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The money goes on DeSantis to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,221
edited November 2022 in General
imageThe money goes on DeSantis to win WH2024 – politicalbetting.com

Donald Trump is due to make a big announcement next week and it is widely thought that he will use this to state that he will be standing for the presidency in 2024.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Wasn't Trump already supposed to have triumphantly declared by now?

    Still think DeSantis should spike Trump's planned announcement. You snooze, you lose. It would also drive Trump totally crazy, considering he already regards DeSantis as disloyal for not ruling out standing (even though Trump hasn't officially confirmed he's standing).
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    edited November 2022
    'I want to tell you that Ron De Santis/sanctimonious will make a great president.'

    An increasingly republican Florida ought to make democrats think hard about how they see the political divide in the US. This is not WASP country.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    edited November 2022
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,650
    🐎 A BETTING POST

    Last time I went to Cheltenham I was rubbish. But it’s okay because I am not there today! I’ll be home with my signature homemade spicy chicken pizza and I have some double cream, Sobieski and Kahlua - so it’s a nice day for a White Russian.

    1:45 Cheltenham
    There some very good horses here, but still classed as novice at National Hunt chasing. I’m looking at PENTLAND HILLS, athletic horse who was fast and jumped so well at hurdling and should like the distance and good ground.

    2:20 Cheltenham
    Career high in weights, hasn’t run yet since March, but STOLEN SILVER is still my each way bet in specialising in 2m4f and liking good ground and Cheltenham.

    2:55 Cheltenham
    A long handicap hurdle, so I’m thinking of looking first at history for placings in long hurdle races, and then an eye on the weights. SIDI ISMAEL has this profile, a rest, a run out, and better weighted than Shearer. My long shot of the week.

    3:30 Cheltenham
    And this is a proper lottery 2m5f handicap hurdle with a lot of young unexposed horses coming in from the blind side. Shouldn’t even bet in this race really. But for the kudos analysing this to a winner. Elle Perfecta is one to continue watching for consistency I think so prefer the experience of the battling GETALEAD as each way bet.

    Have a great day. Enjoy the heatwave (though it is set to last now till heat death of the universe).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,739
    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,328
    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,432
    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,954
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    You and I both know that Trump is a loser, but is RDS willing to say so?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,432
    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    You and I both know that Trump is a loser, but is RDS willing to say so?
    He doesn't need to personally.

    He just needs everyone else to say it.

    Trump is unusual in being his own rabid attack dog. Most politicians down the years have successfully had others do it for them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    Yes, there is a slight (betting) parallel with BJ here imo.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    If Trump is no longer a winner could he now be a benefit to the democrats? I don't imagine he's the type to surrender the limelight willingly to other republicans.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653
    FrankBooth said:

    'I want to tell you that Ron De Santis/sanctimonious will make a great president.'

    An increasingly republican Florida ought to make democrats think hard about how they see the political divide in the US. This is not WASP country.

    They've just had the best midterms for an incumbent party since 2002, in the face of ugly economic fundamentals for which they are partly responsible. I suspect they are in no mood to be lectured about why they should become Trump Lite.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,954
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    You and I both know that Trump is a loser, but is RDS willing to say so?
    He doesn't need to personally.

    He just needs everyone else to say it.

    Trump is unusual in being his own rabid attack dog. Most politicians down the years have successfully had others do it for them.
    Has Lindsey Graham flopped on this again?

    It's not just that RDS won't say it. There aren't many Republicans who will. Which Republicans are ready to have an argument with their base over whether the Democrats stole the 2020 Presidential election? How popular are they now?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,739
    I wonder if DeSantis is too short for President, to be honest.

    Doesn't mean to say he won't grab the nom and the general, but two years out I'm not sure there's much value in it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,988
    What happened to cyclefree? Chased away by Leavers or Tories or both?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    @turbotubbs FPT

    I didn’t see @Cyclefree ’s departure. But after a conversation related to @IshmaelZ ’s tendency to aggressively and unpleasantly bully individuals she sent me a PM saying that she was being targeted by some people on the board so was going to take a break and focus on more pleasant things in life
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,739
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    Don't know, but Trump seemed "impossible" last time in 2016, and he did it.

    There will be plenty of Republican activists and primary voters who put the poor midterm performance down to the candidates rather than Trump himself, or argue they'd have won had he still been President.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    Roger said:

    What happened to cyclefree? Chased away by Leavers or Tories or both?

    By nasty people. They come in all sorts and brands.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,954
    Casino_Royale said:

    I wonder if DeSantis is too short for President, to be honest.

