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We can all predict Nadine’s Tweets at 10pm on May 4th – politicalbetting.com
We can all predict Nadine’s Tweets at 10pm on May 4th – politicalbetting.com
Today has been the annual local election briefing for the media by the Tory elections specialist Lord Hayward and he made what should prove to be a fairly accurate prediction about Culture Secretary Dorries. True to form in that period after the polls have closed on May 4th and we await the results Hayward suggested she’ll be going on TV arguing that the Tories would have done far better if Johnson had still been in post.
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We all enjoyed the amateur left-wing attempt with its crowning glory in the form of Novara Media's live-streamed 2019 General Election night. Their big mistake was that they broadcast the results as they came in.
What our friends at Tory TV shold do differently is simply announce the results that they want. Have the definitely not drunk Ms Dorries interview a succession of Tory MPs about how successful the evening's results are. Speak to the Tory councillors triumphantly elected. Point the camera at glum Labour activists as they lose.
OK so it won't reflect reality, but isn't this so-called "reality" simply a load of whining from leftie remoaner types? The people of Britain support this government and will be voting Conservative, and that is the news that is fit for Tory TV to employ Tory MPs to present.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (-5)
CON: 35% (+8)
LDM: 7% (-2)
SNP: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (=)
RFM: 3% (-1)
Via @DeltapollUK, 17-20 Mar.
Changes w/ 10-13 Mar.
And for contrast
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (+3)
CON: 20% (-3)
GRN: 13% (+3)
LDM: 9% (+1)
RFM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 5% (+1)
Via @PeoplePolling, 17 Mar.
Changes w/ 8 Mar.
Still 19 months to go too.
SKSICWNBPM
Ms Sturgeon says change in leadership was a "moment for renewal" as she urged those vying to succeed her "not to throw the baby out with the bathwater".
. . . In a Beth Rigby interview due to air at 9pm on Sky News, Ms Sturgeon acknowledged the turmoil in her party following a dramatic weekend which saw her husband quit as chief executive amid a row about transparency. . . .
In one of her last interviews as the country's leader, Ms Sturgeon also told Sky News she has not heard whether police want to interview her or her husband as part of a long-running probe into SNP finances. . . .
Ms Sturgeon insisted the probe [of SNP finances] did not play any part in her sudden resignation last month - saying it was a mix of personal and political reasons. . . .
"I've never doubted that I'm doing the right thing. And that's in my core. I feel that in my gut". . .
https://news.sky.com/story/sturgeon-says-leadership-contest-has-been-less-than-edifying-and-urges-candidates-to-protect-ingredients-of-success-12838811
SSI - "less than edifying" is an understatement, for sure. AND who is responsible for THAT?
Are polls you agree with non-outliers? Conversely are polls you disagree with outliers?
Typical. She won't rememeber whether she has heard. Or when. Or who told her. Or didn't....
Still, it's nearly Redfield and Wilton o'clock.
More likely, the Devil's idea of a REALLY sick joke!
Oh, "expert psephologist". Got it.
That doesn't affect what I said. Even if Labour is on 45%, the rest of the polls' findings makes that essentially meaningless.
Lab 359
Con 197
https://pollingreport.uk/seats
359 seats seems a bit low for a predicted vote share of 46%.
“what you consider "democracy"”
Yes I do consider tolerating a minority view as important to democracy. Democracy is cultural isn’t it? Democracy in UK only works for example, where their winners choose not to initiate pogroms on the losers. Democracy cannot be where a majority refuse to listen to strongly held minority viewpoints, or it can’t be democracy - people won’t have a genuine voice in it, they would be locked out.
Robert Costa
@costareports
Steel barricades arriving outside Manhattan Criminal Court @CBSNews
https://twitter.com/Shteyngart/status/1637822153327271937
Remember what Sir Bob Worcester told us all.
Watch the share of the vote not the lead.
All eyes on Redfield & Wilton.
They might even make some gains in May then, especially from the LDs and Independents, albeit with some losses to Labour
Otherwise what exactly is Endillion's point ?
As I have reported on here, on the doorsteps there is no love for Labour. Plenty of Tories sitting on their arses, waiting to have a reason to vote for them still...
He became a Voodoo Pole!
(I thank you!)
If the real answer is Conservatives on 31 or 32ish, it's consistent with the recent numbers and a bit better than John Major was doing across 1995 as a whole, if ICM are to be believed.
If you are buying flowers for your loved one make sure you remove the "reduced for clearance" tag
https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/1637830857170857984?s=46&t=jkvRY6JsvE1I-2t12-QBqQ
I thought that was quite obvious, but apparently not.
