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We can all predict Nadine’s Tweets at 10pm on May 4th – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,879
    edited March 2023

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The comment Len Goodman made years ago about Ann Widdecombe being like snow - fun at the start but after a while you wish it would go away - is as true today as then...

    And what is about Widdy, Farage, Tice etc etc that they just can't take YES for an answer?
    Ultimately, because giving them what they say they want (the UK not being in the EU) doesn't give them what they fundamentally want (youth, potency, riches, the ability to lord it over Johny Eurocrat).
    I always had a theory that Farage never really wanted us to leave the EU as it would get him off the EU gravy train and out of the limelight.

    The fact he's STILL trying to claim we haven't achieved Brexit and whip up a betrayal narrative when it's patently obvious to everyone that we have Brexited kind of backs up the idea IMO.

    The other alternative is that he's in the back pocket of Bad Vlad... but would Putin really have any time for a moron like him?
    He has time for Trump, so....
    Yeah but Trump had power. He may be a moron but he was able to win a presidential election and become POTUS...

    Farage has never even been able to win a seat at Westminster nevermind get anywhere near genuine power.

    To me Farage is just a tweed-wearing odd-ball. It's hard to see Bad Vlad taking him in any way seriously... but maybe perceptions of The Garage are different abroad to at home?
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've just realised this year will be my 10 year anniversary of working in the City. It's absolutely flown past. I started off wearing a full suit and tie to work everyday and working from 7am to 7pm, 10 years later I work 8am to 5pm and dress pretty casually for work, don't think I've put a tie on for work in at least 5 years. I got a telling off from HR when management were in from Japan and I wasn't wearing a suit or tie but jeans and a t-shirt.

    I wear a suit and tie most days.

    Although I am viewed as amusingly old-fashioned I also get people, including the younger ones, describing me as looking "professional" as a consequence.

    Which I will take.
    For me in part it's a mental thing - I feel more in 'work mode' when I put on a suit.
    I am absolutely ecstatic that the suit is dying off.
    Never looked good in one. Nor liked the compulsion.
    Suits are for weddings and funerals. Those of us not forced to wear the wretched things for work are blessed.

    Excluding weddings and funerals, I think I last wore a tie in 2004.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,995
    edited March 2023
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    The privileges committee won’t be publishing the Bozo defence today .

    The last thing they want is 48 hrs of the fat lying oafs arse licking friends in the media attempting to beatify him .

    I want Johnson gone as much as anyone, but delaying the report by 24 hours will not prevent his supporters from doing everything they can to mitigate the allegations
    If he comes through this without a suspension, does he get an “exonerated bounce”?

    Lula was actually in prison and now a president, for example. All Boris needs to achieve is on a ballot that goes to the membership, and that’s a shoe in, to achieve his Churchillian comeback. It’s not impossible is it?
    If a vote goes to the Members he probably wins. Therefore it is telling he did not put it to them when he could have. Even if Rishi has a shocker of a Locals it is much harder to remove a leader than get on the ballot for a contest. He has 100 MPs who back him even at his lowest ebb, assuming none have eked away. He's need a lot more than that to remove Rishi in order to get himself on a ballot.
    If you’re Boris, why take charge now? Let the other guy manage a narrow loss, and do the fun bit of leading the Tories back to power against a divided government with a slim majority next time around. He’s much more temperamentally suited to opposition where he just has to make some speeches. Plus in the meantime he can make a lot of cash.
    Because he'll be 59 in July?
    I don't see him as the type wanting to put in a shift past retirement age.

    Edit:
    Or even put in a shift.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,047
    MaxPB said:

    I see little comment on the UN shit-the-bed climate report today?

    Basically, if you ask me, all coal-fired plants should be phased out worldwide as a matter of urgency and replaced by gas/nukes/wind. Particularly the reprobates like China.

    It'd make a real dent. Question is our delivery capability if everyone does that at once. But we have to try.

    We've known for 20 years that coal needed to go, in those 20 years we should have been building nuclear power and gen 4 reactors that will run from current nuclear waste for the next 50 years. If we'd started in 2003 the first gen 4 reactors would be in final stage ramp now and ready to connect to the grid.

