Confirmation that Germany wants to go back to business as usual with Russia.
@olivernmoody New: Olaf Scholz has suggested that Europe should ultimately go back to the pre-war "peace order" with Russia if Putin renounces aggression against neighbouring states.
These appear to be his most explicit remarks on the subject to date.
Confirmation that Germany wants to go back to business as usual with Russia.
@olivernmoody New: Olaf Scholz has suggested that Europe should ultimately go back to the pre-war "peace order" with Russia if Putin renounces aggression against neighbouring states.
These appear to be his most explicit remarks on the subject to date.
Not really sure how such a thing is possible, given this other comment. But he did clearly condemn Russia's "imperialistic approach", saying Putin understood "neighbours as just hinterland, and some place they can give rules to be followed. And this can never be accepted."
Until occupied areas, including Crimea, are restored to Ukraine (and going that far may well be unlikely), then Putin and co are by action sitll treating its neighbour as hinterland. So even going back to Pre 2022 wouldn't satisfy that point.
Besides, if you even find yourself in a situation where you have to swear you won't invade another country again, clearly you cannot be trusted to keep to that. It could surely only be accepted if the invading state faced serious ongoing penalties and provided recompense for its actions, to demonstrate it would stick to its word.
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
Martin Bormann invented the currywurst? Truly despicable.
Rumour has it that British squaddies played their part by supplying tomato sauce and curry powder to the entrepreneurial inventor.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
Martin Bormann invented the currywurst? Truly despicable.
Rumour has it that British squaddies played their part by supplying tomato sauce and curry powder to the entrepreneurial inventor.
It was once said that every French soldier carried the baton of a marshal in their knapsack (I assume theoretically, others quite the waste). Every British soldier carrying tomato sauce and curry powder seems like a better deal.
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
In the best traditions of PB pedantry I feel I must point out Eichmann and Globo were pretty much Austrian.
TBF the Ostmark was very much part of the Grosser Deutsches Reich as far as they were concerned.
The ball definitely went out according to the pictures they just showed on ITV.
I dunno. They said the curvature is what counts. And I have seen some angles when the ball's curvature might make it in?
TV angles can be misleading - I think of pundits demonstrating a cricket ball might look like it is hitting the ground when it isn't - though I've never been entirely comfortable with the curvature argument, as in situations like this it just looks well out.
Benefit of the doubt, if it were a thing, should go to the officials, but if we're doing things by the camera precisely, this is what happens.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
I have to use the powers of THE MIGHTY LEONDAMUS with great caution, as I can literally alter space-time, but it seemed a judicious moment = to knock the Krauts out
While Labour will hold Chester comfortably there is a good chance the swing against the Tories will be below the UK polling average.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Yes, and I have some hopes that we will do better here than the opinion polls suggest. I would wager Rishi is more in tune with the good burghers of Chester than the nincompoop Starmer.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
And go for Braverman? Mordaunt? Who?
Definitely. Tories should go for it. A Braverman Mogg dream ticket. 🍿
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Coming v late to the Hussey story: if something like that had happened to me, I'd have written a letter to the organisers or through them setting out the conversation, stating that it displayed dreadful bad manners and tactlessness etc rather than rush to the press and say that you don't want someone publicly humiliated - when that is exactly what you've done.
There is a fine line between wanting to find out about family history and the myriad ways in which people have come from different parts of the world to Britain and celebrate that and implying that if your grandparents or great grandparents came from outside Britain you are somehow not British. Lady Susan was on the wrong side of that line.
As for charities, I am increasingly of the view that a very large percentage of them are scams which spend more on employing people and making people feel good about themselves than on doing anything useful for anyone else.
Osborne should have stuck to his guns over limiting the amount of tax relief donors to charities can claim. I'd have reduced the tax relief to zero. You should do charitable work because you want to help others not to get some tax advantage.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
That seems an unlikely combination of possibilities.
Bottom line is the Conservatives need to man up and prepare take their spanking.
If they're lucky, their exile will be five years.
If they're sensible, nine.
If they dick about with a culture war (yes Braverman and Badenoch, I am looking at you), thirteen.
Sometimes, the voters have just had enough of a party.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Boris was polling higher than Sunak is now when he resigned and far higher than Truss was.
Removing him may prove as fatal for the Tories as removing Blair was for Labour in 2007, 15 years later and Labour still have not won a general election and only now have consistent clear poll leads
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
She claimed a Royal was, yet to be proved, Hussey was an aide not a royal
Very principled for Germany to boycott the remaining games...
