I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.
In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
Also a big relief that all those applauding the proposed NI deal would presumably be supporting similar for an Indy Scotland in the EU. They would, right?
Why would Scotland want to be in the U.K. internal market?
I was thinking of us more in the Ireland rather than the NI role. But if you don't want our energy, whisky, foodstuffs etc fair enough.
A quick perusal of Messrs Redfield & Wilton's entrails and the first observation is the 2019 Conservative vote now splits 47% Loyal, 21% Don't Know, 18% Labour, 7% Reform and 5% LD. That immediately suggests the fall in the Conservative share is driven by a further drift of former supporters to the Don't Know column.
That's among all excluding the Won't Votes. The Party VI share among the same group has Labour on 41%, the Conservatives on 20% and the Don't Knows on 18% ahead.
Also worth mentioning the 2019 Conservative Don't Knows represent 46% of all Don't Knows with the second group at about 22% people who say they didn't vote last time.
Stripping out the Don't Knows and the headline figure is 50-24 which represents a 19% swing from Conservative to Labour. Among those over 65, Labour leads by 40 to 33 which is a swing of 27% since 2019, scarcely believable.
Looking at England as a whole, Labour leads 51-25 with the LDs on 11%. That's a 19.5% swing from Labour to Conservative - it's also an 10.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.
19.5% brings us to Harwich & Essex North with its 20,000 majority which would fall on that swing. It's the 275th most vulnerable Conservative seat which would imply a rump of around 100 Conservative seats were tonight's Redfield & Wilton figures to be repeated at an election.
Yes, but Starmer isn't Blair. Agreed. But what if that simply doesn't matter much?
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
I'd love to see the detailed Deltapoll data tables. The one meaningful comparison is looking at the 2019 Conservative vote. Stripping out the Don't Knows (and Deltapoll says nothing about the number), R&W has 60% voting Conservative and 22% Labour while Deltapoll has 68% Conservative and 18% Labour so perhaps the higher Conservative VI stems from that.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.
In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
Also a big relief that all those applauding the proposed NI deal would presumably be supporting similar for an Indy Scotland in the EU. They would, right?
Why would Scotland want to be in the U.K. internal market?
I was thinking of us more in the Ireland rather than the NI role. But if you don't want our energy, whisky, foodstuffs etc fair enough.
You couldn’t take the Ireland role either because Ireland’s in the CTA, requiring freedom of movement from England.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
We have to be out for a long time before we can even contemplate rejoining. We're maybe talking a generation or more. Then it might make some sense, and have some plausibilty.
Right now, no way we can just say 'Oops, sorry; didn't mean it.'
We could very easily say that now. The problem is rather, being taken seriously.
And obviously, it's too early for that.
Time needs to passs before the UK can convincingly say "Sorry about that bloke who said all that stuff. He's being looked after now. We're not him."
The only questions that matter are how much time needs to pass, and what the UK does in the meantime. Because the only way I can see of improving the benefit-cost ratio of Brexit is to dilute it.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
I'd love to see the detailed Deltapoll data tables. The one meaningful comparison is looking at the 2019 Conservative vote. Stripping out the Don't Knows (and Deltapoll says nothing about the number), R&W has 60% voting Conservative and 22% Labour while Deltapoll has 68% Conservative and 18% Labour so perhaps the higher Conservative VI stems from that.
They are very consistent at finding more Tory’s. Last 4 polls 3 29’s and 1 30. Also a 32 in January.
That’s higher than the Opinium swingback goes.
You are right, d/k must be considered Tory still on more than just 2019 voting pattern with this firm? For example, if I asked voter and they said Tory in every election since 92, I would add that group to Tory column even if they said don’t know.
Pollsters have subtly different methodologies for the Kudos of being crowned Champion at the end of the day?
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Yes but the Government supporters on here seriously believe a few tax cuts in spring 2024 will make all the difference. Honestly?
You're quite right by the way - it's both the big things and the little things. There's a sauce I like - used to cost £1.70 now £3.40. I think meat has gone up a lot in price (not just the ludicrous expense of lamb but even chicken which has always been the one of the cheaper meats).
I'm sure the Pound and 99p stores are struggling - our 89p shop closed in the Barking Road. It's a cut throat world in discount retail.
If the linked story is accurate (it is the Intercept, but it seems to be pretty well documented), then it's more stuff about DeSantis and Florida politics that makes him sound a very dangerous possible President. (note, it's a very long read.)
This @ryangrim story is insane. I have a cameo because I happened to interview Oren Miller in 2018, total straight arrow, cared only about good government, now a political prisoner for daring to challenge the creepy Villages-Republican-industrial complex. https://twitter.com/MikeGrunwald/status/1622580900012646401
From a domestic US point of view, he sounds much scarier than Trump, as he's organised and knows how to work the levers of power.
Yeah. Ruthlessly amoral, in my opinion. He only switched to antivaxxer support (including appointing Lapado) when he realised it was a weakness of Trump’s. And the Republican core/Fox News demographic eat that stuff up. (DeSantis is, of course, fully vaccinated himself). Given that Florida has a bunch of old people, and he’s been discouraging boosters, Florida hasn’t done too well on the deaths front. But that’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make. Vile man.
This is going to be like George W Bush isn't it? Hated and called a Dictator but, when Trump came along, he was suddenly the epitome of GOP 'moderation' with the related moans about how the GOP had become more extremist.
Personally, I think Bush was more of a c*** than Trump - the latter didn't start wars unlike the former.
Delta is usually the best card in its hand, which makes it a very bad hand. R&W is a bit more middle-of-the-road, so 26 points is pretty terrible.
We are still 20 months out from a GE but these are exactly the sort of figures I would expect if we are on course for a LabMaj. There seems to be a significant shift in Scotland too which is not going to help Sunak one bit.
I think we can safely rule out another Conservative Government. We cannot rule out a Labour landslide.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
I'm a monetarist, and I think the problem is with the money supply, rather than Brexit, Ukraine or even Covid (though the money printing during Covid is certainly a factor).
But yes, I agree with you. I'm not sure whether things have been getting worse since the 90s, but post 2008, ZIRP, the massive increase in the money supply, and the cantillon effect have a lot to answer for.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
I don't think this is all the case. Okay, we don't buy a fridge every year, but millions of people every year do buy phones and computers and TVs, and they keep getting better for the same price and/or drop in price. Same goes for services like e.g. NHS - procedures are more successful and keep people alive longer, and wages haven't gone up much. I don't think food really has gone up much in value-adjusted price in 20 years, maybe it did if you exclude the discounters, which statistics offices don't. Transport went up a lot in the last few years as they did run into input and wage pressures, but not so much for the decade before that. As for rents, those are incredibly difficult to value-adjust: if the property price rises at the same time, arguably the benefit of living there is commensurately more valuable, so it's not inflation. But it's a tricky one, which is why a lot of measures exclude housing costs.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
Yes, but it isn't an orderly queue. It is far easier for UK or Scotland to meet Accession criteria, as we have deviated little from when we were members. Turkey, Ukraine Ablania all have a lot of work to do that we have already done.
In practice Rejoining first would involve rejoining the SM, before formal membership, which could take some years of negotiation.
Also a big relief that all those applauding the proposed NI deal would presumably be supporting similar for an Indy Scotland in the EU. They would, right?
Why would Scotland want to be in the U.K. internal market?
I was thinking of us more in the Ireland rather than the NI role. But if you don't want our energy, whisky, foodstuffs etc fair enough.
You couldn’t take the Ireland role either because Ireland’s in the CTA, requiring freedom of movement from England.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
ah you see back then you would have been paying the 2022 price.