    Doesn't mean to say he won't grab the nom and the general, but two years out I'm not sure there's much value in it.

    I think that's right. If it becomes clear that Trump isn't going to be the nominee then there's loads of time for lots of candidates to join a wide field and start tearing lumps out of the frontrunner.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,739
    FPT @turbotubbs she got fed up of the personal abuse and invective on here so she's taking a break.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,988
    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208

    An interesting question is how much of Trump's base is devoted to him and only him. He certainly thinks he owns them and it will be the case for many. It might be impossible for the likes of me to relate to but there's no question he casts a spell.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,432
    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    You and I both know that Trump is a loser, but is RDS willing to say so?
    He doesn't need to personally.

    He just needs everyone else to say it.

    Trump is unusual in being his own rabid attack dog. Most politicians down the years have successfully had others do it for them.
    Has Lindsey Graham flopped on this again?

    It's not just that RDS won't say it. There aren't many Republicans who will. Which Republicans are ready to have an argument with their base over whether the Democrats stole the 2020 Presidential election? How popular are they now?
    The American conservative Murdoch press has been ruthlessly gunning for Trump post midterms.

    More and more Conservative voices saying that Trump is a drag on the GOP for tackling the Democrats while RDS is a winner.

    The contrast between Trumpists struggling and RDS triumphing couldn't be greater for building a move on from Trump narrative.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Damn shame if @Cyclefree has gone. And not a good sign for the site. We have a PB woman problem. We are the Republican Party of online political forums
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,988
    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    What happened to cyclefree? Chased away by Leavers or Tories or both?

    By nasty people. They come in all sorts and brands.
    I was trying to narrow it down. She added a lot
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,954
    edited November 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    You and I both know that Trump is a loser, but is RDS willing to say so?
    He doesn't need to personally.

    He just needs everyone else to say it.

    Trump is unusual in being his own rabid attack dog. Most politicians down the years have successfully had others do it for them.
    Has Lindsey Graham flopped on this again?

    It's not just that RDS won't say it. There aren't many Republicans who will. Which Republicans are ready to have an argument with their base over whether the Democrats stole the 2020 Presidential election? How popular are they now?
    The American conservative Murdoch press has been ruthlessly gunning for Trump post midterms.

    More and more Conservative voices saying that Trump is a drag on the GOP for tackling the Democrats while RDS is a winner.

    The contrast between Trumpists struggling and RDS triumphing couldn't be greater for building a move on from Trump narrative.
    All through 2015 it was similar. Lots of people attacked Trump - but it didn't shake the hold he has on his fans. He doesn't have twitter this time (yet) to disintermediate the media, but if anyone can sail through a shellacking from the media it is Trump.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Roger said:

    What happened to cyclefree? Chased away by Leavers or Tories or both?

    Ishmael Z
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    They do (or did) to many complaints for Labour supporters on here
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,739
    David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and Cyclefree all need to come back, IMHO. Great op-eds and below the line.

    I'd even have Rod Crosby (because he made us all a lot of money) and simply mod/delete any of his holocaust posts.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,477
    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    You and I both know that Trump is a loser, but is RDS willing to say so?
    He doesn't need to personally.

    He just needs everyone else to say it.

    Trump is unusual in being his own rabid attack dog. Most politicians down the years have successfully had others do it for them.
    Has Lindsey Graham flopped on this again?

    It's not just that RDS won't say it. There aren't many Republicans who will. Which Republicans are ready to have an argument with their base over whether the Democrats stole the 2020 Presidential election? How popular are they now?
    Has anyone asked RdS the 2020 steal question?

    More importantly, has RdS answered it?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,432
    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    LostPassword said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    It is yes. The Big Short is still underwater but it's shooting towards the surface and should soon leap into view like a shiny performing seal.
    I'm waiting to hear what Trump says on Tuesday.

    I think the market will overreact to any news he might run, just like Boris, and he still has a loud and noisy base.
    How much of the base is for him personally though?

    And how much is for "owning the libtards" and would be fervent De Santis supporters if he looks like beating the Democrats rather than a "LOSER" like Trump?
    You and I both know that Trump is a loser, but is RDS willing to say so?
    He doesn't need to personally.

    He just needs everyone else to say it.

    Trump is unusual in being his own rabid attack dog. Most politicians down the years have successfully had others do it for them.
    Has Lindsey Graham flopped on this again?

    It's not just that RDS won't say it. There aren't many Republicans who will. Which Republicans are ready to have an argument with their base over whether the Democrats stole the 2020 Presidential election? How popular are they now?
    The American conservative Murdoch press has been ruthlessly gunning for Trump post midterms.

