On topic, looking at the by-election, turnout in 2019 was nearly 72% so cut out by two thirds and keeping the vote shares as they were meant a Labour win by just over 2,000. Labour would have had just over 9,000 votes and the Conservatives just under 7,000.
That on a turnout of 24% - applying a straight 10% swing from Conservative to Labour and you get a majority of around 5,700 so that's where I'd be starting with my expectations management. If the turnout is down at say 18% to be convenient, the majority becomes 4,300.
Put £20 of @TSE's money on it and I reckon a 5,000 Labour majority on a 25% turnout.
While Labour will hold Chester comfortably there is a good chance the swing against the Tories will be below the UK polling average.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Any betting on the new SNP Westminster leader? Mind you, the only one I've seen say much recently has been Mhairi Black. Will the SNP opt for comparative youth? Having said that, she's now won her seat at three general elections.
Five or ten years ago, there were many conversations on here about how r'Internet would destroy rail travel, and hence there was no need for HS2. Or rail investment.
Then came Covid, and some doubled down on the fact that home working was now permanent, and there was no need for HS2 or rail investment.
Well, despite the strikes: "Rail hit 99% of pre-pandemic use on Friday November 18 for the first time, according to latest DfT figures. Tube reached 105% on Saturday November 12."
While Labour will hold Chester comfortably there is a good chance the swing against the Tories will be below the UK polling average.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Or middle class seats like Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
While Labour will hold Chester comfortably there is a good chance the swing against the Tories will be below the UK polling average.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Or middle class seats like Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton.
They swung against the Tories under Johnson but Johnson still won them in 2019 unlike Chester and had bigger Leave votes
Five or ten years ago, there were many conversations on here about how r'Internet would destroy rail travel, and hence there was no need for HS2. Or rail investment.
Then came Covid, and some doubled down on the fact that home working was now permanent, and there was no need for HS2 or rail investment.
Well, despite the strikes: "Rail hit 99% of pre-pandemic use on Friday November 18 for the first time, according to latest DfT figures. Tube reached 105% on Saturday November 12."
If memory serves, Saturday 12th was a particularly glorious afternoon with warm sunshine. It looks an outlier against other weekend days though to be fair all are well above the weekday tube passenger numbers which continue to sit between 70 and 80% of pre-pandemic figures.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Initial thoughts: my god. It’s phenomenal. It is going to put about 200 million people out of a job. And this is before lunch
It is also potentially a Google killer. It will do all your net searching for you
Google (Meta) fund a heck of a lot of AI research and development (as well as paying propagandists such as Ray Kurzweil), probably own the field, and won't be undermined in that way by a competitor. But otherwise, YES. There are still human skills that are used by individuals to type words in to searchboxes, and to decide what links to click on, and therefore these skills will be subjected to deskilling. The idea will be to use a direct interface with the brain, not just with consciousness, in order to know what "you" "want" before "you" "want" it. In the process the "you" will be enslaved (no need to type anything, and eventually no need to read anything either, or even to know how to read) - and in effect it will be abolished other than as a heap of matter, a long string of 0s and 1s, i.e. a number, but this is what the po-faced followers of the Science religion call progress and inevitable. Cf. Invasion of the Bodysnatchers.
As well as running DeepDream, Google are probably already researching actual dreams. They're certainly gathering info about sleep including about the patterns of bouts and therefore the patterns of dreaming (which contrary to popular belief doesn't only occur during REM sleep but bout pattern info still reveals a lot). The social relation that is technology is already pointing way beyond the stage where "nothing (is) your own except the few cubic centimetres inside your skull".
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
While Labour will hold Chester comfortably there is a good chance the swing against the Tories will be below the UK polling average.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Or middle class seats like Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton.
They swung against the Tories under Johnson but Johnson still won them in 2019 unlike Chester and had bigger Leave votes
That may well be fair.
The polling swing from GE19 to today is around about 17%, so I'd expect comfortably 10%+ still, but maybe not the full 17%, especially with foregone conclusion turnout.
In contrast, how much would Wakefield swing now.
Of course. Sunak still has plenty of post honeymoon time for his underlying ideologue to show through, so by GE 24 the calculation could be quite different.
Is it not possible to be British and republican and Marxist?
