29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
Just watching the Tory %:
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
The Tories were on only 19% with Truss with RedfieldWilton last October
Without your cherry picking, the polling average of the Truss month probably isn’t so far from Sunak’s most recent month, is it?
Sunak is currently top of a square. The bottom of the square is 5%. The lowest ever Liz Dip is way off bottom of the square.
Sunak is now only about 3% better than Truss at her worst on the measurement you have asked us to use.
Wrong.
Opinium had the Tories under Truss on 23%, now 29%. Redfield had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Yougov had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Omnisis now had the Tories on 22% now 24%. PeoplePolling had the Tories on 14% now 22%. Techne had the Tories on 22% now 27%. Deltapoll had the Tories on 25% now 29%.
are you cherry picking? Why? We have ALL the polls here, averaged out. What more do you need?
The graph shows average of pollsters over a long enough period to supply confidence, doesn’t it? It’s got all the polls on it, not just your favourite ones.
The graph you linked shows Truss dipping out just 3% lower than where Sunak is now. Doesn’t it?
Argue with the graph if you like, but it will tell you I’m right. The whole of the box is 5%. Sunak is now at top of the box, Truss at worse never averaged out right at bottom of the square.
Of course, many more polls as bad as the
February ones so far and the graph will be updated again so Sunak might be even closer
than 3% to the worst of Truss.
Cometh the hour.
Cometh the leader.
The one for Britain in our hour of need.
Step forward Mary Elizabeth - matriarch and monarch.
Some call her The Truss.
To many, she is simply:
‘Liz’.
I heard the interview. She really doesn't even have the most basic grasp of how the economy works. Like any school swot she revised her lines by rote and regurgitated them without any understanding.
She is living proof that academic qualifications can be churned out without the foggiest idea of what anything actually means.
There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.
You don't have to squint too hard to draw a trendline back to summer '21 and the peak of the vaccine bounce and the Boris blimp. There have been wobbles up (start of the war, end of Truss) and down (Partygate, the bonkers budget) but also a fairly steady 1 percent per month decline underlying that.
And whilst that can be turned around, the clock is ticking.
I remember saying here at the time to much piss taking from the Tory faithful that Johnson's popularity was as high then as it would ever be. I shortly after said Labour lead in the exact month it happened.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
Just watching the Tory %:
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
The Tories were on only 19% with Truss with RedfieldWilton last October
Without your cherry picking, the polling average of the Truss month probably isn’t so far from Sunak’s most recent month, is it?
Sunak is currently top of a square. The bottom of the square is 5%. The lowest ever Liz Dip is way off bottom of the square.
Sunak is now only about 3% better than Truss at her worst on the measurement you have asked us to use.
Wrong.
Opinium had the Tories under Truss on 23%, now 29%. Redfield had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Yougov had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Omnisis now had the Tories on 22% now 24%. PeoplePolling had the Tories on 14% now 22%. Techne had the Tories on 22% now 27%. Deltapoll had the Tories on 25% now 29%.
The differences are: 6%, 3%, 5%, 2%, 8%, 5%, 4%, 1%, -1%, and 0%.
Which averages 3.3%. Sunak has increased Tory support by 3.3% over Truss at her worst.
The last Redfield you are referring to was AFTER Truss had resigned and Sunak was already PM elect effectively anyway. Truss resigned on 20 October and it was taken on 23 October.
The same applies to the Savanta you refer to taken on 21-23 Oct. So again taken AFTER Truss had resigned.
The BMG you refer to was taken largely before the markets crashed after the mini budget. Even the Ipsos shows no change between Sunak and Truss.
So none really show the Tories not doing significantly better under Sunak now than Truss did after the mini budget and before her resignation
Now you just look silly.
How does your 19% YouGov (20-21 Oct) qualify? Or your 25% DeltaPoll (22-23 Oct). Or your 22% Omnisis (21-22 Oct)?
Tell you what, let's repeat the exercise only using the last Truss polls taken before 20 Oct.
The Truss premiership was a horror show from start to finish.
I never want to hear from her ever again.
It was a horror show even before it began. Who can forget the jury being out on Macron?
Whereas Sunak's sloppy Macron clinch has cost us millions of pounds worth of 'deal' which has yet to yield any noticeable decline in the numbers of small boats.
You know, there are many universes where Truss is fucking abysmal AND Sunak is fucking abysmal.
So are you celebrating being kicked out of Government and having PR implemented now? Welcome to the party
PR also means no Labour majority again (which is why most newly elected Labour MPs won't be Turkeys that vote for Christmas given 41% under PR would deliver far less MPs for Labour than under FPTP). RefUK would win seats too
Should people in Britain really be starving? I'm sure I saw a 1kg bag of rice going for 35p in Tesco not that long ago. Now you might be malnourished if you rely on that but actually starving? With the number of goods available it's possible that people aren't necessarily aware of what the cheapest staples are.
Of course, once you've got your bag of rice you then need to pay for the energy to cook it.
But the general point is taken. Compared to Michael Buerk's iconic images of skeletal children breathing their last on the barren plains of Ethiopia, who cares about the odd case of rickets here and there?
With fewer than a hundred cases a year, yes, you can afford not to think about rickets. It certainly has next to nothing to do with inflation.
The other relevant factor here is that the minimum wage has risen far faster than other wages. No one is pretending that life is easy for people at the bottom but in a lot of industries inflation outpacing wage increases has led to skilled jobs being paid at little more than the minimum wage. There was for instance the tik tok video of the single, 37 year old primary school teacher with 4 years experience pointing out that after his overheads are paid, he has £177 per month spending money, from a 33k per year job.... in Redcar.
You’d want to know what the overheads were though, to judge.
It was in the video. But roughly... Rent, bills, car, petrol, food, gym, netflix. 600+300+300+150+400+50+25....
He had a solution which was to go to dubai, pay no tax, have the same job with all your accommodation paid for you, and his disposable income rose from £177 to well over £1000 per month.
So his disposable income is £177 + £50 + £25 = £252
This type of attitude is exactly why there should be a general strike until pay in the public sector is corrected to account for historic inflation. People doing skilled work with lots of responsibility deserve to be paid properly, not sneered at for wanting to go to the gym.
