LAB moves to biggest R&W lead since Sunak became PM – politicalbetting.com
LAB moves to biggest R&W lead since Sunak became PM – politicalbetting.com
Even though there is a big difference in the polling lead from the two surveys out this afternoon the message is the same – the Tories have a mountain to climb if they are to get into striking distance from LAB at the general election.
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However - I guess it's welcome back Mr Smithson! You seem to have survived the peril
(edit: I'll settle for a failed first)
(edit2: seems you were already resurrected)
What I think about, when I think about Stuart and Scotland.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1622652712620785666?s=61&t=mUSTkL_Bxoiy_fQ7CQU1bQ
Suppliers competing for lucrative prize will rely on 'interoperability' of existing work from US spy-tech firm
https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/06/nhs_palantir_data_platform/
A government thumb on the scale to favour the American firm.
(note, it's a very long read.)
This @ryangrim story is insane. I have a cameo because I happened to interview Oren Miller in 2018, total straight arrow, cared only about good government, now a political prisoner for daring to challenge the creepy Villages-Republican-industrial complex.
https://twitter.com/MikeGrunwald/status/1622580900012646401
From a domestic US point of view, he sounds much scarier than Trump, as he's organised and knows how to work the levers of power.
Delta is usually the best card in its hand, which makes it a very bad hand. R&W is a bit more middle-of-the-road, so 26 points is pretty terrible.
We are still 20 months out from a GE but these are exactly the sort of figures I would expect if we are on course for a LabMaj. There seems to be a significant shift in Scotland too which is not going to help Sunak one bit.
I think we can safely rule out another Conservative Government. We cannot rule out a Labour landslide.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
He’s afraid of his own shadow.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
And whilst that can be turned around, the clock is ticking.
One way it’s different is the last point they could hold out in 97 was June, and they did, like Mr Mcawber - this time the last point is campaigning over Christmas. This time they need to use next years Conference and/or autumn budget statement for a “here’s some goodies, don’t let Labour wreck the green shoots of recovery and chance for more goodies” election.
It helps facilitate tactical voting.
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
Right now, no way we can just say 'Oops, sorry; didn't mean it.'
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
We also need to think of the 64 and 66 example, if Labour have handful majority, they can call another in just two or three years if confident of getting a working majority. I know HY and others will say no chance, look what happened to May. But it worked in 66. And the logic is when you have small majority, fringe groupings in your parliamentary party get too much attention and influence.
So 2024 could be a stepping stone election for Starmer, if considering a bet on timing of election after next.
Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
Then after a few years ... count me in.
It would be foolish to assume that the trend will continue just because it exists, but the factors behind it bear examination. The fact that the trend is there does make it harder to argue that time is on Sunak's side.
What we are seeing at the moment is I think a continued fading away of an initial Sunak honeymoon effect, combined with a gradual worsening of cost of living pressures (eg. a steady drip of mortgage renewals) and a dawning realisation that Sunak is not the fresh upright new broom he purported to be.
Anyway 'leans' don't matter, as long as they are consistent. As Wilf and others have indicated, you need to look at the trend shown by each pollster. Currently that's pretty easy. They all seem to be saying the same thing, all very much along the lines of the Government being up Shit Creek in a leaky boat without a paddle.
Actually delta doesn’t move much at all, is that 3 29s and 1 30 from the last 4?
England's Chariot Repair Union demands better rates as workload goes thru the roof, Sunak ignores workers demands.
https://twitter.com/hairyangus/status/1622664585051348993?s=46&t=Jmn8k3QpjUoe23wK1EeMsg
But a lot of the things that Brexit backers think will be a permanent roadblock (the attitude of the EU, the need for freedom of movement- thanks Prof Goodwin for confirming that) will likely turn out to be no such thing in a decade or so, if that turns out to be the mind of the country. In the meantime, Starmer will begin the long process of killing Brexit by a thousand cuts.
It's the law. It's in the Treaty. The EU is a collection of laws. Sorry to burst your bubble but we can't just click our fingers and rejoin. We have to apply like every other country. Last time that took over a decade. It's going to be at least 20 years, probably more like 30, before we're back, if ever.
In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
Even Delta this time has a growing gap
And yet.
The goatee moustache universe, where remain won, has seen the last six years of strife as the EU question was not, in fact settled, by the remain 52:48 leave result. The agonies of covid and wrangling over the vaccines etc has led to an ever more poisoned atmosphere.
Rejoin on the exact old terms would almost certainly fly, but why would they offer that?
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/fresh-eggs/sainsburys-free-range-woodland-large-eggs-x6
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-fresh-extra-large-whole-chicken-approx-23kg-
Where do you shop?
What really screwed pubs was... the ending of ripoffs.
In the Goode Olde Days, the shops sold beer at prices not dissimilar to pub prices. Because they could. Big profits.
When the supermarkets came in, they drove down the prices in competition wars, eating into the percentage profit for market share. The price of beer in the shops fell in real terms.
In the pubs, it couldn't fall like that.
