There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
You’ve admitted a slightly higher standard of bot in recent months. What’s happened with this one ? It doesn’t seem to be fully functioning.
Yeah, we are being insulted by such a pisspoor troll.
Russia has obviously run out of the articulate ones, alongside 21st century tanks, missiles, and missile cruisers.
They are down to the barrel bottom.
No, I think it’s the date. Just checked Twitter and Putin’s trolls are out in unusual force tonight. Possibly makes the strategic genius feel slightly better.
Meanwhile, here’s a demonstration in Berlin outside the Russia embassy.
This debate reinforces the fact that Fukuyama was right: there is no coherent alternative vision for economics and political organisation that threatens capitalistic liberal democracy.
Many vassal states and autocracies have populations that yearn to join the Western world. Millions year round travel hundreds of miles and endure untold indignities to make a new life in Europe or the US. No Western populations yearn to be more like Russia, or more like China, or Syria or Venezuela or Iran.
Immigration flows (real or attempted) are a great proxy for economic and cultural success. The more people banging on the door, the more successful the country - and the more able to pick the brightest and best to keep growing the economy.
And it's also why it is the interests of Western liberal democracies to get their neighbours richer and more democratic: simply, it means that the likelihood their citizens will be climbing on boats and trying to get to your country is reduced.
I disagree. People are attracted by the money in the west but many despise the social policies in the west....from gay marriage and trans rights to extreme feminism....Putin alluded to this in his speech
Can you give us an example of extreme feminism? Is it along the lines of giving the gentle flowers the vote?
well constant banging on about a non existent pay gap is what many would count as extreme feminism...pure divisive rhetoric
Lol. if that is extreme feminism I would hate to think what you think mild is. Would we notice?
so you think there is a pay gap do you...not true young women outearn young men in their 20s...thats extreme feminism twisting and denying reality
Well yes I do, but that wasn't the point. The point is you referring to it as extreme. What the hell would mild feminism be then?
Presumably littering should also be cracked down with the full force of the law being an extreme crime. Hang draw and quartering would be too good for them.
Time to call out the DUP and ERG and do the deal Rishi
The ERG (and its precursors) have played an absolute blinder throughout, from getting the referendum in the first place, to getting the Leave/Remain question, to campaigning for Cab Mins to be able to support Leave, to preventing the May deal getting through Parliament, etc etc.
If Rishi's deal is less than optimum for the UK, the ERG will call it out. And it will hasten his departure....
I don't agree, the ERG became hyper-radicalised and dogmatic somewhere along the way.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
Is it true that its cheaper to shred roubles to make hamster bedding than buy bedding with roubles?
Time to call out the DUP and ERG and do the deal Rishi
The ERG (and its precursors) have played an absolute blinder throughout, from getting the referendum in the first place, to getting the Leave/Remain question, to campaigning for Cab Mins to be able to support Leave, to preventing the May deal getting through Parliament, etc etc.
If Rishi's deal is less than optimum for the UK, the ERG will call it out. And it will hasten his departure....
The problem, of course, comes if the ERG cries foul and Sunak calls their bluff. If you get two-thirds or more of the Parliamentary Tory Party backing the Prime Minister, and him getting the terms through Parliament with the help of Labour votes, then what do the sceptics do about it other than grumble? Try to remove the PM and replace him with either Boris Johnson (whom most Tory MPs fought tooth and nail to get rid of only last year,) or the third consecutive figure not tested by the public at a General Election? It's that old adage about the first rule in politics being the ability to count: most Conservative MPs aren't ERG members and they're not going to welcome the advent as Prime Minister of some militant figure who will attempt to rip up the agreement they've just voted for, and initiate useless political and economic hostilities with Brussels.
The Rees-Mogg brigade are a bunch of paper tigers whose power derives entirely from the timidity of the party leader in failing to face them down. The nanosecond that happens, they have no recourse left except to pull down the entire temple around them and be eradicated by Labour in the ensuing General Election.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
Putin really is clever. He must have engineered this so that Ukraine joins the Eurozone to create a stronger rival to the Dollar.
Time to call out the DUP and ERG and do the deal Rishi
The ERG (and its precursors) have played an absolute blinder throughout, from getting the referendum in the first place, to getting the Leave/Remain question, to campaigning for Cab Mins to be able to support Leave, to preventing the May deal getting through Parliament, etc etc.
If Rishi's deal is less than optimum for the UK, the ERG will call it out. And it will hasten his departure....
If ever there was a reason not to vote Conservative, getting the ERG well away from the corridors of power provides one!
This debate reinforces the fact that Fukuyama was right: there is no coherent alternative vision for economics and political organisation that threatens capitalistic liberal democracy.
Many vassal states and autocracies have populations that yearn to join the Western world. Millions year round travel hundreds of miles and endure untold indignities to make a new life in Europe or the US. No Western populations yearn to be more like Russia, or more like China, or Syria or Venezuela or Iran.
Immigration flows (real or attempted) are a great proxy for economic and cultural success. The more people banging on the door, the more successful the country - and the more able to pick the brightest and best to keep growing the economy.
And it's also why it is the interests of Western liberal democracies to get their neighbours richer and more democratic: simply, it means that the likelihood their citizens will be climbing on boats and trying to get to your country is reduced.
I disagree. People are attracted by the money in the west but many despise the social policies in the west....from gay marriage and trans rights to extreme feminism....Putin alluded to this in his speech
Can you give us an example of extreme feminism? Is it along the lines of giving the gentle flowers the vote?
well constant banging on about a non existent pay gap is what many would count as extreme feminism...pure divisive rhetoric
Lol. if that is extreme feminism I would hate to think what you think mild is. Would we notice?
so you think there is a pay gap do you...not true young women outearn young men in their 20s...thats extreme feminism twisting and denying reality
Well yes I do, but that wasn't the point. The point is you referring to it as extreme. What the hell would mild feminism be then?
Presumably littering should also be cracked down with the full force of the law being an extreme crime. Hang draw and quartering would be too good for them.
Pillock.
You're right, that would be a bit much.
Public guillotining would be far more appropriate.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
You’ve admitted a slightly higher standard of bot in recent months. What’s happened with this one ? It doesn’t seem to be fully functioning.
Yeah, we are being insulted by such a pisspoor troll.
Russia has obviously run out of the articulate ones, alongside 21st century tanks, missiles, and missile cruisers.
They are down to the barrel bottom.
No, I think it’s the date. Just checked Twitter and Putin’s trolls are out in unusual force tonight. Possibly makes the strategic genius feel slightly better.
Meanwhile, here’s a demonstration in Berlin outside the Russia embassy.
If to mark the anniversary of the SMO Putin can only release the trolls rather than a missile barrage then the end of the war is nigh
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
I do not think anyone is misunderstanding you at all and this forum has plenty of experience in recognising you and your fellow travellers
This debate reinforces the fact that Fukuyama was right: there is no coherent alternative vision for economics and political organisation that threatens capitalistic liberal democracy.
Many vassal states and autocracies have populations that yearn to join the Western world. Millions year round travel hundreds of miles and endure untold indignities to make a new life in Europe or the US. No Western populations yearn to be more like Russia, or more like China, or Syria or Venezuela or Iran.
Immigration flows (real or attempted) are a great proxy for economic and cultural success. The more people banging on the door, the more successful the country - and the more able to pick the brightest and best to keep growing the economy.
And it's also why it is the interests of Western liberal democracies to get their neighbours richer and more democratic: simply, it means that the likelihood their citizens will be climbing on boats and trying to get to your country is reduced.
I disagree. People are attracted by the money in the west but many despise the social policies in the west....from gay marriage and trans rights to extreme feminism....Putin alluded to this in his speech
Can you give us an example of extreme feminism? Is it along the lines of giving the gentle flowers the vote?
well constant banging on about a non existent pay gap is what many would count as extreme feminism...pure divisive rhetoric
Lol. if that is extreme feminism I would hate to think what you think mild is. Would we notice?
so you think there is a pay gap do you...not true young women outearn young men in their 20s...thats extreme feminism twisting and denying reality
Well yes I do, but that wasn't the point. The point is you referring to it as extreme. What the hell would mild feminism be then?
