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LAB moves to biggest R&W lead since Sunak became PM – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2023 in General
imageLAB moves to biggest R&W lead since Sunak became PM – politicalbetting.com

Even though there is a big difference in the polling lead from the two surveys out this afternoon the message is the same – the Tories have a mountain to climb if they are to get into striking distance from LAB at the general election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

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  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    edited February 2023
    First, and I know this precisely because you've broken up any response to my simple question in the last thread!

    However - I guess it's welcome back Mr Smithson! You seem to have survived the peril :)

    (edit: I'll settle for a failed first)

    (edit2: seems you were already resurrected)

  • What I think about, when I think about Stuart and Scotland.
  • Blue Tories, Red Tories, same shit.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,702
    The Liz Truss interview. She may have got a few things wrong

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1622652712620785666?s=61&t=mUSTkL_Bxoiy_fQ7CQU1bQ
  • UK health minister confirms data platform worth £480m will replicate Palantir dashboards
    Suppliers competing for lucrative prize will rely on 'interoperability' of existing work from US spy-tech firm

    https://www.theregister.com/2023/02/06/nhs_palantir_data_platform/

    A government thumb on the scale to favour the American firm.
  • There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571
    edited February 2023
    If the linked story is accurate (it is the Intercept, but it seems to be pretty well documented), then it's more stuff about DeSantis and Florida politics that makes him sound a very dangerous possible President.
    (note, it's a very long read.)

    This @ryangrim story is insane. I have a cameo because I happened to interview Oren Miller in 2018, total straight arrow, cared only about good government, now a political prisoner for daring to challenge the creepy Villages-Republican-industrial complex.
    https://twitter.com/MikeGrunwald/status/1622580900012646401

    From a domestic US point of view, he sounds much scarier than Trump, as he's organised and knows how to work the levers of power.
  • There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    They used to be thought to have a slight Tory lean but not any more.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    They used to be thought to have a slight Tory lean but not any more.
    I'm not sure it's really possible to assess their lean until they've been tested by a general election.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    As some of us have been saying for months. But your chosen example would be foolish, he can't guarantee to rejoin the EU in all circumstances.
  • There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    They used to be thought to have a slight Tory lean but not any more.
    The value of looking at a data series from one pollster only is that, barring any change in methodology, the trend can be read independently of any house effects, whether it is a Tory or Labour lean. That said, when you look at the trend in the overall wikipedia graph referenced on the top right "Next UK GE Polling" the same trend is still pretty clear.
  • Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    He doesn’t.

    He’s afraid of his own shadow.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might be harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to its end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
  • There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    You don't have to squint too hard to draw a trendline back to summer '21 and the peak of the vaccine bounce and the Boris blimp. There have been wobbles up (start of the war, end of Truss) and down (Partygate, the bonkers budget) but also a fairly steady 1 percent per month decline underlying that.

    And whilst that can be turned around, the clock is ticking.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    I miss your dodgy close-ups of a tiny extract from the polling data showing that the Tories are closing the gap….
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Taz said:

    The Liz Truss interview. She may have got a few things wrong

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1622652712620785666?s=61&t=mUSTkL_Bxoiy_fQ7CQU1bQ

    Way beyond parody...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    “In my view this is like 1997”

    One way it’s different is the last point they could hold out in 97 was June, and they did, like Mr Mcawber - this time the last point is campaigning over Christmas. This time they need to use next years Conference and/or autumn budget statement for a “here’s some goodies, don’t let Labour wreck the green shoots of recovery and chance for more goodies” election.
  • DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    We have to be out for a long time before we can even contemplate rejoining. We're maybe talking a generation or more. Then it might make some sense, and have some plausibilty.

    Right now, no way we can just say 'Oops, sorry; didn't mean it.'
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited February 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
  • The Red Tory launchpad. Spot the flaw.


  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    It's also the one and only move Starmer could make to put the GE back in play. He'll not be even thinking about it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Dreadful polls for the Government.

    Delta is usually the best card in its hand, which makes it a very bad hand. R&W is a bit more middle-of-the-road, so 26 points is pretty terrible.