    It's a failure of the government and our politicians who have put off these decisions for far too long.
    The problem with nuclear is that private companies don't want to take the price risk, which means if you want a substantial nuclear power generation component, you need to guarantee a price to nuclear operators - as we have done with HPC.

    And that's the trade: congratulations you've reduced your carbon footprint, but to get the nuclear power generated you've had to guarantee twice the prevailing price for electricity generation. Now, either that is paid back via higher electricity bills or by higher taxes. Neither of which are notably winning strategies.

    Don't forget, there's never been a merchant nuclear power plant anywhere in the world: the maths simply don't make sense.

    Now, that doesn't mean that the government - looking to diversify energy supplies - shouldn't subsidise a portion of UK electricity production by guaranteeing a price for new nuclear. But if you go above about 15-20% of total supply at high guaranteed prices then you start impacting (a) the willingness of people to invest in other clean technologies (because why bother if you know that half of all demand is going to be met by nuclear on fixed price contracts) and (b) the willingness of people to even sign up to the grid.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,879
    edited March 2023
    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph now updated for all polls in particular including today's Deltapoll and PeoplePolling.

    Latest average lines are Lab 46, Con 29.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Swingback has begun! Probably..
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,100
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The comment Len Goodman made years ago about Ann Widdecombe being like snow - fun at the start but after a while you wish it would go away - is as true today as then...

    And what is about Widdy, Farage, Tice etc etc that they just can't take YES for an answer?
    Ultimately, because giving them what they say they want (the UK not being in the EU) doesn't give them what they fundamentally want (youth, potency, riches, the ability to lord it over Johny Eurocrat).
    I always had a theory that Farage never really wanted us to leave the EU as it would get him off the EU gravy train and out of the limelight.

    The fact he's STILL trying to claim we haven't achieved Brexit and whip up a betrayal narrative when it's patently obvious to everyone that we have Brexited kind of backs up the idea IMO.

    The other alternative is that he's in the back pocket of Bad Vlad... but would Putin really have any time for a moron like him?
    He has time for Trump, so....
    Yeah but Trump had power. He may be a moron but he was able to win a presidential election and become POTUS...

    Farage has never even been able to win a seat at Westminster nevermind get anywhere near genuine power.

    To me Farage is just a tweed-wearing odd-ball. It's to see Bad Vlad taking him in any way seriously... but maybe perceptions of Garage are different abroad to at home?
    Without Farage's leading UKIP and winning lots of MEPs and getting about 10 to 15% in polls after 2010 then Cameron would almost certainly never have proposed an EU referendum and there would never have been Brexit.

    Farage is the man most responsible for Brexit, not Cameron and not Boris either
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,947
    edited March 2023
    biggles said:

    kle4 said:

    nico679 said:

    The privileges committee won’t be publishing the Bozo defence today .

    The last thing they want is 48 hrs of the fat lying oafs arse licking friends in the media attempting to beatify him .

    I want Johnson gone as much as anyone, but delaying the report by 24 hours will not prevent his supporters from doing everything they can to mitigate the allegations
    If he comes through this without a suspension, does he get an “exonerated bounce”?

    Lula was actually in prison and now a president, for example. All Boris needs to achieve is on a ballot that goes to the membership, and that’s a shoe in, to achieve his Churchillian comeback. It’s not impossible is it?
    If a vote goes to the Members he probably wins. Therefore it is telling he did not put it to them when he could have. Even if Rishi has a shocker of a Locals it is much harder to remove a leader than get on the ballot for a contest. He has 100 MPs who back him even at his lowest ebb, assuming none have eked away. He's need a lot more than that to remove Rishi in order to get himself on a ballot.
    If you’re Boris, why take charge now? Let the other guy manage a narrow loss, and do the fun bit of leading the Tories back to power against a divided government with a slim majority next time around. He’s much more temperamentally suited to opposition where he just has to make some speeches. Plus in the meantime he can make a lot of cash.
    I don't think Boris thinks that far ahead. If he did, he would not have found himself mired in so many self made and foreseeable controversies. I cannot believe he is seriously assessing his chances 6-7 years from now against a first term Keir Starmer government.

    There might be a 'bring back Boris' campaign after a Sunak loss, if he retains his own seat, but he's been around in politics a long time, and times are moving on. Very few of the current Cabinet were MPs when Boris became an MP in 2001, many weren't even when he was Mayor in 2008.