Presumably littering should also be cracked down with the full force of the law being an extreme crime. Hang draw and quartering would be too good for them.
Pillock.
You're right, that would be a bit much.
Public guillotining would be far more appropriate.
How did the SNP end up with just these 3 candidates ?
It really is a poor choice for their membership to chose from and Labour must think Christmas has come early .
The choice being Mr Angry , Miss Bible Basher and Miss Non-entity .
All 3 are Titans compared to the dross in Labour. You have obviously zero knowledge of Scottish politics and the Labour London regional sockpuppet party.
Just catching up on SNP It's a Knockout.
Alex Neil attacking Humza. Mhairi Black attacking Kate. Ash attacking Peter Murrell.
Hmm.
If a test of leadership is securing your own succession then Nicola is not quite measuring up to Eck.
I'm quite at a loss to know who of these three is going to emerge blinking into the sunlight, but their first act will surely be to get someone to remove the knives from their back and wash the blood from the walls.
Good that ASh knows who the villain is, Humza is as forgetful as Imelda, Mhairi Black is a sandwich short of a picnic gravy trainer.
Good evening Malc
What a mess the SNP have got into
You do not need to tell me but I am really interested in which of the three you will vote for, or indeed abstain as I did when the choice was Johnson v Hunt
Hello G , I am not a member , I would not give the Murrells a penny of my cash, so do not have a vote. For certain it would not be Humza who is the Murrells sockpuppet. Of the two women I have never seen Forbes challenge any Sturgeon order an dsh educked teh GRR vote, whereas Regan resigned rather than vot efor GRR so if I had a vote it would be Regan.
Thanks for that Malc and it does seem as if Sturgeon resigning has put the cat amongst the pigeons
I am really glad to see the back of her, will see how all the investigating goes now.
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
What does a geriatric musician know of these things?
Are you forgetting James Whale and... some other elderly dude - has also sort-of-kind-of said the same things? Or maybe that was about vaccines. It all blends into one ChatGPT-esque script after a while.
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
You’ve admitted a slightly higher standard of bot in recent months. What’s happened with this one ? It doesn’t seem to be fully functioning.
Yeah, we are being insulted by such a pisspoor troll.
Russia has obviously run out of the articulate ones, alongside 21st century tanks, missiles, and missile cruisers.
They are down to the barrel bottom.
No, I think it’s the date. Just checked Twitter and Putin’s trolls are out in unusual force tonight. Possibly makes the strategic genius feel slightly better.
Meanwhile, here’s a demonstration in Berlin outside the Russia embassy.
If to mark the anniversary of the SMO Putin can only release the trolls rather than a missile barrage then the end of the war is nigh
There are rumours he is offering a large sum of money for for @Morris_Dancer's trebuchet design so that he can use the non-performing trolls directly as missiles instead.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
I do not think anyone is misunderstanding you at all and this forum has plenty of experience in recognising you and your fellow travellers
what worries me is how people here in the west react when ukraine starts to lose having invested so much emotional energy in their cause
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
What does a geriatric musician know of these things?
Are you forgetting James Whale and... some other elderly dude - has also sort-of-kind-of said the same things? Or maybe that was about vaccines. It all blends into one ChatGPT-esque script after a while.
Not exactly like Roger Waters hasn't always been a sandwich short of a picnic anyway despite his creative genius.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
I do not think anyone is misunderstanding you at all and this forum has plenty of experience in recognising you and your fellow travellers
what worries me is how people here in the west react when ukraine starts to lose having invested so much emotional energy in their cause
It's good to hear you have such a comfortable and ordered life that only one increasingly unlikely thing worries you.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
I do not think anyone is misunderstanding you at all and this forum has plenty of experience in recognising you and your fellow travellers
To be fair, it doesn't require the detective talents of Inspector Morse. It doesn't really require the detective talents of Inspector Clouseau.
For my money, while the overall consensus continues to be for a long-running grind, there are enough straws in the wind to entertain the prospect of a possible “early” (ie 2023) Russian collapse.
I do find the Archbishop of Canterbury’s argument compelling. No-one wins long term by humiliating Russia. Defeat is humiliation enough.
I do favour a return to 1991 borders, but I can see a decent case for the resumption of the Kharkiv Pact allowing for Russian naval in Sebastopol, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and perhaps even some special status for Crimea and the Donbas, along the lines of Northern Ireland for example.
Long-term, our policy should aim to bring Russia into Western economic, political, and defence structures.
a russian collapse cant happen if ukraine is running out of artillery shells though...i think you are indulging in wishful thinking
Why not?
how does Ukraine advance without sufficient artillery
When the Russians have to fall back because they are taking too many casualties and are running out of supplies themselves.
We'll know Russia is in trouble when they have to enlist their troll farmers.....
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
And I am, of course, Dr Who.
You will be amazed to hear that is in fact a pun on my name.
(Not the title of the show, alas. Just my use of it.)
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
For my money, while the overall consensus continues to be for a long-running grind, there are enough straws in the wind to entertain the prospect of a possible “early” (ie 2023) Russian collapse.
I do find the Archbishop of Canterbury’s argument compelling. No-one wins long term by humiliating Russia. Defeat is humiliation enough.
I do favour a return to 1991 borders, but I can see a decent case for the resumption of the Kharkiv Pact allowing for Russian naval in Sebastopol, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and perhaps even some special status for Crimea and the Donbas, along the lines of Northern Ireland for example.
Long-term, our policy should aim to bring Russia into Western economic, political, and defence structures.
a russian collapse cant happen if ukraine is running out of artillery shells though...i think you are indulging in wishful thinking
Why not?
how does Ukraine advance without sufficient artillery
When the Russians have to fall back because they are taking too many casualties and are running out of supplies themselves.
We'll know Russia is in trouble when they have to enlist their troll farmers.....
Who says they don't, for poor performance?
"Listen comrade, you only managed 12 posts on politicalbetting.com before you got banned as a trollski. Off to Bakhmut with you!"
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
lol judging by the quality of discussion on this thread if thats what an eton education does id take slough grammar
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
What next? The hegemony of blue toys for boys and pink for girls? There is no end to the infamy that the US political/industrial complex won't impose on us! When Ukraine is defeated we shall have mid-lilac for boys and possibly a delightful shimmering green for girls. Then, then! Shall the world be free!
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
For my money, while the overall consensus continues to be for a long-running grind, there are enough straws in the wind to entertain the prospect of a possible “early” (ie 2023) Russian collapse.
I do find the Archbishop of Canterbury’s argument compelling. No-one wins long term by humiliating Russia. Defeat is humiliation enough.
I do favour a return to 1991 borders, but I can see a decent case for the resumption of the Kharkiv Pact allowing for Russian naval in Sebastopol, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and perhaps even some special status for Crimea and the Donbas, along the lines of Northern Ireland for example.
Long-term, our policy should aim to bring Russia into Western economic, political, and defence structures.
a russian collapse cant happen if ukraine is running out of artillery shells though...i think you are indulging in wishful thinking
Why not?
how does Ukraine advance without sufficient artillery
When the Russians have to fall back because they are taking too many casualties and are running out of supplies themselves.
We'll know Russia is in trouble when they have to enlist their troll farmers.....
Who says they don't, for poor performance?
"Listen comrade, you only managed 12 posts on politicalbetting.com before you got banned as a trollski. Off to Bakhmut with you!"
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
I do not think anyone is misunderstanding you at all and this forum has plenty of experience in recognising you and your fellow travellers
To be fair, it doesn't require the detective talents of Inspector Morse. It doesn't really require the detective talents of Inspector Clouseau.
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
What does a geriatric musician know of these things?
Are you forgetting James Whale and... some other elderly dude - has also sort-of-kind-of said the same things? Or maybe that was about vaccines. It all blends into one ChatGPT-esque script after a while.
