Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

Starmer remains solid 71% favourite to be PM after the election – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • Options
    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself
    The whole advanced west will go Argentina and worse. More like Caracas.

    What's remarkable is how all the geniuses sagely nod their heads about the failure of the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget, but what was it, essentially, other than a nano version of what had been done since 2020 off the back of the new SARS variant? (Increase state spending - notably through the furlough schemes - without massively increasing taxes.) The dear old "markets" responded differently, as we know. How curious. The big question is why there wasn't a f***ing ginormous crash in 2020-22.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself

    (And, btw, both main parties are to blame for this, but the ideological impetus originates with the Left)
    Just as well, then, that your advice posted to this site has so often proved to be fallacious, if not ludicrous.

    The mess that this country faces is, to a significant degree, down to the prejudices of and mistakes made by people like you.
    It is high time you fucked your only friend. I sense a vulnerable dog, shuddering in Ventnor, even as I write
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,942
    Keir Starmer: "There’s no case for going back to the EU or going back into the single market."

    Sadiq Khan: "We need ... a pragmatic debate about the benefits of being a part of the single market."

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sadiq-khan-highlights-labour-splits-with-call-for-single-market-debate_uk_63c01d8ce4b0d6724fcb2fad
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself

    (And, btw, both main parties are to blame for this, but the ideological impetus originates with the Left)
    I am in awe of the ideological power of the Left, who seem able to exert phenomenal power over the policy direction of this country, despite being out of power for well over a decade, while the government has become progressively more and more right wing. The biggest reason for the young to get the fuck out of Britain is Brexit, which has harmed their economic future and cut them off from opportunities in Europe and which most of them voted against - although IIRC you were all for it!
    Also, you are barely in the country so have effectively fucked off already, so I applaud your consistency.
    “progressively more and more right wing.”

    Lol. I wish

    Put me in total power and I would show you what an ACTUAL right wing party looks like. You would hate it, but you would also recognise it for what it is. Actually right wing, and then you’d stop bleating about the pitiful modern Tories. You’d probably pay attention first when I brought back the death penalty
    Fortunately no one with a modicum of sanity would allow you anywhere near power.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,377
    DJ41 said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself
    The whole advanced west will go Argentina and worse. More like Caracas.

    What's remarkable is how all the geniuses sagely nod their heads about the failure of the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget, but what was it, essentially, other than a nano version of what had been done since 2020 off the back of the new SARS variant? (Increase state spending - notably through the furlough schemes - without massively increasing taxes.) The dear old "markets" responded differently, as we know. How curious. The big question is why there wasn't a f***ing ginormous crash in 2020-22.

    Sentiment.

    One thing the Tories had going for them was that they were considered fiscally dry. Which means that they wouldn't be printing money to pay for stuff they really really wanted (Corbynomics). This would lead to inflation and the exchange rate sliding, creating an effective (partial) default for overseas investors.

    It's the thing about government borrowing that some have still not grasped. You can borrow cheaply, as long as you don't borrow too much. And people believe they will get their money back.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,174
    DJ41 said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    Citizens of nowhere, eh?
    I am sure they'll buy themselves citizenship somewhere. But if they love money more than they love Britain, so be it.
    Fine, but that is exactly the criticism that May had - if you are not fixed to one place, you are a citizen of nowhere.

    I understand why they do it. If you can 'live' in another country and pay less tax, the attraction is there. That lifestyle is so far removed from how the rest of us live though. Its why tax policy is so complicated.
    See my other post. Live where they like, pay local taxes, offset those against their UK tax bill, no escaping UK tax while remaining a UK citizen just cos you're rich enough,
    Ah, the American system.
    Have to admit I like the American system. Advocates for it in the UK (and I include myself in that) would also have to accept the other side though - which is that these expats would still be allowed to vote in all the elections. No taxation without representation and all that.
    Isn't that what caught Boris Johnson out, so he had to relinquish his US citizenship and throw away his opportunity to be both UK PM and POTUS?
    It was the optics - which hadn't been so troublesome when he was mayor of London and then foreign secretary. Unless you know something about his tax affairs that hasn't been reported.

