs to be reinforced so no one is tempted again. After all Blair and his weapons of mass destruction and the dodgy dossier were a very bad precedent indeed.
These then kickoff prices rises, which kickoff wage rises, which kick off more price rises.
Some things, like housing costs, are over the longer term, so tend to be sticky. Your rent tends not to change over 6-12 months etc.
Of course, if they tried to reform the cap retrospectively the people who would get most clobbered are train drivers...
The primary tanks of the Germans in WWI were captured British tanks!
Given the ex-Soviet descended vehicles on both sides share common origins, it will be much easier than some previous situations.
More seriously CPI has been above 9% for nearly a year now and, as you imply, there must be a danger it becomes self-propelling.
The snag is it's in the middle (and I do mean the middle) of Wolverhampton.
Though a lot would depend on what other pensions he has.
Unless we have major deflation the cost of living isn't going to be eased.
What this number shows is how difficult it is to get the inflation genie back in the bottle once it has been let out. I think the forecasts of inflation at 2.7% or whatever by the end of the year will prove to be optimistic.
Russian tanks of a type not operated by Ukraine, will only have a limited lifetime when operated by Ukraine in the field, as opposed to for example the T72s operated by both sides, albeit with some differences.
So they've started selling burgers instead of grilled cardboard?
For example, cutting VAT to 10% for a period would have given a one-off reduction in inflation that would have helped dramatically reduce the increase in benefits and taken some of the pressure of pay demands. The rate could then be eased back up again when inflation is under control.
I don't know by how much a 1% change in the VAT rate affects inflation.
Maybe it means something different in Portuguese.
We will halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living and give people financial security.
We will grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country.
We will make sure our national debt is falling so that we can secure the future of public services.
NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly.
We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.
However, it might depend on whether there were minimum qualifying years and what they were. Since he was on in effect a fixed term contract there might have been clauses in his contract given him special treatment. 'Take a smaller salary and have a fecking massive pension' is a trick I've seen used for academy chain chief executives (for example) and several of them do it simply to have a massive pension as a result.
Put it this way, it doesn't seem impossible to me, although it's perhaps not the likeliest outcome.
Personally, I think this is a distraction now. The Casey report really needed to be more than a 1 day wonder. We have many serious issues to address and Boris, above all, is not serious.
In addition, the Ukrainians have already been converting captured tanks for other purposes.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/13/the-ukrainians-are-converting-worthless-russian-tanks-into-priceless-engineering-vehicles
Deselection for 2024 sounds a good idea if expulsion sooner does not happen, but I'm not sure the Tories are well set up to do that.
Given this Govt they may prefer to delegate the execution to the Electorate.
The actual exemption given to KS, was the same as that given to judges, many of whom work past usual retirement age. It’s just highly amusing that he had a law written in his name, especially when he was criticising the government over legislation to which he has a personal opt-out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-64986948
Odd timing given the cloud over him; postponing the decision would surely have been more prudent.
But highlights the Conservative problem. Those who still worship him, still worship him.
That really is a triumph of hope over experience.
Edit - in answer to your question, I can't think of any example since 1868. Since the previous election in 1865 there had been Palmerston (died) Russell (sacked) Derby (retired) and Disraeli (defeated).
You have Salisbury, Balfour and Campbell-Bannerman in 1900-06 but Parliament didn't meet between Balfour resigning and Campbell-Bannerman dissolving it.
We see from the US what happens when petty politics goes too far, with a former president potentially about to get arrested for a minor misdemeanour, just so the opposing party can get a mugshot or a perp walk.
Anyway, work to do, that new server won’t configure itself. Laters.
I wonder when this Brexit yoke will be removed from the UK's neck? Time for Starmer to become proactive and start asking questions of this Brexit government before they slink off blame free. The UK is a shambles. People sleeping in shop doorways and beggars on every street corner