    We are still 20 months out from a GE but these are exactly the sort of figures I would expect if we are on course for a LabMaj. There seems to be a significant shift in Scotland too which is not going to help Sunak one bit.

    I think we can safely rule out another Conservative Government. We cannot rule out a Labour landslide.

    It still feels weird though, predicting with serious confidence , a party to gain a hundred seats at an election?

    We also need to think of the 64 and 66 example, if Labour have handful majority, they can call another in just two or three years if confident of getting a working majority. I know HY and others will say no chance, look what happened to May. But it worked in 66. And the logic is when you have small majority, fringe groupings in your parliamentary party get too much attention and influence.

    So 2024 could be a stepping stone election for Starmer, if considering a bet on timing of election after next.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,849
    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Let's just win this next GE first, Roger. The Tories are in a deep dark hole. No rope ladders.

    Then after a few years ... count me in.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    edited February 2023

    There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    You don't have to squint too hard to draw a trendline back to summer '21 and the peak of the vaccine bounce and the Boris blimp. There have been wobbles up (start of the war, end of Truss) and down (Partygate, the bonkers budget) but also a fairly steady 1 percent per month decline underlying that.

    And whilst that can be turned around, the clock is ticking.
    True.

    It would be foolish to assume that the trend will continue just because it exists, but the factors behind it bear examination. The fact that the trend is there does make it harder to argue that time is on Sunak's side.

    What we are seeing at the moment is I think a continued fading away of an initial Sunak honeymoon effect, combined with a gradual worsening of cost of living pressures (eg. a steady drip of mortgage renewals) and a dawning realisation that Sunak is not the fresh upright new broom he purported to be.
  • Driver said:

    There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    They used to be thought to have a slight Tory lean but not any more.
    I'm not sure it's really possible to assess their lean until they've been tested by a general election.
    I meant lean relative to other pollsters. Of course they could all be wrong. Only a GE will determine that.

    Anyway 'leans' don't matter, as long as they are consistent. As Wilf and others have indicated, you need to look at the trend shown by each pollster. Currently that's pretty easy. They all seem to be saying the same thing, all very much along the lines of the Government being up Shit Creek in a leaky boat without a paddle.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    The Red Tory launchpad. Spot the flaw.


    That is by some distance the least funny attempt at humour I have seen in nearly 30 years of being a regular internet user. Seriously. Take a long hard look at yourself.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    I miss your dodgy close-ups of a tiny extract from the polling data showing that the Tories are closing the gap….
    Well the Tory % hasn’t dropped this time with Delta 😃 Not sure they are chinking glasses over that tonight in CCHQ.

    Actually delta doesn’t move much at all, is that 3 29s and 1 30 from the last 4?

  • What I think about, when I think about Stuart and Scotland.

    Spooky, that's more or less what I think about when I think about so many PBers and Scotland.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    I was reading in the last few weeks that if the Scots gained independence they could rejoin on a 'nod'. I think I read it here. If untrue it would be a silly own goal by the EU.
  • Breaking :
    England's Chariot Repair Union demands better rates as workload goes thru the roof, Sunak ignores workers demands.


    https://twitter.com/hairyangus/status/1622664585051348993?s=46&t=Jmn8k3QpjUoe23wK1EeMsg
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    The EU ignores its own rules whenever it suits them, that's one reason we left in the first place...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    edited February 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    The UK probably has the advantage that it can tick the acession boxes rather more efficiently than those countries. Think of it like restoring a house that Johnson did some dubious refurbishments to; the underlying building is mostly still sound, whereas Ukraine and Albania need to do some serious and seriously messy works to their electrics and waste water piping.

    But a lot of the things that Brexit backers think will be a permanent roadblock (the attitude of the EU, the need for freedom of movement- thanks Prof Goodwin for confirming that) will likely turn out to be no such thing in a decade or so, if that turns out to be the mind of the country. In the meantime, Starmer will begin the long process of killing Brexit by a thousand cuts.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    I was reading in the last few weeks that if the Scots gained independence they could rejoin on a 'nod'. I think I read it here. If untrue it would be a silly own goal by the EU.
    So you think PB and commentary you read on the internet supercedes the text of the Treaty on European Union?

