One thing I'd say about websites: the first thing that gets dropped in the UI is accessibility. Over a couple of elections (2015/17, I think), I ranked each of the main party's websites by accessibility criteria. Annoyingly I cannot remember which one was best, but accessibility is massively important, and so often ignored.
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
Professor Schachtschneider, explained that the undisclosed paragraph means on ratification of the Lisbon Treaty the DEATH PENALTY will be reintroduced to Europe. The Death Penalty will be applicable for the crimes of RIOTING, CIVIL UPHEAVAL and DURING WAR. (When are we not at war and who will define riot and upheaval?)
Professor Schachtschneider made the point that this clause is particularly outrageous as it had been cleverly hidden in a footnote of a footnote and would not have been detected by anyone other than an exceptional expert
The EU not-a-Constitution reintroduces the death penalty and not only in times of war, but for riots or upheaval. That gives governments a pretty free hand to use the death penalty - strikes, protests, vote of no confidence in the ruling party.
Belarus is the only European nation with the death penalty still legally in force. Russia has de facto abolished it, though not de jure.
They just have a lot of unfortunate accidents involving windows and odd poisons.
I'm slow to catch-up on the West Lancashire by-election news but I'm not sure a 10.5% swing points at a Labour landslide, let alone a Tory wipeout. And turnout was woeful.
There were bigger swings against Labour in the 2005-2010 Parliament in a variety of by-elections, including Crewe & Nantwich, Norwich North, Sedgefield, and Glasgow East.
I think an awful lot turns on whether the Conservatives can rally their base.
Much more difficult to get a 10% swing when you already have over 50% of the vote, mind.
Take a look at, for instance, the Barking by-election 1994:
I spend quite a lot of time on my route each day playing with people's names
There are some on the route that I get on well enough to share my name jokes with
Mr Goodge didn't have a fighting style. He does now, and he loves it: Goodgitsu
Mrs Whalley's son's godfather had also put forward my second suggestion for his 'fun' name: Wes. Nobody had ever thought of my first; the Anglo-Saxon name Wodda. I'm told the Whalleys don't play family games of hide and seek and call it Where's Whalley..
Mr Cullis laughed when I asked if his penultimate initial stood for Port, then told me all about his ancestor the P name was from, and how that P had captained a ferry to the Isle of Wight that Queen Victoria had been a passenger on
I laughed when I gave Mr Kidney his climbing stones, and the obvious gag. He didn't look at all amused
There are some where I've not been brave enough
I so want to ask Mrs Puffet if she does a Keeping Up Appearances and insists her name rhymes with buffet. If she ever smiles at me I might
And I haven't yet told old Mr Layter that he should have called his daughter Susan Nora
I'm slow to catch-up on the West Lancashire by-election news but I'm not sure a 10.5% swing points at a Labour landslide, let alone a Tory wipeout. And turnout was woeful.
There were bigger swings against Labour in the 2005-2010 Parliament in a variety of by-elections, including Crewe & Nantwich, Norwich North, Sedgefield, and Glasgow East.
I think an awful lot turns on whether the Conservatives can rally their base.
Much more difficult to get a 10% swing when you already have over 50% of the vote, mind.
Take a look at, for instance, the Barking by-election 1994:
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Professor Schachtschneider, explained that the undisclosed paragraph means on ratification of the Lisbon Treaty the DEATH PENALTY will be reintroduced to Europe. The Death Penalty will be applicable for the crimes of RIOTING, CIVIL UPHEAVAL and DURING WAR. (When are we not at war and who will define riot and upheaval?)
Professor Schachtschneider made the point that this clause is particularly outrageous as it had been cleverly hidden in a footnote of a footnote and would not have been detected by anyone other than an exceptional expert
The EU not-a-Constitution reintroduces the death penalty and not only in times of war, but for riots or upheaval. That gives governments a pretty free hand to use the death penalty - strikes, protests, vote of no confidence in the ruling party.
Belarus is the only European nation with the death penalty still legally in force. Russia has de facto abolished it, though not de jure.
They just have a lot of unfortunate accidents involving windows and odd poisons.
Professor Schachtschneider, explained that the undisclosed paragraph means on ratification of the Lisbon Treaty the DEATH PENALTY will be reintroduced to Europe. The Death Penalty will be applicable for the crimes of RIOTING, CIVIL UPHEAVAL and DURING WAR. (When are we not at war and who will define riot and upheaval?)
Professor Schachtschneider made the point that this clause is particularly outrageous as it had been cleverly hidden in a footnote of a footnote and would not have been detected by anyone other than an exceptional expert
The EU not-a-Constitution reintroduces the death penalty and not only in times of war, but for riots or upheaval. That gives governments a pretty free hand to use the death penalty - strikes, protests, vote of no confidence in the ruling party.
Belarus is the only European nation with the death penalty still legally in force. Russia has de facto abolished it, though not de jure.
They just have a lot of unfortunate accidents involving windows and odd poisons.
I'm slow to catch-up on the West Lancashire by-election news but I'm not sure a 10.5% swing points at a Labour landslide, let alone a Tory wipeout. And turnout was woeful.
There were bigger swings against Labour in the 2005-2010 Parliament in a variety of by-elections, including Crewe & Nantwich, Norwich North, Sedgefield, and Glasgow East.
I think an awful lot turns on whether the Conservatives can rally their base.
Much more difficult to get a 10% swing when you already have over 50% of the vote, mind.
Take a look at, for instance, the Barking by-election 1994:
This is the point I made earlier, that some seem quite keen to dismiss or ignore.
To be quite honest, I didn't even know about it, even on last night's thread! I saw it mentioned, yet thought it was just a local by-election for local people
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It might be a stretch, and it’s down to the seemingly baffling aspects (if she fell in and drowned, she ought to have been found by now). But it reminds me a bit of other events.
Why are the Police so certain she "fell" into the river? She fell so suddenly that her mobile was found on a bench?
There was a death elsewhere where the lady fell into a stream in spate when trying to retrieve her dog, which had fallen in. Presumably the hound in this case was found dry?
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite we we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
Labours lead may be soft or it may not be. I think a lot of it is down to the electorate turning against the Tories in quite spectacular fashion. That seems unlikely to reverse, and is showing no signs of it yet, even with a less toxic PM. I don’t think Labour or Starmer have really built a groundswell behind them yet. Starmer seems a decent chap, and I think he is the antithesis of Johnson, but he’s not up against Johnson (yet). I’m not convinced of the depth of talent on the Labour side. Possibly they will grow into cabinet roles, but I think a lot of people are projecting right now. Personally would say Labour most seats is nailed on, a majority highly likely, even though the hill too climb is pretty high. But nothing is certain, even now. Us weirdos on PB obsess about politics, but the man on the Clapham omnibus usually isn’t that engaged. He takes notice when the GE rolls round.
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It might be a stretch, and it’s down to the seemingly baffling aspects (if she fell in and drowned, she ought to have been found by now). But it reminds me a bit of other events.
Why are the Police so certain she "fell" into the river? She fell so suddenly that her mobile was found on a bench?
