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Biden needs to make clear now that he won’t run in 2024 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 27 in General
Biden needs to make clear now that he won’t run in 2024 – politicalbetting.com

He’s malfunctioning again pic.twitter.com/MquEViqCZD

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    86 is mid 80s; let's not meet trouble halfway.

    Does he not lame duck himself by ruling out a 2nd term?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    edited November 10
    Obviously right. Biden is about as lucid as my Mum, who is - sadly - not very lucid. And my Mum does not intend to run America for another six years

    Biden would be 82 at the next election, and 86 when he leaves office. Ridiculous. He can barely talk coherently, now
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    My Betfair says no.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited November 10
    https://news.sky.com/story/steven-craig-jailed-for-further-15-years-for-murdering-girlfriend-who-died-21-years-after-he-set-her-on-fire-12743448

    This guy is never going to be a poster child for miscarriages of justice, but this is a ludicrous thing to happen. His initial sentence should have reflected 100% all the victim's suffering and her shortened life expectancy. Murder used to have a year and a day rule for a reason.

    Also, what a disgusting and worthless film Reservoir Dogs is.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228
    Yes, Biden needs to let the Dems have a good shot at 2024 and step aside. The issue is lack of successors. The Democratic party just seems like a parade of losers and weirdos. The GOP have got Ron DeSantis waiting to pounce, I think he will be very popular all over the nation and would win a landslide victory.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 251
    He has a stammer. BFD
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    edited November 10
    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/steven-craig-jailed-for-further-15-years-for-murdering-girlfriend-who-died-21-years-after-he-set-her-on-fire-12743448

    This guy is never going to be a poster child for miscarriages of justice, but this is a ludicrous thing to happen. His initial sentence should have reflected 100% all the victim's suffering and her shortened life expectancy. Murder used to have a year and a day rule for a reason.

    Also, what a disgusting and worthless film Reservoir Dogs is.

    He was jailed for GBH before when she was alive, now he has been jailed for murder too as she is dead. Perfectly legal
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    John Fetterman’s job for the next few months, is to make Biden appear lucid and coherent.

    But seriously, the president is about to turn 80, it’s time to stand aside. The biggest problem with that, is how to stop Kamala Harris becoming the nominee by default.

    DeDantis still likely beats anyone, so long as Trump doesn’t do a Ross Perot and fly solo.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    House drifted to 1.13/1.14

    Not sure why
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/steven-craig-jailed-for-further-15-years-for-murdering-girlfriend-who-died-21-years-after-he-set-her-on-fire-12743448

    This guy is never going to be a poster child for miscarriages of justice, but this is a ludicrous thing to happen. His initial sentence should have reflected 100% all the victim's suffering and her shortened life expectancy. Murder used to have a year and a day rule for a reason.

    Also, what a disgusting and worthless film Reservoir Dogs is.

    He was jailed for GBH before when she was alive, now he has been jailed for murder too as she is dead. Perfectly legal
    Well of course it is legal, you prawn, I am not accusing Mrs Justice Stacey of operating a kangaroo court. But his actions don't retrospectively become more than twice as bad as when he was initially sentenced, because of her death. It's not like a longer sentence becomes available, because GBH with intent = life.

    But it would have been illegal up to 1996:

    The rule known as the “year and a day rule” (that is, the rule that, for the purposes of offences involving death and of suicide, an act or omission is conclusively presumed not to have caused a person's death if more than a year and a day elapsed before he died) is abolished for all purposes.

    Law Reform (Year and a Day Rule) Act 1996
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    edited November 10
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, Biden needs to let the Dems have a good shot at 2024 and step aside. The issue is lack of successors. The Democratic party just seems like a parade of losers and weirdos. The GOP have got Ron DeSantis waiting to pounce, I think he will be very popular all over the nation and would win a landslide victory.

    Yes, you can easily see the Dems tearing each other to bits and then alighting on someone unable to pull enough of them together, especially if not up against the dreaded Trump. Since there appears to be plenty who don't want Harris (yet if Biden doesn't stand, some will probably not want to go against another shot to have a first female President)

    That said, Biden ran twice before and failed for various reasons, people can probably surprise

    If he was even 4 years younger Biden probably wouldn't be facing this concern - unless you're lucky those 4 years can make a really big difference at that age.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    I liked Buttegieg, but don't you basically need to spend 4 years campaigning to prepare the ground for you to be the nominee?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    AOC will be old enough to be President next time, just saying.

    (No, not really).
  • Probably a bit too early to think about this but re RDS' potential running mate.

    RDS is very much a data guy. So, that is going to play into how he looks at things.

    First off, I don't think he goes with the regular names - Cruz, Rubio, Cotton etc. None of thing bring anything extra in terms of votes either geographically or by demographic. Same goes for the likes of Abbott.

    Second, I don't think he will go for a Hispanic running mate, despite the obvious play. He's not only won FL but massively expanding the GOP's hold. It's clear he can win Hispanic voters and they are trending in any case to the GOP in many areas. Where they are not is generally in areas where the unions are very strong (CA, NV etc) so there's no advantage.

    That leaves three likely possibilities.

    One is Tim Scott of SC. He's very good, experienced and, of course, Black. However, he doesn't bring a new geographical area. More to the point, the GOP has tried with a number of Black candidates and it doesn't seem to weaken the D's hold on the electorate (which is based on church in many cases).

    The second is Nikki Hailey or someone similar. There the target is suburban women who have deserted the GOP. That's a definite option, so specially if the view cements that abortion cost the GOP votes.

    The third, would be Lee Zeldin, given not only how close he ran Kathy Hochul in NY but also how he's credited with dragging several House candidates across the line (and arguably giving the GOP its House majority). No one is thinking NY would go DeSantis (though it's clear the foundations for the Ds are shakier than thought) but he would be seen as someone who would appeal to WWC voters who want someone tough on crime and speaks their language

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,932
    Ralston tweeted 20 mins ago he is going on MSNBC in a few mins.