    It's the law. It's in the Treaty. The EU is a collection of laws. Sorry to burst your bubble but we can't just click our fingers and rejoin. We have to apply like every other country. Last time that took over a decade. It's going to be at least 20 years, probably more like 30, before we're back, if ever.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,089

    There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    They used to be thought to have a slight Tory lean but not any more.
    What if they still *do* have a slight Tory lean?
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    The UK probably has the advantage that it can tick the acession boxes rather more efficiently than those countries. Think of it like restoring a house that Johnson did some dubious refurbishments to; the underlying building is mostly still sound, whereas Ukraine and Albania need to do some serious and seriously messy works to their electrics and waste water piping.

    But a lot of the things that Brexit backers think will be a permanent roadblock (the attitude of the EU, the need for freedom movement- thanks Prof Goodwin for confirming that) will likely turn out to be no such thing in a decade or so, if that turns out to be the mind of the country. In the meantime, Starmer will begin the long process of killing Brexit by a thousand cuts.
    Will one of those cuts be a cut of the attitude of "reversing Brexit" and replacing it with an attitde of actually trying to sell rejoining?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.

    In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Well yes because lager drinkers are low iq else they wouldnt be drinking lager
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Waitrose (I know) have had eggs all along. There is no shortage of eggs. There is a dispute about farm gate prices such that some stores have issues (locally Morrisons, for instance).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Also a vastly better drink…
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    mwadams said:

    There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    They used to be thought to have a slight Tory lean but not any more.
    What if they still *do* have a slight Tory lean?
    Then they would be called delta I think. 29% was the last swing back Opinium, delta produce those without claiming swingback built in.

    Even Delta this time has a growing gap
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    Nothing is impossible. We are fully aligned at the moment as there has been no divergence. We are also a significant market/economy. It’s in both parties interests.

    And yet.

    The goatee moustache universe, where remain won, has seen the last six years of strife as the EU question was not, in fact settled, by the remain 52:48 leave result. The agonies of covid and wrangling over the vaccines etc has led to an ever more poisoned atmosphere.

    Rejoin on the exact old terms would almost certainly fly, but why would they offer that?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056
    Driver said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    The UK probably has the advantage that it can tick the acession boxes rather more efficiently than those countries. Think of it like restoring a house that Johnson did some dubious refurbishments to; the underlying building is mostly still sound, whereas Ukraine and Albania need to do some serious and seriously messy works to their electrics and waste water piping.

    But a lot of the things that Brexit backers think will be a permanent roadblock (the attitude of the EU, the need for freedom movement- thanks Prof Goodwin for confirming that) will likely turn out to be no such thing in a decade or so, if that turns out to be the mind of the country. In the meantime, Starmer will begin the long process of killing Brexit by a thousand cuts.
    Will one of those cuts be a cut of the attitude of "reversing Brexit" and replacing it with an attitde of actually trying to sell rejoining?
    Not next GE from Starmer, but both LDs and Greens are explicitly Rejoin parties, as are SNP etc
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,613
    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    Hmmm

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/fresh-eggs/sainsburys-free-range-woodland-large-eggs-x6

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-fresh-extra-large-whole-chicken-approx-23kg-

    Where do you shop?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    Hmmm

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/fresh-eggs/sainsburys-free-range-woodland-large-eggs-x6

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-fresh-extra-large-whole-chicken-approx-23kg-

    Where do you shop?
    Probably m & s he seems a bit posh
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,613

    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Also a vastly better drink…
    Prices in pubs are a function of the cost of labour and property costs. The price of beer is almost incidental.

    What really screwed pubs was... the ending of ripoffs.

    In the Goode Olde Days, the shops sold beer at prices not dissimilar to pub prices. Because they could. Big profits.

    When the supermarkets came in, they drove down the prices in competition wars, eating into the percentage profit for market share. The price of beer in the shops fell in real terms.

    In the pubs, it couldn't fall like that.
  • Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.