Lampards ‘goal’ was the direct cause of VAR. shocking decision, obviously wrong at the time. Genuinely could have made a difference to the game. 2-2 at half time, not 2-1 and all that followed.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
That seems an unlikely combination of possibilities.
Bottom line is the Conservatives need to man up and prepare take their spanking.
If they're lucky, their exile will be five years.
If they're sensible, nine.
If they dick about with a culture war (yes Braverman and Badenoch, I am looking at you), thirteen.
Sometimes, the voters have just had enough of a party.
Depends also on how bad the economy gets under a Labour government whatever the Tories do the worse Labour run the economy the better they will do in opposition
Looks like this palace race story might be gold for conspiracy theorists and culture war addicts. Doing some digging it turns out that:
Susan Hussey was handpicked by the Queen to help Meghan integrate into the Royal Family Ngozi Fulani has previously stated on twitter that the royals were racist towards Meghan She's also close to Sussex fans Mandu Reid (the co-witness) and 'Dr' Shola Mos-Shagbamimu The transcript if accurate surely required a tape recording? The timing clashes with William and Catherine's visit to Boston Harry and Meghan are about to get the RFK Human Rights Award
To be clear the transcript doesn't look good. Damning in fact. And touching someone's hair is completely inappropriate. But we only have one side of the story with the recollection of someone with known hostility to the royal family.
Coming v late to the Hussey story: if something like that had happened to me, I'd have written a letter to the organisers or through them setting out the conversation, stating that it displayed dreadful bad manners and tactlessness etc rather than rush to the press and say that you don't want someone publicly humiliated - when that is exactly what you've done.
There is a fine line between wanting to find out about family history and the myriad ways in which people have come from different parts of the world to Britain and celebrate that and implying that if your grandparents or great grandparents came from outside Britain you are somehow not British. Lady Susan was on the wrong side of that line.
As for charities, I am increasingly of the view that a very large percentage of them are scams which spend more on employing people and making people feel good about themselves than on doing anything useful for anyone else.
Osborne should have stuck to his guns over limiting the amount of tax relief donors to charities can claim. I'd have reduced the tax relief to zero. You should do charitable work because you want to help others not to get some tax advantage.
To me that reaching for her hair uninvited and moving it to read the name badge sounded pretty poor behaviour. Almost like you might do with someone you consider a child.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
The problem isn't Sunak or Hunt. It's that things are shitty, and the Tories don't look like they can change that. Given the MPs only went with Sunak and Hunt seemingly through lack of alternative options, given they'd surely have stuck with cutting taxes if they felt it was possible, changing leaders isn't going to change direction.
I wouldnae be happy if I was a German and I saw that
Awa tae fuck, if the baw didnae touch the ground it disnae matter whit the squareheids thocht.
I actually quite like the Germans. But really, if they wanted to qualify out of that group they needed to be doing rather better than scraping a win against Costa Rica. Complaining about dodgy decisions in the other match smacks of straw grasping.
While Labour will hold Chester comfortably there is a good chance the swing against the Tories will be below the UK polling average.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Yes, and I have some hopes that we will do better here than the opinion polls suggest. I would wager Rishi is more in tune with the good burghers of Chester than the nincompoop Starmer.
Of course, there a dozen North West seats where the current polling UNS of 17% is wholly impossible since it would put Labour above 100% and/or Conservative below 0%.
So, as seats get safer Labour, UNS gets more challenging to achieve.
Though, I think the range of usefulness of (English and Welsh) UNS has been fairly broad. I recall it said that the first 20 seats counted get to within a percent or so of the final result in terms of swing. Yet, I recall 1997 when Labour got 75 seats on the board before the Tories even registered a single seat, so those early results clearly weren't representative.
If the early UNS swing was representative in 1997, then strongly Labour seats fitted with UNS. I may be miscombining different nuggets of information, but I'm not sure I am.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
That seems an unlikely combination of possibilities.
Bottom line is the Conservatives need to man up and prepare take their spanking.
If they're lucky, their exile will be five years.
If they're sensible, nine.
If they dick about with a culture war (yes Braverman and Badenoch, I am looking at you), thirteen.
Sometimes, the voters have just had enough of a party.
Depends also on how bad the economy gets under a Labour government whatever the Tories do the worse Labour run the economy the better they will do in opposition
That's the lucky (for the Conservatives) bit. Though the US precedent seems to show that if an opposition goes too far in the culture wars, even a failing economy doesn't really save them.
