Do Manchester United really need Harry Kane when they have Wout Weghorst?
Tottenham Hotspur would want £100 million in one up-front payment to consider selling Harry Kane this summer.
The England captain will enter the final year of his contract at the end of this season and Tottenham will demand such a large fee to deter Manchester United, who have placed Kane, 29, on a shortlist of striker targets. Clubs usually pay transfer fees in instalments to preserve their budget.
Tottenham do not want to sell the forward to a domestic rival and rejected an offer from Manchester City in 2021 worth a guaranteed £75 million, rising to £100 million, when Kane still had three years on his deal.
United believe it will take a bid of £100 million to open talks but Spurs, who say they have never put a price tag on Kane, know United will not want to be involved in lengthy and complicated negotiations because it could hinder their plans to reshape the attack for next season. United also have bad memories of dealing with Tottenham when they signed Dimitar Berbatov in 2008, which contributed to them not pursuing a move for the former Spurs centre back Toby Alderweireld in 2018.
Why on earth would you pay £100m for a player that is approaching the end of their career. Whatever you pay in a transfer fee is going to be a cost you will never recover.
He is 29. Benzema 35, Lewandowski 34 have if anything improved post 30. It isn't far off a fair price for the buying club, perhaps £80-85m is a workable deal for all.
Also not a player who relies on pace, so should stay at the top longer. For instance, Michael Owen’s significant knee injury destroyed his greatest asset.
Yes, that goal vs Argentina in the 98 WC. I thought we'd got the next Maradona. But no.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
The Russians should know this plan well, it’s basically Stalingrad in reverse.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Strangest thing I have seen today. They drive amongst us.
Recalling her "traumatic experience", Jeena Panesar said she lost control of her car in thick fog on a country road, in Swadlincote, Derbyshire, in January.
The 19-year-old said the car skidded, hit a tree and flipped for 50m (164ft), coming to a stop on its roof.
She said doctors told her the claw clip contributed to her serious head injury.
The second-year forensic psychology student, at the University of Derby, said she was returning home from a secondary school placement at about 15:00 GMT on 24 January when the crash happened.
Student has now launched safety advice. "Don't wear hairclips whilst driving"
Nothing about don't drive your car in such a way that you lose control of it, drive into a tree and roll it for 50m like Bond in Casino Royale. Such is the future of forensic psychology. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-64966149
Hey, I went to the UoD for a time, and I've never worn a hair clip! Although I could wear one on my chest hair (#tmi).
A tip that might be more useful: don't wear high heels whilst driving. I don't know this from experience, obvs,
Reading local coverage, another tip might be: don't drive down country roads at 50mph when it's foggy.
50 might be under what she was doing if she rolled that far.
@Sunil_Prasannan - Do you, or any of the other knowledgeable train people (aka geeks) know why engineering work on the Cardiff - Ebbw Vale line would affect trains between Swansea and Fishguard harbour, but not trains between Bristol Parkway and Swansea, and only on the Monday 27th, but not for the other days of the engineering works (25th - 31st)?
It looks to me like a glitch in the database, but I don't know whether to rearrange my travel to avoid the Monday anyway, (pointlessly incurring extra cost and having to take more time off work), or just to go ahead and trust that the train will be there? Predictably all of the people I can talk to on the phone are simply using the National Rail Enquiries website, and so know nothing.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.
Do the pollster know something we don't?
Consistent thing in all the polls, Starmer leads Sunak.
Rishi Rich or Dreary Keith! What a choice....
I must admit, I quite like Rishi. Possibly my favourite ever PM. He really isn't annoying me at all yet, apart from the mild irritation of his voice. But the only PMs not to have an annoying voice were Truss and Brown.
Actually, I've been slightly surprised at how well Rishi has done, especially with the NI Protocol deal, which seems to be the closest we're going to get the giving something to all sides.
Nothing that he has done so far would be enough to change the Tories fate at the next election... but I suspect there are quite a few out there like us who are silently and rather grudgingly impressed with Rishi, especially after trilogy of disaster that was May > Johnson > Truss.
Somewhat grey figure takes over following more colorful predecessors. Oversees sensible Northern Irish deal and improving economy.
The only difference is that Major made a fortune in Fund Management after he was Prime Minister.
Strangest thing I have seen today. They drive amongst us.
Recalling her "traumatic experience", Jeena Panesar said she lost control of her car in thick fog on a country road, in Swadlincote, Derbyshire, in January.
The 19-year-old said the car skidded, hit a tree and flipped for 50m (164ft), coming to a stop on its roof.
She said doctors told her the claw clip contributed to her serious head injury.
The second-year forensic psychology student, at the University of Derby, said she was returning home from a secondary school placement at about 15:00 GMT on 24 January when the crash happened.
Student has now launched safety advice. "Don't wear hairclips whilst driving"
Nothing about don't drive your car in such a way that you lose control of it, drive into a tree and roll it for 50m like Bond in Casino Royale. Such is the future of forensic psychology. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-64966149
Hey, I went to the UoD for a time, and I've never worn a hair clip! Although I could wear one on my chest hair (#tmi).
A tip that might be more useful: don't wear high heels whilst driving. I don't know this from experience, obvs,
Reading local coverage, another tip might be: don't drive down country roads at 50mph when it's foggy.
50 might be under what she was doing if she rolled that far.
Foggy on Jan 24 in the Swadlincote area. Student was from London, so perhaps unfamiliar with country roads in Derbyshire (which are not as deadly as Devon or Fenland, but bad enough).
I don't know on that one. I'm hesitant to draw parallels with the Cardiff killer driver, but there are parallels of a one car accident with loss of control at far too high speed.
A public conversation we need to be having somehow; obvs the newspapers are all over "poor girl - never wear hair clips when your car is driving itself dangerously" (without the "dangerously").
I spun my dad's car off an icy roundabout going too fast 6 weeks after I passed my test. My sister did the same thing to my first car the first time I let her drive it in snow. Both could have killed or hospitalised an innocent third party.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
This is rather enigmatic from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The moon shines in the midst of the sky;the immeasurable vault of heaven seems to have expanded to infinity; the earth is bathed in silver light; the air is warm, voluptuous, and redolent of innumerable sweet scents. A divine night! A magical night! Mykola Hohol 📷@palchyk_online https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1637903081953439744
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
So long as you didn't cite PB opinions as sources you are probably good.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
@Sunil_Prasannan - Do you, or any of the other knowledgeable train people (aka geeks) know why engineering work on the Cardiff - Ebbw Vale line would affect trains between Swansea and Fishguard harbour, but not trains between Bristol Parkway and Swansea, and only on the Monday 27th, but not for the other days of the engineering works (25th - 31st)?
It looks to me like a glitch in the database, but I don't know whether to rearrange my travel to avoid the Monday anyway, (pointlessly incurring extra cost and having to take more time off work), or just to go ahead and trust that the train will be there? Predictably all of the people I can talk to on the phone are simply using the National Rail Enquiries website, and so know nothing.
