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There’s life in the old dog yet – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited February 2023 in General
imageThere’s life in the old dog yet – politicalbetting.com

One of the constants in politics – more so from the Left – is how activists insist on telling voters that various events are “inevitable”. Somehow I’ve missed the inevitable triumph of communism. the inevitable collapse of capitalism and the inevitable collapse of civilisation due to warming/overpopulation/no oil ( take your pick ) . 

Read the full story here

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    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    First
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Nice piece, and much of it is true

    You miss one thing: Brexit (which I supported and support) has been a fucking nightmare of tedium and hassle. And expense. Any break up of the ancient UK would be orders of magnitude worse, and this will stay the OUT voting hand of many, I suggest

    And no secessionist can get away with airy claims of “oh it’ll be fine” as too many Leavers did. That trick has been played, it cannot be played again
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    If your comment about not paying their way is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, what would happen with a newly independent Scotland or Wales and their pension and benefits liabilities ?

    How would these be covered from their budgets as separate nations ?
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,411
    edited February 2023
    You wait forever for a thread by Alanbrooke and then two turn up together.
  • Options


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited February 2023


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.

    There are opportunities that Scotland and Wales are not taking because they are in the Union.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,897
    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @KevinASchofield: Every time Rishi Sunak talks about "our precious union" when talking about Northern Ireland and Brexit, he sounds just like Theresa May.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    @RedfieldWilton: Lowest % to say they approve of the government's performance on the NHS that we've recorded.

    Do British voters app… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628366493300797440
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,085


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Took quite a long time though. Will people accept being poorer on the promise that in 50/100 years the country will be comparatively wealthier?
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Took quite a long time though. Will people accept being poorer on the promise that in 50/100 years the country will be comparatively wealthier?
    Why can't Scotland or Wales learn from Ireland's mistakes ? They can do it faster.

    I am just pointing out we have an explicit counter-example.

    RoI broke away a poor & backward country, and it is now more prosperous than Wales (& probably Scotland).
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Nice bit of reminiscence by Starmer here:

    https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1628314786055290880?s=20
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,484


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Yet we seek to increase ours to make business pay. The govt doing this largely on the back of pressure from the opposition.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    Wales has been run very badly. It is poorer now than it was in 1999, before devolution.

    But, that it is an argument against the status quo.

    (I agree RoI made some suboptimal decisions along the way, so I think 20 years is a more realistic timeframe).
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    edited February 2023
    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    I’ll argue the contrary, that, even if the question were put to the Scottish public, the issues around borders, debts, and currency, have made the case for independence more difficult.

    The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.

    Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,897
    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    The reason is, in 2014 both sides assumed the UK and a potentially independent Scotland would both be in the EU. Now you have a choice of unions. The bad news for the United Kingdom is that the union with Europe is considerably more popular (three quarters) than the union with England (half). This is reflected in switchers. There are more No/Remain switchers to Yes than there are Yes/Leave switchers to No. While support for independence waxes and wanes it does so at a higher tide mark.

    The other thing is that the No margin in 2014 was heavily dependent on the 65+ group. That group is now 75+and dying out

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    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    I’ll argue the contrary, that, even if the question were put to the Scottish public, the issues around borders, debts, and currency, have made the case for independence more difficult.

    The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.

    Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
    Given the current regime in Scotland if they were in charge that would not appear to be too likely.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    Wales has been run very badly. It is poorer now than it was in 1999, before devolution.

    But, that it is an argument against the status quo.

    (I agree RoI made some suboptimal decisions along the way, so I think 20 years is a more realistic timeframe).
    Is it?

    I don’t disagree that it is run badly, but I understood that it had very very modestly closed the gap with regions like the NE.

    Of course the gap with the SE and the rest of the world grows larger…
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    I’ll argue the contrary, that, even if the question were put to the Scottish public, the issues around borders, debts, and currency, have made the case for independence more difficult.

    The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.

    Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
    It took Ireland about 60 years of poverty, post independence, for her left wing economic views to be dropped and embrace that thinking. I bet Scotland would be similar. Anyone arguing for a centre right policy would be slurred as a Tory.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    I'm fairly sure the Russian people will get no say in the matter, and it will be a decision for the crooks in and around the Kremlin.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    That's not fair. They will also be a Chinese mine.
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    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    The reason is, in 2014 both sides assumed the UK and a potentially independent Scotland would both be in the EU. Now you have a choice of unions. The bad news for the United Kingdom is that the union with Europe is considerably more popular (three quarters) than the union with England (half). This is reflected in switchers. There are more No/Remain switchers to Yes than there are Yes/Leave switchers to No. While support for independence waxes and wanes it does so at a higher tide mark.

    The other thing is that the No margin in 2014 was heavily dependent on the 65+ group. That group is now 75+and dying out

    I’m never particularly convinced by demographic arguments. Peoples opinions don’t remain static, they evolve over time.

    Sentiment towards the EU may be more favourable in Scotland but the practicalities remain a concern. You would be erecting a border in GB which is a logistical and cultural nightmare.

    That’s not to say I don’t think Scotland would ever vote for independence. I think there’s got to be a decent chance in the next 50 years. But it’s far from an inevitability.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,054
    edited February 2023
    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    No, the changes in the prosperity of RoI didn't take 100 years, more like a quarter of that.

