Given the level of sleaze and corruption, I’m surprised how many still think favourably of the Conservatives. They are better regarded than the Lib Dems, still, suggesting the latter won’t be coming back in their former heartlands.
Nor are Labour anything like as well-regarded as in the mid 90’s.
I can’t see anything other than a Labour victory next time, but I doubt if it will be a landslide. I’d expect a lead (in terms of votes) in the region of 43/35%.
I would interpret it differently.
The number seeing the Tories favourably reflects their national polling.
The numbers seeing Greens and LibDems positively considerably exceeds their national polling, giving potential upside to their voteshare in real elections, as we are likely to see in the May locals. It also shows considerable potential for tactical voting.
The Lib Dems, I’m really not sure what they are for. I’m not sure what they’re against.
A political party leadership contest is like lancing a boil – a necessary act of self-harm designed to relieve the building pressure and to return some sense of norm – but that in the moment, inflicts acute pain allowing the poison that’s been filling a void to spill over. It’s toxic, infectious, spreads a vile contagion that inflicts wounds, takes casualties, and causes lasting harm.
Just think the Milibands. And think on.
And so it is that the party acknowledged, even by its enemies, for its renowned ability to keep a lid on dissension and corral any sense of debate into the requisite group think, now exposes itself for having as many pustules to pop as any other.
UPDATE: It turns out Panelbase also have net personal ratings for each candidate, and on those the gap between Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf is much, much wider.
I suspect there’s a lot of “Don’t knows” in there..
I think in the end they’ll go for Forbes. Regan and Yousaf are both patently not up to the job, and in the absence of others that just leaves Forbes.
I'm never sure voters of any kind are well placed to know if someone is up to the job. It's hard to tell anyway, but as senior figures who weren't at Williamson type tastings anyone might have a shot even if there should be enough evidence.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
All true - plus, it humiliates Johnson and Truss by demonstrating constructive dialogue is far more effective than performative confrontation. They will never forgive him but they look very yesterday today. This is a significant feather in Sunak’s cap - well done to him. He’s delivered a win for all non-loons. Some good news!
They wont forgive him, and will take 50-100 MPs with them in that lack of forgiveness.
Never forget they and, historically, voters want performative confrontation.
I think it will be a lower number than 50, but - yes - Sunak's deal is in the national interest and is good for him, but it will cause huge problems inside the Tory party.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
Given the level of sleaze and corruption, I’m surprised how many still think favourably of the Conservatives. They are better regarded than the Lib Dems, still, suggesting the latter won’t be coming back in their former heartlands.
Nor are Labour anything like as well-regarded as in the mid 90’s.
I can’t see anything other than a Labour victory next time, but I doubt if it will be a landslide. I’d expect a lead (in terms of votes) in the region of 43/35%.
I would interpret it differently.
The number seeing the Tories favourably reflects their national polling.
The numbers seeing Greens and LibDems positively considerably exceeds their national polling, giving potential upside to their voteshare in real elections, as we are likely to see in the May locals. It also shows considerable potential for tactical voting.
The Lib Dems, I’m really not sure what they are for. I’m not sure what they’re against.
They're against building in the shires. So are the Tories, but it will play well in a thde turning election.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
All true - plus, it humiliates Johnson and Truss by demonstrating constructive dialogue is far more effective than performative confrontation. They will never forgive him but they look very yesterday today. This is a significant feather in Sunak’s cap - well done to him. He’s delivered a win for all non-loons. Some good news!
They wont forgive him, and will take 50-100 MPs with them in that lack of forgiveness.
Never forget they and, historically, voters want performative confrontation.
I think it will be a lower number than 50, but - yes - Sunak's deal is in the national interest and is good for him, but it will cause huge problems inside the Tory party.
Depends on the DUP reaction to be used as pretext. Could get the rebels below 50 if he's done well.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
It's really very simple: the NI Assembly will not reconvene with a deal if the DUP do not like it, but it will not reconvene either if the government bows to the DUP and scraps the deal because Sinn Fein will then not take part. So the practical choice is:
1. A NIP deal, no Assembly, better relations with the EU and US
2. No NIP deal, no Assembly, a trade war with the EU and a strained relationship with the US.
Only one of those scenarios is in the national interest. And it is not 2.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
All true - plus, it humiliates Johnson and Truss by demonstrating constructive dialogue is far more effective than performative confrontation. They will never forgive him but they look very yesterday today. This is a significant feather in Sunak’s cap - well done to him. He’s delivered a win for all non-loons. Some good news!
They wont forgive him, and will take 50-100 MPs with them in that lack of forgiveness.
Never forget they and, historically, voters want performative confrontation.
I think it will be a lower number than 50, but - yes - Sunak's deal is in the national interest and is good for him, but it will cause huge problems inside the Tory party.
It does seem to be being heavily spun as a clause 4 type moment for Sunak.
I assume one reason still no deal announced us Sunak doesn't want to be accused like Cameron of getting a deal too quickly, even though presumably weeks and months have gone into it.
Might just be checking their phones and discussing the cricket (I assume as civilised diplomats the EU negotiators are into cricket despite its lack of popularity).