But British is probably the only one of those three that Ngozi Fulani actually is. Why would she go to a reception held by the queen at Buckingham Palace if she were anti-royalist?
While Labour will hold Chester comfortably there is a good chance the swing against the Tories will be below the UK polling average.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Or middle class seats like Chesham & Amersham, Shropshire North and Tiverton & Honiton.
They swung against the Tories under Johnson but Johnson still won them in 2019 unlike Chester and had bigger Leave votes
That may well be fair.
The polling swing from GE19 to today is around about 17%, so I'd expect comfortably 10%+ still, but maybe not the full 17%, especially with foregone conclusion turnout.
In contrast, how much would Wakefield swing now.
Of course. Sunak still has plenty of post honeymoon time for his underlying ideologue to show through, so by GE 24 the calculation could be quite different.
Indeed, any Tory seat held in 2019 would see a big swing against them now and especially redwall seats where Boris was most popular.
Chester however is in neither category but a Labour held middle class seat which voted for Cameron in 2010, so expect a below average Tory to Labour swing there and Sunak could spin that in his favour saying the polls are wrong, certainly the worst ones for him
Is it not possible to be British and republican and Marxist?
But British is probably the only one of those three that Ngozi Fulani actually is. Why would she go to a reception held by the queen at Buckingham Palace if she were anti-royalist?
Same reason Guy Fawkes entered the houses of parliament
Is it not possible to be British and republican and Marxist?
But British is probably the only one of those three that Ngozi Fulani actually is. Why would she go to a reception held by the queen at Buckingham Palace if she were anti-royalist?
To get patronage from the royals and therefore money from the type of knob that enjoys degrading themselves before the bulwark of embedded privilege.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
Is it not possible to be British and republican and Marxist?
But British is probably the only one of those three that Ngozi Fulani actually is. Why would she go to a reception held by the queen at Buckingham Palace if she were anti-royalist?
To get patronage from the royals and therefore money from the type of knob that enjoys degrading themselves before the bulwark of embedded privilege.
More likely, just work reasons. Some of us used to be in the armed forces, even if it was only the cadet force, and 'served' HMtQ there. Hell, even Tom Wintringham used to serve HM.
Five or ten years ago, there were many conversations on here about how r'Internet would destroy rail travel, and hence there was no need for HS2. Or rail investment.
Then came Covid, and some doubled down on the fact that home working was now permanent, and there was no need for HS2 or rail investment.
Well, despite the strikes: "Rail hit 99% of pre-pandemic use on Friday November 18 for the first time, according to latest DfT figures. Tube reached 105% on Saturday November 12."
If memory serves, Saturday 12th was a particularly glorious afternoon with warm sunshine. It looks an outlier against other weekend days though to be fair all are well above the weekday tube passenger numbers which continue to sit between 70 and 80% of pre-pandemic figures.
And recovering further, despite the strikes.
Rail usage patterns will undoubtedly have changed post-pandemic. But the recovery in usage is very heartening for anyone not wedded to cars.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
Leading the Tesco Bag for Life of Deplorables that is RefUK is too much work and not enough money for NF. He's knocking on a bit now and is aging fast in that way that truly committed piss artists do.
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
The Tories aren't going to win anyway, Farage leading Reform and getting 10%+ would just increase the loss further.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
The Palace’s action was purely PR but for understandable reasons.
I suspect that Hussey isn’t “racist” but was being gauche trying to make conversation. In this day & age what she said was poorly phrased and inappropriate (but basically boiled down to where did your parents come from) but hardly the level of the KKK as you might assume from the reporting
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
The script for this World Cup is being written by two teams, one team with fizzy water and biscuits, the other with copious amounts of coke and Jack Daniels. Fist fights keep breaking out between the two...
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
Surely it's only a matter of time before Farage becomes leader of the Reform Party. And then they'll probably be on 10-15% which is probably terminal for the Tories' chances at the next election.
A bit like people who voluntarily work for Trump even though he will make their lives miserable and then shit all over them, I don't get when anyone would 'lead' one of Farage's projects - it means doing a whole bunch of boring grindwork and then seeing Farage come in and take over later.
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
Sorry to hear you're still languishing.