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Ireland got lucky in multiple ways

    They joined the EU at just the right time, when the Union was growing and prosperous, and comprised almost entirely of fairly rich countries willing to give Dublin loads of money, as an example of what the EU can do to poor countries, They made the Celtic Tiger

    Ireland went deliberately for a super low corporate tax regime, arguably parasitic. Arguably immoral, even. But they got away with it for decades, because its a small country and people were forgiving

    Ireland was a young country back then; Ireland speaks the international language of English

    Ireland has freeloaded off the UK in terms of defence (and health to an extent) it was able to pump money into growth

    Ireland was fairly empty (easy to develop), had no declining industries and towns to support, and had the goodwill of the world, after a really shit 300 years or so

    No new country will be able to repeat all of this. Or even a small part of it

    Good luck to the Irish, they deserved a break. It won’t happen again
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    The reason is, in 2014 both sides assumed the UK and a potentially independent Scotland would both be in the EU. Now you have a choice of unions. The bad news for the United Kingdom is that the union with Europe is considerably more popular (three quarters) than the union with England (half). This is reflected in switchers. There are more No/Remain switchers to Yes than there are Yes/Leave switchers to No. While support for independence waxes and wanes it does so at a higher tide mark.

    The other thing is that the No margin in 2014 was heavily dependent on the 65+ group. That group is now 75+and dying out

    And yet, all the polls say you are wrong. Simply wrong. How can Yes STILL be behind 10 years after the No voters were meant to start dying out? How? Unless Yes voters become No voters over time?

    You’re a bitter Remoaner idiot desperate for the UK to break up, it is tragic to witness
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    glw said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    I'm fairly sure the Russian people will get no say in the matter, and it will be a decision for the crooks in and around the Kremlin.
    There is even a word in Russian - договорняк - which means an agreement concocted by the government against the interests of Russia. We have no such word in English but probably need one.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The problem is that autocracy runs too deep in Muscovite DNA. But what people often fail to appreciate is that Moscow subjugates and extracts from the rest of Russia just as it does to Ukraine, Belarus etc. I suspect regions close to Russia's European borders might rediscover their non-Moscow history. The Novgorod Republic was a constitutional, election-based state. The South has a history of Cossack freedom similar to Ukraine.
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    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    That's the point. Being independent allows you to be more nimble at playing to your own competitive advantages, which the Irish have done quite successfully.

    And they were able to fully play to the strength of the Laffer curve, cutting taxes in order to generate more revenues.

    Scotland, Wales and NI with their pretendy Parliaments and pretendy "governments" aren't as nimble.

    Its why independence [from the UK] has worked for Ireland, and why independence [from the EU] should work for the UK. Being independent allows and in some ways forces you to become more resilient and adapt to the world in a way that Holyrood just does not have to do.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,344
    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    That’s why Kate Forbes is an interesting candidate for the SNP leadership. Even if she has sabotaged her own bid, it does show that there’s room for a leadership which focuses more on wealth generation than redistribution.

    And realistically, even with control of N Sea oil assets, and excellent potential for building towards a surplus of renewable generation, and assuming an EU looking on independence favourably, the first years of independence would require some pretty hard headed economic decisions.

    Alanbrooke isn’t wrong setting out the barriers to independence (his earlier header was quite an eye opener), and it’s quite possible, even likely that the union muddles on for many decades to come. But it’s not certain, and those barriers aren’t insuperable.

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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    I'm surprised Zelenskyy hasn't had a go at trying to charm the Chinese. Maybe he has but we've not seen it or it's been rebuffed. Most of Ukraine's soft power effort has been focused on the Western donors and a couple of semi-neutral countries like Israel and Turkey.

    I think the trouble with the respecting sovereignty argument which people keep saying will work with China is that it's only ever used it for its own convenience when criticised about domestic policy. It has been perfectly happy to grab territory in the S China sea and on the Indian border and threaten most of its neighbours. Likewise the imperialism charge at Russia. China probably has common cause with Russia in being irritated by pesky little states on its doorstep like Vietnam and the Philippines who by rights should just accept their place as clients of China.
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    Hi ya @BartholomewRoberts hope you are keeping well, friend
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The problem is that autocracy runs too deep in Muscovite DNA. But what people often fail to appreciate is that Moscow subjugates and extracts from the rest of Russia just as it does to Ukraine, Belarus etc. I suspect regions close to Russia's European borders might rediscover their non-Moscow history. The Novgorod Republic was a constitutional, election-based state. The South has a history of Cossack freedom similar to Ukraine.
    REXIT?
  • Options
    WillG said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    I’ll argue the contrary, that, even if the question were put to the Scottish public, the issues around borders, debts, and currency, have made the case for independence more difficult.

    The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.

    Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
    It took Ireland about 60 years of poverty, post independence, for her left wing economic views to be dropped and embrace that thinking. I bet Scotland would be similar. Anyone arguing for a centre right policy would be slurred as a Tory.
    It takes as long as it takes, but the clock won't start on becoming self-reliant until they cut the apron strings.