    Can anyone report back?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,486
    Sandpit said:

    John Fetterman’s job for the next few months, is to make Biden appear lucid and coherent.

    But seriously, the president is about to turn 80, it’s time to stand aside. The biggest problem with that, is how to stop Kamala Harris becoming the nominee by default.

    DeDantis still likely beats anyone, so long as Trump doesn’t do a Ross Perot and fly solo.

    You last sentence is why DeSantis is not a shoo in.

    Trump has no loyalty to the Republican Party. He cares about himself and his family. He doesn't want DeSantis to succeed, even if DeSantis was doing Trump-y things.

    This is what makes the coming year and a bit so difficult for the Republican Party.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,932
    edited November 10
    See link for all outstanding House races.

    There are several in CA with under 50% counted with Rep leads.

    If most or all were to turn Dem then Dem could win - assuming Dem don't lose their current leads.

    No idea re likelihood.

    https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 535
    If Biden says he won't stand again and he's backing Harris as his successor, Trump will announce his candidacy for the Republican nomination within a day.

    The best president out of all those who are currently considered possibles would be Michelle Obama. She would actually seek to change important stuff for the better in the USA and she may well be as feared as Trump (who is feared for the diametrically opposite reason that he would wreck the place even further by starting a civil war).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,486

    Probably a bit too early to think about this but re RDS' potential running mate.

    RDS is very much a data guy. So, that is going to play into how he looks at things.

    First off, I don't think he goes with the regular names - Cruz, Rubio, Cotton etc. None of thing bring anything extra in terms of votes either geographically or by demographic. Same goes for the likes of Abbott.

    Second, I don't think he will go for a Hispanic running mate, despite the obvious play. He's not only won FL but massively expanding the GOP's hold. It's clear he can win Hispanic voters and they are trending in any case to the GOP in many areas. Where they are not is generally in areas where the unions are very strong (CA, NV etc) so there's no advantage.

    That leaves three likely possibilities.

    One is Tim Scott of SC. He's very good, experienced and, of course, Black. However, he doesn't bring a new geographical area. More to the point, the GOP has tried with a number of Black candidates and it doesn't seem to weaken the D's hold on the electorate (which is based on church in many cases).

    The second is Nikki Hailey or someone similar. There the target is suburban women who have deserted the GOP. That's a definite option, so specially if the view cements that abortion cost the GOP votes.

    The third, would be Lee Zeldin, given not only how close he ran Kathy Hochul in NY but also how he's credited with dragging several House candidates across the line (and arguably giving the GOP its House majority). No one is thinking NY would go DeSantis (though it's clear the foundations for the Ds are shakier than thought) but he would be seen as someone who would appeal to WWC voters who want someone tough on crime and speaks their language

    Nikki Haley would be my pick. But she is very close to Trump. Would she dump him now for RDS?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    John Fetterman’s job for the next few months, is to make Biden appear lucid and coherent.

    But seriously, the president is about to turn 80, it’s time to stand aside. The biggest problem with that, is how to stop Kamala Harris becoming the nominee by default.

    DeDantis still likely beats anyone, so long as Trump doesn’t do a Ross Perot and fly solo.

    You last sentence is why DeSantis is not a shoo in.

    Trump has no loyalty to the Republican Party. He cares about himself and his family. He doesn't want DeSantis to succeed, even if DeSantis was doing Trump-y things.

    This is what makes the coming year and a bit so difficult for the Republican Party.
    We just need Leondamus to tip DeSantis as next Pres, and we can all lump in on the Dems.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Probably a bit too early to think about this but re RDS' potential running mate.

    RDS is very much a data guy. So, that is going to play into how he looks at things.

    First off, I don't think he goes with the regular names - Cruz, Rubio, Cotton etc. None of thing bring anything extra in terms of votes either geographically or by demographic. Same goes for the likes of Abbott.

    Second, I don't think he will go for a Hispanic running mate, despite the obvious play. He's not only won FL but massively expanding the GOP's hold. It's clear he can win Hispanic voters and they are trending in any case to the GOP in many areas. Where they are not is generally in areas where the unions are very strong (CA, NV etc) so there's no advantage.

    That leaves three likely possibilities.

    One is Tim Scott of SC. He's very good, experienced and, of course, Black. However, he doesn't bring a new geographical area. More to the point, the GOP has tried with a number of Black candidates and it doesn't seem to weaken the D's hold on the electorate (which is based on church in many cases).

    The second is Nikki Hailey or someone similar. There the target is suburban women who have deserted the GOP. That's a definite option, so specially if the view cements that abortion cost the GOP votes.

    The third, would be Lee Zeldin, given not only how close he ran Kathy Hochul in NY but also how he's credited with dragging several House candidates across the line (and arguably giving the GOP its House majority). No one is thinking NY would go DeSantis (though it's clear the foundations for the Ds are shakier than thought) but he would be seen as someone who would appeal to WWC voters who want someone tough on crime and speaks their language

    Pompeo might run, hes been making a big thing of endorsements this election
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,885
    edited November 10
    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304
    Lane still the betting favourite.
  • I've just fallen in love with another NPR Music Tiny Desk concert, so had to tell you all

    This is Mexican songstress Natalia Lafourcade

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JODaYjDyjyQ
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    Surely the biggest question is which out of touch billionaire without a hope will spaff hundreds of millions away in the primaries?

    Bloomberg could go again, if only to constantly remind Trump what a reallllly rich guy is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    I liked Buttegieg, but don't you basically need to spend 4 years campaigning to prepare the ground for you to be the nominee?
    Not if you are from the incumbent party. If Biden does not run again he would be in pole position to be heir apparent, though if Biden does run again then the President will almost certainly be Democratic nominee again
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    edited November 10

    House drifted to 1.13/1.14

    Not sure why

    Profit taking as settlement probably a few days away yet?

    Dont think there is a realistic chance GOP dont take house
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304
    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    Although I noted your post yesterday saying that 30% of the electorate, inc many Dems and Independents, wouldn't vote for a gay president?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    Most people who are ageing gracefully are not also running the most powerful nation on Earth.

