Sunak deserves a little bounce for his NI efforts. I wouldn't begrudge it him. The big picture hasn't changed - Lab majority coming - but he's looking like a giant compared to his recent predecessors.
I think a little bounce only (if any). Joe Public has no interest in NI or ongoing banter over Brexit which has happened.
However, I have a hunch that Sunak's quiet head-down, get-on-with-the-job style will ratchet up admiration gradually. A slow burner.
The recent edition of of the The Times Red Box Podcast was interesting - the one where they have the monthly voter focus group. This time it was a group of 2019 CP voters who plan to vote Labour next time. A small sample I know but what came through is that their disillusionment goes back to Johnson and Truss and folk do have short memories. And the Labour lead is soft. And they prefer Sunak to Starmer even though that plan to vote Labour.
It is pretty obvious that Sunak's job is to lose with grace and dignity, such that he may even keep his job as leader, and enable to Tory party to become once again capable of being a One Nation serious government. The sort that doesn't send its citizenship dirty washing to Bangladesh or its refugees to Rwanda. He needs to work harder on that front.
I have voted Tory in GEs for nearly 50 years. I am not going to this time on simple moral, competence and sanity grounds. The question is whether I (and a few million others) do so delightedly or with some regret that we have to.
So you punish Sunak despite him being sane, competent and (at least relatively) moral
I understand the vogue way of phrasing this absurdity is to claim Sunak is being CANCELLED rather than punished. Alternatively someone simply prefers to vote for someone else.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
Well, your preferred leader would want a Russian family to be superior to a British family.
Traitor with a capital T.
Not so. Jezza wants the many in Britain to be better off by the few paying their fair share. None of this Superior bollocks
As for Russia he was the first to call out Putin when Centrists were cuddling up, and on day 1 of the war called on an unconditional withdrawal of the invaders.
SKS is a Sneering Tosser capital S Capital T
SKSSTWNBPM (Hopefully)!!
"Jezza"
I mean, do you know you sound like some blind fanboi?
"As for Russia he was the first to call out Putin ..."
That's not how I remember his reaction to Salisbury or MH17.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
You lead the way, I’ll try to follow.
I remember when John was an interesting voice of the left.
These days he is just a Borisite who is weirdly obsessed with Sir Keir. It’s an unedifying spectacle.
Another economic straw in the wind. The first of 3 tranches of my mortgage is at the end of its fixed rate of 2.29% in June. Currently the SVR is 7.5% but I can get deals at around 4.5%, or even lower if I go long fixed (because the market forward curve is downwards). So all in all that's not bad. Certainly not ruinous.
If that's the sort of mortgage rate hike people will be getting this year then I don't think it's a disaster. Up till 4% it's the repayment element of the payment that's bigger than the interest.
I was looking forward to a change of government in 2024. I'm now starting to worry the Tories will fortuitously get the election timing just right yet again, like they did in 2015 and 2010 (and like the leave campaign did in 2016).
SKS today "We've got the highest tax burden that we've had for decades in this country under this government."
Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @krishgm that the Conservatives have created "a high tax economy and a low growth economy" and that Labour "want to bring taxes down".
JC today
"The UK is the 6th richest country in the world, yet 1 in 4 children live in poverty.
The first mission of any government should be to end this grotesque inequality plunging millions into despair.
It’s time to wake up to the crises we face — and offer a more hopeful alternative."
Compare and Contrast Jezza dont let our kids starve to death SKS we cant risk a few votes by putting up taxes on the rich they will have to miss a few meals so i can get to be PM
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
Well, your preferred leader would want a Russian family to be superior to a British family.
Traitor with a capital T.
Not so. Jezza wants the many in Britain to be better off by the few paying their fair share. None of this Superior bollocks
As for Russia he was the first to call out Putin when Centrists were cuddling up, and on day 1 of the war called on an unconditional withdrawal of the invaders.
SKS is a Sneering Tosser capital S Capital T
SKSSTWNBPM (Hopefully)!!
"Jezza"
I mean, do you know you sound like some blind fanboi?
"As for Russia he was the first to call out Putin ..."
That's not how I remember his reaction to Salisbury or MH17.
And even if it were true does not excuse parroting Kremlin talking points about Nato expansion and phony 'peace' calls which would mean telling Ukraine to concede, forever, the territories currently taken. Not just harder areas like Crimea, but areas they are currently contesting.
My prediction, for what it's worth, is that the polls will narrow quite significantly during this year and up until the next GE is called, although Labour will retain a lead throughout.
However, I expect the polls to widen again (in Labour's favour) once the GE campaign is under way. I base this on Labour's/Starmer's ruthless determination to win. I think they'll run a more professional, consistent and united GE campaign than the Tories, focusing on the right balance of emphasising Tory failure in government and promoting a Labour offer that provides enough optimism and sound policies to satisfy enough voters.
But, like everybody else, I'm just guessing really. Voter volatility is the name of the game.
I'm a touch more bullish, Al - although not (BigG) in any way overconfident or hubristic - in that I expect the poll lead to stay ultra comfortable throughout, no sleepless nights, then on the Day, oh yes that's a very nice majority.
Another economic straw in the wind. The first of 3 tranches of my mortgage is at the end of its fixed rate of 2.29% in June. Currently the SVR is 7.5% but I can get deals at around 4.5%, or even lower if I go long fixed (because the market forward curve is downwards). So all in all that's not bad. Certainly not ruinous.
If that's the sort of mortgage rate hike people will be getting this year then I don't think it's a disaster. Up till 4% it's the repayment element of the payment that's bigger than the interest.
I was looking forward to a change of government in 2024. I'm now starting to worry the Tories will fortuitously get the election timing just right yet again, like they did in 2015 and 2010 (and like the leave campaign did in 2016).
Interesting, but I've never heard of a UK domestic multiple tranched mortgage before.
Imagine how embarrassing for “Labour for a Republic” if there is photographic proof of the current Labour leader with a sexually incontinent loon with crazy blond hair who managed to bullshit his way to the top of the establishment.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
Revolut’s auditor warned that the design of the fintech’s IT systems meant there was a risk that the bulk of its 2021 revenues were materially misstated even as it turned a profit for the first time that year.
The crypto boom helped Revolut report on Wednesday a net profit of £26mn in 2021 compared with a £223mn loss the previous year. Revenues in 2021 almost tripled to £636mn.
But the group’s auditor, BDO, issued a qualified opinion on Revolut’s overdue accounts because it had been unable to fully verify £477mn of revenues — including its foreign exchange and wealth department, which includes crypto.
Auditors said in their report into the accounts that they had been “unable to satisfy ourselves as to the completeness” of these revenues, meaning that references to the company’s revenues “may be materially misstated”.
There are rumours that the Russians are sending ten T-14 Armatas (their latest tank) to the front. At least, there is video of what is allegedly them on a train somewhere, going somewhere else.
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
They have been saying that for a while. Including videos claiming to be a T14 in action. Very static. Which turned out not to be in Ukraine - hacked out from promo videos.
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
SKS today "We've got the highest tax burden that we've had for decades in this country under this government."
Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @krishgm that the Conservatives have created "a high tax economy and a low growth economy" and that Labour "want to bring taxes down".
JC today
"The UK is the 6th richest country in the world, yet 1 in 4 children live in poverty.
The first mission of any government should be to end this grotesque inequality plunging millions into despair.
It’s time to wake up to the crises we face — and offer a more hopeful alternative."
Compare and Contrast Jezza dont let our kids starve to death SKS we cant risk a few votes by putting up taxes on the rich they will have to miss a few meals so i can get to be PM
BJO - in your opinion, what share should the rich be paying? AFAICS the rich are already paying rather a lot, and I worry that if we ask them to pay any more they will simply leave. What in your view is the proportion of tax receipts that should come from the top 1%?
Sunak deserves a little bounce for his NI efforts. I wouldn't begrudge it him. The big picture hasn't changed - Lab majority coming - but he's looking like a giant compared to his recent predecessors.
I think a little bounce only (if any). Joe Public has no interest in NI or ongoing banter over Brexit which has happened.
However, I have a hunch that Sunak's quiet head-down, get-on-with-the-job style will ratchet up admiration gradually. A slow burner.
The recent edition of of the The Times Red Box Podcast was interesting - the one where they have the monthly voter focus group. This time it was a group of 2019 CP voters who plan to vote Labour next time. A small sample I know but what came through is that their disillusionment goes back to Johnson and Truss and folk do have short memories. And the Labour lead is soft. And they prefer Sunak to Starmer even though that plan to vote Labour.
It is pretty obvious that Sunak's job is to lose with grace and dignity, such that he may even keep his job as leader, and enable to Tory party to become once again capable of being a One Nation serious government. The sort that doesn't send its citizenship dirty washing to Bangladesh or its refugees to Rwanda. He needs to work harder on that front.