There is no sneering. Under no reasonable definition could gym membership and pay TV be considered essentials. They are discretionary spend. So yes they do get included in disposable income
I never bought the idea Sunak was a good politician, in fact I said it many many times here when people were saying he'd continue the Johnson Government into the 2030s.
He's inexperienced and utterly out of his depth, that much is obvious.
But it doesn’t work like that. Because of an in built PM bias in this measurement, it’s normally a surprise LOTO gets close or any slender lead on this rating - PM have lost despite being more popular than their party on this rating.
Of more relevance, Starmer increasing his lead on this measurement is indicative of how Sunak is sliding.
So are you celebrating being kicked out of Government and having PR implemented now? Welcome to the party
PR also means no Labour majority again (which is why most newly elected Labour MPs won't vote for Christmas given 41% under PR would deliver far less MPs for Labour than under FPTP). RefUK would win seats too
Very happy never having a Labour majority again. You're the one that seems to mind.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Well the Tories tried to say he did, that seemed to fall on its face, big headline in the Mail a couple of weeks ago.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
Nick Tyrone seems pretty convinced they'd have us back, at least part because it would be seen as a vindication that leaving the EU is a bad idea. There is an interview on his substack he did with the former French Ambassador to the US who seems adamant the French would want us back. You don't think Stella Creasy and other very pro-EU Labour MPs will be getting on Starmer's case come 2028/9 if he hasn't started making noises about re-entering the single market?
To be honest I would suggest that come 28/29 there is a good chance Starmer will have a lot more to worry about than a few vocal back benchers banging on about the EU. For all that I will be glad to see the back of the Tories I have no faith that Starmer has the ideas necessary to improve things on any meaningful way
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
It was by the time he left.
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
Now the Leeds comprehensive educated Northern Liz has gone, we are guaranteed a posh Southern born and raised, privately educated PM whether Sunak or Starmer win
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I paid 10 quid for organic chicken breasts and 2.80 for organic eggs but Doom Bar at Wetherspoons is on just over 2 quid.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
It was by the time he left.
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
Now the comprehensive educated Northern Liz has gone, we are guaranteed a posh Southern born and raised, privately educated PM whether Sunak or Starmer win
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
Just watching the Tory %:
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
The Tories were on only 19% with Truss with RedfieldWilton last October
Without your cherry picking, the polling average of the Truss month probably isn’t so far from Sunak’s most recent month, is it?
Sunak is currently top of a square. The bottom of the square is 5%. The lowest ever Liz Dip is way off bottom of the square.
Sunak is now only about 3% better than Truss at her worst on the measurement you have asked us to use.
Wrong.
Opinium had the Tories under Truss on 23%, now 29%. Redfield had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Yougov had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Omnisis now had the Tories on 22% now 24%. PeoplePolling had the Tories on 14% now 22%. Techne had the Tories on 22% now 27%. Deltapoll had the Tories on 25% now 29%.
World's first female dictator coming soon - Kim Yo-jong in North Korea?
Kim Jong-un, who is not known for his healthy lifestyle, is still not appearing publicly, skipped yesterday's Politburo meeting, and may miss this week's military parade.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
It was by the time he left.
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
That's a bit twisty. Sure, but so are nearly 400 other schools.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
It was by the time he left.
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
Now the comprehensive educated Northern Liz has gone, we are guaranteed a posh Southern born and raised, privately educated PM whether Sunak or Starmer win
World's first female dictator coming soon - Kim Yo-jong in North Korea?
Kim Jong-un, who is not known for his healthy lifestyle, is still not appearing publicly, skipped yesterday's Politburo meeting, and may miss this week's military parade.
World's first female dictator coming soon - Kim Yo-jong in North Korea?
Kim Jong-un, who is not known for his healthy lifestyle, is still not appearing publicly, skipped yesterday's Politburo meeting, and may miss this week's military parade.
Have we really never had a female dictator in the modern age? That's a bit concerning. We've definitely had authoritarians in fairness.
Keep up the “privately educated Starmer” attacks please. It’s pathetic, and possibly worth even more vote share for Labour.
It's all a bit bizarre. The public have proven many times they don't have a problem voting for posh privately educated twonks, so long as they like them enough (or dislike the alternative enough). So even if he did it wouldn't matter, and it's definitely not firm enough to paint him as some hypocrite.
Keep up the “privately educated Starmer” attacks please. It’s pathetic, and possibly worth even more vote share for Labour.
It's all a bit bizarre. The public have proven many times they don't have a problem voting for posh privately educated twonks, so long as they like them enough (or dislike the alternative enough). So even if he did it wouldn't matter, and it's definitely not firm enough to paint him as some hypocrite.
There are many credible attacks to make on Keir. This ain’t one of them.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
Just watching the Tory %:
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
The Tories were on only 19% with Truss with RedfieldWilton last October
Without your cherry picking, the polling average of the Truss month probably isn’t so far from Sunak’s most recent month, is it?
Sunak is currently top of a square. The bottom of the square is 5%. The lowest ever Liz Dip is way off bottom of the square.
Sunak is now only about 3% better than Truss at her worst on the measurement you have asked us to use.
Wrong.
Opinium had the Tories under Truss on 23%, now 29%. Redfield had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Yougov had the Tories on 19%, now 24%. Omnisis now had the Tories on 22% now 24%. PeoplePolling had the Tories on 14% now 22%. Techne had the Tories on 22% now 27%. Deltapoll had the Tories on 25% now 29%.
are you cherry picking? Why? We have ALL the polls here, averaged out. What more do you need?
The graph shows average of pollsters over a long enough period to supply confidence, doesn’t it? It’s got all the polls on it, not just your favourite ones.
The graph you linked shows Truss dipping out just 3% lower than where Sunak is now. Doesn’t it?
Argue with the graph if you like, but it will tell you I’m right. The whole of the box is 5%. Sunak is now at top of the box, Truss at worse never averaged out right at bottom of the square.