    Biden seems in decent enough nick, physically, but the chances of a swift deterioration do increase quite markedly.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    If the Republicans did take back the senate, 89 year old corn obsessive Chuck Grassley would be third in line to the Presidency
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere youth compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous +1.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    Drivel, dear. Your very good article is a puff piece ("Friedland has written a new book called Unageing," fancy that!) and makes no claims about *reversing* decline, just about preventing it. Biden is bad now and is highly likely to be gaga at 86. Way it works.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    John Fetterman’s job for the next few months, is to make Biden appear lucid and coherent.

    But seriously, the president is about to turn 80, it’s time to stand aside. The biggest problem with that, is how to stop Kamala Harris becoming the nominee by default.

    DeDantis still likely beats anyone, so long as Trump doesn’t do a Ross Perot and fly solo.

    You last sentence is why DeSantis is not a shoo in.

    Trump has no loyalty to the Republican Party. He cares about himself and his family. He doesn't want DeSantis to succeed, even if DeSantis was doing Trump-y things.

    This is what makes the coming year and a bit so difficult for the Republican Party.
    It makes Trump a clear lay for the presidency though as he quite probably doesn't win as a Republican and definitely won't win flying solo.

    Trump running makes the Democrat candidate a dead cert, which I assume to be Biden (since he says so) unless he drops and they pick someone equally repellent - like Hillary Clinton.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    Ishmael_Z said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/steven-craig-jailed-for-further-15-years-for-murdering-girlfriend-who-died-21-years-after-he-set-her-on-fire-12743448

    This guy is never going to be a poster child for miscarriages of justice, but this is a ludicrous thing to happen. His initial sentence should have reflected 100% all the victim's suffering and her shortened life expectancy. Murder used to have a year and a day rule for a reason.

    Also, what a disgusting and worthless film Reservoir Dogs is.

    He was jailed for GBH before when she was alive, now he has been jailed for murder too as she is dead. Perfectly legal
    Well of course it is legal, you prawn, I am not accusing Mrs Justice Stacey of operating a kangaroo court. But his actions don't retrospectively become more than twice as bad as when he was initially sentenced, because of her death. It's not like a longer sentence becomes available, because GBH with intent = life.

    But it would have been illegal up to 1996:

    The rule known as the “year and a day rule” (that is, the rule that, for the purposes of offences involving death and of suicide, an act or omission is conclusively presumed not to have caused a person's death if more than a year and a day elapsed before he died) is abolished for all purposes.

    Law Reform (Year and a Day Rule) Act 1996
    He was released after 18 years, however a GBH charge plus a murder charge means a longer minimum sentence.

    So after the 1996 Act he can have a murder charge added to his previous GBH charge
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,885
    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 535
    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304
    Ishmael_Z said:

    https://news.sky.com/story/steven-craig-jailed-for-further-15-years-for-murdering-girlfriend-who-died-21-years-after-he-set-her-on-fire-12743448

    This guy is never going to be a poster child for miscarriages of justice, but this is a ludicrous thing to happen. His initial sentence should have reflected 100% all the victim's suffering and her shortened life expectancy. Murder used to have a year and a day rule for a reason.

    Also, what a disgusting and worthless film Reservoir Dogs is.

    The film has things I like but I absolutely hate that torture scene. Can't watch it.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    How would they choose a VP? Surely the selection would be intensely contested to the point where it's not accepted at the convention.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly for his age if he wants to.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,885
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere youth compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous +1.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    Drivel, dear. Your very good article is a puff piece ("Friedland has written a new book called Unageing," fancy that!) and makes no claims about *reversing* decline, just about preventing it. Biden is bad now and is highly likely to be gaga at 86. Way it works.
    Your infamous rudeness (to be polite) bubbling up once more from the chthonian depths I see.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,885

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    If the Republicans did take back the senate, 89 year old corn obsessive Chuck Grassley would be third in line to the Presidency
    Excellent.

    My point though about how they look after themselves way better than the UK equivalents stands. Ours have gone to seed and booze.

    Joe Biden is positively sprightly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197

    House drifted to 1.13/1.14

    Not sure why

    Profit taking as settlement probably a few days away yet?

    Dont think there is a realistic chance GOP dont take house
    If absolutely everything went wrong for them I still think they get to 216 seats, so two short, but the odds of that must be miniscule.

    It'd basically rely upon them to lose every single remaining close race.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    So if Biden says he is not running the talk about his mental and physical condition will go into overdrive.

    If he doesn't say he backs Harris that's a slam on her, and the party immediately starts sticking daggers in one another. If he does say he backs Harris they still do that
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Hon members who followed my 2 November tip of BDEV will be gratified to note that it has climbed steadily since then and today is up 5.85% on the day.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly for his age if he wants to.
    Being a constitutional monarch just head of state is rather different to being Head of Government as well as Head of State as Biden is however with significant control over foreign and domestic policy
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,683
    Heathener said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere youth compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous +1.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    Drivel, dear. Your very good article is a puff piece ("Friedland has written a new book called Unageing," fancy that!) and makes no claims about *reversing* decline, just about preventing it. Biden is bad now and is highly likely to be gaga at 86. Way it works.
    Your infamous rudeness (to be polite) bubbling up once more from the chthonian depths I see.
    If you think that’s rude, stick around. He gets much worse later in the drinking evening.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    If the Republicans did take back the senate, 89 year old corn obsessive Chuck Grassley would be third in line to the Presidency
    Excellent.

    My point though about how they look after themselves way better than the UK equivalents stands. Ours have gone to seed and booze.