It's really very simple: the NI Assembly will not reconvene with a deal if the DUP do not like it, but it will not reconvene either if the government bows to the DUP and scraps the deal because Sinn Fein will then not take part. So the practical choice is:
1. A NIP deal, no Assembly, better relations with the EU and US
2. No NIP deal, no Assembly, a trade war with the EU and a strained relationship with the US.
Only one of those scenarios is in the national interest. And it is not 2.
We don't know what the deal is yet. I can wait a few days to find out, it might be important!
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
This is spot on:
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Yes, us Sunak fans get regularly lampooned on here for praising him, but he's good. Best PM since Cameron.
One day many more will see this.
He's better than Cameron, who was a terrible PM. I rate Rishi, it's mostly Tory supporters who don't!
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
All true - plus, it humiliates Johnson and Truss by demonstrating constructive dialogue is far more effective than performative confrontation. They will never forgive him but they look very yesterday today. This is a significant feather in Sunak’s cap - well done to him. He’s delivered a win for all non-loons. Some good news!
They wont forgive him, and will take 50-100 MPs with them in that lack of forgiveness.
Never forget they and, historically, voters want performative confrontation.
I think it will be a lower number than 50, but - yes - Sunak's deal is in the national interest and is good for him, but it will cause huge problems inside the Tory party.
It does seem to be being heavily spun as a clause 4 type moment for Sunak.
It sort of is. Boris's deal was presented as a 'got one over' the EU type affair, and blunted attacks we were at risk of, well, no deal. As its proponents now admit it was inadequate and so we nust assume only meant as a quick fix. Sunak is, presumably, trying to agree a long fix, an end to the cycle of bickering. The MPs and members who thrive on that may not want it - that's the 'any deal the EU would agree is unacceptable' crowd.
It sort of isn't though because it's more about a change of tactics than something with the appearance of substance.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
This is spot on:
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Yes, us Sunak fans get regularly lampooned on here for praising him, but he's good. Best PM since Cameron.
One day many more will see this.
He's better than Cameron, who was a terrible PM. I rate Rishi, it's mostly Tory supporters who don't!
he's never been really tested IMO, rock solid safe seat, didnt even win the membership vote - he's never really had to scale an electoral hill (let alone a mountain)...so too early to describe his premiership in such glowing(?) terms
It's really very simple: the NI Assembly will not reconvene with a deal if the DUP do not like it, but it will not reconvene either if the government bows to the DUP and scraps the deal because Sinn Fein will then not take part. So the practical choice is:
1. A NIP deal, no Assembly, better relations with the EU and US
2. No NIP deal, no Assembly, a trade war with the EU and a strained relationship with the US.
Only one of those scenarios is in the national interest. And it is not 2.
We don't know what the deal is yet. I can wait a few days to find out, it might be important!
Broadly, the UK actually implements some of the controls it agreed to in exchange for the EU agreeing to drop some of its other controls being implemented. The original deal was maximalist to the EU. I suspect this can be sold to most Tory MPs as an improvement. Bear in mind they voted for the maximalist deal.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Um we wouldn’t. 2 years ago the warehouse workers round here were on £10 or so an hour. Now they are on £12+ because unless you pay that your workforce has moved to the warehouse paying more.
That isn’t the case in the public sector so the strikes are going on because there isn’t wage completion for workers so wages are rising at well below the wages in other markets.
Now long term the issue will be fixed as public sector workers move to the private sector but because the work still needs to be done it just results in the public sector paying agencies to find workers while paying them a shed load more money.
Which is why I said it’s economically neutral to pay nhs nurses 20% more because that is less than is currently being spent paying agencies to fill the shift to minimum staffing levels.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
All true - plus, it humiliates Johnson and Truss by demonstrating constructive dialogue is far more effective than performative confrontation. They will never forgive him but they look very yesterday today. This is a significant feather in Sunak’s cap - well done to him. He’s delivered a win for all non-loons. Some good news!
They wont forgive him, and will take 50-100 MPs with them in that lack of forgiveness.
Never forget they and, historically, voters want performative confrontation.
I think it will be a lower number than 50, but - yes - Sunak's deal is in the national interest and is good for him, but it will cause huge problems inside the Tory party.
It does seem to be being heavily spun as a clause 4 type moment for Sunak.
It sort of is. Boris's deal was presented as a 'got one over' the EU type affair, and blunted attacks we were at risk of, well, no deal. As its proponents now admit it was inadequate and so we nust assume only meant as a quick fix. Sunak is, presumably, trying to agree a long fix, an end to the cycle of bickering. The MPs and members who thrive on that may not want it - that's the 'any deal the EU would agree is unacceptable' crowd.
It sort of isn't though because it's more about a change of tactics than something with the appearance of substance.
The genius of the Clause 4 moment was that Blair was pushing at an open door. He was not risking very much. Sunak is risking a hell of a lot. That makes this a much bigger deal, IMO.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
Absolutely, and rcs100´s comment about "behind the scenes" collaboration is on the money too.
Won´t make more than 10 seats difference in the coming Tory rout though.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Um we wouldn’t. 2 years ago the warehouse workers round here were on £10 or so an hour. Now they are on £12+ because unless you pay that your workforce has moved to the warehouse paying more.
That isn’t the case in the public sector so the strikes are going on because there isn’t wage completion for workers so wages are rising at well below the wages in other markets.
Now long term the issue will be fixed as public sector workers move to the private sector but because the work still needs to be done it just results in the public sector paying agencies to find workers while paying them a shed load more money.
