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Chester will be Rishi’s first by-election test – politicalbetting.com
Chester will be Rishi’s first by-election test – politicalbetting.com
Above is a table from David Cowling showing the detailed results of the Chester constituency since the 1992 general election.
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'My view is that Fulani planned this right from the very start. She’s an anti-Royal, anti-British Marxist!’
@Nigel_Farage
criticises charity boss Ngozi Fulani after she accused the late Queen's lady in waiting Lady Susan Hussey of racism.'
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1598400187130470400?s=20&t=aP53Vbtrs2jVPRkURTzgyg
On topic, looking at the by-election, turnout in 2019 was nearly 72% so cut out by two thirds and keeping the vote shares as they were meant a Labour win by just over 2,000. Labour would have had just over 9,000 votes and the Conservatives just under 7,000.
That on a turnout of 24% - applying a straight 10% swing from Conservative to Labour and you get a majority of around 5,700 so that's where I'd be starting with my expectations management. If the turnout is down at say 18% to be convenient, the majority becomes 4,300.
Put £20 of @TSE's money on it and I reckon a 5,000 Labour majority on a 25% turnout.
If any seat is likely to prefer Sunak to Johnson, other than ones with big Hindu populations, Chester is one of them. It was Conservative under Cameron in 2010 but Labour under Johnson in 2019, it has an above average graduate population and was less Leave than the UK average.
Indeed in 2019 the Tories actually saw their vote fall by 2% in Chester relative to May under Boris. The big swing against the Tories since 2019 and post Boris has been in the redwall seats to Labour, not in middle class seats like Chester
Farage is an arse. Would be interesting if he has any evidence though, I think the woman is just preternaturally thick.
Didn't they take it in 1992 as well?
Then came Covid, and some doubled down on the fact that home working was now permanent, and there was no need for HS2 or rail investment.
Well, despite the strikes:
"Rail hit 99% of pre-pandemic use on Friday November 18 for the first time, according to latest DfT figures. Tube reached 105% on Saturday November 12."
https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/1598336422225870850
As well as running DeepDream, Google are probably already researching actual dreams. They're certainly gathering info about sleep including about the patterns of bouts and therefore the patterns of dreaming (which contrary to popular belief doesn't only occur during REM sleep but bout pattern info still reveals a lot). The social relation that is technology is already pointing way beyond the stage where "nothing (is) your own except the few cubic centimetres inside your skull".
The polling swing from GE19 to today is around about 17%, so I'd expect comfortably 10%+ still, but maybe not the full 17%, especially with foregone conclusion turnout.
In contrast, how much would Wakefield swing now.
Of course. Sunak still has plenty of post honeymoon time for his underlying ideologue to show through, so by GE 24 the calculation could be quite different.
That's Leon standard.
Japan lead!
But British is probably the only one of those three that Ngozi Fulani actually is. Why would she go to a reception held by the queen at Buckingham Palace if she were anti-royalist?
Chester however is in neither category but a Labour held middle class seat which voted for Cameron in 2010, so expect a below average Tory to Labour swing there and Sunak could spin that in his favour saying the polls are wrong, certainly the worst ones for him
What's the German for schadenfreude again?
Rail usage patterns will undoubtedly have changed post-pandemic. But the recovery in usage is very heartening for anyone not wedded to cars.
Spain going out with this situation.
MMX52x26.2XIII40x32
VAR check though.
EDIT: Goal stands!
Why do they fight over the ball in the net when they can use lots of other balls? It isn't the only one available.
Sunak and Hunt would take the blame for a bad defeat and the Conservatives would then swing further right under Badenoch or Braverman or even Mogg in opposition to win back voters lost to Reform.
However provided Sunak can get a grip on migration levels and Hunt can cut taxes by the next election I think they can keep leaks to RefUK down Farage or no Farage and an outside chance of a hung parliament
I suspect that Hussey isn’t “racist” but was being gauche trying to make conversation. In this day & age what she said was poorly phrased and inappropriate (but basically boiled down to where did your parents come from) but hardly the level of the KKK as you might assume from the reporting
I should be woken up for some form of check around the time of the Chester result.
In the meantime, does anyone in the gambling community see a future for formula? E races?
The hookers keep trying to break them up.
On Formula E I'll defer to those with more knowledge, but that after all this time I don't think I've ever seen a result from it reported or made the news sufficiently to be noticed by my casual motor racing fan self, does not bode well.
Keep yer pecker up
Possible truce in Japan/Spain?
Spain get Morocco. Japan get Croatia.
Germany go out.
Not much incentive for Spain to equalise to play Croatia instead.
Germany now winning, this game is so topsy-turvy, but its in vain as it stands if Japan can hold on.
I think there will be increasing convergence between F1 and FE over the decades, and the differentiation *may* become that F1 is for longer 'classic' tracks and road circuits, whilst FE is for inner-city short circuits. There may be room for both.
Hang in there, and as you Brits say (today?) keep you pecker up (but why???)
In this sadly-decayed day & age, probably best to keep your pecker to yourself . . . at least while still Ipswich-ing!
Mad to see how things have deteriorated over past decade.
It all makes sense now.
Josef Mengel, Ludwig Beethoven, the Demon of Auschwitz, Klaus Barbie, Heinrich Himmler, Hermann Goring, Adolf Eichmann, Otto Globocnik, Martin Bormann, the inventor of the currywurst, your boys took a hell of a beating
Bonus kudos for ante post.
NIPPON!
But I'll be sure not to ask them where they are really from.
Be careful not to be mistaken for an um lout whilst you are out there.
In the best traditions of PB pedantry I feel I must point out Eichmann and Globo were pretty much Austrian.
@olivernmoody
New: Olaf Scholz has suggested that Europe should ultimately go back to the pre-war "peace order" with Russia if Putin renounces aggression against neighbouring states.
These appear to be his most explicit remarks on the subject to date.
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598279892113985536
Sie gehen nach Hause
Der Fußball geht nach Hause
But that Japan goal looks awfully rum.
Can baseball do this? Nope