On Boris. The issue isn't whether he lied about breaking the rules. The issue is his Claude Rains statement at PMQS. He said he was shocked and angry to hear about cheese and wine parties, after the Stratton video emerged. But we now know he'd personally attended this event.
Number of people saying "this event didn't break the rules". It did break the rules. People were fined for it. It's just that for some reason Boris wasn't fined for it. But as I say, that's not the issue. The issue is Boris claimed to be shocked and angry at these sort of events.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1637747109263728649?cxt=HHwWkoCz-bKUubotAAAA
B That led to Parliamentary gridlock
C Which couldn't be resolved by normal means
D Which meant Johnson got to be PM
E And appointed a Brexiteer-dominated Cabinet (including Dorries)
If A) hadn't happened, then neither would E). Those responsible for A who thought they were being oh-so-clever also have to take responsibility for E.
2. Even though it isn't a witchhunt, it's a mistake as it will help the GOP
3. No man is above the law
4. Lynch him!
People can pick and choose to save time.
Labour leads by 21%.
Westminster VI (19 March):
Labour 47% (-1)
Conservative 26% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 11% (–)
Green 6% (+1)
Reform UK 5% (-1)
SNP 4% (+1)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 12 March
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voti…
There are those who contend that, had 2016 Remainers got behind May's deal, it would have got through Parliament and all would have been well.
There are others who contend that would have made her the Ramsay MacDonald of her age, the true believers would have condemned it as "not a true Brexit" and that she would have been no-confidenced by the parliamentary Conservative party faster than you can say "Michel Barnier".
Like I say, we will never know without a time machine.
Explains Nadine.
Remember the maxim: if a poll result is interesting, it's probably wrong.
Both sides decided compromise was out and went for winner-takes-all. It was obvious at the time (and much commented on here) that one side was going to look like geniuses and the other was going to get a nasty shock.
Former President Donald Trump’s calls for protests ahead of his anticipated indictment in New York have generated mostly muted reactions from supporters, with even some of his most ardent loyalists dismissing the idea as a waste of time or a law enforcement trap.
The ambivalence raises questions about whether Trump, though a leading Republican contender in the 2024 presidential race who retains a devoted following, still has the power to mobilize far-right supporters the way he did more than two years ago before the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. It also suggests that the hundreds of arrests that followed the Capitol riot, not to mention the convictions and long prison sentences, may have dampened the desire for repeat mass unrest.
Still, law enforcement in New York is continuing to closely monitor online chatter warning of protests and violence if Trump is arrested, with threats varying in specificity and credibility, four officials told The Associated Press. Mainly posted online and in chat groups, the messages have included calls for armed protesters to block law enforcement officers and attempt to stop any potential arrest, the officials said.
Around the time the Manhattan courthouse complex opened Monday morning, a New York Police Department truck began dropping off dozens of portable metal barricades that could be used to block off streets or sidewalks.
The New York Young Republican Club has announced plans for a protest at an undisclosed location in Manhattan on Monday, and incendiary but isolated posts surfaced on fringe social media platforms from supporters calling for an armed confrontation with law enforcement at Trump’s Florida estate, Mar-a-Lago.
But nearly two days after Trump claimed on his Truth Social platform that he expected to be arrested on Tuesday and exhorted followers to protest, there were few signs his appeal had inspired his supporters to organize and rally around an event like the Jan. 6 gathering. In fact, a prominent organizer of rallies that preceded the Capitol riot posted on Twitter that he intended to remain on the sidelines.
Ali Alexander, who as an organizer of the “Stop the Steal” movement staged rallies to promote Trump’s baseless claims that Democrats stole the 2020 election from him, warned Trump supporters that they would be “jailed or worse” if they protested in New York City.
“You have no liberty or rights there,” he tweeted.
One of Alexander’s allies in the “Stop the Steal” campaign was conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, who amplified the election fraud claims on his Infowars show. Alexander posted that he had spoken to Jones and said that neither of them would be protesting this time around.
“We’ve both got enough going on fighting the government,” Alexander wrote. “No billionaire is covering our bills.”
https://apnews.com/article/trump-indictment-new-york-jan-6-protest-f19306253133d9dacd65667bd5b4650c
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4340829#Comment_4340829
It's interesting to see what the decay factor in loathing for the Cons, specifically Johnson's and Truss' administrations, will be.
Although it is still the Cons and they do need to be taught a lesson at not being shit these past few years, nevertheless there is a new approach.
Inflation is subsiding, the strikes are being settled, it seems that the people in charge aren't lunatics...
All this as you say could mean much less of a shellacking than otherwise might have been the case.