Of course, many more polls as bad as the
February ones so far and the graph will be updated again so Sunak might be even closer
than 3% to the worst of Truss.
Cometh the hour.
Cometh the leader.
The one for Britain in our hour of need.
Step forward Mary Elizabeth - matriarch and monarch.
Some call her The Truss.
To many, she is simply:
‘Liz’.
I heard the interview. She really doesn't even have the most basic grasp of how the economy works. Like any school swot she revised her lines by rote and regurgitated them without any understanding.
She is living proof that academic qualifications can be churned out without the foggiest idea of what anything actually means.
You’re like a cross between the Stop Breeeeexit Man and the Goon Show.
The Goon Show?
Many of your references don't ring true for a 20 something girl about town. The "Confessions" reference earlier busted you as a 62 year old Wellingborough plasterer called Keith.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Well now, you are the one banging on about every clever kid should have access to a grammar school education, and here we are with the wrong sort of clever kid, and you think he should have transferred to a sink comp when the school became more exclusive.
You are no meritocrat, you are a shameless elitist.
This job would be a hell of a lot of easier without clients.
I once had a client who had sent a picture of his genitalia in a state of extreme excitement to his boss’s Secretary. Wanted me to negotiate a severance in advance of a misconduct hearing. He said he got the wrong number - offending pic had meant to go to a “friend” outside the company. I pointed out that, excluding the 07 at the start, there were 9 variable digits in a U.K. mobile telephone number. So the chances of him dialling his boss’s secretary’s number purely by chance were about 1 in 1,000,000,000. His response was to say, yes, but clearly that meant there was a chance he had got the wrong number and it would be unreasonable to fire him. He should be compensated. He also decided to seek alternative legal representation.
"In my view this is like 1997 where the tide has turned and the public want to see something different. The huge challenge the Tories face is that unlike some previous fights they are facing a Labour leader who while possibly being a bit boring is not one who is going to be easily undermined. He is not Jeremy Corbyn."
You’re like a cross between the Stop Breeeeexit Man and the Goon Show.
The Goon Show?
Many of your references don't ring true for a 20 something girl about town. The "Confessions" reference earlier busted you as a 62 year old Wellingborough plasterer called Keith.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Well now, you are the one banging on about every clever kid should have access to a grammar school education, and here we are with the wrong sort of clever kid, and you think he should have transferred to a sink comp when the school became more exclusive.
You are no meritocrat, you are a shameless elitist.
Of course I know about clockwork orange and goon show etc - I went to art college! If it’s 60’s 70’s I’m all over it.
It’s not the only confessions film I’ve seen! The humour is bright and sunny, the tits are great, and it’s probably realistic, I bet window cleaners and tradesman can tell a few stories!
She suddenly appears there in just stockings, a basque and no knickers and says her husband won’t be home for three hours - what you going to do Mex, make your apologies and leave and mail the invoice for the blocked sink?
Talking of stories, the “I” says Labour fear Boris returning and getting a hung Parliament. Are they really in tune with Labour fearing that, or do journalists just make this up?
"In my view this is like 1997 where the tide has turned and the public want to see something different. The huge challenge the Tories face is that unlike some previous fights they are facing a Labour leader who while possibly being a bit boring is not one who is going to be easily undermined. He is not Jeremy Corbyn."
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Should people in Britain really be starving? I'm sure I saw a 1kg bag of rice going for 35p in Tesco not that long ago. Now you might be malnourished if you rely on that but actually starving? With the number of goods available it's possible that people aren't necessarily aware of what the cheapest staples are.
Of course, once you've got your bag of rice you then need to pay for the energy to cook it.
But the general point is taken. Compared to Michael Buerk's iconic images of skeletal children breathing their last on the barren plains of Ethiopia, who cares about the odd case of rickets here and there?
With fewer than a hundred cases a year, yes, you can afford not to think about rickets. It certainly has next to nothing to do with inflation.
The other relevant factor here is that the minimum wage has risen far faster than other wages. No one is pretending that life is easy for people at the bottom but in a lot of industries inflation outpacing wage increases has led to skilled jobs being paid at little more than the minimum wage. There was for instance the tik tok video of the single, 37 year old primary school teacher with 4 years experience pointing out that after his overheads are paid, he has £177 per month spending money, from a 33k per year job.... in Redcar.
You’d want to know what the overheads were though, to judge.
It was in the video. But roughly... Rent, bills, car, petrol, food, gym, netflix. 600+300+300+150+400+50+25....
He had a solution which was to go to dubai, pay no tax, have the same job with all your accommodation paid for you, and his disposable income rose from £177 to well over £1000 per month.
So his disposable income is £177 + £50 + £25 = £252
This type of attitude is exactly why there should be a general strike until pay in the public sector is corrected to account for historic inflation. People doing skilled work with lots of responsibility deserve to be paid properly, not sneered at for wanting to go to the gym.
I am not sneering. If somebody wants to join a gym or subscribe to Netflix that is their choice. But making out that these are essentials rather than discretionary spend is just bollocks.
Also, not clear why Netflix is £25/month. Prices, IIRC, are between £5 (with ads, yuck) and £16.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
I didn't but I'd need to see a much more fulsome response than that. We need full FoM from the entire EU.
Industries such a entertainment, agriculture, and even the NHS are desperately in need of this, and all within a free trade zone.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
I didn't but I'd need to see a much more fulsome response than that. We need full FoM from the entire EU.
Industries such a entertainment, agriculture, and even the NHS are desperately in need of this, and all within a free trade zone.
Amazing to see how desperate some people are to keep unproductive sectors in business via poverty wages.
It is now just a question of how close our relationship with the EU should be.
1. Swiss-style? 2. EFTA? 3. Full on re-join?
The first can be delivered with good old-fashioned incrementalism, aka “muddle”.
Mass immigration and laws imposed on us without our say OR mass immigration and our economy controlled by German bankers in Frankfurt.
To be fair, @WillG, the Swiss have managed to control low skilled immigration pretty effectively, while having control over trade agreements outside the EEA, and having a very close relationship with the EU.
It is now just a question of how close our relationship with the EU should be.
