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Why did Sunak reappoint Raab? – politicalbetting.com
Why did Sunak reappoint Raab? – politicalbetting.com
Saturday’s INDEPENDENT Digital: “Now top comedian says Raab ‘can’t tell Asians apart’ “ #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/sAbfqL8Jz8
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Bully for me.
Cos if it has, we know he will leaf soon.
Oops, beaten to it, as well.
An old fashioned wally, desperate to impress and prove that he’s as good as his predecessors. Poor judgment. He could have been written by Dickens as a bit of a tragic figure.
Sigh, this country is cursed with poor leaders.
I'm struggling to see a scandal-free Cabinet that doesn't see the PM toppled by a revolt of all those sacked.
If he thought he was in a weak position more fool him.
Mr. Doethur, you appear to be accusing the modern Conservative Party MPs of acting in a rational manner.
Remember they picked Boris Johnson. And then Liz Truss.
But she did have a majority of MPs onside.
Funnily enough, YouGov - the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical subsamples - also has the SLDs on an uptick. An interesting innovation in their latest tables is that they have started publishing the data by country. This is not completely new, but I cannot recall YouGov doing it before:
England
Lab 50%
Con 25%
LD 9%
Grn 7%
Ref 7%
Scotland
SNP 44%
SLab 28%
SCon 12%
SLD 11%
Grn 2%
Wales
WLab 46%
WCon 24%
PC 14%
Ref 9%
Grn 2%
WLD 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 2,006; Fieldwork: 31st January - 1st February 2023)
*Baxtered, those Scottish findings give (new boundaries):
SNP 51 seats (+3)
SLD 3 seats (+1)
SLab 3 seats (+2)
SCon 0 seats (-6)
Independence 51 seats (+3)
Subjugation 6 seats (-3)
He’s a lot weaker now - though not so weak that action is impossible.
His problem would be finding experienced, competent replacements (don’t laugh at the back).
1) I'm very sleepy.
2) Didn't she end up with a majority due to ship-jumping MPs?
Had he been a decisive individual, he’d have forced Boris out months earlier. Might even have had a chance of turning things around at that point.
2) she did get more endorsements during the summer but I don't recall them amounting to a 'majority.'
“When you have 24 allegations outst… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621780965499576321
https://youtu.be/_gIHU4McdDI
So far so good. It is like very mild heroin
“The poorest fifth of the population are now much poorer [in the UK] than most of the poorest countries in central and eastern Europe,” says
@MyStephanomics. “They would be better off in quite poor countries in the European Union.”
https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1621219401713287174
I am genuinely interested to see how gender plays in a ge. It’s not unknown for JK Rowling to chat stupid shit about politics, I can see her making some big narcissistic statement about backing the only party that was on the side of women.
Good morning, one and all!
In Stoke, for example, ISTR one person asked by the Mirror why he voted for Brexit said he thought his life couldn't get much worse and it would teach 'those rich bastards' a lesson.
Much as Donald Trump's election was not in fact about support for his policies - such as they were - but a 'brick through the window' of the west and east coast Democrats.
I wondered at the time whether it was a smart idea for Remain to parade lots of bankers saying they would be ruined if Brexit happened so it was a bad idea. I mean, in the context of 2008-16 that was giving people a positive reason to vote for it.
Is it a good way of making policy? Clearly not.
Is it entirely understandable given how badly we treat poor people in provincial areas? Oh, yes...
I’ve done most drugs and this one is not going to enslave me (as things stand). I feel mellow, comfortable, slightly drowsy, affable. It’s like super mild Xanax plus a hit of gin. It’s not intense or euphoric
@bpolitics: With the next election looming, Rishi Sunak's Tory party is trailing in the polls — and facing a funding crisis so… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621794619934531584
Reasons why became clear later...
Some people just have really bad luck and nobody to help them. I cannot blame these people for rolling the Brexit dice. Any dice. Who wouldn’t?
A shameful remark
As with Zahawi, Rishi will hang on until the maximum damage is done, look like he was forced into the sacking and thus get no credit.
I applaud you for the rent free accommodation you generously provide for so many of us itinerant Jocks in your knapper.
Someone who I have known for years has just come out as Trans. I hope it works for them, as it is a hard path to follow, but suppressing it had been causing real mental health problems. They are a sweet natured person, and either way it is tough.
https://www.irishtimes.com/
They are chucking a national mental on this issue - which is now a crisis
Is it bad to feel a certain schadenfreude? Our Celtic neighbours have delighted to sneer, with moral snootiness, at “racist Brexity Brits” for years
Now when they get a proper migration problem of their own, they discover it’s all a lot harder than they thought. And lots of Irish people aren’t so welcoming. At all
Things weren’t nearly this bad in the 1970s—but the country’s leaders haven't grasped that yet.” (£)
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/03/britain-worse-off-1970s/
Also, we should not forget the (in)famous "Short term pains for long term gains" with no indication of how long "short term" would be...