Which is why I said it’s economically neutral to pay nhs nurses 20% more because that is less than is currently being spent paying agencies to fill the shift to minimum staffing levels.
You disagreed then typed out exactly the same thing I had said in different words as proof of your disagreement? Colour me puzzled
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
This is spot on:
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Yes, us Sunak fans get regularly lampooned on here for praising him, but he's good. Best PM since Cameron.
One day many more will see this.
He's better than Cameron, who was a terrible PM. I rate Rishi, it's mostly Tory supporters who don't!
he's never been really tested IMO, rock solid safe seat, didnt even win the membership vote - he's never really had to scale an electoral hill (let alone a mountain)...so too early to describe his premiership in such glowing(?) terms
True. But like many I just feel an enormous sense of relief after the last two.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
This is spot on:
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Yes, us Sunak fans get regularly lampooned on here for praising him, but he's good. Best PM since Cameron.
One day many more will see this.
He's better than Cameron, who was a terrible PM. I rate Rishi, it's mostly Tory supporters who don't!
he's never been really tested IMO, rock solid safe seat, didnt even win the membership vote - he's never really had to scale an electoral hill (let alone a mountain)...so too early to describe his premiership in such glowing(?) terms
Interesting that you're defining being a good PM purely in electoral terms rather than in terms of how well they do the job of dealing with the issues in their in-tray.
Clearly, electoral success is one important metric, and particularly a focus on a betting website. But it certainly isn't the only one.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Not just public sector, though clearly the unfilled vacancies in Health and Social Care and teaching suggest that even monopoly employers cannot buck the market for long.
A political party leadership contest is like lancing a boil – a necessary act of self-harm designed to relieve the building pressure and to return some sense of norm – but that in the moment, inflicts acute pain allowing the poison that’s been filling a void to spill over. It’s toxic, infectious, spreads a vile contagion that inflicts wounds, takes casualties, and causes lasting harm.
Just think the Milibands. And think on.
And so it is that the party acknowledged, even by its enemies, for its renowned ability to keep a lid on dissension and corral any sense of debate into the requisite group think, now exposes itself for having as many pustules to pop as any other.
Like teh Tories the blatant self funding , chicanery and general crookedness has gone too far. Be interesting as the interviews on the missing money reach The Magpie and Imelda an dhow they explain the £600K plus missing and the strange loan , seems to be no difference between Murrell and SNP accounts , all rather odd, yet not their biggest scandal by far.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Um we wouldn’t. 2 years ago the warehouse workers round here were on £10 or so an hour. Now they are on £12+ because unless you pay that your workforce has moved to the warehouse paying more.
That isn’t the case in the public sector so the strikes are going on because there isn’t wage completion for workers so wages are rising at well below the wages in other markets.
Now long term the issue will be fixed as public sector workers move to the private sector but because the work still needs to be done it just results in the public sector paying agencies to find workers while paying them a shed load more money.
Which is why I said it’s economically neutral to pay nhs nurses 20% more because that is less than is currently being spent paying agencies to fill the shift to minimum staffing levels.
You disagreed then typed out exactly the same thing I had said in different words as proof of your disagreement? Colour me puzzled
My first paragraph shows that your assumption is wrong - low paid tasks in the private sector have increased because of demand for workers - and it can’t be because of the number of workers arriving in the country because immigration numbers are still sky high.
I probably should have made the public sector bit a different post..
UPDATE: It turns out Panelbase also have net personal ratings for each candidate, and on those the gap between Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf is much, much wider.
I suspect there’s a lot of “Don’t knows” in there..
Does anyone else find it extraordinary that the SNP's hierarchy, whose brand of rampaging populism has scarcely been faulted in driving up the popularity of both the party and its defining issue in twenty years, appear to be seriously considering the incredibly useless (and as we can see from this, unpopular) Yousaf as their preferred candidate for the leadership?
I mean - seriously?
Either he's got hidden talents - in which case he's hiding them bloody well - or the party has lost its collective mind over transgender rights, or there is something waaaaay worse to come out about Forbes and Regan.
He is the Murrell's choice so all the butt lickers have to promote him as if not then the gravy train hits the buffers, the skeletons are likely to come out of thecupboard quicker , etc. Too many seat warmers wetting themselves at the thought of a new broom.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
Absolutely, and rcs100´s comment about "behind the scenes" collaboration is on the money too.
Won´t make more than 10 seats difference in the coming Tory rout though.
I actually don’t think Sunak is risking much - chucking 50 MPs who voted against him on this bill will remove the 50 most plausible Bozo supporter so making his position slightly less precarious
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
All true - plus, it humiliates Johnson and Truss by demonstrating constructive dialogue is far more effective than performative confrontation. They will never forgive him but they look very yesterday today. This is a significant feather in Sunak’s cap - well done to him. He’s delivered a win for all non-loons. Some good news!
They wont forgive him, and will take 50-100 MPs with them in that lack of forgiveness.
Never forget they and, historically, voters want performative confrontation.
I think it will be a lower number than 50, but - yes - Sunak's deal is in the national interest and is good for him, but it will cause huge problems inside the Tory party.
It does seem to be being heavily spun as a clause 4 type moment for Sunak.
