Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

We can all predict Nadine’s Tweets at 10pm on May 4th – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,162
edited March 2023 in General
imageWe can all predict Nadine’s Tweets at 10pm on May 4th – politicalbetting.com

Today has been the annual local election briefing for the media by the Tory elections specialist Lord Hayward and he made what should prove to be a fairly accurate prediction about Culture Secretary Dorries. True to form in that period after the polls have closed on May 4th and we await the results Hayward suggested she’ll be going on TV arguing that the Tories would have done far better if Johnson had still been in post.

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    First like Labour
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,818
    Second like Useless (hopefully).
  • Go Nads!
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Nigelb said:

    Can we not quietly forget the Nadine was ever a thing ?

    I'm trying...
  • Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.
  • In recent weeks we have seen an exciting new media phenomenon - Tory MP presenters interviewing Tory ministers on Tory TV!

    We all enjoyed the amateur left-wing attempt with its crowning glory in the form of Novara Media's live-streamed 2019 General Election night. Their big mistake was that they broadcast the results as they came in.

    What our friends at Tory TV shold do differently is simply announce the results that they want. Have the definitely not drunk Ms Dorries interview a succession of Tory MPs about how successful the evening's results are. Speak to the Tory councillors triumphantly elected. Point the camera at glum Labour activists as they lose.

    OK so it won't reflect reality, but isn't this so-called "reality" simply a load of whining from leftie remoaner types? The people of Britain support this government and will be voting Conservative, and that is the news that is fit for Tory TV to employ Tory MPs to present.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
  • Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,039
    edited March 2023
    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    That Deltapoll should take some wind out of Labour's sails.

    Still 19 months to go too.

    SKSICWNBPM
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Sky.com - Sturgeon says leadership contest has been 'less than edifying' and urges candidates to 'protect ingredients of success'

    Ms Sturgeon says change in leadership was a "moment for renewal" as she urged those vying to succeed her "not to throw the baby out with the bathwater".

    . . . In a Beth Rigby interview due to air at 9pm on Sky News, Ms Sturgeon acknowledged the turmoil in her party following a dramatic weekend which saw her husband quit as chief executive amid a row about transparency. . . .

    In one of her last interviews as the country's leader, Ms Sturgeon also told Sky News she has not heard whether police want to interview her or her husband as part of a long-running probe into SNP finances. . . .

    Ms Sturgeon insisted the probe [of SNP finances] did not play any part in her sudden resignation last month - saying it was a mix of personal and political reasons. . . .

    "I've never doubted that I'm doing the right thing. And that's in my core. I feel that in my gut". . .

    https://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-says-leadership-contest-has-been-less-than-edifying-and-urges-candidates-to-protect-ingredients-of-success-12838811

    SSI - "less than edifying" is an understatement, for sure. AND who is responsible for THAT?

  • RobD said:

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    Finally, a non-outlier.
    Question -
    Are polls you agree with non-outliers? Conversely are polls you disagree with outliers?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929


    SSI - "less than edifying" is an understatement, for sure. AND who is responsible for THAT?

    Probably Westminster, or the Tories.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,929

    RobD said:

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    Finally, a non-outlier.
    Question -
    Are polls you agree with non-outliers? Conversely are polls you disagree with outliers?
    That’s two questions.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    Sky.com - Sturgeon says leadership contest has been 'less than edifying' and urges candidates to 'protect ingredients of success'

    Ms Sturgeon says change in leadership was a "moment for renewal" as she urged those vying to succeed her "not to throw the baby out with the bathwater".

    . . . In a Beth Rigby interview due to air at 9pm on Sky News, Ms Sturgeon acknowledged the turmoil in her party following a dramatic weekend which saw her husband quit as chief executive amid a row about transparency. . . .

    In one of her last interviews as the country's leader, Ms Sturgeon also told Sky News she has not heard whether police want to interview her or her husband as part of a long-running probe into SNP finances. . . .

    Ms Sturgeon insisted the probe [of SNP finances] did not play any part in her sudden resignation last month - saying it was a mix of personal and political reasons. . . .

    "I've never doubted that I'm doing the right thing. And that's in my core. I feel that in my gut". . .

    https://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-says-leadership-contest-has-been-less-than-edifying-and-urges-candidates-to-protect-ingredients-of-success-12838811

    SSI - "less than edifying" is an understatement, for sure. AND who is responsible for THAT?

    "Ms Sturgeon also told Sky News she has not heard whether police want to interview her or her husband as part of a long-running probe into SNP finances."

    Typical. She won't rememeber whether she has heard. Or when. Or who told her. Or didn't....
  • .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,818

    Sky.com - Sturgeon says leadership contest has been 'less than edifying' and urges candidates to 'protect ingredients of success'

    Ms Sturgeon says change in leadership was a "moment for renewal" as she urged those vying to succeed her "not to throw the baby out with the bathwater".

    . . . In a Beth Rigby interview due to air at 9pm on Sky News, Ms Sturgeon acknowledged the turmoil in her party following a dramatic weekend which saw her husband quit as chief executive amid a row about transparency. . . .

    In one of her last interviews as the country's leader, Ms Sturgeon also told Sky News she has not heard whether police want to interview her or her husband as part of a long-running probe into SNP finances. . . .