The ball definitely went out according to the pictures they just showed on ITV.
I disagree. The entirety of the ball's circumference has to be over the entirety of the line to be out. So. The bit of the ball which touches the ground can be out, but the ball still in play. That ball wasn't out of play.
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
Coming v late to the Hussey story: if something like that had happened to me, I'd have written a letter to the organisers or through them setting out the conversation, stating that it displayed dreadful bad manners and tactlessness etc rather than rush to the press and say that you don't want someone publicly humiliated - when that is exactly what you've done.
There is a fine line between wanting to find out about family history and the myriad ways in which people have come from different parts of the world to Britain and celebrate that and implying that if your grandparents or great grandparents came from outside Britain you are somehow not British. Lady Susan was on the wrong side of that line.
As for charities, I am increasingly of the view that a very large percentage of them are scams which spend more on employing people and making people feel good about themselves than on doing anything useful for anyone else.
Osborne should have stuck to his guns over limiting the amount of tax relief donors to charities can claim. I'd have reduced the tax relief to zero. You should do charitable work because you want to help others not to get some tax advantage.
Agree with paras 1,2 and 3. The final point is better dealt with thus: have a proper and robust definition and oversight of charities, limit their number but continue to encourage giving to them in a tax efficient way Gift Aid allows. It is of immense value to genuine charities.
In particular 'starting a charity' - a new one - (especially to 'raise awareness') feels more like therapy for the founder and attention seeking that doing actual good. (Some are personal job creation schemes for the founder and their family). When there are already a million charities, starting a new one instead of joining an older one seems almost always the worst option.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
Yes. There are fights where you want both sides to lose, and there are people of colour who play the race card, when it's actually because they is them. Any of that need further exposition?
You are longing for me to be a racist because I pointed out your participation in the monkey grunting, hate filled nazi cesspit which is English football fandom. You pay big money to perpetuate this shit. I, conversely, am so colour blind that I would never in a million years have realised Meghan was anything other than a non blonde white person, if she didn't bang on about it.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Boris was polling higher than Sunak is now when he resigned and far higher than Truss was.
He was, but it's still misleading, since Sunak is having to deal with the aftermath of a party made mutinous by Boris's incompetence (as was Truss), and also Truss's demolition of the Tory rating and reputation. That is, Boris as was would not be doing well now.
That doesn't mean Sunak is doing well, he clearly isn't, but Boris made his party mutiny (that his polling could have been far worse actually makes the point it was all his own damn fault, rather than merely people thinking they were in danger of losing their seats) and his supporters have been in a strop ever since, quite happy to see the Tories lose as a result.
But fundamentally we know very well that Boris would not have been doing better now than Sunak, since if that would have been the case then Boris would have stood for the leadership - and would have won it. He chose not to for a good reason.
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
That's a tough path, yes. But it's doable. I think the odds on us are about right.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
She claimed a Royal was, yet to be proved, Hussey was an aide not a royal
Must be a dreadful shock for the Royals to discovered that they’d harboured such a person in their midst for 60 years.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Boris was polling higher than Sunak is now when he resigned and far higher than Truss was.
Removing him may prove as fatal for the Tories as removing Blair was for Labour in 2007, 15 years later and Labour still have not won a general election and only now have consistent clear poll leads
I'm not disputing that; I just don't think he governed effectively. His years were wasted. Particularly after he ditched Cummings and became more heavily influenced by Carrie.
Sunak/Hunt are a slow moving train crash. It's not that they don't have the answers to today's problems, it's that they don't want to solve today's problems.
The ball definitely went out according to the pictures they just showed on ITV.
I disagree. The entirety of the ball's circumference has to be over the entirety of the line to be out. So. The bit of the ball which touches the ground can be out, but the ball still in play. That ball wasn't out of play.
The ball definitely went out according to the pictures they just showed on ITV.
I disagree. The entirety of the ball's circumference has to be over the entirety of the line to be out. So. The bit of the ball which touches the ground can be out, but the ball still in play. That ball wasn't out of play.
That's been the rule for quite a long time. Authorities stopped relying on humans eyeballing whether it fully crossed the line some time ago, precisely because of situations like this one where it really looks like it did, but did not.
Coming v late to the Hussey story: if something like that had happened to me, I'd have written a letter to the organisers or through them setting out the conversation, stating that it displayed dreadful bad manners and tactlessness etc rather than rush to the press and say that you don't want someone publicly humiliated - when that is exactly what you've done.