It sort of is. Boris's deal was presented as a 'got one over' the EU type affair, and blunted attacks we were at risk of, well, no deal. As its proponents now admit it was inadequate and so we nust assume only meant as a quick fix. Sunak is, presumably, trying to agree a long fix, an end to the cycle of bickering. The MPs and members who thrive on that may not want it - that's the 'any deal the EU would agree is unacceptable' crowd.
It sort of isn't though because it's more about a change of tactics than something with the appearance of substance.
This deal if it happens is really about accepting reality. Both sides will have moved here. Reality in the case of Brexit is crap, always was and always will be. Sorry to have to make that necessary point. We are where we are.
Somewhat object to the misuse of the term "Ratner" here. Gerald Ratner had the self awareness that his stuff was always crap. The Tories not so much.
Yes. I think "to Ratner", properly used, refers to his mistake of admitting an uncomfortable and unappealing feature of the brand and its purchasers.
So it would be Sunak (or whoever) saying something like, "A huge number of our voters are furious gammons who liked huffing Johnson's absurd populist guff. I'm trying to soften the brand and get more serious to widen our appeal whilst keeping the moronic knuckle-draggers on board."
It'd be pretty much true, but quite a silly thing to say publicly.
Any movement on the members thoughts disagreeing with that endorsement state of play? A casual observer would be forgiven for thinking it's all over, but it doesn't feel so.
The 30 are the Sturgeon drones and gravy train specialists. They have most to lose as they are on the inside payroll. The others are deciding whether to grow a backbone or vote for more gravy and hoping the electorate don't crucify them for it.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Not just public sector, though clearly the unfilled vacancies in Health and Social Care and teaching suggest that even monopoly employers cannot buck the market for long.
Ultimately, people who train as teachers, doctors, care workers etc don't have to do those jobs for life; they can go off and do something else. Or they can work through an agency if that gives them a better income:hassle ratio, even if it costs the state more.
The market mechanism is slower and floppier than two shops on the same street competing for staff, but it's still there.
And then we're back at Thatcher's opinion on buckability.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Um we wouldn’t. 2 years ago the warehouse workers round here were on £10 or so an hour. Now they are on £12+ because unless you pay that your workforce has moved to the warehouse paying more.
That isn’t the case in the public sector so the strikes are going on because there isn’t wage completion for workers so wages are rising at well below the wages in other markets.
Now long term the issue will be fixed as public sector workers move to the private sector but because the work still needs to be done it just results in the public sector paying agencies to find workers while paying them a shed load more money.
Which is why I said it’s economically neutral to pay nhs nurses 20% more because that is less than is currently being spent paying agencies to fill the shift to minimum staffing levels.
You disagreed then typed out exactly the same thing I had said in different words as proof of your disagreement? Colour me puzzled
My first paragraph shows that your assumption is wrong - low paid tasks in the private sector have increased because of demand for workers - and it can’t be because of the number of workers arriving in the country because immigration numbers are still sky high.
I probably should have made the public sector bit a different post..
Immigration numbers haven't really changed its true....the bit you missed however is now immigration to work requires you to have a job paying 26k a year.....this is not what hospitality workers on min wage make so low skilled workers are in demand and companies are having to raise pay to compete.
ie those who had no hope pre brexit of getting off minimum wage because there was always enough staff to go round for those jobs are now for once finally seeing an uplift....something I would have thought someone on the left would be celebrating
25% favourable and definitely voting Tory on a pro Brexit ticket and 46% not unfavourable to the Conservatives and potential Conservative voters is still far more than the number who would vote for a Tory party promising to reverse Brexit.
Do that and they would be back to the 9% they got under May in the 2019 European elections and Farage and RefUK would be the main opposition on 20 to 30%
UPDATE: It turns out Panelbase also have net personal ratings for each candidate, and on those the gap between Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf is much, much wider.
I suspect there’s a lot of “Don’t knows” in there..
Does anyone else find it extraordinary that the SNP's hierarchy, whose brand of rampaging populism has scarcely been faulted in driving up the popularity of both the party and its defining issue in twenty years, appear to be seriously considering the incredibly useless (and as we can see from this, unpopular) Yousaf as their preferred candidate for the leadership?
I mean - seriously?
Either he's got hidden talents - in which case he's hiding them bloody well - or the party has lost its collective mind over transgender rights, or there is something waaaaay worse to come out about Forbes and Regan.
It’s Total Base vs SNP voters, let alone members. Yousaf is seen as “continuity Sturgeon” and seems to have the party machine behind him. How well that machine understands it’s members, let alone voters we shall shortly find out.
It's AV, right?
Let's assume, for the moment, Yousaf is first or second on first preferences.
I am wondering how transfer friendly he will be.
He doesn't offer red meat on independence. He's out of step with the Scottish public on gender reform as Forbes is on gay marriage, so those might cancel each other out. He can't point to a track record of competent government. He isn't even particularly left wing, although admittedly he's well to the left of the other two.
Why, if he is not somebody's first choice, would he be their second choice?
So I would have said at the moment he's the clear outsider. If Regan is third you would imagine her votes would break for Forbes ahead of Yousaf and it seems unlikely anyone will hit 50% on first preferences.
What puzzles me is why the SNP itself, until recently so surefooted in detecting and shaping public opinion, think otherwise. Either there is something here that we don't know about - which is eminently possible - or the meltdown they're in is far worse than it looks.