Not exactly like Roger Waters hasn't always been a sandwich short of a picnic anyway despite his creative genius.
The Wifey was supposed to have gone out for dinner with Roger Waters this week. Until she discovered his stance on Ukraine.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
What next? The hegemony of blue toys for boys and pink for girls? There is no end to the infamy that the US political/industrial complex won't impose on us! When Ukraine is defeated we shall have mid-lilac for boys and possibly a delightful shimmering green for girls. Then, then! Shall the world be free!
Mid-lilac would clash horribly with the other accessories, surely? Don’t want a whole generation of boys to be a fashion disaster!
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
That’s me rumbled as a (very deep cover) Russian not then.
For my money, while the overall consensus continues to be for a long-running grind, there are enough straws in the wind to entertain the prospect of a possible “early” (ie 2023) Russian collapse.
I do find the Archbishop of Canterbury’s argument compelling. No-one wins long term by humiliating Russia. Defeat is humiliation enough.
I do favour a return to 1991 borders, but I can see a decent case for the resumption of the Kharkiv Pact allowing for Russian naval in Sebastopol, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and perhaps even some special status for Crimea and the Donbas, along the lines of Northern Ireland for example.
Long-term, our policy should aim to bring Russia into Western economic, political, and defence structures.
a russian collapse cant happen if ukraine is running out of artillery shells though...i think you are indulging in wishful thinking
Why not?
how does Ukraine advance without sufficient artillery
When the Russians have to fall back because they are taking too many casualties and are running out of supplies themselves.
We'll know Russia is in trouble when they have to enlist their troll farmers.....
Who says they don't, for poor performance?
"Listen comrade, you only managed 12 posts on politicalbetting.com before you got banned as a trollski. Off to Bakhmut with you!"
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
What next? The hegemony of blue toys for boys and pink for girls? There is no end to the infamy that the US political/industrial complex won't impose on us! When Ukraine is defeated we shall have mid-lilac for boys and possibly a delightful shimmering green for girls. Then, then! Shall the world be free!
At primary school I got into a fight with someone over whether or not yellow was a girls’ colour. My opponent said it was but I was most insistent it wasn’t. Mrs Kirkbride broke it up and sent us to see the head who not only gave us a right telling off he refused to come down on either side of the argument.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
oh you have the typical condisending attitude of old etonians too....given eton produced both johnson and cameron id say the school is vastly overrated
For my money, while the overall consensus continues to be for a long-running grind, there are enough straws in the wind to entertain the prospect of a possible “early” (ie 2023) Russian collapse.
I do find the Archbishop of Canterbury’s argument compelling. No-one wins long term by humiliating Russia. Defeat is humiliation enough.
I do favour a return to 1991 borders, but I can see a decent case for the resumption of the Kharkiv Pact allowing for Russian naval in Sebastopol, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and perhaps even some special status for Crimea and the Donbas, along the lines of Northern Ireland for example.
Long-term, our policy should aim to bring Russia into Western economic, political, and defence structures.
a russian collapse cant happen if ukraine is running out of artillery shells though...i think you are indulging in wishful thinking
Why not?
how does Ukraine advance without sufficient artillery
When the Russians have to fall back because they are taking too many casualties and are running out of supplies themselves.
We'll know Russia is in trouble when they have to enlist their troll farmers.....
Who says they don't, for poor performance?
"Listen comrade, you only managed 12 posts on politicalbetting.com before you got banned as a trollski. Off to Bakhmut with you!"
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
lol judging by the quality of discussion on this thread if thats what an eton education does id take slough grammar
You'd find it hard because there is no Slough Grammar School, although there are four grammar schools in Slough.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
oh you have the typical condisending attitude of old etonians too....given eton produced both johnson and cameron id say the school is vastly overrated
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
oh you have the typical condisending attitude of old etonians too....given eton produced both johnson and cameron id say the school is vastly overrated
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
I am actually a seal.
As I said, some people use pseudonyms like I do but others are happy to reveal their true identities on porpoise.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
oh you have the typical condisending attitude of old etonians too....given eton produced both johnson and cameron id say the school is vastly overrated
For my money, while the overall consensus continues to be for a long-running grind, there are enough straws in the wind to entertain the prospect of a possible “early” (ie 2023) Russian collapse.
I do find the Archbishop of Canterbury’s argument compelling. No-one wins long term by humiliating Russia. Defeat is humiliation enough.
I do favour a return to 1991 borders, but I can see a decent case for the resumption of the Kharkiv Pact allowing for Russian naval in Sebastopol, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and perhaps even some special status for Crimea and the Donbas, along the lines of Northern Ireland for example.
Long-term, our policy should aim to bring Russia into Western economic, political, and defence structures.
a russian collapse cant happen if ukraine is running out of artillery shells though...i think you are indulging in wishful thinking
Why not?
how does Ukraine advance without sufficient artillery
When the Russians have to fall back because they are taking too many casualties and are running out of supplies themselves.
We'll know Russia is in trouble when they have to enlist their troll farmers.....
Who says they don't, for poor performance?
"Listen comrade, you only managed 12 posts on politicalbetting.com before you got banned as a trollski. Off to Bakhmut with you!"
I’d like it to be true, but I don’t see how Russia loses this “outright”
Putin has successfully made the war existential. Therefore Russian defeat in Ukraine is the conquest of Russia. That cannot happen because Russian is a great power WITH NUKES. Even if Putin is toppled no replacement will be allowed to negotiate “surrender”
This is Korean War 2.0. Quagmire and Armistice beckons, eventually
Pretty much. Apart from anything else, Russia has an almost limitless supply of cannon fodder.
It all ends with partition along a line of control as per Kashmir, with neither side recognising the territory held by the other de jure, but an accommodation being reached de facto. The 80% of Ukraine that remains unoccupied will then be pumped so full of cash and weapons that the cost of trying to resume the war of conquest at some point in the future will be too steep for Putin or his successors to stomach.
This state having been reached, the key challenge will then be to maintain a degree of unity with respect to the ostracism of Russia. Fundamentally, this is a fascist state with a fascist leadership and an overwhelmingly fascist-sympathising population: the existence of a handful of doomed internal dissidents and Pussy Riot does nothing to alter the fact that most Russians back both Putin and his imperial ambitions to the hilt. There will have to be a lot of determined diplomacy to prevent potential backsliders like Italy and Germany from trying to resume antebellum positions on trade and appeasement.
"Russia has an almost limitless supply of cannon fodder."
I'm far from convinced that's the case. Look at the Second World War: Germany had over 700,000 men in the Caucus in January 1943; the Soviets had a million. And that was just one front for both. The Ukraine war might be the largest land war we've seen for some years, but it's tiny compared to past wars.
Russia is, and wants to remain, a modern society. The modern world requires so many more skilled people than war did 80 years ago: there are loads of jobs that simply did not exist, but are critical to society and to war. We can't just send the Bevan Boys in to perform them as it takes years to learn the skills.
Then there are the demographic issues mentioned below.
The same also applies to Ukraine, as it happens.
I think this is spot on.
The pool of "talent" for Russia to draw upon is:
Men, aged 17 to 30, in decent physical shape, who don't have important jobs that are required for the war effort, and who haven't fled the country.
Russia's population pyramid is narrowest in the 20-24 (i.e. the prime fighting age) segment.
And a significant chunk of that group has already been called up, has been killed or injured, has fled, or is otherwise unsuitable for fighting.
The Russians have been enlisting prisoners, people who are HIV+ or have tuberculosis. These are not the actions of a country with unlimited cannon fodder.
And even if they did have another million men (which is half the number of Russian men in their early twenties), if they are unsupported, unsupplied, barely trained, and attacking entrenched defenders with Western weapons, then it's not going to end well for them.
At some point, the flow of shells dries up. At some point, too many artillery pieces have been destroyed by HIMARS or just by the warping of barrels from constant firing. At some point, going to the front is considered such a death sentence, that people would fancy their chances fighting the internal police.