There is a fine line between wanting to find out about family history and the myriad ways in which people have come from different parts of the world to Britain and celebrate that and implying that if your grandparents or great grandparents came from outside Britain you are somehow not British. Lady Susan was on the wrong side of that line.
As for charities, I am increasingly of the view that a very large percentage of them are scams which spend more on employing people and making people feel good about themselves than on doing anything useful for anyone else.
Osborne should have stuck to his guns over limiting the amount of tax relief donors to charities can claim. I'd have reduced the tax relief to zero. You should do charitable work because you want to help others not to get some tax advantage.
Agree with paras 1,2 and 3. The final point is better dealt with thus: have a proper and robust definition and oversight of charities, limit their number but continue to encourage giving to them in a tax efficient way Gift Aid allows. It is of immense value to genuine charities.
In particular 'starting a charity' - a new one - (especially to 'raise awareness') feels more like therapy for the founder and attention seeking that doing actual good. (Some are personal job creation schemes for the founder and their family). When there are already a million charities, starting a new one instead of joining an older one seems almost always the worst option.
Yup. Pure grant harvesting. And the charity is hilarious, it's there to prove that m persons of colour beating up f persons of colour, is evidence of whitey racism.
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
By putting Spain in our half of the draw, the chances of England or France winning will be reduced. Brazil and Argentina may well meet in a very tasty semi-final in the easier half of the draw.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
That's a tough path, yes. But it's doable. I think the odds on us are about right.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
Yes. There are fights where you want both sides to lose, and there are people of colour who play the race card, when it's actually because they is them. Any of that need further exposition?
You are longing for me to be a racist because I pointed out your participation in the monkey grunting, hate filled nazi cesspit which is English football fandom. You pay big money to perpetuate this shit. I, conversely, am so colour blind that I would never in a million years have realised Meghan was anything other than a non blonde white person, if she didn't bang on about it.
As I pointed out earlier, I have never heard racist abuse at a Leicester City game and I have been a season ticket holder for two decades.
Your ideas of football crowds seem more like experience of St Petersburg or Moscow.
Coming v late to the Hussey story: if something like that had happened to me, I'd have written a letter to the organisers or through them setting out the conversation, stating that it displayed dreadful bad manners and tactlessness etc rather than rush to the press and say that you don't want someone publicly humiliated - when that is exactly what you've done.
There is a fine line between wanting to find out about family history and the myriad ways in which people have come from different parts of the world to Britain and celebrate that and implying that if your grandparents or great grandparents came from outside Britain you are somehow not British. Lady Susan was on the wrong side of that line.
As for charities, I am increasingly of the view that a very large percentage of them are scams which spend more on employing people and making people feel good about themselves than on doing anything useful for anyone else.
Osborne should have stuck to his guns over limiting the amount of tax relief donors to charities can claim. I'd have reduced the tax relief to zero. You should do charitable work because you want to help others not to get some tax advantage.
Agree with paras 1,2 and 3. The final point is better dealt with thus: have a proper and robust definition and oversight of charities, limit their number but continue to encourage giving to them in a tax efficient way Gift Aid allows. It is of immense value to genuine charities.
In particular 'starting a charity' - a new one - (especially to 'raise awareness') feels more like therapy for the founder and attention seeking that doing actual good. (Some are personal job creation schemes for the founder and their family). When there are already a million charities, starting a new one instead of joining an older one seems almost always the worst option.
Yes, lacking a clear niche cause it does feel like a lot of charities are not needed. Of course, maybe one is going to do a better job spending donations than one that already exists, but it's not like rivals to Oxfam go around saying Oxfam is doing a shit job and so give to them instead, so instead they all have to differentiate, which some manage, but others not so much.
Government grants then spent lobbying for more grants is a common claim, but I don't know if that is genuinely an issue.
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
That's a tough path, yes. But it's doable. I think the odds on us are about right.
Portugal to come into Englands half of draw too.
England can beat Spain and Portugal. France and Senegal are trickier.
I wouldnae be happy if I was a German and I saw that
Awa tae fuck, if the baw didnae touch the ground it disnae matter whit the squareheids thocht.
I actually quite like the Germans. But really, if they wanted to qualify out of that group they needed to be doing rather better than scraping a win against Costa Rica. Complaining about dodgy decisions in the other match smacks of straw grasping.
The oddity to my eyes is how the cross bar, which on a fully side on shot should, I think, line up with the goal line, is actually a couple of degrees out.