Somehow I am now on hold with someone who can see different things on different systems and is phoning someone else to attempt a live reconciliation of the two databases. My evenings are as exciting as my work.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Hmmm, I believe a comedy turn has been booked centre-stage for Wednesday which could have an adverse effect on the improved polling.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
@Sunil_Prasannan - Do you, or any of the other knowledgeable train people (aka geeks) know why engineering work on the Cardiff - Ebbw Vale line would affect trains between Swansea and Fishguard harbour, but not trains between Bristol Parkway and Swansea, and only on the Monday 27th, but not for the other days of the engineering works (25th - 31st)?
It looks to me like a glitch in the database, but I don't know whether to rearrange my travel to avoid the Monday anyway, (pointlessly incurring extra cost and having to take more time off work), or just to go ahead and trust that the train will be there? Predictably all of the people I can talk to on the phone are simply using the National Rail Enquiries website, and so know nothing.
Somehow I am now on hold with someone who can see different things on different systems and is phoning someone else to attempt a live reconciliation of the two databases. My evenings are as exciting as my work.
And there *is* a rail replacement bus, so I can still make the ferry! Hurrah. Kinda.
Strangest thing I have seen today. They drive amongst us.
Recalling her "traumatic experience", Jeena Panesar said she lost control of her car in thick fog on a country road, in Swadlincote, Derbyshire, in January.
The 19-year-old said the car skidded, hit a tree and flipped for 50m (164ft), coming to a stop on its roof.
She said doctors told her the claw clip contributed to her serious head injury.
The second-year forensic psychology student, at the University of Derby, said she was returning home from a secondary school placement at about 15:00 GMT on 24 January when the crash happened.
Student has now launched safety advice. "Don't wear hairclips whilst driving"
Nothing about don't drive your car in such a way that you lose control of it, drive into a tree and roll it for 50m like Bond in Casino Royale. Such is the future of forensic psychology. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-64966149
Hey, I went to the UoD for a time, and I've never worn a hair clip! Although I could wear one on my chest hair (#tmi).
A tip that might be more useful: don't wear high heels whilst driving. I don't know this from experience, obvs,
Reading local coverage, another tip might be: don't drive down country roads at 50mph when it's foggy.
50 might be under what she was doing if she rolled that far.
I don't know on that one. I'm hesitant to draw parallels with the Cardiff killer driver, but there are parallels of a one car accident with loss of control at far too high speed.
A public conversation we need to be having somehow; obvs the newspapers are all over "poor girl - never wear hair clips when your car is driving itself dangerously" (without the "dangerously").
I spun my dad's car off an icy roundabout going too fast 6 weeks after I passed my test. My sister did the same thing to my first car the first time I let her drive it in snow. Both could have killed or hospitalised an innocent third party.
I think everyone - if they are honest - will have stories about their driving that comes into the "but for the grace of God..." category. I certainly have. When my Land Rover engine caught fire. When my Land Rover lost all electrics in fog on the tops between Chesterfield and Matlock. When I spun my Land Rover ?360? degrees on slippery roads outside Longcliffe Quarry (*)
Despite my dad continuously saying that when you pass your test, you're still a learner.
It's when people do utterly stupid things, or don't admit they did something wrong. Which is why I don't have much sympathy for Gary Hart. He did something stupid, but always said he was in the right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selby_rail_crash
(*) There are two common factors here: me, and a Land Rover. I loved that car...
Strangest thing I have seen today. They drive amongst us.
Recalling her "traumatic experience", Jeena Panesar said she lost control of her car in thick fog on a country road, in Swadlincote, Derbyshire, in January.
The 19-year-old said the car skidded, hit a tree and flipped for 50m (164ft), coming to a stop on its roof.
She said doctors told her the claw clip contributed to her serious head injury.
The second-year forensic psychology student, at the University of Derby, said she was returning home from a secondary school placement at about 15:00 GMT on 24 January when the crash happened.
Student has now launched safety advice. "Don't wear hairclips whilst driving"
Nothing about don't drive your car in such a way that you lose control of it, drive into a tree and roll it for 50m like Bond in Casino Royale. Such is the future of forensic psychology. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-64966149
Hey, I went to the UoD for a time, and I've never worn a hair clip! Although I could wear one on my chest hair (#tmi).
A tip that might be more useful: don't wear high heels whilst driving. I don't know this from experience, obvs,
Reading local coverage, another tip might be: don't drive down country roads at 50mph when it's foggy.
50 might be under what she was doing if she rolled that far.
I don't know on that one. I'm hesitant to draw parallels with the Cardiff killer driver, but there are parallels of a one car accident with loss of control at far too high speed.
A public conversation we need to be having somehow; obvs the newspapers are all over "poor girl - never wear hair clips when your car is driving itself dangerously" (without the "dangerously").
I spun my dad's car off an icy roundabout going too fast 6 weeks after I passed my test. My sister did the same thing to my first car the first time I let her drive it in snow. Both could have killed or hospitalised an innocent third party.
I think everyone - if they are honest - will have stories about their driving that comes into the "but for the grace of God..." category. I certainly have. When my Land Rover engine caught fire. When my Land Rover lost all electrics in fog on the tops between Chesterfield and Matlock. When I spun my Land Rover ?360? degrees on slippery roads outside Longcliffe Quarry (*)
Despite my dad continuously saying that when you pass your test, you're still a learner.
It's when people do utterly stupid things, or don't admit they did something wrong. Which is why I don't have much sympathy for Gary Hart. He did something stupid, but always said he was in the right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selby_rail_crash
(*) There are two common factors here: me, and a Land Rover. I loved that car...
I've been trying to keep an eye on some reports for some time, which is a little frightening. Especially around injuries on innocent parties, poor eyesight, circumlocution, cars that are responsible for driving themselves in the press, and so on.
There was a statement in a book I read decades ago that "experienced in using roads" starts at half a million miles.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.
Do the pollster know something we don't?
Consistent thing in all the polls, Starmer leads Sunak.
Rishi Rich or Dreary Keith! What a choice....
I must admit, I quite like Rishi. Possibly my favourite ever PM. He really isn't annoying me at all yet, apart from the mild irritation of his voice. But the only PMs not to have an annoying voice were Truss and Brown.
Actually, I've been slightly surprised at how well Rishi has done, especially with the NI Protocol deal, which seems to be the closest we're going to get the giving something to all sides.
Nothing that he has done so far would be enough to change the Tories fate at the next election... but I suspect there are quite a few out there like us who are silently and rather grudgingly impressed with Rishi, especially after trilogy of disaster that was May > Johnson > Truss.
Somewhat grey figure takes over following more colorful predecessors. Oversees sensible Northern Irish deal and improving economy.
The only difference is that Major made a fortune in Fund Management after he was Prime Minister.
Major laid the groundwork but didn’t get any sort of deal sadly, unless you count the Downing Street declaration.
@Sunil_Prasannan - Do you, or any of the other knowledgeable train people (aka geeks) know why engineering work on the Cardiff - Ebbw Vale line would affect trains between Swansea and Fishguard harbour, but not trains between Bristol Parkway and Swansea, and only on the Monday 27th, but not for the other days of the engineering works (25th - 31st)?