    Ms Sturgeon insisted the probe [of SNP finances] did not play any part in her sudden resignation last month - saying it was a mix of personal and political reasons. . . .

    "I've never doubted that I'm doing the right thing. And that's in my core. I feel that in my gut". . .

    https://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-says-leadership-contest-has-been-less-than-edifying-and-urges-candidates-to-protect-ingredients-of-success-12838811

    SSI - "less than edifying" is an understatement, for sure. AND who is responsible for THAT?

    "Ms Sturgeon also told Sky News she has not heard whether police want to interview her or her husband as part of a long-running probe into SNP finances."

    Typical. She won't rememeber whether she has heard. Or when. Or who told her. Or didn't....
    In fairness that is a pretty confusing set of options.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219

    RobD said:

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    Finally, a non-outlier.
    Question -
    Are polls you agree with non-outliers? Conversely are polls you disagree with outliers?
    Pretty much the textbook definition, isn't it?

    Still, it's nearly Redfield and Wilton o'clock.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Mad Nad + Mad Vlad = power couple from hell?

    More likely, the Devil's idea of a REALLY sick joke!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    35% is the best Tory score for a long time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,818

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    Astonishing differences again. 15 percentage points on the Conservative score. Really hard to understand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited March 2023

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    As both have Labour on 45%, how can that be ?

    Oh, "expert psephologist". Got it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587

    .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
    I can read, you know ...

    That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited March 2023
    New seats forecast from UKPollingReport.

    Lab 359
    Con 197

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    359 seats seems a bit low for a predicted vote share of 46%.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    Detail of the statement bit more nuanced than headlines. But the fundamental grievance is that EU law shouldn't apply at all in NI without consent. A very high bar, which wasn't explicitly part of their 7 tests. I sympathise with their concerns but...(1/3)

    They should have been clear there weren't 7 tests but 1 and its pretty much impossible one to meet with any form of the protocol. Ultimately the implication is DUP will never back any form of the protocol in NI (2/3)

    Which then leaves them two choices either they want a hard border on island of Ireland or they want all UK in SM & CU (though May backstop came close & they rejected that). They should be clear of which of these they want to see. (3/3)


    https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1637813198941220864?s=20

    Not sure if the DUP are now to be pitied or just laughed at. Having passed the Demographic Event Horizon they find themselves the second party to Sinn Fein, which means that they have to refuse to convene Stormont unless a future election restores them to primacy.

    They cling to the idea that they are the democratic voice of NI - and they no longer are. Once the election does come I suspect their vote will collapse, with an even bigger movement to pro-sanity parties like Alliance and the UUP, with their biggest bowler-hatted twats heading to TUV if they haven't done already.

    If the deal was terrible for NI then perhaps some would give them some credit for their absolutism. Yet the deal is mega for NI and the majority they claim to be representing can see this and say so very clearly.

    In the bin they go.
    As rude and ignorant a post as one ever posted.

    For people to dislike Brexit, and love every little win over it, nothing necessarily wrong in that. But where a hatred detaches someone from reality, to where you can no longer be fair and honest where it is due, that is quite wrong.

    You saying there is a real working handbrake in this deal?

    You saying the WF allowing new EU law and regulation north of the border the same as south of the border, and so very different than mainland UK, isn’t something for a Northern Ireland Unionist party to be concerned about?
    Always one of life's highlights being branded rude and ignorant by your good self. I called the DUP and their voters "bowler-hatted twats" - you aren't making a point by calling something that was deliberately rude as rude.

    Of course there is no handbrake. The DUP refuse to reconvene Stormont as they will not serve under Sinn Fein. And they will do anything to excuse that and pretend otherwise. But again, if the border isn't in the Irish Sea then it is on the island. Perhaps the DUP could simply say that is their hope and do us all a favour.
    That’s a bit better from you. I don’t dispute they may be bowler hatted twats. Or worse. But that doesn’t mean they are not being bounced, into, yes, as Sunak explained, all the wonderful benefits of being in the EU single market, but at the costs of whilst they want to remain part of the United Kingdom, they will have EU law imposed upon them without being able to do anything about it, so they divulge in the coming years from mainland UK and closer to ROI.

    Let me put it like this. It’s like watching something murdered in front of you, but you are justifying it as okay on basis they weren’t a very good person. Where’s your sense of morality and fairness?
    Morality and fairness? NI voted to remain in the EU. NI supported the protocol. NI supports the WF. What is fair about these luddite deniers of democracy trying to impose a minority view on the majority?

    Again again, the alternative solution is that a hard border is imposed on the island and very likely the resumption of a civil war. So when the DUP stand up for what you consider "democracy" it is war being better than the majority being allowed to get their way.

    The DUP - and hardline unionism - deserves to die. Being "bounced" into something most people voted for is better than being "bounced" into civil war. Even if that means a risk of their party no longer holding the whip hand.
    This is very honest from you. You admit to wanting them and what they stand for gone, on basis they are not very nice. Which of course isn’t democratic from you, more like fascist isn’t it?