1. Swiss-style? 2. EFTA? 3. Full on re-join?
The first can be delivered with good old-fashioned incrementalism, aka “muddle”.
Mass immigration and laws imposed on us without our say OR mass immigration and our economy controlled by German bankers in Frankfurt.
To be fair, @WillG, the Swiss have managed to control low skilled immigration pretty effectively, while having control over trade agreements outside the EEA, and having a very close relationship with the EU.
They seem pretty happy and rich too.
The Swiss don't face the issue of being primarily English speaking, which is a massive pull factor for immigrants.
I assume that is the main barrier as there are no legal restrictions for Eastern European immigration to Switzerland, yet they don't have many. Clearly a different case to the UK.
Interesting article comparing the consolidation of the global battery market with that of the memory chip industry. I think some of the comparison is debatable, as it’s still early days in the growth of the industry, and European and Japanese players might have a chance, but it shows a kind of strategic thinking pretty rare in the UK. (Bonus for the brief, dismissive mention of Britishvolt.)
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2023/02/133_344822.html … A new order is also prevailing in the global battery industry, as Korean battery manufacturers are on track to increase their production capacity to take on their chief Chinese rivals including CATL and BYD.
Enticed by advantages from the market consolidation and rationalization, the world's No. 2 battery maker LG Energy Solution (LGES) and its fellow domestic rivals Samsung SDI and SK On aim to remain competitive with their large-scale and technological capabilities, company officials said.
A severe economic downturn starting in the late 1990s was the factor behind the memory chip industry consolidation, as this macro-economic trend severely reduced demand in major end markets. But today's signs of consolidation in the battery industry are driven by political factors from the very beginning, with the U.S. providing more incentives and financing for Korean battery manufacturers amid pandemic supply chain disruptions…
“ Given the U.S.' strategy to upscale both demand- and supply-side measures and its shift to electrification with domestic manufacturing, the pace of industry consolidation will accelerate much faster than expected," a government official, who had been deeply involved in the country's trade policies under the former Moon administration, said by telephone.
Since 2012, most of the memory chip sector's core strength has been a result of consolidation within the once-crowded DRAM segment. In 1995, the top 10 DRAM players took up about an 80 percent market share. Since then, the market has been consolidating rapidly. Between 2013 and 2014, Samsung, Micron and SK accounted for more than a 90 percent market share, according to market research firms.
"Usually, overproduction and falling product prices lead significant market consolidation. When it comes to the battery industry, because the U.S. is moving towards friend-shoring or ally-shoring, LGES and Samsung SDI could be able to win the most gains among others as they supply batteries to specific and target clients via joint ventures," a senior portfolio manager at a U.S.-based investment bank in Seoul said.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Biden administration's policy initiative intended to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), is another factor helping Korean battery manufacturers see a widened economies of scale, according to the manager. Economies of scale are viewed as cost benefits to a business through the scale-up production....
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
I agree, Eastern Europe is more prosperous now, and I wouldn't expect another wave of mass immigration if we rejoin the SM. Indeed getting FoM back might see a bigger effect on emigration than immigration.
Much of the economic and social damage done by Brexit is permanent, and while reversing Brexit might help halt further damage it isn't a simple answer to our economic malaise.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
Probably true - though Brexit provided a large one off shock which can hardly be described as part of a trend. (And zero Brexiteers were arguing your point ahead of Brexit.)
Should people in Britain really be starving? I'm sure I saw a 1kg bag of rice going for 35p in Tesco not that long ago. Now you might be malnourished if you rely on that but actually starving? With the number of goods available it's possible that people aren't necessarily aware of what the cheapest staples are.
Of course, once you've got your bag of rice you then need to pay for the energy to cook it.
But the general point is taken. Compared to Michael Buerk's iconic images of skeletal children breathing their last on the barren plains of Ethiopia, who cares about the odd case of rickets here and there?
With fewer than a hundred cases a year, yes, you can afford not to think about rickets. It certainly has next to nothing to do with inflation.
The other relevant factor here is that the minimum wage has risen far faster than other wages. No one is pretending that life is easy for people at the bottom but in a lot of industries inflation outpacing wage increases has led to skilled jobs being paid at little more than the minimum wage. There was for instance the tik tok video of the single, 37 year old primary school teacher with 4 years experience pointing out that after his overheads are paid, he has £177 per month spending money, from a 33k per year job.... in Redcar.
You’d want to know what the overheads were though, to judge.
It was in the video. But roughly... Rent, bills, car, petrol, food, gym, netflix. 600+300+300+150+400+50+25....
He had a solution which was to go to dubai, pay no tax, have the same job with all your accommodation paid for you, and his disposable income rose from £177 to well over £1000 per month.
This guy?
“The exercise in totting up monthly goings in the UK and UAE has since notched more than four million views. In the video, the primary schoolteacher shows how much he would have earned in the UK after the many deductions, such as taxes, rent, car finance and food, from a salary of £33,850 ($41,074) — leaving him just £171.94 for socialising and saving each month.
“But in Dubai, thanks to free accommodation provided by his employer and no income tax, he has £1,604 left each month from his £32,460 annual salary after paying bills and buying food.
“ “I get all [year] round sunshine, and I get health care provided by my employer and I only have to pay 20 per cent [insurance] co-pay, which means anything as an outpatient, I pay 20 per cent for, but I get to see a doctor or a dentist on the day,” the 36-year-old from Redcar says in the video.”
It is now just a question of how close our relationship with the EU should be.
1. Swiss-style? 2. EFTA? 3. Full on re-join?
The first can be delivered with good old-fashioned incrementalism, aka “muddle”.
Mass immigration and laws imposed on us without our say OR mass immigration and our economy controlled by German bankers in Frankfurt.
To be fair, @WillG, the Swiss have managed to control low skilled immigration pretty effectively, while having control over trade agreements outside the EEA, and having a very close relationship with the EU.
They seem pretty happy and rich too.
The Swiss don't face the issue of being primarily English speaking, which is a massive pull factor for immigrants.
I assume that is the main barrier as there are no legal restrictions for Eastern European immigration to Switzerland, yet they don't have many. Clearly a different case to the UK.