Suggests the shot is taken from a short distance into the pitch, which would tend to make the ball seem more 'out'.
So, I would defer judgement on those visuals to the goal line technology.
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
That's a tough path, yes. But it's doable. I think the odds on us are about right.
Incredibly one team will win all their games after the group stages, no matter how improbable that seems. Happens in the FA Cup too - one side wins all their games…
Coming v late to the Hussey story: if something like that had happened to me, I'd have written a letter to the organisers or through them setting out the conversation, stating that it displayed dreadful bad manners and tactlessness etc rather than rush to the press and say that you don't want someone publicly humiliated - when that is exactly what you've done.
There is a fine line between wanting to find out about family history and the myriad ways in which people have come from different parts of the world to Britain and celebrate that and implying that if your grandparents or great grandparents came from outside Britain you are somehow not British. Lady Susan was on the wrong side of that line.
As for charities, I am increasingly of the view that a very large percentage of them are scams which spend more on employing people and making people feel good about themselves than on doing anything useful for anyone else.
Osborne should have stuck to his guns over limiting the amount of tax relief donors to charities can claim. I'd have reduced the tax relief to zero. You should do charitable work because you want to help others not to get some tax advantage.
Agree with paras 1,2 and 3. The final point is better dealt with thus: have a proper and robust definition and oversight of charities, limit their number but continue to encourage giving to them in a tax efficient way Gift Aid allows. It is of immense value to genuine charities.
In particular 'starting a charity' - a new one - (especially to 'raise awareness') feels more like therapy for the founder and attention seeking that doing actual good. (Some are personal job creation schemes for the founder and their family). When there are already a million charities, starting a new one instead of joining an older one seems almost always the worst option.
Years ago, Mrs Romford was asked the University Interview Question "A relative has bequeathed a million pounds to do good in the world. What would you advise?"
Part of the right answer was recognising that it wasn't very much money and the best thing would be to put it into something bigger.
I'm very glad she got it right enough, or she probably wouldn't be Mrs Romford.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
The problem isn't Sunak or Hunt. It's that things are shitty, and the Tories don't look like they can change that. Given the MPs only went with Sunak and Hunt seemingly through lack of alternative options, given they'd surely have stuck with cutting taxes if they felt it was possible, changing leaders isn't going to change direction.
I'm sorry; I don't think that's the case. There's no reason why we can't:
-Address the pull factors for illegal migrants. Even France has started to question why we're not doing this
-License more domestic oil and gas production NOW
-Work with the BOE to find an alternative to subsidising its qt programme with 11bn taxpayers' money
Three things that any Government worth shit would do on day 1. This Government isn't doing it because they're not governing to advance the interests of the UK; they're doing it to get slapped on the back at Davos.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
Yes. There are fights where you want both sides to lose, and there are people of colour who play the race card, when it's actually because they is them. Any of that need further exposition?
You are longing for me to be a racist because I pointed out your participation in the monkey grunting, hate filled nazi cesspit which is English football fandom. You pay big money to perpetuate this shit. I, conversely, am so colour blind that I would never in a million years have realised Meghan was anything other than a non blonde white person, if she didn't bang on about it.
As I pointed out earlier, I have never heard racist abuse at a Leicester City game and I have been a season ticket holder for two decades.
Your ideas of football crowds seem more like experience of St Petersburg or Moscow.
That would be the Moscow you went to for the world cup? You are like a middle class coke wanker denying any connection with Colombian cartel murders.
Overall, 51.7% of households in England and Wales in 2021 (12.8 million) were deprived in at least one of these dimensions (51.6% of households in England and 54.1% of households in Wales). The number of households deprived in at least one dimension has decreased since 2011, when it was 13.5 million (57.6%).
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
That's a tough path, yes. But it's doable. I think the odds on us are about right.
Incredibly one team will win all their games after the group stages, no matter how improbable that seems. Happens in the FA Cup too - one side wins all their games…
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
That's a tough path, yes. But it's doable. I think the odds on us are about right.
Incredibly one team will win all their games after the group stages, no matter how improbable that seems. Happens in the FA Cup too - one side wins all their games…
Clearly in imo. Pundits daft to comment before seeing the overhead or technology pictures.
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
By putting Spain in our half of the draw, the chances of England or France winning will be reduced. Brazil and Argentina may well meet in a very tasty semi-final in the easier half of the draw.
The noise will be like battle of the bands in that semi! Fans help make a World Cup, and the argies and Brazilian fan make great noise in the stadiums.