    “what you consider "democracy"”
    Yes I do consider tolerating a minority view as important to democracy. Democracy is cultural isn’t it? Democracy in UK only works for example, where their winners choose not to initiate pogroms on the losers. Democracy cannot be where a majority refuse to listen to strongly held minority viewpoints, or it can’t be democracy - people won’t have a genuine voice in it, they would be locked out.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    But Labour is on 45% in both?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    I know it's not the current topic but the NYPD are getting ready for tomorrow

    Robert Costa

    @costareports
    Steel barricades arriving outside Manhattan Criminal Court @CBSNews

    https://twitter.com/Shteyngart/status/1637822153327271937
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,078
    edited March 2023
    @MikeSmithson , I'm genuinely interested. Do you have any links to the meeting?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Well, they have the Labour vote share exactly the same.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Andy_JS said:

    35% is the best Tory score for a long time.

    An 8% leap feels very much an outlier but it makes sense that a sane Tory party is recovering some votes.
  • .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
    I can read, you know ...

    That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
    Oops. It missed out my final line.

    Remember what Sir Bob Worcester told us all.

    Watch the share of the vote not the lead.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    edited March 2023

    .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
    I can read, you know ...

    That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
    As an even more expert psephologist I can declare Labour won’t get as high a PV as 45% at the next election. Nobody ever does.
  • One in every twenty polls is an outlier.

    All eyes on Redfield & Wilton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited March 2023

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    My goodness, 35% would be 7% better than the 28% the Tories got in the 2019 local elections.

    They might even make some gains in May then, especially from the LDs and Independents, albeit with some losses to Labour
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    edited March 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    35% is the best Tory score for a long time.

    Most sensible looking Tory governmment for a long time might have something to do with it.

    As I have reported on here, on the doorsteps there is no love for Labour. Plenty of Tories sitting on their arses, waiting to have a reason to vote for them still...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited March 2023

    One in every twenty polls is an outlier.

    All eyes on Redfield & Wilton.

    ...and all that good work turns to dust after Johnson's implausible yet ultimately successful defence on Wednesday.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
    I can read, you know ...

    That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
    As an even more expert psephologist I can declare Labour won’t get as high a PV as 45% at the next election.
    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?

    He became a Voodoo Pole!

    (I thank you!)
  • Detail of the statement bit more nuanced than headlines. But the fundamental grievance is that EU law shouldn't apply at all in NI without consent. A very high bar, which wasn't explicitly part of their 7 tests. I sympathise with their concerns but...(1/3)

    They should have been clear there weren't 7 tests but 1 and its pretty much impossible one to meet with any form of the protocol. Ultimately the implication is DUP will never back any form of the protocol in NI (2/3)

    Which then leaves them two choices either they want a hard border on island of Ireland or they want all UK in SM & CU (though May backstop came close & they rejected that). They should be clear of which of these they want to see. (3/3)


    https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1637813198941220864?s=20

    Not sure if the DUP are now to be pitied or just laughed at. Having passed the Demographic Event Horizon they find themselves the second party to Sinn Fein, which means that they have to refuse to convene Stormont unless a future election restores them to primacy.

    They cling to the idea that they are the democratic voice of NI - and they no longer are. Once the election does come I suspect their vote will collapse, with an even bigger movement to pro-sanity parties like Alliance and the UUP, with their biggest bowler-hatted twats heading to TUV if they haven't done already.

    If the deal was terrible for NI then perhaps some would give them some credit for their absolutism. Yet the deal is mega for NI and the majority they claim to be representing can see this and say so very clearly.

    In the bin they go.
    As rude and ignorant a post as one ever posted.

    For people to dislike Brexit, and love every little win over it, nothing necessarily wrong in that. But where a hatred detaches someone from reality, to where you can no longer be fair and honest where it is due, that is quite wrong.

    You saying there is a real working handbrake in this deal?

    You saying the WF allowing new EU law and regulation north of the border the same as south of the border, and so very different than mainland UK, isn’t something for a Northern Ireland Unionist party to be concerned about?
    Always one of life's highlights being branded rude and ignorant by your good self. I called the DUP and their voters "bowler-hatted twats" - you aren't making a point by calling something that was deliberately rude as rude.

    Of course there is no handbrake. The DUP refuse to reconvene Stormont as they will not serve under Sinn Fein. And they will do anything to excuse that and pretend otherwise. But again, if the border isn't in the Irish Sea then it is on the island. Perhaps the DUP could simply say that is their hope and do us all a favour.
    That’s a bit better from you. I don’t dispute they may be bowler hatted twats. Or worse. But that doesn’t mean they are not being bounced, into, yes, as Sunak explained, all the wonderful benefits of being in the EU single market, but at the costs of whilst they want to remain part of the United Kingdom, they will have EU law imposed upon them without being able to do anything about it, so they divulge in the coming years from mainland UK and closer to ROI.

    Let me put it like this. It’s like watching something murdered in front of you, but you are justifying it as okay on basis they weren’t a very good person. Where’s your sense of morality and fairness?
    Morality and fairness? NI voted to remain in the EU. NI supported the protocol. NI supports the WF. What is fair about these luddite deniers of democracy trying to impose a minority view on the majority?

    Again again, the alternative solution is that a hard border is imposed on the island and very likely the resumption of a civil war. So when the DUP stand up for what you consider "democracy" it is war being better than the majority being allowed to get their way.

    The DUP - and hardline unionism - deserves to die. Being "bounced" into something most people voted for is better than being "bounced" into civil war. Even if that means a risk of their party no longer holding the whip hand.
    This is very honest from you. You admit to wanting them and what they stand for gone, on basis they are not very nice. Which of course isn’t democratic from you, more like fascist isn’t it?