You are right that English being the ... errr ... lingua franca is a particular issue for us.
But it is worth remembering that English was not taught at all in Eastern Europe until the mid 1990s. If you were born in 1980 in Warsaw or Budapest, you will have been taught Russian at school.
People will learn new languages if it is economically advantageous to them. (Plus, of course, you don't need to spend much time in East London to realise there are plenty of immigrants to the UK with minimal English.)
Switzerland has controlled low skilled EU immigration through three routes:
Firstly, for many roles, you need to have Swiss vocational qualifications. Not just anybody can turn up on a Swiss building site and work. Now, those vocational qualifications are relatively easy to get. But that's still a meaningful barrier.
Secondly (and relatedly): there's not a lot of low skilled work in Switzerland. They do an incredible job of upskilling their own population. People get to 21 with the skills to be a plumber, etc.
Thirdly, private health insurance is compulsory in Switzerland, and the lowest cost plans are only available to Swiss nationals (and those with official work permits). So, Igor from Bucharest - if he wishes to work - will need to be in possession of a CHF500/month healthcare plan.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
Probably true - though Brexit provided a large one off shock which can hardly be described as part of a trend. (And zero Brexiteers were arguing your point ahead of Brexit.)
It was a pleasant one-off shock for many unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the UK, many of whom now earn 20-30% more than they did under FoM, when the legal minimum wage was seen as the maximum wage in a huge number of industries. Those people will be paying more taxes and claiming fewer benefits now, than they did two or three years ago.
Binance to suspend fiat withdrawals later this week. They’re pretty much the last major crypto exchange standing. Whether or not they’re still standing this time next week, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader…
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
Probably true - though Brexit provided a large one off shock which can hardly be described as part of a trend. (And zero Brexiteers were arguing your point ahead of Brexit.)
It was a pleasant one-off shock for many unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the UK, many of whom now earn 20-30% more than they did under FoM, when the legal minimum wage was seen as the maximum wage in a huge number of industries. Those people will be paying more taxes and claiming fewer benefits now, than they did two or three years ago.
In case you missed it, you’re losing hundreds of mobliks and a dozen tanks every day in Ukraine at the moment. Not too sure there’s much left of the once-mighty Russian military to go around.
Should people in Britain really be starving? I'm sure I saw a 1kg bag of rice going for 35p in Tesco not that long ago. Now you might be malnourished if you rely on that but actually starving? With the number of goods available it's possible that people aren't necessarily aware of what the cheapest staples are.
Of course, once you've got your bag of rice you then need to pay for the energy to cook it.
But the general point is taken. Compared to Michael Buerk's iconic images of skeletal children breathing their last on the barren plains of Ethiopia, who cares about the odd case of rickets here and there?
With fewer than a hundred cases a year, yes, you can afford not to think about rickets. It certainly has next to nothing to do with inflation.
The other relevant factor here is that the minimum wage has risen far faster than other wages. No one is pretending that life is easy for people at the bottom but in a lot of industries inflation outpacing wage increases has led to skilled jobs being paid at little more than the minimum wage. There was for instance the tik tok video of the single, 37 year old primary school teacher with 4 years experience pointing out that after his overheads are paid, he has £177 per month spending money, from a 33k per year job.... in Redcar.
You’d want to know what the overheads were though, to judge.
It was in the video. But roughly... Rent, bills, car, petrol, food, gym, netflix. 600+300+300+150+400+50+25....
He had a solution which was to go to dubai, pay no tax, have the same job with all your accommodation paid for you, and his disposable income rose from £177 to well over £1000 per month.
This guy?
“The exercise in totting up monthly goings in the UK and UAE has since notched more than four million views. In the video, the primary schoolteacher shows how much he would have earned in the UK after the many deductions, such as taxes, rent, car finance and food, from a salary of £33,850 ($41,074) — leaving him just £171.94 for socialising and saving each month.
“But in Dubai, thanks to free accommodation provided by his employer and no income tax, he has £1,604 left each month from his £32,460 annual salary after paying bills and buying food.
“ “I get all [year] round sunshine, and I get health care provided by my employer and I only have to pay 20 per cent [insurance] co-pay, which means anything as an outpatient, I pay 20 per cent for, but I get to see a doctor or a dentist on the day,” the 36-year-old from Redcar says in the video.”
There’s a huge shortage of native English speaking teachers out here, both for local state schools and expat private schools.
Yeah, that was the video. I just like the way he was saying 'im not going to listen to lectures about avocados'. (substitute this for netflix/gym membership etc); he just moves to Dubai to get paid properly. If you think about it as well, this all comes alongside lectures from Ofsted etc about needing 'to remove failing teachers', who make teachers lives hell (probably not the case in Dubai) and complaints about a 'shortage of teachers' and 'teachers leaving the profession'. The expectations foisted on young people is just irrational. It isn't too hard to just join the dots.... pay teachers better and improve their conditions and this won't be an issue.
Binance to suspend fiat withdrawals later this week. They’re pretty much the last major crypto exchange standing. Whether or not they’re still standing this time next week, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader…
There's a certain irony that it was Binance that precipitated the collapse of FTX.
In case you missed it, you’re losing hundreds of mobliks and a dozen tanks every day in Ukraine at the moment. Not too sure there’s much left of the once-mighty Russian military to go around.
What gets me are the idiots - and idiots are a nice term for them - who excuse Russia's actions. It's not their fault. It's ours (wrong). We promised no eastwards NATO expansion (wrong). The Ukrainians are Nazis (wrong). Russia deserves a hinterland for protection (wrong). wibble wibble Stepan Bandera (wrong). Russia wants peace (wrong). We 'poked' Russia into this war (wrong). The war needs to end now (wrong, sadly).
All you need to do is listen to what Lavrov and Putin say to see the real cause of this war: Russian fascist imperialism. Whatever we said or did, they would have made a play for Ukraine or another state. Because that's their world view.
The Russians have wasted a lot of FSB money on Moldovan politicians who turned out to be duds (Dodon then Shor) which is presumably why one of Lavrov's "technical/military' solutions is on the table.
