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BoJo’s resignation – “Right or Wrong”: GE2019 Tories think the latter – politicalbetting.com
BoJo’s resignation – “Right or Wrong”: GE2019 Tories think the latter – politicalbetting.com
Do Britons believe the Conservative Party made the right or wrong decision in asking Boris Johnson to resign? (4-5 Jan)Right 51% (+4)Wrong 35% (-2)Don't know 14% (-2)Changes +/- 21 Oct (when Truss was PM)55% of 2019 Conservative voters believe it was the wrong decision. pic.twitter.com/p8Cg8YD6la
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The latest Yougov has the Tories on 25% with RefUK on 7%.
So unless and until Rishi gets the Tory voteshare back over 30% and squeezes the RefUK total there will always be some wanting to bring Boris back
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
By getting rid of Meth etc and replacing them with safer drugs, at fixed, known concentrations, vast amounts of damage to people could be avoided.
This might be more important
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/gb-hypothetical-voting-intention-20-21-october-2022/
Boris means a slightly increased vote share (4%) but not even vaguely enough to turn things around.
I cannot see a successful challenge to Sunak, unless the challenger can present a narrative that they will, at least, pull things back to level with Labour. Simply swapping horses, again, for little or no apparent gain.....
That's even before the issue of Boris himself comes up.
People who want cocaine or MDMA, want cocaine or MDMA, not some random powder or pill that could be anything, and increasingly could be something really damn dangerous like fentanyl.
Alternatively, go down the Singapore/Bangkok/Dubai route, and build *lots* more prisons.
EDIT: though if you're in the business of throwing the dice then I still see more to fear for the opposition from Boris than Sunak. Boris is more unpredictable - he might also drag Labour down with him by bringing out their shoutiest most partisan instincts.
This chances of his being leader by the next election might better be quantified as more than Fabricant's, but less than Sunak's ?
The Big Dog won the Munster National and Troytown Chase last autumn, and is quoted between 20/1 and 33/1 for the big one.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/were-putting-all-our-eggs-in-one-basket-and-going-for-the-grand-national/595304
(Apart from all the three-legged nags I’ve inadvertently backed over the years. One should have learned by now, that a 40-horse handicapped steeplechase over more than four miles, is going to be a lottery!)
https://enterprise-sharing.ft.com/redeem/1bd58de9-e29c-4f99-ad84-a443eef4f3a5
NOT as powerful and dominant as it was a few years ago. But still a power for ill.
Oh, hold on a minute...
Ps numerically; the nuts in the GOP are counterbalanced by the nuts in the Dems who also want funding to Ukraine to stop - think Ilhan Omar et al
I think it would be more accurate to describe it as Trumpism. That absolute certainty that power was stolen and that only one messianic figure can put things right.
Do you have any children who could take over from you one day?
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/10/politics/biden-classified-documents-trump-garland/index.html
Has Prince Harry’s Confessional Tour Run Its Course?
Even in the United States, which has a high tolerance for redemptive stories about overcoming trauma and family dysfunction, the tide seems to be turning.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/books/prince-harry-book-royal-family.html
The polling truth, and by all means argue with me, a big drop under Truss, a bit of a limp recovery under Sunak honeymoon, which stalled, and Tories are now slipping backwards through the 20’s.
Why? What are the drivers to what happened and is happening in polling?
Truss did not drop at first is the truth. In fact her initial polls showed IMPROVEMENT on Boris last ones. The drop occurred after a politically unpopular budget on eve of Labour conference, a budget harshly treated by the media as an economically disastrous one. The problems Truss had, over borrowed over taxed for many giveaways, were not actually predicted by Sunak but CAUSED by Sunak in his profligate time as chancellor.
The Labour conference itself was very “meh”, nothing special to excite the voters.
Conclusion is the actual fall in Tory support under Truss was largely a contrivance in much the same Hunt and Sunak being an answer to the Truss problem is a contrivance too. The actual economic mess was 100% created by Boris and Sunak before Truss gained power. The actual problem isn’t Truss and her agenda, it was the problems Boris and Sunak left her with - and this will continue to be reflected in the polling for as long as PM Sunak remains there, as the architect of the mess dragging the Tories down.
No voting recovery under Sunak, the voters know he is to blame.
And as for Democratic nuts counter-balancing Rep nuts, note that the former have been stifled by the weight of PROGRESSIVE opinion against Russia's invasion and war crimes. For example, the whole Pramila Jayapal letter fiasco.
Wheres it is still socially acceptable for the likes of Matt Gaetz to snub and outright oppose President Zelensky and whole of UKR's amazing defense of their homeland, and with it the world.
Which is not good news for BoZo
Though it IS shocking, to find a senior Tory MP who believes that UK is part of Europe!
Surely this in grounds for removing the whip, and/or deselection by his local CUPers?
I'd forgotten he was Home Sec for the last 6 days of the Trussdammerung.
Around 1:30am, Times headline was about a failed European satellite launch. Which surprised EU citizens as there was no ESA launch yesterday.
It is true that so far Britain is still (for how long remains the question) member of the ESA. The Daily Express was gloating this as a success of Global Brexit UK. This morning, this quoted newspaper was obliged to acknowledged the unsuccessful mission. Quoting the original article with "A major win for post-Brexit Britain, putting it in the lead in the European space race".
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine?
Democrats
favor = 34%, oppose = 66%
Republicans
favor = 58%, oppose = 42%
Independents
favor = 47%, oppose = 52%
More of interest in this poll, here is link to report by pollster:
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/MLSPSC11PressRelease_NationalIssues.pdf
BUT we shall see.
