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It’s odds-on that Johnson won’t be an MP after the general election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,006
edited February 2023 in General
imageIt’s odds-on that Johnson won’t be an MP after the general election – politicalbetting.com

One of the problems that the former prime minister, Boris Johnson, has got it is that on current polling he could struggle to remain an MP after the next election. His Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency is being changed as a result of the new boundaries and looking at the numbers it is hard to see how he could have confidence about holding it.

Read the full story here

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    First! Unlike BJ if he stands in Uxbridge.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited February 2023
    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards
  • Options

    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards

    Mid Beds has a vacancy.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    Eng W-v-SA W in 10 minutes. I would fancy their chances after that performance against Pakistan but who knows what a home crowd can inspire?

    The standard of women's cricket has improved out of all recognition in only a few years. It's now really good to watch (despite some shocking fielding by India yesterday).
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited February 2023
    He's generally believed round here to be going back to Henley. John Howell is being very cagey about whether he's standing again.

    The new Bicester & Woodstock seat is an outside possibility but that's likely to be a Con/LD marginal.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    From previous thread. Just after noon when nominations closed I backed Ash Regan to be next SNP leader. £100 at 5.17. With the obvious flaws in her two opponent candidates already laid out on these pages, she could be the Goldilocks candidate. Money for her now. Last price matched 3.25.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    On topic can anyone see Boris wanting to put in the hard yards of LOTO for 4-5 years, even to get another crack at Downing Street? I think he would be quite good at it, he has a quick wit and taking the piss out of SKS really won't be hard but its still a lot of work and foregone income. I think he will have had enough.
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    TimS said:

    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards

    Johnson's farm. New Amazon Prime series.
    Many troughs being replenished, much slurry spreading.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,964
    Plenty of time for Johnson to see how the land lies before deciding.
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    algarkirk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Having seemingly tripped up both Sturgeon and Forbes for being too extreme one way or the other where's Regan on the "traditional values" / "woke" axis ?

    Forbes lite
    Bollocks. She strikes me as very moderate. A centre-left feminist and irreligious (as far as I can see). Supports gay marriage and isn't a homophobe who blames her bigotry on her superstitions.
    What would be non moderate is to describe people who think differently from you about a difficult and contentious set of moral issues with words like "homophobe", "bigot" and "superstitious".

    Gay marriage.

    Sex before marriage.

    Contentious and difficult?

    If you say so, squire.
    If you belong to a religion that says you can’t endorse those in public, perhaps?
    That would be superstitious then.

    If you want to put your superstitions before others liberties, then others are free to call you out for that.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,285
    edited February 2023

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Tell how I can watch Song of the South on Disney+?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,889

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    It's the same with the old Tom and Jerry DVDs we have: there's a warning at the beginning. Makes sense to me.
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,440
    edited February 2023
    DavidL said:

    On topic can anyone see Boris wanting to put in the hard yards of LOTO for 4-5 years, even to get another crack at Downing Street? I think he would be quite good at it, he has a quick wit and taking the piss out of SKS really won't be hard but its still a lot of work and foregone income. I think he will have had enough.

    He does seem to enjoy the cachet of an MP. And I'd imagine he'll do almost anything to hang on to the media influence of an 'active' politician. Good for the speaking circuit too, ear to the ground etc etc.

    Johnson's problem may be the standards committee and the taint for an unfavourable ruling., Not a a market for me as I've no understanding of the process and potential influences.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Puffin's solution is slightly different, they're releasing a set of "younger readers" rewritten books and also a "classic" set (Dahl)
    The Aristocats isn't available on a Disney+ Child's profile but you can watch it on the adult profile with a disclaimer in front as I did last night.
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    TresTres Posts: 2,208
    edited February 2023

    DavidL said:

    On topic can anyone see Boris wanting to put in the hard yards of LOTO for 4-5 years, even to get another crack at Downing Street? I think he would be quite good at it, he has a quick wit and taking the piss out of SKS really won't be hard but its still a lot of work and foregone income. I think he will have had enough.

    He does seem to enjoy the cachet of an MP. And I'd imagine he'll do almost anything to hang on to the media influence of an 'active' politician. Good for the speaking circuit too, ear to the ground etc etc.

    Johnson's problem may be the standards committee and the taint for an unfavourable ruling., Not a a market for me as I've no understanding of the process and potential influences.
    I don't see how that matters. As far as I can tell any Conservative association would adopt him as a candidate in a heartbeat, regardless of what that committee says.
  • Options

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Tell how I can watch Song of the South on Disney+?
    Yeah I doubt that one will be going onto the platform any time soon, that's permanently retired to their vault. I still find it bemusing that we watched that at my Primary School in the 80s.

    For their other things like Dumbo, Aladdin etc were people have been offended though, the disclaimer is their general and sensible compromise solution. If there's a disclaimer and you watch it anyway and are offended you only have yourself to blame, and if you watch something and are offended by a disclaimer then you're even more sensitive.
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    Yousaf has drifted significantly since last night - from around 1.7 to now 1.93.

    Forbes and Regan are close for second.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,641
    edited February 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Puffin's solution is slightly different, they're releasing a set of "younger readers" rewritten books and also a "classic" set (Dahl)
    The Aristocats isn't available on a Disney+ Child's profile but you can watch it on the adult profile with a disclaimer in front as I did last night.
    Yeah everything with the disclaimer is locked out of Children's profiles, so Aladdin etc too, but adults can play it as you say or give their children adult's profiles if they want to do that.

    Letting parents take responsibility to decide, rather than Disney deciding for one or the other side of the "woke" debate seems perfectly reasonable.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125
    MikeL said:

    Yousaf has drifted significantly since last night - from around 1.7 to now 1.93.

    Forbes and Regan are close for second.

    Disappointed that there were no late entrants.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,777
    Yousaf 1.93-1.96
    Regan 4.0-5.1
    Forbes 3.5-3.8

    Looks like it could be an exciting contest.
  • Options

    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards

    But where exactly does he run to?

    Electoral Calculus is suggesting 83 conservative seats after the next GE, many of them in places which would be unacceptable to Mr & Mrs Johnson. And you think the likes of David Duguid are going to step politely aside for him?
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,708
    stjohn said:

    Yousaf 1.93-1.96
    Regan 4.0-5.1
    Forbes 3.5-3.8

    Looks like it could be an exciting contest.

    Yousaf has come out in the betting from 1.6 this morning. Forbes has come in significantly.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    edited February 2023

    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards

    A manor house in Brightwell-cum-Sotwell

    https://www.thesteepletimes.com/opulence-splendour/brightwell-manor-boris/

    Theoretically that seat could be won by the Libs, assuming mass tactical voting:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wantage_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
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    DavidL said:

    Eng W-v-SA W in 10 minutes. I would fancy their chances after that performance against Pakistan but who knows what a home crowd can inspire?

    The standard of women's cricket has improved out of all recognition in only a few years. It's now really good to watch (despite some shocking fielding by India yesterday).