It looks to me like a glitch in the database, but I don't know whether to rearrange my travel to avoid the Monday anyway, (pointlessly incurring extra cost and having to take more time off work), or just to go ahead and trust that the train will be there? Predictably all of the people I can talk to on the phone are simply using the National Rail Enquiries website, and so know nothing.
No idea, but railways are complex systems. It might just be available staff: the works mean that trains are in the 'wrong' places, and cannot get to where they are needed for the trains. Or the works disable a necessary set of pointwork or signalling. Or they just want to inconvenience you.
Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.
Do the pollster know something we don't?
Consistent thing in all the polls, Starmer leads Sunak.
Rishi Rich or Dreary Keith! What a choice....
I must admit, I quite like Rishi. Possibly my favourite ever PM. He really isn't annoying me at all yet, apart from the mild irritation of his voice. But the only PMs not to have an annoying voice were Truss and Brown.
Actually, I've been slightly surprised at how well Rishi has done, especially with the NI Protocol deal, which seems to be the closest we're going to get the giving something to all sides.
Nothing that he has done so far would be enough to change the Tories fate at the next election... but I suspect there are quite a few out there like us who are silently and rather grudgingly impressed with Rishi, especially after trilogy of disaster that was May > Johnson > Truss.
Somewhat grey figure takes over following more colorful predecessors. Oversees sensible Northern Irish deal and improving economy.
The only difference is that Major made a fortune in Fund Management after he was Prime Minister.
Major was also the last PM to face a serious assassination attempt.
This is rather enigmatic from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The moon shines in the midst of the sky;the immeasurable vault of heaven seems to have expanded to infinity; the earth is bathed in silver light; the air is warm, voluptuous, and redolent of innumerable sweet scents. A divine night! A magical night! Mykola Hohol 📷@palchyk_online https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1637903081953439744
Reading anything at all into mid-term polls is obviously a mugs game.
But
At what point is the narrative going to shift a bit if Starmer doesn’t completely blow the doors off this May?
He will. Unless he's Corbyn Labour should be making good gains at the locals, even if they go on to lose the GE.
But I reckon if the Tories can get to a more regular 10-15 behind that concern will set in. That's the kind of leader that could be eaten into enough to prevent victory.
This is rather enigmatic from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The moon shines in the midst of the sky;the immeasurable vault of heaven seems to have expanded to infinity; the earth is bathed in silver light; the air is warm, voluptuous, and redolent of innumerable sweet scents. A divine night! A magical night! Mykola Hohol 📷@palchyk_online https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1637903081953439744
Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.
Do the pollster know something we don't?
Consistent thing in all the polls, Starmer leads Sunak.
Rishi Rich or Dreary Keith! What a choice....
I must admit, I quite like Rishi. Possibly my favourite ever PM. He really isn't annoying me at all yet, apart from the mild irritation of his voice. But the only PMs not to have an annoying voice were Truss and Brown.
Actually, I've been slightly surprised at how well Rishi has done, especially with the NI Protocol deal, which seems to be the closest we're going to get the giving something to all sides.
Nothing that he has done so far would be enough to change the Tories fate at the next election... but I suspect there are quite a few out there like us who are silently and rather grudgingly impressed with Rishi, especially after trilogy of disaster that was May > Johnson > Truss.
Somewhat grey figure takes over following more colorful predecessors. Oversees sensible Northern Irish deal and improving economy.
The only difference is that Major made a fortune in Fund Management after he was Prime Minister.
Major was also the last PM to face a serious assassination attempt.
In my local town of St Neots, there's a plaque commemorating the ?last? person to successfully assassinate a PM.
@Sunil_Prasannan - Do you, or any of the other knowledgeable train people (aka geeks) know why engineering work on the Cardiff - Ebbw Vale line would affect trains between Swansea and Fishguard harbour, but not trains between Bristol Parkway and Swansea, and only on the Monday 27th, but not for the other days of the engineering works (25th - 31st)?
It looks to me like a glitch in the database, but I don't know whether to rearrange my travel to avoid the Monday anyway, (pointlessly incurring extra cost and having to take more time off work), or just to go ahead and trust that the train will be there? Predictably all of the people I can talk to on the phone are simply using the National Rail Enquiries website, and so know nothing.
Honest answer - not sure! The Ebbw Vale line is a branch line, and shouldn't interfere with the South Wales main line!
This is rather enigmatic from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The moon shines in the midst of the sky;the immeasurable vault of heaven seems to have expanded to infinity; the earth is bathed in silver light; the air is warm, voluptuous, and redolent of innumerable sweet scents. A divine night! A magical night! Mykola Hohol 📷@palchyk_online https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1637903081953439744
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
And if the government proves itself to be dully competent over the next 18 months voters will be loathe to change for an unproven party promising dull competence. If Labour had spent the last couple of years building a policy platform as to why we should vote for them they'd have a completely impenetrable lead. Since they haven't there is still a route for the Tories to cling on with a 1992 style victory but it requires everything to go right for them.
Supposedly the major hurdles for Rwanda deportations are set to be cleared in the next few weeks before the summer migrant surge. If that's actually the case and not just Tory ramping I think they will get a big boost in the polls for it plus inflation is definitely falling now and even the gloomy OBR are suggesting by the summer workers will be back to real terms pay rises.
The other random factor that I think works for the government is the lack of financial turmoil as some parts of the world enter crisis mode. While it's not necessarily the most noticeable subject if it does explode in the US and Germany with bailouts and taxpayer money being spent while the UK sector just keeps going as normal that will be yet another dull competence point in favour.
Basically Starmer could dull his way into Number 10 against Boris or Liz Truss, I think another 18 months of dull competence by Rishi will make it much more difficult and Rishi may dull his way to a slim majority or workable minority.
Anyone would think we're about to have an election with the number of polls at the moment.
Do the pollster know something we don't?
Consistent thing in all the polls, Starmer leads Sunak.
Rishi Rich or Dreary Keith! What a choice....
I must admit, I quite like Rishi. Possibly my favourite ever PM. He really isn't annoying me at all yet, apart from the mild irritation of his voice. But the only PMs not to have an annoying voice were Truss and Brown.
Actually, I've been slightly surprised at how well Rishi has done, especially with the NI Protocol deal, which seems to be the closest we're going to get the giving something to all sides.
Nothing that he has done so far would be enough to change the Tories fate at the next election... but I suspect there are quite a few out there like us who are silently and rather grudgingly impressed with Rishi, especially after trilogy of disaster that was May > Johnson > Truss.
Somewhat grey figure takes over following more colorful predecessors. Oversees sensible Northern Irish deal and improving economy.
The only difference is that Major made a fortune in Fund Management after he was Prime Minister.
Major was also the last PM to face a serious assassination attempt.
In my local town of St Neots, there's a plaque commemorating the ?last? person to successfully assassinate a PM.
Strangest thing I have seen today. They drive amongst us.
Recalling her "traumatic experience", Jeena Panesar said she lost control of her car in thick fog on a country road, in Swadlincote, Derbyshire, in January.