There was a death elsewhere where the lady fell into a stream in spate when trying to retrieve her dog, which had fallen in. Presumably the hound in this case was found dry?
This weeks polling average based on published polls from YouGov, Omnisis, Techne, Deltapoll, PeoplePolling and Redfield & Wilton.
Small dip by the conservatives; let's see what next week brings - half term holidays for some.
Baxtered on new boundaries.
Lab 474 Con 88 SNP 47 LD 18.
Labour majority of 298.
Those are quite ginormous figures which we have become somewhat inured to.
But, they are also hokum. You are Baxtering mid-term polls outside of a GE campaign.
There are a lot of people who will put a clothes peg on their noses and vote Tory to hobble an overwhelming Labour victory, if that's what looks likely to happen.
That could be true, but you present it as though a solid rule.
Yes, this is midterm, but it is pretty bad even though it is midterm. It's also midterm 13 years in.
And I question the assumption that people will likely hold their noses to hobble an overwhelming victory - some people think that is what happened in 2017, but it certainly didn't happen in 2019 even though the polls at least were clear it would be a big win. So it definitely doesn't always happen.
I don't.
I'm providing an alternative view on here, which is being heavily challenged because it goes against the consensus and people fear there's something in it.
There's more evidence for my view from past elections than there is for the idea that the whole centre-right coalition will simply give up, disappear and acquiesce in a Labour landslide.
I'd be more inclined to accept you were merely providing an alternative view had you not included a whingy bit of nonsense peering into people's souls about how they 'fear' it and that's why people challenge it, rather than, you know, people might simply disagree with you.
You're better than that lame political shit. I don't even know why you included it, as it undermines your point massively by presenting yourself as some kind of martyr.
For the record I'm not predicting a Labour landslide, but a modest Labour win, so provably wrong on why you think people might disagree. Nor did I even disagree entirely, since I said it 'could be true'. I think the reasons are true to an extent, but won't be enough, which is why I don't think it will be a landslide.
But sure, it's just a case of people being in fear reacting against you.
I'm slow to catch-up on the West Lancashire by-election news but I'm not sure a 10.5% swing points at a Labour landslide, let alone a Tory wipeout. And turnout was woeful.
There were bigger swings against Labour in the 2005-2010 Parliament in a variety of by-elections, including Crewe & Nantwich, Norwich North, Sedgefield, and Glasgow East.
I think an awful lot turns on whether the Conservatives can rally their base.
Much more difficult to get a 10% swing when you already have over 50% of the vote, mind.
Take a look at, for instance, the Barking by-election 1994:
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
OK. It's not coming back.
The death penalty was last seriously on the agenda in the free votes in Parliament just after the 1983 GE when CON had a 144 maj. There were six votes on various options in relation to what types of offences it should be applied to. I vaguely recall that the closest result was a defeat by around 30 votes.
Then I believe there were more free votes in 1988, the CON majority was less then and it was easily defeated.
I don't think there have been any votes since then. It's not coming back. No more votes in Parliament about it, no referendum. OK?
There will probably be some long hard looks at building regulations after the disaster in Turkey.
Corruption kills.
The regulations are probably fine, but enforcement is a different matter.
Wasn’t the rule of the PRI, in Mexico, badly dented by revaluations of corruption with respect to building regulations? After a massive earthquake where lots of buildings that should have survived, pancaked….
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
OK. It's not coming back.
The death penalty was last seriously on the agenda in the free votes in Parliament just after the 1983 GE when CON had a 144 maj. There were six votes on various options in relation to what types of offences it should be applied to. I vaguely recall that the closest result was a defeat by around 30 votes.
Then I believe there were more free votes in 1988, the CON majority was less then and it was easily defeated.
I don't think there have been any votes since then. It's not coming back. No more votes in Parliament about it, no referendum. OK?
On capital punishment for all murderers, no.
Capital punishment for serial killers? A Commons with a big Conservative majority could vote for that
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It's a long running cliche across so many tv shows and movies that attractive white women make for better news stories in these matters than the alternative. Reluctant as I am to simply believe media cliches, when there's so many tragic events that could get coverage that don't I find it hard to believe it has nothing to do with it sometimes.
He may well be innocent.. but skulduggery is not limited to the Tories.. there was that Labour Mp just done for huge fraud to support his drug habit...
Missing the point of the TV show - Hyacinth was working class pretending to be "posh".
Now that actually does seem unusual - I thought the general rule was that it was only middle class people who have anxiety over being 'proper' and acting posh. That the working class aren't self conscious about not being posh and the upper class don't have to care about it because, well, they're upper class.
Missing the point of the TV show - Hyacinth was working class pretending to be "posh".
Now that actually does seem unusual - I thought the general rule was that it was only middle class people who have anxiety over being 'proper' and acting posh. That the working class aren't self conscious about not being posh and the upper class don't have to care about it because, well, they're upper class.
I think it’s a misreading of the show. Hyacinth may have had working class roots but was definitely now middle class, and apeing what she thought upper class people did.
If Rishi believes in the death penalty - I am staggered that his so-called religion would allow him to but what do I know? - then he should come out and say so.
These are the last throws of a dying Government.
But these are not empty words, we are talking about people here. People that will have their lives taken if it meant a few points in the polls.
This country needs a reset and fast. We're heading one way right now and it is not the compassionate country that the UK is or should be.
The Tories must get out of Government.
The death penalty is rather divisive. Simplistically I see two reasons not to have it (or possibly three). Firstly some believe the state should not have to take lives, period. Secondly there are those who have less of an issue with that, but still oppose because there is too much chance of a terminal miscarriage of justice. Lastly there is the argument that it doesn’t actually act as a deterrent.
I am not in favour of restoring the death penalty, but events such as the murders of Lee Rigby and Sarah Everard test peoples beliefs to the limit. Why should such murderers have live, when their victims do not.
Why do you think you know better than the Parole Board? Your problem is you think you are an expert in everything.
Because parole boards have a habit of releasing people saying they are no longer a threat who then go on to repeat their crimes? Seems a good reason not to trust parole boards
It's such an awful to have I don't know why anyone would do it. There's bound to be cases that go wrong, and as far as the public is concerned when things enter their consciousness they probably don't think anyone should be released, certainly not early.
I almost fell out of my chair in surprise when watching a TV show a few months ago where a main character who had a relative killed actually supported the request for parole from the perpetrator, after something like 15 years inside. Usually shows take such a stance that the person should not be paroled for the evil thing they did that they implicitly support life without parole for any violent crime.
I'm slow to catch-up on the West Lancashire by-election news but I'm not sure a 10.5% swing points at a Labour landslide, let alone a Tory wipeout. And turnout was woeful.
There were bigger swings against Labour in the 2005-2010 Parliament in a variety of by-elections, including Crewe & Nantwich, Norwich North, Sedgefield, and Glasgow East.
I think an awful lot turns on whether the Conservatives can rally their base.
Much more difficult to get a 10% swing when you already have over 50% of the vote, mind.
Take a look at, for instance, the Barking by-election 1994:
This is the point I made earlier, that some seem quite keen to dismiss or ignore.
