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There’s life in the old dog yet – politicalbetting.com
There’s life in the old dog yet – politicalbetting.com
One of the constants in politics – more so from the Left – is how activists insist on telling voters that various events are “inevitable”. Somehow I’ve missed the inevitable triumph of communism. the inevitable collapse of capitalism and the inevitable collapse of civilisation due to warming/overpopulation/no oil ( take your pick ) .
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You miss one thing: Brexit (which I supported and support) has been a fucking nightmare of tedium and hassle. And expense. Any break up of the ancient UK would be orders of magnitude worse, and this will stay the OUT voting hand of many, I suggest
And no secessionist can get away with airy claims of “oh it’ll be fine” as too many Leavers did. That trick has been played, it cannot be played again
This of course is history repeating itself. The Duchy of Moscow got its start as a vassal of the Mongols. Moscow's overlords were happy to have the state take its 30 pieces of silver in return for helping Mongolia exploit the other Eastern Slavs.
How would these be covered from their budgets as separate nations ?
"It’s the finances which prove the strongest cord. None of the Celtic nations pay their way"
In 1921, Ireland was poorer than the rest of the UK. Using you argument, it should not have broken away.
Now, go & visit County Kildare or Meath. Then cross the Irish Sea to Ceredigion or Meirionnydd. The difference is stark.
The former is way, way, way more prosperous than the latter. This was not so in 1921.
There are opportunities that Scotland and Wales are not taking because they are in the Union.
The tricky thing for nationalists is getting that choice in front of the population. The Union hangs on a procedure not happening.
Do British voters app… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628366493300797440
I am just pointing out we have an explicit counter-example.
RoI broke away a poor & backward country, and it is now more prosperous than Wales (& probably Scotland).
What ROI shows is that a poor nation can, over time, become a rich one. (It took ROI 100 years. But I'm not suggesting it would necessarily take Wales or Scotland that long: ROI made a lot of sub-optimal decisions along the way.)
But an independent Wales or Scotland would have to take a lot of very different decisions to those that they currently take to make that happen. Wales, in particular, seems mustard keen to drive any creation of wealth out of the principality as quickly as possible.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1628314786055290880?s=20
But, that it is an argument against the status quo.
(I agree RoI made some suboptimal decisions along the way, so I think 20 years is a more realistic timeframe).
The Scottish Nationalists should find a way to lobby the EU hard, for a digital border solution to the impasse over Northern Ireland. Because an independent Scotland wanting to join the EU, would otherwise need a very hard and physical border with England.
Talking of Ireland, Scotland’s best chance of prosperity as an independent nation would be to adopt the Irish model of being a big free zone.
The other thing is that the No margin in 2014 was heavily dependent on the 65+ group. That group is now 75+and dying out
I don’t disagree that it is run badly, but I understood that it had very very modestly closed the gap with regions like the NE.
Of course the gap with the SE and the rest of the world grows larger…
I’m thinking that the meeting today, is when Putin gets told that his failed state is going to be a 2030s Chinese farm.
Sentiment towards the EU may be more favourable in Scotland but the practicalities remain a concern. You would be erecting a border in GB which is a logistical and cultural nightmare.
That’s not to say I don’t think Scotland would ever vote for independence. I think there’s got to be a decent chance in the next 50 years. But it’s far from an inevitability.
Joining the EEC in 1973, and more or less junking the inward looking mindset of the De Valera years transformed RoI in a couple of decades. It isn't Craggy Island anymore.
They joined the EU at just the right time, when the Union was growing and prosperous, and comprised almost entirely of fairly rich countries willing to give Dublin loads of money, as an example of what the EU can do to poor countries, They made the Celtic Tiger
Ireland went deliberately for a super low corporate tax regime, arguably parasitic. Arguably immoral, even. But they got away with it for decades, because its a small country and people were forgiving
Ireland was a young country back then; Ireland speaks the international language of English
Ireland has freeloaded off the UK in terms of defence (and health to an extent) it was able to pump money into growth
Ireland was fairly empty (easy to develop), had no declining industries and towns to support, and had the goodwill of the world, after a really shit 300 years or so
No new country will be able to repeat all of this. Or even a small part of it
Good luck to the Irish, they deserved a break. It won’t happen again
You’re a bitter Remoaner idiot desperate for the UK to break up, it is tragic to witness
It's Brexit
And they were able to fully play to the strength of the Laffer curve, cutting taxes in order to generate more revenues.