Do you remember folk breathlessly wondering whether Lab would post a 20% lead. Not that long ago. So things can change but I just do not see that Mr Sunak and those around him have anything close to the political skill required. They don't recognise opportunities, they cannot govern to an acceptable standard and they have aims that seem in fundamental opposition to the wishes and desires of the British people.
Wait two years and hope something turns up. Is that the whole width and depth of the Con strategy?
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Yes but the Government supporters on here seriously believe a few tax cuts in spring 2024 will make all the difference. Honestly?
You're quite right by the way - it's both the big things and the little things. There's a sauce I like - used to cost £1.70 now £3.40. I think meat has gone up a lot in price (not just the ludicrous expense of lamb but even chicken which has always been the one of the cheaper meats).
I'm sure the Pound and 99p stores are struggling - our 89p shop closed in the Barking Road. It's a cut throat world in discount retail.
Do you really think any party is going to change that. All four main parties are wedded to social democracy bollocks and will do ever more poorly funded things rather that ask the two questions pertinent
1) how much can we realistically raise per year 2) Where can we spend it to do most good
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
Lucky you. I paid £5.30 for a pint last week about as far north as you can go before they start wearing kilts.
Ale is generally lower priced than lager wherever you go, though.
Still only £3.35 for real ale in our village local. House lager is even cheaper, I believe. The average price for ale in the area is around £4.00.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
I agree that people are getting badly hit by rising commodity prices and interest rates. They will squeeze disposable incomes, as they are - in fact - doing in much of the developed world.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
I'd love to see the detailed Deltapoll data tables. The one meaningful comparison is looking at the 2019 Conservative vote. Stripping out the Don't Knows (and Deltapoll says nothing about the number), R&W has 60% voting Conservative and 22% Labour while Deltapoll has 68% Conservative and 18% Labour so perhaps the higher Conservative VI stems from that.
They are very consistent at finding more Tory’s. Last 4 polls 3 29’s and 1 30. Also a 32 in January.
That’s higher than the Opinium swingback goes.
You are right, d/k must be considered Tory still on more than just 2019 voting pattern with this firm? For example, if I asked voter and they said Tory in every election since 92, I would add that group to Tory column even if they said don’t know.
Pollsters have subtly different methodologies for the Kudos of being crowned Champion at the end of the day?
This is where having the data helps.
Redfield & Wilton have the Don't Knows and the fact is 46% of the total of Don't Knows were 2019 Conservative voters. Now, some will simply add those voters to the Conservative column, others may take a more equivocal view. The second largest group of Don't Knows (22%) were non-voters in 2019. That means around a third of current Don't Knows voted for other parties last time but some on here seem to think they are all going to suddenly become Tories which I don't accept.
I don't know (no pun intended) what the Don't Knows will do - some will vote in 2024 as they had in 2019, some may vote differently, many may not vote at all.
To assume they will all vote Conservative seems the epitome of stupidity (but that doesn't stop those Conservative sympathisers looking for the needle of comfort in the haystack of misery).
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
I was reading in the last few weeks that if the Scots gained independence they could rejoin on a 'nod'. I think I read it here. If untrue it would be a silly own goal by the EU.
Here’s a cunning plan. Scotland becomes independent and rejoins the EU. Subsequently, England becomes part of Scotland and thereby also rejoins the EU.
If the linked story is accurate (it is the Intercept, but it seems to be pretty well documented), then it's more stuff about DeSantis and Florida politics that makes him sound a very dangerous possible President. (note, it's a very long read.)
This @ryangrim story is insane. I have a cameo because I happened to interview Oren Miller in 2018, total straight arrow, cared only about good government, now a political prisoner for daring to challenge the creepy Villages-Republican-industrial complex. https://twitter.com/MikeGrunwald/status/1622580900012646401
From a domestic US point of view, he sounds much scarier than Trump, as he's organised and knows how to work the levers of power.
Yeah. Ruthlessly amoral, in my opinion. He only switched to antivaxxer support (including appointing Lapado) when he realised it was a weakness of Trump’s. And the Republican core/Fox News demographic eat that stuff up. (DeSantis is, of course, fully vaccinated himself). Given that Florida has a bunch of old people, and he’s been discouraging boosters, Florida hasn’t done too well on the deaths front. But that’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make. Vile man.
This is going to be like George W Bush isn't it? Hated and called a Dictator but, when Trump came along, he was suddenly the epitome of GOP 'moderation' with the related moans about how the GOP had become more extremist.
Personally, I think Bush was more of a c*** than Trump - the latter didn't start wars unlike the former.
Trump waged total relentless war on truth and decency.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
Haven't seen eggs at that price at my local sainsburys in months - they're always out of stock, with only higher priced alternatives actually available for sale on the day.
Add to that the cost of heating and electricity being 3x what it was this time last year, with a lot of people unable to afford heating their homes to a comfortable level. Some of those people haven't had a pay rise since before Covid.
The eggs (and other basics like pasta, bread etc going up similar amounts) are a minor but highly visible annoyance in comparison…
Certainly not minor for the least well off, though. Food inflation on staples hits them hardest.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
I'd love to see the detailed Deltapoll data tables. The one meaningful comparison is looking at the 2019 Conservative vote. Stripping out the Don't Knows (and Deltapoll says nothing about the number), R&W has 60% voting Conservative and 22% Labour while Deltapoll has 68% Conservative and 18% Labour so perhaps the higher Conservative VI stems from that.
They are very consistent at finding more Tory’s. Last 4 polls 3 29’s and 1 30. Also a 32 in January.
That’s higher than the Opinium swingback goes.
You are right, d/k must be considered Tory still on more than just 2019 voting pattern with this firm? For example, if I asked voter and they said Tory in every election since 92, I would add that group to Tory column even if they said don’t know.
Pollsters have subtly different methodologies for the Kudos of being crowned Champion at the end of the day?
Whither Opinium? Nearly a month since the last one.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
On the other hand, the price of TVs, laptops and international travel collapsed, and people were able to buy things like smartphones that would have been inconceivable to people in earlier generations.
It's always possible to find a basket of goods whose prices have stagnated, and ones that have soared.
But the process for measuring RPI/CPI is pretty transparent: you can literally download the basket the government uses, and measure it yourself.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
I agree that people are getting badly hit by rising commodity prices and interest rates. They will squeeze disposable incomes, as they are - in fact - doing in much of the developed world.
But commodity prices have come right down have they not? At least oil, gas and wheat anyway.
If the linked story is accurate (it is the Intercept, but it seems to be pretty well documented), then it's more stuff about DeSantis and Florida politics that makes him sound a very dangerous possible President. (note, it's a very long read.)
This @ryangrim story is insane. I have a cameo because I happened to interview Oren Miller in 2018, total straight arrow, cared only about good government, now a political prisoner for daring to challenge the creepy Villages-Republican-industrial complex. https://twitter.com/MikeGrunwald/status/1622580900012646401
From a domestic US point of view, he sounds much scarier than Trump, as he's organised and knows how to work the levers of power.
Yeah. Ruthlessly amoral, in my opinion. He only switched to antivaxxer support (including appointing Lapado) when he realised it was a weakness of Trump’s. And the Republican core/Fox News demographic eat that stuff up. (DeSantis is, of course, fully vaccinated himself). Given that Florida has a bunch of old people, and he’s been discouraging boosters, Florida hasn’t done too well on the deaths front. But that’s a sacrifice he’s willing to make. Vile man.
This is going to be like George W Bush isn't it? Hated and called a Dictator but, when Trump came along, he was suddenly the epitome of GOP 'moderation' with the related moans about how the GOP had become more extremist.
Personally, I think Bush was more of a c*** than Trump - the latter didn't start wars unlike the former.