I have voted Tory in GEs for nearly 50 years. I am not going to this time on simple moral, competence and sanity grounds. The question is whether I (and a few million others) do so delightedly or with some regret that we have to.
So you punish Sunak despite him being sane, competent and (at least relatively) moral
Well yes, algakirk might, but some might not now. My initial instincts were that no-one's vite is swung by NI. But there are a whole bunch of algakirks out there who have always voted Tory but won't now. Maybe algakirk still won't, but my instinct is that many are, whether they know it or not, hoping for a reason to vote Tory again. They might not be frightened of Labour but they are still wary. NI might not be it by itself, but a string of quiet non-fuck-ups might be it.
My ‘most seats’ market on BFE is well into green for all of the outcomes, now, which is good play on my part. Laying Labour most seats now is a good way to ensure a decent profit whatever, as OGH’s lead directs.
But my ‘overall majority’ market is highly green only for NOM or LibDem maj, but in the red for both Tory maj and Labour maj. Clearly I haven’t been as clever in playing the odds on the latter!
There are rumours that the Russians are sending ten T-14 Armatas (their latest tank) to the front. At least, there is video of what is allegedly them on a train somewhere, going somewhere else.
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
They have been saying that for a while. Including videos claiming to be a T14 in action. Very static. Which turned out not to be in Ukraine - hacked out from promo videos.
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
So you reckon it's Tony Blair whose "sensitivities" led the BBC to row back on the Savile documentary? Or maybe Keir Starmer, former DPP?
True that BBC radio plays the "God Save Tony Blair" song every day, so you may be on to something. And the BBC operates on a Charter issued in the name of the Starmer family too.
Off thread - I shouldn't even be here right now. I've found a lovely little pub on the edges of Central Manchester - midway between the gentrification of the Northern Quarter and, er, not-gentrification of Collyhurst. The beer is good but unpretentious, it is dimly lit amd cosy, and I had planned to spend a happy hour to myself reading about the Dark Ages. But alas, my kindle has run out of batteries. Never happens with proper books.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He’s right that he probably won’t come across that well in a GE. Labour’s chances rest almost entirely on the populace still despising the Tories in late 2024 almost as much as they (we) despise them right now.
There are rumours that the Russians are sending ten T-14 Armatas (their latest tank) to the front. At least, there is video of what is allegedly them on a train somewhere, going somewhere else.
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
They have been saying that for a while. Including videos claiming to be a T14 in action. Very static. Which turned out not to be in Ukraine - hacked out from promo videos.
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
Even I wasn't this angry and bitter when Mark Reckless betrayed David Cameron and defected to UKIP on the eve of the Tory conference.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
The Tories have infamously been pandering to the DUP for many years now -and allowing them to wreck Stormont's business as the NI parliament while keeping most of their salaries. So knowing a bit about NI isn't going to cause most folk to feel more positive. Mr Sunak is still very much in clearing up his lot's mess mode, I think.
But that the percentages varied widely from time to time, and place to place. There is reason to believe, for example, that the percentage is higher for psychology research papers, than for physics research papers.
(What is the percentage now for science fiction? I have not read enough of the recent stuff to say with any certainty, but would note that Sturgeon said that during science fiction's "Golden Age", so I suspect that he would think it now higher than 90 percent.)
I’ve published over 50 research papers and have confidence in that work. Recent moves in my field(s) have been around better access to data that supports publication (I.e. we make it available to anyone who wants to see it). This is something that has been an issue in the past, as without looking at raw data you cannot always detect fraud.
One of my issues with some climate science has been a reluctance to publish raw data, albeit under intolerable pressure from those who want to find issues in it. But you should always open your data to scrutiny, unless you want people to assume there is something to hide.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
The hard left would rather a centrist Tory government with a leftwing Labour opposition than a centrist Labour government with a Tory opposition on the whole
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
To be fair you can see that in other posters including @Scott_xP who is embittered by Brexit
Sunak deserves a little bounce for his NI efforts. I wouldn't begrudge it him. The big picture hasn't changed - Lab majority coming - but he's looking like a giant compared to his recent predecessors.
I think a little bounce only (if any). Joe Public has no interest in NI or ongoing banter over Brexit which has happened.
However, I have a hunch that Sunak's quiet head-down, get-on-with-the-job style will ratchet up admiration gradually. A slow burner.
The recent edition of of the The Times Red Box Podcast was interesting - the one where they have the monthly voter focus group. This time it was a group of 2019 CP voters who plan to vote Labour next time. A small sample I know but what came through is that their disillusionment goes back to Johnson and Truss and folk do have short memories. And the Labour lead is soft. And they prefer Sunak to Starmer even though that plan to vote Labour.
It is pretty obvious that Sunak's job is to lose with grace and dignity, such that he may even keep his job as leader, and enable to Tory party to become once again capable of being a One Nation serious government. The sort that doesn't send its citizenship dirty washing to Bangladesh or its refugees to Rwanda. He needs to work harder on that front.
I have voted Tory in GEs for nearly 50 years. I am not going to this time on simple moral, competence and sanity grounds. The question is whether I (and a few million others) do so delightedly or with some regret that we have to.
So you punish Sunak despite him being sane, competent and (at least relatively) moral
I understand the vogue way of phrasing this absurdity is to claim Sunak is being CANCELLED rather than punished. Alternatively someone simply prefers to vote for someone else.
Thanks. Yes. Voting is what it is. It isn't punishment of any sort. In a decent world you vote for one out of a set of magnificent, selfless, humble, thoughtful and honest candidates, each of whom is characteristically modest in victory and gracious in defeat. At the moment we have two big party leaders who don't self disqualify. Good.
Recent times suggest that Sunak's party could do with a time of helpful and constructive opposition to relearn what centrist One Nation Toryism once stood for and why it was good at winning elections.
"It's OK to give the hospital keys to the national pervert because Tony Blair had him round for dinner once" is a great electoral slogan for the Tories?
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
You’re probably right.
On the upside, Sunak has shown himself a grown-up, capable of doing serious politics in a way that his two (arguably three or even four) predecessors were not.
On the downside, he’s highlighted the damage from Brexit, highlighted the huge damage done by his predecessor but one, and not delivered any benefit for voters other than in NI who can’t vote Tory anyway. And mightily pissed off Scotland into the bargain.
Sunak has the same opportunity that his three predecessors had, but were either incapable or unable or unwilling to take, of delivering a much softer Brexit before the next election. Right now I’d be surprised if he proves up to that task.
There are rumours that the Russians are sending ten T-14 Armatas (their latest tank) to the front. At least, there is video of what is allegedly them on a train somewhere, going somewhere else.
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
They have been saying that for a while. Including videos claiming to be a T14 in action. Very static. Which turned out not to be in Ukraine - hacked out from promo videos.
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
Given all the rumours that have turned out to be bullshit about this tank, I’d say we still have no data.
Well, I've seen some people claim that Russia only has four or so T-14s. So we know there's probably more than that. And they have enough to afford to put them on a train.
Also note that Russia wants sales, desperately. Their current range of tanks - even the T-90Ms - have suffered embarrassing losses. *If* the T-14 performs well - at least better than their current tanks - then it'll be good for sales.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
To be fair you can see that in other posters including @Scott_xP who is embittered by Brexit
It’s the personal nature of the grudge that stands out for me. I’d find it really hard to get that moved about someone I’d never met. Corbyn set Labour back years and was generally a bit rubbish selling snake oil, but my disappointment was never personal.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
Even I wasn't this angry and bitter when Mark Reckless betrayed David Cameron and defected to UKIP on the eve of the Tory conference.
A gargantuan intellect and a massive loss to the Tory Party. Surely a future leader had he stayed the course.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
The Deltapoll guy (Joe Dwyer?) on Andrew Marr though it might help Rishi, if Rishi can also persuade Macron to stop the boats, and if there is a massive giveaway budget. Marr added that Rishi would be further bolstered if he pays off the Doctors and Nurses.
There are rumours that the Russians are sending ten T-14 Armatas (their latest tank) to the front. At least, there is video of what is allegedly them on a train somewhere, going somewhere else.
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
They have been saying that for a while. Including videos claiming to be a T14 in action. Very static. Which turned out not to be in Ukraine - hacked out from promo videos.
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
Given all the rumours that have turned out to be bullshit about this tank, I’d say we still have no data.
Well, I've seen some people claim that Russia only has four or so T-14s. So we know there's probably more than that. And they have enough to afford to put them on a train.
Also note that Russia wants sales, desperately. Their current range of tanks - even the T-90Ms - have suffered embarrassing losses. *If* the T-14 performs well - at least better than their current tanks - then it'll be good for sales.