    How many British government ministers are citizens of other countries, or could successfully claim another country's citizenship at the drop of a hat, is unknown.
    No, I am sure Mr Johnson's financial affairs have always been in perfect order.
  • Options

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    Citizens of nowhere, eh?
    I am sure they'll buy themselves citizenship somewhere. But if they love money more than they love Britain, so be it.
    Fine, but that is exactly the criticism that May had - if you are not fixed to one place, you are a citizen of nowhere.

    I understand why they do it. If you can 'live' in another country and pay less tax, the attraction is there. That lifestyle is so far removed from how the rest of us live though. Its why tax policy is so complicated.
    See my other post. Live where they like, pay local taxes, offset those against their UK tax bill, no escaping UK tax while remaining a UK citizen just cos you're rich enough,
    Ah, the American system.
    Have to admit I like the American system. Advocates for it in the UK (and I include myself in that) would also have to accept the other side though - which is that these expats would still be allowed to vote in all the elections. No taxation without representation and all that.
    Isn't that what caught Boris Johnson out, so he had to relinquish his US citizenship and throw away his opportunity to be both UK PM and POTUS?
    Not quite.

    The tax offset is almost complete for income tax. The issue comes with Capital Gains on property. Which means that if you are a US citizen and sell a property abroad....

    Voting is quite hard for US citizens if you live aboard. Near impossible if you are settled abroad. IIRC you can vote in Florida by claiming you intend to reside there - but that is quite sketchy, I believe.
    "Voting is quite hard for US citizens if you live aboard. Near impossible if you are settled abroad. IIRC you can vote in Florida by claiming you intend to reside there - but that is quite sketchy, I believe."

    Sorry, but this is almost totally wrong.

    For starters, for US citizens, voting from abroad is EASY (in most jurisdictions, including WA State) PROVIDED that you have a legal residence in the US. AND registered to vote at that address, while providing your current mailing address to election authorities. Who will then mail you your ballot.

    In WA and number of other states, IF for some reason you don't receive your ballot via the mail, you can go online, print a ballot, then return it. ALONG with your signature and other info required to validate it.

    As for what constitutes a legal domicile for voting purposes, that is a whole branch of law, but suffice to say that (in most jurisdictions anyway) the test is the INTENT of the voter to reside at the US address, to return (or move) there in future.

    As for the sketchiness or otherwise of "claiming" to reside in Florida or any of the other 49 states, well, it's really NOT sketchy as a matter of law.

    Where folks CAN have issues with voting residency, is when they try to register and/or vote in more than one jurisdiction.

    OR when they decide to run for office in one state, but turns out there's a residency requirement - and the person in question was an active voter in another state AFTER the deadline. This happened in Oregon to the NYT columnist who wanted to run for Governor, but was ruled ineligible.

    OR when it turns out that someone claims voting residency in one state, but also claims TAX status as resident of ANOTHER state. For example, when Mitt Romney first ran for Governor of Massachusetts, and it was discovered that he'd claimed residency in Utah for (some) tax purposes. Romney's residency was challenged by Mass. Democrats, however state judges ruled in his favor. AND the voters it turns out gave him a break, because they believed Mitt was in fact (at that time) a bona fide resident of the Bay State, not the Beehive State.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    edited January 2023
    One way Britain is fucked - and this is not a partisan political point, just a cruel new reality - is Working from Home

    Fact is, the UK is a shit place to be for about 5 months of the year (8 if you’re talking about Manchester and 11 and a half if you mean Scotland)

    This was much less of an issue when people still needed to be near the work and the business. There was no choice. Yes Birmingham is hideous and Clapham is crowded and Glasgow is OMFG but you ain’t got no choice, sunshine. But new technology has changed all that, and the pandemic has crystallised this issue for millions of people. An awful lot of rich, clever, mobile netizens have realised they can work anywhere, and anywhere is not going to be Mud Island, which is overrun with unwanted immigrants and suffering a collapsing health system and is ALSO keen to impose higher and higher taxes on anyone dumb enough to stay in the UK

    Britain’s future is this: it will be the Ebbw Vale of the world. Those who stay behind will be those too old, poor and intellectually mediocre to get out



  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,106
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself

    (And, btw, both main parties are to blame for this, but the ideological impetus originates with the Left)
    I am in awe of the ideological power of the Left, who seem able to exert phenomenal power over the policy direction of this country, despite being out of power for well over a decade, while the government has become progressively more and more right wing. The biggest reason for the young to get the fuck out of Britain is Brexit, which has harmed their economic future and cut them off from opportunities in Europe and which most of them voted against - although IIRC you were all for it!
    Also, you are barely in the country so have effectively fucked off already, so I applaud your consistency.
    “progressively more and more right wing.”

