A bad night for the Lib Dems. They did not win in a ward in Burnley which they won with over 50% of the vote in May and lost a seat in Kingston to an Independent who campaigned on an anti-Muslim ticket (the Lib Dem candidate was a Muslim).
If the Russians simply fold and surrender in Kherson (especially if they lose 5-20K troops) I will be tempted to conclude my worst fears were overly frit. ie: Russia is simply losing, and losing badly (indeed tragically) and has no idea how to respond, and is too scared to do anything with WMD, and is now probably seeking a peaceful way out of a colossal geopolitical disaster
Possible futures include:
1. Russia seeks to escalate to open war with NATO.
The Norway story seems to be subject to a blackout right now. That could change and fast. Second guess for a trigger would be Turkey. Or it could be both - for that authentic 1960 feeling.
China would also have to come off the fence, to the extent that it's on it now.
2. A new government takes over in Moscow that
a) arrests leading figures in the current government, accusing them of acting as western assets when they started the SMO in February (that could really happen), and
b) takes the country autarkic [*].
That would probably be without Putin (although a comparison with Gaddafi is unnecessary), but it could also be with Putin still in office if he goes full-on Night of the Long Knives. Everyone talks about the FSB - well this would be them doing their stuff, big time.
* Although not necessarily more autarchic than it is now.
If the Russians simply fold and surrender in Kherson (especially if they lose 5-20K troops) I will be tempted to conclude my worst fears were overly frit. ie: Russia is simply losing, and losing badly (indeed tragically) and has no idea how to respond, and is too scared to do anything with WMD, and is now probably seeking a peaceful way out of a colossal geopolitical disaster
Great thread from Mike Martin on tonight’s unfolding events in Kherson
I wonder if those Twitter rumours from about a fortnight ago were true: Putin asked his army to go nuclear (or close to it) but they refused, or the chain of command broke down, so Russia now faces simple and abject defeat, with no way back, and no means of fighting back
IF that is the case (ins'allah it is true) then Putin himself must now be in serious peril. He's killed 75,000 young Russian men, grievously crippled 150,000 more, and severely depleted the Russian Treasury AND made Russia a pariah state for a generation - and for nothing, Literally nothing
The war was always a terrible error (how did he expect to rule Ukraine?!) but the error may be morally corrected sooner rather than later
I arrived at Nice airport at the same time as a large aircraft that had arrived from Monastir. Getting through Nice airport used to be only limited by the speed you could walk. To day with non EU passports we were in a holding pen with hundreds of Tunisians who needed to have their possports checked and checked thoroughly. If we haven't caught Covid we've been lucky.
Could one of you fucking thick Brexiteers explain in whose interest it is that real people have to wait for hours in a pointless queue so you can can pleasure yourselves with shiny Non EU black passports?
But also: you have a house in Villefranche and have lived there - on and off - many years. Are you really so dim that you did not thereby apply for French Residency pre-Brexit, thus avoiding all this? You had about 5 years warning, or more
I mean, JFC. You have a reputation for a low-watt IQ but that is quite special
To be fair to Roger (despite his implication Tunisians aren't real people) residency rather than citizenship would not help: he would queue in the same line but with his British passport and french residency card.
He had time enough to get a passport, surely
And I do love the "real people" jibe
REAL PEOPLE = ROGER
Tunisians = UNREAL
Quite an interesting observation about the Tunisians, who come from somewhere that used to be a French protectorate, having to slum it in the queue with Roger, when they would probably once have been in the 'French Commonwealth' queue and gone through first. British airports once had a Commonwealth queue - stopped when we joined the EEC.
A bad night for the Lib Dems. They did not win in a ward in Burnley which they won with over 50% of the vote in May and lost a seat in Kingston to an Independent who campaigned on an anti-Muslim ticket (the Lib Dem candidate was a Muslim).
A bad night for the country if that’s what gets someone elected.
I arrived at Nice airport at the same time as a large aircraft that had arrived from Monastir. Getting through Nice airport used to be only limited by the speed you could walk. To day with non EU passports we were in a holding pen with hundreds of Tunisians who needed to have their possports checked and checked thoroughly. If we haven't caught Covid we've been lucky.
Could one of you fucking thick Brexiteers explain in whose interest it is that real people have to wait for hours in a pointless queue so you can can pleasure yourselves with shiny Non EU black passports?
That's a really f*cking nasty way that you speak about Tunisians, as though they're a bunch of dirty disease spreaders. Tunisia had 15% fewer deaths with SARSCov2 per 1m population than Britain.
I arrived at Nice airport at the same time as a large aircraft that had arrived from Monastir. Getting through Nice airport used to be only limited by the speed you could walk. To day with non EU passports we were in a holding pen with hundreds of Tunisians who needed to have their possports checked and checked thoroughly. If we haven't caught Covid we've been lucky.