But I don't hold out much hope for that.
Yes, in addition to stymying their gas and oil export business, the war has dome little for Russia's arms export business. Dozens of third world tinpot dictators who have been armed by Russia are now feeling rather less secure than they were just over a year ago.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
To be fair you can see that in other posters including @Scott_xP who is embittered by Brexit
Yes, and rogerdamus, but it takes two to tango and there are die hard leavers too who are the equal but opposite end of the spectrum.
"It's OK to give the hospital keys to the national pervert because Tony Blair had him round for dinner once" is a great electoral slogan for the Tories?
I haven't noticed Edwina Currie on the Tory candidates list again?
I believe the former DPP who never prosecuted Savile might have something to do with the top of today's Labour Party though!
So the clever negotiators have come up with something that allows the UK government to reassure the perpetual refuseniks in NI that they have a veto while in practice it will be next to impossible for them to use it. Kudos to them, I’d say?
So the clever negotiators have come up with something that allows the UK government to reassure the perpetual refuseniks in NI that they have a veto while in practice it will be next to impossible for them to use it. Kudos to them, I’d say?
"It's OK to give the hospital keys to the national pervert because Tony Blair had him round for dinner once" is a great electoral slogan for the Tories?
I haven't noticed Edwina Currie on the Tory candidates list again?
I believe the former DPP who never prosecuted Savile might have something to do with the top of today's Labour Party though!
So the clever negotiators have come up with something that allows the UK government to reassure the perpetual refuseniks in NI that they have a veto while in practice it will be next to impossible for them to use it. Kudos to them, I’d say?
And to kick things off no active NI Assembly - no say in the matter.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
What would you have him say?
No brainer today
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
I am going to try to ignore your perpetual, petty sniping at Starmer going forward. He's a long way from perfect but compared to anyone in the Tory leadership, and particularly compared to the fuckwit Johnson (who you were prepared to vote for let us remember), Starmer is just fine.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
SKS is BJ but worse
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
Any evidence to back any of that up..
I really do wonder if @bigjohnowls is just enjoying rubbing up Labour supporters for the sake of it
He definitely does, but that doesn’t stop me worrying about him. There is an obsessive level of bitterness that’s not healthy.
Even I wasn't this angry and bitter when Mark Reckless betrayed David Cameron and defected to UKIP on the eve of the Tory conference.
A gargantuan intellect and a massive loss to the Tory Party. Surely a future leader had he stayed the course.
I bow to nobody in my admiration for TSE, but I fear this is an exaggeration.
“What has become clear over the past couple of days is that Sunak appears to be doing very well – certainly much better than he was”
🤣
Correct me where wrong - because I’m so gobsmacked why he’s not rowing back on this - Sunak selling his Got Brexit Done deal as Northern Ireland being in the best place on Earth - in UK and EU single market - whilst denying that “best place on earth” to Scotland, England and Wales? Am I the only person who thinks that curious selling point stokes up a whole new kettle of desires, more than any settled?
He’s certainly done the SNP and Scottish Independence homework for them, by defining what happens to their UK border once they are independent. Not only that but by telling separatists this will be the best place on earth, quite an advantage over England to be there, he’s giving them a huge incentive to go there has he not?
Sunak’s deal will not end EU law in Northern Ireland, nor ultimate oversight of EU judges in some circumstances, so Northern Island is still on a different course from mainland UK. This means the “green lane” removing Irish Sea border merely kicks that problem back to increased market surveillance North-South Ireland border, as EU and UK increasingly diverge - exactly where everyone but the DUP fear it being! So is that border problem really resolved, as some claim, or just MOVED to a more worrying place for it to be going forward?
The BRAKE? First, the threshold for the Stormont veto is high, 30 members across two parties just to trigger it. Secondly EU briefing paper on the Commission website says of the new veto: "This mechanism would be triggered under the most exceptional circumstances and as a matter of last resort", making clear there is no expectation it should be used regularly, such as veto every NEW EU LAW to be imposed on Northern Ireland. If anyone tries to use it like that, details set out in the actual text Sunak has agreed, gives EU the ability to take 'appropriate remedial measures' to protect their market. And that’s even after a UK government agrees with DUP and does not overrule them - why should DUP ever trust this UK government and EU favourable mechanism, or ever swallow the ludicrous spin this gives them their own veto? In fact, why should ANY Unionist or Brexiteer swallow this wherever they are, whatever party they are in?
By denying Northern Ireland full UK sovereignty, and no veto over more new EU law being imposed upon Northern Ireland despite DUP rejection of it, Sunak has a zero chance of getting the DUP to sign up to this, hence Stormont remains closed, with this opportunity to open it actually missed. If this doesn’t open it what ever will?
Are we sure Rishi is really handling this as well as all that this week?
PS I’m only reposting my first take from Monday evening, that some of you said was wrong. I’ll accept your apologies because everything in this post now proven 100% correct. 😌
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
You’re probably right.
On the upside, Sunak has shown himself a grown-up, capable of doing serious politics in a way that his two (arguably three or even four) predecessors were not.
On the downside, he’s highlighted the damage from Brexit, highlighted the huge damage done by his predecessor but one, and not delivered any benefit for voters other than in NI who can’t vote Tory anyway. And mightily pissed off Scotland into the bargain.
Sunak has the same opportunity that his three predecessors had, but were either incapable or unable or unwilling to take, of delivering a much softer Brexit before the next election. Right now I’d be surprised if he proves up to that task.
Sunak has one massive advantage over his predecessors; quite a few of the siren voices saying "Harder, Harder" have either been discredited (BoJo) or the fight seems to have gone out of them. We're starting to see the rumblings that this deal isn't just the UK getting its way, but I'm not sure that they will properly ignite this time
Against that, he doesn't have much time. And thanks to his predecessor but one, he's starting from a long way back.
I wonder if he'll let the EU Law shredding bill find a quiet spot to lay down and sleep.
Reportedly the king wants to move his brother Andrew into Frogmore, which he is kicking Harry and family out of, but Andrew wants to stay put in the Windsor Royal Lodge. This begs the question of who, if anybody, the king is planning to insert into the WRL. If I had to guess, I would guess somebody who is not a member of the royal family.
Sunak deserves a little bounce for his NI efforts. I wouldn't begrudge it him. The big picture hasn't changed - Lab majority coming - but he's looking like a giant compared to his recent predecessors.
I think a little bounce only (if any). Joe Public has no interest in NI or ongoing banter over Brexit which has happened.
However, I have a hunch that Sunak's quiet head-down, get-on-with-the-job style will ratchet up admiration gradually. A slow burner.
The recent edition of of the The Times Red Box Podcast was interesting - the one where they have the monthly voter focus group. This time it was a group of 2019 CP voters who plan to vote Labour next time. A small sample I know but what came through is that their disillusionment goes back to Johnson and Truss and folk do have short memories. And the Labour lead is soft. And they prefer Sunak to Starmer even though that plan to vote Labour.
It is pretty obvious that Sunak's job is to lose with grace and dignity, such that he may even keep his job as leader, and enable to Tory party to become once again capable of being a One Nation serious government. The sort that doesn't send its citizenship dirty washing to Bangladesh or its refugees to Rwanda. He needs to work harder on that front.
I have voted Tory in GEs for nearly 50 years. I am not going to this time on simple moral, competence and sanity grounds. The question is whether I (and a few million others) do so delightedly or with some regret that we have to.
So you punish Sunak despite him being sane, competent and (at least relatively) moral
Well yes, algakirk might, but some might not now. My initial instincts were that no-one's vite is swung by NI. But there are a whole bunch of algakirks out there who have always voted Tory but won't now. Maybe algakirk still won't, but my instinct is that many are, whether they know it or not, hoping for a reason to vote Tory again. They might not be frightened of Labour but they are still wary. NI might not be it by itself, but a string of quiet non-fuck-ups might be it.
Very interesting. Thanks. At the moment I would note vote Tory. All politics is relative of course, and if Pidcock and Burgon ran the Labour party I would not vote for them. SKS clearly sees all this.
Over the post referendum 2016 years no-one comes out well from parliament as a whole, Labour, Tories and government.
But the difference between Labour and Tory at the moment is that not only have the Tories messed up the biggest issue since WWII (with much help from Labour to do so), they have not yet begun the reformation of the party. Labour have.
To this One Nation Centrist, Labour are less scary than the Tories.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
You’re probably right.
On the upside, Sunak has shown himself a grown-up, capable of doing serious politics in a way that his two (arguably three or even four) predecessors were not.