On Formula E I'll defer to those with more knowledge, but that after all this time I don't think I've ever seen a result from it reported or made the news sufficiently to be noticed by my casual motor racing fan self, does not bode well.
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
Germany in front now. Possible truce in Japan/Spain? Spain get Morocco. Japan get Croatia. Germany go out. Not much incentive for Spain to equalise to play Croatia instead.
The script for this World Cup is being written by two teams, one team with fizzy water and biscuits, the other with copious amounts of coke and Jack Daniels. Fist fights keep breaking out between the two...
The hookers keep trying to break them up.
Its a brand name, so Coke should be capitalised . . . oh. 🤐
Germany now winning, this game is so topsy-turvy, but its in vain as it stands if Japan can hold on.
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
Sorry to hear you're still languishing.
On Formula E I'll defer to those with more knowledge, but that after all this time I don't think I've ever seen a result from it reported or made the news sufficiently to be noticed by my casual motor racing fan self, does not bode well.
I quite enjoy Formula E. Put it this way: I've watched more Formula E races than F1 races this year. It's got substantially better over the years. Then again, I quite like rallying and BTCC as well.
I think there will be increasing convergence between F1 and FE over the decades, and the differentiation *may* become that F1 is for longer 'classic' tracks and road circuits, whilst FE is for inner-city short circuits. There may be room for both.
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
OKC, good hearing from you, even if your still in durance quasi-vile. Hope you are improving, and also NOT irritating Nurse Ratched toooo much, for your own good.
Hang in there, and as you Brits say (today?) keep you pecker up (but why???)
In this sadly-decayed day & age, probably best to keep your pecker to yourself . . . at least while still Ipswich-ing!
Really worrying news about Christmas strikes in NHS. I learnt there are minimum staffing levels for a strike (which makes sense) - but apparently in current times we are actually below those safe levels to start with.
Mad to see how things have deteriorated over past decade.
That the Palace took action rather shows his take is over generous to Hussey.
No it doesn't. The palace is Chas n Baldy, and they are thick billionaires on the run from ghastly Meghan. Cock things up, overreact, shout at some understandings, job done.
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
Good evening, OKC
Keep yer pecker up
Wishing you a speedy recovery OKC. Hospitals are terrible for keeping people in. Personally I'd bolt the minute that the Matron is distracted. Not medical advice.
Really worrying news about Christmas strikes in NHS. I learnt there are minimum staffing levels for a strike (which makes sense) - but apparently in current times we are actually below those safe levels to start with.
Mad to see how things have deteriorated over past decade.
So. By going on strike they'll increase staff levels? It all makes sense now.
Evening ladies, gentlemen, and those of their own persuasion. Just to say I am still about, although languishing in a rehabilitation unit which is taking more time over rehabilitating me and my family, or I, would wish. I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
OKC, good hearing from you, even if your still in durance quasi-vile. Hope you are improving, and also NOT irritating Nurse Ratched toooo much, for your own good.
Hang in there, and as you Brits say (today?) keep you pecker up (but why???)
In this sadly-decayed day & age, probably best to keep your pecker to yourself . . . at least while still Ipswich-ing!
Really worrying news about Christmas strikes in NHS. I learnt there are minimum staffing levels for a strike (which makes sense) - but apparently in current times we are actually below those safe levels to start with.
Mad to see how things have deteriorated over past decade.
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
Martin Bormann invented the currywurst? Truly despicable.
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
In the best traditions of PB pedantry I feel I must point out Eichmann and Globo were pretty much Austrian.
Confirmation that Germany wants to go back to business as usual with Russia.
@olivernmoody New: Olaf Scholz has suggested that Europe should ultimately go back to the pre-war "peace order" with Russia if Putin renounces aggression against neighbouring states.
These appear to be his most explicit remarks on the subject to date.
Comments
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25s
Official
'My view is that Fulani planned this right from the very start. She’s an anti-Royal, anti-British Marxist!’
@Nigel_Farage
criticises charity boss Ngozi Fulani after she accused the late Queen's lady in waiting Lady Susan Hussey of racism.'
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1598400187130470400?s=20&t=aP53Vbtrs2jVPRkURTzgyg
On topic, looking at the by-election, turnout in 2019 was nearly 72% so cut out by two thirds and keeping the vote shares as they were meant a Labour win by just over 2,000. Labour would have had just over 9,000 votes and the Conservatives just under 7,000.