Equally, this is going to be a complex election with a lot of moving parts and there's still the whole campaign to go yet.
labour must be praying for Useless, he will finish off the SNP for sure.
Suggests if Forbes wins the SNP membership vote to become FM then like Truss she will end up with the problem that most of her party's representatives in Parliament didn’t want her
UPDATE: It turns out Panelbase also have net personal ratings for each candidate, and on those the gap between Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf is much, much wider.
I suspect there’s a lot of “Don’t knows” in there..
Does anyone else find it extraordinary that the SNP's hierarchy, whose brand of rampaging populism has scarcely been faulted in driving up the popularity of both the party and its defining issue in twenty years, appear to be seriously considering the incredibly useless (and as we can see from this, unpopular) Yousaf as their preferred candidate for the leadership?
I mean - seriously?
Either he's got hidden talents - in which case he's hiding them bloody well - or the party has lost its collective mind over transgender rights, or there is something waaaaay worse to come out about Forbes and Regan.
In the limited number of discussions that I've seen, supporting transgender rights has been seen as the most important determinant of which candidate to support.
This might look like they've lost their mind, but it's how I would react were there leadership candidates who I viewed as threatening gay or women's rights. It would be disqualifying. So they're left with only one candidate to consider before they get onto other questions like ability, independence strategy, economic policy, etc.
But, Yousaf is a terribly poor candidate.
He is also not a supporter of gay or women's rights and the public are vehemently against the planned destruction of women's rights by the SNP and their GRC crap bill.
Given the level of sleaze and corruption, I’m surprised how many still think favourably of the Conservatives. They are better regarded than the Lib Dems, still, suggesting the latter won’t be coming back in their former heartlands.
Nor are Labour anything like as well-regarded as in the mid 90’s.
I can’t see anything other than a Labour victory next time, but I doubt if it will be a landslide. I’d expect a lead (in terms of votes) in the region of 43/35%.
I would interpret it differently.
The number seeing the Tories favourably reflects their national polling.
The numbers seeing Greens and LibDems positively considerably exceeds their national polling, giving potential upside to their voteshare in real elections, as we are likely to see in the May locals. It also shows considerable potential for tactical voting.
I’m sure both parties will do well in the locals, but neither is relevant at Parliamentary level.
25% favourable and definitely voting Tory on a pro Brexit ticket and 46% not unfavourable to the Conservatives and potential Conservative voters is still far more than the number who would vote for a Tory party promising to reverse Brexit.
Do that and they would be back to the 9% they got under May in the 2019 European elections and Farage and RefUK would be the main opposition on 20 to 30%
UPDATE: It turns out Panelbase also have net personal ratings for each candidate, and on those the gap between Ms Forbes and Mr Yousaf is much, much wider.
I suspect there’s a lot of “Don’t knows” in there..
Does anyone else find it extraordinary that the SNP's hierarchy, whose brand of rampaging populism has scarcely been faulted in driving up the popularity of both the party and its defining issue in twenty years, appear to be seriously considering the incredibly useless (and as we can see from this, unpopular) Yousaf as their preferred candidate for the leadership?
I mean - seriously?
Either he's got hidden talents - in which case he's hiding them bloody well - or the party has lost its collective mind over transgender rights, or there is something waaaaay worse to come out about Forbes and Regan.
The US pre-Trump non insane section of the hierarchy of the Republican Party saw the advent of Trump among the membership. And selected the prize sub-donkey Jeb Bush as their anointed to oppose him.
There was one thing that everyone agree on in the US at that point. No more Bush’s for President.
Suggests if Forbes wins the SNP membership vote to become FM then like Truss she will end up with the problem that most of her party's representatives in Parliament didn’t want her
She seems more competent than Truss (not a high hurdle to clear, admittedly).
Suggests if Forbes wins the SNP membership vote to become FM then like Truss she will end up with the problem that most of her party's representatives in Parliament didn’t want her
Only the duff Sturgeon stooges, best sticking to something you know a little about sunshine.
"A group of MPs were on their way back to London on Sunday after an epic road trip delivering aid to Ukraine.
The cross-parliamentary group set off from Dover and drove across Europe to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.
Two Labour MPs – Alex Sobel and Anna McMorrin – made the journey together with their Conservative counterparts Kevin Foster and Scott Benton.
The group delivered medical equipment and de-mining tools. They dropped off a generator at a village close to the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv and the Belarus border."
There is no doubt whatsoever that Johnson and Truss have ratnered the conservative brand and for a one nation conservative like myself what is most depressing is they just cannot see it and indeed seem intent on going down in a ball of flames and taking the party with them
Even this morning Conhome survey 41% do not back Sunak's NI proposals even though they have not been published and apparently toxic Johnson responding to his former colleague Robert Buckland said 'F... America' which simply takes one's breath away
My hope is Sunak faces down the ERG and the DUP and in so doing demonstrates his willingness to do the right thing
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
This is spot on:
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Yes, us Sunak fans get regularly lampooned on here for praising him, but he's good. Best PM since Cameron.
One day many more will see this.
He's better than Cameron, who was a terrible PM. I rate Rishi, it's mostly Tory supporters who don't!
Rishi reminds me a lot of John Major. Moderately competent at day-to-day governing, but completely useless at the Vision Thing or inspiring people, and unable to control difficult colleagues, either in Cabinet or the Parliamentary Party.