My point is that if you were paying £4 for a lager last year you're probably paying over £5 now. Ditto eggs - I was paying £1.29 for six free range in 2021, and while there are some brands priced in the 1.70ish range, they're invariably out of stock, and I haven't seen any in stock at that price now in months. But the point is even if you're only paying £1.75 you were paying £1.29 in 2021.
People can see just how much prices have risen on everyday items, plus the huge rises in expenses such as rent or mortgage repayments or energy bills, which make up a substantial proportion of most people's monthly expenses.
At this point, a lot of people are lucky if they can afford a pint, whether it's lager or ale. Living standards are down *a lot* in the last couple of years, and that's on top of being locked up for the two years prior. My guess is the average person feels about 20% poorer than they did at the last election. That's shockingly bad, for any government of any stripe.
But that's a minor annoyance.
Rents up 27% in London:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/06/londons-rental-market-is-in-crisis-heres-how-renters-are-affected.html
And up 15.6% in Manchester, or an average of £117 a month.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/what-now-costs-rent-home-25936813
Add to that the cost of heating and electricity being 3x what it was this time last year, with a lot of people unable to afford heating their homes to a comfortable level. Some of those people haven't had a pay rise since before Covid.
The eggs (and other basics like pasta, bread etc going up similar amounts) are a minor but highly visible annoyance in comparison.
Most people are simply much, much, much worse off than they were at the last election. If you have a lot of disposable income (like most of PB), that's less noticeable. But if you're on a low wage and have spent the last few years barely scraping by, it's one kick in the teeth followed by another kick in the teeth followed by a kick in the balls. Taxes up, prices up, rent up, mortgage up, pay down.
*Ish
It's questionable whether Labour would have done any better given global conditions, and it's just as questionable whether they have any policies now that will improve things now. That will not stop people giving the party in power an almighty kicking, though...
The manifesto promise of return to the EU would open the pandora's can of worms out of which wild Trojan horses would jump through hoops. And would stand a 30% chance of losing the election.
And while I think might be possible in my lifetime, I still think it's pretty unlikely. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something more like the Swiss-EU relationship.
He only switched to antivaxxer support (including appointing Lapado) when he realised it was a weakness of Trump’s. And the Republican core/Fox News demographic eat that stuff up.
(DeSantis is, of course, fully vaccinated himself).
Given that Florida has a bunch of old people, and he’s been discouraging boosters, Florida hasn’t done too well on the deaths front. But that’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make.
Vile man.
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/return-rail-tickets-scrapped-cheaper-mark-harper-plans/
Element of trolling in the headline I think
I'm not sure why you can't see this. I would expect those who want the Tories to win to be seducing Starmer into re-opening Brexit wounds, not Labour supporters.
The only useful thing that Liz Truss achieved was to scrap his Health and Social Care Levy, but something similar will probably be proposed sooner rather than later, because the grey vote is enormous and all the politicians are shit scared of it. They need to pay for elderly healthcare and elderly social care and the fucking triple lock; they daren't tax the old more to pay for it and they daren't tax assets (i.e., primarily, houses) more, either; so they're just going to go back to the well of income tax and national insurance, over and over and over again.
Come the election, Labour will tell the working age population that they must sacrifice more of their pay packets to save Our Beloved NHS - both through direct increases in funding for hospitals, and through more money to subsidise elderly social care, so as to ease the burden of geriatric demand upon said hospitals. Nobody wants to suffer the same fate as Theresa May did in 2019 by actually asking better-off oldies to cough up more themselves, so they won't.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
The Labour shape is a broadening smile. The Tory shape is a topless lady leaning over the side of a bed.
Even if you cannot see these shapes someone with my trained psephological eye can see, you do know they’re there and exactly what they mean don’t you?
A quick perusal of Messrs Redfield & Wilton's entrails and the first observation is the 2019 Conservative vote now splits 47% Loyal, 21% Don't Know, 18% Labour, 7% Reform and 5% LD. That immediately suggests the fall in the Conservative share is driven by a further drift of former supporters to the Don't Know column.
That's among all excluding the Won't Votes. The Party VI share among the same group has Labour on 41%, the Conservatives on 20% and the Don't Knows on 18% ahead.
Also worth mentioning the 2019 Conservative Don't Knows represent 46% of all Don't Knows with the second group at about 22% people who say they didn't vote last time.
Stripping out the Don't Knows and the headline figure is 50-24 which represents a 19% swing from Conservative to Labour. Among those over 65, Labour leads by 40 to 33 which is a swing of 27% since 2019, scarcely believable.
Looking at England as a whole, Labour leads 51-25 with the LDs on 11%. That's a 19.5% swing from Labour to Conservative - it's also an 10.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
19.5% brings us to Harwich & Essex North with its 20,000 majority which would fall on that swing. It's the 275th most vulnerable Conservative seat which would imply a rump of around 100 Conservative seats were tonight's Redfield & Wilton figures to be repeated at an election.
The problem is rather, being taken seriously.