    The alternative is 60 years of Holyrood blaming Westminster and the Tories for every ill in the world and never taking responsibility, and then not even starting the clock on finding their own way independent in that time.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Dura_Ace said:

    glw said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    I'm fairly sure the Russian people will get no say in the matter, and it will be a decision for the crooks in and around the Kremlin.
    There is even a word in Russian - договорняк - which means an agreement concocted by the government against the interests of Russia. We have no such word in English but probably need one.
    Australian FTA?
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    Hi ya @BartholomewRoberts hope you are keeping well, friend

    Thanks, been busy, hope you're coping well too.
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    Oh goody I see Putin is having another reality-free rant today.
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    Hi @Scott_xP how are you?
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    Foxy said:

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades.

    So a best-case scenario for Scotland or Wales is that ten years after independence, their economy looks like Ireland in the 1980s?

    Between 1979 and 1986 private consumption barely rose and unemployment increased from 6.8 per cent to 17.1 per cent, its highest level in the history of the state. Due to renewed net outward migration, which did not peak until 1989, population declined in the late 1980s—the first such set-back in a generation... Kennedy, Giblin, and McHugh judged the economy’s performance, when set in a broader European context, as ‘mediocre’, with per capita GDP growth less than every country in Europe except the UK; by the 1980s Ireland had become ‘one of the poorer countries in Europe’. Lee’s verdict went even further: ‘Irish economic performance has been the least impressive in western Europe, perhaps in all Europe, in the twentieth century’.

    as late as mid-1987 the EC’s annual economic review painted the following bleak picture of Irish prospects:
    'Only limited progress has been made in halting the accumulation of large Exchequer Deficits; the resulting high levels of taxation, crowding-out pressures and crushing debt interest bill (nearly half in respect to foreign debt) have created a difficult environment for investment and growth. Employment has only recently begun to stabilize after a prolonged fall. Unemployment has climbed to the unacceptably high average of 18.75 per cent, well above the Community average, but the figure would be much higher had not emigration moved to new high levels recently, thereby offsetting the strong underlying growth in the labour supply. '

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    That's the point. Being independent allows you to be more nimble at playing to your own competitive advantages, which the Irish have done quite successfully.

    And they were able to fully play to the strength of the Laffer curve, cutting taxes in order to generate more revenues.

    Scotland, Wales and NI with their pretendy Parliaments and pretendy "governments" aren't as nimble.

    Its why independence [from the UK] has worked for Ireland, and why independence [from the EU] should work for the UK. Being independent allows and in some ways forces you to become more resilient and adapt to the world in a way that Holyrood just does not have to do.
    Which is why it’s such a shame that the UK government isn’t taking advantage of their new powers of divergence, and is now likely to lose the next election and end up with a government keen to hand a load of them back to the EU.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    I'm surprised Zelenskyy hasn't had a go at trying to charm the Chinese. Maybe he has but we've not seen it or it's been rebuffed. Most of Ukraine's soft power effort has been focused on the Western donors and a couple of semi-neutral countries like Israel and Turkey.

    I think the trouble with the respecting sovereignty argument which people keep saying will work with China is that it's only ever used it for its own convenience when criticised about domestic policy. It has been perfectly happy to grab territory in the S China sea and on the Indian border and threaten most of its neighbours. Likewise the imperialism charge at Russia. China probably has common cause with Russia in being irritated by pesky little states on its doorstep like Vietnam and the Philippines who by rights should just accept their place as clients of China.
    Some people (including posters here) claim that China and Russia can't be imperialist since they aren't the dominant world power (aka the USA).

    So when they go all Sanders Of The River, it's not imperialism. It's just claiming their rights. Or something.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,653
    edited February 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    glw said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    I'm fairly sure the Russian people will get no say in the matter, and it will be a decision for the crooks in and around the Kremlin.
    There is even a word in Russian - договорняк - which means an agreement concocted by the government against the interests of Russia. We have no such word in English but probably need one.
    Brexit?
    edit: beaten to it by @Scott_xP
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613
    WillG said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    I’ll argue the contrary, that, even if the question were put to the Scottish public, the issues around borders, debts, and currency, have made the case for independence more difficult.

    The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.

    Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
    It took Ireland about 60 years of poverty, post independence, for her left wing economic views to be dropped and embrace that thinking. I bet Scotland would be similar. Anyone arguing for a centre right policy would be slurred as a Tory.
    Well this is the interesting question. We all seem to be agreed that a country doesn't need to take 100 years to go from poor to rich - about 20-40 will do. (A generation. Or three Scottish generations :wink:)

    But how quickly will those countries' polities allow them to make the necessary decisions? I'd say at least a generation.

    I have some sympathy with the separatists, and I certainly agree with @YBarddCwsc that the status quo isn't working. And the pre-devolution arrangements didn't work either. But It'll be a bumpy ride to get to the sunlit uplands, both economically and politically, and the outcome is by no means certain.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803
    Taz said:

    If your comment about not paying their way is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, what would happen with a newly independent Scotland or Wales and their pension and benefits liabilities ?

    How would these be covered from their budgets as separate nations ?


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Yes that;s true but there were 10,000 violent deaths, over a million emigrants and 75 years of economic stagnation before the place got on its feet. And while it is clearly good to see RoI leaving its old shackles behind the current economy is overdependent on other people's tax revenues.

    as for wealth Metah and Kildatre are Surrey and Berkshire, Leitrim or Donegal are more the benchmark.

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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329

    Hi @Scott_xP how are you?

    Just dandy.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Even though Labour are 25+ points ahead, this might not be the ringing endorsement some had hoped for.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628381593067786275

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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    There has been no economic policy worth a damn for the nations (or the regions) since the 1970s, and even then it didn’t work very well.