    Never mind the fielding, the running between the wickets would embarrass a lot of school elevens. Did you see that insane run out?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    stjohn said:

    Yousaf 1.93-1.96
    Regan 4.0-5.1
    Forbes 3.5-3.8

    Looks like it could be an exciting contest.

    Yes, it's close. Forbes' price will have come in because of the SNP members poll. But there seems to be a huge amount to play for there in terms of undecideds.

    My guess is best campaign wins?
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    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,880
    What chance a Holyrood election this year?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,125

    DavidL said:

    Eng W-v-SA W in 10 minutes. I would fancy their chances after that performance against Pakistan but who knows what a home crowd can inspire?

    The standard of women's cricket has improved out of all recognition in only a few years. It's now really good to watch (despite some shocking fielding by India yesterday).

    Never mind the fielding, the running between the wickets would embarrass a lot of school elevens. Did you see that insane run out?
    Which one? There have been a few but in fairness it is 20;20. The men often do the same.

    Slowish start by SA but no wickets lost.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    I think this is sooner than expected ?

    Poland is sending Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine on Friday, the first of 14 vehicles the government has promised, according to an official who declined to be named, Bloomberg says.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1629067361511788545

    A touch of symbolism in the timing.
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    Jim Sillars enjoying a good old rant on R4….happy with the candidates and looking forward to hearing what they have to say on secular matters. “One person rule has not worked”….
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    Father of Cambodian child who died of H5N1 has tested positive.
    Though no evidence yet of human to human transmission.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    Seems weird that we have a bloody Boris thread when the SNP noms have just closed?
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,522
    OT. Listening to WATO headlines, amused to hear a boffin, when asked about the risk from the spread of bird flu, declaring "we need to watch it like a hawk".
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,089
    DavidL said:

    On topic can anyone see Boris wanting to put in the hard yards of LOTO for 4-5 years, even to get another crack at Downing Street? I think he would be quite good at it, he has a quick wit and taking the piss out of SKS really won't be hard but its still a lot of work and foregone income. I think he will have had enough.

    I can yes. He's addicted to SW1. Big dog, small kennel. Loves it.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,089

    Seems weird that we have a bloody Boris thread when the SNP noms have just closed?

    Glad I cashed out my little Yousaf position. Fluked a profit because in all honesty I don't really know what I'm doing on this one.
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    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Seems resonable to me, Bart. As long as they don't start fiddling with the text.

    By the way, I'm currently reading and enjoying The Person Of Color Of The Narcissus. Highly recommended.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    On UNS Uxbridge would go Labour yes but Mid Bedfordshire would stay Tory.

    So Boris if he wants to stay an MP should do a 'chicken run' to Nadine's safer and more rural seat.

    He could then be a contender for Leader of the Opposition if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election to Starmer and able to say 'I told you so, you should have stuck with me!'
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    Cicero said:

    Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim).
    I think people in the West are missing something that is growing obvious to the front line states, and increasingly to Russians themselves: the regime in Moscow is in a growing crisis. As one well connected Estonian said to me, "the Kremlin is now scorpions in a jar". The various factions are turning end-stage Putinism into a danse macabre, and though the population of Russia itself is still waiting to see what happens next, the idea that Russia can sustain another year of this catastrophic humiliation without cost to the regime is really not likely. Indeed the regime is beginning to circle the drain. I just came past the Russian Embassy. a big (for Estonia) demonstration with dozens of white-blue-white tribands (the anti-war Russian flag), and guess what? These were not Estonians, they were Russians.
    Putin continues the war, because he is hoping against hope that the West will crack, or that China will intervene, or some other unlikely miracle will happen. Yet trusting to luck is a fools errand, and the Russians are now beginning to understand that Russia no longer controls their own destiny, that their own primitive and shrinking economic resources will not avail them any kind of victory in the face of an implacable West, and that China will not be shackled to the corpse of Putinism, but is instead seeking opportunities to take control of significant assets after VVP falls. The Putinist conspiracies: kompromat, bribery and blackmail have all failed.
    A culmination is coming. As the ZSU gains more and more trained echelons equipped with the latest NATO kit, the ammunition shortage for Soviet era kit that has led to the stalemate over January and February will give way to a more mobile front and the Russian line will finally crack, as the mincing machine does its terrible work (as an aside, the Russian high command should surely face trial from their own side, even if they never make it to the Hague). Many analysts of the Soviet system knew the system was unsustainable, but the question was not if, but how and when the USSR would fall. The same applies now: the system will fall, the questions are how and when.
    The murderous thugs, commanding the peripheral units, such as Kadyrov and Prigrozhin are already trying to make plans to survive the wreck. Neither will in fact survive, for the Russian Stavka (GHQ) will kill them before their own fall and the free Chechens have far more battlefield experience in Ukraine than the Kadyrovtsi.
    So admitting uncertainty as to exact direction and timeline, we can I think be sure that the war is likely to end with the breaking of the will of the Kremlin and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the 2014 borders. After that the question which terrifies Western analysts is what happens next inside Russia. I could write more on that subject, but the character limit is upon me...

    Interesting post as always, but if Russia collapses as we both expect then do you think the Ukrainians will be satisfied with the 2014 border, which will leave them with Russia occupying their land still, or seek full liberation and a restoration of 1991 borders?

    I would personally love to see a full restoration of the 1991 borders, a total and clear failure of this war that leaves Russia without Crimea and not even a fig leaf to claim as "success". Show any future dictators what happens when you mess with the free world.
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    Been speaking with SNP leadership contender @AshReganSNP. She says her independence plan is not defacto referendum but a “voter empowerment mechanism” denies she’s Alex Salmond’s candidate, says there’s a conflict of interest in having Peter Murrell as party CEO.

    Believes she is the “unity candidate” for the SNP and wider independence movement, is spiritual not religious but respects others views - and wants people to respect her decision to send her kids to private school.


    Thread with several videos

    https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1629064619292491778
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    edited February 2023

    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards

    Mid Beds has a vacancy.
    Mid Beds also safer than Oxfordshire Tory seats. Wantage and Witney, even Henley are vulnerable to the LDs, all voted Remain and all in the top 50 LD target seats. Leave voting Banbury should be reasonably safe still but even that could fall if Labour won a landslide
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,909
    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-64759118

    "Roald Dahl's original books are to be printed under their Puffin titles, publishing house Penguin has said.

    The unaltered story books will now go alongside updated versions of his hugely popular children's writing.

    Earlier this week, Dahl's estate said books such as the BFG and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory had been made more suitable for modern audiences."
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,708

    Been speaking with SNP leadership contender @AshReganSNP. She says her independence plan is not defacto referendum but a “voter empowerment mechanism” denies she’s Alex Salmond’s candidate, says there’s a conflict of interest in having Peter Murrell as party CEO.

    Believes she is the “unity candidate” for the SNP and wider independence movement, is spiritual not religious but respects others views - and wants people to respect her decision to send her kids to private school.