    In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
    Also a big relief that all those applauding the proposed NI deal would presumably be supporting similar for an Indy Scotland in the EU. They would, right?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911
    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Well yes because lager drinkers are low iq else they wouldnt be drinking lager
    So what's a high IQ drink, then? Advocaat? De gustibus non est disputandum...

    My point is that if you were paying £4 for a lager last year you're probably paying over £5 now. Ditto eggs - I was paying £1.29 for six free range in 2021, and while there are some brands priced in the 1.70ish range, they're invariably out of stock, and I haven't seen any in stock at that price now in months. But the point is even if you're only paying £1.75 you were paying £1.29 in 2021.

    People can see just how much prices have risen on everyday items, plus the huge rises in expenses such as rent or mortgage repayments or energy bills, which make up a substantial proportion of most people's monthly expenses.

    At this point, a lot of people are lucky if they can afford a pint, whether it's lager or ale. Living standards are down *a lot* in the last couple of years, and that's on top of being locked up for the two years prior. My guess is the average person feels about 20% poorer than they did at the last election. That's shockingly bad, for any government of any stripe.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,760
    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    I was reading in the last few weeks that if the Scots gained independence they could rejoin on a 'nod'. I think I read it here. If untrue it would be a silly own goal by the EU.
    It would be easier to go through the qualification (corruption standards, fee democracy, not a single party state etc). But there’s still the accession treaty to negotiate unless the SNP would accept the EU’s draft as written.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    I was reading in the last few weeks that if the Scots gained independence they could rejoin on a 'nod'. I think I read it here. If untrue it would be a silly own goal by the EU.
    It would be easier to go through the qualification (corruption standards, fee democracy, not a single party state etc). But there’s still the accession treaty to negotiate unless the SNP would accept the EU’s draft as written.
    Surely depends on which currency they are using post breakup?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Well yes because lager drinkers are low iq else they wouldnt be drinking lager
    So what's a high IQ drink, then? Advocaat? De gustibus non est disputandum...

    My point is that if you were paying £4 for a lager last year you're probably paying over £5 now. Ditto eggs - I was paying £1.29 for six free range in 2021, and while there are some brands priced in the 1.70ish range, they're invariably out of stock, and I haven't seen any in stock at that price now in months. But the point is even if you're only paying £1.75 you were paying £1.29 in 2021.

    People can see just how much prices have risen on everyday items, plus the huge rises in expenses such as rent or mortgage repayments or energy bills, which make up a substantial proportion of most people's monthly expenses.

    At this point, a lot of people are lucky if they can afford a pint, whether it's lager or ale. Living standards are down *a lot* in the last couple of years, and that's on top of being locked up for the two years prior. My guess is the average person feels about 20% poorer than they did at the last election. That's shockingly bad, for any government of any stripe.
    My point was those paying high prices for lager are stupid and low iq. Most pub lager is served so cold you cant even taste it. Drink bitter which actually has some taste though some awful ones out there but you pay much less when you find a good one you enjoy rather than ice cold gnats urine
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,613
    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    Hmmm

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/fresh-eggs/sainsburys-free-range-woodland-large-eggs-x6

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-fresh-extra-large-whole-chicken-approx-23kg-

    Where do you shop?
    Probably m & s he seems a bit posh
    https://www.ocado.com/products/m-s-large-free-range-eggs-505041011


  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited February 2023
    Driver said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    As some of us have been saying for months. But your chosen example would be foolish, he can't guarantee to rejoin the EU in all circumstances.
    Blair spent a large part of his first term bemoaning that he couldn't get things done which he hoped he'd be able to. For reasons of tempting fate he didn't seem to believe what the polls were telling us. He could have done anything he wanted and still got a landslide. The advantage of choosing the EU is that it's one of the few things that would have an immediate and obvious cathartic effect. If it doesn't succeed at least it shows a progressive agenda which at the moment we're not seeing. When the Tories are kicked out everyone will breathe a sigh of relief* and he needs to hit the ground running. (*Except for Rabbit of course!)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,760
    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Well yes because lager drinkers are low iq else they wouldnt be drinking lager
    So what's a high IQ drink, then? Advocaat? De gustibus non est disputandum...