    Joe Biden is positively sprightly.
    But demented. Good combo.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,936

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and
    calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly
    for his age if he wants to.
    Yes he’s blessed with one of the strongest and most popular Veep’s of recent decades to do all the heavy lifting.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,583
    Over 5.000 votes still need signatures in Clark County

    "If you are a Dem voter in Nevada / Clark County and have received a message to cure your ballot, please reach out and do so. The Clark County Elections Department has a hotline for those who receive a notice. That hotline is (702) 455-6552. EVERY VOTE COUNTS."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    edited November 10
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    Although I noted your post yesterday saying that 30% of the electorate, inc many Dems and Independents, wouldn't vote for a gay president?
    Most of those saying they wouldn't vote for a gay President were Republicans and 70% said they would vote for a gay President and Buttigieg only needs 45 to 50% to win, less than that if DeSantis is GOP nominee and Trump runs as an independent. Clinton won with just 43% in 1992 v Bush 41 and Perot
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758
    kle4 said:

    So if Biden says he is not running the talk about his mental and physical condition will go into overdrive.

    If he doesn't say he backs Harris that's a slam on her, and the party immediately starts sticking daggers in one another. If he does say he backs Harris they still do that

    Indeed. Biden makes his decision in late 2023 imo.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and
    calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly
    for his age if he wants to.
    Yes he’s blessed with one of the strongest and most popular Veep’s of recent decades to do all the heavy lifting.

    Her tilt at the nomination was outstanding. She's clearly very well liked and respected in the party
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304
    Leon said:

    Obviously right. Biden is about as lucid as my Mum, who is - sadly - not very lucid. And my Mum does not intend to run America for another six years

    Biden would be 82 at the next election, and 86 when he leaves office. Ridiculous. He can barely talk coherently, now

    I'm doing the same 'my mum' mental comparison, funnily enough. Biden's different league. My mum's still alert and mobile but no way she could have got a big infrastructure bill through a divided Congress, or led a complex, strong but nuanced western response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,542
    edited November 10
    DJ41 said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
    Gosh, I've just realised that Joe Biden has the privilege of sharing my birthday. Didn't know that. The date, not the year, obviously.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065
    rcs1000 said:

    Probably a bit too early to think about this but re RDS' potential running mate.

    RDS is very much a data guy. So, that is going to play into how he looks at things.

    First off, I don't think he goes with the regular names - Cruz, Rubio, Cotton etc. None of thing bring anything extra in terms of votes either geographically or by demographic. Same goes for the likes of Abbott.

    Second, I don't think he will go for a Hispanic running mate, despite the obvious play. He's not only won FL but massively expanding the GOP's hold. It's clear he can win Hispanic voters and they are trending in any case to the GOP in many areas. Where they are not is generally in areas where the unions are very strong (CA, NV etc) so there's no advantage.

    That leaves three likely possibilities.

    One is Tim Scott of SC. He's very good, experienced and, of course, Black. However, he doesn't bring a new geographical area. More to the point, the GOP has tried with a number of Black candidates and it doesn't seem to weaken the D's hold on the electorate (which is based on church in many cases).

    The second is Nikki Hailey or someone similar. There the target is suburban women who have deserted the GOP. That's a definite option, so specially if the view cements that abortion cost the GOP votes.

    The third, would be Lee Zeldin, given not only how close he ran Kathy Hochul in NY but also how he's credited with dragging several House candidates across the line (and arguably giving the GOP its House majority). No one is thinking NY would go DeSantis (though it's clear the foundations for the Ds are shakier than thought) but he would be seen as someone who would appeal to WWC voters who want someone tough on crime and speaks their language

    Nikki Haley would be my pick. But she is very close to Trump. Would she dump him now for RDS?
    Whenever anyone mentions RDS on here, I wonder why people are taking about FM... ;)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Data_System
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere youth compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous +1.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    Drivel, dear. Your very good article is a puff piece ("Friedland has written a new book called Unageing," fancy that!) and makes no claims about *reversing* decline, just about preventing it. Biden is bad now and is highly likely to be gaga at 86. Way it works.
    Your infamous rudeness (to be polite) bubbling up once more from the chthonian depths I see.
    What? Your own MO is to breeze in in the morning, say something slightly-to-utterly wrong, declare you have better company to keep than the elderly white male bedwetters of PB, and flounce. I have merely very courteously nailed you for passing off a book-to-sell bit of flimflam as serious journalism, and for your apparent lack of first hand experience of elderly decline. I can promise you from observations of a reasonably large sample of ageing relatives, bad at 80 means much, much worse at 86.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    It is way too early to talk about DeSantis as nominee except if generating column inches. He won well this week against an ex-Republican governor but he needs to do the job in most of 49 other states, including some evangelical electorates.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304

    kle4 said:

    So if Biden says he is not running the talk about his mental and physical condition will go into overdrive.

    If he doesn't say he backs Harris that's a slam on her, and the party immediately starts sticking daggers in one another. If he does say he backs Harris they still do that

    Indeed. Biden makes his decision in late 2023 imo.
    Although he's said it'll be early 2023.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374

    DJ41 said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
    Gosh, I've just realised that Joe Biden has the privilege of sharing my birthday. Didn't know
    that. The date, not the year, obviously.
    The only remotely famous person I’m aware of that shared my birthday was J. Edgar Hoover. Which isn’t ideal.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,330
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Obviously right. Biden is about as lucid as my Mum, who is - sadly - not very lucid. And my Mum does not intend to run America for another six years

    Biden would be 82 at the next election, and 86 when he leaves office. Ridiculous. He can barely talk coherently, now

    I'm doing the same 'my mum' mental comparison, funnily enough. Biden's different league. My mum's still alert and mobile but no way she could have got a big infrastructure bill through a divided Congress, or led a complex, strong but nuanced western response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
    Are you sure Biden did either of those things himself? I mean spearheaded them rather than merely acquiesced to them?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, Biden needs to let the Dems have a good shot at 2024 and step aside. The issue is lack of successors. The Democratic party just seems like a parade of losers and weirdos. The GOP have got Ron DeSantis waiting to pounce, I think he will be very popular all over the nation and would win a landslide victory.