On the downside, he’s highlighted the damage from Brexit, highlighted the huge damage done by his predecessor but one, and not delivered any benefit for voters other than in NI who can’t vote Tory anyway. And mightily pissed off Scotland into the bargain.
Sunak has the same opportunity that his three predecessors had, but were either incapable or unable or unwilling to take, of delivering a much softer Brexit before the next election. Right now I’d be surprised if he proves up to that task.
Sunak has one massive advantage over his predecessors; quite a few of the siren voices saying "Harder, Harder" have either been discredited (BoJo) or the fight seems to have gone out of them. We're starting to see the rumblings that this deal isn't just the UK getting its way, but I'm not sure that they will properly ignite this time
Against that, he doesn't have much time. And thanks to his predecessor but one, he's starting from a long way back.
I wonder if he'll let the EU Law shredding bill find a quiet spot to lay down and sleep.
He will totally want to kill the retained EU law bill. Pretty standard internationalist jobsworth stuff. The UK needed a hero; we got a time-serving empty suit. With the legs too short.
I'm more than happy to accept Sunak as an improvement on his two predecessors though that is slightly damning with faint phrase. His dedication and that of his officials and many others (including the EU) to resolve the complexity of the economic relationship between Northern Ireland, the UK and the EU has brought an agreement which, let's hope, will put Northern Ireland on a stronger economic footing (and if the ripples from that benefit Scotland and the Republic to name but two, so much the better).
It's hard to forget, however, Sunak was at the centre of the Johnson Government and its Covid response and all that flows from that and it may be the Covid Public Enquiry will be a key event during this year and into next - there will be many who don't want to rake over the coals of 2020 but the fact is Governments need to be held to account for decisions taken or not taken especially at times of crisis.
Questions may well be asked about the economic response - the amount of money received under fraudulent circumstances and the economic/medical benefit of Eat Out to Help Out for example. Sunak has the right and responsibility to answer these questions just as the public has the right to ask them.
I don't know if there is a way back from a 19% swing - the winning coalition in 2019 was three quarters of the LEAVE vote and about 20% of the REMAIN vote.
According to the blessed Deltapoll, LEAVE voters now split 39-38 (73-15) so that's a 28.5% swing from Conservative to Labour. REMAIN voters now split 24-53 (compared with 20-48 in 2019) so there's a tiny swing of 0.5% to the Conservatives.
Reportedly the king wants to move his brother Andrew into Frogmore, which he is kicking Harry and family out of, but Andrew wants to stay put in the Windsor Royal Lodge. This begs the question of who, if anybody, the king is planning to insert into the WRL. If I had to guess, I would guess somebody who is not a member of the royal family.
If I were the King I would move the Prince and Princess of Wales into WRL once Andrew is evicted and the Wessexes into Adelaide Cottage as their Windsor base
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
You’re probably right.
On the upside, Sunak has shown himself a grown-up, capable of doing serious politics in a way that his two (arguably three or even four) predecessors were not.
On the downside, he’s highlighted the damage from Brexit, highlighted the huge damage done by his predecessor but one, and not delivered any benefit for voters other than in NI who can’t vote Tory anyway. And mightily pissed off Scotland into the bargain.
Sunak has the same opportunity that his three predecessors had, but were either incapable or unable or unwilling to take, of delivering a much softer Brexit before the next election. Right now I’d be surprised if he proves up to that task.
Sunak has one massive advantage over his predecessors; quite a few of the siren voices saying "Harder, Harder" have either been discredited (BoJo) or the fight seems to have gone out of them. We're starting to see the rumblings that this deal isn't just the UK getting its way, but I'm not sure that they will properly ignite this time
Against that, he doesn't have much time. And thanks to his predecessor but one, he's starting from a long way back.
I wonder if he'll let the EU Law shredding bill find a quiet spot to lay down and sleep.
More likely, because he needs to give these tossers something, it will be defanged and we will have a restatement that UK law will remain the same as European law until the UK Parliament makes a decision to change it. Which it won't, except in some very limited circumstances, in case you were wondering.
Reportedly the king wants to move his brother Andrew into Frogmore, which he is kicking Harry and family out of, but Andrew wants to stay put in the Windsor Royal Lodge. This begs the question of who, if anybody, the king is planning to insert into the WRL. If I had to guess, I would guess somebody who is not a member of the royal family.
If I were the King I would move the Prince and Princess of Wales into WRL once Andrew is evicted and the Wessexes into Adelaide Cottage as their Windsor base
Bagshot Park is pretty much on the Windsor estate anyway so the Wessexes are already fine. I expect that the Crown could be looking to let the Royal Lodge for revenue. The King is said not to like Windsor so much, so possibly the Prince of Wales may be based more in the Castle.
Revolut’s auditor warned that the design of the fintech’s IT systems meant there was a risk that the bulk of its 2021 revenues were materially misstated even as it turned a profit for the first time that year.
The crypto boom helped Revolut report on Wednesday a net profit of £26mn in 2021 compared with a £223mn loss the previous year. Revenues in 2021 almost tripled to £636mn.
But the group’s auditor, BDO, issued a qualified opinion on Revolut’s overdue accounts because it had been unable to fully verify £477mn of revenues — including its foreign exchange and wealth department, which includes crypto.
Auditors said in their report into the accounts that they had been “unable to satisfy ourselves as to the completeness” of these revenues, meaning that references to the company’s revenues “may be materially misstated”.
Reportedly the king wants to move his brother Andrew into Frogmore, which he is kicking Harry and family out of, but Andrew wants to stay put in the Windsor Royal Lodge. This begs the question of who, if anybody, the king is planning to insert into the WRL. If I had to guess, I would guess somebody who is not a member of the royal family.
If I were the King I would move the Prince and Princess of Wales into WRL once Andrew is evicted and the Wessexes into Adelaide Cottage as their Windsor base
I suggest just down the road to the South Acton estate
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
The Tories have infamously been pandering to the DUP for many years now -and allowing them to wreck Stormont's business as the NI parliament while keeping most of their salaries. So knowing a bit about NI isn't going to cause most folk to feel more positive. Mr Sunak is still very much in clearing up his lot's mess mode, I think.
There’s not much that can be done if either side wants to suspend Stormont.
When SF shut it down, were you upset?
When 70 odd party members of SF in good standing were all in the same 6 foot square toilet, when a man was slowly beaten to death in the bar… were you worried? When SF threatened to suspend the assembly, again, if the police enquiry wasn’t handled more “sensitively”…
Well, it turns out that people listened. And learned.
I know it's been discussed before today... but I'm still in absolute disbelief that Hancock ever thought Isabel Oakeshott could be trusted not to stab him in the back. It makes Ned Stark's decision to trust Littlefinger look like a wise and astute move.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
"Do widzenia, kochanie" Trudno jest znaleźć pracę w Polsce, jeśli nie mówisz po polsku.
Rishi has put the Unionist back into the Conservative and Unionist Party.
He's strengthened the Union by defenestrating Sturgeon, leading to a drop in support for Sindy that probably scuppers it for years to come, and by removing almost all of the border in the Irish Sea and extending British sovereignty into Northern Ireland.
For that, I'll forever be grateful to him. Well done that man.
Off thread - I shouldn't even be here right now. I've found a lovely little pub on the edges of Central Manchester - midway between the gentrification of the Northern Quarter and, er, not-gentrification of Collyhurst. The beer is good but unpretentious, it is dimly lit amd cosy, and I had planned to spend a happy hour to myself reading about the Dark Ages. But alas, my kindle has run out of batteries. Never happens with proper books.
Something to mull if you're hanging out solo down the pub ... the ENORMOUS political and financial resource behind the (never collapsing) Euro. 🙂
Just catching up, via the recently-discovered "notifications" on a week-old thread. About whether having military experience gives any insight into geopolitical conflicts the like of which we are seeing now.
Of course it doesn't. It does mean that I can look at an area weapon strike and cast my eyes to the ceiling as everyone pronounces that the damage came from hand held anti-tank weapons yes sure, but more broadly at theatre level then not at all.
My inestimable expertise comes from studying the bleedin' obvious, from historical geopolitical conflicts, and from accepting that the fog of war is real and this one won't be resolved in 24-hr rolling news time.
I also call out comments which display absurd historical determinism or say, one way or another, that we will win because we must win, these latter usually made by scared idiots on here who hope that if they shout something loud enough the bad man will go away.
Anyway, good weekend everyone, I trust.
Good post. The PB Toy Soldiers are a particularly unfunny joke. The worst thing about this site.
No, your self appointed role as PB style guardian wins that honour.
Beyond tedious.
I was tempted to add your misogynistic garbage about dockside sex workers to the list but it's so far beyond the pale it would have served only to trivialise it.
You are such a misogynist, your brain automatically assumes hookers have to be women.
