These were the people supposed to benefit from Brexit, I thought ?
“The poorest fifth of the population are now much poorer [in the UK] than most of the poorest countries in central and eastern Europe,” says @MyStephanomics. “They would be better off in quite poor countries in the European Union.” https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1621219401713287174
What's the actual stat here? I don't do Sh*tter. Poorer than the said quintile in said countries, or than the median there?
Extremely unlikely they're poorer than the bottom quintile there.
And which countries anyway? The poorest countries in C and E Europe don't belong to the EU. They are Ukraine and Moldova and if we count SE Europe then Kosovo and Albania join them in the bottom four.
They were poor when we were in the EU and getting relatively poorer each year.
Voting to change the status quo was the sensible thing to do,
So they can get poorer faster...
Voting Leave was never the sensible choice, unless you were a disaster capitalist
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did. Those making a comfortable living out of the EU obviously didnt like the change and are now the Lumpenbourgeoisie complaining that they are hard done by and pretending they give a shit about the poor end of society.
More that if you are in an academically credentialed office job at the high end, it was awesome times. Ever cheaper consumer goods, services falling in relative terms. Due to world wide skill shortages, your wages rising faster than even house prices (well, sometimes) as you rise the career ladder.
At the other end of life, there were people seeing pay cuts each time a job goes away, some trades moving to minimum wage as the basic, staggering housing cost increases….
It’s a bit like lockdown.
If you have a big 4 bed house somewhere nice, big garden, some nice WFH jobs on big salaries, a family at home - when the weather is nice it is half way to a holiday. Knock off early for the BBQ….
If you are on your own in a 1 bed postage stamp with no pay because you were on zero hours, struggling along as a Deliveroo rider… you are not going to love the lot in the 4 bed house.
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
And just about every one of those comments applied when we were in the EU.
This is a critique of those who have run the country for the last 25 years and who for the most part waned to remain in the EU because they were doing well out of it,
Who mentioned Brexit before you did? It’s only a small part of the critique. Brexit just makes the underlying problems worse.
Good,
I see you share my view that Brexit doesnt have much impact and that most of the issues we face have been around for a long time. and not addressed by the political parties.
Brexit has a HUGE impact. Not in making us slide towards shitsville, but in amplyifying the effects of the fact that we have slid into shitsville. You make the same error as people who aren't grindingly poor who dismiss the £20 a week UC covid booster as "only" £20. Its only £20 to you. But when you're in shitsville its far more serious.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
So much of that article is immediately, provably, and irresponsibly wrong. Only a cretin like you or @DougSeal would swallow it whole
Just one example (amongst many):
“Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy."
Reality?
“According to preliminary 2021 data, the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2020 has had a negative effect with life expectancy at birth declining in almost half the EU Member States in 2021. The largest decreases have been estimated in Slovakia and Bulgaria (-2.2 years compared with 2020), followed by Latvia (-2.1) and Estonia (-2.0). Compared with the pre-pandemic year of 2019, the overall effect on life expectancies is still negative in all EU Member States except Luxembourg (+0.1), Malta and Sweden (same level in 2019 and 2021). In some cases, life expectancies have further worsened in 2021, leading to an estimated overall loss of more than 2 years. The largest decreases compared with 2019 were registered in Bulgaria (-3.7), Slovakia (-3.0), and Romania (-2.7). “
Haven't bothered to check his data or yours. But lets assume you are right - does that mean that the rest of it is wrong? We ARE sliding down shit alley, have been for decades and the evidence is surely so visible that even your tramadol-addled brain can recognise it.
I knew it was probably bollocks as soon as I saw it. You didn’t. Ask yourself why
Because I'm not on here off my head on drugs/alcohol/both endlessly shitposting about how AI / aliens / birdflu is about to kill us?
Chill out. You have utterly entrenched yourself in your political perspective. We understand that. But you display less flexibility and more hysteria that HY does. And that is saying something...
“He was previously deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, running the organisation's economics programme. He has also been chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute and performed a number of roles at the Economist Group. Simon has acted as an advisor to the European Commission,”
So, we can disregard his opinion for that reason? Is it an outcome of the referendum that only one side of the political spectrum be considered, close analysis of CV’s are needed, and anyone not a Spectator columnist can be binned. What, exactly, about his analysis to you disagree with? Or is it just who he is?
It’s hysterical Remoaner nonsense, from a Remoaner. I wouldn’t ignore it entirely, but I take it with a Russian salt mine of salt
I do the same with articles by ultra-Brexiteers who are desperate to prove Brexit is already working brilliantly
Just one sentence in that article gives you the flavour of the overall hyperbole
“On most measures, the UK has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States,”
QED
Quite apart from the fact that statement is true, let’s ignore it and ask what else is actually factually incorrect in there. We are the only European country with a declining life expectancy and we have the lowest inward investment of any G7 nation. Simply labelling him a “Remoaner” and “ hysterical” does not stop him being right. Which is is. The country is a mess, and Brexiteer boosterism from people like you can’t detract from the fact you made a catastrophic error, and sold it to the country. Which is now suffering from severe buyer’s remorse.
You’re just dim
The problem is Leon, and I say this reluctantly, you’re stupid. Really really dumb. And worse, you think you’re clever. You’re not.
Your table is for 2021 only, A snapshot of a pandemic common to all countries. But UK life expectancy has been declining since the financial crisis. After 2011, the post-financial crisis period the UK performed poorly, in almost all measures, compared to the (other for part of the period) 27 countries of the European Union. Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011 and, yes, Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. However, years of good health (called “Healthy Life Years”) at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both older men and women for the last decade.
Cherry picking a graph you have rapidly Googled just emphasises your intellectual paucity. You’re really not that bright mate. Sure, you’ve managed a superficially successful looking lifestyle, but your desire to boast about it on a political discussion board to a couple of dozen regular posters suggests a deep deep loneliness in your soul to match the obvious emptiness in your brain.
“He was previously deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, running the organisation's economics programme. He has also been chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute and performed a number of roles at the Economist Group. Simon has acted as an advisor to the European Commission,”
So, we can disregard his opinion for that reason? Is it an outcome of the referendum that only one side of the political spectrum be considered, close analysis of CV’s are needed, and anyone not a Spectator columnist can be binned. What, exactly, about his analysis to you disagree with? Or is it just who he is?
It’s hysterical Remoaner nonsense, from a Remoaner. I wouldn’t ignore it entirely, but I take it with a Russian salt mine of salt
I do the same with articles by ultra-Brexiteers who are desperate to prove Brexit is already working brilliantly
Just one sentence in that article gives you the flavour of the overall hyperbole
“On most measures, the UK has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States,”
QED
Absurd given Poland, Italy, Canada etc don't even have non contributory unemployment benefits like the UK does.
Neither does the US, nor even public healthcare, let alone an NHS!
It’s one of the maddest remarks I have ever seen in a serious journal
Anyone who has been to America in the last 10-20 years - or indeed ever - knows that the welfare state barely exists for the bottom quintile of Americans and that the bottom 5% are basically left to die in a way unthinkable in the UK
“He was previously deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, running the organisation's economics programme. He has also been chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute and performed a number of roles at the Economist Group. Simon has acted as an advisor to the European Commission,”
So, we can disregard his opinion for that reason? Is it an outcome of the referendum that only one side of the political spectrum be considered, close analysis of CV’s are needed, and anyone not a Spectator columnist can be binned. What, exactly, about his analysis to you disagree with? Or is it just who he is?
It’s hysterical Remoaner nonsense, from a Remoaner. I wouldn’t ignore it entirely, but I take it with a Russian salt mine of salt
I do the same with articles by ultra-Brexiteers who are desperate to prove Brexit is already working brilliantly
Just one sentence in that article gives you the flavour of the overall hyperbole
“On most measures, the UK has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States,”
QED
Quite apart from the fact that statement is true, let’s ignore it and ask what else is actually factually incorrect in there. We are the only European country with a declining life expectancy and we have the lowest inward investment of any G7 nation. Simply labelling him a “Remoaner” and “ hysterical” does not stop him being right. Which is is. The country is a mess, and Brexiteer boosterism from people like you can’t detract from the fact you made a catastrophic error, and sold it to the country. Which is now suffering from severe buyer’s remorse.
You’re just dim
The problem is Leon, and I say this reluctantly, you’re stupid. Really really dumb. And worse, you think you’re clever. You’re not.
Your table is for 2021 only, A snapshot of a pandemic common to all countries. But UK life expectancy has been declining since the financial crisis. After 2011, the post-financial crisis period the UK performed poorly, in almost all measures, compared to the (other for part of the period) 27 countries of the European Union. Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011 and, yes, Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. However, years of good health (called “Healthy Life Years”) at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both older men and women for the last decade.
Cherry picking a graph you have rapidly Googled just emphasises your intellectual paucity. You’re really not that bright mate. Sure, you’ve managed a superficially successful looking lifestyle, but your desire to boast about it on a political discussion board to a couple of dozen regular posters suggests a deep deep loneliness in your soul to match the obvious emptiness in your brain.
I’m actually going to make a formal request to the moderators that we introduce some kind of minimum IQ threshold for commenters. I don’t see how this retarded, mortifying, intellectually 20-watt drooling from the likes of @DougSeal and @RochdalePioneers benefits the site
It’s like you’re playing a nice game of football with your mates, in the park, then a sort of dwarvish gibbon runs on to the pitch and tries to eat the ball. It’s embarrassing for Doug and Rochdale, as much as anything else
You should get some training for your grumpy old man random insults from malcolm.....