    More and more Conservative voices saying that Trump is a drag on the GOP for tackling the Democrats while RDS is a winner.

    The contrast between Trumpists struggling and RDS triumphing couldn't be greater for building a move on from Trump narrative.
    All through 2015 it was similar. Lots of people attacked Trump - but it didn't shake the hold he has on his fans. He doesn't have twitter this time (yet) to disintermediate the media, but if anyone can sail through a shellacking from the media it is Trump.
    In 2015 Trump had an aura of being successful. A billionaire success who would shake up failed politicians.

    In 2022 Trump looks increasingly like the tarnished failure that he is. While RDS is undeniably successful.

    For the last few years if you wanted to "pwn the libs" you had to back Trump. Now there's an alternative to do so.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,954
    Leon said:

    Damn shame if @Cyclefree has gone. And not a good sign for the site. We have a PB woman problem. We are the Republican Party of online political forums

    I find myself in the uncomfortable position of being in the group of people not hounded off pb.com, rather than the group of people who have been hounded off - which might soon be seen as the more illustrious group - and it also raises the question, "Am I one of the baddies?"
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Casino_Royale said:

    David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and Cyclefree all need to come back, IMHO. Great op-eds and below the line.

    I'd even have Rod Crosby (because he made us all a lot of money) and simply mod/delete any of his holocaust posts.

    Orrrr, we don't have a holocaust denier.

    We could do that instead.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    LostPassword said:

    Leon said:

    Damn shame if @Cyclefree has gone. And not a good sign for the site. We have a PB woman problem. We are the Republican Party of online political forums

    I find myself in the uncomfortable position of being in the group of people not hounded off pb.com, rather than the group of people who have been hounded off - which might soon be seen as the more illustrious group - and it also raises the question, "Am I one of the baddies?"
    Time to check if there any skulls on your clothing.....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    LostPassword said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I wonder if DeSantis is too short for President, to be honest.

    Doesn't mean to say he won't grab the nom and the general, but two years out I'm not sure there's much value in it.

    I think that's right. If it becomes clear that Trump isn't going to be the nominee then there's loads of time for lots of candidates to join a wide field and start tearing lumps out of the frontrunner.
    The view embedded in the market is (i) he gets the nomination if Trump doesn't and (ii) he'll then win the WH easily. I agree with (i) more than (ii) but no way does it map to a 3.4 price imo. So, yep, RDS is too short.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    Leon said:

    Damn shame if @Cyclefree has gone. And not a good sign for the site. We have a PB woman problem. We are the Republican Party of online political forums

    I have a feminine side which I could amplify?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    It's standard practice for the beeb to mention titles isn't it? All in all I'd probably agree with it. Why not for Starmer? Has he asked to be known as the ordinary/common/Mr instead?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,995
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Damn shame if @Cyclefree has gone. And not a good sign for the site. We have a PB woman problem. We are the Republican Party of online political forums

    I have a feminine side which I could amplify?
    Big girl's blouse doesn't count.....
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Casino_Royale said:

    David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and Cyclefree all need to come back, IMHO. Great op-eds and below the line.

    I'd even have Rod Crosby (because he made us all a lot of money) and simply mod/delete any of his holocaust posts.

    I would welcome them all back with some reservations about Rod. I never agreed that much with David and Alastair's free market ideas but pb should be a broad church. Roger does his best on his own but he and Alastair represent a significant and influential social perspective which we ought to see.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,739
    Alistair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and Cyclefree all need to come back, IMHO. Great op-eds and below the line.

    I'd even have Rod Crosby (because he made us all a lot of money) and simply mod/delete any of his holocaust posts.

    Orrrr, we don't have a holocaust denier.

    We could do that instead.
    To be honest, I don't think it's an awful lot worse than some of the other shit we see on here regularly.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    Roger said:

    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    What happened to cyclefree? Chased away by Leavers or Tories or both?

    By nasty people. They come in all sorts and brands.
    I was trying to narrow it down. She added a lot
    My post above gives a pretty big hint!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,467
    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    They do (or did) to many complaints for Labour supporters on here
    I imagine the BBC calls Starmer and Williamson whatever they want to be called. It is only polite, and is surely how most of us operate in the wider world.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    BREAKING: Sky’s international correspondent @alexrossiSKY is welcomed by crowds of Ukrainian civilians as Sky News team are the first foreign journalists to reach the liberated city of Kherson.

    Live updates: trib.al/QTC8as2

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1591358914255257602

    I hope G20 attendees keep playing these videos on their phones anytime Lavrov is around….
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,320
    edited November 2022
    Are there any female posters left?
    Cyclefree’s departure is not good at all.