Trump waged total relentless war on truth and decency.
Not my point. Everyone will be sh1t ting on RDS and saying Trump wasn't bad by comparison - as happened with GWB.
Personally, I think (and have heard) RDS is a total a**hole
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
I agree that people are getting badly hit by rising commodity prices and interest rates. They will squeeze disposable incomes, as they are - in fact - doing in much of the developed world.
But commodity prices have come right down have they not? At least oil, gas and wheat anyway.
Yes: but there's leads and lags here.
It's also worth noting that European natural gas prices are still above $60/mmbtu, against a quarter of that pre-Ukraine.
Delta is usually the best card in its hand, which makes it a very bad hand. R&W is a bit more middle-of-the-road, so 26 points is pretty terrible.
We are still 20 months out from a GE but these are exactly the sort of figures I would expect if we are on course for a LabMaj. There seems to be a significant shift in Scotland too which is not going to help Sunak one bit.
I think we can safely rule out another Conservative Government. We cannot rule out a Labour landslide.
Clearly Liz Truss to blame.
Pre Truss the Tories were in a deep dark well with just a chink of light coming down from yonder. She snuffed it out.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
A closer relationship between the UK and EU won't be forged for decades. The EU loathes the Swiss compromise because it's too messy and gives the Swiss all kinds of opt-outs; the UK won't accept the EEA because too much of the electorate is allergic to freedom of movement. Hence Starmer insisting that he's not going to take us back into the single market IIRC.
Do you remember folk breathlessly wondering whether Lab would post a 20% lead. Not that long ago. So things can change but I just do not see that Mr Sunak and those around him have anything close to the political skill required. They don't recognise opportunities, they cannot govern to an acceptable standard and they have aims that seem in fundamental opposition to the wishes and desires of the British people.
Wait two years and hope something turns up. Is that the whole width and depth of the Con strategy?
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
I'm a monetarist, and I think the problem is with the money supply, rather than Brexit, Ukraine or even Covid (though the money printing during Covid is certainly a factor).
But yes, I agree with you. I'm not sure whether things have been getting worse since the 90s, but post 2008, ZIRP, the massive increase in the money supply, and the cantillon effect have a lot to answer for.
It's all getting a bit Weimar Republic out there.
I broadly agree but the real problem is that increase in the money supply has not caused a huge amount of domestic inflation. Instead it has sucked in ever more imports at artificially high prices because, to be honest, our trade balance should have had Sterling digging a hole in the floor. How long are we going to ignore our biggest single problem?
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
Haven't seen eggs at that price at my local sainsburys in months - they're always out of stock, with only higher priced alternatives actually available for sale on the day.
Add to that the cost of heating and electricity being 3x what it was this time last year, with a lot of people unable to afford heating their homes to a comfortable level. Some of those people haven't had a pay rise since before Covid.
The eggs (and other basics like pasta, bread etc going up similar amounts) are a minor but highly visible annoyance in comparison…
Certainly not minor for the least well off, though. Food inflation on staples hits them hardest.
If you are asking foodbanks what has changed as cost of living crisis has taken hold, the first thing they will say is demand in general, and then demand for certain things people don’t think of donating to a foodbank. Loo roll is being rationed to sheets! There’s always more demand than availability for nappies, baby food, and sanitary products. I had a stockpile of loo roll in my spare room I have entirely taken to the foodbank. I didn’t even realise I had something so important to give away right now.
UHT milk/Long life milk is a another good thing to donate. Dried milk powder. Instant coffee.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
I'm a monetarist, and I think the problem is with the money supply, rather than Brexit, Ukraine or even Covid (though the money printing during Covid is certainly a factor).
But yes, I agree with you. I'm not sure whether things have been getting worse since the 90s, but post 2008, ZIRP, the massive increase in the money supply, and the cantillon effect have a lot to answer for.
It's all getting a bit Weimar Republic out there.
I broadly agree but the real problem is that increase in the money supply has not caused a huge amount of domestic inflation. Instead it has sucked in ever more imports at artificially high prices because, to be honest, our trade balance should have had Sterling digging a hole in the floor. How long are we going to ignore our biggest single problem?
As long as it is a national disgrace that any Government worth its salt would be ashamed of?
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
I'm a monetarist, and I think the problem is with the money supply, rather than Brexit, Ukraine or even Covid (though the money printing during Covid is certainly a factor).
But yes, I agree with you. I'm not sure whether things have been getting worse since the 90s, but post 2008, ZIRP, the massive increase in the money supply, and the cantillon effect have a lot to answer for.
It's all getting a bit Weimar Republic out there.
I broadly agree but the real problem is that increase in the money supply has not caused a huge amount of domestic inflation. Instead it has sucked in ever more imports at artificially high prices because, to be honest, our trade balance should have had Sterling digging a hole in the floor. How long are we going to ignore our biggest single problem?
Delta is usually the best card in its hand, which makes it a very bad hand. R&W is a bit more middle-of-the-road, so 26 points is pretty terrible.
We are still 20 months out from a GE but these are exactly the sort of figures I would expect if we are on course for a LabMaj. There seems to be a significant shift in Scotland too which is not going to help Sunak one bit.
I think we can safely rule out another Conservative Government. We cannot rule out a Labour landslide.
Clearly Liz Truss to blame.
Pre Truss the Tories were in a deep dark well with just a chink of light coming down from yonder. She snuffed it out.
No, Truss was a volatile factor. The country and the party could soar or plunge with her. Sunak is really the one with his pillow firmly clamped over the airways of the Tories and of Britain. He is efficiently managing us down the plughole.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Starmer's not going to listen to you, and he's right not to. Re-running the Brexit debate is the single biggest risk to a Labour victory in 2024. He can be radical in other areas, but he shouldn't touch Brexit with a bargepole before the next GE.
I'm not sure why you can't see this. I would expect those who want the Tories to win to be seducing Starmer into re-opening Brexit wounds, not Labour supporters.
Because I don't see it as a tactic. I see it as a necessity. If we rejoin we can save businesses improve trade reinstate the UK's leading world position and prevent the leaking of 4% GDP from here on in. If the UK doesn't improve it's performance two years into a Labour government and we're still scraping along the bottom of the G20 voters wont be asking why that clown Boris took us out of the EU but why haven't Labour done anything about it.
At the moment the catastrophe of Brexit is 100% owned by the Tories. It's the Poll Tax to the power of 10. This will come back to bite Labour very hard particularly if the Scots get their independence
I've also noticed the price of eggs seems to have come down a little.
I’ve noticed far more availability of eggs in the last few weeks. Prices have not come down round here but neither are they going up anywhere near like they have been.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
On the other hand, the price of TVs, laptops and international travel collapsed, and people were able to buy things like smartphones that would have been inconceivable to people in earlier generations.
It's always possible to find a basket of goods whose prices have stagnated, and ones that have soared.
But the process for measuring RPI/CPI is pretty transparent: you can literally download the basket the government uses, and measure it yourself.
I remember walking around Dalston Sainsburys 18 years ago wondering how it is possible for 4 baked potatoes to be £3. That was what it cost then, could have been a random one off due to a potato shortage but it seemed very expensive. Rent for a houseshare was about £300 per month plus bills. I earned about £700 per month temping in an office job (after tax) It was about £3 a pint. I don't think things have changed that much. Everything has doubled in price but so has pay.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
I'm a monetarist, and I think the problem is with the money supply, rather than Brexit, Ukraine or even Covid (though the money printing during Covid is certainly a factor).
But yes, I agree with you. I'm not sure whether things have been getting worse since the 90s, but post 2008, ZIRP, the massive increase in the money supply, and the cantillon effect have a lot to answer for.
It's all getting a bit Weimar Republic out there.