Most of the sex workers I have encountered in my life are males.
"Patricia, once you've had a lover robot, you'll never want a real man... again!"
Another economic straw in the wind. The first of 3 tranches of my mortgage is at the end of its fixed rate of 2.29% in June. Currently the SVR is 7.5% but I can get deals at around 4.5%, or even lower if I go long fixed (because the market forward curve is downwards). So all in all that's not bad. Certainly not ruinous.
If that's the sort of mortgage rate hike people will be getting this year then I don't think it's a disaster. Up till 4% it's the repayment element of the payment that's bigger than the interest.
I was looking forward to a change of government in 2024. I'm now starting to worry the Tories will fortuitously get the election timing just right yet again, like they did in 2015 and 2010 (and like the leave campaign did in 2016).
Interesting, but I've never heard of a UK domestic multiple tranched mortgage before.
I borrowed more on the existing property twice to pay for renovations, and each time got a different rate with a different term. So 3 tranches with same lender. It must be quite common.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
"Do widzenia, kochanie" Trudno jest znaleźć pracę w Polsce, jeśli nie mówisz po polsku.
Off thread - I shouldn't even be here right now. I've found a lovely little pub on the edges of Central Manchester - midway between the gentrification of the Northern Quarter and, er, not-gentrification of Collyhurst. The beer is good but unpretentious, it is dimly lit amd cosy, and I had planned to spend a happy hour to myself reading about the Dark Ages. But alas, my kindle has run out of batteries. Never happens with proper books.
Something to mull if you're hanging out solo down the pub ... the ENORMOUS political and financial resource behind the (never collapsing) Euro. 🙂
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
"Do widzenia, kochanie" Trudno jest znaleźć pracę w Polsce, jeśli nie mówisz po polsku.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
The Tories have infamously been pandering to the DUP for many years now -and allowing them to wreck Stormont's business as the NI parliament while keeping most of their salaries. So knowing a bit about NI isn't going to cause most folk to feel more positive. Mr Sunak is still very much in clearing up his lot's mess mode, I think.
There’s not much that can be done if either side wants to suspend Stormont.
When SF shut it down, were you upset?
When 70 odd party members of SF in good standing were all in the same 6 foot square toilet, when a man was slowly beaten to death in the bar… were you worried? When SF threatened to suspend the assembly, again, if the police enquiry wasn’t handled more “sensitively”…
Well, it turns out that people listened. And learned.
That’s the Peace Process.
Unless you are anti-agreement Man Of Violence?
Not impressed to see Stormont shut down full stop.
Bulgaria votes on April 1st (no giggling in the cheap seats).
The latest polls suggest Yanev's party will fall out of the National Assembly but the other parties are all polling close to their last election numbers so in effect there won't be much change.
The combined Left bloc is also at 3.6% so below the 4% threshold. The GERB-SDS and PP-DB blocs are both around 25%-26% so it looks like morse horse trading.
Estonia votes on Saturday and I suspect the current Government will retain a small overall majority in the Riigikogu.
There are rumours that the Russians are sending ten T-14 Armatas (their latest tank) to the front. At least, there is video of what is allegedly them on a train somewhere, going somewhere else.
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
They have been saying that for a while. Including videos claiming to be a T14 in action. Very static. Which turned out not to be in Ukraine - hacked out from promo videos.
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
Given all the rumours that have turned out to be bullshit about this tank, I’d say we still have no data.
Well, I've seen some people claim that Russia only has four or so T-14s. So we know there's probably more than that. And they have enough to afford to put them on a train.
Also note that Russia wants sales, desperately. Their current range of tanks - even the T-90Ms - have suffered embarrassing losses. *If* the T-14 performs well - at least better than their current tanks - then it'll be good for sales.
But I don't hold out much hope for that.
To be fair, you could have said the same about the Abrams given how many have been lost in Yemen to ATGMs. Tactics are key (and Ukraine also uses the same tanks).
Where I think Russia will lose sales are in mid income countries that face a conventional threat and can afford something extra. India is a classic example.
For tinpot dictators, a Mi24 gunship is still very useful - simple to maintain and your enemies are either poorly armed insurgents and / or rival nations with similar equipment.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
You’re probably right.
On the upside, Sunak has shown himself a grown-up, capable of doing serious politics in a way that his two (arguably three or even four) predecessors were not.
On the downside, he’s highlighted the damage from Brexit, highlighted the huge damage done by his predecessor but one, and not delivered any benefit for voters other than in NI who can’t vote Tory anyway. And mightily pissed off Scotland into the bargain.
Sunak has the same opportunity that his three predecessors had, but were either incapable or unable or unwilling to take, of delivering a much softer Brexit before the next election. Right now I’d be surprised if he proves up to that task.
Sunak has one massive advantage over his predecessors; quite a few of the siren voices saying "Harder, Harder" have either been discredited (BoJo) or the fight seems to have gone out of them. We're starting to see the rumblings that this deal isn't just the UK getting its way, but I'm not sure that they will properly ignite this time
Against that, he doesn't have much time. And thanks to his predecessor but one, he's starting from a long way back.
I wonder if he'll let the EU Law shredding bill find a quiet spot to lay down and sleep.
More likely, because he needs to give these tossers something, it will be defanged and we will have a restatement that UK law will remain the same as European law until the UK Parliament makes a decision to change it. Which it won't, except in some very limited circumstances, in case you were wondering.
When the time is ripe and when it is in our interests. The "on Marhtember oneteenth" bit can be left unsaid. (Favourite episode of one of my favourite shows.)
The odd thing being that it was a very specific campaign promise he made in the Summer 2022 leadership election. Now the convention is that losing an election wipes the promise slate clean for next time- did he get round to making any actual promises for the Autumn 2022 election that wasn't?
But an alert and powerful Eurosceptic wing could go properly nuts over that. Question is- are they any more, or have they been quietly and ruthlessly defanged as well?
"It's OK to give the hospital keys to the national pervert because Tony Blair had him round for dinner once" is a great electoral slogan for the Tories?
I haven't noticed Edwina Currie on the Tory candidates list again?
I believe the former DPP who never prosecuted Savile might have something to do with the top of today's Labour Party though!
Do the DPP initiate and execute criminal investigations?
Rishi has put the Unionist back into the Conservative and Unionist Party.
He's strengthened the Union by defenestrating Sturgeon, leading to a drop in support for Sindy that probably scuppers it for years to come, and by removing almost all of the border in the Irish Sea and extending British sovereignty into Northern Ireland.
For that, I'll forever be grateful to him. Well done that man.
Rather a curious analysis. Given that PBUnionists are absolutely convinced that Ms S wasn't actually working towards independence. Were you one of them, perchance?
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
"It's OK to give the hospital keys to the national pervert because Tony Blair had him round for dinner once" is a great electoral slogan for the Tories?
I haven't noticed Edwina Currie on the Tory candidates list again?
I believe the former DPP who never prosecuted Savile might have something to do with the top of today's Labour Party though!
Do the DPP initiate and execute criminal investigations?
I've wondered if the LOTO situation is weighing on the minds of the BBC who have filmed a drama series about it with Steve Coogan - but are delaying it over and over. I'd hate to make that call.
PMQs: SKS draws on the impact of the cost of living...
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
"Do widzenia, kochanie" Trudno jest znaleźć pracę w Polsce, jeśli nie mówisz po polsku.
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
You're forgetting something... Keir Starmer is probably going to be PM in less than two years.
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
You're forgetting something... Keir Starmer is probably going to be PM in less than two years.
Kier Starmer's Brexit policy is the equivalent of Blair promising to stick to Tory spending plans. A few years of his government will just entrench the new status quo.
But that the percentages varied widely from time to time, and place to place. There is reason to believe, for example, that the percentage is higher for psychology research papers, than for physics research papers.
(What is the percentage now for science fiction? I have not read enough of the recent stuff to say with any certainty, but would note that Sturgeon said that during science fiction's "Golden Age", so I suspect that he would think it now higher than 90 percent.)
I’ve published over 50 research papers and have confidence in that work. Recent moves in my field(s) have been around better access to data that supports publication (I.e. we make it available to anyone who wants to see it). This is something that has been an issue in the past, as without looking at raw data you cannot always detect fraud.
One of my issues with some climate science has been a reluctance to publish raw data, albeit under intolerable pressure from those who want to find issues in it. But you should always open your data to scrutiny, unless you want people to assume there is something to hide.
There's an issue in epidemiology/medical research in that we usually cna't share the data. Innovations like openSAFELY, where it's feasible to run modified analyses on the same data without seeing the data are one way around this.
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
You're forgetting something... Keir Starmer is probably going to be PM in less than two years.
