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The Tories should sack their ad agency – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    India predicted to overtake China in population in April this year.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited January 2023
    Unpopular said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Just to add: Clarkson looks about 70 he is so paunchy and jowly.

    He's on a slimming kick now.

    Some injection that stops you eating
    That injection, or some form it, will end obesity in the quite foreseeable future.
    It helps, with an average loss of 2 stone in this study, much better than the control group on conventional diet only.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183

    There is a NICE working party on it, so might become available on the NHS for obesity, not just for diabetes.

    A lot of my diabetes patients struggle to tolerate it.

    I think it it’s present form it is not a complete game changer, but as I understand it pharmas are finding ever better versions.

    Once they figure out a way to make it a gummy instead of an injection it will be quite profound. Certainly, I expect obesity to be eliminated for the reasonably well off within ten years.
    I expect Pharma to make a fortune from selling it. Do not expect it on the NHS
    I think it quite likely that NICE will support it, and therefore get NHS funding.

    Can they afford it? Everyone and her dog will want it.
    I'm guessing it would have to be privates-in-a-vice eye wateringly expensive to not come out as a net-saving since the annual cost of treating obesity related illness seems to be nearly £6 billion. Obviously such a treatment wouldn't actually cure all obesity related illnesses but it makes sense that it could save the NHS a decent sum. How big is for NICE to determine, I guess?
    As well as the cost of this treatment, there'd also be the cost of treating the couldn't-stop-being-a-lardarse-until-Big-Pharma-came-to-save-me-with-slimming-pills types when they got ill with various complaints during all the extra years they'd live after shedding their spare tyres.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And apparently Clarkson has been dumped by Amazon Prime.

    He has stuffed himself big time, thought he was a smart arse but finds out he is just an arse.
    Not sure that’s true. If you watch the first episode of The Grand Tour, there is a montage of his sacking and it leads into a joyous new era. I suspect the same will happen again. It’s not as if the BBC and Amazon are the only options.
    It’s being reported that their contract will not be renewed when it expires in a couple of years’ time, much more to do with falling audiences, especially in the US, than any more recent ‘incidents’.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2023/01/17/real-reason-behind-amazons-jeremy-clarkson-cancellation/
    It is worth noting that the shine had rather come off Top Gear UK when they had their falling out.

    I do wonder if Clarkson has managed to make this about "woke" rather than declining viewership.
    Jeremy Clarkson is 62. He’ll be 64 when his contract expires. Very few TV stars go beyond their late 60s. Woke or non Woke, his TV career is near its end

    He’ll be writing irascible and sometimes funny newspaper columns into his mid 70s, however

    For the last couple of years, the Grand Tour three have all looked like old men, even Hammond.
    Yes they do look old now. Tho the most recent Grand Tour episode was brilliantly funny. They still got it

    Just to add: Clarkson looks about 70 he is so paunchy and jowly. May looks quite mad. But Hammond is ageing even worse - in ways - because he is clearly trying to fight it with hair dye etc

    Unless you get it exactly right with a brilliant hair stylist (and maintain it impeccably) hair dye can actually make a man look OLDER (and weirder)

    I have - ahem - researched this topic
    I have a friend in his mid 60s, who looks great for his age.

    He dyes twice: once to get rid of the natural (abundant) grey, and a second time to a just enough grey to be believable.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    rcs1000 said:

    As far as I can tell, the reason we are getting fatter is very simply that we eat more processed calorie dense food than we did before.

    It’s not sugar, it’s not exercise, it’s not driving, it’s not carbs, it’s not reduced willpower, its not women going to work, it’s not seed oils, etc etc, although some or all might play a role.

    It’s processed food, according to Occam’s Razor.

    Very simply we invented things like “popcorn chicken” and we eat more and more of it, because it tastes bloody good. Britain is actually a world leader (think M&S readymeals) at such things.

    Sole factor fallacy.
    My language was too black and white, and it’s interesting to see the responses, but my intent was as to find a main culprit, not the sole one.

    But I think it’s good to try to find the leading suspect because that will inform policy decisions. I am skeptical of sugar taxes, and even more skeptical about passive cake eating.

    Also, if it’s about exercise, why are the richest, who are least likely to work in manual jobs, slimmer than the poorest, who are most likely?
  • rcs1000 said:

    As far as I can tell, the reason we are getting fatter is very simply that we eat more processed calorie dense food than we did before.

    It’s not sugar, it’s not exercise, it’s not driving, it’s not carbs, it’s not reduced willpower, its not women going to work, it’s not seed oils, etc etc, although some or all might play a role.

    It’s processed food, according to Occam’s Razor.