    This site risks becoming a bubble of broadly convergent views which in turn reduces its utility.

    No, I don’t know what the solution is.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    LostPassword said:

    Leon said:

    Damn shame if @Cyclefree has gone. And not a good sign for the site. We have a PB woman problem. We are the Republican Party of online political forums

    I find myself in the uncomfortable position of being in the group of people not hounded off pb.com, rather than the group of people who have been hounded off - which might soon be seen as the more illustrious group - and it also raises the question, "Am I one of the baddies?"
    Surely more frustrating is the panic induced by imagining you might accidentally be one of the good guys?!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    I’ve just discovered the lively community of commenters below-the-line on Unherd. Robustly and unapologetically right wing. Also highly educated, articulate, forensic. It’s like the Daily Mail with a Phd. Fascinating
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,059
    It all depends on Trump, De Santis first has to beat him for the nomination. Then hope Trump does not run as an Independent and hand the election to the Democrats
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    NEW. “UK shd pay climate reparations to developing countries for historic role in climate change"

    All adults
    Agree 23%
    Neither 14%
    Disagree 41%

    Lab
    A 43%
    N 17%
    D 25%

    Cons
    A 12%
    N 13%
    D 60%

    18-24s 33% agree/26% disagree
    65 yrs+ 21% agree/49% disagree

    @PeoplePolling Nov9

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1591378383497318400
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,320
    edited November 2022
    I doubt that Rod Crosby would agree to keeping his holocaust denialism quiet, and in any case he would be mercilessly baited on it.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,432
    Gardenwalker said:

    Are there any female posters left?
    Cyclefree’s departure is not good at all.

    This site risks becoming a bubble of broadly convergent views which in turn reduces its utility.

    No, I don’t know what the solution is.

    CarlottaVance despite the brickbats thrown her way by some of our Scottish contingent is the only one I can think of still posting regularly.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,059
    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208

    DeSantis beats Trump with college educated Republicans yes.

    Yet Trump trounces DeSantis with non college educated Republicans

    https://twitter.com/Krishan_A_Patel/status/1548407647866540033?s=20&t=k0fdne4ar9FGDMx5ghy1ZQ
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    It's not the SIR bit that troubles me. Why are they talking about this irrelevant loser at all?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,432
    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    What happened to cyclefree? Chased away by Leavers or Tories or both?

    By nasty people. They come in all sorts and brands.
    We even have some that think that Tunisians are such filthy plague carriers that if "real people" stand by them they'll be lucky not to have caught Covid.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    It's not the SIR bit that troubles me. Why are they talking about this irrelevant loser at all?
    He’s not important. That Sunak thought he merited a Cabinet position is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    CarlottaVance said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    It's not the SIR bit that troubles me. Why are they talking about this irrelevant loser at all?
    He’s not important. That Sunak thought he merited a Cabinet position is.
    A bad call now corrected. Next!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,320
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    It's not the SIR bit that troubles me. Why are they talking about this irrelevant loser at all?
    He’s not important. That Sunak thought he merited a Cabinet position is.
    A bad call now corrected. Next!
    Braverman and Raab still sitting there, stinking up the place.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Are there any female posters left?
    Cyclefree’s departure is not good at all.

    This site risks becoming a bubble of broadly convergent views which in turn reduces its utility.

    No, I don’t know what the solution is.

    CarlottaVance despite the brickbats thrown her way by some of our Scottish contingent is the only one I can think of still posting regularly.
    Must be more ... Moon?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Gardenwalker said:

    Are there any female posters left?
    Cyclefree’s departure is not good at all.

    This site risks becoming a bubble of broadly convergent views which in turn reduces its utility.

    No, I don’t know what the solution is.

    @MoonRabbit is a lady, I believe; I hope he will forgive me if I’m wrong. @Heathener also

    We do have a gender issue. It’s hard to solve because political debate is naturally combative and maybe more male; and political betting and statistics probably attracts the geekier male brain

    I’m not sure the site has “broadly convergent views”. We still have all sorts from Scot Nat to Mad Remoaner and Brexiteering Sexpatriates.

    However, I have sensed a narrowing of our scope. Too many valuable voices get banned. @isam for instance

    If the PB commentary gets dull and predictable it will die. Simple as. We ARE pb
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    They do (or did) to many complaints for Labour supporters on here
    I imagine the BBC calls Starmer and Williamson whatever they want to be called. It is only polite, and is surely how most of us operate in the wider world.
    If they have changed I am sure that is why. I can quite imagine Williamson insists on being called Sir Gavin and Keir Starmer the opposite (although in SKS’s case I believe it is pure political calculation as he liked Sir Keir when he was DPP)

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    Gardenwalker said:

    Are there any female posters left?
    Cyclefree’s departure is not good at all.