    It's all too machiavellian. He has to win his seat, hope the loss for the party is of a level which is easier to recover from in one electoral cycle, he has to hope the composition of the surviving MPs is sympathetic to his rehashing the same old stuff from the the mid to late 2010s, he has to hope Keir doesn't in fact do an ok job, has to hope the economy doensn't rebound, that Refuk don't eat into support, etc etc.

    He's got confidence and plenty of successes. But holding fire now, when he would have won the leadership contest and he (and his backers) believe would have given them a chance of winning, so he can win a post GE contest? Too many variables.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,879
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The comment Len Goodman made years ago about Ann Widdecombe being like snow - fun at the start but after a while you wish it would go away - is as true today as then...

    And what is about Widdy, Farage, Tice etc etc that they just can't take YES for an answer?
    Ultimately, because giving them what they say they want (the UK not being in the EU) doesn't give them what they fundamentally want (youth, potency, riches, the ability to lord it over Johny Eurocrat).
    I always had a theory that Farage never really wanted us to leave the EU as it would get him off the EU gravy train and out of the limelight.

    The fact he's STILL trying to claim we haven't achieved Brexit and whip up a betrayal narrative when it's patently obvious to everyone that we have Brexited kind of backs up the idea IMO.

    The other alternative is that he's in the back pocket of Bad Vlad... but would Putin really have any time for a moron like him?
    He has time for Trump, so....
    Yeah but Trump had power. He may be a moron but he was able to win a presidential election and become POTUS...

    Farage has never even been able to win a seat at Westminster nevermind get anywhere near genuine power.

    To me Farage is just a tweed-wearing odd-ball. It's to see Bad Vlad taking him in any way seriously... but maybe perceptions of Garage are different abroad to at home?
    Without Farage's leading UKIP and winning lots of MEPs and getting about 10 to 15% in polls after 2010 then Cameron would almost certainly never have proposed an EU referendum and there would never have been Brexit.

    Farage is the man most responsible for Brexit, not Cameron and not Boris either
    I'll grant you he did run an effective grass roots insurgency campaign from 2000 to 2015. He's still a tweed wearing fruit cake though.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,537
    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph now updated for all polls in particular including today's Deltapoll and PeoplePolling.

    Latest average lines are Lab 46, Con 29.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The conservatives have been excellent at peaking for spring elections last few years. It was this time last year a couple of polls removed Labours lead completely.

    But then it’s not maintained. They crash in the polls autumn and winter.

    Perhaps Rishi should work to a spring election, not wait till later in the year. Under Starmer Labour are rubbish at these spring elections. In fact under Starmer labour seem rubbish at campaigning for national elections and getting good results in them.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,879
    edited March 2023

    This thread has been recalled like Boris in a few weeks?

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I see little comment on the UN shit-the-bed climate report today?

    Basically, if you ask me, all coal-fired plants should be phased out worldwide as a matter of urgency and replaced by gas/nukes/wind. Particularly the reprobates like China.

    It'd make a real dent. Question is our delivery capability if everyone does that at once. But we have to try.

    We've known for 20 years that coal needed to go, in those 20 years we should have been building nuclear power and gen 4 reactors that will run from current nuclear waste for the next 50 years. If we'd started in 2003 the first gen 4 reactors would be in final stage ramp now and ready to connect to the grid.

    It's a failure of the government and our politicians who have put off these decisions for far too long.
    The problem with nuclear is that private companies don't want to take the price risk, which means if you want a substantial nuclear power generation component, you need to guarantee a price to nuclear operators - as we have done with HPC.

    And that's the trade: congratulations you've reduced your carbon footprint, but to get the nuclear power generated you've had to guarantee twice the prevailing price for electricity generation. Now, either that is paid back via higher electricity bills or by higher taxes. Neither of which are notably winning strategies.

    Don't forget, there's never been a merchant nuclear power plant anywhere in the world: the maths simply don't make sense.