    “what you consider "democracy"”
    Yes I do consider tolerating a minority view as important to democracy. Democracy is cultural isn’t it? Democracy in UK only works for example, where their winners choose not to initiate pogroms on the losers. Democracy cannot be where a majority refuse to listen to strongly held minority viewpoints, or it can’t be democracy - people won’t have a genuine voice in it, they would be locked out.
    Yes. I am the fascist. How observant you are!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    Andy_JS said:

    New seats forecast from UKPollingReport.

    Lab 359
    Con 197

    https://pollingreport.uk/seats

    359 seats seems a bit low for a predicted vote share of 46%.

    Labour seats coming down. Carries on like this, we'll be at the point where they are getting asked "Who will you govern with?"
  • HYUFD said:

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    My goodness, 35% would be 7% better than the 28% the Tories got in the 2019 local elections.

    They might even make some gains in May then, especially from the LDs and Independents, albeit with some losses to Labour
    I would suggest you do not get over enthusiastic yet
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    What's happened in the last week that could have put 8 points on the Tory share?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    35% is the best Tory score for a long time.

    An 8% leap feels very much an outlier but it makes sense that a sane Tory party is recovering some votes.
    There have been Deltapolls every week for a while; since the start of February they have had the Conservative share going 29-28-28-31-31-27-35. So it looks a bit like last week was on the low side, maybe this week is a bit toppy?

    If the real answer is Conservatives on 31 or 32ish, it's consistent with the recent numbers and a bit better than John Major was doing across 1995 as a whole, if ICM are to be believed.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    That if Remainers had accepted defeat, May would have (to coin a phrase) got Brexit done, then Boris would never have become PM and Dorries would never have been in the Cabinet.

    I thought that was quite obvious, but apparently not.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504

    .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
    I can read, you know ...

    That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
    As an even more expert psephologist I can declare Labour won’t get as high a PV as 45% at the next election.
    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?

    He became a Voodoo Pole!

    (I thank you!)
    Stop skirting the issues


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
    I can read, you know ...

    That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
    As an even more expert psephologist I can declare Labour won’t get as high a PV as 45% at the next election. Nobody ever does.
    Boris' 42.4% was a reasonable stab at it....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,091
    If not even Dan Hodges would buy it...

    On Boris. The issue isn't whether he lied about breaking the rules. The issue is his Claude Rains statement at PMQS. He said he was shocked and angry to hear about cheese and wine parties, after the Stratton video emerged. But we now know he'd personally attended this event.

    Number of people saying "this event didn't break the rules". It did break the rules. People were fined for it. It's just that for some reason Boris wasn't fined for it. But as I say, that's not the issue. The issue is Boris claimed to be shocked and angry at these sort of events.


    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1637747109263728649?cxt=HHwWkoCz-bKUubotAAAA
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058

    One in every twenty polls is an outlier.

    All eyes on Redfield & Wilton.

    ...and all that good work turns to dust after Johnson's implausible yet ultimately successful defence on Wednesday.
    *If* Trump is arrested tomorrow (which he probably won't to be fair), it will dominate the news for awhile and drown out Boris and his brilliant "I didn't do anything wrong, and if I did it's not my fault, and if it is Sue Gray is a Trot so I'm innocent anyway" defence.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    .

    -5 and +8 is quite some movement lol...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited March 2023
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    A Remain leaving MPs fought to stop Brexit (eg voting May's Deal down)
    B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
    C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
    D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
    E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)

    If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564

    One in every twenty polls is an outlier.

    But when you get five in a row....!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,091
    eek said:

    I know it's not the current topic but the NYPD are getting ready for tomorrow

    Robert Costa

    @costareports
    Steel barricades arriving outside Manhattan Criminal Court @CBSNews

    https://twitter.com/Shteyngart/status/1637822153327271937

    1. This is a witchhunt!
    2. Even though it isn't a witchhunt, it's a mistake as it will help the GOP
    3. No man is above the law
    4. Lynch him!

    People can pick and choose to save time.
  • Redfield

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster VI (19 March):

    Labour 47% (-1)
    Conservative 26% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Reform UK 5% (-1)
    SNP 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 12 March

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    kinabalu said:

    What's happened in the last week that could have put 8 points on the Tory share?

    Relief they actually managed to produce a budget without driving the economy off a cliff?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    .

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    As an expert psephologist, I can conclusively and definitively declare that one, or both, of the above are utterly wrong. ;)
    Both have Labour on 45%.
    I can read, you know ...

    That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
    As an even more expert psephologist I can declare Labour won’t get as high a PV as 45% at the next election. Nobody ever does.
    Boris' 42.4% was a reasonable stab at it....
    May’s 42.3% and Corbyn’s 40% wasn’t far off either.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    edited March 2023

    Redfield

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster VI (19 March):

    Labour 47% (-1)
    Conservative 26% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Reform UK 5% (-1)
    SNP 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 12 March

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    And.... after all the excitement of People Polling and DeltaPoll, RWS says... No Change! :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Redfield

    Labour leads by 21%.