At some point, waging offensive war no longer becomes an option for the Russians. Now, it may be they can then defend their positions in a long war of attrition and frozen fronts. Or it may be that long range artillery makes those dug in positions far from Russia and far from working railheads impossible to supply.
And then the war stops, one way or another.
And at that point Putin (or his even madder successor) drops a test nuke over the Black Sea and says Peace Now
Then what? We would agree to a peace, at that point. Probably something like Korea
For your preferred outcome to play out you must assume that Russian will NEVER use nukes even when faced with humiliating defeat. A very very dangerous assumption
It's not my "preferred outcome", I'm just pointing out the fallacy of the "Russia has unlimited resources to throw into the conflict" brigade, of which you are a member.
Russia does not have unlimited resources.
The fact is we're all guessing, and at times we've all been wrong. If I tally my beliefs vs what actually happened:
- I expected the invasion and wasn't surprised by that - I thought Ukraine would be overrun in days and was surprised by their resilience - When Russia withdrew from Kiev I expected stalemate but actually Russia went on to capture Severodonetsk - I was surprised like most by the rapid Ukrainian advances in the NE but not surprised when Kherson fell - But then unpleasantly surprised at how Russia fought back and started to advance again in the East
Now most people expect stalemate but a few expect a successful Ukrainian offensive in spring. It's really too difficult to tell.
It is very unpredictable. I don't know what will happen and don't know what is for the best (which I define as the course that minimises human suffering).
Curiously, PB.com is full of people who do know what will happen and are very convinced that they are right.
Is it ? Most express the same uncertainty about outcomes as you; they just disagree about actions. Topping appears also to have the habit of lumping together everyone who disagrees with him as a PB armchair general.
On the bright side, it does appear from the piece that superior intelligence information makes the US a great deal better at judging the probabilities of outcomes in Ukraine than the rest of us - including most European leaders.
Topping appears also to have the habit of lumping together everyone who disagrees with him as a PB armchair general.
Fair enough, surely.
I would have said that @TOPPING and @Dura_Ace are the only ones amongst us who have experienced actual fighting.
If you have fought in a war, you do bring rather different insights to the table.
So, I kinda weight their views more than someone who has only seen active service from the Morrisons in Cambourne.
Aw, shucks. Thanks for the vote of confidence.
The problem with that is that *their* experience will also be limited. True, they might have more knowledge than myself, but knowing how to land a plane on an aircraft carrier does not inform you of the way tanks might be used to create a bridgehead; or being a sergeant in a trench does not tell you the nest way to target missile strikes on critical enemy infrastructure. They may know a lot about things like how to fire a gun or how to lead a platoon in an attack, but that's not much help with the bigger-picture stuff that we're mostly interested in.
Take Topping's argument that Russia is not running out of kit (say, artillery and missiles). He may be right and they are not. But if he is right, he has failed to explain why we're seeing fewer missile attacks on Ukraine, why Russia appears to be using much less artillery, and why they seem to be using much older kit.
I've provided a possible explanation - that Russia is holding back the material ready for a big assault - but he even ignores that. (I think there may be valid arguments against that counter-argument, but that's another matter).
I don't know what Topping did in the army, but even if he was an expert on Russian tanks, the situation with Russia's tanks and their storage will have changed and developed in the last couple of decades, assuming he has not recently left the forces. And if he knows a great deal about tanks, he might know very little about missiles, or artillery systems etc.
So whilst I thank him and everyone who has served the country in the military (especially if they have been deployed to warzones), and will defer to their expertise in areas they're expert in, I'd treat 'evidence' they give in areas outside their areas of expertise with less certainty.
Well quite. Does all regular soldiers, however brave and experienced, have stunning insight into matters of international relations and mass warfare tactics for instance? (whether ex or current Generals and diplomats do either, as many will be as clueless as anyone else, is another question).
Armchair X is such an overused criticism anyway. When you get down to it it effectively means no one but anyone with exact knowledge of the precise situation can say anything, since even if you know wars do you know this one? What kind of war, where was it? If you know business 10 years ago is that relevant to now? Maybe, but perhaps not as much as they think. The examples are endless.
Some people are more obviously talking nonsense than others, or need to consider what they are basing their views on a bit more critically, but it doesn't mean they cannot come up with something more spot on than someone who served for X years 20 years ago or something.
The best example I can think to illustrate this is if someone were to take Dura Ace's analysis on say, tank warfare as the one and only gospel truth, when that is a) not necessarily within his personal realm of military experience and b) something he himself has said people should not do (that is, taken anything he says as gospel). Should he be paid more attention to on some issues? Almost certainly. And he'll no doubt mock what his experience tells him is nonsense. But it doesn't mean everyone who is an 'armchair general' will be wrong compared to him.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
I am actually a seal.
As I said, some people use pseudonyms like I do but others are happy to reveal their true identities on porpoise.
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
Forbes would be a negative for Scons as apart from independence and her views on marriage is very much on the same page
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
lol judging by the quality of discussion on this thread if thats what an eton education does id take slough grammar
Stop worrying about grammar and sort your punctuation.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
What next? The hegemony of blue toys for boys and pink for girls? There is no end to the infamy that the US political/industrial complex won't impose on us! When Ukraine is defeated we shall have mid-lilac for boys and possibly a delightful shimmering green for girls. Then, then! Shall the world be free!
Mid-lilac would clash horribly with the other accessories, surely? Don’t want a whole generation of boys to be a fashion disaster!
And thus, you have proved yourself to be a Nazi. Or trans-fascist. Or both. Either way - in the pay of the GWD or BLQ or... B&Q. You Commie.
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
I do not think anyone is misunderstanding you at all and this forum has plenty of experience in recognising you and your fellow travellers
what worries me is how people here in the west react when ukraine starts to lose having invested so much emotional energy in their cause
There's a real gap in my understanding about the Ukraine war.
It seems that its possible that a delegation from India, Sir Lanka, SA, Bangladesh, Pakistan could turn up on my doorstep (or much more likely someone who matters doorstep) and argue a case that isn't so clear as it seems to us.
These nations are about as friendly as it gets - or at least they should be. What do they see that we don't?
this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency...as Russia promotes de dollarisation of the world...thats why the US is uninterested in peace talks
Really?
So Russia invaded Ukraine, killed and raped their citizens, and abducted their children because they don't want the US Dollar to be the reserve currency?
And you're promoting the idea that Putin is the sane one?
Dont forget the democratically elected leader of ukraine was overthrown in 2014 in a us backed coup. No Russias main fear is NATO on their backdoor with nuclear weapons in Ukraine...it is the US who are worried about the US dollar as reserve currency...lose this and the US standard of living collapses...
You said "this war is ultimately about preserving the US dollar as reserve currency".
Are you saying that Ukraine is just the beginning for Russia as it seeks to overthrow the hegemony of the US Dollar?
you are deliberately misunderstanding me....russias concern is Ukraine becoming part of Nato....it is the US worried about losing the dollar as reserve currency
I do not think anyone is misunderstanding you at all and this forum has plenty of experience in recognising you and your fellow travellers
To be fair, it doesn't require the detective talents of Inspector Morse. It doesn't really require the detective talents of Inspector Clouseau.
"Hello, this is Chief Inspector Clouseau. There is a beautiful woman in my bed and a dead man in my bath!"
I’d like it to be true, but I don’t see how Russia loses this “outright”
Putin has successfully made the war existential. Therefore Russian defeat in Ukraine is the conquest of Russia. That cannot happen because Russian is a great power WITH NUKES. Even if Putin is toppled no replacement will be allowed to negotiate “surrender”
This is Korean War 2.0. Quagmire and Armistice beckons, eventually
Pretty much. Apart from anything else, Russia has an almost limitless supply of cannon fodder.
It all ends with partition along a line of control as per Kashmir, with neither side recognising the territory held by the other de jure, but an accommodation being reached de facto. The 80% of Ukraine that remains unoccupied will then be pumped so full of cash and weapons that the cost of trying to resume the war of conquest at some point in the future will be too steep for Putin or his successors to stomach.