He would make a decent junior minister, or even one of the less important Cabinet posts, but would be out of his depth as PM, even without the disastrous political situation bequeathed to him by Truss.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Not sure about good data. The best I could find was this bit of research using job ads.
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
This is spot on:
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Yes, us Sunak fans get regularly lampooned on here for praising him, but he's good. Best PM since Cameron.
One day many more will see this.
He's better than Cameron, who was a terrible PM. I rate Rishi, it's mostly Tory supporters who don't!
Rishi reminds me a lot of John Major. Moderately competent at day-to-day governing, but completely useless at the Vision Thing or inspiring people, and unable to control difficult colleagues, either in Cabinet or the Parliamentary Party.
He would make a decent junior minister, or even one of the less important Cabinet posts, but would be out of his depth as PM, even without the disastrous political situation bequeathed to him by Truss.
Major did win against the odds in 1992 too after ten years of the Tories in power. So Rishi would hope to repeat that
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Perhaps more to the point: Is there a shortage of nurses in Germany?
There are preliminary Q3 2022 figures. Inflation was pretty high by that point. Annual earnings growth was only 3.2% in Ireland, so well below inflation.
Not another Brexit thread. See all of you tomorrow I've got better ways to spend my Sunday!
Bit of a misrepresentation Max - SNP leadership, LD prospects, and the Tory brand being discussed today, as well as the B-word.
He did not want to say he was off looking for more £7 tins of Tuna.
My current issue is finding anyone who still imports Manner wafers into the UK. Amazon has stopped selling them
Lidl used to sell them during their Alpine food week. Might be worth signing up for their marketing emails to catch them when they're in stock again?
The requires going to Lidl. I’m a Booths man personally..,
And I fear it will be like finding the protein items my wife needs in Aldi. Unless you hit incredibly lucky with the delivery not a hope in hell of actually getting them. Granted however a particular brand of wafer is something very few other people would care about.
From guido on Twitter watching the Sunday politics programs
“Lord” Frost on NI Protocol: “The Core Problem is the Imposition of EU Law in Northern Ireland Without Consent”
Didn’t NI vote to remain in the EU? I think you could argue that is enough consent.
He wants another referendum?
Not quite - his argument is that no consent exits because we voted to leave the EU. my argument was that there is proven consent within Northern Ireland because they voted to stay in the EU
FPT - the point of the NI protocol deal isn't just to sort out intra UK trade & relations and restore power sharing in the province, important though both those things are, it's also to normalise relations with the EU and the USA as well.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
This is spot on:
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Yes, us Sunak fans get regularly lampooned on here for praising him, but he's good. Best PM since Cameron.
One day many more will see this.
He's better than Cameron, who was a terrible PM. I rate Rishi, it's mostly Tory supporters who don't!
Rishi reminds me a lot of John Major. Moderately competent at day-to-day governing, but completely useless at the Vision Thing or inspiring people, and unable to control difficult colleagues, either in Cabinet or the Parliamentary Party.
He would make a decent junior minister, or even one of the less important Cabinet posts, but would be out of his depth as PM, even without the disastrous political situation bequeathed to him by Truss.
Major did win against the odds in 1992 too after ten years of the Tories in power. So Rishi would hope to repeat that
He would, but Major had poll leads after he took over, and was never 20 points behind in 1991 or 1992.
History never repeats itself exactly, and two years is a long time, but I'd say 1997 is looking much more likely than 1992 at this stage.
The only thing that may prevent it is that Starmer is just as uncharismatic as Sunak, unlike Blair, who for all his many faults could at least inspire some people (though never me).
Not only did N.I. vote Remain in 2016, 18 years previously, the DUP had stood opposed to the Good Friday agreement. One might think there's something of a democratic deficit over there.
There is no doubt whatsoever that Johnson and Truss have ratnered the conservative brand and for a one nation conservative like myself what is most depressing is they just cannot see it and indeed seem intent on going down in a ball of flames and taking the party with them
Even this morning Conhome survey 41% do not back Sunak's NI proposals even though they have not been published and apparently toxic Johnson responding to his former colleague Robert Buckland said 'F... America' which simply takes one's breath away
My hope is Sunak faces down the ERG and the DUP and in so doing demonstrates his willingness to do the right thing
One never ceases to be struck by the profundity of Johnson's intellect. His parents should have sent him to a decent comprehensive.
A belated good morning, one and all. I can’t see how the Tories are going to square the circle in Northern Ireland. It would appear that the DUP think they’ve got them over a barrel and won’t agree to anything anyone else proposes.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Perhaps more to the point: Is there a shortage of nurses in Germany?
Well, the one, pre inflation spike pay deal I could find was x years at a couple of percent.
If we are to believe Malcolm, then the SNP are in almost as much trouble as the Tories South of the border. However, the polling results don’t seem to suggest that.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Perhaps more to the point: Is there a shortage of nurses in Germany?
Germany's healthcare system is in some disarray, albeit probably not as bad as the NHS. This seems to be due to a dysfunctional insurance arrangement.
If we are to believe Malcolm, then the SNP are in almost as much trouble as the Tories South of the border. However, the polling results don’t seem to suggest that.