That on a turnout of 24% - applying a straight 10% swing from Conservative to Labour and you get a majority of around 5,700 so that's where I'd be starting with my expectations management. If the turnout is down at say 18% to be convenient, the majority becomes 4,300.
Put £20 of @TSE's money on it and I reckon a 5,000 Labour majority on a 25% turnout.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Farage is an arse. Would be interesting if he has any evidence though, I think the woman is just preternaturally thick.
Didn't they take it in 1992 as well?
Then came Covid, and some doubled down on the fact that home working was now permanent, and there was no need for HS2 or rail investment.
Well, despite the strikes:
"Rail hit 99% of pre-pandemic use on Friday November 18 for the first time, according to latest DfT figures. Tube reached 105% on Saturday November 12."
https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1598336422225870850
As well as running DeepDream, Google are probably already researching actual dreams. They're certainly gathering info about sleep including about the patterns of bouts and therefore the patterns of dreaming (which contrary to popular belief doesn't only occur during REM sleep but bout pattern info still reveals a lot). The social relation that is technology is already pointing way beyond the stage where "nothing (is) your own except the few cubic centimetres inside your skull".
The polling swing from GE19 to today is around about 17%, so I'd expect comfortably 10%+ still, but maybe not the full 17%, especially with foregone conclusion turnout.
In contrast, how much would Wakefield swing now.
Of course. Sunak still has plenty of post honeymoon time for his underlying ideologue to show through, so by GE 24 the calculation could be quite different.
That's Leon standard.
Japan lead!
But British is probably the only one of those three that Ngozi Fulani actually is. Why would she go to a reception held by the queen at Buckingham Palace if she were anti-royalist?
Chester however is in neither category but a Labour held middle class seat which voted for Cameron in 2010, so expect a below average Tory to Labour swing there and Sunak could spin that in his favour saying the polls are wrong, certainly the worst ones for him
What's the German for schadenfreude again?
Rail usage patterns will undoubtedly have changed post-pandemic. But the recovery in usage is very heartening for anyone not wedded to cars.
Spain going out with this situation.
MMX52x26.2XIII40x32
VAR check though.
EDIT: Goal stands!
Why do they fight over the ball in the net when they can use lots of other balls? It isn't the only one available.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
I suspect that Hussey isn’t “racist” but was being gauche trying to make conversation. In this day & age what she said was poorly phrased and inappropriate (but basically boiled down to where did your parents come from) but hardly the level of the KKK as you might assume from the reporting
I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
The hookers keep trying to break them up.
On Formula E I'll defer to those with more knowledge, but that after all this time I don't think I've ever seen a result from it reported or made the news sufficiently to be noticed by my casual motor racing fan self, does not bode well.
Keep yer pecker up
Possible truce in Japan/Spain?
Spain get Morocco. Japan get Croatia.
Germany go out.
Not much incentive for Spain to equalise to play Croatia instead.
Germany now winning, this game is so topsy-turvy, but its in vain as it stands if Japan can hold on.
I think there will be increasing convergence between F1 and FE over the decades, and the differentiation *may* become that F1 is for longer 'classic' tracks and road circuits, whilst FE is for inner-city short circuits. There may be room for both.
Hang in there, and as you Brits say (today?) keep you pecker up (but why???)
In this sadly-decayed day & age, probably best to keep your pecker to yourself . . . at least while still Ipswich-ing!
Mad to see how things have deteriorated over past decade.
It all makes sense now.
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
Bonus kudos for ante post.
NIPPON!
But I'll be sure not to ask them where they are really from.
Be careful not to be mistaken for an um lout whilst you are out there.
In the best traditions of PB pedantry I feel I must point out Eichmann and Globo were pretty much Austrian.
@olivernmoody
New: Olaf Scholz has suggested that Europe should ultimately go back to the pre-war "peace order" with Russia if Putin renounces aggression against neighbouring states.
These appear to be his most explicit remarks on the subject to date.
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598279892113985536
Sie gehen nach Hause
Der Fußball geht nach Hause
But that Japan goal looks awfully rum.
Can baseball do this? Nope