I genuinely believe you have a decent shot at a majority of circa 20 on the new boundaries. However the evidence you are citing is weak to say the least. Straw clutching springs to mind.
You are going to lose on the economy, but you might win on a Johnsonian return, Ukraine winning the war with Johnson back seat driving and a raft of Andersonian populism. I doubt the Labour Party is taking things for granted either.
Professor Schachtschneider, explained that the undisclosed paragraph means on ratification of the Lisbon Treaty the DEATH PENALTY will be reintroduced to Europe. The Death Penalty will be applicable for the crimes of RIOTING, CIVIL UPHEAVAL and DURING WAR. (When are we not at war and who will define riot and upheaval?)
Professor Schachtschneider made the point that this clause is particularly outrageous as it had been cleverly hidden in a footnote of a footnote and would not have been detected by anyone other than an exceptional expert
The EU not-a-Constitution reintroduces the death penalty and not only in times of war, but for riots or upheaval. That gives governments a pretty free hand to use the death penalty - strikes, protests, vote of no confidence in the ruling party.
Belarus is the only European nation with the death penalty still legally in force. Russia has de facto abolished it, though not de jure.
You mean russia has abolished it as long as you dont stand too near windows
No EU member still has the death penalty. Latvia was the last to abolish it for wartime, in 2012.
The eu is quite happy for people to reintroduce it.
You should be overjoyed that the Treaty returned powers to nation states.
Clearly this German professor is talking out of his arse. But I'm curious - did the Lisbon treaty actually return such powers? Was there a previous EU treaty banned members from having the death penalty under any circumstances? Seems unlikely.
Pretty depressing discussion on the death penalty, reminiscent of a school debating society. Fortunately, there's no chance of it being brought back during my lifetime, at least. But the fact that it's even deemed worthy of debate adds fuel to the regressive fire we've been playing with for some years now.
Pretty soon, I expect Lee Anderson to pop up and say "my teachers used to beat me to within an inch of my life, and it never did me any harm".
And HYUFD will write "actually, YouGov found that 58% of voters want the cane brought back for when kids are really, really naughty".
I quite upset a relative of mine who told me about getting caned or slippered at school, by opining that anyone who performed such an act in that setting was probably a pervert or just an utter creep who got some sick thrill out of doing it.
It's one of those topics I don't equivocate on - almost all teachers can control kids without hitting them, so it is not necessary for any of them. (That is not the same as permitting schools to handle children who are engaged in violent acts, for the safety of others).
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It might be a stretch, and it’s down to the seemingly baffling aspects (if she fell in and drowned, she ought to have been found by now). But it reminds me a bit of other events.
Why are the Police so certain she "fell" into the river? She fell so suddenly that her mobile was found on a bench?
There was a death elsewhere where the lady fell into a stream in spate when trying to retrieve her dog, which had fallen in. Presumably the hound in this case was found dry?
My wife is pretty certain she was murdered by someone (a man) she knew, who took her from the bench and then drove her away to commit the murder.
I am sitting hoping it’s not the case. I know being a man myself doesn’t make me automatically guilty by association. But it sort of does.
This story had completely passed me until a couple of days ago.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
OK. It's not coming back.
The death penalty was last seriously on the agenda in the free votes in Parliament just after the 1983 GE when CON had a 144 maj. There were six votes on various options in relation to what types of offences it should be applied to. I vaguely recall that the closest result was a defeat by around 30 votes.
Then I believe there were more free votes in 1988, the CON majority was less then and it was easily defeated.
I don't think there have been any votes since then. It's not coming back. No more votes in Parliament about it, no referendum. OK?
HYUFD suggests otherwise and he has his finger on the pulse of modern no holds barred Conservatism.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It might be a stretch, and it’s down to the seemingly baffling aspects (if she fell in and drowned, she ought to have been found by now). But it reminds me a bit of other events.
Why are the Police so certain she "fell" into the river? She fell so suddenly that her mobile was found on a bench?
There was a death elsewhere where the lady fell into a stream in spate when trying to retrieve her dog, which had fallen in. Presumably the hound in this case was found dry?
My wife is pretty certain she was murdered by someone (a man) she knew, who took her from the bench and then drove her away to commit the murder.
I am sitting hoping it’s not the case. I know being a man myself doesn’t make me automatically guilty by association. But it sort of does.
This story had completely passed me until a couple of days ago.
Seems unlikely. How was she compelled to go (if compelled?) If voluntary why leave the phone (and dog)? I think the drowning theory is probably correct, but it’s odd they haven’t found her yet.
Am just a few days back home, from my first - though hopefully NOT last - visit to the great State of Hawai'i. To be precise, to the City of Honolulu and Island of O'ahu.
One person I met, told me about "Jubilee
QUEEN'S JUBILEE by Queen Liliʻuokalani
All hail to you, Great Queen of England Fair Queen who rules over land and sea From northern seas to southern shores Your way is known both far and near We come to your shores, gracious lady On this great day of your Jubilee To bring kind greetings from afar May heaven bless you, long may you reign
All hail, all hail, Empress of India In this your year of Jubilee Now kings, queens and princes great Have all assembled here today To pay due homage and reverent love Hawaii joins with loyal fervor May Heaven smile on you God bless the Queen, long may she live
KA IUBILE O KA MOIWAHINE
Mahalo piha, Mōʻī ʻo ʻEnelani Kuʻi kou kaulana nā ʻāina pau Na kai ākau nā one hema ʻIkea kou ʻihi mana nui Eia mākou i kou kapa kai I kou lā nui Iubilī I hiʻi mai i kou mākou aloha Maluna ou ka malu o ka Lani
Hauʻoliʻoli ʻEmepela o ʻInia I kēia makahiki Iubili ʻĀkoakoa nā aliʻi ʻaimoku A puni ke ao holoʻokoʻa E hi`ilani e mililani Ua hui pūʻia me Hawaiʻi E uhi mai ka lani i kona nani E ola ka Mōʻī ke Akua
Written by a Queen in honor of a Queen - a royal poem indeed!
And not just a poem, but a song. And not just a song, but a dance. The whole being loved and cherished to this day by the people of Hawai'i.
Sometimes I fantasise about applying to the Conservative parliamentary list.
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
The time to join is at the nadir. Blair got first elected in 1983.
Maybe one election after the nadir - somewhat harder to get selected, but Blair had to wait 14 years for his shot at the big time. Not unusual at all, historically, but people do like to move faster thesedays in politics, if you aren't talked about after 5 years you might be out of the running.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
It’s a sort of socio-political apartheid that seems much more dominant in the Eastern half of the country than the West. Political tribes living in closed communities. London, Essex, Kent, East Anglia, Yorkshire, the North East. Lots of examples of ultra Labour strongholds across the tracks from ultra Tory strongholds.
The West Country and Wales (outside the valleys) seem different. The party support there is more traditional, less partisan. Strongly Brexit voting parts of the West Country for example voting Lib Dem in those by-elections, and no Bristol or Exeter equivalents of the Brockley-Dartford divide. Or maybe I’m being unscientific and romanticising the West.