    Westminster VI (19 March):

    Labour 47% (-1)
    Conservative 26% (-1)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
    Green 6% (+1)
    Reform UK 5% (-1)
    SNP 4% (+1)
    Other 2% (+1)

    Changes +/- 12 March

    redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…

    BROKEN, SLEAZY LABOUR AND TORIES (AND REFORM) ON THE SLIDE!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    That if Remainers had accepted defeat, May would have (to coin a phrase) got Brexit done, then Boris would never have become PM and Dorries would never have been in the Cabinet.

    I thought that was quite obvious, but apparently not.
    That is the question, and we can't know without a time machine.

    There are those who contend that, had 2016 Remainers got behind May's deal, it would have got through Parliament and all would have been well.

    There are others who contend that would have made her the Ramsay MacDonald of her age, the true believers would have condemned it as "not a true Brexit" and that she would have been no-confidenced by the parliamentary Conservative party faster than you can say "Michel Barnier".

    Like I say, we will never know without a time machine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,091
    DavidL said:

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    Astonishing differences again. 15 percentage points on the Conservative score. Really hard to understand.
    The high school is what they'll get if they defend Boris, the latter is what will happen if they leave him to him his fate.

    Explains Nadine.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    kinabalu said:

    What's happened in the last week that could have put 8 points on the Tory share?

    Previous poll a bit of an outlier one way and this poll a bit of an outlier the other.

    Remember the maxim: if a poll result is interesting, it's probably wrong.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    A Remain leaving MPs fought to stop Brexit (eg voting May's Deal down)
    B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
    C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
    D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
    E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)

    If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
    That's a chain of events not of responsibility.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    That if Remainers had accepted defeat, May would have (to coin a phrase) got Brexit done, then Boris would never have become PM and Dorries would never have been in the Cabinet.

    I thought that was quite obvious, but apparently not.
    That is the question, and we can't know without a time machine.

    There are those who contend that, had 2016 Remainers got behind May's deal, it would have got through Parliament and all would have been well.

    There are others who contend that would have made her the Ramsay MacDonald of her age, the true believers would have condemned it as "not a true Brexit" and that she would have been no-confidenced by the parliamentary Conservative party faster than you can say "Michel Barnier".

    Like I say, we will never know without a time machine.
    If Remainers had conceded defeat, May would quite possibly have got a different deal.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    A Remain leaving MPs fought to stop Brexit (eg voting May's Deal down)
    B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
    C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
    D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
    E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)

    If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
    That's a chain of events not of responsibility.
    Indeed so. "X wouldn't have happened if Y" is a chain of events.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    OGH is offering some sound relationship advice.

    If you are buying flowers for your loved one make sure you remove the "reduced for clearance" tag

    https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1637830857170857984?s=46&t=jkvRY6JsvE1I-2t12-QBqQ

    Ha ha. Great advice but also chocolates or any other gift.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Driver said:

    kinabalu said:

    What's happened in the last week that could have put 8 points on the Tory share?

    Previous poll a bit of an outlier one way and this poll a bit of an outlier the other.

    Remember the maxim: if a poll result is interesting, it's probably wrong.
    Ok. I'll take 32 then. That sounds more reasonable.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    I’m interviewing other seals for a seal TV channel on the night of the locals. Everyone else has a niche channel now so why shouldn’t we?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,564
    Naughty voters, toying with pollsters...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited March 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    A Remain leaving MPs fought to stop Brexit (eg voting May's Deal down)
    B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
    C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
    D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
    E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)

    If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
    That's a chain of events not of responsibility.
    The difference being what, exactly? If you're too stupid to see the obvious consequences of your actions, you aren't responsible? If I shoot myself playing Russian Roulette, can I avoid responsibility because it's the bullet's fault?

    Both sides decided compromise was out and went for winner-takes-all. It was obvious at the time (and much commented on here) that one side was going to look like geniuses and the other was going to get a nasty shock.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    kinabalu said:

    Driver said:

    kinabalu said:

    What's happened in the last week that could have put 8 points on the Tory share?

    Previous poll a bit of an outlier one way and this poll a bit of an outlier the other.

    Remember the maxim: if a poll result is interesting, it's probably wrong.
    Ok. I'll take 32 then. That sounds more reasonable.
    Yeah, I don't believe 35, but I don't believe 25 either - at least, not for an actual general election vote share.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    DougSeal said:

    I’m interviewing other seals for a seal TV channel on the night of the locals. Everyone else has a niche channel now so why shouldn’t we?

    Polar seals presumably.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    AP - Trump calls for protests, but even supporters dismiss idea

    Former President Donald Trump’s calls for protests ahead of his anticipated indictment in New York have generated mostly muted reactions from supporters, with even some of his most ardent loyalists dismissing the idea as a waste of time or a law enforcement trap.

    The ambivalence raises questions about whether Trump, though a leading Republican contender in the 2024 presidential race who retains a devoted following, still has the power to mobilize far-right supporters the way he did more than two years ago before the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. It also suggests that the hundreds of arrests that followed the Capitol riot, not to mention the convictions and long prison sentences, may have dampened the desire for repeat mass unrest.

    Still, law enforcement in New York is continuing to closely monitor online chatter warning of protests and violence if Trump is arrested, with threats varying in specificity and credibility, four officials told The Associated Press. Mainly posted online and in chat groups, the messages have included calls for armed protesters to block law enforcement officers and attempt to stop any potential arrest, the officials said.

    Around the time the Manhattan courthouse complex opened Monday morning, a New York Police Department truck began dropping off dozens of portable metal barricades that could be used to block off streets or sidewalks.