That the liar Priti Patel has even been talked about as a possible chairman further illustrates what a mess the current Tory leadership finds itself in. A similar though not identical point could be made about Boris Johnson, whose chance of returning to the cabinet by the end of next week is at least higher than Patel's.
The next person to be appointed to the cabinet who is not currently a member would be a much more interesting market than the next person to leave it.
Next Tory chairman would also be a fascinating market.
As for a reshuffle, the Raab case may well cause a head or two to roll in the civil service. "Case" being the operative word.
Simon Case used to worked for the current prince of Wales when he had some other royal title.
There's a question as to whether the petulant narcissistic dimwit on the throne can pull himself together enough to bury the hatchet with Johnson who had the temerity to call him "condescending" over Rwanda. I doubt the 74yo can. That would mean growing up.
Then again, a hatchet can fit in many backs and the times they are a-changing. The sharp bits of the state tend to be populated by royalist loyalists, but nowadays they can't even run a f***ing seminar in Cambridge that they can be sure is closed to Russian intelligence, so... see the previous sentence.
Talking of the civil service, if we widen our perspective - and noting the Richard Sharp BBC and Boris story in passing - there's a non-front page story worth taking note of. Magistrates seem to have started to resign rather than obey orders to rubber-stamp warrants sought by utility companies to enter homes forcibly to install "prepayment meters". (Aka "your cash or your leccy" highwayman boxes.)
Don't say "mafia state"... But clearly magistrates don't feel as though they're in a position to say no. It's do what you're told by the Ministry of Justice on behalf of Big Energy or leave.
What was it that Benito Mussolini said about a cigarette paper?
Where I disagree with many analysts is that I don't draw a direct line from Tory problems at senior leadership level to Tory election defeat. Sure, if there were a general election tomorrow, they'd get creamed. But there is ample time. Sink a few refugee boats, deliver some polarising policies with associated buzzphrases and pictures and video clips, and it would take, what, 10 days to reach Con maj 50 level in the polls?
I was out with an Edinburgh Justice last night who told me that he almost universally refuses the applications to insert these meters into domestic premises. For commercial premises (he had one in a fish and chip shop this week) it is fair enough although it is still giving commercial organisations powers that the State aggregated to itself when energy was a state monopoly.
Whether his fellow Justices are so particular is less clear. The quality of the applications suggests not. They have about 8 statutory grounds on which they can get a warrant and the affidavit simply cuts and pastes them en masse into every application. When they are asked on oath why they have sworn these all apply they have no answer. If the other Justices were asking similar questions they wouldn't be so careless.
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
And just about every one of those comments applied when we were in the EU.
This is a critique of those who have run the country for the last 25 years and who for the most part waned to remain in the EU because they were doing well out of it,
Who mentioned Brexit before you did? It’s only a small part of the critique. Brexit just makes the underlying problems worse.
Good,
I see you share my view that Brexit doesnt have much impact and that most of the issues we face have been around for a long time. and not addressed by the political parties.
Brexit has a HUGE impact. Not in making us slide towards shitsville, but in amplyifying the effects of the fact that we have slid into shitsville. You make the same error as people who aren't grindingly poor who dismiss the £20 a week UC covid booster as "only" £20. Its only £20 to you. But when you're in shitsville its far more serious.
We are in shitsville.
No it doesnt. It is an inconvenience. HUGE as you put it is a pandemic or a tripling of energy costs. As ever remain just has to ramp everything to ludicrous Osbornesque levels. I was with my brother in NI this week and even there lifes just getting on as normal. People have jobs, no-ones eating grass and the supermarket shelves are full.
And since Ive spent most of my life working in stressed manufacturing companies ( last one in Stoke ) I dont actually need prissy lectures on how life at the bottom of the pile works. It's one of the main reasons I voted leave.
“He was previously deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, running the organisation's economics programme. He has also been chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute and performed a number of roles at the Economist Group. Simon has acted as an advisor to the European Commission,”
So, we can disregard his opinion for that reason? Is it an outcome of the referendum that only one side of the political spectrum be considered, close analysis of CV’s are needed, and anyone not a Spectator columnist can be binned. What, exactly, about his analysis to you disagree with? Or is it just who he is?
It’s hysterical Remoaner nonsense, from a Remoaner. I wouldn’t ignore it entirely, but I take it with a Russian salt mine of salt
I do the same with articles by ultra-Brexiteers who are desperate to prove Brexit is already working brilliantly
Just one sentence in that article gives you the flavour of the overall hyperbole
“On most measures, the UK has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States,”
QED
Quite apart from the fact that statement is true, let’s ignore it and ask what else is actually factually incorrect in there. We are the only European country with a declining life expectancy and we have the lowest inward investment of any G7 nation. Simply labelling him a “Remoaner” and “ hysterical” does not stop him being right. Which is is. The country is a mess, and Brexiteer boosterism from people like you can’t detract from the fact you made a catastrophic error, and sold it to the country. Which is now suffering from severe buyer’s remorse.
You’re just dim
The problem is Leon, and I say this reluctantly, you’re stupid. Really really dumb. And worse, you think you’re clever. You’re not.
Your table is for 2021 only, A snapshot of a pandemic common to all countries. But UK life expectancy has been declining since the financial crisis. After 2011, the post-financial crisis period the UK performed poorly, in almost all measures, compared to the (other for part of the period) 27 countries of the European Union. Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011 and, yes, Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. However, years of good health (called “Healthy Life Years”) at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both older men and women for the last decade.
Cherry picking a graph you have rapidly Googled just emphasises your intellectual paucity. You’re really not that bright mate. Sure, you’ve managed a superficially successful looking lifestyle, but your desire to boast about it on a political discussion board to a couple of dozen regular posters suggests a deep deep loneliness in your soul to match the obvious emptiness in your brain.
“He was previously deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, running the organisation's economics programme. He has also been chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute and performed a number of roles at the Economist Group. Simon has acted as an advisor to the European Commission,”
So, we can disregard his opinion for that reason? Is it an outcome of the referendum that only one side of the political spectrum be considered, close analysis of CV’s are needed, and anyone not a Spectator columnist can be binned. What, exactly, about his analysis to you disagree with? Or is it just who he is?
It’s hysterical Remoaner nonsense, from a Remoaner. I wouldn’t ignore it entirely, but I take it with a Russian salt mine of salt
I do the same with articles by ultra-Brexiteers who are desperate to prove Brexit is already working brilliantly
Just one sentence in that article gives you the flavour of the overall hyperbole
“On most measures, the UK has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States,”
QED
Quite apart from the fact that statement is true, let’s ignore it and ask what else is actually factually incorrect in there. We are the only European country with a declining life expectancy and we have the lowest inward investment of any G7 nation. Simply labelling him a “Remoaner” and “ hysterical” does not stop him being right. Which is is. The country is a mess, and Brexiteer boosterism from people like you can’t detract from the fact you made a catastrophic error, and sold it to the country. Which is now suffering from severe buyer’s remorse.
You’re just dim
The problem is Leon, and I say this reluctantly, you’re stupid. Really really dumb. And worse, you think you’re clever. You’re not.
Your table is for 2021 only, A snapshot of a pandemic common to all countries. But UK life expectancy has been declining since the financial crisis. After 2011, the post-financial crisis period the UK performed poorly, in almost all measures, compared to the (other for part of the period) 27 countries of the European Union. Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011 and, yes, Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. However, years of good health (called “Healthy Life Years”) at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both older men and women for the last decade.
Cherry picking a graph you have rapidly Googled just emphasises your intellectual paucity. You’re really not that bright mate. Sure, you’ve managed a superficially successful looking lifestyle, but your desire to boast about it on a political discussion board to a couple of dozen regular posters suggests a deep deep loneliness in your soul to match the obvious emptiness in your brain.
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
And just about every one of those comments applied when we were in the EU.
This is a critique of those who have run the country for the last 25 years and who for the most part waned to remain in the EU because they were doing well out of it,
Who mentioned Brexit before you did? It’s only a small part of the critique. Brexit just makes the underlying problems worse.
Good,
I see you share my view that Brexit doesnt have much impact and that most of the issues we face have been around for a long time. and not addressed by the political parties.
Brexit has a HUGE impact. Not in making us slide towards shitsville, but in amplyifying the effects of the fact that we have slid into shitsville. You make the same error as people who aren't grindingly poor who dismiss the £20 a week UC covid booster as "only" £20. Its only £20 to you. But when you're in shitsville its far more serious.
We are in shitsville.
No it doesnt. It is an inconvenience. HUGE as you put it is a pandemic or a tripling of energy costs. As ever remain just has to ramp everything to ludicrous Osbornesque levels. I was with my brother in NI this week and even there lifes just getting on as normal. People have jobs, no-ones eating grass and the supermarket shelves are full.
And since Ive spent most of my life working in stressed manufacturing companies ( last one in Stoke ) I dont actually need prissy lectures on how life at the bottom of the pile works. It's one of the main reasons I voted leave.
I respect your personal experience. And not every business has been negatively impacted. But tbe data demonstrates you are in the minority position.
Brexit - specifically Johnson's "oven ready deal" and not the actual act of leaving the EU itself - has seriously detrimental impact onto business in general and our economic performance.
That is fact. There will always some winners in a losing situation. As I am now able to hawk my expertise in managing how a UK business deals with EU suppliers for fat fees, I am personally doing fine from the mess we are in. Doesn't mean I deny it's a mess.