But the whole first term is going to be pledged not to change anything wrt Brexit and by 2029 the economy is going to look very different than it does now, our balance of imports and exports will be much less dominated by the EU.
But that the percentages varied widely from time to time, and place to place. There is reason to believe, for example, that the percentage is higher for psychology research papers, than for physics research papers.
(What is the percentage now for science fiction? I have not read enough of the recent stuff to say with any certainty, but would note that Sturgeon said that during science fiction's "Golden Age", so I suspect that he would think it now higher than 90 percent.)
I’ve published over 50 research papers and have confidence in that work. Recent moves in my field(s) have been around better access to data that supports publication (I.e. we make it available to anyone who wants to see it). This is something that has been an issue in the past, as without looking at raw data you cannot always detect fraud.
One of my issues with some climate science has been a reluctance to publish raw data, albeit under intolerable pressure from those who want to find issues in it. But you should always open your data to scrutiny, unless you want people to assume there is something to hide.
There's an issue in epidemiology/medical research in that we usually cna't share the data. Innovations like openSAFELY, where it's feasible to run modified analyses on the same data without seeing the data are one way around this.
Not able to share because of data protection (for the patients)? Isn’t the data normally stripped of identifiable features anyway?
But that the percentages varied widely from time to time, and place to place. There is reason to believe, for example, that the percentage is higher for psychology research papers, than for physics research papers.
(What is the percentage now for science fiction? I have not read enough of the recent stuff to say with any certainty, but would note that Sturgeon said that during science fiction's "Golden Age", so I suspect that he would think it now higher than 90 percent.)
I’ve published over 50 research papers and have confidence in that work. Recent moves in my field(s) have been around better access to data that supports publication (I.e. we make it available to anyone who wants to see it). This is something that has been an issue in the past, as without looking at raw data you cannot always detect fraud.
One of my issues with some climate science has been a reluctance to publish raw data, albeit under intolerable pressure from those who want to find issues in it. But you should always open your data to scrutiny, unless you want people to assume there is something to hide.
There's an issue in epidemiology/medical research in that we usually cna't share the data. Innovations like openSAFELY, where it's feasible to run modified analyses on the same data without seeing the data are one way around this.
I think a lot of the replication crisis is in subjects like psychology. In the physical sciences I’d expect less issues, aside of outright fraud. Certainly I feel very confident of repeating any chemical synthesis that’s published, and would expect mine to be repeated by others too.
"It's OK to give the hospital keys to the national pervert because Tony Blair had him round for dinner once" is a great electoral slogan for the Tories?
I haven't noticed Edwina Currie on the Tory candidates list again?
I believe the former DPP who never prosecuted Savile might have something to do with the top of today's Labour Party though!
Do the DPP initiate and execute criminal investigations?
I've wondered if the LOTO situation is weighing on the minds of the BBC who have filmed a drama series about it with Steve Coogan - but are delaying it over and over. I'd hate to make that call.
Regarding Saville, it would seem to me that most of the bucketloads of shit deserve to be poured over the BBC .. as opposed to the LOTO, or the DPP, or the King, or Margaret Thatcher.
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
You're forgetting something... Keir Starmer is probably going to be PM in less than two years.
But the whole first term is going to be pledged not to change anything wrt Brexit and by 2029 the economy is going to look very different than it does now, our balance of imports and exports will be much less dominated by the EU.
And then what? Think about the politics for a second.
A large chunk of the Brexit vote was from workers unhappy about being undercut by workers in Eastern Europe. You seem to be proposing that they will be undercut by workers in East Asia.
Shock therapy is one thing, but do you really think any politician of any party would dare let that happen on their watch?
But that the percentages varied widely from time to time, and place to place. There is reason to believe, for example, that the percentage is higher for psychology research papers, than for physics research papers.
(What is the percentage now for science fiction? I have not read enough of the recent stuff to say with any certainty, but would note that Sturgeon said that during science fiction's "Golden Age", so I suspect that he would think it now higher than 90 percent.)
I’ve published over 50 research papers and have confidence in that work. Recent moves in my field(s) have been around better access to data that supports publication (I.e. we make it available to anyone who wants to see it). This is something that has been an issue in the past, as without looking at raw data you cannot always detect fraud.
One of my issues with some climate science has been a reluctance to publish raw data, albeit under intolerable pressure from those who want to find issues in it. But you should always open your data to scrutiny, unless you want people to assume there is something to hide.
There's an issue in epidemiology/medical research in that we usually cna't share the data. Innovations like openSAFELY, where it's feasible to run modified analyses on the same data without seeing the data are one way around this.
It's becoming an issue in social sciences, where the best data come from either government databases or big tech firms, and only select researchers get access.
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
But that the percentages varied widely from time to time, and place to place. There is reason to believe, for example, that the percentage is higher for psychology research papers, than for physics research papers.
(What is the percentage now for science fiction? I have not read enough of the recent stuff to say with any certainty, but would note that Sturgeon said that during science fiction's "Golden Age", so I suspect that he would think it now higher than 90 percent.)
I’ve published over 50 research papers and have confidence in that work. Recent moves in my field(s) have been around better access to data that supports publication (I.e. we make it available to anyone who wants to see it). This is something that has been an issue in the past, as without looking at raw data you cannot always detect fraud.
One of my issues with some climate science has been a reluctance to publish raw data, albeit under intolerable pressure from those who want to find issues in it. But you should always open your data to scrutiny, unless you want people to assume there is something to hide.
There's an issue in epidemiology/medical research in that we usually cna't share the data. Innovations like openSAFELY, where it's feasible to run modified analyses on the same data without seeing the data are one way around this.
Not able to share because of data protection (for the patients)? Isn’t the data normally stripped of identifiable features anyway?
Yes. The data are pseudonymised (no name, no residential address - you can get data to LSOA which is a few thousand people - generally only month and year of birth). But if you're looking at hospital records with dates of admission, hospital of admission, diagnoses etc then you could probably find your neighbour who had the hip operation last year and all his hospital medical history (within the data extract obtained). So they can't just be shared. And generally you do need that level of detail in my line of work.
I'm often dealing with quite rare conditions, so simply diagnosis and town could identify someone, potentially.
Attempting to identify anyone is illegal, would lead to sacking and a permanent data ban if discovered. You have to get ONS approved researcher status - wiht training etc - to access the data. I don't really see why other approved researchers should not be able to request a duplicate dataset at low cost for validation purposes, but I don't think that's presently allowed - you'd need to make the case afresh for the public interest in doing that and make a whole new application.
ETA: Also confidence in the reproducibility of my work. We've actively worked with other teams elsewhere to replicate in different datasets to establish generalisability. We've also done some projection work on population sizes with conditions which, to be honest to our surprise, has so far proved accurate within the prediction intervals (about ten years into the projections). Coming from a physics background I do like models you can actually test
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
The Tories have infamously been pandering to the DUP for many years now -and allowing them to wreck Stormont's business as the NI parliament while keeping most of their salaries. So knowing a bit about NI isn't going to cause most folk to feel more positive. Mr Sunak is still very much in clearing up his lot's mess mode, I think.
There’s not much that can be done if either side wants to suspend Stormont.
When SF shut it down, were you upset?
When 70 odd party members of SF in good standing were all in the same 6 foot square toilet, when a man was slowly beaten to death in the bar… were you worried? When SF threatened to suspend the assembly, again, if the police enquiry wasn’t handled more “sensitively”…
Well, it turns out that people listened. And learned.
That’s the Peace Process.
Unless you are anti-agreement Man Of Violence?
Not impressed to see Stormont shut down full stop.
Them’s the rules.
Too late to say “This Peace Process isn’t the one I wanted, do you have one like it but in lilac?”
Given that the torturers and murderers are in politics, rather than in jail, I can’t get worked up about some people not turning up for their day jobs.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
The Tories have infamously been pandering to the DUP for many years now -and allowing them to wreck Stormont's business as the NI parliament while keeping most of their salaries. So knowing a bit about NI isn't going to cause most folk to feel more positive. Mr Sunak is still very much in clearing up his lot's mess mode, I think.
There’s not much that can be done if either side wants to suspend Stormont.
When SF shut it down, were you upset?
When 70 odd party members of SF in good standing were all in the same 6 foot square toilet, when a man was slowly beaten to death in the bar… were you worried? When SF threatened to suspend the assembly, again, if the police enquiry wasn’t handled more “sensitively”…
Well, it turns out that people listened. And learned.
That’s the Peace Process.
Unless you are anti-agreement Man Of Violence?
Not impressed to see Stormont shut down full stop.
There are rumours that the Russians are sending ten T-14 Armatas (their latest tank) to the front. At least, there is video of what is allegedly them on a train somewhere, going somewhere else.