    My point is that if you were paying £4 for a lager last year you're probably paying over £5 now. Ditto eggs - I was paying £1.29 for six free range in 2021, and while there are some brands priced in the 1.70ish range, they're invariably out of stock, and I haven't seen any in stock at that price now in months. But the point is even if you're only paying £1.75 you were paying £1.29 in 2021.

    People can see just how much prices have risen on everyday items, plus the huge rises in expenses such as rent or mortgage repayments or energy bills, which make up a substantial proportion of most people's monthly expenses.

    At this point, a lot of people are lucky if they can afford a pint, whether it's lager or ale. Living standards are down *a lot* in the last couple of years, and that's on top of being locked up for the two years prior. My guess is the average person feels about 20% poorer than they did at the last election. That's shockingly bad, for any government of any stripe.
    To be fair to the government it’s not really their fault. It won’t stop the voters giving them a good hard kicking
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    Hmmm

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/fresh-eggs/sainsburys-free-range-woodland-large-eggs-x6

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-fresh-extra-large-whole-chicken-approx-23kg-

    Where do you shop?
    Probably m & s he seems a bit posh
    https://www.ocado.com/products/m-s-large-free-range-eggs-505041011


    Your point being? Ocado is also the posh end. Frankly if he chooses eggs that cost a pound more for 6 even though he probably couldn't tell the difference well thats his problem
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,760

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    I was reading in the last few weeks that if the Scots gained independence they could rejoin on a 'nod'. I think I read it here. If untrue it would be a silly own goal by the EU.
    It would be easier to go through the qualification (corruption standards, fee democracy, not a single party state etc). But there’s still the accession treaty to negotiate unless the SNP would accept the EU’s draft as written.
    Surely depends on which currency they are using post breakup?
    They’d have to switch to the Euro to go through on the nod
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    Hmmm

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/fresh-eggs/sainsburys-free-range-woodland-large-eggs-x6

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-fresh-extra-large-whole-chicken-approx-23kg-

    Where do you shop?
    Haven't seen eggs at that price at my local sainsburys in months - they're always out of stock, with only higher priced alternatives actually available for sale on the day.

    But that's a minor annoyance.

    Rents up 27% in London:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/06/londons-rental-market-is-in-crisis-heres-how-renters-are-affected.html

    And up 15.6% in Manchester, or an average of £117 a month.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/what-now-costs-rent-home-25936813

    Add to that the cost of heating and electricity being 3x what it was this time last year, with a lot of people unable to afford heating their homes to a comfortable level. Some of those people haven't had a pay rise since before Covid.

    The eggs (and other basics like pasta, bread etc going up similar amounts) are a minor but highly visible annoyance in comparison.

    Most people are simply much, much, much worse off than they were at the last election. If you have a lot of disposable income (like most of PB), that's less noticeable. But if you're on a low wage and have spent the last few years barely scraping by, it's one kick in the teeth followed by another kick in the teeth followed by a kick in the balls. Taxes up, prices up, rent up, mortgage up, pay down.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,393

    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Also a vastly better drink…
    Prices in pubs are a function of the cost of labour and property costs. The price of beer is almost incidental.

    What really screwed pubs was... the ending of ripoffs.

    In the Goode Olde Days, the shops sold beer at prices not dissimilar to pub prices. Because they could. Big profits.

    When the supermarkets came in, they drove down the prices in competition wars, eating into the percentage profit for market share. The price of beer in the shops fell in real terms.

    In the pubs, it couldn't fall like that.
    Unless you are Spoons. In which case their business model allows them to charge half* the price of every other pub.

    *Ish
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.

    Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
    Well yes because lager drinkers are low iq else they wouldnt be drinking lager
    So what's a high IQ drink, then? Advocaat? De gustibus non est disputandum...

    My point is that if you were paying £4 for a lager last year you're probably paying over £5 now. Ditto eggs - I was paying £1.29 for six free range in 2021, and while there are some brands priced in the 1.70ish range, they're invariably out of stock, and I haven't seen any in stock at that price now in months. But the point is even if you're only paying £1.75 you were paying £1.29 in 2021.