Glorious night of football. I don’t really have a huge animus against Germany; despite being an England fan (albeit not generally that arsed) I find the supposed rivalry a bit cringeworthy, given it is not reciprocated at all. A bit like how the Scots must feel, I guess.
England’s most interesting rivalry is with Argentina, predating the Falklands war and fairly evenly felt on both sides.
Personally though the one team I find particular irritating are Portugal, who seen to get a lot of luck and are full of unlikable players (CR7 obvs). No doubt they’ll ponce their way into the semis.
Most enjoyable tosh from Muller about the German exit:
Germany forward Thomas Muller says his country's exit from the World Cup at the group stage for the second tournament in a row on Thursday is an "absolute catastrophe".
The Germans beat Costa Rica 4-2 but Spain's 2-1 defeat to Japan that meant Germany finished third in Group E behind Spain, with the teams equal on four points and the positions decided only by goal difference.
"It is unbelievably bitter for us because our result would have been enough," Muller said.
"It's a feeling of powerlessness."
It's only a game, not a catastrophe. But, crucially, 'our result would have been enough' is a blithe assumption that they had a right to go through on the basis of other results despite starting this evening bottom of the group.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
And go for Braverman? Mordaunt? Who?
Penny will do.
That empty vessel has sailed, I think.
Sunk.
Probably more accurate, yes. Think she's had her moment.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
Yes. There are fights where you want both sides to lose, and there are people of colour who play the race card, when it's actually because they is them. Any of that need further exposition?
You are longing for me to be a racist because I pointed out your participation in the monkey grunting, hate filled nazi cesspit which is English football fandom. You pay big money to perpetuate this shit. I, conversely, am so colour blind that I would never in a million years have realised Meghan was anything other than a non blonde white person, if she didn't bang on about it.
As I pointed out earlier, I have never heard racist abuse at a Leicester City game and I have been a season ticket holder for two decades.
Your ideas of football crowds seem more like experience of St Petersburg or Moscow.
That would be the Moscow you went to for the world cup? You are like a middle class coke wanker denying any connection with Colombian cartel murders.
I didn't hear any racist abuse at the WC Semi-final in St Petersburg either. I watched the final in Moscow, but not at the game. The Russians were excellent hosts. It is the Russian club fans that do the racism. Leicester City got some monkey chants etc from Spartak Moscow fans away in the Europa League last year, but I wasn't at the match
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Would that be the ghastly Meghan who claims that some of the Palace courtiers were racist? 🤔
She claimed a Royal was, yet to be proved, Hussey was an aide not a royal
Must be a dreadful shock for the Royals to discovered that they’d harboured such a person in their midst for 60 years.
Don't be stupid, 60 years back, people who thought black people should be repatriated or exterminated, said so. There is ZERO evidence of this old bat being "such a person."
This is beautiful yet very sad. A Christmas video from Mariupol a year ago.
Today is the first day of winter and I want you to watch this video of Christmas #Mariupol as it was a year ago, when the city and its residents didn’t yet know what awaited them in 2 months. https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1598371689670316045
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
In the best traditions of PB pedantry I feel I must point out Eichmann and Globo were pretty much Austrian.
Pretty harsh on Beethoven, too. He didn’t even like football.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
Fair points, but as far as anyone can tell, we can't squash migration without totally borking the economy. Certainly on a two year timescale.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
25 to 30%, however if they got that much then Farage's party would likely have overtaken the Tories as the main opposition anyway
Tories need to ditch Sunak/Hunt. And try to dodge a Boris comeback.
Boris was polling higher than Sunak is now when he resigned and far higher than Truss was.
He was, but it's still misleading, since Sunak is having to deal with the aftermath of a party made mutinous by Boris's incompetence (as was Truss), and also Truss's demolition of the Tory rating and reputation. That is, Boris as was would not be doing well now.
That doesn't mean Sunak is doing well, he clearly isn't, but Boris made his party mutiny (that his polling could have been far worse actually makes the point it was all his own damn fault, rather than merely people thinking they were in danger of losing their seats) and his supporters have been in a strop ever since, quite happy to see the Tories lose as a result.
But fundamentally we know very well that Boris would not have been doing better now than Sunak, since if that would have been the case then Boris would have stood for the leadership - and would have won it. He chose not to for a good reason.
To be pedantic I don't think the Boris problem was one of incompetence.
But rather one of idiocy and in particular idiocy of an insecure and self-indulgent variety.