    De Santis' backstory is incredible. Like a Hollywood character profile of "ideal presidential material"

    "Born in Jacksonville, DeSantis spent most of his childhood in Dunedin, Florida. He graduated from Yale University and Harvard Law School. DeSantis joined the United States Navy in 2004 and was promoted to lieutenant before serving as a legal advisor to SEAL Team One; he was deployed to Iraq in 2007.

    During his military career, DeSantis has been awarded the Bronze Star Medal, the Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal, the Global War on Terrorism Service Medal, and the Iraq Campaign Medal.[20][21][22] As of 2022, he is still serving in the U.S. Navy Reserve.[1]


    When he returned to the U.S. a year later, the U.S. Department of Justice appointed DeSantis to serve as a Special Assistant U.S. attorney..."

    (Wiki)

    And so on

    And he has the perfect telegenic family

    I agree that he would beat, soundly, almost any conceivable Democrat opponent. He just needs Trump to eff off
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,486
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Obviously right. Biden is about as lucid as my Mum, who is - sadly - not very lucid. And my Mum does not intend to run America for another six years

    Biden would be 82 at the next election, and 86 when he leaves office. Ridiculous. He can barely talk coherently, now

    I'm doing the same 'my mum' mental comparison, funnily enough. Biden's different league. My mum's still alert and mobile but no way she could have got a big infrastructure bill through a divided Congress, or led a complex, strong but nuanced western response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
    That's a comparison path that would be quite dark for some of us.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited November 10
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    So if Biden says he is not running the talk about his mental and physical condition will go into overdrive.

    If he doesn't say he backs Harris that's a slam on her, and the party immediately starts sticking daggers in one another. If he does say he backs Harris they still do that

    Indeed. Biden makes his decision in late 2023 imo.
    Although he's said it'll be early 2023.
    Yeah late 23 is too late, unlikely anyone of note would run against him but they'd want a much longer run in to New Hampshire in Feb than a few weeks if he's not running imo
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DJ41 said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
    I think it is asymmetrical. Early 80s up to and inc 85, mid 86-88.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,771
    edited November 10
    Sandpit said:

    John Fetterman’s job for the next few months, is to make Biden appear lucid and coherent.

    But seriously, the president is about to turn 80, it’s time to stand aside. The biggest problem with that, is how to stop Kamala Harris becoming the nominee by default.

    DeDantis still likely beats anyone, so long as Trump doesn’t do a Ross Perot and fly solo.

    Not convinced. 3 factors could easily derail DeSantis in a GE

    1. His social conservatism/ abortion views could energise the young and female vote just as it seems to have harmed the GOP this week.

    2. It is not yet clear who his Dem opponent will be and it could result in a much stiffer challenge than an aged Biden would present, and there is no certainty whatsoever that it would be Harris.

    3. You allude to Trump running as an independent and even if he doesn't he is not the sort of person that takes defeat gracefully. He will be a real thorn in DeSantis's side from here on in and his really fanatical supporters may well stay at home if he's not on the ballot on 2024. The issue of getting a conservative majority on the Supreme Court has become irrelevant
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    edited November 10
    EPG said:

    It is way too early to talk about DeSantis as nominee except if generating column inches. He won well this week against an ex-Republican governor but he needs to do the job in most of 49 other states, including some evangelical electorates.

    The Democrats best hope is DeSantis wins the nomination narrowly after a bitter and divisive primary battle with Trump that lasts for months, then Trump runs as an independent.

    Their second best hope is they face Trump again, their worst scenario is DeSantis wins the GOP nomination clearly and Trump then reluctantly endorses him
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly for his age if he wants to.
    Being a constitutional monarch just head of state is rather different to being Head of Government as well as Head of State as Biden is however with significant control over foreign and domestic policy
    True, but she still had to sign off on all the same shit, meet the PM each week, the Privy Council, deal with her family, do national speeches etc.

    I don't see a reason why Biden can't complete a second term. He's always said stupid shit too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    Although I noted your post yesterday saying that 30% of the electorate, inc many Dems and Independents, wouldn't vote for a gay president?
    Most of those saying they wouldn't vote for a gay President were Republicans and 70% said they would vote for a gay President and Buttigieg only needs 45 to 50% to win, less than that if DeSantis is GOP nominee and Trump runs as an independent. Clinton won with just 43% in 1992 v Bush 41 and Perot
    Only 70% said they would inc 46% of Republicans per your survey. That's not good for any gay candidate if it's true. But maybe it isn't. I didn’t delve.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and
    calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly
    for his age if he wants to.
    Yes he’s blessed with one of the strongest and most popular Veep’s of recent decades to do all the heavy lifting.

    Harris is... popular?

    She seems like Penny Mordaunt to me, without the popularity.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    Although I noted your post yesterday saying that 30% of the electorate, inc many Dems and Independents, wouldn't vote for a gay president?
    Most of those saying they wouldn't vote for a gay President were Republicans and 70% said they would vote for a gay President and Buttigieg only needs 45 to 50% to win, less than that if DeSantis is GOP nominee and Trump runs as an independent. Clinton won with just 43% in 1992 v Bush 41 and Perot
    Only 70% said they would inc 46% of Republicans per your survey. That's not good for any gay candidate if it's true. But maybe it isn't. I didn’t delve.
    Looking at the margins it doesnt need much impact. A deciding factor for a few % is enough
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    If Trump doesn't run that makes it slightly less likely Biden will run, IMHO.