    People can see just how much prices have risen on everyday items, plus the huge rises in expenses such as rent or mortgage repayments or energy bills, which make up a substantial proportion of most people's monthly expenses.

    At this point, a lot of people are lucky if they can afford a pint, whether it's lager or ale. Living standards are down *a lot* in the last couple of years, and that's on top of being locked up for the two years prior. My guess is the average person feels about 20% poorer than they did at the last election. That's shockingly bad, for any government of any stripe.
    To be fair to the government it’s not really their fault. It won’t stop the voters giving them a good hard kicking
    Very true.

    It's questionable whether Labour would have done any better given global conditions, and it's just as questionable whether they have any policies now that will improve things now. That will not stop people giving the party in power an almighty kicking, though...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,878

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    I was reading in the last few weeks that if the Scots gained independence they could rejoin on a 'nod'. I think I read it here. If untrue it would be a silly own goal by the EU.
    It would be easier to go through the qualification (corruption standards, fee democracy, not a single party state etc). But there’s still the accession treaty to negotiate unless the SNP would accept the EU’s draft as written.
    Surely depends on which currency they are using post breakup?
    They’d have to switch to the Euro to go through on the nod
    Raising the spectacle of Greek style diktat on monetary policy.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    Hmmm

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/fresh-eggs/sainsburys-free-range-woodland-large-eggs-x6

    https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/sainsburys-british-fresh-extra-large-whole-chicken-approx-23kg-

    Where do you shop?
    Haven't seen eggs at that price at my local sainsburys in months - they're always out of stock, with only higher priced alternatives actually available for sale on the day.

    But that's a minor annoyance.

    Rents up 27% in London:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/06/londons-rental-market-is-in-crisis-heres-how-renters-are-affected.html

    And up 15.6% in Manchester, or an average of £117 a month.

    https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/what-now-costs-rent-home-25936813

    Add to that the cost of heating and electricity being 3x what it was this time last year, with a lot of people unable to afford heating their homes to a comfortable level. Some of those people haven't had a pay rise since before Covid.

    The eggs (and other basics like pasta, bread etc going up similar amounts) are a minor but highly visible annoyance in comparison.

    Most people are simply much, much, much worse off than they were at the last election. If you have a lot of disposable income (like most of PB), that's less noticeable. But if you're on a low wage and have spent the last few years barely scraping by, it's one kick in the teeth followed by another kick in the teeth followed by a kick in the balls. Taxes up, prices up, rent up, mortgage up, pay down.
    yet your party I believe lds is always in favour of taking more out of their pocket in tax to fund the latest shibboleth whether education or nhs or potholes. When you dont want to rob the poor come back and tell us
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,342
    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Caution still required. What cannot, and should not, be known is if the manifesto will promise a general review of 'how best to run Brexit' under cover of which it is perfectly consistent to decide once in government to seek to join EEA/EFTA, absolutely consistent with the text of the referendum.

    The manifesto promise of return to the EU would open the pandora's can of worms out of which wild Trojan horses would jump through hoops. And would stand a 30% chance of losing the election.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,256
    kyf_100 said:



    So what's a high IQ drink, then?

    It's Brains you want
  • Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Once again showing just how deluded you are.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    Selebian said:

    kyf_100 said:



    So what's a high IQ drink, then?

    It's Brains you want
    Any drink you are buying because it tastes good rather than fashionable. I spent an enjoyable night once with a stella artois drink expounding why it tasted so much better while each time I bought a round he got a pint of hofmeister in a stella glass and saving myself a pound each time.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and the recovery because Sunak isn't Truss, but the downward trend has since resumed on exactly the same trend line as before.

    They used to be thought to have a slight Tory lean but not any more.
    The value of looking at a data series from one pollster only is that, barring any change in methodology, the trend can be read independently of any house effects, whether it is a Tory or Labour lean. That said, when you look at the trend in the overall wikipedia graph referenced on the top right "Next UK GE Polling" the same trend is still pretty clear.
    Yup - a clear trend since the GE


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,767

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    We have to be out for a long time before we can even contemplate rejoining. We're maybe talking a generation or more. Then it might make some sense, and have some plausibilty.