    Very simply we invented things like “popcorn chicken” and we eat more and more of it, because it tastes bloody good. Britain is actually a world leader (think M&S readymeals) at such things.

    Sole factor fallacy.
    And what is Occams razor doing there?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Scott_xP said:

    @steverichards14: RT @rtenews: Boris Johnson agreed in the final hours of the protocol negotiations that there'd be customs declarations on goods… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615428966516654080

    Boris didn't know what he was doing and lied to cover that up?

    It's not really news, is it?
    He had no choice really if he wanted the deal. The EU had us over a barrel because we couldn't leave without an agreement.
    Rubbish!

    The Leavers spent years telling us that "No Deal was better than a bad deal" and in no uncertain terms that they would leave without a deal.

    So, either they lied to us about No Deal being better than a bad deal or they lied to us about No Deal being an option.

    So your choices are: They lied to us, or, they lied to us.

    Choose!
    [snip!]
    Given that we could not then leave without a deal, the EU could impose whatever they liked, and we had little to no ability to resist.
    we picked the worst possible way to negotiate.
    Yes, we did. And the EU deserves some credit for giving us as good a deal as we got. I don't 'like' the EU as an institution, but I am not exercised particularly by it. Most of our European issues have come due to our own responses to Europe, and that has been true for centuries.

    What we should have done is had the ability to leave with no deal, even if such a step was not being considered seriously (we have a nuclear deterrent that works much the same). We would then have been negotiating on a more equal footing.

    I would also not have negotiated an FTA with the EU before leaving, but left it at least 5 years.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I'm not sure this comparison is super valid, but I admire the ability of opinion writers to string everything together.

    However, some 300 years before, in 1649, it was King Charles I’s tell-all autobiography, Eikon Basilike, or The Portraiture of His Sacred Majesty in his Solitudes and Sufferings, that had readers rushing to the shops, as The Times reports. 

    The book, published shortly after his own execution, was presented as his account of events leading up to his tragic demise. Perhaps, in the words of Prince Harry, he wanted to share his truth.


    https://www.tatler.com/article/charles-i-wrote-ghost-written-memoir?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    Andy_JS said:

    India predicted to overtake China in population in April this year.

    China's population is now in decline, and for those of working age, the drop is going to look pretty ugly pretty soon.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    The moment May compromised on the timetable (expected to be the battle of the year or some such by Davis), we were headed for sun-optimal Brexit.

    May is nowadays painted as the adult in the room, which she most certainly was compared with Boris, Frost and Cummings, but the pisspoor response to Brexit started under her leadership.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steverichards14: RT @rtenews: Boris Johnson agreed in the final hours of the protocol negotiations that there'd be customs declarations on goods… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615428966516654080

    Boris didn't know what he was doing and lied to cover that up?

    It's not really news, is it?
    He had no choice really if he wanted the deal. The EU had us over a barrel because we couldn't leave without an agreement.
    I'm sure I remember him saying otherwise, and people giving May tremendous amounts of crap for seemingly concluding the same thing. It's almost as though he just wanted to oust her (especially as he voted for her deal in the end).
    May deserved the crap because it was she who had failed to prepare.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Personally I don't need that much assistance in reducing my food intake, I have done it before and am at a point where I shall need to do so again. It's motivating myself to get off my fat arse that is a bigger difficulty.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Most interesting footage tonight was the Lord Advocate declining to answer questions about a legal challenge. Can’t go to court unless your lawyer says you have a stateable case. As Sturgeon grandstanded today she wasn’t even asked about this. Poor journalism.

    As @PeatWorrier pointed out on Reporting Scotland, standing the exact terms of s.35, the test for a successful Judicial Review would be a very high one. It’s not that Alister Jack was “wrong”. It is that he had no reasonable grounds for his view.

    That this was his legal advice more or less establishes reasonable belief per se. I would be far from surprised if the JR never sees the light of day.


    https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/1615424462769295393
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited January 2023
    Personally, I find I lose weight when I:

    Generally (but not maniacally) avoid carbs.
    Skip breakfast and try to avoid eating after 7pm.
    Exercise every second day.

    None of these is especially onerous unto itself, and the exercise has other benefits besides.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Most interesting footage tonight was the Lord Advocate declining to answer questions about a legal challenge. Can’t go to court unless your lawyer says you have a stateable case. As Sturgeon grandstanded today she wasn’t even asked about this. Poor journalism.

    As @PeatWorrier pointed out on Reporting Scotland, standing the exact terms of s.35, the test for a successful Judicial Review would be a very high one. It’s not that Alister Jack was “wrong”. It is that he had no reasonable grounds for his view.