    There's a rock, paper, scissors thing going on.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 2,639
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Obviously right. Biden is about as lucid as my Mum, who is - sadly - not very lucid. And my Mum does not intend to run America for another six years

    Biden would be 82 at the next election, and 86 when he leaves office. Ridiculous. He can barely talk coherently, now

    I'm doing the same 'my mum' mental comparison, funnily enough. Biden's different league. My mum's still alert and mobile but no way she could have got a big infrastructure bill through a divided Congress, or led a complex, strong but nuanced western response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
    I’d have to try his Victoria sponge for a well rounded comparison.
  • And this when you thought the advantage lay with CCM in Nevada....(important Ralston tweet)

    https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1590778229941379073?s=46&t=kWXfogyBD9pgrwB8FUQqKA
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere youth compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous +1.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    Drivel, dear. Your very good article is a puff piece ("Friedland has written a new book called Unageing," fancy that!) and makes no claims about *reversing* decline, just about preventing it. Biden is bad now and is highly likely to be gaga at 86. Way it works.
    Your infamous rudeness (to be polite) bubbling up once more from the chthonian depths I see.
    What? Your own MO is to breeze in in the morning, say something slightly-to-utterly wrong, declare you have better company to keep than the elderly white male bedwetters of PB, and flounce. I have merely very courteously nailed you for passing off a book-to-sell bit of flimflam as serious journalism, and for your apparent lack of first hand experience of elderly decline. I can promise you from observations of a reasonably large sample of ageing relatives, bad at 80 means much, much worse at 86.
    I would just comment that my wife (83) and I (79) both acknowledge our ageing and Joe Biden shows a lot of characteristics of this ageing process which does accelerate and in some cases very quickly

    Joe Biden should retire gracefully, and furthermore what does it say about US politics that someone like Biden can be seen as the future

    I should comment that I am delighted Trump has failed and hopefully both the Democrats and Republicans can field decent candidates in 2024 and not the tired old guard
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Oooh, biiig back of Rural votes to coubt in Nevada.

    6000 in Douglas.

    That was not in the script
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    The best result for AMERICA is a solid De Santis win in 2024

    That's a route back to political sanity for the whole nation, and a long step away from the civil war precipice

    De Santis is rightwing and anti-Woke enough to be entirely agreeable to the Republicans (apart from the outright QAnon nutters) BUT he is not an election denier, he's not mad, Trump dislikes and fears him (a good sign), and he might actually be a good, clever president. So the left can at least tolerate De Santis (apart from the ultra-woke, but they are as bad and as intractable as the QAnon types on the right, and should be ignored for the same reason)

    Say De Santis wins two terms, by the end the Democrats should have purged their Marxist nutters and they will then offer a young centrist candidate who then wins for the Dems. And America is saved!

    De Santis is the optimistic option for the USA. Trump remains the nightmare
  • And this when you thought the advantage lay with CCM in Nevada....(important Ralston tweet)

    https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1590778229941379073?
    s=46&t=kWXfogyBD9pgrwB8FUQqKA

    Make sure you click through to the links as well - Douglas County apparently has 7K postal service to count

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
    Gosh, I've just realised that Joe Biden has the privilege of sharing my birthday. Didn't know
    that. The date, not the year, obviously.
    The only remotely famous person I’m aware of that shared my birthday was J. Edgar Hoover. Which isn’t ideal.

    Paul Revere, EM Forster, Dana Andrews, JD Salinger, Joe Orton, Kim Philby
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,262
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    Although I noted your post yesterday saying that 30% of the electorate, inc many Dems and Independents, wouldn't vote for a gay president?
    Why
    Most of those saying they wouldn't vote for a gay President were Republicans and 70% said they would vote for a gay President and Buttigieg only needs 45 to 50% to win, less than that if DeSantis is GOP nominee and Trump runs as an independent. Clinton won with just 43% in 1992 v Bush 41 and Perot
    Only 70% said they would inc 46% of Republicans per your survey. That's not good for any gay candidate if it's true. But maybe it isn't. I didn’t delve.
    About 80% of Democrats and Independents would vote for a gay candidate, Buttigieg can win with that. Especially with the increasing likelihood of a DeSantis GOP nomination and Trump Independent candidacy, in which case Buttigieg could win with just 40 to 45% of the vote with the Republican vote split

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-democratic-voters-reluctant-to-support-a-gay-candidate/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and
    calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly
    for his age if he wants to.
    Yes he’s blessed with one of the strongest and most popular Veep’s of recent decades to do all the heavy lifting.

    Harris is... popular?

    She seems like Penny Mordaunt to me, without the popularity.
    I think it was tongue in cheek. She doesnt seem to have any base within the party
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 895
    FPT: Since some of you are interested in climate change, may I recommend Stephen E. Koonin's sober book, "Unsettled".

    Here's his own summary: "Writing this book has been an opportunity to collect and synthesize experiences over a fifteen-year journey in climate and energy. I began by believing we were in a race to save the planet from climate catastrophe. Since then, I've evolved to become a public critic of how The Science of climate science is presented." (p. 249)

    For those impressed by credentials, I'll add that he is a theoretical physicist, was a vice president at Caltech, and "Undersecretary for Science in the U. S. Department of Energy under President Obama".

    (You don't need to be a physicist to understand the book, though you would need to be to follow some of his many references.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,991

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and
    calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly
    for his age if he wants to.
    Yes he’s blessed with one of the strongest and most popular Veep’s of recent decades to do all the heavy lifting.

    Harris is... popular?

    She seems like Penny Mordaunt to me, without the popularity.
    I think it was tongue in cheek. She doesnt seem to have any base within the party
    She loves Venn diagrams apparently.

    https://twitter.com/TheLeoTerrell/status/1586703602197864452
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,586
    Leon said:

    The best result for AMERICA is a solid De Santis win in 2024

    That's a route back to political sanity for the whole nation, and a long step away from the civil war precipice

    De Santis is rightwing and anti-Woke enough to be entirely agreeable to the Republicans (apart from the outright QAnon nutters) BUT he is not an election denier, he's not mad, Trump dislikes and fears him (a good sign), and he might actually be a good, clever president. So the left can at least tolerate De Santis (apart from the ultra-woke, but they are as bad and as intractable as the QAnon types on the right, and should be ignored for the same reason)

    Say De Santis wins two terms, by the end the Democrats should have purged their Marxist nutters and they will then offer a young centrist candidate who then wins for the Dems. And America is saved!