    Thread with several videos

    https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1629064619292491778

    "conflict of interest in having Peter Murrell as party CEO" - pretty much what Malcy has been saying.
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    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Good article from a commentator who has been consistently right on the war in Ukraine.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-one-year-national-identity/673192/
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,522
    HYUFD said:

    On UNS Uxbridge would go Labour yes but Mid Bedfordshire would stay Tory.

    So Boris if he wants to stay an MP should do a 'chicken run' to Nadine's safer and more rural seat.

    He could then be a contender for Leader of the Opposition if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election to Starmer and able to say 'I told you so, you should have stuck with me!'

    The idea of Boris doing a chicken run to Nadine's seat is distinctly unappetising.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351

    OT. Listening to WATO headlines, amused to hear a boffin, when asked about the risk from the spread of bird flu, declaring "we need to watch it like a hawk".

    They can get it too, I think.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-64759118

    "Roald Dahl's original books are to be printed under their Puffin titles, publishing house Penguin has said.

    The unaltered story books will now go alongside updated versions of his hugely popular children's writing.

    Earlier this week, Dahl's estate said books such as the BFG and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory had been made more suitable for modern audiences."

    Let the market decide.
    They ought to have done this in the first place when they decided to meddle with the text.
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    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,909
    Nigelb said:

    I think this is sooner than expected ?

    Poland is sending Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine on Friday, the first of 14 vehicles the government has promised, according to an official who declined to be named, Bloomberg says.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1629067361511788545

    A touch of symbolism in the timing.

    BBC livestream is saying

    "Poland to handover more tanks soon

    Poland has delivered the first four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and will send more soon, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has announced.

    Speaking at a joint press conference with Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Morawiecki said the tanks would help protect Ukrainian troops on the Battlefield and more would be on the way "in a few days".

    The Polish PM also told reporters that 60 PT-91 tanks would also be sent to Ukraine in the coming days, the Unian news agency reports."
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    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Seems resonable to me, Bart. As long as they don't start fiddling with the text.

    By the way, I'm currently reading and enjoying The Person Of Color Of The Narcissus. Highly recommended.
    Though there's a time and a place for fiddling with the text. I have a book I've not read yet but am meaning to get around to: Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. It is a truth universally acknowledged that zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains.
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,201

    Cicero said:

    Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim).
    I think people in the West are missing something that is growing obvious to the front line states, and increasingly to Russians themselves: the regime in Moscow is in a growing crisis. As one well connected Estonian said to me, "the Kremlin is now scorpions in a jar". The various factions are turning end-stage Putinism into a danse macabre, and though the population of Russia itself is still waiting to see what happens next, the idea that Russia can sustain another year of this catastrophic humiliation without cost to the regime is really not likely. Indeed the regime is beginning to circle the drain. I just came past the Russian Embassy. a big (for Estonia) demonstration with dozens of white-blue-white tribands (the anti-war Russian flag), and guess what? These were not Estonians, they were Russians.
    Putin continues the war, because he is hoping against hope that the West will crack, or that China will intervene, or some other unlikely miracle will happen. Yet trusting to luck is a fools errand, and the Russians are now beginning to understand that Russia no longer controls their own destiny, that their own primitive and shrinking economic resources will not avail them any kind of victory in the face of an implacable West, and that China will not be shackled to the corpse of Putinism, but is instead seeking opportunities to take control of significant assets after VVP falls. The Putinist conspiracies: kompromat, bribery and blackmail have all failed.
    A culmination is coming. As the ZSU gains more and more trained echelons equipped with the latest NATO kit, the ammunition shortage for Soviet era kit that has led to the stalemate over January and February will give way to a more mobile front and the Russian line will finally crack, as the mincing machine does its terrible work (as an aside, the Russian high command should surely face trial from their own side, even if they never make it to the Hague). Many analysts of the Soviet system knew the system was unsustainable, but the question was not if, but how and when the USSR would fall. The same applies now: the system will fall, the questions are how and when.
    The murderous thugs, commanding the peripheral units, such as Kadyrov and Prigrozhin are already trying to make plans to survive the wreck. Neither will in fact survive, for the Russian Stavka (GHQ) will kill them before their own fall and the free Chechens have far more battlefield experience in Ukraine than the Kadyrovtsi.
    So admitting uncertainty as to exact direction and timeline, we can I think be sure that the war is likely to end with the breaking of the will of the Kremlin and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the 2014 borders. After that the question which terrifies Western analysts is what happens next inside Russia. I could write more on that subject, but the character limit is upon me...

    Interesting post as always, but if Russia collapses as we both expect then do you think the Ukrainians will be satisfied with the 2014 border, which will leave them with Russia occupying their land still, or seek full liberation and a restoration of 1991 borders?

    I would personally love to see a full restoration of the 1991 borders, a total and clear failure of this war that leaves Russia without Crimea and not even a fig leaf to claim as "success". Show any future dictators what happens when you mess with the free world.
    "2014 borders". I mean the borders before the first Russian invasion. I.e. the borders from 1991-2014 will be restored. I am forecasting a complete defeat for Putin.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,208
    edited February 2023
    Hopefully we can now all enjoy fewer hot takes along the lines of 'the Daily Mail would never say anything bad about a muslim, christianity is under siege'
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,458

    Cicero said:

    Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim).
    I think people in the West are missing something that is growing obvious to the front line states, and increasingly to Russians themselves: the regime in Moscow is in a growing crisis. As one well connected Estonian said to me, "the Kremlin is now scorpions in a jar". The various factions are turning end-stage Putinism into a danse macabre, and though the population of Russia itself is still waiting to see what happens next, the idea that Russia can sustain another year of this catastrophic humiliation without cost to the regime is really not likely. Indeed the regime is beginning to circle the drain. I just came past the Russian Embassy. a big (for Estonia) demonstration with dozens of white-blue-white tribands (the anti-war Russian flag), and guess what? These were not Estonians, they were Russians.
    Putin continues the war, because he is hoping against hope that the West will crack, or that China will intervene, or some other unlikely miracle will happen. Yet trusting to luck is a fools errand, and the Russians are now beginning to understand that Russia no longer controls their own destiny, that their own primitive and shrinking economic resources will not avail them any kind of victory in the face of an implacable West, and that China will not be shackled to the corpse of Putinism, but is instead seeking opportunities to take control of significant assets after VVP falls. The Putinist conspiracies: kompromat, bribery and blackmail have all failed.
    A culmination is coming. As the ZSU gains more and more trained echelons equipped with the latest NATO kit, the ammunition shortage for Soviet era kit that has led to the stalemate over January and February will give way to a more mobile front and the Russian line will finally crack, as the mincing machine does its terrible work (as an aside, the Russian high command should surely face trial from their own side, even if they never make it to the Hague). Many analysts of the Soviet system knew the system was unsustainable, but the question was not if, but how and when the USSR would fall. The same applies now: the system will fall, the questions are how and when.
    The murderous thugs, commanding the peripheral units, such as Kadyrov and Prigrozhin are already trying to make plans to survive the wreck. Neither will in fact survive, for the Russian Stavka (GHQ) will kill them before their own fall and the free Chechens have far more battlefield experience in Ukraine than the Kadyrovtsi.
    So admitting uncertainty as to exact direction and timeline, we can I think be sure that the war is likely to end with the breaking of the will of the Kremlin and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the 2014 borders. After that the question which terrifies Western analysts is what happens next inside Russia. I could write more on that subject, but the character limit is upon me...