"In my view this is like 1997 where the tide has turned and the public want to see something different. The huge challenge the Tories face is that unlike some previous fights they are facing a Labour leader who while possibly being a bit boring is not one who is going to be easily undermined. He is not Jeremy Corbyn."
I really don't see a way back for the tories from this and Liz Truss has now come along to remind everyone just how awful it has been.
The tide has indeed turned and, like dear old King Canute, there is nothing Sunak and Co can do to stop it.
The big question is how popular is Starmer in Red Wall areas like Stoke-on-Trent and Grimsby.
If Redfield and Wilton are to be believed, Starmer is probably popular enough;
When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, Starmer (43%, +1) leads Sunak (33%, +1) by ten points. 24% (-2) say they don’t know.
World's first female dictator coming soon - Kim Yo-jong in North Korea?
Kim Jong-un, who is not known for his healthy lifestyle, is still not appearing publicly, skipped yesterday's Politburo meeting, and may miss this week's military parade.
The Russians have wasted a lot of FSB money on Moldovan politicians who turned out to be duds (Dodon then Shor) which is presumably why one of Lavrov's "technical/military' solutions is on the table.
I was assuming it’s bluster in case Moldova decided to take advantage of Russia’s preoccupation to reassert control over Transnistria.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
Probably true - though Brexit provided a large one off shock which can hardly be described as part of a trend. (And zero Brexiteers were arguing your point ahead of Brexit.)
It was a pleasant one-off shock for many unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the UK, many of whom now earn 20-30% more than they did under FoM, when the legal minimum wage was seen as the maximum wage in a huge number of industries. Those people will be paying more taxes and claiming fewer benefits now, than they did two or three years ago.
Binance to suspend fiat withdrawals later this week. They’re pretty much the last major crypto exchange standing. Whether or not they’re still standing this time next week, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader…
There's a certain irony that it was Binance that precipitated the collapse of FTX.
Is it irony or merely a different Ponzi scheme pointing the blame anywhere else first.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
It was by the time he left.
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
Now the Leeds comprehensive educated Northern Liz has gone, we are guaranteed a posh Southern born and raised, privately educated PM whether Sunak or Starmer win
You really are clutching at straws there - for the x00th time it was a state school when Starmer joined and he never paid fees (and nor did anyone who was a pupil in the years before it became a private school).
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
Did you see my response to you from a few days ago? Rejoining the single market won't recreate the labour market conditions of the decade after 2004 because the A8 member states are now much more prosperous. This trend would have happened with or without Brexit.
Probably true - though Brexit provided a large one off shock which can hardly be described as part of a trend. (And zero Brexiteers were arguing your point ahead of Brexit.)
It was a pleasant one-off shock for many unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the UK, many of whom now earn 20-30% more than they did under FoM, when the legal minimum wage was seen as the maximum wage in a huge number of industries. Those people will be paying more taxes and claiming fewer benefits now, than they did two or three years ago.
Whatever the particular case, though, if you look at the UK statistics for the last decade, it's undeniable that the percentage of those on the lowest hourly rates has fallen since 2016 (though there were already some signs of that trend pre-Brexit - and also it's more true of those paid by the hour than those paid weekly).
The argument is really about how fast that trend would have happened anyway, and whether the economic shock of Brexit was worth it.
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
It was by the time he left.
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
Now the Leeds comprehensive educated Northern Liz has gone, we are guaranteed a posh Southern born and raised, privately educated PM whether Sunak or Starmer win
You really are clutching at straws there - for the x00th time it was a state school when Starmer joined and he never paid fees (and nor did anyone who was a pupil in the years before it became a private school).
Yes the better attack line is on grammar schools, rather than private schools. ‘Your old grammar school became a private school rather than a comprehensive, should average middle-class parents now find it even less affordable to send their kids there?’
Course. Time for a change pretty soon becomes Long Past Time for a Change. Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note. Starmer isn't Blair.
Starmer isn't Blair, but that may be not such a bad thing.
Well, for example, Starmer didn't go to a posh public school.
Eh? Starmer's old school is an independent HMC school.
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
Even the Mail has given up with this.
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
It was by the time he left.
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
Now the Leeds comprehensive educated Northern Liz has gone, we are guaranteed a posh Southern born and raised, privately educated PM whether Sunak or Starmer win
You really are clutching at straws there - for the x00th time it was a state school when Starmer joined and he never paid fees (and nor did anyone who was a pupil in the years before it became a private school).
In one way it would be good if Johnson made a comeback.
Labour’s slogan:
Do you want to vote for somebody whose dad made massive tools of poor quality
Should people in Britain really be starving? I'm sure I saw a 1kg bag of rice going for 35p in Tesco not that long ago. Now you might be malnourished if you rely on that but actually starving? With the number of goods available it's possible that people aren't necessarily aware of what the cheapest staples are.
Of course, once you've got your bag of rice you then need to pay for the energy to cook it.
But the general point is taken. Compared to Michael Buerk's iconic images of skeletal children breathing their last on the barren plains of Ethiopia, who cares about the odd case of rickets here and there?
With fewer than a hundred cases a year, yes, you can afford not to think about rickets. It certainly has next to nothing to do with inflation.
The other relevant factor here is that the minimum wage has risen far faster than other wages. No one is pretending that life is easy for people at the bottom but in a lot of industries inflation outpacing wage increases has led to skilled jobs being paid at little more than the minimum wage. There was for instance the tik tok video of the single, 37 year old primary school teacher with 4 years experience pointing out that after his overheads are paid, he has £177 per month spending money, from a 33k per year job.... in Redcar.
You’d want to know what the overheads were though, to judge.
It was in the video. But roughly... Rent, bills, car, petrol, food, gym, netflix. 600+300+300+150+400+50+25....
He had a solution which was to go to dubai, pay no tax, have the same job with all your accommodation paid for you, and his disposable income rose from £177 to well over £1000 per month.
This guy?
“The exercise in totting up monthly goings in the UK and UAE has since notched more than four million views. In the video, the primary schoolteacher shows how much he would have earned in the UK after the many deductions, such as taxes, rent, car finance and food, from a salary of £33,850 ($41,074) — leaving him just £171.94 for socialising and saving each month.