    Independence isn’t inevitable, but it is probably the default course unless the UK can get its shit together and create a model that delivers wider prosperity.

    It is relatively easy to imagine another Scottish referendum in the 2030s which is narrowly carried, but then sets off a domino in Northern Ireland and even Wales.
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    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    No, the changes in the prosperity of RoI didn't take 100 years, more like a quarter of that.

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
    You are absolutely correct that a poor nation becoming rich only takes 25 years with good policy. See also the East Asian tigers. Its why no-one should have any time for developing world nationalists still blaming colonialism 60 years later.

    But the "junking the mindset" is what takes time, if it happens at all. Those good economic policy decisions are hard and unpopular and easy to victimize. If you already have a strong mindset of blaming a former colonial bogeyman, its too easy for rabble rousers to use that narrative to oppose the reform. That definitely applies to Scotland.
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    dr_spyn said:

    Even though Labour are 25+ points ahead, this might not be the ringing endorsement some had hoped for.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628381593067786275

    Helping the country/people, Honesty/Trust, Fairness, Equality have grown a lot. Keir has done a great job since GE19
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    Taz said:

    If your comment about not paying their way is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, what would happen with a newly independent Scotland or Wales and their pension and benefits liabilities ?

    How would these be covered from their budgets as separate nations ?


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Yes that;s true but there were 10,000 violent deaths, over a million emigrants and 75 years of economic stagnation before the place got on its feet. And while it is clearly good to see RoI leaving its old shackles behind the current economy is overdependent on other people's tax revenues.

    as for wealth Metah and Kildatre are Surrey and Berkshire, Leitrim or Donegal are more the benchmark.

    So because it might be difficult, you shouldn't try?

    That's the same argument that the worst of the Remoaners used.

    Independence can stink, if you make bad choices, but it is ultimately the best option to enable you to take control to make the right choices. Its why England was right to leave the EU, and why Scotland would be right to leave the UK.

    But inertia will probably keep them in, just as it nearly kept Britain in the EU.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    edited February 2023
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    I'm surprised Zelenskyy hasn't had a go at trying to charm the Chinese. Maybe he has but we've not seen it or it's been rebuffed. Most of Ukraine's soft power effort has been focused on the Western donors and a couple of semi-neutral countries like Israel and Turkey.

    I think the trouble with the respecting sovereignty argument which people keep saying will work with China is that it's only ever used it for its own convenience when criticised about domestic policy. It has been perfectly happy to grab territory in the S China sea and on the Indian border and threaten most of its neighbours. Likewise the imperialism charge at Russia. China probably has common cause with Russia in being irritated by pesky little states on its doorstep like Vietnam and the Philippines who by rights should just accept their place as clients of China.
    Zelensky knows that the NATO countries are those who wil be sending military aid, and that other diplomacy can happen in the background with those allies. I’m sure the US would love an excuse to increase sanctions on China, as both Biden and Trump before him have realised that the massive offshoring of high-tech manufacturing leaves the US vulnerable and dependent on the Chinese.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,085
    edited February 2023
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    No, the changes in the prosperity of RoI didn't take 100 years, more like a quarter of that.

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
    They've done it through low corporate tax rates which are now under pressure and on which they've cornered the market, so it isn't clear it's easily replicable.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    I'm surprised Zelenskyy hasn't had a go at trying to charm the Chinese. Maybe he has but we've not seen it or it's been rebuffed. Most of Ukraine's soft power effort has been focused on the Western donors and a couple of semi-neutral countries like Israel and Turkey.

    I think the trouble with the respecting sovereignty argument which people keep saying will work with China is that it's only ever used it for its own convenience when criticised about domestic policy. It has been perfectly happy to grab territory in the S China sea and on the Indian border and threaten most of its neighbours. Likewise the imperialism charge at Russia. China probably has common cause with Russia in being irritated by pesky little states on its doorstep like Vietnam and the Philippines who by rights should just accept their place as clients of China.
    Zelensky knows that the NATO countries are those who wil be sending military aid, and that other diplomacy can happen in the background with those allies. I’m sure the US would love an excuse to increase sanctions on China, as both Biden and Trump before him have realised that the massive offshoring of high-tech manufacturing leaves the US vulnerable and dependent on the Chinese.
    Biden is massively tightening the screws on China.

    The reason that manufacturing is offshored to China is no longer cost. It is the stickiness due to all the supply chain being there. This is what Biden is going after.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291

    dr_spyn said:

    Even though Labour are 25+ points ahead, this might not be the ringing endorsement some had hoped for.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628381593067786275

    Helping the country/people, Honesty/Trust, Fairness, Equality have grown a lot. Keir has done a great job since GE19
    Perhaps Don't Know,Not Much Nothing must have been printed in the wrong colour.

    Keir Starmer has a lot to thank Jeremy Corbyn for being so voter repellent that Labour didn't have the misfortune to manage Covid. December 2019 was a good general election to have lost.
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    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Even though Labour are 25+ points ahead, this might not be the ringing endorsement some had hoped for.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628381593067786275

    Helping the country/people, Honesty/Trust, Fairness, Equality have grown a lot. Keir has done a great job since GE19
    Perhaps Don't Know,Not Much Nothing must have been printed in the wrong colour.