    The New York Young Republican Club has announced plans for a protest at an undisclosed location in Manhattan on Monday, and incendiary but isolated posts surfaced on fringe social media platforms from supporters calling for an armed confrontation with law enforcement at Trump’s Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago.

    But nearly two days after Trump claimed on his Truth Social platform that he expected to be arrested on Tuesday and exhorted followers to protest, there were few signs his appeal had inspired his supporters to organize and rally around an event like the Jan. 6 gathering. In fact, a prominent organizer of rallies that preceded the Capitol riot posted on Twitter that he intended to remain on the sidelines.

    Ali Alexander, who as an organizer of the “Stop the Steal” movement staged rallies to promote Trump’s baseless claims that Democrats stole the 2020 election from him, warned Trump supporters that they would be “jailed or worse” if they protested in New York City.

    “You have no liberty or rights there,” he tweeted.

    One of Alexander’s allies in the “Stop the Steal” campaign was conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, who amplified the election fraud claims on his Infowars show. Alexander posted that he had spoken to Jones and said that neither of them would be protesting this time around.

    “We’ve both got enough going on fighting the government,” Alexander wrote. “No billionaire is covering our bills.”

    https://apnews.com/article/trump-indictment-new-york-jan-6-protest-f19306253133d9dacd65667bd5b4650c
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    Seems unlikely that both are on the money.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    kinabalu said:

    What's happened in the last week that could have put 8 points on the Tory share?

    Ahem

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4340829#Comment_4340829

    It's interesting to see what the decay factor in loathing for the Cons, specifically Johnson's and Truss' administrations, will be.

    Although it is still the Cons and they do need to be taught a lesson at not being shit these past few years, nevertheless there is a new approach.

    Inflation is subsiding, the strikes are being settled, it seems that the people in charge aren't lunatics...

    All this as you say could mean much less of a shellacking than otherwise might have been the case.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Was struck by this line from the Washington Post...

    "Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies..."

    Whether its because or despite of Brexit, a left leaning American newspaper instinctively separates Britain as a leader apart from the rest of NATO.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Politico.com - DeSantis says he won’t get involved with Trump’s potential indictment ‘in any way’
    Under Florida law, the governor can intervene in an extradition matter if it is contested.

    TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday told reporters he won’t get involved in Donald Trump’s potential extradition if the former president is indicted by the Manhattan district attorney.

    In his first comments on Trump’s likely indictment, DeSantis said he only knew about “rumors” of a pending arrest of Trump related to an investigation into payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election cycle.

    “I have no interest in getting involved in some type of manufactured circus by some Soros DA,” said DeSantis, making a reference to billionaire donor George Soros’s support of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. “He’s trying to do a political spectacle … I’ve got real issues I’ve got to deal with here in the state of Florida.”

    “We’re not getting involved in it in any way,” he said.

    Under Florida law, the governor can intervene in an extradition matter if it is contested. But Trump’s lawyers have told media outlets that the president would likely surrender if he is indeed indicted. . . .

    Over the last two days, Trump allies have repeatedly zinged DeSantis for failing to jump to Trump’s defense like other supporters of the president, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. They have urged him to use his power as governor since Trump is a Florida resident.

    Even after DeSantis’ Monday news conference, Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, attacked DeSantis on Twitter, posting: “So DeSantis thinks that Dems weaponizing the law to indict President Trump is a ‘manufactured circus’ & isn’t a ‘real issue’ Pure weakness. Now we know why he was silent all weekend.” . . .

    Like other Republicans, DeSantis during a Monday press conference on new legislative initiatives sharply criticized [Manhattan DA Melvin] Bragg. He said the prosecutor’s decision to investigate Trump instead of battling crime in New York City was an example of a “political agenda” that showed that Bragg was “weaponizing” his office.

    “These Soros district attorneys are a menace to society,” he said . . .But DeSantis also drew some laughter from the crowd assembled for his Panama City [Florida] press conference when he expressed puzzlement over the pending indictment.

    “I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair,” DeSantis said.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/20/desantis-wont-involved-trump-indictment-extradition-00087851

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    DavidL said:

    Election Maps UK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (-5)
    CON: 35% (+8)
    LDM: 7% (-2)
    SNP: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (=)
    RFM: 3% (-1)

    Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
    Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.

    And for contrast

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 45% (+3)
    CON: 20% (-3)
    GRN: 13% (+3)
    LDM: 9% (+1)
    RFM: 6% (-1)
    SNP: 5% (+1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
    Changes w/ 8 Mar.

    Astonishing differences again. 15 percentage points on the Conservative score. Really hard to understand.
    Too small a sample, plus different methodology for weighting. All data is useful, but in isolation may appear odd.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    edited March 2023
    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    A Remain leaving MPs fought to stop Brexit (eg voting May's Deal down)
    B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
    C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
    D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
    E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)

    If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
    That's a chain of events not of responsibility.
    The difference being what, exactly? If you're too stupid to see the obvious consequences of your actions, you aren't responsible? If I shoot myself playing Russian Roulette, can I avoid responsibility because it's the bullet's fault?

    Both sides decided compromise was out and went for winner-takes-all. It was obvious at the time (and much commented on here) that one side was going to look like geniuses and the other was going to get a nasty shock.
    Let's suppose that May had got the support of former remainers and got a better Brexit deal. (Though I would be interested to know what such a deal would have looked like and why the EU would have signed it.)