“But in Dubai, thanks to free accommodation provided by his employer and no income tax, he has £1,604 left each month from his £32,460 annual salary after paying bills and buying food.
“ “I get all [year] round sunshine, and I get health care provided by my employer and I only have to pay 20 per cent [insurance] co-pay, which means anything as an outpatient, I pay 20 per cent for, but I get to see a doctor or a dentist on the day,” the 36-year-old from Redcar says in the video.”
There’s a huge shortage of native English speaking teachers out here, both for local state schools and expat private schools.
Yeah, that was the video. I just like the way he was saying 'im not going to listen to lectures about avocados'. (substitute this for netflix/gym membership etc); he just moves to Dubai to get paid properly. If you think about it as well, this all comes alongside lectures from Ofsted etc about needing 'to remove failing teachers', who make teachers lives hell (probably not the case in Dubai) and complaints about a 'shortage of teachers' and 'teachers leaving the profession'. The expectations foisted on young people is just irrational. It isn't too hard to just join the dots.... pay teachers better and improve their conditions and this won't be an issue.
Comments
On Raab, I hope he's sacked but wouldn't be so sure.
I still can't actually imagine it happening - but the polls are bad. If the best for the Tories is 17 points they are in trouble, deep deep trouble.
At this moment, which of the following do British voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (5 Feb.)
Keir Starmer 41% (–)
Rishi Sunak 32% (-3)
Changes +/- 29 Jan.
Ah well, Tories can't even rely on this metric anymore.
Folk who bemoan a lack of Labour radicalism should note.
Starmer isn't Blair.
What exactly is Sunak going to find? The economy had started to recover in 2010, Labour still got kicked out.
George Osborne said it best when he said that if the economy goes on your watch, your time is up. The Tories did it themselves.
You can see desperation when they are attacking the Labour government of 13 YEARS AGO
How does your 19% YouGov (20-21 Oct) qualify? Or your 25% DeltaPoll (22-23 Oct). Or your 22% Omnisis (21-22 Oct)?
Tell you what, let's repeat the exercise only using the last Truss polls taken before 20 Oct.
Now we get:
Opinium (26% / 29% / 3%)
R&W (19% / 24% / 5%)
Yougov (23% / 24% / 1%)
Omnisis (28% / 24% / -4%)
PeoplePolling (19% / 22% / 3%)
Techne (25% / 27% / 2%)
Deltapoll (23% / 29% / 6%)
Savanta (22% / 26% / 4%)
BMG (30% / 29% / -1%)
Ipsos (26% / 26% / 0%)
That set (3, 5, 1, -4, 3, 2, 6, 4,-1, and 0) gives an average Tory vote share improvement under Sunak of, oh... only 1.9%
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=32&LAB=41&LIB=9&Reform=5&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=18.5&SCOTLAB=29.5&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
We live in one.
He's inexperienced and utterly out of his depth, that much is obvious.
Of more relevance, Starmer increasing his lead on this measurement is indicative of how Sunak is sliding.
I’m not the only psephologist here who can see the topless lady in the polling am I?
He is the first Labour leader to have gone to public school since Blair
When he went it was not a private school. Starmer is not able to time travel.
You accepting you're wrong now?
It has fees of over £20k a year now and is in the HMC along with Eton, Winchester and Fettes.
Now the Leeds comprehensive educated Northern Liz has gone, we are guaranteed a posh Southern born and raised, privately educated PM whether Sunak or Starmer win
https://www.hmc.org.uk/schools/reigate-grammar-school/
Are you mad?
salute the lines on the graph. In all their bosomy glory. 🫡
Kim Jong-un, who is not known for his healthy lifestyle, is still not appearing publicly, skipped yesterday's Politburo meeting, and may miss this week's military parade.
You’re like a cross between the Stop Breeeeexit Man and the Goon Show.
Many of your references don't ring true for a 20 something girl about town. The "Confessions" reference earlier busted you as a 62 year old Wellingborough plasterer called Keith. Well now, you are the one banging on about every clever kid should have access to a grammar school education, and here we are with the wrong sort of clever kid, and you think he should have transferred to a sink comp when the school became more exclusive.
You are no meritocrat, you are a shameless elitist.
Spot on @MikeSmithson
I really don't see a way back for the tories from this and Liz Truss has now come along to remind everyone just how awful it has been.
The tide has indeed turned and, like dear old King Canute, there is nothing Sunak and Co can do to stop it.
It’s not the only confessions film I’ve seen! The humour is bright and sunny, the tits are great, and it’s probably realistic, I bet window cleaners and tradesman can tell a few stories!
She suddenly appears there in just stockings, a basque and no knickers and says her husband won’t be home for three hours - what you going to do Mex, make your apologies and leave and mail the invoice for the blocked sink?
Talking of stories, the “I” says Labour fear Boris returning and getting a hung Parliament. Are they really in tune with Labour fearing that, or do journalists just make this up?
@Richard_Tyndall I was discussing this with a Conservative member friend who came for dinner tonight - I know, I know, I can even entertain the other side. We both agreed that the tories are in for a hammering but of course had different views about what happens after that. My take is that we HAVE to rejoin the EU. There is a desperate shortage of flexible labour in a free trade zone. If Labour can make the case for this then it will go some way to helping get this country's economy back on track.
I don't see a solution for the UK economy but to rejoin the single market, WITH freedom of movement.
1. Swiss-style?
2. EFTA?
3. Full on re-join?
The first can be delivered with good old-fashioned incrementalism, aka “muddle”.
Industries such a entertainment, agriculture, and even the NHS are desperately in need of this, and all within a free trade zone.
They seem pretty happy and rich too.
I assume that is the main barrier as there are no legal restrictions for Eastern European immigration to Switzerland, yet they don't have many. Clearly a different case to the UK.
(Bonus for the brief, dismissive mention of Britishvolt.)
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2023/02/133_344822.html
… A new order is also prevailing in the global battery industry, as Korean battery manufacturers are on track to increase their production capacity to take on their chief Chinese rivals including CATL and BYD.