The 19-year-old said the car skidded, hit a tree and flipped for 50m (164ft), coming to a stop on its roof.
She said doctors told her the claw clip contributed to her serious head injury.
The second-year forensic psychology student, at the University of Derby, said she was returning home from a secondary school placement at about 15:00 GMT on 24 January when the crash happened.
Student has now launched safety advice. "Don't wear hairclips whilst driving"
Nothing about don't drive your car in such a way that you lose control of it, drive into a tree and roll it for 50m like Bond in Casino Royale. Such is the future of forensic psychology. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-64966149
Hey, I went to the UoD for a time, and I've never worn a hair clip! Although I could wear one on my chest hair (#tmi).
A tip that might be more useful: don't wear high heels whilst driving. I don't know this from experience, obvs,
Reading local coverage, another tip might be: don't drive down country roads at 50mph when it's foggy.
50 might be under what she was doing if she rolled that far.
I don't know on that one. I'm hesitant to draw parallels with the Cardiff killer driver, but there are parallels of a one car accident with loss of control at far too high speed.
A public conversation we need to be having somehow; obvs the newspapers are all over "poor girl - never wear hair clips when your car is driving itself dangerously" (without the "dangerously").
I spun my dad's car off an icy roundabout going too fast 6 weeks after I passed my test. My sister did the same thing to my first car the first time I let her drive it in snow. Both could have killed or hospitalised an innocent third party.
I think everyone - if they are honest - will have stories about their driving that comes into the "but for the grace of God..." category. I certainly have. When my Land Rover engine caught fire. When my Land Rover lost all electrics in fog on the tops between Chesterfield and Matlock. When I spun my Land Rover ?360? degrees on slippery roads outside Longcliffe Quarry (*)
Despite my dad continuously saying that when you pass your test, you're still a learner.
It's when people do utterly stupid things, or don't admit they did something wrong. Which is why I don't have much sympathy for Gary Hart. He did something stupid, but always said he was in the right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selby_rail_crash
(*) There are two common factors here: me, and a Land Rover. I loved that car...
I've been trying to keep an eye on some reports for some time, which is a little frightening. Especially around injuries on innocent parties, poor eyesight, circumlocution, cars that are responsible for driving themselves in the press, and so on.
There was a statement in a book I read decades ago that "experienced in using roads" starts at half a million miles.
Forty/fifty years ago, there was a spate of liquid tankers (petrolchemical and chemicals) overturning on roundabouts for *no reason*. At least, no reason they could discern. The tankers were within the speed limits, were well maintained and were being driven sensibly, but they would overturn. Sometimes at relatively low speed.
My dad's company had to help clean up after such a spill. My *guess* would be that it was a combination of the road camber, the trailer's suspension, the roundabout layout, the speed, the baffle layout within the tanker, and the level they were filled to.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Well done.
Many thanks. It’s on the Spanish contribution to Allied victory in the Peninsular War (much greater in fact, than traditional historiography has held).
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
I've no idea, but if they'd decided to do this 8 or so months ago, back when they first started sending 155mm artillery pieces to Ukraine, then extra production would already be underway, and it probably wouldn't have costed as much. Everything is so slow.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
Yes I think they're worried that Rishi's approach of just quietly getting on with stuff is working and Labour have wasted the better part of 3 years saying nothing to voters while the Tory party tore lumps out of itself.
This is rather enigmatic from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The moon shines in the midst of the sky;the immeasurable vault of heaven seems to have expanded to infinity; the earth is bathed in silver light; the air is warm, voluptuous, and redolent of innumerable sweet scents. A divine night! A magical night! Mykola Hohol 📷@palchyk_online https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1637903081953439744
There have been some interesting (for me, at least) videos and articles recently showing what is required to make a shell casing. And it's surprisingly complex.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Congratulations, Sean. I'm sure you'll nail it.
I can't wait to read your full dissertation. I've loved hearing about it so far.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
Yes I think they're worried that Rishi's approach of just quietly getting on with stuff is working and Labour have wasted the better part of 3 years saying nothing to voters while the Tory party tore lumps out of itself.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
And if the government proves itself to be dully competent over the next 18 months voters will be loathe to change for an unproven party promising dull competence. If Labour had spent the last couple of years building a policy platform as to why we should vote for them they'd have a completely impenetrable lead. Since they haven't there is still a route for the Tories to cling on with a 1992 style victory but it requires everything to go right for them.
Supposedly the major hurdles for Rwanda deportations are set to be cleared in the next few weeks before the summer migrant surge. If that's actually the case and not just Tory ramping I think they will get a big boost in the polls for it plus inflation is definitely falling now and even the gloomy OBR are suggesting by the summer workers will be back to real terms pay rises.
The other random factor that I think works for the government is the lack of financial turmoil as some parts of the world enter crisis mode. While it's not necessarily the most noticeable subject if it does explode in the US and Germany with bailouts and taxpayer money being spent while the UK sector just keeps going as normal that will be yet another dull competence point in favour.
Basically Starmer could dull his way into Number 10 against Boris or Liz Truss, I think another 18 months of dull competence by Rishi will make it much more difficult and Rishi may dull his way to a slim majority or workable minority.
The redwall has probably gone back to Labour, the key swing voters at the next general election will likely be those who voted for Blair or LD in 2010 but have voted Conservative since. They will decide whether Rishi is narrowly re elected or Sir Keir ends up PM after the election
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Well done.
Many thanks. It’s on the Spanish contribution to Allied victory in the Peninsular War (much greater in fact, than traditional historiography has held).
I refuse to believe Bernard Cornwell's documentary series on the Peninsula War was incorrect.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Well done.
Many thanks. It’s on the Spanish contribution to Allied victory in the Peninsular War (much greater in fact, than traditional historiography has held).
Are you suggesting that the contribution of the guerillas has been the subject of monkey business?
This is rather enigmatic from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The moon shines in the midst of the sky;the immeasurable vault of heaven seems to have expanded to infinity; the earth is bathed in silver light; the air is warm, voluptuous, and redolent of innumerable sweet scents. A divine night! A magical night! Mykola Hohol 📷@palchyk_online https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1637903081953439744
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
And if the government proves itself to be dully competent over the next 18 months voters will be loathe to change for an unproven party promising dull competence. If Labour had spent the last couple of years building a policy platform as to why we should vote for them they'd have a completely impenetrable lead. Since they haven't there is still a route for the Tories to cling on with a 1992 style victory but it requires everything to go right for them.
Supposedly the major hurdles for Rwanda deportations are set to be cleared in the next few weeks before the summer migrant surge. If that's actually the case and not just Tory ramping I think they will get a big boost in the polls for it plus inflation is definitely falling now and even the gloomy OBR are suggesting by the summer workers will be back to real terms pay rises.
The other random factor that I think works for the government is the lack of financial turmoil as some parts of the world enter crisis mode. While it's not necessarily the most noticeable subject if it does explode in the US and Germany with bailouts and taxpayer money being spent while the UK sector just keeps going as normal that will be yet another dull competence point in favour.