    Now, that doesn't mean that the government - looking to diversify energy supplies - shouldn't subsidise a portion of UK electricity production by guaranteeing a price for new nuclear. But if you go above about 15-20% of total supply at high guaranteed prices then you start impacting (a) the willingness of people to invest in other clean technologies (because why bother if you know that half of all demand is going to be met by nuclear on fixed price contracts) and (b) the willingness of people to even sign up to the grid.
    And even more importantly (c) invest in any high energy manufacturing in a country with high fixed energy costs? Our failure to develop reliable, cheap, domestic supply has created a major discouragement for such investment. There are still days when we are importing more than 15% of our energy through the interconnectors. It is a shameful consequence of utterly inept policy.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,376
    MikeL said:

    Wiki graph now updated for all polls in particular including today's Deltapoll and PeoplePolling.

    Latest average lines are Lab 46, Con 29.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Not quite - there's no blue "dot" for the Con 35% poll.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,995
    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've just realised this year will be my 10 year anniversary of working in the City. It's absolutely flown past. I started off wearing a full suit and tie to work everyday and working from 7am to 7pm, 10 years later I work 8am to 5pm and dress pretty casually for work, don't think I've put a tie on for work in at least 5 years. I got a telling off from HR when management were in from Japan and I wasn't wearing a suit or tie but jeans and a t-shirt.

    I wear a suit and tie most days.

    Although I am viewed as amusingly old-fashioned I also get people, including the younger ones, describing me as looking "professional" as a consequence.

    Which I will take.
    For me in part it's a mental thing - I feel more in 'work mode' when I put on a suit.
    I am absolutely ecstatic that the suit is dying off.
    Never looked good in one. Nor liked the compulsion.
    Suits are for weddings and funerals. Those of us not forced to wear the wretched things for work are blessed.

    Excluding weddings and funerals, I think I last wore a tie in 2004.
    Having gone back into teaching post COVID it has blissfully disappeared.
    The idea that a male would signal his identity as such by wearing a bit of choking fabric round the neck and a coat that makes you sweat in the summer and doesn't keep you warm in winter seems from another age now.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,356
    edited March 2023
    pigeon said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    I've just realised this year will be my 10 year anniversary of working in the City. It's absolutely flown past. I started off wearing a full suit and tie to work everyday and working from 7am to 7pm, 10 years later I work 8am to 5pm and dress pretty casually for work, don't think I've put a tie on for work in at least 5 years. I got a telling off from HR when management were in from Japan and I wasn't wearing a suit or tie but jeans and a t-shirt.

    I wear a suit and tie most days.

    Although I am viewed as amusingly old-fashioned I also get people, including the younger ones, describing me as looking "professional" as a consequence.

    Which I will take.
    For me in part it's a mental thing - I feel more in 'work mode' when I put on a suit.
    I am absolutely ecstatic that the suit is dying off.
    Never looked good in one. Nor liked the compulsion.
    Suits are for weddings and funerals. Those of us not forced to wear the wretched things for work are blessed.

    Excluding weddings and funerals, I think I last wore a tie in 2004.
    Tomorrow I once again get to wear a white bow tie, wing collar, tails, a waistcoat, stripped trousers, a gown and a horse hair wig. It is bizarre. One of the worst bits of the job.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    edited March 2023
    International power politics.

    "Beijing fears that if Russia were to suffer a humiliating defeat in Ukraine, especially if the circumstances of that defeat loosened Putin’s grip on power, an emboldened Washington would turn its full attention to China."

    https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2023/03/xi-jinping-china-russia-desperate-gamble-on-vladimir-putin
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,047
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The comment Len Goodman made years ago about Ann Widdecombe being like snow - fun at the start but after a while you wish it would go away - is as true today as then...

    And what is about Widdy, Farage, Tice etc etc that they just can't take YES for an answer?
    Ultimately, because giving them what they say they want (the UK not being in the EU) doesn't give them what they fundamentally want (youth, potency, riches, the ability to lord it over Johny Eurocrat).
    I always had a theory that Farage never really wanted us to leave the EU as it would get him off the EU gravy train and out of the limelight.

    The fact he's STILL trying to claim we haven't achieved Brexit and whip up a betrayal narrative when it's patently obvious to everyone that we have Brexited kind of backs up the idea IMO.

    The other alternative is that he's in the back pocket of Bad Vlad... but would Putin really have any time for a moron like him?
    These days Vladimir Putin needs all the friends he can get.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,749
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The comment Len Goodman made years ago about Ann Widdecombe being like snow - fun at the start but after a while you wish it would go away - is as true today as then...