    De Santis is the optimistic option for the USA. Trump remains the nightmare

    A case worth examining and testing over time. It may well be right.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    moonshine said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's. A mere whippersnapper compared to Senator Strom Thurmond who retired from Congress at the age of 101. Marvellous.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Okay so Joe Biden stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger evangelical zealot.

    Very good article in today's i on ageing and about how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196


    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson !

    I think this is a UK-centric story. We're not used to ageing politicians who live the American dream and stay fit and sprightly. Most of the ageing old tory crusties look like they're on death's door. Sir Edward Leigh is the spit of Rowley Birkin QC.
    I agree, in America it's seen as a sign of fitness and vigour - living the dream, as you say - and retirement in old age has a bit of a stigma.

    HMQ went well into her 90s - albeit with increasing problems - and Biden will run and
    calibrate how he does the Presidency accordingly
    for his age if he wants to.
    Yes he’s blessed with one of the strongest and most popular Veep’s of recent decades to do all the heavy lifting.

    Harris is... popular?

    She seems like Penny Mordaunt to me, without the popularity.
    I think it was tongue in cheek. She doesnt seem to have any base within the party
    She loves Venn diagrams apparently.

    https://twitter.com/TheLeoTerrell/status/1586703602197864452
    And laughing inappropriately. And of course holding the world record for Border Tsar furthest on average from the Border at all times
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biden would still be more electable than Harris.

    Though yes a younger more centrist candidate like Biden's Transport Secretary and 2020 candidate Buttigieg would be the Democrats best bet. Especially if De Santis beats Trump for the GOP nomination, as in 2020 a lot of Biden votes were anti Trump rather than for him

    Although I noted your post yesterday saying that 30% of the electorate, inc many Dems and Independents, wouldn't vote for a gay president?
    People say all kinds of things to pollsters that they don't follow through with when they actually vote.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046

    FPT: Since some of you are interested in climate change, may I recommend Stephen E. Koonin's sober book, "Unsettled".

    Here's his own summary: "Writing this book has been an opportunity to collect and synthesize experiences over a fifteen-year journey in climate and energy. I began by believing we were in a race to save the planet from climate catastrophe. Since then, I've evolved to become a public critic of how The Science of climate science is presented." (p. 249)

    For those impressed by credentials, I'll add that he is a theoretical physicist, was a vice president at Caltech, and "Undersecretary for Science in the U. S. Department of Energy under President Obama".

    (You don't need to be a physicist to understand the book, though you would need to be to follow some of his many references.)

    Excellent, why did we bother with a mainstream scientific consensus then?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    FPT: Since some of you are interested in climate change, may I recommend Stephen E. Koonin's sober book, "Unsettled".

    Here's his own summary: "Writing this book has been an opportunity to collect and synthesize experiences over a fifteen-year journey in climate and energy. I began by believing we were in a race to save the planet from climate catastrophe. Since then, I've evolved to become a public critic of how The Science of climate science is presented." (p. 249)

    For those impressed by credentials, I'll add that he is a theoretical physicist, was a vice president at Caltech, and "Undersecretary for Science in the U. S. Department of Energy under President Obama".

    (You don't need to be a physicist to understand the book, though you would need to be to follow some of his many references.)

    Bizarrely, your bio sketch omits "chief scientist at BP."

    I have no doubt that google is institutionally warmist, but the first two results which are critiques of the book are very strongly critical

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-new-book-manages-to-get-climate-science-badly-wrong/

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2021/08/15/book-review-unsettled-what-climate-science-tells-us-what-it-doesnt-and-why-it-matters-by-steve-koonin/


  • On Topic - One fly in the ointment with respect to President Biden announcing or otherwise making it clear "NOW" that he will not be candidate for re-election in 2024, is that doing so would turn him into an immediate lame duck.

    At a critical juncture for his administration, party AND country. Ditto world.

    IF Joe Biden decides (or is compelled) NOT to run in '24, then probably better for Democrats in general AND eventual Democratic nominee in this scenario) that official starting gun NOT sound for another six months and perhaps more.

    Including for hopefuls currently members of the Biden administration.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065
    Ishmael_Z said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
    Gosh, I've just realised that Joe Biden has the privilege of sharing my birthday. Didn't know
    that. The date, not the year, obviously.
    The only remotely famous person I’m aware of that shared my birthday was J. Edgar Hoover. Which isn’t ideal.

    Paul Revere, EM Forster, Dana Andrews, JD Salinger, Joe Orton, Kim Philby
    William Smith (Geologist), Joan Crawford, Wernher von Braun, Roger Bannister

    And of course, PB itself. ;)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304
    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Obviously right. Biden is about as lucid as my Mum, who is - sadly - not very lucid. And my Mum does not intend to run America for another six years

    Biden would be 82 at the next election, and 86 when he leaves office. Ridiculous. He can barely talk coherently, now

    I'm doing the same 'my mum' mental comparison, funnily enough. Biden's different league. My mum's still alert and mobile but no way she could have got a big infrastructure bill through a divided Congress, or led a complex, strong but nuanced western response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
    I’d have to try his Victoria sponge for a well rounded comparison.
    🙂 - Yes sorry, forgot balance. My mum doesn't bake though. What she does do is a decent gossip about this and that.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,936
    OllyT said:

    Sandpit said:

    John Fetterman’s job for the next few months, is to make Biden appear lucid and coherent.

    But seriously, the president is about to turn 80, it’s time to stand aside. The biggest problem with that, is how to stop Kamala Harris becoming the nominee by default.

    DeDantis still likely beats anyone, so long as Trump doesn’t do a Ross Perot and fly solo.

    Not convinced. 3 factors could easily derail DeSantis in a GE

    1. His social conservatism/ abortion views could energise the young and female vote just as it seems to have harmed the GOP this week.

    2. It is not yet clear who his Dem opponent will be and it could result in a much stiffer challenge than an aged Biden would present, and there is no certainty whatsoever that it would be Harris.