Scotland, Wales and NI with their pretendy Parliaments and pretendy "governments" aren't as nimble.
Its why independence [from the UK] has worked for Ireland, and why independence [from the EU] should work for the UK. Being independent allows and in some ways forces you to become more resilient and adapt to the world in a way that Holyrood just does not have to do.
And realistically, even with control of N Sea oil assets, and excellent potential for building towards a surplus of renewable generation, and assuming an EU looking on independence favourably, the first years of independence would require some pretty hard headed economic decisions.
Alanbrooke isn’t wrong setting out the barriers to independence (his earlier header was quite an eye opener), and it’s quite possible, even likely that the union muddles on for many decades to come. But it’s not certain, and those barriers aren’t insuperable.
I think the trouble with the respecting sovereignty argument which people keep saying will work with China is that it's only ever used it for its own convenience when criticised about domestic policy. It has been perfectly happy to grab territory in the S China sea and on the Indian border and threaten most of its neighbours. Likewise the imperialism charge at Russia. China probably has common cause with Russia in being irritated by pesky little states on its doorstep like Vietnam and the Philippines who by rights should just accept their place as clients of China.
The alternative is 60 years of Holyrood blaming Westminster and the Tories for every ill in the world and never taking responsibility, and then not even starting the clock on finding their own way independent in that time.
Between 1979 and 1986 private consumption barely rose and unemployment increased from 6.8 per cent to 17.1 per cent, its highest level in the history of the state. Due to renewed net outward migration, which did not peak until 1989, population declined in the late 1980s—the first such set-back in a generation... Kennedy, Giblin, and McHugh judged the economy’s performance, when set in a broader European context, as ‘mediocre’, with per capita GDP growth less than every country in Europe except the UK; by the 1980s Ireland had become ‘one of the poorer countries in Europe’. Lee’s verdict went even further: ‘Irish economic performance has been the least impressive in western Europe, perhaps in all Europe, in the twentieth century’.
as late as mid-1987 the EC’s annual economic review painted the following bleak picture of Irish prospects:
'Only limited progress has been made in halting the accumulation of large Exchequer Deficits; the resulting high levels of taxation, crowding-out pressures and crushing debt interest bill (nearly half in respect to foreign debt) have created a difficult environment for investment and growth. Employment has only recently begun to stabilize after a prolonged fall. Unemployment has climbed to the unacceptably high average of 18.75 per cent, well above the Community average, but the figure would be much higher had not emigration moved to new high levels recently, thereby offsetting the strong underlying growth in the labour supply. '
So when they go all Sanders Of The River, it's not imperialism. It's just claiming their rights. Or something.
edit: beaten to it by @Scott_xP
But how quickly will those countries' polities allow them to make the necessary decisions? I'd say at least a generation.
I have some sympathy with the separatists, and I certainly agree with @YBarddCwsc that the status quo isn't working. And the pre-devolution arrangements didn't work either. But It'll be a bumpy ride to get to the sunlit uplands, both economically and politically, and the outcome is by no means certain.
as for wealth Metah and Kildatre are Surrey and Berkshire, Leitrim or Donegal are more the benchmark.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628381593067786275
Independence isn’t inevitable, but it is probably the default course unless the UK can get its shit together and create a model that delivers wider prosperity.
It is relatively easy to imagine another Scottish referendum in the 2030s which is narrowly carried, but then sets off a domino in Northern Ireland and even Wales.
But the "junking the mindset" is what takes time, if it happens at all. Those good economic policy decisions are hard and unpopular and easy to victimize. If you already have a strong mindset of blaming a former colonial bogeyman, its too easy for rabble rousers to use that narrative to oppose the reform. That definitely applies to Scotland.
That's the same argument that the worst of the Remoaners used.
Independence can stink, if you make bad choices, but it is ultimately the best option to enable you to take control to make the right choices. Its why England was right to leave the EU, and why Scotland would be right to leave the UK.
But inertia will probably keep them in, just as it nearly kept Britain in the EU.
The reason that manufacturing is offshored to China is no longer cost. It is the stickiness due to all the supply chain being there. This is what Biden is going after.
Keir Starmer has a lot to thank Jeremy Corbyn for being so voter repellent that Labour didn't have the misfortune to manage Covid. December 2019 was a good general election to have lost.
Very hard to shake that off
Lamb biryani: not shown
But that's better than never.