This state having been reached, the key challenge will then be to maintain a degree of unity with respect to the ostracism of Russia. Fundamentally, this is a fascist state with a fascist leadership and an overwhelmingly fascist-sympathising population: the existence of a handful of doomed internal dissidents and Pussy Riot does nothing to alter the fact that most Russians back both Putin and his imperial ambitions to the hilt. There will have to be a lot of determined diplomacy to prevent potential backsliders like Italy and Germany from trying to resume antebellum positions on trade and appeasement.
"Russia has an almost limitless supply of cannon fodder."
I'm far from convinced that's the case. Look at the Second World War: Germany had over 700,000 men in the Caucus in January 1943; the Soviets had a million. And that was just one front for both. The Ukraine war might be the largest land war we've seen for some years, but it's tiny compared to past wars.
Russia is, and wants to remain, a modern society. The modern world requires so many more skilled people than war did 80 years ago: there are loads of jobs that simply did not exist, but are critical to society and to war. We can't just send the Bevan Boys in to perform them as it takes years to learn the skills.
Then there are the demographic issues mentioned below.
The same also applies to Ukraine, as it happens.
I think this is spot on.
The pool of "talent" for Russia to draw upon is:
Men, aged 17 to 30, in decent physical shape, who don't have important jobs that are required for the war effort, and who haven't fled the country.
Russia's population pyramid is narrowest in the 20-24 (i.e. the prime fighting age) segment.
And a significant chunk of that group has already been called up, has been killed or injured, has fled, or is otherwise unsuitable for fighting.
The Russians have been enlisting prisoners, people who are HIV+ or have tuberculosis. These are not the actions of a country with unlimited cannon fodder.
And even if they did have another million men (which is half the number of Russian men in their early twenties), if they are unsupported, unsupplied, barely trained, and attacking entrenched defenders with Western weapons, then it's not going to end well for them.
At some point, the flow of shells dries up. At some point, too many artillery pieces have been destroyed by HIMARS or just by the warping of barrels from constant firing. At some point, going to the front is considered such a death sentence, that people would fancy their chances fighting the internal police.
At some point, waging offensive war no longer becomes an option for the Russians. Now, it may be they can then defend their positions in a long war of attrition and frozen fronts. Or it may be that long range artillery makes those dug in positions far from Russia and far from working railheads impossible to supply.
And then the war stops, one way or another.
And at that point Putin (or his even madder successor) drops a test nuke over the Black Sea and says Peace Now
Then what? We would agree to a peace, at that point. Probably something like Korea
For your preferred outcome to play out you must assume that Russian will NEVER use nukes even when faced with humiliating defeat. A very very dangerous assumption
It's not my "preferred outcome", I'm just pointing out the fallacy of the "Russia has unlimited resources to throw into the conflict" brigade, of which you are a member.
Russia does not have unlimited resources.
The fact is we're all guessing, and at times we've all been wrong. If I tally my beliefs vs what actually happened:
- I expected the invasion and wasn't surprised by that - I thought Ukraine would be overrun in days and was surprised by their resilience - When Russia withdrew from Kiev I expected stalemate but actually Russia went on to capture Severodonetsk - I was surprised like most by the rapid Ukrainian advances in the NE but not surprised when Kherson fell - But then unpleasantly surprised at how Russia fought back and started to advance again in the East
Now most people expect stalemate but a few expect a successful Ukrainian offensive in spring. It's really too difficult to tell.
It is very unpredictable. I don't know what will happen and don't know what is for the best (which I define as the course that minimises human suffering).
Curiously, PB.com is full of people who do know what will happen and are very convinced that they are right.
Is it ? Most express the same uncertainty about outcomes as you; they just disagree about actions. Topping appears also to have the habit of lumping together everyone who disagrees with him as a PB armchair general.
On the bright side, it does appear from the piece that superior intelligence information makes the US a great deal better at judging the probabilities of outcomes in Ukraine than the rest of us - including most European leaders.
Topping appears also to have the habit of lumping together everyone who disagrees with him as a PB armchair general.
Fair enough, surely.
I would have said that @TOPPING and @Dura_Ace are the only ones amongst us who have experienced actual fighting.
If you have fought in a war, you do bring rather different insights to the table.
So, I kinda weight their views more than someone who has only seen active service from the Morrisons in Cambourne.
Aw, shucks. Thanks for the vote of confidence.
The problem with that is that *their* experience will also be limited. True, they might have more knowledge than myself, but knowing how to land a plane on an aircraft carrier does not inform you of the way tanks might be used to create a bridgehead; or being a sergeant in a trench does not tell you the nest way to target missile strikes on critical enemy infrastructure. They may know a lot about things like how to fire a gun or how to lead a platoon in an attack, but that's not much help with the bigger-picture stuff that we're mostly interested in.
Take Topping's argument that Russia is not running out of kit (say, artillery and missiles). He may be right and they are not. But if he is right, he has failed to explain why we're seeing fewer missile attacks on Ukraine, why Russia appears to be using much less artillery, and why they seem to be using much older kit.
I've provided a possible explanation - that Russia is holding back the material ready for a big assault - but he even ignores that. (I think there may be valid arguments against that counter-argument, but that's another matter).
I don't know what Topping did in the army, but even if he was an expert on Russian tanks, the situation with Russia's tanks and their storage will have changed and developed in the last couple of decades, assuming he has not recently left the forces. And if he knows a great deal about tanks, he might know very little about missiles, or artillery systems etc.
So whilst I thank him and everyone who has served the country in the military (especially if they have been deployed to warzones), and will defer to their expertise in areas they're expert in, I'd treat 'evidence' they give in areas outside their areas of expertise with less certainty.
Well quite. Does all regular soldiers, however brave and experienced, have stunning insight into matters of international relations and mass warfare tactics for instance? (whether ex or current Generals and diplomats do either, as many will be as clueless as anyone else, is another question).
Armchair X is such an overused criticism anyway. When you get down to it it effectively means no one but anyone with exact knowledge of the precise situation can say anything, since even if you know wars do you know this one? What kind of war, where was it? If you know business 10 years ago is that relevant to now? Maybe, but perhaps not as much as they think. The examples are endless.
Some people are more obviously talking nonsense than others, or need to consider what they are basing their views on a bit more critically, but it doesn't mean they cannot come up with something more spot on than someone who served for X years 20 years ago or something.
The best example I can think to illustrate this is if someone were to take Dura Ace's analysis on say, tank warfare as the one and only gospel truth, when that is a) not necessarily within his personal realm of military experience and b) something he himself has said people should not do (that is, taken anything he says as gospel). Should he be paid more attention to on some issues? Almost certainly. And he'll no doubt mock what his experience tells him is nonsense. But it doesn't mean everyone who is an 'armchair general' will be wrong compared to him.
Although problems begin when such persons who really don't know what they're doing mess things up through ignorance.
Exhibit A - the DfE.
But that's been true of quite a lot of generals throughout history as well.
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
I'm hoping Forbes wins from the Labour viewpoint - splits and arguments from day 1. But I agree the ganging up has been unseemly, and I wonder if it would have happened to the same extent if she was male.
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
I think we all know that Leon is named after the chap who had an unfortunate accident with an ice-pick.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
Every time I go into a casino I order a private table, and then I own it.
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
Forbes would be a negative for Scons as apart from independence and her views on marriage is very much on the same page
If Mr Ross were smart, and Forbes is the members' pick, he could really mess with their heads by ordering the Tories to back her as FM on the grounds he agreed with many of her policies apart from independence which is an irrelevance right now.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
oh you have the typical condisending attitude of old etonians too....given eton produced both johnson and cameron id say the school is vastly overrated
Use FUCKING CAPITALS, you Putinist twat.
He can’t
The NATO Sodomites stole the Caps keys from all the keyboards in the troll farm.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
i suspect your right with regard to the wider public so far as Forbes is concerned. Her problem is party management and running the actual Scottish Govt, given the comments of the likes of Swinney and the likely reaction of the Greens. And she is wormwood to the younger activists who make all the noise on social media. So not optimal. She may help Angus Brendan hold the Western Isles though.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
For my money, while the overall consensus continues to be for a long-running grind, there are enough straws in the wind to entertain the prospect of a possible “early” (ie 2023) Russian collapse.