I broadly agree but the real problem is that increase in the money supply has not caused a huge amount of domestic inflation. Instead it has sucked in ever more imports at artificially high prices because, to be honest, our trade balance should have had Sterling digging a hole in the floor. How long are we going to ignore our biggest single problem?
As long as it is a national disgrace that any Government worth its salt would be ashamed of?
Thinking about it, following yesterday's OBR discussion, BOP should be added to their reporting requirements.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
I'd love to see the detailed Deltapoll data tables. The one meaningful comparison is looking at the 2019 Conservative vote. Stripping out the Don't Knows (and Deltapoll says nothing about the number), R&W has 60% voting Conservative and 22% Labour while Deltapoll has 68% Conservative and 18% Labour so perhaps the higher Conservative VI stems from that.
They are very consistent at finding more Tory’s. Last 4 polls 3 29’s and 1 30. Also a 32 in January.
That’s higher than the Opinium swingback goes.
You are right, d/k must be considered Tory still on more than just 2019 voting pattern with this firm? For example, if I asked voter and they said Tory in every election since 92, I would add that group to Tory column even if they said don’t know.
Pollsters have subtly different methodologies for the Kudos of being crowned Champion at the end of the day?
This is where having the data helps.
Redfield & Wilton have the Don't Knows and the fact is 46% of the total of Don't Knows were 2019 Conservative voters. Now, some will simply add those voters to the Conservative column, others may take a more equivocal view. The second largest group of Don't Knows (22%) were non-voters in 2019. That means around a third of current Don't Knows voted for other parties last time but some on here seem to think they are all going to suddenly become Tories which I don't accept.
I don't know (no pun intended) what the Don't Knows will do - some will vote in 2024 as they had in 2019, some may vote differently, many may not vote at all.
To assume they will all vote Conservative seems the epitome of stupidity (but that doesn't stop those Conservative sympathisers looking for the needle of comfort in the haystack of misery).
Well to be fair, it’s just not Tory sympathisers looking for crumbs of comfort, Mike has had headers warning Labour rampers of the size of the don’t know column and the small number switched direct to Labour column.
My guess is, if it’s a GE where a party is unpopular, it’s not just about their voters last time, and long time, switching, many just will not bother. Governments scaring voters about opposition getting in is a strong tool. But I agree with you, many of the didn’t vote last time don’t knows being sampled may not even vote next time.
So when it comes to the don’t know, we don’t know.
As Mike points to that “voted Tory now switched to Labour % column” saying it’s a low figure - do you know that figure from 97?
I don't understand what kind of money supply shock affects international commodity prices about thirteen years after the beginning of growth in the money supply and no sooner.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
A closer relationship between the UK and EU won't be forged for decades. The EU loathes the Swiss compromise because it's too messy and gives the Swiss all kinds of opt-outs; the UK won't accept the EEA because too much of the electorate is allergic to freedom of movement. Hence Starmer insisting that he's not going to take us back into the single market IIRC.
We are a much bigger catch than Switzerland for the EU, though.
Switzerland is a small country that exports more to the EU than it imports. The UK is a large one that imports a lot more than it exports.
And I'm not suggesting we'd have a Swiss type arrangement that required (counts...) 210 separate Treaties, I'm suggesting that we're big enough to have a custom deal.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
On the other hand, the price of TVs, laptops and international travel collapsed, and people were able to buy things like smartphones that would have been inconceivable to people in earlier generations.
It's always possible to find a basket of goods whose prices have stagnated, and ones that have soared.
But the process for measuring RPI/CPI is pretty transparent: you can literally download the basket the government uses, and measure it yourself.
This is the entire point that Jack Monroe was making to the ONS, though. Everyone experiences inflation differently and, surprise surprise, the real rates of inflation that people experience get worse, typically, as they become poorer.
People who can - literally - afford to be dismissive of a 50p hike in the price of a four pint bottle of milk or a box of eggs aren't the ones who are poor enough to be spending a large fraction of their incomes on basic food. If you're a high earner or well-off pensioner who's mortgage-free then you're going to be largely insulated from inflation, because much of your spending is discretionary and it's either going to be on goods and services where prices have been held down more effectively than those on food and fuel, or you can cut back and make fewer of them without it making a major impact on your standard of living.
Thus, the process for calculating inflation may very well be straightforward and transparent, but that doesn't mean that the measurements made aren't partial and of limited value.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
A closer relationship between the UK and EU won't be forged for decades. The EU loathes the Swiss compromise because it's too messy and gives the Swiss all kinds of opt-outs; the UK won't accept the EEA because too much of the electorate is allergic to freedom of movement. Hence Starmer insisting that he's not going to take us back into the single market IIRC.
We are a much bigger catch than Switzerland for the EU, though.
Switzerland is a small country that exports more to the EU than it imports. The UK is a large one that imports a lot more than it exports.
And I'm not suggesting we'd have a Swiss type arrangement that required (counts...) 210 separate Treaties, I'm suggesting that we're big enough to have a custom deal.
In some ways full membership is the easier deal to negotiate because it is what it is. Getting a full fat but bespoke deal is harder, not least because the UK will have to compromise a lot more than the EU. The UK will always have some arrangement with the EU as it's in the interest of both sides to have one. It remains to be seen if whether it goes beyond minimal.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
A closer relationship between the UK and EU won't be forged for decades. The EU loathes the Swiss compromise because it's too messy and gives the Swiss all kinds of opt-outs; the UK won't accept the EEA because too much of the electorate is allergic to freedom of movement. Hence Starmer insisting that he's not going to take us back into the single market IIRC.
We are a much bigger catch than Switzerland for the EU, though.
Switzerland is a small country that exports more to the EU than it imports. The UK is a large one that imports a lot more than it exports.
And I'm not suggesting we'd have a Swiss type arrangement that required (counts...) 210 separate Treaties, I'm suggesting that we're big enough to have a custom deal.
This sounds suspiciously like the German car makers' argument for why negotiating a favourable withdrawal agreement would be a piece of cake. Remind us how that worked out.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
A closer relationship between the UK and EU won't be forged for decades. The EU loathes the Swiss compromise because it's too messy and gives the Swiss all kinds of opt-outs; the UK won't accept the EEA because too much of the electorate is allergic to freedom of movement. Hence Starmer insisting that he's not going to take us back into the single market IIRC.
We are a much bigger catch than Switzerland for the EU, though.
Switzerland is a small country that exports more to the EU than it imports. The UK is a large one that imports a lot more than it exports.
And I'm not suggesting we'd have a Swiss type arrangement that required (counts...) 210 separate Treaties, I'm suggesting that we're big enough to have a custom deal.
This sounds suspiciously like the German car makers' argument for why negotiating a favourable withdrawal agreement would be a piece of cake. Remind us how that worked out.
Your argument is simply nothing is possible because, so I'm not sure I am being any more fanciful than you.
She reached for it, after a stumbling pause, but I for one believe Liz Truss answered it honestly and paints a true picture for us.
She was being told the market will melt down unless you throw him into the volcano to indicate an abrupt u turn. To avoid a market melt down she was led to believe was coming, she had to sack her chancellor, who only found out his about his sacking from seeing it on the news?
But now learning that she believed there would be meltdown unless indicating abrupt u turn, and she done that abrupt u turn, does undermine the argument she didn’t do much wrong. Doesn’t it?
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
I'd love to see the detailed Deltapoll data tables. The one meaningful comparison is looking at the 2019 Conservative vote. Stripping out the Don't Knows (and Deltapoll says nothing about the number), R&W has 60% voting Conservative and 22% Labour while Deltapoll has 68% Conservative and 18% Labour so perhaps the higher Conservative VI stems from that.