    This site risks becoming a bubble of broadly convergent views which in turn reduces its utility.

    No, I don’t know what the solution is.

    There’s probably a common link to many of these departures. May be we should apply a CIA matrix to identify it?

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Are there any female posters left?
    Cyclefree’s departure is not good at all.

    This site risks becoming a bubble of broadly convergent views which in turn reduces its utility.

    No, I don’t know what the solution is.

    CarlottaVance despite the brickbats thrown her way by some of our Scottish contingent is the only one I can think of still posting regularly.
    Moonrabbit…
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    Leon said:

    I’ve just discovered the lively community of commenters below-the-line on Unherd. Robustly and unapologetically right wing. Also highly educated, articulate, forensic. It’s like the Daily Mail with a Phd. Fascinating

    The pseudy 'revolving bow tie' quotient is quite high there though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208

    DeSantis beats Trump with college educated Republicans yes.

    Yet Trump trounces DeSantis with non college educated Republicans

    https://twitter.com/Krishan_A_Patel/status/1548407647866540033?s=20&t=k0fdne4ar9FGDMx5ghy1ZQ
    And yet, in an actual vote of 20 million people - Florida - De Santis romped home by miles, winning counties that have been Democrat for decades

    The polling might simply reflect general ignorance of De Santis amongst politically unaware Republicans, outside Florida. When voters get a look at him, they like him
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,478
    Leon said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Are there any female posters left?
    Cyclefree’s departure is not good at all.

    This site risks becoming a bubble of broadly convergent views which in turn reduces its utility.

    No, I don’t know what the solution is.

    @MoonRabbit is a lady, I believe; I hope he will forgive me if I’m wrong. @Heathener also

    We do have a gender issue. It’s hard to solve because political debate is naturally combative and maybe more male; and political betting and statistics probably attracts the geekier male brain

    I’m not sure the site has “broadly convergent views”. We still have all sorts from Scot Nat to Mad Remoaner and Brexiteering Sexpatriates.

    However, I have sensed a narrowing of our scope. Too many valuable voices get banned. @isam for instance

    If the PB commentary gets dull and predictable it will die. Simple as. We ARE pb
    What did @isam do to irritate the mods? He was always getting banned but I never saw anything particularly dodgy about his posts?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve just discovered the lively community of commenters below-the-line on Unherd. Robustly and unapologetically right wing. Also highly educated, articulate, forensic. It’s like the Daily Mail with a Phd. Fascinating

    The pseudy 'revolving bow tie' quotient is quite high there though.

    Yes, but they are entertaining in themselves
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    CarlottaVance said:

    NEW. “UK shd pay climate reparations to developing countries for historic role in climate change"

    All adults
    Agree 23%
    Neither 14%
    Disagree 41%

    Lab
    A 43%
    N 17%
    D 25%

    Cons
    A 12%
    N 13%
    D 60%

    18-24s 33% agree/26% disagree
    65 yrs+ 21% agree/49% disagree

    @PeoplePolling Nov9

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1591378383497318400

    I've been thinking about this in the context of the Maldives. They have built a successful economy that depends entirely on long haul travel. How many tonnes of carbon are generated for each $1m of Maldivian turnover? My guess is that per capita it may be the highest in the world.
    In 2020 they had 177k visitors for a population of just over 500K. That's quite a ratio and if you add in all the imported food and drink to service those tourists, wow.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,477
    Gardenwalker said:

    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    It's not the SIR bit that troubles me. Why are they talking about this irrelevant loser at all?
    He’s not important. That Sunak thought he merited a Cabinet position is.
    A bad call now corrected. Next!
    Braverman and Raab still sitting there, stinking up the place.
    Starmer's diagnosis/slur- that Rishi has got nasty middle managers in to do the nastiness he doesn't want to- is probably about right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,995
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    StillWaters said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    They do (or did) to many complaints for Labour supporters on here
    I imagine the BBC calls Starmer and Williamson whatever they want to be called. It is only polite, and is surely how most of us operate in the wider world.
    I imagine the BBC calls Hunt.....you can guess! Which is not polite.....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Will be interesting to see how/if this shifts with the budget:

    Is the UK Government currently taking the right measures to address the economic repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic? (6 November)

    No 45% (+1)
    Yes 35% (-2)
    Don’t know 20% (+2)

    Changes +/- 30 October



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591358939509231619
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,059
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208

    DeSantis beats Trump with college educated Republicans yes.