I do find the Archbishop of Canterbury’s argument compelling. No-one wins long term by humiliating Russia. Defeat is humiliation enough.
I do favour a return to 1991 borders, but I can see a decent case for the resumption of the Kharkiv Pact allowing for Russian naval in Sebastopol, a commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO, and perhaps even some special status for Crimea and the Donbas, along the lines of Northern Ireland for example.
Long-term, our policy should aim to bring Russia into Western economic, political, and defence structures.
a russian collapse cant happen if ukraine is running out of artillery shells though...i think you are indulging in wishful thinking
Why not?
how does Ukraine advance without sufficient artillery
When the Russians have to fall back because they are taking too many casualties and are running out of supplies themselves.
We'll know Russia is in trouble when they have to enlist their troll farmers.....
Who says they don't, for poor performance?
"Listen comrade, you only managed 12 posts on politicalbetting.com before you got banned as a trollski. Off to Bakhmut with you!"
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
What does a geriatric musician know of these things?
Are you forgetting James Whale and... some other elderly dude - has also sort-of-kind-of said the same things? Or maybe that was about vaccines. It all blends into one ChatGPT-esque script after a while.
Not exactly like Roger Waters hasn't always been a sandwich short of a picnic anyway despite his creative genius.
True story: I've stayed at his house in Hampshire.
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
What does a geriatric musician know of these things?
I do wonder what goes through the head of celebrity figures sometimes. Obviously a lot of them are very confident and assured, as rich and (sometimes) talented people may well be, used to people listening to them even if they are idiots, but a few go fully off the deep end and start to think of themselves as being important, deep thinkers speaking truth to power, and next think you know they pander more and more to extremist weirdoes, even if they already had power, money and fame to begin with.
Keep it to a message board guys, certain thriller writers could tell you that.
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
I'm hoping Forbes wins from the Labour viewpoint - splits and arguments from day 1. But I agree the ganging up has been unseemly, and I wonder if it would have happened to the same extent if she was male.
Forbes would be divisive, but more competent than the alternatives. I think that probably better for the SNP, worse for the other parties.
Smart stuff from Putin to keep sicking his crack trolls onto PB, just think how well things would be going if the master strategists weren’t being distracted.
I’d like it to be true, but I don’t see how Russia loses this “outright”
Putin has successfully made the war existential. Therefore Russian defeat in Ukraine is the conquest of Russia. That cannot happen because Russian is a great power WITH NUKES. Even if Putin is toppled no replacement will be allowed to negotiate “surrender”
This is Korean War 2.0. Quagmire and Armistice beckons, eventually
Pretty much. Apart from anything else, Russia has an almost limitless supply of cannon fodder.
It all ends with partition along a line of control as per Kashmir, with neither side recognising the territory held by the other de jure, but an accommodation being reached de facto. The 80% of Ukraine that remains unoccupied will then be pumped so full of cash and weapons that the cost of trying to resume the war of conquest at some point in the future will be too steep for Putin or his successors to stomach.
This state having been reached, the key challenge will then be to maintain a degree of unity with respect to the ostracism of Russia. Fundamentally, this is a fascist state with a fascist leadership and an overwhelmingly fascist-sympathising population: the existence of a handful of doomed internal dissidents and Pussy Riot does nothing to alter the fact that most Russians back both Putin and his imperial ambitions to the hilt. There will have to be a lot of determined diplomacy to prevent potential backsliders like Italy and Germany from trying to resume antebellum positions on trade and appeasement.
"Russia has an almost limitless supply of cannon fodder."
I'm far from convinced that's the case. Look at the Second World War: Germany had over 700,000 men in the Caucus in January 1943; the Soviets had a million. And that was just one front for both. The Ukraine war might be the largest land war we've seen for some years, but it's tiny compared to past wars.
Russia is, and wants to remain, a modern society. The modern world requires so many more skilled people than war did 80 years ago: there are loads of jobs that simply did not exist, but are critical to society and to war. We can't just send the Bevan Boys in to perform them as it takes years to learn the skills.
Then there are the demographic issues mentioned below.
The same also applies to Ukraine, as it happens.
I think this is spot on.
The pool of "talent" for Russia to draw upon is:
Men, aged 17 to 30, in decent physical shape, who don't have important jobs that are required for the war effort, and who haven't fled the country.
Russia's population pyramid is narrowest in the 20-24 (i.e. the prime fighting age) segment.
And a significant chunk of that group has already been called up, has been killed or injured, has fled, or is otherwise unsuitable for fighting.
The Russians have been enlisting prisoners, people who are HIV+ or have tuberculosis. These are not the actions of a country with unlimited cannon fodder.
And even if they did have another million men (which is half the number of Russian men in their early twenties), if they are unsupported, unsupplied, barely trained, and attacking entrenched defenders with Western weapons, then it's not going to end well for them.
At some point, the flow of shells dries up. At some point, too many artillery pieces have been destroyed by HIMARS or just by the warping of barrels from constant firing. At some point, going to the front is considered such a death sentence, that people would fancy their chances fighting the internal police.
At some point, waging offensive war no longer becomes an option for the Russians. Now, it may be they can then defend their positions in a long war of attrition and frozen fronts. Or it may be that long range artillery makes those dug in positions far from Russia and far from working railheads impossible to supply.
And then the war stops, one way or another.
And at that point Putin (or his even madder successor) drops a test nuke over the Black Sea and says Peace Now
Then what? We would agree to a peace, at that point. Probably something like Korea
For your preferred outcome to play out you must assume that Russian will NEVER use nukes even when faced with humiliating defeat. A very very dangerous assumption
It's not my "preferred outcome", I'm just pointing out the fallacy of the "Russia has unlimited resources to throw into the conflict" brigade, of which you are a member.
Russia does not have unlimited resources.
The fact is we're all guessing, and at times we've all been wrong. If I tally my beliefs vs what actually happened:
- I expected the invasion and wasn't surprised by that - I thought Ukraine would be overrun in days and was surprised by their resilience - When Russia withdrew from Kiev I expected stalemate but actually Russia went on to capture Severodonetsk - I was surprised like most by the rapid Ukrainian advances in the NE but not surprised when Kherson fell - But then unpleasantly surprised at how Russia fought back and started to advance again in the East
Now most people expect stalemate but a few expect a successful Ukrainian offensive in spring. It's really too difficult to tell.
It is very unpredictable. I don't know what will happen and don't know what is for the best (which I define as the course that minimises human suffering).
Curiously, PB.com is full of people who do know what will happen and are very convinced that they are right.
Is it ? Most express the same uncertainty about outcomes as you; they just disagree about actions. Topping appears also to have the habit of lumping together everyone who disagrees with him as a PB armchair general.
On the bright side, it does appear from the piece that superior intelligence information makes the US a great deal better at judging the probabilities of outcomes in Ukraine than the rest of us - including most European leaders.
Topping appears also to have the habit of lumping together everyone who disagrees with him as a PB armchair general.
Fair enough, surely.
I would have said that @TOPPING and @Dura_Ace are the only ones amongst us who have experienced actual fighting.
If you have fought in a war, you do bring rather different insights to the table.
So, I kinda weight their views more than someone who has only seen active service from the Morrisons in Cambourne.
Aw, shucks. Thanks for the vote of confidence.
The problem with that is that *their* experience will also be limited. True, they might have more knowledge than myself, but knowing how to land a plane on an aircraft carrier does not inform you of the way tanks might be used to create a bridgehead; or being a sergeant in a trench does not tell you the nest way to target missile strikes on critical enemy infrastructure. They may know a lot about things like how to fire a gun or how to lead a platoon in an attack, but that's not much help with the bigger-picture stuff that we're mostly interested in.