    Keir Starmer has a lot to thank Jeremy Corbyn for being so voter repellent that Labour didn't have the misfortune to manage Covid. December 2019 was a good general election to have lost.
    I agree
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    Hey @Gardenwalker hope you are well
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    No, the changes in the prosperity of RoI didn't take 100 years, more like a quarter of that.

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
    You are absolutely correct that a poor nation becoming rich only takes 25 years with good policy. See also the East Asian tigers. Its why no-one should have any time for developing world nationalists still blaming colonialism 60 years later.

    But the "junking the mindset" is what takes time, if it happens at all. Those good economic policy decisions are hard and unpopular and easy to victimize. If you already have a strong mindset of blaming a former colonial bogeyman, its too easy for rabble rousers to use that narrative to oppose the reform. That definitely applies to Scotland.
    25 years? It can be done in 15 years if you’ve got oil. Scotland’s got oil, right?

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    Hi @Sandpit how are you
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286

    Keir Starmer's response to the polls.


    Beer: model's own

    Lamb biryani: not shown

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    Cookie said:



    WillG said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    I’ll argue the contrary, that, even if the question were put to the Scottish public, the issues around borders, debts, and currency, have made the case for independence more difficult.

    The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.

    Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
    It took Ireland about 60 years of poverty, post independence, for her left wing economic views to be dropped and embrace that thinking. I bet Scotland would be similar. Anyone arguing for a centre right policy would be slurred as a Tory.
    Well this is the interesting question. We all seem to be agreed that a country doesn't need to take 100 years to go from poor to rich - about 20-40 will do. (A generation. Or three Scottish generations :wink:)

    But how quickly will those countries' polities allow them to make the necessary decisions? I'd say at least a generation.

    I have some sympathy with the separatists, and I certainly agree with @YBarddCwsc that the status quo isn't working. And the pre-devolution arrangements didn't work either. But It'll be a bumpy ride to get to the sunlit uplands, both economically and politically, and the outcome is by no means certain.
    I expect if Scotland becomes independent it will probably take 50-60 years for them to come up to English standards, yes. About 30 years to ditch the leftwing politics, then another 20 to see their politics work once they hit the right ones.

    But that's better than never.

    And over time its taking countries less time to adapt to independence, as collectively people learn from mistakes of prior nations achieving it. It took the Irish 75 years to adapt and catch up, but that's less than half time it took the Americans who had a very bloody Civil War in-between. Neither nation would look back now though and wish away their independence, and why should the Scots if they achieve it?
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    Hey @Gardenwalker hope you are well

    Hey @CorrectHorseBattery3, hope you are well too, friend!
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    Keir Starmer's response to the polls.


    Beer: model's own

    Lamb biryani: not shown

    :)

    Hope you're keeping well mate
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    edited February 2023
    FPT

    Cookie wrote: The potential weakness of this approach is that while those who want her back in the UK are in a minority, they are, I suspect, a pretty well-heeled minority.

    Anabobazina wrote:

    That minority includes that famous raging leftie Peter Hitchens.

    Let her in and let her stand trial.
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    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    dr_spyn said:

    Even though Labour are 25+ points ahead, this might not be the ringing endorsement some had hoped for.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628381593067786275

    The public are still in "everything is shit, blame the government" mode, probably a year away from moving into "choose a government" mode.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175

    Hi @Sandpit how are you

    I’m good Sir, just finished work for the day and sitting in the pub enjoying happy hour. How’s about you?
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    Sandpit said:

    Hi @Sandpit how are you

    I’m good Sir, just finished work for the day and sitting in the pub enjoying happy hour. How’s about you?
    Had a very busy week but finally having a relaxing lunch, considering a run this afternoon. What are you drinking?
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Don't Know stands out but accompanied by corruption, greed, and dishonesty = Tories.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628379076942602241

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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286

    Keir Starmer's response to the polls.


    Beer: model's own

    Lamb biryani: not shown

    :)

    Hope you're keeping well mate
    Yes, all well. Just enjoying daily lolz about the Continuity PB Tories going out to bat for Scottish homophobes and being medically obsessed with curries and trans.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Hey @Gardenwalker hope you are well

    Very well, thank-you.
    Just back after a long weekend in the Hudson Valley. It’s another bright, positive day in New York City.
  • Options
    dr_spyn said:

    Don't Know stands out but accompanied by corruption, greed, and dishonesty = Tories.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628379076942602241

    I think on balance Labour come out better. 'Don't know' is terrible for a government after 13 years.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,897
    edited February 2023

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    The reason is, in 2014 both sides assumed the UK and a potentially independent Scotland would both be in the EU. Now you have a choice of unions. The bad news for the United Kingdom is that the union with Europe is considerably more popular (three quarters) than the union with England (half). This is reflected in switchers. There are more No/Remain switchers to Yes than there are Yes/Leave switchers to No. While support for independence waxes and wanes it does so at a higher tide mark.

    The other thing is that the No margin in 2014 was heavily dependent on the 65+ group. That group is now 75+and dying out

    I’m never particularly convinced by demographic arguments. Peoples opinions don’t remain static, they evolve over time.

    Sentiment towards the EU may be more favourable in Scotland but the practicalities remain a concern. You would be erecting a border in GB which is a logistical and cultural nightmare.