    Yet Trump trounces DeSantis with non college educated Republicans

    https://twitter.com/Krishan_A_Patel/status/1548407647866540033?s=20&t=k0fdne4ar9FGDMx5ghy1ZQ
    And yet, in an actual vote of 20 million people - Florida - De Santis romped home by miles, winning counties that have been Democrat for decades

    The polling might simply reflect general ignorance of De Santis amongst politically unaware Republicans, outside Florida. When voters get a look at him, they like him
    DeSantis was facing a Democrat last week NOT Trump so Trump voters voted for him.

    A straight fight with Trump is a completely different story and Trump also won Florida in 2020 and 2016
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Gardenwalker said:

    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    DavidL said:

    Roger said:

    Anyone else feel a little bit nauseous when they hear the BBC refer to him as SIR Gavin?

    They don't do it with Starmer

    It's not the SIR bit that troubles me. Why are they talking about this irrelevant loser at all?
    He’s not important. That Sunak thought he merited a Cabinet position is.
    A bad call now corrected. Next!
    Braverman and Raab still sitting there, stinking up the place.
    True. Raab is just completely useless though. Braverman is malevolent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,332
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    I did suggest it under evens about a week ago.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT @turbotubbs she got fed up of the personal abuse and invective on here so she's taking a break.

    I do that from time to time as well, usually when a few specific posters are about for prolonged periods.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,173
    edited November 2022
    Somewhat ungallant not to mention Carlotta, just about the longest term PB woman poster I believe.

    Edit: I see someone did! And as she’s keen to remind everyone, she’s *all* woman.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    CarlottaVance said:

    Will be interesting to see how/if this shifts with the budget:

    Is the UK Government currently taking the right measures to address the economic repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic? (6 November)

    No 45% (+1)
    Yes 35% (-2)
    Don’t know 20% (+2)

    Changes +/- 30 October



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591358939509231619

    I think it is going to be complicated. On the one hand this is going to be a tough budget with lots of cuts AND tax increases with very little good news. On the other it will hopefully show that the government has a grip of our finances again after the Covid interlude and frankly make people wonder where Labour has to go.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,332
    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208

    Ideologically pure ?
    LOL

    Trump has no ideology other than himself.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Somewhat ungallant not to mention Carlotta, just about the longest term PB woman poster I believe.

    Edit: I see someone did! And as she’s keen to remind everyone, she’s *all* woman.

    The Lisa Stansfield position.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Will be interesting to see how/if this shifts with the budget:

    Is the UK Government currently taking the right measures to address the economic repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic? (6 November)

    No 45% (+1)
    Yes 35% (-2)
    Don’t know 20% (+2)

    Changes +/- 30 October



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591358939509231619

    I think it is going to be complicated. On the one hand this is going to be a tough budget with lots of cuts AND tax increases with very little good news. On the other it will hopefully show that the government has a grip of our finances again after the Covid interlude and frankly make people wonder where Labour has to go.
    The Tories are delivering the Liam Byrne note on the floor of the Commons
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,995
    wooliedyed said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Somewhat ungallant not to mention Carlotta, just about the longest term PB woman poster I believe.

    Edit: I see someone did! And as she’s keen to remind everyone, she’s *all* woman.

    The Lisa Stansfield position.
    Been all around the world.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited November 2022
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    NEW. “UK shd pay climate reparations to developing countries for historic role in climate change"

    All adults
    Agree 23%
    Neither 14%
    Disagree 41%

    Lab
    A 43%
    N 17%
    D 25%

    Cons
    A 12%
    N 13%
    D 60%

    18-24s 33% agree/26% disagree
    65 yrs+ 21% agree/49% disagree

    @PeoplePolling Nov9

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1591378383497318400

    I've been thinking about this in the context of the Maldives. They have built a successful economy that depends entirely on long haul travel. How many tonnes of carbon are generated for each $1m of Maldivian turnover? My guess is that per capita it may be the highest in the world.
    In 2020 they had 177k visitors for a population of just over 500K. That's quite a ratio and if you add in all the imported food and drink to service those tourists, wow.
    From LHR to MAL (the U.K. is second after India in number of visitors) round trip emission is 740kg CO2 in Economy, 1480 in Business. Given the U.K. per capita CO2 emission is around 14kg/day that’s 53 days worth in economy and 106 in Business.

    https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Carbonoffset/Pages/default.aspx

    I’m not sure “stopping tourism” is the solution they’re looking for…
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,995
    DavidL said:

    Completely off topic my son is the convenor if the Oxford University International debating competition this weekend. He has just sent me a picture showing that he made his opening statements using Winston Churchill's dispatch box.