For example the Downing Street parties were idiocy not incompetence.
Comments
But he did clearly condemn Russia's "imperialistic approach", saying Putin understood "neighbours as just hinterland, and some place they can give rules to be followed. And this can never be accepted."
Until occupied areas, including Crimea, are restored to Ukraine (and going that far may well be unlikely), then Putin and co are by action sitll treating its neighbour as hinterland. So even going back to Pre 2022 wouldn't satisfy that point.
Besides, if you even find yourself in a situation where you have to swear you won't invade another country again, clearly you cannot be trusted to keep to that. It could surely only be accepted if the invading state faced serious ongoing penalties and provided recompense for its actions, to demonstrate it would stick to its word.
So.
I know this is a bad question, it depends on lumpy distribution, but what vote share gives RefUK a decent chance of a noticeable number of MPs?
Best WC ever at this rate.
Benefit of the doubt, if it were a thing, should go to the officials, but if we're doing things by the camera precisely, this is what happens.
I did that deliberately
I have to use the powers of THE MIGHTY LEONDAMUS with great caution, as I can literally alter space-time, but it seemed a judicious moment = to knock the Krauts out
I would wager Rishi is more in tune with the good burghers of Chester than the nincompoop Starmer.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/kanye-west-hitler-alex-jones-b2237179.html
Apparently we have to stop dissing the Nazis all the time...
Anyone know where the German TV coverage is? I did my GCSE over 30 years ago, but tonight's the night to see what has stuck.
There is a fine line between wanting to find out about family history and the myriad ways in which people have come from different parts of the world to Britain and celebrate that and implying that if your grandparents or great grandparents came from outside Britain you are somehow not British. Lady Susan was on the wrong side of that line.
As for charities, I am increasingly of the view that a very large percentage of them are scams which spend more on employing people and making people feel good about themselves than on doing anything useful for anyone else.
Osborne should have stuck to his guns over limiting the amount of tax relief donors to charities can claim. I'd have reduced the tax relief to zero. You should do charitable work because you want to help others not to get some tax advantage.
https://youtu.be/DD5rbyzBP2g
Very principled for Germany to boycott the remaining games...
Bottom line is the Conservatives need to man up and prepare take their spanking.
If they're lucky, their exile will be five years.
If they're sensible, nine.
If they dick about with a culture war (yes Braverman and Badenoch, I am looking at you), thirteen.
Sometimes, the voters have just had enough of a party.
Removing him may prove as fatal for the Tories as removing Blair was for Labour in 2007, 15 years later and Labour still have not won a general election and only now have consistent clear poll leads
Susan Hussey was handpicked by the Queen to help Meghan integrate into the Royal Family
Ngozi Fulani has previously stated on twitter that the royals were racist towards Meghan
She's also close to Sussex fans Mandu Reid (the co-witness) and 'Dr' Shola Mos-Shagbamimu
The transcript if accurate surely required a tape recording?
The timing clashes with William and Catherine's visit to Boston
Harry and Meghan are about to get the RFK Human Rights Award
To be clear the transcript doesn't look good. Damning in fact. And touching someone's hair is completely inappropriate. But we only have one side of the story with the recollection of someone with known hostility to the royal family.
https://twitter.com/messiecondo/status/1598165550261481472
But really, if they wanted to qualify out of that group they needed to be doing rather better than scraping a win against Costa Rica. Complaining about dodgy decisions in the other match smacks of straw grasping.
So, as seats get safer Labour, UNS gets more challenging to achieve.
Though, I think the range of usefulness of (English and Welsh) UNS has been fairly broad. I recall it said that the first 20 seats counted get to within a percent or so of the final result in terms of swing. Yet, I recall 1997 when Labour got 75 seats on the board before the Tories even registered a single seat, so those early results clearly weren't representative.
If the early UNS swing was representative in 1997, then strongly Labour seats fitted with UNS. I may be miscombining different nuggets of information, but I'm not sure I am.
https://twitter.com/NoContextBrits/status/1598421556170223616
So. The bit of the ball which touches the ground can be out, but the ball still in play. That ball wasn't out of play.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/maps
In another picture Spain now come to Englands half as likely semi final opponent.
England. Would have to come past Senegal, France, Spain, Brazil to lift it in all likelihood. Far too stiff for England, makes England a poor bet as winners, and impossible for France and Spain to meet in the final too.
Surely this must be unprecedented.
(Some of it has stuck.)
