Categories
The Tories have Ratnered their brand – politicalbetting.com
The Tories have Ratnered their brand – politicalbetting.com
This is grim reading for the Tories, and whilst Sunak does poll better than his party the trend is Sunak’s ratings are moving closer to the Tory Party’s ratings.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
But it's hard to argue that Brexit has been a success for the UK, let alone a brilliant success.
And remember, before the referendum Brexiteers made everything about the EU. All the ills that faced the country were, in their eyes (or to be fair, some of them) down to EU membership. And it worked for them.
Unless Leavers (who are now almost entirely Tories) stop attacking the straw man of "Remainers" for the inevitable failures of Brexit, and start trying to create a new national consensus they will serve no future purpose except to be a terrible warning of the dangers of hubris and about as relevant to the future of this country as gas lighting and the poor house.
Leavers have still not been able to create a national consensus, mostly because there is still no Leave consensus on what Brexit should be. Fantasies about "Singapore-on-Thames" run pretty hollow in Stoke-on-Trent. The hard yards on creating a viable, unifying national vision are not going to be put in by Rees Mogg´s butler either.
The ERG and ancillary nutters still refuse any compromises with anything EU (like the NI protocol), even though that is self-evidently the right way forward, at least in the short-medium term and is becoming increasingly critical if we are going to save significant parts of of our economy from the wreck. It has been the abject failure of the nutters to offer any compromises that has shown the voters that a large number of Brexiters are fanatics pure and simple who have been prepared to destroy orderly government and large chunks of our constitution for their own narrow political ends. The failure to be straight about the economic costs and the chicanery about getting legislation through Parliament are also profoundly corrosive of public trust. Such obvious cheating offends the British sense of fair play very deeply.
So, yeah, the Tories have Ratnered their brand. Thing is, that even if Sunak can do a few moderate and stabilizing things in the remainder of his time in office, all we will remember of the Tories is the absolute fiasco of the past three years. Overweening arrogance, invincible ignorance and abject incompetence, the result of Brexit fanatics refusing to engage with the British spirit of compromise and instead hectoring us about it being "for our own good".
This country will chuck the Turnip Taliban and their BDSM Brexit onto the scrapheap of history at the first chance its gets. Whether the Tories ever recover is an open question. No one can now believe that Conservatives are moderates who defend us against extremists, when every day for the last few years extremist and divisive drivel has been their stock-in-trade.
The critical moment was when they went for Boris Johnson over Jeremy Hunt. It was a shot of drugs, a short term high with a substantial long term cost that was obvious from the outset.
Football: surprised that of the two EPL bets it was Liverpool not to win rather than West Ham likewise that came off. Solid victory for the Hammers.
F1: Aston Martin still looking to have improved significantly, likewise Alfa Romeo.
The intransigence was far from one way. See also Dominic Grieve, demanding a concession, getting it, then shrieking in the chamber it was too late and voting against the very thing he had sought.
Or consider the multi-party promise of a referendum on Lisbon, only to be shamelessly reneged upon.
The British spirit of compromise has not politically existed for quite some time when it comes to the EU.
Alonso is 17. Stroll is 151.
If you have a free bet, each way on one of them might well be worth a look.
From that, lots of things follow - including more help to sort out small boats, and lifting the threat of a trade dispute, which should help investment and the economy.
This is a big barnacle off Sunak's boat.
However, instead of arguing about the past, we should agree that we need a national consensus for the future and try and work out what it could be.
Thoughts?
Everyone was intransigent about this and 2017-2019 really were terrible years where no-one covered themselves in glory.
Posters on the other side should remind themselves that frustration and incandescence, from an electoral point of view, can absolutely work both ways on this issue.
Those who are pro- and anti-EU are fine, but those who take it the nth degree are simply zealots who get in the way of a pragmatic and practical approach to politics, and the national interest.
Multilateral or bilateral (you could view it either way between the UK and EU/EU member states) co-operation on areas of mutual interest would help foster good relations too, perhaps the most obvious being, once the war is finally done, economic development in Ukraine.
That would be both a moral and self-interested good thing as it would help the country recover more rapidly while also drawing it into the general European (ie non-crazy Russian) economic sphere, also meaning greater prosperity over the long term for Ukraine.
Shade sleepy so apologies if any/all of that is rambly, vague, or spelled badly.
Importantly, my Napoli tip to win Serie A is looking very nice right now.
Indeed, the last 12 months has been - in an a low key way - very good for EU-UK relations.
Firstly, the UK's stalwart support for Ukraine has not gone unnoticed across the continent. Our ready willingness to share intelligence, and to be the first to commit to weapons has been enormously appreciated, especially from those who wished to act but who were constrained by history.