    Right now, no way we can just say 'Oops, sorry; didn't mean it.'
    The only way the UK could rejoin would be via EEA/EFTA.

    And while I think might be possible in my lifetime, I still think it's pretty unlikely. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see something more like the Swiss-EU relationship.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Once again showing just how deluded you are.
    The more roger whines the more I am convinced by brexit
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Nigelb said:

    If the linked story is accurate (it is the Intercept, but it seems to be pretty well documented), then it's more stuff about DeSantis and Florida politics that makes him sound a very dangerous possible President.
    (note, it's a very long read.)

    This @ryangrim story is insane. I have a cameo because I happened to interview Oren Miller in 2018, total straight arrow, cared only about good government, now a political prisoner for daring to challenge the creepy Villages-Republican-industrial complex.
    https://twitter.com/MikeGrunwald/status/1622580900012646401

    From a domestic US point of view, he sounds much scarier than Trump, as he's organised and knows how to work the levers of power.

    Yeah. Ruthlessly amoral, in my opinion.
    He only switched to antivaxxer support (including appointing Lapado) when he realised it was a weakness of Trump’s. And the Republican core/Fox News demographic eat that stuff up.
    (DeSantis is, of course, fully vaccinated himself).
    Given that Florida has a bunch of old people, and he’s been discouraging boosters, Florida hasn’t done too well on the deaths front. But that’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make.
    Vile man.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,767
    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:

    29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for

    Just watching the Tory %:

    2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.

    February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.

    I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%

    Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
    Thankfully we have a veto on all those eu countries joining the uk
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
    There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,767
    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.

  • Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
    Thankfully we have a veto on all those eu countries joining the uk
    "Return rail tickets will be scrapped under plan to bring UK in line with other European countries"

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/return-rail-tickets-scrapped-cheaper-mark-harper-plans/

    Element of trolling in the headline I think
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.

    In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
    Also a big relief that all those applauding the proposed NI deal would presumably be supporting similar for an Indy Scotland in the EU. They would, right?
    Why would Scotland want to be in the U.K. internal market?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.

    In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
    Also a big relief that all those applauding the proposed NI deal would presumably be supporting similar for an Indy Scotland in the EU. They would, right?
    Why would Scotland want to be in the U.K. internal market?
    Because they sell us more stuff than they do the eu...merely a thought
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,459
    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Starmer's not going to listen to you, and he's right not to. Re-running the Brexit debate is the single biggest risk to a Labour victory in 2024. He can be radical in other areas, but he shouldn't touch Brexit with a bargepole before the next GE.

    I'm not sure why you can't see this. I would expect those who want the Tories to win to be seducing Starmer into re-opening Brexit wounds, not Labour supporters.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,087
    Pagan2 said:

    yet your party I believe lds is always in favour of taking more out of their pocket in tax to fund the latest shibboleth whether education or nhs or potholes. When you dont want to rob the poor come back and tell us

    What I fear we are going to get out of Labour is a similar solution to our problems to that proposed by Sunak when he was Chancellor: endless raids on earned incomes to subsidise the lifestyles of the middle class aged.

    The only useful thing that Liz Truss achieved was to scrap his Health and Social Care Levy, but something similar will probably be proposed sooner rather than later, because the grey vote is enormous and all the politicians are shit scared of it. They need to pay for elderly healthcare and elderly social care and the fucking triple lock; they daren't tax the old more to pay for it and they daren't tax assets (i.e., primarily, houses) more, either; so they're just going to go back to the well of income tax and national insurance, over and over and over again.

    Come the election, Labour will tell the working age population that they must sacrifice more of their pay packets to save Our Beloved NHS - both through direct increases in funding for hospitals, and through more money to subsidise elderly social care, so as to ease the burden of geriatric demand upon said hospitals. Nobody wants to suffer the same fate as Theresa May did in 2019 by actually asking better-off oldies to cough up more themselves, so they won't.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.

    I don't know where people pay these prices frankly, we had the 9.90 for 500g of blueberries yesterday with people pointing out you could get them at 3.25 from tesco's. Some just seem to just find the highest they can then post it as evidence brexit is bad
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Pagan2 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.