Just glancing at the data tables behind the latest polls from PeoplePolling and Techne.
Looking at the former and the 2019 Conservative GE vote splits 37% Conservative, 29% Don't Know, 11% Labour and 9% Reform which seems out of line with other polls and may explain the lower Conservative vote share with this pollster.
My eye is also drawn to the London regional sub sample (Lab 60%, LD 13%, Con 11%) and Scotland (SNP 49%, lab 21%, LD 17%, Con 5%). NO giggling in the cheap seats, please.
On then to Techne and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 51% Conservative, 17% Labour, 11% Reform and 10% Don't Know.
29% DKs from the 2019 Conservative vote share in one poll and just 10% in another - hmmm...
It is perfectly feasible that the Scottish Liberal Democrats outpoll the Scottish Conservatives at the next GE (and have more seats*). SCon to SLD tactical unwind is going to be vicious in many rural areas.
Funnily enough, YouGov - the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples - also has the SLDs on an uptick. An interesting innovation in their latest tables is that they have started publishing the data by country. This is not completely new, but I cannot recall YouGov doing it before:
England Lab 50% Con 25% LD 9% Grn 7% Ref 7%
Scotland SNP 44% SLab 28% SCon 12% SLD 11% Grn 2%
Wales WLab 46% WCon 24% PC 14% Ref 9% Grn 2% WLD 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 2,006; Fieldwork: 31st January - 1st February 2023)
*Baxtered, those Scottish findings give (new boundaries): SNP 51 seats (+3) SLD 3 seats (+1) SLab 3 seats (+2) SCon 0 seats (-6)
Ah, but will the SCons (apart from 3 of their MSPs) reap the benefits of being the only party on the side of the women’s changing room obsessives & the SLDs be punished for unanimously backing the GRA bill? I stupidly watched QT from Glasgow and the narrative from ra peepul that they’d bussed in was that it’s the defining issue of the age.
I am genuinely interested to see how gender plays in a ge. It’s not unknown for JK Rowling to chat stupid shit about politics, I can see her making some big narcissistic statement about backing the only party that was on the side of women.
Rowling’s own party, Labour, backed the bill. Funnily enough, she doesn’t go on mad ad hominem attacks on Anas Sarwar.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
Merkel trashed the EU? ... lol.
The seasoned 'man of the world' avoidance of hyperbole is somewhat selective, I see.
Just glancing at the data tables behind the latest polls from PeoplePolling and Techne.
Looking at the former and the 2019 Conservative GE vote splits 37% Conservative, 29% Don't Know, 11% Labour and 9% Reform which seems out of line with other polls and may explain the lower Conservative vote share with this pollster.
My eye is also drawn to the London regional sub sample (Lab 60%, LD 13%, Con 11%) and Scotland (SNP 49%, lab 21%, LD 17%, Con 5%). NO giggling in the cheap seats, please.
On then to Techne and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 51% Conservative, 17% Labour, 11% Reform and 10% Don't Know.
29% DKs from the 2019 Conservative vote share in one poll and just 10% in another - hmmm...
It is perfectly feasible that the Scottish Liberal Democrats outpoll the Scottish Conservatives at the next GE (and have more seats*). SCon to SLD tactical unwind is going to be vicious in many rural areas.
Funnily enough, YouGov - the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples - also has the SLDs on an uptick. An interesting innovation in their latest tables is that they have started publishing the data by country. This is not completely new, but I cannot recall YouGov doing it before:
England Lab 50% Con 25% LD 9% Grn 7% Ref 7%
Scotland SNP 44% SLab 28% SCon 12% SLD 11% Grn 2%
Wales WLab 46% WCon 24% PC 14% Ref 9% Grn 2% WLD 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 2,006; Fieldwork: 31st January - 1st February 2023)
*Baxtered, those Scottish findings give (new boundaries): SNP 51 seats (+3) SLD 3 seats (+1) SLab 3 seats (+2) SCon 0 seats (-6)
Ah, but will the SCons (apart from 3 of their MSPs) reap the benefits of being the only party on the side of the women’s changing room obsessives & the SLDs be punished for unanimously backing the GRA bill? I stupidly watched QT from Glasgow and the narrative from ra peepul that they’d bussed in was that it’s the defining issue of the age.
I am genuinely interested to see how gender plays in a ge. It’s not unknown for JK Rowling to chat stupid shit about politics, I can see her making some big narcissistic statement about backing the only party that was on the side of women.
Rowling’s own party, Labour, backed the bill. Funnily enough, she doesn’t go on mad ad hominem attacks on Anas Sarwar.
The threats from Scots Nationalists JKR gets on social media include threats of physical harm and death. I don’t see JRK threatening to kill anyone, or maybe I missed that.
All over N Africa too. Like many opioids, higher recreational than actual pain killing value (for which paracetamol is hard to beat). I have stockpiles left from before I had new hips.
It is usefully self limiting, there is no incremental value in taking anything more than 300mg.
Raab backed Sunak for the leadership over Truss and Sunak needed Braverman's backing him not Boris to become PM last autumn. That is why they are in Cabinet
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
And just about every one of those comments applied when we were in the EU.
This is a critique of those who have run the country for the last 25 years and who for the most part waned to remain in the EU because they were doing well out of it,
Who mentioned Brexit before you did? It’s only a small part of the critique. Brexit just makes the underlying problems worse.
Good,
I see you share my view that Brexit doesnt have much impact and that most of the issues we face have been around for a long time. and not addressed by the political parties.
Brexit has a HUGE impact. Not in making us slide towards shitsville, but in amplyifying the effects of the fact that we have slid into shitsville. You make the same error as people who aren't grindingly poor who dismiss the £20 a week UC covid booster as "only" £20. Its only £20 to you. But when you're in shitsville its far more serious.
We are in shitsville.
No it doesnt. It is an inconvenience. HUGE as you put it is a pandemic or a tripling of energy costs. As ever remain just has to ramp everything to ludicrous Osbornesque levels. I was with my brother in NI this week and even there lifes just getting on as normal. People have jobs, no-ones eating grass and the supermarket shelves are full.
And since Ive spent most of my life working in stressed manufacturing companies ( last one in Stoke ) I dont actually need prissy lectures on how life at the bottom of the pile works. It's one of the main reasons I voted leave.
I respect your personal experience. And not every business has been negatively impacted. But tbe data demonstrates you are in the minority position.
Brexit - specifically Johnson's "oven ready deal" and not the actual act of leaving the EU itself - has seriously detrimental impact onto business in general and our economic performance.
That is fact. There will always some winners in a losing situation. As I am now able to hawk my expertise in managing how a UK business deals with EU suppliers for fat fees, I am personally doing fine from the mess we are in. Doesn't mean I deny it's a mess.
If youre doing well out of trade changes good luck. However the facts stand that the biggest impact on the UK economy over the last 3 years are Covid and Putin, everything else is loose change.
Mild boredom. They shut the hotel rooftop pool for some wedding party. Chiz
And I’d done all my day’s knapping by noon
I’m not about to become a tramadol fiend. It is pleasant - but no more than that
Weirdly in my trammy research I’ve discovered that Tramadol is the drug of choice in….. have a guess…. Egypt
Egypt?!!
Maybe you should try Adderall? It’s not guaranteed, but maybe if you were able to focus on what you’re writing for more than 30 seconds, the mind numbing rebarbative idiocy of 90% of your output may become clearer. Worth considering.
These were the people supposed to benefit from Brexit, I thought ?
“The poorest fifth of the population are now much poorer [in the UK] than most of the poorest countries in central and eastern Europe,” says @MyStephanomics. “They would be better off in quite poor countries in the European Union.” https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1621219401713287174
The fact they were dumb enough to think Brexit would help them kind of suggests why they might be poor in the first place.
They were poor when we were in the EU and getting relatively poorer each year.
Voting to change the status quo was the sensible thing to do,
Particularly as "levelling up" is also proving to be such a roaring success.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
Merkel trashed the EU? ... lol.
The seasoned 'man of the world' avoidance of hyperbole is somewhat selective, I see.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
You could also have mentioned the £12 billion/year in routine EU contributions we no longer have to make, the £8 billion/year that we can now spend as we see fit, and the constant danger that a smooth-talking crook like Blair might trick us into joining the euro or some EU army.
I'm not blind to the advantages of the EU - it makes life rather easier for the 11% of our economy that exports to the EU, and it makes living and working in other EU members much easier. But I'm actually surprised our EU membership lasted as long as it did. From the mid-90s I thought it was on borrowed time, and after Cameron made his pledge that any future treaty would need a referendum it was obvious that we were on our way out.
All over N Africa too. Like many opioids, higher recreational than actual pain killing value (for which paracetamol is hard to beat). I have stockpiles left from before I had new hips.
It is usefully self limiting, there is no incremental value in taking anything more than 300mg.
I find national variations in drug abuse absolutely fascinating. And baroque. Here in Thailand they are taking “K milk” which is
“A cocktail of narcotics made of ketamine laced with methamphetamine, heroin and the anti-anxiety medications or sleeping pills, all crushed up together resembling powdered milk.”
Tbh I’d try that. If REALLY bored - and terminally ill
They used to take a weird upper which was made in part from crushed lightbulbs IIRC
All over N Africa too. Like many opioids, higher recreational than actual pain killing value (for which paracetamol is hard to beat). I have stockpiles left from before I had new hips.
It is usefully self limiting, there is no incremental value in taking anything more than 300mg.