    Well if that doesn't deserve Proud Dad.....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,477
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208

    DeSantis beats Trump with college educated Republicans yes.

    Yet Trump trounces DeSantis with non college educated Republicans

    https://twitter.com/Krishan_A_Patel/status/1548407647866540033?s=20&t=k0fdne4ar9FGDMx5ghy1ZQ
    And yet, in an actual vote of 20 million people - Florida - De Santis romped home by miles, winning counties that have been Democrat for decades

    The polling might simply reflect general ignorance of De Santis amongst politically unaware Republicans, outside Florida. When voters get a look at him, they like him
    DeSantis was facing a Democrat last week NOT Trump so Trump voters voted for him.

    A straight fight with Trump is a completely different story and Trump also won Florida in 2020 and 2016
    Probably a mix of factors.

    De Santis is impressive, no doubt. Some of that can go national. Some of it won't, thought- it's a message that works best in a state packed with retirees and Cuban and and Venezuelan exiles.

    And some of the GOP's success in Florida is simple demographic drift- the voters have changed even if the places haven't.

    Question is what is the ratio of the mixture?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    CarlottaVance said:

    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    NEW. “UK shd pay climate reparations to developing countries for historic role in climate change"

    All adults
    Agree 23%
    Neither 14%
    Disagree 41%

    Lab
    A 43%
    N 17%
    D 25%

    Cons
    A 12%
    N 13%
    D 60%

    18-24s 33% agree/26% disagree
    65 yrs+ 21% agree/49% disagree

    @PeoplePolling Nov9

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1591378383497318400

    I've been thinking about this in the context of the Maldives. They have built a successful economy that depends entirely on long haul travel. How many tonnes of carbon are generated for each $1m of Maldivian turnover? My guess is that per capita it may be the highest in the world.
    In 2020 they had 177k visitors for a population of just over 500K. That's quite a ratio and if you add in all the imported food and drink to service those tourists, wow.
    From LHR to MAL (the U.K. is second after India in number of visitors) round trip emission is 740kg CO2 in Economy, 1480 in Business. Given the U.K. per capita CO2 emission is around 14kg/day that’s 53 days worth in economy and 106 in Business.

    https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Carbonoffset/Pages/default.aspx

    I’m not sure “stopping tourism” is the solution they’re looking for…
    No doubt their cheque to us for reparations is in the post.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,332
    Casino_Royale said:

    David Herdson, Alastair Meeks and Cyclefree all need to come back, IMHO. Great op-eds and below the line.

    I'd even have Rod Crosby (because he made us all a lot of money) and simply mod/delete any of his holocaust posts.

    I don't think the mods have the time to actively monitor the site like that, and can quite understand their drawing a line, FWIW.

    Otherwise, strongly agree.

    What did happen with Cyclefree ? I really miss her contributions.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    DavidL said:

    Completely off topic my son is the convenor if the Oxford University International debating competition this weekend. He has just sent me a picture showing that he made his opening statements using Winston Churchill's dispatch box.

    What an excellent beginning to his political career!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    I did suggest it under evens about a week ago.
    My certainty he won't be P again has actually cost me in a sense - led me to start laying him ages ago at quite big prices and my average is still a bit bigger than he is now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    16C, bright warm sunshine, no clouds, barely a puff of a breeze. Feels like a lovely day in late April, not mid November. Quite jarring
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Completely off topic my son is the convenor if the Oxford University International debating competition this weekend. He has just sent me a picture showing that he made his opening statements using Winston Churchill's dispatch box.

    What an excellent beginning to his political career!
    He's dropped politics for philosophy and economics this year. I don't think politics will feature in his plans going forward.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,040
    wooliedyed said:

    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Will be interesting to see how/if this shifts with the budget:

    Is the UK Government currently taking the right measures to address the economic repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic? (6 November)

    No 45% (+1)
    Yes 35% (-2)
    Don’t know 20% (+2)

    Changes +/- 30 October



    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1591358939509231619

    I think it is going to be complicated. On the one hand this is going to be a tough budget with lots of cuts AND tax increases with very little good news. On the other it will hopefully show that the government has a grip of our finances again after the Covid interlude and frankly make people wonder where Labour has to go.
    The Tories are delivering the Liam Byrne note on the floor of the Commons
    Yes they are. And no one is going to believe that the magic money tree of a windfall tax is going to make up the difference. This is going to be a real challenge for both Reeves and SKS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,332
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting take on DeSantis vs Trump:

    Ron DeSantis would be to Donald Trump in a 2024 Republican primary what Elizabeth Warren would have been to Joe Biden in a 1-on-1 2020 Democratic primary — an ideologically purer candidate who could win college-educated voters but would lose non-college educated voters by a lot.

    https://twitter.com/krishan_a_patel/status/1550923812908126208

    DeSantis beats Trump with college educated Republicans yes.