Basically Starmer could dull his way into Number 10 against Boris or Liz Truss, I think another 18 months of dull competence by Rishi will make it much more difficult and Rishi may dull his way to a slim majority or workable minority.
Well, you’ve convinced me. No way SKS is next PM. You guys have it in the bag. Looking forward to another Parliament of the competence your party has shown in spades during this one. And all those since 2010.
I see little comment on the UN shit-the-bed climate report today?
Basically, if you ask me, all coal-fired plants should be phased out worldwide as a matter of urgency and replaced by gas/nukes/wind. Particularly the reprobates like China.
It'd make a real dent. Question is our delivery capability if everyone does that at once. But we have to try.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
And if the government proves itself to be dully competent over the next 18 months voters will be loathe to change for an unproven party promising dull competence. If Labour had spent the last couple of years building a policy platform as to why we should vote for them they'd have a completely impenetrable lead. Since they haven't there is still a route for the Tories to cling on with a 1992 style victory but it requires everything to go right for them.
Supposedly the major hurdles for Rwanda deportations are set to be cleared in the next few weeks before the summer migrant surge. If that's actually the case and not just Tory ramping I think they will get a big boost in the polls for it plus inflation is definitely falling now and even the gloomy OBR are suggesting by the summer workers will be back to real terms pay rises.
The other random factor that I think works for the government is the lack of financial turmoil as some parts of the world enter crisis mode. While it's not necessarily the most noticeable subject if it does explode in the US and Germany with bailouts and taxpayer money being spent while the UK sector just keeps going as normal that will be yet another dull competence point in favour.
Basically Starmer could dull his way into Number 10 against Boris or Liz Truss, I think another 18 months of dull competence by Rishi will make it much more difficult and Rishi may dull his way to a slim majority or workable minority.
The redwall has probably gone back to Labour, the key swing voters at the next general election will likely be those who voted for Blair or LD in 2010 but have voted Conservative since. They will decide whether Rishi is narrowly re elected or Sir Keir ends up PM after the election
Maybe, yet if Rishi does manage to stop the boat crossings this summer by pushing through the Rwanda deportations policy that will stem a lot of the bleeding in the red wall seats. Additionally, the economy is turning around and by the time we get to the autumn statement there is likely to be £40-50bn in unclaimed money for tax cuts and investment in those red wall seats. I could easily see the basic rate being cut to 18p this autumn which would be a big boost to the economy in the run up to the election and I think a reversal of the decision not to take HS2 up to Sheffield is something they might go for as a way of showing they're going to deliver for northern voters rather than just talk about delivering like Boris.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
Yes I think they're worried that Rishi's approach of just quietly getting on with stuff is working and Labour have wasted the better part of 3 years saying nothing to voters while the Tory party tore lumps out of itself.
I think people are underestimating at the moment just how much polls can move in either direction these days, and how fickle voters are.
The Conservatives have suffered serious brand damage but they can still game a coalition of the 50+ age cohort, and are clearly playing a coherent electoral strategy.
Starmer remains what he's always been: a tedious tactical triangulator.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
And if the government proves itself to be dully competent over the next 18 months voters will be loathe to change for an unproven party promising dull competence. If Labour had spent the last couple of years building a policy platform as to why we should vote for them they'd have a completely impenetrable lead. Since they haven't there is still a route for the Tories to cling on with a 1992 style victory but it requires everything to go right for them.
Supposedly the major hurdles for Rwanda deportations are set to be cleared in the next few weeks before the summer migrant surge. If that's actually the case and not just Tory ramping I think they will get a big boost in the polls for it plus inflation is definitely falling now and even the gloomy OBR are suggesting by the summer workers will be back to real terms pay rises.
The other random factor that I think works for the government is the lack of financial turmoil as some parts of the world enter crisis mode. While it's not necessarily the most noticeable subject if it does explode in the US and Germany with bailouts and taxpayer money being spent while the UK sector just keeps going as normal that will be yet another dull competence point in favour.
Basically Starmer could dull his way into Number 10 against Boris or Liz Truss, I think another 18 months of dull competence by Rishi will make it much more difficult and Rishi may dull his way to a slim majority or workable minority.
The redwall has probably gone back to Labour, the key swing voters at the next general election will likely be those who voted for Blair or LD in 2010 but have voted Conservative since. They will decide whether Rishi is narrowly re elected or Sir Keir ends up PM after the election
Maybe, yet if Rishi does manage to stop the boat crossings this summer by pushing through the Rwanda deportations policy that will stem a lot of the bleeding in the red wall seats. Additionally, the economy is turning around and by the time we get to the autumn statement there is likely to be £40-50bn in unclaimed money for tax cuts and investment in those red wall seats. I could easily see the basic rate being cut to 18p this autumn which would be a big boost to the economy in the run up to the election and I think a reversal of the decision not to take HS2 up to Sheffield is something they might go for as a way of showing they're going to deliver for northern voters rather than just talk about delivering like Boris.
I wouldn't look to cut the basic rate. NI would be better, surely.
And I think we better wait and see how the current crisis plays out before getting too excited.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
Who?
You, for one.
You're not going to get your dream-Goddess Truss back.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Well done.
Many thanks. It’s on the Spanish contribution to Allied victory in the Peninsular War (much greater in fact, than traditional historiography has held).
I refuse to believe Bernard Cornwell's documentary series on the Peninsula War was incorrect.
I like the one where Sharpe comes into conflict with a posh officer whilst also contending with a mysterious woman based with the Spanish rebels. In the end he (or his sergeant) contrive to remove said officer, and he avoids punishment because Wellington is ok with him. He doesn’t get together with the woman but it’s clear than in different circumstances they might have.
I see little comment on the UN shit-the-bed climate report today?
Basically, if you ask me, all coal-fired plants should be phased out worldwide as a matter of urgency and replaced by gas/nukes/wind. Particularly the reprobates like China.
It'd make a real dent. Question is our delivery capability if everyone does that at once. But we have to try.
We've known for 20 years that coal needed to go, in those 20 years we should have been building nuclear power and gen 4 reactors that will run from current nuclear waste for the next 50 years. If we'd started in 2003 the first gen 4 reactors would be in final stage ramp now and ready to connect to the grid.
It's a failure of the government and our politicians who have put off these decisions for far too long.
The 359 Labour seats currently being predicted by UKPollingReport include the following:
1. Aylesbury by 1.4% 2. Banbury by 3.3% 3. Basingstoke by 4.0% 4. Bassetlaw by 2.5% 5. Beckenham by 1.8% 6. Burton by 0.2% 7. Chelsea & Fulham by 3.3% 8. Halesowen & Rowley Regis by 1.5% 9. Hemel Hempstead by 1.6% 10.North East Derbyshire by 3.9% 11.North East Somerset by 3.8% 12.North Somerset by 1.7% 13.North Swindon by 0.7% 14.Nuneaton by 0.9% 15.Old Bexley & Sidcup by 9.4% - {this must be a mistake by UKPR} 16.Plymouth Moor View by 0.8% 17.Rochford & Southend East by 3.3% 18.Rugby by 3.5% 19.St Austell & Newquay by 0.3% 20.Stafford by 1.9% 21.Stoke-on-Trent South by 1.5% 22.Stourbridge by 0.3% 23.Telford by 4.4% 24.Worthing West by 2.8%
These are the seats with projected leads of less than 5% over the Conservatives, based on the current opinion polls (with overall vote shares of Lab 46.3%, Con 27.8%).