    That’s not to say I don’t think Scotland would ever vote for independence. I think there’s got to be a decent chance in the next 50 years. But it’s far from an inevitability.
    I'm not saying independence is inevitable if it goes to vote. I am saying it's slightly more probable than it was before, for the reasons I gave, and it only needs to be slightly more probable.

    To @Leon's ill mannered claim below, the polls absolutely do bear me out. There is a majority for independence amongst working age Scots. There is also evidence of the switching behaviour I described.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    If it was only that they wouldn't be nearly half as successful.

    They've also created a strong education system that creates a skilled workforce. They've spent EU development money on critical national infrastructure. They've made the most out of what natural resources they have - mainly peat and grass for feeding cattle. They've put a huge long-term effort into attracting direct foreign investment - and yes, the low rate of corporation tax plays a factor here, but there's more to it than that, there's an awareness that they need foreign investment if they're going to be able to pay their way, and so they have to provide everything else that companies are looking for.

    There's a simplistic view on the right in Britain that you only need to cut taxes and business will turn up in droves. Workers, infrastructure, stability, market access are all other very important factors.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803

    Taz said:

    If your comment about not paying their way is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, what would happen with a newly independent Scotland or Wales and their pension and benefits liabilities ?

    How would these be covered from their budgets as separate nations ?


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Yes that;s true but there were 10,000 violent deaths, over a million emigrants and 75 years of economic stagnation before the place got on its feet. And while it is clearly good to see RoI leaving its old shackles behind the current economy is overdependent on other people's tax revenues.

    as for wealth Metah and Kildatre are Surrey and Berkshire, Leitrim or Donegal are more the benchmark.

    So because it might be difficult, you shouldn't try?

    That's the same argument that the worst of the Remoaners used.

    Independence can stink, if you make bad choices, but it is ultimately the best option to enable you to take control to make the right choices. Its why England was right to leave the EU, and why Scotland would be right to leave the UK.

    But inertia will probably keep them in, just as it nearly kept Britain in the EU.
    People can try if they wish., Personally I dont think a Civil and over a quarter of the population forced in to emigration was a price worth paying. But others no doubt see it differently.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175

    Sandpit said:

    Hi @Sandpit how are you

    I’m good Sir, just finished work for the day and sitting in the pub enjoying happy hour. How’s about you?
    Had a very busy week but finally having a relaxing lunch, considering a run this afternoon. What are you drinking?
    A pint of Heineken, a happy hour bargain at, err, about £8 looking at the exchange rate. It’ll be £12 in a couple of hours though, so better have a few cheap ones! I’ve just realised that my wife is going to be home before me, and will probably notice that I turn up in a taxi rather than my own car. Oh well! Cheers 🍻
  • Options


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    If it was only that they wouldn't be nearly half as successful.

    They've also created a strong education system that creates a skilled workforce. They've spent EU development money on critical national infrastructure. They've made the most out of what natural resources they have - mainly peat and grass for feeding cattle. They've put a huge long-term effort into attracting direct foreign investment - and yes, the low rate of corporation tax plays a factor here, but there's more to it than that, there's an awareness that they need foreign investment if they're going to be able to pay their way, and so they have to provide everything else that companies are looking for.

    There's a simplistic view on the right in Britain that you only need to cut taxes and business will turn up in droves. Workers, infrastructure, stability, market access are all other very important factors.
    Hope you are keeping well.

    The last 13 years has been an experiment in cut taxes and slash spending and society will be better off.

    It took a few years but this has clearly been a failure. We must find a new balance.
  • Options
    @Alanbrooke another excellent article, that explains much of why I'm a Unionist.

    Lots of life left in the old dog yet. The problem is Whitehall/Westminster centralisation.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700

    WillG said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FWIW I think it's likely Scotland would vote for independence. Brexit has made it slightly more likely to go Yes in the context where it was already 50/50.

    The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.

    I’ll argue the contrary, that, even if the question were put to the Scottish public, the issues around borders, debts, and currency, have made the case for independence more difficult.

    The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.

    Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
    It took Ireland about 60 years of poverty, post independence, for her left wing economic views to be dropped and embrace that thinking. I bet Scotland would be similar. Anyone arguing for a centre right policy would be slurred as a Tory.
    It takes as long as it takes, but the clock won't start on becoming self-reliant until they cut the apron strings.

    The alternative is 60 years of Holyrood blaming Westminster and the Tories for every ill in the world and never taking responsibility, and then not even starting the clock on finding their own way independent in that time.
    I prefer to believe that there's a way for Wales and Scotland to become more prosperous as part of Britain.
  • Options

    dr_spyn said:

    Don't Know stands out but accompanied by corruption, greed, and dishonesty = Tories.

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628379076942602241

    I think on balance Labour come out better. 'Don't know' is terrible for a government after 13 years.
    And the secondary words, although they're short on detail, are way more positive for the red team than the blue.

    Besides. There's got to be some turnaround for the Conservatives at some point... Hasn't there? But right now, the polls still seem to be opening out.

    23 months until the last possible election date, and falling...
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    glw said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    I'm fairly sure the Russian people will get no say in the matter, and it will be a decision for the crooks in and around the Kremlin.
    You could have said similar things about any democracy in the years before it became a democracy.

    Matters will only improve when the Russian people take them into their own hands.