    Would that have stopped Boris Johnson wanting to be Prime Minister and using the unhappiness of those who weren't happy with any such deal to get into Number Ten?

    Even if the chain ABCDE hadn't happened, the chain FGHIE was still likely. Different path, same destination.

    Remember this is Boris Johnson we're talking about.

    Only one side in the 2016 debate decided to have Johnson as a figurehead and Cummings as a brain; they don't get to complain that the other side didn't save them from the consequences of those decisions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    No shortage of polls atm.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    WillG said:

    Was struck by this line from the Washington Post...

    "Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies..."

    Whether its because or despite of Brexit, a left leaning American newspaper instinctively separates Britain as a leader apart from the rest of NATO.


    If you see two entities walking closely together, it's often a human and a dog. Then one has to consider who is holding the lead - the owner or the poodle. UK is dependent on the US in major areas such as Trident.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    I think Trump is a solid Lay for Rep Nominee at 1.95 with SMarkets. (1.99 with BF.)

    I've taken most of it but there is a bit left.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    A Remain leaving MPs fought to stop Brexit (eg voting May's Deal down)
    B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
    C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
    D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
    E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)

    If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
    That's a chain of events not of responsibility.
    The difference being what, exactly? If you're too stupid to see the obvious consequences of your actions, you aren't responsible? If I shoot myself playing Russian Roulette, can I avoid responsibility because it's the bullet's fault?

    Both sides decided compromise was out and went for winner-takes-all. It was obvious at the time (and much commented on here) that one side was going to look like geniuses and the other was going to get a nasty shock.
    Let's suppose that May had got the support of former remainers and got a better Brexit deal. (Though I would be interested to know what such a deal would have looked like and why the EU would have signed it.)

    Would that have stopped Boris Johnson wanting to be Prime Minister and using the unhappiness of those who weren't happy with any such deal to get into Number Ten?

    Even if the chain ABCDE hadn't happened, the chain FGHIE was still likely. Different path, same destination.

    Remember this is Boris Johnson we're talking about.

    Only one side in the 2016 debate decided to have Johnson as a figurehead and Cummings as a brain; they don't get to complain that the other side didn't save them from the consequences of those decisions.
    Wouldn't have stopped him trying. But he probably wouldn't have succeeded.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited March 2023
    WillG said:

    Was struck by this line from the Washington Post...

    "Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies..."

    Whether its because or despite of Brexit, a left leaning American newspaper instinctively separates Britain as a leader apart from the rest of NATO.

    Not because WaPo or most Americans see Britain as a "leader" but rather because we believe that UK is more closely aligned AND reliable ally than the rest of NATO, with possible exception of Canada.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Carnyx said:

    WillG said:

    Was struck by this line from the Washington Post...

    "Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies..."

    Whether its because or despite of Brexit, a left leaning American newspaper instinctively separates Britain as a leader apart from the rest of NATO.


    If you see two entities walking closely together, it's often a human and a dog. Then one has to consider who is holding the lead - the owner or the poodle. UK is dependent on the US in major areas such as Trident.
    An analogy that falls down when you consider that the UK both led the US to get involved in Libya and stopped the US getting involved in Syria.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    DougSeal said:

    I’m interviewing other seals for a seal TV channel on the night of the locals. Everyone else has a niche channel now so why shouldn’t we?

    Polar seals presumably.
    Easter seals?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Off topic, but I thought Cyclefree (and others) might appreciate this example from a George Will column: "Police unions, too, win contracts with thick layers of protections to shield substandard performers from accountability. Of the approximately 2,600 complaints the Minneapolis Police Department received in the decade before the murder of George Floyd, 12 led to discipline, the most severe being a 40-hour suspension. In 2017, a Post report on 37 large cities’ policing found a dismissal rate of 130 officers a year out of 91,000. Seventy percent of San Antonio officers fired for cause from 2006 to 2017 were rehired after contractually mandatory arbitration."
    source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/08/public-unions-harm-schools-police-government/

    Will, relying on a book by Philip K. Howard, is sharply critical of public unions. I would agree to some extent, but think that large bureacracies, public or private, also often protect members and leaders. And think the combination of the public unions and bureacracies is usually worse than either by itself. And still worse when "guild loyalty" makes many inclined to protect their fellow doctors, or policemen, or teachers, or whoever.

    (If there is a simple solution to this problem, especially for the police, it has escaped me.)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    edited March 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    No shortage of polls atm.

    Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.

    Do the pollsters know something we don't?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    We appear to be back to overanalysing meaningless midterm polls based on whether we like them or not.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No shortage of polls atm.

    Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.

    Do the pollster know something we don't?
    Week after a budget?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No shortage of polls atm.

    Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.

    Do the pollster know something we don't?
    Consistent thing in all the polls, Starmer leads Sunak.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    WillG said:

    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Endillion said:

    Dorries in the cabinet was another one of those awesome Brexit dividends.

    Wouldn't have happened if your side had just accepted the result.
    Don’t be that dense.
    Don't be that touchy.
    The argument that nothing that's happened since Brexit is the fault of either those who voted for it, or the governments that have been in power since, is a pretty dire one.
    It's also not the argument that Endillion made...
    Saying that a government appointment by a Brexit PM is the responsibility of those who voted for neither thing is pretty close to it.

    Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
    A Remain leaving MPs fought to stop Brexit (eg voting May's Deal down)
    B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
    C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
    D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
    E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)

    If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
    That's a chain of events not of responsibility.
    The difference being what, exactly? If you're too stupid to see the obvious consequences of your actions, you aren't responsible? If I shoot myself playing Russian Roulette, can I avoid responsibility because it's the bullet's fault?

    Both sides decided compromise was out and went for winner-takes-all. It was obvious at the time (and much commented on here) that one side was going to look like geniuses and the other was going to get a nasty shock.
    Let's suppose that May had got the support of former remainers and got a better Brexit deal. (Though I would be interested to know what such a deal would have looked like and why the EU would have signed it.)

    Would that have stopped Boris Johnson wanting to be Prime Minister and using the unhappiness of those who weren't happy with any such deal to get into Number Ten?

    Even if the chain ABCDE hadn't happened, the chain FGHIE was still likely. Different path, same destination.

    Remember this is Boris Johnson we're talking about.

    Only one side in the 2016 debate decided to have Johnson as a figurehead and Cummings as a brain; they don't get to complain that the other side didn't save them from the consequences of those decisions.
    Wouldn't have stopped him trying. But he probably wouldn't have succeeded.
    There's a reason he didn't win the leadership after Cameron flounced, and it's related to the reason he got kicked out and the reason that the Privs Committee is going to do for him - a solid majority of Tory MPs can't stand him. He only got to be leader because they were desperate and had no other choice.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284

    GIN1138 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    No shortage of polls atm.

    Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.

    Do the pollster know something we don't?
    Consistent thing in all the polls, Starmer leads Sunak.
    Rishi Rich or Dreary Keith! What a choice....
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    WillG said:

    Was struck by this line from the Washington Post...

    "Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies..."

    Whether its because or despite of Brexit, a left leaning American newspaper instinctively separates Britain as a leader apart from the rest of NATO.

    Not because WaPo or most Americans see Britain as a "leader" but rather because we believe that UK is more closely aligned AND reliable ally than the rest of NATO, with possible exception of Canada.
    Yet Canada wasn't called out. Neither were NATO stalwarts like the Baltics. It is because the UK is seen as more important. A junior partner to the US, for sure, but above everyone else.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    A bit late, because I'm catching up (been working all day), but I do get annoyed at the charge of "NIMBY" being levelled at some of us.

    From HYUFD's post this morning:
    HYUFD said:

    pigeon said:

    Nigelb said:

    An apparent inflation rate over 20%. For significant parts of the country, life is becoming increasingly precarious.

    Cost of living: 'I never thought I'd be sofa-surfing at 74'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-stoke-staffordshire-64983317
    ...The letting agency has seen average rents increase from £989 per calendar month in January 2022, to £1,241 this January, yet there is no let-up in demand...

    Housing: if you own outright in this country you have reached the promised land. If you have a mortgage then you keep everything crossed that you don't get laid off - or that your wages don't fall so low that you can no longer afford to service it. If you rent then, unless you're lucky enough to be in social housing with a good provider, you are up the proverbial without a paddle.

    That septuagenarian who's sofa surfing is the harbinger of many millions in decades to come - have nots who couldn't afford to buy will be working til they drop to service extortionate rents, before ending up in hostels or sleeping rough in their 70s and 80s. A wholly avoidable humanitarian crisis, deliberately generated by Government policy.
    If that does happen then there will be (eventually) a left-wing government that turns property rights on its head and probably drives capital flight out of the country and a broader economic collapse.

    The next government must must must do something about the affordability of property.
    Most Conservative councils in the Home counties have produced Local Plans allowing for thousands more new houses to be developed.

    The main opposition to new housing comes from Residents' Associations, Independents and the Liberal Democrats not the Conservatives. See Chesham and Amersham and this ultra Nimby LD councillor

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1634525916125642752?s=20
    Stepping past the cherrypicking of an individual councillor (because you can find examples in every party), let's take a look.

    First, the entire "Conservative councils... have produced Local Plans allowing for thousands more new houses to be developed."
    Well, yes. The housing targets issued aren't up to the councils; they're imposed. And if you don't make a Local Plan to meet them, then it's open season for development, anyway. We've got one here, in the terribly NIMBY Vale of White Horse DC.

    So let's compare figures. I've been to the ONS for numbers of dwellings over time. They've got 2012 to 2021. Over that time, the number of dwellings in England has gone from 23,109,561 to 24,871,916, an increase o 7.6%

    In that time, Epping Forest has gone from 54,700 to 57,186 dwellings, an increase of 4.5%.
    Whilst Vale of White Horse has gone from 51,396 to 61,088, an increase of 18.9%.
    We've gone from quite a bit behind to quite a bit ahead.

    In fact, out of 307 Local Authorities in England in the ONS table, we're third best in terms of housing completions over that time. (Number 1 is a bit skewed stats-wise, because City of London has so few dwellings anyway, but they went from 5,531 to 7,305. Number 2 is Tower Hamlets, which beat us by 0.7%)

    We also have over 6 years land supply in hand, having issued approvals for more than 5,000 more to be built.

    Such NIMBYs we are.
This discussion has been closed.