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
They have been saying that for a while. Including videos claiming to be a T14 in action. Very static. Which turned out not to be in Ukraine - hacked out from promo videos.
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
Given all the rumours that have turned out to be bullshit about this tank, I’d say we still have no data.
Well, I've seen some people claim that Russia only has four or so T-14s. So we know there's probably more than that. And they have enough to afford to put them on a train.
Also note that Russia wants sales, desperately. Their current range of tanks - even the T-90Ms - have suffered embarrassing losses. *If* the T-14 performs well - at least better than their current tanks - then it'll be good for sales.
But I don't hold out much hope for that.
Russia have been having problems for years, many years, trying to start serial production of the T-14, and failing. Not much point them finding someone to agree to buy it if they can't build any of the things.
Rishi has put the Unionist back into the Conservative and Unionist Party.
He's strengthened the Union by defenestrating Sturgeon, leading to a drop in support for Sindy that probably scuppers it for years to come, and by removing almost all of the border in the Irish Sea and extending British sovereignty into Northern Ireland.
For that, I'll forever be grateful to him. Well done that man.
Rather a curious analysis. Given that PBUnionists are absolutely convinced that Ms S wasn't actually working towards independence. Were you one of them, perchance?
I wouldn't give Casino's abysmal Sunak apologia the credence of taking issue with it.
I don’t give a shit if Sturgeon wanted to use masks in Scottish Schools. There was no reason to impose them in England, just to avoid a row. Man up and fight your corner.
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
You're forgetting something... Keir Starmer is probably going to be PM in less than two years.
But the whole first term is going to be pledged not to change anything wrt Brexit and by 2029 the economy is going to look very different than it does now, our balance of imports and exports will be much less dominated by the EU.
And then what? Think about the politics for a second.
A large chunk of the Brexit vote was from workers unhappy about being undercut by workers in Eastern Europe. You seem to be proposing that they will be undercut by workers in East Asia.
Shock therapy is one thing, but do you really think any politician of any party would dare let that happen on their watch?
As we are already seeing with Filipina nurses. Who are happy to nurse for salaries that British nurses find inadequate.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
The Tories have infamously been pandering to the DUP for many years now -and allowing them to wreck Stormont's business as the NI parliament while keeping most of their salaries. So knowing a bit about NI isn't going to cause most folk to feel more positive. Mr Sunak is still very much in clearing up his lot's mess mode, I think.
There’s not much that can be done if either side wants to suspend Stormont.
When SF shut it down, were you upset?
When 70 odd party members of SF in good standing were all in the same 6 foot square toilet, when a man was slowly beaten to death in the bar… were you worried? When SF threatened to suspend the assembly, again, if the police enquiry wasn’t handled more “sensitively”…
Well, it turns out that people listened. And learned.
That’s the Peace Process.
Unless you are anti-agreement Man Of Violence?
Not impressed to see Stormont shut down full stop.
Them’s the rules.
Too late to say “This Peace Process isn’t the one I wanted, do you have one like it but in lilac?”
Given that the torturers and murderers are in politics, rather than in jail, I can’t get worked up about some people not turning up for their day jobs.
Interesting that the UK's formal accession to the CPTPP looks set to be announced in the next few weeks. So much for the theory that Rishi is backsliding on Brexit somehow. As @Casino_Royale and I have been saying, the WF closes the door on the single market and customs union version of Brexit, pushing ahead with the CPTPP shows that we're not going to be in either of those any time soon.
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
You're forgetting something... Keir Starmer is probably going to be PM in less than two years.
But the whole first term is going to be pledged not to change anything wrt Brexit and by 2029 the economy is going to look very different than it does now, our balance of imports and exports will be much less dominated by the EU.
And then what? Think about the politics for a second.
A large chunk of the Brexit vote was from workers unhappy about being undercut by workers in Eastern Europe. You seem to be proposing that they will be undercut by workers in East Asia.
Shock therapy is one thing, but do you really think any politician of any party would dare let that happen on their watch?
I think we also need to bear in mind that a lot of hardcore remainers/rejoiners who are remaining quiet at the moment will be less so when we are mid-term through a Labour government. They'll be wanting some red meat for backing Labour.
Comments
I mean, do you know you sound like some blind fanboi?
"As for Russia he was the first to call out Putin ..."
That's not how I remember his reaction to Salisbury or MH17.
I remember when John was an interesting voice of the left.
These days he is just a Borisite who is weirdly obsessed with Sir Keir. It’s an unedifying spectacle.
If that's the sort of mortgage rate hike people will be getting this year then I don't think it's a disaster. Up till 4% it's the repayment element of the payment that's bigger than the interest.
I was looking forward to a change of government in 2024. I'm now starting to worry the Tories will fortuitously get the election timing just right yet again, like they did in 2015 and 2010 (and like the leave campaign did in 2016).
"We've got the highest tax burden that we've had for decades in this country under this government."
Labour leader Keir Starmer tells @krishgm that the Conservatives have created "a high tax economy and a low growth economy" and that Labour "want to bring taxes down".
JC today
"The UK is the 6th richest country in the world, yet 1 in 4 children live in poverty.
The first mission of any government should be to end this grotesque inequality plunging millions into despair.
It’s time to wake up to the crises we face — and offer a more hopeful alternative."
Compare and Contrast Jezza dont let our kids starve to death SKS we cant risk a few votes by putting up taxes on the rich they will have to miss a few meals so i can get to be PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2487217/Jimmy-Savile-harassed-music-boss-wife-Chequers-dinner-party-hosted-Tony-Blair.html
Equal in the liar Department
Equal in the only in it for himself department
Equal in the warmonger Department
Worse in the Democracy Department
The crypto boom helped Revolut report on Wednesday a net profit of £26mn in 2021 compared with a £223mn loss the previous year. Revenues in 2021 almost tripled to £636mn.
But the group’s auditor, BDO, issued a qualified opinion on Revolut’s overdue accounts because it had been unable to fully verify £477mn of revenues — including its foreign exchange and wealth department, which includes crypto.
Auditors said in their report into the accounts that they had been “unable to satisfy ourselves as to the completeness” of these revenues, meaning that references to the company’s revenues “may be materially misstated”.
https://www.ft.com/content/ef3a7e6c-67e5-4146-a033-ca00c1640007
Is recycling bullshit environmentally friendly?
I presume the uptick in T14 rumours relates to the rumours of the imminent arrival of western tanks.
My initial instincts were that no-one's vite is swung by NI. But there are a whole bunch of algakirks out there who have always voted Tory but won't now. Maybe algakirk still won't, but my instinct is that many are, whether they know it or not, hoping for a reason to vote Tory again. They might not be frightened of Labour but they are still wary. NI might not be it by itself, but a string of quiet non-fuck-ups might be it.
But my ‘overall majority’ market is highly green only for NOM or LibDem maj, but in the red for both Tory maj and Labour maj. Clearly I haven’t been as clever in playing the odds on the latter!
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1630937083547140096
True that BBC radio plays the "God Save Tony Blair" song every day, so you may be on to something. And the BBC operates on a Charter issued in the name of the Starmer family too.
As my good lady has just said 'it makes you feel sick'
unpretentious, it is dimly lit amd cosy, and I had planned to spend a happy hour to myself reading about the Dark Ages. But alas, my kindle has run out of batteries. Never happens with proper books.
I'm not wholly convinced this week's events will help the Prime Minister that much. John Major, among others, did marvellous work in Northern Ireland but gained little from it electorally in the rest of the UK. The truth is, however much it's boosted by Conservative supporters and pro-Conservative media, most people don't care that much about Northern Ireland.
I don't imagine in 2016 many contemplating a LEAVE vote considered the impact of such a vote on Northern Ireland and its politics - I could be wrong.
Sunak, to his credit, has delivered a deal and perhaps it's a sign unlike on here the emotions of the past seven years are being replaced by a pragmatic reality. It takes two to tango - arguably both the UK and the EU have "won" simply by removing the issue from the board. Naturally, some on here emphasise the positives for Britain but let's not forget it's probably a good deal for the EU inasmuch as it provides a sound economic and political relationship with the UK going forward.
Nobody will be talking about re-joining but the adversarial nature of the post-2016 relationship on both sides is finally being replaced by the necessity to make this work. Those who still want the fight will deny the deal but the truth is more now want to move on and in that regard Sunak was pushing at a door far more easy to open than was the case a few years go.
Given all the rumours that have turned out to be bullshit about this tank, I’d say we still have no data.
One of my issues with some climate science has been a reluctance to publish raw data, albeit under intolerable pressure from those who want to find issues in it. But you should always open your data to scrutiny, unless you want people to assume there is something to hide.