    In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
    Also a big relief that all those applauding the proposed NI deal would presumably be supporting similar for an Indy Scotland in the EU. They would, right?
    Why would Scotland want to be in the U.K. internal market?
    Because they sell us more stuff than they do the eu...merely a thought
    Yes but they would have to allow the English over the border without checks. I’m reliably informed that Dickson, TUD and Malc represent mainstream Scots opinion and they certainty would not be having any more of those filthy nasty Saxons into their fair land. Stu especially wants that wall built ASAP.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    HYUFD said:

    29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for

    The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.

    Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.

    But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    Barnier disagrees.....

    But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
    Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -

    "If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."

    Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.

    Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
    There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
    Thankfully we have a veto on all those eu countries joining the uk
    "Return rail tickets will be scrapped under plan to bring UK in line with other European countries"

    https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/return-rail-tickets-scrapped-cheaper-mark-harper-plans/

    Element of trolling in the headline I think
    Well the europhiles can hardly complain about us aligning with the EU surely and certainly wont be whinging it doubles prices. Its the same as the australian trade deal...remainers..."oh but british farmers"....when in the EU the mercosur trade deal which would have the same effect from almost the same distance..."Oh isnt it wonderful we get a new eu trade deal"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    What is the end of the graph show now saying to us, in its shapes?

    The Labour shape is a broadening smile. The Tory shape is a topless lady leaning over the side of a bed.




    Even if you cannot see these shapes someone with my trained psephological eye can see, you do know they’re there and exactly what they mean don’t you?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,741
    Evening all :)

    A quick perusal of Messrs Redfield & Wilton's entrails and the first observation is the 2019 Conservative vote now splits 47% Loyal, 21% Don't Know, 18% Labour, 7% Reform and 5% LD. That immediately suggests the fall in the Conservative share is driven by a further drift of former supporters to the Don't Know column.

    That's among all excluding the Won't Votes. The Party VI share among the same group has Labour on 41%, the Conservatives on 20% and the Don't Knows on 18% ahead.

    Also worth mentioning the 2019 Conservative Don't Knows represent 46% of all Don't Knows with the second group at about 22% people who say they didn't vote last time.

    Stripping out the Don't Knows and the headline figure is 50-24 which represents a 19% swing from Conservative to Labour. Among those over 65, Labour leads by 40 to 33 which is a swing of 27% since 2019, scarcely believable.

    Looking at England as a whole, Labour leads 51-25 with the LDs on 11%. That's a 19.5% swing from Labour to Conservative - it's also an 10.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    19.5% brings us to Harwich & Essex North with its 20,000 majority which would fall on that swing. It's the 275th most vulnerable Conservative seat which would imply a rump of around 100 Conservative seats were tonight's Redfield & Wilton figures to be repeated at an election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    DougSeal said:

    Roger said:

    I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.

    A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.

    Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
    We have to be out for a long time before we can even contemplate rejoining. We're maybe talking a generation or more. Then it might make some sense, and have some plausibilty.

    Right now, no way we can just say 'Oops, sorry; didn't mean it.'
    We could very easily say that now.
    The problem is rather, being taken seriously.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629

    What is the end of the graph show now saying to us, in its shapes?

    The Labour shape is a broadening smile. The Tory shape is a topless lady leaning over the side of a bed.




    Even if you cannot see these shapes someone with my trained psephological eye can see, you do know they’re there and exactly what they mean don’t you?

    They mean you are on some damn good drugs, you should share
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Pagan2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RedfieldWilton: Labour leads by 26%, the largest lead for Labour since Sunak became PM.

    Westminster VI (5 February):

    Labour 50% (… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622641270572154880

    @MoonRabbit please explain!
    As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.

    Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
    What could possibly be going on with the polls?

    Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.

    I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
    I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
    I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.

    I don't know where people pay these prices frankly, we had the 9.90 for 500g of blueberries yesterday with people pointing out you could get them at 3.25 from tesco's. Some just seem to just find the highest they can then post it as evidence brexit is bad
    It's just so transparently confirmation bias.
This discussion has been closed.