I find national variations in drug abuse absolutely fascinating. And baroque. Here in Thailand they are taking “K milk” which is
“A cocktail of narcotics made of ketamine laced with methamphetamine, heroin and the anti-anxiety medications or sleeping pills, all crushed up together resembling powdered milk.”
Tbh I’d try that. If REALLY bored - and terminally ill
They used to take a weird upper which was made in part from crushed lightbulbs IIRC
Reappointing Raab was not as ridiculous as reappointing, say, Braverman. Raab had been a big Sunak supporter, and whilst allegations of bullying are serious, such as emerged at the time were more him being a petty, histrionic person and probably not a nice guy to work for, rather than a smoking gun. Investigation may have opened up pandora's box and see him sunk, but it wasn't a guarantee.
These were the people supposed to benefit from Brexit, I thought ?
“The poorest fifth of the population are now much poorer [in the UK] than most of the poorest countries in central and eastern Europe,” says @MyStephanomics. “They would be better off in quite poor countries in the European Union.” https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1621219401713287174
The fact they were dumb enough to think Brexit would help them kind of suggests why they might be poor in the first place.
They were poor when we were in the EU and getting relatively poorer each year.
Voting to change the status quo was the sensible thing to do,
Particularly as "levelling up" is also proving to be such a roaring success.
10 years ago in our EU Nirvana levelling up wasnt even a thing, but the poverty and wasted opportunity were still there.Now the politicos will have to do something about it.
Sunak is hamstrung by the toxic inheritance of the Johnson years, when the clown promoted and preferred the unfit and marginalised or disposed of the able.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
I must be living in a parallel universe.
Thats the one in your head where you ignore whats happening around you.
Mild boredom. They shut the hotel rooftop pool for some wedding party. Chiz
And I’d done all my day’s knapping by noon
I’m not about to become a tramadol fiend. It is pleasant - but no more than that
Weirdly in my trammy research I’ve discovered that Tramadol is the drug of choice in….. have a guess…. Egypt
Egypt?!!
Maybe you should try Adderall? It’s not guaranteed, but maybe if you were able to focus on what you’re writing for more than 30 seconds, the mind numbing rebarbative idiocy of 90% of your output may become clearer. Worth considering.
Mild boredom. They shut the hotel rooftop pool for some wedding party. Chiz
And I’d done all my day’s knapping by noon
I’m not about to become a tramadol fiend. It is pleasant - but no more than that
Weirdly in my trammy research I’ve discovered that Tramadol is the drug of choice in….. have a guess…. Egypt
Egypt?!!
Maybe you should try Adderall? It’s not guaranteed, but maybe if you were able to focus on what you’re writing for more than 30 seconds, the mind numbing rebarbative idiocy of 90% of your output may become clearer. Worth considering.
Isn’t that meant to raise your IQ, at least temporarily? You should try it. Might elevate you to the intellectual capacity of a daffodil. And you might not make such humiliating statistical errors on a public forum
Some quite startling differences in propensity to actually cast a vote:
People responding 10 out of 10 Certain to Vote:
Remainers 70% Leavers 55%
Scotland 65% Wales 54% England 52%
Labour 2019 voters 75% Lib Dem 2019 voters 70% Tory 2019 voters 58%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 2,006; Fieldwork: 31st January - 1st February 2023)
The stay at homes end up killling a party's chances just as much as switchers sometimes.
Absolutely. “Sofa-sitters” can spell disaster for political parties. That is one reason why Starmer, Sturgeon and Drakeford do not want ‘landslide nailed-on’ to become the prevailing narrative in their respective countries. They need to instil some jeopardy to retain interest and motivation.
Yes, some important points here. The Seventies ended on an atmosphere of chaos, but that overshadows what was largely a successful decade:
"Across developed economies, the 1970s was not a worse decade than the 1980s in terms of growth, productivity, and living standards. Even in the U.K., which was forced to borrow money from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1976, growth rates stacked up better in the 1970s than the 1980s, averaging 3.38 percent per year against 3.0 percent. The country ran a substantial trade deficit at the height of the so-called Barber Boom—named after the Conservative then-Chancellor Anthony Barber—but then surpluses for much of the rest of the decade. By contrast, the U.K. was running record trade deficits of almost 5 percent of GDP by 1989."
I note that your much derided forecast of the return of Ms Truss is becoming more plausible. It could be the black swan of the year!
The thing I find really irritating about that quote is the phrase 'then-Chancellor'. Will knappers please stop doing this in the context of ancient history? As a fairly well-informed reader I don't need to be reminded that Anthony Barber no longer struts his stuff at No. 11.
In betting news I see that it's 40 years since then-horse Shergar disappeared.
Sunak is hamstrung by the toxic inheritance of the Johnson years, when the clown promoted and preferred the unfit and marginalised or disposed of the able.
Yes, like Rishi Sunak.
It'd take a truly exceptional politician to sort out a political and government quagmire after 13 years of being in power and multiple severe crises, some their fault and some not. The sort that comes along once in a generation perhaps.
All over N Africa too. Like many opioids, higher recreational than actual pain killing value (for which paracetamol is hard to beat). I have stockpiles left from before I had new hips.
It is usefully self limiting, there is no incremental value in taking anything more than 300mg.
I find national variations in drug abuse absolutely fascinating. And baroque. Here in Thailand they are taking “K milk” which is
“A cocktail of narcotics made of ketamine laced with methamphetamine, heroin and the anti-anxiety medications or sleeping pills, all crushed up together resembling powdered milk.”
Tbh I’d try that. If REALLY bored - and terminally ill
They used to take a weird upper which was made in part from crushed lightbulbs IIRC
Tip from me: Don't eat light bulbs.
It’s a pretty good rule-of-thumb
Right. I’m off to the gym. On mild opioids favoured by working class Egyptians
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
Merkel trashed the EU? ... lol.
The seasoned 'man of the world' avoidance of hyperbole is somewhat selective, I see.
Some of us meet more europeans than others.
The 'tells' come thick and fast! - WE are europeans.
Some quite startling differences in propensity to actually cast a vote:
People responding 10 out of 10 Certain to Vote:
Remainers 70% Leavers 55%
Scotland 65% Wales 54% England 52%
Labour 2019 voters 75% Lib Dem 2019 voters 70% Tory 2019 voters 58%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 2,006; Fieldwork: 31st January - 1st February 2023)
The stay at homes end up killling a party's chances just as much as switchers sometimes.
Absolutely. “Sofa-sitters” can spell disaster for political parties. That is one reason why Starmer, Sturgeon and Drakeford do not want ‘landslide nailed-on’ to become the prevailing narrative in their respective countries. They need to instil some jeopardy to retain interest and motivation.
I'm actually not convinced of that. I think it can be true (polls end up being wrong sometimes), but I think (and it is only a gut reaction thing) that being natural worriers those on course for big wins fear just falling short due to soft supporters thinking it doesn't matter. I think sometimes the mood just shifts on the perennial 'It's time for change/Don't risk change' arguments, and the motivation sticks regardless of whether a party tries to pretend it isn't about to win massively.
The Tories were trying to persuade people that they were not on course for a big win in 2019, and sure some of us thought it was at least possible they might not (and were wrong), but I question whether most people thought it and if that affected whether they voted or not - I'm not sure people pay sufficient attention even at critical times to come to such conclusions.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
I must be living in a parallel universe.
Thats the one in your head where you ignore whats happening around you.
Hmmm. Think the boot might be on the other foot somehow.
The reality is now that that the UK has left the West, and it is now in the same boat as Russia and China in the sense that it is in thrall to a political ideology - Brexit - that overpowers economic logic.
I think trying to lump the UK into the same sort of international pariah that Russia and China are becoming is a little too far! I disagree.
Tusk said on our departure the door is always open. Macron's suggested getting the UK back in via some sort of EU-lite agreement. Many people suggest EFTA/EEA can still be a happy ending point (including me) and I'm fairly sure EFTA would be agreeable to our return.
We *could* go back into European organisations (just not the EU) but at the moment we are (incorrectly) choosing not to. I am hoping the government comes to their senses and realises now is not the time for ideological driven madness that the likes of Rees-Mogg and Farage push.
Sunak is hamstrung by the toxic inheritance of the Johnson years, when the clown promoted and preferred the unfit and marginalised or disposed of the able.
Yes, like Rishi Sunak.
It'd take a truly exceptional politician to sort out a political and government quagmire after 13 years of being in power and multiple severe crises, some their fault and some not. The sort that comes along once in a generation perhaps.
Sunak probably never had a chance, Truss neither.
And if they had been that once-in-a-generation saviour, we can be fairly sure of two things.
1. They wouldn't have touched BoJo with a bargepole.
2. BoJo would have done everything he could to get rid of them, because he fears rivals.
That's why the Conservatives will find it hard to turn this around before leaving the stage. Pretty much anyone who is available to try is disqualified by their association with Big Dog.
The answer to all these types of question is because Sunak was trying to unite all factions of the party.
A forlorn hope, I suspect. He needn't (and shouldn't) be factional but he does need to crack the whip on behaviour and standards or he'll just be viewed as weak.
The answer to all these types of question is because Sunak was trying to unite all factions of the party.
A forlorn hope, I suspect. He needn't (and shouldn't) be factional but he does need to crack the whip on behaviour and standards or he'll just be viewed as weak.
“He was previously deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, running the organisation's economics programme. He has also been chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute and performed a number of roles at the Economist Group. Simon has acted as an advisor to the European Commission,”
So, we can disregard his opinion for that reason? Is it an outcome of the referendum that only one side of the political spectrum be considered, close analysis of CV’s are needed, and anyone not a Spectator columnist can be binned. What, exactly, about his analysis to you disagree with? Or is it just who he is?