Enticed by advantages from the market consolidation and rationalization, the world's No. 2 battery maker LG Energy Solution (LGES) and its fellow domestic rivals Samsung SDI and SK On aim to remain competitive with their large-scale and technological capabilities, company officials said.
A severe economic downturn starting in the late 1990s was the factor behind the memory chip industry consolidation, as this macro-economic trend severely reduced demand in major end markets. But today's signs of consolidation in the battery industry are driven by political factors from the very beginning, with the U.S. providing more incentives and financing for Korean battery manufacturers amid pandemic supply chain disruptions…
“ Given the U.S.' strategy to upscale both demand- and supply-side measures and its shift to electrification with domestic manufacturing, the pace of industry consolidation will accelerate much faster than expected," a government official, who had been deeply involved in the country's trade policies under the former Moon administration, said by telephone.
Since 2012, most of the memory chip sector's core strength has been a result of consolidation within the once-crowded DRAM segment. In 1995, the top 10 DRAM players took up about an 80 percent market share. Since then, the market has been consolidating rapidly. Between 2013 and 2014, Samsung, Micron and SK accounted for more than a 90 percent market share, according to market research firms.
"Usually, overproduction and falling product prices lead significant market consolidation. When it comes to the battery industry, because the U.S. is moving towards friend-shoring or ally-shoring, LGES and Samsung SDI could be able to win the most gains among others as they supply batteries to specific and target clients via joint ventures," a senior portfolio manager at a U.S.-based investment bank in Seoul said.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Biden administration's policy initiative intended to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles (EVs), is another factor helping Korean battery manufacturers see a widened economies of scale, according to the manager. Economies of scale are viewed as cost benefits to a business through the scale-up production....
Much of the economic and social damage done by Brexit is permanent, and while reversing Brexit might help halt further damage it isn't a simple answer to our economic malaise.
(And zero Brexiteers were arguing your point ahead of Brexit.)
“The exercise in totting up monthly goings in the UK and UAE has since notched more than four million views. In the video, the primary schoolteacher shows how much he would have earned in the UK after the many deductions, such as taxes, rent, car finance and food, from a salary of £33,850 ($41,074) — leaving him just £171.94 for socialising and saving each month.
“But in Dubai, thanks to free accommodation provided by his employer and no income tax, he has £1,604 left each month from his £32,460 annual salary after paying bills and buying food.
“ “I get all [year] round sunshine, and I get health care provided by my employer and I only have to pay 20 per cent [insurance] co-pay, which means anything as an outpatient, I pay 20 per cent for, but I get to see a doctor or a dentist on the day,” the 36-year-old from Redcar says in the video.”
https://www.thenationalnews.com/weekend/2023/01/13/all-roads-lead-to-dubai-for-the-workers-deserting-britains-sinking-ship/
There’s a huge shortage of native English speaking teachers out here, both for local state schools and expat private schools.
But it is worth remembering that English was not taught at all in Eastern Europe until the mid 1990s. If you were born in 1980 in Warsaw or Budapest, you will have been taught Russian at school.
People will learn new languages if it is economically advantageous to them. (Plus, of course, you don't need to spend much time in East London to realise there are plenty of immigrants to the UK with minimal English.)
Switzerland has controlled low skilled EU immigration through three routes:
Firstly, for many roles, you need to have Swiss vocational qualifications. Not just anybody can turn up on a Swiss building site and work. Now, those vocational qualifications are relatively easy to get. But that's still a meaningful barrier.
Secondly (and relatedly): there's not a lot of low skilled work in Switzerland. They do an incredible job of upskilling their own population. People get to 21 with the skills to be a plumber, etc.
Thirdly, private health insurance is compulsory in Switzerland, and the lowest cost plans are only available to Swiss nationals (and those with official work permits). So, Igor from Bucharest - if he wishes to work - will need to be in possession of a CHF500/month healthcare plan.
Amazon warehouses are now paying £15 an hour - that’s £30k a year if you work 40 hours a week, and there will likely be pretty much unlimited overtime available.
https://uk.indeed.com/cmp/Amazon.com/salaries/Warehouse-Worker
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/06/binance-will-suspend-us-dollar-transfers.html
Binance to suspend fiat withdrawals later this week. They’re pretty much the last major crypto exchange standing. Whether or not they’re still standing this time next week, on the other hand, is a question best left to the reader…
https://www.news18.com/business/amazon-uk-workers-go-on-strike-over-low-pay-raise-severe-working-conditions-6929137.html
Here's yet another threat from Lavrov against Moldova.
https://www.dw.com/en/russia-steps-up-threats-against-republic-of-moldova/a-64612019
In case you missed it, you’re losing hundreds of mobliks and a dozen tanks every day in Ukraine at the moment. Not too sure there’s much left of the once-mighty Russian military to go around.
I just like the way he was saying 'im not going to listen to lectures about avocados'. (substitute this for netflix/gym membership etc); he just moves to Dubai to get paid properly.
If you think about it as well, this all comes alongside lectures from Ofsted etc about needing 'to remove failing teachers', who make teachers lives hell (probably not the case in Dubai) and complaints about a 'shortage of teachers' and 'teachers leaving the profession'.
The expectations foisted on young people is just irrational.
It isn't too hard to just join the dots.... pay teachers better and improve their conditions and this won't be an issue.
All you need to do is listen to what Lavrov and Putin say to see the real cause of this war: Russian fascist imperialism. Whatever we said or did, they would have made a play for Ukraine or another state. Because that's their world view.
When asked which would be a better Prime Minister between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, Starmer (43%, +1) leads Sunak (33%, +1) by ten points. 24% (-2) say they don’t know.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-red-wall-voting-intention-23-january-2023/
It also might be the nighttime overtime rate but I can’t be bothered to hunt that far.
The argument is really about how fast that trend would have happened anyway, and whether the economic shock of Brexit was worth it.
Labour’s slogan:
Do you want to vote for somebody whose dad made massive tools of poor quality
Or Keir Starmer?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/06/avocado-staff-tears-working-for-the-tories-scandals-employment-laws