Recent times suggest that Sunak's party could do with a time of helpful and constructive opposition to relearn what centrist One Nation Toryism once stood for and why it was good at winning elections.
Here's how we think the mechanism to allow MLAs to object to changes to EU law under the Windsor Framework will work 👇
Credit to @Sachin_Savur
(errors and omissions mine)
https://twitter.com/Jess_Sargeant/status/1630988951262486528/photo/1
On the upside, Sunak has shown himself a grown-up, capable of doing serious politics in a way that his two (arguably three or even four) predecessors were not.
On the downside, he’s highlighted the damage from Brexit, highlighted the huge damage done by his predecessor but one, and not delivered any benefit for voters other than in NI who can’t vote Tory anyway. And mightily pissed off Scotland into the bargain.
Sunak has the same opportunity that his three predecessors had, but were either incapable or unable or unwilling to take, of delivering a much softer Brexit before the next election. Right now I’d be surprised if he proves up to that task.
Also note that Russia wants sales, desperately. Their current range of tanks - even the T-90Ms - have suffered embarrassing losses. *If* the T-14 performs well - at least better than their current tanks - then it'll be good for sales.
But I don't hold out much hope for that.
I believe the former DPP who never prosecuted Savile might have something to do with the top of today's Labour Party though!
“What has become clear over the past couple of days is that Sunak appears to be doing very well – certainly much better than he was”
🤣
Correct me where wrong - because I’m so gobsmacked why he’s not rowing back on this - Sunak selling his Got Brexit Done deal as Northern Ireland being in the best place on Earth - in UK and EU single market - whilst denying that “best place on earth” to Scotland, England and Wales? Am I the only person who thinks that curious selling point stokes up a whole new kettle of desires, more than any settled?
He’s certainly done the SNP and Scottish Independence homework for them, by defining what happens to their UK border once they are independent. Not only that but by telling separatists this will be the best place on earth, quite an advantage over England to be there, he’s giving them a huge incentive to go there has he not?
Sunak’s deal will not end EU law in Northern Ireland, nor ultimate oversight of EU judges in some circumstances, so Northern Island is still on a different course from mainland UK. This means the “green lane” removing Irish Sea border merely kicks that problem back to increased market surveillance North-South Ireland border, as EU and UK increasingly diverge - exactly where everyone but the DUP fear it being! So is that border problem really resolved, as some claim, or just MOVED to a more worrying place for it to be going forward?
The BRAKE? First, the threshold for the Stormont veto is high, 30 members across two parties just to trigger it. Secondly EU briefing paper on the Commission website says of the new veto: "This mechanism would be triggered under the most exceptional circumstances and as a matter of last resort", making clear there is no expectation it should be used regularly, such as veto every NEW EU LAW to be imposed on Northern Ireland. If anyone tries to use it like that, details set out in the actual text Sunak has agreed, gives EU the ability to take 'appropriate remedial measures' to protect their market. And that’s even after a UK government agrees with DUP and does not overrule them - why should DUP ever trust this UK government and EU favourable mechanism, or ever swallow the ludicrous spin this gives them their own veto? In fact, why should ANY Unionist or Brexiteer swallow this wherever they are, whatever party they are in?
By denying Northern Ireland full UK sovereignty, and no veto over more new EU law being imposed upon Northern Ireland despite DUP rejection of it, Sunak has a zero chance of getting the DUP to sign up to this, hence Stormont remains closed, with this opportunity to open it actually missed. If this doesn’t open it what ever will?
Are we sure Rishi is really handling this as well as all that this week?
PS I’m only reposting my first take from Monday evening, that some of you said was wrong. I’ll accept your apologies because everything in this post now proven 100% correct. 😌
Against that, he doesn't have much time. And thanks to his predecessor but one, he's starting from a long way back.
I wonder if he'll let the EU Law shredding bill find a quiet spot to lay down and sleep.
Over the post referendum 2016 years no-one comes out well from parliament as a whole, Labour, Tories and government.
But the difference between Labour and Tory at the moment is that not only have the Tories messed up the biggest issue since WWII (with much help from Labour to do so), they have not yet begun the reformation of the party. Labour have.
To this One Nation Centrist, Labour are less scary than the Tories.
It's hard to forget, however, Sunak was at the centre of the Johnson Government and its Covid response and all that flows from that and it may be the Covid Public Enquiry will be a key event during this year and into next - there will be many who don't want to rake over the coals of 2020 but the fact is Governments need to be held to account for decisions taken or not taken especially at times of crisis.
Questions may well be asked about the economic response - the amount of money received under fraudulent circumstances and the economic/medical benefit of Eat Out to Help Out for example. Sunak has the right and responsibility to answer these questions just as the public has the right to ask them.
I don't know if there is a way back from a 19% swing - the winning coalition in 2019 was three quarters of the LEAVE vote and about 20% of the REMAIN vote.
According to the blessed Deltapoll, LEAVE voters now split 39-38 (73-15) so that's a 28.5% swing from Conservative to Labour. REMAIN voters now split 24-53 (compared with 20-48 in 2019) so there's a tiny swing of 0.5% to the Conservatives.
Hmmm.
When SF shut it down, were you upset?
When 70 odd party members of SF in good standing were all in the same 6 foot square toilet, when a man was slowly beaten to death in the bar… were you worried? When SF threatened to suspend the assembly, again, if the police enquiry wasn’t handled more “sensitively”…
Well, it turns out that people listened. And learned.
That’s the Peace Process.
Unless you are anti-agreement Man Of Violence?
He's strengthened the Union by defenestrating Sturgeon, leading to a drop in support for Sindy that probably scuppers it for years to come, and by removing almost all of the border in the Irish Sea and extending British sovereignty into Northern Ireland.
For that, I'll forever be grateful to him. Well done that man.
The latest polls suggest Yanev's party will fall out of the National Assembly but the other parties are all polling close to their last election numbers so in effect there won't be much change.
The combined Left bloc is also at 3.6% so below the 4% threshold. The GERB-SDS and PP-DB blocs are both around 25%-26% so it looks like morse horse trading.
Estonia votes on Saturday and I suspect the current Government will retain a small overall majority in the Riigikogu.
Where I think Russia will lose sales are in mid income countries that face a conventional threat and can afford something extra. India is a classic example.
For tinpot dictators, a Mi24 gunship is still very useful - simple to maintain and your enemies are either poorly armed insurgents and / or rival nations with similar equipment.
The odd thing being that it was a very specific campaign promise he made in the Summer 2022 leadership election. Now the convention is that losing an election wipes the promise slate clean for next time- did he get round to making any actual promises for the Autumn 2022 election that wasn't?
But an alert and powerful Eurosceptic wing could go properly nuts over that. Question is- are they any more, or have they been quietly and ruthlessly defanged as well?
Closing the book on NI also closes the book on Brexit. It is, IMO, now complete and from this point the relationship with the EU will be defined by the TCA and changes to it to ease trade but there is no longer that hope in the EU that they can crowbar the UK into the single market or dynamic alignment using NI.
Once we join the CPTPP I think within 5 years the nature of the who we do business with will just change and UK PLC will have to adapt to compete with imports from significantly more dynamic and better invested Asian companies than what they're used to. I'm very interested to see which companies are able to compete and which just wither and die because they failed to invest over the last 10 years and instead paid huge dividends to shareholders and bonuses to executives.
Many in the BBC very clearly knew.
A large chunk of the Brexit vote was from workers unhappy about being undercut by workers in Eastern Europe. You seem to be proposing that they will be undercut by workers in East Asia.
Shock therapy is one thing, but do you really think any politician of any party would dare let that happen on their watch?
I'm often dealing with quite rare conditions, so simply diagnosis and town could identify someone, potentially.
Attempting to identify anyone is illegal, would lead to sacking and a permanent data ban if discovered. You have to get ONS approved researcher status - wiht training etc - to access the data. I don't really see why other approved researchers should not be able to request a duplicate dataset at low cost for validation purposes, but I don't think that's presently allowed - you'd need to make the case afresh for the public interest in doing that and make a whole new application.
ETA: Also confidence in the reproducibility of my work. We've actively worked with other teams elsewhere to replicate in different datasets to establish generalisability. We've also done some projection work on population sizes with conditions which, to be honest to our surprise, has so far proved accurate within the prediction intervals (about ten years into the projections). Coming from a physics background I do like models you can actually test
Too late to say “This Peace Process isn’t the one I wanted, do you have one like it but in lilac?”
Given that the torturers and murderers are in politics, rather than in jail, I can’t get worked up about some people not turning up for their day jobs.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/education-64811382
I don’t give a shit if Sturgeon wanted to use masks in Scottish Schools. There was no reason to impose them in England, just to avoid a row. Man up and fight your corner.