It’s certainly the case in France. Brittany, Normandy, the Loire, Aquitaine, Limousin: all much less divided on the voting map than the corridor from Calais to Marseille.
Sometimes I fantasise about applying to the Conservative parliamentary list.
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
The time to join is at the nadir. Blair got first elected in 1983.
Yes, Cameron and Boris got elected first in 2001 too. May was first elected in 1997. Starmer was first elected in 2015.
Hague and IDS by contrast got elected in 1989 and 1992 respectively, Howard in 1983 and Rishi in 2015.
Ed Miliband was elected first in 2005.
If you want to become a PM who wins a general election it helps to be first elected when your party loses nationally, as you will benefit from the swing back when you eventually reach the top of your party
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It might be a stretch, and it’s down to the seemingly baffling aspects (if she fell in and drowned, she ought to have been found by now). But it reminds me a bit of other events.
Why are the Police so certain she "fell" into the river? She fell so suddenly that her mobile was found on a bench?
There was a death elsewhere where the lady fell into a stream in spate when trying to retrieve her dog, which had fallen in. Presumably the hound in this case was found dry?
A friend of my in laws died just that way some years ago. The body turned up a few days later in the river but a long way downstream.
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It might be a stretch, and it’s down to the seemingly baffling aspects (if she fell in and drowned, she ought to have been found by now). But it reminds me a bit of other events.
Why are the Police so certain she "fell" into the river? She fell so suddenly that her mobile was found on a bench?
There was a death elsewhere where the lady fell into a stream in spate when trying to retrieve her dog, which had fallen in. Presumably the hound in this case was found dry?
My wife is pretty certain she was murdered by someone (a man) she knew, who took her from the bench and then drove her away to commit the murder.
I am sitting hoping it’s not the case. I know being a man myself doesn’t make me automatically guilty by association. But it sort of does.
This story had completely passed me until a couple of days ago.
Seems unlikely. How was she compelled to go (if compelled?) If voluntary why leave the phone (and dog)? I think the drowning theory is probably correct, but it’s odd they haven’t found her yet.
That’s what I started to venture. But it made me sound like an apologist for male violence so I shut up.
Let's not forget the other Labour leader elected at their previous nadir, who helpfully established a new nadir for the leaders of tomorrow to be elected at.
Sometimes I fantasise about applying to the Conservative parliamentary list.
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
I did notice. Whilst researching by elections for our little to and fro earlier, that the Bromley and Chislehurst Labour candidate in 2005 and the by election in 2006 (coming fourth), was none other than Rachel Reeves. At least there'd be a coherent paragraph out of you, and some semblance of nuance of argument. You could end up Shadow Chancellor in 17 years time. The Tory Party could do a lot worse.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Sometimes I fantasise about applying to the Conservative parliamentary list.
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
The time to join is at the nadir. Blair got first elected in 1983.
Yes, but the problem is you lot know all my weaknesses and foibles - and it's basically public record on here.
I've shat my own bed.
You have the perfect profile for today's Conservative Party. You would fit in nicely with Boris, Dom, 30p, Sue Ellen and Priti, not to mention the ERG. Good luck.
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
OK. It's not coming back.
The death penalty was last seriously on the agenda in the free votes in Parliament just after the 1983 GE when CON had a 144 maj. There were six votes on various options in relation to what types of offences it should be applied to. I vaguely recall that the closest result was a defeat by around 30 votes.
Then I believe there were more free votes in 1988, the CON majority was less then and it was easily defeated.
I don't think there have been any votes since then. It's not coming back. No more votes in Parliament about it, no referendum. OK?
On capital punishment for all murderers, no.
Capital punishment for serial killers? A Commons with a big Conservative majority could vote for that
I would certainly think bring back the death penalty would be popular if it was applied to offended of "corruption in public office"
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is. What's more. The last Council Elections, the very worst Tory results were in very rural areas. Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Somerset. The late, lamented Ishmael made this point repeatedly. I paid him not much mind till those results.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
It isn't 'drifting strongly leftwards'.
If it was Labour would already hold it, or it would be at least in the top 50-100 Labour target seats. Even in 1997 the Tories won Hexham by just 222 votes.
You may as well have said Cameron winning Ealing Acton and Bristol North West and slashing the Labour majority to just 42 in Hampstead and Kilburn in 2010 meant they were moving 'strongly rightwards'. Rather than just reflecting the national swing and still being more Labour than average in an average year
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is.
HYUFD is not quite right. It is seats far from big cities which are becoming more Tory.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is. What's more. The last Council Elections, the very worst Tory results were in very rural areas. Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Somerset. The late, lamented Ishmael made this point repeatedly. I paid him not much mind till those results.
Blyth Valley is an ultra marginal swing seat, not safe Tory like most rural seats.
North Yorkshire has a Tory controlled council still.
Towns in Somerset like Taunton, Yeovil, Weston Super Mare, Bridgwater etc where the LDs made most of their gains are also not rural villages or farms, they are towns.
Same for towns in Cumbria like Carlisle, Barrow, Kendal and Workington which aren't rural either
Sometimes I fantasise about applying to the Conservative parliamentary list.
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
The time to join is at the nadir. Blair got first elected in 1983.
Yes, but the problem is you lot know all my weaknesses and foibles - and it's basically public record on here.
I've shat my own bed.
Presumably you wouldn’t be standing as “Casino Royale”.
It wouldn't be hard to work it out.
Several pb regulars know who I am.
I've had a few spats with you Casino but I can't think there's anything you've ever posted on here that would be fatal to your chances.
I'd say, go for it - you'd be a lot better than most of the the current mob.
Aaron Bell posted for years on here before standing for Parliament. He was mildly concerned about blowback and changed his site name to Tissue Price, but in the event he wasn't hampered by his connection with PB.
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
OK. It's not coming back.
The death penalty was last seriously on the agenda in the free votes in Parliament just after the 1983 GE when CON had a 144 maj. There were six votes on various options in relation to what types of offences it should be applied to. I vaguely recall that the closest result was a defeat by around 30 votes.
Then I believe there were more free votes in 1988, the CON majority was less then and it was easily defeated.
I don't think there have been any votes since then. It's not coming back. No more votes in Parliament about it, no referendum. OK?
HYUFD suggests otherwise and he has his finger on the pulse of modern no holds barred Conservatism.
I hope you are right.
Isn't it more likely that Anderson's intervention distracted the liberal media's attention from its pursuit of Raab.
The political equivalent of a military aircraft spewing chaff to draw away missiles?
It has the side effect of bringing another policy debate back onto the table, depending upon how it lands in the focus groups.
And it's likely to be a central tenet of Starmer's political beliefs. So he may overreact - the equivalent of HYUFD's response to a Catholic ascending to the throne.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is. What's more. The last Council Elections, the very worst Tory results were in very rural areas. Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Somerset. The late, lamented Ishmael made this point repeatedly. I paid him not much mind till those results.
Blyth Valley is an ultra marginal swing seat, not safe Tory like most rural seats.
North Yorkshire has a Tory controlled council still.