    Might be a long wait, though. Maybe next century. As WillG argues, it might be that done if the people on the periphery will have to take those steps first (or perhaps second, after those in Eastern Europe).
  • Options
    WillGWillG Posts: 2,179
    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    No, the changes in the prosperity of RoI didn't take 100 years, more like a quarter of that.

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
    You are absolutely correct that a poor nation becoming rich only takes 25 years with good policy. See also the East Asian tigers. Its why no-one should have any time for developing world nationalists still blaming colonialism 60 years later.

    But the "junking the mindset" is what takes time, if it happens at all. Those good economic policy decisions are hard and unpopular and easy to victimize. If you already have a strong mindset of blaming a former colonial bogeyman, its too easy for rabble rousers to use that narrative to oppose the reform. That definitely applies to Scotland.
    25 years? It can be done in 15 years if you’ve got oil. Scotland’s got oil, right?

    I don't think the oil per person is anywhere near UAE levels in Scotland.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    TimS said:

    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    I'm surprised Zelenskyy hasn't had a go at trying to charm the Chinese. Maybe he has but we've not seen it or it's been rebuffed. Most of Ukraine's soft power effort has been focused on the Western donors and a couple of semi-neutral countries like Israel and Turkey.

    China and Ukraine had quite strong military links until recently. Ukraine helped greatly with the J-15, China’s AliExpress copy of the Flanker K for STOBAR carrier ops. Things became #itscomplicated when China wanted to buy a majority stake in the Zaporeezheeya aircraft engine plant in a deal that was not in the slightest bit corrupt. Trump told Ukraine to tell Chyna to fuck off and relations have been more sour than a fermented plum ever since. Trump had the ability to withhold US (and British and Canadian) military aid and training programs so Ukraine had no choice. They got effed in the A.

    China are probably quite happy with the trajectory of the SMO so far. It's cementing Russia into their sphere of influence while consuming vast amounts of American money, weapons and attention.
  • Options

    Taz said:

    If your comment about not paying their way is true, and I have no reason to doubt it, what would happen with a newly independent Scotland or Wales and their pension and benefits liabilities ?

    How would these be covered from their budgets as separate nations ?


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Yes that;s true but there were 10,000 violent deaths, over a million emigrants and 75 years of economic stagnation before the place got on its feet. And while it is clearly good to see RoI leaving its old shackles behind the current economy is overdependent on other people's tax revenues.

    as for wealth Metah and Kildatre are Surrey and Berkshire, Leitrim or Donegal are more the benchmark.

    So because it might be difficult, you shouldn't try?

    That's the same argument that the worst of the Remoaners used.

    Independence can stink, if you make bad choices, but it is ultimately the best option to enable you to take control to make the right choices. Its why England was right to leave the EU, and why Scotland would be right to leave the UK.

    But inertia will probably keep them in, just as it nearly kept Britain in the EU.
    People can try if they wish., Personally I dont think a Civil and over a quarter of the population forced in to emigration was a price worth paying. But others no doubt see it differently.
    Indeed, I do see it differently.

    If I wasn't English and had to choose between the Republic or Northern Ireland for my nationality, I'd 100% prefer the Republic over the North. Which probably wasn't the case a little over a century ago before the Republic became independent, but the Republic being independent faced the hard truths of reality and had to grow up. The politics in the North has been in a way mollycoddled and infantilised and the same is happening with Wales and Scotland now post-devolution too.

    Independence as a country is a lot like independence for a young adult. Yes its easier and more cost-effective to just keep living with mum and dad, and some people never leave the nest and some people boomerang back but overall most people find that regardless of how tough setting up your own household is, the benefits outweigh the inevitable financial costs.

    If Scotland, NI and Wales aspire to nothing better than sponging off England's handmedowns then they should stay in the UK.

    If they wish to move beyond the Kevin and Perry style politics of the SNP, Sinn Fein and the DUP - then they need to go independent and face the reality of the world.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,700
    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    If China arms Russia is that worse for the West then it is for China, or vice versa? I fear that we might lose more than they do, economically and then, when Chinese weaponry prevents a Russian defeat, we might also lose more in terms of lost morale.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194
    edited February 2023
    WillG said:

    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    No, the changes in the prosperity of RoI didn't take 100 years, more like a quarter of that.

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
    You are absolutely correct that a poor nation becoming rich only takes 25 years with good policy. See also the East Asian tigers. Its why no-one should have any time for developing world nationalists still blaming colonialism 60 years later.

    But the "junking the mindset" is what takes time, if it happens at all. Those good economic policy decisions are hard and unpopular and easy to victimize. If you already have a strong mindset of blaming a former colonial bogeyman, its too easy for rabble rousers to use that narrative to oppose the reform. That definitely applies to Scotland.
    25 years? It can be done in 15 years if you’ve got oil. Scotland’s got oil, right?

    I don't think the oil per person is anywhere near UAE levels in Scotland.
    ...
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    A better comparison for Scotland et al is various Eastern European countries, like Czechia or even Poland that now look to be wealthier than various British regions.

    I agree with the poster up-thread.
    It takes 25 years for a country to turn itself around properly.

    See also the UK’s purple patch in the 2000s, which was built on the previous 25 years.
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 947
    dr_spyn said:

    Keir Starmer has a lot to thank Jeremy Corbyn for being so voter repellent that Labour didn't have the misfortune to manage Covid. December 2019 was a good general election to have lost.