    Interesting post as always, but if Russia collapses as we both expect then do you think the Ukrainians will be satisfied with the 2014 border, which will leave them with Russia occupying their land still, or seek full liberation and a restoration of 1991 borders?

    I would personally love to see a full restoration of the 1991 borders, a total and clear failure of this war that leaves Russia without Crimea and not even a fig leaf to claim as "success". Show any future dictators what happens when you mess with the free world.
    Obviously a withdrawal only to 2014 borders based on an armistice would be frustrating for Ukraine and leave Russia in a position to reload and prepare for the next war. That said, from a purely optical and propaganda perspective both inside Russia and elsewhere it might well be the outcome with the most powerful effect.

    Nothing states pointlessness like over a year of warfare, hundreds of thousands of deaths and a ruined economy for zero gain. Unlike the Ukraine victory outcome involving a recapture of Donbas and Crimea, there would be zero chance of Putin being able to scare Russians into the idea the world is trying to destroy them, and zero sympathy for those real or imagined persecuted Russian minorities in Donetsk and Luhansk. The whole thing would just look pathetic: Russia squarely the aggressor with no recourse to victimhood, but a 100% failure at the same time.

    The best PR outcome of all would involve a Russian withdrawal to 2014 borders followed by UN-overseen polls in occupied Crimea and Donbass with majorities voting to return to Ukraine.
  • Options
    AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,004
    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-64759118

    "Roald Dahl's original books are to be printed under their Puffin titles, publishing house Penguin has said.

    The unaltered story books will now go alongside updated versions of his hugely popular children's writing.

    Earlier this week, Dahl's estate said books such as the BFG and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory had been made more suitable for modern audiences."

    Let the market decide.
    They ought to have done this in the first place when they decided to meddle with the text.
    Great marketing by Penguin. Lots more Roald Dahl book buying/
  • Options
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim).
    I think people in the West are missing something that is growing obvious to the front line states, and increasingly to Russians themselves: the regime in Moscow is in a growing crisis. As one well connected Estonian said to me, "the Kremlin is now scorpions in a jar". The various factions are turning end-stage Putinism into a danse macabre, and though the population of Russia itself is still waiting to see what happens next, the idea that Russia can sustain another year of this catastrophic humiliation without cost to the regime is really not likely. Indeed the regime is beginning to circle the drain. I just came past the Russian Embassy. a big (for Estonia) demonstration with dozens of white-blue-white tribands (the anti-war Russian flag), and guess what? These were not Estonians, they were Russians.
    Putin continues the war, because he is hoping against hope that the West will crack, or that China will intervene, or some other unlikely miracle will happen. Yet trusting to luck is a fools errand, and the Russians are now beginning to understand that Russia no longer controls their own destiny, that their own primitive and shrinking economic resources will not avail them any kind of victory in the face of an implacable West, and that China will not be shackled to the corpse of Putinism, but is instead seeking opportunities to take control of significant assets after VVP falls. The Putinist conspiracies: kompromat, bribery and blackmail have all failed.
    A culmination is coming. As the ZSU gains more and more trained echelons equipped with the latest NATO kit, the ammunition shortage for Soviet era kit that has led to the stalemate over January and February will give way to a more mobile front and the Russian line will finally crack, as the mincing machine does its terrible work (as an aside, the Russian high command should surely face trial from their own side, even if they never make it to the Hague). Many analysts of the Soviet system knew the system was unsustainable, but the question was not if, but how and when the USSR would fall. The same applies now: the system will fall, the questions are how and when.
    The murderous thugs, commanding the peripheral units, such as Kadyrov and Prigrozhin are already trying to make plans to survive the wreck. Neither will in fact survive, for the Russian Stavka (GHQ) will kill them before their own fall and the free Chechens have far more battlefield experience in Ukraine than the Kadyrovtsi.
    So admitting uncertainty as to exact direction and timeline, we can I think be sure that the war is likely to end with the breaking of the will of the Kremlin and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the 2014 borders. After that the question which terrifies Western analysts is what happens next inside Russia. I could write more on that subject, but the character limit is upon me...

    Interesting post as always, but if Russia collapses as we both expect then do you think the Ukrainians will be satisfied with the 2014 border, which will leave them with Russia occupying their land still, or seek full liberation and a restoration of 1991 borders?

    I would personally love to see a full restoration of the 1991 borders, a total and clear failure of this war that leaves Russia without Crimea and not even a fig leaf to claim as "success". Show any future dictators what happens when you mess with the free world.
    "2014 borders". I mean the borders before the first Russian invasion. I.e. the borders from 1991-2014 will be restored. I am forecasting a complete defeat for Putin.
    Oh good, confusing because sometimes people use 2014 borders to mean 2014-2022.

    Glad we're on the same page. Yes I expect the same.
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    Been speaking with SNP leadership contender @AshReganSNP. She says her independence plan is not defacto referendum but a “voter empowerment mechanism” denies she’s Alex Salmond’s candidate, says there’s a conflict of interest in having Peter Murrell as party CEO.

    Believes she is the “unity candidate” for the SNP and wider independence movement, is spiritual not religious but respects others views - and wants people to respect her decision to send her kids to private school.


    Thread with several videos

    https://twitter.com/ginadavidsonlbc/status/1629064619292491778

    "conflict of interest in having Peter Murrell as party CEO" - pretty much what Malcy has been saying.
    It is a bit odd having the outgoing leader’s spouse run the election for her replacement. In the interests of transparency you’d have thought Peter Murrell would recuse himself.

    It’s not as though his time in office has been without controversy.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    kinabalu said:

    Seems weird that we have a bloody Boris thread when the SNP noms have just closed?

    Glad I cashed out my little Yousaf position. Fluked a profit because in all honesty I don't really know what I'm doing on this one.
    I haven’t a scooby, either, but laid him yesterday at Casino’s (I think ?) suggestion.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,230
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Puffin's solution is slightly different, they're releasing a set of "younger readers" rewritten books and also a "classic" set (Dahl)
    The Aristocats isn't available on a Disney+ Child's profile but you can watch it on the adult profile with a disclaimer in front as I did last night.
    NO SPOILERS PLEASE!
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,440

    HYUFD said:

    On UNS Uxbridge would go Labour yes but Mid Bedfordshire would stay Tory.

    So Boris if he wants to stay an MP should do a 'chicken run' to Nadine's safer and more rural seat.

    He could then be a contender for Leader of the Opposition if Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election to Starmer and able to say 'I told you so, you should have stuck with me!'