Could one of you fucking thick Brexiteers explain in whose interest it is that real people have to wait for hours in a pointless queue so you can can pleasure yourselves with shiny Non EU black passports?
That's a really f*cking nasty way that you speak about Tunisians, as though they're a bunch of dirty disease spreaders. Tunisia had 15% fewer deaths with SARSCov2 per 1m population than Britain.
This exact same story was doing the rounds about 3 or 4 weeks ago.
Yes, for sure
It could be read as a sign of increasing Russian desperation
"Help, we're losing, let's pretend we're thinking about nukes again"
If the defeat in Kherson is as bad as it is seems - in the fog of war - Putin must surely be in trouble. The war cannot be won, there are only degrees of humiliating defeat from here on (and getting worse) he has sacrificed 75,000 men (and more) for absolutely nothing. And he - or his army - are too scared to use WMDs esp nukes
That's how a regime gets overthrown. Total and obvious military failure
The guy who plays John Major in the Crown is bloody useless.
Generally, the casting of the royals themselves has been excellent.
The Prime Ministers, not so much, with the exception of Lithgow’s Churchill. Anderson’s Thatcher was notable and unforgettable but ultimately an over-the-top caricature.
They should have asked Rory Bremner to do it. He was brilliant at impersonating Major on his 90s comedy show.
BBC Twitter hinting that Putin is in trouble, within Russia
O, Let it be so. Toss that mad fucker out of a window. Please
Maybe Putin being deposed would stop China invading Taiwan.
Plausibly the outcome of the Special Military Operation has already stopped it.
IIUC lessons from Russia are very influential to China in teaching them what not to do, this is one of the reasons they're not trying to transition to a western-style democracy.
I've not been watching I'm A Celebrity. But Hancock is clearly making the news and seems to be pretty resilient. So worth a small punt at current odds I think. I've had £20 at 25/1.
This exact same story was doing the rounds about 3 or 4 weeks ago.
Yes, for sure
It could be read as a sign of increasing Russian desperation
"Help, we're losing, let's pretend we're thinking about nukes again"
If the defeat in Kherson is as bad as it is seems - in the fog of war - Putin must surely be in trouble. The war cannot be won, there are only degrees of humiliating defeat from here on (and getting worse) he has sacrificed 75,000 men (and more) for absolutely nothing. And he - or his army - are too scared to use WMDs esp nukes
That's how a regime gets overthrown. Total and obvious military failure
I have been saying on here for months that Putin cannot use nuclear weapons and that this war will inevitably lead to his removal. I wish people would start listening to people who know Ukrainian and Russian politics.
I arrived at Nice airport at the same time as a large aircraft that had arrived from Monastir. Getting through Nice airport used to be only limited by the speed you could walk. To day with non EU passports we were in a holding pen with hundreds of Tunisians who needed to have their possports checked and checked thoroughly. If we haven't caught Covid we've been lucky.
Could one of you fucking thick Brexiteers explain in whose interest it is that real people have to wait for hours in a pointless queue so you can can pleasure yourselves with shiny Non EU black passports?
That's a really f*cking nasty way that you speak about Tunisians, as though they're a bunch of dirty disease spreaders. Tunisia had 15% fewer deaths with SARSCov2 per 1m population than Britain.
That's our Roger, the ultimate Remoaner
It's also a bit stupid. Brexit means we don't get to queue in the EU line when we go to the EU. But it means we shouldn't have to wait in line with non-Brits when returning to the UK, regardless of where we have gone.
If the Russians simply fold and surrender in Kherson (especially if they lose 5-20K troops) I will be tempted to conclude my worst fears were overly frit. ie: Russia is simply losing, and losing badly (indeed tragically) and has no idea how to respond, and is too scared to do anything with WMD, and is now probably seeking a peaceful way out of a colossal geopolitical disaster
Great thread from Mike Martin on tonight’s unfolding events in Kherson
I wonder if those Twitter rumours from about a fortnight ago were true: Putin asked his army to go nuclear (or close to it) but they refused, or the chain of command broke down, so Russia now faces simple and abject defeat, with no way back, and no means of fighting back
IF that is the case (ins'allah it is true) then Putin himself must now be in serious peril. He's killed 75,000 young Russian men, grievously crippled 150,000 more, and severely depleted the Russian Treasury AND made Russia a pariah state for a generation - and for nothing, Literally nothing
The war was always a terrible error (how did he expect to rule Ukraine?!) but the error may be morally corrected sooner rather than later
BBC Twitter hinting that Putin is in trouble, within Russia
O, Let it be so. Toss that mad fucker out of a window. Please
Maybe Putin being deposed would stop China invading Taiwan.
Not if his successor were to start a war with NATO. In the event of a Russia-NATO war, the PRC would attack Taiwan within months of it beginning, or weeks. Total kaput for Taiwan.
