Better CON polls will likely send this betting in the opposite direction – politicalbetting.com
Better CON polls will likely send this betting in the opposite direction – politicalbetting.com
What is becoming clear over the past couple of days is that Sunak appears to be doing very well.
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The rest of the time the members of the later profession are holding their heads, screaming "That was proved wrong in 1576"
And depends heavily on how rapidly we get back to scandals and fuckups.
I don't see a Tory bounce coming any time soon.
But decrying the Northern Ireland deal on the basis that it just affects NI is not correct either, I think. This is a genuine win for good government all round, given the constraints of the issue. And it may well have knock on effects in other areas.
In the last month in our polls, Keir Starmer has
– Extended LAB's lead in GB to 27%
– Gained 4% in approval in GB, 6% in Red Wall
– Increased lead over Sunak for best PM to 9%
– Grown LAB’s lead as most trusted on economy, NHS & immigration
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1630978705651539968?s=20
Personally, I think his PM ratings will notch up a tad but the Conservative brand is shot.
He's still going for the hundred as the night watchman though, and doing very well at the crease.
ETA: But yes, vaguely competent looks impressive when compared to Truss and Johnson. Starmer has also benefitted from this, of course.
Note that the big crackdown was when immigrants started hindering the operation of the Channel Tunnel. Which the French see as one of the jewels of National Infrastructure. Once that problem was dealt with, it was back to the usual.
Under him, we at least have the chance to overturn our reputation as a global laughing stock. Faint praise, perhaps, but Not Boris-Not Truss isn't to be sniffed at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnun8y7r8_U
JBC fans please explain.
However, I have a hunch that Sunak's quiet head-down, get-on-with-the-job style will ratchet up admiration gradually. A slow burner.
The recent edition of of the The Times Red Box Podcast was interesting - the one where they have the monthly voter focus group. This time it was a group of 2019 CP voters who plan to vote Labour next time. A small sample I know but what came through is that their disillusionment goes back to Johnson and Truss and folk do have short memories. And the Labour lead is soft. And they prefer Sunak to Starmer even though that plan to vote Labour.
Detective Chief Inspector Neil Hibberd helped investigate the murder of David Tebbutt at a beachside resort on the Kenyan island of Kiwayu in 2011.
Tebbutt, 58, finance director of the publishing firm Faber and Faber, was shot in the head as he tried to fight off the gang. His wife Judith was kidnapped and held hostage for six months until a ransom of £800,000 was paid.
Hibberd gave evidence in the 2013 trial of Ali Kololo, a Kenyan woodcutter, who was convicted of kidnap and robbery. His death sentence was later commuted to life imprisonment.
Judith Tebbutt, 67, from Hertfordshire, supported a campaign by Reprieve, the charity, to overturn the conviction, saying Kololo was made a “scapegoat” by Scotland Yard detectives who failed to track down her true attackers.
“I know for sure that he wasn’t part of that group that took me that night,” she said last year. “The people that took me are still out there.”
Kololo was released from jail last month and is expected to have his conviction quashed in April because of concerns about Hibberd’s evidence.
The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) said today it assisted in preparation for his appeal.
The watchdog found that while the officer was working on the investigation in England, he omitted “significant forensic evidence” relating to footwear worn by Kololo and included statements from the suspect’s account in breach of instructions agreed by the Home Office.
The IOPC said: “In our view these amounted to potential breaches of the police standards of professional behaviour for honesty and integrity, and duties and responsibilities.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scotland-yard-detective-helped-put-wrong-man-in-jail-finds-police-watchdog-p226qqfb9
No time for counting Centrist Chickens just yet.
But that the percentages varied widely from time to time, and place to place. There is reason to believe, for example, that the percentage is higher for psychology research papers, than for physics research papers.
(What is the percentage now for science fiction? I have not read enough of the recent stuff to say with any certainty, but would note that Sturgeon said that during science fiction's "Golden Age", so I suspect that he would think it now higher than 90 percent.)
It isn't simply that it is midterm.
I have voted Tory in GEs for nearly 50 years. I am not going to this time on simple moral, competence and sanity grounds. The question is whether I (and a few million others) do so delightedly or with some regret that we have to.
It is good he has addressed Johnson's NIP and also that he is looking at joining Horizon and cooperation with not only France but Brussels over the boat issue
His enthusiasm for NI and the single market may hint at his direction of travel once he has sidelined the extreme members of the ERG, indeed a move to joining the single market would be a game changer
I think any poll improvement will be gradual but important events are coming along very quickly in the calender:
March budget with hopefully further help on fuel bills
Early April 10.1% increases in pensions and benefits
Early April increase in the minimum wage
May coronation
And hopefully resolution of the nurses pay dispute
And finally Labour have to take on someone who does detail
Ridiculous.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Poii8JAbtng
I remember the days when our politicians used to (sometimes) take such responsibility.
The dye is cast. There is no way back for the tories. Labour will win a landslide majority.
"Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot lost her bid for a second term Tuesday, failing to make a top-two runoff in the latest demonstration of growing concerns about crime in one of the nation’s largest cities.
Paul Vallas, a long-time public schools chief who ran on a tough-on-crime message, and Brandon Johnson, a Cook County commissioner backed by progressives and the Chicago Teachers Union, will advance to the April runoff, CNN projects.