    The idea of Boris doing a chicken run to Nadine's seat is distinctly unappetising.
    Could this have been planned months ago? It all seems a little convenient.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    Tres said:

    Hopefully we can now all enjoy fewer hot takes along the lines of 'the Daily Mail would never say anything bad about a muslim, christianity is under siege'

    Muslims united with evangelical Christians in opposing homosexual marriage
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    stjohn said:

    From previous thread. Just after noon when nominations closed I backed Ash Regan to be next SNP leader. £100 at 5.17. With the obvious flaws in her two opponent candidates already laid out on these pages, she could be the Goldilocks candidate. Money for her now. Last price matched 3.25.

    I got on her at 9.4 :)
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Eng W-v-SA W in 10 minutes. I would fancy their chances after that performance against Pakistan but who knows what a home crowd can inspire?

    The standard of women's cricket has improved out of all recognition in only a few years. It's now really good to watch (despite some shocking fielding by India yesterday).

    Never mind the fielding, the running between the wickets would embarrass a lot of school elevens. Did you see that insane run out?
    Which one? There have been a few but in fairness it is 20;20. The men often do the same.

    Slowish start by SA but no wickets lost.
    This one: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/cricket/64749742

    For some reason the BBC called it unlucky. Schoolgirl error to me.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,230
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    Hopefully we can now all enjoy fewer hot takes along the lines of 'the Daily Mail would never say anything bad about a muslim, christianity is under siege'

    Muslims united with evangelical Christians in opposing homosexual marriage
    Don't evangelical Christians also support the Jews in Israel for some biblical reason or another?
  • Options
    Cicero said:

    Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim).
    I think people in the West are missing something that is growing obvious to the front line states, and increasingly to Russians themselves: the regime in Moscow is in a growing crisis. As one well connected Estonian said to me, "the Kremlin is now scorpions in a jar". The various factions are turning end-stage Putinism into a danse macabre, and though the population of Russia itself is still waiting to see what happens next, the idea that Russia can sustain another year of this catastrophic humiliation without cost to the regime is really not likely. Indeed the regime is beginning to circle the drain. I just came past the Russian Embassy. a big (for Estonia) demonstration with dozens of white-blue-white tribands (the anti-war Russian flag), and guess what? These were not Estonians, they were Russians.
    Putin continues the war, because he is hoping against hope that the West will crack, or that China will intervene, or some other unlikely miracle will happen. Yet trusting to luck is a fools errand, and the Russians are now beginning to understand that Russia no longer controls their own destiny, that their own primitive and shrinking economic resources will not avail them any kind of victory in the face of an implacable West, and that China will not be shackled to the corpse of Putinism, but is instead seeking opportunities to take control of significant assets after VVP falls. The Putinist conspiracies: kompromat, bribery and blackmail have all failed.
    A culmination is coming. As the ZSU gains more and more trained echelons equipped with the latest NATO kit, the ammunition shortage for Soviet era kit that has led to the stalemate over January and February will give way to a more mobile front and the Russian line will finally crack, as the mincing machine does its terrible work (as an aside, the Russian high command should surely face trial from their own side, even if they never make it to the Hague). Many analysts of the Soviet system knew the system was unsustainable, but the question was not if, but how and when the USSR would fall. The same applies now: the system will fall, the questions are how and when.
    The murderous thugs, commanding the peripheral units, such as Kadyrov and Prigrozhin are already trying to make plans to survive the wreck. Neither will in fact survive, for the Russian Stavka (GHQ) will kill them before their own fall and the free Chechens have far more battlefield experience in Ukraine than the Kadyrovtsi.
    So admitting uncertainty as to exact direction and timeline, we can I think be sure that the war is likely to end with the breaking of the will of the Kremlin and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the 2014 borders. After that the question which terrifies Western analysts is what happens next inside Russia. I could write more on that subject, but the character limit is upon me...

    What if the war continues to November next year and Trump or a trumpy Republican wins?
    Russia needs to have lost by then or the Democrats need to win.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think this is sooner than expected ?

    Poland is sending Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine on Friday, the first of 14 vehicles the government has promised, according to an official who declined to be named, Bloomberg says.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1629067361511788545

    A touch of symbolism in the timing.

    BBC livestream is saying

    "Poland to handover more tanks soon

    Poland has delivered the first four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and will send more soon, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has announced.

    Speaking at a joint press conference with Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, Morawiecki said the tanks would help protect Ukrainian troops on the Battlefield and more would be on the way "in a few days".

    The Polish PM also told reporters that 60 PT-91 tanks would also be sent to Ukraine in the coming days, the Unian news agency reports."
    That’s a lot, and therefore likely to include some of the more modern variants, as they’ve already sent some. Basically a T72 with better armour and more modern fire control.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PT-91_Twardy
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351

    Pulpstar said:

    I note Disney and Puffin seem to have come to similar conclusions for old content that contravenes the woke laws.

    What do you mean? Not seen anything about Puffin.

    Unless they've changed recently, Disney's solution is quite smart. They have on Disney+ the full, unedited versions of the movies as they were released - but put up a disclaimer before it starts saying that it was made in a different era to different standards and some may now find offensive, or something along those lines.

    Unless you're looking for offence one way or another, that seems like a sensible compromise. Don't compromise the integrity of the art, and if you're offended by a disclaimer you're just as sensitive as the worst of the woke.

    If Puffin do the same, put a new page at the start with a disclaimer but leave the text of the book unaltered, that seems logical.
    Seems resonable to me, Bart. As long as they don't start fiddling with the text.

    By the way, I'm currently reading and enjoying The Person Of Color Of The Narcissus. Highly recommended.
    Though there's a time and a place for fiddling with the text. I have a book I've not read yet but am meaning to get around to: Pride and Prejudice and Zombies. It is a truth universally acknowledged that zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains.
    The movie is excellent.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,938
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    Hopefully we can now all enjoy fewer hot takes along the lines of 'the Daily Mail would never say anything bad about a muslim, christianity is under siege'

    Muslims united with evangelical Christians in opposing homosexual marriage
    Don't evangelical Christians also support the Jews in Israel for some biblical reason or another?
    They are united with Orthodox Jews in backing expanded settlements for Jews in Israel yes as it is the Holy Land for them, so that is one area evangelical Christians and Muslims disagree. In fact some Anglicans and Catholics disagree with evangelicals on that too as they tend to have stronger ties to the minority of Palestinians who are Christians not Muslims than to Israeli Jews
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-64759118

    "Roald Dahl's original books are to be printed under their Puffin titles, publishing house Penguin has said.

    The unaltered story books will now go alongside updated versions of his hugely popular children's writing.

    Earlier this week, Dahl's estate said books such as the BFG and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory had been made more suitable for modern audiences."

    Let the market decide.
    They ought to have done this in the first place when they decided to meddle with the text.
    Prediction: libraries and schools will buy the edited versions, parents will mostly buy the originals.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,216
    ohnotnow said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think this is sooner than expected ?

    Poland is sending Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine on Friday, the first of 14 vehicles the government has promised, according to an official who declined to be named, Bloomberg says.
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1629067361511788545

    A touch of symbolism in the timing.

    BBC livestream is saying

    "Poland to handover more tanks soon…

    Naughty BBC, using a noun as a verb like that.

  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,380
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    Seems weird that we have a bloody Boris thread when the SNP noms have just closed?