    And what is about Widdy, Farage, Tice etc etc that they just can't take YES for an answer?
    Ultimately, because giving them what they say they want (the UK not being in the EU) doesn't give them what they fundamentally want (youth, potency, riches, the ability to lord it over Johny Eurocrat).
    I always had a theory that Farage never really wanted us to leave the EU as it would get him off the EU gravy train and out of the limelight.

    The fact he's STILL trying to claim we haven't achieved Brexit and whip up a betrayal narrative when it's patently obvious to everyone that we have Brexited kind of backs up the idea IMO.

    The other alternative is that he's in the back pocket of Bad Vlad... but would Putin really have any time for a moron like him?
    I suspect Putin has time for any moron who can disrupt the West.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    New thread.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,082
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Rupert Murdoch set to marry for 5th time at 92 to a 66 year old

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/65012754

    What happened to the last wife - did she get bored of him ?
    I thought she cheated on him with Tony Blair?
    You missed out Jerry Hall (4).

    The sequences is Wendi Deng (3) then Jerry Hall now the latest.

    Murdoch has kids with Wendi Deng. Tensions with former kids. Rumoured links with Chinese intelligence and Tony Blair. He divorced her. One assumes a largish settlement.

    jerry Hall divorced him after 6 years. "Irreconcilable differences".
    TBF Murdoch’s romantic affiliations are not top of my list of things to track…

    Murdoch's will certainly will be for most of those mentioned however......
    Nah - it’s all been negotiated and agreed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,334

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    In 2016, Corbyn asked Shami Chakrabarti to write a report on antisemitism in the Labour Party. He then implemented all her recommendations.

    In 2020, Starmer asked Martin Forde to write a report on the vile behaviour of Blairite staff at Labour HQ. And then completely ignored it.

    Pretty much the only recommendation she made was that people not use the words 'Zio' and 'Paki.'

    Which since they should not have been using them anyway, was not exactly a world shattering revelation.

    The rest of her report was a tissue of lies and evasions that even the Daily Telegraph would have blinked at.

    But, I suppose it must be difficult for you to know that you slavishly supported a dangerous racist nutjob.
    Well the EHRC praised the report

    SKS is the one with a heirachy of racism which you turn a blind eye to
    The one he inherited from Corbyn, you mean?
    The one that went on for three years whilst Starmer sat beside Corbyn in the Shadow Cabinet you mean?
    Rather a tired narrative, no? Remind me who was for the most part the disgraced alleged national security risk (Lebedev's yacht) Johnson's Chancellor.

    Neither accusation, against either Starmer or Sunak bears too much scrutiny.
    You're tired of anti-semitism?

    Or just when it is rife in Labour.....
    Although the HOC reported it was less rife in Labour than across society as a whole
    Glory be.

    Have you actually bothered to read and investigate either of the reports you keep selectively quoting?

    And you still have not provided the link you've been asked for. You claimed the EHRC praised the Chakrabarti report. if you want to be believed provide evidence, not bluster and abuse.

    I appreciate that the latter is the Corbynite modus operandi because they're all vile human beings, but I genuinely used to think more highly of you than that.
    Have you actually bothered to read and investigate either of the reports you keep selectively quoting? Yes several times have you?
    Cant you read the report? The EHRC report continually references elements of Chakrabati's report recommendations that it wanted to see fully implemented and they are disappointed to see weren't

    I think you rather destroy your claim that abuse is primarily a Corbynite modus operandi when you say "Corbynites are all vile human beings"

    Get some self awareness.

    As for the Forde report I know it almost word for word as it basically supports my view on matters entirely. I ask you to view what its author has said today. Particularly the fact that Labour under SKS has ignored his hierarchy of racism finding.
    Still no link. And more personal abuse, said without a trace of irony.

    And yes, I've read them, and you're not telling the truth.

    What happened to you John? You used to be an interesting poster even if your views were unlike mine quite left wing. Now you're a bully, a liar, an apologist for bigotry and have a weird obsession with Starmer that makes you sound absolutely unhinged.

    It's actually quite sad to watch.
This discussion has been closed.