Towns in Somerset like Taunton, Yeovil, Weston Super Mare, Bridgwater etc where the LDs made most of their gains are also not rural villages or farms, they are towns
Pretty depressing discussion on the death penalty, reminiscent of a school debating society. Fortunately, there's no chance of it being brought back during my lifetime, at least. But the fact that it's even deemed worthy of debate adds fuel to the regressive fire we've been playing with for some years now.
Pretty soon, I expect Lee Anderson to pop up and say "my teachers used to beat me to within an inch of my life, and it never did me any harm".
And HYUFD will write "actually, YouGov found that 58% of voters want the cane brought back for when kids are really, really naughty".
I quite upset a relative of mine who told me about getting caned or slippered at school, by opining that anyone who performed such an act in that setting was probably a pervert or just an utter creep who got some sick thrill out of doing it.
It's one of those topics I don't equivocate on - almost all teachers can control kids without hitting them, so it is not necessary for any of them. (That is not the same as permitting schools to handle children who are engaged in violent acts, for the safety of others).
And other folk get a thrill out of thinking about it. That's why I am so wary, even suspicious, of people who advocate corporal or capital punishment.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is. What's more. The last Council Elections, the very worst Tory results were in very rural areas. Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Somerset. The late, lamented Ishmael made this point repeatedly. I paid him not much mind till those results.
Blyth Valley is an ultra marginal swing seat, not safe Tory like most rural seats.
North Yorkshire has a Tory controlled council still.
Towns in Somerset like Taunton, Yeovil, Weston Super Mare, Bridgwater etc where the LDs made most of their gains are also not rural villages or farms, they are towns
Blyth Valley isn't rural at all.
Precisely, it is a suburban swing seat not rural safe Tory
If Rishi believes in the death penalty - I am staggered that his so-called religion would allow him to but what do I know? - then he should come out and say so.
These are the last throws of a dying Government.
But these are not empty words, we are talking about people here. People that will have their lives taken if it meant a few points in the polls.
This country needs a reset and fast. We're heading one way right now and it is not the compassionate country that the UK is or should be.
The Tories must get out of Government.
The death penalty is rather divisive. Simplistically I see two reasons not to have it (or possibly three). Firstly some believe the state should not have to take lives, period. Secondly there are those who have less of an issue with that, but still oppose because there is too much chance of a terminal miscarriage of justice. Lastly there is the argument that it doesn’t actually act as a deterrent.
I am not in favour of restoring the death penalty, but events such as the murders of Lee Rigby and Sarah Everard test peoples beliefs to the limit. Why should such murderers have live, when their victims do not.
Why do you think you know better than the Parole Board? Your problem is you think you are an expert in everything.
Because parole boards have a habit of releasing people saying they are no longer a threat who then go on to repeat their crimes? Seems a good reason not to trust parole boards
It's such an awful to have I don't know why anyone would do it. There's bound to be cases that go wrong, and as far as the public is concerned when things enter their consciousness they probably don't think anyone should be released, certainly not early.
I almost fell out of my chair in surprise when watching a TV show a few months ago where a main character who had a relative killed actually supported the request for parole from the perpetrator, after something like 15 years inside. Usually shows take such a stance that the person should not be paroled for the evil thing they did that they implicitly support life without parole for any violent crime.
Interesting. In that position I'd say it was entirely up to the State to make the decision. I would not be trained or informed to do it, quite apart from the emotional baggage (to put it very mildly).
I note two things about the disappearance of Nicola Bulley
1) it’s disrespectful for people to visit the location and make TikTok videos a bad the like and 2) it’s ok for channel 5 to have an hour long programme about said mystery, presumably with bits filmed in the location.
And one extra one - she’s an attractive white woman, so has caught the national attention. See also Sarah Everard.
Do you think the fact she's a white woman makes any difference to the coverage? I wouldn't have thought so.
It might be a stretch, and it’s down to the seemingly baffling aspects (if she fell in and drowned, she ought to have been found by now). But it reminds me a bit of other events.
Why are the Police so certain she "fell" into the river? She fell so suddenly that her mobile was found on a bench?
There was a death elsewhere where the lady fell into a stream in spate when trying to retrieve her dog, which had fallen in. Presumably the hound in this case was found dry?
A friend of my in laws died just that way some years ago. The body turned up a few days later in the river but a long way downstream.
And, let me guess, the dog was perfectly fine? Always is.
Just been to a very interesting talk and Q&A in a nearby village hall on the Ukraine war, given by Geoffrey Till, naval historian and professor of military strategy at the US Naval War College.
Some random take aways: - long conflict / frozen war the most likely near future outcome; - US can't produce ammunition at the rate it's being expended by Ukraine (!); - keeping the western unity is key; - nuclear escalation extremely unlikely; - taking out Putin could easily make the situation worse rather than resolve it.
And of course: no one knows because all the experts have been pitifully wrong so far.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
It isn't 'drifting strongly leftwards'.
If it was Labour would already hold it, or it would be at least in the top 50-100 Labour target seats. Even in 1997 the Tories won Hexham by just 222 votes.
You may as well have said Cameron winning Ealing Acton and Bristol North West and slashing the Labour majority to just 42 in Hampstead and Kilburn in 2010 meant they were moving 'strongly rightwards'. Rather than just reflecting the national swing and still being more Labour than average in an average year
No. It is moving consistently left by swinging that way in comparison with national and regional swings. Why? Well that's a question. But you made a blanket statement that rural areas are "overwhelmingly Conservative". Hexham isn't.
Pretty depressing discussion on the death penalty, reminiscent of a school debating society. Fortunately, there's no chance of it being brought back during my lifetime, at least. But the fact that it's even deemed worthy of debate adds fuel to the regressive fire we've been playing with for some years now.
Pretty soon, I expect Lee Anderson to pop up and say "my teachers used to beat me to within an inch of my life, and it never did me any harm".
And HYUFD will write "actually, YouGov found that 58% of voters want the cane brought back for when kids are really, really naughty".
I quite upset a relative of mine who told me about getting caned or slippered at school, by opining that anyone who performed such an act in that setting was probably a pervert or just an utter creep who got some sick thrill out of doing it.
It's one of those topics I don't equivocate on - almost all teachers can control kids without hitting them, so it is not necessary for any of them. (That is not the same as permitting schools to handle children who are engaged in violent acts, for the safety of others).
And other folk get a thrill out of thinking about it. That's why I am so wary, even suspicious, of people who advocate corporal or capital punishment.
You mean, there are politicians who get thrilled by slappers?
If Rishi is playing “defence”, why has he appointed Lee Anderson to spout shit?
You answered your own question. Lots of people agree with Lee Anderson.
Not the ones who might be persuaded into voting Tory.
If you're fighting de-fence you're no longer trying to persuade new people to vote Tory, but to rally those who already are.
Lee Anderson plays a role in that and helps spike defections to Reform.
See. I'm in wholehearted agreement with you here. The appointment of Lee Anderson stems the outflow pipe. All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
If the Labour lead, large though it currently may be, is as soft as many on here suggest, we could be lumbered with a further return to the 1950s.after the next election.
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
OK. It's not coming back.