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
Yes I think they're worried that Rishi's approach of just quietly getting on with stuff is working and Labour have wasted the better part of 3 years saying nothing to voters while the Tory party tore lumps out of itself.
Nice try, gents but the damage has already been done. The voters won't easily forget the last three years let alone the previous decade.
I'll cheerfully concede Sunak is so far an improvement on Truss and Johnson but that's only my nomination for the Damning with Faint Praise Award. There's still at least 18 months to go and plenty can happen.
I'd also venture not only will Starmer and Labour take nothing for granted but they will probably be pleased to see the gap narrow a little to encourage the Labour vote out. There's nothing like a foregone conclusion to make your supporters stay at home.
After five Prime Ministers in fourteen years, there's a fair argument it's now time for a proper change.
John Major was a decent guy and a fair Prime Minister - for all the good it did him.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Well done.
Many thanks. It’s on the Spanish contribution to Allied victory in the Peninsular War (much greater in fact, than traditional historiography has held).
I refuse to believe Bernard Cornwell's documentary series on the Peninsula War was incorrect.
I like the one where Sharpe comes into conflict with a posh officer whilst also contending with a mysterious woman based with the Spanish rebels. In the end he (or his sergeant) contrive to remove said officer, and he avoids punishment because Wellington is ok with him. He doesn’t get together with the woman but it’s clear than in different circumstances they might have.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
And if the government proves itself to be dully competent over the next 18 months voters will be loathe to change for an unproven party promising dull competence. If Labour had spent the last couple of years building a policy platform as to why we should vote for them they'd have a completely impenetrable lead. Since they haven't there is still a route for the Tories to cling on with a 1992 style victory but it requires everything to go right for them.
Supposedly the major hurdles for Rwanda deportations are set to be cleared in the next few weeks before the summer migrant surge. If that's actually the case and not just Tory ramping I think they will get a big boost in the polls for it plus inflation is definitely falling now and even the gloomy OBR are suggesting by the summer workers will be back to real terms pay rises.
The other random factor that I think works for the government is the lack of financial turmoil as some parts of the world enter crisis mode. While it's not necessarily the most noticeable subject if it does explode in the US and Germany with bailouts and taxpayer money being spent while the UK sector just keeps going as normal that will be yet another dull competence point in favour.
Basically Starmer could dull his way into Number 10 against Boris or Liz Truss, I think another 18 months of dull competence by Rishi will make it much more difficult and Rishi may dull his way to a slim majority or workable minority.
The redwall has probably gone back to Labour, the key swing voters at the next general election will likely be those who voted for Blair or LD in 2010 but have voted Conservative since. They will decide whether Rishi is narrowly re elected or Sir Keir ends up PM after the election
Maybe, yet if Rishi does manage to stop the boat crossings this summer by pushing through the Rwanda deportations policy that will stem a lot of the bleeding in the red wall seats. Additionally, the economy is turning around and by the time we get to the autumn statement there is likely to be £40-50bn in unclaimed money for tax cuts and investment in those red wall seats. I could easily see the basic rate being cut to 18p this autumn which would be a big boost to the economy in the run up to the election and I think a reversal of the decision not to take HS2 up to Sheffield is something they might go for as a way of showing they're going to deliver for northern voters rather than just talk about delivering like Boris.
I wouldn't look to cut the basic rate. NI would be better, surely.
And I think we better wait and see how the current crisis plays out before getting too excited.
I'd agree that NI is the better tax to cut as it puts money into the hands of the working population, the issue is that people hear NI cut and associate it to NHS cuts even if NHS spending is rising in real terms. That link between NI and welfare spending still pervades today despite NI not being hypothecated to welfare.
The data tables are as always informative. The 2019 Conservative vote splits 57% Conservative, 16% Labour, 15% Don't Know and 8% Reform. The 2019 Conservative Don't Knows account for 43% of all the DKs.
With the DKs removed, the overall Labour lead is 21 but among men it's 16 and among women 26. Among those aged 65 and over, a 47 point Conservative lead has been wiped out so a 23.5% swing among older voters.
The England only VI is Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrat 12%, Green 6%, Reform 5%. From 2019, that's a swing of 17.5% from Conservative to Labour and a 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
The 238th most marginal Conservative set falls on these numbers suggesting a Conservative Parliamentary party post-election of around 130 MPs.
Mid-term polling.....
Swingback, baby, swingback.
Wishful thinking on your part, more likely.
The Conservatives do seem to be hitting 30% with increasing regularity. Hardly an election-winning figure, but safely out of extinction level.
Which is clearly seriously upsetting some people on here.
Who?
You, for one.
You're not going to get your dream-Goddess Truss back.
Must hurt.
Au contraire. She operates at a higher level of sophistication than any of you realise. She’s Spock, Machiavelli, Einstein and Thatcher wrapped into one.
In 2016, Corbyn asked Shami Chakrabarti to write a report on antisemitism in the Labour Party. He then implemented all her recommendations.
In 2020, Starmer asked Martin Forde to write a report on the vile behaviour of Blairite staff at Labour HQ. And then completely ignored it.
Pretty much the only recommendation she made was that people not use the words 'Zio' and 'Paki.'
Which since they should not have been using them anyway, was not exactly a world shattering revelation.
The rest of her report was a tissue of lies and evasions that even the Daily Telegraph would have blinked at.
But, I suppose it must be difficult for you to know that you slavishly supported a dangerous racist nutjob.
Well the EHRC praised the report
SKS is the one with a heirachy of racism which you turn a blind eye to
The one he inherited from Corbyn, you mean?
As for your other claim, do you have a link? The only EHRC comment I recall on Corbyn's Labour was when they declared them to be a bunch of raging racists. But equally, as Labour had become a poisonous irrelevance under the useless posh git I may just not have noticed.
Mar 1: Sturgeon invited to Scottish Affairs Committee
Mar 14: "Unfortunately, I will be unable to take up your invitation as my diary is full over my final two weeks in office, as I focus on ensuring a smooth transition."
Today: Sturgeon on Loose Women on same day as committee…..
Nicola Sturgeon's Loose Women appearance was at 12.45pm. She then did a speech and Q&A at the RSA at 2.30pm. The Scottish Affairs Committee started at 2.30pm (though start time could have been changed for Nicola Sturgeon, I'm told)
I doubt Labour + Green combined are at near 60% of the electorate.
The Labour-LibDem-Green (LLG) share though has been much more stable than Labour vs Conservative gap. During the period that Labour were level pegging with the Tories it was around 53%, it climbed to around 65-67% at the nadir of Truss and is now generally around 60-64%.
Response to Mike Russell denying members access to amend their votes:
I believe the power lies with the members of the SNP to select their next leader.