They are very consistent at finding more Tory’s. Last 4 polls 3 29’s and 1 30. Also a 32 in January.
That’s higher than the Opinium swingback goes.
You are right, d/k must be considered Tory still on more than just 2019 voting pattern with this firm? For example, if I asked voter and they said Tory in every election since 92, I would add that group to Tory column even if they said don’t know.
Pollsters have subtly different methodologies for the Kudos of being crowned Champion at the end of the day?
This is where having the data helps.
Redfield & Wilton have the Don't Knows and the fact is 46% of the total of Don't Knows were 2019 Conservative voters. Now, some will simply add those voters to the Conservative column, others may take a more equivocal view. The second largest group of Don't Knows (22%) were non-voters in 2019. That means around a third of current Don't Knows voted for other parties last time but some on here seem to think they are all going to suddenly become Tories which I don't accept.
I don't know (no pun intended) what the Don't Knows will do - some will vote in 2024 as they had in 2019, some may vote differently, many may not vote at all.
To assume they will all vote Conservative seems the epitome of stupidity (but that doesn't stop those Conservative sympathisers looking for the needle of comfort in the haystack of misery).
Well to be fair, it’s just not Tory sympathisers looking for crumbs of comfort, Mike has had headers warning Labour rampers of the size of the don’t know column and the small number switched direct to Labour column.
My guess is, if it’s a GE where a party is unpopular, it’s not just about their voters last time, and long time, switching, many just will not bother. Governments scaring voters about opposition getting in is a strong tool. But I agree with you, many of the didn’t vote last time don’t knows being sampled may not even vote next time.
So when it comes to the don’t know, we don’t know.
As Mike points to that “voted Tory now switched to Labour % column” saying it’s a low figure - do you know that figure from 97?
Not sure which famous pollster said it (Peter Kellner?) but the dictum that comes to mind is 'those that don't know, don't vote'.
You tend to see a reduction in the number of don't knows as polling day approaches. This may signify a return to the fold, or 'swingback' as some would have it.
As strawclutching goes, it's desperate stuff though when you are 20+ adrift.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
Just watching the Tory %:
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
The Tories were on only 19% with Truss with RedfieldWilton last October
The Tory shape is a topless lady leaning over the side of a bed.
"No time for the old in-out, love! I've just come to read the meter!"
Yes. Tories out of love and all out of luck.
BTW I watched confessions of a window cleaner last week. So many great pairs of tits in it. I want to live in a country proud to be making films like that again.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
On the other hand, the price of TVs, laptops and international travel collapsed, and people were able to buy things like smartphones that would have been inconceivable to people in earlier generations.
It's always possible to find a basket of goods whose prices have stagnated, and ones that have soared.
But the process for measuring RPI/CPI is pretty transparent: you can literally download the basket the government uses, and measure it yourself.
I remember walking around Dalston Sainsburys 18 years ago wondering how it is possible for 4 baked potatoes to be £3. That was what it cost then, could have been a random one off due to a potato shortage but it seemed very expensive. Rent for a houseshare was about £300 per month plus bills. I earned about £700 per month temping in an office job (after tax) It was about £3 a pint. I don't think things have changed that much. Everything has doubled in price but so has pay.
I lived in Dalston back then, we were probably neighbours!
Average rent for a room in London is actually now £935 a month. That's for a room in a houseshare, mind. Not a flat.
This job would be a hell of a lot of easier without clients.
I once had a client who had sent a picture of his genitalia in a state of extreme excitement to his boss’s Secretary. Wanted me to negotiate a severance in advance of a misconduct hearing. He said he got the wrong number - offending pic had meant to go to a “friend” outside the company. I pointed out that, excluding the 07 at the start, there were 9 variable digits in a U.K. mobile telephone number. So the chances of him dialling his boss’s secretary’s number purely by chance were about 1 in 1,000,000,000. His response was to say, yes, but clearly that meant there was a chance he had got the wrong number and it would be unreasonable to fire him. He should be compensated. He also decided to seek alternative legal representation.
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
Just watching the Tory %:
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
The Tories were on only 19% with Truss with RedfieldWilton last October
Without your cherry picking, the polling average of the Truss month probably isn’t so far from Sunak’s most recent month, is it?
But now learning that she believed there would be meltdown unless indicating abrupt u turn, and she done that abrupt u turn, does undermine the argument she didn’t do much wrong. Doesn’t it?
This job would be a hell of a lot of easier without clients.
I once had a client who had sent a picture of his genitalia in a state of extreme excitement to his boss’s Secretary. Wanted me to negotiate a severance in advance of a misconduct hearing. He said he got the wrong number - offending pic had meant to go to a “friend” outside the company. I pointed out that, excluding the 07 at the start, there were 9 variable digits in a U.K. mobile telephone number. So the chances of him dialling his boss’s secretary’s number purely by chance were about 1 in 1,000,000,000. His response was to say, yes, but clearly that meant there was a chance he had got the wrong number and it would be unreasonable to fire him. He should be compensated. He also decided to seek alternative legal representation.
Hmm. The analysis is different if the numbers were on quick-dial with single button presses, or the first few digits .. but, even so ...
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
Just watching the Tory %:
2022 has given us 2 Tory polls in the 30s, a 30 and 31, both from Delta.
February has given us the sequence 24, 22, 27, 24, 24.
I think now you can only properly assess month to month not on weeks or part weeks, because if Opinium, Delta and Kantor had been only pollsters to report so far in February, it would have Tories averaging 29%
Actually 24% is quite awful polling figure for a current average of last 5 polls - it’s not that far off what got Truss humiliatingly booted out. If Truss and her policies were such disaster, then what should be said about a PM polling very nearly exactly the same from an average of all polls over one month?
The Tories were on only 19% with Truss with RedfieldWilton last October
Without your cherry picking, the polling average of the Truss month probably isn’t so far from Sunak’s most recent month, is it?
The Truss premiership was a horror show from start to finish.
I never want to hear from her ever again.
The Tory Party is completely mad and will ensure that we hear a whole lot more from her, in her new capacity as elder stateswoman, sage, grandee and purveyor of implausible (yet very attractive to wealthy party members in the early stages of dementia) fantasies. Count on it.
I think we're beyond the point of worrying what anyone thinks about the opposition. As long as they're viable they'll do. Like any disaster the first job is to clear the debris.
A pity SKS hasn't got the bottle to promise he'll reverse Brexit. He's well past the point of having to be cautious. The Tories are in such a state that if he wants a radical first term now would be a good time to put it on the table.
Not again. You can't "reverse" Brexit. I wish people would stop using the phrase. You can apply to rejoin, sure, but that takes all 27 member states to agree (by no means a given) plus a long and possibly arduous accession negotiation. You and others like seem to think we can just say "sorry, all a mistake, let's 'reverse' and go back to 2015". It's too late for that. We're not Remainers anymore, we're Rejoiners.
Barnier disagrees.....
But even if you're half right now would be a good time to set out some reasonable conditions that if met would mean we could apply to rejoin in all humility and assume our rightful place at the heart of Europe. There is hardly a single person who hasn't now been adversely affected by Brexit.
Article 50(5) of the Treaty on European Union is very clear that to rejoin we have to get in the queue with everyone else -
"If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49."
Article 49 is the same procedure as applying to Ukraine, Turkey, Albania etc etc.
Unless you're saying that Barnier can rewrite the Treaty on European Union. Huge if true.
There is a fundamental difference, though. The UK already has EU law and regulation on the books. Passing the Acquis would take a few seconds.
There are other obstacles that Ukraine, Turkey and Albania don’t have. It’s going to take some persuasion for Italy to be satisfied with being the third largest economy in the EU again.