The death penalty was last seriously on the agenda in the free votes in Parliament just after the 1983 GE when CON had a 144 maj. There were six votes on various options in relation to what types of offences it should be applied to. I vaguely recall that the closest result was a defeat by around 30 votes.
Then I believe there were more free votes in 1988, the CON majority was less then and it was easily defeated.
I don't think there have been any votes since then. It's not coming back. No more votes in Parliament about it, no referendum. OK?
If they really wanted they could vote for it now. They are massively less likely to have a majority after the next election.
The whole thing is just a bit of thuggish posing. Desperate stuff.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is. What's more. The last Council Elections, the very worst Tory results were in very rural areas. Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Somerset. The late, lamented Ishmael made this point repeatedly. I paid him not much mind till those results.
Blyth Valley is an ultra marginal swing seat, not safe Tory like most rural seats.
North Yorkshire has a Tory controlled council still.
Towns in Somerset like Taunton, Yeovil, Weston Super Mare, Bridgwater etc where the LDs made most of their gains are also not rural villages or farms, they are towns
Blyth Valley isn't rural at all.
Damn misleading names (yes, urban areas can be in valleys, the word conjures up more pastoral like images). I bet Mole Valley isn't full of Moles either.
Sometimes I fantasise about applying to the Conservative parliamentary list.
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
The time to join is at the nadir. Blair got first elected in 1983.
Yes, but the problem is you lot know all my weaknesses and foibles - and it's basically public record on here.
I've shat my own bed.
Presumably you wouldn’t be standing as “Casino Royale”.
It wouldn't be hard to work it out.
Several pb regulars know who I am.
I've had a few spats with you Casino but I can't think there's anything you've ever posted on here that would be fatal to your chances.
I'd say, go for it - you'd be a lot better than most of the the current mob.
Agreed. Casino’s real weakness is that he’s a bit too easy to wind up; politicians need fairly thick skins. That’s hardly disqualificatory, though.
While we aren’t on the same wavelength politically (to put it mildly), I think he be an asset to Parliament compared with a lot of the current denizens.
If Rishi believes in the death penalty - I am staggered that his so-called religion would allow him to but what do I know? - then he should come out and say so.
These are the last throws of a dying Government.
But these are not empty words, we are talking about people here. People that will have their lives taken if it meant a few points in the polls.
This country needs a reset and fast. We're heading one way right now and it is not the compassionate country that the UK is or should be.
The Tories must get out of Government.
The death penalty is rather divisive. Simplistically I see two reasons not to have it (or possibly three). Firstly some believe the state should not have to take lives, period. Secondly there are those who have less of an issue with that, but still oppose because there is too much chance of a terminal miscarriage of justice. Lastly there is the argument that it doesn’t actually act as a deterrent.
I am not in favour of restoring the death penalty, but events such as the murders of Lee Rigby and Sarah Everard test peoples beliefs to the limit. Why should such murderers have live, when their victims do not.
Why do you think you know better than the Parole Board? Your problem is you think you are an expert in everything.
Because parole boards have a habit of releasing people saying they are no longer a threat who then go on to repeat their crimes? Seems a good reason not to trust parole boards
It's such an awful to have I don't know why anyone would do it. There's bound to be cases that go wrong, and as far as the public is concerned when things enter their consciousness they probably don't think anyone should be released, certainly not early.
I almost fell out of my chair in surprise when watching a TV show a few months ago where a main character who had a relative killed actually supported the request for parole from the perpetrator, after something like 15 years inside. Usually shows take such a stance that the person should not be paroled for the evil thing they did that they implicitly support life without parole for any violent crime.
Interesting. In that position I'd say it was entirely up to the State to make the decision. I would not be trained or informed to do it, quite apart from the emotional baggage (to put it very mildly).
I kind of feel that way about public inquiries, and the emotional appeal of victims or relatives of victims for involvement or in essence de facto veto on those involved.
Yes, it's because I've not been in that situation, and yes, hobbled inquiries have existed, and yes, I may be overly inclined to trust in authority. But I still believe fundamentally that I don't really have a good way of judging who would be a good inquiry chair, and a certain cold detachment in setting them up might even be a good thing, so long as they were truly empowered to get to the bottom of things, rather than some emotional pull to do right to victims who probably already have villains in mind.
Sometimes I fantasise about applying to the Conservative parliamentary list.
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
The time to join is at the nadir. Blair got first elected in 1983.
Yes, but the problem is you lot know all my weaknesses and foibles - and it's basically public record on here.
I've shat my own bed.
Presumably you wouldn’t be standing as “Casino Royale”.
It wouldn't be hard to work it out.
Several pb regulars know who I am.
I've had a few spats with you Casino but I can't think there's anything you've ever posted on here that would be fatal to your chances.
I'd say, go for it - you'd be a lot better than most of the the current mob.
Agreed. Casino’s real weakness is that he’s a bit too easy to wind up; politicians need fairly thick skins. That’s hardly disqualificatory, though.
Indeed, if you can be wound in an entertaining way, flip it into a good rant about the opposing tribe, having that thin skin could even help a politician be popular on a broad but shallow basis.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
It isn't 'drifting strongly leftwards'.
If it was Labour would already hold it, or it would be at least in the top 50-100 Labour target seats. Even in 1997 the Tories won Hexham by just 222 votes.
You may as well have said Cameron winning Ealing Acton and Bristol North West and slashing the Labour majority to just 42 in Hampstead and Kilburn in 2010 meant they were moving 'strongly rightwards'. Rather than just reflecting the national swing and still being more Labour than average in an average year
No. It is moving consistently left by swinging that way in comparison with national and regional swings. Why? Well that's a question. But you made a blanket statement that rural areas are "overwhelmingly Conservative". Hexham isn't.
Well Kensington and Chelsea is still Conservative. The Tories won Birmingham Northfield in 2019 against the cities trend. So what? Cities are still 'overwhelmingly Labour.'
You can find an exception for anything, rural areas are still strongly Tory and urban areas still strongly Labour
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is. What's more. The last Council Elections, the very worst Tory results were in very rural areas. Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Somerset. The late, lamented Ishmael made this point repeatedly. I paid him not much mind till those results.
Blyth Valley is an ultra marginal swing seat, not safe Tory like most rural seats.
North Yorkshire has a Tory controlled council still.
Towns in Somerset like Taunton, Yeovil, Weston Super Mare, Bridgwater etc where the LDs made most of their gains are also not rural villages or farms, they are towns
Blyth Valley isn't rural at all.
Damn misleading names (yes, urban areas can be in valleys, the word conjures up more pastoral like images). I bet Mole Valley isn't full of Moles either.
It's Blyth. And Seaton Valley. Which isn't rural really. Nor really suburban. It's a bunch of tiny ex mining villages which have ultra cheap land and are close enough to Newcastle to have had a great many houses thrown up quickly.
On the surface a stunning Tory success against the run of play. But the previous Independent was an ultra Brexiteer who stood for the Tories this time and, well, UKIP are UKIP. So in one of the most right wing council wards in the country the Tory-UKIP-RWIndy went from 50.9+18.6+16.9=86.4% to 69%, and Lab-Grn went from 13.5% to 31%.