    Glad I cashed out my little Yousaf position. Fluked a profit because in all honesty I don't really know what I'm doing on this one.
    I haven’t a scooby, either, but laid him yesterday at Casino’s (I think ?) suggestion.
    I just bet against the market a few days back (i.e. backed Forbes and Regan and laid Yousaf) as I knew bugger all but thought the markets were overreacting to the Forbes story, Regan would gain as people saw more of her and Yousaf was a bit too short. Forbes and Regan are now tradeable at a profit, although I'm still down on Yousaf. Sitting tight for now, hoping Forbes doesn't say anything else silly.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,727
    How did the SNP end up with just these 3 candidates ?

    It really is a poor choice for their membership to chose from and Labour must think Christmas has come early .

    The choice being Mr Angry , Miss Bible Basher and Miss Non-entity .
  • Options
    Two council by-elections last night, one each in Wales (Wrexham) and Scotland (Aberdeen)

    In Wales, Plaid Cymru held off a challenge from Labour and retained their seat.

    In Scotland, SNP failed to match them: although they led on first preferences, there was a significant swing to Labour, and Labour gained the seat (from Con) at stage 8. Remember that Scotland has STV, and last time out the SNP were well ahead of the others, winning two of the four seats with Con ahead of Labour too.

    Good Week/Bad Week Index:

    PC +41
    Lab +38
    Con +3
    Grn -3
    LDm -4
    SNP -16

    Adjusted Seat Value

    PC +0.7
    Lab +0.6
    Con +0.0
    Grn +0.0
    LDm -0.1
    SNP -0.3

    For a full explanation of the Good Week/Bad Week Index, see: https://drinkentire.wordpress.com/2023/02/07/the-good-week-bad-week-index/
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,458

    Cicero said:

    Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim).
    I think people in the West are missing something that is growing obvious to the front line states, and increasingly to Russians themselves: the regime in Moscow is in a growing crisis. As one well connected Estonian said to me, "the Kremlin is now scorpions in a jar". The various factions are turning end-stage Putinism into a danse macabre, and though the population of Russia itself is still waiting to see what happens next, the idea that Russia can sustain another year of this catastrophic humiliation without cost to the regime is really not likely. Indeed the regime is beginning to circle the drain. I just came past the Russian Embassy. a big (for Estonia) demonstration with dozens of white-blue-white tribands (the anti-war Russian flag), and guess what? These were not Estonians, they were Russians.
    Putin continues the war, because he is hoping against hope that the West will crack, or that China will intervene, or some other unlikely miracle will happen. Yet trusting to luck is a fools errand, and the Russians are now beginning to understand that Russia no longer controls their own destiny, that their own primitive and shrinking economic resources will not avail them any kind of victory in the face of an implacable West, and that China will not be shackled to the corpse of Putinism, but is instead seeking opportunities to take control of significant assets after VVP falls. The Putinist conspiracies: kompromat, bribery and blackmail have all failed.
    A culmination is coming. As the ZSU gains more and more trained echelons equipped with the latest NATO kit, the ammunition shortage for Soviet era kit that has led to the stalemate over January and February will give way to a more mobile front and the Russian line will finally crack, as the mincing machine does its terrible work (as an aside, the Russian high command should surely face trial from their own side, even if they never make it to the Hague). Many analysts of the Soviet system knew the system was unsustainable, but the question was not if, but how and when the USSR would fall. The same applies now: the system will fall, the questions are how and when.
    The murderous thugs, commanding the peripheral units, such as Kadyrov and Prigrozhin are already trying to make plans to survive the wreck. Neither will in fact survive, for the Russian Stavka (GHQ) will kill them before their own fall and the free Chechens have far more battlefield experience in Ukraine than the Kadyrovtsi.
    So admitting uncertainty as to exact direction and timeline, we can I think be sure that the war is likely to end with the breaking of the will of the Kremlin and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the 2014 borders. After that the question which terrifies Western analysts is what happens next inside Russia. I could write more on that subject, but the character limit is upon me...

    What if the war continues to November next year and Trump or a trumpy Republican wins?
    Russia needs to have lost by then or the Democrats need to win.
    Not sure. The famous deep state / military industrial complex that American conspiracists obsess over does sort of exist in more of a blob sense of the word, and I imagine would lead to some inertia over any change in policy. I assume quite a few armaments manufacturers in Red states.
  • Options

    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards

    A manor house in Brightwell-cum-Sotwell

    https://www.thesteepletimes.com/opulence-splendour/brightwell-manor-boris/

    Theoretically that seat could be won by the Libs, assuming mass tactical voting:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wantage_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
    Majority of 12.6 thousand with 10 thousand Labour to squeeze, sounds possible.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    edited February 2023
    Good account of the lead up to the invasion. Biden made (edit) two attempts to prevent it a year earlier.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/23/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-leadership-comedy-00083489
    … GEN. PAUL NAKASONE, director, National Security Agency, and commander, U.S. Cyber Command: We knew they weren’t going to invade in April 2021. Why do we know it was an exercise? Because the U.S. intelligence community really knows when Russia conducts exercises, and it was an exercise.

    JAKE SULLIVAN: Part of the motivating impulse for making the proposal for the summit in Geneva [in June 2021] was to try to create an alternative path that would involve Russia deescalating around Ukraine and us trying to inject some stability — not just into the U.S.-Russia relationship, but stability into the broader Ukraine situation. When President Biden met with President Putin in Geneva, obviously the top story around that visit was the ransomware attacks and cyber, but a healthy amount of the discussion behind closed doors was about Ukraine...

    … BILL BURNS: The trip the president asked me to take to Moscow at the beginning of November was to lay out in an unusual amount of detail exactly why we were concerned that Putin was preparing for a major new invasion, and then to be very clear about what the consequences would be should Putin choose to execute that plan. I had a bad feeling going out on that trip about what was coming. That was only reinforced by the conversations I had there.
  • Options
    I would like to thank the SNP and the Tories for delivering the next Labour Government.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,775
    Coming late to this anniversary, but my God

    The desolate POINTLESSNESS

    Half a million dead? Several million injured and displaced and grieving

    And for what?

    Russia cannot win. It may not lose, but it cannot win.


    There is a woman Ukrainian MP crying on Al Jazeera English right now. Weeping for her dead friends, her injured husband, ah fuck it
  • Options

    Hasn't he bought a farmhouse in Oxfordshire or something. Sounds like a chicken run might be on the cards

    Maybe, but if that's the case then we can rule out Oxfordshire as the place the chicken runs to.

    The absolute last thing he wants is to live in his constituency.
  • Options

    I would like to thank the SNP and the Tories for delivering the next Labour Government.

    You do know what follows hubris ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    I would like to thank the SNP and the Tories for delivering the next Labour Government.

    You do know what follows hubris ?
    To be fair, he didn't specify when it would be delivered.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Coming late to this anniversary, but my God

    The desolate POINTLESSNESS

    Half a million dead? Several million injured and displaced and grieving

    And for what?