    Yet Trump trounces DeSantis with non college educated Republicans

    https://twitter.com/Krishan_A_Patel/status/1548407647866540033?s=20&t=k0fdne4ar9FGDMx5ghy1ZQ
    And yet, in an actual vote of 20 million people - Florida - De Santis romped home by miles, winning counties that have been Democrat for decades

    The polling might simply reflect general ignorance of De Santis amongst politically unaware Republicans, outside Florida. When voters get a look at him, they like him
    DeSantis was facing a Democrat last week NOT Trump so Trump voters voted for him.

    A straight fight with Trump is a completely different story and Trump also won Florida in 2020 and 2016
    Probably a mix of factors.

    De Santis is impressive, no doubt. Some of that can go national. Some of it won't, thought- it's a message that works best in a state packed with retirees and Cuban and and Venezuelan exiles.

    And some of the GOP's success in Florida is simple demographic drift- the voters have changed even if the places haven't.

    Question is what is the ratio of the mixture?
    There's a fair amount of governor baggage which is likely to dog him.
    It's more about how he deals with the increased scrutiny without having the deference given to a governor in their home state, I think. A very different challenge.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,483
    Leon said:

    16C, bright warm sunshine, no clouds, barely a puff of a breeze. Feels like a lovely day in late April, not mid November. Quite jarring

    Indeed. It's 14°C here north of Newcastle. A predicted low of 10°C tonight.
    T-Shirt and shorts weather up here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,731
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    I’ve just discovered the lively community of commenters below-the-line on Unherd. Robustly and unapologetically right wing. Also highly educated, articulate, forensic. It’s like the Daily Mail with a Phd. Fascinating

    The pseudy 'revolving bow tie' quotient is quite high there though.
    Yes, but they are entertaining in themselves
    They make me tremble so I steer clear. If I didn't I'd end up opening an account and 'debating' them - which helps nobody.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,332
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Wish I had laid the Donald. Good news for @kinabalu's book I believe.

    I did suggest it under evens about a week ago.
    My certainty he won't be P again has actually cost me in a sense - led me to start laying him ages ago at quite big prices and my average is still a bit bigger than he is now.
    Yes, I laid him originally at longer odds. Luckily just a toe in the water at the time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    16C, bright warm sunshine, no clouds, barely a puff of a breeze. Feels like a lovely day in late April, not mid November. Quite jarring

    Indeed. It's 14°C here north of Newcastle. A predicted low of 10°C tonight.
    T-Shirt and shorts weather up here.
    Is it ever NOT tee shirt and shorts in The Toon?

    I’ve been there on a frigid Saturday night in December and seen the miniskirts
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    NEW. “UK shd pay climate reparations to developing countries for historic role in climate change"

    All adults
    Agree 23%
    Neither 14%
    Disagree 41%

    Lab
    A 43%
    N 17%
    D 25%

    Cons
    A 12%
    N 13%
    D 60%

    18-24s 33% agree/26% disagree
    65 yrs+ 21% agree/49% disagree

    @PeoplePolling Nov9

    https://twitter.com/goodwinmj/status/1591378383497318400

    I've been thinking about this in the context of the Maldives. They have built a successful economy that depends entirely on long haul travel. How many tonnes of carbon are generated for each $1m of Maldivian turnover? My guess is that per capita it may be the highest in the world.
    In 2020 they had 177k visitors for a population of just over 500K. That's quite a ratio and if you add in all the imported food and drink to service those tourists, wow.
    From LHR to MAL (the U.K. is second after India in number of visitors) round trip emission is 740kg CO2 in Economy, 1480 in Business. Given the U.K. per capita CO2 emission is around 14kg/day that’s 53 days worth in economy and 106 in Business.

    https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Carbonoffset/Pages/default.aspx

    I’m not sure “stopping tourism” is the solution they’re looking for…
    Stopping poor people tourism but protecting the fragile economy of The Maldives by continuing and expanding the Luxury holiday market. That sounds a very Every COP Ever solution
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,332
    Donors are already mulling a Marshall Plan for Ukraine — To understand why it is worth trying to help Ukrainians rebuild, consider how difficult Europe’s economic recovery from the second world war actually was
    https://mobile.twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1591103264111480833
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