OKC, I say that only if they stick with Sturgeon acolyte Humza Useless, he will be a carbon copy of the chicanery and misguided policies while the country burns. We need someone interested in independence and also interested in sorting the countries problems rather than the current clique who only care about keeping power and enriching themselves and their chums. Current leadership are not a lot unlike the Tories running the show down south.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Perhaps more to the point: Is there a shortage of nurses in Germany?
Germany's healthcare system is in some disarray, albeit probably not as bad as the NHS. This seems to be due to a dysfunctional insurance arrangement.
So we didn’t set up their healthcare system? After the war? Did we leave it to the Americans? They seem to be the experts in dysfunctional insurance based healthcare systems!
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Perhaps more to the point: Is there a shortage of nurses in Germany?
Germany's healthcare system is in some disarray, albeit probably not as bad as the NHS. This seems to be due to a dysfunctional insurance arrangement.
So we didn’t set up their healthcare system? After the war? Did we leave it to the Americans? They seem to be the experts in dysfunctional insurance based healthcare systems!
Seems to still be fundamentally a development of Bismarck's system from 1883.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Perhaps more to the point: Is there a shortage of nurses in Germany?
Germany's healthcare system is in some disarray, albeit probably not as bad as the NHS. This seems to be due to a dysfunctional insurance arrangement.
So we didn’t set up their healthcare system? After the war? Did we leave it to the Americans? They seem to be the experts in dysfunctional insurance based healthcare systems!
There are better managed insurance based healthcare systems than Germany. (and indeed USA, which hardly counts as a "system")
My takeaway is not to try to change your system to something else. Try to make what you have work.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Anyone got some good data on what is happening with pay in Europe? Are the German nurses getting inflation+ ?
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
Perhaps more to the point: Is there a shortage of nurses in Germany?
Germany's healthcare system is in some disarray, albeit probably not as bad as the NHS. This seems to be due to a dysfunctional insurance arrangement.
So we didn’t set up their healthcare system? After the war? Did we leave it to the Americans? They seem to be the experts in dysfunctional insurance based healthcare systems!
There are better managed insurance based healthcare systems than Germany. (and indeed USA, which hardly counts as a "system")
My takeaway is not to try to change your system to something else. Try to make what you have work.
The forgotten “other option” for the NHS was real “National Insurance” and a mix of state run and private provision.
Mr. Boy, two things: the decision was made on political rather than economic grounds. And that economic argument was the strength of the EU case but it was made incredibly poorly during a campaign that was remarkable for having two terrible sides.
They weren't trying to understand why it happened but how it could make sense from an economic POV, hence their confusion. The Americans think we're nuts.
It did make economic sense for the people who voted for it:
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
So why are those workers, many in areas full of vacancies, on strike because of real terms pay cuts?
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
And if we had stayed in the EU we would still have the inflation we have as we can see by looking at the inflation rates in EU countries, however those min wage workers would still be on min wage rather than having had pay rises to attract workers.
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
Um we wouldn’t. 2 years ago the warehouse workers round here were on £10 or so an hour. Now they are on £12+ because unless you pay that your workforce has moved to the warehouse paying more.
That isn’t the case in the public sector so the strikes are going on because there isn’t wage completion for workers so wages are rising at well below the wages in other markets.
Now long term the issue will be fixed as public sector workers move to the private sector but because the work still needs to be done it just results in the public sector paying agencies to find workers while paying them a shed load more money.
Which is why I said it’s economically neutral
to pay nhs nurses 20% more because that is less than is currently being spent paying agencies to
fill the shift to minimum staffing levels.
You disagreed then typed out exactly the same thing I had said in different words as proof of your disagreement? Colour me puzzled
I find the LD figures a bit depressing. Traditionally people did not seem to view them unfavourable and were quite favourable to them, even if they did not intend to vote for them. In fact it was quite rare (and notable) to find people who disliked them so those figures are not good.
The Conservative figure for the favourable rating of 25% does not surprise me, but one wonders what they have to do to lose that 25%. Literally eat babies?
Comments
Just think the Milibands. And think on.
And so it is that the party acknowledged, even by its enemies, for its renowned ability to keep a lid on dissension and corral any sense of debate into the requisite group think, now exposes itself for having as many pustules to pop as any other.
https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,kate-forbes-should-have-searched-for-answers-in-her-own-ministerial-legacy-not-the-bible
It is pretty much public sector workers on strike not hospitality workers etc and the pay rises for the public sector have never really had any connection with market forces
1. A NIP deal, no Assembly, better relations with the EU and US
2. No NIP deal, no Assembly, a trade war with the EU and a strained relationship with the US.
Only one of those scenarios is in the national interest. And it is not 2.
Might just be checking their phones and discussing the cricket (I assume as civilised diplomats the EU negotiators are into cricket despite its lack of popularity).
It sort of isn't though because it's more about a change of tactics than something with the appearance of substance.
That isn’t the case in the public sector so the strikes are going on because there isn’t wage completion for workers so wages are rising at well below the wages in other markets.
Now long term the issue will be fixed as public sector workers move to the private sector but because the work still needs to be done it just results in the public sector paying agencies to find workers while paying them a shed load more money.
Which is why I said it’s economically neutral to pay nhs nurses 20% more because that is less than is currently being spent paying agencies to fill the shift to minimum staffing levels.
Won´t make more than 10 seats difference in the coming Tory rout though.
Clearly, electoral success is one important metric, and particularly a focus on a betting website. But it certainly isn't the only one.