It’s hysterical Remoaner nonsense, from a Remoaner. I wouldn’t ignore it entirely, but I take it with a Russian salt mine of salt
I do the same with articles by ultra-Brexiteers who are desperate to prove Brexit is already working brilliantly
Just one sentence in that article gives you the flavour of the overall hyperbole
“On most measures, the UK has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States,”
QED
Quite apart from the fact that statement is true, let’s ignore it and ask what else is actually factually incorrect in there. We are the only European country with a declining life expectancy and we have the lowest inward investment of any G7 nation. Simply labelling him a “Remoaner” and “ hysterical” does not stop him being right. Which is is. The country is a mess, and Brexiteer boosterism from people like you can’t detract from the fact you made a catastrophic error, and sold it to the country. Which is now suffering from severe buyer’s remorse.
You’re just dim
The problem is Leon, and I say this reluctantly, you’re stupid. Really really dumb. And worse, you think you’re clever. You’re not.
Your table is for 2021 only, A snapshot of a pandemic common to all countries. But UK life expectancy has been declining since the financial crisis. After 2011, the post-financial crisis period the UK performed poorly, in almost all measures, compared to the (other for part of the period) 27 countries of the European Union. Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011 and, yes, Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. However, years of good health (called “Healthy Life Years”) at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both older men and women for the last decade.
Cherry picking a graph you have rapidly Googled just emphasises your intellectual paucity. You’re really not that bright mate. Sure, you’ve managed a superficially successful looking lifestyle, but your desire to boast about it on a political discussion board to a couple of dozen regular posters suggests a deep deep loneliness in your soul to match the obvious emptiness in your brain.
A little overdone.
I think your posts have been ludicrous this morning. @Leon is quite right to point out this is due to Brexit derangement syndrome.
Mild boredom. They shut the hotel rooftop pool for some wedding party. Chiz
And I’d done all my day’s knapping by noon
I’m not about to become a tramadol fiend. It is pleasant - but no more than that
Weirdly in my trammy research I’ve discovered that Tramadol is the drug of choice in….. have a guess…. Egypt
Egypt?!!
Maybe you should try Adderall? It’s not guaranteed, but maybe if you were able to focus on what you’re writing for more than 30 seconds, the mind numbing rebarbative idiocy of 90% of your output may become clearer. Worth considering.
Isn’t that meant to raise your IQ, at least temporarily? You should try it. Might elevate you to the intellectual capacity of a daffodil. And you might not make such humiliating statistical errors on a public forum
No, I made no statistical errors. I quoted a 2021 paper from Newcastle University (press release here - https://www.ncl.ac.uk/press/articles/archive/2021/02/uklifeexpectancydeclining/ ) I used last year in a presentation to clients of our employee benefits and pensions business. You, on the other hand, just cherry picked a graph showing a decline in life expectancy during a pandemic and pasted it in here. I then humiliated you by pointing that out.
I’m sorry Leon, but you’re not as bright as you think you are, and your attempts to denigrate me just expose your many deficiencies. Which (I’m guessing here) probably includes what’s in your pants, given your desperation to overcompensate. Whichever way you look at it, I’m just better than you. It’s just life. You’re the Beta of the board. Even Malc is a few rungs above you.
🌹 that it’s “disgraceful” he’s been suspended from the PLP. 🌹 that members of his shadow cabinet sought to undermine his leadership 🌹 that he wouldn’t be arming Ukraine with weapons they could use “to invade Russia”
The answer to all these types of question is because Sunak was trying to unite all factions of the party.
A forlorn hope, I suspect. He needn't (and shouldn't) be factional but he does need to crack the whip on behaviour and standards or he'll just be viewed as weak.
It's a difficult situation for him, since if he does genuinely crack the whip on behaviour and standards the MPs will hate him for it, and that itself will render him very weak.
Oh sure, they'll claim otherwise, and may even sincerely believe it, but you only have to look at some of the contrary reactions about the unfairness of how Zahawi was sacked to show that no matter the justified nature of a sacking some people will sympathise with the sacker, and in cases less clear cut than that the disaffected will rally to them, and their number will grow. They'll become more riotous and malcontented, and weaken his position.
The public, meanwhile, will just see the bad parts and not the getting tough on it, if it happens.
That's why parties in power a long time get so lazy about standards and behaviour - the individuals will never see their behaviour as wrong, so when they are subject to a cracked whip they will think it unfair. They support Sunak getting tough on Standards, oh my yes, but not if it impacts them.
Yes, some important points here. The Seventies ended on an atmosphere of chaos, but that overshadows what was largely a successful decade:
"Across developed economies, the 1970s was not a worse decade than the 1980s in terms of growth, productivity, and living standards. Even in the U.K., which was forced to borrow money from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1976, growth rates stacked up better in the 1970s than the 1980s, averaging 3.38 percent per year against 3.0 percent. The country ran a substantial trade deficit at the height of the so-called Barber Boom—named after the Conservative then-Chancellor Anthony Barber—but then surpluses for much of the rest of the decade. By contrast, the U.K. was running record trade deficits of almost 5 percent of GDP by 1989."
I note that your much derided forecast of the return of Ms Truss is becoming more plausible. It could be the black swan of the year!
The thing I find really irritating about that quote is the phrase 'then-Chancellor'. Will knappers please stop doing this in the context of ancient history? As a fairly well-informed reader I don't need to be reminded that Anthony Barber no longer struts his stuff at No. 11.
In betting news I see that it's 40 years since then-horse Shergar disappeared.
The then-XXX remains useful when someone is famous for more than one role. E.g. then-Chancellor v. then-Prime Minister for Gordon Brown (as those administrations start to become ancient history)
All over N Africa too. Like many opioids, higher recreational than actual pain killing value (for which paracetamol is hard to beat). I have stockpiles left from before I had new hips.
It is usefully self limiting, there is no incremental value in taking anything more than 300mg.
I find national variations in drug abuse absolutely fascinating. And baroque. Here in Thailand they are taking “K milk” which is
“A cocktail of narcotics made of ketamine laced with methamphetamine, heroin and the anti-anxiety medications or sleeping pills, all crushed up together resembling powdered milk.”
Tbh I’d try that. If REALLY bored - and terminally ill
They used to take a weird upper which was made in part from crushed lightbulbs IIRC
Tip from me: Don't eat light bulbs.
It’s a pretty good rule-of-thumb
Right. I’m off to the gym. On mild opioids favoured by working class Egyptians
Yes, me too. Can't be arsed with the mad obsessives on here that want to daily masturbate themselves into a self-righteous frenzy over Brexit, and if I stay I'll get sucked into it - again.
There is much more to life than endlessly repeating the same debate with anonymous posters on an Internet chat forum.
Voting leave was sensible for lots of people and they did.
Which is why they are now delighted, and Brexit is more popular than ever.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
I dont consider it a disaster that we could vaccinate at our own pace, dont have to share energy to keep the german chemcial industry going, are not on the hook for billions to pay of EU recovery programmes and can support Ukraine as we wish.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
Merkel trashed the EU? ... lol.
The seasoned 'man of the world' avoidance of hyperbole is somewhat selective, I see.
Mild boredom. They shut the hotel rooftop pool for some wedding party. Chiz
And I’d done all my day’s knapping by noon
I’m not about to become a tramadol fiend. It is pleasant - but no more than that
Weirdly in my trammy research I’ve discovered that Tramadol is the drug of choice in….. have a guess…. Egypt
Egypt?!!
Maybe you should try Adderall? It’s not guaranteed, but maybe if you were able to focus on what you’re writing for more than 30 seconds, the mind numbing rebarbative idiocy of 90% of your output may become clearer. Worth considering.
Isn’t that meant to raise your IQ, at least temporarily? You should try it. Might elevate you to the intellectual capacity of a daffodil. And you might not make such humiliating statistical errors on a public forum
No, I made no statistical errors. I quoted a 2021 paper from Newcastle University (press release here - https://www.ncl.ac.uk/press/articles/archive/2021/02/uklifeexpectancydeclining/ ) I used last year in a presentation to clients of our employee benefits and pensions business. You, on the other hand, just cherry picked a graph showing a decline in life expectancy during a pandemic and pasted it in here. I then humiliated you by pointing that out.
I’m sorry Leon, but you’re not as bright as you think you are, and your attempts to denigrate me just expose your many deficiencies. Which (I’m guessing here) probably includes what’s in your pants, given your desperation to overcompensate. Whichever way you look at it, I’m just better than you. It’s just life. You’re the Beta of the board. Even Malc is a few rungs above you.
Insults aside, and though the elucidation you later provided on life expectancy was interesting, is your initial statement about Britain vs. everywhere else in Europe not still incorrect?
🌹 that it’s “disgraceful” he’s been suspended from the PLP. 🌹 that members of his shadow cabinet sought to undermine his leadership 🌹 that he wouldn’t be arming Ukraine with weapons they could use “to invade Russia”
I'll say it...we dodged a bullet
I think it is fair to say one of the biggest issues Corbyn has, which informs many of his other problems, is he is a deeply arrogant man.
Not uncommon for a politician, sure, but his generally gentle demanour seems to fool people who should know better into thinking he is humble. He's probably a nice man to have a pleasant chat with, if you stay off politics. But his utter self confidence in his own superior morality, even as he argues with a straight face that Ukraine part, shows just how much he is incapable of critically analysing his own views even when his decades long held opinions crash against a very simple reality which rebuts them.