    Lol. I wish

    Put me in total power and I would show you what an ACTUAL right wing party looks like. You would hate it, but you would also recognise it for what it is. Actually right wing. You’d probably pay attention first when I bring back the death penalty
    For sure the government has become more right wing. First we had the coalition with the Lib Dems, then Cameron, then May and then Johnson, each has been more right wing than the previous incarnation. Of course they could be more right wing, but they've become more like UKIP and less like liberal Conservatives over time.
    You’ve got to be a fatuous cretin to think that David Cameron’s Coalition Tories, or Boris Johnson’s tax and spend Heseltinies, were a sign of “more and more right wing” government. But then, you are a fatuous cretin, so here is one rare debate on which we can call closure
    Who pissed on your chips?
  • Options

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    Citizens of nowhere, eh?
    I am sure they'll buy themselves citizenship somewhere. But if they love money more than they love Britain, so be it.
    Fine, but that is exactly the criticism that May had - if you are not fixed to one place, you are a citizen of nowhere.

    I understand why they do it. If you can 'live' in another country and pay less tax, the attraction is there. That lifestyle is so far removed from how the rest of us live though. Its why tax policy is so complicated.
    See my other post. Live where they like, pay local taxes, offset those against their UK tax bill, no escaping UK tax while remaining a UK citizen just cos you're rich enough,
    Ah, the American system.
    Have to admit I like the American system. Advocates for it in the UK (and I include myself in that) would also have to accept the other side though - which is that these expats would still be allowed to vote in all the elections. No taxation without representation and all that.
    Isn't that what caught Boris Johnson out, so he had to relinquish his US citizenship and throw away his opportunity to be both UK PM and POTUS?
    I suppose he could always reapply (can he?). After all they can't take away the fact he was born in the US and so meets that qualification - unlike poor old Arnie who might have been a surprisingly good POTUS.
    He'd have been better than a fairly recent President I can think of, but I'm not terribly convinced it's citizenship that was the main obstacle to Arnie becoming President.

    He was extremely unpopular in California in the last couple of years of his period as Governor due to a combination of personal scandal and, ultimately, political failure. Nothing's impossible, but I suspect the reason he flirted with it a bit but never stood is that he didn't really see a credible route to election, leaving aside the obvious legal obstacle.

    Perhaps he might look at Trump and say, "if he did it with less of an obvious qualification, perhaps I could have done it". But - and this reflects well on Arnie - Trump ultimately did it because he was willing to be a dishonest, populist monster, whereas Arnie was and is a pretty well-meaning "compassionate conservative" type who had no interest in going down that path.
    Yep I can buy all of that. The shame of it is that actually he might have turned out to be quite good at it. My personal view from many years observing him both as a politician and a person is that he instinctively tries to do the right thing and is generally less of an egotist than most who seek political office.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself

    (And, btw, both main parties are to blame for this, but the ideological impetus originates with the Left)
    Just as well, then, that your advice posted to this site has so often proved to be fallacious, if not ludicrous.

    The mess that this country faces is, to a significant degree, down to the prejudices of and mistakes made by people like you.
    It is high time you fucked your only friend. I sense a vulnerable dog, shuddering in Ventnor, even as I write
    I can’t believe someone flagged this
  • Options
    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792

    DJ41 said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself
    The whole advanced west will go Argentina and worse. More like Caracas.

    What's remarkable is how all the geniuses sagely nod their heads about the failure of the Truss-Kwarteng mini-budget, but what was it, essentially, other than a nano version of what had been done since 2020 off the back of the new SARS variant? (Increase state spending - notably through the furlough schemes - without massively increasing taxes.) The dear old "markets" responded differently, as we know. How curious. The big question is why there wasn't a f***ing ginormous crash in 2020-22.

    Sentiment.