So some PB Leavers were fine with this, but I suspect that few of them lived in sink estates in Hartlepool or Stoke.
“He was previously deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, running the organisation's economics programme. He has also been chief economist at the Tony Blair Institute and performed a number of roles at the Economist Group. Simon has acted as an advisor to the European Commission,”
https://www.cer.eu/personnel/simon-tilford
I believe so
"Across developed economies, the 1970s was not a worse decade than the 1980s in terms of growth, productivity, and living standards. Even in the U.K., which was forced to borrow money from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1976, growth rates stacked up better in the 1970s than the 1980s, averaging 3.38 percent per year against 3.0 percent. The country ran a substantial trade deficit at the height of the so-called Barber Boom—named after the Conservative then-Chancellor Anthony Barber—but then surpluses for much of the rest of the decade. By contrast, the U.K. was running record trade deficits of almost 5 percent of GDP by 1989."
I note that your much derided forecast of the return of Ms Truss is becoming more plausible. It could be the black swan of the year!
https://twitter.com/MarinaPurkiss/status/1621765834514350080?t=5PLEw42c47FK94QsBcz09g&s=19
They just allowed themselves to be soothed by mantras about "no downsides" or "Nike swooshes". None of that makes them fit to run the country, but it doesn't make them bad people.
As for Rishi, he's inexperienced enough to not have known better, even if he's bright enough that he should have found out. But if I was talking to Mr and Mrs Sunak at a parents' evening, I think I'd be going down the "Rishi's not a bad lad, but he's made some bad choices and got in with the wrong crowd" line.
Voting to change the status quo was the sensible thing to do,
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/3853746/bbc-under-fire-failed-billy-mitchell-scots-ukip-question-time/
Even to be in the selection pool implies a certain interest in politics, so I'm not sure how representative tthose interested in it are.
On the second point - yes, agreed, absolutely. Was very surprised to be greeted by name by an unfamiliar lady when returning to my former workplace. On investigation she turned out to be a formerly male colleague! Seemed very cheerful, but it is an impressive commitment.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-sees-fastest-wage-rises-sectors-most-reliant-eu-workers-indeed-2022-02-25/
Voting Leave was never the sensible choice, unless you were a disaster capitalist
"The gap between the U.K.’s reality as portrayed by the dominant narrative of its economy’s performance and real life as experienced by its average citizen has widened to the breaking point."
"Average U.K. real wages are now lower than 18 years ago, which is unprecedented in the country’s peacetime economic history."
"the country has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States"
"today’s young Britons face paying far more in tax than they will ever receive back in terms of pensions and other benefits."
"Excess deaths have risen while Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy."
"The U.K. is also running a large, structural trade deficit."
"business investment is running at the lowest level in the G-7."
"The United Kingdom remains one of the most unequal developed countries to this day, according to the Equality Trust."
" there is an abiding belief that the U.K. must be performing well because it is run how an economy should be run according to the dominant narrative"
"This encourages denial about the scale of the country’s underperformance or a tendency to scapegoat others for it—be it the poor for being lazy or immigrants for consuming public services and scarce housing."
I do the same with articles by ultra-Brexiteers who are desperate to prove Brexit is already working brilliantly
Just one sentence in that article gives you the flavour of the overall hyperbole
“On most measures, the UK has the most limited welfare state of any developed country, including the United States,”
QED
This is a critique of those who have run the country for the last 25 years and who for the most part waned to remain in the EU because they were doing well out of it,
The next person to be appointed to the cabinet who is not currently a member would be a much more interesting market than the next person to leave it.
Next Tory chairman would also be a fascinating market.
As for a reshuffle, the Raab case may well cause a head or two to roll in the civil service. "Case" being the operative word.
Simon Case used to worked for the current prince of Wales when he had some other royal title.
There's a question as to whether the petulant narcissistic dimwit on the throne can pull himself together enough to bury the hatchet with Johnson who had the temerity to call him "condescending" over Rwanda. I doubt the 74yo can. That would mean growing up.
Then again, a hatchet can fit in many backs and the times they are a-changing. The sharp bits of the state tend to be populated by royalist loyalists, but nowadays they can't even run a f***ing seminar in Cambridge that they can be sure is closed to Russian intelligence, so... see the previous sentence.