Secondly, there's been an awful lot of positive behind the scenes energy stuff. In particular, incoming LNG cargoes have often been diverted in a surprisingly selfless way to try and ensure supplies remained ample across Europe. Indeed: I'd say there's probably been better coordination than when we were in the EU - and all thanks to the fact that Putin forced the EU, the UK and Norway to work together.
Thirdly, Sunak is a *much* less divisive character across Europe. He doesn't raise hackles. While a Leaver, he's not spent his time demonising the EU. And that's meant that when he's gone in asking for things, people genuinely believe he's sincere in looking for a deal.
My suspicion is that Sunak will be quite well regarded by history, but not by voters.
Labour peer admits ‘oversight’ after not including role with the Lionel Cooke Memorial Fund in register of interests
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/02/25/wes-streeting-jess-phillips-failed-register-investment-labour/ (£££)
Small earthquake in Chile, and in any case these unpaid directorships of a fund that gives money to the Labour Party will be registered from Wednesday, 1st March, when the rules change to specify that unpaid directorships must be registered.
Nonetheless, it does show a degree of carelessness and even complacency on the one hand, and increased scrutiny on the other. Cynics can't help wondering if the revelation was being held back for a more impactful time, until scooped by the rules change.
The story also includes a list of new, significant Labour donors.
And that's why Sunak works. He's not May - who was simultaneously weak and desperate to demonstrate her new Leave credentials. Nor Johnson, who was happy to trash talk on Sunday the same people he'd sit down with on Monday. He's quiet and deliberative, and while he's a Leaver, he's doing it because he thinks Brexit is right for Britain, not because he thinks the EU is intrinsically evil.
(I've posted it on the right one this time, but truthfully it makes sense on the last thread too.)
Johnson's deal made sense to him. He saw Brexit about bringing as many powers as possible to Westminster and f£#@ everyone and everything else.
What does Sunak, deep down see Brexit as being about?
Scottish voters think the next First Minister should not prioritise independence and should drop gender recognition reforms entirely.
https://twitter.com/DeanMThomson/status/1629556158238281728?s=20
However a difference is that, when we were in the EU, there were a large number of obvious benefits, the government now have about 7 years to demonstrate some benefits of being outside the EU.
And its revealing of his electoral approach: he thinks he can recreate Major in '92, but if even allowed to get to the ballot box, he's going to go down like Major in '97...
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-rishi-sunaks-mais-lecture-2022
A year ago, never got much coverage for understandable reasons.
Tarriff reform would be a great start. Making it cheaper for the consumer to buy food, for example. As would varying more VAT rates.
Please, for the love of God, let's not have many different VAT rates for different types of product.
Nor are Labour anything like as well-regarded as in the mid 90’s.
I can’t see anything other than a Labour victory next time, but I doubt if it will be a landslide. I’d expect a lead (in terms of votes) in the region of 43/35%.
Kate Forbes: +14
Humza Yousaf: -16
Regan reported as -3
https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2023/02/kate-forbes-holds-clear-lead-in-yet.html?m=1
I suspect there’s a lot of “Don’t knows” in there..
those enduring principles of free market economics: sound money, respect for the rule of law, protections for private property rights, openness and free trade, a stable relationship with allies, regulation that encourages competition and innovation
he certainly dropped a bollock by backing Johnson, and it's not obvious that he hasn't dropped a bollock by backing Brexit. The single market isn't a perfect free market, but he may have made the mistake of letting the best be the enemy of the good.
I mean - seriously?
Either he's got hidden talents - in which case he's hiding them bloody well - or the party has lost its collective mind over transgender rights, or there is something waaaaay worse to come out about Forbes and Regan.
For the first time, completed all the objectives. 96% rating: "Scipio the Strong".
Carthage was actually one of the last cities I took. However, by that time I'd out-researched the Carthaginians so did it with musketeers, cannon and ironclads.
Not sure wholly realistic but, still, a win is a win.
I'd say Labour 40% and Tories at 29-30%.
One day many more will see this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/64772999
Parr… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1629588167920590850
What always intrigued me is that she's also the most liberal Democratic I've ever met as well. A Sanders admirer.
Which only goes to show - the world's a complicated place.
No American would ever dream of joining a EU-type organisation.
@MrJonDePlume: Surely she should just stop in the first constituency she arrives in.