I think there would be enormous reluctance among EU capitals to bring the UK in, given that we'd (a) been a pain in the butt while a member before; and (b) that there was no overwhelming support for EU membership in the UK. That is, the last thing EU countries want is an on-again, off-again relationship with the UK.
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
A closer relationship between the UK and EU won't be forged for decades. The EU loathes the Swiss compromise because it's too messy and gives the Swiss all kinds of opt-outs; the UK won't accept the EEA because too much of the electorate is allergic to freedom of movement. Hence Starmer insisting that he's not going to take us back into the single market IIRC.
We are a much bigger catch than Switzerland for the EU, though.
Switzerland is a small country that exports more to the EU than it imports. The UK is a large one that imports a lot more than it exports.
And I'm not suggesting we'd have a Swiss type arrangement that required (counts...) 210 separate Treaties, I'm suggesting that we're big enough to have a custom deal.
This sounds suspiciously like the German car makers' argument for why negotiating a favourable withdrawal agreement would be a piece of cake. Remind us how that worked out.
Your argument is simply nothing is possible because, so I'm not sure I am being any more fanciful than you.
The Tory shape is a topless lady leaning over the side of a bed.
"No time for the old in-out, love! I've just come to read the meter!"
Yes. Tories out of love and all out of luck.
BTW I watched confessions of a window cleaner last week. So many great pairs of tits in it. I want to live in a country proud to be making films like that again.
Um, yes, of course, sentiments shared, but my quote was actually Malcolm McDowell in "A Clockwork Orange"
29% with Deltapoll is of course the same as Labour got in 2010 when Brown got a hung parliament. So plenty still to play for
The month of January produced very nearly 26% average for Tory’s. This month so far has the polls even lower.
Of course anything is spin able “month average is 26% only 3% off what gave Brown 260 seats, all to play for”. But the more ifs and buts you put in a sentence, the more lame and unbelievable it sounds.
But, for example, Major 30.7% 165 seats.
I'd love to see the detailed Deltapoll data tables. The one meaningful comparison is looking at the 2019 Conservative vote. Stripping out the Don't Knows (and Deltapoll says nothing about the number), R&W has 60% voting Conservative and 22% Labour while Deltapoll has 68% Conservative and 18% Labour so perhaps the higher Conservative VI stems from that.
They are very consistent at finding more Tory’s. Last 4 polls 3 29’s and 1 30. Also a 32 in January.
That’s higher than the Opinium swingback goes.
You are right, d/k must be considered Tory still on more than just 2019 voting pattern with this firm? For example, if I asked voter and they said Tory in every election since 92, I would add that group to Tory column even if they said don’t know.
Pollsters have subtly different methodologies for the Kudos of being crowned Champion at the end of the day?
This is where having the data helps.
Redfield & Wilton have the Don't Knows and the fact is 46% of the total of Don't Knows were 2019 Conservative voters. Now, some will simply add those voters to the Conservative column, others may take a more equivocal view. The second largest group of Don't Knows (22%) were non-voters in 2019. That means around a third of current Don't Knows voted for other parties last time but some on here seem to think they are all going to suddenly become Tories which I don't accept.
I don't know (no pun intended) what the Don't Knows will do - some will vote in 2024 as they had in 2019, some may vote differently, many may not vote at all.
To assume they will all vote Conservative seems the epitome of stupidity (but that doesn't stop those Conservative sympathisers looking for the needle of comfort in the haystack of misery).
Well to be fair, it’s just not Tory sympathisers looking for crumbs of comfort, Mike has had headers warning Labour rampers of the size of the don’t know column and the small number switched direct to Labour column.
My guess is, if it’s a GE where a party is unpopular, it’s not just about their voters last time, and long time, switching, many just will not bother. Governments scaring voters about opposition getting in is a strong tool. But I agree with you, many of the didn’t vote last time don’t knows being sampled may not even vote next time.
So when it comes to the don’t know, we don’t know.
As Mike points to that “voted Tory now switched to Labour % column” saying it’s a low figure - do you know that figure from 97?
Not sure which famous pollster said it (Peter Kellner?) but the dictum that comes to mind is 'those that don't know, don't vote'.
You tend to see a reduction in the number of don't knows as polling day approaches. This may signify a return to the fold, or 'swingback' as some would have it.
As strawclutching goes, it's desperate stuff though when you are 20+ adrift.
Yep. And what you say points to large Tory to don’t know becoming large didn’t vote if the maxims true.
Mike Smithson keeps pointing to the current small number of switchers to Labour from 2019 Tory voters - if we knew the 97 election total who switched to Labour from 92 Tory, it would be an excellent measure if Labour are on course or not?
She reached for it, after a stumbling pause, but I for one believe Liz Truss answered it honestly and paints a true picture for us.
She was being told the market will melt down unless you throw him into the volcano to indicate an abrupt u turn. To avoid a market melt down she was led to believe was coming, she had to sack her chancellor, who only found out his about his sacking from seeing it on the news?
But now learning that she believed there would be meltdown unless indicating abrupt u turn, and she done that abrupt u turn, does undermine the argument she didn’t do much wrong. Doesn’t it?
Well yes, but it's not really about rationality, is it?
To survive in politics, you need a degree of confidence that looks like arrogance to normal people. "I basically got it right but was let down by minions" is the standard message of pretty much every political memoir.
What's unusual about the Trusster is that she's going so public so quickly, and that she genuinely seems to think that there's a way back for her.
She reached for it, after a stumbling pause, but I for one believe Liz Truss answered it honestly and paints a true picture for us.
She was being told the market will melt down unless you throw him into the volcano to indicate an abrupt u turn. To avoid a market melt down she was led to believe was coming, she had to sack her chancellor, who only found out his about his sacking from seeing it on the news?
But now learning that she believed there would be meltdown unless indicating abrupt u turn, and she done that abrupt u turn, does undermine the argument she didn’t do much wrong. Doesn’t it?
Well yes, but it's not really about rationality, is it?
To survive in politics, you need a degree of confidence that looks like arrogance to normal people. "I basically got it right but was let down by minions" is the standard message of pretty much every political memoir.
What's unusual about the Trusster is that she's going so public so quickly, and that she genuinely seems to think that there's a way back for her.
She reached for it, after a stumbling pause, but I for one believe Liz Truss answered it honestly and paints a true picture for us.
She was being told the market will melt down unless you throw him into the volcano to indicate an abrupt u turn. To avoid a market melt down she was led to believe was coming, she had to sack her chancellor, who only found out his about his sacking from seeing it on the news?
But now learning that she believed there would be meltdown unless indicating abrupt u turn, and she done that abrupt u turn, does undermine the argument she didn’t do much wrong. Doesn’t it?
Well yes, but it's not really about rationality, is it?
To survive in politics, you need a degree of confidence that looks like arrogance to normal people. "I basically got it right but was let down by minions" is the standard message of pretty much every political memoir.
What's unusual about the Trusster is that she's going so public so quickly, and that she genuinely seems to think that there's a way back for her.
“Well yes, but it's not really about rationality, is it?”
It comes across as throwing someone into a volcano to prevent a market crash, as your Shaman are telling you that’s what the markets demand.
Don’t you believe top level politics and economy management operates like that?
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
I'm a monetarist, and I think the problem is with the money supply, rather than Brexit, Ukraine or even Covid (though the money printing during Covid is certainly a factor).
But yes, I agree with you. I'm not sure whether things have been getting worse since the 90s, but post 2008, ZIRP, the massive increase in the money supply, and the cantillon effect have a lot to answer for.
It's all getting a bit Weimar Republic out there.