Take Topping's argument that Russia is not running out of kit (say, artillery and missiles). He may be right and they are not. But if he is right, he has failed to explain why we're seeing fewer missile attacks on Ukraine, why Russia appears to be using much less artillery, and why they seem to be using much older kit.
I've provided a possible explanation - that Russia is holding back the material ready for a big assault - but he even ignores that. (I think there may be valid arguments against that counter-argument, but that's another matter).
I don't know what Topping did in the army, but even if he was an expert on Russian tanks, the situation with Russia's tanks and their storage will have changed and developed in the last couple of decades, assuming he has not recently left the forces. And if he knows a great deal about tanks, he might know very little about missiles, or artillery systems etc.
So whilst I thank him and everyone who has served the country in the military (especially if they have been deployed to warzones), and will defer to their expertise in areas they're expert in, I'd treat 'evidence' they give in areas outside their areas of expertise with less certainty.
Well quite. Does all regular soldiers, however brave and experienced, have stunning insight into matters of international relations and mass warfare tactics for instance? (whether ex or current Generals and diplomats do either, as many will be as clueless as anyone else, is another question).
Armchair X is such an overused criticism anyway. When you get down to it it effectively means no one but anyone with exact knowledge of the precise situation can say anything, since even if you know wars do you know this one? What kind of war, where was it? If you know business 10 years ago is that relevant to now? Maybe, but perhaps not as much as they think. The examples are endless.
Some people are more obviously talking nonsense than others, or need to consider what they are basing their views on a bit more critically, but it doesn't mean they cannot come up with something more spot on than someone who served for X years 20 years ago or something.
The best example I can think to illustrate this is if someone were to take Dura Ace's analysis on say, tank warfare as the one and only gospel truth, when that is a) not necessarily within his personal realm of military experience and b) something he himself has said people should not do (that is, taken anything he says as gospel). Should he be paid more attention to on some issues? Almost certainly. And he'll no doubt mock what his experience tells him is nonsense. But it doesn't mean everyone who is an 'armchair general' will be wrong compared to him.
Although problems begin when such persons who really don't know what they're doing mess things up through ignorance.
Exhibit A - the DfE.
But that's been true of quite a lot of generals throughout history as well.
Strange story but true - first gulf war, Powell and the other generals wanted to attack Head on into the Iraqi defences. Cheney was the one who asked why they couldn’t drive round them to the left and encircle them…
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
I'm hoping Forbes wins from the Labour viewpoint - splits and arguments from day 1. But I agree the ganging up has been unseemly, and I wonder if it would have happened to the same extent if she was male.
Forbes would be divisive, but more competent than the alternatives. I think that probably better for the SNP, worse for the other parties.
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
Forbes is in theory the most dangerous opponent for Unionists, but a very large number of peers don’t want her, and that in itself so destabilising that I struggle to see her being successful even if she wins.
Neither Humza nor Regan look very impressive from afar.
I theorise that the electorate at large would probably prefer Forbes, SNP voters themselves are probably decently split between each of the three candidates, and SNP MSPs would prefer Humza.
At a risk of being a Scotspert, no outcome here looks good. A Sturgeon post 24 is surely possible.
Didn’t Ash LOOK the part today! Her top was fantastic.
The problems begin when she tries to answer questions. When it reaches point she is stuck for answer she goes “Look-“ and everything stops. That’s normally about 14 seconds into the interview.
Sad really 🥺
I may have got the wrong end of the stick (because I had the TV on as background noise and wasn't paying much attention,) BUT... wasn't she doing an interview with the BBC in which she revealed her grand plan for independence to be winning the majority of Scottish seats at the next general election, demanding immediate talks on secession from Westminster on that basis, and sending out emissaries to foreign Governments asking for recognition of a Scottish state? This approach can hardly be faulted for its zeal - it edges pretty close to UDI - but it also ends with Keir Starmer telling her to talk to the hand, and the First Minister of Scotland proudly announcing to a grateful people that she has secured the backing of North Korea and Eritrea for the bold leap forward into the sunlit uplands of sovereignty. Whilst a handful of the loopier kinds of nationalists will be thrilled by such decisiveness, I nonetheless doubt that this is a genius stratagem likely to secure broad-based public consent.
If this is the best she's got then the choice returns to Kate Forbes, whose statements about her religious beliefs have already alienated a large chunk of her parliamentary caucus, and Humza Yousaf, who is the continuity Sturgeon candidate only without the charisma or the broadly positive approval ratings. One cannot see how this ends positively for the SNP, regardless of which candidate eventually prevails.
Ash easily has the best hair cut and all round style.
Is there not an argument the devolved Scottish government is very similar to Collins government in Dublin?
It’s not independence is it, But how much power does it have - to what extent is it reliant on funding from London - to what extent is it in office not entirely in power.
To what extent has being the Scottish Government so long hurt the SNP pursuit of independence? To what extent should anyone who believes in Scottish independence have nothing to do with the devolved assembly?
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
A fair point: they're all deficient but a fourth candidate is not going to magically materialise out of thin air. One of them has to win.
I'll freely admit I have little if any idea of what the mass membership of the SNP will tolerate in a leader, which makes this very hard for me to predict. Are they completely monomaniacal about independence or are there any other principles at stake that might mean that Regan's opposition to the GRR Bill, or Forbes's statements on her religious objections to several liberal social measures, become disqualifying? I did suggest earlier in the day that Yousaf could end up winning by default as the least controversial of the three candidates, but now... well, basically I don't know.
I am in the extraordinary position of letting @Leon speak sense about Russia/Ukraine; an unexpected source of antidote to those "Russia is going to run out of bombs/guns/men/tanks/jets/nuclear bombs/desire to abandon their perceived Mother Russia any minute now" posters.
If you think that Leon is the voice of sanity on a subject then maybe you should begin to worry about your sense of judgement.
I find it deeply surreal but he is right.
You know, because we discussed it at length this morning, and I have had the same discussions for a year now, that I am extremely wary of people calling the imminent demise of Russia and its fighting capabilities.
Since February 25th PB posters have declaimed how Russia is on the verge of defeat.
If Leon now has seen the light (he gets there eventually) then I am happy for him to take up the Sword of the Bleedin' Obvious and point out to anyone (to @rcs1000 of all people, truly we are in a mad world) that Russia has in the past committed great resources to fight wars and seems to be doing the same thing here.
(a) It's a hell of a lot easier to fight a defensive war than an offensive one (b) Russia's population pyramid looked rather different in 1939 than it does in 2023 (c) Russia was only able to fight then because it was supplied by the West
I expected Russia to win the war. Or at least, I expected them to occupy the country East of the Dnieper. And that, I thought, would be the easy bit. Because the initial invasion is usually the easy bit, and it is the occupation - and the slow attrition that comes with it - that kills you.
The nation, both Putin and the population, doesn't seem to be in the mood to call it a day, indeed they believe that the war is an existential fight for their country. That puts the boot on the other foot in your defensive/offensive dynamic because to Russians, they are fighting for their existence.
And I am not sure of the precedent of any country running out of soldiers in war although perhaps Germany in 1945 was an example of this. But Russia is enormous, both its economy and its population and population pyramids aside I can't see them running out of troops in this instance.
My point is there have been umpteen posts forecasting the defeat of Russia (even if anyone knew what they meant by that) for one reason or another and I am wary of such forecasts.
Hitherto, people who are pessimistic about Russia's chances have been proved a good deal more right than those who are optimistic.
I'm not sure what being optimistic about Russia's chances means nor anyone on here who has been.
Realistic is the word I think we should all be looking for and plenty on here, and for entirely understandable reasons, have indulged in wishful thinking more than cold, hard analysis, such as anyone on here is really able to undertake.
How's that "to the hilt" definition looking, btw.
The realists are those who recognised that Russia is a failed state, with no military industrial complex ready to back up its Potemkin army, no supply chain, no logistics and ultimately no chance of winning this war.
The "realists" who think Russia will win the war "because nukes" are anything but realistic.
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
I'm hoping Forbes wins from the Labour viewpoint - splits and arguments from day 1. But I agree the ganging up has been unseemly, and I wonder if it would have happened to the same extent if she was male.