I'll grant he was probably undermined by some shadow cabinet members, but frankly that's a bit rich from a man who never saw it as a requirement to support the leader of his party. He was suspended for a reason, lied about what he had meant in the statement that saw him suspended (claiming preposterously afterwards not to mean what he directly said), and refuses to change his views, why should he be in the PLP? He seems to be opposed to everything the leadership wants, so why even object?
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
Real wages are certainly not lower than in 2004, and we do not have a more limited welfare state than the USA.
When people make baseless assertions, it undermines any point they’re trying to make.
All over N Africa too. Like many opioids, higher recreational than actual pain killing value (for which paracetamol is hard to beat). I have stockpiles left from before I had new hips.
It is usefully self limiting, there is no incremental value in taking anything more than 300mg.
I find national variations in drug abuse absolutely fascinating. And baroque. Here in Thailand they are taking “K milk” which is
“A cocktail of narcotics made of ketamine laced with methamphetamine, heroin and the anti-anxiety medications or sleeping pills, all crushed up together resembling powdered milk.”
Tbh I’d try that. If REALLY bored - and terminally ill
They used to take a weird upper which was made in part from crushed lightbulbs IIRC
Tip from me: Don't eat light bulbs.
It’s a pretty good rule-of-thumb
Right. I’m off to the gym. On mild opioids favoured by working class Egyptians
Yes, me too. Can't be arsed with the mad obsessives on here that want to daily masturbate themselves into a self-righteous frenzy over Brexit, and if I stay I'll get sucked into it - again.
There is much more to life than endlessly repeating the same debate with anonymous posters on an Internet chat forum.
Good day.
I'm not off to the gym but instead am having a coffee. However I shall not be joining in on the never ending Brexit debate on here either 👍
An extended 30min interview with Elisabeth Moutet about France and Macron wrt Ukraine from yesterday's Ukraine the Latest podcast, which may be of interest.
"Francis Dearnley interviews French journalist Anne-Elisabeth Moutet in a deep-dive on the role of France in this war."
Explores a couple of interesting ideas - one is that Mons Macron tried to create a new 'non political' tradition with En Marche, and has cut himself off - sometimes deliberately - from political experience. We are familiar with the slight debacle of the Intelligence Service, where M. Macron's personal appointee ended up resigning a few months later having called the invasion of Ukraine wrongly. But he also abolished the diplomatic corps and appointed ambassadorial staff from outside the pool of established experience.
Sunak is hamstrung by the toxic inheritance of the Johnson years, when the clown promoted and preferred the unfit and marginalised or disposed of the able.
Yes, like Rishi Sunak.
It'd take a truly exceptional politician to sort out a political and government quagmire after 13 years of being in power and multiple severe crises, some their fault and some not. The sort that comes along once in a generation perhaps.
Sunak probably never had a chance, Truss neither.
And if they had been that once-in-a-generation saviour, we can be fairly sure of two things.
1. They wouldn't have touched BoJo with a bargepole.
2. BoJo would have done everything he could to get rid of them, because he fears rivals.
That's why the Conservatives will find it hard to turn this around before leaving the stage. Pretty much anyone who is available to try is disqualified by their association with Big Dog.
These were the people supposed to benefit from Brexit, I thought ?
“The poorest fifth of the population are now much poorer [in the UK] than most of the poorest countries in central and eastern Europe,” says @MyStephanomics. “They would be better off in quite poor countries in the European Union.” https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1621219401713287174
The fact they were dumb enough to think Brexit would help them kind of suggests why they might be poor in the first place.
They were poor when we were in the EU and getting relatively poorer each year.
Voting to change the status quo was the sensible thing to do,
Particularly as "levelling up" is also proving to be such a roaring success.
10 years ago in our EU Nirvana levelling up wasnt even a thing, but the poverty and wasted opportunity were still there.Now the politicos will have to do something about it.
You can blame the Labour Party at a local level with impunity for their corruption and profligacy over the last seventy five years. You can also (but I doubt you will) blame 45 years of Conservative Party national governments for the same.
During the 1980s and 90s in particular, the UK was lavished with EU Social Fund grants which often weren't invested in infrastructure projects, so much as replacing paving slabs with cobblestones and such nonsense. We had our money back from the EU when we needed it, and we used our sovereignty to fritter it away. Dodgy builders, handy with the brown envelopes did just fine.
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
Real wages are certainly not lower than in 2004, and we do not have a more limited welfare state than the USA.
When people make baseless assertions, it undermines any point they’re trying to make.
I think we're in deep shit, but some of those claims just don't seem right.
Granted they are asserting that people thinking it cannot be that bad when it is is part of the problem, but some of those are very specific measurable claims which I think are likely to be contestable.
Sunak is hamstrung by the toxic inheritance of the Johnson years, when the clown promoted and preferred the unfit and marginalised or disposed of the able.
Yes, like Rishi Sunak.
It'd take a truly exceptional politician to sort out a political and government quagmire after 13 years of being in power and multiple severe crises, some their fault and some not. The sort that comes along once in a generation perhaps.
Sunak probably never had a chance, Truss neither.
And if they had been that once-in-a-generation saviour, we can be fairly sure of two things.
1. They wouldn't have touched BoJo with a bargepole.
2. BoJo would have done everything he could to get rid of them, because he fears rivals.
That's why the Conservatives will find it hard to turn this around before leaving the stage. Pretty much anyone who is available to try is disqualified by their association with Big Dog.
On that basis a return for May surely beckons!
As often seems the case, its possible she was the right leader for the wrong time, and would do better now. Funny to think about, but it'd be amusing if they dug around for any remaining Cameron era ministers to try and present as the 2010 gang again.
Although with Hunt and Gove they kind of already have.
Leon should know something about this given he is in Thailand.
Thai princess collapses from heart condition. It turns this was a result of the #mRNA booster taken 23 days prior and the King of Thailand is actually considering nullifying the government contracts that protect Pfizer and Moderna from criminal charges.
What happens when a princess gets hurt, and a king is lied to? Pfizer could have a problem, that's what could happen, if one contract is torn up, they could all get torn up. Afterall, someone needs to be made a scapegoat. All eyes on Thailand.
🌹 that it’s “disgraceful” he’s been suspended from the PLP. 🌹 that members of his shadow cabinet sought to undermine his leadership 🌹 that he wouldn’t be arming Ukraine with weapons they could use “to invade Russia”
People known to me for decades are living as ex-pat Americans in Thailand. Two of them are outstanding, though now ‘retired’ into a different life, investigators. One worked for over 30 years as a US Naval officer, the last 15 of which were involved in criminal fraud cases. The other was an investigator for the Washington State Patrol, again, Criminal investigations.
Both are in resident in Bangkok these last few years. My ex-Navy friend is a serious linguist, concentrating on 7 Asian languages. That’s how I know him.
Rumors: They have revealed to me that several, different, sources, are reporting to them, that ‘something’, a really big ‘something’, is disturbing the Bangkok ‘underworld’. My guys have contact with it through a couple of martial arts dojos. Both are hearing the same rumors, ‘disturbance in the force’ kind of rumors.
The rumor to NOT listen to says that ‘assassins’ are being ‘recruited’ out of very deep holes in the martial arts world.
Leon should know something about this given he is in Thailand.
Thai princess collapses from heart condition. It turns this was a result of the #mRNA booster taken 23 days prior and the King of Thailand is actually considering nullifying the government contracts that protect Pfizer and Moderna from criminal charges.
It is incredibly depressing that in the almost 16 years since Blair left office, nobody even remotely of his level has led this country. What does that say?
Top Thai authorities including advisors to the King have been in discussions with Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi and are prepared to see to it that the Pfizer contracts are declared null and void!! The Royal Family has been alerted that the princess is most likely a victim of the jab!!
What happens when a princess gets hurt, and a king is lied to? Pfizer could have a problem, that's what could happen, if one contract is torn up, they could all get torn up. Afterall, someone needs to be made a scapegoat. All eyes on Thailand.
🌹 that it’s “disgraceful” he’s been suspended from the PLP. 🌹 that members of his shadow cabinet sought to undermine his leadership 🌹 that he wouldn’t be arming Ukraine with weapons they could use “to invade Russia”
I'll say it...we dodged a bullet
Yes, an absolute winker.
Starmer fans please explain.
Jeremy Corbyn seems to have no respect whatsoever for traditional Labour values - and even less respect since he left the job.
Which makes it puzzling why he'd want to be in the party, he clearly matches nothing of traditional or modern Labour.
People known to me for decades are living as ex-pat Americans in Thailand. Two of them are outstanding, though now ‘retired’ into a different life, investigators. One worked for over 30 years as a US Naval officer, the last 15 of which were involved in criminal fraud cases. The other was an investigator for the Washington State Patrol, again, Criminal investigations.
Both are in resident in Bangkok these last few years. My ex-Navy friend is a serious linguist, concentrating on 7 Asian languages. That’s how I know him.
Rumors: They have revealed to me that several, different, sources, are reporting to them, that ‘something’, a really big ‘something’, is disturbing the Bangkok ‘underworld’. My guys have contact with it through a couple of martial arts dojos. Both are hearing the same rumors, ‘disturbance in the force’ kind of rumors.
The rumor to NOT listen to says that ‘assassins’ are being ‘recruited’ out of very deep holes in the martial arts world.
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
Real wages are certainly not lower than in 2004, and we do not have a more limited welfare state than the USA.