    I would disagree -- winning in 2019 gives you the opportunity to set the ground rules for our ongoing relationship with the EU, which is one of those "once done, much harder to roll back" chances to define a framework that successor governments may tweak and tinker with but are unlikely to massively rework. And the covid crisis managed well is an opportunity to show you're actually good at the job of government.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    edited February 2023
    WillG said:

    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:


    "It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"

    In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.

    Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.

    The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.

    Which they've done by massively cutting corporation tax rates.
    Sure ... but it shows why @Alanbrooke is wrong.
    I don't think Alanbrooke is wrong.
    What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
    But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
    No, the changes in the prosperity of RoI didn't take 100 years, more like a quarter of that.

    Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
    You are absolutely correct that a poor nation becoming rich only takes 25 years with good policy. See also the East Asian tigers. Its why no-one should have any time for developing world nationalists still blaming colonialism 60 years later.

    But the "junking the mindset" is what takes time, if it happens at all. Those good economic policy decisions are hard and unpopular and easy to victimize. If you already have a strong mindset of blaming a former colonial bogeyman, its too easy for rabble rousers to use that narrative to oppose the reform. That definitely applies to Scotland.
    25 years? It can be done in 15 years if you’ve got oil. Scotland’s got oil, right?

    I don't think the oil per person is anywhere near UAE levels in Scotland.
    Well, yes and no. Dubai didn’t actually have a lot of oil, most of the Black Gold is in Abu Dhabi.

    Dubai decided they’d invest their revenues in growing their own city, and it’s now the regional headquarters for almost every international company.

    Abu Dhabi invested their sovereign wealth fund in overseas investments like Manchester City, before belatedly realising that they need to enrich their own city - although they have done so quite spectacularly in recent years.

    This opens to the public next week - a mosque, church, and synagogue, all on the same site.
    https://www.ncregister.com/cna/catholic-leaders-open-new-church-in-uae-s-interfaith-abrahamic-family-house
  • Options

    @Alanbrooke another excellent article, that explains much of why I'm a Unionist.

    Lots of life left in the old dog yet. The problem is Whitehall/Westminster centralisation.

    How do you address that problem without independence though?

    Devolution was meant to end Whitehall/Westminster centralisation. Instead all that's happened is that you have a Holyrood that takes credit for anything decent and blames Whitehall/Westminster for all ills, no responsibility taken.

    One of the better arguments that swung me around for Brexit is that if we leave the EU, politicians will no longer be able to blame the EU for all ills and would have to take responsibility for their own choices instead. That same logic applies, but 100x bigger to Holyrood too.

    I find it amusing how many people looking across Brexit and Scotland are pro-independence for one, but against it for the other. Not that many people seem to be consistently pro-independence for both, or consistently against it for both.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,175
    edited February 2023

    Sandpit said:

    WillG said:

    I see the images out of Moscow today show the opening stages of what was predicted a while ago. Russia is becoming a junior partner of China. Far from making Russia strong again, Putin is returning the country to being a vassal of an Asian power.

    This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.

    This is the question then for the Russian people. Do they want to be a vassal state for a Chinese Empire, or would they prefer to have a place as a full part of Europe with all the freedoms that follow from democracy?
    The discussions between Russia and China are going to be really interesting to observe - so long as the Chinese don’t arm the Russians and we end up properly in WWIII. But the optimist in me says that Xi knows how that goes down with the rest of the Western world.

    I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
    If China arms Russia is that worse for the West then it is for China, or vice versa? I fear that we might lose more than they do, economically and then, when Chinese weaponry prevents a Russian defeat, we might also lose more in terms of lost morale.
    China needs to balance sending arms in exchange for massive loans to Russia, against the Western reaction to them sending arms to Russia. The background is also that they’re trying to avoid a confrontation with the West, in the South China Sea. Lots of moving parts, including the Western nations being deprived of next year’s iPhone.

    I’ve said many times before, that Xi’s military neutrality has been the key to this war. He’s faced many American sanctions in recent years, under two very different presidents, and must know that arming Putin’s thugs crosses a line.
  • Options
    Dura_Ace said:

    @Alanbrooke another excellent article, that explains much of why I'm a Unionist.

    Lots of life left in the old dog yet. The problem is Whitehall/Westminster centralisation.

    One of the better arguments that swung me around for Brexit is that if we leave the EU, politicians will no longer be able to blame the EU for all ills and would have to take responsibility for their own choices instead.

    That worked out just brilliantly.
    Yes it did.

    But I can see why a spiv like you that thinks Ukraine should be part of Russia wouldn't see the big picture.
  • Options
    DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    pm215 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Keir Starmer has a lot to thank Jeremy Corbyn for being so voter repellent that Labour didn't have the misfortune to manage Covid. December 2019 was a good general election to have lost.

    I would disagree -- winning in 2019 gives you the opportunity to set the ground rules for our ongoing relationship with the EU, which is one of those "once done, much harder to roll back" chances to define a framework that successor governments may tweak and tinker with but are unlikely to massively rework. And the covid crisis managed well is an opportunity to show you're actually good at the job of government.
    Which they would have missed, since they supported all the government's disastrous policies but wanted them more extreme and for longer...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited February 2023
    I have to say it's been amazing today to see purportedly liberal people twist themselves into a position where they blame the UK for not having enough surveillance by intelligence services to let Shamima Begum off the hook for her actions.
This discussion has been closed.