And over time its taking countries less time to adapt to independence, as collectively people learn from mistakes of prior nations achieving it. It took the Irish 75 years to adapt and catch up, but that's less than half time it took the Americans who had a very bloody Civil War in-between. Neither nation would look back now though and wish away their independence, and why should the Scots if they achieve it?
Hope you're keeping well mate
Cookie wrote: The potential weakness of this approach is that while those who want her back in the UK are in a minority, they are, I suspect, a pretty well-heeled minority.
Anabobazina wrote:
That minority includes that famous raging leftie Peter Hitchens.
Let her in and let her stand trial.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1628379076942602241
Just back after a long weekend in the Hudson Valley. It’s another bright, positive day in New York City.
To @Leon's ill mannered claim below, the polls absolutely do bear me out. There is a majority for independence amongst working age Scots. There is also evidence of the switching behaviour I described.
They've also created a strong education system that creates a skilled workforce. They've spent EU development money on critical national infrastructure. They've made the most out of what natural resources they have - mainly peat and grass for feeding cattle. They've put a huge long-term effort into attracting direct foreign investment - and yes, the low rate of corporation tax plays a factor here, but there's more to it than that, there's an awareness that they need foreign investment if they're going to be able to pay their way, and so they have to provide everything else that companies are looking for.
There's a simplistic view on the right in Britain that you only need to cut taxes and business will turn up in droves. Workers, infrastructure, stability, market access are all other very important factors.
The last 13 years has been an experiment in cut taxes and slash spending and society will be better off.
It took a few years but this has clearly been a failure. We must find a new balance.
Lots of life left in the old dog yet. The problem is Whitehall/Westminster centralisation.
Besides. There's got to be some turnaround for the Conservatives at some point... Hasn't there? But right now, the polls still seem to be opening out.
23 months until the last possible election date, and falling...
Matters will only improve when the Russian people take them into their own hands.
Might be a long wait, though. Maybe next century. As WillG argues, it might be that done if the people on the periphery will have to take those steps first (or perhaps second, after those in Eastern Europe).
China are probably quite happy with the trajectory of the SMO so far. It's cementing Russia into their sphere of influence while consuming vast amounts of American money, weapons and attention.
If I wasn't English and had to choose between the Republic or Northern Ireland for my nationality, I'd 100% prefer the Republic over the North. Which probably wasn't the case a little over a century ago before the Republic became independent, but the Republic being independent faced the hard truths of reality and had to grow up. The politics in the North has been in a way mollycoddled and infantilised and the same is happening with Wales and Scotland now post-devolution too.
Independence as a country is a lot like independence for a young adult. Yes its easier and more cost-effective to just keep living with mum and dad, and some people never leave the nest and some people boomerang back but overall most people find that regardless of how tough setting up your own household is, the benefits outweigh the inevitable financial costs.
If Scotland, NI and Wales aspire to nothing better than sponging off England's handmedowns then they should stay in the UK.
If they wish to move beyond the Kevin and Perry style politics of the SNP, Sinn Fein and the DUP - then they need to go independent and face the reality of the world.
I agree with the poster up-thread.
It takes 25 years for a country to turn itself around properly.
See also the UK’s purple patch in the 2000s, which was built on the previous 25 years.
Dubai decided they’d invest their revenues in growing their own city, and it’s now the regional headquarters for almost every international company.
Abu Dhabi invested their sovereign wealth fund in overseas investments like Manchester City, before belatedly realising that they need to enrich their own city - although they have done so quite spectacularly in recent years.
This opens to the public next week - a mosque, church, and synagogue, all on the same site.
https://www.ncregister.com/cna/catholic-leaders-open-new-church-in-uae-s-interfaith-abrahamic-family-house
Devolution was meant to end Whitehall/Westminster centralisation. Instead all that's happened is that you have a Holyrood that takes credit for anything decent and blames Whitehall/Westminster for all ills, no responsibility taken.
One of the better arguments that swung me around for Brexit is that if we leave the EU, politicians will no longer be able to blame the EU for all ills and would have to take responsibility for their own choices instead. That same logic applies, but 100x bigger to Holyrood too.
I find it amusing how many people looking across Brexit and Scotland are pro-independence for one, but against it for the other. Not that many people seem to be consistently pro-independence for both, or consistently against it for both.
I’ve said many times before, that Xi’s military neutrality has been the key to this war. He’s faced many American sanctions in recent years, under two very different presidents, and must know that arming Putin’s thugs crosses a line.
But I can see why a spiv like you that thinks Ukraine should be part of Russia wouldn't see the big picture.