When people make baseless assertions, it undermines any point they’re trying to make.
I think we're in deep shit, but some of those claims just don't seem right.
Granted they are asserting that people thinking it cannot be that bad when it is is part of the problem, but some of those are very specific measurable claims which I think are likely to be contestable.
Big Picture vs Small Picture.
You can have specific claims that are true in themselves, but which aren't an accurate reflection of the overall reality. Leon's thing about life expectancy changes across Europe in 2020-1 is presumably correct, but it don't change the big picture that life expectancy has been going the wrong way in the UK recently and that generally hasn't been happening in other parts of the continent. That's especially true of the rich stable countries of NW Europe that we tend to like to compare ourselves with.
It's like that data dump that John Burn-Murdoch did before Christmas (google "Britain’s winter of discontent is the inevitable result of austerity", or "Britain and the US are poor societies with some very rich people"). You can pick at some of the data points, quibble about whether the peer nations are the right ones. But that's to miss the point- that things are going worse in the UK then elsewhere. There are lots of reasons to not want to acknowledge that, but unless we do, we're not going to get anywhere.
Nothing new about this, of course. The line about using statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost is getting on for a century old.
Not good on the pilots either Steve Kirsch's newsletter: Pilots are dying at Southwest Airlines at over 6X the normal rate after the COVID vaccines rolled out
I just do not understand the minds of these anti vaxxers, who here are they convincing?
And what are they trying to convince anyone of? Almost everyone here is vaccinated. We can't unvaccinate ourselves. Those who aren't already do so out of choice. They can't double down on something they haven't done.
Leon should know something about this given he is in Thailand.
Thai princess collapses from heart condition. It turns this was a result of the #mRNA booster taken 23 days prior and the King of Thailand is actually considering nullifying the government contracts that protect Pfizer and Moderna from criminal charges.
Where does it say that? The BBC report it links to says no such thing.
From memory of 'More or Less' she was on the nutters list of 'European elite athletes who are under 35' who were in the stats to show that the mortality rate had rocketed for vaccinated people by comparing deaths of this group pre and post vaccine. See any problems at all with her being in the list? European? Elite Athlete?, Under 35?
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
Real wages are certainly not lower than in 2004, and we do not have a more limited welfare state than the USA.
When people make baseless assertions, it undermines any point they’re trying to make.
The real wage stat: the BBC say the UK matched the 2005 real wage peak in 2020. I'm sure the last years high inflation and relatively low wage growth has had some effect on this. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
So no not baseless but as always the stats are chosen. Also I see you're not contesting the inequality, declining life expectancy and growing generational gap in state support.
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
Anyone who thinks a large structural trade deficit is a problem shouldn't be advocating rejoining the single market.
Top Thai authorities including advisors to the King have been in discussions with Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi and are prepared to see to it that the Pfizer contracts are declared null and void!! The Royal Family has been alerted that the princess is most likely a victim of the jab!!
Top Thai authorities including advisors to the King have been in discussions with Prof. Sucharit Bhakdi and are prepared to see to it that the Pfizer contracts are declared null and void!! The Royal Family has been alerted that the princess is most likely a victim of the jab!!
That article offers a pretty damning summary of our position:
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point." "Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history." "the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States" "today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits." "Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy." "The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit." "business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7." "The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust." " there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative" "This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
Real wages are certainly not lower than in 2004, and we do not have a more limited welfare state than the USA.
When people make baseless assertions, it undermines any point they’re trying to make.
I think we're in deep shit, but some of those claims just don't seem right.
Granted they are asserting that people thinking it cannot be that bad when it is is part of the problem, but some of those are very specific measurable claims which I think are likely to be contestable.
Big Picture vs Small Picture.
You can have specific claims that are true in themselves, but which aren't an accurate reflection of the overall reality. Leon's thing about life expectancy changes across Europe in 2020-1 is presumably correct, but it don't change the big picture that life expectancy has been going the wrong way in the UK recently and that generally hasn't been happening in other parts of the continent.
But that just makes the point about being more careful about specific claims which are NOT true (or at least arguable), since including them is not necessary and will just allow the point to be undermined.
We see this in politics all the time of course. Take Boris - there's loads to criticise him about, yet plenty of people will still somehow be able to find things he didn't say or do and use that instead.
What happens when a princess gets hurt, and a king is lied to? Pfizer could have a problem, that's what could happen, if one contract is torn up, they could all get torn up. Afterall, someone needs to be made a scapegoat. All eyes on Thailand.
It is incredibly depressing that in the almost 16 years since Blair left office, nobody even remotely of his level has led this country. What does that say?
It says that the turnout at the next GE may be on the low side. At the moment it looks like a contest of dull v morally flawed v incompetent v can't win parties. There is no ground for an ideological contest (see Bagehot in this week's Economist), and no Thatcher/Blair to hand. Bet accordingly on turnout.
The usually Tory voters who are currently 'DK/won't vote' have little to get them away from daytime telly to go and vote.
The anti-vaxxers clearly won, you're the winners!" Scott Adams is now worried what is going to happen in 5 years time. So much for all his fancy analytics.
Comments
Extremely unlikely they're poorer than the bottom quintile there.
And which countries anyway? The poorest countries in C and E Europe don't belong to the EU. They are Ukraine and Moldova and if we count SE Europe then Kosovo and Albania join them in the bottom four.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-sees-fastest-wage-rises-sectors-most-reliant-eu-workers-indeed-2022-02-25/
At the other end of life, there were people seeing pay cuts each time a job goes away, some trades moving to minimum wage as the basic, staggering housing cost increases….
It’s a bit like lockdown.
If you have a big 4 bed house somewhere nice, big garden, some nice WFH jobs on big salaries, a family at home - when the weather is nice it is half way to a holiday. Knock off early for the BBQ….
If you are on your own in a 1 bed postage stamp with no pay because you were on zero hours, struggling along as a Deliveroo rider… you are not going to love the lot in the 4 bed house.
We are in shitsville.
The benefit for Remain inclined people is we are not being fed the constant diet of EU fk ups and expected to pay for them. Mrs Merkel led the EU for and trashed it , the bills are still coming in.
Chill out. You have utterly entrenched yourself in your political perspective. We understand that. But you display less flexibility and more hysteria that HY does. And that is saying something...
Your table is for 2021 only, A snapshot of a pandemic common to all countries. But UK life expectancy has been declining since the financial crisis. After 2011, the post-financial crisis period the UK performed poorly, in almost all measures, compared to the (other for part of the period) 27 countries of the European Union. Life expectancy at birth, and age 65, in the UK were increasing rapidly in 2008 but slowed around 2011 and, yes, Germany, Portugal and France showed evidence of a similar slowing. However, years of good health (called “Healthy Life Years”) at birth in the UK decreased, whereas it increased in most EU countries. The UK experienced a period of absolute expansion of unhealthy life in both older men and women for the last decade.
Cherry picking a graph you have rapidly Googled just emphasises your intellectual paucity. You’re really not that bright mate. Sure, you’ve managed a superficially successful looking lifestyle, but your desire to boast about it on a political discussion board to a couple of dozen regular posters suggests a deep deep loneliness in your soul to match the obvious emptiness in your brain.
Anyone who has been to America in the last 10-20 years - or indeed ever - knows that the welfare state barely exists for the bottom quintile of Americans and that the bottom 5% are basically left to die in a way unthinkable in the UK
The homeless of Los Angeles
https://twitter.com/streetpeoplela/status/1619088319400517632?s=46&t=RiQzKrjY81gqBhVlLCf6vg
Whether his fellow Justices are so particular is less clear. The quality of the applications suggests not. They have about 8 statutory grounds on which they can get a warrant and the affidavit simply cuts and pastes them en masse into every application. When they are asked on oath why they have sworn these all apply they have no answer. If the other Justices were asking similar questions they wouldn't be so careless.
And since Ive spent most of my life working in stressed manufacturing companies ( last one in Stoke ) I dont actually need prissy lectures on how life at the bottom of the pile works. It's one of the main reasons I voted leave.
And I’d done all my day’s knapping by noon
I’m not about to become a tramadol fiend. It is pleasant - but no more than that
Weirdly in my trammy research I’ve discovered that Tramadol is the drug of choice in….. have a guess…. Egypt
Egypt?!!
But the vaccines...
You mean the program initiated under EU rules
Brexit - specifically Johnson's "oven ready deal" and not the actual act of leaving the EU itself - has seriously detrimental impact onto business in general and our economic performance.
That is fact. There will always some winners in a losing situation. As I am now able to hawk my expertise in managing how a UK business deals with EU suppliers for fat fees, I am personally doing fine from the mess we are in. Doesn't mean I deny it's a mess.
The seasoned 'man of the world' avoidance of hyperbole is somewhat selective, I see.
All over N Africa too. Like many opioids, higher recreational than actual pain killing value (for which paracetamol is hard to beat). I have stockpiles left from before I had new hips.
It is usefully self limiting, there is no incremental value in taking anything more than 300mg.
I'm not blind to the advantages of the EU - it makes life rather easier for the 11% of our economy that exports to the EU, and it makes living and working in other EU members much easier. But I'm actually surprised our EU membership lasted as long as it did. From the mid-90s I thought it was on borrowed time, and after Cameron made his pledge that any future treaty would need a referendum it was obvious that we were on our way out.
“A cocktail of narcotics made of ketamine laced with methamphetamine, heroin and the anti-anxiety medications or sleeping pills, all crushed up together resembling powdered milk.”