Amazon workers for example in Coventry.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jan/25/first-uk-industrial-action-against-amazon-is-making-an-impact-says-gmb
I probably should have made the public sector bit a different post..
Apologies to the forum.
So it would be Sunak (or whoever) saying something like, "A huge number of our voters are furious gammons who liked huffing Johnson's absurd populist guff. I'm trying to soften the brand and get more serious to widen our appeal whilst keeping the moronic knuckle-draggers on board."
It'd be pretty much true, but quite a silly thing to say publicly.
Gratitude
The market mechanism is slower and floppier than two shops on the same street competing for staff, but it's still there.
And then we're back at Thatcher's opinion on buckability.
ie those who had no hope pre brexit of getting off minimum wage because there was always enough staff to go round for those jobs are now for once finally seeing an uplift....something I would have thought someone on the left would be celebrating
Do that and they would be back to the 9% they got under May in the 2019 European elections and Farage and RefUK would be the main opposition on 20 to 30%
I paraphrase but not much.
Even many Scots don’t seem to want leave us now, the only people who seem down on Britain are the British.
Point A: who is ‘us’?
Point B: the Scots aren’t British?
Some top stuff on the Free Church and the oppressiveness of the religion of Woke to round it off.
There was one thing that everyone agree on in the US at that point. No more Bush’s for President.
"A group of MPs were on their way back to London on Sunday after an epic road trip delivering aid to Ukraine.
The cross-parliamentary group set off from Dover and drove across Europe to the western Ukrainian city of Lviv.
Two Labour MPs – Alex Sobel and Anna McMorrin – made the journey together with their Conservative counterparts Kevin Foster and Scott Benton.
The group delivered medical equipment and de-mining tools. They dropped off a generator at a village close to the Ukrainian city of Chernihiv and the Belarus border."
There is no doubt whatsoever that Johnson and Truss have ratnered the conservative brand and for a one nation conservative like myself what is most depressing is they just cannot see it and indeed seem intent on going down in a ball of flames and taking the party with them
Even this morning Conhome survey 41% do not back Sunak's NI proposals even though they have not been published and apparently toxic Johnson responding to his former colleague Robert Buckland said 'F... America' which simply takes one's breath away
My hope is Sunak faces down the ERG and the DUP and in so doing demonstrates his willingness to do the right thing
He would make a decent junior minister, or even one of the less important Cabinet posts, but would be out of his depth as PM, even without the disastrous political situation bequeathed to him by Truss.
The items I could find were pre the big inflation spike.
https://www.centralbank.ie/news/article/research-indicates-wage-growth-increased-sharply-in-early-2022-9-November-2022
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-elcq/earningsandlabourcostsq22022finalq32022preliminaryestimates/
Though both were indeed taking the piss.
“Lord” Frost on NI Protocol: “The Core Problem is the Imposition of EU Law in Northern Ireland Without Consent”
Didn’t NI vote to remain in the EU? I think you could argue that is enough consent.
And I fear it will be like finding the protein items my wife needs in Aldi. Unless you hit incredibly lucky with the delivery not a hope in hell of actually getting them. Granted however a particular brand of wafer is something very few other people would care about.
update - didn't see eek's comment, I'm sure he knows better.
History never repeats itself exactly, and two years is a long time, but I'd say 1997 is looking much more likely than 1992 at this stage.
The only thing that may prevent it is that Starmer is just as uncharismatic as Sunak, unlike Blair, who for all his many faults could at least inspire some people (though never me).
Run her in Islington North. Perfect.
I can’t see how the Tories are going to square the circle in Northern Ireland. It would appear that the DUP think they’ve got them over a barrel and won’t agree to anything anyone else proposes.
https://news.bloombergtax.com/payroll/germany-to-increase-nursing-minimum-wages
https://www.epsu.org/article/germany-latest-agreement-boost-pay-health-and-care
https://twitter.com/AlexNeilSNP/status/1629783389271126017
Did we leave it to the Americans? They seem to be the experts in dysfunctional insurance based healthcare systems!
My takeaway is not to try to change your system to something else. Try to make what you have work.
When he talks about D-Day, and so on i sometimes wonder which way his gun was pointing.
Teddies ejected from perambulator.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/26/sunak-warned-of-tory-chaos-northern-ireland-protocol-deal-tory-brexit-dup-eu-court
And good morning OKC! (well, everyone).
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2023/02/25/hse-to-develop-new-plan-for-the-treatment-of-gender-dysphoria/
The Swiss electrified their railways to a considerable extent, ISTR, before KEVII even got his ample posterior on the throne.
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/
Edit - https://www.reddit.com/r/cars/comments/2iql6h/how_and_why_cars_are_expensive_in_norway_tax/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Gives a practical example….
https://www.austrianfood.co.uk/manner-neapolitan-wafers-original-schnitten
https://www.piccantino.co.uk/manner/neapolitan-wafers
(I ordered some stuff from the Austrian Food place during lockdown times and didn't have any problems - ymmv of course)
I find the LD figures a bit depressing. Traditionally people did not seem to view them unfavourable and were quite favourable to them, even if they did not intend to vote for them. In fact it was quite rare (and notable) to find people who disliked them so those figures are not good.
The Conservative figure for the favourable rating of 25% does not surprise me, but one wonders what they have to do to lose that 25%. Literally eat babies?