    3. You allude to Trump running as an independent and even if he doesn't he is not the sort of person that takes defeat gracefully. He will be a real thorn in DeSantis's side from here on in and his really fanatical supporters may well stay at home if he's not on the ballot on 2024. The issue of getting a conservative majority on the Supreme Court has become irrelevant
    1) “On April 14, 2022, he signed into law a bill that bans elective abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, shortening the period of viability from 24 weeks.”

    So he brought the law in Florida in line with the EU average and is more liberal on the matter than for example Germany.

    2) It’s not obvious there are Democrat politicians ready to break from the field who really would present a significantly stiffer challenge than Biden. Perhaps? I still think the Democrats best chance is a celebrity candidate rather than a serving politician. Michelle Obama or Matthew McConaughey. But they’re not yet desperate enough to cast aside the career politicians.

    3) No Trump on the ballot might keep the fanatical MAGA and apathetic left leaning middle at home in equal measure.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,465
    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
    Gosh, I've just realised that Joe Biden has the privilege of sharing my birthday. Didn't know
    that. The date, not the year, obviously.
    The only remotely famous person I’m aware of that shared my birthday was J. Edgar Hoover. Which isn’t ideal.

    Try Pinochet. And Dominic Cummings.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712
    Time to make the call...

    #Fetterman24

  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 535
    EPG said:

    FPT: Since some of you are interested in climate change, may I recommend Stephen E. Koonin's sober book, "Unsettled".

    Here's his own summary: "Writing this book has been an opportunity to collect and synthesize experiences over a fifteen-year journey in climate and energy. I began by believing we were in a race to save the planet from climate catastrophe. Since then, I've evolved to become a public critic of how The Science of climate science is presented." (p. 249)

    For those impressed by credentials, I'll add that he is a theoretical physicist, was a vice president at Caltech, and "Undersecretary for Science in the U. S. Department of Energy under President Obama".

    (You don't need to be a physicist to understand the book, though you would need to be to follow some of his many references.)

    Excellent, why did we bother with a mainstream scientific consensus then?
    For this reason?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VAZZTjj6yM
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    dixiedean said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    Heathener said:

    Biden would be 86 this time in 6 years which is mid 80's not late 80's

    He stumbles over a few words but seems pretty physically agile. I'd rather have him than a zippy younger nutjob.

    Very good article in today's i about how ageing & how it's a myth that ageing mean irreversible decline.

    https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/how-reverse-age-reset-your-biological-clock-1961196

    And besides, Strom Thurmond was a Senator until he was 101. Marvellous.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond

    Don't be ageist @MikeSmithson

    @Heathener , @Ishmael_Z - I realise Biden was born on 20 November and will therefore be 86⅙ on inauguration day 2028, but when do the mid 80s change into the late 80s? Is it on a person's 87th birthday? Then by symmetry their mid 80s would have to begin on their 83rd birthday. Somehow that doesn't sound right.
    Gosh, I've just realised that Joe Biden has the privilege of sharing my birthday. Didn't know
    that. The date, not the year, obviously.
    The only remotely famous person I’m aware of that shared my birthday was J. Edgar Hoover. Which isn’t ideal.

    Try Pinochet. And Dominic Cummings.
    Dominic Mckenzie Cummings (born 25 November 1971)
    John Edgar Hoover (January 1, 1895 – May 2, 1972)
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    moonshine said:

    OllyT said:

    Sandpit said:

    John Fetterman’s job for the next few months, is to make Biden appear lucid and coherent.

    But seriously, the president is about to turn 80, it’s time to stand aside. The biggest problem with that, is how to stop Kamala Harris becoming the nominee by default.

    DeDantis still likely beats anyone, so long as Trump doesn’t do a Ross Perot and fly solo.

    Not convinced. 3 factors could easily derail DeSantis in a GE

    1. His social conservatism/ abortion views could energise the young and female vote just as it seems to have harmed the GOP this week.

    2. It is not yet clear who his Dem opponent will be and it could result in a much stiffer challenge than an aged Biden would present, and there is no certainty whatsoever that it would be Harris.

    3. You allude to Trump running as an independent and even if he doesn't he is not the sort of person that takes defeat gracefully. He will be a real thorn in DeSantis's side from here on in and his really fanatical supporters may well stay at home if he's not on the ballot on 2024. The issue of getting a conservative majority on the Supreme Court has become irrelevant
    1) “On April 14, 2022, he signed into law a bill that bans elective abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, shortening the period of viability from 24 weeks.”

    So he brought the law in Florida in line with the EU average and is more liberal on the matter than for example Germany.

    2) It’s not obvious there are Democrat politicians ready to break from the field who really would present a significantly stiffer challenge than Biden. Perhaps? I still think the Democrats best chance is a celebrity candidate rather than a serving politician. Michelle Obama or Matthew McConaughey. But they’re not yet desperate enough to cast aside the career politicians.

    3) No Trump on the ballot might keep the fanatical MAGA and apathetic left leaning middle at home in equal measure.

    Point 1 is like saying Bernie Sanders just wants a Nordic-style social democracy with 60% personal tax rates so therefore he can win in Florida. The USA's a different country with different norms than Europe.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,932
    edited November 10
    Douglas County will give Laxalt a net gain of 2k to 2.5k.

    On its own, nowhere near enough to change previous analysis but question is how much is left in all other rural counties?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,304
    carnforth said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Obviously right. Biden is about as lucid as my Mum, who is - sadly - not very lucid. And my Mum does not intend to run America for another six years

    Biden would be 82 at the next election, and 86 when he leaves office. Ridiculous. He can barely talk coherently, now

    I'm doing the same 'my mum' mental comparison, funnily enough. Biden's different league. My mum's still alert and mobile but no way she could have got a big infrastructure bill through a divided Congress, or led a complex, strong but nuanced western response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
    Are you sure Biden did either of those things himself? I mean spearheaded them rather than merely acquiesced to them?
    Pretty sure yes. Doesn't strike me as a passenger or a puppet. The risk is more future decline than how he is now.
This discussion has been closed.