    Russia cannot win. It may not lose, but it cannot win.


    There is a woman Ukrainian MP crying on Al Jazeera English right now. Weeping for her dead friends, her injured husband, ah fuck it

    Absolutely. Let us also not forget the many fans of Vladimir Putin in the West who encouraged him on right until the day of the invasion. Most have since changed their tune but even so the blood remains on their hands.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,129
    nico679 said:

    How did the SNP end up with just these 3 candidates ?

    It really is a poor choice for their membership to chose from and Labour must think Christmas has come early .

    The choice being Mr Angry , Miss Bible Basher and Miss Non-entity .

    We spend so much time focussing on the dearth of talent in the upper echelons of the Tory Party that we (especially the large majority of us not resident in Scotland) may simply have failed to notice that the SNP suffers from a similar vacuum?

    Has Mr Angry said anything convincing in support of same-sex marriage (and to rebuff the rumours surrounding his convenient-looking absence from the final parliamentary vote on the matter?) If he does, he wins. Miss Bible Basher is already disqualified by her social conservatism and Miss Non-Entity will probably come a cropper likewise for being too chummy (in the view of most of the selectorate, at any rate,) with TERFs.
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    I would like to thank the SNP and the Tories for delivering the next Labour Government.

    You do know what follows hubris ?
    It was said slightly tongue in cheek.

    But I am happy to claim the prize of Batterydamus
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    AlistairM said:

    Nigelb said:

    ohnotnow said:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-64759118

    "Roald Dahl's original books are to be printed under their Puffin titles, publishing house Penguin has said.

    The unaltered story books will now go alongside updated versions of his hugely popular children's writing.

    Earlier this week, Dahl's estate said books such as the BFG and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory had been made more suitable for modern audiences."

    Let the market decide.
    They ought to have done this in the first place when they decided to meddle with the text.
    Great marketing by Penguin. Lots more Roald Dahl book buying/
    All the angry anti-woke bloggers will be buying both versions to compare and find something to virtue signal their anger and contempt for modernity.
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    I will now be known as BatteryDamus, thank you
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,331
    edited February 2023
    I am still slightly stunned at the performance of Harry Brook on Day I of the 2nd Test.. I refuse to pay BT a cent of my money, but their highlights offered for free are like the Company. CRAP. That's why I left BT.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,351
    Nigelb said:

    Good account of the lead up to the invasion. Biden made (edit) two attempts to prevent it a year earlier.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/23/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-leadership-comedy-00083489
    … GEN. PAUL NAKASONE, director, National Security Agency, and commander, U.S. Cyber Command: We knew they weren’t going to invade in April 2021. Why do we know it was an exercise? Because the U.S. intelligence community really knows when Russia conducts exercises, and it was an exercise.

    JAKE SULLIVAN: Part of the motivating impulse for making the proposal for the summit in Geneva [in June 2021] was to try to create an alternative path that would involve Russia deescalating around Ukraine and us trying to inject some stability — not just into the U.S.-Russia relationship, but stability into the broader Ukraine situation. When President Biden met with President Putin in Geneva, obviously the top story around that visit was the ransomware attacks and cyber, but a healthy amount of the discussion behind closed doors was about Ukraine...

    … BILL BURNS: The trip the president asked me to take to Moscow at the beginning of November was to lay out in an unusual amount of detail exactly why we were concerned that Putin was preparing for a major new invasion, and then to be very clear about what the consequences would be should Putin choose to execute that plan. I had a bad feeling going out on that trip about what was coming. That was only reinforced by the conversations I had there.

    Plus a last ditch effort.
    … AMB. MICHAEL CARPENTER: We thought, “OK, if there’s a crisis of European security, then let’s talk about it. Let’s identify the Russian concerns and see if there’s a way that we can address them through diplomacy.” Poland assumed the chairperson-ship of the OSCE on January 1, 2022, and so I immediately went to go visit with the Polish Foreign Minister to talk about the diplomatic angle. He was very receptive, and subsequently launched a process called the renewed European Security Dialogue. Russia basically refused to engage, and that’s when it became increasingly clear the Kremlin really had no interest in diplomacy all along. It was bent on war.

    All of its alleged concerns — everything that it was putting out there in the public domain — was really a smokescreen. They turned their backs completely on the diplomacy that we were proposing at the OSCE, the diplomacy that was being proposed on behalf of NATO and then also bilaterally what we were discussing with the Russians. There was nothing to offer them, because they didn’t even want to talk…
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,775
    I’d like it to be true, but I don’t see how Russia loses this “outright”

    Putin has successfully made the war existential. Therefore Russian defeat in Ukraine is the conquest of Russia. That cannot happen because Russian is a great power WITH NUKES. Even if Putin is toppled no replacement will be allowed to negotiate “surrender”

    This is Korean War 2.0. Quagmire and Armistice beckons, eventually
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    pigeon said:

    nico679 said:

    How did the SNP end up with just these 3 candidates ?

    It really is a poor choice for their membership to chose from and Labour must think Christmas has come early .

    The choice being Mr Angry , Miss Bible Basher and Miss Non-entity .

    We spend so much time focussing on the dearth of talent in the upper echelons of the Tory Party that we (especially the large majority of us not resident in Scotland) may simply have failed to notice that the SNP suffers from a similar vacuum?

    Has Mr Angry said anything convincing in support of same-sex marriage (and to rebuff the rumours surrounding his convenient-looking absence from the final parliamentary vote on the matter?) If he does, he wins. Miss Bible Basher is already disqualified by her social conservatism and Miss Non-Entity will probably come a cropper likewise for being too chummy (in the view of most of the selectorate, at any rate,) with TERFs.
    Also highlights how remarkable Salmond and Sturgeon were as politicians. Not enough to get Sindy popular enough that it couldn't be denied (there's some combination of time and percentage that can't be defined but we'll know it if we see it). But remarkable for all that.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,220
    TimS said:

    Cicero said:

    Just a brief follow up, now I have returned from the Estonian national day parade (Ukrainian troops took part, to considerable acclaim).
    I think people in the West are missing something that is growing obvious to the front line states, and increasingly to Russians themselves: the regime in Moscow is in a growing crisis. As one well connected Estonian said to me, "the Kremlin is now scorpions in a jar". The various factions are turning end-stage Putinism into a danse macabre, and though the population of Russia itself is still waiting to see what happens next, the idea that Russia can sustain another year of this catastrophic humiliation without cost to the regime is really not likely. Indeed the regime is beginning to circle the drain. I just came past the Russian Embassy. a big (for Estonia) demonstration with dozens of white-blue-white tribands (the anti-war Russian flag), and guess what? These were not Estonians, they were Russians.
    Putin continues the war, because he is hoping against hope that the West will crack, or that China will intervene, or some other unlikely miracle will happen. Yet trusting to luck is a fools errand, and the Russians are now beginning to understand that Russia no longer controls their own destiny, that their own primitive and shrinking economic resources will not avail them any kind of victory in the face of an implacable West, and that China will not be shackled to the corpse of Putinism, but is instead seeking opportunities to take control of significant assets after VVP falls. The Putinist conspiracies: kompromat, bribery and blackmail have all failed.
    A culmination is coming. As the ZSU gains more and more trained echelons equipped with the latest NATO kit, the ammunition shortage for Soviet era kit that has led to the stalemate over January and February will give way to a more mobile front and the Russian line will finally crack, as the mincing machine does its terrible work (as an aside, the Russian high command should surely face trial from their own side, even if they never make it to the Hague). Many analysts of the Soviet system knew the system was unsustainable, but the question was not if, but how and when the USSR would fall. The same applies now: the system will fall, the questions are how and when.
    The murderous thugs, commanding the peripheral units, such as Kadyrov and Prigrozhin are already trying to make plans to survive the wreck. Neither will in fact survive, for the Russian Stavka (GHQ) will kill them before their own fall and the free Chechens have far more battlefield experience in Ukraine than the Kadyrovtsi.
    So admitting uncertainty as to exact direction and timeline, we can I think be sure that the war is likely to end with the breaking of the will of the Kremlin and the withdrawal of Russian forces to the 2014 borders. After that the question which terrifies Western analysts is what happens next inside Russia. I could write more on that subject, but the character limit is upon me...

    What if the war continues to November next year and Trump or a trumpy Republican wins?
    Russia needs to have lost by then or the Democrats need to win.
    Not sure. The famous deep state / military industrial complex that American conspiracists obsess over does sort of exist in more of a blob sense of the word, and I imagine would lead to some inertia over any change in policy. I assume quite a few armaments manufacturers in Red states.
    The GOP are falling in love with the “Practise for Taiwan” narrative.

    Plus given their own rhetoric on this, massively increasing arms production capability isn’t something they can oppose.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,331
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    Hopefully we can now all enjoy fewer hot takes along the lines of 'the Daily Mail would never say anything bad about a muslim, christianity is under siege'

    Muslims united with evangelical Christians in opposing homosexual marriage
    Its's not just evangelical Christians who.oppose gay marriage in Church.
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    Harry Brook seems to come out of nowhere?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,902
    edited February 2023

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Eng W-v-SA W in 10 minutes. I would fancy their chances after that performance against Pakistan but who knows what a home crowd can inspire?

    The standard of women's cricket has improved out of all recognition in only a few years. It's now really good to watch (despite some shocking fielding by India yesterday).

    Never mind the fielding, the running between the wickets would embarrass a lot of school elevens. Did you see that insane run out?
    Which one? There have been a few but in fairness it is 20;20. The men often do the same.

    Slowish start by SA but no wickets lost.
    This one: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/cricket/64749742

    For some reason the BBC called it unlucky. Schoolgirl error to me.
    x
    x

    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    Hopefully we can now all enjoy fewer hot takes along the lines of 'the Daily Mail would never say anything bad about a muslim, christianity is under siege'

    Muslims united with evangelical Christians in opposing homosexual marriage
    Its's not just evangelical Christians who.oppose gay marriage in Church.
    True, bigots can be found everywhere
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,201
    AlistairM said:

    Good article from a commentator who has been consistently right on the war in Ukraine.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/russia-ukraine-war-one-year-national-identity/673192/

    Yes, he and Mart Kuldkepp at UCL have been consistently right in their judgments.
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    pigeon said:

    nico679 said:

    How did the SNP end up with just these 3 candidates ?

    It really is a poor choice for their membership to chose from and Labour must think Christmas has come early .

    The choice being Mr Angry , Miss Bible Basher and Miss Non-entity .

    We spend so much time focussing on the dearth of talent in the upper echelons of the Tory Party that we (especially the large majority of us not resident in Scotland) may simply have failed to notice that the SNP suffers from a similar vacuum?

    Has Mr Angry said anything convincing in support of same-sex marriage (and to rebuff the rumours surrounding his convenient-looking absence from the final parliamentary vote on the matter?) If he does, he wins. Miss Bible Basher is already disqualified by her social conservatism and Miss Non-Entity will probably come a cropper likewise for being too chummy (in the view of most of the selectorate, at any rate,) with TERFs.
    Mrs Bible Basher, please. And I think she can win. Polling of 2021 SNP voters suggests she's their choice, plus she's generally regarded as competent. The members are even more likely than 2021 voters to prioritise independence above social issues, and they are the electorate. If the members think Forbes will be the best for independence then I suspect they will vote for her.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,306
    Boris losing would be a Portillo moment. I suspect for that reason, a lot of people will put a lot of effort to see it happen. I'm still not convinced though. I feel that he will probably stay, and probably win.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,089
    Leon said:

    I’d like it to be true, but I don’t see how Russia loses this “outright”

    Putin has successfully made the war existential. Therefore Russian defeat in Ukraine is the conquest of Russia. That cannot happen because Russian is a great power WITH NUKES. Even if Putin is toppled no replacement will be allowed to negotiate “surrender”

    This is Korean War 2.0. Quagmire and Armistice beckons, eventually

    I have little doubt that in the unlikely event that Ukraine successfully captured the Russian city of Belgorod, and the Russian armed forces were unable to counterattack, that Russia would use nuclear weapons to defend itself against Ukrainian conquest of Russian territory.

    However, although Russia formally claims the territory of Crimea, Kherson, Zoporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk as part of the Russian Federation, they have since been forced to retreat from the city of Kherson, and did not respond with the use of nuclear weapons. So it has already been proven that Russia regards the status of Ukrainian territory that it has conquered differently to territory within the internationally recognised borders of Russia.

    So your argument doesn't follow.

    The war may still be heading for a stalemate, if Russia remains able to conscript enough people to replace its losses, and either produce or procure sufficient weaponry and ammunition to keep their army sufficiently supplied that it can keep fighting. But not because of nukes.
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    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,129
    Leon said:

    I’d like it to be true, but I don’t see how Russia loses this “outright”

    Putin has successfully made the war existential. Therefore Russian defeat in Ukraine is the conquest of Russia. That cannot happen because Russian is a great power WITH NUKES. Even if Putin is toppled no replacement will be allowed to negotiate “surrender”

    This is Korean War 2.0. Quagmire and Armistice beckons, eventually

    Pretty much. Apart from anything else, Russia has an almost limitless supply of cannon fodder.

    It all ends with partition along a line of control as per Kashmir, with neither side recognising the territory held by the other de jure, but an accommodation being reached de facto. The 80% of Ukraine that remains unoccupied will then be pumped so full of cash and weapons that the cost of trying to resume the war of conquest at some point in the future will be too steep for Putin or his successors to stomach.

    This state having been reached, the key challenge will then be to maintain a degree of unity with respect to the ostracism of Russia. Fundamentally, this is a fascist state with a fascist leadership and an overwhelmingly fascist-sympathising population: the existence of a handful of doomed internal dissidents and Pussy Riot does nothing to alter the fact that most Russians back both Putin and his imperial ambitions to the hilt. There will have to be a lot of determined diplomacy to prevent potential backsliders like Italy and Germany from trying to resume antebellum positions on trade and appeasement.
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