So a bigger right-left swing than West Lancs.
Just marveling at those stats again because they say something about the social segregation effect of large cities.
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
Yes, it used to be - going back 50 years or more here - that political values largely mirrored social class, and that each town and city had its middle class and working class areas. You may not like the views of the other lot, but at least you saw them, recognised them as people.
Feeds into politics as well. It used to be the case that big cities had a reasonably reliable Conservative constituency; Bristol West, Leeds North West, Manchester Withington, that sort of place.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
While the 2019 redwall seats, normally safe Labour, are now swing seats and can go Conservative if the Tories win nationally.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Yes. But drifting strongly leftwards. Against the regional and national trend. And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast. It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Blyth Valley is moving in the opposite direction.
Indeed it is. But HYUFD is arguing that rural seats are becoming ever more firmly Tory. Blyth Valley isn't particularly rural. Hexham certainly is.
HYUFD is not quite right. It is seats far from big cities which are becoming more Tory.
One of my favourite things is encountering people who are truly clueless about politics - not just normal general indifference, but totally ignorant of even the basics - such that they might live, and always lived, in the heart of rural Torydom and yet express genuine surprise when they notice local election results returning a sea of blue rosettes or whatever. "What, this lovely small village in the Shires votes 80% Tory and has done for 100 years?!"
"'We don't know who owns this object,' said White House spokesperson John Kirby."
The Alaska object hasn't been called a balloon yet. Perhaps it never will be.
As for the South Carolina balloon, the US hasn't named the company they suspect of manufacturing it, but in some articles the finger has been pointed at Zhuzhou, China's largest weather balloon manufacturer. Zhuzhou have denied it was one of theirs.
Then there's what I'll call the Colombia balloon. Goodness knows where that is or what happened to it. Colombia said it wasn't a national security threat. Perhaps a string fell off from around its neck and it spiralled around at high speed as if blowing a raspberry and when it landed in the Falklands it was so small that no-one noticed? Maybe it's on its way to a secret German base in Antarctica or something.
British defence secretary Ben Wallace says he would shoot down a Chinese spy balloon. He's a lad! "I would have recommended it were shot down at the most appropriate moment when we could have acquired the most appropriate levels of intelligence from it". Then he went on about satellites for some reason.
Will there be a big UFO event tied in to the British king's coronation? There's gotta be something bigger than the conquest of Mount Everest on the previous coronation day.
Comments
https://www.wargamer.com/dnd/for-all-kit
All the moreso when folk get outraged at his pronouncements. This strategy I think won't be enough to win an election. May be to get a hung Parliament.
Thanks to both you and @Sunil_Prasannan for drawing my attention to it last night 👍
Labour vote went from 51.6% to 72.1%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Barking_by-election
On the very same day, the Newham North East by-election saw the Labour vote go from 58.3% to 75.0%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Newham_North_East_by-election
Been so busy shovelling shit at work I've had missed it otherwise.
The Mode are pure artists: musical geniuses. With synths.
There are some on the route that I get on well enough to share my name jokes with
Mr Goodge didn't have a fighting style. He does now, and he loves it: Goodgitsu
Mrs Whalley's son's godfather had also put forward my second suggestion for his 'fun' name: Wes. Nobody had ever thought of my first; the Anglo-Saxon name Wodda. I'm told the Whalleys don't play family games of hide and seek and call it Where's Whalley..
Mr Cullis laughed when I asked if his penultimate initial stood for Port, then told me all about his ancestor the P name was from, and how that P had captained a ferry to the Isle of Wight that Queen Victoria had been a passenger on
I laughed when I gave Mr Kidney his climbing stones, and the obvious gag. He didn't look at all amused
There are some where I've not been brave enough
I so want to ask Mrs Puffet if she does a Keeping Up Appearances and insists her name rhymes with buffet. If she ever smiles at me I might
And I haven't yet told old Mr Layter that he should have called his daughter Susan Nora
Last time 86.4% voted for right wing or very right wing parties in that ward. It’s only 15 miles and a few train stops from my home. In the 2022 council elections in my ward (Brockley) 84% voted for either Labour or Green, or 91% for left of centre parties including the Lib Dems. 6% voted Conservative, and there were no other right wing parties.
15 miles apart and about as contrasting as it’s possible to get. Two nations living utterly separate realities.
The regulations are probably fine, but enforcement is a different matter.
#morelike
Hitching up Lee Anderson's skirt, running with capital punishment and winning the subsequent General Election is a point where rather a lot of people might consider whether this is the country for them. Quite where we would be allowed to go is a worry however.
Personally would say Labour most seats is nailed on, a majority highly likely, even though the hill too climb is pretty high. But nothing is certain, even now. Us weirdos on PB obsess about politics, but the man on the Clapham omnibus usually isn’t that engaged. He takes notice when the GE rolls round.
You're better than that lame political shit. I don't even know why you included it, as it undermines your point massively by presenting yourself as some kind of martyr.
For the record I'm not predicting a Labour landslide, but a modest Labour win, so provably wrong on why you think people might disagree. Nor did I even disagree entirely, since I said it 'could be true'. I think the reasons are true to an extent, but won't be enough, which is why I don't think it will be a landslide.
But sure, it's just a case of people being in fear reacting against you.
The death penalty was last seriously on the agenda in the free votes in Parliament just after the 1983 GE when CON had a 144 maj. There were six votes on various options in relation to what types of offences it should be applied to. I vaguely recall that the closest result was a defeat by around 30 votes.
Then I believe there were more free votes in 1988, the CON majority was less then and it was easily defeated.
I don't think there have been any votes since then. It's not coming back. No more votes in Parliament about it, no referendum. OK?
Capital punishment for serial killers? A Commons with a big Conservative majority could vote for that
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/labour-mp-jared-o-mara-cocaine-b2278783.html
There's something about the pointlessness of it all, and a heroic defeat, that appeals to me, at some level.
I almost fell out of my chair in surprise when watching a TV show a few months ago where a main character who had a relative killed actually supported the request for parole from the perpetrator, after something like 15 years inside. Usually shows take such a stance that the person should not be paroled for the evil thing they did that they implicitly support life without parole for any violent crime.
You are going to lose on the economy, but you might win on a Johnsonian return, Ukraine winning the war with Johnson back seat driving and a raft of Andersonian populism. I doubt the Labour Party is taking things for granted either.
But carry on, de gustibus non etc.
It's one of those topics I don't equivocate on - almost all teachers can control kids without hitting them, so it is not necessary for any of them. (That is not the same as permitting schools to handle children who are engaged in violent acts, for the safety of others).
I am sitting hoping it’s not the case. I know being a man myself doesn’t make me automatically guilty by association. But it sort of does.
This story had completely passed me until a couple of days ago.
Various things happened- parties have changed and so have the places. Some of the upmarket vote has moved further out and some have drifted towards Labour. In many of those constituencies, the Conservatives aren't even competitive any more.
In terms of winning elections, it's not a fatal handicap for the Conservatives. But in terms of bringing the country round the table, it is.