In particular 'starting a charity' - a new one - (especially to 'raise awareness') feels more like therapy for the founder and attention seeking that doing actual good. (Some are personal job creation schemes for the founder and their family). When there are already a million charities, starting a new one instead of joining an older one seems almost always the worst option.
You are longing for me to be a racist because I pointed out your participation in the monkey grunting, hate filled nazi cesspit which is English football fandom. You pay big money to perpetuate this shit. I, conversely, am so colour blind that I would never in a million years have realised Meghan was anything other than a non blonde white person, if she didn't bang on about it.
That doesn't mean Sunak is doing well, he clearly isn't, but Boris made his party mutiny (that his polling could have been far worse actually makes the point it was all his own damn fault, rather than merely people thinking they were in danger of losing their seats) and his supporters have been in a strop ever since, quite happy to see the Tories lose as a result.
But fundamentally we know very well that Boris would not have been doing better now than Sunak, since if that would have been the case then Boris would have stood for the leadership - and would have won it. He chose not to for a good reason.
Sunak/Hunt are a slow moving train crash. It's not that they don't have the answers to today's problems, it's that they don't want to solve today's problems.
1966 Finalists
1968
1970 Semi Finalists
1972 Winners
1974 Winners
1976 Finalists
1978
1980 Winners
1982 Finalists
1984
1986 Finalists
1988 Semi Finalists
1990 Winners
1992 Finalists
1994
1996 Winners
1998
2000
2002 Finalists
2004
2006 Semi Finalists
2008 Finalists
2010 Semi Finalists
2012 Semi Finalists
2014 Winners
2016 Semi Finalists
2018
2020
2022
Four successive tournaments without reaching a final when they had not gone more than two since 1966.
Your ideas of football crowds seem more like experience of St Petersburg or Moscow.
Government grants then spent lobbying for more grants is a common claim, but I don't know if that is genuinely an issue.
She would be much better-served waiting to become leader 'till after the next election though, as I'm sure she knows.
Suggests the shot is taken from a short distance into the pitch, which would tend to make the ball seem more 'out'.
So, I would defer judgement on those visuals to the goal line technology.
Part of the right answer was recognising that it wasn't very much money and the best thing would be to put it into something bigger.
I'm very glad she got it right enough, or she probably wouldn't be Mrs Romford.
-Address the pull factors for illegal migrants. Even France has started to question why we're not doing this
-License more domestic oil and gas production NOW
-Work with the BOE to find an alternative to subsidising its qt programme with 11bn taxpayers' money
Three things that any Government worth shit would do on day 1. This Government isn't doing it because they're not governing to advance the interests of the UK; they're doing it to get slapped on the back at Davos.
Overall, 51.7% of households in England and Wales in 2021 (12.8 million) were deprived in at least one of these dimensions (51.6% of households in England and 54.1% of households in Wales). The number of households deprived in at least one dimension has decreased since 2011, when it was 13.5 million (57.6%).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/householdcharacteristics/homeinternetandsocialmediausage/bulletins/householdandresidentcharacteristicsenglandandwales/census2021#:~:text=Overall, 51.7% of households in,was 13.5 million (57.6%).
Ok one team will lose two games.
England’s most interesting rivalry is with Argentina, predating the Falklands war and fairly evenly felt on both sides.
Personally though the one team I find particular irritating are Portugal, who seen to get a lot of luck and are full of unlikable players (CR7 obvs). No doubt they’ll ponce their way into the semis.
Germany forward Thomas Muller says his country's exit from the World Cup at the group stage for the second tournament in a row on Thursday is an "absolute catastrophe".
The Germans beat Costa Rica 4-2 but Spain's 2-1 defeat to Japan that meant Germany finished third in Group E behind Spain, with the teams equal on four points and the positions decided only by goal difference.
"It is unbelievably bitter for us because our result would have been enough," Muller said.
"It's a feeling of powerlessness."
It's only a game, not a catastrophe. But, crucially, 'our result would have been enough' is a blithe assumption that they had a right to go through on the basis of other results despite starting this evening bottom of the group.
Google tells me at least 11 children have been born there globally.
Today is the first day of winter and I want you to watch this video of Christmas #Mariupol as it was a year ago, when the city and its residents didn’t yet know what awaited them in 2 months.
https://twitter.com/IrynaVoichuk/status/1598371689670316045
He didn’t even like football.
But rather one of idiocy and in particular idiocy of an insecure and self-indulgent variety.
For example the Downing Street parties were idiocy not incompetence.