It's ideal to have your main enemy be fighting another major war when he has to decide whether or not to fight you too to try to stop you getting what you want. If he decides to do nothing, fine. If he decides to go for it, he won't be giving you his full attention.
Of course the rulers of China want a Russia-NATO war. This is a given. Similarly the rulers of Russia would love a US-Chinese war. And the rulers of the US and satellites would love a Russo-Chinese war (which isn't going to happen).
I arrived at Nice airport at the same time as a large aircraft that had arrived from Monastir. Getting through Nice airport used to be only limited by the speed you could walk. To day with non EU passports we were in a holding pen with hundreds of Tunisians who needed to have their possports checked and checked thoroughly. If we haven't caught Covid we've been lucky.
Could one of you fucking thick Brexiteers explain in whose interest it is that real people have to wait for hours in a pointless queue so you can can pleasure yourselves with shiny Non EU black passports?
That's a really f*cking nasty way that you speak about Tunisians, as though they're a bunch of dirty disease spreaders. Tunisia had 15% fewer deaths with SARSCov2 per 1m population than Britain.
I made no comment about Tunisians. My ire was directed at thick as pigshit Brexiteers of which I imagine you are one. Belonging to the EU meant we had free and simple movement around our own continent. Now thanks to people like you we have had travel restrictions imposed and for what? What exactly have you achieved?
For a Brexiteer to suggest I have problems with 'others' is almost funny. You who marched behind Farage! You obviously don't travel much either. One of the reasons people choose to go to certain places in these days of Covid is so you DONT get stuck in confined spaces with large numbers of people whether they be Tunisians or thick Brexiteers.
Comments
1. Russia seeks to escalate to open war with NATO.
The Norway story seems to be subject to a blackout right now. That could change and fast. Second guess for a trigger would be Turkey. Or it could be both - for that authentic 1960 feeling.
China would also have to come off the fence, to the extent that it's on it now.
2. A new government takes over in Moscow that
a) arrests leading figures in the current government, accusing them of acting as western assets when they started the SMO in February (that could really happen), and
b) takes the country autarkic [*].
That would probably be without Putin (although a comparison with Gaddafi is unnecessary), but it could also be with Putin still in office if he goes full-on Night of the Long Knives. Everyone talks about the FSB - well this would be them doing their stuff, big time.
* Although not necessarily more autarchic than it is now.
IF that is the case (ins'allah it is true) then Putin himself must now be in serious peril. He's killed 75,000 young Russian men, grievously crippled 150,000 more, and severely depleted the Russian Treasury AND made Russia a pariah state for a generation - and for nothing, Literally nothing
The war was always a terrible error (how did he expect to rule Ukraine?!) but the error may be morally corrected sooner rather than later
O, Let it be so. Toss that mad fucker out of a window. Please
https://twitter.com/L3RN3R_05/status/1590861302435819520?s=20&t=5jJBs44TMFKTZcCosKKcpg
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
58m
⚡️Bloomberg: Russia is covertly checking its bomb shelters.
Russian state workers are quietly checking basements and other shelters not used since Soviet times, people familiar with the efforts told Bloomberg.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1590848830769172485?s=20&t=5jJBs44TMFKTZcCosKKcpg
It could be read as a sign of increasing Russian desperation
"Help, we're losing, let's pretend we're thinking about nukes again"
If the defeat in Kherson is as bad as it is seems - in the fog of war - Putin must surely be in trouble. The war cannot be won, there are only degrees of humiliating defeat from here on (and getting worse) he has sacrificed 75,000 men (and more) for absolutely nothing. And he - or his army - are too scared to use WMDs esp nukes
That's how a regime gets overthrown. Total and obvious military failure
To Truss: “its’s mad, prime ministers don’t get rid of their chancellors!”
Like, regardless of how much I fk up, you CAN’T get rid of me! It’s not the done thing!
The sheer sense of entitlement is astonishing.
The Tory party is rotten.
She might even have been forced out sooner if she clung on to Kwazi.
Also, I don’t trust these hindsight/foresight narratives. High chance he’s bullshitting.
IIUC lessons from Russia are very influential to China in teaching them what not to do, this is one of the reasons they're not trying to transition to a western-style democracy.
It's ideal to have your main enemy be fighting another major war when he has to decide whether or not to fight you too to try to stop you getting what you want. If he decides to do nothing, fine. If he decides to go for it, he won't be giving you his full attention.
Of course the rulers of China want a Russia-NATO war. This is a given. Similarly the rulers of Russia would love a US-Chinese war. And the rulers of the US and satellites would love a Russo-Chinese war (which isn't going to happen).
"Let's you and him fight".
For a Brexiteer to suggest I have problems with 'others' is almost funny. You who marched behind Farage! You obviously don't travel much either. One of the reasons people choose to go to certain places in these days of Covid is so you DONT get stuck in confined spaces with large numbers of people whether they be Tunisians or thick Brexiteers.