- Amoral Scoundrels: rough diamonds, loved and loathed in equal measure, often forgiven ethical transgressions that more earnest politicians would be crucified for. GSOH, compelling speakers. Johnson, Berlusconi, Marcos, Mobutu
- Narcissistic Trolls: thrive on conflict, love to insult and bully opponents, but usually very thin skinned when things turn bad for them. Trump, Bolsonaro, Ahmedinejad
- Steely eyed mob bosses: Quieter, exude quiet menace, make use of henchmen to do much of their dirty work. Earn their initial popularity from the appearance of competence and stability. Eventually decline into a spiral of paranoia, purges and mistrust of everyone. Putin, Erdogan, Xi
- True ideologues: the rare examples who really do believe in their mad theories. Tend to struggle to get elected unless they deploy versions of the other 3 tactics. Often live surprisingly austere lives. Corbyn, Milosevic, Hitler
And, of course, had the UK listened to the anti-war voices at the time of the Iraq invasion, the global South might have been a bit more supportive of the Western position on Ukraine. As it is, many of them see the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the same light as the US/UK invasion of Iraq - powerful countries doing as they please and nothing to do with us.
UK genome project a ‘step change’ in tackling respiratory viruses
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jan/10/uk-genome-project-respiratory-viruses-sanger-institute
"The association of increased risk of COVID-19 with higher numbers of prior vaccine doses in our study, was unexpected. A simplistic explanation might be that those who received more doses were more likely to be individuals at higher risk of COVID-19. A small proportion of individuals may have fit this description. However, the majority of subjects in this study were generally young individuals and all were eligible to have received at least 3 doses of vaccine by the study start date, and which they had every opportunity to do. Therefore, those who received fewer than 3 doses (>45% of individuals in the study) were not those ineligible to receive the vaccine, but those who chose not to follow the CDC’s recommendations on remaining updated with COVID-19 vaccination, and one could reasonably expect these individuals to have been more likely to have exhibited higher risk-taking behavior. Despite this, their risk of acquiring COVID-19 was lower than those who received a larger number of prior vaccine doses. This is not the only study to find a possible association with more prior vaccine doses and higher risk of COVID-19. A large study found that those who had an Omicron variant infection after previously receiving three doses of vaccine had a higher risk of reinfection than those who had an Omicron variant infection after previously receiving two doses of vaccine [21]. Another study found that receipt of two or three doses of a mRNA vaccine following prior COVID-19 was associated with a higher risk of reinfection than receipt of a single dose [7]. We still have a lot to learn about protection from COVID-19 vaccination, and in addition to a vaccine’s effectiveness it is important to examine whether multiple vaccine doses given over time may not be having the beneficial effect that is generally assumed."
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full
BORIS PLOTTERS Boris Johnson allies set deadline to move against Rishi Sunak and install their man in No10
Noa Hoffman
Published: 16:26, 10 Jan 2023Updated: 16:34, 10 Jan 2023
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/21000032/boris-johnson-allies-set-deadline-to-oust-rishi/
On recommendation from my counsellor. I watched a Polish film last month, which was a bit of a hoot. Almost like a “the Cossacks are revolting” Carry On. For example at the start the hero rescues the arch enemy by mistake. He then recruits someone (who would be played by Bernard Breslaw in carry on version) who can hold a heavy German sword in one hand, and won’t have sex till he can take a hatrick of heads in one swoop, and keeps getting stuck on just 2 beheadings each fight.
In this film the poles bossed Ukraine, in so far as Ukraine actually existed as a nation state, and in so far as poles existed as united polish people. The battles was often one big double crossing tear up between poles, Cossacks, ruskies (called something I can’t remember), Turks, and Hetmen (whatever they are).
Although that was all hundreds of years ago, more recently in 1939, in Lyiv, poles made up 70% of the inhabitants, and used the war to kick the shit out of Ukraine minority. My thoughts are, and correct me where wrong, although this horrible 21st century war is clearly big bully Russia picking on Ukraine over its modern borders, it provokes all sorts of complicated history in the region - I would go as far as to say poles being nice to Ukraine nationalists could be because even greater hatred of Russian Nationalism - because a lot of this taking in refugees and sending weapons don’t match history, ancient and modern.
This one https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ogniem_i_mieczem
Second only to the other Harry. Potter that is.
- Boris is pro Putin
- What about the massive, overt support for Ukraine over a decade, military and economic?
- But Boris is Bad!
- I want him to be a Putinist!
- He must be a Putinist, because I want it!
https://grid.energynumbers.info/
- If we don’t stand together, history tells us we will be picked off by the Great Powers, one by one.
- Therefore we must ally with each other and gain support in Europe as well.
- Therefore we must bury the old quarrels and forget irredentism. We must defend the 1945 borders - of all of us.
The contrast with the brain fuck in Greater Russian Nationalism is remarkable.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
It's only 4 months to Coronation. Market needed on Haz/Meg to attend yes/no. He has made it very difficult.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-end-of-the-world-with-josh-clark/id1437682381
This also solves the Andrew problem, so I think it sounds quite probable.
Marjorie Taylor Greene has been locked out of her Twitter account and her new video has been removed after Dr. Dre took legal action against her for using his music without permission. ...
https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1612564851049615371
“One might expect that, as a member of Congress, you might have a passing familiarity with the laws of out country. It’s possible, though, that the laws governing intellectual property are a little too arcane and insufficiently populist for you really to have spent too much time on…”
In Our Time episode list, with something for just about everyone:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qykl/episodes/player
PBer may judge the timeliness (or not) of THIS episode, the latest listed:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001gjcm
The Great Stink
In Our Time
Melvyn Bragg and guests discuss the impact of the terrible stench of sewage in the Thames in central London in the hot summer of 1858 and the work of Joseph Bazalgette to fix it.
[think this is a repeat episode?]