"Xi’s visit shows sides being taken, with China, Russia and Iran lining up against the United States, Britain and other NATO allies..."
Whether its because or despite of Brexit, a left leaning American newspaper instinctively separates Britain as a leader apart from the rest of NATO.
Under Florida law, the governor can intervene in an extradition matter if it is contested.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday told reporters he won’t get involved in Donald Trump’s potential extradition if the former president is indicted by the Manhattan district attorney.
In his first comments on Trump’s likely indictment, DeSantis said he only knew about “rumors” of a pending arrest of Trump related to an investigation into payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election cycle.
“I have no interest in getting involved in some type of manufactured circus by some Soros DA,” said DeSantis, making a reference to billionaire donor George Soros’s support of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. “He’s trying to do a political spectacle … I’ve got real issues I’ve got to deal with here in the state of Florida.”
“We’re not getting involved in it in any way,” he said.
Under Florida law, the governor can intervene in an extradition matter if it is contested. But Trump’s lawyers have told media outlets that the president would likely surrender if he is indeed indicted. . . .
Over the last two days, Trump allies have repeatedly zinged DeSantis for failing to jump to Trump’s defense like other supporters of the president, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. They have urged him to use his power as governor since Trump is a Florida resident.
Even after DeSantis’ Monday news conference, Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, attacked DeSantis on Twitter, posting: “So DeSantis thinks that Dems weaponizing the law to indict President Trump is a ‘manufactured circus’ & isn’t a ‘real issue’ Pure weakness. Now we know why he was silent all weekend.” . . .
Like other Republicans, DeSantis during a Monday press conference on new legislative initiatives sharply criticized [Manhattan DA Melvin] Bragg. He said the prosecutor’s decision to investigate Trump instead of battling crime in New York City was an example of a “political agenda” that showed that Bragg was “weaponizing” his office.
“These Soros district attorneys are a menace to society,” he said . . .But DeSantis also drew some laughter from the crowd assembled for his Panama City [Florida] press conference when he expressed puzzlement over the pending indictment.
“I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair,” DeSantis said.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/20/desantis-wont-involved-trump-indictment-extradition-00087851
Would that have stopped Boris Johnson wanting to be Prime Minister and using the unhappiness of those who weren't happy with any such deal to get into Number Ten?
Even if the chain ABCDE hadn't happened, the chain FGHIE was still likely. Different path, same destination.
Remember this is Boris Johnson we're talking about.
Only one side in the 2016 debate decided to have Johnson as a figurehead and Cummings as a brain; they don't get to complain that the other side didn't save them from the consequences of those decisions.
If you see two entities walking closely together, it's often a human and a dog. Then one has to consider who is holding the lead - the owner or the poodle. UK is dependent on the US in major areas such as Trident.
I've taken most of it but there is a bit left.
source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/08/public-unions-harm-schools-police-government/
Will, relying on a book by Philip K. Howard, is sharply critical of public unions. I would agree to some extent, but think that large bureacracies, public or private, also often protect members and leaders. And think the combination of the public unions and bureacracies is usually worse than either by itself. And still worse when "guild loyalty" makes many inclined to protect their fellow doctors, or policemen, or teachers, or whoever.
(If there is a simple solution to this problem, especially for the police, it has escaped me.)
Do the pollsters know something we don't?
From HYUFD's post this morning: Stepping past the cherrypicking of an individual councillor (because you can find examples in every party), let's take a look.
First, the entire "Conservative councils... have produced Local Plans allowing for thousands more new houses to be developed."
Well, yes. The housing targets issued aren't up to the councils; they're imposed. And if you don't make a Local Plan to meet them, then it's open season for development, anyway. We've got one here, in the terribly NIMBY Vale of White Horse DC.
So let's compare figures. I've been to the ONS for numbers of dwellings over time. They've got 2012 to 2021. Over that time, the number of dwellings in England has gone from 23,109,561 to 24,871,916, an increase o 7.6%
In that time, Epping Forest has gone from 54,700 to 57,186 dwellings, an increase of 4.5%.
Whilst Vale of White Horse has gone from 51,396 to 61,088, an increase of 18.9%.
We've gone from quite a bit behind to quite a bit ahead.
In fact, out of 307 Local Authorities in England in the ONS table, we're third best in terms of housing completions over that time. (Number 1 is a bit skewed stats-wise, because City of London has so few dwellings anyway, but they went from 5,531 to 7,305. Number 2 is Tower Hamlets, which beat us by 0.7%)
We also have over 6 years land supply in hand, having issued approvals for more than 5,000 more to be built.
Such NIMBYs we are.