Suella Braverman struggles to find safe seat for next election
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ea840abc-b480-11ed-abc9-a9456bea4494?shareToken=ff5741e65ea8ca672da9c914d8a354a7
Wages for British workers will rise in the event of a Brexit, head of 'in' campaign, Lord Rose says
Lord Rose, the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union, suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in the event of a Brexit
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181385/Wages-for-British-workers-will-rise-in-the-event-of-a-Brexit-head-of-in-campaign-says.html
Let's assume, for the moment, Yousaf is first or second on first preferences.
I am wondering how transfer friendly he will be.
He doesn't offer red meat on independence. He's out of step with the Scottish public on gender reform as Forbes is on gay marriage, so those might cancel each other out. He can't point to a track record of competent government. He isn't even particularly left wing, although admittedly he's well to the left of the other two.
Why, if he is not somebody's first choice, would he be their second choice?
So I would have said at the moment he's the clear outsider. If Regan is third you would imagine her votes would break for Forbes ahead of Yousaf and it seems unlikely anyone will hit 50% on first preferences.
What puzzles me is why the SNP itself, until recently so surefooted in detecting and shaping public opinion, think otherwise. Either there is something here that we don't know about - which is eminently possible - or the meltdown they're in is far worse than it looks.
Equally, this is going to be a complex election with a lot of moving parts and there's still the whole campaign to go yet.
It's just that prices have risen faster, which was always a reasonable bet.
We've talked about the parallels between Irish and Scottish independence recently, and in terms of how it took decades for Ireland to stop looking backwards and concentrate on how it was different to Britain, there are parallels now in that the obsession with Brexit means that it is impossible for Britain to do the normal politics that might bring improvements to the country. The question of reforming property taxation, for example, hasn't got a chance of happening because it isn't related to the EU at all.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/heres-how-snp-leadership-elections-work/
It depends on which issue most motivates the members. “Independence or bust” is Regan’s pitch, and both she and Forbes are not in favour of the GRR bill as it currently stands. Forbes pitch is “competence” which is an act Yousaf would struggle with, so it depends on which issues are most important to members….
On the other, won’t it be great when everything that “Lord” David Frost stands for is very loudly and publicly repudiated?
Candidate: Backers (MSPs/MPs)
Yousaf: 30 (20/10)
Forbes: 9 (7/2)
Regan: 1 (0/1)
None Yet: 63 (32/31)
None: 3 (2/1)
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1629573709705953281?s=20
I do hope Sunak does this though, somebody needs to face down the Brexit hardliners.
That doesn't mean he wasn't better than PMs that came *before* Cameron as well, by the way.
He easily beats Gordon Brown too.
Ironically, at 3mins33s the line could be subtitled genuinely. Der Krieg ist verloren = the war is lost.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyFWKgdZFSE
This might look like they've lost their mind, but it's how I would react were there leadership candidates who I viewed as threatening gay or women's rights. It would be disqualifying. So they're left with only one candidate to consider before they get onto other questions like ability, independence strategy, economic policy, etc.
LD to win more than 40 seats at next GE
Ladbrokes evens
Skybet 2/1
The only thing of any real interest in there is the focus on business investment (he wants to increase tax incentives), and the proposed increase in government R&D spending.
I don’t have any issue with either of those things, but both as an analysis of the UK’s structural problems, and as a response to the challenge of Brexit, it’s pitifully thin stuff.
The bits about education, I don’t really even believe, given the government’s record.
To be fair, it’s more constructive than anything his immediate predecessors have ever said.
The problem of shrinking the economy is that there is less for everyone.
Never forget they and, historically, voters want performative confrontation.
(Granted they tend to be less likely to vote.)
It really doesn't matter how low your opinion of JRM is. Regardless of the other qualities of the other two candidates, there's no way that most righties could contemplate supporting a candidate who would dispose of Britain's nuclear deterrent.
That's essentially the situation for the SNP members who supported the GRR Bill.
So we are back to something similar to that presented by May only goes on to demonstrate what abject negotiators Johnson and Frost were.
The number seeing the Tories favourably reflects their national polling.
The numbers seeing Greens and LibDems positively considerably exceeds their national polling, giving potential upside to their voteshare in real elections, as we are likely to see in the May locals. It also shows considerable potential for tactical voting.
ERG chief Mark Francois says that unless EU law is expunged - no longer applies - in NI they won’t back the deal. “Scaling back”, as Raab suggested, isn’t enough
Mark doesn’t seem top have grasped the fact Rishi can do this without a vote.
But the sane thing for the Tory party would be for Rishi to hold a vote - bin all Tory MPs who voted against him and then run a minority government because none of those ERG members will be able to do a thing about it and will be clutching the hope that they get readmitted to the Tory party before an election is called.