I broadly agree but the real problem is that increase in the money supply has not caused a huge amount of domestic inflation. Instead it has sucked in ever more imports at artificially high prices because, to be honest, our trade balance should have had Sterling digging a hole in the floor. How long are we going to ignore our biggest single problem?
As long as it is a national disgrace that any Government worth its salt would be ashamed of?
Thinking about it, following yesterday's OBR discussion, BOP should be added to their reporting requirements.
Delta is usually the best card in its hand, which makes it a very bad hand. R&W is a bit more middle-of-the-road, so 26 points is pretty terrible.
We are still 20 months out from a GE but these are exactly the sort of figures I would expect if we are on course for a LabMaj. There seems to be a significant shift in Scotland too which is not going to help Sunak one bit.
I think we can safely rule out another Conservative Government. We cannot rule out a Labour landslide.
Clearly Liz Truss to blame.
Pre Truss the Tories were in a deep dark well with just a chink of light coming down from yonder. She snuffed it out.
No, Truss was a volatile factor. The country and the party could soar or plunge with her. Sunak is really the one with his pillow firmly clamped over the airways of the Tories and of Britain. He is efficiently managing us down the plughole.
Well we saw the plunge. The 'soar' bit remains in its alternative universe.
As I have been reporting for about a week, Something bad is going on with the Tory poll %, maybe mounting voter frustration at strikes as strikers more popular than the government position, which could be a temporary % drop recoverable before general election, or, what might me harder to recover, voters assessment of a new PM and his government is coming to an end, and they assess a weak, clueless, not just out of touch but with a nasty party streak to it, mess of a leader and party.
Yes. Mex. You know where to come for the best most unspun poll explanations 😁
What could possibly be going on with the polls?
Well, let's see. Six eggs are £2.50, if you can find them, chicken breast is up from about £3 to £5, a pint is anywhere from £5 to £7.50 depending on where you are in the country, most of my friends have stopped booking train travel in advance because it's too unreliable, I've had family wait ten hours in an ambulance to get admitted to A&E, my gas bill is coming to £200 a month and I barely heat the place above 15 degrees, relying on an electric blanket or a warm coat most of the time, rents are up 27% year on year in London, and similar rises in other major cities like Manchester. Interest rates meaning mortgages are up similar amounts for people remortgaging this year. Taxes rose substantially in the last budget, and while many in the private sector are seeing pay rises, they're largely below inflation, while others haven't seen a pay rise since before Covid.
I cannot possibly imagine why people want this shower of shit out of government.
I bought eggs today. I paid less about 1.75. I brought a pint of doom bar yesterday it cost me 4.20. Don't assume that south east inflation applies to most people
I was in London about six weeks ago, and didn't have any problem buying eggs or beer. A cursory look at Tesco delivery shows that there is less availability of eggs than normal, but that it is perfectly possible to get a delivery of six free range eggs for under £2.
As I say, the cheaper ones are always out of stock at my local. While I'm not disputing that it's still possible to get eggs at under £2, is the price paid in 2022 (£1.95) really that much comfort to people who were paying £1.29 in 2021?
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Something is fundamentally broken, however its not because of brexit, the ukraine war or even covid. The price inflation has been going on since the late 90's. The headline rate of inflation has never been anywhere near what most people experiences. We kept being told there is no inflation while our rent increased above the headline rate, council tax increased above the headline rate, transport costs and food costs increased above the inflation rate. The powers that be decreased the headline rate by including a load of electrical products that did go down in price and were deflationary but which few brought every year. Example fridges....havent bought one in 20 years but they are in the basket of goods for inflation.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
On the other hand, the price of TVs, laptops and international travel collapsed, and people were able to buy things like smartphones that would have been inconceivable to people in earlier generations.
It's always possible to find a basket of goods whose prices have stagnated, and ones that have soared.
But the process for measuring RPI/CPI is pretty transparent: you can literally download the basket the government uses, and measure it yourself.
This is the entire point that Jack Monroe was making to the ONS, though. Everyone experiences inflation differently and, surprise surprise, the real rates of inflation that people experience get worse, typically, as they become poorer.
People who can - literally - afford to be dismissive of a 50p hike in the price of a four pint bottle of milk or a box of eggs aren't the ones who are poor enough to be spending a large fraction of their incomes on basic food. If you're a high earner or well-off pensioner who's mortgage-free then you're going to be largely insulated from inflation, because much of your spending is discretionary and it's either going to be on goods and services where prices have been held down more effectively than those on food and fuel, or you can cut back and make fewer of them without it making a major impact on your standard of living.
Thus, the process for calculating inflation may very well be straightforward and transparent, but that doesn't mean that the measurements made aren't partial and of limited value.
While this is true, it's also true that low-income people spend more of their incomes on almost everything in the basket, because they spend more of their incomes, and save less. The UK is not a country where people literally starve or freeze to death, except in very sad and extremely rare cases that don't reflect spending power as such. Almost everyone can afford some goods that would have been luxuries 30 years ago, like meals out, or even 15 years ago, like smartphones. So everyone notices when they have to downgrade material quality of life by cutting spending on these things.
There's also a certain element of perpetual doom around the arguments used by the Jacks Monroe of this world - the idea that at all times life was better for almost everyone 6 months ago, which is really just a kind of reactionary conservatism.
This job would be a hell of a lot of easier without clients.
I once had a client who had sent a picture of his genitalia in a state of extreme excitement to his boss’s Secretary. Wanted me to negotiate a severance in advance of a misconduct hearing. He said he got the wrong number - offending pic had meant to go to a “friend” outside the company. I pointed out that, excluding the 07 at the start, there were 9 variable digits in a U.K. mobile telephone number. So the chances of him dialling his boss’s secretary’s number purely by chance were about 1 in 1,000,000,000. His response was to say, yes, but clearly that meant there was a chance he had got the wrong number and it would be unreasonable to fire him. He should be compensated. He also decided to seek alternative legal representation.
The Truss premiership was a horror show from start to finish.
I never want to hear from her ever again.
It was a horror show even before it began. Who can forget the jury being out on Macron?
Whereas Sunak's sloppy Macron clinch has cost us millions of pounds worth of 'deal' which has yet to yield any noticeable decline in the numbers of small boats.
@benrileysmith: 🚨BREAKING: Rishi Sunak preparing a small reshuffle to be announced as early as tomorrow. To replace Nadhim Zahawi but also go wider.
Coincidence after the Truss storm this weekend? I think not. She picked her moment. This is the REAL start of the Truss comeback. This weekend’s charm offensive but paved the way. Sunak simply has to bring her back into the tent now. He needs a big beast. I’m off to put £100 on Truss as next CoE. No 11 tomorrow, No 10 by Christmas.
Comments
Agreed. But what if that simply doesn't matter much?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/egg-prices-soar-85-shoppers-28903745
These are actually fairly minor things, maybe most people don't buy more than six eggs a week, so they're out less than £4 a month more than they were before.
But these are things you notice, day in day out, and noticing prices like that going up month on month is bound to have an impact on the polls. It is the old point about Thatcher knowing the price of a pint of milk, because these are things that people notice.
The big costs are rent/mortgage/energy bills, which dwarf egg price rises. I'm spending an extra £2 a month on eggs, but an extra £200 a month on electricity and gas.
But in terms of psychological impact, seeing the price of staples like eggs, bread and pasta rise noticeably month on month has a big effect.
People sense that something is fundamentally *broken* and while it doesn't seem like the other lot has anything useful to say about it, people will vote to give the current lot a kicking either way.
Yes, I know “Jocks”, “rent free”, “Scotch Expert” etc etc etc
Time needs to passs before the UK can convincingly say "Sorry about that bloke who said all that stuff. He's being looked after now. We're not him."