Talking of the civil service, if we widen our perspective - and noting the Richard Sharp BBC and Boris story in passing - there's a non-front page story worth taking note of. Magistrates seem to have started to resign rather than obey orders to rubber-stamp warrants sought by utility companies to enter homes forcibly to install "prepayment meters". (Aka "your cash or your leccy" highwayman boxes.)
Don't say "mafia state"... But clearly magistrates don't feel as though they're in a position to say no. It's do what you're told by the Ministry of Justice on behalf of Big Energy or leave.
What was it that Benito Mussolini said about a cigarette paper?
Where I disagree with many analysts is that I don't draw a direct line from Tory problems at senior leadership level to Tory election defeat. Sure, if there were a general election tomorrow, they'd get creamed. But there is ample time. Sink a few refugee boats, deliver some polarising policies with associated buzzphrases and pictures and video clips, and it would take, what, 10 days to reach Con maj 50 level in the polls?
Truss might think she has the answers, but if she proved anything then it was how utterly unsuitable she was for public office let alone PM.
Oh, wait...
Brexit is a disaster. It was not sensible to vote for disaster.
Just one example (amongst many):
“Britain is the only country in Europe suffering from declining life expectancy."
Reality?
“According to preliminary 2021 data, the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2020 has had a negative effect with life expectancy at birth declining in almost half the EU Member States in 2021. The largest decreases have been estimated in Slovakia and Bulgaria (-2.2 years compared with 2020), followed by Latvia (-2.1) and Estonia (-2.0).
Compared with the pre-pandemic year of 2019, the overall effect on life expectancies is still negative in all EU Member States except Luxembourg (+0.1), Malta and Sweden (same level in 2019 and 2021). In some cases, life expectancies have further worsened in 2021, leading to an estimated overall loss of more than 2 years. The largest decreases compared with 2019 were registered in Bulgaria (-3.7), Slovakia (-3.0), and Romania (-2.7). “
Article in the local news a few days back from the local fishing body accepting that they allowed themselves to be used as the "poster boys" for Brexit. “But a lot have now reassessed their enthusiasm for Brexit because it has delivered nothing.
“It has left some very negative legacies and hasn’t provided any of the positives we were promised.”
Despite this, local Tory wazzock David Duguid goes around sneeringly insisting that Brexit has been brilliant for the fishing ports of Fraserburgh and Peterhead despite the views of the actual fishing industry. It is this "your lived experience is wrong, the evidence is wrong, its been brilliant and if you disagree it must be your fault" Tory attitude which will have them smashed at the general election.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/politics/scottish-politics/5342023/mike-park-brexit/
Stuart Rose wobbling chins while declaring that Brexit would cause pay rises was a defining moment. As a Remainer, I nearly started punching furniture at that one.
For some reason this reminds me of he occasion that someone attacked the horse I was riding. Instead of bolting, the horse kicked him into a different time zone. Is it a thing to celebrate - no. Is it understandable - yes.
This is why Starmer is being very cautious on freedom of movement. There are many people who believe that this will bring their wages back to minimum wage.
In politics, ignoring X because of who X is is a reasonable heuristic. Not only does it work as a debating point, but it's a quick way of deciding who to listen to, and it's better than nothing.
But if we're thinking about reality, it doesn't matter who is saying it. What matters is whether their description matches what's going on. Ignoring someone just because of who they are doesn't get you closer to the truth.
Part of our problem in Britain (and elsewhere, probably) is too much politics, not enough reality in government.
This is nothing to be proud of, however, because unless it is matched by counterbalancing investment abroad, and recently it has not been, it is simply a function of our desperately poor balance of trade.
I see you share my view that Brexit doesnt have much impact and that most of the issues we face have been around for a long time. and not addressed by the political parties.
It’s like you’re playing a nice game of football with your mates, in the park, then a sort of dwarvish gibbon runs on to the pitch and tries to eat the ball. It’s embarrassing for Doug and Rochdale, as much as anything else
Rishi Sunak is a weak prime minister, perhaps. Or perhaps he is in a position where he can afford not to care too much what people think of him. After all, he is very rich, and he took the job of prime minister due to the fact that there were really no other competent candidates available.
If Sunak is a weak PM, you have to look at who elected him. He was elected by Conservative MPs, backed by Conservative party members and ultimately the British electorate.
The UK is now a Brexit state, just as China and Russsia are authoritarian Communist or former Communist states. This is the real issue, and complaining about Sunak is a form of distraction.
The Brexit state is kept in place by the convenience of the two main political parties, like the voting system. Frankly, it is difficult to see a positive future for the UK.
Neither does the US, nor even public healthcare, let alone an NHS!
Mwaa. Your move next sweetie...