There was an amendment to the normal established timeline as detailed in the SNP constitution for a leadership election - creating an inappropriately short time frame for this selection contest.
I do not believe the NEC have had the opportunity to review my proposal fully - nor do I understand the problem with allowing members to change their mind, given the revelations of the weekend.
Allowing members to edit their vote enables the ballot to continue on its current timeline, while solving the outstanding issue for those who are dissatisfied.
Our membership deserve the process of this election to be the start of transparency and demonstrable probity. However I encourage the members to now demonstrate their will with SNP HQ.
A leading Black British KC conducted a forensic examination commissioned by Keir Starmer, who insisted it wouldn't be a whitewash, and true enough, it wasn't. Faced with the inconvenient truth, the party ignored Forde – he says he effectively hasn't heard from the party since.
Martin Forde’s report has done severe damage to John Ware’s reputation & to that of the BBC for journalistic integrity. He says so himself. But many of those who applauded the Panorama hit-job continue to stand by its conclusions out of delusion, denial or just plain dishonesty.
In 2016, Corbyn asked Shami Chakrabarti to write a report on antisemitism in the Labour Party. He then implemented all her recommendations.
In 2020, Starmer asked Martin Forde to write a report on the vile behaviour of Blairite staff at Labour HQ. And then completely ignored it.
Pretty much the only recommendation she made was that people not use the words 'Zio' and 'Paki.'
Which since they should not have been using them anyway, was not exactly a world shattering revelation.
The rest of her report was a tissue of lies and evasions that even the Daily Telegraph would have blinked at.
But, I suppose it must be difficult for you to know that you slavishly supported a dangerous racist nutjob.
Well the EHRC praised the report
SKS is the one with a heirachy of racism which you turn a blind eye to
Do you have a link to the EHRC praising the Chakrabarti report? All the recent praise of the Labour Party I’m aware of, from the BoD and the EHRC anyway, stems from SKS’s leadership.
Interesting thread on Bakhmut. More questions than predictions.
Thread on Bakhmut. Before talking about the tactical situation, it is important to put it in the strategic context. Ukraine conducted successful offensives in Kharkiv and Kherson after heavy Russian military attrition during the Battle of the Donbas left its lines vulnerable. https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1637880591898095618
IMO there's one great question in this war atm: which side has most reserves at the moment for a push? If one side or the other has a much greater number of reserves, there's going to be an autumn-2022 style movement. If not, then we are looking at more-or-less stalemate for the foreseeable. And I have no idea which side has the most reserves in equipment and men.
Topping is military and doesn't like civilians holding forth on army matters. It's understandable. Doesn't stop him putting the NHS to rights though. Or schools. So, you know.
Speaking of which, I’ve just completed my Master’s in Military History. It’s now down to my examiner to determine if my Dissertation is good enough.
Well done.
Many thanks. It’s on the Spanish contribution to Allied victory in the Peninsular War (much greater in fact, than traditional historiography has held).
I refuse to believe Bernard Cornwell's documentary series on the Peninsula War was incorrect.
Wellington was a military genius, without doubt. But, English historiography tends to view him as winning the war, single-handedly.
In 2016, Corbyn asked Shami Chakrabarti to write a report on antisemitism in the Labour Party. He then implemented all her recommendations.
In 2020, Starmer asked Martin Forde to write a report on the vile behaviour of Blairite staff at Labour HQ. And then completely ignored it.
Pretty much the only recommendation she made was that people not use the words 'Zio' and 'Paki.'
Which since they should not have been using them anyway, was not exactly a world shattering revelation.
The rest of her report was a tissue of lies and evasions that even the Daily Telegraph would have blinked at.
But, I suppose it must be difficult for you to know that you slavishly supported a dangerous racist nutjob.
Well the EHRC praised the report
SKS is the one with a heirachy of racism which you turn a blind eye to
Starmer may be by your understanding a shambling wretch, utterly useless and will get crushed by a resurgent Richi Sunak at the next GE, but there is nothing to suggest he is a racist.
Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand is so stupid that his support for the Palestinian cause is so wayward that he ended up punishing Jewish Labour MPs for Netanyahu's racist aggression. Now deny that Jeremy Corbyn should be branded an utterly moronic anti-Semite?
The Conservatives have suffered serious brand damage but they can still game a coalition of the 50+ age cohort, and are clearly playing a coherent electoral strategy.
This. The Conservative Party is vastly underestimated, because of this. The land is choc full of comfortably off, small-c conservative pensioners and their similarly comfortable offspring, looking forward to their own retirements along with a great fat inheritance when Mum and Dad shuffle off. The Tories are the lobby group for these people, who also provide the bulk of their fossil membership. They care about no-one else, except for the very rich.
The minted grey vote will troop back to the Tories come the next election, and that'll save their arses. Or most of them, at any rate. The Tory majority goes, because the Tories have, after all, been a bag of stinking shit for the rest of the country, but all those client oldies constitute a very large constituency and will be enough to keep them right in the game.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-65018547
Woohoo!
He used that money to pay hush money to Stormy Daniels.
Full disclosure. I know someone who has bumped uglies with Stormy Daniels.
He hates the fact he is custard cousins with Donald Trump.
It looks to me like a glitch in the database, but I don't know whether to rearrange my travel to avoid the Monday anyway, (pointlessly incurring extra cost and having to take more time off work), or just to go ahead and trust that the train will be there? Predictably all of the people I can talk to on the phone are simply using the National Rail Enquiries website, and so know nothing.
Starts 2 mins in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk9iEEpLAvE
The only difference is that Major made a fortune in Fund Management after he was Prime Minister.
The Unpredictable Abilities Emerging From Large AI Models
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-unpredictable-abilities-emerging-from-large-ai-models-20230316/
I don't know on that one. I'm hesitant to draw parallels with the Cardiff killer driver, but there are parallels of a one car accident with loss of control at far too high speed.
A public conversation we need to be having somehow; obvs the newspapers are all over "poor girl - never wear hair clips when your car is driving itself dangerously" (without the "dangerously").
I spun my dad's car off an icy roundabout going too fast 6 weeks after I passed my test. My sister did the same thing to my first car the first time I let her drive it in snow. Both could have killed or hospitalised an innocent third party.
The moon shines in the midst of the sky;the immeasurable vault of heaven seems to have expanded to infinity; the earth is bathed in silver light; the air is warm, voluptuous, and redolent of innumerable sweet scents. A divine night! A magical night!
Mykola Hohol
📷@palchyk_online
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1637903081953439744
Reports coming in of attacks into Crimea.
⚡️⚡️Explosions are reported in Dzhankoi, Crimea. Reportedly - drone attack.
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1637903422203502593
Despite my dad continuously saying that when you pass your test, you're still a learner.
It's when people do utterly stupid things, or don't admit they did something wrong. Which is why I don't have much sympathy for Gary Hart. He did something stupid, but always said he was in the right.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selby_rail_crash
(*) There are two common factors here: me, and a Land Rover. I loved that car...
There was a statement in a book I read decades ago that "experienced in using roads" starts at half a million miles.