The only questions that matter are how much time needs to pass, and what the UK does in the meantime. Because the only way I can see of improving the benefit-cost ratio of Brexit is to dilute it.
Every year our taxes rise above inflation council tax rise and every year we get less services for it.
That’s higher than the Opinium swingback goes.
You are right, d/k must be considered Tory still on more than just 2019 voting pattern with this firm? For example, if I asked voter and they said Tory in every election since 92, I would add that group to Tory column even if they said don’t know.
Pollsters have subtly different methodologies for the Kudos of being crowned Champion at the end of the day?
You're quite right by the way - it's both the big things and the little things. There's a sauce I like - used to cost £1.70 now £3.40. I think meat has gone up a lot in price (not just the ludicrous expense of lamb but even chicken which has always been the one of the cheaper meats).
I'm sure the Pound and 99p stores are struggling - our 89p shop closed in the Barking Road. It's a cut throat world in discount retail.
Personally, I think Bush was more of a c*** than Trump - the latter didn't start wars unlike the former.
But yes, I agree with you. I'm not sure whether things have been getting worse since the 90s, but post 2008, ZIRP, the massive increase in the money supply, and the cantillon effect have a lot to answer for.
It's all getting a bit Weimar Republic out there.
Wait two years and hope something turns up. Is that the whole width and depth of the Con strategy?
1) how much can we realistically raise per year
2) Where can we spend it to do most good
That being said... I think they would probably be relatively relaxed about the UK joining the EEA. But I just don't see the political will for that in the UK.
The Swiss-type relationship, where low skilled migration is limited by the requirement to have Swiss educational qualifications and the need to purchase health insurance, combined with the Swiss maintaining more sovereignty than happens in EFTA/EEA, is more possible.
Redfield & Wilton have the Don't Knows and the fact is 46% of the total of Don't Knows were 2019 Conservative voters. Now, some will simply add those voters to the Conservative column, others may take a more equivocal view. The second largest group of Don't Knows (22%) were non-voters in 2019. That means around a third of current Don't Knows voted for other parties last time but some on here seem to think they are all going to suddenly become Tories which I don't accept.
I don't know (no pun intended) what the Don't Knows will do - some will vote in 2024 as they had in 2019, some may vote differently, many may not vote at all.
To assume they will all vote Conservative seems the epitome of stupidity (but that doesn't stop those Conservative sympathisers looking for the needle of comfort in the haystack of misery).
Food inflation on staples hits them hardest.
It's always possible to find a basket of goods whose prices have stagnated, and ones that have soared.
But the process for measuring RPI/CPI is pretty transparent: you can literally download the basket the government uses, and measure it yourself.
Personally, I think (and have heard) RDS is a total a**hole
It's also worth noting that European natural gas prices are still above $60/mmbtu, against a quarter of that pre-Ukraine.
@aljwhite: This is such an obvious question to ask and she’s not remotely ready for it https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1622642727341916169/video/1
UHT milk/Long life milk is a another good thing to donate. Dried milk powder. Instant coffee.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/06/dimmer-than-she-appears-or-totally-dishonest-liz-truss-may-be-both
At the moment the catastrophe of Brexit is 100% owned by the Tories. It's the Poll Tax to the power of 10. This will come back to bite Labour very hard particularly if the Scots get their independence
Rent for a houseshare was about £300 per month plus bills.
I earned about £700 per month temping in an office job (after tax)
It was about £3 a pint.
I don't think things have changed that much. Everything has doubled in price but so has pay.
My guess is, if it’s a GE where a party is unpopular, it’s not just about their voters last time, and long time, switching, many just will not bother. Governments scaring voters about opposition getting in is a strong tool. But I agree with you, many of the didn’t vote last time don’t knows being sampled may not even vote next time.
So when it comes to the don’t know, we don’t know.
As Mike points to that “voted Tory now switched to Labour % column” saying it’s a low figure - do you know that figure from 97?
Switzerland is a small country that exports more to the EU than it imports. The UK is a large one that imports a lot more than it exports.
And I'm not suggesting we'd have a Swiss type arrangement that required (counts...) 210 separate Treaties, I'm suggesting that we're big enough to have a custom deal.
As sure as eggs is eggs.
People who can - literally - afford to be dismissive of a 50p hike in the price of a four pint bottle of milk or a box of eggs aren't the ones who are poor enough to be spending a large fraction of their incomes on basic food. If you're a high earner or well-off pensioner who's mortgage-free then you're going to be largely insulated from inflation, because much of your spending is discretionary and it's either going to be on goods and services where prices have been held down more effectively than those on food and fuel, or you can cut back and make fewer of them without it making a major impact on your standard of living.
Thus, the process for calculating inflation may very well be straightforward and transparent, but that doesn't mean that the measurements made aren't partial and of limited value.
This job would be a hell of a lot of easier without clients.
She reached for it, after a stumbling pause, but I for one believe Liz Truss answered it honestly and paints a true picture for us.
She was being told the market will melt down unless you throw him into the volcano to indicate an abrupt u turn. To avoid a market melt down she was led to believe was coming, she had to sack her chancellor, who only found out his about his sacking from seeing it on the news?
But now learning that she believed there would be meltdown unless indicating abrupt u turn, and she done that abrupt u turn, does undermine the argument she didn’t do much wrong. Doesn’t it?
You tend to see a reduction in the number of don't knows as polling day approaches. This may signify a return to the fold, or 'swingback' as some would have it.
As strawclutching goes, it's desperate stuff though when you are 20+ adrift.
I never want to hear from her ever again.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-53/
"DAN can generate shocking, very cool and confident takes on topics the OG ChatGPT would never take on."
https://twitter.com/AlphaSignalAI/status/1622657921543806977
BTW I watched confessions of a window cleaner last week. So many great pairs of tits in it. I want to live in a country proud to be making films like that again.
Average rent for a room in London is actually now £935 a month. That's for a room in a houseshare, mind. Not a flat.
https://www.cityam.com/average-london-rents-near-1000-and-are-unlikely-to-fall-in-2023-spareroom/
A quick glance at spareroom.co.uk suggests £900ish a month is the going rate for a room in Dalston these days.
He also decided to seek alternative legal representation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Come on, you trying to start an oxymoron contest?
https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/criminal-justice/sarah-beth-clendaniel-fbi-energy-substation-plot-KLTNJHK3FNBG5JHT7THIR3GQAY/
Mike Smithson keeps pointing to the current small number of switchers to Labour from 2019 Tory voters - if we knew the 97 election total who switched to Labour from 92 Tory, it would be an excellent measure if Labour are on course or not?
To survive in politics, you need a degree of confidence that looks like arrogance to normal people. "I basically got it right but was let down by minions" is the standard message of pretty much every political memoir.
What's unusual about the Trusster is that she's going so public so quickly, and that she genuinely seems to think that there's a way back for her.
BREAKING:
Rishi Sunak to announce mini-reshuffle tomorrow and is considering up major changes to Whitehall departments
He's replacing Nadhim Zahawi as Tory chair but some in govt think it's much more far-reaching
He's looking at refocusing Whitehall to reflect his priorities.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1622700764312350721
Has any departmental re-org made things better? The usual consequence is everyone spends a week redoing letterheads, I think.
I had forgotten, so thanks for that. I think my labour vote in 2024 will be punishment for Truss more than no confidence in Sunak.
It comes across as throwing someone into a volcano to prevent a market crash, as your Shaman are telling you that’s what the markets demand.
Don’t you believe top level politics and economy management operates like that?
But then, I want a Labour landslide.
There's also a certain element of perpetual doom around the arguments used by the Jacks Monroe of this world - the idea that at all times life was better for almost everyone 6 months ago, which is really just a kind of reactionary conservatism.