    That this was his legal advice more or less establishes reasonable belief per se. I would be far from surprised if the JR never sees the light of day.


    https://twitter.com/ianssmart/status/1615424462769295393

    I'd have thought for her purposes applying for JR would be sufficient, even if it gets no further than that. Lawyers can decide a stateable case is pretty darn wide, if they want, even if the court will then not agree.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited January 2023

    Personally, I find I lose weight when I:

    Generally (but not maniacally) avoid carbs.
    Skip breakfast and try to avoid eating after 7pm.
    Exercise every second day.

    None of these is especially onerous unto itself, and the exercise has other benefits besides.

    I gave up alcohol in June last year and have lost around a stone so far. Hopefully that'll continue.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,003
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JohnRentoul: RT @JohnRentoul: Telegraph’s @Sherelle_E_J says Brexit is dead & Britain is likely to rejoin the EU, sooner than many people think… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615305021746208768

    A good piece by her. But weirdly you missed this


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/17/shortfall-of-330000-workers-in-uk-due-to-brexit-say-thinktanks


    “Shortfall of 330,000 workers in UK due to Brexit, say thinktanks
    Immigration from non-EU countries failed to take up slack after freedom of movement ended”

    The kicker, buried under the lede:


    “The research, entitled Early Impacts of the Post-Brexit Immigration System in the UK Labour Market, was produced by Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London and a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe, and John Springford, deputy director of the CER. “Overall, the new system is working broadly as Leave advocates promised,” they concluded.”
    Yes, though Brexiteers don't seem very keen on addressing Labour shortages by pay rises for the workers. See the header for details.
    I always thought the Brexiteers wanted to return to 1957, but I think I was out by 100 years. They would prefer us to slave away like 1857...
    1957 is a bit too late. Post Suez. In fact 1857 is a bit too late. Slavery had been abolished in UK and its possessions for about a score of years (if one regards the 'apprenticeship' system as thinly disguised slavery).

    Though the constant nostalgic hankering for capital punishment for such treasonable things as throwing an egg (often urged by the same persons who discuss the relative sexual attractions of specific female royals) does tend to obscure the question of what used to be done with trade unions. 1834 was when the Tolpuddle Martyrs got a free one way ticket to New South Wales or Botany Bay or whatever.
    It's always funny when Remainers talk to each other about what they think Leavers are like, all from their little Remain bubbles.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited January 2023
    WillG said:

    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @JohnRentoul: RT @JohnRentoul: Telegraph’s @Sherelle_E_J says Brexit is dead & Britain is likely to rejoin the EU, sooner than many people think… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615305021746208768

    A good piece by her. But weirdly you missed this


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/17/shortfall-of-330000-workers-in-uk-due-to-brexit-say-thinktanks


    “Shortfall of 330,000 workers in UK due to Brexit, say thinktanks
    Immigration from non-EU countries failed to take up slack after freedom of movement ended”

    The kicker, buried under the lede:


    “The research, entitled Early Impacts of the Post-Brexit Immigration System in the UK Labour Market, was produced by Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London and a senior fellow at UK in a Changing Europe, and John Springford, deputy director of the CER. “Overall, the new system is working broadly as Leave advocates promised,” they concluded.”
    Yes, though Brexiteers don't seem very keen on addressing Labour shortages by pay rises for the workers. See the header for details.
    I always thought the Brexiteers wanted to return to 1957, but I think I was out by 100 years. They would prefer us to slave away like 1857...
    1957 is a bit too late. Post Suez. In fact 1857 is a bit too late. Slavery had been abolished in UK and its possessions for about a score of years (if one regards the 'apprenticeship' system as thinly disguised slavery).

    Though the constant nostalgic hankering for capital punishment for such treasonable things as throwing an egg (often urged by the same persons who discuss the relative sexual attractions of specific female royals) does tend to obscure the question of what used to be done with trade unions. 1834 was when the Tolpuddle Martyrs got a free one way ticket to New South Wales or Botany Bay or whatever.
    It's always funny when Remainers talk to each other about what they think Leavers are like, all from their little Remain bubbles.
    It is difficult to think otherwise when Leavers provide such compelling evidence by what they say and do.

    See we can both make posts like that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @steverichards14: RT @rtenews: Boris Johnson agreed in the final hours of the protocol negotiations that there'd be customs declarations on goods… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615428966516654080

    Boris didn't know what he was doing and lied to cover that up?

    It's not really news, is it?
    He had no choice really if he wanted the deal. The EU had us over a barrel because we couldn't leave without an agreement.
    That's not true, we could always have left without an agreement, and (I suspect) that while there would have been a degree of turmoil, the effects would have been pretty short lived.
    Unfortunately, the MPs - and especially the Speaker - didn’t see it that way.
  • New thread.
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