But
At what point is the narrative going to shift a bit if Starmer doesn’t completely blow the doors off this May?
But I reckon if the Tories can get to a more regular 10-15 behind that concern will set in. That's the kind of leader that could be eaten into enough to prevent victory.
More than a dozen European Union member states have agreed to supply Ukraine with at least one million artillery shells over the next year.
The plan, worth €2bn in total, was agreed in Brussels on Monday.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65018434
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bellingham#/media/File:Bellingham_plaque.png
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1637908446182817793
Edit: Looks very much like a V1 but with no doubt much improved accuracy.
Supposedly the major hurdles for Rwanda deportations are set to be cleared in the next few weeks before the summer migrant surge. If that's actually the case and not just Tory ramping I think they will get a big boost in the polls for it plus inflation is definitely falling now and even the gloomy OBR are suggesting by the summer workers will be back to real terms pay rises.
The other random factor that I think works for the government is the lack of financial turmoil as some parts of the world enter crisis mode. While it's not necessarily the most noticeable subject if it does explode in the US and Germany with bailouts and taxpayer money being spent while the UK sector just keeps going as normal that will be yet another dull competence point in favour.
Basically Starmer could dull his way into Number 10 against Boris or Liz Truss, I think another 18 months of dull competence by Rishi will make it much more difficult and Rishi may dull his way to a slim majority or workable minority.
I doubt Labour + Green combined are at near 60% of the electorate.
My dad's company had to help clean up after such a spill. My *guess* would be that it was a combination of the road camber, the trailer's suspension, the roundabout layout, the speed, the baffle layout within the tanker, and the level they were filled to.
I don't hear of it happening nowadays.
⚡️⚡️The sound of a new Ukrainian kamikaze drone is similar to the sound that just attacked a military facility in occupied Crimea
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1637910431179198466
https://time.com/6252541/inside-the-us-army-plant-making-artillery-shells-for-ukraine/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj8KjjZVZYw
I can't wait to read your full dissertation. I've loved hearing about it so far.
https://twitter.com/jonathanchait/status/1637779658526556160
Basically, if you ask me, all coal-fired plants should be phased out worldwide as a matter of urgency and replaced by gas/nukes/wind. Particularly the reprobates like China.
It'd make a real dent. Question is our delivery capability if everyone does that at once. But we have to try.
In 2020, Starmer asked Martin Forde to write a report on the vile behaviour of Blairite staff at Labour HQ. And then completely ignored it.
The Conservatives have suffered serious brand damage but they can still game a coalition of the 50+ age cohort, and are clearly playing a coherent electoral strategy.
Starmer remains what he's always been: a tedious tactical triangulator.
Which since they should not have been using them anyway, was not exactly a world shattering revelation.
The rest of her report was a tissue of lies and evasions that even the Daily Telegraph would have blinked at.
But, I suppose it must be difficult for you to know that you slavishly supported a dangerous racist nutjob.
And I think we better wait and see how the current crisis plays out before getting too excited.
You're not going to get your dream-Goddess Truss back.
Must hurt.
Oh wait, sorry that’s all of them….
It's a failure of the government and our politicians who have put off these decisions for far too long.
1. Aylesbury by 1.4%
2. Banbury by 3.3%
3. Basingstoke by 4.0%
4. Bassetlaw by 2.5%
5. Beckenham by 1.8%
6. Burton by 0.2%
7. Chelsea & Fulham by 3.3%
8. Halesowen & Rowley Regis by 1.5%
9. Hemel Hempstead by 1.6%
10.North East Derbyshire by 3.9%
11.North East Somerset by 3.8%
12.North Somerset by 1.7%
13.North Swindon by 0.7%
14.Nuneaton by 0.9%
15.Old Bexley & Sidcup by 9.4% - {this must be a mistake by UKPR}
16.Plymouth Moor View by 0.8%
17.Rochford & Southend East by 3.3%
18.Rugby by 3.5%
19.St Austell & Newquay by 0.3%
20.Stafford by 1.9%
21.Stoke-on-Trent South by 1.5%
22.Stourbridge by 0.3%
23.Telford by 4.4%
24.Worthing West by 2.8%
These are the seats with projected leads of less than 5% over the Conservatives, based on the current opinion polls (with overall vote shares of Lab 46.3%, Con 27.8%).
https://pollingreport.uk/seats
I'll cheerfully concede Sunak is so far an improvement on Truss and Johnson but that's only my nomination for the Damning with Faint Praise Award. There's still at least 18 months to go and plenty can happen.
I'd also venture not only will Starmer and Labour take nothing for granted but they will probably be pleased to see the gap narrow a little to encourage the Labour vote out. There's nothing like a foregone conclusion to make your supporters stay at home.
After five Prime Ministers in fourteen years, there's a fair argument it's now time for a proper change.
John Major was a decent guy and a fair Prime Minister - for all the good it did him.
That's not a phrase I hear very often. Or indeed ever.
SKS is the one with a heirachy of racism which you turn a blind eye to
As for your other claim, do you have a link? The only EHRC comment I recall on Corbyn's Labour was when they declared them to be a bunch of raging racists. But equally, as Labour had become a poisonous irrelevance under the useless posh git I may just not have noticed.
Mar 14: "Unfortunately, I will be unable to take up your invitation as my diary is full over my final two weeks in office, as I focus on ensuring a smooth transition."
Today: Sturgeon on Loose Women on same day as committee…..
Nicola Sturgeon's Loose Women appearance was at 12.45pm. She then did a speech and Q&A at the RSA at 2.30pm. The Scottish Affairs Committee started at 2.30pm (though start time could have been changed for Nicola Sturgeon, I'm told)
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1637860224961765376?s=20
I believe the power lies with the members of the SNP to select their next leader.
There was an amendment to the normal established timeline as detailed in the SNP constitution for a leadership election - creating an inappropriately short time frame for this selection contest.
I do not believe the NEC have had the opportunity to review my proposal fully - nor do I understand the problem with allowing members to change their mind, given the revelations of the weekend.
Allowing members to edit their vote enables the ballot to continue on its current timeline, while solving the outstanding issue for those who are dissatisfied.
Our membership deserve the process of this election to be the start of transparency and demonstrable probity. However I encourage the members to now demonstrate their will with SNP HQ.
https://twitter.com/AshReganSNP/status/1637913802384523268?s=20
Martin Forde’s report has done severe damage to John Ware’s reputation & to that of the BBC for journalistic integrity. He says so himself. But many of those who applauded the Panorama hit-job continue to stand by its conclusions out of delusion, denial or just plain dishonesty.
Jeremy Corbyn on the other hand is so stupid that his support for the Palestinian cause is so wayward that he ended up punishing Jewish Labour MPs for Netanyahu's racist aggression. Now deny that Jeremy Corbyn should be branded an utterly moronic anti-Semite?
The minted grey vote will troop back to the Tories come the next election, and that'll save their arses. Or most of them, at any rate. The Tory majority goes, because the Tories have, after all, been a bag of stinking shit for the rest of the country, but all those client oldies constitute a very large constituency and will be enough to keep them right in the game.