Tbh I’d try that. If REALLY bored - and terminally ill
They used to take a weird upper which was made in part from crushed lightbulbs IIRC
People responding 10 out of 10 Certain to Vote:
Remainers 70%
Leavers 55%
Scotland 65%
Wales 54%
England 52%
Labour 2019 voters 75%
Lib Dem 2019 voters 70%
Tory 2019 voters 58%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 2,006; Fieldwork: 31st January - 1st February 2023)
In betting news I see that it's 40 years since then-horse Shergar disappeared.
Sunak probably never had a chance, Truss neither.
Right. I’m off to the gym. On mild opioids favoured by working class Egyptians
Nice to see you doing some posts again anyway.
The Tories were trying to persuade people that they were not on course for a big win in 2019, and sure some of us thought it was at least possible they might not (and were wrong), but I question whether most people thought it and if that affected whether they voted or not - I'm not sure people pay sufficient attention even at critical times to come to such conclusions.
I disagree.
Tusk said on our departure the door is always open. Macron's suggested getting the UK back in via some sort of EU-lite agreement.
Many people suggest EFTA/EEA can still be a happy ending point (including me) and I'm fairly sure EFTA would be agreeable to our return.
We *could* go back into European organisations (just not the EU) but at the moment we are (incorrectly) choosing not to.
I am hoping the government comes to their senses and realises now is not the time for ideological driven madness that the likes of Rees-Mogg and Farage push.
1. They wouldn't have touched BoJo with a bargepole.
2. BoJo would have done everything he could to get rid of them, because he fears rivals.
That's why the Conservatives will find it hard to turn this around before leaving the stage. Pretty much anyone who is available to try is disqualified by their association with Big Dog.
A forlorn hope, I suspect. He needn't (and shouldn't) be factional but he does need to crack the whip on behaviour and standards or he'll just be viewed as weak.
I think your posts have been ludicrous this morning. @Leon is quite right to point out this is due to Brexit derangement syndrome.
I’m sorry Leon, but you’re not as bright as you think you are, and your attempts to denigrate me just expose your many deficiencies. Which (I’m guessing here) probably includes what’s in your pants, given your desperation to overcompensate. Whichever way you look at it, I’m just better than you. It’s just life. You’re the Beta of the board. Even Malc is a few rungs above you.
🌹 that it’s “disgraceful” he’s been suspended from the PLP.
🌹 that members of his shadow cabinet sought to undermine his leadership
🌹 that he wouldn’t be arming Ukraine with weapons they could use “to invade Russia”
I'll say it...we dodged a bullet
Oh sure, they'll claim otherwise, and may even sincerely believe it, but you only have to look at some of the contrary reactions about the unfairness of how Zahawi was sacked to show that no matter the justified nature of a sacking some people will sympathise with the sacker, and in cases less clear cut than that the disaffected will rally to them, and their number will grow. They'll become more riotous and malcontented, and weaken his position.
The public, meanwhile, will just see the bad parts and not the getting tough on it, if it happens.
That's why parties in power a long time get so lazy about standards and behaviour - the individuals will never see their behaviour as wrong, so when they are subject to a cracked whip they will think it unfair. They support Sunak getting tough on Standards, oh my yes, but not if it impacts them.
In this case...not so much.
There is much more to life than endlessly repeating the same debate with anonymous posters on an Internet chat forum.
Good day.
Not uncommon for a politician, sure, but his generally gentle demanour seems to fool people who should know better into thinking he is humble. He's probably a nice man to have a pleasant chat with, if you stay off politics. But his utter self confidence in his own superior morality, even as he argues with a straight face that Ukraine part, shows just how much he is incapable of critically analysing his own views even when his decades long held opinions crash against a very simple reality which rebuts them.
I'll grant he was probably undermined by some shadow cabinet members, but frankly that's a bit rich from a man who never saw it as a requirement to support the leader of his party. He was suspended for a reason, lied about what he had meant in the statement that saw him suspended (claiming preposterously afterwards not to mean what he directly said), and refuses to change his views, why should he be in the PLP? He seems to be opposed to everything the leadership wants, so why even object?
When people make baseless assertions, it undermines any point they’re trying to make.
An extended 30min interview with Elisabeth Moutet about France and Macron wrt Ukraine from yesterday's Ukraine the Latest podcast, which may be of interest.
"Francis Dearnley interviews French journalist Anne-Elisabeth Moutet in a deep-dive on the role of France in this war."
Explores a couple of interesting ideas - one is that Mons Macron tried to create a new 'non political' tradition with En Marche, and has cut himself off - sometimes deliberately - from political experience. We are familiar with the slight debacle of the Intelligence Service, where M. Macron's personal appointee ended up resigning a few months later having called the invasion of Ukraine wrongly. But he also abolished the diplomatic corps and appointed ambassadorial staff from outside the pool of established experience.
https://youtu.be/rR3ALz7JREA?t=1784
During the 1980s and 90s in particular, the UK was lavished with EU Social Fund grants which often weren't invested in infrastructure projects, so much as replacing paving slabs with cobblestones and such nonsense. We had our money back from the EU when we needed it, and we used our sovereignty to fritter it
away. Dodgy builders, handy with the brown envelopes did just fine.
Granted they are asserting that people thinking it cannot be that bad when it is is part of the problem, but some of those are very specific measurable claims which I think are likely to be contestable.
Although with Hunt and Gove they kind of already have.
Thai princess collapses from heart condition.
It turns this was a result of the #mRNA booster taken 23 days prior and the King of Thailand is actually considering nullifying the government contracts that protect Pfizer and Moderna from criminal charges.
You dont f..k with the Thai royal family
https://twitter.com/nomegalomaniac/status/1621547231005270017?s=20&t=8TIZ1Nutnah93uS8VkjZWQ
https://twitter.com/wolsned/status/1621542907323863046?s=20&t=8TIZ1Nutnah93uS8VkjZWQ
Starmer fans please explain.
People known to me for decades are living as ex-pat Americans in Thailand. Two of them are outstanding, though now ‘retired’ into a different life, investigators. One worked for over 30 years as a US Naval officer, the last 15 of which were involved in criminal fraud cases. The other was an investigator for the Washington State Patrol, again, Criminal investigations.
Both are in resident in Bangkok these last few years. My ex-Navy friend is a serious linguist, concentrating on 7 Asian languages. That’s how I know him.
Rumors: They have revealed to me that several, different, sources, are reporting to them, that ‘something’, a really big ‘something’, is disturbing the Bangkok ‘underworld’. My guys have contact with it through a couple of martial arts dojos. Both are hearing the same rumors, ‘disturbance in the force’ kind of rumors.
The rumor to NOT listen to says that ‘assassins’ are being ‘recruited’ out of very deep holes in the martial arts world.
https://twitter.com/SaiKate108/status/1619565778612912129?s=20&t=7tgCYXhxrSGjW9O7N839fw
Which makes it puzzling why he'd want to be in the party, he clearly matches nothing of traditional or modern Labour.
What's the weather like in Langley today?
You can have specific claims that are true in themselves, but which aren't an accurate reflection of the overall reality. Leon's thing about life expectancy changes across Europe in 2020-1 is presumably correct, but it don't change the big picture that life expectancy has been going the wrong way in the UK recently and that generally hasn't been happening in other parts of the continent. That's especially true of the rich stable countries of NW Europe that we tend to like to compare ourselves with.
It's like that data dump that John Burn-Murdoch did before Christmas (google "Britain’s winter of discontent is the inevitable result of austerity", or "Britain and the US are poor societies with some very rich people"). You can pick at some of the data points, quibble about whether the peer nations are the right ones. But that's to miss the point- that things are going worse in the UK then elsewhere. There are lots of reasons to not want to acknowledge that, but unless we do, we're not going to get anywhere.
Nothing new about this, of course. The line about using statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost is getting on for a century old.
Steve Kirsch's newsletter: Pilots are dying at Southwest Airlines at over 6X the normal rate after the COVID vaccines rolled out
https://twitter.com/stkirsch/status/1619093946478563330?s=20&t=7tgCYXhxrSGjW9O7N839fw
Almost everyone here is vaccinated. We can't unvaccinate ourselves.
Those who aren't already do so out of choice. They can't double down on something they haven't done.
From memory of 'More or Less' she was on the nutters list of 'European elite athletes who are under 35' who were in the stats to show that the mortality rate had rocketed for vaccinated people by comparing deaths of this group pre and post vaccine. See any problems at all with her being in the list? European? Elite Athlete?, Under 35?
On this metric the UK does particularly badly.
The real wage stat: the BBC say the UK matched the 2005 real wage peak in 2020. I'm sure the last years high inflation and relatively low wage growth has had some effect on this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
So no not baseless but as always the stats are chosen. Also I see you're not contesting the inequality, declining life expectancy and growing generational gap in state support.
We see this in politics all the time of course. Take Boris - there's loads to criticise him about, yet plenty of people will still somehow be able to find things he didn't say or do and use that instead.
https://twitter.com/PTRUMPFORTX2020/status/1620641965019889664?s=20&t=7tgCYXhxrSGjW9O7N839fw
Bet accordingly on turnout.
The usually Tory voters who are currently 'DK/won't vote' have little to get them away from daytime telly to go and vote.
The anti-vaxxers clearly won, you're the winners!" Scott Adams is now worried what is going to happen in 5 years time. So much for all his fancy analytics.
https://twitter.com/wolsned/status/1617061740759359488?s=20&t=7tgCYXhxrSGjW9O7N839fw