Tuesday’s municipal election marked the first time in more than 30 years that Chicago has ditched its mayor. Lightfoot could not overcome years of fights with the police and teachers’ unions, a spike in violent crime during her administration and Chicago’s slow recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic."
source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/28/politics/chicago-mayor-election-results/index.html
(You can find some numbers on crime in Chicago here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_Chicago For me, one of the consistently most troubling is the "reported murder clearance rate".)
Well done him.
Belarus is offering Polish nationals visa free access from the EU
The official justification is that there is overwhelming demand in Poland for visa-free access to Belarus
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1630985574109663232?s=20
The WF is partially down to the presence of A16 in the NIP and partially because the UK had the ability to climb down from somewhere. I think the end result is owed to lots of other factors but one can't deny that Frost getting A16 into the NIP was a big factor in getting the EU to talk to us and climbing down from the NIPB gave Rishi a free hit in giving something up to look reasonable.
Acting crazy can win in a single encounter. But the second time, the other party knows it's an act and learns to ignore it.
Like John Major in 1997 if he loses in 2024 Sunak will be remembered with honour because of Northern Ireland.
I'm just having fun with the obvious bind Boris finds himself in in deciding to either claim credit for the new deal, or to trash it.
The Carrington resignation over the Falklands effectively protected those in the Foreign Office who had hidden and denied the signs of the coming war. Including destroying the career of the SIS chap in Argentina who had upset lots of people with his silly reports about Argentine military preparations.
This was long a pattern - a minister resigns. No need to change anything or ask what went wrong. Didn’t you hear? The minister resigned.
Starmer faces a very different opponent over the next 18 months, and there is a very real danger that Labour and their supporters become overconfident and hubristic
Surprise on the upside, deal with big issues in a competent and detailed way, don’t talk horseshit but save the talk until delivered.
If you think about the NI deal he managed to get two ministers who ostensibly had no reason to be so loyal - Baker of the ERG and Not so Cleverly who was a Boris man - to shut up, work hard even if they might have reservations, no leaks.
If he can turn to his colleagues and say they have a chance if they knuckle down and behave like adults, get big ticket issues done, hold out quietly re tax cuts when economy is strong then they might just do it if they have seen the reception across the board to NI/Windsor.
It will mean totally pushing aside the idiots on the extreme but core part discipline might just yield results.
You're talking to Heathener!
I am less okay with the local stationmaster being charged with "manslaughter by negligence and grievous bodily harm by negligence" at this stage.
I don't know about the Greek signalling system, but no modernish signalling system - heck, post-Victorian signalling system - should allow two trains into a section at a time. The chances are that, whilst he might have done something wrong, there were also other more systematic failures that allowed him to do something wrong.
Charging him at this stage provides authorities with an 'easy' answer and makes it less likely to find any systematic causal factors. Worse, he may understandably be reticent to tell them what actually went on.
Sad to say, in this sort of case it is more important to work out *what* went wrong to stop it happening again, than to allocate blame amongst people who would never have wanted it to happen.
"The average family in Britain will be poorer than the average family in Poland. We're going to see a generation of young people learning to say 'Auf Wiedersehen, Pet' in Polish", says SKS
What a tosser
However, I expect the polls to widen again (in Labour's favour) once the GE campaign is under way. I base this on Labour's/Starmer's ruthless determination to win. I think they'll run a more professional, consistent and united GE campaign than the Tories, focusing on the right balance of emphasising Tory failure in government and promoting a Labour offer that provides enough optimism and sound policies to satisfy enough voters.
But, like everybody else, I'm just guessing really. Voter volatility is the name of the game.
If that happens we are still into a prolonged stalemate in NI. And if, in fact, the real DUP position is that they have no intention of helping form an NI government in current circumstances then this will soon be forgotten.
I wonder what Westminster's plan B is for NI politically in that case.
Perhaps it's time they were all told that an independent NI with UN peacekeepers is the only next option.
When I were a lad… we used to play a game of coming up with book titles and authors (my dad was a publisher)
Easy Money by Robin Banks
Long Walk by Miss D Bus
And just for @TOPPING : Modern Warfare by R Tillery
So we might see modern Russian tanks against relatively modern western ones.
That'll be interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-14_Armata
"Hancock killing Granny's".
It is a shocking state of affairs, a leader of the supposed Labour Party arrogantly implying the average (pebbledashed house, toolmaker dad & nurse mum) British family should somehow be far superior to a Polish family.
Tosser with a capital T
Traitor with a capital T.
Combined SF, the UUP and Alliance got well over 50% of the Northern Irish vote at the last Stormont and Westminster elections. The UUP can also represent Unionists and Doug Beattie looks certain to back the new Deal even if Donaldson doesn't because Wilson and Paisley bind his hands
The BBC has reportedly delayed a documentary on Jimmy Saville due this year until 2024 because of 'sensitivities'.
One can't help but wonder what might be sensitive about publishing it this year...
https://twitter.com/labour4republic/status/1630677034530746369?s=46
Love, Keir.
So, I'm going to try to ignore you, but it's hard because your focus on undermining Labour instead of attacking the true culprits is really bloody intensely irritating.
That feels better.
As for Russia he was the first to call out Putin when Centrists were cuddling up, and on day 1 of the war called on an unconditional withdrawal of the invaders.
SKS is a Sneering Tosser capital S Capital T
SKSSTWNBPM (Hopefully)!!