    One thing the Tories had going for them was that they were considered fiscally dry. Which means that they wouldn't be printing money to pay for stuff they really really wanted (Corbynomics). This would lead to inflation and the exchange rate sliding, creating an effective (partial) default for overseas investors.

    It's the thing about government borrowing that some have still not grasped. You can borrow cheaply, as long as you don't borrow too much. And people believe they will get their money back.
    Government borrowing:

    image
  • Options
    NEW THREAD
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,150
    edited January 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself

    (And, btw, both main parties are to blame for this, but the ideological impetus originates with the Left)
    I am in awe of the ideological power of the Left, who seem able to exert phenomenal power over the policy direction of this country, despite being out of power for well over a decade, while the government has become progressively more and more right wing. The biggest reason for the young to get the fuck out of Britain is Brexit, which has harmed their economic future and cut them off from opportunities in Europe and which most of them voted against - although IIRC you were all for it!
    Also, you are barely in the country so have effectively fucked off already, so I applaud your consistency.
    “progressively more and more right wing.”

    Lol. I wish

    Put me in total power and I would show you what an ACTUAL right wing party looks like. You would hate it, but you would also recognise it for what it is. Actually right wing, and then you’d stop bleating about the pitiful modern Tories. You’d probably pay attention first when I brought back the death penalty
    Fortunately no one with a modicum of sanity would allow you anywhere near power.
    The fact that you think this point is interesting, and worth making, is itself a source of desolating pessimism. Why expend even 4 kilocalories typing this. Bewildering
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Let the traitors go and take their farms and country manors with them if they can. And strip them of their citizenship if they don't want to pay UK taxes.
    You’re a fucking idiot. Britain is set on a catastrophic economic course, driving away the wealthy and smart, leaving an ever smaller tax base to pay for an ever larger welfare state, which is already in a prolonged state of collapse

    We risk becoming 70s New York City, or even a new Argentina

    Get the fuck out of Britain, is my advice to anyone under 40. And to myself

    (And, btw, both main parties are to blame for this, but the ideological impetus originates with the Left)
    Just as well, then, that your advice posted to this site has so often proved to be fallacious, if not ludicrous.

    The mess that this country faces is, to a significant degree, down to the prejudices of and mistakes made by people like you.
    It is high time you fucked your only friend. I sense a vulnerable dog, shuddering in Ventnor, even as I write
    I can’t believe someone flagged this
    Diddums.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,586
    DeSantis fields growing criticism from fellow 2024 Republicans
    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3809213-desantis-fields-growing-criticism-from-fellow-2024-republicans/

    Interesting snippet - which goes against my betting position, but worth airing.
    ...while DeSantis may be trouncing Trump in head-to-head polling, several surveys testing a broader field of Republican candidates show him running behind the former president.
    An Emerson College poll fielded in November showed Trump winning 55 percent support in a multiway primary that also included prospective candidates like former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas). DeSantis finished in second place with 25 percent in that poll.
    “I think there is a sense that DeSantis isn’t bulletproof and that there’s still room for other people,” said one Republican strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns. “The polling kind of reflects that, you know, sure, if it’s DeSantis and Trump, DeSantis looks really good. But with a bigger field, there’s no guarantees.”..
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,932

    HYUFD said:

    Jacob Rees Mogg sets out to Tom Harwood what Conservatives must do to win over voters under 45

    https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1613479438058131463?s=20&t=pwEQ1cNXg_M83EtleNHyrg

    I'm under 45, Jacob is talking nonsense.

    What we need is to stop giving old people and pensioners a triple lock, we need house prices to come down massively and we need to massively increase housing supply.

    Until then, they're done
    We need under 45's to get off their butts and work harder, get productivity up instead of spending all their waking hours whining about pensioners who get under £10K pension. All those pensioners worked their socks off to improve the country and latest generations are lazy idle barstewards letting it all go to rot whilst whining and whinging.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,060

    The biggest reason for the young to get the fuck out of Britain is Brexit, which has harmed their economic future and cut them off from opportunities in Europe and which most of them voted against - although IIRC you were all for it!

    So the reason for getting the fuck out of Britain is that it's now fractionally harder for some people in some circumstances to get the fuck out of Britain?
This discussion has been closed.