London might be next to go, for practical purposes. If the Conservatives are reduced to bits of fringe that partly define themselves as not-London (Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Croydon South), it wouldn't be a huge shock.
holds barred Conservatism.
I hope you are right.
Rural areas, where Labour in the past have had seats in areas like King's Lynn are now just as overwhelmingly Conservative as cities are overwhelmingly Labour.
That mirrors the US pattern and indeed the pattern in most of the western world
Would never buy one of their albums, mind.
One person I met, told me about "Jubilee
QUEEN'S JUBILEE
by Queen Liliʻuokalani
All hail to you, Great Queen of England
Fair Queen who rules over land and sea
From northern seas to southern shores
Your way is known both far and near
We come to your shores, gracious lady
On this great day of your Jubilee
To bring kind greetings from afar
May heaven bless you, long may you reign
All hail, all hail, Empress of India
In this your year of Jubilee
Now kings, queens and princes great
Have all assembled here today
To pay due homage and reverent love
Hawaii joins with loyal fervor
May Heaven smile on you
God bless the Queen, long may she live
KA IUBILE O KA MOIWAHINE
Mahalo piha, Mōʻī ʻo ʻEnelani
Kuʻi kou kaulana nā ʻāina pau
Na kai ākau nā one hema
ʻIkea kou ʻihi mana nui
Eia mākou i kou kapa kai
I kou lā nui Iubilī
I hiʻi mai i kou mākou aloha
Maluna ou ka malu o ka Lani
Hauʻoliʻoli ʻEmepela o ʻInia
I kēia makahiki Iubili
ʻĀkoakoa nā aliʻi ʻaimoku
A puni ke ao holoʻokoʻa
E hi`ilani e mililani
Ua hui pūʻia me Hawaiʻi
E uhi mai ka lani i kona nani
E ola ka Mōʻī ke Akua
Written by a Queen in honor of a Queen - a royal poem indeed!
And not just a poem, but a song. And not just a song, but a dance. The whole being loved and cherished to this day by the people of Hawai'i.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbqkjkkcE7M
But jog on Casino comrade. Continue fantasising about joining the Con List. It's not quite something that floats my particular boat.
I've shat my own bed.
The West Country and Wales (outside the valleys) seem different. The party support there is more traditional, less partisan. Strongly Brexit voting parts of the West Country for example voting Lib Dem in those by-elections, and no Bristol or Exeter equivalents of the Brockley-Dartford divide. Or maybe I’m being unscientific and romanticising the West.
It’s certainly the case in France. Brittany, Normandy, the Loire, Aquitaine, Limousin: all much less divided on the voting map than the corridor from Calais to Marseille.
Hague and IDS by contrast got elected in 1989 and 1992 respectively, Howard in 1983 and Rishi in 2015.
Ed Miliband was elected first in 2005.
If you want to become a PM who wins a general election it helps to be first elected when your party loses nationally, as you will benefit from the swing back when you eventually reach the top of your party
#morelike
I really hope it’s not a murder.
Depeche Mode. LOL.
At least there'd be a coherent paragraph out of you, and some semblance of nuance of argument.
You could end up Shadow Chancellor in 17 years time.
The Tory Party could do a lot worse.
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
And one of the most rural seats in England, never mind the northeast.
It isn't overwhelmingly Conservative any more.
Several pb regulars know who I am.
I'd say, go for it - you'd be a lot better than most of the the current mob.
What's more. The last Council Elections, the very worst Tory results were in very rural areas. Cumbria, North Yorkshire, Somerset.
The late, lamented Ishmael made this point repeatedly. I paid him not much mind till those results.
If it was Labour would already hold it, or it would be at least in the top 50-100 Labour target seats. Even in 1997 the Tories won Hexham by just 222 votes.
You may as well have said Cameron winning Ealing Acton and Bristol North West and slashing the Labour majority to just 42 in Hampstead and Kilburn in 2010 meant they were moving 'strongly rightwards'. Rather than just reflecting the national swing and still being more Labour than average in an average year
North Yorkshire has a Tory controlled council still.
Towns in Somerset like Taunton, Yeovil, Weston Super Mare, Bridgwater etc where the LDs made most of their gains are also not rural villages or farms, they are towns.
Same for towns in Cumbria like Carlisle, Barrow, Kendal and Workington which aren't rural either
Go for it CR. I'll sign your nomination papers.
You're a good egg.
The political equivalent of a military aircraft spewing chaff to draw away missiles?
It has the side effect of bringing another policy debate back onto the table, depending upon how it lands in the focus groups.
And it's likely to be a central tenet of Starmer's political beliefs. So he may overreact - the equivalent of HYUFD's response to a Catholic ascending to the throne.
Some random take aways:
- long conflict / frozen war the most likely near future outcome;
- US can't produce ammunition at the rate it's being expended by Ukraine (!);
- keeping the western unity is key;
- nuclear escalation extremely unlikely;
- taking out Putin could easily make the situation worse rather than resolve it.
And of course: no one knows because all the experts have been pitifully wrong so far.
Interesting evening though.
Why?
Well that's a question. But you made a blanket statement that rural areas are "overwhelmingly Conservative".
Hexham isn't.
They are massively less likely to have a majority after the next election.
The whole thing is just a bit of thuggish posing. Desperate stuff.
Casino’s real weakness is that he’s a bit too easy to wind up; politicians need fairly thick skins. That’s hardly disqualificatory, though.
While we aren’t on the same wavelength politically (to put it mildly), I think he be an asset to Parliament compared with a lot of the current denizens.
Yes, it's because I've not been in that situation, and yes, hobbled inquiries have existed, and yes, I may be overly inclined to trust in authority. But I still believe fundamentally that I don't really have a good way of judging who would be a good inquiry chair, and a certain cold detachment in setting them up might even be a good thing, so long as they were truly empowered to get to the bottom of things, rather than some emotional pull to do right to victims who probably already have villains in mind.
You can find an exception for anything, rural areas are still strongly Tory and urban areas still strongly Labour
"'We don't know who owns this object,' said White House spokesperson John Kirby."
The Alaska object hasn't been called a balloon yet. Perhaps it never will be.
As for the South Carolina balloon, the US hasn't named the company they suspect of manufacturing it, but in some articles the finger has been pointed at Zhuzhou, China's largest weather balloon manufacturer. Zhuzhou have denied it was one of theirs.
Then there's what I'll call the Colombia balloon. Goodness knows where that is or what happened to it. Colombia said it wasn't a national security threat. Perhaps a string fell off from around its neck and it spiralled around at high speed as if blowing a raspberry and when it landed in the Falklands it was so small that no-one noticed? Maybe it's on its way to a secret German base in Antarctica or something.
British defence secretary Ben Wallace says he would shoot down a Chinese spy balloon. He's a lad! "I would have recommended it were shot down at the most appropriate moment when we could have acquired the most appropriate levels of intelligence from it". Then he went on about satellites for some reason.
Will there be a big UFO event tied in to the British king's coronation?
There's gotta be something bigger than the conquest of Mount Everest on the previous coronation day.
Just not fair. Too young. Too brilliant.