Forbes would be divisive, but more competent than the alternatives. I think that probably better for the SNP, worse for the other parties.
As a Unionist, I'm hoping they pick Yousaf.
I gather it is said he has done a bad job in various roles to date, but on the basis that the leadership role is about presentation more than anything else, what is he like simply as a speaker on TV, in Parliament etc? Is it felt he performs well, middling, poorly?
Because I’m feeling nice this evening, having popped in for a look at what’s going on, may I suggest that you chaps get a bit more creative with the names you use?
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
lol judging by the quality of discussion on this thread if thats what an eton education does id take slough grammar
You'd find it hard because there is no Slough Grammar School, although there are four grammar schools in Slough.
I think it must have been the friendly bombs that threw him off.
Pink Floyd Roger Waters says that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and the rest of the Warmongering Neocons in Washington along with the vassal states in NATO are the principal provocateurs of the Ukraine/Russia War.
What does a geriatric musician know of these things?
I do wonder what goes through the head of celebrity figures sometimes. Obviously a lot of them are very confident and assured, as rich and (sometimes) talented people may well be, used to people listening to them even if they are idiots, but a few go fully off the deep end and start to think of themselves as being important, deep thinkers speaking truth to power, and next think you know they pander more and more to extremist weirdoes, even if they already had power, money and fame to begin with.
Keep it to a message board guys, certain thriller writers could tell you that.
4 hours, 39 posts, 1 like and no mention of vaccines.
Plucky effort, I give them 2/10 for trying, Larry.
It must be like being a Tory MP when No. 10 tells you that you are going on the Today programme the next morning.
“Nikita, baby, it’s your time to take one for the team and you have to troll PB. Just say lots of stupid banal crap people know isn’t true and see how long you can get away with talking shit.”
Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
I am amazed he is not 1000-1, something far wrong.
It is a field of three, and look at his rivals.
They would have to be wally dugs for him to be a favourite
It's a fascinating election not only politically but betting wise. There are overwhelming reasons (some bad some good but that's politics) why each of them can't win.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
A fair point: they're all deficient but a fourth candidate is not going to magically materialise out of thin air. One of them has to win.
I'll freely admit I have little if any idea of what the mass membership of the SNP will tolerate in a leader, which makes this very hard for me to predict. Are they completely monomaniacal about independence or are there any other principles at stake that might mean that Regan's opposition to the GRR Bill, or Forbes's statements on her religious objections to several liberal social measures, become disqualifying? I did suggest earlier in the day that Yousaf could end up winning by default as the least controversial of the three candidates, but now... well, basically I don't know.
Isn't the deadline today? So no further candidates?
Comments
Just checked Twitter and Putin’s trolls are out in unusual force tonight.
Possibly makes the strategic genius feel slightly better.
Meanwhile, here’s a demonstration in Berlin outside the Russia embassy.
Presumably littering should also be cracked down with the full force of the law being an extreme crime. Hang draw and quartering would be too good for them.
Pillock.
The Rees-Mogg brigade are a bunch of paper tigers whose power derives entirely from the timidity of the party leader in failing to face them down. The nanosecond that happens, they have no recourse left except to pull down the entire temple around them and be eradicated by Labour in the ensuing General Election.
Public guillotining would be far more appropriate.
It's easy for us in Europe to forget that Russia and the United States are in fact only fifty miles away from each other.
I am wondering if the best test is to ask: Who does Labour and Tory parties want to not win. Who do they actually fear.
As I seem to be in a tiny minority who think that Forbes is outstanding, electable, and the one for the other parties to fear I wonder whether to put a toe in the water.
At the same time she is shortening fairly quicky. Smarkets have Humza at 50%, Forbes at 33%.
I wonder if people are finding that on reflection some very unpleasant and illiberal people have been bullying her and the ordinary Scottish public/membership may feel differently.
There are a few PB denizens who use real human names but very few, generally for good reasons. I get it’s probably easier to choose a name from an old phone book thinking that it sounds like a British name of an ordinary non-Russian, but we don’t work like that, we choose names that reflect something about us - Leon for example is named after the band “kings of Leon” in honour of their song “your sex is on fire” which reminds him of a nasty dose of clap he caught at a PB meet. HYUFD is named after his favourite welsh goat, Casino Royale actually is James Bond.
It would be much more interesting if you spent maybe five minutes coming up with a better name that would throw people off the scent. I, for example, am an old Etonian but I cunningly disguise that by pretending to have a Wykehamist related name and slagging off my old fag JRM. It’s basic level spy craft. Up your game.
You will be amazed to hear that is in fact a pun on my name.
(Not the title of the show, alas. Just my use of it.)
"Listen comrade, you only managed 12 posts on politicalbetting.com before you got banned as a trollski. Off to Bakhmut with you!"
We don't need no thought control
No SMO ops in the donbass
Pute, leave them Ukes alone
I take back my remarks about Burgon. This one's funnier.
"Mr Waters, party of one...."
Mate.
Armchair X is such an overused criticism anyway. When you get down to it it effectively means no one but anyone with exact knowledge of the precise situation can say anything, since even if you know wars do you know this one? What kind of war, where was it? If you know business 10 years ago is that relevant to now? Maybe, but perhaps not as much as they think. The examples are endless.
Some people are more obviously talking nonsense than others, or need to consider what they are basing their views on a bit more critically, but it doesn't mean they cannot come up with something more spot on than someone who served for X years 20 years ago or something.
The best example I can think to illustrate this is if someone were to take Dura Ace's analysis on say, tank warfare as the one and only gospel truth, when that is a) not necessarily within his personal realm of military experience and b) something he himself has said people should not do (that is, taken anything he says as gospel). Should he be paid more attention to on some issues? Almost certainly. And he'll no doubt mock what his experience tells him is nonsense. But it doesn't mean everyone who is an 'armchair general' will be wrong compared to him.
Sorry.
Exhibit A - the DfE.
But that's been true of quite a lot of generals throughout history as well.
When it is, in fact, Greenland all the time. Because it runs through the middle of Hans Island.
Appropriate.
Fortunately for the SNP, he isn't.
Edit - have you blocked @ChristalBr as well?
The NATO Sodomites stole the Caps keys from all the keyboards in the troll farm.
edit. I see he’s picked himself back up and pulled the trigger.
Keep it to a message board guys, certain thriller writers could tell you that.
Plucky effort, I give them 2/10 for trying, Larry.
Is there not an argument the devolved Scottish government is very similar to Collins government in Dublin?
It’s not independence is it, But how much power does it have - to what extent is it reliant on funding from London - to what extent is it in office not entirely in power.
To what extent has being the Scottish Government so long hurt the SNP pursuit of independence? To what extent should anyone who believes in Scottish independence have nothing to do with the devolved assembly?
I'll freely admit I have little if any idea of what the mass membership of the SNP will tolerate in a leader, which makes this very hard for me to predict. Are they completely monomaniacal about independence or are there any other principles at stake that might mean that Regan's opposition to the GRR Bill, or Forbes's statements on her religious objections to several liberal social measures, become disqualifying? I did suggest earlier in the day that Yousaf could end up winning by default as the least controversial of the three candidates, but now... well, basically I don't know.
The "realists" who think Russia will win the war "because nukes" are anything but realistic.
“Nikita, baby, it’s your time to take one for the team and you have to troll PB. Just say lots of stupid banal crap people know isn’t true and see how long you can get away with talking shit.”
Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone (Aberdeen) by-election, first prefs:
SNP: 1455 (30.8%, -10.5)
Lab: 1227 (26%, +8.2)
Con: 1190 (25.2%, -1.0)
Lib Dem: 452 (9.6%, +0.8)
Alba: 178 (3.8%, new)
Green: 111 (2.3%, -2.1)
Family: 60 (1.3%, -0.2)
Ind: 52 (1.1%, new)
Lab win on round 8 after transfers.
Noteable decline in SNP share. Tories surprisingly stable. Great result for Labour.